Andrew Champagne

Santa Anita, California Racing, And Numbers That Don’t Tell The Story

Posted on 5 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

The Alameda County Fair opens Friday. For most of the next month, those in Northern California can stop by to enjoy concerts, rides, fried food, and the general…well, fair fare.

What we won’t see, for the second straight summer, is the use of the oldest one-mile dirt track in America. Thoroughbred races in Northern California, of course, haven’t been contested since the fall of 2024.

I wrote about this when it happened, and time hasn’t healed the wounds. As if to throw salt in those wounds, Santa Anita Park’s “end of the meet” press release cited strong handle and attendance. The popular refrain when Northern California racing was “consolidated” was that doing so would save the product in the south.

Before we go much further, a necessary series of reminders: I moved west to work at Santa Anita in 2013. It’s one of the few remaining cathedrals in horse racing, a sport that’s unquestionably better when Santa Anita is humming. Without that move, lots of things change for me, both personally and professionally, and not in a positive way. For those reasons, and a few others, I want Santa Anita to succeed.

Having said that, I’ve looked at the numbers. For what they are, they’re…fine. However, there wasn’t nearly as much as there could have been.

Golden Gate Fields, at the time of its closing, handled roughly $3 million per day. Those were the expectations hoisted upon the ill-fated Golden State Racing venture, which ran Pleasanton in the fall of 2024. When the racing product didn’t meet those expectations (getting to a bit over $1 million per day by the end of the meet after a very rough start), future meets were doomed.

In 2024-25, the first Santa Anita meet without Northern California “competition,” handle rose 10 percent from 2023-24, and field size saw a five-percent bump. It’s…something, but it’s not a full absorption of the Golden Gate handle, by any means. This past meet, all-sources handle remained consistent. Per Horse Racing Nation, average daily handle topped $9 million for the sixth consecutive season. “Consistent” is good, but it shows the closure of Golden Gate Fields and the other NorCal tracks wasn’t the shot in the arm it was sold as.

This prompts a few questions, the first being…where did that Golden Gate handle actually go? The new “B-circuit” for Southern California is in Arizona, but while Turf Paradise’s renovations and upgrades have gotten rave reviews, a May Thoroughbred Daily News article says all-sources handle was up just one percent in a year-over-year comparison.

When Northern California ceased racing, Santa Anita officials made multiple public statements that included promises to NorCal horsepeople. They promised to run races for horses who had been stabled on that circuit, and they delivered on that promise…for a few months. After the first few months of the 2024-25 meet, those races disappeared. Many horses and horsepeople went to other locales (such as Emerald Downs, which had a fantastic 2025 season by basically absorbing handle left behind by the fair tracks), and remaining thoroughbreds from the former “B-circuit” that now had to go against top-tier stock generally ran like…well, horses from a former “B-circuit” that now had to go against top-tier stock.

Santa Anita also boasted that the influx of horses would even allow a return to four-day weeks at the Great Race Place. This never materialized.

Finally, while this provided a slight boost to numbers, consolidating racing to one circuit didn’t solve many of the biggest problems pertaining to California’s industry. Farms in the state aren’t breeding as many horses. Races in the state aren’t funded by subsidies or aided by other arms of the gambling industry. It’s hard to ship horses west to compete, and purses for certain races just aren’t what they are in equal-stature races elsewhere in the country.

I’ve made no secret that Pleasanton was my adopted home track (the folks at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame even enlisted me to write about the fairs in “The Racetracks of America,” something I’ll always be proud of). In a sport where it’s hard to be a fan sometimes, Pleasanton and other fair tracks like Santa Rosa, Fresno, and Ferndale made it easy (Sacramento, not so much; I’m sorry, but that place was a furnace in the summer). With all due respect to tracks like Saratoga, which have plenty of draws for kids and newbies to be introduced to the game we love, there was no lower barrier to entry for fans anywhere in the country than at Northern California fair tracks.

My friend Dennis Miller, with whom I co-hosted daily handicapping seminars outside the Pleasanton grandstand, wrote an article for a local publication this week. It featured some notes from a chat he had with owner, breeder, and NorCal racing ambassador George Schmitt, a truly great guy. The article expresses reason for optimism, which is rare in this industry of late.

Should something materialize at Pleasanton and other fair tracks in the northern part of the Golden State, nobody will be happier about it than yours truly. All of this, however, begs a final, damning question…with a year and a half of hindsight, what good did the cessation of horse racing in Northern California actually do for anything that matters?

If anyone can come up with a positive answer, I’d love to hear it.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Sunday, June 7th

Posted on 18 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $245.65

We’ll be back in a few weeks for the summer meet, which this year goes 46 days, not the traditional 40. However, let me finish off the week with a simple reminder: Enjoy the magic of Saratoga, because it’s not that way elsewhere.

I’ll be spending most of Sunday in Pleasanton, California, just down the road from the Alameda County Fair. Those fairgrounds house my adopted home track, which, along with the rest of Northern California, will be without racing for a second straight year.

I could go on and on about this situation, but I only have so much space. Simply put, savor what you have this week as the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival draws to a close. Racing fans in too many other areas are seeing their tracks wither and die, and that’s a real shame.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Book’em Danno wasn’t a huge price, but he wasn’t favored in the Grade 3 True North, and we cashed. A $30 win bet returned $85.80, a $5 double ending in the Jaipur returned $104.85, and we got back $190.65 after an initial $50 investment.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract value from my best bet of the day. That’s #9 BOOKED in the sixth, and I’ll start with a $50 win bet on him. In addition, I’ll have him singled to finish $10 doubles that start in the fifth with #2 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER, #9 DILIELLO, and #10 JOKER ON FIRE. See you in July!

TOTAL WAGERED: $80.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Booked, Race 6
Longshot: New York Special, Race 2

Timia (MTO)
All of It
Neshika

#2 ALL OF IT (5/2): Didn’t do a single thing wrong in her debut back in April, where she routed a field of overmatched maidens despite rating behind a very moderate pace. This is a jump up in class, but improvement is logical at second asking and she could be a good one; #5 NESHIKA (9/2): Ran well in her first start off a six-month break, as she hit the front in the stretch before settling for a close second. She gets Lasix for the first time here, and Flavien Prat stays aboard when he likely had several options; #6 COSMIC CANDY GIRL (6-1): Hasn’t finished worse than third in six career tries, and she narrowly missed at this route a season ago. She’s got some tactical speed and could sit an ideal trip beneath Kendrick Carmouche.

New York Special
Soaring Spirit
Coach of the Year

#2 NEW YORK SPECIAL (6-1): Debuted at a tricky seven-furlong route, but showed some speed and ran a good second. Her pedigree says she wants distance and that she should be able to handle the turf, so this two-turn route on the grass should hit her right between the eyes; #7 SOARING SPIRIT (7/2): Was a close second in her unveiling downstate for high-percentage connections and isn’t a bad favorite. She’s another that could step forward with a start under her belt; #4 COACH OF THE YEAR (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since November but returns for a barn that can get horses ready to run off the bench. She may be a bit pace-dependent, but she gets Lasix for the first time and she showed improvement from her first start to her second.

Scottish Lassie
Filly Freedom
Limes Don’t Lie

#3 SCOTTISH LASSIE (4/5): Comes back off a long break after a 2025 campaign that included a runaway score in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks. The layoff is a concern, but we know she loves this track and she’s been working steadily since March. If she’s anywhere close to ready, she’s going to be very tough; #5 FILLY FREEDOM (4-1): Broke through last time out with a solid, professional win going seven furlongs downstate. This feels like the right route for her, as she’s got enough tactical speed to sit close without needing the lead in order to run well; #1 LIMES DON’T LIE (6-1): Has had some gate issues in her career, and the rail draw isn’t ideal for a runner with that sort of history. However, she’s never been worse than third in five career tries, and perhaps she needed her May return given the nine-month gap in her running lines.

Ignite the Light (MTO)
Zulu Kingdom
Salamis

#2 ZULU KINGDOM (4/5): Earned his second Grade 1 win last time out at Keeneland and looks to have the nuts in the Grade 3 Poker. One of his two career defeats came by DQ here last year (in a truly puzzling decision that still baffles me to this day), but provided he avoids situations like that, it’ll be hard for these rivals to top him; #7 SALAMIS (5/2): Is the “other” Chad Brown, and he’s a Grade 1 winner, too. He took the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar in November, and while he hasn’t raced since, he’s certainly eligible to improve going from age three to age four; #4 CAPITOL HILL (8-1): Comes back into stakes company after back-to-back allowance wins. He may be a bit pace-dependent, which is a problem given how the turf has played this week, but he looks like an improving sort who’ll be going the right way late.

Joker On Fire
Truman’s Commander
Diliello

#10 JOKER ON FIRE (7/2): Has found his footing on turf with a two-back score followed by a solid second on the step up in class. The far-outside post isn’t ideal, but he’s also not facing any world-beaters in here, and it’s possible he moves forward second off the bench; #2 TRUMAN’S COMMANDER (10-1): Is worth a look at a price given his back class. He hasn’t raced since January, but he kept solid company as a 2-year-old, has shown some early speed, and seems to be working well for Mark Casse; #9 DILIELLO (12-1): Picked up three checks here a season ago and has since broken his maiden. He’s been off since November, but he gets Lasix for the first time and Tom Morley can get horses like this ready to run.

Booked
Just a Holiday
Beach Sandals

#9 BOOKED (3-1): Didn’t break well in his debut at Churchill, but did enough to salvage second money. He was favored that day, he’s worked well since then, and between his experience edge over many of these and the improved outside draw, I think there’s a ton to like; #3 JUST A HOLIDAY (9/2): Hammered for $800,000 at auction last year at Keeneland and debuts for Wesley Ward, one of the best in the business with first-out 2-year-olds. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because his pedigree, while very strong, hints that he actually wants to go longer than this 5 1/2-furlong route; #6 BEACH SANDALS (6-1): Showed speed in his unveiling before fading to finish second. Casse trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going, and the lone local workout looks solid enough.

Complex Agenda
Gene and Jude
The Paddock Pastor

#1 COMPLEX AGENDA (9/2): Looks like the main speed in here and draws a picture-perfect inside post in his second start off a three-month break. Given how strong early speed has been this week, the gameplan here seems pretty straightforward, and I think he makes every pole a winning one; #3 GENE AND JUDE (7/2): Stomped a field of restricted claimers last time out at Churchill, and he’s hit the board twice in as many starts at the Spa. This is a significant step up the class ladder, but Prat rides back for Mike Maker, and perhaps he’s turned a corner as a 4-year-old; #12 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (6-1): Draws a terrible far-outside post, but he ran well in his 2026 debut given some slow internal fractions. He likely needs a pace to run at, but if he gets one and is able to save any ground, he could come running for a piece of it.

Niche (MTO)
Slay the Day
Cadenza

#4 SLAY THE DAY (6/5): Won the Grade 3 Limestone two back at Keeneland before chasing Cy Fair in the Grade 3 Mamzelle. That one isn’t in this field, and that makes the Grade 3 Soaring Softly a drop in class. If she runs her usual race, she’ll be a handful; #3 CADENZA (4-1): Is 2-for-2 on turf, and one of those wins came at this route back in August. She may be a few lengths back early, but if the early pace is swift, she stands to benefit; #5 KINGSOLVER (8-1): Tried turf for the first time a month ago and was second behind my second choice. It’s possible the grass is what she wants, and her record looks a lot better if you toss her clunker in the Grade 2 Beaumont, which came over a muddy track.

Secured Landing
Mr Skylight
Gatsby

#6 SECURED LANDING (6-1): Has won three in a row and has been very popular at the claiming box. Linda Rice has him now, and he looks like the main speed in here. If he clears and gets comfortable early, he could be hard to reel in; #5 MR SKYLIGHT (10-1): Won as a heavy favorite two back before being left with too much to do last time out. He adds blinkers for new trainer Rob Falcone, and he’s got back races that would give him a chance if he can find that form; #1 GATSBY (9/2): Won two in a row to end 2025 before finishing third in January and going to the sidelines. Those were his first two wins in quite a while, but they came after he was claimed by this barn in August.

R10

Toscano
Long Pour
Mo for the King

#1 TOSCANO (6-1): is a tepid top pick in a wide-open first-level allowance. He was second in a swiftly-run race for the level downstate, and while he was a 4/5 favorite that day, he gets Flavien Prat and has enough speed to establish position from the inside draw; #12 LONG POUR (4-1): Comes back to the state-bred ranks after racing against better foes at Gulfstream and Keeneland. He also gets back to the dirt, which seems like his preferred surface, and he broke his maiden here last year in wire-to-wire fashion; #8 MO FOR THE KING (5-1): Looked very impressive two back against starter allowance foes before flopping against open company. This is probably a weaker spot, and he’s another with early speed at a track where that’s been rewarded.

R11

Irish Goodbye
King Farro
Roadie

#11 IRISH GOODBYE (5/2): Has run second twice at this level downstate and has speed figures that outclass this bunch in the Sunday finale. The outside post helps, as does a sharp recent drill, and this hits me as a formful end to the five-day festival; #4 KING FARRO (4-1): Was rushed to the front after a bobble at the break last time, but still held on for third in his first try since October. He’s fired a recent bullet drill over the Oklahoma track, and he could be sharper second off the bench; #3 ROADIE (10-1): Hasn’t raced in over a year, but goes to Todd Pletcher’s barn and runs after receiving the ultimate equipment change (he’ll race as a first-time gelding). His lone outing to date is a throw-out due to a terrible break, and I think he could be sitting on an improved performance at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Saturday, June 6th (BELMONT DAY)

Posted on 19 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $105

As backup plans go, running the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga has worked out about as well as can be expected. A community that supports horse racing as much as any in the world has rallied around the festival in each of the last three years, and it’s been a blast to watch from afar in my new home of Northern California.

Having said that, allow me to say a word of caution. If anyone out there thinks this is justification to support a longer summer meet on an annual basis, it’s not. This year’s summer meet has been extended to 46 days by the construction. Let’s get Belmont squared away, and then get back to 40-day meets at the Spa without adding more dates and spreading the product too thin.

Saratoga’s special in large part because it doesn’t last long. Let’s not ruin that.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Hero Declared had every chance with a stalking trip but never kicked on in his return to the races. I dropped $50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My biggest play is a “play against.” I’ll try to beat #3 BENTORNATO in the eighth, the Grade 3 True North. I’ll have a $30 win bet on my top pick, #6 BOOK’EM DANNO, and I’ll have $5 doubles starting there with Book’em Danno and #2 IMAGINATION and ending in the ninth (the Grade 1 Jaipur) with #5 REEF RUNNER and #10 MY BOY PRINCE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Book’em Danno, Race 8
Longshot: Trust Fund, Race 6

Cold Spell
Nakoma
Crowning Glory

#4 COLD SPELL (3/5): Looks likely to start the Belmont Day program off on a chalky note. Her debut was a sharp one, she’s worked well since that effort, and that day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win. There’s just not much to nitpick here; #6 NAKOMA (10-1): Ran third in her unveiling on turf downstate and gets Lasix for the first time. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see her move forward at a bit of a price; #7 CROWNING GLORY (8-1): Is a regally-bred filly, being by Uncle Mo and out of top-notch mare Close Hatches. Bill Mott trainees sometimes need a race to get going, but it would be far from shocking if she was a runner.

Senior Officer
Life and Times
Incentive Pay

#9 SENIOR OFFICER (2-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in four starts to date and should be able to sit an ideal trip stalking just off the pace. His last two workouts in Kentucky were both very good, and with this being just his fifth start, he may still have room to move forward; #3 LIFE AND TIMES (9/5): Drops back down in class for this one and cuts back to one turn. His two efforts downstate late last year were fine, but I wonder if he’ll be able to get his preferred trip on the lead against a field that includes others with significant early zip; #4 INCENTIVE PAY (5-1): Improved second off the long layoff to clear his first-level condition last time out and returns to the track where he ran third in the 2024 Grade 1 Hopeful. He showed a bit more tactical speed last time out, and he’s another that’s eligible to improve.

Le Gris (MTO)
Tenacious Leader
Intellect

#6 TENACIOUS LEADER (5-1): Ran fifth last time out, but that came against a field closer to graded stakes company than usual optional claimers. The top three finishers from that race all came back to win, and this one showed plenty of form last fall before going to the sidelines; #8 INTELLECT (6/5): Has tons of back class and figures to be favored, but I have some doubts. It didn’t seem like he had much of an excuse last time at this level, and it was his fifth straight “underneath” finish since coming to America. At his likely short price, I can’t back him on top; #9 CANDYTOWN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November but has shown he can make up ground against talented horses. It seems like there’s some speed signed on, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options.

Steer Clear
Naive Melody
Helen’s Revenge

#3 STEER CLEAR (7/2): Ran well here twice a season ago before fading to fourth in the Grade 1 Frizette, and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been working consistently for three months, though, and if the most recent drill is any indication, she’s ready to run; #2 NAIVE MELODY (3-1): Came off a long layoff with aplomb in April, when she cruised home over state-bred company. This is a tougher spot, but inside speed has been a plus this week at Saratoga, and it wouldn’t be shocking if she’s up top early on; #7 HELEN’S REVENGE (8-1): Comes up the class ladder after three wins in a row for Linda Rice. This isn’t the easiest field for the level, and the track hasn’t played kindly to outside-drawn closers, but she’s clearly in form and has at least shown some tactical speed in the past.

Brunch With Amy (MTO)
Curlin’s Angel
Eponine

#6 CURLIN’S ANGEL (5-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out at Laurel, and she gets considerable class relief. In addition to running against weaker foes, she gets to compete with Lasix, which should move her forward considerably over a course she’s shown an affinity for; #2 EPONINE (3-1): Was one-paced when third in last year’s Grade 2 Lake Placid, and we haven’t seen her since. She’s been training at Woodbine, and the workouts seem solid, but she also hasn’t won since February of 2025, so I’m wary at her likely short price; #8 SCARLETT’S HALO (6-1): Finished third in her 2026 debut, which was her first try since late-September. She should be sharper second off the bench for Chad Brown, who has enlisted Flavien Prat to hop aboard.

Local Knowledge
Sea Strike
Trust Fund

#5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE (5/2): Won professionally at first asking at Keeneland in October but has been on the sidelines since. She’s been working well for Todd Pletcher, though, and if she’s the horse she was in that unveiling, she could easily run her record to 2-for-2; #8 SEA STRIKE (4-1): Was another debut winner, as she rallied from seventh to get the money at Aqueduct in late-April. She didn’t break well that day, but she overcame the slow start without much of an issue. She may need to break sharper against this bunch, but there’s also a lot of speed in here, too, and that could help her; #12 TRUST FUND (30-1): Merits a look at a bonkers price. He loves Saratoga and has historically done his best running late. With the likely race shape, I won’t be surprised if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big number.

Segesta
Classic Q
Mandanaba

#3 SEGESTA (7/5): Comes into the Grade 1 Just a Game off of back-to-back wins at this level. Her misfire in last year’s renewal was likely due to the yielding turf course, which she doesn’t figure to see on Saturday. She seems probable to sit her preferred “stalk and pounce” trip, and that would make her very dangerous; #1 CLASSIC Q (6-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. If she’s able to get comfortable, she could get brave and be tough to catch as the field turns for home; #4 MANDANABA (9/2): Ships in from Europe and goes second off the bench for a very, very strong outfit. She’s Grade 1-placed in her native France, and she’s run up against some heavy hitters over there. It wouldn’t be shocking if she fits in with these.

Book’em Danno
Imagination
Bentornato

#6 BOOK’EM DANNO (2-1): Was a hard-luck second in his 2026 debut downstate in the Grade 2 Carter, but I think he takes a step forward here in the Grade 3 True North. He’s 4-for-5 over this track, including a win in last year’s renewal. If he’s the horse he was a year ago, which seems likely, I’d argue he should be favored; #2 IMAGINATION (4-1): Comes in for Bob Baffert and may have been a bit jet-lagged when fourth in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs. That was a fairly quick turnaround after a trip to Saudi Arabia. If Baffert has him right, last year’s runner-up in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint could be live; #3 BENTORNATO (8/5): Merits respect, but I have some questions. This barn has cooled off considerably following a monster year in 2025, and the last two works at Churchill, while fine, don’t jump off the page. Maybe he makes me look silly, but I’ll try to beat him.

Reef Runner
My Boy Prince
Ag Bullet

#5 REEF RUNNER (4-1): Is well-traveled, having won in Saudi Arabia before a fourth-place finish in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. He comes in here off of several excellent drills in Florida, and he figures to get the super-firm turf course he relishes in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 1 Jaipur; #10 MY BOY PRINCE (5-1): Came a bit too late with his run when fourth in the Grade 2 Turf Sprint at Churchill last time out. Prior to that, he won the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland, and he seems to be coming into form at five for Mark Casse; #6 AG BULLET (3-1): Makes her first start since November, and her 2025 campaign included a win in this race. The layoff is a question mark, but John Velazquez knows her well and she’s got tactical speed without necessarily needing the lead, which could be valuable.

R10

Crude Velocity
Englishman
Gilded Bandit

#6 CRUDE VELOCITY (9/5): Has done nothing wrong so far, going 3-for-3 ahead of a try in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He ran very, very fast to take the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile five weeks ago, and if he’s the same horse here, I think he’ll be tough to top; #7 ENGLISHMAN (3-1): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick last time out and ran well, but had to settle for second money. Perhaps the cutback to seven furlongs will help him, as he looked fantastic in two sprint wins before that effort; #1 GILDED BANDIT (8-1): Has shown an ability to rate and pass horses, which could help in a race heavy on early zip. He’ll run without Lasix, which is a concern, but his two-back bullet here hints that he’s doing well and he should be going the right way late.

R11

Nysos
Saudi Crown
Journalism

#1 NYSOS (9/5): Ran a close second to Forever Young in the Group 1 Saudi Cup, and there’s no shame at all running second to that one. The Grade 1 Met Mile has been the target all along for this one, and the inside draw only makes me more bullish. If he gets the desired stalking trip, he’ll loom large; #4 SAUDI CROWN (8-1): Has shown he’s tough when he gets to the lead, and his last-out score in the Grade 3 Commonwealth at Keeneland was sharp. He figures to dictate terms early on, and if the track is playing kindly to speed, he could throw down a stiff challenge turning for home; #7 JOURNALISM (5/2): Is impossible to dislike as a consistent, hard-trying colt, but the post position is a concern. Outside posts just don’t do well out of the Wilson chute, and it’s also fair to wonder if he’s plateaued. He may need to improve to win this, and whether or not he’s capable of another step forward is a fair thing to ponder.

R12

Rhetorical
Bright Picture
Test Score

#7 RHETORICAL (2-1): Made every pole a winning one in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and is a logical choice in the Grade 1 Manhattan. He doesn’t need the lead, but his tactical speed may mean he winds up there anyway, and giving a talented horse like this an easy trip usually leads to good things; #6 BRIGHT PICTURE (3-1): Comes over from France and has competed against some of his country’s best horses. He’s won two stakes this year and run second in another, and if you’re not familiar with trainer Andre Fabre, look up some of the races he’s won over the years; #2 TEST SCORE (12-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out, and if he gets back to his usual form here, I don’t think he’s without a shot. He’s a two-time Grade 1 winner that has run well over this turf course, and if you draw a line through the aforementioned clunker, it’s not like he’s done much wrong.

R13

Renegade
Emerging Market
Golden Tempo

#4 RENEGADE (2-1): Did everything but win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, and it feels like the stars are aligning in the Grade 1 Belmont. The smaller field usually means less chaos and fewer variables, which should give him the cleaner trip he didn’t get five weeks ago beneath the Twin Spires; #8 EMERGING MARKET (6-1): Was 10th in the Derby, but that was just his third career start, which made things very, very difficult. He also lost a shoe during the race, and by all indications, he’s rebounded to train well coming into the final leg of racing’s Triple Crown; #9 GOLDEN TEMPO (9/2): Merits a ton of respect after the Derby win, and it’d be a great story if he and Saratoga Springs native Cherie DeVaux won this race, too. However, there doesn’t seem to be much pace signed on, and he capitalized on an ideal setup on the first Saturday in May. He’s talented, but such a setup seems unlikely to materialize again here.

R14

Pagode (MTO)
Sounds Like a Plan
Outrunner

#12 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (9/2): Has drawn a terrible post in the last of 14 races on the program, but he’s 3-for-3 with Lasix and sure looks like the main speed in the race. He’ll likely try to clear this field very quickly, and if he does, I think he might be tough to run down; #10 OUTRUNNER (5-1): Hasn’t won since a first-out score in late-2024, but he ran in some tough spots last year and is training well ahead of his first try since November. If he’s ready to run and can save some ground from this post, he’ll have every chance; #8 ELNAJD (5-1): Tries turf for the first time, and does so against a solid field. However, his bottom-side pedigree says he’ll love the lawn, and he’s shown tactical speed in three prior starts on dirt.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Friday, June 5th

Posted on 20 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $155

Whoever said, “never meet your heroes,” wasn’t talking about Tom Durkin. I got to know him a bit in my time working for The Saratogian many moons ago, and he’s an even better human than he was an announcer. He’s got a new book out, “A Life’s Calling,” and if you’re as much of a racing fan as I am, you’re going to love it.

I could tell a few stories about Tom in this space, but the one thing I’ve always valued is what some may consider a simple one. He, and a few other people I’ll always be indebted to, had several chances to tell a younger, greener version of me to shut up or buzz off. He never did. I can’t put into words how much that mattered to a kid trying to find his place in the world.

Thanks, Tom. Hope you’re doing great.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My multi-race plays got blown up in the second race, and I dropped $45.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m keeping it simple and focusing on the third race. #1 HERO DECLARED was a massive “buzz horse” when he debuted last year and ran second behind It’s Our Time (and ahead of Belmont Stakes favorite Renegade). We haven’t seen him since, but he’s working very well and I don’t think he catches any monsters in his 2026 debut. I’ll have a $50 win bet on him.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Hero Declared, Race 3
Longshot: Floy Joy, Race 13

Hadrian’s Wall
Sorrentino
Commerce

#8 HADRIAN’S WALL (7/5): Looks likely to start the Friday card on a chalky note. He missed by a head to the talented Ottinho in December and hasn’t raced since. The layoff isn’t ideal, but the work pattern is solid, and if he’s ready to go, he’s strictly the one to beat; #5 SORRENTINO (8-1): May provide some value underneath after losing all chance at the break in his debut at Gulfstream. He started slowly from the rail that day and never really had a chance to run his race. John Velazquez rides back for Todd Pletcher, and I’m expecting improvement at second asking; #3 COMMERCE (9/2): Debuted with a solid second at Keeneland against older horses in a race that’s aged pretty well. That day’s winner, Saugeen, came back to beat winners at Woodbine. Bill Mott trainees often get better with experience, and the solid local works may mean a step forward is in the offing.

Hit the Post
Factually Correct
Kenny Be

#3 HIT THE POST (7/2): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open optional claimer for state-breds. He goes second off the layoff here, and his first start since October wasn’t a bad one. He figures to be on or near the lead early, and he ran well here a few times last summer; #5 FACTUALLY CORRECT (4-1): Has won two in a row in wire-to-wire fashion, and the class jump may not be quite as big as it appears on paper. Those two races were at lower levels, but against open company. He goes back to state-breds here, and it sure seems like he’s in solid form; #4 KENNY BE (3-1): Was an easy winner last time out, but I have my doubts. He’d been at that level for quite a while, and I just don’t think he beat much that day a Aqueduct. This barn is good at keeping horses on the right track, but his likely price hits me as a slight underlay.

Hero Declared
Dark Moon
Holding Power

#1 HERO DECLARED (4-1): Was a huge buzz horse in his debut last summer, where he ran second behind a monster effort from It’s Our Time. We haven’t seen him since, but he’s been working up a storm at Keeneland, Payson Park, and across the street. If he’s developed in his time off, that big effort we expected last August could be on tap; #10 DARK MOON (8-1): Debuts for the Repole/Pletcher/Velazquez trio that’s won quite a few races up here, and he’s been working well ahead of his unveiling. The outside draw is a plus and should give the Hall of Fame rider plenty of options; #5 HOLDING POWER (15-1): Hammered for $475,000 back in 2024 and has a right to be a good one. His bottom-side pedigree is very strong, as his dam is a half to two Grade 1 winners (including Visionaire, whose page on Pedigree Query boasts one heck of a story…). He may want a bit longer, but perhaps he’s talented enough to factor here at a price.

Ways and Means
Grand Job
Senza Parole

#3 WAYS AND MEANS (1-1): Looks best in what morning line man David Aragona sees as a two-horse race. Her effort in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff wasn’t bad considering the 11-month layoff, and she returns to a track where she’s won four of five starts, including last year’s renewal of this event, the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses; #1 GRAND JOB (6/5): Suffered a pretty disgusting beat in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, where she was beaten a nose after leading in mid-stretch. She enters after three straight bullet drills for Mott, and my biggest concern isn’t her talent, but the rail draw; #4 SENZA PAROLE (8-1): Found her form in the winter and cuts back to seven furlongs after running second going two turns at Keeneland. That may have only been an optional claimer, but it drew a solid field, and perhaps the cutback is what she wants.

Sheer Will (MTO)
Silsbee
Emblaze

#11 SILSBEE (4-1): Earns my top pick in a wide-open race where I could’ve logically gone many different directions. I don’t love the layoff, but she got pretty good near the end of last year with two wins downstate, and at least we know she can run well fresh given her maiden-breaking score last May off of a similar-length layoff; #1 EMBLAZE (9/2): Won on debut at Tampa and ran well late to be third against stakes foes last month. She makes sense, especially given the addition of Lasix, but closers in these turf sprints that break from the rail often need quite a bit to go right; #7 DI NATALE (2-1): May very well be favored here, but I think this is a chalk one is supposed to try to beat. She’s run second three straight times against similar, and she was odds-on in each of her last two outings. Her figures are good, and perhaps she’s just better than these, but she hits me as a horse that likes to run second, and her likely price seems like an underlay.

Shelzawa
Deference
Secretly Delighted

#8 SHELZAWA (5/2): Makes her North American debut for Chad Brown after a pair of strong seconds in her native France. She gets Lasix for the first time, which often moves these horses up considerably, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a big, big plus; #3 DEFERENCE (6-1): Had a strange trip last time out at Aqueduct, when she initially stalked a slow pace before dropping back a few lengths and re-rallying. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of early speed signed on here, which means she could be able to dictate terms from the jump; #4 SECRETLY DELIGHTED (7/2): Debuted with a strong second at Kentucky Downs last August and hasn’t raced since. That day’s winner came back to repeat at next asking, and while the break of more than nine months is a significant hurdle to clear, there’s every chance she’s good enough to run well in her 3-year-old debut.

Money Game
Bendoog
Full Screen

#8 MONEY GAME (9/2): Continues up the class ladder after a 3-for-3 start to his career. This is a stakes-quality field he’s facing, but he’s yet to do anything wrong on the racetrack, and unlike many opponents who have been at this level for a while, this one may still be improving, which makes him dangerous; #7 BENDOOG (7/2): Has proven to be a challenging horse to ride over the years, and while he did technically win last time out, it was a dead heat. It’s tough to knock a millionaire that’s gotten to seven figures the hard way, but he’s very tough to endorse on top at a fairly short price; #1 FULL SCREEN (3-1): Hasn’t run since an easy score in the Queens County downstate in December. His best race could win, but isn’t it interesting that Cox also saddles my top pick in here, and that this one is eligible to be claimed for $110,000?

Commuted (MTO)
Mischievous Angel
Mentee

#1 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (6-1): Hasn’t run well in two starts this season, but those were in stakes company, and one of those efforts was going two turns. I think he’s better going shorter, and being able to run with Lasix against a slightly-weaker group may be enough to get him back on the beam; #10 MENTEE (7/2): Had an eventful trip over yielding going last time out, when he checked back to eighth and re-rallied to salvage third. He won the Grade 3 Futurity on turf back in 2024, and while he’s had his issues staying healthy, he’s a stakes-caliber horse on his best day; #4 SPICED UP (8-1): Looked like a very promising colt after winning the Grade 3 Mahony here last summer, but he hasn’t won since. His two-back effort at Keeneland, however, was fine, and he’ll get to run with Lasix over a turf course he’s shown he likes.

Pashmina (MTO)
Lion Lake
Time to Dream

#8 LION LAKE (8/5): Ran third in a pair of Grade 2 races in Kentucky and is a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Wonder Again. She’s shown she can take her game many different places, and her tactical speed is a huge plus. If she sits her desired “stalk and pounce” trip, she’ll have every chance; #5 TIME TO DREAM (9/2): Ran very well here twice a season ago but hasn’t really moved forward since then. She’s kept very tough company, though, and she returns to a track where she’s 2-for-2, including a five-length romp in last summer’s P.G. Johnson; #7 CALL ON ME (8-1): Merits a look underneath at a bit of a price. She goes up in class for Rusty Arnold, but her relative inexperience gives her room to improve, and perhaps she just moved a bit too early last time out at Churchill Downs.

R10

Always a Runner
Counting Stars
Meaning

#5 ALWAYS A RUNNER (4/5): Looms large in the Grade 1 Acorn, where she’ll face several foes she knocked off in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. That was just her third career start, so she has a right to take a step forward. If she does, the race is for second money; #2 COUNTING STARS (9/2): May have the potential to improve here given the likely race shape. There’s not much early speed signed on, and it wouldn’t be shocking if she leads this field by default going into the first turn. If she gets comfortable, perhaps she puts up a fight; #3 MEANING (3-1): Is a talented filly that’s never really misfired, and she was second in the Oaks five weeks ago. My only knock is that she sat what sure looked to be an ideal trip that day and got beat, which means I don’t have as much room to suggest there’s room for upward progression.

R11

Gezora
Cankoura
Speed Shopper

#9 GEZORA (3-1): Was beaten at odds of 4/5 in her 2026 debut, which came in the Grade 3 Modesty. That race was probably a bit shorter than she wants to go. She stretches out a bit in the Grade 1 New York, and she should be more ready to run in her second start off the bench for new trainer Bill Mott; #6 CANKOURA (10-1): Comes over from France, where she’s kept some tough company. She was third behind Gezora in a Group 1 last summer, and her relative clunker last time out was her first start since August; #3 SPEED SHOPPER (8-1): Was a relatively-easy winner of the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland going 12 furlongs, and she cuts back in distance here. At a minimum, this isn’t too long a trip for her, and she’s getting good at the right time for William Walden.

R12

Fully Subscribed
Nitrogen
Bless the Broken

#1 FULLY SUBSCRIBED (5/2): Had every chance in the Grade 1 La Troienne, but her rally was rebuffed and she settled for second. The Grade 1 Ogden Phipps is her second start off the bench, which means she should be sharper, and given the presence of my second choice, I don’t think she’ll be favored; #5 NITROGEN (7/5): Wasn’t worse than second in nine tries a season ago, and one of her wins came in the Grade 1 Alabama here at Saratoga. She did, however, burn money in each of her last two starts at Oaklawn. Perhaps the recent bullets at Keeneland are a clue she’s doing well, but she may need to get back to that 2025 form to win here, and that’s not a certainty; #6 BLESS THE BROKEN (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and has developed some tactical speed since going to Brad Cox’s barn. That could put her in the clear and just off the pace, which would give her first run turning for home.

R13

Grace and Grit
Floy Joy
Karley B

#6 GRACE AND GRIT (5/2): Has won two of three races against open company since going to the Amelia Green barn, and her last-out win going seven furlongs was excellent. It seems like she’s in career-best form as a 4-year-old, and a repeat of that most recent effort would put her right there; #8 FLOY JOY (10-1): Dueled throughout to win on debut for a barn whose first-time starters almost always need a race to get going. She bolted last time out, which makes the clunker a throw-out. The rider switch to Dylan Davis is notable, and if she gets back to her debut form, I think she’s a player at a price; #7 KARLEY B (3-1): Overcame a bump at the break to graduate at second asking last time out. She looked great that day, but I have no idea what she beat in that race, and I think this is a pretty classy group for the level. She may need to improve to make it two in a row.

R14

Knowledge Sharing
Harry O
Silent Impact

#11 KNOWLEDGE SHARING (5-1): Debuts for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and is very interesting despite an outside post and an unveiling coming going two turns. His bottom-side pedigree is exceptional. He comes from the female family of Tiznow and Budroyale, so he should want every inch of ground he can get; #10 HARRY O (6-1): Ran fairly well in two starts last season before going to the sidelines. The winner of his most recent race came back to repeat, and he should at least get some pace to run at; #5 SILENT IMPACT (8-1): Took a step forward in his first try on turf, when he made a middle move into a very fast pace and settled for second. His two-back drill at Belmont was very solid, and a logical move forward at third asking would make him a contender in the nightcap.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll for Thursday, June 4th

Posted on 21 Days Ago by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

As I said on Twitter Wednesday, it’s good to see I haven’t lost my touch. I’m not necessarily referring to anything pertaining to success or failure when I say that, but rather referring to horses I use in bankroll bets scratching with astounding regularity.

Awesome Czech would’ve been a single everywhere on the Wednesday program, and she likely would’ve been a pretty heavy favorite in the third. She’ll run another day (and, if it’s in a similar spot, she’ll likely run very well), but it’s an odd feeling when the first batch of Saratoga bets in nine months gets wiped off the ledger.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I had no action.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My best bet of the day comes in the fifth. That’s #11 FLORIDA PATRIOT, and I’m going to try to extract some value from her in multi-race exotics. I’ll play a 50-cent Pick Five starting in the opener, and that ticket is as follows: 1,3,4,6 with 1,4,6 with 1,5,9 with 2,6 with 11. In addition, I’ll play a 50-cent early Pick Four starting in the second race that uses my horses from the last four legs of that bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Florida Patriot, Race 5
Longshot: Love Cervere, Race 8

Dinner Party
Luminous Beauty
Margie’s Girl

#4 DINNER PARTY (6-1): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open baby race to kick off the Thursday program. She fetched $450,000 at auction last summer, has been training consistently for Todd Pletcher, and boasts a bottom-side pedigree that includes plenty of precocity; #3 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (4-1): Led late in her unveiling at Churchill before settling for second for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. That experience edge she has over most of these is significant, and she has every right to move forward; #6 MARGIE’S GIRL (3-1): Rallied to finish third in the same race my second choice exits. Her work since that effort was very sharp, and she’s another that could improve second time out.

Mythical
Paige Turner
Carmel Coast

#6 MYTHICAL (1-1): Has won seven of nine lifetime starts, two of which were stakes races here last summer. She’s fast, but she also seems to have learned how to rate a bit as a 3-year-old. That could be valuable in the Jersey Girl, which features plenty of early speed inside this one; #4 PAIGE TURNER (4-1): May have needed her 2026 debut last month and goes second off the bench here. She’s another that can pass others, which should help given the likely race shape, and the last-out bullet drill at Keeneland is another plus; #1 CARMEL COAST (5/2): Came back running off the bench at Churchill and figures to be part of that fast early pace. In that regard, the rail draw could help, and she wired the field in what turned out to be a pretty classy maiden race here a year ago.

Talk to Me Jimmy (MTO)
West End Kid
Blackmail

#9 WEST END KID (9/5): Has done absolutely nothing wrong in his last two starts and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge (given his penchant for poking fun at the namesake, can’t someone at NYRA motion for this to be renamed the Charles Simon?). Running without Lasix is a question mark, but that’s one shared by many of his opponents and he may still have room to improve given his relative inexperience; #5 BLACKMAIL (8-1): Figures to be on or near the lead in a race without much other early zip signed on. That’s dangerous in two-turn turf races here, and the last-out winner of the Woodhaven downstate stands a big chance if he’s left alone up front; #1 BOTTAS (7/2): Was 2-for-2 heading into the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year, but he didn’t fire that day and hasn’t raced since. The five-furlong works are a plus, and he’s certainly a contender if he’s ready, but the likely race shape doesn’t play to his strengths and rail draws can be tricky for one-run closers.

Directive
Pure Joy
U Lite Up My Life

#6 DIRECTIVE (4/5): Was bet down to 1/5 last time out and ran to the billing, wiring a field in the mud at Aqueduct and romping by nearly eight lengths. She goes two turns for the first time, but the pedigree says she wants this trip, and it’s not like she goes against any monsters as she steps up in class; #2 PURE JOY (5-1): Won going 10 furlongs last time out at Churchill, and while she’s not an explosive type, she is a grinder who won’t be beaten by this two-turn route. She could use her tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Tyler Gaffalione; #3 U LITE UP MY LIFE (10-1): Ships in for Saffie Joseph after a win off the bench at Oaklawn in March. She seems to be at her best going two turns, and while she may need to move forward on figures to contend here, dismiss these connections at your own peril.

Florida Patriot
Chart the Course
I’m Very Sweet

#11 FLORIDA PATRIOT (5/2): Did everything but win in her debut last month, when she got to the lead, spurted clear in the stretch, and got caught in the final strides. This barn tends to move horses forward with experience, and I just don’t see much other early speed. If she breaks well and gets comfortable, I think she’ll be very tough to run down; #5 CHART THE COURSE (8-1): Debuts for Mark Casse, and there’s reason to think she could be a runner. She’s worked well ahead of her unveiling, and while the pedigree says she wants longer than this 5 1/2-furlong distance, there’s a lot of class there on both top and bottom; #7 I’M VERY SWEET (6-1): Ran pretty well to be second last time out in her first start since April of 2025. Perhaps she’s wanted turf all along, and the rider switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one.

Careless Whisper
Enterprisingly
Tuthilltown

#3 CARELESS WHISPER (7/2): Dueled from start to finish in her debut and came up a head short. That was in an off-the-turf race, but she ran well first time out and seems to be training well coming into her second career outing; #5 ENTERPRISINGLY (15-1): Had an adventurous trip first time out going two turns, so I have no problem drawing a line through that effort. Her works since that race have been very solid, Jose Ortiz hops aboard for a barn he doesn’t ride for much, and I think she’s got a chance at a price; #12 TUTHILLTOWN (9/2): Finished on the wrong end of a win photo last time out, and that day’s third-place finisher won at next asking. She may not be alone up front early on, but she may be the horse they have to run down turning for home.

Operation Overlord
Right to Vote
Likeness

#8 OPERATION OVERLORD (9/2): Got what hit me as a strange ride last time out at Keeneland. He wants to be forward, but was kept a few lengths off the leader that day, and I think that may have cost him the race. There isn’t much other early speed in this turf marathon, and if he gets his desired trip, I think he’s the one to beat; #7 RIGHT TO VOTE (4-1): Came back with a solid second downstate after not being seen since the 2024 Grade 3 Hill Prince in November of 2024. He almost certainly needed that race, and while he tries three turns for the first time, his pedigree says this trip should fit him like a glove; #1 LIKENESS (7/2): May be favored after a near-miss at this distance last time out, but I have some doubts. He had every chance that day with what seemed like an ideal trip and couldn’t get the job done. This field hits me as a better one, and while he’s a contender, the morning line price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

Love Cervere
In Our Time
Creed’s Gold

#5 LOVE CERVERE (10-1): Is a pace play for me in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, which is packed to the brim with early speed. When this one gets a pace to run at, she’s dangerous, and she closed into slower fractions last time out to win the License Fee. If this falls apart, she could become the Intercontinental Champion at a price (if you bet against me making a wrestling reference this week, you lost); #3 IN OUR TIME (3-1): Exits a win in the Grade 2 Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland and isn’t a bad favorite. She wants to be on or near the lead and she’s got a ton of early zip. The question is, how hard will she have to work early on to get to the front?; #2 CREED’S GOLD (8-1): Was wide when seventh in last year’s renewal, and if you draw a line through that excusable clunker, she doesn’t have a bad race on her sheet. She can run well late, and the likely race shape means that’s a big plus.

Magnanimous Max
Xcel
Georgia Magic

#2 MAGNANIMOUS MAX (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a race out of the Wilson chute where I just don’t have a strong opinion. However, he’s got plenty of early speed and draws a cushy inside post, which means he should sit his desired trip if he breaks well. Add in back-to-back scores at this distance downstate, and there’s something to like; #5 XCEL (12-1): Graduated last time out after a pair of turf clunkers in Florida, and perhaps he’s just wanted dirt all along. He may not have beaten much last time out, but it’s not like this is a fantastic field, and maybe he’s coming to hand for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #8 GEORGIA MAGIC (3-1): Was a hard-luck loser last month at Aqueduct and goes first off the claim for a smaller barn that’s won at a high clip. However, I think there’s other speed in here, the outside post position is a problem, and this outfit also saddles the one directly to his inside.

R10

Parchment Party (MTO)
Tawny Port
Corruption

#3 TAWNY PORT (3-1): Hasn’t won in a very long time, but has a big chance to break the drought in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup. He ran second in a rich race going a similar route at Kentucky Downs, Prat hops aboard for Miguel Clement, and he should have some pace to chase; #7 CORRUPTION (7/5): Will be a heavy favorite dropping in class after a third in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He’s got speed and will be forward, but so do several others, and his best chance to win is probably leading every step of this two-mile journey. That’s not impossible, but it’s also not easy, so at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him; #6 CONCORD GREEN (8-1): Comes up in class for this one and runs without Lasix, which is a question mark. However, the best race on his sheet was an impressive score going 12 furlongs at Gulfstream in March. He may need to improve on figures, but he’s bred like a horse that wants this marathon trip, and he’s run like it, too.

R11

Big Air (MTO)
Dividend Recap
Lotus Petal

#6 DIVIDEND RECAP (8/5): Hits me as a likely, chalky winner of the Thursday nightcap. Her return to the races last time out was a very good one, and while the multiple long layoffs hint that she’s had some issues, her best efforts tower over this field. She’ll be a popular multi-race exotics single, and for good reason; #11 LOTUS PETAL (12-1): May be a price, but if you toss her efforts two and three back (before and after a significant break), her sheet looks considerably better. It’s a step up in class, and the outside draw isn’t ideal, but this also isn’t the toughest race for the level, so I think she could hit the board at a number; #4 MO COMPLEX (10-1): Wired a field of maiden claimers in her New York debut last time out and faces winners for the first time. I’m not crazy about the jump in class, but at a minimum, she should be prominent early, and perhaps she’s wanted to go long for a while and is relishing the chance to do that.