2023 BREEDERS’ CUP: Friday Analysis And Selections
The 2023 Breeders’ Cup is upon us (and given the avalanche of bad news that’s hit the event ahead of this year’s renewal, it cannot come and go soon enough). The wagering menu is as robust as you’ll see all year long, and there are plenty of opportunities for enterprising handicappers to score.
This guide gives you my analysis into each Breeders’ Cup race on Friday. Generally speaking, the stronger my opinion is, the more in-depth my analysis will be.
Let’s dive in, shall we?
Juvenile Turf Sprint
I’m of two minds on the first of 14 championship races. On one hand, it sure looks like about half of these horses need the lead, which could result in a pace meltdown. On the other, you absolutely want to be on or near the lead going five furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita, so taking a stone closer doesn’t seem like the wisest course of action, either.
I’ve settled on #9 AMIDST WAVES (8-1), who won three in a row before a hard-luck second in the Indian Summer at Keeneland. She’s got some early speed, but has also shown she can settle just off the pace and capitalize on a first-run sort of trip. Flavien Prat signing on is also a really good thing, and I think we’ll get a fair price on a horse that’s shown plenty of ability to this point.
Others to consider: #1 CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4-1), #11 SLIDER (8-1)
Juvenile Fillies
If #7 TAMARA (4/5) takes to two turns, she probably wins, but is that a certainty? She’s going to be one of the shortest-priced favorites on the two-day program, and while I can’t sit here and tell you she doesn’t have a chance, I’ll go elsewhere with my top selection.
#9 BRIGHTWORK (12-1) won four in a row earlier this year, including the Grade 1 Spinaway. I think her last-out clunker may very well have been a bounce, and I like how she’s worked since that effort. Given all she accomplished in the first four starts of her campaign, I’m more than willing to give her another shot at what hits me as a significantly-overlaid price.
Others to consider: #1 CANDIED (4-1), Tamara, #8 ESPRIT ENCHANTE (20-1)
Juvenile Fillies Turf
My only significant stance is that I’m not sold on this race’s likely favorites. #11 SHE FEELS PRETTY (4-1) was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, and there’s nothing saying #6 PORTA FORTUNA (5-1) wants two turns.
I’m most intrigued by #5 CONTENT (15-1) and #7 GALA BRAND (12-1). The former looks much better if you draw a line through her two-back clunker, while the latter got no pace to run at last time out and has shown a very strong turn of foot. Having said that, it’s not like I’ve got an overwhelmingly strong opinion here.
Others to consider: Whichever prices tickle your fancy.
Juvenile
Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher each saddle three runners in what seems like an outstanding betting race. I think #2 PRINCE OF MONACO (4-1) is going to drift up a bit from the morning line price, and that happening would make him the value play of this field. His pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and anything close to his two-back romp at Del Mar would make him the one to beat.
I respect #6 LOCKED (7/2) as well. He was sensational breaking his maiden at Saratoga and overcame a wide trip to win the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. #10 MUTH (4-1), meanwhile, hits me as the contender to play against. He had a picture-perfect trip in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and draws a very, very wide post in this event. It’s not like he’s totally without a shot, but his likely price seems like an underlay.
Others to consider: #4 TIMBERLAKE (4-1), #9 FIERCENESS (6-1)
Juvenile Turf
I think Aidan O’Brien has this field over a barrel. The question is, which well-meant European runner do you prefer: #2 RIVER TIBER (3-1) or #8 UNQUESTIONABLE (4-1)?
For me, it’s the former. River Tiber went 3-for-3 to start his career before hooking a buzzsaw named Vandeek in back-to-back Group 1 races. There’s pedigree here that suggests two turns won’t be a problem, and my guess is jockey Ryan Moore had his pick of which runner to ride. He lands here, and that’s a pretty big vote of confidence.
In a race where it doesn’t seem like the American runners stack up particularly well, River Tiber is as close to a single as I have on the first of two Breeders’ Cup programs. I’ll have Unquestionable on a few tickets as a saver, but most of my action flows through your morning line favorite.
Others to consider: Unquestionable
Andrew Champagne 