SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/23/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908.50

One of the great things about steeplechase racing is the chance it offers for thoroughbreds to have fruitful second careers. Ones that may be underachievers on the flat can find their form over fences, and it’s always cool to see that happen.

Snap Decision won his sixth straight race in taking Wednesday’s Jonathan Kiser. He did so while carrying an enormous impost of 162 pounds and making up lots of ground in the sprint for home, which isn’t something you see very often in steeplechase races. One has to think a graded stakes race is on the horizon for him, and it’ll be cool to see if his ascent continues when he tries those deeper waters.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Money was in on Tenderfoot, who was bet down from 4-1 to 3/2 before the gates were sprung in the fourth. However, he was one-paced and finished off the board, which kept me in the red.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I really like the late Pick Four sequence, assuming races carded for turf stay there. My 50-cent ticket starting in the seventh race reads as follows: 3,8,9,10,12 with 1,4,9 with 1,4,5 with 11. I think this may be a way to squeeze some value out of a short-priced favorite in the nightcap, one that doubles as my best bet of the day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Financialstability, Race 10
Longshot: Invest, Race 2

R1

Moscato
Optimus Prime
Pravalaguna

#5 MOSCATO: Came back running with an easy score against Grade 3 foes and looms large for world-class steeplechase trainer Jack Fisher. His lone true misfire since a long layoff came in last year’s Lonesome Glory, when he bobbled near a fence; #3 OPTIMUS PRIME: Won the 2018 New York Turf Writers Cup and will be tough if he’s right. The question is, can he fire his best shot off a layoff of more than a year?; #2 PRAVALAGUNA: Is another coming in off a long break, but won her U.S. Debut by eight lengths and is ambitiously spotted by Fisher. She’s got plenty of early zip and will likely be prominent for most of the running.

R2

Invest
Thomas Shelby
Northern Haze

#4 INVEST: May be a bit of a price off of a last-out clunker. However, he chased a solid pace that day, and this seems like a bit of a class drop. Rosario sees fit to ride, and if he gets comfortable early, he could be tough to run down; #6 THOMAS SHELBY: Takes a gigantic drop for owner/trainer Wesley Ward and has enough back form to go off of. Is this just a move by an aggressive outfit with lots of horses and wins, or is this an attempt to dump the horse?; #8 NORTHERN HAZE: Makes sense if you toss his last two races, and I think there’s reason to do that. He was off for five months after his race in December and broke terribly in his return downstate. He’s run well here in the past, and this is a barn capable of popping at a price.

R3

Stunning Princess
Lost Lake
Mo Normal

#4 STUNNING PRINCESS: Has been working lights-out ahead of her debut, and I’m looking forward to seeing if that form translates to talent in the afternoons. Danny Gargan and Manny Franco have done great work together of late, and it seems as though there’s lots to like; #7 LOST LAKE: Is the only runner in here with experience, and that could be a big help. She’s by Noble Mission and bred for turf, so I’m not too turned off by the first-out clunker at Monmouth; #3 MO NORMAL: Debuts for the red-hot Christophe Clement barn, but there’s some stuff I’m not crazy about. She’s only got one five-furlong work on her tab, and while her dam was a multiple stakes winner, she hasn’t come close to reproducing herself yet.

R4

Fresco
Dixie Cannon
Nicky Scissors

#1 FRESCO: May be a heavy favorite, which isn’t something said often about maidens in stakes races. However, she’s run well going two turns against open company for powerful connections, and the rest of this field isn’t any great shakes; #2 DIXIE CANNON: Comes up from Maryland to run against state-breds for the first time. She’s won twice going two turns and likely needed her seasonal debut off of a long hiatus; #6 NICKY SCISSORS: Has left the Jason Servis barn and will make her first start for Brad Cox. She’s here in the event rain hits and moves the race to the dirt.

R5

Instinctive Rhythm
O’Trouble
Ahead of Plan

#7 INSTINCTIVE RHYTHM: Hammered for $350,000 at auction last year and has been training very well for George Weaver ahead of his debut. There are lots of bullets on the tab, and Castellano’s presence could be telling; #2 O’TROUBLE: Showed speed last time out in his first race since August, where he tired to finish third in a swiftly-run race. He should be in line for a step forward second off the bench; #4 AHEAD OF PLAN: Has burned money as the favorite in all three prior starts and has not run since August of last year. He’s been gelded and goes out for Chad Brown, but given his likely status as a short-priced favorite, I’m going elsewhere.

R6

Primacy (MTO)
Simplicity
Bareeqa

#8 SIMPLICITY: Is a European invader getting Lasix for the first time, which is one of my favorite angles. Her prior connections thought enough of her to run her in five stakes races in France last season, and the Rosario/Clement tag team is formidable; #5 BAREEQA: Is a fun mare to root for, with 13 wins in 44 career starts and earnings of nearly a half-million dollars. She’s shown a powerful closing kick, and I don’t think she’s lost a step as a 7-year-old; #1 BALON ROSE: Goes second off the layoff for Chad Brown and didn’t have a great trip in her return at Churchill Downs. She could win, but her only prior score came with a perfect trip at Aqueduct and this race came up pretty salty.

R7

Fierce Lady
Bustin to Please
My Roxy Girl

#3 FIERCE LADY: Hits me as the one to beat in a huge field, provided she’s ready to run off the bench. She’s been going against stakes-quality opposition since breaking her maiden last year, and she could have the speed to wire this group; #12 BUSTIN TO PLEASE: Came running late to score against claimers at Belmont and certainly deserves a try against this kind of opposition. She’s 6-for-11 lifetime, and sometimes horses just know how to find the wire; #8 MY ROXY GIRL: Returns from the sidelines for Linda Rice, who’s enjoyed a strong start to the summer. Her two-back win against open starter allowance foes was good, and she won here impressively a season ago.

R8

French Reef
Modesto
Its a Wrap

#4 FRENCH REEF: Showed speed in his debut at Aqueduct, and while he hasn’t been seen since November, he’s worked well for the Brown barn and looms large. It’s tough to debut going long, and I think he may have gotten a lot out of that experience; #1 MODESTO: Has looked like a runner in morning drills for first-out wizard Wesley Ward. He’s by Uncle Mo and has shown zip in several gate drills, which leads me to believe the rail draw may not be a problem; #9 ITS A WRAP: Draws wide second off the bench after being DQ’d from second against similar downstate. He’s got early speed and may have a chance to clear the field from that outside post going into the turn.

R9

Honest Mischief
Mihos
Wendell Fong

#4 HONEST MISCHIEF: Heads a stakes-caliber allowance event, and has looked like a top-tier sprinter at times during his career. There’s no shame in running second behind Volatile, as he did in his comeback race, and it helps that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead; #5 MIHOS: Cuts back in distance after a dud in the Grade 3 Westchester, and this hits me as the route he wants. His score going seven furlongs two back was strong, and the recent bullet at Belmont indicates he’s in good form; #1 WENDELL FONG: Chased Whitmore twice this spring at Oaklawn and makes his first start for Robertino Diodoro, who tends to move horses up quickly. He’s got enough zip to go early from his inside post, which could make him competitive the whole way around.

R10

Financialstability
Mine the Coin
Deputy Flag

#11 FINANCIALSTABILITY: Appears the most likely winner on the card thanks to his back form and a significant class drop for powerful connections. He draws well with the outside post and doesn’t appear to be facing a strong group for the condition; #9 MINE THE COIN: Was second against similar at Belmont in a race that saw him step forward pretty dramatically. If another step forward is in the offing third off the bench, he could be a player at a price; #3 DEPUTY FLAG: Misfired in a turf experiment that came first off a five-month break. I can easily forgive that race, and despite my concerns about his staying power, I concede he looks like the main early speed.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/22/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $928.50

My girlfriend is a third-grade teacher. She doesn’t know what the upcoming school year will look like, but she’s constantly working hard to make sure her kids have the best possible learning environment while they’re in her classroom.

One of her primary goals before students return is to diversify her classroom library. She’s noticed that children from underrepresented groups don’t always encounter literary characters that look like them, which can make engaging them in books more difficult than it should be. She’s got a plan to do that, and she’s raising funds to make that happen.

To learn more, go to my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne) and check out my pinned tweet. If you feel compelled to help, know that I appreciate it very much, and that a bunch of third-graders in the Oakland Unified School District will as well.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: It was a lousy opening week for yours truly. Both bankroll plays fizzled, and I dropped another $20.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: This will be tough, as heavy rain is in the forecast as I type this. However, I’ll gamble that #7 TENDERFOOT, who exits a key race that has produced two impressive next-out winners already, will respond to an aggressive class drop. I’ll put $20 to win on him and hope we get that 4-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Snap Decision, Race 1
Longshot: Choose Happiness, Race 10

R1

Snap Decision
Galway Kid
Bodes Well

#2 SNAP DECISION: Turned into one of the better steeplechasers in the country last year and comes in on a five-race winning streak. His seasonal debut was excellent, and I just cannot see another horse beating him here; #4 GALWAY KID: Won two in a row after being ambitiously spotted in his debut back in October. He hails from the barn of Jonathan Sheppard, who’s no stranger to success in jump races at Saratoga; #7 BODES WELL: Merits a look in the exotics due to the likely race shape. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed signed on, and there’s a chance this one could lead them a long way at a price.

R2

Box of Chocolates
Bernin’ Thru Gold
Passcode

#3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES: Has lost 15 of his 16 career starts, but he was a good second against slightly better last time out and was claimed by Robertino Diodoro. There’s plenty of speed signed on, and that should set up for his late kick; #7 BERNIN’ THRU GOLD: Drops way down in class and has run up against some stakes-quality foes in the past. The outside post could help him, and he may have found his friends; #6 PASSCODE: Ran reasonably well here twice last summer and comes in second off a long layoff. The 12-1 morning line odds hit me as an overlay, and if you’re an exotics player, he hits me as a must-use.

R3

Cross Border
Blewitt
Yankee Division (MTO)

#1 CROSS BORDER: Will likely be the shortest-priced favorite of the day if the Lubash stays on turf. He was beaten just a length in the Grade 1 Manhattan last time out, and he looms large against what seems like an overmatched group; #6 BLEWITT: Is head and shoulders above this group if it goes to the main track, but has a respectable turf pedigree and may not be out of his element if it stays on the grass. The Velazquez/Pletcher tag team merits respect; #4 DANTE’S FIRE: Came from another zip code to win going away on Independence Day and may be rounding into form for Mike Maker. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

R4

Tenderfoot
Breithorn
Lost in Rome

#7 TENDERFOOT: Exits a race that’s proven to be incredibly strong. Winner Yaupon was one of the most impressive horses of opening week, third-place finisher Savvy graduated at Keeneland, and this one drops in for a tag first off the geld; #2 BREITHORN: Goes second off the bench for Bill Mott and is another dropping in class. The turf experiment last time out didn’t work, but perhaps the shallower waters are what he needs; #8 LOST IN ROME: Has been competitive against similar and rallied to be second downstate last month. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

R5

Three Jokers
Riken (MTO)
Maxwell Esquire

#4 THREE JOKERS: Looms large on either turf or dirt. His pedigree says grass will not be a problem, and he’s shown significant early zip against better in three stakes starts on the main track; #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE: Goes out for Christophe Clement, who won everything that wasn’t nailed down during opening week. He was fourth in a stakes race downstate and will likely be rolling late; #3 INSIDE INFO: Was claimed by Linda Rice last month and goes for his third straight win. This is an aggressive jump up in class, but there’s some turf in his pedigree and he’s 1-for-1 over a wet dirt track as well.

R6

O Shea Can U See
Eye Luv Lulu
Just Right

#4 O SHEA CAN U SEE: Hasn’t run a bad one in his last five starts and was second against similar at Belmont. With so much early speed in the race, I want a horse that will be running well late, and this one fits the bill at a bit of a price; #3 EYE LUV LULU: Makes his first start since leaving the Jason Servis barn in the spring, and does so taking a steep drop in class. These connections are aggressive, so perhaps it’s not a total red flag, but at his likely price, I’ll look elsewhere for my top selection; #7 JUST RIGHT: Comes off an 11-month layoff for Todd Pletcher and cuts back in distance significantly. He broke his maiden sprinting here two summers ago, but this spot came up pretty tough for the level.

R7

Micromillion (MTO)
Madison Parc
Crescent Lady

#1 MADISON PARC: Goes back to the lawn in a wide-open race. Her debut going two turns on turf at Santa Anita was fine, the recent bullet workout at Keeneland inspires confidence, and she may be speedy enough to utilize her rail draw; #12 CRESCENT LADY: Drew a terrible post but may be talented enough to overcome it. She’s one of only a few in here with a desire to be on or near the lead, so she may be able to clear most of her rivals early; #4 TWO CENT TOOTSIE: Has had many chances but exits what may be a career-best effort downstate. Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back after that near-miss, and she may be a contender with a clean trip.

R8

La Hara
Wild Medagliad’oro
Gauguin

#6 LA HARA: Was 2-for-2 last year before going to the sidelines and looms large in his return to the races. Joel Rosario rides for Chad Brown, and the turf workout on June 26 jumps off the page; #2 WILD MEDAGLIAD’ORO: Is the one to beat if this gets rained off the turf, and may also have a shot if it stays on. He showed speed when third in a stakes race at Gulfstream last month, and he may be dangerous if he’s left alone early on; #5 GAUGUIN: Enjoys running second and third, which makes him an owner’s dream and a bettor’s nightmare. Still, if you’re playing vertical exotics, he can’t be ignored second off the bench.

R9

Singular Sensation
Sharp Starr
Eloquent Speaker

#8 SINGULAR SENSATION: Is the only runner in here to have had success going two turns. She was second at this route last summer, and she may take a leap forward second off the bench going back to her preferred configuration; #3 SHARP STARR: Stretches out after a runaway maiden win earlier this month. Two turns is a question mark, but there’s stamina in her pedigree, one that also hints an off track won’t be an issue; #7 ELOQUENT SPEAKER: Edged a next-out winner in her return from a four-month break last time out. She’s another stretching out from a sprint to a route, but she’s also eligible to move forward with conditioning.

R10

Choose Happiness
Lottie’s Mizzion
Gringotts

#12 CHOOSE HAPPINESS: Gets the nod on the class drop in a puzzling Wednesday finale. Her debut sprinting on dirt at Aqueduct back in February was fine, and it helps that that day’s runner-up came back to win at next asking; #3 LOTTIE’S MIZZION: Rallied to be third off a brief layoff last month and could enjoy the extra furlong she gets in this spot. There’s some mud pedigree here, and unlike others, she’s shown an ability to pass horses late; #7 GRINGOTTS: Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment downstate. She hit the board two and three back against similar company, and she’s another that could be charging late.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/19/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $948.50

Eclipse Award winner and close friend Joe Nevills and I came up with a genius idea, one NYRA could use to make a significant chunk of change. Why not bottle Big Red Spring water and make it available to ship? While it’s true this “water” tastes like lighter fluid, few things are more emblematic of a summer day at the Spa than seeing an unknowing individual be cajoled/tricked into taking a sip.

Doing this brings that fun directly to your home, while also adding a revenue stream that didn’t previously exist. NYRA, if you do this, all I ask in return is a modest royalty and for 10 24-packs of this elixir to be delivered to the Nevills compound in haste.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Momos won like a good thing in the opener, and in doing so turned my $31.50 Pick Five ticket into confetti.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got two tickets to finish off the weekend. First, I’ll try to extract some value out of my best bet of the day by singling likely third-race favorite #1 DOVIMA in $5 doubles starting in the second with #4 VINEYARD SOUND and #7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE. I’ll also put $10 to win on #4 CALDEE in the seventh, as I think she’s well-meant and the 6-1 morning line odds hit me as an overlay.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dovima, Race 3
Longshot: Caldee, Race 7

R1

Sky of Hook (MTO)
Dubb entry
Power Up Paynter

DUBB ENTRY: It’s tough to go against #1 DOWSE’S BEACH and #1A NEW YORK’S FINEST. They’re a combined 10-for-15 on this turf course, and it would be far from a shock if the entrymates ran 1-2 in the Sunday lid-lifter; #2 POWER UP PAYNTER: Is a consistent sort and seems best of the rest. He rallied from well back to light up the tote board at Belmont last time out, and Linda Rice tends to keep horses on the right track; #5 ROYAL ASSET: Hasn’t won in a while but has never finished worse than third in five starts over this turf course. He likely needed his last-out effort, and perhaps he takes a step forward to get a piece of this.

R2

Hardcore Folklore
Vineyard Sound
Deep Sea

#7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE: Returns to the scene of his last victory after an improved effort second off the bench downstate. There’s plenty of speed signed on to set up for his late kick, and talented trainer Charlton Baker may have him trending upward; #4 VINEYARD SOUND: Comes back to the dirt after a failed turf experiment last time out. His dirt race two back wasn’t all that bad, given it was his first start in three months and the winner and runner-up both came back to win; #5 DEEP SEA: Is a short price on the morning line, but I’m going to try to beat him. He hasn’t won since late-2018, and he seems to find ways to get himself into trouble. He’ll have a shot with a clean trip, but can he finally get one?

R3

Dovima
In Front
Johnnie Merle

#1 DOVIMA: Did everything but win in her debut downstate and looms very large in this event. Chad Brown’s numbers with second-out maidens are some of the best in the business, and she may not have caught the strongest group for the level; #4 IN FRONT: Is fittingly named, as she may inherit the early lead by default in what seems like an otherwise paceless race. She’s run into several next-out winners in the past, so there’s back class here as well; #5 JOHNNIE MERLE: Returns after being off since February following two efforts at Fair Grounds. She didn’t break well in either outing, and it’s entirely possible she’s matured during her five-month vacation.

R4

Candy Cornell
Twelfth Labour
Releasethethunder

#3 CANDY CORNELL: Is one of two contenders in here trained by Robertino Diodoro. He’s finished worse than second just once in five starts this season, and most of those efforts have come against groups that seem better than this bunch; #6 TWELFTH LABOUR: Was claimed by Diodoro last time out, and this barn has a track record of moving new acquisitions up significantly. He hasn’t won in more than two years, but his last-out effort at Churchill was solid and perhaps the change in barns will wake him up; #5 RELEASETHETHUNDER: May have needed his comeback race at Delaware Park, where he was beaten as the 3/2 favorite. That day’s winner has since come back to win again, though, and this one ran a number of strong sprint races a season ago.

R5

Effinity (MTO)
Martinez
Generazio entry

#2 MARTINEZ: Has been working well downstate for Shug McGaughey and is bred to be a solid turf runner. He’s by Twirling Candy, there’s class on the dam’s side of the pedigree, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; GENERAZIO ENTRY: I prefer #1A MISCHIEVOUS DREAM, who debuts for Christophe Clement and has a big shot despite an outside draw. He’s by Into Mischief, and his dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1-winning turfer Presious Passion; #4 THIN WHITE DUKE: Has hit the board twice in as many starts and tries turf for the first time. His turf Tomlinson rating of 333 is excellent, and Manny Franco has the return mount.

R6

Leitone (MTO)
Kroy
Sentry

#9 KROY: Seems like the main speed in a race that came up very strong for the level. He chased stakes-quality turfer Halladay three back, and if he’s unleashed early and dictates terms from the front end, he could be tough to catch late; #7 SENTRY: Won two in a row before going to the sidelines last fall and comes back in this spot. His best race could absolutely win, but if he’s at that level, why is he being entered for a tag rather than going in an allowance event?; #2 WILLING TO SPEED: Hits me as an overlay at his monstrous morning line price. He’s been competitive against decent company in all five of his starts this year, and John Velazquez could get him into a prime stalking position.

R7

Caldee
Lucifers Lair
Peachy Queen

#4 CALDEE: Has been working well for Brad Cox ahead of her unveiling and has every right to be a good one. Her gate drills, in particular, look impressive, and anything close to her 6-1 morning line price would hit me as an overlay; #9 LUCIFERS LAIR: Goes out for Todd Pletcher and gets a favorable outside draw in her unveiling. The work tab is consistent, and there’s lots to like, but why isn’t first-call rider John Velazquez aboard this one?; #6 PEACHY QUEEN: Fetched $180,000 at auction last September and comes in off of a bullet workout over this surface. She may be sitting on a big race, and if one materializes, rest assured you’ll hear about it ad nauseam given her sire.

R8

Light in the Sky
My Sassy Sarah
Saratoga Love

#5 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a two-horse race. She came up just short in her return to the races last month, and a step forward is logical second off the bench; #4 MY SASSY SARAH: Was third in the race my top pick exits, and like that one, that race was her first start in quite a while. Michelle Nevin’s horses tend to improve second off of layoffs, and she should be running well late; #2 SARATOGA LOVE: Responded to a drop in class with a wire-to-wire score downstate and tries winners for the first time. This is a tougher spot, but Rosario rides back for Clement and she should be prominent early.

R9

Cat’s Pajamas
Lashara
Stunning Sky

#8 CAT’S PAJAMAS: Has won two in a row since coming back to the races as a 3-year-old. Furthermore, there isn’t much early speed signed on for a race of this stature, so she could get an easy trip near a slow pace and have first run turning for home; #3 LASHARA: Ran second behind my top selection last time out and has shown a strong turn of foot. She’s got plenty of talent, but can she overcome a likely race shape that doesn’t set up for her running style?; #6 STUNNING SKY: Has considerable back class, having run in four straight stakes races leading up to this event. She’s another that could be compromised by a slow pace, but if they go faster than anticipated early, she could be in line to pick up the pieces late.

R10

Malibu Pro
Shadow Rider
Mills

#7 MALIBU PRO: Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections and looms large in the Sunday finale. He’s been running up against much, much better horses, and anything close to his prior efforts this year will make him a formidable foe; #5 SHADOW RIDER: Is one of two Rudy Rodriguez trainees in here and may be the bigger price. Like my top pick, he’s dropping way down the class ladder, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #8 MILLS: May be peaking as a 10-year-old (yes, a 10-year-old), as he’s won three of his last four starts. He beat several of these rivals last time out, and he’s hit the board in three of four starts at the Spa.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/18/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Cheap plug time: At the start of the whole COVID-19 thing, I started the “Champagne and J.D.” YouTube show with my friend J.D. Fox. We’ve put together four months of shows with a great lineup of guests, and we’re proud of what we’ve built.

To check out this week’s show featuring TimeformUS figure guru and longtime friend Craig Milkowski, as well as analysis of today’s late Pick Four sequence, head to my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne) or search for “Champagne and J.D.” on YouTube. Our goal is to put together content horseplayers of all types will enjoy during what’s been a stressful time for everybody. I think we’ve done that, and I hope you give it a listen. If you like what we’re doing, hit the “subscribe” button so you don’t miss any of our weekly uploads.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Pick Five play was rendered null and void by the surface switch in the finale. Remember: Wagers given in this space assume turf races are run on that surface.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Once again, I have a reasonably-priced Pick Five ticket, so I have to take a swing at it even though I usually don’t play those tickets. This time, I’ll go after the early sequence. My 50-cent ticket starting in the opener reads as follows: 3,5,6 with 1 with 7 with 2,5,6 with ALL. I’m banking on getting two prices home in the final two races of the sequence, which we’ll need to provide value if my two short-priced singles are the goods.

TOTAL WAGERED: $31.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Yaupon, Race 7
Longshot: Me ’n Sap, Race 11

R1

Mo Mischief
Holland
Repo Rocks

#3 MO MISCHIEF: Fetched $500,000 earlier this year and has every right to be a good one. He’s by top sire Into Mischief, hails from the barn of Todd Pletcher, and boasts a series of strong gate drills ahead of his unveiling in the Saturday lid-lifter; #5 HOLLAND: Didn’t do much running first time out at Churchill, but he didn’t have a great start and perhaps he needed a race. Improvement is logical at second asking for strong connections; #6 REPO ROCKS: Has been working very quickly for Bill Mott, who isn’t known for having horses fully-cranked first time out. History says he might need a race, but if the early money is in, watch out.

R2

Mr. Kringle
Zipalong
Battalion

#1 MR. KRINGLE: Has been running against far better competition and looms large in this spot, assuming it stays on turf. He was last seen chasing multiple stakes-winner Decorated Invader in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge, and anything close to his third-place effort that day will make him tough; #7 ZIPALONG: Took to turf routing like a duck to water with an easy score downstate against maiden claimers. This is a much tougher spot, but it’s entirely possible he’s doing what he’s wanted all along; #4 BATTALION: Beat maiden claimers last time out at Gulfstream and figures to be prominent early. John Velazquez hops aboard and could have him in a strong position going into the far turn.

R3

Money Moves (MTO)
Decorated Invader
Gufo

#7 DECORATED INVADER: Is a logical favorite off of four wins in his last five starts. He strolled home in the Pennine Ridge, and he’ll likely be a similarly-short price here against what looks like an overmatched group; #5 GUFO: Gets a class test after four wins in a row, including one in the Grade 3 Kent at Delaware Park. Beyer-wise, he’s not far behind his stablemate, and the Clement barn certainly holds a powerful hand here; #6 EVER DANGEROUS: Might be a pace play in here given the likely race shape. There isn’t much gate speed signed on, and this one could inherit the early lead by default at a price.

R4

Lady by Choice
Jump for Joy
Archumybaby

#2 LADY BY CHOICE: Goes second off the layoff and first off the claim for Mike Maker here and hasn’t run a poor race in more than a year. Her tactical speed is a plus, and in a spot where I think the likely favorite is very beatable, she could present real value; #6 JUMP FOR JOY: Hasn’t won since this meet last year, but she likes Saratoga and goes second off the layoff after just missing in a similar spot downstate. Jose Ortiz rides back, and it’s not hard to see her taking a step forward; #5 ARCHUMYBABY: Is a fun horse to root for, having won 13 of 40 lifetime starts and banking more than $460,000 the hard way. She beat several of these runners last time out and has proven tough to beat in stretch battles.

R5

Vicarage (MTO)
Conglomerate
Summer Tune

#4 CONGLOMERATE: Is bred to be a good horse and makes his debut for Chad Brown. He’s by top turf sire Lemon Drop Kid and out of a stakes-winning mare with a strong pedigree and several classy full siblings, so it won’t be surprising if he’s ready right off the rip; #3 SUMMER TUNE: Has run well in a pair of prior starts and was third in his first time going long at Monmouth. The barn has been cold this year, but it does seem like this one’s headed in the right direction; #10 RED FLAG ALERT: Showed speed in his debut downstate over a yielding turf course. That early zip could prove useful on the inner turf, and Franco riding back for George Weaver is a solid sign.

R6

Rip It
Girl Dad
Catman

#1 RIP IT: Has one of the best pedigrees on the grounds. He’s by Tapit and out of Grade 2 winner Riposte, a half to Grade 1 winner Powerscourt. Riposte’s dam is also the second dam of the legendary Frankel, so if this one can’t run, it’s not due to a lack of bloodlines; #9 GIRL DAD: Raced greenly in his debut at Belmont but showed interest late and made up ground. I think he could step forward at second asking, though two turns is certainly a question mark; #5 CATMAN: Makes his debut and is another with a strong pedigree. He’s inbred to the dam of sire Kitten’s Joy, and his female family has lots of class. His dam is a half to multiple Grade 1 winner Exotic Wood, who threw stakes-winning turfer Key to Power.

R7

Yaupon
Cucina
The Sicarii

#1 YAUPON: Won his debut last month at Churchill, and that proved to be a salty race. Third-place finisher Savvy came right back to graduate at Keeneland, and this one doesn’t seem to have landed in a particularly strong race for the level; #5 CUCINA: Had a very wide trip last time out on turf at Belmont and comes back to dirt for Bill Mott. He was fourth in last year’s Grade 3 Sanford and tried Grade 1 company at Woodbine after that, so there’s some back class here; #6 THE SICARII: Has done his best work here at Saratoga and would benefit from a pace meltdown. He hasn’t run since March, but the recent strong drill at Belmont is encouraging and he’ll likely be a big price.

R8

Creative Style
Hoffenheim
Musical Heart

#3 CREATIVE STYLE: Is my top pick in a befuddling race solely because I have to have one. He’s won two of his last three starts, though, and he’ll be the one to beat if he can stretch his talent around two turns; #1 HOFFENHEIM: Hasn’t won in two years, but has run in some pretty tough spots. His race last time out was off a bit of a freshening, so it’s not hard to see some improvement coming here at a bit of a price; #6 MUSICAL HEART: Comes back to dirt after a failed try on turf against higher-level claimers. He cruised in an off-the-turf race at Gulfstream, and a repeat might be enough in a race where I have zero conviction (if you’re playing the late Pick Four, the “ALL” button might be your friend).

R9

Set Piece
Noble Indy
Digital Age

#6 SET PIECE: Ran in several big spots overseas a year ago (including the Group 1 2,000 Guineas) and flashed lots of talent in his U.S. debut. He inhaled a classy field at Churchill and should get a more solid pace to run at second off the bench; #4 NOBLE INDY: Has proven dangerous at this level and distance on turf, with two wins over similar foes in the past year. He’ll be part of the pace, for sure, and this is a much softer spot than the stakes race he exits where he simply went too long; #7 DIGITAL AGE: Disappointed when second at 6/5 in his comeback race, one he had every right to win if he was good enough. That wasn’t the first time he failed to pass horses late, and that’s concerning, but the Chad Brown trainee has back class and was a good second in a $1 million race here a season ago.

R10

Paris Lights
Altaf
Antoinette

#6 PARIS LIGHTS: Has blossomed since shifting to two-turn routes with a pair of impressive wins at Churchill. The recent bullet drill hints that she’s still in good form, and I think she’ll be in great shape with a stalking trip behind horses that may not want to go this far; #3 ALTAF: Seems like this race’s lone stone closer. She does take a class jump out of the maiden ranks after a score in Kentucky, but it’s not like this came up as a strong Grade 1, and the race could set up for her; #2 ANTOINETTE: Is a classy sort that runs well on dirt and turf. She’s won one stakes race, finished third in three others, and may provide some value as the “other” Bill Mott trainee.

R11

Top of the Mint
Quick Return
Me ’n Sap

#10 TOP OF THE MINT: Goes second off the layoff for Mark Hennig, who has strong numbers with similar stock. He came running late to be beaten only a length in his first start in more than 10 months, and logical improvement would make him formidable; #3 QUICK RETURN: Was second in his debut, which came against a short field downstate. However, the 61 Beyer Speed Figure he earned stacks up well against this group, and Carmouche sees fit to ride back; #6 ME ‘N SAP: Boasts an improving workout pattern for a sneaky barn that can pop at a price with first-time starters. There are no monsters here, and if he runs to the most recent work, he could stand a chance at blowing up the tote board.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/17/20)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $980

Handicappers in the Saratoga media may work for different publications and outlets, but we’re the same breed and many of us are friends. Every year brings with it attrition in the ranks due to retirements or budget cuts, and it’s always tough to see someone go, for whatever reason.

Bill Heller was the longtime handicapper at The Daily Gazette. He’s written several books on Saratoga, and he always treated me with respect in my limited dealings with him. I found out Wednesday that he had retired, and I was sad to hear it.

Bill and others like him are a link back to when being the leading handicapper across all media at Saratoga was a special, special thing to everyone involved (to me, it still is). I hope Bill enjoys his retirement, and I hope the handicappers that are left do right by him and how he approached his duties to his craft and his readers.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: On a mess of an opening day card, I made a mess in both the pick box and the bankroll section. Candy Tycoon never had a chance after stumbling badly out of the gate, so I dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I usually don’t play Pick Fives, but the late one can be attacked with an economically-friendly ticket, so I’ll fire away. My 50-cent wager starting in the sixth goes as follows: 2,8 with 2,3 with 3,6 with 5 with 1,3,5,6,10,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Indian Pride, Race 9
Longshot: Justintimeforwine, Race 5

R1

Prioritize (MTO)
Value Engineering
Bundibunan

#6 VALUE ENGINEERING: Hasn’t run a bad race to this point and came back running off the bench when victorious downstate. The added furlong is a bit of an unknown, but the pedigree hints this shouldn’t be a problem, and a repeat of his last-out effort would make him tough; #5 BUNDIBUNAN: Ran well going long on turf late last year, including a fourth-place finish in a rich stakes race at Kentucky Downs. He may need a livelier pace up front to be at his best, though, as he wants to sit back and make one run; #2 CAN’THELPBELIEVING: Hasn’t run in more than a year and hasn’t won since the 2017 Sky Classic at Woodbine, but has been working well for Graham Motion and may inherit the early lead by default. This isn’t an easy task first off a long layoff, but he could lead them a long way and come away with a piece of it.

R2

Dawn’s Early Light
Brunate
Imperio D

#1 DAWN’S EARLY LIGHT: Looms large in a race without much proven form signed on. His race off the bench downstate was fine, and he’s been working well since shipping up here after that performance; #10 BRUNATE: Settled for second against similar at Belmont after a less-than-ideal start. He’s shown improvement since coming back to the races earlier this summer, and the recent bullet drill looks pretty good; #11 IMPERIO D: Is the bigger price of the two Rudy Rodriguez trainees and was third in the race my second selection exits. He was fourth behind a next-out winner here in his debut last year, and he does have some tactical speed.

R3

The Rock Says
Ghost Game
First Rate

#4 THE ROCK SAYS: Will be asked to know his role in his first start for new trainer Robertino Diodoro, who does excellent work with horses first off the claim. He’s burned a lot of money, but the stretch-out to two turns could help him lay the smack down on this group (if you had “day two” in the “first wrestling reference” pool, you win); #5 GHOST GAME: Has stepped forward in each of his four starts and is protected first off the claim, which I see as a sign of confidence. He’s bred to love two turns and could come running late at a price; #3 FIRST RATE: Ran well in his first start away from Jorge Navarro last month at Gulfstream. He tries two turns on dirt for the first time, but his running style and pedigree says that shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

R4

Persian Queen
Leaveuwithasmile
Pick Up the Fone

#3 PERSIAN QUEEN: Goes back to the barn of Carlos Martin after trying tougher in two races at Churchill. The most recent effort was fine, and the first-out win here last summer indicates that she’ll have no problem with the surface; #2 LEAVEUWITHASMILE: Takes a big drop in class second off the bench for a capable outfit. She got pretty good last fall, winning three of four at Laurel, and she’ll get plenty of support at the window; #4 PICK UP THE FONE: Moved forward for Todd Pletcher last time out when wiring a weaker field at Gulfstream. She figures to be on or near the lead, and when this barn gets a horse on the right track, they tend to stay there.

R5

Too Early (MTO)
Justintimeforwine
Sandro the Great

#8 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE: Has had a lot of chances, but sure looks like the only speed in an otherwise paceless race. Kendrick Carmouche is a talented speed rider, and I think he could go slow early and have plenty left late at a big price; #10 SANDRO THE GREAT: Is bred up and down to go long and turf and didn’t run badly when fifth off the layoff. Going 10 furlongs off the bench isn’t easy, and improvement is certainly logical; #7 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Had every chance last time out when closing into a very fast pace. That he didn’t get up is a red flag, but there’s plenty of pedigree to suggest he’ll go two turns. His dam was stakes-placed going long on the grass, and Jonathan Thomas can win with stretch-outs.

R6

Big Thicket
Coach Villa
Vintage Hollywood

#8 BIG THICKET: Chased a classy runner earlier this month and is wheeled back quickly by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s run well on short rest before and seems to catch a less-imposing group here; #2 COACH VILLA: Likely needed his last-out effort, when he never fired in his first start since February. His form over the winter at Aqueduct, however, was solid, and his late-running style could be a benefit if they go quickly early on; #7 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD: Hasn’t won since coming east last fall, but has run well against open claimers in the past. He could relish the slight cutback in distance for a smaller barn that must be respected.

R7

Noor Sahara
Passing Out
Blowout

#2 NOOR SAHARA: Is one of four entrants for trainer Chad Brown in this year’s De La Rose and looks like the most imposing runner. Her prior connections saw enough in her to try the Group 1 Prix de Diane Longines, one of the most prestigious races for turf distaffers in Europe, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #3 PASSING OUT: Chased next-out Jenny Wiley winner Rushing Fall in the Grade 3 Beaugay downstate and got some black type with a third-place finish. She’s done her best work going two turns, and I think she’ll relish a return to that sort of route; #9 BLOWOUT: Seems like the main speed and is another part of the Chad Brown contingent. She’s been off since October but has back class and could be tough to catch if she’s left alone and ready to run.

R8

Lady Lawyer
Turf War
Lady Worthington

#3 LADY LAWYER: Wouldn’t have been too out of place in the De La Rose and looms large for the tag team of Chad Brown and Joel Rosario. Her U.S. debut last month was solid, and she should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the speed; #6 TURF WAR: Won a listed stakes last year at Belmont, but hasn’t been seen since October. She has a powerful late kick and may be the one they have to hold off late if she’s fully-cranked; #5 LADY WORTHINGTON: Sure looks like the main speed, and Wesley Ward’s track record with speedy turf sprinters is unimpeachable. She hasn’t run since February, but she’s run well fresh in the past and could be ready at a price.

R9

Indian Pride
Risky Mandate
Joy Epifora

#5 INDIAN PRIDE: Cruised home in her 2020 debut last month at Belmont and showed real potential before going to the sidelines last year. She broke her maiden here at first asking last summer by eight lengths, and her usual race would make her a formidable favorite; #2 RISKY MANDATE: May have been best in her return race at Churchill and is another that hasn’t done much wrong. She was third in last year’s Grade 2 Prioress here last summer, and she’s got a win at today’s seven-furlong distance as well; #6 JOY EPIFORA: Wasn’t disgraced in her U.S. debut, when she ran second going a mile in Kentucky. She ran in some of Argentina’s biggest races a year ago and won two Group 1 events, and she’s been flying in several recent works at Keeneland.

R10

Cold Hard Cash (MTO)
K. K. Ichikawa
Frozen Account

#1 K. K. ICHIKAWA: Gets my reluctant top pick in a tough finale. His debut wasn’t bad, and he’s eligible to move forward with a start under his belt and the addition of Lasix; #10 FROZEN ACCOUNT: Merits a look in his first start on the grass given his pedigree. He’s by Central Banker and out of a Malibu Moon mare, which means he has every right to improve with the change in surface; #5 DIANNESIMPAZIBLE: Likely needed his 2020 debut off of a six-month layoff, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez’s horses tend to improve second off of long layoffs. With his route-heavy pedigree, two turns shouldn’t be an issue.