Author: Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/3/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $997.25

Earlier this week, a number of members of the horse racing media fell victim to a fake story involving prominent sire Tapit and an, um…interesting way of collecting some of the most valuable sperm in the breeding industry. Search for Tapit on Twitter, and many of the pieces will start to come together.

Long story short: If you fell for it, or even for a second considered it to potentially be true…REALLY?!?!?!?!?!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Turning 1/2 odds into 5/2 odds doesn’t sound so flashy, but doing so in the late double led to a nice score. Carina Mia was odds-on, and when she and Todd Pletcher firster March X Press both won, we turned our $30 investment into a smooth $105. By comparison, had we simply bet that $30 to win on Carina Mia, we’d have cashed out for a mere $46.50.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep this pretty simple. I think the fifth is a two-horse race between #2 MAD DOG MATTERS and #5 SENZA TE. I’ll box them in $10 exactas and use them to close out $5 doubles that begin with fourth-race single #2 BECKER’S GALAXY.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Becker’s Galaxy, Race 4
Longshot: Mad Dog Matters, Race 5

R1

Sarah Joyce
For Goodness Sake
Amazing Anthem

SARAH JOYCE: Won two in a row before misfiring last time out over soft ground. Judging by her past clunkers across the pond in races on that kind of turf, she wants it firm, and she’ll be tough if she gets those conditions; FOR GOODNESS SAKE: Beat my top pick two back but got six pounds and a favorable setup that day. That said, her best is good enough to win this; AMAZING ANTHEM: Broke her maiden over hurdles two back. This is a major class test, but she gets a hot rider, and the race seems wide-open for underneath honors behind my top two.

R2

Iwishirish
Desert Affair
Love You Dearly

IWISHIRISH: Took a big step forward off a long layoff downstate. The rail draw isn’t ideal for her late-running style, but there’s plenty of speed signed on and these connections merit respect; DESERT AFFAIR: Did all the dirty work and was nailed on the wire last time out. She’s got a habit of collecting minor awards, but she could sit a dream trip if she can clear some of her inside rivals out of the gate; LOVE YOU DEARLY: Showed speed in her debut at Finger Lakes and ships in for a barn that popped with several similar horses here last summer. She figures to be very prominent early on.

R3

Hogy
Big Rock
Angry Moon

HOGY: Gets the top pick in what struck me as a two-horse race. He’s been running against much better horses for most of his career and exits the Jaipur, where the victorious Disco Partner set a world record; BIG ROCK: Was 2-for-2 at this route last summer but hasn’t won since. The return to this configuration could wake him up; ANGRY MOON: Seems like the main early speed on paper and has a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures to his credit. However, he hasn’t run since November, and there’s a chance he needs a race to get going. DIRT SELECTIONS: ANGRY MOON, ANYTIME ANYPLACE, HEY JABBER JAW.

R4

Becker’s Galaxy
Rodriguez entry
Jet Black

BECKER’S GALAXY: Drops back in to face state-breds after finishing a distant second behind Small Bear, who hit the board earlier this meet in the Curlin. Danny Gargan’s barn is firing on all cylinders, and this one is a logical wire-to-wire threat; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: I prefer the returning GOOD LUCK GUS to the off-form ROYAL POSSE. The former ran against stakes competition for most of last year and will make his first start as a gelding in this spot; JET BLACK: Has run well at this route before and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro in his last start, which was his first since February. Improvement is logical at a bit of a price.

R5

Mad Dog Matters
Senza Te
Lady Blessings

MAD DOG MATTERS: Has several strong drills in her worktab ahead of her debut for Rudy Rodriguez, who has snuck several talented 2-year-olds past maiden claiming ranks in the past (including Condo Commando for this ownership group a few years ago). 6-1 would be a very juicy price; SENZA TE: Is trained by Wesley Ward, who’s among the best in the game with first-time starters. The pedigree and workouts are both strong, and she could be ready to go right away; LADY BLESSINGS: Gets the services of Javier Castellano in her debut. This barn’s numbers with debuting runners aren’t great, and neither is the rail draw, but the workouts show that this filly may have some talent.

R6

Avery Maeve
May Flowers
R Lucky Charm

AVERY MAEVE: Gets my reluctant top selection in a race where I’d strongly advise hitting the “ALL” button in multi-race wagers. She’s yet to run a bad race on turf and won at this route last summer; MAY FLOWERS: Ended a long winless drought last time out at Belmont and returns to a turf course she’s had success over in the past. Jose Ortiz stays aboard, and she’s a big price on the morning line; R LUCKY CHARM: Nearly prevailed in an off-the-turf event last time out and may be the main speed from her inside post. This barn can get hot in a hurry, and if she gets loose early, look out. DIRT SELECTIONS: R LUCKY CHARM, HEXAMETER, FIRST APPEAL.

R7

Kahrumana
Danceland
Tamit

KAHRUMANA: Graduated last time out while well in hand, and she hadn’t done much wrong in two starts before that, either. Her flexibility is a plus, and she could still be improving; DANCELAND: Closed well to be second last time out downstate, and her lone win came going a two-turn route of ground. There appears to be some speed to her inside, and the faster they go early, the better this one should like it; TAMIT: Was beaten less than three lengths in a Grade 3 two back and was up against it in a paceless race last time out. She’s another that will benefit from some early zip in front of her. DIRT SELECTIONS: COLORFUL CHARADES, OVERNEGOTIATE, CRIMSON FROST.

R8

Tu Brutus
Scuba
Turco Bravo

TU BRUTUS: Will likely scratch to await Saturday’s Whitney but is too good not to put on top in case the connections call an audible. Anything close to his races two or three back would make this a rout; SCUBA: Was probably the best marathoner in the country late last year but has disappointed in three 2017 outings. This barn has been hot lately, though, and if he finds his form, he’ll be tough; TURCO BRAVO: Won this race last year and should relish a return to this route. Javier Castellano was aboard that day, and he climbs back on here.

R9

Whiskey Seven
Seize
Runaway Posse

WHISKEY SEVEN: Generally runs the same race every time out and has run into some solid fields for this level of late. He gets my top selection in another turf race that doubles as a real handicapping puzzle; SEIZE: Showed speed in his 2017 debut before fading to sixth. He ran a nice race here last year from a tough outside post and could enjoy a return to this route; RUNAWAY POSSE: Merits a look in the event of a pace meltdown, which could happen given the big field that’s signed on. This barn has had success of late, and we may get a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: WHISKEY SEVEN, CURIOUS CAL, POP THE HOOD.

R10

Wish Upon
Scarlett Jo Hansen
Paz the Wine

WISH UPON: Took a huge step forward when second at this level downstate. There’s a chance at a bounce here, but a repeat of that performance could win this wide-open finale; SCARLETT JO HANSEN: Was beaten a nose by my top selection in her last effort, and like my top pick, she took a big step up that day. The question with her is if there’ll be enough early speed to set up for her late kick; PAZ THE WINE: Stretches out to a route after some solid races going shorter at Belmont. She was third in a two-turn race last year at Aqueduct and may have more tactical speed than she’s shown of late. DIRT SELECTIONS: MAJESTIC MAC, SCARLETT JO HANSEN, GOT THE GIST.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/2/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $922.25

At most places, Wednesday cards consist of shorter, lower-quality fields than you’ll see on weekends. Not so, however, on the 11th day of the Saratoga meet. The races comprising the late Pick Four boast a combined total of 41 betting interests, and that’s not even counting the also-eligibles that could run in the event of a scratch. If you’re playing that sequence, good luck; if you hit, chances are you’ll be rewarded handsomely!

MONDAY’S RESULTS: I thought Winston’s Chance was worth a look in the exotics in the seventh, but at no point did I think he was beating my best bet of the day, Minsky Moment. Unfortunately for my Pick Four ticket, the Finger Lakes shipper got an easy lead and held on. After scratches, we dropped $24.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: If #3 CARINA MIA fires anything close to her best shot in the ninth (the Shine Again Stakes), every other horse is running for second money. I’ll hope to get a smidgeon of value out of that one by singling her in $10 doubles that end with #5 IMPERFECT UNION, #7 MARCH X PRESS, and #9 PURELY LUCKY in the 10th.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Carina Mia, Race 9
Longshot: My Man Jax, Race 5

R1

Invocation
Alcazar de Maram
Unsinkable

INVOCATION: Has not run a bad race over hurdles since coming to North America four back and jogged home by 16 when last seen in My. His consistency gives him an edge; ALCAZAR DE MARAM: Won his seasonal debut on the flat at Parx and merits respect for one of the top steeplechase trainers in the country. He’ll need to beat winners to take this, though, and he hasn’t done that before; UNSINKABLE: Hit an iceberg here last year when beaten 81 lengths as an odds-on favorite. He hasn’t won since, but he was nosed by a next-out winner when last seen at Parx.

R2

Avast Matey
Top Brass
Sound the Horns

AVAST MATEY: Makes his New York debut after spending the first part of his career in Florida. The new surface is a concern, but he’s been working lights-out at Belmont and here ahead of this race and he should be prominent early; TOP BRASS: Drops down in class and is 2-for-2 over fast dirt tracks. These connections must be respected, but the limited worktab off the layoff is a bit of a red flag; SOUND THE HORNS: Looked great when topping winners last out at Presque Isle. This field is likely better than what he beat that day on a synthetic track, but a repeat of that effort likely gets him a piece of it here.

R3

Harlan Punch (MTO)
Astounding
Shamcat

ASTOUNDING: Has found his niche on turf of late. His win two back was sharp, and he followed it up with a solid second when rating off a very slow pace. That day’s winner, Kantune, came back to run well a few days ago; SHAMCAT: Has done very little wrong since going to the grass earlier this year. His lone win to date came going two turns, and he gets such a route this afternoon; CARBON DATA: Ran well to win a key maiden race two back and was likely compromised by a fast pace when favored last out. He shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast early on in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: HARLAN PUNCH, GOING STRONG, ASTOUNDING.

R4

Northern Screamer
Lady Paradime
Bon Heir

NORTHERN SCREAMER: Is in career form, having won four in a row heading into this event. This barn hasn’t run many to this point in the meet, but the record says the ones they send out are well-meant; LADY PARADIME: Drops back down to the right level after clunkers against better in each of her last two starts. She was a good second at this route against comparable horses last summer; BON HEIR: Drops down into the straight claiming ranks second off the layoff. She was 8/5 in a stakes race two back, and her best race would be competitive here.

R5

Borsa Vento (MTO)
Let’s Get Loud
My Man Jax

LET’S GET LOUD: Tries two turns for the first time and has the pedigree to love it. He was a decent third behind a pair of next-out winners in his seasonal debut and should improve off that performance; MY MAN JAX: Was second in each of his first two races, which were both turf routes. Those can be tough spots to run well in early on in a horse’s career, and this barn has had a stellar year to this point; NINETY ONE ASSAULT: Gets a two-turn route of ground, and many of his best races have come at that configuration. Hesitation to bet him to win is logical given his prior money-burning ways, but he merits a long look underneath. DIRT SELECTIONS: BORSA VENTO, RIVER DEEP, FASTLANEFRONTMAN.

R6

Devine Union
Tiz Super
Opined

DEVINE UNION: Gets my top pick in a race where I could make a case for most runners. She was so-so as a 2-year-old, but her worktab of late shows she may have taken a big step forward ahead of her 3-year-old debut for powerhouse connections; TIZ SUPER: Faltered when bet in her debut last year, but she came back running last month at Belmont. She was beaten just a length and appears to have come out of that race well judging by the recent drills; OPINED: Ran into some classy runners last year and held her own. She may be favored, but I think she wants more ground than she gets in this spot.

R7

Good Luck Gus (MTO)
Startup Nation
Iron Power

STARTUP NATION: Just missed in a swiftly-run mile race at Belmont in what doubled as his return off a year-long layoff. He won a Grade 2 here in 2014 and has knocked heads with plenty of top turf runners, and there should be plenty of pace to set up for his late kick; IRON POWER: Makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice and drops down in class. He hasn’t won in a while, but was aggressively-spotted by his previous connections and may appreciate the class relief he gets here; NEVISIAN SKY: Got a perfect setup in his turf debut and stopped the timer in less than 1:20 for the seven-furlong distance. This distance and trip is an unknown, but the faster they go early, the better this one will likely fare. DIRT SELECTIONS: GOOD LUCK GUS, JET BLACK, JOHN’S ISLAND.

R8

Just Got Out (MTO)
Homeland Security
Lucky Long

HOMELAND SECURITY: Won going a mile and a quarter in just her second career start, which is very difficult to do. She’s bred up and down to want to go as long as possible, and she gets my top pick in what I thought was the toughest race of the day to handicap; LUCKY LONG: Could be the only horse in this field with any early zip. She was beaten less than two lengths two back by Morticia, a multiple stakes winner. The blinkers come off, which is often a good sign for a horse with tactical speed; CHURCH SOCIAL: Was a good second at a similar level and route downstate. Rosario getting off this one raises some eyebrows, but Jose Ortiz getting on is intriguing. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, HOMELAND SECURITY, FLOWER VALLEY.

R9

Carina Mia
Clipthecouponannie
Going for Broke

CARINA MIA: Boasts a metric ton of back class and gets away from the divisional heavyweights in her first start for Chad Brown. Not having to chase the likes of Songbird and Paulassilverlining should be a big help, and her best race would likely crush this group; CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE: Ran a clunker last time out, but I think you can toss that race. It came over a very tough surface to run on, and she may have bounced off a nice win at this level two back; GOING FOR BROKE: Was second behind Songbird in last year’s Alabama and makes her seasonal debut here. She may want more ground, but her one-turn mile efforts from last year were sharp, and her back class could mean a nice check in her return to the races.

R10

Imperfect Union
Big Expense (MTO)
Purely Lucky

IMPERFECT UNION: Is the only horse in this field with a turf start under her belt. She showed early speed that day for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. That foundation could be a big help; PURELY LUCKY: Is a half to two stakes winners and has a chance if she’s anywhere close to as precocious as her siblings. She goes out for a barn that excels in turf sprints; MARCH X PRESS: Is a Todd Pletcher trainee with a turf pedigree. He’s a half to Harlan’s Honor, who won a stakes race going short on the sod as a 2-year-old. DIRT SELECTIONS: IMPERFECT UNION, BIG EXPENSE, DATS HER.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Short Fields in Big Races, and How to Stop Them

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Sunday’s Shuvee at Saratoga made handicappers from all walks of life wince. The race named for a mare that won back-to-back renewals of the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1970 and 1971 (back when that race was the biggest race for older horses on the east coast), one that boasted Grade 3 status and a healthy $200,000 purse…drew just a three-horse field.

This is a recurring theme this year, and it’s a growing concern around the country. The Beholder Mile, a Grade 1 race for older fillies and mares at Santa Anita, saw another three-horse field. Sharp Azteca demolished just three others in Sunday’s Monmouth Cup. Saturday’s Jim Dandy, the main local prep race for the Travers Stakes, had a five-horse field, as did the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar a day later.

What’s going on here? These races are the ones fans care about, and, allegedly, they’re the ones big-money owners get in the game to compete in. If that’s the case, why are top horses continually avoiding these spots, leaving the track, fans, and gamblers to suffer and grouse?

As I mentioned in Sunday’s edition of The Pink Sheet, there’s no easy answer to this problem. What we’re seeing here is a combination of factors, ones I hope to shed a bit of light on in this edition of “The Dark Day Files.” Got something to add? Think I nailed it? Think I’m full of…something? Send in your questions and comments. I promise, I read every one.

The first thing to consider is the declining foal crop. When you start off with less possible horses and have the same number of races, average field size is going to decrease. This, unfortunately, is a problem that isn’t going away anytime soon, nor is there anything resembling an easy solution. Thankfully, there are other factors the industry can influence that may lend a hand in solving the short field conundrum.

I’ve talked at length in past columns at many previous stops about the breeding industry and how the tail wags the dog in many instances. In prior decades, horses were bred to run and did just that for many years. It wasn’t uncommon to see top horses run 10-15 times per year for multiple years. Now, though, if you’ve got an exceptional 3-year-old male, stallion rights are often purchased very early, and the priority often becomes getting them to their second careers unscathed.

From the financial standpoint of owners and breeders, this is logical. A male horse can only earn so much money in a career, and will earn exponentially more at stud. Take, for instance, American Pharoah, who commanded $200,000 for his breeding services in 2016 and had dates with more than 200 mares. On paper, that results in a cool $40 million, and we won’t even know if his offspring can run until 2019! That we didn’t get to see him race against California Chrome and Arrogate as a 4-year-old is unfortunate, but given these financial figures, we should be extremely grateful we got to see him run three times after he made Belmont Park’s grandstand shake.

I have nothing against breeding operations, many of which double as some of horse racing’s top owners and do great things for the sport. They’re taking advantage of a proven business model, as they have every right to do in such a competitive industry. With that said, here’s the most important question that we need a definitive answer to: Are we still breeding to race, or are we racing to breed?

If we’re breeding to race, let’s breed for stamina and soundness instead of pure speed and, ahem, “brilliance.” Let’s make sure the horses that rise to the top of the game are given the chance to stay there and can run more than once every two or three months, and let’s give fans chances to see them do their thing at racetracks around the country. If we’re racing to breed…well, then that opens up a can of worms this column can’t address.

Meanwhile, there’s also plenty that tracks can do to solve the problems short fields bring. They’re hurt by those in many ways, from the negative publicity they result in to the lack of handle they generate. NYRA, in fact, buried the Shuvee as the first race on Sunday’s card, so as to keep it out of the Pick Six and Pick Four sequences.

The most obvious answer is to reward the horses and connections that run multiple times at the highest level. Give them additional reasons to show up, perhaps bonuses for horses who sweep certain races or finish best in a certain series. Forever Unbridled skipped the Shuvee, a race she would’ve almost certainly been favored in, to await the Personal Ensign on Travers Day. Would that decision have been made if, say, $250,000 was to be awarded to connections of horses who win multiple graded stakes races at the same Saratoga meet? I don’t know, but I bet that carrot being dangled would have at least gotten the connections thinking about it. Furthermore, that could’ve easily brought a mare or two from Monmouth’s Molly Pitcher (which somehow drew eight horses for half the purse) up north earlier than anticipated. To go further still, imagine what such a bonus program would do for 2-year-old races at Saratoga, which are already considered some of the most competitive in the world.

Del Mar has gotten rave reviews for their “Ship and Win” program, one that helps ensure fields are full and brings in connections that don’t normally frequent California meets. Install a similar program at Saratoga, one that provides travel reimbursement and purse incentives, and you’ll likely see an increase in field sizes, especially for big races. NYRA can certainly find the money to make all of this happen, and for the sake of the product and to avoid future embarrassment in graded stakes races on big stages, they should do just that.

There are other, smaller things that can be done, of course. Let’s get a neutral study on the effects of certain race-day medications (like Lasix) on a horse’s long-term soundness and strength. Let’s forgive horses that lose (looking at you, Arrogate bashers), or horses that win, but not the way we want them to (looking at you, Songbird bashers). Let’s appreciate the horses that stick around for a while and make us remember why we fell in love with the game, rather than attempt to nitpick their resumes for what they didn’t do (looking at you, Wise Dan bashers who couldn’t stand that he raced mostly on turf).

I’m a handicapper, a gambler, a social media producer, and a writer. Above all, though, I’m a fan of this great game, one where you can be closer to the athletes than anywhere else and legally make money if your opinion is correct. I sincerely hope that this trend of short fields goes down as an unfortunate fad akin to the pet rock, the Macarena, and male rompers. If it doesn’t, top-tier racing, with the exception of a few big days, could be in for a world of hurt.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/31/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $946.25

Didn’t we just get here? Monday’s card marks the 10th day of the 40-day Saratoga meet, meaning a quarter of the meet will be over at the conclusion of racing today. Part of Saratoga’s charm is the boutique nature of its meet (note to NYRA: change this at your own peril), but it’s striking how quickly the action comes and goes. Hopefully, you’ve been enjoying yourself and have cashed a few tickets along the way.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We didn’t hit our cold late double, but we still made money. New York’s Finest prevailed at 5-1 in the finale, J.S. Choice was second in the ninth at 7/2, and we cashed out for $63.25, up $38.25 from our $25 investment.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play a 50-cent late Pick Four ticket built around my best bet of the day. I’ll use #1 CHARMING CLARE, #5 FROSTY LADY, and #10 MY GOOD VENEZUELA in the sixth, single #6 MINSKY MOMENT in the seventh, include #1 LET IT RIDE MOM, #3 NO MORE BABIES, #5 INDIA MANTUANA, #6 EPPING FOREST, #8 MORTICIA, and #9 LADY ALEXANDRA in the eighth, and end with #1 DAB, #9 I MISS MY FATHER (hi, Dad), #10 MARTINO, and #16 BROOKLYN MAJOR (if he draws in) in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Minsky Moment, Race 7
Longshot: Frosty Lady, Race 6

R1

Battlement
Miss Kentucky
True Charm

BATTLEMENT: Is strictly the one to beat if you only consider this filly’s sprint races. She’s pace-dependent, but there figures to be plenty of early zip signed on; MISS KENTUCKY: Has showed ample early speed to this point in her career. She tries turf for the first time, but she’s got the pedigree to do well on the lawn; TRUE CHARM: Has run several clunkers on dirt but gets back to her preferred surface and route in this spot. She ran well here twice last year and could be a decent price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MISS KENTUCKY, PRAY FOR BOURBON, BATTLEMENT.

R2

Itsabigboy (MTO)
Peace Speaker
Now in a Drive

PEACE SPEAKER: Showed huge improvement in his first turf start, getting nailed near the wire in his first-ever route. The post position isn’t ideal, but he seems like the main speed in here and may be tough to run down if he gets comfortable; NOW IN A DRIVE: Was edged by my top pick last time out. A repeat of any of his 2017 races could win this, but given that he’s had plenty of chances of late, I’m hesitant to take low odds on him; MOHICAN: Makes his first start since October, but showed some talent as a 2-year-old. Both winners of his two 2016 turf races won at next asking, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: ITSABIGBOY, TARPON BAY ROAD, PEACE SPEAKER.

R3

Moana
Smile Big
Blenheim Palace

MOANA: Has been running against much better of late and takes a big class drop here. She was last seen running third in the Mother Goose, and she may say “you’re welcome” to Todd Pletcher for finding a softer spot; SMILE BIG: Is a consistent router who always seems to show up. She could be forwardly placed today given the likely race shape, and these connections must be respected; BLENHEIM PALACE: Finally broke through last time out after burning plenty of money in maiden races. She comes back to dirt for her first try against winners, but this turned out to be a pretty tough spot.

R4

Shane’s Jewel
Joopster
Factor This

SHANE’S JEWEL: Showed some speed in his debut at Monmouth, which came over a sloppy track. He was bet a bit that day, and John Servis has excelled dropping horses into the maiden claiming ranks; JOOPSTER: Is a well-bred firster with some flashy works, which makes his debut in a maiden claiming race pretty puzzling. Debuting runners from this barn must be respected; FACTOR THIS: May be bred for turf rather than dirt, but has a series of OK works downstate for a barn that has popped at a price here in the past.

R5

Aktabantay
Starship Wildcat
Ray’swarrior (MTO)

AKTABANTAY: Was in a bit too tough last month, but drops to the level he probably wants here. He reeled off two straight wins against claimers before that race, and there should be plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late-running style; STARSHIP WILDCAT: Tried Grade 3 company earlier this month and drops to a more appropriate level here. He did strong work earlier this year at Gulfstream, including running a close second behind the talented Pay Any Price three back; PADILLA: Makes his first start for Chad Summers and has been competitive throughout a busy campaign. The post isn’t great, but he’s a contender with the right trip. DIRT SELECTIONS: RAY’SWARRIOR, FULL SALUTE, NO HIDING PLACE.

R6

Just Got Out (MTO)
My Good Venezuela
Frosty Lady

MY GOOD VENEZUELA: Drops in for a tag second off a layoff for an aggressive barn. She hasn’t run a bad race going long on turf for this outfit, and she gets my top selection in a race that seems pretty wide-open; FROSTY LADY: Was nearly my top pick and may be the controlling early speed in here. She prevailed against state-breds last time out, is a perfect 2-for-2 over this turf course, and seems like a must-use; CHARMING CLARE: Takes a big class drop in her circuit debut for Mike Maker. The rider is one to get familiar with if you’re not already, and she could be a player if the Midwest form comes east. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, MERILORE, FLICK OF AN EYE.

R7

Minsky Moment
Blame the Thief
Winston’s Chance

MINSKY MOMENT: Hasn’t done much wrong in three starts and broke through last time out in the slop at Belmont. He tries winners and two turns for the first time, but this doesn’t seem like a tremendous group, and a repeat of either downstate race should be good enough to win; BLAME THE THIEF: Comes back to dirt after two so-so turf efforts at Belmont. His win three back was pretty good, and he could go early, especially with an aggressive rider on his back; WINSTON’S CHANCE: Has won two in a row going long at Finger Lakes and was a daylight winner in his last effort. It remains to be seen if he can rate, but he merits a look in the exotics at an OK price.

R8

India Mantuana
Morticia
Lady Alexandra

INDIA MANTUANA: Was a close-up third last out at Woodbine in what was a pretty steep cutback in distance. She did have a solid setup that day, but with ample early speed signed on here, she could see a similar trip today; MORTICIA: Has yet to run a bad race on turf, and her only loss in five starts on the lawn to date came to the talented La Coronel. She’s a logical favorite, and it helps that she rated a bit last time out; LADY ALEXANDRA: Makes her first start for Tom Proctor and has shown potential to this point in her career. She’s a stakes-placed filly that could sit a solid stalking trip just off the speed. DIRT SELECTIONS: NO MORE BABIES, LET IT RIDE MOM, LADY ALEXANDRA.

R9

Brooklyn Major
Dab
Martino

BROOKLYN MAJOR: Needs two scratches to draw in and has not races in more than a year, but the most recent work indicates he may be ready to run. This would be his first start for a tag, as well as his first start as a gelding; DAB: Comes back to dirt and adds blinkers, which could be handy given the rail draw. He was an OK third at this route in his debut, and he may get the early lead by default given the relative lack of speed in this field; MARTINO: Has been busy this year, having already made 12 starts as a 3-year-old. His most recent outing was probably his best race to date, and it’s encouraging that Castellano stays aboard.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 7/30/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908

Three-horse fields in graded stakes races should not happen anywhere, let alone Saratoga, but here we are. Today’s Shuvee has only attracted three older fillies or mares, and with all due respect to the solid trio signed on, that’s just appalling. In an odd twist, today’s Molly Pitcher at Monmouth, which has the same graded status for the same division of horses and half the purse, has no such issues, with eight horses signed on. Is Chris Christie closing bridges again?

All kidding aside, it’s easy to point fingers and blame tracks, or horsemen, or any other group you want to yell at, but the problem goes much deeper than that. I’ll attempt to dissect it in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I had a really good day in the pick box, but Hunter O’Riley gave the bankroll a kick to the gut with his 16-1 upset win in the Bowling Green. It knocked me out of the Pick Five, but losses were limited to $24 after A.P. Indian scratched out of the Vanderbilt.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to wait until the end of the card, as there are mid-priced horses I like in each of the last two races. I’ll put $5 to win and place on both #10 J.S. CHOICE (6-1, Race 9) and #6 NEW YORK’S FINEST (9/2, Race 10). I’ll also play a straight $5 double singling both horses. If one wins, we’ll likely squeak out a profit. If both win, it will be a very good day for this section!

TOTAL WAGERED: $25

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Generous Kitten, Race 7
Longshot: J.S. Choice, Race 9

R1

Terra Promessa
Paid Up Subscriber
Apologynotaccepted

TERRA PROMESSA: Figures to be the main speed in a Grade 3 that has inexplicably only drawn a three-horse field. The shorter fields are, the better early speed tends to be, and this one’s got plenty of quality; PAID UP SUBSCRIBER: Gave Songbird a challenge last time out in the Ogden Phipps, but this one may be better around one turn. Her lone two-turn victory of note was over a subpar field in the 2016 Fleur de Lis, and she may be outsprinted by her two rivals here early; APOLOGYNOTACCEPTED: Has improved with age and earned her first graded stakes placing last time out, but her lone race here was a complete dud.

R2

Gotachancetodance
Frozen Hannah
Bargaining Table

GOTACHANCETODANCE: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops in for a tag for the first time after chasing better horses for most of her career. Her back class could carry her a long way; FROZEN HANNAH: Has won two of her last three starts and was third in a listed stakes race two back. She was second here twice last summer and hasn’t run a bad race on turf; BARGAINING TABLE: Has won two in a row and will be well-supported at the windows. It’s tough to argue with her recent form, but most of her best races have come going one turn, and this race came up pretty salty for the level. DIRT SELECTIONS: SERVIS ENTRY, ENDURING ERIN, FROZEN HANNAH.

R3

Augie’s Coming
Enduring Honor
Dunk a Din

AUGIE’S COMING: Steps up in class after a runaway win in his first start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. He’ll likely be prominent early, and that could mean a perfect trip in a race I found very difficult to decipher; ENDURING HONOR: Rolled two back at Churchill and just missed last out in Indiana. His flexibility is a plus, and he’ll be a major player if he can bring his Midwestern form to Saratoga; DUNK A DIN: Takes a big drop in class for a barn that must be respected. His back class is substantial, but the two duds over this surface in the past present concerns.

R4

Axtell
Bookman
Heldatgunpoint

AXTELL: Is an ultra-consistent turf sprinter that shouldn’t be hurt by the added sixteenth he gets today. There should be plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick; BOOKMAN: Has yet to run a bad race sprinting and should be prominent early. Joe Sharp is, well, sharp with new acquisitions; HELDATGUNPOINT: Had a nightmare trip here Wednesday and is run right back, which seems like a sign of confidence. He was second in a stakes race two back, and we might get a bit of a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: BOOKMAN, JUNKET, SIX SCHILLINGS.

R5

Scary Not Scared
Memorial Drive
Party Club

SCARY NOT SCARED: Is the latest first-time starter with strong works from this barn, which is prominent in Maryland and has made its presence felt up here. This one fetched $350k at auction, and she’ll be dangerous if she runs to her worktab; MEMORIAL DRIVE: Is another with a strong series of drills ahead of her unveiling. She’s bred to be a good one and traces back to Alabama winner Runup the Colors, her second dam; PARTY CLUB: Closed at first asking earlier this month at Ellis Park. That’s not easy to do, and she boasts a series of zippy works ahead of her second start.

R6

Focus Group
Im the Captain Now
All About Voodoo

FOCUS GROUP: Ran into Oscar Performance in his debut last summer and likely needed his 2017 debut last out. That race has produced several next-out winners, and this one’s pedigree suggests he’ll embrace this marathon route; IM THE CAPTAIN NOW: Is one of only a few in here with experience going this far. He was third behind a next-out winner when last seen downstate, and this barn has racked up a few winners here of late; ALL ABOUT VOODOO: Encountered some traffic trouble when a close-up fourth in his debut. The distance is a lot to ask of a second-time starter, but if he’s anywhere close to as talented as his dam, Voodoo Dancer, he could be tough today. DIRT SELECTIONS: IM THE CAPTAIN NOW, STRONG SIDE, BUSHMILL’S LEGEND.

R7

Generous Kitten
War Bond
Indebted

GENEROUS KITTEN: Takes a massive class drop, and anywhere close to his best should top this field fairly easily. He was 5-1 in a Grade 3 last time out, and unlike many others here, there’s plenty to suggest the distance won’t be a problem; WAR BOND: Is a longshot play underneath. He takes a step up in class, but was very close to a scorching pace last time out and still hung on for a piece of it. He’s in capable hands with jockey Jose Ortiz, and he could spice up the exotics; INDEBTED: Is a consistent sort with 12 in-the-money finishes in 19 career starts, and he takes a slight drop in class in his first start for Joe Sharp. DIRT SELECTIONS: MILLS, FOR GREATER GLORY, MARRIAGE FEVER.

R8

Syndergaard
Cause for Surprise
Saratoga Giro

SYNDERGAARD: Ran his eyeballs out in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne when second behind Practical Joke, and it may be time to wonder if that race left a lasting impact. However, he’s been running against stakes competition since breaking his maiden, so if ever there’s a time for him to wake up, it’s in an allowance like this; CAUSE FOR SURPRISE: Has won two of his last three, and he and the runner-up were well clear of the rest of the field in his last outing. He’d benefit from someone hooking my top pick into an early speed duel; SARATOGA GIRO: Makes his first start since March for prominent Finger Lakes connections. The local rider coming here for the mount is often a good sign with such shippers, and he’s a contender if he’s ready to run.

R9

Dogtown (MTO)
J.S. Choice
Lucullan

J.S. CHOICE: Likely needed the race last time out, and it came up very tough. That race’s winner won a stakes at next asking, and the runner-up has since come back to win as well. 6-1 would be a heck of a price on a horse with considerable talent; LUCULLAN: Took to the turf well last time out, breaking his maiden in swift fashion. Two turns is a question mark, but given the pedigree, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue; KANTUNE: Has won two of his last three in front-running fashion and would benefit from getting an easy lead. If such a scenario materializes, he may be tough to run down. DIRT SELECTIONS: DOGTOWN, PLANET TRAILBLAZER, RACE ME HOME.

R10

Saratoga Charlie (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Tu Exageres

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Crushed maidens at this route two back and may have needed his last start, which came off a long layoff. He drops in class here, and has been gelded since his last outing; TU EXAGERES: Was the beneficiary of a DQ last time out at Gulfstream, but hasn’t run a bad race in three tries. This barn has been a bit cold to start the meet, but this one’s a contender here; PIONEER SPIRIT: Exits a swiftly-run race at Monmouth and won a key maiden race two back. The presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a major plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: SARATOGA CHARLIE, PIONEER SPIRIT, SPEEDY SLEW.