Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/25/23)

Posted on August 24, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $959.25

One of the most annoying words in horse racing made its way into Friday’s Saratoga card. It’s one I’ve never seen before at the Spa, and one I hope to never see again.

If you look at the scheduled distances of today’s turf routes, you don’t see an exact distance. You see an “about” distance. I understand the reason behind this (moving the portable rail to preserve the turf course). Having said that, with one notable exception (the downhill turf course at Santa Anita), “about” distances hit me as a bad look.

Take it from this angle: Here in horse racing, we apparently can’t give you exact distances, we can’t time races consistently, some high-profile courses can’t grow or maintain grass, and we can’t keep major computer groups out of our pools. Tell me again why a novice who’s never been to a track before would invest in horse racing over sports betting, please.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My longshot of the day ran third, so I dropped $50.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on my best bet of the day. That’s #6 FIERCENESS in the sixth, who’s a single for me in $20 doubles starting in that race that end with #3 HEADLAND and #8 ONTHEONESANDTWOS in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday: 3-for-10
Meet: 62-for-206

Best Bet: Fierceness, Race 6
Longshot: Original, Race 4

Moonlight
Walley World
Feltrinelli

#15 MOONLIGHT (7/2): Needs a bunch of scratches to draw into the Friday opener but merits a big chance if he does. He did everything but win in his debut, where he came up a neck short after a wide trip; #5 WALLEY WORLD (4-1): Has scratched out of several races due to the weather issues at the Spa and is bred to love the turf. Chad Brown has enlisted Flavien Prat to ride, and he looks like a well-meant first-time starter; #4 FELTRINELLI (5-1): Sold for $400,000 at the OBS sale this past year and boasts a series of strong workouts for red-hot trainer George Weaver. This son of Uncle Mo looks like a runner and is another with a big shot in a wide-open event.

Vax
Our Rosie Diamonds
Trust the Numbers

#3 VAX (5/2): Takes a big drop first off the claim for Linda Rice, which is sometimes a red flag. However, this is far from an inspiring bunch she faces in this spot, and her two local works hint that she’s doing well ahead of this event; #4 OUR ROSIE DIAMONDS (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but was a good second against similar last time out. She lost to a massive class-dropper that day after doing a lot of the dirty work up front; #5 TRUST THE NUMBERS (2-1): May very well go favored in here, but I have my doubts. This is a $160,000 yearling purchase now running for 10% of that price, she hasn’t run since March, and she’s been working at Monmouth, which isn’t as big a disqualifying factor as it was a few years ago but is still noteworthy. To me, this is a favorite you’re supposed to try to beat.

Self Isolation (MTO)
Roses for Debra
Bubble Rock

#5 ROSES FOR DEBRA (1/2): Has won six of eight carer outings and looms large in the Smart N Fancy. One of those wins came in the Grade 3 Caress earlier in the meet, and she was very, very impressive that day against a good group; #2 BUBBLE ROCK (3-1): Was third behind my top pick in the Caress and may not have cared much for a turf course that had some give in it. She runs very well over firm turf courses, and she’s likely to get her desired footing in this spot; #4 POPPY FLOWER (5-1): Is another that has shown she’s better over firm going and was one-paced in the Caress. There’s some speed in here, and she could very well rally for a piece of it.

Dust Devil (MTO)
Original
High Tide

#3 ORIGINAL (8-1): Goes to the barn of Rick Dutrow, which is as powerful a move as it was 15 years ago now that the outfit is heating up a bit. He’s got plenty of back class and is a major player at a price if Dutrow can get him back or anywhere close to that form; #2 HIGH TIDE (5/2): Tried much tougher competition last time out and was eased home. He was competitive two and three back against similar stock, and his best efforts have come going two turns on turf; #5 LANDBISCUIT (3-1): Was put up via DQ last time out at this level and route after being up close throughout. Joel Rosario rides back when he probably had a few options, and he figures to be prominent from an early stage once again.

Prove Right
Joking Way
Mr Bob

#1 PROVE RIGHT (3-1): Capitalized on the class drop with an easy win last time out at this route against a few horses that also show up in this spot. He’s been working well since and looks to add his second win of the meet in what seems like a logical spot; #6 JOKING WAY (6-1): Exits a key race at Ellis Park, where he ran second behind and in front of next-out winners. Linda Rice claimed him that day, and we all know how dangerous she is with new acquisitions; #7 MR BOB (15-1): Hasn’t been since since trying a few races on the road to the Kentucky Derby earlier this year. Maybe he didn’t like Gulfstream, and maybe those races were just too long for him. His sprints last year were sharp, and if he’s ready to run, the morning line price is an overlay.

Fierceness
Wajda
Apollo Ten

#6 FIERCENESS (2-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and has every right to be a runner. He’s been working lights-out over this track with a series of sharp gate drills, and if he runs back to those workouts, look out; #4 WAJDA (5-1): Makes his first start for Chad Brown and hammered for $425,000 at the OBS sale. He’s followed that up with a few sharp works here that hint he, too, has plenty of talent; #3 APOLLO TEN (8-1): Hasn’t found the easiest spot for his debut, but seems well-meant and has a superb gate work three works back over the Oklahoma track. Christophe Clement isn’t regarded as a top-tier first-out trainer, but his numbers are solid, and I can’t completely ignore him at his likely price.

Headland
Ontheonesandtwos
You Look Cold

#3 HEADLAND (8/5): Has won two in a row, including a similar race earlier this summer, and seems to have rebound her best form as a 7-year-old mare. First-call rider Jose Ortiz hops aboard for Linda Rice, and a repeat of her last two efforts will make her tough in here; #8 ONTHEONESANDTWOS (5-1): Draws a cushy outside post and has flashed plenty of talent in the past. Her two-back win at Churchill was excellent, and she had every right to need her last-out clunker given that it was her first start in more than a year; #1 YOU LOOK COLD (4-1): Had an excuse last time out, when she didn’t break well, was rushed up, and tired to finish a distant third. She has plenty of prior efforts that are far better than that one, and Joel Rosario knows her pretty well.

Peak Popularity (MTO)
Madaket entry
Anatolian

Being incredibly honest, I found this race impossible to decipher. The favored entry looks tough, but if those horses aren’t ready to fire, I don’t have any particular confidence in any others.

Nest
Idiomatic
Clairiere

#5 NEST (4/5): Returned with a flourish to win the Grade 2 Shuvee and may well be riding a five-race win streak if not for a horrible ride in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff last fall. Simply put, her usual effort beats this bunch in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign, which I REALLY wish was still a mile and a quarter; #1 IDIOMATIC (3-1): Overcame a slow start to win the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap and has run several big speed figures in the past. This is certainly a class test, but she’s got plenty of early speed and should be prominent from the jump; #6 CLAIRIERE (5/2): Is as easy a horse to root for as any in training, having won multiple Grade 1 races and banked more than $3.1 million. She did not, however, seem to have any excuse in the Shuvee, and my top pick may be even sharper second off the bench.

R10

Cowichan
Bourbon and Honey
Oolong Hai

#2 COWICHAN (3-1): Ran well off the bench when last seen at Keeneland, and that race has produced several next-out winners. She’s had plenty of chances, and this is probably a “now or never” spot, but this doesn’t seem to be a field of world-beaters, either; #6 BOURBON AND HONEY (8-1): Has run once, in an off-the-turf race more than a year ago, but this barn is excellent with horses coming off of long breaks and she’s bred to love the lawn. It also helps that both that race’s winner and second-place finisher came back to win at next asking; #9 OOLONG HAI (6-1): Looks like the main speed in here, for sure, given several of her efforts at Gulfstream and Belmont. She’s definitely got stamina concerns, but she also seems like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/23)

Posted on August 22, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,009.25

The Wilson chute was built prior to last year’s meet for a few different reasons. It was supposed to cater to milers who would otherwise have to cut back to seven furlongs or, horror of all horrors, stretch out to a mile and an eighth.

In the opinion of this handicapper/writer, Saratoga is overusing it. I said from the outset that I hoped NYRA wouldn’t be cutting back on two-turn dirt racing. Admittedly, the Wilson chute has seen the lion’s share of the off-the-turf races this summer (LOTS of them), but it sure seems like we’re not seeing as many nine-furlong races as we used to at the Spa.

Stuff like this, and the new uphill turf course at Santa Anita, gives me pause. I like quirky courses. They’re fun. Having said that, it sure seems like tracks will literally do ANYTHING to make sure most thoroughbreds campaigned in 2023 don’t have to run two turns.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Many of my top picks ran second or third, and that’s what happened to B D Saints. After scratches, I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, which houses my live longshot of the day. 6-1 isn’t an insane price, but it hits me as a considerable overlay on #6 SUN AND WIND. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and I’ll key her up and down in $5 exactas that also use #3 LADY ARWEN and #4 AWESOME CZECH.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 1-for-10
Meet: 59-for-196

Best Bet: Technical Analysis, Race 9
Longshot: Sun and Wind, Race 5

Alterina
Cause I’m Elegant
Strange Fruit

We start off with a puzzler where I just don’t have a strong opinion. I think it’s possible #6 ALTERINA (9/2) improves second time out for a hot barn. Beyond that, I’ve got nothing for you here.

Instamatic
Adelphi entry
Detective Tom

#7 INSTAMATIC (7/2): Didn’t break well in his debut, where he was favored. He did at least do some running late for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, and I’m expecting a big step forward; ADELPHI ENTRY (4-1): I most prefer #1A HARD PAR, who needs a scratch to draw into the field. He ran second in his unveiling at a big price, and any sort of improvement would give him a big shot; #4 DETECTIVE TOM (3-1): Comes in off of a strong gate drill and is bred to love the lawn. He’s a son of The Factor, whose offspring tend to prefer the turf, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride.

Bold Endeavor (MTO)
Kuramata
Easter

#6 KURAMATA (6/5): Had every right to need his last-out effort off a long break, but ran very well and was beaten just a neck. It’s safe to assume he’s had some issues in his career, but he’s a sharp horse when he’s right and he’s a very logical favorite; #3 EASTER (2-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and has danced some big dances. He was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Man o’ War, and he’d benefit from a fast pace up front; #4 MAIN EVENT (6-1): Also ran in that July 30th race and set the pace before tiring late. That was his first run in nearly a year, and this barn’s been winning races at a very strong clip lately. He could go early and prove tough to catch.

Classic Mark
Complete Agenda
Big Bobby

#3 CLASSIC MARK (2-1): Drops back in for a tag after a win over starter allowance foes downstate. The Linda Rice barn must be respected, and I like horses cutting back in distance at these one-mile races, rather than ones stretching out; #6 COMPLETE AGENDA (9/5): Hasn’t won in a while but has faced significantly better horses of late. He chased the likes of Ouster last time out going much longer, and his last victory came at this one-mile distance; #7 BIG BOBBY (9/2): Is a puzzling sort coming in off of an 83-length defeat (yes, you read that correctly). The drop off of a few clunkers is a concern, but he’s run well over this surface in the past and is a contender on his best day.

Sun and Wind
Lady Arwen
Awesome Czech

#6 SUN AND WIND (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut and may have simply bounced last time out (an unlucky trip didn’t help matters). The August 9th work jumps off the page, and I think she presents real value at or near the morning line price; #3 LADY ARWEN (even): Tired in her debut earlier this summer, when she rushed up after a tardy start. She has every right to move forward at second asking, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez opts to ride back; #4 AWESOME CZECH (5/2): Didn’t do much running in her unveiling last month, but she had every right to need that debut. She’s bred to get better with distance and experience, and the stretch-out to seven furlongs should help her.

High Oak (MTO)
Dubb entry
Sosua Summer

DUBB ENTRY (2-1): Both runners can win, but I prefer #2B OXYMORE. He owns a stakes win at this route in last summer’s Skidmore, and if he’s ready to run in his 3-year-old debut, I think he’s the most likely winner; #5 SOSUA SUMMER (6-1): Is a different animal at Saratoga, where he moved to 2-for-2 after a score in an allowance race last month. That was a career-best effort, and while this is a pretty tough spot, he seems to be going the right way for trainer Bill Mott; #9 FAUCI (8-1): Hasn’t won in more than two years, but was a good second last time out and hasn’t been worse than third in five local starts. Flavien Prat hopping aboard is a good sign, and he should be moving late at a bit of a price.

Bustin Bay
Sweet Mystery
Mia Bea Star

#1 BUSTIN BAY (even): Has won three of her last four starts, including a score in the first race of the meet going two turns. She’s won three of six local starts, and is a candidate to notch her 11th win overall in 34 lifetime outings; #6 SWEET MYSTERY (2-1): Cuts back to a mile after finishing second going two turns last time out. She hasn’t won in a while, but she can make up ground late and draws well in this particular spot; #4 MIA BEA STAR (6-1): Ran well to win going a mile downstate two starts ago and wasn’t far behind my top pick last time out. Her record looks far better if you toss her races over wet tracks, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

Vitaemi
To a T
Meraviglioso

#8 VITAEMI (3-1): Makes her second start off a brief layoff in this spot and draws a cushy outside post. David Jacobson’s barn has heated up in the back half of the meet, and she seems like the one they’ll have to catch; #2 TO A T (9/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but has also been running against higher-quality competition. The drop in class could easily wak her up, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options; #7 MERAVIGLIOSO (6-1): Is another without a trip to the winner’s circle recently, but she ran well last time out to finish second against similar stock. A similar effort in this race puts her right there with a chance to break the drought.

Technical Analysis
Consumer Spending
Fluffy Socks

#8 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Has never looked like a loser in any of her three local starts and looms large in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. She’s one of several contenders in here trained by Chad Brown, and she should be able to dictate terms from the jump in an attempt to win this race for the second year in a row; #2 CONSUMER SPENDING (3-1): Comes in off of two stakes wins in a row at Monmouth Park. She’s won three graded stakes races, retains the services of Joel Rosario, and could have every chance to come running late; #4 FLUFFY SOCKS (9/2): Gets significant class relief after chasing tough rivals in the Grade 1 Diana last time out. She won a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs two starts ago and was second in this very race last year behind my top pick.

R10

Toofareastiswest
War Officer
Sacred Rhyme

#9 TOOFAREASTISWEST (5/2): Has run well in all four of his career starts and may have moved too soon going a bit longer last time out. The cutback in distance should suit him here, and it doesn’t seem like he’s tackling any monsters in the Thursday finale; #5 WAR OFFICER (5-1): Debuted with a clunker in an off-the-turf race, but he’s bred to love the lawn and is eligible to take a big step forward. This son of War Front is out of a Galileo mare, and I think he’s doing what he wants to do here; #2 SACRED RHYME (4-1): Had a rough start last time out and didn’t do much running, but his debut was fine and he’s a contender if he runs back to that. The recent Monmouth Works are a question mark, but if you liked him at 7/2 last time out, you may want to give him another shot at a slightly bigger price here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/23/23)

Posted on August 21, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,034.25

Wednesday’s card begins Travers week at Saratoga. With it comes logical speculation, given that the 3-year-old male picture is about as defined as a kaleidoscope at this point. The winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont are set to square off, which makes for a fun race.

If you think that makes for an opportunity for a horse to separate itself from the rest of the division, though, remember something. The Travers has housed the winners of those three races three times…and NONE of those races were won by any of those horses. This most recently happened in 2017, when West Coast beat Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, and Tapwrit.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I went against what I thought was a beatable favorite in the fifth. In that sense, I was right. However, that horse ran second and busted up $24 of exacta tickets. As losses go, I can live with that one.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: After the trip he had last time out, I need to bet #8 B D SAINTS in the sixth. I’ll have a $20 win bet on that one, and I’ll play $5 doubles singling him that finish with #4 PIONEERING SPIRIT and #8 SY DOG in the seventh (the John’s Call).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday: 4-for-10
Meet: 58-for-186

Best Bet: B D Saints, Race 6
Longshot: Cherokee Cottage, Race 10

McTigue
L’Imperator
Jimmy P

#9 MCTIGUE (7/2): Romped in a minor stakes race over fences here a few weeks ago and looms a logical favorite in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. This well-traveled gelding tried world-class company at Cheltenham earlier this year, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives him a big chance; #1 L’IMPERATOR (9/2): Did plenty of running during his flat career, when he won multiple stakes races, and he may be just as good over fences. He thumped a weaker group here earlier this summer, and he should get plenty of pace to chase; #2 JIMMY P (6-1): Had no trouble with handicap-level foes last time out, when he jogged by more than 10 lengths. That came at a longer distance, so we know stamina shouldn’t be an issue, and he’s another that should be going the right way late.

Bustin Shout
Perfect Munnings
Unflappable Max

#3 BUSTIN SHOUT (5/2): Capitalized on a great trip last time out, when he scored by three lengths on a drop in class. He goes back to NY-bred company for this one, so while it’s for a higher claiming price, this is actually probably a weaker group; #4 PERFECT MUNNINGS (even): Is a major contender if he’s ready to run off of an eight-month break. He’s a stakes-winner that’s run up against some strong horses in the past, which begs the question, why is he in for a $25,000 tag?; #7 UNFLAPPABLE MAX (6-1): Flopped last time out going two turns at Finger Lakes, but ran very well to win two back going much shorter. I think he’s a better one-turn horse. That’s the route he gets, and he attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., when that rider probably had several options.

Jacobson entry
Bring Me a Check
Slipstream

JACOBSON ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1 MID DAY IMAGE, who tired going two turns in the Lure last time out. That was over a yielding turf course he probably hated, and his turf sprints earlier in the year were very solid; #6 BRING ME A CHECK (9/2): Was a head away from winning his third start in a row in his local debut. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which gives Tyler Gaffalione some options; #5 SLIPSTREAM (8-1): Is one of two trained by Christophe Clement and should be running well late beneath Joel Rosario. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but he got no pace to chase last time out and salvaged a good third.

Slapintheface
Mission Hill
Tony O

#5 SLAPINTHEFACE (5/2): Had zero pace to chase last time out at Belmont, but he still managed to rally to finish beaten less than a length. That was his first start since November, to boot, and any sort of step forward would make this gelding tough to beat; #1 MISSION HILL (7/2): Ran second in an off-the-turf race last time out, but he’s bred to love the lawn. This son of Street Boss has turf pedigree on the top and the bottom, and Rosario sees fit to ride back for Bill Mott; #6 TONY O (4-1): Gets back to the turf, which is clearly his preferred surface. He’s had several chances, and this barn has been cold all summer long, but his usual race likely gets him a piece of this one.

Red Moon
Kantarmaci entry
Disruption

#6 RED MOON (9/5): Drops back into allowance company after running against stakes foes in her last two starts. This barn has been sending out runners all summer long, and she might’ve moved a bit early last time out going two turns on turf; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/2): I’m more bullish on #1 APRIL ANTICS, who did everything but win last time out going a bit longer. This one-mile distance almost certainly suits her better, and she should have enough tactical speed to sit a dream trip; #3 DISRUPTION (5/2): May have needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first try since December. She gets both Lasix and blinkers in this spot, and a return to her fall-2022 form would likely give her a chance.

B D Saints
Mischief Joke
Dixie Pharaoh

#8 B D SAINTS (7/2): Boasts the rarely-seen “horrific journey” running line from his last start, and that’s an accurate description. He’s since moved to Linda Rice’s barn and added blinkers, and a smooth trip here would make him strictly the one to beat; #3 MISCHIEF JOKE (9/5): Had every chance last time out, when he ranged up in mid-stretch and couldn’t get by the winner. On figures, he looms large, but I just can’t get that stretch run out of my head, and I can’t pick him on top; #5 DIXIE PHARAOH (8-1): Made up some ground late in his debut for a trainer whose first-time starters usually need a race. His pedigree says he wants more distance, which he gets here, and I think he’s sitting on a step forward at a bit of a price.

Pioneering Spirit
Sy Dog
Burning Bright

#4 PIONEERING SPIRIT (5/2): Has found new life since being switched to the turf this past spring. He’s won his last four starts, including a race earlier this summer, and he makes a lot of sense in the John’s Call; #8 SY DOG (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but ran a strong race here last summer when fourth in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. Maybe he hasn’t stepped forward since his first few starts, but he should like this marathon distance and has every right to run a big one here; #3 BURNING BRIGHT (12-1): Hasn’t found the winner’s circle since 2021, but he goes out for a scorching-hot barn and is bred to want this exact trip. He’s got enough speed to make the lead early on beneath Luis Saez, and he could be the one they have to catch.

Rockstar Red
Sixwillberich
Mufrih

#4 ROCKSTAR RED (7/2): Comes back to turf after running third in a dirt race last time out. His two-back effort was very strong, as he ran second beaten just a head. Flavien Prat stays aboard, and this doesn’t seem like a field of world-beaters; #9 SIXWILLBERICH (8-1): Has stepped forward in his last two starts, including a last-out second at this level and route last month. I’m not sure how strong the field he ran against that day really was, but then again, he doesn’t have to run a massive race to be competitive against these, either; #10 MUFRIH (5-1): Comes north after five races at Gulfstream Park and has run competitive figures over that surface. It’s often tough for Gulfstream form to travel to New York, but Luis Saez climbs up for a high-percentage outfit.

Radio Red
Aggregation
Straight Arrow

#6 RADIO RED (7/2): Ran second in the Mike Lee at Belmont and comes in off of a string of sharp drills downstate. His record looks miles better if you toss his efforts over muddy tracks, and his last two speed figures show he may be improving with age and experience; #4 AGGREGATION (5-1): Has been gelded since a last-out clunker, which looks a bit better now given that the top two finishers both came back to win again. He was favored in a $150,000 stakes race just two starts ago, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he found his form here; #1 STRAIGHT ARROW (8-1): Has won two in a row, and the last one was at this route a few weeks ago. This lightly-raced 4-year-old has improved with every start to date, and he could continue moving forward in what hits me as a wide-open event.

R10

Accept the Outcome
Cherokee Cottage
Negra Gata

#11 ACCEPT THE OUTCOME (7/2): Drops in for a tag off of a disappointing run last time out at Belmont. However, her two-back race at Aqueduct was pretty sharp, and I’m anticipating a bounce-back effort in the Wednesday finale; #9 CHEROKEE COTTAGE (12-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut on dirt, but she’s bred for turf and comes in off of a much-improved workout. I’m expecting improvement in her second career start, and I think we’ll get the morning line price; #8 NEGRA GATA (9/2): Ships up from Maryland, where she ran second against maiden special weight foes a few weeks ago. Her two turf sprints are the best races she’s run, and Saez landing here is a plus.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/20/23)

Posted on August 19, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.25

My apologies for a bonkers schedule of posting content this week. I’ve been reeling ever since my travel misadventures earlier in the week (which brought out some members of the “Andrew posted it, so it’s a cardinal sin” club on Twitter), and I’ve been trying to get my body and mind back to normal ever since.

I’m anticipating returning to such a schedule with Wednesday’s content. By then, I also sincerely hope whoever is doing a rain dance in upstate New York decides to stop.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: The 11th was taken off the turf, which cancelled my late Pick Four ticket.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where I’m not at all sold on morning line favorite #1 CATHERINE WHEEL. I’ll play exactas going against that one. My $4 plays use #3 MOST OF ALL and #5 CANDIED on top of those two, #6 MUNNY ROCKETTE, and #10 ELLA ELIZABETH underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 5-for-11
Meet: 54-for-176

Best Bet: Chalky Cat, Race 10
Longshot: Most of All, Race 5

Serpe entry
Red Hot Chick
My Lion

SERPE ENTRY (5-1): Both #1 FAST KIMMIE and #1A MISCREANT can win this. The former has plenty of back class and drops down after two races that weren’t bad, while the latter comes back to turf and has a big shot if she draws in off the AE list; #8 RED HOT CHICK (10-1): Was one-paced last time out in her first try against winners, but that was a fairly fast race for the level. This is probably the right spot for her, and she seems like a contender at a bit of a price; #3 MY LION (7/2): Is a European shipper getting Lasix for the first time, which always gets my attention. She hadn’t been running in the classiest of races overseas, but it’s also not as though she has to be much in order to win her first stateside start.

Alpine Queen
Sue Ellen Mishkin
Backed by Gold

#4 ALPINE QUEEN (2-1): Is one of several class-droppers in this spot, but gets my attention because she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well. The rider switch to Luis Saez is a big one, and it helps she ran big to win here a season ago; #5 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN (3-1): Comes in after tiring against a pair of starter allowance fields, and this is a significantly easier spot. She definitely wants to be on the lead, which could be an issue with so much other zip signed on, but she’s also got every right to wake up on the class drop; #2 BACKED BY GOLD (8-1): Hasn’t shown much in her last few starts, but she might be the only closer in this race. She does have form from 2022 that’s not bad, and I think she’s a threat to clunk up for a piece of it.

Ok Honey (MTO)
Aziza
Tass

#1 AZIZA (3-1): Won two in a row before an off-the-turf clunker at Laurel last time out. She gets back to her preferred surface in this spot, Flavien Prat hops back aboard, and she should be prominent from the jump; #3 TASS (5/2): Found some strong form last year when she won a stakes race at Colonial Downs, and her best race would beat these. She was third against similar without much of an excuse last time, though, and Luis Saez opts to ride another runner; #6 CAFE FLEUR (2-1): Came off a long layoff to run second last time out. These connections merit respect, but the likely pace scenario is a concern for this one-run closer, and she didn’t beat much two back before going to the sidelines.

Amidst Waves
She’s Fire
Gram

#3 AMIDST WAVES (8/5): Comes in off of two wins in a row, including one in the Colleen at Monmouth. This barn is red hot at the moment, and any further progression would make the likely favorite tough in the Bolton Landing; #5 SHE’S FIRE (4-1): Won nicely two starts back before not getting her desired trip in the Colleen. A repeat of the two-back effort would give her a genuine shot, and we may get a slightly-bigger price given the last-out clunker; #4 GRAM (7/2): Overcame some trouble to win her local debut last time out. This is a much tougher group, to be sure, but Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement and she should be moving the right way late.

Candied
Most of All
Munny Rockette

#5 CANDIED (7/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher off of a string of exceptional gate works. The big field may ensure we get a bettable price, and I think this daughter of Candy Ride is an exciting prospect; #3 MOST OF ALL (10-1): Makes her first start for Bill Mott and also has some strong drills from the gate to her credit. Mott runs two here, and while my third choice will get plenty of attention at the windows, this one may be the better value; #6 MUNNY ROCKETTE (6-1): Hammered for a cool million earlier this year at the OBS sale and merits respect based on her work there. The work tab looks fine, and she’s got every right to be a runner.

Classy Mischief (MTO)
Memorialize
Snow Dance

#7 MEMORIALIZE (4-1): Had a very eventful debut at Colonial Downs last month, as she had major equipment trouble after a horrible start. Somehow, she rallied for second, and it’s safe to assume she got a lot out of that initial start; #10 SNOW DANCE (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut at this route earlier in the meet. The outside draw isn’t ideal, but Lezcano rides back and she’s eligible to move forward with a start under her belt; #8 LAMORNA (7/2): Started slowly in her debut going shorter, but did kick on late to be beaten less than two lengths. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be much of a problem, and the recent bullet drill says she’s doing well at the moment.

Mount Up
Chileno
Pledgeofallegiance

#4 MOUNT UP (8-1): Ran second at this route last time out against similar, but was wide that day and lost a fair bit of ground. Irad sees fit to ride back for Pletcher, and I’d be pretty surprised if we got the morning line price come post time; #10 CHILENO (8-1): Won a starter allowance at this route not long ago for his first win in more than a year. This is probably a tougher group, but the Wilson chute is a tricky route and there’s every chance he’s touting himself as a “horse for course;” #3 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (6-1): Was fourth in the slop going longer early in the meet. This is probably a better distance for him, and his wins two and three back were both pretty sharp.

Magico
Digitize
Black Rain

#2 MAGICO (3-1): Ran second in his debut, which came over an off track at Belmont Park. He was nearly 10 lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher and seems to be training well up here ahead of his second career start; #7 DIGITIZE (5/2): Is the other half of a solid 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. He’s run okay a few times, but the three-month layoff is a concern, and while Monmouth Park works aren’t as much of a disqualifying factor for this barn as they used to be, it’s still worth noting he’s been down there, not up here, for quite a while; #9 BLACK RAIN (9/2): Makes his first start for Todd Pletcher, who’s enlisted Irad to ride. It’s not easy to debut going seven furlongs, so that’s a question mark, but the pedigree and works are solid and he does draw well.

Gate Runner (MTO)
Java Buzz
Forwardly

#9 JAVA BUZZ (7/2): Makes the most sense to me in what seems like a puzzling race. I’m tossing the last-out effort, as five furlongs is just way shorter than he wants to go. Anything close to his prior races going a mile would give him a big shot; #10 FORWARDLY (5-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start since December. He takes a significant class drop to run here and may be talented enough to overcome the far-outside draw; #3 QUALITY G (3-1): Has found trouble in each of his last several starts and possesses enough talent to boast a few placings in stakes races. Having said that, he’s far from an easy horse to handle, seems to put himself in weird spots, and hits me as an underlay at his likely price.

R10

Chalky Cat
Mudville Nine
Under the Knife

#9 CHALKY CAT (5/2): Hasn’t run horribly against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag in the Sunday finale. This certainly seems like a weaker group than the ones he’s been going against, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #10 MUDVILLE NINE (4-1): Led for most of the way last time out going a bit longer and gets a cutback in distance he should appreciate here. The outside draw should help him, and the lone work since that effort wasn’t a bad one; #5 UNDER THE KNIFE (5-1): Showed speed in an off-the-turf event last time out before fading to finish third. Irad gets on for this one, and at a minimum, he should be able to be a pace factor here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/19/23; ALABAMA DAY)

Posted on August 18, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.25

At its best, horse racing Twitter is a wonderful place where passionate people can exchange ideas and philosophies and have meaningful conversations. At its worst, it’s a cesspool, one I can’t say I missed too much when I took a break earlier this summer during a tough time.

On Friday, news broke that Twitter/X overlord Elon Musk is moving to remove the “block” function from the platform. I try not to use that much, unless there’s a very good reason for it. My general philosophy is that you can disagree with me as much as you want on a professional level, but if you get personal (or, worst of all, invoke people I love very much), there’s the door.

Musk’s proposal would be an absolutely horrendous move that doesn’t just turn a blind eye to harassment, but tacitly encourages it. Users of that social media platform shouldn’t be subject to the worst of their ilk, and thankfully, Apple’s App Store seems to agree given their terms and conditions.

Should Twitter become a horrible place to communicate, you can find me on Instagram and Threads at @142winners. If Musk’s move comes to fruition, it’s entirely possible I migrate there full-time.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My best bet of the day scratched, which cancelled my action.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late Pick Four, which starts in the eighth. My $1 ticket goes as follows: 1,6,7 with 2,3,9,10 with 2,5,9 with 10.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday: 6-for-10
Meet: 49-for-165

Best Bet: Henson, Race 11
Longshot: A La Carte, Race 5

Risk It
Middle Market
Hunt Ball

#1 RISK IT (4-1): Hammered for $500,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale and sports a strong workout pattern ahead of his unveiling in the Saturday opener. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a first-time starter, but there’s enough to suggest he could be a runner; #4 MIDDLE MARKET (6-1): Sold for $250,000 as a weanling and has been working consistently for Chad Brown. His lone gate drill jumps off the page, and he’s a contender if he runs back to that; #3 HUNT BALL (3-1): Has a world-class pedigree, being by Into Mischief and out of Grade 1 winner Dance Card. That makes him a half-brother to Cody’s Wish and Endorsed, so he’s got every chance to be a very nice horse. The question is, is he ready to run first time out?

Blast Furnace
Walley World
Dancing Groom

#8 BLAST FURNACE (5-1): Ran into a couple of strong fields earlier this season and makes his first start for new connections here. The stretchout to two turns is an unknown, but he’s got an experience edge over most of this group that could prove helpful; #6 WALLEY WORLD (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown, attracts Flavien Prat, and is bred to love the turf. This son of More Than Ready makes a lot of sense in this spot, and he’d be a logical favorite; #5 DANCING GROOM (6-1): Was one-paced in his debut earlier this year, but he’s bred to go longer than he went that day. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and improvement seems logical at second asking.

Obrigada (MTO)
Weaver entry
Georgees Spirit

WEAVER ENTRY (7/2): Both #1 MY SWEET AFFAIR and #1A MISS DOMINA can win. The former gets significant class relief after several stakes races in a row, while the latter loves this turf course and comes in off a win at this route; #2 GEORGEES SPIRIT (9/2): Has run once since November, but gets Lasix for the first time in this spot and has back form that fits against these foes. She’s a contender if she’s ready to run; #8 YOU GOTTA HAVE FUN (12-1): Is bred up and down for turf, makes her first start for Mike Maker, and comes in off of two wins against lesser company. Maybe these waters are too deep, but this is also what she’s bred to do, and I think she’s worth a flyer in the exotics at a big price.

No More Talk
Ensign Parker
Handsome Cat

#10 NO MORE TALK (4-1): Goes to a different barn ahead of this event, which doubles as already his third start of the meet. He’s got back form from this past spring that would beat this bunch, and he should get an ideal stalking trip; #1 ENSIGN PARKER (6-1): Beat a weaker field last time out in the best effort he’s put forth in quite some time. He can win if he repeats that effort, and he’d benefit from any moisture left in the track from Friday’s deluge; #2 HANDSOME CAT (9/2): Takes a significant class drop for a barn that’s starting to heat up. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but he fits on figures given some of the races he ran against better horses earlier this season.

A La Carte
Rodriguez entry
Durante

#5 A LA CARTE (8-1): Faltered when fourth at this level last time out, but adds blinkers in this spot and comes in off of a string of exceptional workouts. Given that he’ll be a bit of a price here, I’ll gladly take a swing and hope the equipment change wakes him up; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (7/5): Both #1 LAFITTE’S FLEET and #1A DAUFUSKIE ISLAND can win. I slightly prefer the latter, who ran a gigantic race two back at Belmont and would be very tough if he makes the lead early on; #8 DURANTE (3-1): Comes in off of two romps at Los Alamitos and Penn National (yes, you read that correctly), and when David Jacobson gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there. This is certainly a class test, but he fits on figures and draws a cushy outside post.

Arisaema
Leadership Ability
Lem Me Drink

#11 ARISAEMA (3-1): Needs a scratch to run but has a big chance if she draws in. She had an excuse last time out given a slow start, but was beaten less than two lengths that day and may not have to improve much to beat these; #9 LEADERSHIP ABILITY (5/2): Is a likely favorite for powerhouse connections despite a layoff of nearly 11 months. She drops in for a tag off the bench, and we’ve never seen her go two turns, but it does seem like they found a soft spot for her return; #10 LEM ME DRINK (5-1): Has had plenty of chances, but her last two races, while maiden claimers, turned out to be pretty tough spots. Those two winners have turned out to be stakes-caliber horses, and this field seems significantly weaker.

Aspray
Surge Capacity
Prerequisite

#2 ASPRAY (7/2): Cuts back to what’s probably her best trip in the Grade 2 Lake Placid and is one of several contenders from the Chad Brown barn. She went 3-for-3 before a dud in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, where she didn’t have much pace to chase going 10 furlongs; #7 SURGE CAPACITY (3-1): Is 2-for-2 with a win in the Grade 3 Lake George to her credit. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which gives Joel Rosario plenty of options; #8 PREREQUISITE (9/2): Did everything but win the Belmont Oaks, when she led most of the way before settling for second. Irad Ortiz, Jr., shows up here, which is noteworthy, but I don’t think she’ll be alone up front, which could hurt her chances.

Nostalgic
Movie Moxy
Mosienko

#7 NOSTALGIC (3-1): Came off the bench running last time out, when she closed from last and finished just a neck back. She hasn’t won in quite a while, but that last-out effort indicates she’s improved from age three to age four, and it’s logical to expect another step forward second off the layoff; #1 MOVIE MOXY (4-1): Has won two of her last three starts and does her best work at this one-mile distance. She has enough speed to establish position on the inside early, which could prove very helpful; #6 MOSIENKO (10-1): Has spent most of her career going shorter, but she won at a mile earlier this year at Aqueduct and loves Saratoga. Luis Saez rode her to victory last time out a few weeks ago, and he sees fit to climb aboard again here.

Wet Paint
Defining Purpose
Julia Shining

#2 WET PAINT (2-1): Earned her first Grade 1 win in the Coaching Club American Oaks earlier this summer and runs as though she’ll love the 10-furlong distance of the Grade 1 Alabama. She should have plenty of pace to run at, too, and she’s obviously a major player; #10 DEFINING PURPOSE (10-1): Pulled off a 20-1 upset in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland and most recently annexed the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks. She’s got enough early speed to clear most of this field early on, and we may get some value at or near the morning line price; #3 JULIA SHINING (5-1): Came to the races last year with as strong a pedigree as you’ll ever see and runs like she wants every part of this distance. She was third in the Ashland last time out and comes in off a steady string of local drills.

R10

Napoleonic War
Whisper Not
Verbal

#2 NAPOLEONIC WAR (7/2): Came in off of a very long break last time and may have moved a bit early on that occasion. He adds blinkers second off the bench for Chad Brown and has every right to move forward; #5 WHISPER NOT (9/2): Broke a drought of more than two years last time out, when he overcame a wide post and sprang a 14-1 upset. I’m not sure he’ll get as lively a pace as he got that day, but a repeat of the speed figure he earned in that spot would give him a big chance; #9 VERBAL (5/2): Had an excuse last time out, when he was moved up to second after a rough trip. Like my top choice, he also adds blinkers, but he’ll have to work out a trip from a pretty tricky post.

R11

Henson
Majestic Arc
Kern River

#10 HENSON (8/5): Looms very large in the Saturday finale off the trainer switch to Brad Cox. His lone prior effort was a third in an off-the-turf race earlier this summer, and if he doesn’t win what seems like a very weak race for the level, I don’t know who does; #7 MAJESTIC ARC (15-1): Boasts a solid work tab ahead of his career debut and is bred to handle turf. He’s by Ironicus, his dam is kin to a few nice runners, and perhaps most importantly, he doesn’t need to be a world-beater to run well here at a big price; #8 KERN RIVER (3-1): Has shown speed in two prior starts and was claimed last time out by Mike Maker. He’s probably the one they’ll have to run down late; the question is, how long can he go up front given what we’ve seen in both of his previous outings?