BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $976.75

Bettors woke up Wednesday to news of an impasse between NYRA and Churchill Downs. As a result, Saratoga betting was unavailable on both TwinSpires and DK Horse, two prominent horse racing wagering platforms. This is similar to the battle NYRA engaged in with FanDuel earlier this month, where both sides came to terms just before the meet started.

Neither side wins in a dispute like this, and I say that as someone that has friends and former colleagues at all three organizations. The losers, however, are bettors and fans of the sport who seem to take it on the chin with astounding regularity.

Anything that makes it harder to bet on and/or follow horse racing should be a non-starter. However, this is the second time this month we’ve had such an incident. Here’s hoping cooler heads prevail, and quickly.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: The fifth race was rained off the turf, cancelling my action.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the eighth, which houses my longshot of the day. That’s #6 SIX PERCENT, who cuts back after a nice win going two turns here earlier in the meet. I’ll have a $10 win ticket on him, as well as $3 exactas above and below #1 CICCIOBELLO and #2 SHADOW DRAGON. For more on the late Pick Five, check out this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne” below!

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Jak N Bunny, Race 4
Longshot: Six Percent, Race 8

R1

Kantarmaci entry
Charging Aero
Critical Threat

KANTARMACI ENTRY (8/5): I prefer #1 WRITER’S REGRET, though #1A BRONX BOMBER wouldn’t be illogical, either. The former showed speed against a much better group last time out, and I’m anticipating him being prominent early given the inside draw; #5 CHARGING AERO (8-1): Didn’t have a great trip last time out, but has some prior races from earlier this season that would make him competitive in here. Fernando Abreu’s barn is a solid one, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a step forward; #4 CRITICAL THREAT (3-1): Has won two in a row coming into this event, and while the move to a lower-percentage barn is a red flag, simply maintaining his form could be enough. He’s recorded a pair of wins over this surface, so we know he likes it here.

R2

Summer in Erin
Beer Run
Letter Perfect

#4 SUMMER IN ERIN (9/2): Is one of two first-time starters from the Christophe Clement barn in this race, and this is the one I prefer. His dam’s four prior foals to race are all winners, and he sports a sharp series of local drills ahead of his unveiling; #3 BEER RUN (2-1): Is approaching “now or never” territory in his seventh career start. He’s been competitive at this level and distance elsewhere, and if the first-time starters need a race, he makes lots of sense. At his likely price, though, I’ll try to beat him; #7 LETTER PERFECT (3-1): Hammered for $425,000 last year and is the other half of the Clement duo. He’s got a right to be a runner, but none of his pedigree says “turf,” which could be a problem.

R3

Ichiban (MTO)
Avenue Niel
Aspen Grove

#4 AVENUE NIEL (6-1): Comes in off a long layoff for Clement and Rosario and boasts a recent work that hints she’ll be ready to run. She was last seen running third behind Chili Flag, who’s turned into one of the better turf distaffers in the country, and she’s run well going very long on turf in the past; #5 ASPEN GROVE (1-1): Has been running against much, much better horses of late, but I have my doubts. She’s yet to truly move forward from age three to age four, and while she could certainly win, this is a tough spot for the level, and she’s no lock; #1 BE YOUR BEST (5/2): Will attempt to drop down in class for the third time this summer following several races being rained off the turf. She won several races here two summers ago, including the P.G. Johnson, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

R4

Jak N Bunny
Caldo Candy
Key Point

#4 JAK N BUNNY (3-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes, where he’s been a win machine. He’s won six of eight career starts, has plenty of gate speed, and looks every bit like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #8 CALDO CANDY (3-1): Romped over first-level allowance foes here last month and draws a solid outside post. The third-place finisher from his last-out effort has since come back to win, and this barn is solid at keeping horses on the right track; #7 KEY POINT (5/2): Hasn’t run in nearly two years, but has posted a series of solid drills for new trainer Brad Cox. His form from 2022 was solid, and he’d benefit from some of the other contenders getting involved in a speed duel.

R5

Dancing Liana
Good Mission
Ariana Rye

#5 DANCING LIANA (3-1): Showed speed last time out, when she was second in a similar spot downstate. She sure looks like the horse with the most early zip in this field, and I think she’s got a great chance to get comfortable up front and forget to stop; #1 GOOD MISSION (6-1): Debuts for a solid first-out outfit and may not have to be much to win on debut. There are some solid works on her tab, and while first-time starters drawing the rail can be problematic, the presence of strong gate rider Kendrick Carmouche seems like a plus; #4 ARIANA RYE (2-1): Comes back to dirt and drops in class, but hits me as a vulnerable favorite. Her dirt races downstate weren’t bad, but the drop from state-bred maiden special weight races to state-bred maiden claimers isn’t a massive one, and that last-out clunker is a concern.

R6

Iron Max
McDiesel
Shoot the Waves

#8 IRON MAX (7/2): Came flying in his debut last week, when he was fourth and beaten less than four lengths despite showing no interest early on. This barn’s runners tend to get better with experience, and the fairly quick wheel-back hits me as a sign of strength; #3 MCDIESEL (9/2): Dead-heated for second in a race several runners in here exit, and he hits me as the most likely frontrunner in a race that seems light on early speed. His pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and it’s possible he gets an ideal trip on an easy lead; #6 SHOOT THE WAVES (12-1): Didn’t do much running in his debut, but I think you can draw a line through that race. His bloodlines say he’ll relish more ground, which he gets here, and the additions of blinkers and Tyler Gaffalione could both move him forward at a price.

R7

On a Spree
St Andrews
Bar Fourteen

#3 ON A SPREE (2-1): Has won his last two starts by a total of nearly 11 lengths and seems like a very logical favorite. Unlike several others in here, he’s got plenty of two-turn form, and it’s possible he’s better than ever as an 8-year-old after going to Mike Maker’s barn earlier this season; #6 ST ANDREWS (5-1): Has been popular at the claim box this season and has a flexible running style that could come in handy. He’s shown enough tactical speed to sit just off the pace, as well as a solid closing kick, and that should give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 BAR FOURTEEN (12-1): Needs to improve on speed figures but sure seems like the main speed, and that could make him dangerous at a price. Luis Saez has been a bit cold to start the meet, but he’s run second and third quite a bit, and this one has every right to hang around for a piece of it.

R8

Six Percent
Cicciobello
Shadow Dragon

#6 SIX PERCENT (12-1): Cuts back in distance after an impressive win against $32,000 claimers last time out. This is a tougher group, yes, but I like horses cutting back from two turns to the Wilson chute, and jockey Ramon Vazquez seems to be finding some momentum; #1 CICCIOBELLO (8-1): Is a pace play for me second off the bench, as the rail is a great draw for a miler with speed. He’s won out of the Wilson chute before, and this seems like the route and level he wants; #2 SHADOW DRAGON (3-1): Fits on speed figures but hasn’t won in more than a year. He did just miss last time out at Aqueduct, but the chute is an unknown, he doesn’t have a ton of early speed, and the likely price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

R9

McKulick
Eternal Hope
Chop Chop

#7 MCKULICK (2-1): Seeks to defend her title in the Grade 2 Glens Falls and should get an ideal setup to do just that. She loves these longer turf routes, was beaten just four lengths in the Grade 1 New York last time out, and should get plenty of pace to run at over a turf course where she’s enjoyed plenty of success; #5 ETERNAL HOPE (3-1): Went 2-for-2 stateside last year and attracts Flavien Prat in her first start since October. If she’s ready, she’s another who could get a favorable setup, but that layoff of nearly 10 months is a significant concern, even with powerhouse connections attached; #3 CHOP CHOP (5/2): Has yet to finish out of the exacta in six starts this season and exits a close-up second in a Grade 3 at Delaware Park. Her best effort came in the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland, which she won, and she could get first run on the pace-setters when the real running starts.

R10

Welcome Back Babe (MTO)
Coach Sessa
Dance On Air

#12 COACH SESSA (9/2): Draws a terrible post in her first start since mid-October, but looms very large if she’s ready to run. Her debut here last summer at this route was easily her best race of the campaign, and she gets Lasix for the first time in the Thursday nightcap; #4 DANCE ON AIR (6-1): Had a few excuses last time out, as that was her first two-turn try and she was wide going into the first turn. This will be just the third start of this Chad Brown trainee’s career, and the addition of Flavien Prat certainly doesn’t hurt; #2 STARLIGHT DANCER (8-1): Responded to the added distance with a decent second at this level downstate. She didn’t have much pact to chase that day, but she made up some ground in the stretch and may have found what she wants to do.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,006.75

One of my favorite horses in training returns to the track Sunday. That’s Nobals, and yes, he’s a gelding.

Nobals was the key to a very successful Breeders’ Cup last year. I spent the day at the OTB near the Alameda County Fairgrounds in Pleasanton (my adopted home track here in Northern California). It was a chalky day, for the most part, but Nobals put a jolt into the proceedings by winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at double-digit odds.

As an aside, you haven’t lived until you’ve been part of a grown mob screaming, “COME ON, NOBALS!!!” As a further aside, based on Larry Collmus’s call of that race, we can all agree the people insisting it was pronounced “nobles” were lying through their teeth, right?

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of my spot plays fired. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on my best bet of the program. That’s #6 SHESALITTLE EDGY, and I’ll try to extract some value with $10 exactas using her on top of #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE and #4 GOLDCREST. In addition, she’ll finish off $5 doubles that start in the second, with #1 TRY IT AGAIN and #5 GOLDEN DAGGER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Shesalittle Edgy, Race 3
Longshot: Two Turntables, Race 6

R1

My Shot
Reliable Source
Donor Advised

#2 MY SHOT (3-1): Makes her debut here after a string of very sharp workouts in Kentucky. This daughter of Constitution sold for $240,000 as a yearling, and Tom Amoss has enjoyed plenty of success at this meet already; #4 RELIABLE SOURCE (5/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group and ran a solid second in her unveiling last month. She rallied from ninth of 11 in that event and attracts Flavien Prat for career start number two; #6 DONOR ADVISED (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a right to be a good one. She’s a daughter of top sire Gun Runner and sold for $325,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale. The hesitation here is because of the likely short price and the workouts, which are solid but don’t appear spectacular.

R2

Golden Dagger
Try It Again
George’s Vice

#5 GOLDEN DAGGER (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a claiming race where I don’t have much of an opinion. However, she drops down in class and seems like the lone closer in a race full of low-quality early speed. The question is, can she replicate her turf and synthetic form on dirt?; #1 TRY IT AGAIN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but exits a decent second at this level and distance downstate. This barn is on a cold streak to start the meet, but this is another that’s at least shown some interest in passing others late; #2 GEORGE’S VICE (5/2): Drops in class from the state-bred allowance ranks and has shown plenty of early zip. Her last two starts against claimers have been wins, though you have to go back to 2023 to find them.

R3

Shesalittle Edgy
Goldcrest
Ribot’s Valentine

#6 SHESALITTLE EDGY (8/5): Drops down in class for this event after being competitive for twice this tag two starts ago. The runaway winner from her last-out effort came back to win again, and this seems like a much softer spot; #4 GOLDCREST (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., in her debut on this circuit. Most recently, she was a close-up third going a bit longer at Monmouth Park, and she was a runaway winner at this distance two back at Gulfstream (albeit against weaker foes); #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE (8-1): Comes back to dirt and drops in for a tag after two unsuccessful turf tries downstate. Her lone start at this distance was a win, and she’s a candidate to improve at a bit of a price.

R4

First Class Cat (MTO)
Delightful Dixie
Linarite

#4 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (9/2): Is 2-for-2 since coming off the bench last month and gets a class test here. However, she’s a speed horse that attracts Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders in the game, and I think she’ll be the one to catch; #2 LINARITE (9/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year but likes this route and came up just short last time out. If the pace is faster than I anticipate, this is the mare that should be the prime beneficiary; #6 FANCYPANTS JULIANA (7/2): Is the stablemate of my second choice, and she probably has a bit more early speed than that one. However, she’s got a history of finding trouble, and she’ll likely be a shorter price than her barn buddy given the presence of Flavien Prat. She’s not impossible, but given the relative lack of value, I’ll look elsewhere.

R5

Regulatory Risk
Sedona
Crushed Ice

#4 REGULATORY RISK (9/5): Takes a big drop in class after running into Thorpedo Anna twice in a row. She was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks two back, and she gets Lasix for the first time, which could move her forward further against first-level allowance foes; #7 SEDONA (2-1): Just missed last time out after sitting a few lengths behind a moderate early pace. She’s bred to get better with experience, and there should be some pace for her to chase; #1 CRUSHED ICE (12-1): Has won three in a row on her way up the class ladder and has the early zip to take advantage of the inside draw. This is a much, much tougher group, but she’s certainly on the improve and could lead them a long way at a price.

R6

Opulent Restraint
Two Turntables
Coral Sea

#3 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Is one of the best-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds, from a turf standpoint. This daughter of Dubawi is out of Significant Form, who won several graded stakes races, and she’s been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of her unveiling; #8 TWO TURNTABLES (15-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was on dirt. This daughter of Street Boss and an Empire Maker mare gets to go two turns on turf, which is what she’s bred to do, and Mike Maker trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going; #9 CORAL SEA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may be talented enough to overcome the outside post. This daughter of Kingman has a classy female family dating back to third dam Win McCool, a graded stakes winner.

R7

Rivelli entry
Boat’s a Rockin
No Nay Hudson

RIVELLI ENTRY (4/5): #1 NOBALS makes his 2024 debut off a long layoff. The last time we saw him was when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and while this is a very strong group for the level, he’ll be tough to beat if he’s ready to roll; #7 BOAT’S A ROCKIN (10-1): Wired a solid group at this route two starts ago and probably went just a bit too long last time out. He’s a distance specialist through and through, and I expect him to be prominent early; #8 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Hasn’t raced since December but is yet another runner with plenty of back class. The recent local drills are very sharp, and Wesley Ward knows how to get horses ready off of long breaks.

R8

Devil’s Cay
For Some Reason
Quick Hammer

#2 DEVIL’S CAY (7/2): Has been running against much better on turf and comes back to the dirt here. His races against similar earlier this year at Aqueduct were solid, and Flavien Prat lands here when he probably had several options; #4 FOR SOME REASON (4-1): Takes a big drop in class for ultra-aggressive connections. His most recent drill was a sharp one here at Saratoga, and I think there’s a chance he just didn’t like Churchill. Gulfstream is a quirky surface, but he showed talent there and has a big chance if he can channel that form; #5 QUICK HAMMER (5-1): Was an impressive wire-to-wire winner two back before tiring as an odds-on favorite last time out. He seems like the main speed in here, and if this track is kind to early zip, he could get comfortable out of the gate beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.

R9

Silver Knott
Ohana Honor
Soldier Rising

#2 SILVER KNOTT (4/5): Has won back-to-back Grade 2 events since the switch to Flavien Prat and looms large in the Grade 2 Bowling Green. Simply put, anything close to what we’ve seen from him this season would make him very, very hard to beat, and his status as a likely odds-on favorite reflects that; #1 OHANA HONOR (7/2): Exits a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Manhattan, which was won by Measured Time in very impressive fashion. He chased my top pick two back, and while it sure seems like he’s a little better with Lasix, he’s got what it takes to get a big piece of this; #5 SOLDIER RISING (4-1): Hasn’t run since November and hasn’t won since 2022, but has shown a strong closing kick and was second in three Grade 1 events a season ago. There does seem to be some speed signed on; the question is, is he ready to go off of such a long break? Given the quality of my top choice, he may have to be.

R10

Wine Responsibly (MTO)
Miracle Mike
Laurel Valley

#3 MIRACLE MIKE (5-1): Didn’t get his desired trip last time out and still ran a very big race. He was third that day after being on the lead, and nothing about his prior form says that’s what he wants to do. His lone prior turf race this year was a win, and I think he’s well-meant in the Sunday nightcap; #2 LAUREL VALLEY (9/5): Would be far from shocking and is a likely heavy favorite. However, he’s had favorable setups in each of his last two starts and hasn’t gotten the job done. It’s logical to ask what changes here, especially given the relative lack of value; #7 SLAPINTHEFACE (3-1): May have needed his last race, which came off a very long break and only saw him be beaten a few lengths. Improvement is logical second off the bench, and he should be moving the right way late.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,031.75

If you’re a pedigree nerd (a term I use with endearment, because I’m one, too!), you won’t want to miss Saturday’s seventh race. There are some 2-year-olds bred to be any kind in there, including the very first horse in the program. That’s Invictus, who’s by top sire Into Mischief and out of the freakishly-fast mare Serengeti Empress.

He won’t have it easy at first asking, though. Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Steve Asmussen all saddle precocious-looking colts, and another top trainer, Bill Mott, runs two (including one with an experience edge). It’s a fascinating race to handicap, and if you’re a Pick Six player, it’s definitely not an easy start to that sequence!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Better Bet salvaged a rough day in the pick box by at least getting me a few bucks in the bankroll. Doubles and win bets involving Run Curtis Run fizzled, but $25 in bets returned $33.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll repeat the strategy I used Friday in Saturday’s fourth and fifth races. I like #7 BE THE BOSS and #1 HAVE YOU HEARD quite a bit in each event. I’ll have $10 win bets on both runners, and I’ll link them in a $5 double. Given their respective prices, one win would mean a very good day, while back-to-back wins would make for a really nice score.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Scarlet Poppy, Race 8
Longshot: Time Song, Race 9

R1

West Beach
Atomic Age
Seattle Road

#7 WEST BEACH (5/2): Is a very logical favorite in the Saturday lid-lifter and has an experience edge over most of his opponents in this spot. It’s good experience, too, as he was a solid second going shorter downstate and is bred to love this two-turn route of ground; #3 ATOMIC AGE (7/2): Is by Justify and hails from a precocious female family. His dam was stakes-placed at two, his second dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old, and his third dam also threw top sire Constitution. Simply put, he’s got every reason to be a runner; #6 SEATTLE ROAD (15-1): Merits a long look at a price given his pedigree, one that says this two-turn route will not be a problem. This son of Quality Road is out of a Tapit mare that placed in a Grade 3 event, and Tom Amoss knows how to win with first-time starters.

R2

Tinebar
Iron Man Ira
Sorority Prank

#5 TINEBAR (3-1): Showed a bit of early speed in his debut, which came going a mile downstate. That’s not an easy ask of a first-time starter, even for offspring of Arrogate that should get a distance of ground. His recent workouts include a pair of bullet drills, and I’m expecting a significant step forward; #3 IRON MAN IRA (9/5): Makes sense as a favorite given his two and three-back efforts, which were both solid. The last-out clunker as an odds-on favorite, however, gives me some cause for concern, even though Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #7 SORORITY PRANK (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and figures to be prominent early. Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in upstate New York right now, and the draw near the outside of this field should give horse and rider an opportunity at an ideal trip.

R3

Kantarmaci entry
Master of Arms
Natural Harbor

KANTARMACI ENTRY (3-1): I prefer #1A AMUNDSON, although #1 MARKET ALERT doesn’t seem terribly-meant. Amundson, though, has won three in a row and loves this Saratoga surface. His stalking style should suit him perfectly and give him first run going into the far turn; #7 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in from Churchill and seems to run pretty much the same race every time out. He’s broken a bit slow in his last few starts, which have come against starter allowance foes. A clean start would give him a big chance; #4 NATURAL HARBOR (6-1): Comes north from Parx and is another taking a bit of a drop in class. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which is a trait I value in a race with lots of zip in the field.

R4

Be the Boss
Speak Easy
Edified

#7 BE THE BOSS (5-1): Comes in off a three-month freshening for Mike Maker, whose barn is heating up. The recent bullet drill jumps off the page, and as a stalker/closer in a race with plenty of early speed, he should benefit from the likely race shape as much as any runner in here; #5 SPEAK EASY (1-1): Will almost certainly be a heavy favorite, but I have some doubts. He was scratched prior to the Fountain of Youth earlier this year and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since. Maybe he’s so talented it doesn’t matter, but this sure seems far shorter than he wants, and he’s not going up against a bad group, either; #8 EDIFIED (15-1): Goes second off the bench for Steve Asmussen and almost certainly needed his 2024 debut last month. That was his first try since October, and he rushed into contention after a less-than-ideal start. Logical improvement here would give him a shot to hit the board at a price.

R5

Have You Heard
Who’s the King
Pando

#1 HAVE YOU HEARD (6-1): May have just been a dirt router all along. He’s won two of three starts since being claimed by Mike Maker back in March, including a last-out score at Colonial in an off-the-turf event. I think he’s doing what he wants now, and that he may still have further room to grow; #4 WHO’S THE KING (5/2): Exits a second-place finish at Churchill where he hit the front in the stretch and was reeled in. His early speed is a plus, and this barn merits respect, but the nine-furlong distance seems like it may be a hair too far; #7 PANDO (12-1): Is a plodding-type who should appreciate the stretchout in distance here. Jose Ortiz takes the call, and he should have this gelding fairly close to a reasonable pace early on.

R6

Skelly
Baby Yoda
Nakatomi

#6 SKELLY (6/5): Was run down as a big favorite last time, but it helps that that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking. The outside draw is a big plus, and I think he’ll be the one to catch in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt; #4 BABY YODA (7/2): Never looked like a loser in the Grade 2 True North, which he won by six lengths during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. There’s no denying his love of the Saratoga main track, but this does seem like a stronger field; #1 NAKATOMI (5/2): Is a consistent, hard-knocking sort that exits a third-place finish in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He’s been working steadily at Keeneland ahead of his return, and he should do his best running late beneath Tyler Gaffalione.

R7

Noble Confessor
Tharhom
Chancer McPatrick

#6 NOBLE CONFESSOR (6-1): Sports several flashy drills ahead of his debut in this wide-open baby race. This son of Quality Road boasts a classy female family, including a dam that’s kin to a pair of stakes winners, and we all know how good Todd Pletcher is with first-time starters; #9 THARHOM (4-1): Hammered for $650,000 earlier this year, a massive number considering sire Global Campaign’s modest $12,500 stud fee. His dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Yesbyjimminy, and some of the workouts show that he may have plenty of talent; #4 CHANCER MCPATRICK (4-1): Sold for $725,000 in Florida despite a just-OK pedigree, so he must’ve knocked some socks off during his “breeze” at that sale. The most recent work hints that trainer Chad Brown has him on the right track ahead of his debut, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus.

R8

Scarlet Poppy
Lamorna
Aunt Nona

#1 SCARLET POPPY (2-1): Responded to cutting back in distance last time out with a good second downstate. There isn’t much other early speed in the race, and the last two works hint that trainer Wesley Ward has tightened the screws on this filly; #7 LAMORNA (9/2): Probably needed his last-out clunker, which was his first start since a near-miss in October of last year. She’s found trouble in most of her outings to date, but she’s also shown a strong late kick and would benefit from a faster-than-expected pace; #5 AUNT NONA (10-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, especially considering trainer John Kimmel’s horses tend to need a race to get going. She wasn’t too far behind my top selection that day, and a move forward would put her right there at a price.

R9

Pirate (MTO)
Time Song
West Hollywood

#4 TIME SONG (10-1): Was third in a swiftly-run race during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, which came during a time of uncertainty for this barn. The situation’s a bit more stable now, and this field doesn’t seem quite as strong as the one he ran against last month; #8 WEST HOLLYWOOD (4-1): Romped in his American debut two back before being reeled in and settling for second in his first try against winners. Early speed isn’t a bad thing to have on the inner turf, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dictate terms from the jump beneath Flavien Prat; #12 RISK TOLERANCE (3-1): Did nothing wrong in his debut, when he rallied to graduate at first asking. The far-outside draw is a big problem, and the likely price against a good group hits me as way too short, but he’s got plenty of potential and runs for a barn that merits respect.

R10

Fierceness
Sierra Leone
Gould’s Gold

#6 FIERCENESS (9/5): Gets another shot from me in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy after an absolute dud in the Kentucky Derby. His inconsistency is a problem, but when he’s good, he’s outstanding, and the outside draw in this short field should be a boon to his chances; #1 SIERRA LEONE (1-1): Certainly has the ability to win this, but he also creates his own trouble with regularity and is a closer that draws the rail. I won’t be stunned if he breaks through, but at his likely short price, I simply can’t endorse him on top; #5 GOULD’S GOLD (15-1): Definitely needs to improve on speed figures, but he’s a closer in a race full of early speed. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big price.

R11

Hagrid’s Flame (MTO)
Ez Roll
Teta’s Trotter

#9 EZ ROLL (6-1): Has been competitive at this level in his last two starts and gets a massive rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He’s never run a bad race since being switched to the turf last fall, and I expect him to be flying late; #3 TETA’S TROTTER (15-1): Won at first asking for trainer David Donk, whose first-time starters often need some time. The last-out clunker was disappointing, but he’s got a win over this turf course and attracts John Velazquez for this event; #1 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (4-1): Exits a strong second in a two-turn turf route downstate, and his best efforts have come over similar configurations. Javier Castellano rides back, which is very encouraging, and he may have enough speed to hold early position along the rail.

R12

Summer Whirl
North End Lady
Autumn

#4 SUMMER WHIRL (5/2): Charged late last time out as a 3/2 betting favorite and was beaten just a neck. Her lone outing before that saw her run third in a local turf sprint, and that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking; #10 NORTH END LADY (5-1): Showed some speed in both of her last two starts, both second-place finishes. Her try on June 8th included her working with an outside post, which she’ll need to do again here, but any trip where she can save some ground moves her up; #5 AUTUMN (6-1): Went to the front early on last time out and settled for third, being beaten less than a length. Her last three turf tries have all been solid, and she’s got plenty of versatility that could come in handy in a wide-open Saturday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,023.75

I was critical of Thursday’s card in yesterday’s bankroll section (which questioned the inclusion of a $10,000 claiming race). However, I consider myself to be fair, and I must give NYRA a lot of credit for assembling a fantastic Friday program.

In addition to the Amsterdam for 3-year-old sprinters, there are several stakes-caliber allowance/optional claiming events making up the slate. The ninth, in particular, looks more like a Grade 3 race, with several graded stakes-type horses lining up in what may very well be a prep for a race like the Forego later this summer.

Thursday’s cards are the ones that can be chores to handicap. Friday’s cards, by contrast, put a pep in your step from start to finish.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Dot’s Dollar didn’t fire in the seventh, which did indeed fall apart late (just for the wrong closer). After scratches, I dropped $41, though seeing my friend The Wizard win with a horse he owns softened the blow considerably!

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh and eighth races, which house a pair of horses I like quite a bit. I’ll have $10 win bets on #5 BETTER BET and #2 RUN CURTIS RUN in those races, and I’ll link them with a $5 double. If one of them wins, it’s a good day. If both win, it’s a very, very good day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Better Bet, Race 7
Longshot: Bustin Bay, Race 4

R1

Kahfre
Valenzan Day
Mason Mania

#5 KHAFRE (3-1): Is back at what seems like the correct level after a clunker against allowance foes downstate. His wire-to-wire win two starts back was sharp, and Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone to this point in the meet; #6 VALENZAN DAY (3-1): Is another with speed and comes in on a two-race win streak. Horses that can go two turns sure seem to have an edge coming out of the chute, and the most recent score came going longer at Aqueduct; #7 MASON MANIA (6-1): May have lost all chance at the break last time out against state-bred optional claiming foes. He comes back for a much smaller tag, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he’s shown he can run well at this level, and a return to his early-2024 form gives him a chance.

R2

Good Mission (MTO)
Generous Luva
Majulu

#1 GENEROUS LUVA (7/2): Drops in for a tag after showing speed twice against state-bred maiden special weight foes downstate. She adds both blinkers and Lasix, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., opts to stay aboard when he likely had several options; #10 MAJULU (4-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf event a few weeks ago. This is another adding Lasix, and given the pedigree, I have to think she’ll move forward getting onto the grass; #3 REALTA (10-1): Ran the best race of her career two starts ago, which doubled as her only turf race to date. She made up quite a bit of ground that day, and a return to her preferred surface means she could be rolling late at a price.

R3

Pure Force
World Record
Jefferson Street

#3 PURE FORCE (9/2): Hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts to date and may very well be the biggest price in the Grade 2 Amsterdam. I love the two-back bullet drill over the training track, and despite the only-OK win percentage, Brad Cox trainees are firing at this stand; #1 WORLD RECORD (3-1): May have been a bit too far back in the Maxfield last time out, and the rail draw means he may need to be quicker here. His wire-to-wire win two back at Churchill was sharp, and Prat sees fit to ride back; #4 JEFFERSON STREET (8/5): Ran very well last time out and might well be favored, but I have my doubts. That race fell apart up front and was against a much weaker field. Add in that the main track was playing very, very fast that day, and I’m just not sure he can replicate that kind of performance. Against this field, he may have to, and that makes him a likely underlay I need to try to beat.

R4

Occult
Bustin Bay
Stonewall Star

#1 OCCULT (8/5): Gets significant class relief after spending the last year and a half going against top-notch competition. She’s a Grade 3 winner with a Grade 1 placing, and the inside draw out of the Wilson chute is a big, big plus for what seems like the horse to beat; #3 BUSTIN BAY (12-1): Seems like an inflated price off of a race that was far, far shorter than her desired distance (and, as such, seems like a throwout). She loves Saratoga, has plenty of tactical speed, and should be prominent throughout; #5 STONEWALL STAR (5-1): Has hit the board in 11 of 13 lifetime starts and was second in an off-the-turf stakes race at this route last month. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one gets to add Lasix in what is, on paper, a drop in class (but an event that came up very, very tough for the condition).

R5

Outtawaterbury
Judge Rules
Dyna Point

#10 OUTTAWATERBURY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. I went here because he sure seems like the main speed in a race devoid of it. I’m not sure if he really wants two turns, but he does drop in class, which could wake him up; #8 JUDGE RULES (3-1): Closed well to be second last time out in a race that had a bit more zip up front early on than this spot likely will. The rider switch to Flavien Prat is a big one, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives him a shot, but he may need to show a bit more early interest; #2 DYNA POINT (8-1): Ships up from Maryland after stepping forward in his first start for a new barn last time out. This is probably a tougher spot, but Luis Saez has been enticed to ride and any sort of a move forward gives this gelding a shot in a wide-open event.

R6

Off Script
Miss Welch
Accelerating

#6 OFF SCRIPT (5/2): Possesses a massive two-back bullet drill that jumps off the page in this fascinating 2-year-old event. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance, and she hammered for $200,000 at auction last summer across the street; #9 MISS WELCH (7/2): Runs for Jeremiah Englehart, who has enjoyed plenty of success already this summer, and possesses a precocious pedigree. This daughter of Maclean’s Music is out of a mare that won first time out and has already produced first-out winner (and stakes winner) Downtown Mischief; #3 ACCELERATING (3-1): Sold for $325,000 earlier this year and is by champion sprinter Mitole. She’s got a few fast works on the tab, but the bottom-side pedigree indicates she may need a race or two (and possibly some more distance) to strut her best stuff.

R7

Dreamlike (MTO)
Better Bet
Be Like Clint

#5 BETTER BET (7/2): Had a very eventful trip last time out at Aqueduct in a race I have no problem drawing a line through. His two and three-back efforts were both sharp, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., sure seems like a clue in this turf marathon; #6 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Has run well in a pair of starts at this distance downstate and has some versatility. He closed from way back two starts ago, but was much closer last time out, which gives Javier Castellano several options; #2 VESTING (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after a wire-to-wire win last month. The connections merit respect, and he may go favored, but he sat a picture-perfect trip that day and there’s other speed (at least on paper) in this spot. He’s not impossible, but may need to improve to make it two in a row.

R8

Celestial Glaze (MTO)
Run Curtis Run
Mid Day Image

#2 RUN CURTIS RUN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but likes this route and was a very, very good second behind a stakes-quality winner at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. His running lines show a bunch of classy horses, he draws well, and this seems like an ideal spot; #11 MID DAY IMAGE (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in off the AE list but merits respect if he does. He’s found his form this season at Laurel in several races at this distance, and he should get plenty of pace to run at; #4 FAUCI (12-1): Doesn’t like to win, but is a fun horse to root for given his running style and ability to pick up a check. He’s hit the board in all six local starts, has a right to improve second off a long layoff, and is another that should be rolling late.

R9

Accretive
Zozos
Scotland

#1 ACCRETIVE (5-1): Exits a clunker in the Grade 2 True North but drops down in class and is allowed to run on Lasix. That sure seems to be the key, judging by the four starts on his page with the anti-bleeding medication, and his two wins here last summer show he likes this surface; #9 ZOZOS (4-1): Is one of many in here with lots of back class. Two starts ago, he ran third in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, and he won three stakes races a season ago. That last-out clunker raises some questions, but anything close to his 2023 form gives him a big chance; #12 SCOTLAND (6-1): Won the Curlin here a season ago and comes back to New York after a few runs at Churchill Downs. Junior Alvarado knows this one well, and the far-outside post should give horse and rider plenty of options against a classy group.

R10

Mission Hill
Film Academy
Wind Dancer

#5 MISSION HILL (5/2): Is approaching “now or never” status after three straight starts as a beaten favorite. The slight cutback in distance should help him, though, and his two-back effort here off the layoff was a very good effort. Another defeat, though, may put him on this handicapper’s “never again” list; #4 FILM ACADEMY (5-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start since January and has a right to improve second off the bench. There isn’t a ton of other speed in here, and I’m expecting Jose Ortiz to get aggressive out of the gate. Such a trip could mean he leads them a long way; #6 WIND DANCER (7/2): Adds blinkers in what’s just his third lifetime start and could have more room to improve than his opponents. His debut here was solid, and he wasn’t too far behind my top choice last time out.