BANKROLL

In lieu of something timely and witty (since I’ll be in Colorado through Monday), my bankroll section will focus much more on ticket construction advice.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I really like #2 MAJOR DUDE in the ninth, an optional claimer that looks much more like a Grade 3 stakes race. Because of the field size and the quality lining up around him, I think we’ll get a bettable price, even if he’s the favorite. Because I think his best race crushes these, those odds hit me as an overlay.

I’ll have a $25 win bet on him, and I’ll also use him in $5 exactas keying him above #1 PIONEERING SPIRIT and #8 ANDTHEWINNERIS. Finally, I’ll have a $5 cold double linking Major Dude with my longshot of the day, #5 GALA BRAND in the Lake George. Oversubscribed is my top pick there, but the likely odds on that one don’t make playing her a good idea.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Major Dude, Race 9
Longshot: Gala Brand, Race 10

R1

Clever Again
Academy
English Law

#3 CLEVER AGAIN (7/2): Dueled throughout in his debut going short at Keeneland and lost a tight photo. What he’s bred for, however, is a turf route like this one. He’s by American Pharoah, out of a Galileo mare, and he has a significant experience edge over most of his rivals in the Saturday opener; #11 ACADEMY (10-1): Will need a scratch to draw in off the AE list but merits respect if he does. This son of Oscar Performance sold for $310,000 last year at Keeneland and has been working steadily for Graham Motion; #10 ENGLISH LAW (15-1): Doesn’t draw very well in his debut for Mark Casse, but while Casse’s firsters often need a race, his numbers with debuting routers are much stronger than his overall stats with first-time starters. This son of English Channel is bred to love the turf.

R2

It Takes Heart
Jacobson entry
Everlys Girl

#5 IT TAKES HEART (9/5): Drops significantly in class for a barn doing this a lot in the opening stages of the meet. Her lone race here was arguably the best effort of her career, and her three races so far this season have come against much, much better company; JACOBSON ENTRY (7/5): I prefer #1A SELF ISOLATION, who makes her second start off the bench. Both runners take significant class drops for a barn that’s usually pretty dangerous with that move, but this outfit’s runners have been tough to figure out so far this stand; #6 EVERLYS GIRL (8-1): Has plenty of early speed and gets a solid outside draw in here. That could allow her to dictate terms early on, and the two most recent times she’s gotten comfortable up front, she hasn’t stopped.

R3

King Puck
Outtawaterbury
Nano Man

#1 KING PUCK (1-1): Was a solid second in his unveiling downstate and has a right to improve at second asking for trainer Christophe Clement. He showed enough speed in that race to make me think he can use the rail draw as an asset, and any move forward should make him tough to catch; #8 OUTTAWATERBURY (8-1): Goes third off the bench here and did make up some ground when fourth last time out. The jockey switch to John Velazquez is a big one, and he should be going the right way late; #2 NANO MAN (6-1): Was a close-up second against maiden claimers downstate and steps back up in class third off the bench. He debuted with a solid second here last summer, and it’s possible he’s turned a corner for one of the more patient horsemen on the backstretch.

R4

Boss Tweed
Fast Buck Freddy
Silver Satin

#3 BOSS TWEED (4-1): Has seen the lightbulb go off in his last two starts, both of which he’s won in wire-to-wire fashion. He didn’t beat much two back, but his last-out score was a solid one and looks even better given that the runner-up came back to win at next asking; #5 FAST BUCK FREDDY (6-1): Hasn’t run since November, but sports several very strong drills, including a bullet five-furlong work on July 13th. The presence of Tyler Gaffalione seems like a clue, and I think he could be sitting on a big one in his first try of the year; #1 SILVER SATIN (2-1): Didn’t run terribly in his first try against winners, which came last month over this track. The rail draw seems a bit tricky, though, and this barn also sends out my second choice (at, likely, a significantly bigger price). All of that makes this a tough favorite to endorse on top.

R5

Safalow’s Mission
Midnight Express
Bobby the Tank

#3 SAFALOW’S MISSION (2-1): Is a “hold my nose” top pick given his 1-for-20 record and the likely short price. However, this seems like a very soft spot for this level, which is by far the lowest one he’s ever run at. His usual race, figures-wise, makes him a major player in a race where I find most of the bigger prices impossible to endorse; #2 MIDNIGHT EXPRESS (8-1): Is a consistent sort who’s run a few decent races at this level downstate. Most recently, he was third against similar last month, and the jockey switch to Joel Rosario is worth noting; #8 BOBBY THE TANK (9/2): May be the main speed in here and adds blinkers, which means his strategy shouldn’t be rocket science. The question is, given his record of folding in the late stages of races, how confident can you be in this one sticking around once the real running starts?

R6

St. Benedicts Prep (MTO)
Reconcile
Reflexivity

#1 RECONCILE (4-1): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love the lawn. This daughter of War Front also gets Lasix for the first time, and she’s shown more than enough early zip to put her up front in the early stages of this turf sprint; #7 REFLEXIVITY (9/2): May have needed her 2024 debut, which came after a long layoff and saw her get bumped around at the start. Trainer Mike Maker puts the blinkers on here, and she has every right to step forward in this spot; #6 PAROLA SICURA (5/2): Exits a stakes race at Laurel, where she ran a credible second at a big, big price. She’s 0-for-3 on the turf, and the price seems a bit tough to swallow, but she could also still be improving, and it’s not like it’s impossible for her to win this, either.

R7

Social Hour
Authentic Gallop
Track Ranger

#10 SOCIAL HOUR (6-1): Is one of many debuting runners in an intriguing 2-year-old maiden event and draws a cushy outside post for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The last two local workouts seem very, very sharp, and I prefer this one to stablemate #7 BE REAL, who isn’t without talent but may be overbet; #2 AUTHENTIC GALLOP (8-1): Fetched $300,000 at auction and has been working steadily for Tom Amoss, who has enlisted Tyler Gaffalione to ride. Some of his Kentucky drills are swift, and while I think he may want a bit longer, there’s also a chance he’s talented enough to win on debut; #8 TRACK RANGER (8-1): Makes his first start for Brad Cox and has turned in a number of solid works at Churchill Downs of late. It’s not often we get this kind of price on a runner from that barn, and I don’t think he’s without a shot.

R8

Federal Judge
Gun It
Arro Smash

#2 FEDERAL JUDGE (2-1): Makes his first start in more than a year, and I think there’s reason to be excited. He was last seen running fourth in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens. He’s since been gelded, the workouts look strong, and he’ll be tough if he’s ready to go; #3 GUN IT (4-1): Exits the Grade 2 True North, where he set a fast pace and faded late. He gets Lasix on the drop in class, and most of his best races have come at this level; #7 ARRO SMASH (4-1): Has run just once since November, but that was a solid effort to be second in a fast optional claimer at Churchill Downs. This barn means business when it ships in, and he has 2023 races that merit some respect.

R9

Cooke Creek (MTO)
Major Dude
Andthewinneris

#2 MAJOR DUDE (3-1): Almost certainly needed his 2024 debut off such a long break and looms large second off the bench in a loaded optional claimer. This three-time graded stakes winner has shown his talent on multiple occasions, and he seems like the one to beat here; #8 ANDTHEWINNERIS (5-1): Hasn’t run since May of 2023 and has had a few big changes since then. He’s a gelding now, and he’s been sent to new trainer Chad Brown. He accomplished a fair bit before going to the sidelines, and he should be rolling late if he’s ready to run; #1 PIONEERING SPIRIT (10-1): Got very good here last year, when he won two races and was third in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. I think he may want to go a bit longer, but the drop in class after a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup could move him forward.

R10

Oversubscribed
Gala Brand
Sweet Rebecca

#2 OVERSUBSCRIBED (5/2): Came from way, way back to win the Wild Applause downstate and will take plenty of logical money in the Grade 3 Lake George. She had plenty of excuses in her lone defeat to date, and with only three starts under her belt, she may have room to move forward; #5 GALA BRAND (12-1): Hasn’t done much running since a pair of electrifying wins here last summer. However, she was coming off a long break in the Wild Applause, returns to her favorite turf course second off the bench, and sure seems like an overlay at or near this morning line price; #6 SWEET REBECCA (7/2): May have bounced off of a solid two-back score when fifth as an odds-on favorite in the Grade 2 Wonder Again. She was close to a legitimate pace that day, though, and she may find a more friendly setup in this spot.

R11

Thorpedo Anna
Leslie’s Rose
Candied

#3 THORPEDO ANNA (1/2): Won’t be any sort of a price in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, but given what’s lined up against her, I can’t go any other direction. She’s simply shown she’s much better than what runs against her here, and anything remotely close to any of her three prior 2024 efforts means the race is for second; #4 LESLIE’S ROSE (5-1): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick in the Grade 1 Acorn, which was a much-improved performance from her two-back dud in the slop at Churchill. Toss that clunker, and you’re left with a runner that really hasn’t done a heck of a lot wrong; #1 CANDIED (5/2): Cruised home against much weaker competition at Monmouth last time out and dives back into the deep end here. She earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure that day and annexed a Grade 1 last season, but this is her biggest class test since running third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

R12

The Jackal
Brown entry
Artempus

#8 THE JACKAL (6-1): Comes off a long layoff but boasts a few solid races at similar marathon distances, which isn’t experience many others in this field have. The break is certainly a question mark, but at least we know the 12-furlong trip shouldn’t be an issue, and that’s a legitimate hurdle for many others in the Saturday finale; #1 FACTOR ANALYSIS (7/5): Has burned plenty of money in four starts to date, including a last-out effort where he was second at odds of 1/2. His two races at 11 furlongs were fine, but with so many near-misses, it’s tough to get excited about him at such a short price; #3 ARTEMPUS (8-1): Found himself on the lead last time out and faded to fourth behind an impressive winner. He’s since been gelded, and his pedigree says the added distance ought to be right up his street.