BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,064.75

I’ve been following racing at Saratoga for almost 30 years. I’ve never seen a $10,000 claimer on a card before, but one makes an appearance Thursday.

I’m not going to skewer the racing secretary too much for this. It’s the job of a secretary to card races that fill, based on the horses that are on the backstretch, and this one goes with eight runners. However, it wasn’t all that long ago that Saratoga barely carded claiming races of any kind, and the appearance of this one is jarring.

There’s always chatter about Saratoga adding dates or starting earlier. I’m not a fan of that idea for a number of reasons, and this is one of them. If Saratoga adds dates, these are the races we’ll see more and more, and that’s not the Saratoga I know and have loved since I was a kid.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Clearly Unhinged appeared to have every shot in the Honorable Miss but never really kicked on. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the seventh, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #2 DOT’S DOLLAR, and I’ll try to extract some value out of that one in a few ways. I’ll have a $13 win bet, and he’s a single for me in $5 doubles starting with #3 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD, #4 ARK ROYAL, and #7 IN THE CHASE in the sixth and ending with #5 LA BANQUERA and #8 DOLOMITE in the eighth. Finally, I’ll have a $2 Pick Three starting in the sixth using all of these horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dot’s Dollar, Race 7
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 10

R1

Young At Heart
Mega Changer
Miss C Banker

#11 YOUNG AT HEART (7/2): Is bred to be a solid turf horse and could have a big chance if she draws in off the AE list. She needs a scratch to run, but given her pedigree and a strong series of works for a high-percentage barn, I think she’s well-meant; #12 MEGA CHANGER (8-1): Is out of the mare Megahertz, who was a fantastic turf runner in her day. She ships up from Penn National and is another who could be very competitive if she draws in; #10 MISS C BANKER (5/2): Showed speed in her debut downstate and has a right to improve at second asking. This barn’s runner’s tend to improve with experience, and such a step forward (combined with scratches that keep the AE’s out) would likely make her the one to catch.

R2

Run Devil
Condiment Girl
Mucho Mama Mia

#4 RUN DEVIL (5-1): Comes back to what’s probably the right level and cuts back to what’s probably the right distance. Her two-turn efforts at Monmouth seem like throwouts, and she should relish a route similar to the one she won at three starts ago; #6 CONDIMENT GIRL (5/2): Takes a big drop in her first start for Linda Rice, and channeling her late-2023 and early-2024 form would strictly make her the one to beat. Those last two starts, though, sure seem like a major step back, and because of that, I’ll try to beat her; #7 MUCHO MAMA MIA (10-1): Has won two of her last three starts, including a restricted claiming event last time out. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and this barn has gotten off to a very strong start this season.

R3

Golden Degree (MTO)
Idea Generation
High Stick

#7 IDEA GENERATION (8/5): Makes her 2024 debut in this spot and is a major player if she’s ready to run. Her 2023 campaign included a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Waya, and Chad Brown-trained comebackers always merit respect; #8 HIGH STICK (5/2): Comes up from Monmouth and is the likely early speed in this event. She went wire-to-wire going a mile and a quarter last season, so this distance may very well be what she wants; HOOLIE ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #1A IN TIME, a winner going long in France last year. Her form includes tries in a few Group 2 races there and in Dubai, and her back class could be enough to get her a piece of this.

R4

Unsolved Mystery (MTO)
Pallotta Sisters
Miss Bonnie T

#9 PALLOTTA SISTERS (8/5): Takes a significant class drop for a barn that doesn’t do this very often. However, this ownership group is an aggressive one, so perhaps they’re calling the shots. Either way, anything close to either of her outings this year would make her a formidable favorite; #2 MISS BONNIE T (10-1): Provides value underneath due to her demonstrated love of the Saratoga turf course. She has three top-two finishes in four local starts, and she goes third off the bench here beneath Javier Castellano; #7 ELLE EST FORTE (5/2): Rallied to finish second in May downstate and is another dropping down in class. She may need a pace to run at, but if she gets one, she should be heard from late.

R5

Pletcher entry
Masterwork
Paynter’s Prodigy

PLETCHER ENTRY (1-1): I’m not a fan of the price, but #1A UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL seems very, very tough. Something clearly went wrong in the last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, which came after a solid maiden-breaking score at Keeneland. If this one does not run, though, #1 WHISKEY N SODA seems like a bet-against at his likely price; #9 MASTERWORK (5-1): Drops in after tiring against $40,000 claimers last time out and stretches back out to a two-turn distance. He’s also been gelded since the last-out clunker, and that could also move him forward; #3 PAYNTER’S PRODIGY (12-1): Hasn’t run since January but hasn’t performed badly in two starts to date. He won going two turns at first asking at Laurel, then finished third over Gulfstream’s synthetic surface before going to the sidelines.

R6

In the Chase
Ark Royal
Shakeitforthebird

#7 IN THE CHASE (3-1): Debuts for a sharp first-out barn and is bred to be a runner. His dam’s three prior foals to race are all winners, and third dam Darien Miss is the damn of multiple Grade 1 winner Fleet Renee and Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Future Quest, among others; #4 ARK ROYAL (6-1): Is another first-time starter with a productive dam. He’s kin to four winners and has been working well in the mornings for a trainer that doesn’t always ask for a ton out of his first-time starters; #3 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (9/2): Posted several sharp works at Finger Lakes and has been stabled at Saratoga for a few weeks. When these connections ship in, they mean business, and you’ll want to watch the tote board early to see if smart money shows up.

R7

Dot’s Dollar
Printrack
Magnolia Midnight

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (4-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown they can pass others late, and exits a sharp score downstate beneath Flavien Prat. Prat sees fit to ride back in this spot, and he should have plenty of pace to chase in this seven-furlong starter allowance; #6 PRINTRACK (2-1): Hasn’t finished out of the exacta in more than a year and figures to be prominent early. His last-out score wasn’t bad, but he’ll likely have to go much faster early on in this spot; #5 MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT (4-1): Chased my second choice home last time out, and I have to think they’ll be a bit more aggressive early on here. He’s shown an affinity for this track in the past, and it’s possible a return to upstate New York wakes him up.

R8

Dolomite
La Banquera
Better Humor Me

#8 DOLOMITE (8/5): Comes off the bench for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time in her 3-year-old debut. She was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle, comes back in a first-level allowance against state-bred competition, and looms large provided she’s ready to run; #5 LA BANQUERA (4-1): Tried stakes company at second asking and may have bounced off of a sharp first-out score. She earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure in her unveiling, easily the highest such number of any horse in this field, and a return to that form would give her a big chance; #1 BETTER HUMOR ME (8-1): Ran fairly well in a four-start 2023 campaign and has been training steadily for Charlton Baker ahead of her return off of a long layoff. Regular rider Kendrick Carmouche knows her well, and she’s shown an ability to sit back and pass others late, which could come in handy.

R9

Roses for Debra
Kaufymaker
Dontlookbackatall

#10 ROSES FOR DEBRA (8/5): Was a hard-luck second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, and I’m pretty sure Irad Ortiz, Jr., wants that ride back. Horse and rider moved too late that day, and I simply don’t think that scenario plays out again in the Grade 3 Caress; #4 KAUFYMAKER (9/2): Did a lot of the dirty work up front in the Intercontinental, which was her first start in nine months. Given the long layoff and fast pace, I thought she ran very well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s once again the one to catch late; #8 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (10-1): Hasn’t finished outside the top two since 2022 and comes in off of back-to-back scores in listed stakes races. This is a class test, and Irad hops off to ride my top choice, but Joel Rosario riding for Christophe Clement isn’t exactly a bad thing.

R10

Kid Kreesa
Dakota Country
Koru

#5 KID KREESA (20-1): Is a wacky pick in a Thursday finale where I simply don’t have much of a strong opinion. However, in a race without much other gate speed, this one has shown early interest, and I think there’s a chance he goes early without much competition and forgets to stop; #12 DAKOTA COUNTRY (5/2): Drops in for a tag and may be talented enough to overcome the terrible outside draw. His last-out effort was a solid second against maiden special weight foes, and the recent bullet drill hints that he’s doing well; #7 KORU (7/2): Was fourth in the race my second choice exits and adds blinkers for Chad Brown. His two-back effort wasn’t a bad one, and that day’s winner came right back to win at next asking. The question is, is there enough pace signed on to set up for this one’s late kick?

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,094.75

Sunday was an example of a good day to play the Grand Slam. I had a strong opinion in the payoff leg and left a few short prices off of my ticket. Those short prices didn’t hit the board in the opening three legs, which knocked out plenty of players.

As a result, my $18 ticket had a $1 will-pay of about $118 to my single, which went off at odds of 2-1. By playing the Grand Slam, though, I was able to significantly improve my potential payoff.

This didn’t wind up hitting, as Rocketeer was one of six second-place finishes by top picks on Sunday. At a minimum, though, it’s a reminder about the value of playing the right wagers at the right times, even if they’re not necessarily the glamorous ones.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the feature, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. It’s the seventh of nine on the card, and it houses my best bet of the day, #4 CLEARLY UNHINGED. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on her in hopes that we get the 5-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Clearly Unhinged, Race 7
Longshot: Leon Blue, Race 2

R1

Macaw
Two Tons of Fun
Shakin the Belle

#2 MACAW (4/5): Will be a popular pick in the Wednesday lid-lifter on a significant class drop in his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. The price doesn’t excite me, but neither does this field, and anything close to his two and three-back efforts would likely make him very tough to beat; #1 TWO TONS OF FUN (9/2): Drops in for a tag after a failed turf experiment last time out. His two prior outings downstate weren’t terrible, and perhaps the shallower waters will wake him up; #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE (5-1): Has hit the board in his last three outings, all against similar stock, and figures to be on or near the lead from the jump. Flavien Prat has gotten to know him well over his last few starts, and he’s off to a flying start at the meet.

R2

Leon Blue
Army Proud
Pay the Juice

#5 LEON BLUE (10-1): Hammered for $100,000 earlier this year and has been working very well ahead of his unveiling. He’s kin to multiple stakes winner Allure of Money, and given the likely namesake (late trainer Leon “Blue” Blusiewicz), this would be a very popular winner; #9 ARMY PROUD (6-1): Debuts for Joe Sharp, whose first-out numbers aren’t great but get much better if you solely focus on debuting turf runners. His dam, Jc’s Shooting Star, was a New York stalwart, and this son of Army Rule has a right to be a runner; #7 PAY THE JUICE (7/2): Sold for $200,000 in March and has been working steadily for Shug McGaughey. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and while this barn tends to be patient with young horses, there’s reason to think he’s well-meant first time out.

R3

Malu
Chasing Daylight
Echo in Eternity

#7 MALU (9/2): Was a runaway winner here just a week ago and wheels right back first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s done well with that move in the past. Toss the two-back, two-turn clunker at Churchill, and her record looks far better; #9 CHASING DAYLIGHT (9/5): Will likely go favored here, but she hits me as the type of chalk you’re supposed to go against. She’s winless in six starts this season, the outside draw doesn’t usually work well out of the Wilson chute, and these connections have yet to get going at this meet; #3 ECHO IN ETERNITY (6-1): Returns to dirt after a failed turf try last time out. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back after that, which is encouraging, and she’s run well enough a few times this season to merit consideration in deeper exotics.

R4

Big Ego
Stanley Rough
Janssen

#1 BIG EGO (6/5): Could continue a big day for the Linda Rice barn, as she’ll saddle another short-priced runner here. He chased a much-the-best winner here last month, looks like the main speed, and should be able to capitalize on an inside draw out of the chute; #8 STANLEY ROUGH (10-1): Was never a factor last time out, but ignore that race and his form looks much better than his likely price. His two-back effort was a solid one, and against an uninspiring field for the level, a similar type of run could get him a big check; #9 JANSSEN (6-1): Looks like the only other possible speed in the race, aside from the chalk. Turf clearly isn’t what he wants, judging by the last-out clunker, and he ran second in three straight races at this level earlier this year.

R5

Andy Cant (MTO)
Sanderson
Scat Tu Tap

#8 SANDERSON (7/2): Was pretty highly-regarded last season, when his connections tried him in the Central Park at Aqueduct. The drop in for a $50,000 tag is curious, but he had every right to need his 2024 debut last month, and this barn is scorching at the moment; #6 SCAT TU TAP (3-1): Probably went just a bit too long last time out and gets both a shorter distance and a class drop here. If he can bring his Gulfstream Park form to upstate New York, he’ll have a big shot; #7 FUNNY UNCLE (10-1): Has a right to improve on turf in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. His pedigree is all-turf, and his only try on it was quite a while ago. His dirt form carrying over to the lawn would give him a chance at a nice price.

R6

Cinderella’s Cause (MTO)
Overacting
Spooky Lady

#7 OVERACTING (7/2): Wanted no part of an off-the-turf race last time out and goes back to her preferred surface here. Her 2024 debut was easily her best race yet, and further improvement third off the bench for Chad Brown would make her a handful; #3 SPOOKY LADY (3-1): Is a consistent sort that should be forwardly-placed beneath Flavien Prat. She was a close-up third last time out against similar company, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #5 SPINNING COLORS (6-1): Returns after a break of more than 10 months, and she got pretty sharp last summer before going to the sidelines. One of those races was a win at this route, and the presence of jockey John Velazquez is encouraging.

R7

Clearly Unhinged
Munnys Gold
Accede

#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED (5-1): Is 2-for-2 this season after a trainer switch to Steve Asmussen. One of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill. She seems to have only improved since a runner-up finish here in last season’s Grade 1 Test, and she may provide value in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; #8 MUNNYS GOLD (2-1): Cruised home over a much weaker field here last month and dives back into deeper waters. Her best race could win this, sure, but it’s worth noting she’s 4-for-4 with Lasix, 0-for-3 without it, and will be a very short price against some heavy-hitting female sprinters; #1 ACCEDE (4-1): Is another that has progressed at age four, and she’ll be looking for her fourth straight victory here. She comes in off of a gutty win in a Grade 2 downstate, and a similar effort likely gets her a check here.

R8

Mystic Night (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Kalik

#2 BOURBON DAY (9/2): Ships in after five wins in his last 10 starts, including a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Prat hopping aboard is absolutely a plus, especially given his history of success for this barn (one of the highest-percentage outfits in the country); #8 KALIK (3-1): Won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge a season ago but hasn’t come close to those heights since. His last outing was certainly against better horses, and runner-up Major Dude came back to win over the weekend, but this drop is an alarming one, even by the standards of an aggressive barn that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box; #11 PAROS (7/2): Draws an absolutely terrible post but is talented enough to merit consideration. His last-out win against similar was solid, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown (especially if jockey Jose Ortiz can find a way to save ground).

R9

Lucky and Gorgeous
Lu’s Redemption
Saving Memories

#4 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (7/2): Finally got to run on turf last time out and relished the new surface. She was second behind a much-the-best winner that day, Prat rides back, and any sort of progression would give her a big chance in the nightcap; #7 LU’S REDEMPTION (4-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, which isn’t as big a drop in a state-bred race as it is against open company but is still a notable class move. Her two efforts downstate weren’t necessarily bad, and she doesn’t have to move forward all that much; #10 SAVING MEMORIES (10-1): Doesn’t have the best form on paper, but was just three lengths behind my top pick last time out. Another far-outside draw certainly doesn’t help, but if you’re going price-shopping, it’s not like a three-length reversal on one of the favorites is totally out of the question.

BANKROLL

In lieu of something timely and witty (since I’ll be in Colorado through Monday), my bankroll section will focus much more on ticket construction advice.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: The Grand Slam can be a very fun wager when you have a strong lean in the payoff leg. I do on Sunday, as #6 ROCKETEER is my best bet of the card.

In an attempt to extract some value, I’ll play a $1 Grand Slam ticket starting in the seventh that goes as follows: 5,7,8 with 3,11 with 1,3,7 with 6. I’ll also have a $12 win ticket on Rocketeer as well, since it’s likely he’ll be the second choice and not the favorite (which hits me as an opportunity for an overlay).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Rocketeer, Race 10
Longshot: Kreesa, Race 3

R1

L’Imperator
Pickanumber
Abaan

#7 L’IMPERATOR (5/2): Broke through to win a Grade 1 downstate last time out (one that was supposed to be held here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but got washed out). He’s proven without Lasix, seems to be in top form, and gets a few pounds from the likely favorite; #6 PICKANUMBER (5/2): Turned into a stakes horse overseas and most recently thumped 16 other jump horses by 15 lengths. If he brings his European form stateside for this high-percentage outlet, that could be good enough to top this classy bunch; #5 ABAAN (9/5): Is on a four-race win streak, including a few wins over my top selection. He carries this field’s top weight assignment, though, and must race over hurdles without Lasix for the first time. I respect him, but at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him in a fascinating renewal of the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick.

R2

Broughty Ferry
Enigmatic
Yo Puedo

#4 BROUGHTY FERRY (6-1): Has a record that looks much better if you draw lines through her clunkers on turf. Do that, and you have four top-two finishes in five dirt starts, and she ran very well to just miss last time out at Churchill Downs; #1 ENIGMATIC (9/5): Will likely go favored in here after an easy score in an off-the-turf race downstate. Yes, the runner-up came back to win, but that was in another off-the-turf event. Given this one’s prior history in two-turn races, I think she may be overbet; #6 YO PUEDO (9/2): Has come back running this season with two seconds in Kentucky. She’s shown plenty of early zio, and she should be prominent early in a race without much other proven gate speed.

R3

Aaraj (MTO)
Kreesa
Devil in Disguise

#2 KREESA (15-1): Has run well here twice, both times against horses probably better than what he faces in this restricted claiming event. In a race with many horses that don’t seem to want to win, he has local form and has shown an interest in passing others late. Given his likely price, that’s enough for me; #10 DEVIL IN DISGUISE (7/2): Is a very, very tricky read. He won his debut in March and was less than 5-1 in a $150,000 stakes race. He comes back for a $40,000 tag without Irad Ortiz, Jr., up, and while his best race crushes these, there sure seem to be several large red flags; #5 JAVA BUZZ (9/2): Hasn’t run since March of 2023 and returns for Linda Rice, who trained him back in 2022. If he gets back to that form, he’s got a big shot, but that’s no small “if” given the layoff and this outfit’s recent cold spell with turf sprinters.

R4

Jitterbug
Past Tense
Ms Sedona

#4 JITTERBUG (5/2): Continues adding distance and exits a close-up fourth, one where she may have been a bit too forwardly-placed early on. Joel Rosario returns to ride for Christophe Clement, and I’m expecting her to sit back and make one big run; #7 PAST TENSE (3-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits and hasn’t done a heck of a lot wrong in her career. That last-out effort was probably a career-best effort, and a repeat could see her graduate here; #9 MS SEDONA (7/2): Has had gate issues in all three starts to date, which makes the rider switch to Luis Saez very interesting. He’s one of the best gate jockeys in the business, and if anyone can give this one a smooth beginning, it’s probably him.

R5

Shotgun Hottie
Raging Sea
Venti Valentine

#1 SHOTGUN HOTTIE (3/2): Has always been a force when she’s right, and the red-hot Cherie Devaux barn has her on the right track ahead of the Grade 2 Shuvee. She was most recently a tough-luck second in the Fleur De Lis at Churchill behind Scylla, and an argument can be made this is an easier spot; #3 RAGING SEA (7/5): Won the Grade 3 Doubledogdare two back before finishing a one-paced fourth in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on the Belmont undercard. She generally fires the same shot every time out, and first-call rider Flavien Prat certainly knows her very well; #2 VENTI VALENTINE (12-1): Loves Saratoga and is a candidate to sneak into the exotics at a price. Her best races have come against New York-breds, but she should get a pace to chase and it’s encouraging that Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

R6

Playingwithmatches
Briterdayzahead
Whenlovetakesover

#7 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES (8-1): Is protected from being claimed in his first start since December, which is something I always love to see. Many times, that’s a clue that a barn doesn’t want to lose a horse it thinks has talent. Take out his duds over wet tracks, and that record looks considerably better; #2 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5/2): Takes a monstrous drop in class after two “speed and fade” efforts. The inside draw isn’t a bad thing, to be sure, but this seems panicky, and while a return to his mid-2023 form would crush these, his likely price hits me as a bit short…; #5 WHENLOVETAKESOVER (9/5): …which could also be said for this gelding, too. He ran well to cruise in a starter allowance three back at Aqueduct, but his last two efforts have left much to be desired. This is probably the right level, but isn’t 9/5 just too short to stomach?

R7

Wild and Free
Panache
Running Away

#8 WILD AND FREE (3-1): Has plenty of turf pedigree on the bottom and looms large for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Her dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Bolo, and the strong half-mile grass workout on July 1st jumps off the page; #7 PANACHE (8-1): Has an experience edge over most of this field and should improve with a start under her belt and the surface switch. Among others, her dam is kin to a stakes-winning turfer, and this barn’s numbers with second-time starters are strong; #5 RUNNING AWAY (8-1): Debuts going long for Wesley Ward, which isn’t usually an angle I like. However, the pedigree says she wants route races. She’s by Gun Runner and boasts a female family that includes second dam Summerly, who won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

R8

Chasing Daylight (MTO)
Awesome Czech
Bunny Honey

#3 AWESOME CZECH (5-1): Takes a class drop second off the bench after a race that, in all honesty, wasn’t bad. She was fourth in the Wild Applause downstate in her first start since November, and any sort of step forward against state-bred allowance foes likely makes her the one to beat; #11 BUNNY HONEY (12-1): Doesn’t draw a great post, but her two turf routes have been strong and she gets the services of all-world jockey Frankie Dettori. This barn hits at a 28% clip with last-out winners, and while she’ll need to work out a trip, I don’t think she’s without a shot at a nice price; #7 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER (2-1): May go favored in here, but I think she’s very beatable. She was second in a similar spot at Aqueduct in a race that she was almost certainly supposed to win. Her speed figures are flashy, but she’s also 0-for-3 since coming to New York.

R9

Kiss Me Slow
Black Dog
Immersive

#1 KISS ME SLOW (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown off of a bullet four-furlong drill last week. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance that morning, and it hints she could be ready to run to an all-world pedigree that includes third dam My Flag, one of the top female influences of the last 30 years; #3 BLACK DOG (7/2): Debuted with a solid third-place finish in Kentucky and ships here for start number two. She made up some ground in her unveiling, which is nice to see, and that could give jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 IMMERSIVE (5-1): Makes her first start for Brad Cox, and this Godolphin homebred has a right to be a runner. The daughter of Nyquist has been working steadily in the mornings and exits a five-furlong drill from the gate at Churchill.

R10

Rocketeer
Seeking Unity
Black Rain

#6 ROCKETEER (3-1): Comes back to the allowance ranks after fading to finish fourth in the Grade 3 Matt Winn. He gets to run with Lasix in this spot, and given that his only prior try with Lasix doubled as his first start in almost six months, I’m anticipating a career-best performance; #4 SEEKING UNITY (8-1): Has turned a corner since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez earlier this year. I don’t think there’s a ton of early speed signed on here, and that means he and jockey Flavien Prat could get pretty comfortable on or near the lead; #8 BLACK RAIN (8/5): Exits a race out of the Wilson chute where he was a distant second behind an impressive winner. He may go favored, but this is his first two-turn start, the far-outside draw isn’t ideal, and are we sure the horses he beat last time out while chasing a much-the-best winner were all that special?

R11

Shadow Dragon (MTO)
Let’s Go Big Blue
Locke and Key

#7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE (4-1): Returns to his favorite track for the Sunday finale and has plenty of potential to improve. His last-out effort at Aqueduct was a decent third, and I think he may have been a bit too close early on. His preferred trip, over a turf course where he’s never been beaten to the wire, would make him tough to beat; #8 LOCKE AND KEY (12-1): Has been competitive in all six prior 2024 outings and gets a huge rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He seemed to take to turf reasonably well last time out, and he might get more pace to chase here; #9 LIAR’S POKER (6-1): Is 3-for-4 lifetime and 2-for-2 since coming back from a layoff of nearly 18 months. Most recently, he dueled throughout and prevailed against first-level allowance foes, and of the ones with early speed, this is the one that seems most likely to be involved at the end.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,106.50

NYRA can be an easy target sometimes, which is why my criticisms tend to be more muted than some voices you may see or hear elsewhere. However, I need to point out that today’s feature, the Curlin Stakes, does more harm than good to the Saratoga schedule (at least, as it’s presently constructed).

In its current place on the calendar, the Curlin takes away possible contenders from both Monmouth’s Haskell Invitational and Saratoga’s Jim Dandy. Unmatched Wisdom, Timeout, and Corporate Power wouldn’t be out of place in those races, and would, in fact, offer a stronger betting product with more betting interests.

If the Curlin has to be run, schedule it for Travers Day as an alternative to the Midsummer Derby. I’d rather that race target horses that would be longshots in the Travers, as opposed to contenders in that race’s primary preps.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Off-track, I had a fabulous day exploring Wyoming and Fort Collins, Colorado, with my fiancee. On-track, my stand against The Big Torpedo blew up in my face. I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I gave out an $8 50-cent early Pick Five ticket on this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne,” and I’ll use it here, too. That ticket, which starts in the opener, goes as follows: 1 with 8 with 1 with 1,4,6,8 with 1,6,7,8. In addition, I’ll play a $10 cold Pick Three in the opener using all of my singles. For more on how I structured my ticket, check out the video below!

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Governor Sam, Race 1
Longshot: Joker On Fire, Race 6

R1

Governor Sam
Test Score
No Evidence

#1 GOVERNOR SAM (8/5): Debuted in an ambitious spot, when he pressed a hot pace and finished sixth in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream. That race offers a fees-paid spot in a race at Royal Ascot, which hints they’ve had high hopes for this $275,000 auction buy; #7 TEST SCORE (8-1): Boasts outstanding turf bloodlines on the bottom side of his pedigree and may be worth an underneath look at a price. There’s a chance he needs a race or wants more ground, but the workouts look sharp and he seems well-meant; #8 NO EVIDENCE (5/2): Hammered for $325,000 in April and is by Vekoma, whose offspring have been winning at a staggering rate this season. Joel Rosario rides for Christophe Clement, and this is another that has every right to be a runner.

R2

Dea Matrona
Wings Like Eagles
Alette d’Oro

#8 DEA MATRONA (3-1): Was 9-1 in the Grade 1 Natalma two starts ago and now runs for a $50,000 claiming tag. I think she had every right to need her 2024 debut at Monmouth, though, and that there’s reason to believe she’ll be sharper against a much weaker bunch; #4 WINGS LIKE EAGLES (7/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year, but has been running against allowance foes and runs for a tag for the first time here. She’s been sitting back and making one run in most of her races, but she’s also shown speed at times in her career, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she’s up closer to the pace here; #5 ALETTE D’ORO (12-1): Earned the diploma last time out at Aqueduct and tries winners in a race that doesn’t seem very salty. Frankie Dettori’s presence is interesting, and she may still have room to improve compared to some of her opponents.

R3

Unmatched Wisdom
Corporate Power
Timeout

#1 UNMATCHED WISDOM (4/5): Has yet to be challenged in two tries and looms large in the Curlin. He passed a two-turn test with flying colors last month at Aqueduct, and anything close to what we’ve seen from him to date would make him a real handful; #2 CORPORATE POWER (7/2): Exits a win in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard and figures to be doing his best running late. His sheet also includes a win over Batten Down, who won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby not long ago; #4 TIMEOUT (2-1): Graduated out of the maiden ranks going long at Aqueduct and earned a stylish 95 Beyer Speed Figure. That day’s runner-up, though, didn’t flatter him when he ran back last weekend, and I’m unsure whether or not this one can replicate that type of effort in a much tougher spot.

R4

Commandperformance
Rocco Strong
Yono

#8 COMMANDPERFORMANCE (3-1): Gets a tepid top pick on a significant class drop. His record looks far better if you toss his Oaklawn Park races, which seem a cut below the rest of his efforts. If he channels his back class, he’s got a big shot; #4 ROCCO STRONG (7/2): Was a good second last time out behind a horse that sat a picture-perfect trip and never came back to the field. Rudy Rodriguez claimed him that day, and he’s had plenty of success wheeling horses back quickly; #6 YONO (6-1): Ships in from Kentucky and moves way up if there’s any moisture at all in the track. He’s 3-for-3 over off going, and his fast-track form isn’t too shabby, either.

R5

Our Finest Hour
Schwartz entry
Positive Carry

#8 OUR FINEST HOUR (6-1): Drops in for a tag and flashed a bit of talent earlier this year in Florida. She probably never had a chance sitting behind a slow pace last time out, and the combination of blinkers and Luis Saez means she might be up closer here; #1 NOT GUILTY (9/2): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. She’s by Blame and out of a Tale of the Cat mare, and it helps that trainer Cherie DeVaux has gotten off to a flying start at this stand; #3 POSITIVE CARRY (8/5): Is probably going to be a heavy favorite given the connections and the class drop, but I have my doubts. She’s burned a lot of money over her last several tries, and while it wouldn’t stun me if she won, I think there’s a chance she’s turned into a pack animal. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R6

Joker On Fire
Saratoga Warrior
Chasing Colton

#5 JOKER ON FIRE (6-1): Debuts for Bruce Levine, whose first-time starters have been on a hot streak of late. This son of Practical Joke is kin to Grade 3-placed Shadow Dragon, and his second dam, Jostle, was a Grade 1 winner that’s turned into a very productive female influence; #8 SARATOGA WARRIOR (7/2): Is another debuting runner that has a right to be precocious. Her dam was a stakes-placed 2-year-old, and the work tab looks pretty flashy. If there’s a reservation here, it’s that her large ownership group may make her a shorter price than she probably should be; #2 CHASING COLTON (9/2): Chased next-out Sanford winner Mo Plex in his unveiling downstate and has a right to improve at second asking. John Velazquez sees fit to ride back, and his experience edge over most of this field could prove valuable.

R7

Critical Threat
Emerald Forest
Super Chief

#8 CRITICAL THREAT (6-1): Wired a field of $25,000 claimers downstate and runs for half of that tag here. This may be an equally-strong spot (it IS Saratoga, after all), but another step forward in his second start off the claim for a high-percentage barn would make him the one to catch at a bit of a price; #5 EMERALD FOREST (5/2): Takes a big drop first off the claim by Linda Rice and will do his best running late. He’s shown he can pass horses, which is great, but this is an alarming first-off-the-claim drop by a barn known for moving horses up, not down; #10 SUPER CHIEF (7/2): Makes his first start in New York after spending his entire career to date in California. He ran against The Chosen Vron in the Grade 3 San Carlos two starts ago and was second for a $50,000 tag last time out. His best race could win, but like my projected second choice, I’m wondering why he’s here and not in a higher-level spot.

R8

Roswell
Sam’s Treasure
Wailua

#7 ROSWELL (5/2): Was a good second behind a very classy horse last month during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. She earned a 95 Beyer Speed Figure in that event, and it sure seems like she’s getting better with experience for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott; #4 SAM’S TREASURE (7/2): Has yet to run a clunker in five career outings and was third in the same race my top pick exits. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, but also doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which could come in handy; #2 WAILUA (6-1): Is 2-for-2 coming into this race, which presents a significant class test. Her last-out score at Churchill Downs was a good one, and she could improve in a race that doubles as her second start off of a four-month freshening.

R9

Audacious (MTO)
Root Cause
Any Port

#10 ROOT CAUSE (5/2): Gets significant class relief after a few starts against stakes company last year. One of those tries was a close second in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial. She’s been working steadily for Chad Brown and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., for her first try off the bench; #2 ANY PORT (10-1): Returns to the turf after being thumped in what turned into a match race downstate. Her Tampa Bay Downs turf form earlier this year was strong, and she could sit a dream trip just off of what figures to be a manageable early pace; #9 EPIC MISS JUSTICE (12-1): Almost certainly needed her 2024 debut, which came off a break of nearly a year. She stretches back out to two turns here, and she overcame a slow early pace to win at this route of ground last summer.

R10

Geopolitics
Heart of the Night
Barefoot Disco

#4 GEOPOLITICS (5/2): Has suffered three tough beats in as many career starts, one of which came in stakes company last time out. She comes back into the maiden ranks in the Friday finale, which means she can run with Lasix (always a powerful equipment change); #3 HEART OF THE NIGHT (4-1): Was a good second at this route last month, and it helps her cause that that day’s winner came right back to top first-level allowance foes over the weekend. Her tactical speed is a plus and should ensure she’s in with a chance; #7 BAREFOOT DISCO (10-1): Hasn’t been seen since her debut almost a year ago. That day, she closed well to finish third for a barn whose first-time starters usually aren’t fully cranked. Flavien Prat doesn’t ride for this outfit much, but he’ll have the mount here, and that may mean this filly is live at a price.