INTERLUDE: A Disappointing, Tragic 2023 Saratoga Meet

When things get weird, writers write, and I can think of no weirder time during my career than this summer.

I’m writing the bulk of this column Saturday night, hours after Travers Day. It should’ve been a celebration of the best Saratoga has to offer. Arcangelo stamped himself as the best 3-year-old in the country with a win in the Midsummer Derby, and stalwarts Echo Zulu and Gunite both won major stakes races.

Of course, all of that pales in comparison to what happened on the rest of the card. Two more horses passed away due to catastrophic injuries. One of them, New York Thunder, seemed on his way to victory in the Allen Jerkens when he went down in midstretch, to the horror of the Saratoga crowd and those watching around the country on FOX. It’s the second time in a month a major breakdown has happened in a race broadcast on that network (Maple Leaf Mel, of course, suffered a fatal injury in the Test).

Now, everyone involved is looking for a path forward. Many on horse racing Twitter, a highly-opinionated space even in the best of times, called for the rest of the meet to be cancelled. Whether or not that’s deemed the most sound decision is anyone’s guess, but the constant barrage of rain this summer at Saratoga sure seems to have changed the track, not unlike what happened at Santa Anita a few years ago. Rain in upstate New York is nothing new, but we haven’t seen a summer like this in a very, very long time.

An emergency meeting was called Saturday night. I imagine we’ll know more in the coming days. For now, though, all I can say is that I’m sick to my stomach. I was excited for the start of this season, as I have been most summers during my life.

Then it started.

There’s no aspect of this meet that hasn’t been disappointing in some form or fashion. The weather has wreaked havoc on programs, turning competitive turf races into five or six-horse affairs out of the Wilson chute (which has gotten WAY too much use). Inquiries and objections have been handled, to be kind, in a very inconsistent manner by stewards, and a few decisions have rendered members of the New York Racing Association’s own TV crew speechless. Breakdowns haven’t just happened. They’ve happened too frequently, on big stages, in full view of not just hardened horseplayers, but families crammed into spots on the track aprons that are usually empty at other NYRA locales.

There have also been plenty of headaches induced on the wagering end. Computer groups, while shut out of NYRA’s win pools, have started hammering exacta payoffs down to where those combinations routinely pay significantly less than they should. The biggest races on the calendar have struggled to draw full fields. In addition, of course, there was the fiasco where surfaces were changed with one minute to post before the first leg of a Pick Five.

(Quick note: I got some heat for my response to that last chain of events, which probably wasn’t worded the best in the heat of the moment but did say that I needed to know more about communication behind the scenes before crushing NYRA. As it turned out, the organization lobbied for a delay that would’ve given players a chance to change tickets, and those efforts were rebuffed. It was a bad situation all around, communication from NYRA to horseplayers was far from ideal, and that shouldn’t ever repeat itself, but it turns out I may have been…at least partially right?)

The simple thing to do is blame one organization or group of people. It’s easy to blame NYRA, or horsepeople who are perceived to operate in certain ways. Unfortunately, while a few individual arguments aren’t without decent points, the bigger answer is almost certainly far more complex and doesn’t lend itself to the lazy ways we tend to communicate with one another.

We don’t breed as many horses as we used to. The ones we produce don’t run as much, or for as long a time period. Some are bred with 2-year-old sales in mind, not 4-year-old races, which leads to longterm soundness issues and, in my opinion, a weaker breed in general. Owners consolidate their stock with fewer trainers, leading to field size headaches, and some of those trainers have rap sheets longer than Jack Kerouac’s scroll of “On the Road.” Computer-assisted groups are problematic to the average bettor, and horse racing as a whole has no idea what to do with them, or how to effectively answer the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?” Finally, of course, Mother Nature has been Saratoga’s worst enemy, and there have been times NYRA has been caught flat-footed in its response to the elements. Mix all of that together, and you get…this.

There aren’t many people in horse racing’s community who are more connected with one track than I am with Saratoga. It’s where I grew up, where I made my bones as a writer and handicapper, and where I’m happy to help as many people as I can in whatever way(s) I can. Even folks who think I’m a moron and who enjoy bashing me for existing are welcome to come find me and break bread at a racetrack whenever I’m at one (it’s not like I’m a hard guy to find).

I’ve had people tell me I’m being too hard on horse racing. I’ve also seen people say I’m lobbying for a job with NYRA. Neither of those viewpoints are true, and to be honest, if people are saying both things, I’m probably being pretty fair.

My experience and perspective means that I see these 40 days in upstate New York as a representation of the best horse racing has to offer, in front of the best fans in the sport. Instead (and please excuse the too-easy cliche coming up), a perfect storm of horrible things have converged on the small city in upstate New York. Instead of being reminded how great this game can be at its best, this meet has shown us how hard it can be at its worst, and it’s done so with staggering, torturous regularity.

In short, what I want is both simple and grand: I want Saratoga to feel like Saratoga again.

I don’t know if that can be done this coming week. To be honest, after the meet that’s taken place this summer, I’m not entirely sure it can happen when Saratoga opens its doors in 2024. I love this place very, very much, but there are no two ways about it: If Saratoga continues feeling less like the Saratoga we know and love and more like the setting of a different “Black Mirror” episode every day, a lot of things are in big, big trouble.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/27/23)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,076.25

I’m going to be honest, folks: My heart’s not in this one. I’ve got picks below for anyone who wants them, but my traditional analysis isn’t happening, and I’m pretty relieved to have plans during most of tomorrow’s card (if you’re curious, I’m touring a possible wedding venue with my long-suffering fiancee, and then we’re seeing “Oppenheimer”).

I handicapped the card Saturday morning, before the events of Travers Day unfolded before a massive audience. One horse, Nobel, suffered a fatal injury on a gallop-out. Another, New York Thunder, catastrophically broke down while appearing to have the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens won by as much as he wanted.

Those in racing, from fans and bettors to owners and trainers, shouldn’t have to wonder whether or not horses come back safe and sound after races. However, that’s been a common occurrence during what’s easily the weirdest Saratoga meet of my lifetime. I’m no expert on equine health, but the constant barrage of rain all summer long sure seems to have affected both the main track and the turf courses to an alarming degree.

I don’t know what the solution is. Maybe there isn’t one. If that’s the case and it doesn’t scare you, check your pulse.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Dynadrive didn’t kick on, and Shop Lifting suffered a heartbreaking loss. I dropped $45, but it surely doesn’t seem all that important in the grand scheme of things.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: If I’ve ever been less enthusiastic about a Saratoga card, I don’t know when. For the sake of this section, I’ll go to the sixth, where I think #7 ROCKET AND ROLL is a vulnerable favorite. I’ll play a $3 exacta box using #5 FLYING IN STYLE, #6 COACH PITINO, and #8 PURE FIRE, and I’ll use those three to finish $4 doubles that start in the fifth (the Yaddo) with #8 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 5-for-13
Meet: 70-for-229

Best Bet: Whatlovelookslike, Race 5
Longshot: American Grant, Race 8

R1

Soloshot (MTO)
Marco T.
Needed

R2

Timely Conquest
Ichiban
Cairo Sugar

R3

Un Ojo (MTO)
Spirit of St Louis
Dakota Gold

R4

The Wine Steward
Trust Fund
Whatchatalkinabout

R5

Whatlovelookslike
Runaway Rumour
Spungie

R6

Pure Fire
Flying in Style
Coach Pitino

R7

Concerti
Stellamaris
My Shea D Lady

R8

Gem Mint Ten
One Headlight
American Grant

R9

Sandy’s Garden (MTO)
Weekend Rags
Linarite

R10

Maker’s Candy
Allure of Money
Drake’s Passage

R11

Boston Strong Mama
Autumn
Splashy

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/26/23; TRAVERS DAY)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,121.25

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Neither Fierceness nor Ontheonesandtwos ever looked like losers, though double payoffs suffered a bit due to three scratches in the latter race. Still, it was a pretty good day, as $40 in bets returned $202.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth and sixth, and I really, REALLY hope the fifth stays on the turf. I’ll have $20 win bets on #1 DYNADRIVE (race 5) and #4 SHOP LIFTING (race 6), and I’ll link them with a $5 cold double.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday: 3-for-10
Meet: 65-for-216

Best Bet: Shop Lifting, Race 6
Longshot: Verstappen, Race 11

R1

Catire Vizcaya
Walstib
Secret Lover

#2 CATIRE VIZCAYA (3-1): Dueled through legitimate fractions in his debut before settling for second, and that day’s third-place finisher came right back to win. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and this one should be prominent from the jump; #8 WALSTIB (2-1): Ran well when second in his unveiling for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully cranked. Based on that, he’s a logical favorite, but I’d love to know why this barn also entered #1 STUNNEM; #3 SECRET LOVER (5-1): Had every reason to not run a jump in his debut after a terrible start, but while he was a distant fourth, he showed plenty of late interest. This barn has done well with its small string here this summer, and this is another that could step forward in the Travers Day lid-lifter.

R2

Golden Arm (MTO)
Barber entry
Ortus

BARBER ENTRY (9/5): I prefer #1 CITY MISCHIEF, who ran very well in defeat last time out in what doubled as his first effort since December. It’s true that he hasn’t won in a while, but many of his prior outings were against open company, not NY-breds; #2 ORTUS (3-1): Was second behind a much-the-best winner over yielding going last time out at Belmont. The inside draw can be tricky for closers, but we’ve also seen him show some tactical speed in the past, too; #9 ATHENRY (15-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out downstate and has been working steadily at the Spa. His two-back effort was actually pretty solid, and a repeat of that effort could get him a check at a big price.

R3

Mistical Curlin 
Money Supply
St. Elmo

#4 MISTICAL CURLIN (2-1): Is at his best over an off track, which we’re likely to see at least early in the Saturday card, and the stretchout to two turns shouldn’t be a problem. His early speed should be an asset in a race without much of it elsewhere; #3 MONEY SUPPLY (9/5): Capitalized on a big class drop earlier in the meet and won going away over weaker competition in a restricted claiming event. He goes to a new barn here, which is always a question mark, but he’s got back speed figures that would certainly make him a major player; #2 ST. ELMO (8-1): Had a perfect trip in Indiana last time out, where he broke his maiden after being part of a very slow early pace. He probably has to step forward, but it’s also possible he’s embracing going two turns after three sprints to start his career.

R4

Scocciatore
Lord Captain
My Harbors Dream

#1 SCOCCIATORE (9/2): Stalked and pounced to win a similar race here earlier in the summer and is a candidate to do the same here. He clearly loves Saratoga and seems to be doing well for a barn that’s enjoyed a very solid meet; #6 LORD CAPTAIN (7/2): Very clearly didn’t enjoy the stretchout last time out and cuts back to one turn for this event. He was a good second two back going seven furlongs, and his lone start over a wet track was a win; #2 MY HARBORS DREAM (12-1): Has won two of three starts since being claimed by David Jacobson in April, and one of them was a solid last-out score at Delaware Park. This well-traveled gelding (a Washington-bred) has enough speed to sit close and be among an onslaught of pursuers as the field turns for home.

R5

Tonal Impact (MTO)
Flying P entry
Nobel

#1 DYNADRIVE (5-1): Gets a much-needed class drop after chasing graded stakes foes for quite a while. He loves this turf course, he won the Lure last year, and I think he’s got a big chance assuming this event stays on the lawn; #6 NOBEL (7/2): Comes over from Europe, where he most recently ran a close-up fourth in an 18-horse event at York. He’s proven at this distance, and trainer Brendan Walsh does good work with horses making their first starts in North America; #2 CATCH THAT PARTY (4-1): Has hit the board in five of his six local turf starts, and his recent off-the-turf race is an obvious throwout. The win two back at Belmont was sharp, Irad returns to the saddle, and his usual race gives him a chance in a race where I think likely favorite #7 JAMES ALOYSIUS is vulnerable.

R6

Shop Lifting
Cowgirl Charm
Colonial Rose

#4 SHOP LIFTING (6-1): Has been working very well for a trainer who sometimes doesn’t ask his first-time starters for a whole lot. This daughter of Into Mischief sold for $475,000 as a yearling, is out of a Grade 1-winning mare (one kin to top sprinter Trappe Shot), and this price hits me as a significant overlay; #6 COWGIRL CHARM (5-1): Sold for $160,000 at Keeneland despite a modest-at-first-glance pedigree, but there’s a lot of class on the dam’s side. This one is kin to five horses that have hit the track. They’re all winners, and the dam herself is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Cupid, among others; #2 COLONIAL ROSE (7/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group, having run second in her debut last month. She has every right to improve, but I’m not sure how strong that field she faced last time really was, and there are some intriguing prospects in this one.

R7

Elite Power
Gunite
Pipeline

#3 ELITE POWER (1/2): Has won eight in a row, including several Grade 1 events, and looms large in the Grade 1 Forego. His win in the Vanderbilt was excellent, we know he can handle seven furlongs, and his usual effort beats these; #2 GUNITE (6/5): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick last time out but came up a head short. He’s an honest horse who’s only been worse than third twice in 18 lifetime starts, and he figures to be prominent early on; #4 PIPELINE (12-1): Fell victim to one of the deadest rails in Saratoga history last time out, when he went from “loaded” to “empty” very, very quickly. I’m banking on an improved performance second off the bench, and he could spice up the exotics at a price.

R8

Daufuskie Island (MTO)
Souper Quest
Southern Horse

#13 SOUPER QUEST (3-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but looms large if he does. He romped in his debut and, in his most recent start, ran second to a Saratoga-loving turf sprinter who has since come back to win again; #12 SOUTHERN HORSE (7/2): Comes east after being purchased by David Jacobson earlier this year and has run some very strong races going short over the Santa Anita turf course. He’s been working steadily here, and he seems like a major player if he’s ready to go; #7 ACOUSTIC AVE (8-1): Is an obvious contender if the race gets moved to dirt, but there’s enough turf pedigree here to make him worth a play at a price. Damsire Street Boss is an excellent turf influence, and he gets Lasix for the first time in his first non-stakes race since a maiden-breaking score here last July.

R9

Arabian Lion
Fort Bragg
New York Thunder

#6 ARABIAN LION (2-1): Has blossomed into a top-tier 3-year-old, albeit a bit later than many expected, and he looms large from a cushy outside post in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. His last two races were excellent, and he’s been working up a storm in California ahead of this event; #4 FORT BRAGG (5/2): Cuts back after winning the Grade 3 Dwyer, and that day’s runner-up did everything but win the Grade 2 Jim Dandy next time out. I’m not sure seven furlongs is his preferred trip, but talent-wise, he most definitely fits; #5 NEW YORK THUNDER (5/2): Ran a hole in the wind in annexing the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s 4-for-4 and has every right to be a freak, but repeating that race is a tall order, and that’s what he may have to do.

R10

Echo Zulu
Goodnight Olive
Wicked Halo

#6 ECHO ZULU (7/5): Loves Saratoga and ran a career-best race in dominating the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. The Grade 1 Ballerina is a taller task, but it’s not like she beat weaklings last time out, and I think she’ll be extremely tough to beat here; #7 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (9/5): Is likely a horror-trip third in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff away from a nine-race win streak, and she got back on the beam last time out at Belmont. Seven furlongs is definitely her preferred distance, the draw is a plus, and she was impressive in winning this race a year ago; #5 WICKED HALO (8-1): Has butted heads with a bunch of these in the past and was a neck back of my second choice two starts ago. She’s 2-for-2 over the Saratoga track, won the Grade 2 Prioress a season ago, and could sit an ideal stalking trip at a price.

R11

Verstappen
Pioneering Spirit
Stone Age

#2 VERSTAPPEN (8-1): Ran second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, where the frontrunner got an ideal trip and never stopped. I think the pace will be a bit faster here, and that this gelding will love a return to a distance where he won the Grade 2 Elkhorn earlier this year; #5 PIONEERING SPIRIT (8-1): Has won four in a row and scratched out of the John’s Call to run here, which seems like a vote of confidence from a high-percentage barn. Perhaps he needs to improve, but few are better at moving horses forward on this circuit than Linda Rice; #7 STONE AGE (6/5): Ran second in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and makes his first start for Chad Brown. He’s a logical favorite, and I wouldn’t hate him at odds of 5/2 or so. Having said that, he hasn’t won in more than a year and has had several logical chances to break through. Maybe he makes me look like an idiot, but I simply can’t back him at his likely price.

R12

Forte
National Treasure
Mage

#1 FORTE (7/5): Won a controversial renewal of the Jim Dandy to prep for the Grade 1 Travers, and I think he looms large despite going against the winners of all three Triple Crown races. This is his third start off a break that included a scratch from the Kentucky Derby, where he would’ve been the favorite, and I think he stamps himself as the best 3-year-old male with a win in the Midsummer Derby; #5 NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1): Went wire-to-wire to win the Grade 1 Preakness two back before tiring in the Belmont. I don’t see much other early speed in this race, and if the track is once again playing kindly to horses on the front end, he could lead them a long way; #4 MAGE (4-1): Won the Kentucky Derby, was third in the Preakness, and ran a good second in the Grade 1 Haskell. He’s a consistent sort that will do his best running late, and we already know this 10-furlong distance fits him like a glove.

R13

Coalville (MTO)
Brown entry
Conversing

BROWN ENTRY (7/5): The odds hit me as a bit of an underlay, but both #1 RIGHT TO WIN and #1A GROWTH CAPITAL hit me as contenders in here, and you’re getting both for the price of one. The latter, in particular, ran a really good race at Kentucky Downs last fall and may be the one they have to run down; #3 CONVERSING (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since October, but ran well twice last summer and goes out for a barn that does very well with horses coming back off of long layoffs. First-time Lasix is a big plus, as is the continued presence of John Velazquez; #8 TORIGO (6-1): Ran okay to be second in his comeback race in July downstate and could move forward second off the layoff. His connections thought enough of him to try the Grade 2 Pilgrim last fall, and it’s possible he’s got room to move forward in what’s just his fourth career outing.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/25/23)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $959.25

One of the most annoying words in horse racing made its way into Friday’s Saratoga card. It’s one I’ve never seen before at the Spa, and one I hope to never see again.

If you look at the scheduled distances of today’s turf routes, you don’t see an exact distance. You see an “about” distance. I understand the reason behind this (moving the portable rail to preserve the turf course). Having said that, with one notable exception (the downhill turf course at Santa Anita), “about” distances hit me as a bad look.

Take it from this angle: Here in horse racing, we apparently can’t give you exact distances, we can’t time races consistently, some high-profile courses can’t grow or maintain grass, and we can’t keep major computer groups out of our pools. Tell me again why a novice who’s never been to a track before would invest in horse racing over sports betting, please.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My longshot of the day ran third, so I dropped $50.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on my best bet of the day. That’s #6 FIERCENESS in the sixth, who’s a single for me in $20 doubles starting in that race that end with #3 HEADLAND and #8 ONTHEONESANDTWOS in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday: 3-for-10
Meet: 62-for-206

Best Bet: Fierceness, Race 6
Longshot: Original, Race 4

R1

Moonlight
Walley World
Feltrinelli

#15 MOONLIGHT (7/2): Needs a bunch of scratches to draw into the Friday opener but merits a big chance if he does. He did everything but win in his debut, where he came up a neck short after a wide trip; #5 WALLEY WORLD (4-1): Has scratched out of several races due to the weather issues at the Spa and is bred to love the turf. Chad Brown has enlisted Flavien Prat to ride, and he looks like a well-meant first-time starter; #4 FELTRINELLI (5-1): Sold for $400,000 at the OBS sale this past year and boasts a series of strong workouts for red-hot trainer George Weaver. This son of Uncle Mo looks like a runner and is another with a big shot in a wide-open event.

R2

Vax
Our Rosie Diamonds
Trust the Numbers

#3 VAX (5/2): Takes a big drop first off the claim for Linda Rice, which is sometimes a red flag. However, this is far from an inspiring bunch she faces in this spot, and her two local works hint that she’s doing well ahead of this event; #4 OUR ROSIE DIAMONDS (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but was a good second against similar last time out. She lost to a massive class-dropper that day after doing a lot of the dirty work up front; #5 TRUST THE NUMBERS (2-1): May very well go favored in here, but I have my doubts. This is a $160,000 yearling purchase now running for 10% of that price, she hasn’t run since March, and she’s been working at Monmouth, which isn’t as big a disqualifying factor as it was a few years ago but is still noteworthy. To me, this is a favorite you’re supposed to try to beat.

R3

Self Isolation (MTO)
Roses for Debra
Bubble Rock

#5 ROSES FOR DEBRA (1/2): Has won six of eight carer outings and looms large in the Smart N Fancy. One of those wins came in the Grade 3 Caress earlier in the meet, and she was very, very impressive that day against a good group; #2 BUBBLE ROCK (3-1): Was third behind my top pick in the Caress and may not have cared much for a turf course that had some give in it. She runs very well over firm turf courses, and she’s likely to get her desired footing in this spot; #4 POPPY FLOWER (5-1): Is another that has shown she’s better over firm going and was one-paced in the Caress. There’s some speed in here, and she could very well rally for a piece of it.

R4

Dust Devil (MTO)
Original
High Tide

#3 ORIGINAL (8-1): Goes to the barn of Rick Dutrow, which is as powerful a move as it was 15 years ago now that the outfit is heating up a bit. He’s got plenty of back class and is a major player at a price if Dutrow can get him back or anywhere close to that form; #2 HIGH TIDE (5/2): Tried much tougher competition last time out and was eased home. He was competitive two and three back against similar stock, and his best efforts have come going two turns on turf; #5 LANDBISCUIT (3-1): Was put up via DQ last time out at this level and route after being up close throughout. Joel Rosario rides back when he probably had a few options, and he figures to be prominent from an early stage once again.

R5

Prove Right
Joking Way
Mr Bob

#1 PROVE RIGHT (3-1): Capitalized on the class drop with an easy win last time out at this route against a few horses that also show up in this spot. He’s been working well since and looks to add his second win of the meet in what seems like a logical spot; #6 JOKING WAY (6-1): Exits a key race at Ellis Park, where he ran second behind and in front of next-out winners. Linda Rice claimed him that day, and we all know how dangerous she is with new acquisitions; #7 MR BOB (15-1): Hasn’t been since since trying a few races on the road to the Kentucky Derby earlier this year. Maybe he didn’t like Gulfstream, and maybe those races were just too long for him. His sprints last year were sharp, and if he’s ready to run, the morning line price is an overlay. 

R6

Fierceness
Wajda
Apollo Ten

#6 FIERCENESS (2-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and has every right to be a runner. He’s been working lights-out over this track with a series of sharp gate drills, and if he runs back to those workouts, look out; #4 WAJDA (5-1): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and hammered for $425,000 at the OBS sale. He’s followed that up with a few sharp works here that hint he, too, has plenty of talent; #3 APOLLO TEN (8-1): Hasn’t found the easiest spot for his debut, but seems well-meant and has a superb gate work three works back over the Oklahoma track. Christophe Clement isn’t regarded as a top-tier first-out trainer, but his numbers are solid, and I can’t completely ignore him at his likely price.

R7

Headland
Ontheonesandtwos
You Look Cold

#3 HEADLAND (8/5): Has won two in a row, including a similar race earlier this summer, and seems to have rebound her best form as a 7-year-old mare. First-call rider Jose Ortiz hops aboard for Linda Rice, and a repeat of her last two efforts will make her tough in here; #8 ONTHEONESANDTWOS (5-1): Draws a cushy outside post and has flashed plenty of talent in the past. Her two-back win at Churchill was excellent, and she had every right to need her last-out clunker given that it was her first start in more than a year; #1 YOU LOOK COLD (4-1): Had an excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well, was rushed up, and tired to finish a distant third. She has plenty of prior efforts that are far better than that one, and Joel Rosario knows her pretty well.

R8

Peak Popularity (MTO)
Madaket entry
Anatolian

Being incredibly honest, I found this race impossible to decipher. The favored entry looks tough, but if those horses aren’t ready to fire, I don’t have any particular confidence in any others.

R9

Nest
Idiomatic
Clairiere

#5 NEST (4/5): Returned with a flourish to win the Grade 2 Shuvee and may well be riding a five-race win streak if not for a horrible ride in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff last fall. Simply put, her usual effort beats this bunch in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, which I REALLY wish was still a mile and a quarter; #1 IDIOMATIC (3-1): Overcame a slow start to win the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap and has run several big speed figures in the past. This is certainly a class test, but she’s got plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; #6 CLAIRIERE (5/2): Is as easy a horse to root for as any in training, having won multiple Grade 1 races and banked more than $3.1 million. She did not, however, seem to have any excuse in the Shuvee, and my top pick may be even sharper second off the bench.

R10

Cowichan
Bourbon and Honey
Oolong Hai

#2 COWICHAN (3-1): Ran well off the bench when last seen at Keeneland, and that race has produced several next-out winners. She’s had plenty of chances, and this is probably a “now or never” spot, but this doesn’t seem to be a field of world-beaters, either; #6 BOURBON AND HONEY (8-1): Has run once, in an off-the-turf race more than a year ago, but this barn is excellent with horses coming off of long breaks and she’s bred to love the lawn. It also helps that both that race’s winner and second-place finisher came back to win at next asking; #9 OOLONG HAI (6-1): Looks like the main speed in here, for sure, given several of her efforts at Gulfstream and Belmont. She’s definitely got stamina concerns, but she also seems like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/23)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,009.25

The Wilson chute was built prior to last year’s meet for a few different reasons. It was supposed to cater to milers who would otherwise have to cut back to seven furlongs or, horror of all horrors, stretch out to a mile and an eighth.

In the opinion of this handicapper/writer, Saratoga is overusing it. I said from the outset that I hoped NYRA wouldn’t be cutting back on two-turn dirt racing. Admittedly, the Wilson chute has seen the lion’s share of the off-the-turf races this summer (LOTS of them), but it sure seems like we’re not seeing as many nine-furlong races as we used to at the Spa.

Stuff like this, and the new uphill turf course at Santa Anita, gives me pause. I like quirky courses. They’re fun. Having said that, it sure seems like tracks will literally do ANYTHING to make sure most thoroughbreds campaigned in 2023 don’t have to run two turns.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Many of my top picks ran second or third, and that’s what happened to B D Saints. After scratches, I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, which houses my live longshot of the day. 6-1 isn’t an insane price, but it hits me as a considerable overlay on #6 SUN AND WIND. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and I’ll key her up and down in $5 exactas that also use #3 LADY ARWEN and #4 AWESOME CZECH.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 1-for-10
Meet: 59-for-196

Best Bet: Technical Analysis, Race 9
Longshot: Sun and Wind, Race 5

R1

Alterina
Cause I’m Elegant
Strange Fruit

We start off with a puzzler where I just don’t have a strong opinion. I think it’s possible #6 ALTERINA (9/2) improves second time out for a hot barn. Beyond that, I’ve got nothing for you here.

R2

Instamatic
Adelphi entry
Detective Tom

#7 INSTAMATIC (7/2): Didn’t break well in his debut, where he was favored. He did at least do some running late for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, and I’m expecting a big step forward; ADELPHI ENTRY (4-1): I most prefer #1A HARD PAR, who needs a scratch to draw into the field. He ran second in his unveiling at a big price, and any sort of improvement would give him a big shot; #4 DETECTIVE TOM (3-1): Comes in off of a strong gate drill and is bred to love the lawn. He’s a son of The Factor, whose offspring tend to prefer the turf, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride.

R3

Bold Endeavor (MTO)
Kuramata
Easter

#6 KURAMATA (6/5): Had every right to need his last-out effort off a long break, but ran very well and was beaten just a neck. It’s safe to assume he’s had some issues in his career, but he’s a sharp horse when he’s right and he’s a very logical favorite; #3 EASTER (2-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and has danced some big dances. He was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Man o’ War, and he’d benefit from a fast pace up front; #4 MAIN EVENT (6-1): Also ran in that July 30th race and set the pace before tiring late. That was his first run in nearly a year, and this barn’s been winning races at a very strong clip lately. He could go early and prove tough to catch.

R4

Classic Mark
Complete Agenda
Big Bobby

#3 CLASSIC MARK (2-1): Drops back in for a tag after a win over starter allowance foes downstate. The Linda Rice barn must be respected, and I like horses cutting back in distance at these one-mile races, rather than ones stretching out; #6 COMPLETE AGENDA (9/5): Hasn’t won in a while but has faced significantly better horses of late. He chased the likes of Ouster last time out going much longer, and his last victory came at this one-mile distance; #7 BIG BOBBY (9/2): Is a puzzling sort coming in off of an 83-length defeat (yes, you read that correctly). The drop off of a few clunkers is a concern, but he’s run well over this surface in the past and is a contender on his best day.

R5

Sun and Wind
Lady Arwen
Awesome Czech

#6 SUN AND WIND (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut and may have simply bounced last time out (an unlucky trip didn’t help matters). The August 9th work jumps off the page, and I think she presents real value at or near the morning line price; #3 LADY ARWEN (even): Tired in her debut earlier this summer, when she rushed up after a tardy start. She has every right to move forward at second asking, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez opts to ride back; #4 AWESOME CZECH (5/2): Didn’t do much running in her unveiling last month, but she had every right to need that debut. She’s bred to get better with distance and experience, and the stretch-out to seven furlongs should help her.

R6

High Oak (MTO)
Dubb entry
Sosua Summer

DUBB ENTRY (2-1): Both runners can win, but I prefer #2B OXYMORE. He owns a stakes win at this route in last summer’s Skidmore, and if he’s ready to run in his 3-year-old debut, I think he’s the most likely winner; #5 SOSUA SUMMER (6-1): Is a different animal at Saratoga, where he moved to 2-for-2 after a score in an allowance race last month. That was a career-best effort, and while this is a pretty tough spot, he seems to be going the right way for trainer Bill Mott; #9 FAUCI (8-1): Hasn’t won in more than two years, but was a good second last time out and hasn’t been worse than third in five local starts. Flavien Prat hopping aboard is a good sign, and he should be moving late at a bit of a price.

R7

Bustin Bay
Sweet Mystery
Mia Bea Star

#1 BUSTIN BAY (even): Has won three of her last four starts, including a score in the first race of the meet going two turns. She’s won three of six local starts, and is a candidate to notch her 11th win overall in 34 lifetime outings; #6 SWEET MYSTERY (2-1): Cuts back to a mile after finishing second going two turns last time out. She hasn’t won in a while, but she can make up ground late and draws well in this particular spot; #4 MIA BEA STAR (6-1): Ran well to win going a mile downstate two starts ago and wasn’t far behind my top pick last time out. Her record looks far better if you toss her races over wet tracks, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

R8

Vitaemi
To a T
Meraviglioso

#8 VITAEMI (3-1): Makes her second start off a brief layoff in this spot and draws a cushy outside post. David Jacobson’s barn has heated up in the back half of the meet, and she seems like the one they’ll have to catch; #2 TO A T (9/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but has also been running against higher-quality competition. The drop in class could easily wak her up, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options; #7 MERAVIGLIOSO (6-1): Is another without a trip to the winner’s circle recently, but she ran well last time out to finish second against similar stock. A similar effort in this race puts her right there with a chance to break the drought.

R9

Technical Analysis
Consumer Spending
Fluffy Socks

#8 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Has never looked like a loser in any of her three local starts and looms large in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. She’s one of several contenders in here trained by Chad Brown, and she should be able to dictate terms from the jump in an attempt to win this race for the second year in a row; #2 CONSUMER SPENDING (3-1): Comes in off of two stakes wins in a row at Monmouth Park. She’s won three graded stakes races, retains the services of Joel Rosario, and could have every chance to come running late; #4 FLUFFY SOCKS (9/2): Gets significant class relief after chasing tough rivals in the Grade 1 Diana last time out. She won a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs two starts ago and was second in this very race last year behind my top pick.

R10

Toofareastiswest
War Officer
Sacred Rhyme

#9 TOOFAREASTISWEST (5/2): Has run well in all four of his career starts and may have moved too soon going a bit longer last time out. The cutback in distance should suit him here, and it doesn’t seem like he’s tackling any monsters in the Thursday finale; #5 WAR OFFICER (5-1): Debuted with a clunker in an off-the-turf race, but he’s bred to love the lawn and is eligible to take a big step forward. This son of War Front is out of a Galileo mare, and I think he’s doing what he wants to do here; #2 SACRED RHYME (4-1): Had a rough start last time out and didn’t do much running, but his debut was fine and he’s a contender if he runs back to that. The recent Monmouth Works are a question mark, but if you liked him at 7/2 last time out, you may want to give him another shot at a slightly bigger price here.