Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

As I said on Twitter Wednesday, it’s good to see I haven’t lost my touch. I’m not necessarily referring to anything pertaining to success or failure when I say that, but rather referring to horses I use in bankroll bets scratching with astounding regularity.

Awesome Czech would’ve been a single everywhere on the Wednesday program, and she likely would’ve been a pretty heavy favorite in the third. She’ll run another day (and, if it’s in a similar spot, she’ll likely run very well), but it’s an odd feeling when the first batch of Saratoga bets in nine months gets wiped off the ledger.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I had no action.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My best bet of the day comes in the fifth. That’s #11 FLORIDA PATRIOT, and I’m going to try to extract some value from her in multi-race exotics. I’ll play a 50-cent Pick Five starting in the opener, and that ticket is as follows: 1,3,4,6 with 1,4,6 with 1,5,9 with 2,6 with 11. In addition, I’ll play a 50-cent early Pick Four starting in the second race that uses my horses from the last four legs of that bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Florida Patriot, Race 5
Longshot: Love Cervere, Race 8

R1

Dinner Party
Luminous Beauty
Margie’s Girl

#4 DINNER PARTY (6-1): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open baby race to kick off the Thursday program. She fetched $450,000 at auction last summer, has been training consistently for Todd Pletcher, and boasts a bottom-side pedigree that includes plenty of precocity; #3 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (4-1): Led late in her unveiling at Churchill before settling for second for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. That experience edge she has over most of these is significant, and she has every right to move forward; #6 MARGIE’S GIRL (3-1): Rallied to finish third in the same race my second choice exits. Her work since that effort was very sharp, and she’s another that could improve second time out.

R2

Mythical
Paige Turner
Carmel Coast

#6 MYTHICAL (1-1): Has won seven of nine lifetime starts, two of which were stakes races here last summer. She’s fast, but she also seems to have learned how to rate a bit as a 3-year-old. That could be valuable in the Jersey Girl, which features plenty of early speed inside this one; #4 PAIGE TURNER (4-1): May have needed her 2026 debut last month and goes second off the bench here. She’s another that can pass others, which should help given the likely race shape, and the last-out bullet drill at Keeneland is another plus; #1 CARMEL COAST (5/2): Came back running off the bench at Churchill and figures to be part of that fast early pace. In that regard, the rail draw could help, and she wired the field in what turned out to be a pretty classy maiden race here a year ago.

R3

Talk to Me Jimmy (MTO)
West End Kid
Blackmail

#9 WEST END KID (9/5): Has done absolutely nothing wrong in his last two starts and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge (given his penchant for poking fun at the namesake, can’t someone at NYRA motion for this to be renamed the Charles Simon?). Running without Lasix is a question mark, but that’s one shared by many of his opponents and he may still have room to improve given his relative inexperience; #5 BLACKMAIL (8-1): Figures to be on or near the lead in a race without much other early zip signed on. That’s dangerous in two-turn turf races here, and the last-out winner of the Woodhaven downstate stands a big chance if he’s left alone up front; #1 BOTTAS (7/2): Was 2-for-2 heading into the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year, but he didn’t fire that day and hasn’t raced since. The five-furlong works are a plus, and he’s certainly a contender if he’s ready, but the likely race shape doesn’t play to his strengths and rail draws can be tricky for one-run closers.

R4

Directive
Pure Joy
U Lite Up My Life

#6 DIRECTIVE (4/5): Was bet down to 1/5 last time out and ran to the billing, wiring a field in the mud at Aqueduct and romping by nearly eight lengths. She goes two turns for the first time, but the pedigree says she wants this trip, and it’s not like she goes against any monsters as she steps up in class; #2 PURE JOY (5-1): Won going 10 furlongs last time out at Churchill, and while she’s not an explosive type, she is a grinder who won’t be beaten by this two-turn route. She could use her tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Tyler Gaffalione; #3 U LITE UP MY LIFE (10-1): Ships in for Saffie Joseph after a win off the bench at Oaklawn in March. She seems to be at her best going two turns, and while she may need to move forward on figures to contend here, dismiss these connections at your own peril.

R5

Florida Patriot
Chart the Course
I’m Very Sweet

#11 FLORIDA PATRIOT (5/2): Did everything but win in her debut last month, when she got to the lead, spurted clear in the stretch, and got caught in the final strides. This barn tends to move horses forward with experience, and I just don’t see much other early speed. If she breaks well and gets comfortable, I think she’ll be very tough to run down; #5 CHART THE COURSE (8-1): Debuts for Mark Casse, and there’s reason to think she could be a runner. She’s worked well ahead of her unveiling, and while the pedigree says she wants longer than this 5 1/2-furlong distance, there’s a lot of class there on both top and bottom; #7 I’M VERY SWEET (6-1): Ran pretty well to be second last time out in her first start since April of 2025. Perhaps she’s wanted turf all along, and the rider switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one.

R6

Careless Whisper
Enterprisingly
Tuthilltown

#3 CARELESS WHISPER (7/2): Dueled from start to finish in her debut and came up a head short. That was in an off-the-turf race, but she ran well first time out and seems to be training well coming into her second career outing; #5 ENTERPRISINGLY (15-1): Had an adventurous trip first time out going two turns, so I have no problem drawing a line through that effort. Her works since that race have been very solid, Jose Ortiz hops aboard for a barn he doesn’t ride for much, and I think she’s got a chance at a price; #12 TUTHILLTOWN (9/2): Finished on the wrong end of a win photo last time out, and that day’s third-place finisher won at next asking. She may not be alone up front early on, but she may be the horse they have to run down turning for home.

R7

Operation Overlord
Right to Vote
Likeness

#8 OPERATION OVERLORD (9/2): Got what hit me as a strange ride last time out at Keeneland. He wants to be forward, but was kept a few lengths off the leader that day, and I think that may have cost him the race. There isn’t much other early speed in this turf marathon, and if he gets his desired trip, I think he’s the one to beat; #7 RIGHT TO VOTE (4-1): Came back with a solid second downstate after not being seen since the 2024 Grade 3 Hill Prince in November of 2024. He almost certainly needed that race, and while he tries three turns for the first time, his pedigree says this trip should fit him like a glove; #1 LIKENESS (7/2): May be favored after a near-miss at this distance last time out, but I have some doubts. He had every chance that day with what seemed like an ideal trip and couldn’t get the job done. This field hits me as a better one, and while he’s a contender, the morning line price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

R8

Love Cervere
In Our Time
Creed’s Gold

#5 LOVE CERVERE (10-1): Is a pace play for me in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, which is packed to the brim with early speed. When this one gets a pace to run at, she’s dangerous, and she closed into slower fractions last time out to win the License Fee. If this falls apart, she could become the Intercontinental Champion at a price (if you bet against me making a wrestling reference this week, you lost); #3 IN OUR TIME (3-1): Exits a win in the Grade 2 Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland and isn’t a bad favorite. She wants to be on or near the lead and she’s got a ton of early zip. The question is, how hard will she have to work early on to get to the front?; #2 CREED’S GOLD (8-1): Was wide when seventh in last year’s renewal, and if you draw a line through that excusable clunker, she doesn’t have a bad race on her sheet. She can run well late, and the likely race shape means that’s a big plus.

R9

Magnanimous Max
Xcel
Georgia Magic

#2 MAGNANIMOUS MAX (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a race out of the Wilson chute where I just don’t have a strong opinion. However, he’s got plenty of early speed and draws a cushy inside post, which means he should sit his desired trip if he breaks well. Add in back-to-back scores at this distance downstate, and there’s something to like; #5 XCEL (12-1): Graduated last time out after a pair of turf clunkers in Florida, and perhaps he’s just wanted dirt all along. He may not have beaten much last time out, but it’s not like this is a fantastic field, and maybe he’s coming to hand for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #8 GEORGIA MAGIC (3-1): Was a hard-luck loser last month at Aqueduct and goes first off the claim for a smaller barn that’s won at a high clip. However, I think there’s other speed in here, the outside post position is a problem, and this outfit also saddles the one directly to his inside.

R10

Parchment Party (MTO)
Tawny Port
Corruption

#3 TAWNY PORT (3-1): Hasn’t won in a very long time, but has a big chance to break the drought in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup. He ran second in a rich race going a similar route at Kentucky Downs, Prat hops aboard for Miguel Clement, and he should have some pace to chase; #7 CORRUPTION (7/5): Will be a heavy favorite dropping in class after a third in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He’s got speed and will be forward, but so do several others, and his best chance to win is probably leading every step of this two-mile journey. That’s not impossible, but it’s also not easy, so at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him; #6 CONCORD GREEN (8-1): Comes up in class for this one and runs without Lasix, which is a question mark. However, the best race on his sheet was an impressive score going 12 furlongs at Gulfstream in March. He may need to improve on figures, but he’s bred like a horse that wants this marathon trip, and he’s run like it, too.

R11

Big Air (MTO)
Dividend Recap
Lotus Petal

#6 DIVIDEND RECAP (8/5): Hits me as a likely, chalky winner of the Thursday nightcap. Her return to the races last time out was a very good one, and while the multiple long layoffs hint that she’s had some issues, her best efforts tower over this field. She’ll be a popular multi-race exotics single, and for good reason; #11 LOTUS PETAL (12-1): May be a price, but if you toss her efforts two and three back (before and after a significant break), her sheet looks considerably better. It’s a step up in class, and the outside draw isn’t ideal, but this also isn’t the toughest race for the level, so I think she could hit the board at a number; #4 MO COMPLEX (10-1): Wired a field of maiden claimers in her New York debut last time out and faces winners for the first time. I’m not crazy about the jump in class, but at a minimum, she should be prominent early, and perhaps she’s wanted to go long for a while and is relishing the chance to do that.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

We’re back with the final Belmont week at Saratoga. For the new and/or uninitiated, a preview: I’ll have tickets for each day of racing and attempt to grow my initial $200 stake between now and the end of the day on Sunday. These plays, plus my picks and analysis, will be available in-print in The Pink Sheet and online at both AndrewChampagne.com and my Substack page, The Smart Money (with Twitter’s algorithm no longer giving my content much attention, subscribing to one of those feeds is the better play to ensure you see all of my content).

Another change this year is that, if you see my stuff online, you’ll see a link to tip me via Venmo below the bankroll section and above the selections and analysis. My content will always be free to access, but I got approached via the “contact me” function last month by a very generous longtime reader who suggested it (thanks again, Kristian).

Wednesday’s card is a good one, with a plethora of stakes races for New York-breds and some opportunities to take stands. Let’s dive in!

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race and try to extract some value out of #3 AWESOME CZECH. I’ll key her in $15 exactas above #6 NATIONAL ARCHIVE and #7 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO, as well as in $5 “saver” exactas underneath those two runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Awesome Czech, Race 3
Longshot: Olivia’s Grace, Race 6

R1

Little Trilby
Ziggle Pops
Jimmy P

#1 LITTLE TRILBY (2-1): Is a worthy favorite in the Grade 1 Beverly Steinman over fences after a runaway win in Grade 1 company last month. He’s won three of his last four, the lone loss coming when he fell in the Grade 1 Colonial Cup last November, and his best beats these; #8 ZIGGLE POPS (3-1): Makes his third start off a very long break and returns to Saratoga for the first time since the 2024 Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, which he won by more than four lengths. Jack Fisher’s one of the best jump trainers in the game, and this one has tactical speed in a race without much of it signed on elsewhere; #5 JIMMY P (5-1): Is a different horse at the Spa, having won the last two renewals of the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. His efforts elsewhere have been underwhelming, but upstate New York trips have woken him up in big ways in years past (SIDE NOTE: Brisnet past performances do not have complete racing data for the first six horses in this field. If you use those PP’s, you’ll want to check out other forms when handicapping steeplechase races so you don’t miss anything!).

R2

Irish Lullaby
Hot Currency
Galinda

#4 IRISH LULLABY (9/2): Ships in from Woodbine after graduating over the synthetic surface there and faces winners for the first time in the Bouwerie. I like that she’s shown an ability to close, given an abundance of early speed here. Flavien Prat hops on, and the recent workouts look sharp; #7 HOT CURRENCY (7/5): Took a big step forward off of a three-month break to take a race at this level downstate last time out. A repeat of that effort makes her a likely winner, and the outside draw helps, but that was a significant, possibly-unrepeatable move forward, and there’s other speed in here to keep her company; #5 GALINDA (3-1): Has won three of four and re-rallied to take an optional claimer against open company at this distance in April. She’s won without Lasix before and certainly loves this distance, which makes her a player even with a likely race shape that may not play to her strengths.

R3

Awesome Czech
Bam’s Bliss Kiss (MTO)
National Archive

#3 AWESOME CZECH (9/5): Looks formidable in the Mount Vernon, where she comes back to run against state-bred foes for the first time in a while. She’s 4-for-5 over this turf course, has plenty of tactical speed, and should sit an ideal trip against many foes she’s beaten in the past; #6 NATIONAL ARCHIVE (8-1): May have needed her 2026 debut off a break of nearly six months, where she was a one-paced third with a less-than-ideal trip. All three of her previous wins have come with Flavien Prat up, and he hops back aboard for the first time since her last score in September; #7 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (8-1): Won the race my second choice exits, and she also goes second off the bench. She made a big middle move into a slow pace that day, but running without Lasix here and going over a track where she’s 0-for-4 are both question marks.

R4

Buttah (MTO)
Mi Bago
Spirit of St Louis

#6 MI BAGO (3-1): Looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. He’s been running against open stakes company for most of his career, goes against state-breds in the Kingston, and is a legit wire-to-wire candidate; #7 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (5/2): Was one of the top turf horses in the country in early-2025 but hasn’t won in over a year. Anything close to his best likely thumps these, though, and ignore Chad Brown in a Saratoga turf race at your own peril; #2 GEORGE BRIGGS (2-1): Is the morning-line favorite here, but I have some doubts. He sat a picture-perfect stalking trip last time, and was able to run with Lasix that day. His efforts without Lasix are…fine, I suppose, but they don’t tower over this bunch. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against him.

R5

Valtellina
Walk With Me
Bernietakescharge

#4 VALTELLINA (3-1): Comes off the bench in a pretty stacked renewal of the Critical Eye, but I like her a fair bit despite the six-month break. There’s a lot of early speed in here, and she’s shown she can pick up the pieces effectively at this level. If she’s ready, she’s got a big shot; #1 WALK WITH ME (7/2): Goes back to two turns for the first time in a while, and that’s always hit me as her preferred route. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and while she’s not a true closer, she IS a grinder who should be moving the right way when the real running starts; #7 BERNIETAKESCHARGE (5/2): Is one of several with lots of early speed, and she comes back to the state-bred ranks after facing tougher downstate. If she can get back to her best form, which included a win in this very race a season ago, she could be the one they have to catch.

R6

Princess Wadadli (MTO)
Olivia’s Grace
Sacred Goddess

#7 OLIVIA’S GRACE (12-1): Is very intriguing at a price for several reasons. She got some very strange trips here a year ago and almost certainly needed her April return to the races (her first try since August). Her recent works are sharp, and if she’s ready to run, I think she could light up the tote board; #10 SACRED GODDESS (6-1): Probably had too much to do last time out in her 2026 unveiling and was wide that day. I’m expecting a step forward from a runner that’s knocked heads with some good ones; #1 DISCO STAR (5-1): Hasn’t won since 2024, but has made a career out of picking up checks in tough spots. I can’t back her on top given the “pack animal” tendencies she may have picked up, and the rail draw isn’t ideal, but she’s impossible to ignore underneath.

R7

Love Coin (MTO)
Willpowered
Homewood Hustle

#11 WILLPOWERED (7/2): Enjoyed a productive winter in Florida, where he ran well twice at Tampa. Those turf races are highly-competitive, and a return to the state-bred ranks is probably a drop in class. If Prat can find a way to save ground from a tricky post, he’ll be a major player; #7 HOMEWOOD HUSTLE (3-1): Looked great in his debut, where he stalked, pounced, and earned the diploma going away. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and this is definitely a step up, but this high-percentage barn doesn’t mess around and the addition of Lasix could move him forward; #8 SIX FORTYFIVE (10-1): Merits a look underneath at a price. He made a big move last time before flattening out and checking in third, and like my top pick, he ran well against open company several times earlier this year at Tampa.

R8

Bravaro
Sculcos Folly
Time to Roll

#9 BRAVARO (5/2): Comes back to state-bred competition after running in a trio of Kentucky Derby preps. He got some tough trips in a few of those races, and the outside draw in the Mike Lee hits me as a huge plus. If Irad Ortiz Jr. can keep him out of trouble, he’s strictly the one to beat; #1 SCULCOS FOLLY (3-1): Has won five of his last six, including a pair of one-turn stakes races at this level downstate. This field appears tougher than the ones he’s thumped of late, but he’s got a ton of early speed and should be able to utilize it from the inside draw; #8 TIME TO ROLL (9/2): Ran well to be second against open company in a pair of stakes races this spring and is another with early speed. Expect him to be prominent early beneath new jock Jose Ortiz, who replaces Jaime Rodriguez (who opted to ride my second choice).

R9

Bank Frenzy
Iron Dome
Drake’s Passage

#6 BANK FRENZY (7/2): Comes off the bench for the Commentator, a race he won last year. He loves going two turns at Saratoga, he’s run well fresh in the past, and he should get plenty of pace to chase. Put all of that together, and I think he’s a likely repeater; #7 IRON DOME (5/2): Ripped through three fields here last summer and showed genuine potential, but he hasn’t really moved forward since then. Perhaps the return to this surface moves him up, but he may need to go pretty quickly early, and I think he’ll be overbet; #8 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (5-1): Won this race in 2024 and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since, but he had several nightmare trips a season ago and has been freshened up since last August. He’s run well here many times, he’s been working consistently since March, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he picks up a check.

R10

Royal Ascendshin
Rossbeigh
Bold Scholar

#16 ROYAL ASCENDSHIN (6-1): Needs quite a few scratches to draw in off the AE list, but I thought he ran very well in his debut. He closed at first asking in a race with very little early pace, and he finished a solid second for a barn whose first-time starters sometimes need a race to get going. If he runs in the nightcap, I’m expecting a step forward; #1 ROSSBEIGH (9/5): Is a logical favorite despite coming off a long break. He’s protected from being claimed here, which I always love to see, and anything close to his debut effort (where he nearly won) would make him a major player; #8 BOLD SCHOLAR (15-1): May be a big price but has several positives working in his favor. This barn can pop at a price with debuting turfers, and his pedigree is solid. His dam is out of a mare that won first time out, and that second dam is kin to a pair of stakes winners. Add in a few sharp drills, and perhaps he’s ready to run in the Wednesday finale.