BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,121.25
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Neither Fierceness nor Ontheonesandtwos ever looked like losers, though double payoffs suffered a bit due to three scratches in the latter race. Still, it was a pretty good day, as $40 in bets returned $202.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth and sixth, and I really, REALLY hope the fifth stays on the turf. I’ll have $20 win bets on #1 DYNADRIVE (race 5) and #4 SHOP LIFTING (race 6), and I’ll link them with a $5 cold double.
TOTAL WAGERED: $45.
ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS
Friday: 3-for-10
Meet: 65-for-216
Best Bet: Shop Lifting, Race 6
Longshot: Verstappen, Race 11
R1
Catire Vizcaya
Walstib
Secret Lover
#2 CATIRE VIZCAYA (3-1): Dueled through legitimate fractions in his debut before settling for second, and that day’s third-place finisher came right back to win. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and this one should be prominent from the jump; #8 WALSTIB (2-1): Ran well when second in his unveiling for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t usually fully cranked. Based on that, he’s a logical favorite, but I’d love to know why this barn also entered #1 STUNNEM; #3 SECRET LOVER (5-1): Had every reason to not run a jump in his debut after a terrible start, but while he was a distant fourth, he showed plenty of late interest. This barn has done well with its small string here this summer, and this is another that could step forward in the Travers Day lid-lifter.
R2
Golden Arm (MTO)
Barber entry
Ortus
BARBER ENTRY (9/5): I prefer #1 CITY MISCHIEF, who ran very well in defeat last time out in what doubled as his first effort since December. It’s true that he hasn’t won in a while, but many of his prior outings were against open company, not NY-breds; #2 ORTUS (3-1): Was second behind a much-the-best winner over yielding going last time out at Belmont. The inside draw can be tricky for closers, but we’ve also seen him show some tactical speed in the past, too; #9 ATHENRY (15-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out downstate and has been working steadily at the Spa. His two-back effort was actually pretty solid, and a repeat of that effort could get him a check at a big price.
R3
Mistical Curlin
Money Supply
St. Elmo
#4 MISTICAL CURLIN (2-1): Is at his best over an off track, which we’re likely to see at least early in the Saturday card, and the stretchout to two turns shouldn’t be a problem. His early speed should be an asset in a race without much of it elsewhere; #3 MONEY SUPPLY (9/5): Capitalized on a big class drop earlier in the meet and won going away over weaker competition in a restricted claiming event. He goes to a new barn here, which is always a question mark, but he’s got back speed figures that would certainly make him a major player; #2 ST. ELMO (8-1): Had a perfect trip in Indiana last time out, where he broke his maiden after being part of a very slow early pace. He probably has to step forward, but it’s also possible he’s embracing going two turns after three sprints to start his career.
R4
Scocciatore
Lord Captain
My Harbors Dream
#1 SCOCCIATORE (9/2): Stalked and pounced to win a similar race here earlier in the summer and is a candidate to do the same here. He clearly loves Saratoga and seems to be doing well for a barn that’s enjoyed a very solid meet; #6 LORD CAPTAIN (7/2): Very clearly didn’t enjoy the stretchout last time out and cuts back to one turn for this event. He was a good second two back going seven furlongs, and his lone start over a wet track was a win; #2 MY HARBORS DREAM (12-1): Has won two of three starts since being claimed by David Jacobson in April, and one of them was a solid last-out score at Delaware Park. This well-traveled gelding (a Washington-bred) has enough speed to sit close and be among an onslaught of pursuers as the field turns for home.
R5
Tonal Impact (MTO)
Flying P entry
Nobel
#1 DYNADRIVE (5-1): Gets a much-needed class drop after chasing graded stakes foes for quite a while. He loves this turf course, he won the Lure last year, and I think he’s got a big chance assuming this event stays on the lawn; #6 NOBEL (7/2): Comes over from Europe, where he most recently ran a close-up fourth in an 18-horse event at York. He’s proven at this distance, and trainer Brendan Walsh does good work with horses making their first starts in North America; #2 CATCH THAT PARTY (4-1): Has hit the board in five of his six local turf starts, and his recent off-the-turf race is an obvious throwout. The win two back at Belmont was sharp, Irad returns to the saddle, and his usual race gives him a chance in a race where I think likely favorite #7 JAMES ALOYSIUS is vulnerable.
R6
Shop Lifting
Cowgirl Charm
Colonial Rose
#4 SHOP LIFTING (6-1): Has been working very well for a trainer who sometimes doesn’t ask his first-time starters for a whole lot. This daughter of Into Mischief sold for $475,000 as a yearling, is out of a Grade 1-winning mare (one kin to top sprinter Trappe Shot), and this price hits me as a significant overlay; #6 COWGIRL CHARM (5-1): Sold for $160,000 at Keeneland despite a modest-at-first-glance pedigree, but there’s a lot of class on the dam’s side. This one is kin to five horses that have hit the track. They’re all winners, and the dam herself is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Cupid, among others; #2 COLONIAL ROSE (7/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group, having run second in her debut last month. She has every right to improve, but I’m not sure how strong that field she faced last time really was, and there are some intriguing prospects in this one.
R7
Elite Power
Gunite
Pipeline
#3 ELITE POWER (1/2): Has won eight in a row, including several Grade 1 events, and looms large in the Grade 1 Forego. His win in the Vanderbilt was excellent, we know he can handle seven furlongs, and his usual effort beats these; #2 GUNITE (6/5): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at my top pick last time out but came up a head short. He’s an honest horse who’s only been worse than third twice in 18 lifetime starts, and he figures to be prominent early on; #4 PIPELINE (12-1): Fell victim to one of the deadest rails in Saratoga history last time out, when he went from “loaded” to “empty” very, very quickly. I’m banking on an improved performance second off the bench, and he could spice up the exotics at a price.
R8
Daufuskie Island (MTO)
Souper Quest
Southern Horse
#13 SOUPER QUEST (3-1): Needs a scratch to draw in but looms large if he does. He romped in his debut and, in his most recent start, ran second to a Saratoga-loving turf sprinter who has since come back to win again; #12 SOUTHERN HORSE (7/2): Comes east after being purchased by David Jacobson earlier this year and has run some very strong races going short over the Santa Anita turf course. He’s been working steadily here, and he seems like a major player if he’s ready to go; #7 ACOUSTIC AVE (8-1): Is an obvious contender if the race gets moved to dirt, but there’s enough turf pedigree here to make him worth a play at a price. Damsire Street Boss is an excellent turf influence, and he gets Lasix for the first time in his first non-stakes race since a maiden-breaking score here last July.
R9
Arabian Lion
Fort Bragg
New York Thunder
#6 ARABIAN LION (2-1): Has blossomed into a top-tier 3-year-old, albeit a bit later than many expected, and he looms large from a cushy outside post in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. His last two races were excellent, and he’s been working up a storm in California ahead of this event; #4 FORT BRAGG (5/2): Cuts back after winning the Grade 3 Dwyer, and that day’s runner-up did everything but win the Grade 2 Jim Dandy next time out. I’m not sure seven furlongs is his preferred trip, but talent-wise, he most definitely fits; #5 NEW YORK THUNDER (5/2): Ran a hole in the wind in annexing the Grade 2 Amsterdam, where he earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s 4-for-4 and has every right to be a freak, but repeating that race is a tall order, and that’s what he may have to do.
R10
Echo Zulu
Goodnight Olive
Wicked Halo
#6 ECHO ZULU (7/5): Loves Saratoga and ran a career-best race in dominating the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. The Grade 1 Ballerina is a taller task, but it’s not like she beat weaklings last time out, and I think she’ll be extremely tough to beat here; #7 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (9/5): Is likely a horror-trip third in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff away from a nine-race win streak, and she got back on the beam last time out at Belmont. Seven furlongs is definitely her preferred distance, the draw is a plus, and she was impressive in winning this race a year ago; #5 WICKED HALO (8-1): Has butted heads with a bunch of these in the past and was a neck back of my second choice two starts ago. She’s 2-for-2 over the Saratoga track, won the Grade 2 Prioress a season ago, and could sit an ideal stalking trip at a price.
R11
Verstappen
Pioneering Spirit
Stone Age
#2 VERSTAPPEN (8-1): Ran second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, where the frontrunner got an ideal trip and never stopped. I think the pace will be a bit faster here, and that this gelding will love a return to a distance where he won the Grade 2 Elkhorn earlier this year; #5 PIONEERING SPIRIT (8-1): Has won four in a row and scratched out of the John’s Call to run here, which seems like a vote of confidence from a high-percentage barn. Perhaps he needs to improve, but few are better at moving horses forward on this circuit than Linda Rice; #7 STONE AGE (6/5): Ran second in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and makes his first start for Chad Brown. He’s a logical favorite, and I wouldn’t hate him at odds of 5/2 or so. Having said that, he hasn’t won in more than a year and has had several logical chances to break through. Maybe he makes me look like an idiot, but I simply can’t back him at his likely price.
R12
Forte
National Treasure
Mage
#1 FORTE (7/5): Won a controversial renewal of the Jim Dandy to prep for the Grade 1 Travers, and I think he looms large despite going against the winners of all three Triple Crown races. This is his third start off a break that included a scratch from the Kentucky Derby, where he would’ve been the favorite, and I think he stamps himself as the best 3-year-old male with a win in the Midsummer Derby; #5 NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1): Went wire-to-wire to win the Grade 1 Preakness two back before tiring in the Belmont. I don’t see much other early speed in this race, and if the track is once again playing kindly to horses on the front end, he could lead them a long way; #4 MAGE (4-1): Won the Kentucky Derby, was third in the Preakness, and ran a good second in the Grade 1 Haskell. He’s a consistent sort that will do his best running late, and we already know this 10-furlong distance fits him like a glove.
R13
Coalville (MTO)
Brown entry
Conversing
BROWN ENTRY (7/5): The odds hit me as a bit of an underlay, but both #1 RIGHT TO WIN and #1A GROWTH CAPITAL hit me as contenders in here, and you’re getting both for the price of one. The latter, in particular, ran a really good race at Kentucky Downs last fall and may be the one they have to run down; #3 CONVERSING (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since October, but ran well twice last summer and goes out for a barn that does very well with horses coming back off of long layoffs. First-time Lasix is a big plus, as is the continued presence of John Velazquez; #8 TORIGO (6-1): Ran okay to be second in his comeback race in July downstate and could move forward second off the layoff. His connections thought enough of him to try the Grade 2 Pilgrim last fall, and it’s possible he’s got room to move forward in what’s just his fourth career outing.
Andrew Champagne 