BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $959.25

One of the most annoying words in horse racing made its way into Friday’s Saratoga card. It’s one I’ve never seen before at the Spa, and one I hope to never see again.

If you look at the scheduled distances of today’s turf routes, you don’t see an exact distance. You see an “about” distance. I understand the reason behind this (moving the portable rail to preserve the turf course). Having said that, with one notable exception (the downhill turf course at Santa Anita), “about” distances hit me as a bad look.

Take it from this angle: Here in horse racing, we apparently can’t give you exact distances, we can’t time races consistently, some high-profile courses can’t grow or maintain grass, and we can’t keep major computer groups out of our pools. Tell me again why a novice who’s never been to a track before would invest in horse racing over sports betting, please.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My longshot of the day ran third, so I dropped $50.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on my best bet of the day. That’s #6 FIERCENESS in the sixth, who’s a single for me in $20 doubles starting in that race that end with #3 HEADLAND and #8 ONTHEONESANDTWOS in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday: 3-for-10
Meet: 62-for-206

Best Bet: Fierceness, Race 6
Longshot: Original, Race 4

R1

Moonlight
Walley World
Feltrinelli

#15 MOONLIGHT (7/2): Needs a bunch of scratches to draw into the Friday opener but merits a big chance if he does. He did everything but win in his debut, where he came up a neck short after a wide trip; #5 WALLEY WORLD (4-1): Has scratched out of several races due to the weather issues at the Spa and is bred to love the turf. Chad Brown has enlisted Flavien Prat to ride, and he looks like a well-meant first-time starter; #4 FELTRINELLI (5-1): Sold for $400,000 at the OBS sale this past year and boasts a series of strong workouts for red-hot trainer George Weaver. This son of Uncle Mo looks like a runner and is another with a big shot in a wide-open event.

R2

Vax
Our Rosie Diamonds
Trust the Numbers

#3 VAX (5/2): Takes a big drop first off the claim for Linda Rice, which is sometimes a red flag. However, this is far from an inspiring bunch she faces in this spot, and her two local works hint that she’s doing well ahead of this event; #4 OUR ROSIE DIAMONDS (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but was a good second against similar last time out. She lost to a massive class-dropper that day after doing a lot of the dirty work up front; #5 TRUST THE NUMBERS (2-1): May very well go favored in here, but I have my doubts. This is a $160,000 yearling purchase now running for 10% of that price, she hasn’t run since March, and she’s been working at Monmouth, which isn’t as big a disqualifying factor as it was a few years ago but is still noteworthy. To me, this is a favorite you’re supposed to try to beat.

R3

Self Isolation (MTO)
Roses for Debra
Bubble Rock

#5 ROSES FOR DEBRA (1/2): Has won six of eight carer outings and looms large in the Smart N Fancy. One of those wins came in the Grade 3 Caress earlier in the meet, and she was very, very impressive that day against a good group; #2 BUBBLE ROCK (3-1): Was third behind my top pick in the Caress and may not have cared much for a turf course that had some give in it. She runs very well over firm turf courses, and she’s likely to get her desired footing in this spot; #4 POPPY FLOWER (5-1): Is another that has shown she’s better over firm going and was one-paced in the Caress. There’s some speed in here, and she could very well rally for a piece of it.

R4

Dust Devil (MTO)
Original
High Tide

#3 ORIGINAL (8-1): Goes to the barn of Rick Dutrow, which is as powerful a move as it was 15 years ago now that the outfit is heating up a bit. He’s got plenty of back class and is a major player at a price if Dutrow can get him back or anywhere close to that form; #2 HIGH TIDE (5/2): Tried much tougher competition last time out and was eased home. He was competitive two and three back against similar stock, and his best efforts have come going two turns on turf; #5 LANDBISCUIT (3-1): Was put up via DQ last time out at this level and route after being up close throughout. Joel Rosario rides back when he probably had a few options, and he figures to be prominent from an early stage once again.

R5

Prove Right
Joking Way
Mr Bob

#1 PROVE RIGHT (3-1): Capitalized on the class drop with an easy win last time out at this route against a few horses that also show up in this spot. He’s been working well since and looks to add his second win of the meet in what seems like a logical spot; #6 JOKING WAY (6-1): Exits a key race at Ellis Park, where he ran second behind and in front of next-out winners. Linda Rice claimed him that day, and we all know how dangerous she is with new acquisitions; #7 MR BOB (15-1): Hasn’t been since since trying a few races on the road to the Kentucky Derby earlier this year. Maybe he didn’t like Gulfstream, and maybe those races were just too long for him. His sprints last year were sharp, and if he’s ready to run, the morning line price is an overlay. 

R6

Fierceness
Wajda
Apollo Ten

#6 FIERCENESS (2-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and has every right to be a runner. He’s been working lights-out over this track with a series of sharp gate drills, and if he runs back to those workouts, look out; #4 WAJDA (5-1): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and hammered for $425,000 at the OBS sale. He’s followed that up with a few sharp works here that hint he, too, has plenty of talent; #3 APOLLO TEN (8-1): Hasn’t found the easiest spot for his debut, but seems well-meant and has a superb gate work three works back over the Oklahoma track. Christophe Clement isn’t regarded as a top-tier first-out trainer, but his numbers are solid, and I can’t completely ignore him at his likely price.

R7

Headland
Ontheonesandtwos
You Look Cold

#3 HEADLAND (8/5): Has won two in a row, including a similar race earlier this summer, and seems to have rebound her best form as a 7-year-old mare. First-call rider Jose Ortiz hops aboard for Linda Rice, and a repeat of her last two efforts will make her tough in here; #8 ONTHEONESANDTWOS (5-1): Draws a cushy outside post and has flashed plenty of talent in the past. Her two-back win at Churchill was excellent, and she had every right to need her last-out clunker given that it was her first start in more than a year; #1 YOU LOOK COLD (4-1): Had an excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well, was rushed up, and tired to finish a distant third. She has plenty of prior efforts that are far better than that one, and Joel Rosario knows her pretty well.

R8

Peak Popularity (MTO)
Madaket entry
Anatolian

Being incredibly honest, I found this race impossible to decipher. The favored entry looks tough, but if those horses aren’t ready to fire, I don’t have any particular confidence in any others.

R9

Nest
Idiomatic
Clairiere

#5 NEST (4/5): Returned with a flourish to win the Grade 2 Shuvee and may well be riding a five-race win streak if not for a horrible ride in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff last fall. Simply put, her usual effort beats this bunch in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, which I REALLY wish was still a mile and a quarter; #1 IDIOMATIC (3-1): Overcame a slow start to win the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap and has run several big speed figures in the past. This is certainly a class test, but she’s got plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; #6 CLAIRIERE (5/2): Is as easy a horse to root for as any in training, having won multiple Grade 1 races and banked more than $3.1 million. She did not, however, seem to have any excuse in the Shuvee, and my top pick may be even sharper second off the bench.

R10

Cowichan
Bourbon and Honey
Oolong Hai

#2 COWICHAN (3-1): Ran well off the bench when last seen at Keeneland, and that race has produced several next-out winners. She’s had plenty of chances, and this is probably a “now or never” spot, but this doesn’t seem to be a field of world-beaters, either; #6 BOURBON AND HONEY (8-1): Has run once, in an off-the-turf race more than a year ago, but this barn is excellent with horses coming off of long breaks and she’s bred to love the lawn. It also helps that both that race’s winner and second-place finisher came back to win at next asking; #9 OOLONG HAI (6-1): Looks like the main speed in here, for sure, given several of her efforts at Gulfstream and Belmont. She’s definitely got stamina concerns, but she also seems like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home.