BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,088.83

It almost certainly wasn’t malicious, but what happened Sunday at Saratoga is inexcusable.

Chief of Peace went postward for the second with Ricardo Santana, Jr., listed to ride. He was listed on television, on Equibase, and on wagering websites. Chief of Peace won the race, and after it was over, celebrations of a Santana riding double quickly turned to people saying, “…wait a minute, that’s Javier Castellano.”

Bettors were not alerted to this, and the “race day changes” section on Equibase’s website did not reflect Castellano as the rider until 45 minutes after the race happened. NYRA’s communications team did not respond to multiple requests for comment on Sunday, but Equibase put out a short statement on Twitter that blamed this on, “a program production error.”

Whatever the case may have been, bettors once again took it on the chin, as they didn’t have anything resembling correct information before the race went off. Imagine paying full-price to go to a Knicks game, on the basis you’ll see Jalen Brunson, only for the Knicks to trot out some random person in Brunson’s uniform. You can’t, because it would never happen in any major sport.

I don’t think there was nefarious intent to this, and I think conspiracy theorists on Twitter who saw it that way are barking up the wrong tree. However, it’s the latest “should not occur” moment for an industry that has seemingly gone out of its way to pile those up over the course of the last month.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled when the seventh race got rained off the turf. I blame NYRA Bets tournament czar Jackson Muniz for this, as he committed the cardinal sin of tweeting, “looks like we lucked out with the rain!” You’re awesome, Jackson, but I hope you learned a valuable lesson about, to steal a phrase from the great Toby Ziegler, tempting the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: With only eight races on the card, I can play the late Pick Four, which hits me as a fun sequence. My 50-cent ticket starts in the fifth and goes as follows: 8,9 with ALL with 1,2,3,6,7 with 9. In addition, I’ll have a $20 win bet on #9 RAISED (my best bet of the day) in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Raised, Race 8
Longshot: Mr. Rogers, Race 5

R1

Cody’s Approval
Lady Starstruck
Dotsy

#7 CODY’S APPROVAL (2-1): Gets a tepid nod in what looks like a pretty wide-open lid-lifter. He was a decent second last time out against similar restricted maidens, and he draws a handy outside post beneath Jose Ortiz, who will likely ensure he’s forwardly-placed; #3 LADY STARSTRUCK (7/2): Debuts for George Weaver and attracts Flavien Prat, both of which will draw plenty of attention. She’s kin to a pair of stakes horses and has worked well, though the bottom side of her pedigree does hint she may do her best running on turf or synthetic, not dirt; #5 DOTSY (8-1): Is worth a look at a price. Her dam has six prior winners to her credit, and her second dam threw, among others, graded stakes winner Voodoo. These high-percentage connections could’ve easily stayed at Finger Lakes, so shipping here makes me feel like she’s got some potential.

R2

Magnanimous Max (MTO)
Unit Economics
Brigadier General

#7 UNIT ECONOMICS (4/5): Figures to be a very heavy favorite if this event stays on the turf. He came off a long layoff against optional claiming foes last time out and takes a massive drop in class for connections that aren’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. If he steps forward at all, he’ll be tough to beat; #5 BRIGADIER GENERAL (4-1): Tries turf for the first time here, and while he was pretty good on dirt several years ago, the pedigree (by Street Sense, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare) hints that he could like the lawn. I also like that he may be the lone speed, which can go a long way in inner turf races; #6 RIGHT TO WIN (8-1): Didn’t break well in his return to the races last month at Ellis and is another dropping in class. His lone local start prior to this was a victory last summer, which came during a stretch where he won three of four starts before going to the bench.

R3

Timia
Sabby Sunset
Our Preferred Pal

#5 TIMIA (8/5): Hasn’t won in a while, but she also hasn’t been worse than third since mid-December, and that includes seven starts at this level. She does want to be forward, and the pace will likely be quick, but she has at least shown an ability to stalk, which could be the right trip; #7 SABBY SUNSET (15-1): Is one of only a few that has shown she can pass others late. She comes in off of a win over much weaker at Finger Lakes, but I like how she did it, rating before pouncing on the turn. I wouldn’t be surprised if she drops back and is able to pick up some pieces at a price; #6 OUR PREFERRED PAL (3-1): Did a lot right last time when second in a one-mile race here, as she set a solid pace before yielding to a much-the-best winner. Her lone win to date came at this seven-furlong distance back in April, and the rider switch to Manny Franco is a notable one.

R4

Vajra
My Divine Spirit
Saint Tropez

#1 VAJRA (7/2): Came back running when third in her first try since last August at Ellis Park. She pressed a hot pace that day and has a right to improve second off the layoff beneath Flavien Prat, who could have some options provided she breaks well from the inside draw; #8 MY DIVINE SPIRIT (5-1): Was another that came off a long break last time. She hadn’t run since October and likely needed the race. Her two-back effort downstate was a good one, as she was second behind a next-out winner, and channeling that form would make her a contender; #2 SAINT TROPEZ (9/2): Showed speed in her debut on the Fourth of July and shortens up to a sprint at second asking. Ricardo Santana, Jr., could have her on or near the lead again, and if she’s sharper with a race under her belt, she wouldn’t be a surprising winner.

R5

Al Mowashaah
Mr. Rogers
Jordan the Caddy

#9 AL MOWASHAAH (5/2): Ran well last time out and finished second behind a runner that got loose on the lead and forgot to stop. The listed rider will change, as Irad Ortiz, Jr., is injured, but anything close to that effort would give this one a big shot to earn the diploma; #8 MR. ROGERS (15-1): Debuts for Melanie Giddings and is bred to be a very good turf horse. This son of Munnings is kin to Grade 2-placed surfer Harry Hood, and his dam is a half-sister to English Group 3 winner Ladys First, among others. He’ll be a price, but I think he’s very interesting; #10 JORDAN THE CADDY (12-1): Is one of two Linda Rice trainees, and I’d like him much more with a better post. His dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner on Woodbine’s synthetic surface, and I don’t think the distance will be what beats him. The question is, can Jose Lezcano find a way to save some ground?

R6

Secured Landing
Glen Airy
Unload

#2 SECURED LANDING (4-1): Was part of a pace that melted down going two turns last time out, and he cuts back in distance for this wide-open event out of the Wilson chute. Inside speed is powerful in these races, and he’s won seven of 11 lifetime starts at this one-mile trip (though, to be fair, many of those came against weaker competition); #6 GLEN AIRY (5/2): Was an easy winner going long here just 12 days ago and got claimed by Linda Rice that day. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and this seems like a more challenging spot, but he’s shown an ability to make up ground, and he’d benefit from a horse or two trying to go with my top pick out of the gate; #7 UNLOAD (7/2): Ships up from Texas for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, and while the last-out effort at Lone Star wasn’t great, he did run fairly well a few times earlier this year at Oaklawn. If he brings that form with him, he’ll stand a big chance, even if the post position isn’t ideal.

R7

More Champagne
Side Quest
Luminous Beauty

#1 MORE CHAMPAGNE (4-1): Isn’t just a hunch play, as I think she’ll benefit from the likely race shape in the Bolton Landing. She rated, pounced, and drew away convincingly at first asking at Keeneland before flopping at Royal Ascot. Tom Morley trainees aren’t always fully-cranked at first asking, and if she can sit off what figures to be a hot pace, she’ll have every chance to strut her stuff; #3 SIDE QUEST (5/2): Was very professional in earning the diploma last time out, as she stalked and rolled to a convincing win at this route. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she looked very good, and when Will Walden gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #7 LUMINOUS BEAUTY (10-1): Tries turf after finishing a solid second in the Grade 3 Adirondack on dirt. Sire Flameaway has shown he can produce precocious turf horses, and dam Sly Beauty contested this very race back in 2017 before accomplishing quite a bit at Woodbine.

R8

Raised
Starship Lizzy
All Bright

#9 RAISED (3-1): Was claimed after a disappointing debut at Churchill and ran a solid third at Ellis. That day’s winner came back to win again at next asking, and while Ron Moquett hasn’t won yet at the meet, this one looks very live. I vastly prefer the race she exits to ones others come out of, and any further progression would make her tough to top; #3 STARSHIP LIZZY (9/2): Put forth a challenge in her return to the races last time out but was repelled and settled for second. That was her first try since November, and while I suppose she could improve second off the layoff, they crawled home that day, and I’m just not sure another furlong is what she wants; #1 ALL BRIGHT (7/2): Ran third behind my second choice last time out and attracts Jose Ortiz in the Wednesday finale. That rider switch is a big one, and if it propels her forward, she could be a factor, although inside-drawn closers sometimes need quite a bit to go right.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,088.83

I’m going to try very, very hard not to be a broken record about the situation I’ve discussed in this section a few times this week. However, the Saratoga meet is the one time of year where I have a good-sized platform, and if I don’t use it for what I think is right, I’d feel like I’m wasting it.

Horse racing is a strange place. There have been situations that people have blown wildly out of proportion, and there are some matters and discussions that I have actively avoided because nothing good could come from engaging with them.

The issue with Marshall Gramm, HISA, and confidential data being distributed by some within the game who should have known better is not one of those overblown issues. It’s a genuine crisis, one where the people who were supposed to be the responsible adults in the room (including an industry stalwart and a regulatory body with the word “integrity” right in its name) completely, totally, and unequivocally failed.

I love this game. I want to see it not just survive, but thrive. Growth and progress sometimes have to come from attacking difficult situations head-on, making tough calls, and holding people accountable. I sincerely hope that’s the direction we’re going in. If not, we’re in trouble.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Maria Callas saved ground and looked loaded turning for home. Unfortunately, she had nowhere to go when it mattered, and I dropped $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh, where I’m betting #1 ALL OF IT bounces back after a failed try against stakes company. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her, and I’ll single her in $5 doubles that start in the seventh and end with #4 TOUGH STREET and #7 KYLE’S MOM in the eighth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Ice Chocolat, Race 1
Longshot: Minorinconvenience, Race 9

R1

Secured Landing (MTO)
Ice Chocolat
Conman

#2 ICE CHOCOLAT (2-1): Looms large in the Sunday opener as he returns to the scene of his biggest triumph. He won the Grade 3 Poker here back in 2024, and while he may not be the same horse now as he was then, I don’t think he has to be. He’s run well enough at Woodbine for Mark Casse to make me think he’ll be very tough to top; #5 CONMAN (5-1): Is protected from being claimed in this spot, which is one of my favorite things to see in the form. He’s 2-for-4 over this turf course, and while there’s a layoff to contend with, he’s been working well leading up to his return for a barn that knows how to get comebackers ready to go; #6 PRESIDER (5/2): Looks like the main speed and just missed at a similar level back in mid-July. This barn hasn’t sent out many horses, but it’s hitting at a 24% clip, and Manny Franco seeing fit to ride back is a good thing.

R2

Motawaali (MTO)
And the Runner Is
Broadcast

#2 AND THE RUNNER IS (8/5): Was a late scratch last weekend after an incident that injured jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he’ll get another try here. His debut was solid, as he was second behind a decent-looking winner, and he has every right to improve at second asking beneath Irad’s brother, Jose; #8 BROADCAST (4-1): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in here, and she’s bred to love going long on the turf. She’s out of the mare Shared Account, who pulled off a shocker to win the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (side note, I still remember needing longshot Keertana there for a big-to-me score); #1 HARBAUGH (5/2): Led briefly in his turf debut before settling for second behind a winner that appears to have a lot of talent. This is another Mark Casse trainee that could be improving with experience, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on or near the lead.

R3

Hot Currency
Tennessee Belle
Vekoma’s Diva

#1 HOT CURRENCY (9/5): Scratched out of a stakes race Friday to run here, and that was probably the right move (especially given how impressive Iron Orchard was). She gets to sprint with Lasix here, and while there’s other speed in this event, her last-out romp was a very sharp performance, and a repeat of that effort could get her the money; #7 TENNESSEE BELLE (2-1): Makes her first start in nearly a year and showed some potential as a 2-year-old. She broke her maiden here at second asking for then-trainer John Ortiz. She shows up for Todd Pletcher, and while the works look so-so on paper, he’s very good at getting horses ready off the bench; #4 VEKOMA’S DIVA (5-1): Has been training very, very well ahead of her first start since May. She adds blinkers for George Weaver, and while her two starts to date have been against Arkansas-breds, those drills indicate she could be ready for this jump up the class ladder.

R4

Gadget Play
Commitment Fund
Ize a Runner

#6 GADGET PLAY (9/5): Has run well twice in as many starts to date, and third time could be the charm. He set a solid pace in the slop last time out in a race won by a well-meant Bill Mott trainee, and the third-place finisher that day came back and won. I expect him to sit an ideal front-running trip beneath Luis Saez; #5 COMMITMENT FUND (5/2): Made up a lot of ground late in a race that fell apart and, in doing so, nearly overcame a nightmare trip. Flavien Prat rides back for Chad Brown, and while I usually don’t love closers in Wilson chute races, there could clearly be some talent here; #4 IZE A RUNNER (4-1): Is the second Brown trainee in this field and was a one-paced fifth in the race my top pick exits. He’s bred to want more distance, which he gets here, and he may not have appreciated the wet track a few weeks ago.

R5

Oil Capital (MTO)
Run Curtis Run
Twisted Filigree

#1 RUN CURTIS RUN (5/2): Is a tepid top pick in a classy race for this level. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s run well here several times and he’s clearly a better horse on Lasix, which he gets here after two starts against stakes company. The last time Prat rode him was here last summer, and he was an impressive winner that day; #2 TWISTED FILIGREE (3-1): Was claimed after running third behind a winner that came back to repeat on Friday as a heavy favorite. He looks like the main speed in this spot, and while he hasn’t won in quite a while, he could be the one they have to catch after getting a fairly easy lead, and that would make him dangerous; #4 BILLIONAIRES ROW (10-1): Is worth a look at a price going first off the claim for an astute barn. He won at this route a year ago, and he had some trouble at this level last time out when he was beaten just two lengths.

R6

Barb
Twenty Four Mamba
Lunar Module

#4 BARB (4-1): Won a swiftly-run race for the level last time out and was claimed by Joe Sharp, who does great work with new acquisitions. This is a class test for him, to be sure, but his recent resume looks far better if you throw out the two-back clunker on turf. A step forward would make him a major player; #1 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA (9/2): May have needed his last-out effort, where he made a middle move into a fast pace and faded to finish fifth of seven. That was his first start in over four months, and he should be more fit second off the bench in this spot; #7 LUNAR MODULE (6-1): Cuts back from a one-mile race at Ellis to run here and is the “other” Joe Sharp trainee. His win at a similar distance two back was very solid, and there should be some pace signed on, which would set things up for a closer like this one.

R7

Nina Kay (MTO)
All of It
Brokealltherules

#1 ALL OF IT (9/2): Didn’t run well against stakes company last time out, as the leader set an easy pace and never came back to the field. She gets to run with Lasix in this spot, which should help her, and Manny Franco rides back when he almost certainly had several options (including my third choice); #8 BROKEALLTHERULES (4-1): Has found her form on the Saratoga lawn with two wins in her last two starts. She never trailed on either occasion, and she’ll likely be forwardly-placed here with Flavien Prat back aboard. The question is, can she clear this field going into the first turn, or will she be forced wide?; #3 DIVIDEND RECAP (6-1): Hasn’t run a bad one since going to the sidelines from late-2023 to mid-2025, and she exits a good-looking score where she rallied in an event with very little speed. That running style doesn’t often suit the inner turf course, but she’s consistent, and her usual effort likely gets her a piece of it.

R8

Tough Street
Kyle’s Mom
Moon Gate

#4 TOUGH STREET (7/2): Was second-best behind a runaway winner at this route last time out, and she takes a steep drop into this lower-level claiming event. She hasn’t won in quite some time, but she’s hit the board in eight of nine local starts and, incredibly, has never been worse than third in 15 starts at this one-mile distance; #7 KYLE’S MOM (3-1): Was third at this level and route in early-July and was claimed out of that race by a barn that can move horses forward quickly. She was nearly my top pick, but the post position certainly isn’t ideal, and she may have a tough time saving ground; #1 MOON GATE (10-1): Is worth a look at a price given her early speed and the inside draw. Those are assets at this route, and she finished a close second behind my second choice at this distance earlier this year at Aqueduct.

R9

Onebigbeautfulbill
Talk to Me Jimmy
Minorinconvenience

#4 ONEBIGBEAUTFULBILL (3-1): Tries two turns for the first time in the Albany, but he’s bred to love it and he hasn’t done anything wrong to this point. His grinding style hints that he’ll appreciate more ground, and given that this will be just his third career start, this Brad Cox trainee may still be improving; #6 TALK TO ME JIMMY (8/5): Relished the drop into the state-bred ranks with a win in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes. This is a logical next step, and he should be prominent early, but there’s other speed signed on in here, this barn has been ice-cold for most of the summer, and I’m not inclined to back him at his likely short price; #3 MINORINCONVENIENCE (8-1): Goes back to New York-bred competition after several tries against open company. He was wide when a distant fourth behind Sea Strike and Chief Wallaby in the Curlin, and these are shallower waters. We know he likes Saratoga given his two wins here last year, and he could provide value in the exotics.

R10

Salvation (MTO)
Vivaldi
Tamarin

#1 VIVALDI (9/2): Runs for a tag for the first time in the Sunday nightcap after a disappointing 2026 debut at Churchill Downs. That was his first try since September, so he had a right to need that race. Given the connections, I’m not sure we’ll get the morning line price, but I do think he merits plenty of respect on the drop in class; #9 TAMARIN (10-1): Comes off a six-month layoff and has only raced once prior to this. He helped set a legitimate pace at Gulfstream that day, and he’s another getting some class relief for a solid barn. At a minimum, I expect him to be prominent early; #7 FRANKLIN DELANO (3-1): Has probably the best prior race of anyone in this field, as he was a good second behind stakes winner Bottas here exactly one year ago. However, he hasn’t progressed at all since that effort, and while Ricardo Santana, Jr., is no slouch, he’s not one of Todd Pletcher’s first-call riders. At this price, I’ll try to beat him.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,138.83

Unfortunately, I need to use this space on a Saturday to reiterate a point I have to keep making because there’s one particular, inconvenient, three-part question that’s getting missed or ignored by too many people.

On Friday, the Thoroughbred Daily News published a letter to the editor written by industry stalwart Barry Weisbord. In it, he lobbied for veterinary data to be made public, which is a stance I can get behind (especially given my prior work with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, which is the gold standard for transparency in the industry). However, he also put forth the notion that Marshall Gramm may have wound up doing horse racing a favor.

While that sounds wonderful, that’s not how this works. Gramm extensively accessed private data he was not authorized to view or use, which is bad enough. We know, though, that he sent that information to at least one other person who spread it around. After all, the Twitter user known as SwiftHitter had to get those screenshots from somewhere.

That inconvenient three-part question I mentioned earlier: Who received those files, what did they do with the ill-gotten information those files contained, and which owners, contest players, handicappers, and other industry figures were hurt by not having access to those files and going up against people who did (and, by extension, may have cause for one heck of a class-action lawsuit)?

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Right idea, wrong execution. I was correct to go against Island Town, who failed as an odds-on favorite, but I had the incorrect alternatives. After scratches, I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the eighth, where #9 MARIA CALLAS will be a key horse. I’ll have a $20 win bet on her, and I’ll key her in $5 exactas above #3 ARINATA, #5 VERNON VALLEY, and #11 TUTHILLTOWN. I’ll also key her on top of $1 trifecta tickets that go as follows: 9 with 3,5,11 with 1,3,5,6,8,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Maria Callas, Race 8
Longshot: River Empress, Race 5

R1

Modest Maclean
Big Frosty
Just Tipsy

#6 MODEST MACLEAN (8/5): Is the one I like the most of the two likely favorites. He debuted with a strong effort going seven furlongs and was beaten just a neck. Jose Ortiz rides back for Linda Rice, and he looks like the main speed out of the Wilson chute, which is always dangerous; #4 BIG FROSTY (8-1): Goes turf to dirt for Todd Pletcher, and he made up a lot of ground last time out going two turns at Aqueduct. Whether or not his turf form will translate to success on the main track is anyone’s guess, but at least he’s shown some potential and may offer some value; #3 JUST TIPSY (10-1): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits in his first effort since February. He could step forward second off the bench, and being drawn inside of the other main contenders in the Saturday lid-lifter could help him.

R2

Asbury Park
Arkhipov
Rothschild

#4 ASBURY PARK (2-1): Has only run once since October, and that came in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. Those waters proved way too deep off the bench, and he returns to the optional claiming ranks for this one. Manny Franco rode him to victory two back in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby, and his best race would give him a big chance; #7 ARKHIPOV (3-1): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Chad Brown, and Flavien Prat winds up here. He’s ridden this gelding in his last three starts, including a professional win two back and a second-place finish last time out at this route; #1 ROTHSCHILD (5-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but he looks like the potential lone speed, which is always dangerous in marathons on the inner turf. Luis Saez hopping aboard may signal the intent to go early, and he could lead them a long way.

R3

Powerline
Art Museum
Got Tough

#1 POWERLINE (8/5): Was rank in his debut, but still managed to run second behind a very well-meant first-time starter. Offspring of Flightline have been a bit green of late, but it’s safe to assume he learned a lot from his first start to date, and any sort of improvement would make him formidable; #8 ART MUSEUM (4-1): Is one of two seven-figure auction buys debuting for Chad Brown in this event. This son of Into Mischief is out of a Grade 2-winning router, and that dam is kin to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Wicked Whisper, among others. It won’t be a surprise if he’s got talent; #3 GOT TOUGH (8-1): Debuted in the race my top pick exits, where he ran a distant third after falling back around the turn and re-rallying. He adds blinkers here, and he’s another for whom an experience edge could make a significant difference.

R4

Americanexpression
Five Dozen Roses
Heads in Beds

#1 AMERICANEXPRESSION (2-1): Won his local debut, and while that was a maiden claimer, that day’s third-place finisher came back to graduate at next asking. Ricardo Santana, Jr., rides back for Phil Antonacci, and while this is a step up in class, it’s not like this restricted claimer has attracted any monsters; #6 FIVE DOZEN ROSES (9/2): Graduated against state-breds last time out and runs for Linda Rice, whose barn has been on fire of late. I don’t think she beat much that day, but she also ran reasonably well at this route last summer and may have gotten better since then; #2 HEADS IN BEDS (3-1): Was favored at this level downstate and cuts back a bit after setting the pace and fading to finish sixth of eight. That was her first try since November, and she could be sharper here, but this barn has been ice-cold for most of the summer and I’m not inclined to take her at a short price.

R5

Lil Tipsy (MTO)
River Empress
U Vicky

#2 RIVER EMPRESS (10-1): Drops in for a tag after finishing sixth in what hit me as a decent race for the level on the Fourth of July. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she shows a bit more early interest. If she does, she has back races that say she could be a major player at a price; #6 U VICKY (6-1): Didn’t get much of a pace to close into last time out, when she was fourth running for a $100,000 tag. Jose Ortiz rides back, and while the race shape may not play to her true strengths, the class drop could sure wake her up; #11 DEVILISH GRIN (6-1): Has certainly had chances at 0-for-10 lifetime, but she ran well to be third last time out after racing 20 lengths off the pace early on. She needs a scratch to draw in, but if she does, she could take a step forward given the addition of blinkers.

R6

Very Clever
Key Colony Beach
Mysticious

#11 VERY CLEVER (5-1): Is one of several first-time starters in this loaded event, and I prefer her to all the rest. She gets a helpful outside draw in her unveiling, she’s been working extremely well for Brad Cox, and she’s kin to, among others, multiple Grade 1 winner Matareya; #4 KEY COLONY BEACH (7/2): Ran well in her debut, when she finished second in the slop here last month. She’s since worked twice at Churchill Downs, Manny Franco hops aboard, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this $650,000 auction purchase improve second time out; #8 MYSTICIOUS (6-1): Was second in her unveiling a few weeks ago, and she re-rallied a bit in the stretch that day after getting passed. This barn’s horses tend to move forward with experience, and she showed enough grit first time out to make me think there’s some potential here.

R7

Gunmetal
Cat On Time
Over and Ollie

#7 GUNMETAL (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in what hits me as a wide-open sprint. Consider only his races on Lasix, and his form looks significantly better. Those four races include three wins and a third, including a solid last-out score at Churchill Downs. If new trainer Amelia Green has him ready, he’ll have every chance; #2 CAT ON TIME (9/2): Won three in a row before trying top-notch company in the Grade 2 Vanderbilt. This is probably the right level for him, and being able to run with Lasix again could be what he needs to put forth his best effort; #5 OVER AND OLLIE (6-1): Ran second in a pair of races at this level downstate and attracts Flavien Prat in his return to the Spa. He’s 2-for-3 here, and his lone loss came in last year’s Grade 1 Forego against much better competition.

R8

Lightning Strike (MTO)
Maria Callas
Tuthilltown

#9 MARIA CALLAS (5-1): Had a few excuses last time out, when she underwent a pre-race shoe repair in her first start since November. Still, she ran a decent third behind a next-out winner. I’m expecting a big step forward here given more readiness and less pre-race activity for top-tier connections; #11 TUTHILLTOWN (4-1): Rallied from 11th of 12 to be second beaten just a half-length in her first try against winners. That was a stiff class test, but she ran very well that day, and if the speed horses set fast fractions, this is the one that could benefit the most; #5 VERNON VALLEY (12-1): Almost certainly needed her last-out clunker, which came in the race my second choice exits. That was her first try since September, and she made a bit of a middle move before flattening out. I’m expecting a better run here at a price for a trainer that excels with similar stock second off the bench.

R9

Stimulate
Silver Talent
Enforced Agenda

#5 STIMULATE (5/2): Had every reason to need his return to the races last time out, but he ran very well to break his maiden, and that day’s third-place finisher came back to graduate next time out. Bill Mott’s taken his time with this son of Tapit and Grade 1 winner Elate, and another move forward could be in the offing; #6 SILVER TALENT (5-1): Is also a regally-bred colt, being by Constitution and out of Grade 1 winner Paulassilverlining. His two-back maiden win at this distance was sharp, and the addition of blinkers may help him focus in his fourth career start; #7 ENFORCED AGENDA (10-1): Hasn’t run since January, doesn’t draw particularly well coming out of the Wilson chute, and may be a price. However, his recent works look outstanding, he gets Lasix for the first time, and he may have lost all chance at the break in his most recent outing.

R10

Scalable (MTO)
Segesta
Play With Fire

#6 SEGESTA (7/5): Is one of three Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa and will likely be a pretty heavy favorite, and for good reason. She’s a Grade 1 winner who just missed in the Diana last month, and if she runs her usual race beneath Flavien Prat, the race is probably for second money; #4 PLAY WITH FIRE (15-1): Goes second off the bench for Brown, and her return to the races was a solid effort. She was second behind a stakes-caliber runner that day, she figures to be more ready for this spot, and it’s not often we see these connections at this type of a price; #2 SUNLIT UPLANDS (10-1): Makes her U.S. debut and was most recently seen winning a Group 3 in Germany. Her overseas resume has some strong spots, and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez sees fit to ride.

R11

Counting Stars
My Gun’s Loaded
A. P.’s Girl

#6 COUNTING STARS (1/2): Will be a very, very short price in the Grade 1 Alabama, where a win could all but cement her as the best filly of her crop. She comes in having won two straight Grade 1’s here at the Spa, and her pedigree says the added distance of this event shouldn’t be a problem; #4 MY GUN’S LOADED (3-1): Has put up some gaudy speed figures ahead of this major class test. She’s run well twice in a row coming up the class ladder, and the 10-furlong trip should be to her liking. The question is, is she as good without the use of Lasix?; #5 A. P.’S GIRL (12-1): Has picked up checks in three stakes races since mid-April and may be worth a look underneath. She’s a plodder that shouldn’t have an issue with the distance, and that might be enough to get her a piece of this.

R12

Fango Creek
Secretly Delighted
Osmosis

#4 FANGO CREEK (4-1): Exits a live maiden race on Independence Day where she was third behind a next-out winner. She may have room to improve in just her third career start, and she also looks like she may be able to be on or near the lead in a race without much early speed (at least on paper); #5 SECRETLY DELIGHTED (3-1): Was fourth in the race my top pick exits and gets Lasix for the first time in this spot. She’s yet to run a truly bad race for trainer Mark Casse, and the addition of that medication could mean she’s sitting on a career-best effort in the Saturday nightcap; #8 OSMOSIS (9/2): Hasn’t run since Christmas Eve, when she was beaten just a neck at Gulfstream Park. The layoff is a concern, but among those she beat that day was Lion Lake, who has since become a Grade 3 winner. If she’s ready to run, she could be dangerous.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,168.83

I co-host a weekly podcast called “Drank’n Champagne,” which is available through the On the Wrong Lead network on YouTube and wherever you listen to audio. Generally speaking, we dive into an assortment of racing and gambling matters, and we analyze a multi-race sequence (during the meet at the Spa, we’ve looked at late Pick Five sequences on Friday cards).

It’s been a blast doing this for the last few years, and the OTWL guys have become good friends (they were at my wedding and were responsible for a tie clip commemorating something they really, really wish I’d shut up about!). If you’re not subscribed, go find us and give the shows a listen.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Tamino was wide throughout in the second and lost interest. I, meanwhile, lost $28.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fourth and try to beat #2 ISLAND TOWN, who hits me as a vulnerable favorite. My money goes through #5 UNAUTHORIZED and #7 METATRON, as they’ll be on top of $3 exactas that include those two, #1 NASH POTATOES, and Island Town underneath. In addition, I’ll play $3 doubles starting in the fourth with those two and finishing in the fifth with #2 GOOD AIM, #4 ROYAL RESERVE, and #8 FIRE MARSHAL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Venetta, Race 9
Longshot: Unauthorized, Race 4

R1

Wynstock (MTO)
Cugino
Right to Vote

#3 CUGINO (8/5): May be favored in an optional claiming event that looks much more like a stakes race. He won the Grade 2 Red Smith late last year, and he had every right to need his last-out effort at Colonial. If he’s sharper here, he could be tough to top; #5 RIGHT TO VOTE (5/2): Is a perfect 3-for-3 at the Spa and comes in after two wins in a row. This is a class test for him, to be sure, but he may still have room to move forward. If that improvement materializes, he could prove to be a stakes-quality horse; #1 TIZ DASHING (2-1): Has been running against the likes of Deterministic and Mi Bago in his last several starts. This isn’t the class relief his connections were probably hoping for, and he’s 0-for-4 over this turf course, but he does have back races that more than fit with this group.

R2

Dr. Kraft
Shadow Dragon
Quick to Accuse

#5 DR. KRAFT (3-1): Stretches out for this event out of the Wilson chute and also gets to run with Lasix for the first time in a while. The seven-furlong trip last time out may have been a bit too short for him, and he sure looks like the main early speed. If he’s able to get comfortable up front, he could prove hard to catch; #4 SHADOW DRAGON (7/2): Goes first off the claim for a barn that does well with new acquisitions. He’s another runner with some early speed, and his 14 top-three finishes in 19 starts at this one-mile distance hint that this is what he wants to do; #1 QUICK TO ACCUSE (5-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but he’s another with extensive experience at the stakes level and has collected some big checks pretty recently. The local mark is concerning, but he draws well and has done some of his best work going eight furlongs.

R3

Moonlit
Jadorlinija
Hypnotica

#3 MOONLIT (8/5): Is one of two Miguel Clement trainees in this event, and this is the one I prefer. Both cut back from nine furlongs to run here, but she adds blinkers and Manny Franco, and both are changes I like quite a bit; #2 JADORLINIJA (2-1): Is the second Clement-trained runner, and she’s had a few wide trips. She gets a favorable inside draw here, which could help her top a stablemate that beat her by a half-length last time out; #7 HYPNOTICA (4-1): Doesn’t draw well here, but she did take a step forward going long last time out. She goes back to the dirt for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and comes in off of a solid half-mile drill several days ago.

R4

Metatron
Unauthorized
Island Town

#7 METATRON (9/2): Is protected from being claimed in his first start since December, and I love when connections take advantage of that rule. This gelding has fired three straight bullets at Fair Hill, Prat hops aboard, and I think there’s plenty to like; #5 UNAUTHORIZED (8-1): Takes a big drop in class to run here after fading to finish last against optional claiming foes. He’s had issues at the gate a few times, but his races two and three back at Oaklawn weren’t bad, and he comes in off of a bullet drill of his own; #2 ISLAND TOWN (2-1): Earned the diploma last time out at Churchill and runs for strong connections, but I have some doubts. He broke his maiden for a $100,000 tag last time out, so what’s he doing running for about a third of that price after some slow workouts at Turfway Park?

R5

Fire Marshal
Royal Reserve
Good Aim

#8 FIRE MARSHAL (4-1): Showed some speed in his debut for a trainer whose horses tend to need a race to get going. Prat rides back at second asking, and I’m expecting a step forward given the experience edge he has over most of this group; #4 ROYAL RESERVE (8-1): Sold for $325,000 at auction earlier this year and has reason to be precocious. He’s a full brother to a debut winner, and being by Central Banker, he’s got a right to be a pretty solid turf horse; #2 GOOD AIM (4-1): Is kin to a stakes-winning sprinter and attracts Jose Ortiz when he may have had several options. Second dam Joint Return was also a very classy runner, and while Presque Isle form sometimes doesn’t travel to Saratoga, he does have a few workouts that hint he may have some talent.

R6

Margie’s Girl (MTO)
Golden Siren
Determined Scholes

#3 GOLDEN SIREN (5/2): Helped set the pace in her debut last month before settling for second behind a good-looking winner. On paper, she looks like the main early speed in this two-turn inner turf race, and that’s always a positive; #2 DETERMINED SCHOLES (5-1): Is an Irish-bred that sold for a pretty penny overseas, and for good reason. She’s kin to English stakes winner Lava Stream, and second dam Montare was a Group 1 winner in France who threw Group 1 winner Journey, among others. The only hesitation here is that this isn’t exactly a “win early” pedigree; #6 DOVES AND HAWKS (9/2): Sold for $300,000 at Keeneland last year and is another bred to love the lawn. This daughter of Twirling Candy is out of a mare that’s a half-sister to Grade 1-winning surfer United and two other stakes winners. The tag team of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat also merits respect.

R7

Georgia Magic
Yo Daddy
Solo Venturi

#6 GEORGIA MAGIC (4-1): Has gotten very good very fast for Steven Schauer, having won two in a row by a combined margin of nearly 11 lengths. This is a step up in class, but he looks like he could be the main early speed. If he gets comfortable, he could get brave; #9 YO DADDY (7/2): Was able to run with Lasix last time and was run down late in a race that seemed to fall apart up front. He’s clearly a better horse with that medication, and he should be able to sit his desired stalking trip given the relative lack of early speed inside of him; #7 SOLO VENTURI (3-1): Comes off the bench for his first start since March, when he was third in the Grade 3 Challenger at Tampa. That two-back optional claimer victory came against a stakes-quality field, and he’s been working consistently in Kentucky for Will Walden ahead of his return.

R8

Roman Grace (MTO)
One Last Knock
Ratu Jawa

#1 ONE LAST KNOCK (4-1): Ran a solid third last time out behind Oscar’s Encore, who came back to run well against stakes foes last weekend. This feels like a softer spot, and her tactical speed may mean she gets an ideal position early on beneath Kendrick Carmouche; #4 RATU JAWA (15-1): Scratched out of a stakes race and merits a look at a big price. She wasn’t beaten much by my top pick last time out, and that came on a day where she had trouble out of the gate. If there’s a battle up front, she could come rolling late; #2 STAR OF LIFE (8-1): Makes her North American debut for Mark Casse after running in England and Italy. I’m not quite sure what she’s been running against, but her works seem solid enough, and I’m just not sold on #3 BOSTON’S PHINEST (7/5), who seems like a very vulnerable favorite coming up out of state-bred competition.

R9

Venetta
New York Special
Iron Orchard

#3 VENETTA (5/2): Feels like one of only a few doing what she actually wants to do in the Fleet Indian. She stretched out to two turns with aplomb in the New York Oaks at Finger Lakes, while many of her rivals are trying something completely new with this nine-furlong distance. She’s already proven going this route, and she may still have room to get better; #6 NEW YORK SPECIAL (12-1): Was third in a two-turn stakes race on turf last time out, so at least we know the distance shouldn’t be a problem. She may prefer the grass, but her first-out effort on the main track at Aqueduct wasn’t bad, so perhaps she’s one to look for at a price; #4 IRON ORCHARD (3-1): Won the Grade 1 Frizette last year but has been struggling to find that form ever since. Her fourth-place finish in the Johnstone wasn’t awful, and she does have the speed to be prominent early, but I’m not convinced this route is really what she wants.

R10

Promise Me Amelody (MTO)
Ganderella
Fifty Shades Free

#1 GANDERELLA (5-1): Came back off the bench and ran a solid third at a big price in a similar spot last month. This barn got off the duck Wednesday, and a step forward second off the bench could give them a chance at another score in a wide-open Friday nightcap; #4 FIFTY SHADES FREE (6-1): Is one of two Jorge Abreu trainees in this spot, and she could be well-meant in her debut. Her dam is kin to multiple graded stakes winner Hot Summer, who’s thrown six multiple winners from as many foals to race, and Prat seeing fit to ride hits me as a vote of confidence; #7 AMAZING GRACER (4-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits, and Manny Franco rides back. She’s found trouble on several occasions, but she got a clean trip last time, and another one could give her a shot to earn the diploma. 

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,194.83

The expression “dog days of summer” gets thrown around in baseball quite a bit as players go through the grind of a 162-game season. If such a thing exists at Saratoga, we’re in them, as Thursday’s card is the second straight one of the eight-race variety and the program, on the whole, looks incredibly chalky.

This is nobody’s fault. Horses that ran in the first few weeks of the meet either aren’t ready to come back yet or are being aimed for tough spots over the last few weekends. Still, cards like these aren’t what players actively seeking value want, and it makes sections like these even more tricky.

(Side note: My stepsister is headed up to the track Thursday, so there’s more pressure on me than usual. Love you, Jenn. Have a blast!)

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Pick Fours and doubles fizzled, and I was left with a $20 win bet on a 5/2 morning line favorite that got bet all the way down to 3/5. Paula’s Choice did win, which softened the blow, but I still dropped $16.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second race, where I’m hoping we can get the 7/2 morning line price on #8 TAMINO, my best bet of the day. I’ll have a $20 win bet on him, and I’ll key him in $2 exactas above and below #3 INTO DIAMONDS and #6 LIGHT FANTASTIC.

TOTAL WAGERED: $28.

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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Tamino, Race 2
Longshot: Gracie’s Delight, Race 8

R1

Oath
Jayme’s Turn
Ms Nikki D

#6 OATH (9/5): Is one of several imposing-looking favorites on the Thursday program. She drops down in class for this one and looks like the controlling speed. Linda Rice and Manny Franco have been winning a lot lately, and they could find themselves in the winner’s circle again; #5 JAYME’S TURN (3-1): Is the “other” Rice trainee in this field, and she most recently ran fourth for a slightly larger tag a few weeks ago. Blinkers come off for this event, and she’s another that could be forwardly-placed early on; #3 MS NIKKI D (6-1): Is coming off of a career-best effort, where she ran third against similar going seven furlongs. She’s a closer, which I don’t usually love in races out of the Wilson chute, but at the very least, she’s been reasonably competitive in a similar spot.

R2

Tamino
Into Diamonds
Light Fantastic

#8 TAMINO (7/2): Runs on turf for the first time since his first two career starts in early-2025 at Santa Anita. He ran second on both occasions, and getting back to the lawn could be a big, big plus (especially against a field of restricted claimers that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters); #3 INTO DIAMONDS (9/2): Goes second off a long layoff and takes a big drop in class. He showed some potential in 2024 and 2025 before going to the sidelines, and running for a tag for the first time could wake him up; #6 LIGHT FANTASTIC (3-1): Cuts back from a route to a sprint, and he has back races going short that aren’t bad. One of those was a third-place finish at this route last summer, and this feels like what he wants to do.

R3

Max O Nidas
Parkridge
Maddenbleu

#3 MAX O NIDAS (8/5): Debuts for Steve Asmussen off of a very strong bullet drill at Churchill. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride, which could be a clue, and while this $40,000 purchase debuting for $35,000 is a bit of a red flag, he probably doesn’t have to be much to win on debut; #4 PARKRIDGE (4-1): Did no running in his debut and takes a drop into the maiden claiming ranks at second asking. Bill Mott trainees often need a race to get going, and his numbers with similar class-droppers are very, very strong; #6 MADDENBLEU (5/2): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose numbers with first-time starters are just so-so. However, this barn has been winning with everything in sight lately, first-call rider Manny Franco will be aboard, and the most recent gate drill looks reasonably promising.

R4

Cash Burn
Dry Drastic
Secret Connection

#4 CASH BURN (8/5): Hammered for $370,000 last year and comes in off of a series of very strong drills ahead of her debut for Chad Brown. This daughter of Nyquist is out of a debut winner, and her second dam, Maddalena, was also a first-out winner who added a Grade 3 stakes race; #2 DRY DRASTIC (2-1): Makes her first start for George Weaver and has enticed Hall of Famer John Velazquez to ride. Her dirt works look solid, and this barn can certainly win with first-time starters, but I’m wondering what the story is behind two recent works on the grass; #5 SECRET CONNECTION (5-1): Was bet to 7/2 in her debut but didn’t do much running that day, finishing eighth of 10. Improvement may be coming at second asking from this $90,000 auction purchase, and it’s worth noting that Manny Franco sees fit to hop aboard.

R5

No Compromise (MTO)
Deported
Oligarch

#7 DEPORTED (8/5): Makes his U.S. debut for Wesley Ward, whose numbers this summer aren’t great. However, he gets Lasix for the first time, which can definitely move a horse forward, and he’s facing a group that just hasn’t accomplished much; #3 OLIGARCH (5-1): Ran well two and three back before being compromised by a wide trip last time out. He gets a more friendly draw here and should be forwardly-placed, and we may get a bit of value here given the last-out clunker; #1 HIMOTHY (10-1): Goes back to the dirt and should be on or near the lead early on, given the inside draw and the presence of Kendrick Carmouche. He led most of the way three back against a better group, and if he gets comfortable, he could be the one they have to run down turning for home.

R6

Valtellina
Sweetest Princess
Hello Beauty

#2 VALTELLINA (1-1): Takes a massive drop in class after tackling graded stakes company last time out. Her effort two back in the Critical Eye was very good, and while she’s a closer in this Wilson chute race, her numbers dwarf those of her competition and she may be able to be a bit more forward in this optional claimer for state-breds; #3 SWEETEST PRINCESS (5-1): Figures to be prominent early and has four wins at this one-mile distance. Jose Lezcano got on the board this past weekend after a rough start to the summer, and this mare’s inside speed could give him a chance here; #4 HELLO BEAUTY (8-1): Comes back to dirt, which sure looks to be her preferred surface, and gets reunited with Flavien Prat, who guided her to her most recent win in April. I’m not sure she’s faster than my second choice, but the cutback in distance to one she’s won at in the past should help her, and the morning line price is an attractive one.

R7

Sculcos Folly (MTO)
A Little At First
Jaxer

#3 A LITTLE AT FIRST (3-1): May have moved a bit early in the Rick Violette and gets another shot at this level in the Cab Calloway. Javier Castellano is 2-for-3 on him, and he’s back aboard here. He could sit an ideal stalking trip, and a little more patience might get him home; #7 JAXER (5/2): Got pretty good near the end of last year, when he rallied to take the Notebook over a solid group. He hasn’t raced since, but this is a patient barn that’s heated up of late, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride when he likely had several options in the Thursday feature; #1 CHUMMERS (3-1): Went from winning a restricted claimer to winning a stakes race when he sprang a mild upset in the Rick Violette. He definitely benefited from a fast pace that day, though, and while there’s some speed signed on, deep closers on the inner turf sometimes need quite a bit to go right.

R8

Gracie’s Delight
She’s Got Will
River Tay

#6 GRACIE’S DELIGHT (8-1): Goes up in class, but does so first off the claim for Linda Rice after a runaway score at Keeneland. Her early speed is a plus, and she’s been working very, very well since coming to New York. If she breaks on top beneath John Velazquez, she could forget to stop at a price; #2 SHE’S GOT WILL (3-1): Is 2-for-2 over this turf course and goes first off the claim for Brad Cox, who’s one of the best in the country with new acquisitions. Her best race could win this comfortably, but I am a bit concerned that we’ve only seen her once since December and she drops in class in her first try for this outfit; #4 RIVER TAY (10-1): Won four in a row not long ago and cuts back to sprinting, which feels like what she wants to do. She’s a deep closer, which isn’t a great thing, but if they fly early, this one could come rolling late.