SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/23)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

I’ll use this section today to shout out a very worthy cause. Johnny Taboada, an owner on the Northern California circuit, has an autistic son and names his horses in ways that raise autism awareness (if you’ve seen names like that and wondered about the backstory, there you go).

He’s partnering with the George Noyes Foundation to help run a charity poker tournament Sunday in Sacramento. A $150 donation gets you a seat in the tournament, plus food and access to the lounge area, and if you don’t want to play, you can buy a $50 general admission ticket.

If you’re in the area, come on out. If you’re not and want to support the cause, you can donate to the George Noyes Foundation online.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: For the third straight card going back to my summer seminar stint at Pleasanton, my best bet of the day scratched. As such, we had no action on Opening Day.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: We may scratch out of action again, as two races I’m playing are carded for the turf amidst uncertain weather conditions. I’m going to try to extract some value out of heavy favorite #3 DREAMLIKE in the second race. I’ll play an early Pick Four, and my $1 ticket is as follows: 3 with 4,9 with 4,5 with 1,3,8,9. I’ll also play $5 doubles starting in the second race that use the first half of that Pick Four ticket (Dreamlike in the second, #4 G LAURIE and #9 VENENCIA in the third).

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dreamlike, Race 2
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 5

R1

Awesome Czech
Poseidon’s Mist
She Takes Cash

#6 AWESOME CZECH (9/2): Has shown a bit more pep in her step during the last two drills, which is enough to make her a tepid top pick in a wide-open Friday opener. Horacio De Paz can win with 2-year-olds, and the barn’s first-call rider, Manny Franco, has the mount; #8 POSEIDON’S MIST (3-1): Has hinted at some precocity in works at Monmouth Park and draws a cushy outside post in her unveiling. There’s some class on the bottom side of this one’s pedigree, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she’s ready to run at first asking; #7 SHE TAKES CASH (6-1): Is kin to a pair of winners, and second dam Fleet Wahine won multiple stakes races. The pedigree screams turf to me, but damsire Stormy Atlantic is, fittingly, a strong off-track influence, which could come in handy if the skies open up.

R2

Dreamlike
Ocasek
Ride Up

#3 DREAMLIKE (3/5): Ran third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial behind Lord Miles (you may have heard me talk about that race once or twice…) and looms very large in his return to the maiden ranks. His prior races tower over his competition in this spot, and he’ll probably be the shortest-priced favorite of the day; #4 OCASEK (4-1): Ran well when second in his debut before faltering as a 3/5 favorite last time out. That was a weird race where the winner freaked to romp by 19 lengths, so I don’t have much of a problem taking it with a grain of salt; #6 RIDE UP (10-1): Was second in his lone two-turn start to date and seems like one of the main pace factors here. If he gets comfortable beneath returning rider Dylan Davis, he’ll have every chance to hang on for a piece of it at a price.

R3

Venencia
G Laurie
Royalty Interest

#9 VENENCIA (4-1): May have been in a bit too deep last time out in the Grade 2 Wonder Again and returns to the allowance ranks here. Her two-back effort at Keeneland was very impressive, as she rallied into a very slow pace and was beaten less than two lengths. The presence of both Lasix and Flavien Prat should help considerably; #4 G LAURIE (4-1): Hasn’t been out of the barn since late-December but showed plenty of potential as a 2-year-old. She was a troubled-trip third in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, adds Lasix for her first start of the season, and has every right to have matured in her time off; #6 ROYALTY INTEREST (3-1): Was last of five as a 4/5 favorite in the Penn Oaks last time out and will likely go favored given the connections. However, of the Chad Brown trainees, I prefer my top pick. This one’s debut came back just-OK on speed figures, and her likely price hits me as an underlay.

R4

Accede
Randomized
Sacred Wish

#4 ACCEDE (8/5): Was outclassed in the Grade 1 Acorn, where she was fifth behind the current leader in the 3-year-old filly division. The slight cutback to a mile should help her, and anything close to her two-back effort, when she was third in the Grade 2 Eight Belles, would give her every chance in the Wilton; #5 RANDOMIZED (7/5): Graduated with an impressive 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time out before, like her stablemate, being thumped in the Acorn. She’s got plenty of early speed and should be able to make her own trip from the outside post; #3 SACRED WISH (7/2): Has a record that looks much better if you toss the two-back clunker in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. She bounced back with a strong second against older competition at Belmont, and John Velazquez returns to take the mount.

R5

Empire Sky
Holla At Your Boy
Kid Kreesa

#9 EMPIRE SKY (7/2): Is approaching “now or never” territory, as he’s come agonizingly close to earning the diploma a few times now. However, this race doesn’t seem like it’s drawn any world-beaters, and he should be able to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the pace; #1 HOLLA AT YOUR BOY (6-1): Showed ample early speed last time out at Delaware, where he dueled early against open company over soft going. The return to the state-bred ranks could move him forward, and first-time Lasix is a very powerful equipment change; #8 KID KREESA (20-1): May have found a soft spot for the debut and is bred to like the grass. His dam’s two prior foals to race have both won, and that mare is a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner King Kreesa, who was a heck of a turf horse.

R6

Ouster (MTO)
Danzigwiththestars
Battle of Normandy

#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS (6-1): Returns to upstate New York, where he’s run some of the best races of his career. This is his first start off of a long layoff, Luis Saez has been enlisted to ride, and a repeat of some of his past efforts over this oval would make him a major player; #3 BATTLE OF NORMANDY (4-1): Has burned plenty of money this year in two second-place finishes, both as an odds-on favorite. Those didn’t come against bad fields, and his best race could certainly win this, but he’s becoming a bit tough to trust despite showing plenty of talent as a 2-year-old; #7 SHUTTERS (5/2): Had an eventful trip when fourth downstate in his first start for a new barn. There are lots of layoff lines here, so it’s safe to assume he’s had some issues, but he’s proven going two turns and has shown enough versatility to give John Velazquez options.

R7

No More Talk
Towing
Bustin Shout

#3 NO MORE TALK (2-1): Drops in class and cuts back to six furlongs after finishing third as a 7/5 favorite last time out. He won two and three back, and in doing so beat several rivals that also show up here. A return to his preferred level and distance should suit him, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #9 TOWING (6-1): Has found career-best form as a 6-year-old, as he’s won both of his 2023 starts. He goes first off the claim for Norm Casse here, and he’s got a shot if his Churchill Downs form travels with him; #2 BUSTIN SHOUT (10-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but fits on speed figures and was a decent second last time out at Finger Lakes. He’s also got four top-two finishes in six starts over wet tracks, so he figures to benefit in the event of a Saratoga monsoon (copyright Tom Amello, all rights reserved).

R8

Dot’s Dollar
Happy Farm
Cees Get Degrees

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (8/5): Has won six of his last 10 starts dating back to early-2022, including his last-out race at Belmont where he topped a solid group of optional claimers. His lone start here was a wire-to-wire score at this level, and his usual race makes him the one to beat in a race filled with easy-to-root-for stalwarts of the NYRA circuit; #4 HAPPY FARM (6-1): Goes first off the claim for a capable outfit here and has two wins and a second in four local starts. Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had some options, and this consistent gelding’s usual effort would get him a piece of this; #3 CEES GET DEGREES (7/2): Tired against a better group last time out at Belmont, but cruised to an easy score two back on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico. He looks like the main speed in this race, and if it rains, an off track won’t bother him, judging by that runaway December score in the slop at Aqueduct.

R9

L Street Lady (MTO)
Love Reigns
Love Appeals

#4 LOVE REIGNS (7/5): Had lots of potential excuses in the Limestone last time out, but overcame an extremely unlucky trip and won despite the trouble. The recent bullet drill at Keeneland seems like a sign she’s doing well, and her best effort sure seems like it would thump that of her rivals in the Coronation Cup; #2 LOVE APPEALS (3-1): Has improved with every start and came alive when cut back to one turn by Christophe Clement. She won by nearly five lengths over a next-out winner, and she may have found what she wants to do; #8 BOSSERATI (8-1): Has won all three starts since being switched to the turf by a powerhouse mid-Atlantic outfit and gets a class test here. She’s led every step of the way in her last two tries and figures to be a prominent pace factor.

R10

Valenzan Day (MTO)
Our Country
Encourage

#8 OUR COUNTRY (10-1): Gets considerable class relief and is my top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. He hasn’t won since January of 2022, but has spent the last 18 months or so running against much better horses. He’s won over this turf course before, and his back class could carry him through; #11 ENCOURAGE (5-1): Is another class-dropper, and while he has to contend with a terrible post, he’s making his third start off the bench and has races from last summer that stack up well against this group. If he finds the form that inspired bettors to send him off at 5/2 in a $100,000 stakes race last fall, he’ll have every chance; #9 SPLENDID SUMMER (8-1): Adds blinkers in his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Prat going elsewhere is a concern, but underrated turf rider Jose Lezcano hops aboard a runner with enough versatility to win wire-to-wire two back and rally from 10th to second in his lone local try last summer.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/13/23; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

It’s been a heck of a 10-month period for me since we last did this. Among other highlights, I’ve gotten engaged, climbed mountains in England, eaten mountains of food in Italy, and benefited from an arrangement that will also see my content published in the New York Daily News.

Now, the work starts. A quick rundown for those new to the party: I’ll be giving out at least one play a day in hopes of growing my mythical $1,000 betting stake. While my picks and analysis will be live on AndrewChampagne.com two days in advance, these won’t be posted until the previous day’s action has concluded (if I could post them further in advance, after all, I’d never lose).

Let’s dive in, shall we?

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I sincerely hope we get the morning line price on #4 OLLIEMYBOY in the fifth. If he doesn’t go favored, that hits me as an overlay. We’ll start things off with a $20 win bet on that one, plus a $10 cold double starting with him and ending with #2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS in the sixth (as a reminder, plays in all turf races assume they stay on the grass).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Olliemyboy, Race 5
Longshot: Need Some Money, Race 7

R1

Virtual Reality
Sabra Tuff
Bustin Bay

#1 VIRTUAL REALITY (3-1): Got up to win at first asking downstate in late-May and stretches out to two turns here. However, she’s got the pedigree to want every bit of this trip, being by Preakness winner Cloud Computing and out of a mare with stamina-heavy bloodlines; #6 SABRA TUFF (3-1): Has faced nothing but stakes rivals since winning her debut in June of 2022 and should appreciate the class drop. The addition of Lasix also figures to be a plus, and the last-out clunker seems too bad to be true; #5 BUSTIN BAY (5/2): Crushed a field of state-bred rivals last time out at Belmont Park and has won twice in five local outings at the Spa. The hesitation here isn’t the talent, but the two-turn trip. She’s never gone this far before in 32 lifetime starts, so that’s a legitimate concern.

R2

Lady Moscato
Empire Island
Soca

#6 LADY MOSCATO (3-1): Debuted with a decent second at Ellis Park and is one of just two horses in this field with prior experience. She’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Salty, and the most recent gate work at Churchill indicates she’s bounced out of her unveiling in strong fashion; #2 EMPIRE ISLAND (5/2): Has turned in several flashy works beneath the Twin Spires and figures to be favored. She may have the talent to win this, but her distance-heavy pedigree means she may want much longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #4 SOCA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who must always be respected with first-time starters. She’s a half-sister to Double Thunder, who won a Grade 3 as a 2-year-old, and she attracts Flavien Prat, who’s been riding as well as anyone in the country.

R3

Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Liana B
La Aguililla

#4 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Came back to form last time out, when she made up lots of ground late and missed by a nose. She earned the diploma at this route last summer, and there’s plenty of speed in this turf sprint to set up for her late kick; #8 LIANA B (5-1): Went wire-to-wire at Monmouth last time out and tries winners for the first time here. Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders anywhere, sees fit to ride, and that could be a tough tandem to beat give this one’s ample early zip; #10 LA AGUILILLA (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but comes back to the turf and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., two switches that can’t be ignored. She ran well in a few early-2023 turf sprints and could have options from the outside post.

R4

Salimah
Kalifornia Queen
Sister Otoole

#5 SALIMAH (8/5): Makes her first start since the Grade 1 American Oaks and is half of a Chad Brown duo that looks very tough. She won a classy overnight stakes race before shipping west to Santa Anita, and the return of Lasix in her 4-year-old debut can’t be overlooked; #6 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (4-1): Hasn’t won since June of 2021 but has spent most of that time going up against graded stakes competition. This is just her fifth start since October of 2021, so there have probably been some issues here, but her best effort would give her a big chance; #2 SISTER OTOOLE (6-1): Comes in off of a long layoff, but does so for Graham Motion, who gets horses prepared to go off of long breaks as well as anybody. This distance may be a bit short for her, but there are some classy names in her prior running lines that hint she’s a threat if she’s ready.

R5

Olliemyboy
Dust Devil
Two Thirty Five

#4 OLLIEMYBOY (3-1): Won for a $62,500 tag two starts ago and drops in for less than a third of that price here. He’s been gelded since a last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, and this is an aggressive owner/trainer combination that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box. A repeat of that two-back effort would make him incredibly formidable; #2 DUST DEVIL (4-1): Comes in off of back-to-back second-place finishes downstate against similar company, and he made up a lot of ground late in his most recent outing. Prat sees fit to ride back when he had some options, and he should be going well late; #9 TWO THIRTY FIVE (8-1): Is one of a few 9-year-olds in here, but has shown he still has some gas in the tank. This 13-time winner has proven two-turn form, and his usual effort seems like enough to get a piece of this purse at a bit of a price.

R6

Amundson (MTO)
Runningwscissors
Yarrow

#2 RUNNINGWSCISSORS (8/5): Looms large in his return to state-bred competition after two runs against open company. His sharp win two back saw him earn a career-high 94 Beyer Speed Figure, and while this isn’t a bad group for the level, a similar effort would have the rest of them running for second money; #6 YARROW (4-1): Returns to what’s probably his favorite track, one where he’s never finished worse than third in three local tries. He didn’t get any pace to run at last time going a bit longer, and I think he’ll be much more comfortable here given a decent amount of early speed around him; #7 PHANTOM SMOKE (6-1): Had every right to need his last-out effort given that it was his first try in five months, but he ran a credible third at a bit of a price. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and he’s another that’s shown an affinity for this turf course in the past.

R7

Need Some Money
Sa Foradada
Condiment Girl

#11 NEED SOME MONEY (8-1): Looks a heck of a lot better if you toss her two-turn efforts. I simply think she’s far better in one-turn races, and that this seven-furlong trip hits her right between the eyes. She should also benefit from a fast pace in front of her and hits me as a live longshot; #5 SA FORADADA (5-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, but gets both blinkers and Irad Ortiz, Jr., here. She makes her second start off a long layoff and has run well going seven furlongs in the past, so there’s plenty to like; #9 CONDIMENT GIRL (7/2): Has proven tough to catch when she gets the early lead, and she seems like the fastest of this bunch out of the gate. Robertino Diodoro can win with new acquisitions, and she fits on speed figures; the question is, can she handle this step up in class out of a $30,000 beaten claimer last month?

R8

My Sea Cottage
Kingfish Stevens
Born a Gambler

#4 MY SEA COTTAGE (7/2): Has done nothing but fire since returning from a long break in December, and has been the victim of a few hard-luck losses downstate. His two wins have come going two turns, and his early speed should be an asset over this inner turf course; #5 KINGFISH STEVENS (5-1): Has made middle moves several times in his past few starts, and I’m guessing that’s part of why blinkers go on today. He was a credible fourth in a stakes race on the Preakness undercard two starts ago, and he’s a win candidate if he turns up more focused in this spot; #2 BORN A GAMBLER (6-1): Won for the first time in a while a couple of weeks ago, when he responded to a drop in class and rallied to get the money. He merits some respect off of the last-out effort, but he’ll have to manage stretching out to two turns and jumping back up the class ladder.

R9

Wine On Tap
Sugar Treat
Saratoga Secret

#7 WINE ON TAP (5/2): Never looked like a loser in her unveiling at Belmont and is a logical favorite in the Grade 3 Schuylerville. The additional furlong should pose no problem for this daughter of Tapit, and a win by her would give Pletcher a seventh Schuylerville win; #11 SUGAR TREAT (6-1): Overcame significant trouble in her debut, where she checked several times, lost ground, and somehow found a way to win. The outside post should give she and Prat smoother sailing, and if she transfers the synthetic form to Saratoga’s dirt track, she could be a major player; #5 SARATOGA SECRET (4-1): Was never seriously troubled in her first-out win at Ellis Park, and that day’s rider, Luis Saez, stays aboard for her first try against winners. Her lone work since that race was sharp, and like his former assistant trainer, D. Wayne Lukas is aiming for his seventh Schuylerville Thursday afternoon.

R10

Stone of Destiny
Here We Go Again
Pimenova

#4 STONE OF DESTINY (9/2): Was last of seven in her debut, but she had an excuse that day given a rough trip. David Donk’s horses often need a race or two to get going, the class drop should help her find her footing, and it’s encouraging that John Velazquez stays aboard in the Opening Day finale; #10 HERE WE GO AGAIN (4-1): Hasn’t raced since November, but returns for a barn that hits at a 29% clip with new acquisitions. She showed some early speed a season ago, and I’m anticipating Saez will have her up close throughout in her 3-year-old debut; #11 PIMENOVA (8-1): Doesn’t draw a spectacular post but should certainly appreciate stretching out to two turns. Her best races in 2022 came at similar routes of ground, and she exits a decent third-place effort going a bit shorter at Belmont in mid-June.

Andrew, Saratoga, and…the New York Daily News???

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I had a social media strategy leading up to Saratoga loosely planned out. A few days before the meet, you’d get something here laying out the general content plan for the summer, when things would get posted, and a few other quick thoughts before I dove into the opening day past performances.

And then Joe Boyle, the sports editor of The Saratogian, called me and sent everything askew in the best possible way.

The paper’s parent company recently acquired another publication based in New York, he told me. And they wanted to run my stuff.

That publication…is the New York Daily News.

I’m not joking when I say my immediate reaction was, “Joe, I could kiss you.” It’s at that moment Joe was very, very grateful there was 3,000 miles of distance between the two of us.

When I was a kid, the News’s sports section was the best horse racing section in the city. It was anchored by daily selections and analysis from Russ Harris, who is, for my money, the best to ever do it. It also featured the Battle of Saratoga, where three handicappers would throw good-natured barbs at one another for a few paragraphs before giving their best bankroll plays of the day.

Sound familiar, like maybe the content you read on this site each day of the Saratoga meet? Literally everything I do is modeled off of what I read (or, more accurately, devoured) in that publication as a kid learning the game. In its print and digital formats, its content is read by hundreds of thousands of people per day.

This paper, and the people who produced content for it, shaped me as a writer in ways I couldn’t comprehend at that time. The stuff I do is a throwback to those days, and I hope it reaches people like it reached me.

To be able to have my stuff in the space Harris once occupied is an incredible honor and privilege. I’m thankful for the staffs at both papers for bringing everything together. In addition, I’m blessed to have a full-time employer, Catena Media, that allows me to do everything I do for Saratoga on top of my full-time job.

Racing-wise, the last 10 months have been pretty good for me. I just wrapped up an annual stint doing seminars at the Alameda County Fair. I started a new podcast on the On the Wrong Lead network with my friend Josh Rodriguez. There’s some other stuff for Saratoga you’ll read about below that I’m pretty excited about…and you may have heard about Lord Miles at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial.

However, being told that my stuff was going into the New York Daily News? That’s nothing I ever expected, and it’s some of the best freelance-related news I’ve ever gotten.

I’m sure I’ll stop levitating at some point, but for now, leave me be, okay?

The content, and when it’s coming

If you’re a longtime reader of mine, you know the drill. If you’re not, here’s how this’ll work.

My selections and analysis will be up about 36 hours before that day’s first post. This is to mitigate any conflicts with regard to deadlines and different time zones. For example, Thursday’s opening day stuff will be live on Tuesday night, and those will include the first of 40 bankroll sections, wherein I’ll try to turn a profit after starting with $1,000 in mythical money.

Friday’s content goes live on Wednesday night, with the exception of that day’s bankroll blurb, which I’ll post after the previous day’s bet has concluded (if I could post in advance, I’d never lose…). Saturday’s content goes up on Thursday, Sunday’s goes up on Friday, and we go on that timeline until Labor Day.

In addition to the content on my site, I’ve got some other stuff in the works, too. I’ll be working with Paulick Report on a video chronicling a select 2-year-old race at Saratoga each week, and I’m also going to be doing periodic spots on FOX Sports 980 and 95.9 in Albany with Jeff Levack and Tom Goslowski.

I’ll be linking to all of this stuff on social media. In addition to following me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne (where most of my traffic comes from), I’m also on Instagram (@142winners) and Threads (@142winners).

It’s busy, but it’s always busy, and it’s always worth it. Saratoga’s a special place for so many reasons, and to be able to do what I do every summer is a blessing. Last year, my content on this site, with no paid promotion and only powered by my social media and occasional mentions in The Pink Sheet, got to more than 30,000 hits for the first time. That’s a big number, and it shows that I’ve got some pretty amazing readers who think I’m doing something right.

To those who make it so much fun to do this every summer: Thank you. Thank you VERY much. Now, let’s get to picking some winners!

2023 Kentucky Derby Recap: From Chaos Comes Clarity

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Want to read a Kentucky Derby recap that has very little to do with the race? If so, I’ve got just the ticket.

(Editor’s note: Uh oh.)

(Writer’s retort: Come on. It’s me. You knew this was going to be weird.)

I did a ton of Kentucky Derby content leading up to Saturday. Catena Media allowed me to get my hands dirty on a bunch of sites within the company’s portfolio, and I’m grateful to them for that. I love my job, and I very much enjoy collaborating with some of the best co-workers (and friends) one can ask for.

I did a ton outside of my day job, too. You may have heard me on a few podcasts, and if you were in Ithaca or Albany (two of my former places of residence), you may have heard me on local sports radio affiliates, too. I woke up on Saturday morning bright and early, fully prepared to compile everything into one nice, neat package.

And then Forte scratched, and everything came crashing down.

Not literally, of course. Life goes on. However, with that scratch, almost every piece of content I conceived, produced, edited, and/or published the prior four or five days became irrelevant.

You may have seen a few social media posts from me in that vein that hinted I wasn’t in a great mood. As I told a few family members and close friends, I was absolutely devastated, and not because Forte wasn’t running.

There’s no worse feeling than seeing a lot of hard work fueled by passion go down the drain. I spent the entire week touting Forte enthusiastically, so everything that enthusiasm touched was instantly rendered obsolete.

(Quick note: If the vets determined Forte shouldn’t have run, then he shouldn’t have run. It’s truly as simple as that, so please don’t put words in my mouth.)

I audibled reasonably well the morning of the race. I put out a revised betting strategy, and if you acted on it, you came out ahead. Mage was my third choice, but a win bet at overlaid odds proved profitable. My exactas were toast, so I didn’t get rich, but I’ve had far, far worse Derbies.

After the race, a tweet of mine went around pretty quickly. I said Forte would have stomped that group, and I sincerely believe that. He’s beaten Mage twice already, and I don’t see a reason a healthy version of him couldn’t have done so again this weekend. I hope we’ll get a chance to see him sooner rather than later, ideally at an overlaid price.

The interactions that followed, though, gave me a lot of insight into my feelings and motivations. For as much bluster, pompousness, and ego my detractors (and there are many, for reasons passing understanding…) will claim I have, I genuinely enjoy going back and forth with about 90 to 95 percent of horse racing Twitter. I’ll talk shop in any setting anyone wants, and more often than not, I’ll genuinely enjoy it.

I was miserable most of Derby Day, and not because a horse I was excited to bet wasn’t going to run. It was because I put a lot of my spare energy into creating content for horseplayers to digest and enjoy, and I do it because there’s no better feeling than using my knowledge and insight to help someone else make money.

It’s why I keep doing all of this stuff on top of a day job I very much enjoy. I’m not getting rich off of these passion projects, and that’s not the point. The things I do in horse racing are because I want to do them, and because, over the years, there’s enough evidence to support the idea that I know what I’m talking about (you might have heard about Lord Miles…).

Saratoga’s in two months. I’ll be back in the pages of The Pink Sheet and online on this very site with full-card analysis, selections, and bankroll plays. Before that is the Alameda County Fair in Pleasanton. I’ll be in Europe for the first week of that meet, but most weekends, I’ll be co-hosting handicapping seminars just outside the grandstand that preview each day of racing action at the Northern California fair track.

In the meantime, you can keep checking this site and my social media platforms. I’m an easy guy to find. If you’ve got any ideas for content, or just something you’d like to see, use the “contact” function. I see everything that comes through.

To those that enjoy what I do, thank you. You’re a large part of why I’m still able to do it.

Sounding The Alarm To Fix Major Horse Racing Issues

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The inspiration for this article came from a conversation I had with a good friend who works in the horse racing business.

(Editor’s note: Wait, Andrew has friends? We’re as shocked as you are.)

(Writer’s retort: You’re a jerk.)

On the whole, I don’t share the “doom and gloom” outlook on horse racing possessed by some loud voices on horse racing Twitter. I don’t think horse racing is on its deathbed, or that the sport will cease to exist in a certain number of years. I love this game, and as anyone who follows me can attest, I pour a great amount of energy into it on a consistent basis.

The fact is, however, that competition for legal wagering dollars has never been greater. Sports betting is being legalized in a majority of states around the country. The latest state to approve the industry is Kentucky, whose governor signed a sports betting bill last week.

Sooner rather than later, residents of the Bluegrass State will be able to log on to DraftKings, FanDuel, or whatever platform they want. They’ll be able to lock in wagers on their favorite teams, at set odds, with an abundance of free information at their fingertips. The rules of these contests are iron-clad and laid out for all to see, high standards for competition and the settings of competitions are set, winners and losers are known when the clock shows all-zeroes, and, by and large, confusion is at a minimum.

Meanwhile, in horse racing, all of the following items on the list below are true.

  • Racetracks, on occasion, have major issues correctly timing races from start to finish.
  • Three major racetracks (Gulfstream Park, Churchill Downs, and Fair Grounds) have had significant problems growing and maintaining grass on their turf courses.
  • Late odds changes are commonplace across many prominent circuits.
  • The California breeding industry is facing immense obstacles, and a major source of Cal-breds, Ocean Breeze Farm, has been put up for sale by the Reddams.
  • One state’s racing circuit, which had been handling record numbers over the past few years, stopped sending its simulcast signal out of its state, resulting in millions of dollars in lost handle each month (and that’s being conservative).
  • At the time of this writing, nearly two years after the 2021 Kentucky Derby, we still don’t know the official winner of that race.
  • Nearly four years after the 2019 Kentucky Derby, we don’t have one uniform answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?”

With all of that in mind, why would any novice who doesn’t have the time to dig into specifics choose to bet on horse racing rather than sports? This is true even in Kentucky, a state that prides itself on being the heartbeat of the racing industry. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the history of horse racing matters too much to someone who’s been to the track once a year, has $100 to gamble with, and has a choice of a Pick Four or an NFL game he/she/they can research a thousand different ways without spending a dime.

Take all of the things we horseplayers bicker about on Twitter and throw all of them out the window for a moment. Instead, let’s ask ourselves this question: What are we, as a sport, doing to ensure we get things as right as possible, as quickly as possible, for the benefit of every stakeholder involved?

Optics matter, and not just for whatever part of racing’s multi-legged stool you happen to reinforce. There are no simple answers to the below questions, but they need to be asked.

  • What are we doing to educate new fans, make them more informed fans, and give them the confidence they need to put their money through the betting windows more than once or twice a year?
  • Why are we breeding fewer horses, and why are the ones we breed now running fewer times, needing more time after races, and becoming harder for the average fan to develop interests in than thoroughbreds of years past? More importantly, how do we reverse this trend to where we’re breeding to race instead of racing to breed (or, even worse, breeding to sell on a widespread basis)?
  • What are we doing to get new owners involved in the game when the economics to do so have never been more challenging for the non-gazillionaires out there?
  • How do we keep the mid-sized, 10-12% trainer in business when the 20-25% trainers seem to have all the top bloodstock, owners, and riders on lockdown?

I don’t claim to have all the answers. I’m a bettor and a marketing/communications guy. I’m not a horseperson, or a veterinarian, or someone who’s intimately familiar with the challenges barns of all sizes face on a daily basis.

(Editor’s note: Wait a minute. He’s actually NOT a pompous know-it-all?)

(Writer’s retort: Shocking, right? Don’t tell anyone. Wouldn’t want to ruin a good shtick.)

I’m also not trying to insinuate the industry isn’t doing anything at all. A number of outlets are doing good work, and, in many cases, doing so while fighting numerous uphill battles. Acting as though they don’t exist, and/or minimizing their efforts, paints a biased picture.

(Also, say what you will about HISA, a well-meaning but imperfect piece of legislation clearly absent input from horsepeople before it was drafted and signed into law. However, it’s attempting to get everything under one roof with one set of rules. We can debate parts of the legislation all day long, but that particular goal is an admirable one.)

Still, there’s more that can be done across the board by everyone in racing’s ecosystem. Acting as though everything is fine and dandy when it isn’t is flat-out delusional, and it’s long past time for the industry to stop kicking the can down the road.

We don’t have to agree on everything in order for this to happen. If anyone knows about not being agreed with by some very vocal members of horse racing Twitter, it’s me (shoot, I got read the riot act once by someone angry I posted resources for victims of domestic violence). We can check our opinions about HISA, people in the game, and almost any other racing matter at the proverbial door.

The important thing we need to agree on is this: Things in horse racing are broken. If the industry is to survive (and maybe even thrive), a lot of things need to be fixed. The answers aren’t small tweaks. They’re huge, foundation-level adjustments that may require short-term sacrifices (a dirty word, I know, but go with it) to ensure the sport is still around for future generations.

The solution to these problems I’ve mentioned isn’t shooting the messenger. The problems are the problems themselves, not people talking about them (a lesson those quick to criticize the media would do well to learn). Whatever solutions are out there will take lots of thought from lots of smart people.

If we don’t find them soon, the consequences will be real and have longstanding effects for everyone. Let’s start the work now.