Author: Andrew Champagne

Justify, The Hall Of Fame, Historical Context, And A Hard Answer

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Earlier this week, the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame announced its 17 voting finalists for its 2024 class. Those with a vote (self included) will receive ballots soon, and the top vote-getters will be enshrined in Saratoga Springs this summer.

The most polarizing name on the list is Justify. Acting as though this is straightforward either way is naive at best and biased at worst, and when I tweeted that I had absolutely no idea what I was going to do with him, I wasn’t blowing smoke.

What do writers do when things get puzzling? We write through it. With that in mind, let’s discuss the 2018 Horse of the Year and a fascinating question: Is Justify a Hall of Famer?

– – – – –

It makes sense to start with a primer on why we’re here. The case for Justify is quite simple and can be summed up in four words: Undefeated Triple Crown winner.

Justify didn’t make a single start as a 2-year-old. Instead, he broke his maiden at first asking in January, won an allowance race, beat Bolt d’Oro to the wire in the Santa Anita Derby (more on that later), and became the 13th horse to sweep America’s three marquee races for 3-year-olds (and just the second since Affirmed did it 40 years earlier).

He was retired a few months after the Belmont Stakes, and a mild Horse of the Year debate ensued when Accelerate rampaged through California’s biggest races for older horses and annexed the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Before any member of the ever-present Bob Baffert fan club goes after me, I want it noted that I strongly believed Justify was the easy Horse of the Year choice (and wrote about it on this very website).

Most voters agreed. Justify won the trophy and went off to the breeding shed. However, in the past few years, new details have come to light about a positive drug test that came after the Santa Anita Derby. The California Horse Racing Board opted not to disqualify him due to environmental contamination, but in December of 2023 (nearly six years after the race), the Los Angeles County Superior Court ordered the CHRB to set aside their ruling, DQ Justify, and install Bolt d’Oro as the race’s winner.

Without the Kentucky Derby points he earned in the Santa Anita Derby, Justify would not have made the field on the first Saturday in May. Churchill Downs has said it has no plans to alter the results of the 2018 Kentucky Derby, but it’s not illogical to wonder if he should have been in the gate.

Additionally, Justify retired after the Belmont and never faced older horses. Not running in races such as the Breeders’ Cup Classic opened the door for another runner to be considered, by some, a viable threat for Horse of the Year, and in an age where horses don’t run as much, a longer career would have certainly been more appreciated by some in the voting bloc.

– – – – –

To try to make some sense of this, I dove into the history books. On Tuesday, I asked if any Hall of Fame horse carried as much “baggage” as Justify. When in doubt, some degree of precedent helps, and I wanted to see if there were any comparable situations.

The answer: Not really. A couple of horses went through strange situations before being immortalized. Grey Lag raced at age 13 against claimers after falling into the wrong hands. Bewitch’s signature win as a 2-year-old, over Calumet Farm stablemates Citation and Free America, may not have been entirely on the level. Safely Kept may not have made it into the Hall of Fame had Dayjur not jumped a shadow late in the 1990 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Unfortunately, that list also includes Exceller, who was enshrined in 1999 (two years after being sent to the slaughterhouse).

Those stories, though, are pretty different from the one Justify carries, so no dice there. I was, however, able to find a few answers to the “never faced older horses” question.

For the most part, horses enshrined in the Hall of Fame have some longevity to them. However, Justify would be far from the first horse to go in having never faced older rivals. I count at least five honored horses who share that distinction. That list includes another Bob Baffert trainee, Point Given, as well as Tim Tam, Count Fleet, Colin, and, sadly, the ill-fated Ruffian.

That list mainly features horses who suffered career-ending injuries. Justify did require time off, but probably could have continued racing as a 4-year-old. However, as I’ve discussed time and time again on various platforms, the breeding industry is the tail that wags the dog in racing, and there was simply much more guaranteed money to be made sending Justify to stud.

(One quick note: I’m seeing some pro-Justify people support his case by mentioning his early success as a sire. One’s breeding career should have absolutely nothing to do with a Hall of Fame case. The Hall of Fame is for what happens from the starting gate to the wire, not for the results of activities in the breeding shed. Please stop.)

I’m fairly old-school. I like when horses run for long periods of time and do so at racing’s top level. Having said that, while Justify’s short career isn’t ideal, I also can’t hold it against him too much. Add in the likelihood of fellow six-time starter Flightline being a first-ballot Hall of Famer in a few years, and it’s entirely possible longevity just doesn’t matter much anymore.

– – – – –

A unique convergence of events makes this one of the weirdest Hall of Fame questions since the institution opened its doors in the 1950’s. Bob Baffert, of course, has dealt with multiple high-profile positive drug tests. In addition to Justify, a drug test on initial 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit showed betamethasone, and Gamine was disqualified from a third-place finish in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks due to the presence of that same substance.

Baffert is in the Hall of Fame. In addition to Point Given, other former Baffert trainees such as Arrogate, American Pharoah, Silverbulletday, and Silver Charm all have plaques in Saratoga, too.

To call the situation awkward would be an understatement. Nothing about this feels particularly clean. A “yes” vote seems ignorant of an awful lot of facts. A “no” vote…also seems ignorant of an awful lot of facts.

In the absence of much precedent (other than “a few horses with short careers are in”), I keep coming back to the decision made by Churchill Downs. That entity, which has made zero friends in the Baffert camp over the last several years, has opted not to revisit the results of the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Given everything that’s happened since Medina Spirit crossed the wire first in 2021, CDI doing that would have been far from shocking.

Without that race on Justify’s resume, he’s almost certainly not a Hall of Famer (perhaps that incentivizes his connections to run the horse as a 4-year-old, but that’s strictly hypothetical). It being there, however, pushes Justify to a level of rarified air. The previous 12 Triple Crown winners are all enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Only one, Seattle Slew, was also undefeated when he pulled it off.

No, it’s not pretty.

No, it’s not an easy decision.

No, anyone involved in the nearly-six-years-long process to figure out what happened with the post-Santa Anita Derby positive test, and how it should affect the result of the race, should not be involved in such a decision, at all, ever again.

Yes, Justify is a Hall of Famer.

No, Kentucky Derby 150 Doesn’t Need An Asterisk

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

This past weekend, Nysos won the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and he did so very impressively. In the process, he moved his career record to a perfect 3-for-3. That effort, combined with an underwhelming showing from Fierceness in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, made many think he’s the top 3-year-old in the country.

Nysos, though, won’t run in the Kentucky Derby. He’s trained by Bob Baffert, who also conditions several other top-class 3-year-olds. Baffert’s Kentucky Derby ban has been extended through this year’s renewal, and unlike the past two seasons, owners connected with those horses decided to keep their runners in the same barn.

Outcry has, predictably, been pretty harsh, and not just from the usual suspects on horse racing Twitter. Several journalists I respect a great deal have chimed in, claiming that this year’s Kentucky Derby has a stain on it from the lack of Bob Baffert trainees (several of which would be considered logical contenders).

As you can probably guess from the headline, I don’t agree with that sentiment. However, my thoughts on this are similar to the ones I had about the Alix Earle situation at the Pegasus World Cup: Many people have this very, very wrong.

I’m going to throw my readers a curveball here with this next sentence (at least in the eyes of some who will see this article): I don’t love the way Baffert was suspended an additional year. The precedent of tacking on additional time after a verdict was handed down, and as a punishment is being served, isn’t a good one.

The long-running legal battle between Churchill Downs and the Baffert/Amr Zedan camp undoubtedly played a role in this. It was ugly, and I think most of the racing world breathed a sigh of relief when Baffert and Zedan stopped pursuing the case earlier this year. I understand CDI doing what it feels is best for business, but it’s also logical to think this stacks the deck against someone who may have a legitimate case of some sort down the line.

Acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. On the other hand, though…acting as though one person or one entity is above the game is misleading, at best. Much like Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert and his owners aren’t more important than the rest of the industry.

Owners of horses like Nysos had a choice. They could’ve gone the routes made popular in 2022 and 2023 and sent their Derby prospects to the barns of Tim Yakteen, Sean McCarthy, Rodolphe Brisset, Brittany Russell, or other trainers in the game. More than one trainer can condition top-tier animals. Those owners chose to go another route, and that’s their right. I won’t criticize them for doing what they feel is correct. They pay the bills, not me.

What I also won’t do, though, is act as though those people are victims. Baffert was blackballed from the Run for the Roses, not the owners. Just because those connections aren’t pointing those horses to the Kentucky Derby doesn’t mean I’m going to devalue that race, and I don’t think anyone else should, either.

Barring a flip-flop by the owners of horses like Nysos, Muth, and others, those thoroughbreds won’t be in the starting gate. That’s not ideal, and neither is acting as though everything’s fine and the efforts of those horses don’t exist (as Churchill’s doing). However, it’s not the first time horses at or near the head of the class won’t go postward on the first Saturday in May.

Horses get knocked off the Derby trail every single season. Injuries derail the chances of major players frequently. Most notably, Forte, who would’ve been favored a year ago, scratched the morning of the race. Life Is Good and Shared Belief sure would’ve made the 2021 and 2014 Derbies more interesting, too. They didn’t run, either, and both years, fans and handicappers more than made due on the first Saturday in May.

The difference, of course, is that Nysos isn’t injured. As far as we can tell, he bounced out of the Lewis well. We’ll probably see him in either the San Felipe or the Santa Anita Derby, depending on what Baffert decides to do with his other 3-year-olds, and wherever he winds up, he’ll almost certainly be a very heavy favorite (and justifiably so).

Yes, the Kentucky Derby would be better with Nysos in it. Yes, the Preakness sure looks like the Bob Baffert Invitational, where that barn will undoubtedly be loaded and ready to feast upon horses being wheeled back in two weeks and other “new shooters” that almost certainly don’t stack up well in the form. Saying otherwise is naive and acts as though a major issue doesn’t exist (which, to be fair, is in line with horse racing’s approach on other topics that it’s kicked the can down the road on and can no longer just ignore).

However, there’s a lot of blame to go around for the way this wound up. Giving the race a physical or mental asterisk solves nothing. I’ll never agree with those acting as though the Derby is somehow just another 3-year-old race because one trainer, and owners who made conscious choices to stick with that trainer, can’t participate.

(As an aside, an acquaintance of mine has said they’re taking screenshots of folks insisting they don’t care, won’t bet on the race, and making other bold statements. I look forward to the “then and now” posts made when those people inevitably cave.)

It gets old saying “everyone’s wrong.” I genuinely believe most people mean well. I don’t think anyone’s happy horse racing is in the shape it’s in right now. These conflicts, though, solve absolutely nothing and make unifying for meaningful change beyond one big day much, much harder.

Here’s hoping that stops, and does so sooner rather than later.

Alix Earle Went To The Pegasus. Horse Racing Twitter Lost Its Mind.

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I write today not to bury Gulfstream Park, nor to praise it. My latest entry in the “does anyone actually read these?” files instead strikes a familiar refrain that can be applied to a staggering number of situations.

Some background, for those unfamiliar with the situation: Influencer Alix Earle attended the Pegasus World Cup Saturday. Her social media content from the event reached a staggering 6.5 million people in 24 hours. This, of course, drove horse racing Twitter bananas, with fanatics grumbling about how Earle’s presence contributed nothing to the event.

Some further background, for those unfamiliar with me (and because, the last time I did this to establish myself as an “expert witness” of sorts, a few people missed the point and lost their minds over it): I have more than 13 years of experience in digital and social media marketing. Outside of horse racing, I’ve grown brands in the non-profit and college athletics sectors. Inside of this particular industry, I’ve shepherded online outlets for some of the most well-known news and entertainment operations in the game and, of course, had Lord Miles at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial (and the reaction that gets is why I still bring it up; I know my audience!).

All of this is to say I’m as well-qualified as anybody to discuss the layers of this, and that familiar refrain I mentioned earlier is a simple one: Almost everyone is wrong in some way, shape, or form.

The first thing you do, when you want to present your product as “cool,” is find people who others think are “cool” and use them to your benefit. Given the media landscape in 2024, the best way to do this is influencer marketing, and it’s a really simple concept provided you’ve got the money to do it.

As a sport, we talk about needing to try new things to get the sport in front of new fans. Given how many people saw Alix Earle’s content, that box was checked, multiple times over. Sorry to say it, folks, but industry channels and publications aren’t reaching 6.5 million people a day. We’re all statistically insignificant by comparison.

On that level, I have no problem with the presence of Alix Earle at the Pegasus. It seems like a mutually beneficial partnership. Gulfstream gets social media exposure, and Alix Earle gets eyeballs on her content, even if those eyeballs aren’t necessarily those of hardened handicappers (whose eyeballs instead rolled hard as this content got rolled out).

To use a marketing term, though, this got people into the funnel. The next step, now that they’re there, is to convert those people into customers. So what’s Gulfstream Park doing to give these people every reason to come back to the track?

There are ways this can be done. Hit the demographics Alix Earle’s trying to hit with social media ads that have her Pegasus photos or footage in them (assuming you have the rights to something). Use what you’ve got to drive Pegasus-goers back to the racetrack more than once, and when they get there, have resources that are there to introduce people to the betting side of the game. More informed fans are better fans. Better fans wager more and are more likely to introduce the sport to their friends. This isn’t complicated.

There’s a place for influencer marketing in horse racing, but like everything else, there has to be a follow-through. Gulfstream Park has five stakes races on Saturday’s card. The headliner, the Holy Bull, features Fierceness, who’d be the Kentucky Derby favorite if the race was run right now.

Do we think the people who saw Alix Earle’s videos know that? My money’s on “no,” and that’s where it falls apart.

Alix Earle being at the Pegasus World Cup isn’t the issue. The lack of a follow-through is, and that’s where horse racing’s in trouble. If the industry isn’t marketing correctly to new fans, or to the fans it has, what’s going on here?

The data doesn’t present a pretty picture. Handle is down pretty considerably, and only being kept afloat, at some venues, by CAW groups that have certain capabilities unavailable to the average player. The increased availability of legal sports betting can’t help matters. Why go against the sharks at the racetrack when you can spend your gambling dollars at sportsbooks that know their customers and give them what they want?

At its best, horse racing is the best gambling game on the planet, and there’s no close second. It’s what got me into the game as a kid, and it’s why the only times horse racing Twitter comes together with joy is when a player makes a big score. Marketing it as the premier betting opportunity in the country isn’t going to solve all of horse racing’s ills (we’re still breeding fewer horses that don’t run as much as their predecessors), but without that, handle’s going to keep circling the drain and put the sport in an even worse position moving forward.

In that regard, I share the frustrations of my horse racing Twitter brethren at the sport’s continued inability to effectively communicate with its fanbase. That’s my “why,” and it’s a big reason why I show up with content every year at Saratoga, Pleasanton, and a few other outlets. There’s a legitimate gripe that needs to be addressed by tracks across the country, in the form of effective marketing, fan education, and getting people hooked on the game the ways many of us were.

If your problem is with Alix Earle, though, the blame is misplaced.

(Oh, and if you’ve got an issue with well-known, younger women attending sporting events and being seen a lot, you probably shouldn’t watch the Super Bowl.)

Getting Back To Writing For Fun, And Writing What I Know

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Somewhere between Newark, New Jersey, and San Francisco, California, as an Alaska Airlines flight attendant repeatedly barreled into my right shoulder with a lower body reminiscent of Earl Campbell, I realized I hadn’t written anything consistently solely for my own pleasure in quite a while.

I’ve written for work, I’ve written because I’ve felt a need to write something, and I’ve written calls to action of sorts. However, for a bunch of reasons, the urge to write things because I enjoy writing was gone for a while.

It’s back now, thank goodness, and my early New Year’s Resolution of sorts is simple: Write more. I figure I’m good for a column a week most weeks, with the exception of when Saratoga Race Course is open for business (more news is coming on my plans for this summer in the next few months). Want more than that, or want me to focus on something in particular? Tell me. The “contact” feature on my site works, and I see everything that comes in.

People smarter than me say to write what you know, so let’s give it a whirl. Most of my experience is in the gambling space, so there’ll be a healthy dose of that in a lot of what I put together. However, there’ll be some other stuff in there, too (stuff I hope someone out there either enjoys reading or needs to hear).

With that in mind, here’s a list of the things I’ve come to know that, hopefully, proves helpful to someone out there.

I know that more educated, informed fans become better, more devoted fans that will spend more time, energy, and money on a given product.

I know that, to be a better horse racing fan, you’d be well served to spend time reading stuff written by folks named Clancy, Nevills, Voss, Scheinman, Grening, Wincze-Hughes, Beyer, and Crist, rather than stuff put together by people who can barely put out a somewhat-coherent, 280-character post on the platform formerly known as Twitter.

I know that renaming the previously-mentioned platform X was a cataclysmically-stupid move, so I’ll reference it as such as little as possible.

I know that the previously-mentioned flight attendant must have seen what I wrote in the first paragraph, because she damn near elbowed me in the temple just now. Sorry, ma’am.

I know that, from the perspective of horse racing’s establishment, the problem is never the problem, but people TALKING about the problem. I know this because of what some in the media are experiencing now, and from first-hand experience nearly 10 years ago.

I know that, at some point, I’ll tell that story publicly. Not yet, though.

I know that, if horse racing continues this harmful and borderline-shameful practice, the chances of there ever being any sort of productive change within an industry that sorely needs it get lower and lower.

I know that, if you give attention whores attention, they win.

I know that because you’re still hearing about Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial eight months later. If it didn’t get the reaction of “drive some people crazy and get under the skin of people whose buttons I enjoy pushing,” do you really think I’d still be doing it?

By extension, I know that not nearly enough people have ever learned that lesson.

I know the biggest winner in most legal cases is “billable hours.”

I know that Saratoga hosting the Belmont for a few years is a polarizing topic.

I know that Saratoga can throw a horse racing-themed festival like few other places on the planet.

I know that there are very real, very logical objections some have involving the race’s distance and plans for after the mid-2020’s.

I know horses haven’t been bred to go 12 furlongs for decades now, and that dismissing that fact seems dangerous (especially when a career turf sprinter somehow saw 293 mares this breeding season).

I know that I’m going to miss Golden Gate Fields when it closes in June, and I hope that closure doesn’t impact the Northern California fair circuit that’s near and dear to my heart.

I know that, heaven help me, I’m going to miss Aqueduct, too.

I know Mike Repole’s heart is in the right place, and that I have a significant amount of respect for his acumen as a businessman, a horse owner, and an ambassador of horse racing.

I know nobody has ever won anything of substance based on a Twitter poll.

I know that anyone with a net worth north of $100 million should be paying new college graduates living wages to snatch their phones from their hands when the urge to let fly with a platform-formerly-known-as-Twitter rampage comes bubbling to the surface.

I know we’ve got one life to live and that there’s no excuse spending any of it being miserable on social media, to people you’ll never meet, for reasons most logical people will never understand.

I know that public and semi-public figures put themselves out there and sign up for backlash.

I know that family members are off-limits.

I know that everyone needs a support system to go to when things get rough.

I know that I appreciate everyone that constituted mine when I went through some rough stuff earlier this year. I’m on the other side of most of it, and I’m in the debt of anyone reading this who took the time to check in, send a message, make a phone call, or otherwise reach out.

I know time is the most valuable resource we have.

I know there’s no substitute for time spent with family, friends, and loved ones. I love you all, and you know who you are.

2023 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis And Selections

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

After a busy Breeders’ Cup Friday (complete with two live streams and a radio show!), we’re back for more on Saturday at Santa Anita. I’m taking stands against a number of horses I feel are beatable favorites, and here’s hoping a few of them pay off!

Dirt Mile

Well, we’ll start with the least popular stand I can take: I think #3 CODY’S WISH (9/5) is beatable. If this was a one-turn mile, he’d be a near-cinch. His two-turn form, though, is just “very good.” I can’t bet “very good” at odds-on in a Breeders’ Cup race.

My stands against will include #4 ZOZOS (6-1) and #9 NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1). The former has won four of his last five starts for trainer Brad Cox, who doesn’t see his horses fall out of form in big spots very often. The latter, of course, is your Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner, and while his recent efforts have been disappointing, his workouts hint that he’s sitting on a big effort. Add in that both of those horses should be on or near the lead in a race without any other formidable pace factors signed on, and I think the time is right to take a swing.

If I’m wrong, I’ll tip my hat, appreciate the finish to a phenomenal story, and start wondering if Cody’s Wish is a Hall of Famer. From a betting standpoint, though, I just cannot endorse him at a prohibitive price.

Filly and Mare Turf

The sheer amount of back class possessed by #6 INSPIRAL (5/2) is impossible to ignore. She’s run in nothing but Group 1 races for more than two years, she’s won five of them, and her Timeform numbers are very, very strong. I think she’s going to be a very tough favorite and I won’t take too strong a stand against her.

If you’re looking for a bigger price, I’ve got two to consider. #3 WITH THE MOONLIGHT (20-1) hasn’t done much wrong in her five North American starts, where she’s yet to finish out of the top two. She may have needed the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine, where she also might’ve moved too early in her first start since May. Add in that you’re getting Charles Appleby and William Buick at a bonkers price, and there’s stuff to like.

#9 DIDIA (8-1), meanwhile, has won five of six North American races and is 3-for-4 with a second at this 1 1/4-mile distance. She draws well and has enough tactical speed to allow for plenty of options in the early going.

Filly and Mare Sprint

I think the post position draw did #1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (6/5) no favors. The rail isn’t where she wants to be, especially in a race with so much early speed to her outside. She obviously has lots of ability, but I think she’s a very beatable favorite.

#7 SOCIETY (5/2) hits me as the one to beat. She seems like the speed of the speed, she’s in outstanding form, and she boasts the Steve Asmussen work tab I really like. When I see a two-back work that’s very fast, followed by an easy maintenance move, that’s often a sign the horse in question is ready to fire a big shot.

The other one I’m intrigued by is a big price. #5 KIRSTENBOSCH (10-1) won the local prep for this race and could benefit from a pace meltdown. She was solid going two turns, but seems to have found her niche in sprint races, and I think she could come rolling late at a large number.

Mile

Japan looks very tough in here, as #10 SONGLINE (5/2) is a logical favorite. She’s run a number of very fast races in her home country, and anything close to any of the last three races she’s run will make her very tough to top.

I’ll have two logical horses and one price underneath. #3 CASA CREED (8-1) is going to get plenty of support off of two wins in New York, and #11 KELINA (6-1) does her best running over the firm ground she’ll get at Santa Anita. My bigger-priced “B horse,” so to speak, is #8 DU JOUR (15-1), who retains the services of Flavien Prat and sure seems to be in career-best form late in his 5-year-old season.

Distaff

This race took a significant hit for me when #3 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (8-1) scratched. She was my best bet of the day and hit me as an absolute gift at that price, given the abundance of early speed signed on and the talent she’s shown in some very big spots.

With her out, I’ll press on. #9 CLAIRIERE (4-1) seems like the most logical closer in the group. That Asmussen work pattern comes up here, and I’m more than willing to toss her last-out clunker in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. Anything close to her early-2023 form would give her a big shot, especially given the likely race shape, and I think she’s the most likely winner.

#7 WET PAINT (10-1) doesn’t seem fast enough on figures, but she should definitely benefit from the likely battle up front, and as such, I can’t ignore her. Of the ones with speed, the one that intrigues me the most if #6 SEARCH RESULTS (5-1). I think she’ll be the most likely one to have the lead turning for home. The question is, how much will she have left when the closers start making up ground?

Turf

Europe has sent some big guns over for this one. #5 AUGUSTE RODIN (3-1) will look to continue one of the classiest campaigns by a European runner this season. He’s won multiple high-prestige Group 1 races, including a few at this 1 1/2-mile distance, and we know Aidan O’Brien can get a horse ready to run here.

My other “A horse,” though, comes not from Europe, but from Japan. #1 SHAHRYAR (15-1) has back races that make him very competitive against this group. I think his last race is a throwout, as he had a medical procedure done after that dud. If we see the Shahryar that ran in 2022, he’ll have every chance to win at a big price.

#9 MOSTAHDEF (5/2) and #11 KING OF STEEL (4-1) aren’t totally illogical, and I won’t be stunned if either runner wins. However, the former has legitimate distance questions and may be best going a bit shorter, and the latter has chased Auguste Rodin three different times.

Classic

With Pretty Mischievous out of the Distaff, my best bet resides here, and it’s #8 USHBA TESORO (4-1). If he repeats the race he ran to win the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup, I simply don’t think any other horse in this field is capable of beating him.

I wish we were getting a bigger price, and for a time, it seemed we would. However, with Arcangelo, Geaux Rocket Ride, and Mage not lining up for the race, what I thought would be an 8-1 shot is now probably the 4-1 second choice. Still, I think he’s a force to be reckoned with.

Turf Sprint

This is a chaotic race with several world-class speedsters signed on. I can see #3 CARAVEL (5-1), #5 LIVE IN THE DREAM (9/2), and #7 NOBALS (6-1) all going early, and all three of those runners are talented enough to be hanging around at the end.

I can see all three of those potentially winning this, but the one I’m truly intrigued by is #9 ROSES FOR DEBRA (12-1). She won four in a row before catching a boggy turf course at Parx last time out, and I’m more than willing to draw a line through that race. Roses for Debra has enough speed to be close early, but she won’t be intimidated if she has to sit a stalking trip. Such a trip, in fact, could be to her benefit if the leaders start running out of gas turning for home. 

Sprint

We’ll finish things off with another spot where I’m against the favorite, albeit mildly. I can see #8 ELITE POWER (9/5) winning this race, and I’ll have him as a “B horse” on a few tickets. However, two others intrigue me more.

#7 SPEED BOAT BEACH (3-1) is my top pick. He came off a very long layoff in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and did everything but win that race, where he fell short by a head to Dr. Schivel. When Speed Boat Beach is right, he’s got a world of talent. He’s been training very well, and I think he’s sitting on a career-best effort.

The other one I’ll lean on is #9 GUNITE (4-1), who cuts back to his preferred trip and always seems to fire. He beat Elite Power on the square two back in the Grade 1 Forego and draws a favorable outside post, one that should give jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options.