BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s only been a month since I was last here, but a lot has happened since then. The summer meet at the Alameda County Fair has come and gone, and I’ve also been fortunate to do a bunch of great stuff with the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s new North American simulcast feed. If you’re up late Saturday or early Sunday, check out closing day at Sha Tin.

Also, I’m officially entering the “tout” world at Winners and Whiners, the site I’ve been working on since coming to Raketech in November. During the Saratoga meet, I’ll have betting strategies for one multi-race bet each day, at $5 per day. Today, it’s a midday double, largely because both races are on dirt and should (I hope…) go with close to the fields we see in the program despite an ominous weather forecast.

If you’re new to this section: Every day, I’ll have bets on Saratoga action, complete with a mythical $1,000 bankroll to draw from. I’ll also have this space to expound on a few things. Let’s get to Opening Day!

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m diving right in with action on the opener. I’ll play $3 exactas using #2 BOLD VICTORY (my longshot of the day) and #5 I AM THE LAW on top of those two, #6 ACCIDENTAL HERO, and #8 ROCCO STRONG. I’ll also box my top two horses (Bold Victory and I Am the Law) in an additional $2 bet, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: All That Magic, Race 4
Longshot: Bold Victory, Race 1

R1

I Am the Law
Bold Victory
Rocco Strong

#5 I AM THE LAW (3-1): Has been running against far, far tougher competition for most of his career and drops way down the class ladder for the summer lid-lifter. Add in that he’s hit the board in nine of 10 starts over wet tracks (with two wins), and he looks like a very legitimate favorite; #2 BOLD VICTORY (20-1): Stretches back out to two turns, which is clearly his preferred route of ground, and should have plenty of speed to run at. There’s a possibility his best days are behind him, but a return to his desired trip, a favorable race shape, and a big price all mean I need to use him; #8 ROCCO STRONG (4-1): Is another with plenty of back class and an affinity for wet tracks. He won very impressively in the mud earlier this year at Aqueduct and has faced stakes or stakes-quality opposition in each of his last four outings.

R2

Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Aspen Grove
Madaket entry

#4 ASPEN GROVE (7/5): Looms very large in the unlikely event this stays on the turf. Draw a line through her dud in the Grade 1 New York last time out, and her career looks far, far better. If we’re still on the grass, this daughter of Justify is strictly the one to beat; MADAKET ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A AVENUE NIEL, who raced well three times last year before going to the sidelines. Her September 2023 allowance score was a good effort, and Joel Rosario sees fit to ride for Christophe Clement; #3 BE YOUR BEST (3-1): Looked like a budding star in 2022, when she won two races here as a 2-year-old (including the P.G. Johnson Stakes). She hasn’t won since, but she drops into the allowance/optional claiming ranks for the first time and could conceivably wake up.

R3

Miss Maximus
Needed
Neigh Jude

#4 MISS MAXIMUS (4-1): Has shown early speed against much better horses and takes a significant drop in class. After her last two outings against straight maidens, she now runs for a tag against state-breds, and I think there’s a chance she gets very comfortable from the jump; #10 NEEDED (5-1): Makes her first start for Linda Rice in this spot, which doubles as her first outing since January. The best race of her career to date was a close-up second in the mud late last year, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to go; #3 NEIGH JUDE (7/2): Finished a distant second downstate last time out and has a history of gate trouble. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Kelly Breen, and perhaps there’s room for improvement in what will be just her fifth lifetime start.

R4

All That Magic
Bustin Bay (MTO)
Madaket entry

#8 ALL THAT MAGIC (8-1): Gets Lasix for the first time in three starts this year, and I’m expecting that to make a major difference. All but one of her six career victories have come with Lasix, and she attracts Luis Saez in her third start off the bench; MADAKET ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A LADY MIA, a filly that showed she can run on soft turf in some of her overseas starts. She’s run just once since October, but that was a solid, winning effort in an allowance at Aqueduct; #4 RUN FOR THE HILLS (2-1): Is another getting Lasix back after a few tries against stakes foes. One of those efforts was a close-up third over yielding going at Churchill Downs, and she’s a contender if they stay on the lawn and a speed duel ensues.

R5

New York Scrappy
Concorde Spirit
Brown Eyed Cat

#1 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (3-1): Had an eventful trip in his debut, when he ran third despite several instances of trouble. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back, and this one goes turf-to-dirt and adds blinkers for a trainer whose runners tend to improve at second asking; #9 CONCORDE SPIRIT (6-1): Was a one-paced third in his unveiling and is another that has a right to take a step forward. This regally-bred son of Uncle Mo is trained by Bill Mott and has several strong workouts on his tab ahead of this event; #7 BROWN EYED CAT (9/2): Is one of two first-time starters trained by Bruce Levine, and he’s got a solid pedigree and back-to-back bullet drills. Add in the presence of jockey Javier Castellano and top off-track influence Stormy Atlantic on the dam’s side, and you’ve got an intriguing horse.

R6

Will Not Be Swayed
Strong State
My Lady Bae

#2 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (7/2): Debuts in the first 2-year-old race of the meet and sports several strong gate works at Keeneland for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. Prat will be aboard, which is another reason to think this daughter of Preakness winner War of Will could be a runner; #1 STRONG STATE (5/2): Had plenty of trouble in her debut last month, where she blew the break but still rallied to finish second. She could certainly improve, but the inside draw is a concern and the pedigree indicates she may want even more distance; #7 MY LADY BAE (12-1): Merits a look at a price given her strong win-early pedigree. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, her second dam won at first asking, and this one has been working consistently for Rob Atras, who boasts a strong 20% win rate with first-time starters.

R7

Speightful Lily (MTO)
Mosienko (MTO)
Solib

#3 SOLIB (4-1): Came from way, way back to be second last time out at a bit of a price. I do think she’s a bit better on dirt (which could come in handy here), but she’s also shown an ability to sprint on turf, and her turf record looks far better if you toss her two route tries here last summer; #7 MARCO T. (3-1): Cleared her first-level allowance condition last time out and has won two of her last three starts. The lone loss came in the Grade 3 Soaring Softly against much better horses, and this is probably the right level; #1 IM JUST KIDDIN (5/2): Is another that probably wants no part of two turns. She’s probably had some issues given just one start since September, but she’s a contender if she’s ready to run (and if this stays on turf).

R8

Just Music (MTO)
Crushed Ice (MTO)
Elle Est Forte

#9 ELLE EST FORTE (7/2): Has run several big races for trainer Ray Handal since being claimed here last summer. Most recently, she was a good second downstate, and if this stays on turf, she gets a tepid top selection; #4 LAKESIDE GETAWAY (5-1): Sure looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. She goes second off the bench here, and the runner-up from her last race came back to win at next asking; #8 MORE MANGO (15-1): Ran a big one to be second against starter allowance foes last time out, when she was 48-1 and led in deep-stretch. She’s run fairly well in a few different turf races, though, so if this stays on, she’s not without a shot.

R9

Blazing Sevens
Classic Catch
Rocket Can

#7 BLAZING SEVENS (7/2): Found the Grade 1 Met Mile way too tough, and while this is a classy optional claimer, the waters are much more shallow here. He gets Lasix back in this spot, and he won the Grade 1 Champagne earlier in his career over the type of off track he may see here; #9 CLASSIC CATCH (6-1): Is a grinder in a race with plenty of early speed, and the race shape may work to his benefit. His last-out effort at Churchill was a heartbreaking second, and he doesn’t have to move forward much (if at all) to be a major player; #6 ROCKET CAN (9/2): Won last year’s Grade 3 Holy Bull and went on to run ninth in the Kentucky Derby. We’ve only seen him once since, but that was a professional score at Oaklawn Park, and he’s another possible beneficiary of the likely frontrunner-heavy race shape.

R10

Viggiedal
Long Neck Paula
Carmen’s Candy Jar

#10 VIGGIEDAL (9/2): Never looked like a loser in her debut, where this $350,000 auction purchase went wire-to-wire and romped by five lengths. She draws well in the Schuylerville Stakes and could give trainer Steve Asmussen his fourth win in this event; #9 LONG NECK PAULA (8-1): Was the likely favorite in the Astoria last month but scratched due to a bizarre set of circumstances. She’s back, has worked well ahead of this race, and her absence from the previous race may, bizarrely, mean a bigger price here; #6 CARMEN’S CANDY JAR (6-1): Showed some grit in her unveiling, when she prevailed downstate for powerhouse connections. The pedigree says the stretchout in distance absolutely won’t be a problem, and it’s notable when you see a first-time starter pass other horses late.

R11

Houlton (MTO)
Kick a Buck
Vincita

#9 KICK A BUCK (9/5): Is strictly the one to beat if the Thursday finale stays on the turf. He’s been running against straight maidens to this point in his career, and while his last-out dud is concerning, anything close to his two or three-back efforts likely puts him in the winner’s circle; #3 VINCITA (12-1): Tries turf for the first time here and is bred to love it. The connections have tried to run him on the grass multiple times, and that’s often a clue. Add in that he’s not facing any world-beaters, and the 12-1 price looks enticing; #2 GET IT TO MATTHEW (20-1): Is another trying turf for the first time, and while I’m not sure he wants two turns, the pedigree is all-grass. This one is by Mendelssohn and out of a Tapit mare, and he could be sitting on a move forward second off the bench.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $243

As we finish out an incredible week of racing at Saratoga, here’s a reminder: Enjoy things like this. Not every track is celebrating right now.

Golden Gate Fields, about a 20-minute drive from my home in Northern California, runs its last card today. For multiple reasons, this did not need to happen. However, a venue that once welcomed legends like Noor and Citation, plus more contemporary stars like Lost in the Fog, Shared Belief, and Rombauer, is set to close up shop as 1/ST Racing further consolidates its business to Gulfstream and Santa Anita.

If you want to read more about the consequences of this move, Dan Ross and Steve Anderson wrote fantastic articles for the TDN and Daily Racing Form, respectively. For now, one last word before I reconnect with you in July: If racing fails in California, it can fail anywhere. Support what the Northern California fairs are doing, this summer and beyond, and help us protect a circuit that deserves far, far better than it’s getting.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: After a lot of second-place finishes by top picks in the pick box, Measured Time saved the day. My $36 Grand Slam ticket connected for $125.60, and a $14 win bet returned $57.40.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got two plays for this section before we close up shop for a month. First, I’ll punch a cold $20 double starting in the third with #1 ANTONIO OF VENICE and finishing with #6 SPEIGHTFUL LILY in the fourth. Next, we’ll go to the seventh, where I’ll have a $20 win bet on #10 ROZAY SUMMER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sports betting promos on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Rozay Summer, Race 7
Longshot: Sunday Girl, Race 11

R1

Awakened
Freddy Flintshire
Abaan

#4 AWAKENED (9/2): Comes back to Saratoga, the site of his greatest triumph. He won last year’s Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard at this route, and unlike many in here, he’s shown he doesn’t need Lasix in order to run well; #6 FREDDY FLINTSHIRE (7/2): Makes his first start in 11 months but has shown an affinity for this course. Trainer Keri Brion is one of the top conditioners on the jump circuit, and this one will do his best running late; #5 ABAAN (5/2): Switched to the steeplechase ranks last summer and has reeled off four wins in a row working his way up the class ladder. This is another step up, and the lack of Lasix is a concern, but perhaps he’s a star on the rise.

R2

Dubb entry
Emerald Forest
Kneedeepinsnow

DUBB ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1A EXCELLENT TIMING, who chased much better horses in a stakes race last time out and drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections. He seems like the controlling speed, and I think he’s a wire-to-wire threat; #2 EMERALD FOREST (5-1): Is another class-dropper, and in this case, he’s coming back to what’s probably the right level. His last two have come against tough optional claiming foes, but his last three races against straight claimers have been very good and Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back; #7 KNEEDEEPINSNOW (3-1): Was once one of the better sprinters in the country and ran second in the 2022 Vanderbilt behind Jackie’s Warrior. However, he hasn’t won in nearly two years, and while his rest race crushes these, the presence of just one workout since his last start in mid-April is a bit of a red flag.

R3

Antonio of Venice
Elysian Meadows
Doc Sullivan

#1 ANTONIO OF VENICE (6/5): Sure seems like the controlling speed in the Mike Lee and comes in off of two impressive victories at this level downstate. When this barn gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there, and assuming things stay dry, I think he’ll be tough to beat; #3 ELYSIAN MEADOWS (6-1): Has run against open stakes company in his last three starts and gets a bit of class relief. He also cuts back to one turn, which is probably his best game, and he’d benefit if someone keeps my top pick honest early on; #4 DOC SULLIVAN (5/2): Comes in off a win at Aqueduct and chased my top pick two back at this level. Castellano rides back off the last-out score, and perhaps he’s improving with experience, but he seems like a better horse with Lasix, and that makes his likely price a bit tough to swallow.

R4

Speightful Lily
Scoring Chance
Mysaria

#6 SPEIGHTFUL LILY (1-1): Was very impressive first time out and didn’t run badly in her first try against winners. She’s been training well since shipping up to Saratoga, and I don’t think she runs up against any world-beaters in this spot; #8 SCORING CHANCE (8-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs, a distance she showed a fondness for in her first-out score at Aqueduct. I think you can make some excuses for each of her last two tries, and Flavien Prat hopping aboard is a big plus; #9 MYSARIA (20-1): Exits a failed turf experiment that may drive her price up considerably. Her dirt races downstate haven’t been terrible, and a repeat of either the two-back or three-back efforts would give her a shot to hit the board at a big number.

R5

Dancinginthepark
Az U Chase Me
Malibu Margarita

#7 DANCINGINTHEPARK (8-1): Gets a reluctant nod in a race where I truly don’t love any runner. Unlike many in here that have had lots of chances, this one is a first-time starter. He’s got some bottom-side turf pedigree, and the presence of John Velazquez may be a clue; #5 AZ U CHASE ME (9/2): Comes back to the NY-bred ranks, where he ran some of his best races late last year. His expedition to Florida didn’t go well, but this sure seems like the right level and he’s shown he can pass others late; #2 MALIBU MARGARITA (10-1): Tried to get on turf last time out, but the race was moved to the main track. He’s a son of Malibu Moon and a Frost Giant mare, so there’s reason to think he’ll like the grass, and Prat riding back is a positive.

R6

Drake’s Passage
Dr Ardito
Sheriff Bianco

#2 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (7/5): Goes second off the bench in the Commentator and should sit an ideal trip. There isn’t much early speed in here at all, and that means the winner of last year’s Albany at this route could get very comfortable in the opening stages; #3 DR ARDITO (5-1): Comes back to the NY-bred ranks after a dud in the Grade 3 Westchester against much better horses. He won last year’s Evan Shipman out of the chute, and I’d like him a lot more if there was more early zip in this field; #1 SHERIFF BIANCO (6-1): Hasn’t won in a long, long time, but has hit the board in 25 of 30 lifetime starts and probably needed his last start (which was shorter than his preferred trip). He was second in last year’s Empire Classic at this distance, and his usual effort could get him a big piece of this.

R7

Rozay Summer
Rainingatthebeach
Tour Jete

#10 ROZAY SUMMER (4-1): Debuted with a fourth-place finish at Tampa Bay Downs and takes a big drop in class at second asking for Christophe Clement. She goes from an open maiden special weight event to a state-bred maiden claimer, and if she’s ready to run off a three-month break, she’s strictly the one to beat; #8 RAININGATTHEBEACH (10-1): Responded to a drop in class when second in an off-the-turf event last month. She’s had some gate issues, but the blinkers go on, Prat stays on, and perhaps she’ll move forward if this stays on the lawn; #6 TOUR JETE (6-1): Ran well to be second in her debut, then lost all chance at the break in a $500,000 stakes race. She hasn’t been seen since and comes back in a maiden claimer, which is puzzling, but the turf pedigree is certainly there, Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been attracted to ride, and she’s got every chance if she’s ready to run.

R8

Fingal’s Cave
Bustin Bay
Venti Valentine

#8 FINGAL’S CAVE (2-1): Gets two things she’ll appreciate in the Critical Eye: Class relief and two turns. She’s been running against graded stakes competition going shorter downstate and is 2-for-2 at this route. Add in a recent five-furlong bullet drill, and I think she’s a formidable favorite; #9 BUSTIN BAY (4-1): Likes the Spa and is an easy horse to root for given her consistency and longevity. She’s won 13 of 43 starts, banked more than $740,000 in career earnings, and has plenty of tactical speed. I’m not sure two turns is quite what she wants, but she does have a win at this distance; #2 VENTI VALENTINE (3-1): Hasn’t won since October, but ran second in the Serena’s Song at Monmouth against open company and won a stakes race here last summer. This is another that seems to run pretty much the same race every time out, and that sort of effort gives her a chance in here.

R9

The Paddock Pastor
Miracle Mike
Slapintheface

#2 THE PADDOCK PASTOR (6-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, given that it was his first start since November. He should get much more pace to chase in this spot, and Irad rides back when he likely had several options in this wide-open allowance event; #3 MIRACLE MIKE (10-1): Got his nose down last time out and looks much better if you simply toss all the dirt races. He’ll benefit from the likely race shape, and he’s another that should be heard from in the late stages; #5 SLAPINTHEFACE (8-1): Hasn’t run since November, but turned in several sharp efforts in 2023 and has enough tactical speed to sit a stalking trip. That could give him first run going into the far turn, and that would make him the one to catch.

R10

Tough Street (MTO)
Silver Skillet
Overacting

#1 SILVER SKILLET (2-1): Won here twice a year ago and gets reunited with Joel Rosario, who piloted her to both of those victories. I can excuse her 2024 debut easily enough, as that was her first race since a competitive fourth in the Grade 3 Pebbles; #8 OVERACTING (9/2): Has yet to run a bad race in four lifetime starts and goes second off the bench for Chad Brown, who excels with similar stock. Her 2024 debut downstate was a winning one, and a step forward from that would give her a big chance; #5 MARVELOUS MAUDE (5/2): Was a distant third against open company last time out and returns to NY-bred competition here. She’ll take plenty of money, and she does have a win over this turf course, but I can’t help thinking she’s just a bit better downstate.

R11

Sunday Girl
Caldwell Luvs Gold
La Banquera

#4 SUNDAY GIRL (8-1): Is a perfect 2-for-2 to this point and has yet to be seriously challenged. The third-place finisher from her last-out score in an April stakes race came back to win, and I think this one presents some real value at or near the morning line price; #3 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD (6-1): Started her career with two wins at the Spa last summer, and I’m drawing a line straight through the last-out turf experiment. She’s a dirt horse, and she’ll likely get plenty of pace to chase over her favorite track; #5 LA BANQUERA (4-1): Dueled throughout in a swiftly-run first-out score and takes a significant class jump here. However, I like seeing a horse show heart on debut, and she figures to once again be prominent early.

R12

Spirit of St Louis
City Man
Conman

#1 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (8/5): Has been managed very well by his connections en route to six wins and two seconds in eight tries. He comes in on a three-race win streak, including one against open company, and he’s a logical favorite in the race named for this handicapper’s old stomping grounds, the Kingston; #9 CITY MAN (5/2): Hasn’t been since in almost eight months, but he’s shown he can run well fresh and that he loves this turf course. He’s a multiple graded stakes winner with Christophe Clement and Joel Rosario in his corner, and he merits respect; #7 CONMAN (30-1): Is a contender to blow up the exotics at a big price. He almost certainly needed the last-out try at Aqueduct and won an open stakes race at Woodbine last summer. John Velazquez rides for Mark Casse, and if you’re looking for a longshot to throw into exactas and trifectas, I think this is the one you want.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $160

I host a podcast with my good friend Josh Rodriguez over on the “On the Wrong Lead” network. It’s called “Drank’n Champagne,” and this week, we took a look at Friday’s late Pick Four sequence.

I gave out a pretty cheap play there, and if you’re looking for extensive analysis of that sequence, you can get it by watching on YouTube or listening wherever you get your podcasts.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Romantic Charmer was rank throughout in the eighth. I dropped $40.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: My late Pick Four starts a bit later than I’d like for the purposes of this section, and I want to make sure my editors don’t miss print deadlines before Saturday’s card. As such, I’ll focus on the eighth race and my best bet of the day. That’s #6 EL CAPI, who hits me as a potential monster. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I’ll also use him to finish off a cold $20 double starting in the seventh with #4 MUNNYS GOLD.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sports betting promos on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: El Capi, Race 8
Longshot: Addicted to You, Race 3

R1

Rolling Along
Trulli Warrior
Pentathlon

#8 ROLLING ALONG (6-1): Has experience, unlike many other top contenders here, and exits a swiftly-run race at this distance over Woodbine’s synthetic surface. This barn excels with second-time starters, and this one adds both Lasix and blinkers in the Friday lid-lifter; #1 TRULLI WARRIOR (7/2): Is one of two first-time starters trained by Todd Pletcher, and this one’s bred to be a runner. This son of Curlin has a very strong bottom-side pedigree, too, and several of his recent works indicate he’s got plenty of talent; #3 PENTATHLON (12-1): Hasn’t run since October but caught two very tough fields before going to the sidelines. He improved considerably at second asking, is working consistently for Shug McGaughey, and could be a contender at a price if he’s ready to run.

R2

Arthur’s Ride
Leading Contender
Tapit Shoes

#1 ARTHUR’S RIDE (3-1): Comes in off of an absolute clunker that was too bad to be true. Maybe he bounced off of a fantastic two-back effort, maybe he just hated the slop, but either way, I think he comes back to form stretching out to a distance he’s bred to relish; #5 LEADING CONTENDER (5/2): Gets a big rider switch to Flavien Prat and generally fires the same shot every time out. That’s been enough to get him seven top-two finishes in nine career starts, but only two of those races are wins, and he’s burned a lot of money over the course of his career; #9 TAPIT SHOES (8-1): Came off the bench to top first-level allowance foes at Churchill in his first start since August. He’s listed as a first-time gelding in this spot, and this son of Tapit is another that’s bred to enjoy this 10-furlong trip.

R3

Storming Chrome (MTO)
Liar’s Poker
Addicted to You

#14 LIAR’S POKER (7/2): Needs two scratches to draw in but is a major player if he does. His lone misfire to date came in a stakes race against much tougher horses, and I think he’ll be fit to fire a big shot in his second start off a long break; #5 ADDICTED TO YOU (8-1): Is one of several exiting the same race on May 4th, and I think he ran very well to be third that day. There was no early speed in there, yet he came flying late to be beaten less than a length in his first start since November. There seems to be more speed signed on here, which should help him; #8 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Has a troubling aversion to winning and is just 1-for-23 in his career. However, he’s run second eight times, goes second off the bench for a strong barn, and ran well here twice a season ago against similar stock.

R4

Notah
Debate
Lucency

#4 NOTAH (9/2): Hasn’t run a bad race in any of his last five tries, and he’s never missed the board in four starts at this seven-furlong distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and I think he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #8 DEBATE (3-1): Cuts back to one turn after a failed two-turn experiment last month. His two and three-back efforts going a mile at Aqueduct were fine, and a return to form makes him a major player; #9 LUCENCY (7/2): Just missed in a similar spot downstate and has every right to contend in this one. This is his second start since being claimed by a low-percentage outfit, though, so while his best race could win this, it’s fair to wonder if a regression is in the cards.

R5

Cees Get Degrees (MTO)
Boat’s a Rockin
Mischievous Angel

#5 BOAT’S A ROCKIN (8-1): Exits a much tougher spot on the Preakness undercard where he set the pace over a boggy turf course in his first start since November. He gets Lasix back for this one, and while I don’t think we’ll quite get the 8-1 morning line price, the last-out clunker may inflate his odds just a bit; #10 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (4-1): Came back running off the bench to top first-level allowance foes in his first run since August. Prat sees fit to ride back, and his lone loss to date came in a Grade 2 here last year, one won by the classy Carl Spackler; #3 CLEAR THE AIR (7/2): Ran second behind the ageless Bound for Nowhere last time out, and his two-back score in a turf sprint at Keeneland was sharp. This turned out to be a very tough spot for the level, but a repeat of that April 21 effort would put him right there.

R6

Top Conor (MTO)
Spirit Prince
Time Song

#6 SPIRIT PRINCE (7/2): Has a significant back class edge over most of these and will be a formidable foe if he’s ready off the bench. All but one of his five starts last year came against stakes foes, and he won one of those races (the Central Park at Aqueduct); #4 TIME SONG (12-1): Faltered as an 8/5 favorite in a stakes race at Gulfstream but gets some class relief in this spot. He also gets Lasix back, and his lone race with Lasix is by far his best effort; #9 ARMY OFFICER (9/2): Has taken steps forward in each career start and exits a strong second at Churchill last month. He’s got some tactical speed and attracts Frankie Dettori, who doesn’t ride for this barn that much.

R7

Munnys Gold
Sam’s Treasure
Roswell

#4 MUNNYS GOLD (6/5): Is probably the most likely winner on the Friday card. We haven’t seen her since a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Test, and she returns in a first-level allowance where she’ll be allowed to run with Lasix; #8 SAM’S TREASURE (8-1): Ran well in her 2024 debut, when she was second behind a next-out winner in her first start since September. Unlike many others in here, she can stalk the pace and pass others late, which could prove to be very valuable; #3 ROSWELL (5-1): Hasn’t run a poor race to date and cuts back in distance after 7 1/2 furlongs proved to be just a bit too far. Her two prior efforts at Gulfstream Park were solid, and a repeat of those performances would likely get her a piece of this one.

R8

El Capi
Brown entry
One Giant Leap

#6 EL CAPI (4-1): Looked like a monster in his unveiling, when he crushed an overmatched field at Aqueduct and earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure. We haven’t seen him since then, but he’s working steadily for a barn that can be pretty patient, and if he’s right, look out; BROWN ENTRY (5/2): I prefer #1 GENERAL PARTNER, who was second in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne before faltering in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s been working well ahead of his seasonal debut, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this was a prep for a much bigger spot later this summer; #10 ONE GIANT LEAP (15-1): Likely lost his 2024 debut at the starting gate, as he was a non-factor as a 6/5 favorite after a slow break. His late-2023 form, however, was pretty strong, and I’m expecting, well, one giant leap forward for very capable connections at a juicy price.

R9

Roses for Debra
Gal in a Rush
Love Reigns

#6 ROSES FOR DEBRA (6/5): Came back running with a win in the Grade 3 Giant’s Causeway and is a very logical favorite in the Grade 2 Intercontinental. She went 2-for-2 here last year, including a win in the Grade 3 Caress, and seems the most likely winner and new Intercontinental Champion; #8 GAL IN A RUSH (10-1): Returned with a strong second in the License Fee downstate and got pretty good last year before going to the sidelines. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, who may very well run 1-2 in here; #10 LOVE REIGNS (3-1): Chased my top pick last time and figures to get plenty of pace to run at in her second start off the bench. She’s shown plenty of talent in the past, and this will be her first start without a layoff line in the form since mid-2022.

R10

Gina Romantica
Chili Flag
Coppice

#3 GINA ROMANTICA (3-1): Is one of five Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 1 Just A Game, and she cuts back to her preferred one-mile trip second off the bench. Unlike last time, in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, she should have some pace to chase, which is a must given her late-running style; #6 CHILI FLAG (4-1): Notched her third win in the last four starts in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile. Toss her dud three back at Gulfstream, and you have a classy mare that hasn’t done much wrong at all over the last year and a half; #4 COPPICE (3-1): Was a close-up second behind my second choice last time out at Churchill, and she might have needed that race off a long break. She ran with the likes of Inspiral and Nashwa overseas last year, and improvement is logical second off the bench.

R11

Didia
War Like Goddess
American Sonja

#3 DIDIA (9/2): Stretches back out to her preferred trip and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 1 New York. She’s proven at this distance and should be able to sit an ideal stalking trip, which would give her first run turning for home; #10 WAR LIKE GODDESS (4-1): Has been a stalwart of the turf the last several years and makes her first start since last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. She’s never been out of the exacta in five local starts, and she’s a major player if she’s ready to run; #5 AMERICAN SONJA (10-1): Ships in from Europe and attracts Frankie Dettori, which is always enough to merit consideration. She most recently captured a Group 3 in France, but she’s run fairly well stateside, too, having finished second in last year’s Grade 3 Saratoga Oaks.

R12

Thorpedo Anna
Just F Y I
Power Squeeze

#9 THORPEDO ANNA (8/5): Comes in off of an authoritative score in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and looms large despite a tricky outside draw. She’s trained forwardly since that performance, and if she’s right, she’ll once again be a handful in the Grade 1 Acorn; #4 JUST F Y I (5/2): Gave my top pick a scare at the top of the stretch in the Oaks before finishing a best-of-the-rest second. This is her third start off the layoff, and the local drills are certainly eye-catching; #2 POWER SQUEEZE (12-1): Was never comfortable in the Oaks, where she broke next-to-last and had to navigate a sloppy track she may not have cared for. Prior to that clunker, she reeled off four straight wins, and the jockey switch to Javier Castellano could help her get back on track.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

First and foremost, it’s fantastic to be back. I’m grateful to the management of The Saratogian and Raketech for allowing me to do this again, and I’m excited to get back into the swing of things during an exciting, history-making week in upstate New York.

If you’re new to this, a quick crash course: In addition to selections and analysis for every race, I’ve got a section where I can expound on money management and, hopefully, parlay my picks and thoughts into smart bets that make money. If the top-three picks are Handicapping 101, this is Handicapping 201. There’s no way to give picks and analysis that pleases everyone (thanks, horse racing Twitter!), but this way reaches wide groups of people with varying levels of experience, and it’s one that we’ve seen works over time.

For the summer meet, I’ll have a $1,000 bankroll to use over the 40-day schedule. I’m treating this as a separate endeavor and giving myself $200 over the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. Let’s see what we can do.

THURSDAY’S PLAYS: We’ll head to the eighth race, where I think #1 ROMANTIC CHARMER has a big chance to improve in his first turf start against a field that includes multiple horses coming off of long layoffs. I’ll key that one in $5 exactas above and below #6 FILM ACADEMY, #7 ALL GOOD HERE, and #9 MISSION HILL, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on him. As a reminder, bets in turf races assume those events stay on they grass, and surface changes cancel all tickets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Three Echoes, Race 2
Longshot: Romantic Charmer, Race 8

R1

Drunk On Sake
Bookworm
Caesar’s Ghost

#5 DRUNK ON SAKE (8-1): Didn’t do much running in his career debut, but he takes a significant drop at second asking, adds both Lasix and blinkers, and could improve going to the turf. His pedigree says he’ll like the lawn, and that may be enough against a suspect group; #6 BOOKWORM (7/5): Will be a significant favorite, but I have my doubts. This is a strong barn, but the outfit is 0-for-12 with first-out maiden claimers going back to mid-July of 2022, and seeing a $150,000 purchase debut for a $40,000 tag is a red flag; #12 CAESAR’S GHOST (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but he ran reasonably well in three turf races against maiden special weight foes. The layoff is a concern, but anything close to his last-out performance at Kentucky Downs would give him a big shot.

R2

Three Echoes
Touchy
Classic of Course

#5 THREE ECHOES (5/2): Got a lot of experience in his debut, when he overcame considerable trouble to win at first asking. That’s not something 2-year-olds often do, and I think he’s very well-meant coming into the Tremont; #7 TOUCHY (2-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best first-out trainers in the game. His works are strong, and there’s every reason to think he’s well-meant, but given his pedigree, I wonder if he wants a bit longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #8 CLASSIC OF COURSE (7/2): Led every step of the way in his debut at Gulfstream and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. It’s unlikely another perfect trip will materialize here, but he certainly figures to be prominent from the start.

R3

Caldo Candy
Silver Satin
Land d’Oro

#2 CALDO CANDY (3-1): Has yet to run a truly bad race to this point and was a solid second at this level last time out downstate. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and the recent bullet drill over this surface is encouraging; #5 SILVER SATIN (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after graduating in a swiftly-run maiden race in April. He’s yet to run out of the exacta in three starts, and the step up in class may not be too much of a problem; #7 LAND D’ORO (4-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after finishing second going a mile back in April. His lone win to date came at this distance, and the jockey switch to soon-to-be Hall of Fame rider Joel Rosario is a big one.

R4

Almostgone Rocket
Manama Gold
Becky’s Joker

#5 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET (6/5): Has been extremely impressive in two starts to date, including a first-level allowance score on Kentucky Oaks Day. Unlike many others in the Jersey Girl, she’s shown she doesn’t need the lead to run well, and she looms very, very large; #4 MANAMA GOLD (6-1): Went 3-for-3 in Dubai earlier this year, including a win in the Group 3 UAE Oaks. She hasn’t run since february, but her workouts are solid enough and she’s another that could be sitting just off of a very hot pace; #3 BECKY’S JOKER (8-1): Captured the Grade 3 Schuylerville last time out in her career unveiling, but went to the sidelines after a dud a few weeks later. She’s been working well for patient connections and could be another beneficiary of the likely race shape.

R5

In the End
Strictly Taboo
Heart of the Night

#6 IN THE END (9/2): Gets a tepid top pick in a turf sprint where I’m truly not in love with any runner. She, however, goes second off the bench and faces state-bred company for the first time, so there’s reason to believe she’ll move forward; #1 STRICTLY TABOO (3-1): Ran well at this level several times last year and gets reunited with Joel Rosario in her first try since October. Christophe Clement can get horses ready to run off the bench, and she’ll be a major player if she can overcome the inside draw; #9 HEART OF THE NIGHT (5-1): Comes east after starting her career in California and is another facing NY-breds for the first time. Her last two races weren’t anything to write home about, but her 2022 and early-2023 form is strong enough to merit consideration.

R6

Pletcher entry
She’s Wicked Smart
Silvology

PLETCHER ENTRY (6/5): Both #1 CHANTEUSE and #1A AUDACIOUS could win. It would appear they’ve worked in company the last few weeks, and they both draw top-class riders for their respective unveilings; #5 SHE’S WICKED SMART (4-1): Ran well when third in her debut last summer behind Just F Y I, who ultimately wound up becoming the top 2-year-old filly in the country. She’s been off more than nine months, but she’s worked steadily and has every right to be a good one; #2 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Has a very classy pedigree and fired a bullet drill downstate last week for a trainer that doesn’t often ask much of unraced horses. Most of the pedigree says she’d be a top-class turf horse, but she’s flashed enough potential to indicate she could factor in this dirt event at a price.

R7

Ways and Means
Miz Sense
Broderie

#7 WAYS AND MEANS (2/5): Exits the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, where she was fourth behind Thorpedo Anna and may have been going a bit longer than she wants to run. The cutback to a mile should suit her perfectly, she gets Lasix for the first time, and the class relief is a big, big plus; #4 MIZ SENSE (8-1): Won first time out at this route, which is a tricky thing to do, and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since she lost Manny Franco at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway. She comes back for Pletcher here, while adding Lasix and Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #6 BRODERIE (10-1): Won a pair of restricted races in Florida before shipping to Aqueduct and finishing second at this distance. That day’s winner, Midtown Lights, is a solid runner, and this one may sit an ideal stalking trip.

R8

Iron Man Ira (MTO)
Romantic Charmer
Film Academy

#1 ROMANTIC CHARMER (8-1): Tries turf for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love it. He’s by Mendelssohn, out of a Langfuhr mare, and he may not have to move forward much off of his dirt races to win this (his last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 72 is the highest number in the main body of the field); #6 FILM ACADEMY (7/2): Has been off four months but stretches out in his first start since January for very strong connections. He was third in his career debut last summer over this turf course, and he may be on or near the lead in a race without much early zip; #9 MISSION HILL (4-1): Is one of several comebackers, having not run since a so-so fourth at this route in late-August. He’s been gelded since that effort, and a logical move forward would put him right there if he’s ready to run.

R9

Long Neck Paula
French Horn
Aoraki

#9 LONG NECK PAULA (2-1): Cruised to an easy win in her debut over 10 rivals at Keeneland and draws a cushy outside post in the Astoria. Her recent local drill was solid enough, and when Wesley Ward gets young horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 FRENCH HORN (7/2): Wired the field in her debut over Woodbine’s synthetic track and sports a recent bullet drill that suggests dirt won’t be a problem here. Flavien Prat hops aboard this daughter of the mare Emma’s Encore, who gave H. Allen Jerkens his last Grade 1 win in the 2012 Prioress here at Saratoga; #2 AORAKI (5-1): Debuted with a win in a restricted race at Churchill Downs, but despite my concerns about what she beat, I have to admit she won the right way. The Steve Asmussen trainee showed some grit and passed others late, which isn’t the traditional winning trip for a first-time starter.

R10

Dai Vernon (MTO)
Siskany
The Grey Wizard

#12 SISKANY (1-1): Ships in for the Godolphin/Charles Appleby partnership, which has won some of America’s biggest turf races over the last few years. Also in tow is regular rider William Buick, who’s piloted this gelding to many of his 10 career wins (including last year’s renewal of this race, the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup); #11 THE GREY WIZARD (8-1): Goes third off the bench for Graham Motion and stepped forward when third in the Grade 3 Louisville last time out. He was second in this race a year ago and reunites with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez; #3 REALLY GOOD (15-1): Is one of several Mike Maker trainees in this field, and he comes in off of a win downstate. He won the Kent Stakes going long last year, and his plodding style may mean this two-mile distance is exactly what he wants.