BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,291.95

It’s closing day, which means it’s time for me to give thanks to a lot of people.

First of all, I need to thank my family and my friends for all of their love and support. I’m writing this while flying back home after a week back east, one that was good for my soul in a lot of different ways. I spent time with my loved ones, I got to see a bunch of people I don’t see much, and, as my father can attest, I even signed a handbag with my face on it. Whatever interaction I had with you, know that I love you all (and to the people I missed, sorry; it was a busy few days!). Alicia, I’m coming home, and you won’t have to deal with me working several hours per night again until July (love you very much).

In addition, I need to thank the staff at The Saratogian for having me back for another summer. There aren’t a lot of people doing the things I do anymore. The number of published handicappers picking and analyzing every race, every day, for the entire meet, seems to get smaller every year. Continuing to be one of them is an honor.

Finally, I’d like to thank you, the reader. This has been a record-breaking summer, as my little website, AndrewChampagne.com, has more than doubled its previous record for Saratoga traffic (thanks, Google!). It’s also been the first meet where my Substack, The Smart Money, has hosted my content (I launched it because Twitter is…well, Twitter). Whether you followed along for a few days or have been along for the ride since Belmont week, and whether you’ve picked up a copy of The Pink Sheet or seen my content online, know that I greatly appreciate you taking the time to read my stuff.

We’ve got one more day to make some money. Let’s see what we can do.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I may have alarmed a few people by begging for the wire while coming off my first flight in Chicago, but my pleas were answered as With a Kiss held on in the third. My $100 win bet returned $329.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I love #2 FULLCUP in the 10th (the Funny Cide), and I’m betting accordingly. I’ll have a $50 win bet on him, and he’ll be a single in multi-race exotics, too. I’ll play a 50-cent late Pick Four starting in the ninth that goes as follows: 2,4,8 with 2 with 3,4,7 with 2,5,12. In addition, I’ll play the first three legs of that wager as a $2 Pick Three.

TOTAL WAGERED: $81.50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Fullcup, Race 10
Longshot: Hammerhead, Race 8

R1

Jadorlinija (MTO)
Accent
Miss Nightfall

#7 ACCENT (8/5): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and this is the one I want. She came running late to be a good second behind the classy Eponine, and that was her first defeat in four starts on Lasix. If she runs her usual race in the Monday lid-lifter, I think she’ll be tough to top; #1 MISS NIGHTFALL (5/2): Gets Lasix in her U.S. debut, which always catches my attention. She hasn’t won in a long, long time, but she’s got some back class to her and was most recently second of 24 in a handicap at Royal Ascot; #5 CANDY MOONSHINE (8-1): Has definite stamina questions, but she sure seems like the main speed going two turns on the inner. That’s always dangerous, and the presence of top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche means the likely plan is to go as fast as she can for as long as she can.

R2

Heirsuta
Ready Set Roll
Tookenette

#10 HEIRSUTA (4-1): Sold for $160,000 at auction earlier this year and has been working well for Chad Brown (who sends out a pair of contenders in here). Her dam is kin to, among others, Grade 1-winning turfer Tourist, and she draws a cushy outside post in her unveiling; #2 READY SET ROLL (3-1): Is bred to be precocious, being by Upstart and out of a multiple stakes-winning 2-year-old. Among others, that dam has thrown multiple stakes winner Twirling Queen, and leading rider candidate Manny Franco sees fit to hop aboard; #5 TOOKENETTE (10-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and hits me as an overlay at this morning line price. Her dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner and longtime sire Frost Giant, and the recent four-furlong bullet drill downstate is just one of several works that hints she might have some talent.

R3

Show Time
Sharp Swinger
Two Eagles River

#3 SHOW TIME (5-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in a long, long time, and his usual effort would put him right there in this wide-open optional claimer. He comes in off of a win at Ellis Park where he may not have sat his desired trip, and while whether or not Ellis Park form will travel is a valid question, if it does, he’ll be live; #4 SHARP SWINGER (4-1): May have gone a bit too far last time, when he was sixth of eight going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs. His six-furlong races at Oaklawn this past spring were very good, and his versatility is a genuine plus; #1 TWO EAGLES RIVER (6-1): Topped weaker foes in the slop a few weeks ago and goes first off the claim for Rob Atras. His two local races this summer have been solid efforts, and he’d certainly benefit from a race shape that may include a pretty fast pace.

R4

Bakuto
Sfumato
Plan On It

#6 BAKUTO (3-1): Is one of a few coming into the state-bred ranks after races against open company. That race was won by Classic Rock, one of the members of the Fair Hill Five, and that one’s front-running dominance meant he couldn’t sit a comfortable trip near the pace. There are no such situations here (at least I hope not…), and he’s a logical favorite; #4 SFUMATO (7/2): Cuts back after running a close-up second coming out of the chute, and he may have been best that day. He didn’t break well from an outside post, but came with a run late. He has, however, had gate issues in a few of his starts, and if something goes awry at the start, there isn’t much time to recover; #10 PLAN ON IT (4-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward and doesn’t have to be much in order to contend in this maiden claimer. He’s got a few solid workouts to his credit, and while Ward has been a bit chilly at this meet, few in the game can get first-time starters ready better than him.

R5

Noble Glow
Glow of a Rose
Flying Hawley

#10 NOBLE GLOW (7/2): Came back running last time out, when she was second coming out of the chute in her first try since November. She has every right to move forward off of that effort for Chad Brown, and she was very nearly my best bet of the card; #5 GLOW OF A ROSE (4-1): Also goes second off the bench after a solid return. In her case, she ran well going six furlongs and was beaten less than a length. The recent workouts are sharp, but I’m not 100% sure more distance is really what she wants; #8 FLYING HAWLEY (15-1): Goes out for a Shug McGaughey barn that’s heated up in a big way as the summer draws to a close. This outfit doesn’t usually have firsters fully-cranked, and she’s gotten plenty of time ahead of her second start. If she’s ready, she could get a piece of this at a price.

R6

Secured Landing
Glen Airy
Bernin Hot

#2 SECURED LANDING (5/2): Narrowly held off my second choice last time out after leading from the jump at this route. He once again draws an inside post coming out of the chute, regular rider Kendrick Carmouche has piloted him to four wins since the start of May, and he could once again get comfortable up front; #1 GLEN AIRY (3-1): Came flying late and just missed to his stablemate, who he’ll get another shot against here. Linda Rice has a powerful hand, and this one could win, but closers on the rail sometimes need quite a bit to go right in front of them; #9 BERNIN HOT (6-1): Has to overcome a terrible post, but he’s the most likely opposition to my top pick. With the aggressive Ricardo Santana, Jr., aboard, he’ll likely be sent from the gate. The question is, can he clear this field quickly enough to not be compromised going around the turn?

R7

Shahnameh
Bellissimo d’Oro
Dargham

#9 SHAHNAMEH (4-1): Hammered for $725,000 as a weanling and has been working very, very well for Chad Brown. His dam was a multiple stakes winner, but perhaps she was an even better broodmare. In addition to his dam, by Liam’s Map, she also threw three-time Grade 1 winner Cavorting; #10 BELLISSIMO D’ORO (8-1): Showed a lot of speed first time out before tiring to fifth. That day’s third-place finisher freaked on Saturday, which flatters him, and it’s certainly possible Nick Zito has him more fit ahead of his second lifetime start; #7 DARGHAM (5-1): Hammered for $500,000 at the OBS sale earlier this year and has several solid works for Linda Rice, who isn’t particularly known for first-out success but can get horses ready right away. He’s by Army Mule, and his dam is a full sister to stakes-winning turf sprinter Going to Kukaro, among others.

R8

Neigh Baby (MTO)
Hammerhead
English Law

#6 HAMMERHEAD (8-1): Is a very tepid top pick in a truly puzzling turf route. Many of these are taking steps up in class (possibly for one more two-turn turf race before going to a different configuration at Belmont). This one, meanwhile, has thrived at this distance and beyond, including a Grade 3 win in a marathon at Woodbine. This high-percentage barn doesn’t show up here often, and I’m intrigued; #1 ENGLISH LAW (6-1): Rallied to get the money last time out as a favorite against a weaker group. He steps back up in class here, but at least he has some competitive races against allowance groups on his sheet, and Jose Lezcano has been finding his riding form of late; #4 URGENCY (6-1): Has had a productive summer, as he broke his maiden two back before just missing in his first try against winners. Linda Rice runs him back quickly off the claim, and while this is against higher-level foes, he does exit a race that was pretty fast for the level.

R9

Math Tutor (MTO)
Escapades
Ambassador Blue

#4 ESCAPADES (7/2): Ran off the screen against maiden claimers and was claimed that day by Linda Rice. It’s an ambitious spot, to be sure, but given his relative inexperience, he could very well have more room to improve, and while he went wire-to-wire last time out, I don’t think he necessarily needs the lead in order to run well; #8 AMBASSADOR BLUE (9/2): Has a history of finding trouble, but he ran fairly well last time at this level and route, saving ground to be third behind a few nice horses. This barn has had a long summer, but if there’s any sort of pace meltdown, this one is probably the most likely beneficiary; #2 LIGHT FANTASTIC (3-1): Went wire-to-wire against an overmatched field of restricted claimers last time out, and Brad Cox somehow kept this one in his barn. This is another taking a significant jump in class, but his sheet looks miles better if you toss his two-turn clunker two starts back.

R10

Fullcup
Scramjet
Professor Plum

#2 FULLCUP (2-1): Did everything right in his debut and won going away for a barn whose first-time starters usually aren’t ready to roll. I’ve been waiting for him to run back, the Funny Cide is a very logical spot, and if he moves forward, I think he’ll be very tough to beat; #5 SCRAMJET (9/5): Showed some grit in his debut, when he dug in and managed to get the job done at a bit of a price. There was some moisture in the track that day, and I’m not sure what he beat in that spot, but he’s another that wouldn’t be a shocking winner; #1 PROFESSOR PLUM (6-1): Came flying late at first asking, which isn’t something we see often. That day’s runner-up won at next asking, and while the lack of early speed combined with the rail draw isn’t ideal, Franco sees fit to ride back and at least we know he can pass others, which is often a question mark with young horses.

R11

Chief Wallabee (MTO)
Siyouincanada
Glavine

#7 SIYOUINCANADA (7/2): Set a fast pace in the Saranac two back before getting a very, very strange ride last time out. The presence of Kendrick Carmouche hints that he’ll be back to his front-running ways in the Gio Ponti, and if he’s able to dictate terms going two turns on the inner, he could be hard to catch; #3 GLAVINE (5-1): Tired going longer against better horses in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby and cuts back to what seems like his preferred trip. He earned minor awards in the Saranac and Grade 3 Pennine Ridge, and between the class relief and the preferred distance, I think he’s live; #4 LYNEHAM (4-1): Ships in from Europe, where he’s tried some tough spots in France and England. He was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths by the classy Shayem earlier this year at Newmarket, and while this is far from a bad race for the level, it may very well represent shallower waters compared to the ones he’s been swimming in.

R12

My Lil Army Girl
Copper Caduceus
Avery’s Wonderland

#5 MY LIL ARMY GIRL (7/2): Should finally get to run on turf after back-to-back prior races this summer were moved to the main track. She also takes a drop in class to the maiden claiming level, and she ran very well against similar three and four back downstate; #12 COPPER CADUCEUS (4-1): Has raced once since April, and coming back off the layoff running for a tag isn’t ideal. However, her April race was very solid, and her two turf races last year at Aqueduct were fine. If she’s ready to go and this isn’t simply a pre-Belmont dump, she’ll be a contender (provided she can save ground from the far-outside post); #2 AVERY’S WONDERLAND (5-1): Very nearly got the money last time out, when she pounced turning for home but got run down in the final strides. That was easily the best race she’s ever run, and if she can duplicate that effort, she could be right there, but that’s no certainty; thanks very much for reading my content, and I’ll see you next year!

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,062.95

Seeing jockeys interact with kids at Saratoga is good for the soul. In a sport that doesn’t do as much as it should to attract new fans and keep them coming back, it’s outstanding to see world-class athletes give boys, girls, and their families meaningful moments.

Several years ago, there were rumors that the NYRA upper brass wanted to build a “jockey house” of sorts atop the Saratoga paddock, similar to the structure that exists at Santa Anita Park in California. Like several other rumors from this time period that had varying degrees of steam behind them, I am immensely thankful that this did not happen.

I readily admit some things about places we love are bound to change with time. The accessibility fans have at the Spa should never be one of them.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Best bet Liam’s Law won, but the odds got killed when the With Anticipation scratched down to a three-horse field. Even though everything else fizzled when Joy of Life was fourth in the fifth, though, I did still make a slight profit. $56 in post-scratch bets returned $60.25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I sure hope we get the 3-1 morning line price on #5 WITH A KISS in the third, because the more I look at her, the more I really like her (honestly, she probably should’ve been my best bet of the day). I’ll have a $100 win bet on her in hopes that she’s ready to go off the bench for Todd Pletcher.

TOTAL WAGERED: $100.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Noble Factor, Race 6
Longshot: Blamicker, Race 9

R1

Warnock
Disparate Impact
The Standard

#4 WARNOCK (9/2): Takes a drop in class in the Sunday lid-lifter and goes turf-to-dirt for Joe Sharp. He chased a few next-out winners in his unveiling, and he comes into this one off of a few very solid local workouts. I’m expecting a move forward, and that could get him the money; #8 DISPARATE IMPACT (3-1): Cuts back to a sprint after finishing fourth coming out of the chute a few weeks ago. He takes a slight drop, as he’ll run for a lower claiming tag for trainer Linda Rice, who may be in contention for a trainer’s title at the meet; #9 THE STANDARD (5/2): May very well go favored, but I have some doubts. He was probably supposed to win two back, and he followed that up with a very disappointing effort a few weeks ago. He has back figures that fit, but it’s not like he lays over this field, and I’ll take a mild stand against him given his likely price.

R2

Play With Fire
Unreasonable
Pop Art

#4 PLAY WITH FIRE (8/5): Came back off a long layoff with a strong second behind a stakes-caliber horse last time out. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s also been running against much better horses. Flavien Prat being elsewhere isn’t ideal, but Manny Franco’s far from a slouch; #6 UNREASONABLE (2-1): Suffered a bad beat least time out, when she led in the waning stages before being nailed at the wire. Both of her last two outings were solid, and her tactical speed could be a plus considering a relative lack of early speed signed on; #5 POP ART (8-1): Probably represents the main speed and exits a distant fourth going a mile here last month. That was off a bit of a break, and perhaps she needed the race. Her two and three-back efforts were both winning ones, and maybe she can dictate terms and hold on for a piece of it.

R3

With a Kiss
Next On Stage
Star Actress

#5 WITH A KISS (3-1): Won her debut impressively and hasn’t raced since, but she’s been working steadily and swiftly for Todd Pletcher ahead of her first try since October. This regally-bred daughter of Gun Runner and Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia gets Lasix and John Velazquez, and if she’s ready to run, look out; #4 NEXT ON STAGE (7/2): Was a good-looking two-back winner before finishing a one-paced third after going up in class. She’s entered to be claimed here in her return to this level, Manny Franco once again rides back, and this consistent mare with 22 top-three finishes in 31 career starts has some appeal; #2 STAR ACTRESS (6-1): Drops in out of graded stakes races and was most notably third in the Grade 1 Ashland earlier this season. Cutting back in distance could help her, and she’s run some of her better races with Lasix (which she gets for the first time since early-June in this spot).

R4

Mashallah
Goodall
Mythical

#3 MASHALLAH (7/5): Has risen through the ranks with runaway scores here and at Colonial. The Grade 3 Prioress is her first try in the graded ranks, but she looks like one heck of a prospect, and given her relative inexperience, she could still have room to improve (which is a scary thought for her rivals); #4 GOODALL (8/5): Was third in the Grade 1 Test behind Explora, and this spot likely represents a class drop. I wonder if she’s plateaued a bit, but her usual race is definitely good enough to make her a major player; #1 MYTHICAL (9/2): Has several stakes wins to her credit and didn’t run badly when fourth in a turf experiment last time out. She comes back fairly quickly for this one, and the rail draw may not be ideal, but she’s got back races that would make her competitive.

R5

Randee
Inalienable
Father Rick

#6 RANDEE (4-1): Gets a tepid nod in a 2-year-old maiden race that hits me as very wide-open. This son of Cyberknife hammered for $250,000 earlier this year, though, and is kin to stakes-winning 2-year-old sprinter Long Neck Paula, among others. He’s been working consistently for Linda Rice, and I think he’s well-meant; #1 INALIENABLE (7/2): Runs for Chad Brown and merits respect being by Constitution and out of an Uncle Mo mare. He has one workout that jumps off the page, and perhaps he’ll run to it, but the rail draw isn’t ideal and that mare, while stakes-placed, did her best work on turf, not dirt; #5 FATHER RICK (5/2): Sold for $225,000 and has plenty of bottom-side pedigree. His dam is a full to the dam of Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Spielberg, and diving deeper reveals third dam Clear Mandate, a multiple Grade 1 winner that threw, among others, Grade 1 winner Strong Mandate and multiple graded stakes winner Newfoundland.

R6

My Noble Knight (MTO)
Noble Factor
Iron Sight

#5 NOBLE FACTOR (3-1): Stretched out last time out and ran the best race he’s run in quite a while, finishing a close-up second going 1 1/2 miles. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win, and this barn knows how to get runners ready for marathons like this one. Add in the tactical speed he showed last time, and I think there’s a lot to like; #8 IRON SIGHT (2-1): Was probably left with too much to do last time out, when he was ninth of 10 through slow early fractions and finished third. The problem is, he’s found himself in less-than-ideal situations in all five of his lifetime starts. His best could win, I guess, but I’m not rushing to bet him at his likely price; #2 NOBLE DYNASTY (7/2): Looked live to me last weekend, when he stalked early going a bit shorter but could only manage a fourth-place finish. That wasn’t a bad field he faced that day, though, and he does have some back class to him.

R7

All Bright (MTO)
Pelican Pride
Whatta Weekend

#2 PELICAN PRIDE (7/2): Is a reluctant top pick in a race where I truly don’t have a strong opinion. However, she runs for a tag for the first time after two tough starts this summer. Kendrick Carmouche has the call, and if nothing else, she should at least have every chance to break smoothly against a weaker group; #4 WHATTA WEEKEND (12-1): Looks like the main speed in here and ran well two back when second against a similar group. The last-out clunker wasn’t ideal, but channeling the mid-June form would give him every chance to be the one they have to catch, and he may be a price; #8 SKY LOW LOW (8-1): Is 0-for-11, so she’s clearly had some chances, but she’s run her best races over this turf course and has collected two checks here this summer. At a minimum, we know she can pass others, and if she gets a pace to run at, she might be heard from late.

R8

Tacticality
Toscano
Brigadier General

#1 TACTICALITY (1-1): May be the shortest-priced horse on this card, and for good reason. He runs for a $20,000 tag against restricted claimers after splashing home to an easy win at Monmouth. He’s got enough speed to make the most of the inside draw, and I can’t go against him; #8 TOSCANO (4-1): Takes a drop in class to run for a tag after probably losing all chance at the break last time. I don’t love the post position, but he’s got back races at the distance that would make him reasonably competitive, and if you draw a line through the recent clunker, he’s not illogical; #9 BRIGADIER GENERAL (6-1): Tried turf last time out and didn’t look comfortable over that surface. He’s back on dirt, running for his lowest claiming tag, and could very well be the main speed adding blinkers for David Duggan.

R9

Blamicker
Blue Roof Beau
Calling Card

#6 BLAMICKER (6-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes with local rider Andre Worrie in tow, which always makes me give a horse a second look. He’s a six-time winner in 10 starts (with one of the losing efforts being a failed turf experiment), and I think eh could be the speed of the speed. He may make the lead and prove tough to catch at a bit of a price; #8 BLUE ROOF BEAU (6-1): Ran very well to break his maiden first time out before going to the sidelines for three months. He came back in a pretty tough spot and ran like a horse that needed the race. If he’s more ready here and can get back to the horse we saw in May, he could make amends; #5 CALLING CARD (7/2): Has won two in a row in runaway fashion and may very well go favored. However, he cuts back to a six-furlong trip we’ve never seen him navigate before. His best races have come at a mile, which represents a different set of circumstances. Maybe he’ll make me look silly, but I don’t love him at a short price in a large, competitive field.

R10

The Good Life
Lifesong
Booked

#1 THE GOOD LIFE (7/2): Did absolutely everything right in his debut, when he made the lead and powered away in the stretch. Inside-drawn speed is a powerful thing, and I think they may have him to run down in the Grade 1 Hopeful. If he gets comfortable, as he did first time out, that could prove tough to do; #7 LIFESONG (5-1): Stalked and pounced to win his debut at Ellis Park in late-July, and that day’s rider, Axel Concepcion, makes the trip in for this event. Whether or not the Ellis form will travel is anyone’s guess, and that’s why we may get a bit of a price. If it does, and if others go with my top pick, he could get first run; #3 BOOKED (3-1): Won the Grade 3 Sanford before finishing second behind a much-the-best winner in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. It’s cool to see a 2-year-old run in all three big races for juvenile colts and geldings, and he’s certainly talented, but I’m not sure more distance is what he wants.

R11

Buttah (MTO)
Creditworthy
Determined Kingdom

#7 CREDITWORTHY (5/2): Feels like one of only a couple of closers in a renewal of the Disco Partner that’s full of early speed. That gives this Chad Brown trainee a definite tactical advantage, and while the lack of Lasix is a question mark, he hits me as the one a bunch of tired horses may have to fend off late; #4 DETERMINED KINGDOM (5-1): Ran well here in early-June before shipping to Colonial, where he added a win and a close-up second. He’s versatile, with enough tactical speed to lead early but lacking the need to do so that others seem to have. He’s also never been worse than third in three local outings; #8 BITE AND STRIKE (6-1): Has won three in a row since being claimed by Linda Rice, most recently scoring in an off-the-turf event last month. Running without Lasix is a question here, too, but he’s certainly in career-best form for a barn that knows how to keep horses on the right track.

R12

Valentine Crusader (MTO)
Tango Tango
Kotlikoff

#7 TANGO TANGO (8-1): Took a step forward when third last time out after having trouble in his debut. Given the relative inexperience compared to most of these, he may have some room to improve. Given that we’ve seen a lot of these many times before without being impressed, I’ll back the relatively-new face in the Sunday nightcap; #12 KOTLIKOFF (6-1): Was done no favors at the post position draw and hasn’t raced since December, but I think there are things to like. He gets Lasix for the first time, and the last race we saw him run was against open maidens at Gulfstream. He was fourth that day, and that’s likely a better group than the one he faces here; #8 DAISY DOO (12-1): Showed something new last time out, when he led most of the way at a big price before fading to fifth. That’s the same race my top pick exits, and a similar race shape looks likely here. Javier Castellano hops aboard and may attempt to nurse him along on the front end.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.70

Coming to the track as consistently as I did growing up has led to a lot of great stories. One of them, however, has been hotly-contested by my dad and I for the last several days.

We agree that, many years ago, we were driving up the Northway when a canoe atop a car in front of us slid out and fell backwards. It bounced in front of us and, thankfully, went dead right off the side of the road without hurting anyone or damaging anything.

We disagree, however, on where exactly this took place. I maintain it was before the Twin Bridges. He insists it was on a straightaway near Malta. We’ve been badgering each other about this nonstop, which, on Thursday, helped distract us from one of the weirdest racing days we’ve ever seen.

(Love you, Dad. And hey, on the off chance the person who lost the canoe that day is out there, I hope you either learned how to tie one atop your car or had the good sense to stop trying!)

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched down to one $20 win bet, which fizzled when Carpet City never seemed comfortable in the fifth.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: 2-year-old races are always tricky, but I’ve got strong opinions in two of them. I’ll have $25 win bets on #2 LIAM’S LAW in the second and #2 JOY OF LIFE in the fifth, and I’ll also take a small shot with a $1 Pick Four starting in the second that goes as follows: 2 with 4,5,7 with 4,6,7 with 2.

TOTAL WAGERED: $59.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Liam’s Law, Race 2
Longshot: Joy of Life, Race 5

R1

U. S. S. Valor
Belzoni
Mystrix

#4 U. S. S. VALOR (5/2): Had quite a bit of trouble in his debut, but he still managed to finish within three-quarters of a length of that day’s well-meant winner. Shug McGaughey’s first-time starters almost always need a race to get going, and he runs like a horse that’ll appreciate the extra sixteenth he gets in the Saturday opener; #9 BELZONI (6-1): Missed by a head at a price in his debut, and that seasoning should help him here. He’s another bred for distance, and like my top pick, he should move forward with that start under his belt for a patient barn; #2 MYSTRIX (4-1): Dueled through scorching fractions last time out and was second in a three-horse photo. He certainly looks like the controlling speed in here, and he may be the one they have to run down (though I question whether or not more distance is what he truly wants).

R2

Liam’s Law
High Official
Bold Leadership

#2 LIAM’S LAW (5/2): Is the highest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees in the Grade 3 With Anticipation, but he’s the one I most prefer. He went wire-to-wire in the race carded for a controversial distance earlier this meet (moving it to 1 1/16 miles also meant moving a Pick Six carryover), and if he gets comfortable, I think he’ll be tough to catch; #3 HIGH OFFICIAL (7/5): Was very professional in his debut, where he rated, launched a wide bid, and pulled away late. Flavien Prat had some options and lands here, which is a plus, but I’m a bit skeptical of what he beat that day, as it didn’t hit me as the best field; #4 BOLD LEADERSHIP (8/5): Just missed last time out and may have been best that day given his rally from seventh in a race without much early speed. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him step forward, but it sure feels like a similar race shape will materialize in this spot, and that may not be good for him.

R3

Chillax (MTO)
Highlands Way
Favorable Scenario

#4 HIGHLANDS WAY (9/5): Has come flying late in each of his last three starts and was a close-up second behind a runner that tried stakes company earlier this week. This seems like a softer spot, and while more distance is a question mark for a few of these, the extra ground should really help this Pletcher trainee; #7 FAVORABLE SCENARIO (8/5): Hasn’t won in a while but has also been facing stakes-caliber horses pretty regularly. He was most recently second in a swiftly-run race for this level, and the blinkers going on may mean he’s a bit closer to the pace in this spot; #5 THIRTEEN COLONIES (5-1): May have needed his most recent effort, which came off a layoff of more than 10 months. You have to go back a bit to find it, but he does have races that would be competitive with this group, and I’m expecting a step forward now that his comeback race has come and gone.

R4

Three B’s
B Thedonald
Ten Cent Town

#4 THREE B’S (5-1): Is a stone closer in a race that seems full of early speed, and he comes back to the dirt after going up against stakes foes on grass last time out. He’s got three top-two finishes in four local starts, and he’s shown that this 6 1/2-furlong distance hits him right between the eyes. If he gets the logical setup, look out; #7 B THEDONALD (7/2): I’d rather not, but he’s better than he showed last time out when he was fourth as an odds-on favorite. He’s been gelded since that clunker, Flavien Prat hops aboard, and if he can channel his early-2026 form, his desired “stalk and pounce” trip may be the winning one; #6 TEN CENT TOWN (4-1): Appeals to me the most of the likely speed-types in here. He hasn’t run a bad one in his last six starts, and the two most recent efforts were against stakes foes (albeit at Finger Lakes). The pace may be hot, but he’s also shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead, and that could be hugely helpful.

R5

Joy of Life
Aerial Affair
Secret Wish

#2 JOY OF LIFE (8-1): Showed speed in her debut before finishing a distant third behind one of the favorites in the Saturday feature. Bill Mott firsters often need that initial effort, and she ran fairly well given how fast she went early. I’m banking on significant improvement in what hits me as a loaded maiden race for 2-year-old fillies; #6 AERIAL AFFAIR (9/2): Has run well twice this summer for a barn that’s heated up of late with its juveniles. She was second in the race my top pick exits and showed more maturity than she did first time out. She may need to progress more to win this, but that’s far from impossible; #8 SECRET WISH (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat and has a right to be a good one. She sold for $775,000 at Keeneland last year, is kin to four multiple winners, and has a very flashy gate drill a few works back. I tend to prefer experience in races contested at this seven-furlong distance, which is why I went with others on top, but she certainly wouldn’t be a shocking winner.

R6

Wynstock
Doc Sullivan
Reasoned Analysis

#1 WYNSTOCK (9/2): Ran very, very well last time out, when he rolled home going nine furlongs and was claimed by Joe Sharp. He’s been a bit of a “feast or famine” type, and when he’s bad, it’s not fun to watch. However, he draws very well in this Wilson chute race, he should establish position beneath Paco Lopez, and if Sharp has him where he was last time out, he’s got a big shot; #4 DOC SULLIVAN (3-1): Came flying late going seven furlongs last out and finished second behind the talented Buttah, who’s going very well at the moment. This is his second start off the bench for Amelia Green, and while I don’t love closers in chute races, he’s shown some tactical speed in the past and could be more forwardly-placed here; #5 REASONED ANALYSIS (5/2): Did everything but win last time out when he did all the dirty work up front and was beaten a head. This is his third start off a long layoff, and while that day’s winner is in here, he took enough of a step forward to make he think he might bounce. This one, meanwhile, may still have room to improve.

R7

True Essence
Electro
Pharocity

#3 TRUE ESSENCE (3-1): Didn’t get much pace to close into last time out at Ellis, but he still rallied and ran a solid second in his debut. His pedigree says more distance is exactly what he wants. He gets it here, and the experience edge he has over many of his rivals in here could be a big plus; #6 ELECTRO (9/2): Is one of two seven-figure auction purchases trained by Todd Pletcher in here, and of that pair, this is the one I want. There are some very flashy works on his sheet, and being by Gun Runner and out of a Grade 1 winner, he has every right to be extremely talented. Add in the presence of Flavien Prat, and he’s definitely logical; #9 PHAROCITY (7/2): Is a fascinating runner making his debut for Steve Asmussen after a series of works that, on paper, look outstanding. There’s not much in the way of bottom-side pedigree here, and some Asmussen trainees need their initial outings, but if he runs to his drills, look out.

R8

Motawaali (MTO)
Related Party
Artemis Two

#5 RELATED PARTY (5/2): Was nearly my best bet of the day, as I thought he ran extremely well in his debut despite not getting the job done. He rated well behind a slow pace, had some traffic trouble, and was beaten just a length. He’s strictly the one to beat, and if he gets smoother sailing while taking a logical step forward second time out, I don’t think that happens; #3 ARTEMIS TWO (7/2): Makes his first start for Brad Cox and has a bottom-side pedigree that screams he wants to go long on the lawn. His female family includes the dams of stakes winners in New Zealand, South Africa, Ireland, and Australia, and if my top pick misfires, he’s the most likely beneficiary; #6 STOCK RISING (6-1): Hammered for $1.5 million at Keeneland last year for obvious reasons. He’s by Flightline and out of the brilliant turf sprinter Lady Shipman, so plenty of eyes will be on him. However, his works look just so-so, and while Lady Shipman was an excellent grass horse, two turns wasn’t her game.

R9

Ortley Avenue
Money Makes Money
Grunge

#3 ORTLEY AVENUE (3-1): Ran well to be second behind a talented “horse for course” last time out, which was his first try in a full year. Castellano rides back for George Weaver, and while this isn’t an easy spot, there’s not a ton of other speed signed on. With that in mind, he’s a legit wire-to-wire threat; #5 MONEY MAKES MONEY (5-1): Shipped in for a high-percentage barn last time out and got the money at this route of ground. He might miss Irad Ortiz, Jr., but Jose Lezcano’s riding well to end the meet, and he could sit an ideal “stalk and pounce” trip in a race where the pace isn’t that fast; #2 GRUNGE (8-1): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in here, and I think he’s worth a look at a price. His last-out clunker was his first poor effort on turf, and blinkers going on should help him. His two-back effort here was very solid, and he could contend if he runs back to it.

R10

Universe
Courting
Papa Yo

#9 UNIVERSE (8-1): Ran like a horse that needed a race last time out, when he pressed the pace and folded going into the far turn. That was his first try since March, and his grinding style is a perfect fit for this race shape, which seems heavy on early speed. That may mean he’s going the right way late in a wide-open event where I’d advise you to go as deep as you can; #3 COURTING (6-1): Gets Lasix for the first time in his first try since April, and he ran in some tough spots earlier this year. Flavien Prat hops aboard, and he’s another that should do his best running late in the game; #2 PAPA YO (10-1): Took a big step forward for Linda Rice last time out, when he jogged home clear by more than five lengths against starter allowance foes. This is a tougher group, to be sure, but it seems like he’s going well for one of the meet’s leading trainers, and he could be live at double-digit odds.

R11

Life Changing
Summer Starlet
Stress Relief

#8 LIFE CHANGING (5/2): Did absolutely everything right at first asking, when she broke like a shot and only improved her positioning from there. She draws a cushy outside post in the Grade 1 Spinaway, Flavien Prat lands here, and I think she could be a handful; #2 SUMMER STARLET (2-1): Made an eye-catching move to win going away at first asking last time out. You don’t see 2-year-olds make those moves often, and she could be a serious racehorse. Watch the fifth carefully, as she’ll move forward if the second and third-place finishers run well in that affair; #4 STRESS RELIEF (8-1): Is 2-for-2 and sports a graded stakes score, having won the Grade 3 Adirondack handily and professionally. I’m not sure how good the field is that she beat that day, but she seems like a mature sort, and she may be able to handle quite a bit being thrown at her here.

R12

Sarir (MTO)
Ori
Griselda

#3 ORI (9/5): Is a logical early favorite in the Saturday nightcap, as she drops in class for a trainer quietly enjoying a very strong meet. She was fifth behind a pretty good horse last time out on the Fourth of July, and her tactical speed should be an asset given what feels like a lack of zip around her in the gate; #7 GRISELDA (4-1): Takes a significant class drop for Chad Brown after a 2026 debut that left a lot to be desired. Her best effort is a good one, and she’s got races on her sheet that would crush these, but it’s fair to wonder if she’s the same horse she was when she came over in 2025 and ran well twice in August and September; #4 SARATOGA SNOW (5-1): Was eased last time out, but that was an off-the-turf event over a sloppy, sealed track, so I have no problem drawing a line through it. Her efforts three and four back weren’t bad, and channeling that form could get her a piece of the finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,078,70

I had an exchange with my niece Wednesday afternoon that some of you will enjoy very much. We were watching the FOX broadcast together, and it was before the eighth race, where I liked the 2-1 favorite.

She looked at me and said, “are you just picking horses because they’re favorites?”

I smirked and replied, “I expect that behavior from people on Twitter, not from my niece!”

As an aside, the favorite won, and after the race, she said she liked that horse, too. She’s going to be a good one.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: It was a pretty terrible day in the pick box, but my bankroll play cashed. Originality didn’t win, but boxing exactas paid off, and my $32 investment returned $118.92.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll link two races where I have strong opinions. I’ll have $20 win bets on #3 UP BEFORE THE DAWN in the fourth and #8 CARPET CITY in the fifth, and I’ll single both of them in a cold $10 double.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Carpet City, Race 5
Longshot: Daiquiri Sommelier, Race 6

R1

Flamenco
Domestic Agenda
May December

#3 FLAMENCO (9/2): Debuts for Graham Motion, whose first-time starters sometimes need a race to get going. However, this daughter of Justify is out of blue hen broodmare Spanish Bunny, who’s thrown Grade 1 winners Spendarella and Spanish Queen and multiple stakes winner Spanish Loveaffair. Given that, I think there’s a chance she’s a real runner; #7 DOMESTIC AGENDA (3-1): Is one of two Chad Brown-trained debutantes, and this is the filly I want of that pair. She sold for $290,000 at auction last year, she’s got a right to love this two-turn trip given her pedigree, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride; #2 MAY DECEMBER (8-1): Showed some speed in her debut for a barn whose runners generally improve with experience. That day’s top two both ran very well, and a step forward could put this one right there at second asking at a price.

R2

Promise Me Amelody
Sparks Will Fly
Carmen Amalia

#9 PROMISE ME AMELODY (6/5): Didn’t run badly when debuting going seven furlongs, which isn’t an easy ask. She was second that day, though, and she cuts back to a six-furlong trip while gaining the services of Manny Franco. There’s a lot to like, and I can’t bet against her; #6 SPARKS WILL FLY (9/2): Debuts for Linda Rice and sports a professional work tab coming into her unveiling. Rice’s numbers with firsters are just so-so, but Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, and she’ll be a contender if she’s ready to go; #7 CARMEN AMALIA (6-1): Has shown early speed in her last two outings and was most recently third behind my top choice. John Velazquez rode her to a good second two back, and she once again figures to be on or near the lead out of the gate.

R3

Souper Tuscan
Commuted
Baby Yoda

#4 SOUPER TUSCAN (7/2): Won two in a row two and three back before misfiring in the Iowa Sprint at Prairie Meadows. He gets to run with Lasix again, which he’s shown he enjoys, and he could be fast enough to be the speed of the speed in this classy optional claimer; #6 COMMUTED (9/5): Got very good earlier this year with four scores in a row downstate and has hit the board twice in as many races at this stand. I’m not convinced he’s quite as good at Saratoga as he is elsewhere, but he’ll certainly relish off going if there’s moisture in the track from rain earlier in the week; #1 BABY YODA (3-1): Hasn’t run since January, and whether or not he’ll be at his best is a genuine question. However, when he’s been able to run with Lasix at the Spa, he’s been excellent, and Flavien Prat, who won on him twice in 2025, rides back.

R4

Up Before the Dawn
Pros and Cons
Baliage

#3 UP BEFORE THE DAWN (7/2): Comes in from Ellis Park, where she ran incredibly well in her debut. She was ninth of 10 early in a race without much pace, but she made up a lot of ground and pulled away decisively. Flavien Prat may have had some options in the P.G. Johnson, but he lands here, and I think that’s a clue; #1 PROS AND CONS (2-1): Was professional in her maiden-breaking win here last time out, where she went from last to first and pulled away to top a next-out winner. There was a legitimate pace that day, but she did everything you’d want a 2-year-old to do, and I can’t fault anyone who’s bullish on her here; #5 BALIAGE (5/2): Was very well-bet in her debut a few weeks ago and won, but did so while running like a horse that needed experience. Perhaps she got it that day, and maybe she improves considerably at second asking, but she may have to in order to contend with some classy-looking 2-year-old fillies.

R5

Carpet City
Tiger Line
Silver Jackpot

#8 CARPET CITY (5-1): Had some trouble in her debut, but still nearly rallied to get the money at a price for a barn whose firsters usually need one to get going. She should be much sharper here, I think the experience edge she gets matters here, and I’ll be very happy with the morning line price if I can get it come post time; #4 TIGER LINE (7/2) Sold for $240,000 at auction last summer and has been working well for George Weaver. Her dam’s two prior foals to race are winners, Manny Franco hops aboard, and she’s a legitimate contender; #3 SILVER JACKPOT (8-1): Is by Blame and out of a War Front mare, so she has every right to love the lawn. Jena Antonucci hasn’t usually been a trainer to bet with first-time starters, but some of her 2-year-olds have run well this summer, the two-back work looks strong, and she’ll likely be a pretty square price.

R6

Daiquiri Sommelier
Paul’s Recovery
Big Brooklyn

#7 DAIQUIRI SOMMELIER (8-1): Had every right to need his last-out clunker, where he pressed the pace going seven furlongs before fading to finish sixth of seven. This is the first time he’s run without a significant layoff between starts in more than a year, he takes a significant class drop, and his early speed could be an asset out of the Wilson chute; #9 PAUL’S RECOVERY (7/2): Was a decent third against starter allowance foes at Churchill Downs last time out, and I’d like him quite a bit with a better post. However, he’s a plodder from a far-outside post, and while he’s certainly talented enough to beat these, I’m concerned he may not be able to save ground; #3 BIG BROOKLYN (15-1): Merits a look at a price getting to what’s probably the correct level. He sprang a big upset two back before running fifth against starter allowance foes, but he gets a big rider switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., and that could ensure he’s prominent early on.

R7

Velora
Prime Aurora
Cachorrita

#5 VELORA (6/5): Did everything right in her debut, when she stalked, pounced, and drew away to win easily despite contact turning for home. The last-out bullet drill suggests she’s thriving for Linda Rice, Jose Ortiz rides back, and she seems like a legitimate favorite in the Seeking the Ante; #2 PRIME AURORA (7/2): Won her debut impressively at Gulfstream before finding open stakes foes a bit too tough. This drop into state-bred competition could help her quite a bit, and it also helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 CACHORRITA (12-1): Is a tricky read, but she made every pole a winning one in her debut at Canterbury in Minnesota. She may be quick enough to turn the inside draw into an asset, and if she gets that desired front-running trip, she might be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R8

Show Time (MTO)
Bosun
Spiced Up

#2 BOSUN (7/2): Does his best work at Saratoga, where he’s 3-for-4 with a second (all at this route). This is his third start off the layoff for Joe Sharp, Jose Ortiz rides back, and his usual effort gives him every chance, even in what looks like a classy race for this level; #6 SPICED UP (5-1): Hasn’t won since last year’s Grade 3 Mahony, but he suffered a tough beat when second by a head last time out in early-June behind a next-out stakes winner. He’s a closer in a turf sprint, which gives me some pause, but he’s got back races that more than fit here, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #5 NO EVIDENCE (9/2): Found the winner’s circle for the first time in a long time last time out, and in doing so he beat my top pick (though that one was coming off a layoff that day). Flavien Prat was aboard that day, and he has the mount again for Miguel Clement.

R9

Heaven’s Bolt
Madeline’s Promise
Tralee Girl

#5 HEAVEN’S BOLT (3-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees in here, and she just missed for a $50,000 tag last time out at Churchill. This $20,000 claimer is an aggressive drop, but she’s been working well here of late, and this is an aggressive barn that’s clearly going after the trainer’s title, so I’m willing to give her the nod; #1 MADELINE’S PROMISE (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but is another dropping in class, and the two best races she’s run have been when she’s run for a tag. That last-out clunker is a lot to swallow, but it was against a better group in the slop. She likely has to go early from the inside draw, and that’s her best game; #8 TRALEE GIRL (6-1): Is the “other” Linda Rice-trained runner, and she goes turf-to-dirt here. She’s got some dirt works that look okay, and the presence of Jose Ortiz might be a clue, but we also haven’t seen her in nearly a year, so there are a lot of unanswered questions here.

R10

Bryant and Cooper
Artistic Success
Roagna

#6 BRYANT AND COOPER (5/2): Is a deep closer that may be pace-dependent, and that’s probably cost her on a few occasions. However, it sure looks like there’s speed in here, and the rider upgrade to Manny Franco is considerable. I think she gets the race shape she wants, and that would make her dangerous; #11 ARTISTIC SUCCESS (10-1): Is the one I like most of the likely speed-types despite a far-outside draw. She showed grit last time out when she dug in and got her nose down over a next-out winner, and she goes first off the claim for a barn that’s had some success this summer; #1 ROAGNA (6-1): Won for the first time in a while last time out, but that was her second start off a long break, and her return two back was a decent second. She seems like she’s in good form coming into this one, and she could be a player despite stepping up in class to face better horses.

R11

Higher Force (MTO)
Nonna Lynne
Dividend Recap

#6 NONNA LYNNE (3-1): Is extremely consistent, with seven top-two finishes in eight starts, and she most recently topped state-breds fairly easily in late-July. This is a class test, and the added furlong is another question she has to answer, but she’s bred for the increased distance and her usual effort gives her a big chance in the Friday finale; #5 DIVIDEND RECAP (4-1): Closed into a very slow pace last time out, but still found a way to get the job done. Manny Franco goes elsewhere, but Jose Ortiz isn’t exactly a bad replacement, and she’ll likely be one of the ones they have to hold off late; #7 CONSENSUS VIEW (7/2): Won her debut impressively and was ambitiously-spotted in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks. Those waters proved too deep, and she may appreciate both the class relief and the re-application of Lasix.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $991.78

It would appear at least one promising thing is coming out of the mess involving Marshall Gramm and HISA. The Daily Racing Form has started including the reasons horses scratched from prior races into their past performances.

It’s not a foolproof system. It still doesn’t include other data that Gramm had at his fingertips, and it doesn’t solve the main problem of a lack of data being available to people the industry wouldn’t survive without. However, it’s a step in the right direction, and those involved should be commended for it.

Having said that, racing’s response to this issue remains disappointing. I’ll reiterate the three-part question I’ve asked in this space before, one horse racing seems to be in no hurry to answer: Who wound up having access to these past performances, what did they do with them, and who was hurt by going up against people with access to information they never had?

(On a happier note, I’m up at Saratoga Thursday. If you see me, say hi!)

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was pretty surprised Senza Parole got bet down all the way to 2/5, and if I’d known she was going to be that price, my action would’ve been different (the hazards of working far in advance!). My $40 win bet returned a rousing $57.60, and doubles fizzling meant I actually dropped $2.40.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: Given the weather forecast, I’ll eschew the turf races and focus on the eighth, where I hope we get the 6-1 price on #4 ORIGINALITY. I’ll have a $20 win bet, as well as $3 exactas using Originality above and below #2 ZATOPEK and #7 BOGUS OPERANDI.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Gilbane, Race 10
Longshot: Never Gonna Stop, Race 4

R1

Pink Rose
Mursal
Adrian

#6 PINK ROSE (5/2): Ships up from Parx and makes her first start for Steven Schauer in the Thursday opener. That barn has been on a tear of late, and we know she can run well at this one-mile distance. Channeling her two or three-back races may be enough to get her the money here; #8 MURSAL (2-1): Merits lots of respect after three wins in a row, and if this race was at seven furlongs, I’d like her quite a bit. However, the far-outside post coming out of the Wilson chute is a major negative, and while she’s negotiated a mile successfully before, this particular route is an unknown. She wouldn’t be a surprising winner, but I can’t back her at her likely price; #3 ADRIAN (6-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but she’s been competitive against similar recently and keeps regular rider Manny Franco when he likely had a few options. She’d benefit from a fast pace, and there’s certainly some speed signed on.

R2

Cybertapping (MTO)
Troca
Rufus the Red

#4 TROCA (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, has several strong gate works on his sheet, and is bred to be a runner. His dam is kin to Grade 3-winning grass horse Drum Major and Drumette, best known as the dam of champion Monomoy Girl. Flavien Prat hopping aboard is also a big plus; #1 RUFUS THE RED (9/2): Made a middle move in his debut on dirt for a trainer that doesn’t always have them fully-cranked first time out. Sire Kantharos is a solid turf influence, and improvement is logical at second asking provided he gets out of the gate a bit better than he did last month; #8 CRYPTO KING (3-1): Showed some early interest in his debut for Riley Mott, another horseman whose charges tend to improve with seasoning and experience. The last two works were very sharp, though I’m skeptical if turf is really what he wants.

R3

Nuanced
Ez Roll
Get a Job

#8 NUANCED (8/5): Is a very, very tricky read. On one hand, we haven’t seen him since November, and I usually hate horses on the outside coming out of the Wilson chute. However, he also seems like the main speed in here, and I think he could clear this group early. If he does, he could be tough to catch; #2 EZ ROLL (3-1): Cuts back to a mile after faltering as an odds-on favorite last time out. He draws well, and his two-back race has aged very well with the winner and third-place horse coming back to win, but he may need more pace than he’s likely to get; #1 GET A JOB (5-1): Won at this route last time out after dueling throughout, and he’s 3-for-4 at the Spa. He takes a significant class jump to run here, but he’s probably the only one that could keep my top pick honest early, and at least we know he’s doing what he wants to do and is in decent form.

R4

Never Gonna Stop
All Show
Quoted

#7 NEVER GONNA STOP (12-1): Ran terribly last time out, but I’m treating that as a “bounce” off of a solid debut where she did everything but win. She drops in class a bit to run here, has shown speed, and stretches out to a distance she could shine at, especially if she’s allowed to dictate terms from the jump; #12 ALL SHOW (7/2): Ran well to be second in her debut behind a much-the-best winner, and I’d like her quite a bit with a better post. Her pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be an issue, and John Velazquez riding back is a good thing, but it might be hard to save ground from all the way out there; #11 QUOTED (4-1): Was less than a length behind my second choice last time out, also has a right to improve, and also draws a terrible post. Two turns shouldn’t be a problem, and she wouldn’t be a surprising winner, but she’d definitely benefit from a few scratches to her inside.

R5

Whatdoesitallmean
Clock
Fair Practice

#8 WHATDOESITALLMEAN (9/2): Makes her first start for George Weaver, and while I’m not thrilled to see her debut for a tag, she was a $100,000 purchase and she’s running for $150,000, so it’s not a total red flag. Her dam was a stakes winner, she’s been working well, and there’s plenty to like; #3 CLOCK (7/2): Is bred to be a good one, being out of a mare that’s kin to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Appealing Zophie (the dam of Belmont winner Tapwrit and Grade 2 winner Ride a Comet). She’s another that’s worked well for a strong barn, but her being a $200,000 purchase means the entry here raises some concerns; #9 FAIR PRACTICE (2-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, which was won by the promising Life Changing. She’s one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and while Prat rides back, I didn’t see any apparent excuse last time, and these connections aren’t afraid to move on from horses that won’t run at the sport’s highest level.

R6

Taqdeer (MTO)
Silsbee
Annascaul

#3 SILSBEE (8/5): Had an all-time terrible trip at this level and route last time, when she was fourth after steadying, bumping, and checking from start to finish. Manny Franco, who rode her in her previous three races, rides back, and a return to form would make her strictly the one to beat; #6 ANNASCAUL (3-1): Has been off almost nine months ahead of her 2026 debut, and she’s run two of her best races at this route. Her wins here in previous years were sharp, but it’s worth noting those came against New York-breds. She may have to be at her best straight off the bench to contend here; #1 AMANGANI (9/2): Makes her U.S. debut and gets Lasix for the first time, which I always love to see. She hasn’t raced in more than a year, but this barn is great at getting horses ready off of long breaks, and her European form indicates this is a good spot to get her going.

R7

Livin the Breeze
Factory Setting
Charlottesuniverse

#7 LIVIN THE BREEZE (6-1): Returned from a six-month break and ran well to be third in a similar spot. She may have moved a hair early that day, and she may have also needed the race. If she steps forward, she’ll have every chance in what hit me as the most wide-open race of the program; #8 FACTORY SETTING (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out despite Flavien Prat losing the stick. She’s clearly moved forward on turf for Chad Brown, she may be coming to hand later in her 3-year-old season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her make it two in a row; #11 CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE (4-1): Stretched out pretty well to be second last time out in the race my top pick exits. The far-outside post is a problem, but the rider switch to Castellano is a big one, and he may enable her to use the natural speed that allowed her to break her maiden going six furlongs in May.

R8

Originality
Bogus Operandi
Zatopek

#4 ORIGINALITY (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher two years after selling for $155,000, a hefty sum considering sire Beau Liam’s modest $6,000 stud fee. His two-back drill going five furlongs was excellent, and his bottom-side pedigree includes a second dam that threw the dam of, among others, champion Echo Zulu and stakes winner Echo Town; #7 BOGUS OPERANDI (5/2): Ran decently to be second in his debut at Delaware and certainly has a right to move forward. I don’t know what he ran against that day, but he beat the third-place finisher by more than seven lengths and races for a trainer that’s hit at a 21% clip with second-time starters; #2 ZATOPEK (4-1): Sold for $625,000 at Keeneland in 2025 and is another with some sharp drills on his sheet. His dam was Grade 1-placed as a 2-year-old, and the tag team of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat can’t be ignored.

R9

Yo Daddy (MTO)
Pass the Hat
Salamis

#3 PASS THE HAT (5/2): Won the Grade 3 Poker two back before finishing a competitive third in the Grade 3 Kelso, where the top two absolutely flew home in the final quarter-mile. The Bernard Baruch has attracted a nice field, but this Bill Mott trainee is clearly in strong form and loves this turf course, which may make him tough to top; #4 SALAMIS (4-1): Capitalized on the drop in class last time out, when he won an optional claimer that produced next-out stakes winner Spirit of St Louis. He won last year’s Grade 1 Hollywood Derby and is capable of firing a big shot, and of the three Chad Brown trainees in here, this is the one I most prefer; #1 FORT WASHINGTON (10-1): Has run some giant races in his career, including in last year’s Grade 1 Arlington Million, which he won. His attempt at a repeat was stymied by a stumble at the start and rating behind a pretty slow pace. If they go fast early, this may be the one they have to hold off (and that morning line price hits me as a significant overlay).

R10

Gilbane
Berman
Fivedollarsforsox

#10 GILBANE (3-1): Came back running off the bench and just missed at this level and route. He was nearly six lengths clear of the rest of the field after stalking and pouncing beneath Manny Franco, who rides back for a barn that seems to be getting things going late in the summer; #5 BERMAN (15-1): May have needed the last-out effort off of such a long break, and I’m willing to give him a look at a price. He showed some early interest that day, and there’s not a ton of early speed in this group. If he’s a bit more fit, he could factor in this at big odds; #4 FIVEDOLLARSFORSOX (5-1): Debuts for Miguel Clement and certainly looks logical beneath Flavien Prat, but I have some doubts. He was a $220,000 purchase across the street two years ago, makes his first start late in his 3-year-old season, and runs for a tag that’s less than a quarter of his original purchase price. I think he’ll get bet, and at a short price, I can’t endorse a runner with more questions than answers.