BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.25

At its best, horse racing Twitter is a wonderful place where passionate people can exchange ideas and philosophies and have meaningful conversations. At its worst, it’s a cesspool, one I can’t say I missed too much when I took a break earlier this summer during a tough time.

On Friday, news broke that Twitter/X overlord Elon Musk is moving to remove the “block” function from the platform. I try not to use that much, unless there’s a very good reason for it. My general philosophy is that you can disagree with me as much as you want on a professional level, but if you get personal (or, worst of all, invoke people I love very much), there’s the door.

Musk’s proposal would be an absolutely horrendous move that doesn’t just turn a blind eye to harassment, but tacitly encourages it. Users of that social media platform shouldn’t be subject to the worst of their ilk, and thankfully, Apple’s App Store seems to agree given their terms and conditions.

Should Twitter become a horrible place to communicate, you can find me on Instagram and Threads at @142winners. If Musk’s move comes to fruition, it’s entirely possible I migrate there full-time.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My best bet of the day scratched, which cancelled my action.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late Pick Four, which starts in the eighth. My $1 ticket goes as follows: 1,6,7 with 2,3,9,10 with 2,5,9 with 10.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday: 6-for-10
Meet: 49-for-165

Best Bet: Henson, Race 11
Longshot: A La Carte, Race 5

R1

Risk It
Middle Market
Hunt Ball

#1 RISK IT (4-1): Hammered for $500,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale and sports a strong workout pattern ahead of his unveiling in the Saturday opener. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a first-time starter, but there’s enough to suggest he could be a runner; #4 MIDDLE MARKET (6-1): Sold for $250,000 as a weanling and has been working consistently for Chad Brown. His lone gate drill jumps off the page, and he’s a contender if he runs back to that; #3 HUNT BALL (3-1): Has a world-class pedigree, being by Into Mischief and out of Grade 1 winner Dance Card. That makes him a half-brother to Cody’s Wish and Endorsed, so he’s got every chance to be a very nice horse. The question is, is he ready to run first time out?

R2

Blast Furnace
Walley World
Dancing Groom

#8 BLAST FURNACE (5-1): Ran into a couple of strong fields earlier this season and makes his first start for new connections here. The stretchout to two turns is an unknown, but he’s got an experience edge over most of this group that could prove helpful; #6 WALLEY WORLD (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and is bred to love the turf. This son of More Than Ready makes a lot of sense in this spot, and he’d be a logical favorite; #5 DANCING GROOM (6-1): Was one-paced in his debut earlier this year, but he’s bred to go longer than he went that day. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and improvement seems logical at second asking.

R3

Obrigada (MTO)
Weaver entry
Georgees Spirit

WEAVER ENTRY (7/2): Both #1 MY SWEET AFFAIR and #1A MISS DOMINA can win. The former gets significant class relief after several stakes races in a row, while the latter loves this turf course and comes in off a win at this route; #2 GEORGEES SPIRIT (9/2): Has run once since November, but gets Lasix for the first time in this spot and has back form that fits against these foes. She’s a contender if she’s ready to run; #8 YOU GOTTA HAVE FUN (12-1): Is bred up and down for turf, makes her first start for Mike Maker, and comes in off of two wins against lesser company. Maybe these waters are too deep, but this is also what she’s bred to do, and I think she’s worth a flyer in the exotics at a big price.

R4

No More Talk
Ensign Parker
Handsome Cat

#10 NO MORE TALK (4-1): Goes to a different barn ahead of this event, which doubles as already his third start of the meet. He’s got back form from this past spring that would beat this bunch, and he should get an ideal stalking trip; #1 ENSIGN PARKER (6-1): Beat a weaker field last time out in the best effort he’s put forth in quite some time. He can win if he repeats that effort, and he’d benefit from any moisture left in the track from Friday’s deluge; #2 HANDSOME CAT (9/2): Takes a significant class drop for a barn that’s starting to heat up. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but he fits on figures given some of the races he ran against better horses earlier this season.

R5

A La Carte
Rodriguez entry
Durante

#5 A LA CARTE (8-1): Faltered when fourth at this level last time out, but adds blinkers in this spot and comes in off of a string of exceptional workouts. Given that he’ll be a bit of a price here, I’ll gladly take a swing and hope the equipment change wakes him up; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (7/5): Both #1 LAFITTE’S FLEET and #1A DAUFUSKIE ISLAND can win. I slightly prefer the latter, who ran a gigantic race two back at Belmont and would be very tough if he makes the lead early on; #8 DURANTE (3-1): Comes in off of two romps at Los Alamitos and Penn National (yes, you read that correctly), and when David Jacobson gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there. This is certainly a class test, but he fits on figures and draws a cushy outside post.

R6

Arisaema
Leadership Ability
Lem Me Drink

#11 ARISAEMA (3-1): Needs a scratch to run but has a big chance if she draws in. She had an excuse last time out given a slow start, but was beaten less than two lengths that day and may not have to improve much to beat these; #9 LEADERSHIP ABILITY (5/2): Is a likely favorite for powerhouse connections despite a layoff of nearly 11 months. She drops in for a tag off the bench, and we’ve never seen her go two turns, but it does seem like they found a soft spot for her return; #10 LEM ME DRINK (5-1): Has had plenty of chances, but her last two races, while maiden claimers, turned out to be pretty tough spots. Those two winners have turned out to be stakes-caliber horses, and this field seems significantly weaker.

R7

Aspray
Surge Capacity
Prerequisite

#2 ASPRAY (7/2): Cuts back to what’s probably her best trip in the Grade 2 Lake Placid and is one of several contenders from the Chad Brown barn. She went 3-for-3 before a dud in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, where she didn’t have much pace to chase going 10 furlongs; #7 SURGE CAPACITY (3-1): Is 2-for-2 with a win in the Grade 3 Lake George to her credit. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which gives Joel Rosario plenty of options; #8 PREREQUISITE (9/2): Did everything but win the Belmont Oaks, when she led most of the way before settling for second. Irad Ortiz, Jr., shows up here, which is noteworthy, but I don’t think she’ll be alone up front, which could hurt her chances.

R8

Nostalgic
Movie Moxy
Mosienko

#7 NOSTALGIC (3-1): Came off the bench running last time out, when she closed from last and finished just a neck back. She hasn’t won in quite a while, but that last-out effort indicates she’s improved from age three to age four, and it’s logical to expect another step forward second off the layoff; #1 MOVIE MOXY (4-1): Has won two of her last three starts and does her best work at this one-mile distance. She has enough speed to establish position on the inside early, which could prove very helpful; #6 MOSIENKO (10-1): Has spent most of her career going shorter, but she won at a mile earlier this year at Aqueduct and loves Saratoga. Luis Saez rode her to victory last time out a few weeks ago, and he sees fit to climb aboard again here.

R9

Wet Paint
Defining Purpose
Julia Shining

#2 WET PAINT (2-1): Earned her first Grade 1 win in the Coaching Club American Oaks earlier this summer and runs as though she’ll love the 10-furlong distance of the Grade 1 Alabama. She should have plenty of pace to run at, too, and she’s obviously a major player; #10 DEFINING PURPOSE (10-1): Pulled off a 20-1 upset in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland and most recently annexed the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks. She’s got enough early speed to clear most of this field early on, and we may get some value at or near the morning line price; #3 JULIA SHINING (5-1): Came to the races last year with as strong a pedigree as you’ll ever see and runs like she wants every part of this distance. She was third in the Ashland last time out and comes in off a steady string of local drills.

R10

Napoleonic War
Whisper Not
Verbal

#2 NAPOLEONIC WAR (7/2): Came in off of a very long break last time and may have moved a bit early on that occasion. He adds blinkers second off the bench for Chad Brown and has every right to move forward; #5 WHISPER NOT (9/2): Broke a drought of more than two years last time out, when he overcame a wide post and sprang a 14-1 upset. I’m not sure he’ll get as lively a pace as he got that day, but a repeat of the speed figure he earned in that spot would give him a big chance; #9 VERBAL (5/2): Had an excuse last time out, when he was moved up to second after a rough trip. Like my top choice, he also adds blinkers, but he’ll have to work out a trip from a pretty tricky post.

R11

Henson
Majestic Arc
Kern River

#10 HENSON (8/5): Looms very large in the Saturday finale off the trainer switch to Brad Cox. His lone prior effort was a third in an off-the-turf race earlier this summer, and if he doesn’t win what seems like a very weak race for the level, I don’t know who does; #7 MAJESTIC ARC (15-1): Boasts a solid work tab ahead of his career debut and is bred to handle turf. He’s by Ironicus, his dam is kin to a few nice runners, and perhaps most importantly, he doesn’t need to be a world-beater to run well here at a big price; #8 KERN RIVER (3-1): Has shown speed in two prior starts and was claimed last time out by Mike Maker. He’s probably the one they’ll have to run down late; the question is, how long can he go up front given what we’ve seen in both of his previous outings?