SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/15/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $970

If you followed me this spring, you saw I did some writing work for The Paulick Report. I’m fortunate to count several members of their staff as friends. One of them, Eclipse Award winner Joe Nevills, invited me onto this week’s episode of The Friday Show.

We discussed what goes into my work at Saratoga, as well as some key positive and negative angles that I look for in my handicapping. We fit a lot into about 15 minutes and would have gone a lot longer if not for a producer being a stickler about a strict time limit (it’s a good thing I like HIM, too).

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Fast Corey was outsprinted early in the finale and never had a shot. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to extract some value out of my strongest opinion. I think #4 AMERICAN PURE is the most likely winner on the program. I’ll have a $15 win ticket on him, and I’ll also single him in a $5 cold double that ends with #7 STATIC FIRE in the eighth (the Coronation Cup). Finally, I’ll start a $1 Pick Three in the sixth with #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS and #7 RUSE, single American Pure in the seventh, and finish with #3 TWILIGHT GLEAMING, #6 DERRYNANE, and Static Fire.

TOTAL WAGERED: $26.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: American Pure, Race 7
Longshot: Static Fire, Race 8

R1

Maddie’s Grace
Camp Akeela
Im Just Kiddin

#3 MADDIE’S GRACE: Has been working slowly ahead of her debut, but this barn is sneaky with firsters and there’s reason to believe she can run. Her two half-siblings to race are both winners, her dam is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Tip Tap Tapizar, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride; #6 CAMP AKEELA: Comes in off a pretty big gate work at Churchill Downs for a trainer that can win with first-time starters. Offspring of the late Laoban tend to be precocious. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because the dam-side pedigree is mostly turf; #5 IM JUST KIDDIN: Is bred in the purple, being by Triple Crown winner Justify and out of the dam of Grade 1 winner Bar of Gold. She’s worked consistently ahead of her unveiling, but this barn’s runners tend to need a race or two to get going.

R2

Remain Anonymous
Melting Snow
Customerexperience

#1 REMAIN ANONYMOUS: Hasn’t won in a while, but goes first off the claim for Brad Cox and has shown an affinity for this surface. Her lone local start was a win, and it helps that she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #6 MELTING SNOW: Was claimed by Tom Amoss last month at Churchill and makes her local debut. Her late-2021 and early-2022 form would make her a major player here, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she found it in her first start for this outfit; #2 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE: Drops down in class after spending much of 2022 knocking heads with tougher competition downstate. She’s hit the board three times in as many local starts and won impressively at this level back in January at Aqueduct.

R3

Curlin’s Wisdom (MTO)
Biondi
Whistler’s Honor

#4 BIONDI: May be in a “now or never” spot as what seems like the main speed in a turf route otherwise devoid of early zip. The inner turf course is kind to such situations, and Luis Saez has won lots of money putting speed horses on the lead; #3 WHISTLER’S HONOR: Was one-paced in his return off a long layoff and has every right to improve second off the bench. This is his first start around two turns, and his pedigree says such a journey should be right up his street; #5 MR. CONNECTICUT: Flopped when the blinkers were put on last time, and they promptly come off here. Joel Rosario, however, comes on, and this one would stand to benefit if my top pick is challenged early.

R4

Actualize
Just Like This
Suppressor

#1 ACTUALIZE: Is one of many taking a significant class drop in this maiden claiming event. He’s repeatedly shown early speed over some boggy surfaces and has the zip to make the rail draw an asset. If he gets comfortable, he could prove tough to catch; #6 JUST LIKE THIS: Hammered for $250,000 in 2020 and is in for less than 10% of that in this spot. He debuted going a mile on turf, adds both Lasix and blinkers for Cox, and could step forward; #7 SUPPRESSOR: Is 0-for-12 but has been competitive against better groups with regularity. He was most recently third downstate for a $40,000 tag, and he should be forwardly placed early on.

R5

Gooch Go Bragh
Al’s Prince
Lord of War

#2 GOOCH GO BRAGH: Was 4-1 in a $100,000 stakes race two starts back and now runs for a $35,000 claiming tag. Perhaps he’s not the horse he was in early-2022, but anything close gives him a big shot, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides when he likely had a few options; #10 AL’S PRINCE: Found starter allowance foes a bit too tough last time after breaking his maiden two back. That win came in his lone two-turn turf start to date, and while the post position is an obstacle, he may be talented enough to overcome it; #9 LORD OF WAR: Has shown some early speed against tougher groups, which could give him a favorable trip in his first start this year against claiming company. Dylan Davis enjoyed a stellar spring downstate and can be aggressive, so don’t be surprised if this one is on the pace at a bit of a price.

R6

Ruse
Danzigwiththestars
Bar Fourteen

#7 RUSE: Played a key part in my best day ever when he won here at 9-1 last September. He hasn’t run a bad race since that performance, and his proven upstate New York form is enough to earn my nod in a tough optional claimer; #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS: Won here twice last summer and was also a credible fourth in a minor stakes race. He hasn’t won since his second local score, but his last-out third hints he could be rounding back into form, and Luis Saez riding back is a positive; #2 BAR FOURTEEN: Has woken up since going back to the turf this past May and might be the main early speed. Jose Lezcano is one of the top turf riders on the circuit, and at a minimum he should be a primary pace factor at a considerable price.

R7

American Pure
I Am the Cash Man
Will E Sutton

#4 AMERICAN PURE: Threw in a clunker in a stakes-quality optional claimer last time out and drops way down the ladder. His wins two and three back were sharp, he’s been working well, and anything close to the 7/2 morning line hits me as a major overlay; #6 I AM THE CASH MAN: Provides the first “beware of Finger Lakes shippers” warning of the meet. Figures-wise, he stacks up reasonably well with this bunch, and it’s telling that Worrie takes a ride in for just one mount; #5 WILL E SUTTON: Drops down in class and should relish the shallower waters. He was less than 10-1 in a stakes race downstate two starts ago, and both of his wins have come at distances similar to this nine-furlong route.

R8

Static Fire
Twilight Gleaming
Derrynane

#7 STATIC FIRE: Has done absolutely nothing wrong in two starts and has never trailed at any point of call. The last-out runner-up came right back to win, we know she likes this route, and I think she’s a very promising prospect; #3 TWILIGHT GLEAMING: Has never finished worse than second in seven lifetime starts and won last year’s Grade 2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. She merits respect, but on Beyer Speed Figures, she hasn’t moved forward the way I thought she might. Against this field, she may have to fire a career-best shot; #6 DERRYNANE: Is a closer who sometimes finds trouble but is a handful when she gets clear sailing. There’s certainly plenty of speed for her to chase in the Coronation Cup, and a pace meltdown isn’t out of the question.

R9

Art Collector (MTO)
Set Piece
Public Sector

#1 SET PIECE: Is the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, and for good reason. Last year’s runner-up in the Grade 1 Fourstardave seems to run the same race every time out. In a race with plenty of speed on paper, that sort of effort makes him a formidable chalk; #7 PUBLIC SECTOR: Stepped forward in the Grade 3 Poker, when he rated off of a very slow early pace and still made up some ground late. He’s a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga and has every right to run a big one in his third start off a long layoff; #3 MIRA MISSION: Was a hard-luck second in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He’s certainly come to hand for trainer Ian Wilkes, and he’s got enough early speed to lay just off of what figures to be a solid pace.

R10

Rossa Veloce
Khali Magic
Shesawildjoker

#2 ROSSA VELOCE: Misfired first off the claim last time out, but she’s shown she’s not overly fond of Belmont Park. By contrast, she’s won at Saratoga, and she faces state-bred foes for the first time since a score at this level back in February; #3 KHALI MAGIC: Hasn’t won in a while but has been very competitive at this level all season long. She was a good second at this distance at Belmont two starts ago, and a similar effort in this spot gives her a big chance; #9 SHESAWILDJOKER: Won a stakes race last year and placed in two others, but went to the sidelines after a January clunker. She adds Lasix and has been working well for David Donk ahead of her return to the races.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/14/22; OPENING DAY)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,000

Last summer was the best summer of my career as a published handicapper. I led all members of the local media with 142 top-pick winners, those top-pick winners generated a positive ROI ($2.04, if you’re curious), and I turned a $277.10 profit in this bankroll section over the course of the meet.

In addition to the picks and analysis you can find in The Pink Sheet and online at AndrewChampagne.com every day, I’ll be playing with a $1,000 bankroll and offering daily wagering insight. As usual, all wagers assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays.

Finally, one quick note before we get started. Juan Vazquez has two horses entered on today’s card. Pennsylvania just suspended him through Jan. 26, 2025, and used words like “grossly negligent, cruel, and abusive.” Why is he allowed to run here? NYRA needs to fix this, and fix this quickly.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: With the blessing of an editor working on deadline, we’ll focus on the Opening Day nightcap, which houses my best bet of the day. #5 FAST COREY drops in for a tag and has shown blazing early speed. I’ll keep it simple, play a $30 win ticket, and hope she makes every pole a winning one at or near the 7/2 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Fast Corey, Race 10
Longshot: Angitude, Race 7

R1

Giocare
Bear Alley
Kershaw

#7 GIOCARE: Has precisely the right running style to perform well in a lid-lifter that seems loaded with early speed. This deep closer has run well at this level multiple times, got claimed back by Orlando Noda, and should be running well late when others may be pleading for the wire; #6 BEAR ALLEY: Comes in off of two straight wins at Churchill Downs and goes first off the claim for Bill Morey, who excels with new acquisitions. He makes sense, but it’s worth noting he’s 5-for-6 beneath the Twin Spires and 0-for-13 everywhere else; #9 KERSHAW: Drops in for a tag for the first time since February, when he won easily in a two-turn race at this level at Oaklawn. He’s another that should benefit from the likely race shape, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

R2

Half a Chance
Chocolate Gelato
Two Minute Drill

#1 HALF A CHANCE: Is the lone runner with experience in the first 2-year-old race of the meet, and she did everything but win last time out. She was beaten less than a length, was five lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since worked well twice at Keeneland; #6 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Hammered for $475,000 earlier this year and has been training steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. The outside draw is a plus, and it wouldn’t be shocking if these connections had their first debutante of the season ready to go; #5 TWO MINUTE DRILL: Sold for $210,000 (seven times the sire’s stud fee) and is out of a Grade 1-winning sprinter. The works seem solid enough, and she may be a big enough price to provide value in vertical exotics.

R3

No Burn (MTO)
High Tide
Grand Journey

#4 HIGH TIDE: Takes a significant class drop after a strong spring downstate. He topped starter allowance foes twice before finishing a fast-closing fourth against optional claiming foes. Jose Lezcano knows this one well and should get plenty of pace to chase; #9 GRAND JOURNEY: Topped $25,000 claimers last time out and climbs up the ladder here. This is a tough spot for the level, but he fits on figures, boasts considerable back class, and has enough early speed to work out an ideal trip; #2 BE HERE: Has won two in a row with a pair of wildly-different trips. He wired them last time out at Delaware Park after making up as many as 15 lengths two back. This high-percentage outfit must be respected.

R4

Cheeky Tico (MTO)
Remote
Grand Cay

#3 REMOTE: Makes the most sense in a puzzling turf marathon. He was second at this distance downstate last time, Joel Rosario sees fit to ride back for Christophe Clement, and he should at least have enough tactical speed to be reasonably close early; #5 GRAND CAY: Adds blinkers for Shug McGaughey and was a bit wide last time when fourth behind a much-the-best winner. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, and perhaps the blinkers will get him a bit more engaged early; #1 TIZ A GIANT: Is bred to run all day long and makes his first marathon start here. He’s by Tiznow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and has every right to improve at a price against a group that doesn’t seem to include any world-beaters.

R5

Majority Partner
Tommy Gun
Catching Cupid

#3 MAJORITY PARTNER: Hasn’t started since April but has been working very well here and runs for a claiming tag for the first time. He showed speed against a better group last time, and he stands a big chance if he’s ready to fire; #4 TOMMY GUNN: Adds blinkers in his first start as a gelding. He’s another dropping into the maiden claiming rank for a sharp outfit, and Irad rides back; #2 CATCHING CUPID: Probably needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first try since November. Charlton Baker trainees tend to move forward second off the bench, and such an improvement may be enough in this wide-open sprint.

R6

Life Changer (MTO)
King Moonracer
Just Say When

#9 KING MOONRACER: Merits respect as a closer in a race full of early speed. His 2022 debut off a long break was sharp, as he just missed when second at this level downstate. Castellano fits him well, and he’s the one they’ll have to hold off late; #4 JUST SAY WHEN: Has a win and two seconds from three starts and runs two straight races without a layoff line for the first time. He was second in a pretty fast turf sprint two back at Gulfstream and has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #1 STARRYSTARRYKNIGHT: Benefited from a race that fell apart late to get out of the maiden ranks. This is a steep class hike, but the abundance of early zip in here may mean this one has a shot to pick up the pieces for a minor award at a big price.

R7

Angitude
Tarabi
Gina Romantica

#4 ANGITUDE: Stretches out after a first-level allowance score at Churchill and has a running style that hints she’ll like this route. Smart money says inside speed will do well out of the new Wilson chute, and it’s tough to imagine this speedy daughter of Violence being taken back early; #7 TARABI: Has yet to run a bad race in her four-start career, one that includes a pair of minor awards in Grade 1 races. On talent, she more than fits here, but the outside draw could present a real obstacle given the extremely short run into the turn; #2 GINA ROMANTICA: Has a record that looks miles better if you draw a line through the Grade 3 Beaumont, where no horse was beating Matareya. The third-place finisher from her last race has since come back to win, and while I unfortunately doubt we’ll get the 8-1 morning line price given the connections, she merits respect in the first stakes race of the 2022 season.

R8

Customer List
Canisy
Santa Giulia

#6 CUSTOMER LIST: Was probably entered in the Penn Oaks just to make sure the race went. That event was won by the classy Haughty, and there are no such monsters here. She gets Lasix for the first time second off the bench, has posted two straight bullet drills, and looks well-meant for powerhouse connections; #1 CANISY: Just missed last time out after rating in an event completely devoid of early speed. There seems to be some pace to chase in here, and she’s got a big chance if Javier Castellano can work out a trip from the inside draw; #13 SANTA GIULIA: Needs a scratch to draw in but merits a look if she runs. She gets Lasix in her stateside debut after breaking her maiden overseas and, like my top pick, has posted back-to-back bullet works for Chad Brown.

R9

Summer Promise
Just Cindy
Vedareo

#9 SUMMER PROMISE: Never looked like a loser in her debut, where she won by five lengths and ran to her lofty $500,000 price tag. Her lone recorded drill since that race was a smashing four-furlong move at Churchill, and she looms large for D. Wayne Lukas in the Grade 3 Schuylerville; #1 JUST CINDY: Showed some maturity at first asking, when she rallied from fourth to win going away. That’s not an easy thing for a debuting runner to do, and she may have developed quickly enough to overcome the rail draw against a speedy group; #4 VEDAREO: Was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut at Parx, which she won easily enough. The most recent works indicate that wasn’t a fluke, and when this barn comes up from Philadelphia with 2-year-olds, those runners are usually well-meant.

R10

Fast Corey
Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Rigby

#5 FAST COREY: Has posted insane early fractions in all three of her starts to date and runs for a tag for the first time. These are aggressive connections, so the drop doesn’t concern me, and I just cannot see any other runner coming close to this one early on. Such a scenario would make her very tough to catch late; #4 RIGBY: Nearly capitalized on the drop into the claiming ranks when a close second last month at Belmont. She wound up on the lead that day, but she’s also shown she can rate, which gives Luis Saez plenty of options; #9 QUEENS DANCER: Will be a big price after shipping in from Finger Lakes, but her lone turf start to date is probably the best race of her career. They went pretty fast early on that day, and it’s logical to think a return to the lawn will be to her benefit. Perhaps a win is too much to ask, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she hits the board at a large number in the Opening Day finale.

Saratoga Pre-Meet Musings Ahead of the 2022 Stand

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’re three days out from the start of the 2022 Saratoga meet. It’s an exciting time to be a horse racing fan, and, from my standpoint, it’s just as thrilling to be gearing up to deliver high-quality content for every race, every day.

Chances are you’re on this site because of my Saratoga stuff. This will act as a refresher for how things will work this summer, as well as a repository for several thoughts rushing through my head as a new summer meet beckons in upstate New York.

The content, and when it’s coming

I’m one of five featured handicappers in The Pink Sheet, a daily publication run by The Saratogian. It’s sold outside the track every day, and they’ve generously allowed me to post my stuff on my site as well.

Last summer, content on this little site, promoted solely on my social media and in a few published pieces, attracted more than 22,000 views. Of all the numbers and stats you’ll read in this piece, that’s the one that stuns me the most. To those that are preparing to come back for more this time around, thank you. You’re appreciated, you’re valued, and you’re the reason I still produce this content!

Unlike the other four Pink Sheet handicappers (worthy opponents, one and all), my content also features detailed analysis of each race, plus a bankroll blurb. I start each summer with $1,000, and you can track my fluctuations each day. One note here: All bankroll plays assume races carded for turf stay there. Surface changes void all plays, as do scratches.

Picks and analysis will generally be available about 36 hours before the races. For example, Thursday is opening day, and my content will be posted on Tuesday night. This is for several reasons, not the least of which is so editors in Saratoga aren’t waiting for me on deadline when I’m on the west coast and three hours behind. Bankroll plays will be available at the conclusion of the prior day’s action (if I could write that stuff in advance, I’d never lose!).

Last summer…was a really, REALLY good one. My 142 top-pick winners led all public handicappers at local media outlets. My ROI was $2.04, which meant you turned a profit by betting each of my top picks all summer long. My bankroll blurbs also proved profitable, as I grew a starting stake of $1,000 to $1,277.10.

I can’t promise I’ll replicate that success. It’s far and away the best Saratoga meet I’ve ever had as a public handicapper. In all honesty, it’s probably one of the best Saratoga performances by any every-race, every-day public handicapper in the media corps in recent memory. That isn’t ego or bluster. It’s grounded in numbers, made public for everyone to see every day.

There are a few things I can promise, though. The motivation for those promises comes from a strange place.

My approach

During and after the meet, there were a number of things that were said by several people that I noticed, and I took a few of them personally. It would appear my existence (and, in this case, my success) rubbed some people the wrong way.

Here are some facts: I love this game, I love the puzzles that are presented on a daily basis, and I love pari-mutuel wagering. It’s my money against your money and the money of anyone else who wants to put it down. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose, but either way, there’s another puzzle to solve in 30 minutes. Want to talk horses? Grab your form, pull up a chair, and let’s do it.

You have to love those things, because this game is HARD, especially at the highest level. Public handicappers don’t have the option to skip races (as an aside, many who bash analysts on network broadcasts would be very wise to remember this). We grind, and we grind, and we grind some more, and after 40 days, we see where we stand when the dust settles.

When good things happen, I’m going to celebrate. It might put a target on my back, but if you’re not proud of hard work leading to tangible success, why do the work?

I respect everyone else who does this, at Saratoga and for any track, anywhere in the world. If someone beats me and claims either the all-media title or the Pink Sheet title, I’ll shake his or her hand, look him or her in the eye, say “good game,” and mean it. If anyone wants to believe otherwise, that’s his or her right. And it’s my right to say he or she is full of it.

After last summer, though, something I said in the heat of the meet rings true. Twitter egomaniacs can pound their chests about who the best handicapper on horse racing Twitter is. 10 months out of the year, I genuinely don’t care who’s mentioned.

However, from mid-July through Labor Day at one of horse racing’s last remaining cathedrals, if that conversation doesn’t include me, it’s a bad one.

When it comes to Saratoga, I won’t be outworked. When you come onto my website or buy a Pink Sheet at the track, you’re getting the product of someone who enjoys getting his hands dirty in the name of both competition and helping people make money.

I can’t promise a meet like last summer, or a day like the last Friday of the meet. I went 8-for-10, picked six straight winners in the middle of the card, publicly gave out a late Pick Four that paid nearly $400, and drove my former podcast co-host crazy.

What I can promise is the kind of process you, the reader, have hopefully come to expect from me. If that leads to results that tick a few people off, so be it.

Odds and ends

There are two significant renovations at Saratoga that will be front and center this summer. I’m not crazy about either of them.

The first is the Wilson chute. It runs parallel to Nelson Avenue and allows Saratoga to card one-mile dirt races. On the surface, this seems fine. More options aren’t a bad thing, and if there are enough dirt milers on the grounds to fill races, so be it.

However, two-turn dirt races are growing more and more sparse. The American horse racing industry is breeding for “brilliance” and one-furlong times at 2-year-old sales, not for horses to have long careers or run longer distances.

Consider this: The first two Saratoga cards are out, and they feature a total of two two-turn dirt races. They’re both mid-level claiming races, the types that may not have existed in Saratoga condition books a few decades ago.

If the Wilson chute provides another wrinkle in the condition book and contributes to a fun product, great. Still, I don’t like the direction this is going. If we’re stretching out seven-furlong races, cool. If two-turn races that are already too rare happen less, I think that’s a loss for horse racing.

The other renovation comes in the form of a new story on top of the paddock bar. It’s become a new premium seating option, available to groups for a few thousand bucks per day. I tweeted about this, and I’d like to further express myself in an environment that doesn’t have a character limit.

I grew up going to Saratoga with my dad. We’d get there early and get a picnic table in the backyard. I’d politely pester jockeys for autographs before the race, on the walk from the jockey’s room to the paddock.

The changes that have been made are chipping away at the types of experiences that got me hooked on this game, and for what? Nobody asked for a section of picnic tables by the Big Red Spring to be roped off and available for a fee. Nobody asked for access to jockeys to be limited before races. Nobody asked for Teresa Giudice to be trotted out as a “celebrity guest,” or for Chris Kay’s thankfully-aborted brainchild, a jockey house in the Saratoga paddock that would’ve eliminated what little jockey access still exists.

In the past, NYRA has handled premium seating with aplomb. The 1863 Club opened to rave reviews a few years ago, and The Stretch seems to be well-received, too.

However, I can’t shake one thought: Nobody asked for the massive structure that now exists by the paddock. It comes across as wildly exclusionary, and consider this: What happens if a 2-year-old, or any horse for that matter, gets spooked by noises coming from up above? Was this a thought NYRA had when constructing the building, or did the pursuit of the almighty dollar render that concept meaningless?

Also: Sorry to say it, but the building just seems ugly and soulless.

I don’t have a particular axe to grind (sorry to disappoint you conspiracy-minded folks out there, but most turf writers don’t). I give NYRA credit where it’s due, especially on their excellent TV programming. These two ideas, though, seem like misses, and I’d be delighted to be proven wrong on that.

Updates on life, the Kentucky Derby, and one of horse racing’s biggest issues

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s been quite a while since I’ve written something here. There are a bunch of reasons for that, and a bunch of reasons why I’m putting this together.

My “new” job

As you probably know, I’m back in the gambling industry on a full-time basis. A bit more than three years after The Daily Racing Form saw me as surplus to requirements, I’ve latched on at Catena Media as a Content Manager. They’re an affiliate marketing company in the space, and I’m having a blast wearing many hats.

Since coming on board in January, I’ve assumed a leadership role with several sites in the company’s “play” network. Each state gets a site, and the ones in my bucket are California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Ohio. I’m managing a fantastic team and working with people who are insanely passionate and spectacular at what they do. It’s been a fun few months, and it feels good to be back.

In addition to managing those sites, I’ve also started producing plenty of horse racing content for Playfecta, the company’s resident racing page. This includes betting strategies and looks at Kentucky Derby prep races.

Catena’s also been wonderful about allowing me to freelance for non-competitors. You may have seen my Derby Bubble column for the fine folks at The Paulick Report, and, predictably, the one thing I insisted on prior to coming aboard was an ability to continue my role with The Pink Sheet each summer for as long as they’ll have me. They were fantastic about this, so my summer Saratoga coverage remains unchanged.

If I may be allowed a quick detour into “wrestling promo” mode: This means that your reigning, defending, undisputed Saratoga all-media handicapping champion will be back this July to defend his title. If you don’t like it, play along for 40 days, publish your picks, and beat me. Contrary to what some may like to believe, if you do that, I’ll be the first in line to shake your hand, say “good game,” and mean it.

All of my Kentucky Derby stuff

I figured it would be handy to have a one-stop shop with links to all of my content focused on Kentucky Derby Week. The below list includes written articles, podcasts, and videos, and if you’re curious about how I see things over the next few days at Churchill Downs, these are what you’ll want to dive into.

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

Horse racing has a problem

Earlier this week, the plight of a young woman in racing got my attention. Mary Cage chronicled what went into an excruciating decision to leave the game she loved. Her explanation was raw and honest, and what some interpreted as “millennial softness” was, in actuality, a much-needed dose of humanity.

I related to this right away. When I feel something, I feel it more intensely than most. That’s a quality horse racing doesn’t have much use for. My career almost ended before it really got started due to a situation where that came into play (we’re getting closer to when I can feel comfortable telling that story publicly, but we’re not there yet). It played a role in why I left TVG, despite 99.9% of people I worked with/for being outstanding professionals and people (I spent most of an afternoon with several of them last weekend at Golden Gate Fields!).

When Mary talked about the issues she faced, it hit home. My challenges were different, but rooted in a lot of the same concepts. I bent over backwards to help a variety of companies and people. I wore many hats, I worked long hours, and I was ultimately deemed expendable by a machine that seems to take pride in chewing up and spitting out those who care about maintaining it.

Predictably, while Mary got plenty of support from some of the industry’s best people, she was dragged by some of the worst. Not everyone is going to agree on everything, and that’s fine. Some of the attacks got personal, though, with insinuations made that she lacked a proper work ethic or other qualities commenters deemed necessary for success in racing.

At the same time this was going on, a company came out with the first of several “explosive videos” designed to lobby for causes and people in racing. Predictably, the name “Bob Baffert” was dropped four seconds into the video, which aimed to pit Baffert’s camp of loyalists against Churchill Downs and its backers.

This is going to sound harsh, and perhaps the firm has better ideas up its sleeve moving forward. Having said that, after seeing the nonsense Mary had to deal with (as well as stories of other young people in racing being forced to question the longevity of their careers)…I really don’t care about what happens to Bob Baffert anymore.

Racing is the only billion-dollar industry I’ve discovered where passion to make things better, and ideas that require short-term sacrifice for long-term gains across the board, are frequently frowned upon. People like Mary shouldn’t be chased out of the industry. They want to work, and they want to make things better. Instead of deciding they’re expendable, give them all the work they want, and get out of the way while they do it.

We can go on and on about things like Baffert, trainers, breeding, and any number of issues. Contrary to the belief of some of the trolls out there, I welcome respectful disagreement on all topics (it’s the “respectful” part that’s often a bridge too far, I’ve found).

Here’s a much more important thought to ponder, though: If we’re turning away people who actively want to have long, sustained careers in racing, what chance do we have to attract those who are indifferent about the sport? Furthermore, what chance do we have to change the minds of those who have decided they don’t like it?

Look up at the amount of content I’ve produced for two days of racing, on top of my normal, 40-hour job. In addition, I’m writing this at almost 11 pm Pacific time on Thursday, May 5. Tomorrow is Kentucky Oaks Day, with a 7:30 am first post. I’ll be up for all 13 races, from maiden claimers to the main event, and I’ll be ready to do it again for 14 more races Saturday, including the sport’s biggest one.

All of this is my contribution to the game. I’m a handicapper and content creator. I write and produce things for people to enjoy, with the hopes that some of it helps people make money. It’s why I enjoyed last year’s Kentucky Derby so much. My show (which included a special appearance from my father) gave out $30 in tickets that returned more than $1,000. As hokey as it sounds, buying him and my girlfriend a nice dinner after the races is something I’ll remember for the rest of my life. If my analysis and insight helped give someone else a moment like that, even better.

I love horse racing.

There are times I wish horse racing loved itself.

Medina Spirit, One Handicapper’s Peaks and Valleys, and Horse Racing’s Next Steps

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It was 8:38 am when I got the text message.

I had just gotten out of bed and was getting ready for work. My phone vibrated with news that Medina Spirit had died following a five-furlong drill at Santa Anita.

I almost went back to bed.

I’m not a vet, I’m not an expert on the structure of the American thoroughbred, and I’m not here to bash certain people within the game just because it’s the fun, trendy thing to do. I’m a fan, handicapper, and content producer that’s had, simultaneously, the best and most chaotic year of my life betting on and talking about horses.

Medina Spirit is a big reason for that. Sent away at 13-1 in the Kentucky Derby, he was left alone on the lead when Rock Your World didn’t break. Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, and Essential Quality came up to challenge him, but Medina Spirit refused to yield, got home, and triggered a celebration in my Northern California apartment that was probably audible up and down the West Coast.

We know the rest of the story. He tested positive for a banned substance, and a lengthy legal battle has outlived its subject. After his death, we still don’t know if we can call Medina Spirit the official Kentucky Derby winner. He won a few races, was ridden for second behind Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and may very well win Champion 3-Year-Old Male honors at the Eclipse Awards.

On its own, Medina Spirit’s death would be bad enough. A high-profile Bob Baffert trainee dying of an apparent heart attack after a workout, while the subject of a lengthy drug investigation, is reason enough to cringe. However, it’s the latest blow to a sport that’s been crippled lately by one public relations disaster after another over the past few years.

Santa Anita was put through the ringer in 2019, when a series of breakdowns caused an avalanche of bad press (including an astoundingly tone-deaf one-liner on the ABC show “Black-ish”) and forced significant changes to the racing product. I worked at Santa Anita for a year and a half. It’s a cathedral with fantastic people steering the ship and making the engine go. They’re back racing down the hill, and the surface is far safer than it was nearly three years ago.

Good luck, however, telling that to people whose exposure to Santa Anita comes in the form of blurbs on the ESPN “Bottom Line” talking about breakdowns and deaths rather than consuming the product on a regular basis.

Medina Spirit’s win in the Kentucky Derby triggered legal activity from all corners of the racing world. After news of the positive test made national headlines, some handicappers felt cheated enough to file a lawsuit against Churchill Downs, demanding that bettors who were beaten by a drugged horse be properly reimbursed.

Speaking of bettors, there’s no other way to explain what happened on the first day of the 2021 Breeders’ Cup than three simple words: They got hosed. Modern Games was let through a starting gate prior to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. In a sea of confusion, he was scratched, then un-scratched, then announced as running for purse money only. The talented Charles Appleby runner won as much the best, because of course he did, and the reaction from the Del Mar grandstand was a thunderous chorus of boos, one that I’ve never heard at a track before and don’t plan on ever hearing again.

As a sport, where are we on controlling the narrative that reaches novices and those who have never been to the track before? Where are we on a response that reassures the racing fanbase that the racetrack is still a fun place to go, and that one’s gambling dollar is more respected there than at a blackjack table, a slot machine, or a daily fantasy sports provider? How is it possible that a sport with many incredibly wealthy, smart people at the top level can be playing defense this much?

– – – – –

I can’t address those questions without a look at where I’m at. I don’t work in horse racing full-time anymore. I’ve been out of the business for three years, ever since I was a casualty of budget cuts at The Daily Racing Form. To some, that’s a very good thing, and to others, I’m no different from other ignorant washouts who like to toot their own horn.

Those people don’t know me. By and large, they know the silly guy who posts professional wrestling memes and fires up Ric Flair’s promo from the 1992 Royal Rumble when he wins. News flash: If any of you, and I mean ANY OF YOU, take that stuff seriously and think that’s a true indication of how much I think I matter, re-evaluate your life choices and check your rear end for a stick.

If you took this seriously…really???

What people other than my family and closest friends don’t see is the time I spend, on top of a full-time job, creating written and video content with the intensity of someone who still does it on a full-time basis. I’m probably the only guy left who attacks the Saratoga all-media handicapping race the way writers and horseplayers did 20 years ago, and I make no apologies for that. When kids my age were reading Roald Dahl, I was reading Russ Harris. Putting out a quality product matters to me, and that’s not going to change for as long as I do it.

My main rush, though, comes from helping the once-a-year track-goers cash tickets and enjoy themselves at the track. I had a friend tell me once that I cared more about people knowing I was right than actually being right. Heck yes, I do, and it’s because if people know I was right and they bet what I liked, they made money! What rush is better than that?

I said all of that, and went on what seemed like a few meandering tangents, to bring it back to one point: If racing continues to shoot itself in the foot with no plans to convince people it’s fun to come to the track, there may not be once-a-year track-goers anymore.

– – – – –

I still love this game. I love writing about it, I love going on-camera to talk about it, I love reading the form to find an edge, I love betting that edge, and I love being right. I’ll answer questions from people about the sport all day long, if I can, and any sort of ambassadorship I can provide pales in comparison to what horse racing has given me.

That said, I’ve never been confrontational when I meet people who don’t like (or, in some cases, actively hate) horse racing. It’s not going to be everyone’s thing, and that’s okay. Where we find trouble is when we ask ourselves this dangerous, two-part question: How many people have been turned off by issues in racing the past few years, and what can we do to bring them back?

Remember what I said about how much I think I matter? If you think I’m an egotistical maniac, strap in for this one: For all of my flaws (and there are people who will gladly take the time to list all of them), I’m REMARKABLY self-aware. If I took my annual handle (it’s none of your business, but it’s not totally insignificant) and put that money and my content creation efforts into any other relevant field, I know I wouldn’t be missed by racing at large. That isn’t a knock on myself. It’s just a fact.

The same can be said for people I know who have bet considerably more than me and vowed that they’re done with the sport. On their own, one’s individual handle going elsewhere isn’t going to break the game or send shockwaves through the industry. However, if the whales leave, and the medium-sized fish leave, and the small fish leave without laying eggs (in this hypothetical, the eggs represent people introduced to the game and given reasons to be excited about it), what’s left? In that instance, horse racing suddenly turns into yacht racing, where rich people compete for each other’s money and nobody in any other tax bracket cares.

Any changes made are going to take time to implement. Expecting an overnight revolution when the status quo hasn’t been seriously threatened on a national level for decades is irrational, and anyone taking the opportunity to demand such a movement should know that. However, those in the game who think everything is fine and that the sport can police itself are also misguided (not to add yet another tangent, but if the sport could police itself, why did it take the FBI to run Jorge Navarro and Jason Servis out of the industry?).

There need to be constructive, inclusive conversations about how to fix the issues in our game. Women, minorities, and those that haven’t traditionally had prominent seats at that table need to be involved. Bettors and owners need to be respected in equal measure, because the sport doesn’t work without both revenue streams. The words, “but that’s the way we’ve always done it,” should be cause for a public flogging, and anyone with conflicts of interest should be required to leave the room when a close-to-home topic is being discussed.

I don’t know how we get fans back who say they’re done with the game and mean it. We don’t know the official Kentucky Derby winner. We don’t know for sure which trainers are dirty and which ones are clean. We don’t have a concrete plan in place that ensures a Modern Games fiasco doesn’t happen again. Shoot, going back to the 2019 Kentucky Derby, we still don’t have one uniform answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?”

What I do know is that doing nothing won’t work.

I’m not asking racing to solve all of those problems instantly. However, here’s a simple prayer from someone who gives a damn about the sport surviving and thriving at all levels: Can’t we at least get the car out of “neutral?”