BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

Today’s sixth race is for 2-year-olds, and your morning line favorite is Pop Idol. Pop Idol is a daughter of the mare Unspurned, which rang a bell with me for reasons I couldn’t figure out. That changed when Joe Nevills, one of my best friends, got in touch in a tone I can only describe as “planet-wrecking rage” when I didn’t back her in that event.

Unspurned is the dam of an off-track thoroughbred owned by Joe and his wife, several-time Eclipse winner Natalie Voss. Formerly named Underscore, he’s now named Blueberry, and he and Natalie compete in equestrian competitions. To say Joe and Natalie have a rooting interest in this race would be putting it mildly!

The bigger, more serious lesson here: Aftercare is vital. Thoroughbreds only race for a very short part of their lives, and not all of them go on to breeding careers as stallions and broodmares. There are a number of organizations (New Vocations, the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, and Racing For Home, to name three) that do outstanding work in that space, and their efforts are definitely worth your support.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: The fourth race got moved off the turf, so all of my action was cancelled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My best bet of the day is in the ninth of 10 races, which makes this an ideal time to play the Grand Slam. I’ll have a $1 ticket starting in the sixth that goes as follows: 1,7,9 with 2,5,6 with 8,9 with 3. Furthermore, I’ll have a $12 win bet on that single, #3 STRICTLY TABOO. For more on these races, check out this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne” below!

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Strictly Taboo, Race 9
Longshot: Diamond Status, Race 10

R1

Route Sensation
Blakely’s Wish
Endless Vow

#2 ROUTE SENSATION (5/2): Got plenty of education in her debut, when she blew the break, rushed into a stalking position, and faded to third. Blinkers go on at second asking, and the two-back work over this track makes me think she’s sitting on an improved effort; #1 BLAKELY’S WISH (2-1): Debuts for a high-percentage barn and is bred to be precocious. She’s kin to both Firenze Fire and Andiamo a Firenze, who both showed talent early, and my only question is whether or not the form she’s flashed in works at Monmouth will travel north; #4 ENDLESS VOW (4-1): Is a first-time starter for a barn whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, there’s one massive work on her tab that stands out, and that’s enough to make me wonder if she’s ready to run.

R2

Protective (MTO)
Passive Management
Stop the Press

#6 PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (7/5): Had no pace to chase in his unveiling, and while he won’t offer a ton of value, he hits me as the most likely winner. Any sort of step forward will make him a handful, especially if he gets any speed in front of him, at all, whatsoever; #1 STOP THE PRESS (6-1): Was disappointing in two starts at Aqueduct, but perhaps he just doesn’t like that turf course. His form earlier this year at Keeneland and Tampa was fine, and him running back to those races isn’t impossible; #5 BADGE OF WAR (8-1): Steps up in class here but gets the services of Frankie Dettori and seems to be improving. He showed some early zip last time out, and I’m expecting him to be forwardly-placed in this spot.

R3

Rotknee
Light Man
Looms Boldly

#5 ROTKNEE (8/5): Is battle-tested and drops back into state-bred company for this event after finishing fourth in the Grade 2 True North. He’s 3-for-3 at this level dating back to October, and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a notable one; #3 LIGHT MAN (9/2): Has done very little wrong to this point in his career, with four wins and a second in five starts. This is his stakes debut for a smaller barn that’s enjoyed plenty of success to this point in the summer; #6 LOOMS BOLDLY (3-1): Was a hard-luck second here in June and earned a massive speed figure that day. That track was very, very fast that day, though, and while he’s shown an abundance of early zip before, I think banking on a repeat of his last-out performance may be asking too much.

R4

Eighty West
Storm the Streets
Friday Surprise

#1 EIGHTY WEST (5/2): Debuted with a decent second at Churchill against open company, and now runs against restricted maidens at second asking. Between the class drop and the experience he gained last time out, there’s plenty to like; #6 STORM THE STREETS (8-1): Dueled early in his debut before fading badly in the stretch, but that day’s winner is a nice horse and this barn’s first-time starters on dirt aren’t usually fully-cranked. Luis Saez stays on, and he shouldn’t have to go very fast early to make the lead; #4 FRIDAY SURPRISE (7/5): Rallied to finish a close-up second in his debut at Parx, but I simply cannot endorse him at his likely short price. Parx form doesn’t always travel, and while it’s impressive that he closed at first asking, I’m not sure what he ran against. This may be a tougher spot, and he may need to improve, which makes that morning line price an underlay.

R5

Luna Moth (MTO)
Avenue Niel
Lady Emily Kathryn

#3 AVENUE NIEL (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race they’ve tried to card two or three different times. She makes her 2024 debut in this spot and was last seen in an optional claimer that produced Chili Flag, one of the country’s top turf distaffers. If she’s ready to run, she could pop at a bit of a price; #4 LADY EMILY KATHRYN (15-1): Merits a look at bonkers odds as one of the few that figure to go early. Toss the two Churchill Downs turf races, and her form looks miles better. We’ve seen those shippers run well a lot so far at this stand; #1 ASPEN GROVE (1-1): Has back form that would bury this bunch, but I have my doubts. That win in last year’s Grade 1 Belmont Oaks was for another trainer, and while she’s been competitive against tough horses lately, she’s a deep closer that may need a lot to go right.

R6

Rematch
Mean Eileen
Moonlight Promises

#1 REMATCH (3-1): Debuts for Shug McGaughey and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., which may be a clue she’s well-meant. This daughter of The Factor is out of a very dam that’s produced 10 winners, including Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Mani Bhaven; #9 MEAN EILEEN (9/2): Is another debutante with a strong bottom-side pedigree. Her second dam is Grade 1-winning turfer Rutherienne, and this barn’s first-out turf horses have shown they can fire right away; #7 MOONLIGHT PROMISES (8-1): Debuted in an off-the-turf race downstate, where she ran second behind a much-the-best winner that repeated at next asking. Her pedigree says turf is what she wants. She gets that here and could take advantage of an experience edge she has over most of this bunch.

R7

Bourbon Serengeti
Cararra
I’m Thinking

#6 BOURBON SERENGETI (3-1): Drops in for a tag for the first time and is eligible to improve second off a six-month layoff for Brad Cox. The stretchout to this distance is a concern, but her pedigree says she should love this route, and it’s not like there are any world-beaters in here; #5 CARARRA (6-1): Sure looks like the main speed in here, and had to run in a completely different way last time out at Churchill. I’m expecting her to dictate terms from the jump, and that’s often a fantastic trip out of the Wilson chute; #2 I’M THINKING (5/2): Is another dropping in for a tag and may be favored after a second-place finish downstate going shorter. Her one-mile effort two starts back wasn’t great, but that was in just her second career start, so perhaps forgiving that clunker is the right move.

R8

Radical Right
Lost in Rome
Lark’s Mischief

#9 RADICAL RIGHT (7/2): Makes his first start for Linda Rice and has several efforts from earlier this year that, if repeated, could make his local debut a winning one. He exits an ultra-tough optional claiming event that produced several next-out winners, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip in a race full of early speed; #8 LOST IN ROME (8-1): Seems like this race’s lone true closer and would benefit from a pace meltdown. He’s an established horse at this level, and jockey Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in this colony at the moment; #5 LARK’S MISCHIEF (5/2): Has shown speed against better and drops into open claiming company for the first time since November. That start was a wire-to-wire score at Churchill, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hopping aboard for Mike Maker tends to command attention.

R9

Strictly Taboo
Bank On Anna (MTO)
Weekend Rags

#3 STRICTLY TABOO (5/2): Has looked like a new horse this season, as she’s gone 2-for-2 in local starts at this route. Some horses that like this 5 1/2-furlong turf trip truly relish it, and while the margins of victory look fairly unimpressive, she was much the best in both outings; #5 WEEKEND RAGS (5-1): Prevailed in a first-level allowance two back before finishing second in an off-the-turf event earlier this summer. Turf is what she wants, and while her one local start was unimpressive, Flavien Prat picks up the mount, and that’s impossible to ignore; #1 FANCYPANTS JULIANA (6-1): Won for the first time in more than a year last time out, when she closed with a rush to clear her first-level allowance condition. Closers on the rail tend to need a lot to go right, but she’s never been worse than third in three local starts.

R10

Oh My Mia (MTO)
Diamond Status
Turf Rocket

#1 DIAMOND STATUS (10-1): Is a reluctant top pick in a Thursday finale where I lack a strong opinion. At a minimum, though, this mare looks like the main speed on the inner turf, which can be a dangerous combination. She could lead them quite a long way at a price, and she could prove tough to run down if she gets comfortable; #3 TURF ROCKET (4-1): Exits a fourth-place finish behind a runner that’s since come back to win again and gets a rider switch to Junior Alvarado. Her connections saw fit to run her against She Feels Pretty in the Hilltop Stakes earlier this year, so they’ve clearly been high on her, and she’s got some potential to improve; #7 SIZZLE (6-1): Is lightly-raced and ships up from Florida for a small barn that’s shown it can win races in bunches. She was a fast-closing third going a bit shorter last time out, and while whether or not her form will travel up from Gulfstream is anyone’s guess, Flavien Prat sees fit to ride and the two-back work across the street was far from bad.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

My fiancee doesn’t like it when I say this, but she’s a saint. She’s a fifth-grade teacher at a public elementary school near Oakland, which means that, yes, she has to deal with 30 10-year-olds every day, then deal with me.

I say this because, as the school year starts, she’s in need of some help and has started a Donors Choose project. I will always gladly share word of any drives or efforts she’s got going on, especially during the one time of year where my content reaches a pretty wide audience.

You can donate by clicking this link. If you’ve hit for a nice chunk of change recently and are looking for a good cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Said fiancee got a show at a suburban ice cream shop, where we watched May Day Ready and Frankie Dettori take the seventh at odds of 25-1 (my enthusiastic response, she jokes, means we’re now banned from the property). A $20 win bet and $5 exacta both cashed, returning $1,153.75 on a $36 investment. I’m pretty sure that’s a Pink Sheet bankroll record.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the fourth, where I’m against #5 UNIT ECONOMICS and will bet against the favorite accordingly. First, I’ll play $4 exactas using #2 VICTORS VALIANT and #6 BARRAGE on top of those two, #1 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA, and Unit Economics. I’ll box my top two horses in additional $2 exactas, and those two will finish off a $2 Pick Three that starts in the second. That ticket goes as follows: 8 with 1,2,3 with 2,6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Neuschwanstein, Race 7
Longshot: Victors Valiant, Race 4

R1

Zarak the Brave
Kiyomori
Hold Hard

#2 ZARAK THE BRAVE (1-1): Depending on which PP’s you use, you may not see his recent resume. Brisnet and TwinSpires do not show his races from 2023 and 2024, which include a fourth-place finish at Cheltenham against some top-tier steeplechase horses in England. Anything close to his European form would make him a handful in the Jonathan Kiser, assuming they finally get to run it Wednesday after several postponements; #3 KIYOMORI (4-1): Turned a corner late last year and exits a third-place finish in a similar-level stakes race in his 2024 debut. Unlike many others in here, he’s shown he can win without Lasix, and the flexible running style also helps; #1 HOLD HARD (5-1): Has won two in a row and sure looks like a horse hitting peak form as a 5-year-old. The spot he exits is a salty one, as several horses that finished behind him came back to win at next asking.

R2

Will Not Be Swayed
Tiz Purple
Royal Princess

#8 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (8/5): Did everything but win last time, when she fell a neck short to a promising filly and finished 14 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. She may not need to move forward at all to beat these, and if she does take a step forward, look out; #7 TIZ PURPLE (4-1): Ships up from Monmouth after running a solid second in her unveiling. She made up some ground late, which isn’t easy to do in a five-furlong race, and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione is notable; #6 ROYAL PRINCESS (6-1): Debuts for a barn connecting with 22% of first-time starters, and she’s posted some solid drills at Laurel ahead of her unveiling. Her female family’s a pretty classy one, and she could be live in her debut at a bit of a price.

R3

Dillinger
Own the Field
Master of Arms

#3 DILLINGER (6-1): Blew the doors off a field of claimers last time out, when he drew away powerfully to win by more than eight lengths. On paper, this is a step up, but it’s far from the strongest starter allowance we’ll see at the meet, and it sure seems like he loves it here; #1 OWN THE FIELD (2-1): Has been competitive here twice this summer and cuts back to seven furlongs after a race out of the chute where he didn’t save any ground. That’s not the desired trip at that route, and while he hasn’t won in a while, he’s got potential to move forward and he’s not a terrible favorite; #2 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in after a few unsuccessful tries at Churchill and has shown plenty of early zip in the past. I’m not convinced he wants seven furlongs, but he should be forwardly-placed and may be the one they have to catch.

R4

Classic Legacy (MTO)
Victors Valiant
Barrage

#2 VICTORS VALIANT (8-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in three starts on this circuit and was a good second last time out in a race that hits me as a stronger one than this heat. His two-back win here was a good one, and he retains the services of top jock Flavien Prat (side note: Go Blue!); #6 BARRAGE (5-1): Goes back to Ray Handal’s barn after a downstate effort that was too bad to be true. He’s shown plenty of early zip, which is a great thing to have on the inner turf, and he’s run very well over this turf course in the past; #5 UNIT ECONOMICS (6/5): Merits respect based on the connections, but while he’s got a shot, the likely price hits me as a considerably underlay. He’s had some gate issues in the past, and while his turn of foot is a good one, this field is nothing to sneeze at. At his price, I’ll try to beat him.

R5

All That Magic
Sunday Shoes
Speedy Traveler

#2 ALL THAT MAGIC (5/2): Has ample back class and gets Lasix dropping back into the allowance/optional claiming ranks. She’s clearly a far better horse with that in her system, and a return to her 2023 form (which helped her win six times that year) would make her the one to beat; #1 SUNDAY SHOES (5-1): Has won a stakes race on synthetic and exits a failed try in the Grade 3 Whimsical at Woodbine. Her two-back turf drill was very sharp, and the Wesley Ward/Flavien Prat combination isn’t one to ignore; #6 SPEEDY TRAVELER (6-1): Won three in a row at Fair Grounds earlier this year and is set to try turf for the first time. There’s a chance she’s the speed of the speed, and honestly, I partially need to use her just in case this race comes off the grass.

R6

Moonlit Weekend
Grammy Girl
La Vita Sofia

#1 MOONLIT WEEKEND (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I truly lack a strong opinion. She draws favorably in this race out of the Wilson chute, though, and the significant rider change to Jose Ortiz should move her forward; too; #8 GRAMMY GIRL (4-1): Takes a significant drop after chasing $50,000 claimers downstate last time out. That race’s distance may have been a bit short for her, and while the outside draw isn’t ideal, she could certainly improve getting back to a longer trip against weaker competition; #4 LA VITA SOFIA (9/2): Hasn’t won in a while, but is another dropping in class, and she cuts back from a two-turn route against starter allowance foes. Her lone career win came at this distance, and the Rudy Rodriguez barn is starting to heat up after a rough start to the meet.

R7

Neuschwanstein
Unclecharliesgift
Stormquist

#11 NEUSCHWANSTEIN (3-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start off a five-month break and ships up to run here for a tag. Toss the race right before the layoff, and his form looks considerably better. Add in the potential to improve second off the bench, and he looks pretty imposing; #8 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT (8-1): Has had gate issues, but responded to the drop last time out by rallying to be third behind Dillinger (who I like a lot earlier in the day). I worry he’ll have too much to do late, but in a race with a fair amount of cheap speed, I do think he’ll get the setup he wants; #4 STORMQUIST (10-1): Makes his first start off the claim after setting a very, very fast pace for the level last time out. Several of his early-2024 efforts were pretty sharp, and he’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, which could prove helpful.

R8

Bustin Bay
Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Sterling Silver

#5 BUSTIN BAY (8-1): Stretches back out to a route in the Johnstone Mile after going way too short last time out. She’s an honest, hard-trying mare who won’t have an issue with this distance, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly a plus; #3 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Seems like the main speed in here, which is always dangerous coming out of the Wilson chute. She’s won four of her last five starts, with the lone misfire being a turf experiment, and if she gets comfortable early, she could prove tough to catch; #2 STERLING SILVER (7/5): Certainly has plenty of back class, but I have serious doubts (especially at her likely short price). There’s nothing saying she wants to go a mile, she may need far more pace than she’s likely to get, and there’s also a chance we may have seen the best of her at this point.

R9

Bearings (MTO)
St. Elias entry
Riverwalk

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (1-1): I prefer #1A ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT, who looks every bit like the one to beat in the Wednesday finale. He’s been competitive against maiden special weight foes at multiple tracks, and this field seems like a weak one for the maiden claiming level; #6 RIVERWALK (4-1): Probably never had a chance last time out, when he raced very wide throughout at Aqueduct. His draw is a bit better here, and he’s a contender if he can run back to a few of his Gulfstream races from earlier this season; #2 PUJOL (15-1): Was third in a similar race early in the meet and was very, very far behind early on in that event. His two Saratoga races are easily the best ones he’s ever run, and I think he’s got a shot to hit the board at a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $930.25

A few days after the spat between NYRA and Churchill Downs, bettors once again took it on the chin Saturday. Two stakes races being cancelled meant multi-race exotics sequences with those races were cancelled, too, and highly-publicized two-day wagers, per rules and regulations, had multiple legs pay out to “ALL,” which penalized anyone who had a strong opinion and bet accordingly.

NYRA had to do something, especially after the events of a year ago (when multiple fatalities occurred over wet turf courses). I don’t begrudge them for moving races and attempting to preserve them, rather than moving everything to the dirt or running on the turf and letting the chips fall where they may. There were no good options, just ones that stunk less than others.

However, the frustrations of bettors were loud and completely understandable. Rain was in the forecast several days out, yet nothing was communicated until an hour before Saturday’s first race. This looked really bad, and there had to have been a better way to do this. That’s a refrain that’s becoming more and more common every time racing is faced with a challenge and deals with it in a way that gives the betting public the short end of the stick.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Antietam was nowhere close to Ferocious, who’s probably the best 2-year-old we’ve seen to this point in the meet. After cancellations, I dropped $12.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m hoping we stay on the turf, because there’s a first-time starter I like quite a bit in the seventh. That’s #8 MAY DAY READY, who hits me as a big overlay at or near the 12-1 morning line price. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, as well as $5 exactas above #4 LOVE TEMPO and #9 BALLERINA D’ORO and $3 exactas with her below those horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: White Sands, Race 9
Longshot: May Day Ready, Race 7

R1

Limes Don’t Lie
Ragtime
First Class Lady

#1 LIMES DON’T LIE (2-1): Is a tepid top pick in what looks like a loaded 2-year-old maiden event. She fetched $190,000 at auction and has been working very well for Chad Brown, who can certainly get a first-time starter ready to go; #5 RAGTIME (9/2): Is a Godolphin homebred trained by Bill Mott, which indicates she may want more time or more distance. However, her bottom-side pedigree is outstanding, and she’s another that’s been training very, very well; #3 FIRST CLASS LADY (5/2): Sold for $900,000 as a yearling last year, and for good reason. Her dam is kin to globe-trotting sprinter Lady Aurelia, and while the recent works have been a touch slow, it wouldn’t be shocking if she’s precocious.

R2

Next
Masqueparade
Time for Trouble

#5 NEXT (1/9): It’s not often you see a 1/9 morning line favorite, but this one is worthy of that designation. He’s clearly the best dirt marathoner in the country, and he faces a short field of runners in the Birdstone, a few of which he’s thumped in the past; #2 MASQUEPARADE (6-1): Is one of those horses that’s chased Next several times, but he’s got talent and likes Saratoga. He was a close-up third two back in the Grade 2 Suburban, where he was beaten less than a length; #4 TIME FOR TROUBLE (8-1): Gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat for this one and was fourth in the Suburban behind my second choice. The pedigree says he wants to run all day, and honestly, someone has to finish third in what seems like a one-horse race.

R3

Colloquy
Higher Quality
Kahala

#6 COLLOQUY (2-1): Isn’t an easy price to stomach, but looks like a closer in a race otherwise full of early speed. He’s won at this route before and exits an optional claimer that, despite being against New York-breds, was probably a much better group than this one; #4 HIGHER QUALITY (4-1): Has stepped forward since a trainer switch earlier this year and exits a third-place finish in a similar spot. That day’s winner got comfortable early and never stopped, and this is another that would benefit from a meltdown; #2 KAHALA (8-1): Merits a look at a price shipping in from Kentucky for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s got some early speed, but his ideal trip is a stalking one, and that could give him first run turning for home.

R4

Bearings (MTO)
Kick a Buck
Sugar Hook

#8 KICK A BUCK (8/5): Drops in for a tag for the first time against what is, to be kind, a pretty uninspiring group. His race last time out was a dud, but anything close to his two or three-back efforts would make him a handful; #3 SUGAR HOOK (6-1): Goes back to the turf and could benefit from being a speed horse in a race otherwise light on early zip. His last-out effort is a toss, since it was rained onto the main track, and he’s got some two-turn form at Fair Grounds and Churchill that isn’t terrible; #11 JOHN THE BAPTIST (8-1): Showed some late interest in his first start for a tag last time out. His debut in April at Tampa wasn’t a bad effort, either, and I think he’s got a shot if he can work out a trip from a tricky outside post.

R5

Rice entry (MTO)
In Our Time
Linarite

#6 IN OUR TIME (5/2): Takes a drop in class after chasing stakes foes in the Coronation Cup last month. She faces older here, but she does so in a race that’s drawn a bunch of runners that have been at this level a while without breaking through, and the trainer switch to Saffie Joseph is a big one; #7 LINARITE (10-1): Always comes running late and was a close-up second against state-breds not long ago. She hasn’t won in a long time, but she’s also never missed the board in three prior tries at this route; #2 U SHOULD B DANCING (8-1): Is another closer that hasn’t found the winner’s circle in a while, but she was second here last time out in a race that’s already produced a next-out winner. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and at a minimum, we know she likes it here.

R6

Twirling Lulu
Boston’s Phinest
Scythian

#4 TWIRLING LULU (7/2): Breaks a stretch of morning line favorites I’m not proud of, but hey, if a card looks chalky, I can’t lie and tell you otherwise. This filly has been working well for Bruce Levine, who can win with first-time starters, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who doesn’t ride for this barn much, could be a clue; #3 BOSTON’S PHINEST (3-1): Sold for $190,000, a big sum considering sire Honest Mischief’s $6,500 stud fee. Her dam has produced two winners from as many foals to race, and there are some solid gate drills on her tab; #6 SCYTHIAN (5-1): Debuts for Bill Mott and has a very, very fast work a few drills ago. Everything about her pedigree says she’ll want more ground, but there’s also a chance she’s talented enough to win going short on pure ability alone.

R7

May Day Ready
Ballerina d’Oro
Love Tempo

#8 MAY DAY READY (12-1): Sold for $325,000 earlier this year, has the pedigree to be a real runner, and boasts a morning line price that definitely catches my attention. She’s by Tapit, out of a Group 1-placed turf horse, and attracts Frankie Dettori, who’s never ridden for this small outfit before; #9 BALLERINA D’ORO (5/2): Is another bred in the purple and debuts for Chad Brown going long on the turf, which will always attract money. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is out of a Tapit mare, and while the works are a bit slow, that’s an all-distance pedigree that may be more handy in the afternoon than in the morning; #4 LOVE TEMPO (3-1): Has an experience edge over most of these and was last seen running a fast-closing third at Ellis Park. Ellis Park form doesn’t always travel, but she gets a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione, who rides a ton for this barn, and she’s certainly eligible to improve at second asking.

R8

Chattalot
Top Gunner
Cape Trafalgar

#8 CHATTALOT (5-1): Looks like the main speed in a sprint that seems fairly light on it, and while this one hasn’t won in a while, this seems like an ideal race shape. His three 2024 starts have all been sharp, and I don’t think he’ll have to run any :44 and change half-miles to make the lead in this spot, which could really help him; #3 TOP GUNNER (6-1): Steps up in class after winning a $50,000 claiming event a few weeks ago. That was his first start for an astute barn, though, so he was eligible to turn things around after a long few years. If he’s on his way back to the form that saw him compete in some big spots back in 2022, his price is an overlay; #5 CAPE TRAFALGAR (4-1): Is one of two Saffie Joseph-trained contenders in here, and this is the one I prefer. He exits a win at Gulfstream and ran well here last year when second behind a stakes-quality runner.

R9

White Sands
Italian Soiree
The Queens M G

#8 WHITE SANDS (3-1): Has yet to be tested in two outings, which she’s won by a combined total of more than 22 lengths. The Grade 3 Adirondack is certainly a class test, but her recent works at Keeneland are sharp and Frankie Dettori hops aboard for Wesley Ward; #2 ITALIAN SOIREE (9/2): Impressed me in her debut, when she stalked, pounced, and drew away pretty easily. 2-year-olds don’t often rate at first asking, but she ran professionally for a trainer whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, which hints that she’s got a lot of talent; #9 THE QUEENS M G (7/2): Pulled off a 44-1 shocker in the Schuylerville, which came after a total dud in the Astoria two back. If we get the version of her we saw last time out, she’s got a shot, but there are some talented runners in here, and while 44-1 was absurd in hindsight, that may mean an overcorrection in the marketplace this time around.

R10

Andy Cant (MTO)
Skellig Island
Modica

#5 SKELLIG ISLAND (10-1): Takes a big drop in class in the Sunday finale off of a race that seems too bad to be true. His two-back effort here against starter allowance foes was a solid one, and the presence of Flavien Prat inspires some confidence at a bit of a price; #9 MODICA (6-1): Ships up from Florida, but has run reasonably well over other turf courses and would benefit from a battle up front. The last-out bullet drill downstate hints that he’s doing pretty well; #10 NOSTALGIC ONE (5-1): Responded to the drop in class with a win in his 2024 debut, which came off a very long break. This is his first try against winners, but it’s also his second start off the bench for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., so there’s plenty to like.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $942.25

Whitney Day is upon us, and it’s one of my favorite cards of the year. I remember going to the track as a kid the year Victory Gallop and Behrens threw it down (given all the photos he lost, if Behrens’s nose was about three inches bigger, he’d be a Hall of Famer). Among other renewals, I was also in attendance for Lawyer Ron’s romp, where he set a track record that stands to this day.

In addition to all of the stakes races, though, you’ll want to pay attention to several 2-year-old maiden races on the undercard. There are some genuine blue-chip prospects in these fields, and I think we may see a runner or two from these events in races like the Spinaway and Hopeful near the end of the meet. In fact, I like one of them enough to funnel my bankroll action through them!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My bankroll play made a lot more financial sense before the scratch of Stellify made Two Sharp an overwhelming favorite in the opener. She won, but I was expecting a price several times higher than what she went off at, so my win bet paid next to nothing. In addition, exacta and double plays fizzled, and I dropped $12.50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Cards don’t get much better than this, and I’m focusing on the middle portion of it. I’ll have a $12 win bet on #9 ANTIETAM in the sixth, and he’s a single in $5 doubles that end with #4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ and #6 CARSON’S RUN in the seventh (the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby). Finally, I’ll use all of those horses in a $2 Pick Three ending in the eighth (the Grade 1 Test) with #1 EMERY and #6 BRIGHTWORK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Antietam, Race 6
Longshot: Carson’s Run, Race 7

R1

Reach for the Rose
Assertiveness
Asbury Park

#4 REACH FOR THE ROSE (3-1): Debuted with a good second in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream Park, which awards a fees-paid trip to Royal Ascot to the winner. The pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be a problem, and this barn excels with both second-time starters and first-time routers; #8 ASSERTIVENESS (7/2): Is regally-bred, being by Into Mischief and out of top-class turf mare Isabella Sings. This is what she’s bred to do, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #9 ASBURY PARK (9/2): Sold for $318,000 overseas last year and is another bred up and down to be a strong turf horse. This son of Frankel has a steady string of drills for Chad Brown and merits respect despite a tough outside draw on the inner turf.

R2

Probability
Friend Ofthe Devil
King’s Leap

#3 PROBABILITY (5/2): Is one of several Todd Pletcher-trained contenders on a Saturday undercard laden with 2-year-old races. This son of Improbable hammered for $300,000 last year, and all three prior foals out of the Curlin mare Perazzi are multiple winners; #8 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (10-1): Sold for $145,000 despite a pretty modest pedigree and has been working well for a barn that doesn’t traditionally ask much of young horses. The last-out bullet drill, in particular, jumps off the page, and it’s noteworthy to see Castellano hop aboard when he probably had a few options; #9 KING’S LEAP (6-1): Ran well in his debut, when he was third behind a much-the-best winner. He made up some ground late that day and has a right to improve at second asking.

R3

Deck of Cards
Cinderella’s Cause
Movie Moxy

#1 DECK OF CARDS (2-1): Has reeled off five consecutive wins, with one of them coming in runaway fashion here a few weeks ago. She stretches out to a mile, which is sometimes a problem, but she’s run well enough going two turns that I don’t think the Wilson chute will pose any issues; #5 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (6-1): Has hit the board in each of her last six starts and cuts back after running second going two turns last month. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for Linda Rice, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace; #8 MOVIE MOXY (9/2): Has run second in a pair of stakes races this season and figures to be the more-bet Linda Rice trainee. Her lack of a win in over a year is certainly a problem, but she does have excuses given her terrible start at this route just a week ago.

R4

Call Her Bluff (MTO)
Midnight Concerto
Bossy Jeans

#10 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (3-1): Came off the bench running last time out, when she rallied from last to finish a fast-closing third in her turf debut. She gets Lasix for the first time and should have plenty of speed to run at. Any sort of move forward makes her the one to beat; #6 BOSSY JEANS (6-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a wire-to-wire score and faces winners for the first time. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Mike Maker, and she figures to be prominent early given her successful front-running trip on the Fourth of July; #2 DUSK (8-1): Stretches out to two turns but has a pedigree that says she should handle it. She had some trouble last time out at Aqueduct, but could have enough tactical speed to work out a solid trip beneath Manny Franco.

R5

Classicist
Sea Vista
Uncaged

#6 CLASSICIST (3-1): Has been working very well ahead of his unveiling in what looks like a loaded maiden race for 2-year-olds. He’s kin to Grade 2 winner Jouster, and second dam Storm Flag Flying represents one of the most productive female lines (third dam My Flag, fourth dam Personal Ensign) in recent racing history; #7 SEA VISTA (5/2): Debuts for Brad Cox, and this Godolphin homebred is another bred in the purple. His dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old and has produced, among others, stakes winners Nash and Spa City; #5 UNCAGED (6-1): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher, who also trains my top pick. He sold for $450,000 as a yearling and has a right to be a runner. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his pedigree hints that he wants way longer than today’s six-furlong distance.

R6

Antietam
El Prestigio
Praetor

#9 ANTIETAM (4-1): Is yet another promising Todd Pletcher trainee with a precocious, win-early pedigree. He’s kin to European champion 2-year-old Air Force Blue, his second dam is a full sister to American champion 2-year-old filly Flanders, and the work tab features several strong drills; #5 EL PRESTIGIO (8-1): Is the only one in here with any experience, and he probably lost all chance with his antics at the gate and a slow start. I love the Steve Asmussen work pattern of a strong two-back drill followed by a maintenance move, and this one has every right to move forward; #4 PRAETOR (5/2): Hammered for $725,000 at Keeneland last year and is bred to be any kind. He’s by Into Mischief, out of multiple graded stakes winner Curlin’s Approval, and has flashed talent in the mornings for trainer Chad Brown.

R7

Diego Velazquez
Carson’s Run
Legend of Time

#4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (2-1): Ships across the Atlantic for the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, which, oddly, may be a class drop for this Aidan O’Brien trainee. He most recently crushed older horses in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, and I don’t think he faces any 3-year-old monsters here; #6 CARSON’S RUN (8-1): Has a record that looks far better if you toss the races before and after his long layoff. Do that, and you’re left with a horse that has three wins in four starts and should be rolling late beneath red-hot rider Dylan Davis at a bit of a price; #3 LEGEND OF TIME (7/2): Was a beaten 3/2 favorite in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last time out, where he stalked a slow pace and never really kicked on. I think they may go a bit faster here, which could help him, and the presence of William Buick is always a plus.

R8

Emery
Brightwork
Ways and Means

#1 EMERY (5/2): Has won four of five career starts and is on a three-race win streak coming into the Grade 1 Test. One of those wins was an impressive score at this distance two back at Churchill Downs, and her flexible running style could give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #6 BRIGHTWORK (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but she’s been working very well here and she cuts back to a distance she’s already won a Grade 1 at. Furthermore, that win came here, in the Grade 1 Spinaway, where she overcame a tough trip to top…; #4 WAYS AND MEANS (7/5): …who will likely be favored after crushing first-level allowance foes here last month. I do have my doubts, though, largely because she’s found trouble in all five of her career starts to date. Her best effort would make her a player, but she may need such an effort combined with a smooth journey, and that, to me, makes her an underlay at her likely price.

R9

Smokin’ T
More Than Looks
Irish Aces

#8 SMOKIN’ T (6-1): Hasn’t run that well in two starts at Churchill Downs, but Churchill shippers have been running on this turf course, one we know this horse likes. He won last year’s renewal of the Lure Stakes, and given the likely race shape and his ability to make up ground late, I think he’s got a big shot to repeat; #9 MORE THAN LOOKS (2-1): Makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he rallied to be beaten just two lengths. If he’s ready, he’s got a big chance, and this barn does very well bringing horses back off the bench; #4 IRISH ACES (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but boasts plenty of back class and a running style that should make him dangerous. He was a close-up third in a stakes-quality optional claimer last time out, and he’s another that would benefit from a battle up front early on.

R10

Cogburn
Grooms All Bizness
Witty

#6 COGBURN (4/5): Is probably the best turf sprinter in America and looms very large in the Grade 2 Troy, which he won last year. Most recently, he sizzled home in the Grade 1 Jaipur over several of his opponents here, and anything remotely close to that effort would mean the race is for second; #8 GROOMS ALL BIZNESS (8-1): Gets a class test after winning four of his last five starts. He’s ultra-consistent and has shown he can run well without Lasix, which isn’t something that can be said for some of those around him; #10 WITTY (12-1): Chased a pretty slow pace in the Grade 2 Highlander last time out, where he settled for second after a less-than-ideal trip. His best game is when he’s way back and allowed to make one big run, and such a scenario would give him a big chance to hit the board here at a nice price.

R11

Bright Future
National Treasure
First Mission

#9 BRIGHT FUTURE (5-1): Looked beaten in his return to the races at Monmouth Park, but pulled himself together and rallied to take the Grade 3 Salvator Mile. He ran like a horse that needed a race off the bench, and he comes to Saratoga with a 2-for-2 local mark and in position to capitalize on a pretty ideal pace set-up in the Grade 1 Whitney; #3 NATIONAL TREASURE (9/5): Has won two high-profile Grade 1 races this season, including the Grade 1 Met Mile here on Belmont Stakes Day. I think nine furlongs is about all the distance he wants, and he won’t have it easy up front, but he’s a legitimate favorite who could establish himself as a frontrunner for Horse of the Year honors with a win in this spot; #5 FIRST MISSION (9/2): Was a heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, but faded to fourth after sitting what looked like a dream trip on the lead through moderate fractions. A return to his early-2024 form gives him a big chance for a barn that’s sent out plenty of live runners at this stand.

R12

St. Benedicts Prep
Striker Has Dial
Audacious

#7 ST. BENEDICTS PREP (4-1): Comes in off of two very sharp efforts and boasts plenty of early speed in a seven-furlong heat that doesn’t seem loaded with it. She has four top-two finishes in five tries at this distance, and Linda Rice sure seems to have this filly on the right track; #2 STRIKER HAS DIAL (5/2): Ran into Ways and Means two back and was a good second in the Wilton out of the Wilson chute earlier in the meet. She’s never run a bad one in three prior starts, and while she does tackle some older foes here, most of her opponents are fellow 3-year-olds; #5 AUDACIOUS (5-1): Won on debut after stalking a pretty fast pace at this route. Debuting at seven panels isn’t an easy thing to do, but she did a lot right that day and is certainly eligible to move forward at second asking.

R13

Drake’s Passage (MTO)
Mondego
Beuys

#11 MONDEGO (6-1): Cuts back in distance and gets a bit of class relief after finishing sixth against stakes-quality marathoners last time out. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he seems like the main speed in the Saturday finale and could be dangerous if he’s left alone up top; #4 BEUYS (6-1): Was one-paced here last month against a good group and gets reunited with Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him to a heartbreaking near-miss two starts ago downstate. He hasn’t won in a while, but this barn has heated up and the presence of a leading rider hints they mean business; #1 FREEDOM TRAIL (7/2): Makes his first start since November and danced a bunch of big dances a season ago. His recent works are sharp, for sure, and he’s a major player if he’s ready to run, but the layoff is a significant one and I don’t love closers on the rail.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $954.75

In conversation with a friend the other day, I mentioned that the lasting influence of Maximum Security’s 2019 Kentucky Derby disqualification has nothing to do with that race itself. Instead, it spotlighted that racing has no single, solid, concrete answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?”

This was more than five years ago, and nothing has changed in that regard. If you ask that question to racing officials from four different jurisdictions within the United States, it’s possible you get four different answers.

The job of a steward isn’t an easy one. Very few decisions are black and white, and whatever action gets taken is going to tick somebody off. Having said that, the lack of consistency, at times, is baffling and would never be accepted in any other major sport.

What is a foul that merits disqualification? After the events of Thursday’s seventh race, I remain in search of an answer.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I had the right idea going against a vulnerable favorite in the eighth, but used the wrong closer. Six Percent was nowhere close, and I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m coming out swinging with plays in the opener, as #4 TWO SHARP sure looks just that. I’ll have a $15 win bet on her, and I’ll player her on top of a $5 cold exacta that uses #1 SHE’S WICKED SMART underneath. In addition, she’s a single in $5 doubles that finish with #1 TRIUMPHANT ROAD/#1A PAXSATIONAL, #5 HURRICANE EXPRESS, and #6 SIX KINGS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Cinderella’s Dream, Race 8
Longshot: Gallant Greta, Race 10

R1

Two Sharp
She’s Wicked Smart
Stellify

#4 TWO SHARP (7/5): Ran well to be second in her debut despite being rushed up into contention after a slow start. She’s worked very well since that initial outing, and logical improvement would make her very tough in the Friday opener; #1 SHE’S WICKED SMART (12-1): Had every right to need her last-out clunker given that it was her first race since August. The lone prior effort was a solid third in her debut, a race won by eventual champion Just F Y I; #6 STELLIFY (5/2): Makes her debut in this spot and has every right to be a runner. This daughter of Justify has been working steadily for Brad Cox and draws a cushy outside post, which could come in handy.

R2

Six Kings
Hurricane Express
Barker entry

#6 SIX KINGS (9/2): Goes to the turf in his first start for Joe Sharp, and he’s bred to love the lawn. His dam is a half-sister to Film Maker, one of the best turf distaffers on the circuit in her day, and this is also his first start off the geld and first start against maiden claimers; #5 HURRICANE EXPRESS (4-1): Hasn’t run since February and comes back for a tag. These are aggressive connections, so that’s not necessarily a disqualifying move. He did have an excuse in his debut, when he didn’t break all that well going two turns first time out; BARKER ENTRY (10-1): I prefer #1A PAXSATIONAL, who showed speed in his last outing. That was his first start in 11 months, and the pace he set was a solid one. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him up top early, and if he’s a bit sharper, he may be the one they have to catch late.

R3

Perform
Power Seeker
Costa Terra

#1 PERFORM (5/2): Was caught wide all around the track last time out and was only beaten less than a length. The inside draw should help him considerably, and he’s got enough speed to claim a prime spot going into the first turn; #6 POWER SEEKER (3-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but his second-place finish last time out was a solid effort in his first two-turn outing. Given his pedigree, I’m surprised it took the connections so long to stretch him out, and he may be doing what he wants; #3 COSTA TERRA (4-1): Has hit the board in four of five local starts and will be doing his best running late. There’s some speed in this event, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., inspires some confidence.

R4

Athena Beach
Gone and Forgotten
Tricky Temper

#1 ATHENA BEACH (7/2): Is one of several win-types in here and merits a tepid top pick in a wide-open event. The cutback to six furlongs should help her, and while she misfired here twice last year, one effort was going two turns, and another came right before a very long layoff (so it’s safe to assume something went wrong); #2 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (5/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but boasts several strong efforts in a row coming into this event. Most recently, she ran second in a similar spot at Aqueduct, and Frankie Dettori getting the mount is interesting; #3 TRICKY TEMPER (8/5): Has had some gate issues in both of her local starts this year. If she channels her 2023 form, she’s got a chance, but I can’t swallow her likely short price on a significant “if,” so I’m against her.

R5

Fantasy Performer
Luna Love
Pay the Bills

#8 FANTASY PERFORMER (6-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees here, but while she’s the bigger price, I think she’s the most live one. She didn’t break well in her lone prior start, so there was an excuse there, and she comes back with Lasix, blinkers, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., in a race where there are no world-beaters; #3 LUNA LOVE (10-1): Comes back to the turf after a distant fifth in an off-the-turf race a few weeks ago. Her two-back effort against similar at Gulfstream wasn’t bad, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she steps forward at a price; #7 PAY THE BILLS (5/2): Is the Brown trainee many will bet, but I’m not 100% sold. She was one-paced in her unveiling in June, her recent workouts are slow, and this is a $200,000 auction purchase in for a $40,000 tag.

R6

Own the Field (MTO)
Emirates Road
Gilded Craken

#10 EMIRATES ROAD (6-1): Runs first off the claim for Brad Cox, who doesn’t claim many runners but boasts a stellar record with new acquisitions. His two-back effort at Pimlico was excellent, and while the outside draw isn’t ideal, I’m expecting a big effort (and certainly an improvement over his last-out clunker); #1 GILDED CRAKEN (5-1): May have been a bit too far back last time out, but still salvaged a solid second against similar company. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I expect him to be much more forwardly-placed in this event; #8 FAIR HAIRED BOY (20-1): Has a lot of back form, albeit from several years ago, and his last-out effort at Parx shows he may have some gas left in the tank. He does need a pace to run at, but if he gets one, I’m expecting him to rally for a piece of this.

R7

Maggie T
Santagata
Carol T

#6 MAGGIE T (7/2): Hasn’t missed the exacta in her last four starts and looks like one of the main speed horses in a seven-furlong event that’s a bit light on it. She doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which helps, and she’s been competitive in all four prior outings at this distance; #3 SANTAGATA (9/2): Took a big step forward at second asking to dust maiden special weight foes and tries winners for the first time. That’s not a small step up in class, but given her relative inexperience, she’s got plenty of room to move forward for a solid outfit; #7 CAROL T (4-1): Showed a bit more early speed last time out, when she was third downstate and may have moved a hair too soon. Her best game may be sitting way back and making one run, and she sure looks like a different horse since the addition of Lasix three starts ago.

R8

Cinderella’s Dream
Segesta
Greenfinch

#1 CINDERELLA’S DREAM (6/5): Has a price that’s tough to swallow in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks, but she couldn’t have been much more impressive in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She rated off of a moderate pace and gobbled up ground late. William Buick’s traveled across the pond for this one, and that’s often a clue that a Charles Appleby runner is sitting on a big one; #6 SEGESTA (7/2): Did a lot of the dirty work up front in the Belmont Oaks and had to settle for second. The presence of #4 MACANGA may make life a bit difficult for her, but I expect this one to be in front when they turn for home; #5 GREENFINCH (9/2): Comes over to the U.S. for Aidan O’Brien, who’s brought all-world jockey Ryan Moore in for the mount. She hasn’t quite run up against top-tier competition in Europe yet, but these connections are no strangers to success on American soil.

R9

Neat
Army Officer
Buttercream Babe

#4 NEAT (5/2): Has won five of eight lifetime starts, including a pair of graded stakes races, and he’s a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. I’m expecting him to be up close early on, and unlike many of his rivals, he’s shown he can run a top-class race without Lasix in his system; #8 ARMY OFFICER (7/2): Steps up in class, but does so after a sharp win in an optional claimer at this route back in June. Frankie Dettori rides back for Brad Cox, and he’s a contender if horse and rider can work out a trip from a tricky post; #2 BUTTERCREAM BABE (8-1): Faces the boys in this spot, which seems a bit ambitious on paper, but there aren’t any monsters in this spot and she fits on speed figures. Her two-back win at this route was a good one, and she exits a solid second in a stakes race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

R10

Geopolitics
Gallant Greta
Blue Suede Sue

#9 GEOPOLITICS (7/5): Will be a very heavy favorite in a race that hits me as a “now or never” spot. She’s had four near-misses in as many starts, but draws favorably, looks like the speed of the speed, and could prove very tough to run down; #8 GALLANT GRETA (12-1): Makes her first start in this spot off of a big five-furlong gate drill here last week. That’s not the only sharp work on her tab, she’s kin to four winners, and her female family has produced, among others, multiple Grade 1 winner and top-tier broodmare Take Charge Lady; #2 BLUE SUEDE SUE (6-1): Is another first-time starter with a solid series of drills ahead of her unveiling. This barn hasn’t gotten going yet at this stand, but it’s enlisted first-call rider Luis Saez, who should have this filly up close early on.