Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $958

I mentioned something on my podcast, “Drank’n Champagne,” this week that bears repeating in this space.

Friday’s fourth race is a 2-year-old maiden event for runners who sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less at auction. This idea is a great one. It allows smaller-sized barns to run horses in reasonable spots without worrying about running into million-dollar babies, and the races generally fill, which is a testament to their popularity.

However, in some racing forms, these races are not marked as “restricted” events, and that’s a mistake. These are absolutely, positively “restricted” races, because not all 2-year-olds can run in them, and they should be reflected as such in a horse’s past performances. There’s probably something in racing’s archaic data entry system that makes this much harder than it should be, but shouldn’t we be better at calling a spade a spade, in this case?

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Tizmarkus had an ideal trip in the third but couldn’t reel in longshot winner Kunshan Bridge. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: My day goes through #2 ICE CHOCOLAT in the eighth. He’s a single for me in the Pick Five sequence we profiled on the podcast, and he’s a heavy lean here. In addition to a $25 win bet, I’ll also single him to end $5 doubles that start in the seventh with #7 GEOSTOBLAME and #9 MIRAGE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Ice Chocolat, Race 8
Longshot: End of Romance, Race 6

R1

Red Square
Frenchquarter Note
He’s My Kind

#2 RED SQUARE (8/5): Broke terribly when favored in his debut at Churchill, but he showed some talent rallying from last to be third. It’s safe to assume he learned quite a bit that day, and the continued presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., says that a step forward could be in the offing; #7 FRENCHQUARTER NOTE (6-1): Showed speed in his debut downstate and is another second-time starter that could move forward. His tactical speed could allow Ricardo Santana, Jr., to work out an ideal trip, and he may be the one to catch turning for home; #5 HE’S MY KIND (3-1): Has run two solid races in as many outings and was most recently second in the race my second choice exits. On figures, he fits, but I think he may be a tad overbet, and trainer Miguel Clement also saddling #6 BLAZING TIGER in here raises a few eyebrows.

R2

The Standard
Old Time Rocknroll
Regeneration

#6 THE STANDARD (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I just don’t have many strong opinions. He hasn’t blown me away with his races to date, but he certainly feels like one of the likely speed horses in a race where they may not go fast early. That race shape would certainly work in his favor; #4 OLD TIME ROCKNROLL (6-1): Is the lesser-fancied Chad Brown runner on the morning line, but I think he’s live. He debuted going up against some very solid 2-year-olds here last summer, and he’s been working steadily for months ahead of his return. The addition of both Lasix and blinkers could move him forward; #2 REGENERATION (5/2): Completes Brown’s 1-2 punch in here, and he drops in for a tag after being off six months. He’s been working well, and he adds both blinkers and Flavien Prat, but it’s curious that a horse who ran reasonably well in two maiden special weight races goes down the class ladder, in a race where Brown also saddles another. Those curiosities mean I don’t want a very short price.

R3

Two Eagles River
Twenty Four Mamba
Reddington

#4 TWO EAGLES RIVER (7/2): Sat an uncharacteristic trip last time out, when he was on the lead through solid fractions at Churchill. He’s shown he wants to stalk and pounce, and he should get that trip here in a race that seems to have attracted several horses that want to be forward; #8 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA (3-1): Does his best work at this seven-furlong distance and was last seen running away with a lower-level race at Aqueduct. That was his first win in a while, but of the likely speed horses, he’s at least shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #2 REDDINGTON (5-1): Hasn’t run in nearly a year, but he comes back protected from being claimed, which I love to see. The connections don’t want to lose this horse (at least not yet), he’s run very well at Saratoga in the past, and he’s another that can have something left in the tank when the real running starts.

R4

Lexi’s Charm
Juneau
R Kan’t Miss

#5 LEXI’S CHARM (4-1): Debuts for Mark Casse and is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Stormy Embrace. It’s very strange she sold for just $15,000 as a yearling with that pedigree, but she’s been working well of late and could be a runner; #8 JUNEAU (9/2): Is one of just two in here with experience, and she ran OK to be second in a similar restricted-by-auction-price race at Churchill. Kenny McPeek’s runners sometimes need a race to get going, and she may not need to improve much from her prior outing; #6 R KAN’T MISS (3-1): Barely qualifies for this condition, having sold for $65,000 earlier this year. Her dam also threw 2-year-old stakes winner Leslie’s Loot, workouts look pretty solid, and while Saffie Joseph’s barn has been a bit chilly to start the meet, he’s one that can heat up at any time.

R5

Party in the Army (MTO)
Twisted Filigree
Vacation Dance

#5 TWISTED FILIGREE (2-1): Takes a drop in class after finishing a close-up fourth at this route last month. That day’s winner, Determined Kingdom, is a very nice horse, and that was this gelding’s first try since February. I can’t get cute here, as he looks like a very formidable favorite; #6 VACATION DANCE (5/2): Drops for powerhouse connections and probably had too much to do last time out in the same race my top pick exits. His best race could win, and the Cox/Irad tag team is a good one, but closers often need quite a bit to go right in these turf sprints; #8 COURTLY BANKER (5-1): Has run his best races here, including a three-back runaway score at this route. He was overmatched against stakes foes last time out, and this is almost certainly a better level for him.

R6

Dreamlike (MTO)
Noble Confessor
End of Romance

#9 NOBLE CONFESSOR (6-1): Has plenty of back class and boasts several strong past efforts at similar marathon distances. He was second in last year’s Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby going 11 furlongs, and he should sit an ideal stalking trip that gives him every chance; #7 END OF ROMANCE (8-1): Is the one I like most out of a race June 18th that featured several of these entrants. He made multiple moves that day and was beaten just a half-length. Luis Saez hops aboard for Graham Motion, and I think there’s more talent here than what we may see on paper; #2 RIGHT TO VOTE (5-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, and even though he’s the bigger price, he’s the one I like more. He makes his third start off a long break, exits a last-out win at this route last month, and is 2-for-2 over the Saratoga turf course.

R7

Geostoblame
Mirage
Antietam

#7 GEOSTOBLAME (3-1): Exits a failed turf experiment against optional claimers and drops way down the class ladder to this restricted $20,000 claimer. He took a significant step forward when allowed to run with Lasix, and a repeat of either of his efforts two and three back would give him a big chance; #9 MIRAGE (2-1): Disappointed at fairly short prices in each of his last two starts. However, this seems to be a significantly weaker group than what he’s used to facing, and his races from the winter and spring at Oaklawn weren’t bad. If he can find that form here, he’ll have a say in things; #1 ANTIETAM (5/2): Was highly-touted as a 2-year-old back in 2024, but has since dropped far down the ranks. He graduated two back before finishing last of seven last time out, but he did have some trouble that day and he gets Irad for just his second two-turn dirt outing.

R8

Inexorable (MTO)
Ice Chocolat
Beef Winslow

#2 ICE CHOCOLAT (7/2): Won the Grade 3 Poker over this turf course in 2024 and takes a drop into the claiming ranks for aggressive connections. He’s still been running well at Woodbine, so the tag is curious, but to be fair, he’s also an 8-year-old gelding. If he can channel the form he’s shown over this track in the past, I think the race is for second; #4 BEEF WINSLOW (3-1): Was fifth behind a next-out winner in a higher-level claimer at Churchill last month. The drop should help, and he certainly fits on speed figures, but I’m wondering if he’s at his best going a bit shorter, as some of his best efforts were going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita; #10 OCEAN ATLANTIQUE (4-1): Doesn’t draw well for this event, but hasn’t finished worse than third in five starts this season and was a two-back winner against similar at Aqueduct. If he gets some pace to run at, he could certainly be heard from late. 

R9

With the Angels (MTO)
Proctor Street
Sandtrap

#7 PROCTOR STREET (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open renewal of the De La Rose, which moreso resembles a Grade 2 or Grade 3 than a listed stakes event. She’s shown she loves Saratoga, and while I think she’s a bit better with Lasix, she’s still quite good without it. This feels like the right level and the right racetrack, and that’s a tough combination to go against; #4 SANDTRAP (3-1): Didn’t do much running when sixth in the Grade 1 Just a Game, but her stateside debut two back was excellent. Flavien Prat gets the call for Chad Brown, and a return to her two-back form would put her right in the mix; #9 DEEP SATIN (5-1): Won this race last year (albeit against a much weaker group) and comes in after running fourth in the Just a Game. Like my top pick, this is a mare with a strong local record getting back to what’s probably the right level, and her best form gives her a shot.

R10

Donna Romano
Tenacious Child
Will of a Womanne

#2 DONNA ROMANO (2-1): Is a puzzling favorite in the finale. I usually don’t love horses coming in off of long layoffs and taking such huge class drops. However, she gets Lasix for the first time, her workouts look fine, and these are aggressive connections not afraid to lose horses via the claim box. I want more value than I’m likely to get, but she’s the most probable winner; #4 TENACIOUS CHILD (3-1): Presents an alternative to the chalk, but she’s another taking a big drop after four straight uninspiring races. Three of those were on turf, though, and she’s reunited with Flavien Prat, who guided her to a runaway score in February at Aqueduct; #8 WILL OF A WOMANNE (12-1): Has been competitive at this level and probably didn’t get the trip she wanted last time. She’s more of a stalking-type, but was on the lead and finished fourth. Zayas gets the mount again, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he allows her to sit back and make a run on the turn.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $988

What happened on Sunday at Saratoga was disgraceful, and everyone involved bears some of the blame. By all accounts, there were multiple issues with the 2-year-old race initially carded at a mile on the turf with a large field, and it probably never should have been written. This race, however, was in the condition book weeks ahead of time, and acting as though jockeys or agents simply didn’t read or consider the conditions until a few days before the race seems naive, at best.

The race got changed, the Pick Six sequence was cancelled, and those who spent hours poring over a Pick Six carryover got the shaft. Between stuff like this happening far too often, CAW’s running rampant at tracks from coast to coast, decisions being made that often make very little sense to the average enthusiast, and several venues closer to closing than we’d like, it’s been hard to be a horse racing fan at times.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the NYRA/FOX broadcast of the events didn’t run from the issue. I thought Richard Migliore’s explanation was spot-on, and as a player, I appreciated those on the desk empathizing with viewers and admitting that something rotten had occurred. In an industry where the problem is rarely the problem, and much more often people discussing the problem (ask me about Del Mar sometime), the hosts, producers, and crew didn’t insult their audience the way other parts of the industry did. That’s not nothing.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Kiamba was nowhere in the second race (and I couldn’t have given you the winner without the “ALL” button). I dropped $40.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll lean on #5 TIZMARKUS in the third, and the double starting there and finishing in the wide-open fourth seems to have some value in it. I’ll single Tizmarkus to start $10 doubles that end with #1 ARABIAN POWER and #7 MOUNT SOPRIS, and in $5 doubles that end with #4 HE’S A PIPER and #9 FRANKLIN DELANO.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Tizmarkus, Race 3
Longshot: Mount Sopris, Race 4

R1

Mr Percy
Lord Flintshire
Famous Figure

#1 MR PERCY (9/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but he had some excuses last time out and was a very good second at this level two back. In addition, he’s shown he can run well without Lasix, which is a major question mark for some of his rivals in the Jonathan Kiser; #7 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which came off an 11-month break. He goes back to the steeplechase ranks off of that two-mile tightener (yes, a two-mile prep!), and if he runs back to his race over fences last April, he’s a player; #6 FAMOUS FIGURE (2-1): Was an impressive winner last time out and may go favored, but I have some reservations. He ran on Lasix for the first time that day, and he won’t get that medication here. His overseas form is fine, and he could win, but he may need to replicate the last-out effort to do it, and that’s no cinch.

R2

Term Premium
In Front Runner
Irish Goodbye

#2 TERM PREMIUM (2-1): Showed potential in his first start downstate when he rallied from 11 lengths back to nearly get the job done. He draws well for powerhouse connections here, and while closers are sometimes at a disadvantage in races out of the Wilson chute, any sort of a logical step forward makes him the one to beat; #6 IN FRONT RUNNER (4-1): Was a one-paced fourth in his debut at Gulfstream, which came going two turns in the slop. That wasn’t an easy spot, for several reasons, and while I’d like him more with a more inside-drawn post, he’s another eligible to move forward; #4 IRISH GOODBYE (5/2): Rallied to be second last time out after breaking very, very slowly and may appreciate some added distance. He wasn’t flattered by that day’s winner not running particularly well last week, but this one did have an excuse that day, at least.

R3

Tizmarkus
Lucky Dude
Princip

#5 TIZMARKUS (5/2): Has run well in a pair of starts for this barn and cuts back to one turn, which is probably his preferred trip. He’s got some tactical speed, which helps, and the rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., is a big one; #6 LUCKY DUDE (3-1): Has been consistent the last few years and generally runs the same race every time out. This is probably a tougher group than what he’s been facing at Parx, but Kendrick Carmouche knows him well, and at least we know his form can travel outside Philadelphia; #9 PRINCIP (5-1): Was the beneficiary of a race that completely fell apart last time out. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is notable, and he’d certainly benefit from a fast pace, but that was his first win in a while and he may need quite a bit to go right.

R4

Disparate Impact (MTO)
Arabian Power
Mount Sopris

#1 ARABIAN POWER (7/2): Has a pair of solid seconds since switching to turf for Brad Cox and figures to be the main speed in this two-turn race on the inner turf. Irad has gotten to know him a bit over the last few outings, and he’s likely to be the one they have to catch; #7 MOUNT SOPRIS (10-1): Merits a look at a price. His last-out effort came after a break of nearly nine months, and it’s safe to assume something went wrong two back given the long layoff. His debut here wasn’t bad, he drops in class, and he gets Lasix for the first time; #9 FRANKLIN DELANO (5/2): Is another running for a tag for the first time, and he adds blinkers for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. His best race came over this turf course, but his two efforts this year weren’t particularly inspiring and the outside post is a bit of a problem.

R5

Extravaganzoo (AE)
J’ray’s Jewel
Seismic Activity

#13 EXTRAVAGANZOO (4-1): Needs a few scratches to draw in but merits respect if she’s able to run. She flashed genuine speed first time out in a race at Keeneland that featured several strong efforts. This race against New York-breds is almost certainly a drop in class, and she’s certainly eligible to improve with a start under her belt; #4 J’RAY’S JEWEL (9/2): Debuted with a solid second on dirt downstate, but she’s bred for turf and gets it here. This daughter of Oscar Performance and multiple Grade 3 winner J’ray should relish this trip, especially after debuting for a barn whose runners tend to need a race to get going; #5 SEISMIC ACTIVITY (8-1): Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and sold for $270,000 at auction across the street last year. Her works are fine, and while we’re not sure if young sire Epicenter can throw turf horses yet, her bottom-side pedigree is all-turf (her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1-winning turfer Bigger Picture).

R6

Ati Girl
Jadorlinija
Pippa Adds

#4 ATI GIRL (5/2): May be entering “now or never” territory in her ninth career start, but her last two efforts at Churchill did show some improvement. She was a close-up second in both spots while showing improved tactical speed beneath Irad, who hops back aboard here; #7 JADORLINIJA (6-1): Picked up a minor award when third in her first try since September last time out. Her pedigree says she’ll love this two-turn trip, and she’s another that could sit an ideal stalking trip a few lengths behind the early speed; #6 PIPPA ADDS (3-1): Is another trying two turns for the first time, and she’s run into some good ones to this point in her career. The last-out runner-up came back to graduate at next asking, which helps her. The question is, does she really want to go two turns?

R7

I’m Worthy (MTO)
English Law
Vintage Vino

#2 ENGLISH LAW (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a pretty wide-open turf race. He drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections, and while he hasn’t won in a while, he’s also been going against much, much better horses, and inside-drawn speed can be hard to go against on the inner; #6 VINTAGE VINO (4-1): Also drops in for a tag, and this one gets a big rider switch to Irad. He was one-paced when fifth in a pretty fast race for the level last time out, and while I think he may want even more ground, he’s got back form that would make him competitive; #8 SICILIAN DEFENSE (9/2): Runs for a red-hot barn and may be the controlling speed in this spot. Jose Ortiz has ridden him very aggressively in the past, and while there are genuine stamina concerns, it wouldn’t be shocking if he’s the one they have to catch.

R8

Max Money
Gethsemane
Palacios

#6 MAX MONEY (7/2): Tried stakes company last time out and faded to finish a distant sixth. This is a much, much better level for him, and he’ll get to run with Lasix again. The only other time he’s had it was in his two-back score, easily the best race he’s ever run; #5 GETHSEMANE (4-1): Has run consistently well in each of his last five starts across three different tracks. He most recently chased a much-the-best winner last time out at Churchill, and the slight cutback to the Wilson chute may be what he wants; #7 PALACIOS (5/2): Has some strong speed figures but hits me as an underlay at the likely price. His running lines tell a story that says he finds trouble, and outside-drawn closers are sometimes up against it at this quirky route.

R9

Roasted Reds
Force of Mischief (AE)
Island Charm

#6 ROASTED REDS (3-1): Didn’t have an ideal trip first time out in a race several runners in here exit. She was wide that day while rating behind a pretty slow pace. Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and she’s certainly eligible to move forward at second asking; #13 FORCE OF MISCHIEF (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but drops in for a tag and adds blinkers after showing some speed against better horses last time out. The post won’t be ideal, but if she runs, there’s reason to believe she can improve; #12 ISLAND CHARM (5-1): Is another that lost the post position draw, but she’s been very competitive at this level and was most recently an OK third downstate. She’s got other speed to clear, but if she can somehow get over and minimize the ground loss, she’s another potential contender in the Thursday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,028

Saturday’s early double showed one of the reasons fans love this meet so much. Midnight Still and Angel of Kirk were chalky winners, but both were very, very impressive, and they’re 2-year-olds with what appear to be pretty high ceilings. It wouldn’t be surprising to see those two in races like the Spinaway and Hopeful on closing weekend.

If those races weren’t enough for you, we’ve got three 2-year-old maiden races on tap for Sunday. If pedigrees and workouts are your thing, it’s one of the best cards of the meet, and there’s plenty to digest as you go through the nine-race program. 

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Uptown Rosie broke sharply and set a fast pace, but had little left when the field turned for home. I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: My strongest opinion comes in the second, where I think #1 KIAMBA will be very tough. I’m keeping it simple with a $40 win bet, and I hope we get the 5/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Kiamba, Race 2
Longshot: Grace of Monaco, Race 5

R1

Tinian
Cut Down the Nets
Hammerin Henry

#10 TINIAN (3-1): Sold for $210,000 at auction earlier this year and has been working well for trainer Mark Casse ahead of his debut in the Sunday lid-lifter. The far-outside post is a great one for a young horse to have, and if he runs to his morning drills, he could be a very nice horse; #2 CUT DOWN THE NETS (9/2): May have lost his unveiling at the gate, and he finished a distant fourth behind next-out stakes winner Booked. This barn’s horses often need a race or two to get going, and the experience edge he has on his rivals is a plus; #5 HAMMERIN HENRY (7/2): Debuts for powerhouse connections and boasts a string of solid workouts downstate. His bottom-side pedigree is sneaky strong, as his dam was a first-out winner and his lineage traces back to third dam Silent Turn, who won multiple graded stakes races.

R2

Kiamba
Higher Force (MTO)
Midnight Concerto

#1 KIAMBA (5/2): Was disappointing last time out, but that may have simply been a “bounce” off of a solid third in the Grade 3 Sheepshead Bay. At a minimum, her form here and in France says she wants this 12-furlong distance, and that’s a major question mark for many others. If she bounces back, she’ll be very tough to beat; #3 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (4-1): Has run well twice this season and was most recently second in the Mount Vernon here last month. She stretches out to a marathon distance, but there’s no doubting she’s in career-best form coming into this one; #6 PRETTY TAPIT (8-1): Graduated by daylight last time out at Churchill going this distance and faces winners for the first time. I’m a bit skeptical of the field she faced that day, but the pedigree says this is the trip she wants, and perhaps the light’s come on.

R3

Bellacose
Moonlight Gal
Cararra

#4 BELLACOSE (5/2): Is a tepid top pick that I’m not crazy about. She hasn’t run since August, she’s run just five times in two years, and she’s clearly had her issues (which may explain the big drop in class). However, she loves Saratoga, has run her best races here, and faces no monsters. If she’s anywhere close to the horse she was two back, she probably wins; #3 MOONLIGHT GAL (8-1): Comes up in class after topping non-winners of two last time out. She’s done her best work at this quirky seven-furlong trip, though, as both of her wins have come at this distance. Add in her ability to pass others late, and there’s stuff to like (especially given the likely price); #9 CARARRA (8-1): Takes a big drop in search of her first win in multiple years. However, one of her two victories came in her lone Saratoga start to date, and this is easily the lowest level she’s ever run at. The presence of Joel Rosario doesn’t hurt, either.

R4

Liam’s Law
And the Runner Is
Suspend

#2 LIAM’S LAW (8-1): Was one of a few that had rough trips in his debut on May 24th in a race that was rained off the turf. However, he gets the grass here (which he’s bred to love, being by Colonel Liam and out of a Kitten’s Joy mare), Flavien Prat stays on for Todd Pletcher, and he’s certainly eligible to improve with experience; #11 AND THE RUNNER IS (5-1): Is one of two Mark Casse trainees in here, and he’s another bred up and down for the lawn. This son of Oscar Performance and Grade 2 winner Linda attracts Irad Ortiz, but will have to overcome a terrible far-outside post position going two turns on the inner; #3 SUSPEND (10-1): May need a race (as Bill Mott trainees often do), but given his pedigree, this is certainly the right spot. He’s by Tapit and out of multiple graded stakes winner Lull, who herself has a dam who’s kin to Grade 1 winners Saint Liam and Funtastic, among others.

R5

Grace of Monaco
Immortal Poet
Americanexpression

#3 GRACE OF MONACO (12-1): Has real appeal at anywhere close to the morning line price. She takes one of the biggest drops in racing (from a maiden special weight to a maiden claimer), and she’s bred to like the turf. Sire Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby, but his offspring tend to run well on the grass, and if this one relishes it, she may be the one to catch; #8 IMMORTAL POET (6-1): Is another class-dropper with early speed, and she makes her second start off a long layoff. The pace she pressed last time was a fast one, she had every right to need that race, and she should be more fit second off the bench; #7 AMERICANEXPRESSION (6-1): Ran OK in her debut, when she finished third against straight maidens over the synthetic at Gulfstream. I’m honestly a bit surprised she shows up for a tag off of that effort, but this barn, while small, knows how to spot horses.

R6

Limes Don’t Lie
Alyeska
Strong State

#3 LIMES DON’T LIE (7/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, but despite being a bigger price on the morning line, this is the one I like. She was never beating Scottish Lassie last time out, and she wasn’t able to sit her desired trip given the small field. There’s speed in here, so she should be able to sit back and make one big late run; #7 ALYESKA (9/5): Makes her first start in nearly 10 months here, but she’s shown serious potential. Her win before going to the sidelines was a good one. The question is, is she ready to go off the bench, and even if she is, can she turn the tables on her stablemate, who beat her two back at this route?; #4 STRONG STATE (4-1): Didn’t break well last time in her first try since November, and I’m willing to give her a pass for that race. Prat rides for Al Stall, who merits respect whenever he ships a runner in, and she’s another that could benefit from a pace meltdown.

R7

Five Grand
Road Show
Saratoga Tea

#6 FIVE GRAND (5/2): Is a tepid top pick in a 2-year-old maiden race with nine debuting runners where I’d spread in multi-race exotics. This one, though, is a full brother to a nice horse named Five G, who’s won multiple stakes races, and Prat, who likely had options, chooses to ride this George Weaver trainee; #8 ROAD SHOW (7/2): Doesn’t have the flashiest pedigree, but the two recent four-furlong drills here look very, very sharp. Jose Ortiz takes the call for Mark Casse, and they’re both off to great starts at this stand; #3 SARATOGA TEA (9/2): Comes in off of two strong gate works for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, and those came a few months after he sold for $250,000 at the OBS sale. Sire Yaupon has been throwing a lot of precocious horses, but this barn isn’t necessarily known for success with first-time starters.

R8

Golden Symphony (MTO)
Highlands Way
The Paddock Pastor

#6 HIGHLANDS WAY (6-1): Sold for $1.35 million at auction in 2023, didn’t race until December, and came back in a maiden claimer for a $55,000 tag, only to circle most of the field and win going away. Maybe he didn’t beat much, but maybe he’s just taken longer to come around, and maybe his connections will be glad nobody reached in to claim him; #12 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (8-1): Generally doesn’t get bet, but he’s run several very good races over this turf course. He just missed Belmont week and should once again get a pace to run at. The question is, can Jaime Rodriguez work out a trip from this far-outside post?; #3 GENE AND JUDE (8-1): Appeals to me the most out of the likely frontrunners. He was third in the race my second choice exits, but he didn’t get to save much ground that day. He should clear the two horses to his inside, and that may put him in an ideal spot.

R9

Twenty One Red
Down the Field
Golden Joker

#11 TWENTY ONE RED (7/2): Is another reluctant top pick in a race where I’d recommend going deep if you can afford it. His record says he’s 0-for-11, and I usually don’t love horses like that, but he’s a turf horse that spent the winner running on dirt at Aqueduct. His last-out effort was solid, and he ran second in his lone prior try over this turf course; #5 DOWN THE FIELD (6-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose numbers with debuting turfers aren’t great. However, his works are solid enough, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and among others, he’s a half-brother to Candied, a filly who won a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old; #6 GOLDEN JOKER (8-1): Had a terrible trip in his debut and is certainly logical to improve at second asking. He’s received the ultimate equipment change since his last start, as he’ll run as a first-time gelding in the Sunday finale, and a cleaner trip could give him a chance to graduate.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058

Sometimes, sanity prevails.

If you read Friday’s bankroll blurb, you saw me present some facts about the organization known as Horseracing Wrongs. Their leader had been booked for an event at the Saratoga Springs Public Library, and outcry was swift, harsh, and, in some cases, coming from people way more important than little old me. As a result, the library rescinded its support of the event Friday morning.

To reiterate, if horse racing isn’t your thing, that’s okay (provided, of course, we can agree that “horse racing” is two words, not one!). We can have rational, reasonable differences without coming to blows over it. However, the man who was set to appear at this event has never once prioritized rationality or reason in his dealings with the horse racing world. Attendees would have been subjected to a one-sided, sensationalized view without anyone around to provide hard evidence to the contrary.

Presenting different opinions on a topic is one thing, but this is the sort of stuff that helps no one. I wish it didn’t take so much public backlash to get there, but good on the Saratoga Springs Public Library for making the smart decision.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Three fizzled early, as I was right to bet against a few vulnerable favorites in the sixth but had the wrong alternatives. I dropped $24.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: To be honest, most of this card hits me as chalky. However, the more I look at #6 UPTOWN ROSIE in the sixth, the more I like her. I’ll keep things simple with a $30 win bet, and I hope we get that 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Uptown Rosie, Race 6
Longshot: Tizlawry, Race 11

R1

Midnight Still
Decimation
Harbaugh

#1 MIDNIGHT STILL (6/5): Rated and passed horses in his debut at Churchill and is eligible to move forward at second asking in the Saturday lid-lifter. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride for Kinnon LaRose, whose name may sound familiar to fans of a Capital District college basketball team (he spent his freshman year at Siena before transferring to Sacred Heart); #3 DECIMATION (7/2): Showed a lot of speed at first asking before losing interest entirely in the stretch. I’m not sure what happened that day, but young horses sometimes do weird things as they learn, and if he’s matured since then, he may be the one to catch; #5 HARBAUGH (5/2): Hammered for $450,000 at the OBS sale in April and has been training well for Mark Casse. Sire Not This Time has been red-hot of late, and he must’ve “breezed” (I use that term loosely) very impressively in order to sell for such a hefty sum.

R2

Angel of Kirk
Hot Fries
Aerial Affair

#5 ANGEL OF KIRK (5/2): Sold for $500,000 last year at Keeneland and debuts for the tag team of Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. Sire Yaupon has been throwing precocious runners, this one’s dam was a Grade 2-placed sprinter, and she’s been working like a horse with some potential; #3 HOT FRIES (7/2): Makes her first start for Steve Asmussen and has the pedigree to be very, very fast. She’s by Jackie’s Warrior and out of a mare named Fast Gator, a multiple stakes-winning sprinter. This barn’s 2-year-olds sometimes need a race to get going, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see she’s a runner; #7 AERIAL AFFAIR (3-1): Is a daughter of Flightline with several very fast works coming into her first career start. The outside draw is a plus, but my hesitation is that this barn’s horses often aren’t fully-cranked at first asking. If this half-sister to Grade 1 winner Bella Sofia is ready to go, though, she’ll have every chance.

R3

Speightful Lily
Army Gal
Next On Stage

#6 SPEIGHTFUL LILY (6/5): Had every right to need a race last time coming off of a layoff of more than 13 months, but she was a game second in a fast race during Belmont week. Prat rides back, and any sort of a step forward second off the bench would make her a formidable favorite; #5 ARMY GAL (9/5): Is one of two in here for Linda Rice, and while it’s safe to assume she’s had her issues (with just one start since December), her sheet includes some fast races against some nice horses. This isn’t the toughest race for the level, and if the chalk misfires, she stands to benefit; #1 NEXT ON STAGE (3-1): Completes the 1-2 punch for Linda Rice and comes in off of a failed turf experiment. She gets back to her preferred surface here, and while the rail draw is a tricky one, she’s at least shown some tactical speed in the past.

R4

Georgia Magic (MTO)
Intellect
Sounds Like a Plan

#4 INTELLECT (4-1): Kept strong company last year when picking up checks in three graded stakes races here. He hasn’t really moved forward this year, which gives me pause, but perhaps a move forward third off the bench is in the offing; #1 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN (4-1): Has gotten pretty darned good and capitalized on a perfect front-running trip here last month. This is a tougher spot, and he may face some opposition early, but the rail draw is ideal for what he wants to do, and they’ll likely have him to catch; #6 ALAN TURING (10-1): Has established himself as a consistent performer and comes back to the grass after a win in the Commentator on dirt at a price. He’s shown he can run well on the lawn, though, and his tactical speed could allow him to sit an ideal trip at a price.

R5

Sunna
Italian Soiree
In Our Time

#4 SUNNA (2-1): Has a very simple game and will likely get to play it in the Grade 2 Caress. She wants to be on or near the lead, and when that happens, she’s tough to beat. This field has quality to it, but it doesn’t have a ton of other early speed. She could sit an absolute dream trip as a result; #3 ITALIAN SOIREE (7/2): Was a fast-closing second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, and I think it’s safe to say her two-back clunker at Churchill is a throwout. She’s simply not a two-turn horse, and if she gets a pace to sit off of, she could be heard from late; #6 IN OUR TIME (5/2): Ran very well two back to take the Grade 2 Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland and may have had an excuse in the Intercontinental, where she didn’t break well and may not have sat her desired trip. The outside post should give her every chance at a strong break, and her best could absolutely win this.

R6

Uptown Rosie
Secret Connection
D’muehl

#6 UPTOWN ROSIE (6-1): Turned some heads in May to sell for $300,000 despite a fairly modest pedigree, and her most recent drill was a big gate work. She’s kin to a runner who placed in stakes races as a 2-year-old, and given the big field, I think we’ll get a very appealing price; #4 SECRET CONNECTION (5/2): Has been working steadily for a barn that knows how to get first-time starters ready to go. She sold for $90,000 at the OBS sale this year, and her bottom-side pedigree is solid, as her dam is one of 10 winners thrown by her second dam; #7 D’MUEHL (5-1): Makes her debut for Brad Cox, whose barn always merits respect in baby races this time of year. Her works downstate are solid, and she was impressive enough as a yearling to hammer for $105,000 across the street. 

R7

Gewurztraminer (MTO)
Yinzer
Unit Economics

#4 YINZER (3-1): Is a tepid top pick as one of many contenders coming in off of a long break. We haven’t seen him since November, but it looks like he could be the lone speed in this two-turn inner turf race. Given the way this course can play, and the fact that his best form is quite good, I’ll hope he’s ready to go; #2 UNIT ECONOMICS (5/2): Hasn’t run since February of 2025, yet may go favored largely due to his connections. This Chad Brown trainee showed some potential before going to the bench, and while I’m concerned about his late-running style given the likely race shape, he certainly fits on speed figures; #7 CANDYTOWN (8-1): Had a chance to shake off some rust last month, when he trailed in his first try since November. This barn has been uncharacteristically cold up here, but he ran well in some pretty big spots late last year and could contend if he gets back to that form.

R8

Pair of Socks (MTO)
Bosun
Mission Improbable

#2 BOSUN (7/2): Returns after a layoff of more than five months, but he gets back to his preferred route, where he won a pair of races a season ago. He’s got a few recent bullets at Keeneland, and that makes me think he’s ready to go in this spot; #5 MISSION IMPROBABLE (8-1): Came back running downstate last month, when he capitalized on a race that fell apart and got the money at a big price. This is a tougher spot, but it’s also possible he’s getting better as a 4-year-old, and Santana riding back is a big plus; #8 GYPSY ART (4-1): Has picked up checks in stakes company and may be putting it all together. His last two efforts at Churchill were both strong ones, and the Wesley Ward barn is off to a very solid start at this stand.

R9

Tricky Business
Toscano
Sunday Boy

#2 TRICKY BUSINESS (2-1): Debuted impressively enough for his connections to take a try at the Pegasus at Monmouth. His race was over at the start that day, but he comes back to New York-bred company, gets to run with Lasix, and may sit a dream trip near the pace coming out of the Wilson chute; #4 TOSCANO (5/2): Came back with a fourth-place finish in a solid race for the level last time out, and that was his first race in nearly a year. This barn has been pretty chilly up here of late, but he’s certainly eligible to improve second off the bench stretching out to a distance he’s won at before; #6 SUNDAY BOY (6-1): Comes back to the dirt after picking up a few minor awards on the grass. He pulled off an upset in a $500,000 stakes race going seven furlongs last year, and while he may be pace-dependent, the rider switch to Jose Ortiz makes me think he’s well-meant.

R10

Kinetic (MTO)
Fort George
Minaret Station

#4 FORT GEORGE (9/5): Looks very difficult to go against in the Grade 2 Bowling Green. He got very good in Dubai over the winter, where he won a Group 3 event and finished second to Rebel’s Romance in a Group 2. If that version of this horse shows up, the race is probably for second; #6 MINARET STATION (2-1): Hasn’t done much wrong going shorter and stretches out to a marathon distance for the first time. That gives me some pause, as does the short price we’re likely to get, but he’s made the talented Lagynos work twice in his last two outings, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s well-meant; #2 SOLEIL VOLANT (12-1): Has a chance at a minor award at a pretty big price. He has something many in here don’t have, a win at this 11-furlong distance (which came two back at Churchill). Stretching back out to this route should help him, and he’s shown a bit more tactical speed of late, too.

R11

Karsten
Classic Commander
Tizlawry

#5 KARSTEN (3-1): Ran in spurts in his debut, where he went from fifth, to seventh, to third. He ran like a horse that needed the try. He got it, he gets Flavien Prat here, and I’m anticipating a move forward in the nightcap; #2 CLASSIC COMMANDER (8-1): Ran second in the race my top pick exits and seems to have found his form since going to the grass and getting Edgard Zayas. He’s had eight tries, which isn’t ideal, but at least it seems like he’s getting better, and we may get a bit of a price; #7 TIZLAWRY (20-1): Is a candidate to juice up the exotics. He almost certainly needed his last-out clunker off of a long break, and his debut back in November at Aqueduct was actually pretty good. Toss the race where he was vanned off and the race after the five-month layoff, and you have a much more appealing resume.

BANKROLL

(NOTE: The Saratoga Springs Public Library cancelled the event in question Friday morning. The section below was sent Thursday before that development.)

BANKROLL: $1,082

Next week, the Saratoga Springs Public Library will host Patrick Battuello, who runs an organization called Horseracing Wrongs. The library has a right to book whatever guests it wants, I readily admit horse racing (two words, not one!) isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, and I respect those who have rational, reasonable objections to certain parts of the industry. Since that event is presenting a one-sided view of certain matters, though, I’m using this space to present facts you won’t hear if you attend.

People should know that Horseracing Wrongs blatantly deals in misinformation and sensationalism to fuel its own agenda. Battuello’s stances on an eventual petless society and the sterilization of racehorses to the point of extinction are reprehensible, and as a writer, that group’s documented disrespect of copyright law also offends me. It’s also worth noting that, as a restaurant owner, Battuello proudly served meat options, which…kind of makes all the “animal rights” stuff fall flat, doesn’t it?

Donna Brothers wrote an excellent piece detailing all the issues with Battuello and his group, and an organization called Horse Racing Facts did the same. Both articles are well worth your time. I cannot say the same about next week’s event at the library.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I got exactly the trip I wanted with Opulent Restraint in the sixth, but she dropped anchor in the stretch and I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: The back half of this card is absolutely fascinating, and I’m going to try to extract some value out of my strongest lean, #5 JACKIE THE JOKER in the eighth. She’s a single to finish $2 Pick Three tickets that start in the sixth and go as follows: 1,2,5 with 1,2,3,6 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Pros and Cons, Race 2
Longshot: Relative Risk, Race 10

R1

Hadrian’s Wall
Commerce
Presidential Power

#1 HADRIAN’S WALL (4/5): Has run second in all three tries to date, and while I understand a lack of interest in him at a very short price, he’s certainly the most likely winner here. He was left with far too much to do last time over a speed-favoring track, and Flavien Prat likely won’t make the same mistake twice; #4 COMMERCE (7/2): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits and showed some tactical speed that day. Bill Mott trainees tend to improve with experience, so it’s not illogical to think he could take a step forward in his third career start; #5 PRESIDENTIAL POWER (5-1): Showed mild late interest in his debut going shorter here last month. He certainly needs to move up on speed figures, but every bit of his pedigree says he wants this two-turn trip, and the rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a notable one.

R2

Pros and Cons
Mary’s Gonna Run
Golden Siren

#1 PROS AND CONS (2-1): Debuted in a tough spot at Gulfstream Park, one that awarded the winner a spot in a race at Royal Ascot. She was a good second that day, and her pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue. Any sort of a step forward makes her the one to beat; #7 MARY’S GUNNA RUN (8/5): Debuted by finishing second in a swiftly-run race downstate. They finished very, very fast that day, and this barn doesn’t often have first-time starters fully cranked. Logical improvement gives her a chance; #2 GOLDEN SIREN (6-1): Is the “other” Mark Casse trainee, but she may have some potential. She sold for $135,000 at auction last summer, and her dam is kin to stakes winners Proven Strategies and Corona Bolt, among others.

R3

B Thedonald
Kenny B
On the Hill

#2 B THEDONALD (8/5): I’d rather not, but this one is very logical coming back to the optional claiming ranks. He was a solid second behind a runaway winner in the Mike Lee here last month after a rough break, and if he’s able to get away cleanly, I think he’ll sit an ideal trip beneath Manny Franco; #5 KENNY BE (5/2): Won easily two back at Aqueduct before chasing a perfect-trip, runaway winner here a few weeks ago. David Duggan’s had him going pretty well as a 4-year-old, and if my top pick finds older company too tough at this stage, this is the one who figures to benefit; #4 ON THE HILL (9/2): Had every right to need his return to the races last time out off of a long break. The start before that break saw him get pulled up and vanned off, so both of those races are throw-outs. This barn isn’t having the best year, but he’s run well over this surface and would benefit from a pace meltdown.

R4

Playa Del Mar (MTO)
Favorable Scenario
Golden Channel

#4 FAVORABLE SCENARIO (9/5): Didn’t have an ideal trip last time, when he rated behind a modest pace in his first try since January. He closed well to be second that day, though, and going to the Mellon turf course (which is a bit more favorable to closers than the inner) should move him forward; #7 GOLDEN CHANNEL (7/2): Has tactical speed and just missed in a first-level allowance at Monmouth last time out. Jose Ortiz likely had several options, but he winds up on this George Weaver trainee, and I think that’s notable; #6 ELNAJD (5/2): Had an eventful journey here last month, when he checked out of the race around the far turn before doing a bit of running in the stretch. I don’t think he was getting to the loose-on-the-lead winner that day, but he’s certainly eligible to improve.

R5

Contrary Thinking
Dapper Moon
Vibrant Express

#4 CONTRARY THINKING (2-1): Did everything but win off the trainer switch to Amelia Green last time. The former Grade 1 rabbit did all the dirty work up front and got nailed on the wire. He certainly looks like the controlling speed here, and I think he makes every pole a winning one; #7 DAPPER MOON (6-1): Ships in for Dallas Stewart, whose trainees must be respected when they come in from Kentucky. He has back races that fit with this bunch, and he didn’t have the best of trips last time out at Churchill; #3 VIBRANT EXPRESS (5/2): Reeled off five wins in a row downstate over the winter and may have been compromised by a sloppy track last time as a disappointing odds-on favorite. Prat rides back for Weaver, and a bounce-back effort would put him in the mix.

R6

Resort
Gum
Loveontheleftbank

#2 RESORT (8-1): Kicks off an intriguing late Pick Five sequence as a potential wire-to-wire threat at a price. There just isn’t much early speed in this inner turf race, and she at least has shown some interest in her last few starts. John Velazquez takes the call, and I’m hoping he gets aggressive; #1 GUM (6-1): Just missed last time out at Laurel and once again draws the rail for Graham Motion. Blinkers go on, which is interesting (and a strong move for this outfit), and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her be a bit more forward; #5 LOVEONTHELEFTBANK (3-1): Is 0-for-8 lifetime and has burned quite a bit of money, including in two prior tries at this level. Her speed figures are competitive, and she wouldn’t be shocking, but I’ll take a mild stand against her here given the likely price.

R7

Sing a Little Song (MTO)
Sadie Earp
Capturing

#3 SADIE EARP (2-1): Is very dangerous when she gets to the lead, and I have to think that’s the plan here. Her last-out wire-to-wire win at Aqueduct off the bench was a sharp effort, and while she jumps up in class, the relative lack of early speed elsewhere in this field could really help her; #1 CAPTURING (6-1): Ran very well three back to clear the first-level condition at Keeneland, and has since gotten some strange trips downstate. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for a Todd Pletcher barn that’s been uncharacteristically cold at Saratoga dating back to Belmont week; #6 QUIET CONFIDENCE (4-1): Hasn’t run since September and returns for a lower-percentage outfit, but she’s probably the other main speed in this field besides my top pick. She won in wire-to-wire fashion at this route back in July, and while the break is a huge question mark, the recent bullet drills hint that she may be ready to run.

R8

Jackie the Joker
Play Good Pay Good
Miss Lao

#5 JACKIE THE JOKER (8/5): Enjoyed quite a bit of success at Aqueduct in the first half of the year, with four wins in eight 2026 outings to date. On paper, this is a move up in class, but the field includes several runners she’s beaten soundly, and the last-out victory was very, very good. If she repeats that effort, the race is probably for second; #6 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD (4-1): Has won two in a row at Finger Lakes and tries deeper waters here at the Spa. This barn doesn’t come up the Thruway for no reason, and Ricardo Santana, Jr., will likely have her forwardly-placed in the early going; #4 MISS LAO (8-1): Broke through for her first win in quite a while last time, but she’s a consistent filly going to a sneaky barn first off the claim. She’s run well at Saratoga in the past, and while this is another technically going up in class, it’s not a particularly intimidating group for the level.

R9

Goodall
Tommy Jo
Carmel Coast

#10 GOODALL (3-1): Is a tepid top pick in a fantastic renewal of the Grade 3 Victory Ride. Her win in the Jersey Girl Belmont week was excellent, and she draws a cushy outside post that should give Flavien Prat plenty of options. If she’s the same horse she was a month ago, she’ll have a big say here; #5 TOMMY JO (7/2): Was one of the best 2-year-old fillies in the country last year, but she went to the sidelines after an uninspiring fifth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was probably going just a bit too far that day, and this trip should hit her between the eyes if she’s ready to run; #3 CARMEL COAST (8-1): Ran very well to be second in the Jersey Girl after breaking poorly, being sent to the front, and setting a very fast pace. She’s got two strong races over this surface, and her two-back win showed that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well.

R10

Ink Lies
Relative Risk
Two Ducks

#4 INK LIES (8/5): Takes one of the biggest drops in the game for Wesley Ward, going from a maiden special weight to a maiden claiming event in the Friday finale. Her two-back effort at Keeneland was a good one, and at least she showed some late interest when taken back last time at Churchill; #7 RELATIVE RISK (15-1): Merits a long look at a big price in his debut. He only sold for $19,000, but sire Flameaway has thrown some precocious runners and his bottom-side pedigree is very good. His dam was a first-out winner, and that mare is kin to stakes winner Joevia and stakes-placed 2-year-old Ready for Peace. It also helps that, to be honest, he doesn’t have to be a monster to contend here; #1 TWO DUCKS (5/2): Has earned plenty of checks at this level and will take money, but at 0-for-10 lifetime, I have my doubts. He’s just not the type to pass horses late in races, I’m not sure he’ll be in front turning for home, and his likely price hits me as an underlay.