Author: Andrew Champagne

2017 Breeders’ Cup: Friday Analysis, Selections, and Wagering Strategies

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is the first day of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, and in a lot of ways, the four championship races on tap represent the best of what the event is supposed to offer. With big, talented fields going postward that include some of the top horses in training, it makes for a fun Pick Four sequence, as well as four races with standalone wagering value.

These previews, needless to say, will be a bit more substantial than what you’ve seen from me in the past. I’ll have a Pick Four ticket at the end, but given the subject matter, I feel it appropriate to expound on each race. With that being said, here we go!

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Five of Europe’s top 2-year-old fillies have come across the pond for this one, and the invaders are led by #2 HAPPILY. She comes in off a pair of Group 1 races, including one against the boys at Chantilly. Only one other European filly in this field can approach her top Timeform rating of 105, and if Happily runs her usual race, she’ll be tough to beat.

The most-bet American runner will probably be #11 RUSHING FALL. She’s 2-for-2, and the Chad Brown trainee most recently captured the Grade 3 Jessamine with a huge late move. She rallied from twelfth to win going away, and there appears to be plenty of pace signed on here. This is a much tougher field than what she’s faced in the past, but based on numbers and the likely race shape, she’s a must-use.

There’s a bigger price signed on that I think merits consideration as well. #6 ORBOLUTION is 20-1 on the morning line, but she’d have been less than half of that if this race was held before the Miss Grillo, and in that race, she had a sneaky-awful trip. She’s a smaller filly who had shined going two turns, but in that one-turn race, she was between horses throughout and clearly intimidated. She tried that day, but it wasn’t her ideal trip or route of ground. She gets a two-turn trip today, and 20-1 is way too big a price.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

The big question here is this: Which version of #6 MOR SPIRIT do we get? His Met Mile win was one of the best races we’ve seen all year long, but he hasn’t run since. A repeat of that effort probably means everyone else is running for second money. However, if he’s not ready, that opens the door for another runner in what turned out to be a pretty salty field.

#8 ACCELERATE is incredibly logical. He’s 3-for-4 at Del Mar, and his lone local loss came in the Pacific Classic, when he chased Collected and Arrogate going longer than he wants to go. There’s no doubt he does his best running over this surface, and his last two workouts indicate that he seems to be ready to fire his best shot.

The other logical horse is #3 SHARP AZTECA. He’s cruised to two straight wins since running a distant second behind Mor Spirit in the Met Mile, although it’s worth noting that he hasn’t beaten much in either of those races. However, I put him behind my top two because of the likely race shape. There’s other early speed signed on, including Mor Spirit’s stablemate, #7 CUPID. Sharp Azteca’s best race puts him right there, but in constructing a multi-race wager during cards like these, you need to take stands somewhere. As such, I’m leaving him off of most of my tickets.

I’m also against #10 PRACTICAL JOKE, who’ll likely get some play. In the defense of the multiple Grade 1 winner, though, it’s not his fault that he was caught between two Breeders’ Cup races. The Sprint’s six-furlong distance is a bit short for him, but this year’s Dirt Mile is a two-turn route, which he’s shown isn’t his best game. He could rally for a piece of it, but I’m looking elsewhere on top.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

If you’re constructing a Pick Four ticket, my advice is to take a stand somewhere. Why? Because, for my money, the Juvenile Turf is the most wide-open race of the entire two-day event, and I think you may need to hit the “ALL” button here. I wish I could tell you that I had some kind of confidence in something here. The truth is, I don’t, so instead, I’ll recommend two big prices that I feel merit consideration.

#3 SANDS OF MALI comes over from Europe, and he ran a clunker last time out in a Group 1 behind U S Navy Flag (who we’ll see in Saturday’s Juvenile on dirt). However, he was very sharp in two races before that, including one where he earned a 104 Timeform rating. There’s a very real chance his last-out effort was simply a bounce off a new career-best, and I like that he’s shown tactical speed. This race doesn’t appear to have a lot of early pace signed on, so that gives him a potential advantage if Flavien Prat gets him on or near the lead out of the gate. He’s 30-1 on the morning line, and I think that’s too big a price. If I play a contest on this card, chances are I’ll use him and hope for the best.

#4 CATHOLIC BOY, meanwhile, is 2-for-2 and pulled off a 12-1 upset in a Grade 3 last time out. Jonathan Thomas isn’t a household name, but he’s a former Todd Pletcher assistant who has won 30% of his starts this season. His local work on October 29th was very good, and further progression would make this 12-1 shot a major player.

BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF

Friday’s main event is the Distaff, and this could settle the races for several Eclipse Awards. #2 STELLAR WIND and #6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED are the leaders among older female horses, while #4 ABEL TASMAN, #5 ELATE, and #7 PARADISE WOODS could secure 3-year-old filly honors with a victory here.

Personally, I’m of the belief that this year’s group of 3-year-old fillies is subpar. Abel Tasman’s recent middle moves raise a big red flag, while Elate was bred up and down for the 10-furlong Alabama and didn’t beat much in the Beldame while running pretty slowly for the level. Of the 3-year-old fillies in this race, the only one I think has a significant shot is Paradise Woods, and that’s because of the race shape. There isn’t much other early speed here, and over a track that’s traditionally very kind to early speed, that one could be a formidable foe if she’s allowed to coast on an easy lead.

However, she’s not my top pick. That distinction goes to Stellar Wind, who has never lost at Del Mar. She’s 3-for-3 over this track and could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the early speed. I have a great deal of respect for Forever Unbridled, but she may be left with too much to do late given the race shape and track tendencies. With all things considered, I’m singling Stellar Wind and hoping she runs her usual Del Mar race.

PICK FOUR TICKET

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 2,6,11
R7: 6,8
R8: ALL
R9: 2

84 Bets, $42

My thinking here is that Stellar Wind, who is 5/2 on the morning line, almost certainly won’t go off above 3-1. If I’m alive going into the last leg, at worst, those are the odds I’ll get (given how wide-open the Juvenile Turf is). If a price comes in in the third leg and/or Orbolution wins the Juvenile Fillies Turf, I could potentially be alive to a nice, nice score.

There are other ways to make money on the card. For instance, the favorite in the Juvenile Fillies Turf is 7/2, which means exacta wagers could pay well if you’ve got a few horses to key in on. Additionally, if you can narrow down the Juvenile Turf to a few horses, playing doubles starting and ending there could be fruitful given the chaotic odds board we’re likely to see. Simply put, it’s a really good four-race sequence, and hopefully it sets the table for plenty of fireworks on Saturday.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Belmont Park (10/28/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I really like Saturday’s card at Belmont Park. The stakes races later in the day feature strong fields, most notably the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, which reads moreso like a somewhat-light Grade 1 given the entrants contesting the race. I’ve got a pair of multi-race exotics tickets for your consideration, and I’ll dissect them next!

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 1,2,5,7
R2: 2,3,4
R3: 3
R4: 2,6
R5: 5,6,8,12 (11)

96 Bets, $48

I found the Pick Five sequence absolutely fascinating. My lone single is no huge favorite, and if we’re able to get this ticket home, it could give us plenty of bullets to fire during the Breeders’ Cup next weekend.

I needed to spread in the opener, a 10-furlong maiden race on the turf with no clear favorite. Similarly, I had no real convictions about the second leg, a $20,000 claimer going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track. #2 GAMBLER’S GHOST will be dangerous if left alone on the front end, but he’s done his best running at Monmouth, not Belmont, and sometimes that form doesn’t translate. With that in mind, I needed to use fellow logical horses #3 SARATOGA WILDCAT and #4 SET THE TRAPPE, the latter of whom is returning to his appropriate class level after finding starter allowance company too strong last time out.

My single comes in the third, a turf sprint for state-bred maidens. I really like #3 THROW THE DEUCE, who ran very well in his debut two back. They tried to stretch him out last time, and he didn’t have the best of trips that day. A return to sprinting should suit him, this field seems a bit soft for the level, and Joel Rosario climbing back aboard is a big plus. He’s 7/2 on the morning line, and given the big field signed on, we may get that price.

I’m two-deep in the fourth. #2 MIDNIGHT CELLO drops down sharply off the claim by David Jacobson, but he’s won regularly with these runners in the past. In case that one isn’t ready to fire, I’ll also use #6 POINT HOPE, who romped at this level two back and returns to it after finishing third in a starter allowance at Saratoga.

I’m four-deep to finish things off, and if you’ve got deeper pockets, there’s another you may want to consider. This is a maiden race for 2-year-olds going a mile on the turf, and while #5 BLOCKADE and #8 CONGRUITY will take money, I didn’t think either was a cinch. I’ll also use #6 WITCH DOCTOR and #12 THUNDER MESA (the latter of whom finished a half-length behind Congruity last time out and is way too big a price on the morning line). If you have the money, or if one of those horses scratches, don’t sleep on #11 FAST BOAT. He’s bred up and down for turf (by City Zip, out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare), and a few of his workouts hint that this Robert Evans homebred may have some talent.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 7
R8: 3,7
R9: 1,5,7,9,10,11
R10: 1,6,7,9

48 Bets, $24

Right off the bat, we’ve got a single that makes me nervous. The kickoff leg is the Grade 3 Athenia, and your favorite, #7 OFF LIMITS, is a horse I chased for most of 2016. Fittingly, right as I put her on my “never again” list, she turned a corner, winning three of four to this point in 2017 and earning a 105 Beyer Speed Figure in her Grade 3 Noble Damsel score. A repeat of that race, or even something close to it, would make her very tough, and if she doesn’t win, I don’t know who does. It’s a “hold your nose” single, but a single nevertheless.

The eighth is the Grade 3 Turnback the Alarm, and I thought this was a two-horse race. #3 MISS SKY WARRIOR is very good when she’s right, and the recent workouts indicate she may be in peak form. I’ll also use #7 ESKENFORMONEY, who gets a bit of class relief in this spot after chasing Forever Unbridled and Elate in her last two starts. If you want to pick one and single, I get it, but thanks to my single in the opening leg, I can cover my bases and use both.

The ninth is the Grade 3 Bold Ruler, and there are plenty of fun horses in here. #9 SEYMOURDINI returns off a long layoff, #7 STALLWALKIN’ DUDE has won 19 of 57 career starts, and both figure to take money. However, I want coverage, and I’ll get it with several value plays. #1 TALE OF S’AVALL may get plenty of pace to set up his late kick, #5 TOMMY MACHO has chased some of the top sprinters and milers around for most of the year, #10 MR. CROW was less than 3-1 in the Grade 1 Vosburgh and could be sitting on a bounce-back effort, and #11 DIVINING ROD was second in the Grade 2 Kelso and good enough to win this on his best day. Got enough storylines here? It’s a tremendous race, and kudos to the folks in the NYRA racing office for attracting so much talent (including several horses that wouldn’t be totally out of place at next weekend’s Breeders’ Cup).

We’ll close out the card with the Awad for 2-year-olds on turf. #6 WAR CHEST did something very few Shug McGaughey trainees do, which is win at first asking. He’ll likely be favored, and he could win, but watch the fifth carefully. If Congruity and Thunder Mesa don’t run well, his stock takes a hit. I’m four-deep here, and my top pick is a price. #9 DEVINE ENTRY wants as much distance as possible and stretches out past a sprint distance for the first time. He’s by Point of Entry, who did his best work at marathon distances, and Jose Ortiz getting the mount could signal that this improving colt is sitting on a big one. Given the solid form and likely price (he’s 8-1 on the morning line), I think he’s a must-use, and hopefully, he wins the payoff leg of the late Pick Four and keys a nice score for us!

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Belmont and Keeneland (10/21/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re two weeks away from the Breeders’ Cup, and Saturday’s cards at Belmont and Keeneland provide ample opportunities to build one’s bankroll. Belmont has a showcase day for New York-breds, while Keeneland’s slate is headlined by the Grade 2 Raven Run. I’ve got a pair of multi-race exotics tickets at each track, and I’ll analyze them below!

BELMONT PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 2,3,4,7
R2: 4
R3: 1,3,6
R4: 3,5,8
R5: 3,4

72 Bets, $36

We start off with what I think is the most wide-open race of the sequence. #7 APPEALING BRIEFS will probably be favored, but he’s 0-for-9 and has had many chances. I want coverage, and I’ll get it with three horses towards the inside. I’m most intrigued by #3 GRAND VALOUR, who never had a chance last time out given the early fractions and should improve with a faster pace.

My single comes in the second, which doubles as the first stakes race of the day. This is the Maid of the Mist, and I think #4 PURE SILVER will be very difficult to beat. She was 3-for-3 before getting into a suicidal speed duel with eventual Grade 1 Frizette winner Separationofpowers in the Spinaway. She’s clearly the fastest horse out of the gate, and if she gets an easy lead, she’ll be tough to run down.

I’m using the three logical horses in the Iroquois. #6 COZZY SPRING was the last horse I threw into the wager, simply because I needed to be covered in case she proves quickest out of the gate. I’m also going to use the two likely betting favorites in the Ticonderoga. #5 FIFTY FIVE gets significant class relief, and #8 TIZZELLE has never run a bad race, but I also want to make sure I use #3 BROKEN BORDER. She’s won four of her last five starts, all at Belmont, and her lone defeat came in a two-turn race against open company that did not set up for her late kick. 12-1 is way too big a price, especially if there’s a pace meltdown.

I’ll hope to close this out by going two-deep in the payoff leg, the Empire Classic. #3 TWISTED TOM will likely be favored and should probably win, but #4 CONTROL GROUP has won three in a row and will be prominent early in a race that doesn’t appear to have much early speed.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 3,8
R9: 2,5,7
R10: 1,4,5,6,8
R11: 3,8,9

90 Bets, $45

To say this sequence isn’t easy would be an understatement. I usually don’t like to put $45 tickets out there, and this ticket doesn’t have a single, but if you’re playing it, this is how I’d advise doing so.

I’ll kick it off by using the two likely choices in the Hudson. #8 T LOVES A FIGHT and #3 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY ran 1-2 in an allowance two back in Saratoga, and those two appear toughest in this spot. If you’ve got deeper pockets, you may want to throw in #5 CELTIC CHAOS, but I didn’t have the budget to do so.

I’ll go three-deep in the Mohawk. #5 OFFERING PLAN and #7 BLACK TIDE will take money, but I also need to use #2 NEVISIAN SKY, a stablemate of Offering Plan who should be flying late. He’ll be a much bigger price compared to that one, and Black Tide’s presence assures a legitimate pace.

I’m five-deep in the Empire Distaff, and this is the most puzzling race in a very puzzling sequence. Two longshots intrigue me in a race where I’m not sold on any of the favorites. #5 NO HAYNE NO GAYNE took a big step forward in her first start off a layoff earlier this month, while #6 BONITA BIANCA loves Belmont and has never run a bad race. Both are 10-1 and provide real value.

Finally, I’ll go three-deep to finish it out. #9 LULU’S POM POM was the victim of, shall we say, a questionable DQ last time out at Saratoga. She likely wins with a similar effort, but two intriguing prices merit consideration. #3 COSMOISELLE is a first-time starter bred up and down for the turf, while #8 SPA TREATMENT has run OK in two turf sprints and maintains rider Javier Castellano.

KEENELAND

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 1,8
R3: 1,5,7
R4: 5,7
R5: 1,2,5,10,11

60 Bets, $30

I found this sequence pretty challenging, especially given the payoff leg. With a little luck, we’ll get a price home along the way to make this pay a bit.

I’m going two-deep in the kickoff leg. #1 JEANNE’S SPEIGHT makes her first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, while #8 HONOR’S PARADE was claimed last out by Tom Amoss, who cuts this daughter of Parading back to a sprint (which should be a more agreeable route).

The third is a tough optional claimer with several stakes-quality horses. My top pick is #7 CONQUEST WINDYCITY due to his affinity for Keeneland, but his recent form indicates he may be headed the wrong way. As such, I’ll also use likely favorite #5 SEEKING THE SOUL and #1 SOCIETY BEAU, who returns to dirt and was an impressive allowance winner here in the spring.

The fourth features the shortest price in the sequence. #7 KIRBY’S PENNY has won four of her last five and will be a heavy favorite. I’m using her, but this spot represents a sizable step up in class, and I don’t think she’s a cinch. #5 CHINA GROVE, meanwhile, drops in class after spending most of her career knocking heads with stakes-quality opposition. She won a stakes race at this distance earlier in the year, and trainer Ben Colebrook has enjoyed a strong meet to this point.

We finish things off with a grass grab bag, and I needed to spread here. The most intriguing price of the five I used (to me, at least) is #2 MOUNTAIN MOMMA, who’s shown ample early speed in three starts at Arlington. Keeneland’s turf course is kind to early speed in route races, and Florent Geroux’s ridden very well here this fall. Having said that, while I think she’s a must-use at her 8-1 price, she’s certainly not a standout, and my advice is to go as deep as you can.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 2,7 (9)
R8: 2,3,9,13,14
R9: 3,4,7,9
R10: 4,5

80 Bets, $40*

See that asterisk? That’s because my ticket, as constructed, uses two also-eligibles in the second leg. If one or both fails to draw in, or if they draw in because one or two of my other three horses in that leg scratches, add #9 AMERICA’S TALE in the first leg.

That first leg is a confounding maiden race. I took a bit of a stand by going two-deep, and one horse I used is a big price. #7 ELUSIVE TRUTH ran well in her debut and should step forward, but #2 PRINCESSOF THE NYL outran her odds when third at 45-1 in her unveiling last month. Jack Van Berg has saddled a few winners this meet, and 15-1 seems like too big a price on a well-meant second-time starter from that barn.

The eighth is a turf sprint, and the key to this ticket’s construction is if the AE’s draw in. I think both #13 EILA and #14 MONAVISTA CROSSING are contenders, and if they get into the race, I need to have them on my ticket. I’ll also use three logical contenders. #2 CHERRY LODGE has speed, #3 SPELLKER won at this route in the spring, and #9 SMILING CAUSEWAY has never finished out of the exacta in five career starts.

The third leg is the Grade 2 Raven Run, and I’m four-deep, with my top pick being a big price. That’s #3 PINCH HIT, who has shown versatility in a strong 2017 campaign. She won the Dogwood last time out at this distance, and it’s a plus that she can win while rating or while being on or close to the lead. I’ll also use #4 NONNA MELA, #7 TEQUILITA, and #9 CLASSY TUNE, all of whom will take some play at the windows.

I’ll go two-deep to finish off the ticket. #4 FREEDOM seems like the lone speed on paper, and over a course that’s kind to such a running style, that’s a big plus. I’ll also use #5 HALLIE BELLE, who came off the bench running last time out at Laurel. She’s run pretty well in two career starts, and Saturday could be graduation day with another step forward.

Delta Downs Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 10/18/17 (Opening Night)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Wednesday is opening night at Delta Downs, one of my favorite tracks. The fields are usually pretty large, the multi-race exotics pools are solid, and on top of that, track announcer Don Stevens is one of the nicest, most versatile people in racing. I drafted him in the first-ever fantasy simulcast team draft for a reason (hi, Don!).

I’ve put together a pair of Pick Four tickets for the card, and I found both sequences pretty tricky. That said, here’s how I’ll play them!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #1

R1: 6
R2: ALL
R3: 3,4
R4: 1,5,8

60 Bets, $30

We start off with a single, and it’s not the type of single I usually play. #6 TAPSTER is 0-for-14 lifetime coming into this maiden race, but he’s been running against high-quality opposition for most of his career. His running lines are dotted with the names of several stakes horses, and he makes his first start for Karl Broberg, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. It’s a “hold your nose” single for me in some ways, but given the coverage I needed elsewhere, that’s the way things shook out.

Speaking of coverage, you’ll see that I’ve bought the second race, and for good reason. It’s a non-winners-of-two claimer, the type of race good friend Kurt Hoover refers to as “evil.” I did the math, and the 10 runners in the body of the field have lost a combined total of 206 races (if you want to add the two AE’s in there, that number rises to 237). I don’t have a clue who wins here, and hopefully, we get a price home to justify punching the “ALL” button.

I’m two-deep in the third. #3 LIBA looks strong for Broberg after winning first off the claim at Louisiana Downs, while #4 BEST GUESS has shown an affinity for Delta Downs and drops in class after two failed tries against allowance foes. Those two make the most sense to me in another race that’s drawn a full field of 10.

I’ll finish by going three-deep in a competitive claiming event. #5 COUCHE COUCHE figures to be favored, but he’s 0-for-3 at Delta and hasn’t won in a year and a half, so he’s no cinch. I want coverage, and I’ve found it with likely second choice #8 KEYSTONES STRIKE and live 8-1 shot #1 BLUE FORTY TWO, who’s notched three of his four career wins at Delta and gets top local rider Gerard Melancon. If you want to go even deeper, feel free. This isn’t an easy race, but I wanted to keep costs down a bit, so I settled on those three.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,2,3
R8: 1,3,6,7
R9: 2,4,8
R10: 6,7

72 Bets, $36

Before we dive in, it’s worth noting that there’s a 50-cent Pick Five starting in the sixth. If you’re playing that, I think 8-1 shot #6 MISS SID N SAY is a must-use. She’s won her last two dirt starts in runaways, likes Delta, and will be a square price against what I think is a vulnerable favorite (#8 OH DEAR LORD is 0-for-her-last-10, and 3-2 is just too short to take against what turned out to be a solid field for the level).

Moving on, the late Pick Four starts with a pair of wide-open races. I’m three-deep in the seventh and four-deep in the eighth, and I hope that’s deep enough. I honestly can’t tell you who’ll be favored in each of those races, and if you’ve got deeper pockets or an additional single elsewhere, hitting the “ALL” button once or twice may not be a bad strategy.

The ninth features the latest matchup in a cool little rivalry. #2 I HOPE and #8 SOUTHERN WIND have locked up several times, and I’m using both horses. However, neither is my top pick. I don’t think there’s a ton of early speed signed on, so my focus is on #4 IDE STANG YOU, who’s got one way of going. She’ll be flying out of the gate and figures to lead them as long as she can, which could be a while if nobody attempts to go with her.

I had to alter my ticket considerably following the scratch of #8 DARYLSLITTLEENGINE in the tenth. He was a single for me, so I took a horse out of the first leg on my original ticket and settled for going two-deep in the finale. I’ll use #6 WHERE’S CAIN (who’s done some of his best running at Delta) and #7 UNITAS (who could sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed).

Woodbine Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Canadian International, E.P. Taylor Day (10/15/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Sunday is Canadian International Day at Woodbine, and while that turf marathon and its sister race, the E.P. Taylor, aren’t quite as big as they were a generation ago, the two Grade 1 affairs headline a stacked card with plenty of wagering opportunities. Longtime readers of mine know I’m a sucker for the 20-cent minimum bets on multi-race wagers, and I’ve got three such tickets ahead of Sunday’s card. Let’s get to it!

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 3,4,8,9
R3: 10
R4: 4,5,9
R5: 2,7,8,9
R6: 1,2,7

144 Bets, $28.80

The first of my three tickets comes in the early Pick Five. My strategy is to spread around one key single, which doubles as my best bet of the day.

We’ll start off in the second race, a tricky maiden claiming event. The two favorites, #3 RELEASETHE GLACKEN and #4 CRIMSON RING, both have major questions to answer. The former ran well last time out but doesn’t have much of a resume to speak of other than that effort, while the latter was bet against better horses last month and didn’t run a jump. I’ll use both, and I’m also going to throw in #8 LAILAS PRINCESS and #9 SHEEGWEEHA. Lailas Princess has a few sharp efforts sprinting on synthetic at this level, while Sheegweeha has improved in every start and could benefit from the outside draw.

My best bet of the day comes in the third race. This is a maiden race for 2-year-olds, and I’m all-in on #10 WHERE’S ANTHONY, who had a lot go wrong in his debut last month. He broke slowly and encountered plenty of traffic, but he still rallied to finish third, beaten less than three lengths. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for a barn whose recent numbers with second-time starters are strong. Per DRF Formulator, trainer Scott Fairlie is 3-for-11 over the past two years with such runners, and if you only include races contested on the synthetic track, that number goes to 3-for-9. Long story short: If Where’s Anthony doesn’t win, I lose.

I’m chalk-heavy in the fourth race. #4 GIADA VEGAS will likely be favored, but she’s a type that finds ways to lose. I have to use her, but I’m also using #5 YOU’RE MINE and #9 SNIPPY. The former has run well three times for a strong local barn, while the latter took a big step forward at second asking and should be prominent early.

The fifth race is a maiden event for 2-year-old fillies, and I’m going pretty deep. #2 EESTI STAR and #8 MAXIXE will both take money, but their trainers’ horses often need a race or two to get going, so I wanted coverage. I found it with #7 LADY WITH CLASS and #9 SWEET SILENT SOUL. Lady With Class has two OK races to her credit, while Sweet Silent Soul goes out for a barn on a recent hot streak and could benefit from the outside draw.

If we’re still alive, we’ll look to score by going three-deep in the sixth. This is the Grade 2 Nearctic, and it’s drawn an interesting field of turf sprinters. It’s another race where I’m chalk-heavy. #7 COTAI GLORY is a European getting Lasix for the first time and is probably the one to beat, but #1 DOWSE’S BEACH and #2 WHITE FLAG are both in strong form and could win with their best efforts.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 4,5,9
R5: 2,7,8,9
R6: 1,2,7
R7: 2,8

72 Bets, $14.40

The first three legs of the early Pick Four are the same as the last three legs of the early Pick Five. I’ll finish this wager off by using both fillies entered in the Grade 3 Ontario Derby. #8 HOLY HELENA returns to her preferred synthetic surface, on which she won this year’s Queen’s Plate, while #2 GRIZZEL has run up against some very good horses and is 2-for-2 on Woodbine’s synthetic footing. I think one of them beats the boys, and hopefully, we’re cashing after it happens.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #9

R9: 3,4,6,8
R10: 4,8,9,10
R11: 4,9,10
R12: 5,8,11

144 Bets, $28.80

There’s also a late Pick Five wager that starts in the eighth, but in all honesty, I couldn’t put together a ticket that I felt comfortable playing. That race is not easy, and I couldn’t narrow down the rest of the ticket. As such, I’ll bypass that wager for this one, which boasts a guaranteed pool of $250,000.

As you can see, I’ve got plenty of coverage in all four legs, and the opening leg, the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor, may be the most wide-open race on the entire card. #6 NEZWAAH and #8 BLOND ME both have big chances coming over from Europe, and if the former runs back to her Group 1 score two back, she probably wins. However, #3 QUIDURA and #4 RAINHA DA BATERIA both love this turf course, and I need to use them. The latter seems like a big overlay at 10-1 on the morning line, especially since she hasn’t run a bad race in her last six starts, three of which came at the Grade 1 level. However, I’m against #7 RAIN GODDESS, who will likely take money shipping in for Aidan O’Brien. Her Timeform numbers simply don’t stack up to the Euros that will surround her in the starting gate, and I’ve spread elsewhere, so I’ll try to beat her (even though it wouldn’t be stunning if she went off favored in this race).

The 10th race is the Canadian International, and this is another event where the European contingent looks tough. I’m using all three of them: #4 IDAHO, #9 ERUPT, and #10 CHEMICAL CHANGE, who may be underbet despite running pretty much the exact same race every time out and getting Lasix for the first time. I’ll also throw in #8 MESSI, who was very unlucky in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer. He could’ve won that race with a better trip, and I’ll give him one more shot.

I’m three-deep in each of the last two races, and I’m using a few prices. My top pick in the 11th is #10 SEVENCOMINGOUT, who tried tougher company last time out after a solid debut. He’s back at the right level and will be tough if he runs back to the September 16th effort. I’m using #4 THIRD MAN IN as well, although he’s developing a habit of collecting smaller checks. Most notably, though, I’m throwing in #9 RASTA MAN, who’s been off a while but has been working well and has a few previous efforts that would fit in with this group. He’s 20-1 on the morning line, and that could be a knockout horse in this sequence.

We’ll finish with a claiming event going seven furlongs, and while I’m using one of the likely favorites, I’m also throwing in two big prices. #8 INCREDIBLE DEE has run well in each of his past two starts at this level and route, but his lone win came with a perfect trip, so he’s no cinch. Meanwhile, #5 WILSHIRE STAR (15-1) and #11 SPANISH EXPRESS (20-1) were must-uses for me, especially at their likely prices. Wilshire Star has run his best races at this route, while Spanish Express is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss two” theory. That occurs when a horse runs a bad race, goes to the sidelines, and needs his return race as a tightener. If you go back to the races he ran in May of this year, Spanish Express more than fits here, and he could be a massive price on the tote board.