BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,926.75

Saturday is Travers Day at Saratoga. I usually reserve this space for some sort of important message, and this year is no different.

I want to extend shoutouts to everyone who participated in Friday’s dunk tank festivities to benefit the Backstretch Employee Service Team. That organization does outstanding work to benefit employees who constitute the backbone of the horse racing industry. BEST offers healthcare clinics, as well as counseling, translation, and transportation services for those who need them, and seeing so many people support yesterday’s fundraiser was really, really cool.

To learn more, visit their website at bestbackstretch.org. If you have a good Travers Day and you’re looking for a way to give back, a donation would certainly check that box.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Brees lost all chance at the start of the third, and I dropped $40.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Most of my action comes in the 12th, the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens. I respect #8 BOOK’EM DANNO, but #5 PRINCE OF MONACO is a big lean for me. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I’ll single him to end $5 doubles that start with #4 BABY YODA and #8 CAGLIOSTRO in the 11th (the Grade 1 Forego). In addition, I’ll have $10 win bets on Baby Yoda and fifth-race top pick #9 TWENTY SIX BLACK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $60.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Prince of Monaco, Race 12
Longshot: Baby Yoda, Race 11

R1

Geopolitics
Calling an Audible
Steal the Rhythm

#8 GEOPOLITICS (4/5): Is truly in a now-or-never situation in the Saturday opener, where she’ll almost certainly be a heavy favorite for the sixth time in as many starts. The addition of blinkers, however, has been known to move “pack animals” forward, and that combined with a cushy outside draw against a soft group means I think she’s tough to go against; #1 CALLING AN AUDIBLE (5-1): Has been off four months but has been running well at this level for quite a while. The rider change to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a big one, and she’s the only one in here that’s shown she can pass others late; #4 STEAL THE RHYTHM (10-1): Debuts for H. James Bond, whose first-time starters usually need a race. However, there are some solid works on her tab, and it’s not like she’d need to be a superhorse to grab a check in her unveiling.

R2

Spirit Prince
Green Light
Main Beach

#4 SPIRIT PRINCE (9/2): Has yet to run a bad race through seven lifetime starts and was last seen running a close-up third in the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park. That was going significantly longer than this event, and the cutback in distance should suit this stalking-type (who goes out for connections that have already won several races this week); #5 GREEN LIGHT (2-1): Drops out of stakes company after two minor awards in ungraded races in Kentucky. His three-back effort was smashing, and while I don’t think he beat much that day over a quirky turf course, the renewed application of Lasix should certainly move him forward; #6 MAIN BEACH (8-1): Came flying late last time out in his first try against winners and was beaten just a length by a solid horse in West Hollywood. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Chad Brown, and he may have some room to improve given his relative inexperience.

R3

Strapped (MTO)
Topic Changer
Front Man

#3 TOPIC CHANGER (7/2): Stretches back out to a three-turn distance third off the bench for Mike Maker, whose barn is on fire at the moment. He’s no stranger to going long thanks to several races over fences, and while others in this field may have distance limitations, the 11-furlong trip should pose no problem for this 5-year-old gelding; #5 FRONT MAN (5-1): Hasn’t won in more than a year, but he’s one I think will enjoy the longer journey. His pedigree is all-distance, and while he’s shown a solid turn of foot several times, he’s also shown an ability to be a grinding-type, too, which could help him; #1 LORD FLINTSHIRE (3-1): Is impossible to endorse on top, with just one win in 24 career outings. However, he’s proven to be a fun horse to own, with eight seconds and three thirds, and one of those seconds came going even longer than this route last June at Laurel.

R4

Can’t Hush This
Jace’s Road
Strava

#6 CAN’T HUSH THIS (5/2): Gets a tepid nod in a race out of the Wilson chute, largely due to a strong effort last time out. He was second at Ellis Park last time out, and while Ellis form doesn’t always travel, that track’s one-mile route is run in a similar style to Saratoga’s, and that might help him; #5 JACE’S ROAD (7/2): Makes his first start since the 2023 Kentucky Derby, where he was outclassed by the likes of Mage and Two Phil’s. The long layoff is obviously a concern, but Brad Cox does well with horses coming back off of extended breaks, and first-time Lasix is a big equipment change; #1 STRAVA (6-1): Ran too poorly to be true on the Kentucky Derby undercard and gets Lasix in his return to the optional claiming ranks. The rail draw may not be ideal, but three of his five wins are at this distance and he does have some tactical speed.

R5

Excellent Timing (MTO)
Twenty Six Black
Mischievous Angel

#9 TWENTY SIX BLACK (8-1): Has run well at this route multiple times and comes in off of a sharp, last-to-first score against first-level allowance foes. This may be a tougher group, but he was a close-up second behind Mansa Musa two back, and that one returned to run second in the Grade 3 Quick Call; #7 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL (9/2): Has two wins and a second in three turf sprints to date and was most recently third in a stakes-caliber optional claimer during Belmont week. This barn hasn’t gotten going at this stand, but Flavien Prat rides back when he likely had several options, and I think this one’s a contender; LIVE OAK ENTRY (7/5): Neither #1 BIZ BIZ BUZZ or #1A BRING THEBAND HOME would be stunning, but the morning line prices are definitely underlays. The former hasn’t won in more than a year, the latter has two turf races over a vastly different turf course than this one, and at this entry’s likely price, I’m going elsewhere and searching for value.

R6

Hands of Time
Thunder Roll
States’ Rights

#4 HANDS OF TIME (5/2): Ran well in his debut, when he made up some ground despite a wide trip. He’s worked consistently since then, and I’m expecting an improved performance at second asking for patient connections; #8 THUNDER ROLL (6-1): Showed some speed in his debut going shorter on dirt, but going long on turf is what his pedigree says he wants. He gets wheeled back pretty quickly after his first outing, which is atypical of this outfit, but it sure seems like a vote of confidence given the route that’s involved; #12 STATES’ RIGHTS (3-1): Needs some luck to run here but merits a long look if he does. He closed into a very slow pace last time out and was beaten just a head. If he runs here, he should get more pace to run at, and he’d be a major player despite a less-than-ideal draw.

R7

Tip Top Thomas
C K Wonder
Rookie Card

#3 TIP TOP THOMAS (3-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher, who’s enlisted Irad Ortiz, Jr., to ride. He comes in off of back-to-back bullet drills and is bred to be a good one. This son of Violence sold for $160,000 last October and is kin to six winners, including multiple stakes winner Gray Attempt; #8 C K WONDER (4-1): Dueled through solid fractions in his debut and faded to fourth. That was over a muddy, sealed track he may not have cared for, though, and the experience edge he has over most of this group could be a big factor; #2 ROOKIE CARD (9/2): Sold for $165,000 at the OBS sale this year, a big number considering sire Adios Charlie’s $3,000 stud fee. He comes in off of a series of excellent workouts, though trainer Danny Gargan’s barn has been ice-cold all summer long to this point.

R8

Bob John Ray (MTO)
Rhetorical
Clear Conscience

#5 RHETORICAL (2-1): Debuted with a bang last month, when he overcame a tough outside post and won as much the best. It’s hard to debut going two turns, but he did it with aplomb and may be a special horse on the rise in this first-level allowance; #4 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (5-1): Gets a big trainer change to Mark Casse after back-to-back seconds at this level. He’s beaten several of today’s opponents in those races, and in addition to the trainer change, a jockey switch has also been made, to Jose Ortiz; #8 SLAPINTHEFACE (6-1): Came up less than a length short despite having to close into a pretty moderate pace last time out. It’s one of several tough breaks for this barn, which is winless at the meet as of this writing but has collected several minor awards.

R9

Measured Time
Silver Knott
Far Bridge

#2 MEASURED TIME (7/5): Cruised home to win the Grade 1 Manhattan in his first stateside start and looms large in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer. The added distance is a question mark, but his pedigree says he should be able to handle it, and if he does, he’s strictly the one to beat; #4 SILVER KNOTT (1-1): Steps up into the Grade 1 ranks after three wins against Grade 2 foes. Most recently, he went wire-to-wire in the Bowling Green last month, and he and jockey Flavien Prat figure to be prominent early; #3 FAR BRIDGE (8-1): Flopped as the favorite in the Grade 2 United Nations at Monmouth, but he had a wide draw that day and may have had an excuse. He won going a mile and a quarter last year, and he’s another horse with a pedigree that says more distance shouldn’t be an issue. 

R10

Scylla
Vahva
Accede

#5 SCYLLA (7/2): Cuts back to seven furlongs for the Grade 1 Ballerina, and I think this distance will fit her like a glove. She most recently ran second behind the classy Adare Manor in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar, which came after two graded stakes scores in Kentucky; #3 VAHVA (1-1): Has run exceptionally well this season in recording two stakes wins, including the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. If this race was at Churchill Downs, she’d be a strong lean, but while she could win this, she’s 0-for-2 at Saratoga to this point and her price will be very, very short; #7 ACCEDE (8-1): Won a Grade 2 two back and was a close-up second in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss behind a perfect-trip winner. She’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, which is a trip that could lead to a strong performance at a bit of a price.

R11

Baby Yoda
Cagliostro
Mullikin

#4 BABY YODA (8-1): Had a very wide trip in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, so I don’t have an issue tossing that race. Tyler Gaffalione is now aboard, and while 3-1 was a bit tough to swallow last time, he’ll be a much bigger price in the Grade 1 Forego, and I think he’s far more likely to repeat his two-back effort here than he was last time out; #8 CAGLIOSTRO (9/2): Cut back to one turn last time out and won the Hanshin at Churchill Downs. The outside draw is definitely a plus, and despite a sheet full of two-turn routes, I think it’s possible he’s been a one-turn horse all along; #6 MULLIKIN (8/5): Has reeled off three wins in a row, including one in the Grade 2 John Nerud downstate. That race was a fast one, but Aqueduct’s main track played very, very fast late in its meet. He could win, but I don’t think he towers over this bunch, and the likely price hits me as an underlay.

R12

Prince of Monaco
Book’em Danno
Little Ni

#5 PRINCE OF MONACO (4-1): Was a hard-luck second last time out in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, where he was left with a lot to do and came up a half-length short. Since then, he’s been working, well, like a Bob Baffert trainee, and while the field for the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens is a very good one, I think a clean trip will make this one the one to beat; #8 BOOK’EM DANNO (7/2): Has never been worse than second in eight lifetime starts and is 6-for-6 going seven furlongs or shorter. One of those wins came in the Woody Stephens, where he got the jump on my top pick. The jockey change is a bit puzzling, but it’s not like Javier Castellano is an insane downgrade, either; #11 LITTLE NI (10-1): Makes his first start for Mark Casse after giving my second choice all he could handle in a prep at Monmouth Park. The outside draw is a very big plus, Jose Ortiz winds up in the irons, and we’re likely to get a square price given the big field and some of the heavy hitters that are set to go postward.

R13

Sierra Leone
Dornoch
Fierceness

#2 SIERRA LEONE (7/2): Has made his own trouble multiple times, but he’s a closer in a renewal of the Grade 1 Travers that seems full of early speed. The stretchout to 10 furlongs seems like exactly what he wants, and while he’s far from an easy horse to ride, I think we’ll get a very bettable price on a runner getting exactly what he wants, and that makes him my top pick; #7 DORNOCH (5/2): Has shown an immense amount of fight in two Grade 1 wins. He looked beaten in both the Belmont and the Haskell, but he fended off Mindframe both times. He may need to tap into that resolve again here, as he’ll be tested from the jump by several frontrunners; #8 FIERCENESS (3-1): Is among the top horses in training on his best day, and we’ve seen several dazzling wins in high-level races. Most recently, he topped Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. However, he’s yet to string two “A races” together, and the way he came up empty in the Kentucky Derby makes me wonder if he wants this distance. Still, we know he loves Saratoga, and the outside draw certainly doesn’t hurt him.

R14

Treaty Obligation
Six Kings
Houlton

#8 TREATY OBLIGATION (7/2): Drops in for a tag in the Saturday finale, and I’m willing to forgive the last-out effort. Do that, and you’re left with a runner that’s been competitive against much, much better horses. Flavien Prat rides for Chad Brown, and while the post isn’t ideal, his best race crushes these; #6 SIX KINGS (10-1): Exits a failed turf experiment and comes back to dirt in his second start for Joe Sharp. He showed some tactical speed two and three back, and I’m expecting Tyler Gaffalione to be aggressive out of the gate; #4 HOULTON (6-1): Had to deal with a sloppy, sealed track last time out, and for the second time in his career, he didn’t handle such a surface very well. He ran well when second at this route last August, and he’s another that should be on or near the lead early.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,966.75

If you’re a believer in betting on the best story, you’ll get a chance to put your money on one right away Friday. The opener is a 2-year-old race, and the very first horse in the program is Alyeska. She’s owned by Marylou Whitney Stables, who also bred this daughter of Vekoma, and she runs just a few days after the sudden, unexpected passing of Marylou’s husband, John Hendrickson.

Given some strong recent works and a top-class pedigree, I think Alyeska is live, and I’ve picked her second in the pick box. It wouldn’t be surprising if she takes plenty of sentimental money, and if she wins, that instantly becomes one of the best feel-good stories of the meet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: A decision made by the stewards went my way, though I feel terrible for those who had Camera in yesterday’s seventh because she was almost certainly the best horse. Having said that, Headline Numbers got put up, and $31 in post-scratch bets returned $130.75 ($63 from the first double, $29 from the second double, and $38.75 from a Pick Three).

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Lone speed is very dangerous in turf marathons, and for that reason, I need to bet #6 BREES in the third. In addition to a $22 win bet, I’ll have $6 exactas using him on top of #1 BE LIKE CLINT and #8 HARRY HOOD and $3 “saver” exactas with those two on top of Brees.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Transactional, Race 8
Longshot: Rodriguez entry, Race 11

R1

Stunner
Alyeska
Ice Cream Boat

#8 STUNNER (5/2): Has been working up a storm ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post in the Friday opener. She fetched $190,000 at auction last year, and it sure seems like trainer Brad Cox has a good one on his hands here; #1 ALYESKA (9/2): Comes in off of a pair of very impressive four-furlong drills, and while she’s bred to possibly want a bit longer than this distance, she’s flashed plenty of potential. Given the Marylou Whitney silks and the recent passing of John Hendrickson, if this one wins, there won’t be many dry eyes in the house; #4 ICE CREAM BOAT (9/2): Is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Chocolate Gelato and has been working steadily for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. I’m not crazy about Pletcher running two in here, but this one’s bred to be precocious and may be well-meant.

R2

Just Music
Punch the Clock
Enigmatic

#3 JUST MUSIC (5/2): Ran well to be second going two turns last time out and cuts back to the Wilson chute here. She was third in a surprisingly-strong off-the-turf race at this route two back, and she’s part of a strong one-two punch for trainer Linda Rice; #5 PUNCH THE CLOCK (8-1): Wired the field in her debut two back before trying turf last time. She’s got plenty of early speed, which is dangerous at this route, and Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride back; #7 ENIGMATIC (7/2): Is another cutting back for the Rice barn, but this one hits me as an underlay. She sat a dream trip up top setting slow fractions last time and was a distant third, five lengths behind my top pick. Maybe the cutback helps, but she shouldn’t be alone up front here.

R3

Paddington (MTO)
Brees
Be Like Clint

#6 BREES (4-1): Sure looks like the main early speed in this three-turn turf marathon, and that’s a very, very good place to be. He ran well to be second at this distance downstate, and Jose Lezcano sees fit to ride back here; #1 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Was a close-up third at this route last month and isn’t an awful favorite. I do, however, think he’s a tad better on all-weather, and I’m not sure he’ll get quite as much pace to run at. Add in that closers on the rail need a fair bit to go right, and I think he may be vulnerable; #8 HARRY HOOD (9/2): Has plenty of back class and missed by just a nose in this year’s Grade 2 Pan American at Gulfstream. His last few have been a bit disappointing, though, and I’m wondering if he prefers firmer footing than he’s likely to get here.

R4

Castle Chaos
Rocket Can
Power Seeker

#3 CASTLE CHAOS (3-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but ran well to be fourth in the Grade 1 Met Mile at this route two back and returns to it after a rough trip last time out. He’s got enough speed to sit close early and pounce, and while this isn’t a bad field, he’s been running against much better most of the past year; #1 ROCKET CAN (5/2): Was ninth in last year’s Kentucky Derby and exits a stakes-quality optional claimer last month. He’s definitely good enough to win, but the post position is a question mark since he’s not exactly a “speed” horse; #4 POWER SEEKER (4-1): Wired a field of optional claimers earlier this month and figures to be prominent early. I doubt he’ll sit such a perfect trip for the second start in a row, but he draws well and may be tough to run down if he gets comfortable.

R5

Roses for Debra
Dontlookbackatall
Future Is Now

#4 ROSES FOR DEBRA (6/5): Was probably ridden a bit too overconfidently in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, where she missed by a head as an odds-on favorite. She comes back in the Smart N Fancy as half of a very strong 1-2 punch for trainer Christophe Clement, and this is the one Irad Ortiz, Jr., chose to ride; #1 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (4-1): Doesn’t have a single bad race on her sheet and comes in on a three-race win streak. One of those victories was a score in the Grade 3 Caress, and she’s a major player (especially if her highly-regarded stablemate misfires); #7 FUTURE IS NOW (3-1): Upset my top pick in the Intercontinental and did all the dirty work in the Caress before settling for third. She’s got plenty of early speed and once again figures to be the one they’ll have to catch.

R6

Going for Glory
Inflammabelle
Focus Pocus

#6 GOING FOR GLORY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a mess of a maiden claimer solely because she’s the only horse that’s shown any interest in passing others late. She was second in a similar spot earlier this month and may have plenty of, to steal a phrase from a friend, “inexpensive velocity” in front of her; #2 INFLAMMABELLE (6-1): Didn’t break well in a turf experiment last time out and returns to the dirt here. Her two-back effort wasn’t bad, and I think she’s got more gate speed than her rivals, including one that hits me as a vulnerable favorite; #5 FOCUS POCUS (9/5): Drops in for a tag, but while she has excuses for her most recent effort, the two races before that saw her sit perfect trips and be reeled in. Perhaps the drop wakes her up, but this drop within the state-bred ranks isn’t as big as it is against open company, and I think she’ll be overbet.

R7

Yellow (MTO)
Rare Art
Leaner and Meaner

#8 RARE ART (3-1): Showed plenty in her debut, when she rallied from way back to finish third at a price. This barn has had a bunch of seconds and thirds at this stand, but improvement is logical here at second asking and she presents a great chance for the outfit to get off the duck; #10 LEANER AND MEANER (7/2): Debuts for Chad Brown and merits respect despite a less-than-ideal post position. This daughter of Munnings has a very strong female family, with a dam being a full to stakes winner Thrilled and a half to Grade 3-placed turfer Beside Herself; #4 WILD AND FREE (10-1): Is one of two Todd Pletcher trainees and has a right to improve after a wide trip in her debut. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back, and she draws a more friendly post that could give her more of a shot.

R8

Transactional
Brigade Commander
Barnstorming

#12 TRANSACTIONAL (2-1): Takes a big drop into a restricted claimer for powerhouse connections and looms large as the one to beat. He likely needed his last-out clunker, which was his first try since late-2022, and I’m expecting a step forward against much weaker opposition than what he ran against last month; #3 BRIGADE COMMANDER (6-1): Is another dropping in class, and he’s going back to the turf for the first time since January. His 2023 races on the grass were solid, and he’s got plenty of tactical speed, which should help him; #7 BARNSTORMING (15-1): Crossed the wire first at a big price last time out, but was disqualified for interference near the wire. His form looks much better if you solely consider his turf races, though, so it’s not like the big effort was a total shock. A similar sort of effort gives him a big chance at a piece of this, and he may be a longshot once again.

R9

Forrest City
Edified
Classify

#3 FORREST CITY (6-1): Is one of several exiting a common race on July 27th, but unlike a few others, he had an excuse. That was his first try since November, and I’m banking on this Bill Mott trainee taking a step forward second off the bench in this wide-open sprint; #8 EDIFIED (5-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown an ability to close, and that should help him. He made up quite a bit of ground to be third last time out, and he’ll go third off the bench for Steve Asmussen here; #5 CLASSIFY (6-1): Ships up from Florida for Saffie Joseph, Jr., who’s enjoyed a lot of success at this stand. A mile was probably just a bit too far for him last time, and he’s been working well at Palm Meadows ahead of his trip to upstate New York.

R10

Idiomatic
Randomized
Raging Sea

#4 IDIOMATIC (6/5): Is a head away from winning eight in a row, and the defending champion of her division again looks imposing in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. She’s gotten a few weird trips of late, but she’s been working up a storm across the street and is the one to beat if she fires her best shot; #5 RANDOMIZED (8/5): Upset my top pick in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, although it’s fair to say she sat a dream trip on the lead through moderate fractions. I’m expecting my top pick to show some more interest and keep her honest, but if that one takes back, it’s not inconceivable to think this one proves tough to pass; #3 RAGING SEA (9/2): Has won four of her last five and exits a score in the Grade 2 Shuvee that was pretty impressive. This is a tougher field, no doubt, but she’s won three graded stakes in the past nine months and may be coming into career-best form.

R11

Rodriguez entry
Turriga
Delightful Dixie

RODRIGUEZ ENTRY (12-1): Both parts provide value in the right circumstances. If this stays on turf, #1 QUICK POWER NAP has a right to improve after losing all chance at the gate last time out. The addition of Flavien Prat is a big plus in what hits me as a wide-open turf sprint; #9 TURRIGA (6-1): Is another that’s had some gate issues in her last few starts. She was fifth in what hit me as a stronger race for the level last time out, and a repeat of her two-back effort could give her a big shot here; #5 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (6-1): Won two in a row at Monmouth before a misfire up here last month. Here, she’s reunited with two-back winning rider Paco Lopez, and if she channels her Jersey form, I think she’s another that’s in with a chance (in a race where I’d advise multi-race exotics players to spread, spread, and spread some more).

R12

Strife
DeVaux entry
Silvology

#4 STRIFE (7/2): Was second behind a much-the-best winner here last time out and seems to run into a weaker group in the Friday finale. Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement, and any sort of step forward from what she’s shown to date in her three-start career would make her strictly the one to beat; DEVAUX ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #1 TIME STONE, who hasn’t run since March but seems to be training well ahead of her return. That last-out effort was a solid second at Tampa Bay Downs, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to fire; #12 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Draws an absolutely terrible post but has a pedigree I simply cannot ignore. This daughter of Blame has run on dirt twice, but her bottom-side breeding says it’s turf she wants, and she did show plenty when making up a lot of ground in her unveiling two starts ago.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,867

One of my adopted home tracks, Golden Gate Fields, closed its doors earlier this year. They’ve announced a sale of items on the property, which will happen at an online auction next month.

Looking through the 2,000-plus auction listings is a trip, and some of the items listed are incredibly random. For instance, they’re selling a case of DVD’s that had been located in the jockey’s room. Judging by the contents of the case, at some point, at least one rider on the circuit was a big, big fan of the two-season TV show “Joan of Arcadia.”

The auction begins on Tuesday, Sept. 10, and goes through Thursday, Sept. 12. If you want any sort of on-track memorabilia or collector’s items, this is a great place to find that stuff.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Runnin’ Ray didn’t offer much value after being bet down to 8/5, but he got the job done to salvage a slight profit in this space. In total, $40 in bets returned $55.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My best bet comes in the seventh, where I’ll try to extract some value out of #7 HEADLINE NUMBERS in multi-race exotics. She’s a single in $5 doubles starting in the sixth with #2 ANNIE GOODBODY, #7 BOSSY DISH, and #10 SOMEONE, as well as $5 doubles ending in the eighth with #1 DISCO BALL/#1A DURANTE, #4 LITTLE VIC, and #5 KAVOD. I’ll also play these horses in a $1 Pick Three, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $39.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Headline Numbers, Race 7
Longshot: Commerce Comet, Race 4

R1

With the Angels
Five G
Willful Mama

#8 WITH THE ANGELS (6-1): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open Thursday opener with a plethora of first-time starters. This daughter of Omaha Beach fetched $350,000 at the OBS sale in April, and her string of strong workouts jumps off the page; #7 FIVE G (6-1): Debuts for George Weaver and is another that has every right to be a runner. She’s by red-hot first crop sire Vekoma and flashed precociousness in a four-furlong gate drill on August 11th that was the fastest of nearly 200 works at the distance; #3 WILLFUL MAMA (10-1): Is out of one of the top broodmares in the state, one that’s already thrown graded stakes winner My Mane Squeeze and multiple stakes winner Rotknee. This barn’s young horses sometimes need a race to get going, but the works are solid and the price should be right.

R2

Hoosier Philly (MTO)
Beaute Cachee
Gina Romantica

#4 BEAUTE CACHEE (5/2): Looks like the lone speed in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa, and that could be a very, very dangerous trip. She’s gone wire-to-wire twice already this season, including in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, and the presence of Frankie Dettori is a plus; #5 GINA ROMANTICA (9/5): Was a close-up third in the Grade 1 Diana last time out behind a pair of very classy mares. I’m not sure she’s quite the same horse she was last fall, when she won the Grade 1 First Lady and was beaten just a length in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but she’s probably the one they have to hold off late; #2 COPPICE (5/2): Chased Chili Flag twice before a traffic-filled trip in the Diana. Still, she wasn’t beaten by a lot last time out, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here.

R3

Broughty Ferry (MTO)
Sy B
In Time

#3 SY B (2-1): Ran too poorly to be true in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and drops in to face first-level allowance foes here. Her two-back effort in the Grade 2 Wonder Again was quite good, and anything close to that makes this filly strictly the one to beat; #1 IN TIME (3-1): Hasn’t won since her overseas days but was a solid second in a similar spot last month. She’s got some early speed in a race light on that, and I’m expecting Dylan Davis to have her forwardly-placed out of the gate; #7 JUSTDENY (4-1): Graduated at this distance two starts ago before making a big middle move last time out. This barn has been cold at this stand, but she’s clearly shown an affinity for this three-turn trip, which could be a big help.

R4

Master of Arms
Commerce Comet
Saffa’s Day

#6 MASTER OF ARMS (9/5): Drops in for a tag after spending most of his campaign going against starter allowance foes. Most recently, he set the pace and tired to fourth going a bit longer. The cutback in distance and drop in class could both be enough to wake him up; #8 COMMERCE COMET (10-1): Is protected from being claimed in his first start since February, which is a move I absolutely love. He’s also got several back races that fit reasonably well in here, plus a work tab that hints he’s ready to go and may be live at a price; #5 SAFFA’S DAY (8-1): Gets wheeled back for his third start of the meet after running second in a similar spot less than two weeks ago. He was close to a solid pace that day and may not need to go quite as quickly early to sit his preferred trip.

R5

Fortune’s Nephew
Improbable Journey
Upside Potential

#4 FORTUNE’S NEPHEW (3-1): Gets a massive jockey switch to Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders on the circuit, and has shown speed against allowance and optional claiming foes in the past. His two and three-back efforts were both solid, and if he sits his preferred trip (unlike last time), I think he’s got a big shot; #2 IMPROBABLE JOURNEY (9/5): Makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker and will look to break a long losing streak here. The class drop is significant, and it’s not like his last race was bad, but the likely price is pretty tough to swallow, so I’ll try to beat him; #1 UPSIDE POTENTIAL (5-1): Hasn’t done anything wrong to this point, with two wins in as many starts. The drop into the claiming ranks is a bit odd, but he’s got plenty of early speed and may have more, dare I say it, upside potential than most of this bunch.

R6

Someone
Bossy Dish
Annie Goodbody

#10 SOMEONE (5-1): May have needed her debut, and her pedigree says this two-turn turf route is exactly what she wants. The bottom side of her pedigree is all-stamina and all-turf, and while the post isn’t ideal, the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., riding for a fairly small outfit is a big plus; #7 BOSSY DISH (3-1): Is another trying turf for the first time, and she’s bred to love it, too. Her dam was a champion in her native New Zealand and did plenty of damage on the lawn, and she’s shown speed in a pair of dirt starts to date; #2 ANNIE GOODBODY (8-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was against a much tougher group going shorter than her pedigree says she wants to run. This distance should be more to her liking, and I’m expecting a move forward at a bit of a price.

R7

Headline Numbers
Standout Sensation
Camera

#7 HEADLINE NUMBERS (8/5): Is my one single on a card with a bunch of competitive races. This filly’s debut was sensational, as she ran off the screen going a mile at Aqueduct. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be a problem, and she may not have to improve off of her unveiling to win this; #5 STANDOUTSENSATION (4-1): Was a non-starter last time out and hasn’t won in a while, but is a contender for a piece of it if she runs back to her two-back near-miss at Churchill. The two-back work was sharp, and Tom Amoss has enlisted Jose Ortiz to ride; #1 CAMERA (10-1): Exits an ultra-classy turf race that’s produced several next-out winners. She also chased a stakes-caliber filly two starts ago and has enough speed to take advantage of the inside draw. She seems like the one they’ll have to catch, and I think she hangs on for a slice at a price.

R8

Jacobson entry
Little Vic
Kavod

JACOBSON ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A DURANTE. While #1 DISCO BALL isn’t badly-meant, his stablemate is a Grade 3 winner who got a very strange ride last time out at Laurel. His desired trip would give him a big shot in an optional claimer that looks much more like an ungraded stakes race; #4 LITTLE VIC (6-1): Has chased stakes foes a bunch over the last few seasons, and his one recent start with Lasix was an easy score in March. He gets Lasix back here, and he’ll also get the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #5 KAVOD (5-1): Responded to a drop in class with a win last time out at Churchill. He was claimed out of that race by Joe Sharp, he sports a strong series of out-of-town drills, and he’s yet another alternative to #3 GULFPORT (8/5), who hits me as a vulnerable favorite.

R9

The Shoe Lady (MTO)
Can’t Fool Me
Overacting

#3 CAN’T FOOL ME (7/2): Was second in a race many runners in here exit, and she didn’t have it easy that day. She rated well behind a pretty slow pace, but still managed to salvage second behind a stakes-caliber winner that’s going on to tougher races; #4 OVERACTING (5/2): Sat a strange trip in that event and (not coincidentally, I think) gets a new rider in Flavien Prat here. Some of her 2023 turf efforts were very sharp, and I think she may sit a bit closer here given the likely race shape; #1 BERNT AGAIN (15-1): Almost certainly needed the last-out clunker, which was her first start in almost six months. She got pretty good last year, when she hit the board in a pair of stakes races, and this price seems like an overlay on a horse that can win if she channels that form.

R10

Precisely
Unhidden Gem
Arrasou

#2 PRECISELY (8-1): Comes off a very long layoff, but her one race to date was solid. She was third behind a pair of next-out winners that day, and the recent works indicate that trainer Wesley Ward has her fully-cranked for her first start since June of 2023; #1 UNHIDDEN GEM (6-1): Debuts for Al Stall and is bred up and down to be a precocious turf horse. This daughter of No Nay Never is out of a classy mare that’s thrown full sibling Mystery Power, a Group 2 winner overseas; #3 ARRASOU (7/2): Came back running with a third-place finish in a similar spot. That was her first try in more than 11 months, and this barn has a history of getting horses ready to go second off the layoff.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,852

If you’re a fan of racing at Saratoga, you owe plenty to the Whitney family. As prominent as they’ve been over the years, much of their best work has been behind the scenes, supporting backstretch workers and providing valuable resources to the backbone of the racing industry.

John Hendrickson, Marylou Whitney’s husband, passed away suddenly earlier this week. He was just 59 years old. In addition to his other contributions to the industry, he was the chairman of the board of the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, an organization where I proudly serve as an annual voter.

This industry has plenty of people who have probably sprained their shoulders patting themselves on the back. I should know, given that I’ve gotten a year-plus of clout out of picking Lord Miles in the Wood. On a serious note, though, John and Marylou gave back selflessly when they didn’t have to, and racing’s much, much better for it.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled when the Bolton Landing was moved off the turf.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I have two strong opinions pretty close to one another, and I’ll lean on them both. I’ll have $20 win tickets on #3 ICE ROAD in the fifth and #2 RUNNIN’ RAY in the seventh, and I’ll have a $2 Pick Three singling both that uses #1 BRYANT AND COOPER, #4 PLAYFUL LASS, #6 NATIONAL ARCHIVE, #8 MARVELOUS MADISON, and #9 LOOKIN TO ROCK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Runnin’ Ray, Race 7
Longshot: Street Rod, Race 8

R1

Vintage Vino
Protective
Brown entry

#5 VINTAGE VINO (7/2): Closed with a rush to be second beaten less than a length last time out in a race several rivals also exit. That race’s pace was far from fast, and he was one of only a few doing any real running late. If this stays on turf, I think he’s the one to beat; #4 PROTECTIVE (8/5): May have been entered here in the event this race comes off the turf. He ran in a few big spots earlier this season, but had no excuses when back against maidens last time out and is approaching “now or never” territory; BROWN ENTRY (5/2): Some may prefer #1 FACTOR ANALYSIS, but I like #1A TAKE YOUR SEATS more. He had no shot last time out given the glacially-slow pace in front of him. He gets both blinkers and Flavien Prat here, and I think he could move forward (although the likely price still hits me as a bit too short).

R2

Sacrosanct
Bold Fortune
Joker On Fire

#9 SACROSANCT (7/2): Debuts for Brad Cox after hammering for $260,000 at a 2-year-old sale this past spring. Thats a big number considering sire Honest Mischief’s modest $6,500 stud fee, and the steady stream of solid workouts indicates he’s ready to run; #7 BOLD FORTUNE (4-1): Makes his first start for George Weaver and is a full brother to Walk With Me, a first-out winner that added a stakes placing later in her campaign. He’s another with a few good works, and Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in the jockey’s room; #8 JOKER ON FIRE (5-1): Has an experience edge over most of this field and showed a bit of speed in his unveiling. He’s worked well twice since then and has every right to step forward at second asking.

R3

Kuchar (MTO)
Foreign Relations
Cathkin Peak

#3 FOREIGN RELATIONS (5/2): Sure looks like the lone early speed in the John’s Call, and given the way that usually works in turf marathons, that’s a very powerful asset. He’s got plenty of back class, having won last year’s Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill Downs, and I think he’s a legitimate wire-to-wire threat; #6 CATHKIN PEAK (2-1): Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out, and this barn has a record of turning around older horses whose careers have sputtered a bit. He has races from 2022 and 2023 that would absolutely make him a major player in here, provided he finds that form; #5 WINNING SPIRIT (12-1): May have needed his U.S. debut given the layoff of almost 10 months that preceded it. Form in Italy and Germany isn’t quite as impressive as races run elsewhere in Europe, but he’s shown he can go long on the turf and he’s certainly better than what he showed last time out.

R4

Jacobson entry
Accidental Hero
Roman Empire

JACOBSON ENTRY (2-1): I’m high on #1 SIX PERCENT, who clearly detested the Wilson chute last time out (many handicappers can relate). He comes back to a route where he thumped $32,000 claimers two back, and there sure seems to be plenty of speed signed on to set things up for his late kick; #5 ACCIDENTAL HERO (8/5): Didn’t have a great start last time out and was one-paced behind a winner that went early and never came back to the field. He adds blinkers and has enough early speed to sit close and get first run turning for home; #7 ROMAN EMPIRE (10-1): Ships up from Parx, which gives me some pause because Parx form doesn’t always travel to NYRA tracks. However, this is a sharp barn that doesn’t ship for the sake of shipping, and former Parx stalwart Kendrick Carmouche being in the irons is noteworthy.

R5

Ice Road
More Vino
Midnight Express

#3 ICE ROAD (6-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, and I usually hate betting horses like this unless I have a very good reason. That good reason, however, comes in the form of a switch to Luis Saez and a favorable draw coming out of the Wilson chute against what hits me as an underwhelming favorite; #5 MORE VINO (9/5): Will likely be a very heavy chalk, and it’s possible he steamrolls this group, but I’ve got some doubts. His two races to date aren’t THAT fast, he’s a 3-year-old going against older horses, and while these are aggressive connections, a $400,000 auction purchase running for a $16,000 tag in his third career start doesn’t exactly exude confidence at a very short price; #8 MIDNIGHT EXPRESS (8-1): Does not draw well in this event but is one of only a few horses that’s shown any interest in passing others late. His second last time out at this level was fine, and if there’s a pace meltdown, he’s the one who stands to benefit.

R6

Cha Cha Wren (MTO)
Playful Lass
Marvelous Madison

#4 PLAYFUL LASS (10-1): Made a big middle move in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf race last month, and I think she’ll be a factor here at a price. Her dam was stakes-placed going long on the turf, we know she’s got some dirt form, and Luis Saez rides back for Mike Maker; #8 MARVELOUS MADISON (4-1): Is one of two Chad Brown debutantes in here, and despite being a bigger price, this is the one I prefer. Her workouts are a bit quicker, and her stakes-placed dam has thrown five winners to date, including a few stakes runners; #1 BRYANT AND COOPER (3-1): Is the Brown runner that will likely attract attention. She’s a full sister to stakes winner Marvelous Maude and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, but the rail draw makes me a bit nervous and she hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire in the mornings.

R7

Runnin’ Ray
Complete Agenda
St Andrews

#2 RUNNIN’ RAY (7/2): Has clearly had his issues over the years given all the layoff lines, but his usual race would make him very tough in here. His effort two back at Churchill was very good, as he ran second behind a stakes-caliber winner. The class drop should help him, and the 7/2 morning line hits me as an overlay on a horse I’m singling in multi-race exotics; #8 COMPLETE AGENDA (5-1): Was put up after a lengthy inquiry last time out, and while he did check, I don’t think he was the best horse that day. He’s got enough back form that tells me he can run well here, but I’m curious about the drop in class off of a win over starter allowance foes. These connections probably could’ve found a similar starter allowance spot, so why risk losing the horse?; #6 ST ANDREWS (6-1): Probably went a bit too far last time, and the slight cutback in distance should help him. There’s some speed in this race, and his best chance is probably laying back and making one big late run.

R8

On the Hill (MTO)
Street Rod
Twisted Filigree

#3 STREET ROD (12-1): Has run just twice to date and has been on the shelf since January, but his last-out effort saw him beat maidens in an open race at Gulfstream Park’s championship meet. He goes against winners for the first time, but this is a state-bred race, which means the waters aren’t quite as deep, and the price is certainly right; #4 TWISTED FILIGREE (5-1): Ran very well to be a close-up second last time out in his first start since June of 2023. He gets Lasix for the first time in this spot, he’ll likely be prominent from the jump, and he’ll have every chance to improve second off the bench; #9 BIG PRANKSTER (7/2): Is the morning line favorite and isn’t completely illogical, but he may need to step up here. His best races have come on dirt, not turf, and if this stays on its intended surface, the morning line price hits me as an underlay.

R9

Tapwrits Temper (MTO)
Shoot the Waves
Salvation

#2 SHOOT THE WAVES (8-1): Lost all chance at the start in his debut and has a major chance to improve at second asking going two turns. He’s bred to want every bit of this distance, and he adds both blinkers and Luis Saez, which may signal an intent to be on or near the lead from the jump; #8 SALVATION (10-1): Debuts for Linda Rice, whose first-time starters often need a race. However, he’s bred to love the turf, as his female family includes a third dam that threw Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner New Money Honey; #7 VAMONOS VAMONOS (8-1): Was a distant fourth in an off-the-turf race last time and may get his desired surface here. Frankie Dettori rides back, and this colt ran a bit wide out of the Wilson chute, which is rarely a winning trip.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,852

It, unfortunately, happened again: Sunday’s 11-race Saratoga card does not include a single two-turn dirt route. It does, however, contain two races out of the Wilson chute, and there may be more at that route if a weather forecast calling for rain proves to be accurate.

For decades, Saratoga’s two-turn dirt races have taken advantage of one of the best atmospheres in a sport fast losing good ones. This weekend, however, will feature only two scheduled two-turn dirt routes, as opposed to four carded for the Wilson chute.

I understand why the Wilson chute exists. I have no problem with a few races out of that chute every week for one-mile distance specialists. The current schedule, however, calls for far too many, even before races are moved off the turf due to weather.

There’s a lot more I could say here, but to make a long story short: NYRA, please stop doing this.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Macaw never once looked comfortable and was eased out of the fifth. I lost $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’m looking forward to seeing how #4 VIGGIEDAL takes to the turf in the Bolton Landing (race 7). In addition to a $22 win bet, I’ll play $4 exactas using her above #2 MIGHTY ERIU, #5 ME GOVERNOR, and #8 ABIENTOT, as well as $2 “saver” exactas with Viggiedal below those runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Squire Creek, Race 5
Longshot: Claire’s Charm, Race 1

R1

Claire’s Charm
Pletcher entry
Briland

#3 CLAIRE’S CHARM (6-1): Debuts in what looks like a loaded race but is bred to be a good one. She’s a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Muth, and the five-furlong gate drill on July 27th hints that she’s got plenty of potential; PLETCHER ENTRY (7/5): I prefer #1 ICE CREAM BOAT, who’s a half-sister to 2-year-old Grade 1 winner Chocolate Gelato. She’s been working well for her Hall of Fame trainer, who’s won plenty of races with John Velazquez riding for him; #5 BRILAND (5/2): Hammered for $675,000 at the OBS sale earlier this year and boasts a very good drill on August 4th, when she went four furlongs from the gate in :47 flat. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because I think she may want a bit longer than this six-furlong distance given her pedigree.

R2

The Taco Lady (MTO)
Jitterbug
Past Tense

#2 JITTERBUG (2-1): Ran well to be second in a similar spot last month and looms large given her experience in turf marathons. Another near-miss, however, would be alarming, and this hits me as a possible “now or never” spot; #9 PAST TENSE (9/2): Set the pace last time out going a mile and a half before fading to third. The slight cutback in distance should help her, and the rider switch to Flavien Prat is a big one; #7 QUITE CONTINENTAL (12-1): Stretches out to a marathon distance she’s bred to love in her first start off the claim for Saffie Joseph. She definitely needs to improve off of her three prior efforts, but I think a step forward is likely and that she’s worth considering underneath at a price.

R3

Bank Frenzy
Donegal Surges
Maker’s Candy

#3 BANK FRENZY (7/2): Sure seems like the main early speed in the Evan Shipman, draws favorably for this Wilson chute event, and gets a few pounds from the highweights in here. He’s got one way of going, and I think he’s got a big chance to wire this group; #5 DONEGAL SURGES (9/5): Ran second in the Commentator back in June and retains the riding services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. The post isn’t ideal, and he doesn’t have the early speed to be close up early on, but there’s plenty of back class here and he’d benefit from a meltdown; #4 MAKER’S CANDY (3-1): Got very good late last year, but was last seen finishing a non-threatening third in an off-the-turf race at this route. Luis Saez being in the irons hints that he’ll be a factor early, and I think his best chance is sitting close to my top selection.

R4

Tommy Two Socks (MTO)
Inflation Nation
Playground Legend

#10 INFLATION NATION (5/2): Drops in for a tag after chasing an allowance group that seemed very tough for the level. That day’s winner has run a few very good races at this route, and anything close to this one’s 2023 efforts would make him strictly the one to beat; #2 PLAYGROUND LEGEND (6-1): Gets Flavien Prat after a wide trip in his local debut last time out. He’s another taking a class drop to run here, and the ability he’s shown to pass others late is a definite plus; #9 KREESA (8-1): Was a distant second at this level last time out, but has run some of the best races of his career at this route. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a big one, and while his price won’t be as big as it was a few weeks ago, he still offers some value.

R5

Squire Creek
I Got No Munny
Didinger

#5 SQUIRE CREEK (7/2): Went wire-to-wire at this route last time out and looks like the main speed in here once again. He’s shown he’s very tough to catch if he gets loose on the lead, and that’s a trip I think he gets in this spot; #4 I GOT NO MUNNY (5/2): Just missed last time out in his first start since March of 2023 and is certainly eligible to improve. He’s in search of his first win since August of 2021, but most of his races over the years have come against much tougher competition; #7 DIDINGER (10-1): Was way too far back last time out and was left with too much to do as a result. A repeat of his two-back effort at Parx, though, could give him a chance at a piece of this at a price.

R6

Lucky and Gorgeous
Dubawi Wowie
Lady Laoban

#11 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (6-1): Was never going to win last time out after a terrible start forced him to sit well behind a very slow pace. Her two-back effort wasn’t bad, and the last-out clunker may mean we get an inflated price in a wide-open event; #6 DUBAWI WOWIE (6-1): Is eligible to improve given her relative inexperience and wasn’t beaten much by my top pick in her last outing. She’s another that would benefit from some pace in front of her, and I think she’ll get it; #2 LADY LAOBAN (7/2): Takes a drop in class and will run for a tag for the first time. That’s not as big a drop at the state-bred level, and I think she may be a tad overbet as a result, but there are certainly no monsters in here and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride back.

R7

Viggiedal
Abientot
Mighty Eriu

#4 VIGGIEDAL (9/2): Was very sharp in her debut, but flopped as the 2-1 favorite in the Schuylerville. Her two recent turf works indicate she likes the lawn. Anything close to her debut effort would give her a chance, and a move up (which is very possible) makes her a big overlay at that morning line price; #8 ABIENTOT (4-1): Earned her diploma at this route last time out and beat what I thought was a decent group. This trainer and jockey have both enjoyed plenty of success at this stand, and she’s shown she can pass others late, which isn’t common among 2-year-old sprinters; #2 MIGHTY ERIU (5/2): Comes over from Europe and will get bet based on that, but I have my doubts. She’s been running against better horses, but her last-out effort at Newmarket was underwhelming. It’s possible she’s just plain better than this Bolton Landing group, but her likely price doesn’t offer much value.

R8

Neptune Beach
Berning Beauty
Senegal

#2 NEPTUNE BEACH (6-1): Comes back to dirt after getting the ultimate equipment change, and both of those factors seem like plusses. Add in that he draws well, gets a strong gate rider, and faces horses that don’t seem interested in passing others, and he’s very logical; #6 BERNING BEAUTY (5/2): Drops in for a tag for the first time and is another that’s recently been gelded. These connections certainly merit respect, and in a field with many horses that have struggled for quite a while, at least this one has several reasons to move forward; #4 SENEGAL (8-1): Probably needed his last-out effort, which came off a layoff of nearly a year. He’s bred to want the additional ground he gets, he adds Lasix for the first time, and honestly, SOME horse in here has to run third in a race that doesn’t exactly inspire much enthusiasm.

R9

Super Chief
Blue Plate Special
Magia Nera

#8 SUPER CHIEF (7/2): Takes a massive class drop after chasing Squire Creek last time out. He ran for a $50,000 tag that day, and his claiming price is less than a third of that here. That can be seen as a red flag, but it’s not like he was awful last time and there’s enough back form that suggests he’s the one to beat; #2 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL (8-1): Is a deep closer going first off the claim for Joe Sharp. He probably lost all chance at the start last time out, and there certainly seems to be some speed signed on that he can rate off of and close into; #4 MAGIA NERA (4-1): Has a last start that’s too bad to be true, so I don’t have an issue drawing a line through it. Brad Cox claimed him out of that race, and he’s among the best in the game when it comes to new acquisitions.

R10

Enfuega
A Maize Zing Dotie
Foxy Cara

#2 ENFUEGA (4-1): Comes in off of a failed turf experiment that I’m completely discarding. Her two-back effort was a sharp performance where she showed some fight after dueling early, and she figures to be prominent from the jump once again; #6 A MAIZE ZING DOTIE (7/2): Has made her living at Finger Lakes, where she’s recorded eight wins in 20 starts. She ships in on a three-race win streak and merits respect, even though this certainly seems like a significant jump in class; #8 FOXY CARA (4-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but generally runs the same race every time out. Many of this race’s top contenders want to go early. She seems like one of the few closers, which means she could be the one they have to hold off late.

R11

Rocco Strong (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Ever Dangerous

#10 BOURBON DAY (5/2): Made up some ground late to be second in his local debut and takes a slight class drop in the Sunday finale. Flavien Prat rides back for Brad Cox, and I think he’s the most likely winner despite the outside draw; #5 EVER DANGEROUS (8-1): Hasn’t run in more than a year and hasn’t won in several campaigns, but he comes back protected from being claimed, which is an angle I love seeing. That hints the connections don’t want to lose the horse, and that confidence from an astute outfit means I need to use him; #2 MARWAD (6-1): Takes a significant drop in class, as it wasn’t long ago he was one of the better turf horses at Gulfstream Park. He contested a pair of graded stakes races over the winter, and while his best races may be behind him, he may not have to get all the way back to that form to be a factor here.