BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,901

Saturday is Alabama Day at Saratoga, and it’s one of my favorite cards of the year. I’m a sucker for races contested at the classic 1 1/4-mile distance. We don’t breed horses that go that far anymore, so seeing the cream of the crop do that in front of tens of thousands of people excites me.

Thorpedo Anna running in the Travers hurts this race’s star power, but it also does a big, big favor. That filly would be 1/5 in the Alabama, and justifiably so. Because she’s running elsewhere, it’s a much better race for handicapping and betting, especially if you don’t love 7/5 morning line favorite Candied (and I don’t).

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I was able to write this up early because my two key plays both scratched.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: This comes with a note that, if deadline times weren’t an issue, I’d be playing the Alabama (specifically #3 POWER SQUEEZE). However, to make things easier on the folks working to put The Pink Sheet together, my play comes in the fifth. 5/2 isn’t an exciting price on #7 MACAW, but I think that one is far and away the most likely winner. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, plus $4 exactas using him on top of #4 SALACIOUS and #9 RAMESSES. In addition, I’ll single Macaw in $4 doubles that start in the fifth and end with #6 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD, #7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE, and #8 AGENT CREED.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Macaw, Race 5
Longshot: Spaliday, Race 9

R1

Jonathan’s Way
West Point entry
McHale

#6 JONATHAN’S WAY (4-1): Debuts for Phil Bauer, whose horses have been very live to this point in the meet. This son of Vekoma is out of a mare who won first time out and added a stakes win later in her 2-year-old campaign. If he runs to a few of his workouts, he’ll be dangerous; WEST POINT ENTRY (7/5): The money will likely go to #1 SANSONE, a son of blue hen mare Diva Delite. That makes him a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Midnight Bisou, as well as stakes winners Verifying and Stage Left. My only hesitation here is that this looks like a fantastic two-turn prospect, not necessarily like a horse that has to win first time out; #4 MCHALE (6-1): Sold for $220,000 earlier this year, and while this barn’s first-time starters usually need a race, there are some solid drills on his tab. John Velazquez sees fit to ride, and that might be a clue.

R2

Brown entry
Royal’s Pride
Concord Green

#1 ASBURY PARK (5-1): Comes stateside after being purchased in the UK last year and has every right to be a turf monster. He’s by Frankel, out of a Street Cry mare, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., in his unveiling for top trainer Chad Brown; #7 ROYAL’S PRIDE (8-1): Boasts one of the best pedigrees you’ll ever see. This son of Dubawi is out of a daughter of Hall of Famer Royal Delta, who herself is a daughter of Delta Princess, a stakes-winning turfer that threw two Grade 1 winners on the grass; #5 CONCORD GREEN (8-1): Debuts for Shug McGaughey and is another that has a right to be a very strong turf horse. He’s a son of War Front and kin to Grade 3 winner Scarlett Sky, and red-hot rider Dylan Davis will be in the irons.

R3

Nic’s Style
Bandita
Benedetta

#4 NIC’S STYLE (9/5): Hasn’t run in eight months but has done nothing wrong to this point, with two runaway wins in as many starts. She’s been working steadily for Bill Mott ahead of her return, and a few of her drills are very, very strong; #2 BANDITA (6/5): Has run just once, and it was in January of 2023. It was an electric performance, to be sure, and if she’s ready to run, she could easily win, but these are too many “ifs” to take given her likely price; #1 BENEDETTA (10-1): Had every right to need her last-out effort given that it was her first start since September. Her prior connections ran her in some tough spots a season ago, and she was second behind the classy Dreamfyre in the Grade 3 Sorrento at Del Mar.

R4

Hue
Turf Rocket
Beach Cruiser

#5 HUE (3-1): Has run in two off-the-turf races to date and has a pedigree saying grass is absolutely what she wants. Her last-out win was a sharp effort, and while she faces fellow winners for the first time, it’s not like there are any monsters here; #7 TURF ROCKET (5-1): Stayed in an off-the-turf race less than two weeks ago and ran reasonably well to be third that day. She gets back on turf and cuts back to a sprint, both of which should help her as she searches for her first win since March; #1 BEACH CRUISER (10-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, and that could be the class drop she wants. The field she ran against last time out was a very tough one, and I’m expecting a step forward at a bit of a price.

R5

Macaw
Salacious
Ramesses

#7 MACAW (5/2): Takes a monstrous class drop in his first start for Linda Rice. His last-out effort was a clunker, but that came for a claiming tag five times higher than the one he runs for today. There also isn’t much other early speed in here, and I think this one will be very tough to run down; #4 SALACIOUS (4-1): Was stuck wide in a race out of the Wilson chute last time out, and that’s not a recipe for success. He’s another that takes a significant drop, and the better draw second off the bench could yield a better result; #9 RAMESSES (5-1): Ships up for Saffie Joseph, who has done very, very well at the Spa so far this summer. The outside draw is far from ideal, but the recent uptick in his workouts shows he could be sitting on a big effort.

R6

Mighty Atlas (MTO)
Let’s Go Big Blue
Agent Creed

#7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE (4-1): Has never run a bad race here and exits a decent second in a race several of these runners come out of. That day’s winner was much the best and isn’t in this spot. Given his consistency here, I think this gelding owned by former Giants head coach Bill Parcells is the one to beat; #8 AGENT CREED (5-1): Runs against state-breds for the first time since last year, and he did fairly well in those races. This is his second start off a brief freshening, and he has enough tactical speed to sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace; #6 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD (9/2): May have been compromised by some trouble last time out, when he was fourth after back-to-back wins downstate. He’d benefit from a battle up front, and he might be good enough to win this with the clean trip he didn’t get a few weeks ago.

R7

Final Turn entry (MTO)
Dripping Gold
Freedom Trail

#7 DRIPPING GOLD (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while but gets Frankie Dettori and has shown ample tactical speed in the past. This race seems light on that elsewhere, and he ran well to be fourth at this distance two starts ago over Aqueduct’s similarly-configured turf course; #4 FREEDOM TRAIL (7/2): Makes his first start since November and ran in some big races a season ago. He chased the likes of Integration and Mo Stash, and he’s a major player in here provided he’s ready to run; #8 MONDEGO (5-1): May prefer the turf course at Belmont, as he hasn’t won since his last outing there more than a year ago. However, he also looks like the main speed in here and exits a stakes-quality optional claiming event going a bit longer several weeks ago.

R8

Donegal Surges
Bank Frenzy
Timeout

#9 DONEGAL SURGES (3-1): Was a best-of-the-rest second in the Commentator last time out and drops into first-level allowance company here. He’s allowed to run on Lasix, which is another plus, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for Hall of Fame conditioner Todd Pletcher; #4 BANK FRENZY (6-1): Has a lot of early speed and runs for a barn that’s definitely heated up over the last week or two. His lone two-turn start saw him race well clear throughout and win by five lengths. I don’t think he’ll get that type of trip here, but he does hit me as the one they’ll have to catch; #10 TIMEOUT (5/2): Ran third in the Curlin last month and comes back into the allowance ranks here. He’s certainly got potential to improve, but I haven’t been overly impressed, figures-wise, and he’ll likely need to fire a career-best shot against a field that came up pretty tough for the level.

R9

Manama Gold (MTO)
She Feels Pretty
Spaliday

#7 SHE FEELS PRETTY (2-1): Didn’t kick on in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks, but that distance was probably a bit too far. She hits me as a miler, and the distance of the Grade 2 Lake Placid should be far more suitable. A return to the form we saw as a 2-year-old would make her a formidable favorite; #5 SPALIDAY (12-1): Won an ungraded stakes race last time out and gets Frankie Dettori in this spot. She’s yet to run a truly bad race, and there seems to be enough pace signed on to give this one-run closer a chance at a big piece of this; #9 PROCTOR STREET (8-1): Is another deep closer, and she’s making just her third career start here. Most recently, she rallied from last to take her first try against winners, and I think there’s a chance she’s still got more room to improve given her relative inexperience.

R10

Power Squeeze
Candied
Chatalas

#3 POWER SQUEEZE (9/2): Is a filly I’ve respected for quite a while, and her form looks much better if you draw a line through the Kentucky Oaks. That was contested over a muddy track she clearly hated. Her pedigree says the 10-furlong distance of the Grade 1 Alabama hits her right between the eyes, and her likely price provides some value; #7 CANDIED (7/5): Is a logical favorite after her second-place finish in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks behind Thorpedo Anna. I’m not 100% sure this distance is quite what she wants, but she’s got enough tactical speed to sit close to the pace and get first run turning for home; #2 CHATALAS (8-1): Ships in after a score in the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks and hits me as the main speed. Her pedigree says she should be able to stretch out, and there’s always a chance a frontrunner gets comfortable up top and forgets to stop.

R11

Yo Daddy
Who’s the King
Smile Mon

#3 YO DADDY (3-1): Has run second a lot lately, but one of those efforts was at this route and saw him earn some big figures. Blinkers go on this Linda Rice trainee, which hint that he’ll be up a bit closer in this spot, and he’s got the ability to break through; #4 WHO’S THE KING (6-1): Disappointed as the 9/5 favorite last time out, but he didn’t have a great trip that day and the final margin of defeat may be inflated as a result. Cutting back to a mile makes a lot of sense, and we may get some value here thanks to an excusable last-out clunker; #1 SMILE MON (12-1): Has legitimate stamina questions, but we know inside speed is very, very good out of the Wilson chute. He’s shown plenty of zip in his prior outings, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he holds on for a share at a price.

R12

Beautiful Thief
Heart of the Night
Naughty Destiny

#5 BEAUTIFUL THIEF (8/5): Hit the front in her unveiling back in June, which came in a race several runners in here exit, but faded to finish fourth. She contested a fast pace that day, and I’m anticipating her being much sharper at second asking for a barn that’s due to start turning second-place finishes into wins; #3 HEART OF THE NIGHT (2-1): Has hit the board twice at this route, including a third-place finish last month. She’s got the ability to win, but I’m concerned that she’s never once passed a horse in a race’s late stages. Given the 0-for-6 record, this seems like a “now or never” spot; #6 NAUGHTY DESTINY (6-1): Tried stakes company last time out and returns to the maiden ranks, which means she can run with Lasix. Her two-back effort saw her run a decent third downstate, and she may not need to move forward much to have a say in the outcome.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,901

It’s no secret I’m not a huge fan of the Wilson chute. I acknowledge why it’s there, and as a quirky alternative, it’s fine (although it’s nowhere near as fun as Santa Anita’s downhill turf course as far as “quirky alternatives” go).

However, over the past two summers, we’ve seen far, far, far too much of the chute. Dozens of turf races have been moved to the main track, and the chute is also being used in spots where two-turn dirt races would have been run. At Saratoga, two-turn dirt races start and finish in front of the grandstand, and I’m against any idea or concept that causes those races to be run fewer times.

Friday’s card, unfortunately, has a prime example of this. The early Pick Five has two Wilson chute races, and there are no two-turn dirt races on an 11-race card. This isn’t a positive, and the racing office would be wise to minimize the frequency of this moving forward.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My two key horses in the sixth both came up short, hosing both exactas and doubles. After scratches, I dropped $32.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I have two strong opinions in reasonably close proximity to one another. I’ll have $15 win bets on #5 BROWN EYED CAT (race 3) and #4 SIZZLE (race 5), and I’ll single both of them as bookends in the Pick Three starting in the third. My $3 ticket uses #1 DUNE ROAD/#1A CHALKY CAT, #3 ANDY CANT, and #5 WHISKEY N SODA in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $39.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Sizzle, Race 5
Longshot: April Antics, Race 1

R1

April Antics
Halo City
Pretti Xtreme

#2 APRIL ANTICS (10-1): Merits a long look at a price in the Friday opener. She stretches back out to a mile after a win going seven furlongs downstate, and she sports a win at this route from her time here last summer. This price hits me as too large, even given the wide-open nature of this event; #1 HALO CITY (7/2): Drops in class after running fourth at this route in the mud two weeks ago. That day’s runner-up was a close-up second at a higher level Wednesday, and the inside draw is certainly a plus; #7 PRETTI XTREME (2-1): Is another going down the class ladder, and she has back races that would obliterate this group. However, Linda Rice dropping horses this far is sometimes a red flag, and the far-outside post is a legitimate liability.

R2

Governor Sam
Spiralizer
Jet Sweep Joe

#3 GOVERNOR SAM (7/5): Has already run three times this season and exits a score in the Tyro at Monmouth. His two-back win at this route was an emphatic wire-to-wire victory, and I think he’ll once again be the one to catch here in the Skidmore; #5 SPIRALIZER (8-1): Ships in from Churchill after a clunker in the Bashford Manor on dirt. His pedigree, however, says turf is what he wants, and several strong local turf workouts across the street back that up. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and running back to his first-out effort would give him a chance; #1 JET SWEEP JOE (5-1): Put up a heck of a fight in the Tyro, when he was a close-up second behind my top pick at odds of 30-1. That was a career-best effort, and a repeat of it puts him right there, but it’s also possible he bounces after such a huge improvement.

R3

Brown Eyed Cat
Toscano
Broman entry

#5 BROWN EYED CAT (4-1): Overcame a speed-biased track with a sweeping rally that carried him to the winner’s circle in his debut. They did go pretty fast early on that day, but that’s not the sort of rally one sees often in first-out runners, and I think he could be a very, very talented horse; #4 TOSCANO (3-1): Found two turns to be too far last time out and should appreciate the cutback to 6 1/2 furlongs. His two-back effort here going seven furlongs was fine, and that day’s third-place finisher came right back to win; BROMAN ENTRY (2-1): Neither #1 LAND D’ORO nor #1A WINE RESPONSIBLY would be overly shocking, but I have some doubts with both. The former is a closer that drew a tricky inside post after a troubled trip last time out, while the latter makes his first start in nearly nine months and may very well need a race.

R4

Andy Cant
Whiskey N Soda
Rice entry

#3 ANDY CANT (5-1): Ran too poorly to be true last time out, when he trailed throughout against a higher-level group. Some of his best efforts have come at this one-mile distance, and he’s got enough early speed to dictate terms coming out of the chute; #5 WHISKEY N SODA (2-1): Was second going two turns last time out and cuts back a bit in his first start for Orlando Noda. I’m not sold on the quality of the field he ran against last time, but there aren’t any world-beaters in here, either, and with only three starts under his belt, he may have room to improve; RICE ENTRY (7/2): I prefer #1A CHALKY CAT, who found his form downstate before going to the sidelines and is protected in his return off the bench. This is his first start for the Linda Rice outfit, which is one of the best in the game with new acquisitions.

R5

Sizzle
Sacred Image
From Hello

#4 SIZZLE (6-1): Has yet to run a bad race to this point in her career and has proven two turns isn’t a problem. Tyler Gaffalione sees fit to ride for Lisa Lewis, who doesn’t have a big barn but has a long record of spotting horses well at the Spa; #10 SACRED IMAGE (5/2): Takes a big drop for Chad Brown after spinning her wheels a bit against allowance foes. She’s a formidable foe on speed figures, but the post is far from ideal and her one win to date came against a suspect group at Tampa Bay Downs; #7 FROM HELLO (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while but has shown ability against similar-level company and made a big move to be third last time out. Dylan Davis stays aboard, and he’s ridden as well as any jockey at the meet to this point.

R6

Braca
Irie Man
Dunedin Causeway

#6 BRACA (4-1): Didn’t have a great trip in an off-the-turf race last time out, but has shown some back form and may be worth another shot. Blinkers come off for this one, and a return to his two or three-back form would give him a shot in what appears to be a puzzling maiden claimer; #5 IRIE MAN (7/2): Probably lost all chance at the post position draw last time and had to negotiate a trip out of the Wilson chute from a far outside post. This seems like a friendlier trip, and his two-back effort at a similar distance downstate was much, much better; #3 DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY (8-1): Has had plenty of chances, but several of those runs came on turf, and he’s not a turf horse at all whatsoever. His last-out effort saw him run second in an off-the-turf event, and he should be going the right direction late.

R7

Bold Fortune (MTO)
Pay the Juice
Army Proud

#7 PAY THE JUICE (9/5): Debuted with a solid third at this route last month and was flying late. He simply ran out of racetrack that day, and he should be much sharper at second asking for a trainer whose horses often get better with experience; #3 ARMY PROUD (5-1): Was one-paced in that race, where he was fifth after a wide trip. His bottom-side pedigree hints he’ll get better with a start under his belt, and Tyler Gaffalione will ride back for trainer Joe Sharp; #5 SON OF HONOR (8-1): Makes his debut and has a right to love the lawn. This son of More Than Ready is out of a Dominus mare, one that was a stakes-winning turf horse during a very solid career.

R8

Brown entry
Caroline Street
Swoop to Finish

#1 TAX IMPLICATIONS (6/5): Was last seen winning the Grade 3 Eatontown at Monmouth and gets to run in this optional claimer via some creative spotting by trainer Chad Brown. Her price won’t be attractive to those seeking value, but she’s one of the most likely winners on the card and will be bet accordingly; #8 CAROLINE STREET (8-1): Ships in from Churchill Downs, and plenty of horses that didn’t love the turf there have thrived in upstate New York. She made a middle move last time out before settling for fourth, and she’s flashed plenty of talent at several points in her career; #4 SWOOP TO FINISH (12-1): Sat a strange trip last time out, when she found herself dueling for the lead. That’s not her desired trip. She wants to sit back and, well, swoop late, and a return to that positioning would give her a chance at a big piece of this.

R9

Leeloo
Cousin Kristi
Tricky Temper

#7 LEELOO (6/5): Is a closer in a race full of early speed and looms large in the Union Avenue. She was last seen running second in a similar spot at Aqueduct, and she made up lots of ground in the stretch that day. The faster they go early on, the better her chances figure to be; #5 COUSIN KRISTI (6-1): Ships to New York after spending lots of time in Florida, and running against state-breds could do her plenty of good. Her last two efforts at Gulfstream were solid, and jockey Luis Saez has heated up in fine fashion over the last week or two; #4 TRICKY TEMPER (4-1): Topped optional claiming foes last time out, though it took a fantastic trip and a picture-perfect ride to do that. Two of her three wins have come over this main track, and while she’s a 3-year-old going against older, it sure seems like her form is going the right way.

R10

Camera (MTO)
Goa
Mixologist

#2 GOA (7/2): Makes her U.S. debut for trainer Chad Brown after running well several times in France earlier this year. She gets Lasix for the first time here, and this doesn’t seem like the strongest race for the level. I expect the morning line price to come down as a result; #10 MIXOLOGIST (5-1): Was an impressive debut winner two back before sitting a pretty strange trip here last month. Perhaps she bounced, or maybe she just got a less-than-ideal ride. However, I’m expecting a return to form here beneath Joel Rosario; #7 PROGENY (15-1): Was a decent fourth in a stakes race last time out and showed some speed that day. I’m expecting her to be prominent from the jump once again here, and she could have enough talent to hang on for a slice at a big price.

R11

Not Guilty (MTO)
Shakrevenge
Z Train

#9 SHAKREVENGE (6-1): Was clear in the stretch last time out, but got reeled in and settled for third. She has several prior sharp races on her sheet, and Jose Ortiz should be able to get her to relax, which has been an issue. If that happens, I think she’ll be tough in the Friday finale; #12 Z TRAIN (5-1): Draws terribly but responded to the drop in class a few weeks ago, when she was third in a three-horse photo and was beaten just a head. Frankie Dettori rides back for a barn that’s had some rotten luck at this stand; #10 OUR FINEST HOUR (4-1): Takes another drop for high-percentage connections after running third for a $75,000 tag here last month. She’d benefit from a pace meltdown, and her back class could make her a prime contender.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,933

NYRA aired a feature on the Davis family as part of its Wednesday broadcast. It’s a bit older, but it’s one of my favorites. I grew up watching Robbie “On The Rail” ride across the New York circuit, and seeing his kids ride at a high level is pretty cool (especially since one of them, Dylan, has taken one of the biggest steps forward by a jockey in recent memory).

Back when I worked for HRTV (prior to its acquisition by the network now known as FanDuel TV), the ace production team put together an episode of “Inside Information” focusing on the family. This was quite a while ago, but it still holds up well. It’s on the Stronach Group’s Vimeo channel, and if you’ve got a half-hour, it’s well worth a watch.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Revalita didn’t start well in the eighth and had too much to do. One of my “underneath” horses won, but Revalita could only salvage third, and I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the sixth, a 2-year-old race I find fascinating. I’ll key #6 CHELSEY’S CHOICE and #9 DR GLICK on top of $4 exactas that use those two, #4 COMPETITIVE MARKET, and #10 WONDERLAND underneath, and I’ll use my top picks in an additional $2 exacta box. Finally, I’ll kick off $3 doubles with those two and finish them with #1 EZ ROLL and #4 COURTLY BANKER in the seventh (the Rick Violette).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Donegal Forever, Race 8
Longshot: Charles J, Race 9

R1

Keepinitreal
Vibrant Express
Man of Mischief

#9 KEEPINITREAL (4-1): Gets a tepid nod in a wide-open Thursday opener. This son of City of Light is out of a mare that was a 2-year-old stakes winner, and the steady string of workouts for Chad Brown hint that this colt could be ready to go; #8 VIBRANT EXPRESS (3-1): Is a son of Vekoma, whose first batch of offspring has been very, very impressive to this point. His bottom-side pedigree isn’t too shabby, either, as his stakes-winning dam has thrown no less than seven winners to date; #3 MAN OF MISCHIEF (5/2): Debuted earlier this summer and was a solid second, beating that day’s third-place finisher by nearly 10 lengths. This barn’s first-time starters sometimes need a race to get going, and improvement is logical at second asking (though this spot seems a bit tougher than the one he exits).

R2

Dubb entry
Chess Master
D’Angelo entry

DUBB ENTRY (7/5): Is a rare three-horse entry, and no horse in the trio would be a shock. I most prefer #2X HIGH FRONT, who takes a massive drop in class to run against $32,000 claimers and won a stakes race sprinting on turf last summer; #7 CHESS MASTER (3-1): Hasn’t run since October but is a major player if he’s ready to go. He contested last year’s Harvey Pack at this route of ground, which came after a win at this level last August; #3 RITHM NIC (5-1): Was claimed last time out after wiring a field of turf sprinters in his local debut. Jose D’Angelo does strong work with new acquisitions, and he sure looks like one of the main speeds in this spot (a stronger one, though, than the one he comes out of).

R3

Repole entry
Ignite the Light
Prairie Dunes

REPOLE ENTRY (2/5): Boasts two major players, though I prefer #1 PENTATHLON after the draw. That one gets a cushy inside draw coming out of the Wilson chute, exits a hard-luck second downstate, and was third two starts ago in what’s turned out to be a key race; #6 IGNITE THE LIGHT (10-1): Makes his first start in nearly six months but sports several flashy drills ahead of his return. This isn’t a barn that works its horses very fast, and the presence of Frankie Dettori doesn’t hurt, either; #4 PRAIRIE DUNES (8-1): Has had his share of issues, with just two starts since January of 2023. However, it can be argued his best race came here in his debut, when he was a fast-closing second behind a highly-regarded winner.

R4

Classic Mark
He’s Got This
Allaboutthemoney

#2 CLASSIC MARK (5/2): Was one of several horses eliminated at the start last time out (why the stewards didn’t take a look at that remains a mystery). He was claimed by Joe Sharp that day and gets a big switch to jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who will likely be gunning this one to the front from his inside post; #7 HE’S GOT THIS (3-1): Takes a big drop first off the claim for Mike Maker and may have been my top pick with a better post. His two-turn form is a plus given the quirky configuration of this route, and a repeat of his winning effort two starts ago would give him a big shot; #6 ALLABOUTTHEMONEY (4-1): Was second in the same race my top pick exits, though he undoubtedly got a bit lucky with several prime contenders being compromised at the start. He hasn’t won in a while, but would benefit from another rival going with my top selection early.

R5

Call Bob
Very Stormy
Concorde Spirit

#7 CALL BOB (7/2): Looked home and cooled out last time out, but was run down by a super-impressive first-time starter who closed against a bias. This sprint doesn’t seem heavy on early zip, and the outside draw means jockey Jaime Torres could have plenty of options out of the gate; #8 VERY STORMY (8-1): Was a close-up second last time out in a race where the third-place finisher was well back. This is a step up in class out of the maiden claiming ranks, but he seems to be going the right way, and the same can be said for jockey Luis Saez; #6 CONCORDE SPIRIT (5/2): Rallied a bit in his debut to be third for a barn whose first-time starters aren’t always fully-cranked. I’m expecting a step forward in his second career start, although such improvement might be needed in a reasonably strong race for the level.

R6

Dr Glick
Chelsey’s Choice
Wonderland

#9 DR GLICK (4-1): Is one of two debuting runners from the Chad Brown barn, and this is the filly I prefer. Flavien Prat lands here, both sides of her pedigree seem to indicate she’s got potential, and a few of her workouts hint that, too; #6 CHELSEY’S CHOICE (10-1): Merits a long look at a price given a world-class turf pedigree. This daughter of American Pharoah is out of a War Front mare, and her bottom-side breeding includes a third dam that threw two Group 1 winners overseas; #10 WONDERLAND (7/2): Draws a terrible post for her debut, but this barn has been winning a ton here and first-call rider Jose Ortiz has the mount. She sold for $385,000 at the OBS sale earlier this year, and if nothing else, it sure looks like two turns on turf is what she wants.

R7

Doc Sullivan (MTO)
Courtly Banker
Ez Roll

#4 COURTLY BANKER (4-1): Is a maiden in a stakes race, but he ran well to be second at this level last time out, and that day’s runaway winner skips this spot. John Velazquez rides back, and he’s got enough tactical speed to sit an ideal trip in the Rick Violette; #1 EZ ROLL (12-1): Has a record that looks much better if you draw a line through his last-out clunker. Forgive that effort, and you’ve got a horse that’s shown some talent, gets Luis Saez, and looks like an overlay at or near his morning line price; #3 INSTAMATIC (7/2): Stretches out to two turns after back-to-back scores downstate going much shorter. I don’t know if two turns is truly what he wants, but his two recent victories have been professional and he doesn’t have to move forward much to be a player.

R8

Donegal Forever
Cooke Creek
Classic Catch

#2 DONEGAL FOREVER (2-1): Has a record that looks much, much better if you toss his two efforts run without Lasix. Do that, and you have a horse with three wins in four starts (the lone defeat came when he chased eventual Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride). I think he sits an ideal trip and gets first run turning for home; #3 COOKE CREEK (9/5): Has won two in a row, including an impressive score first off the claim for new trainer Mike Maker. This is probably a stronger group, and the potential for a bounce off of a much-improved effort is there, but further improvement would make him a handful; #6 CLASSIC CATCH (4-1): Is a deep closer and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Such a scenario isn’t impossible here, in a race with several runners who appear to need the lead, and he may be the one they have to hold off late.

R9

Accidental Bid (MTO)
Charles J
New York Scrappy

#8 CHARLES J (8-1): Gets Lasix and Frankie Dettori in this spot, and I think he’s got plenty of potential to improve. He pressed a solid pace two back and should get a much friendlier trip in here. A step forward from that race gives him a chance at a square price; #7 NEW YORK SCRAPPY (9/2): Goes back to the turf after a disappointing effort last time out. He dueled through a very fast opening quarter-mile that day, and more distance plus a surface switch could put him in a much better position; #6 KID KREESA (6-1): Did everything but win last time out, when he led for all but the last stride at odds of 31-1. It was a painful defeat if you needed him (like me…), and he shows up here looking like a major pace factor.

R10

Majestic Return (MTO)
Strictly Taboo
Risk Threshold

#4 STRICTLY TABOO (6-1): Is certainly a “horse for the course,” with two wins in as many starts at this route since coming back off the bench. I loved her in a spot last week that was cancelled, and while this seems like a tougher group of opponents, it certainly seems like she’s thriving; #10 RISK THRESHOLD (7/2): Earned the diploma last time out and looks like a possible “speed of the speed” type. She’s run well in all three starts to date, and Joel Rosario landing here (instead of on my top pick) seems notable; #9 RILEY JEAN (8-1): Ran well a few weeks ago when she closed to finish second beaten less than a length. She’s turned a corner since coming up north, and while I think she’s a bit better on synthetic, she’d benefit from a battle up front and should be going the right way late.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,963

Today’s feature is the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard over fences. As you handicap, though, be very, very careful. If you have particular sets of past performances, you will not see running lines for several prominent horses.

Past performances from Brisnet and TwinSpires do not include races from Europe for both Zarak the Brave and Pickanumber. If you have a form from those providers, know that what you’re seeing is very much an incomplete picture. Past performances from other data providers, including the Daily Racing Form, have these races in their files.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Key horse Quickick finished third, so it wasn’t a great day. After scratches, I dropped $45.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll go to the eighth race, where I’ll try to extract value out of #4 REVALITA by keying her in the vertical exotics. I’m playing $6 exactas with her above #1 MISS SAN GABRIEL, #3 DESTINY STAR, and #10 CURLIN’S GIRL, and $2 “saver” exactas with those three on top of Revalita. Additionally, I’ll play $1 trifectas using Revalita on top, with those three horses in the second and third spots.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Midnight Mile, Race 3
Longshot: Typhoon Fury, Race 9

R1

Pickanumber
Zarak the Brave
Too Friendly

#6 PICKANUMBER (5/2): Did a lot of the dirty work in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, where he settled for second money. Here, he faces many horses that have audibled to run here after several postponements of the Jonathan Kiser, and him getting weight from the likely Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard favorite is another plus; #4 ZARAK THE BRAVE (9/5): Was going to be an overwhelming favorite in the Kiser after running against very strong company overseas. He’ll still take plenty of money here, but this race wasn’t the plan, and the 158-pound impost makes me a bit nervous; #1 TOO FRIENDLY (6-1): Comes over from Europe and makes his stateside debut for the same barn that saddles my top selection. He was fourth of 20 in a rich race at Newcastle last time out, and that race may have had a better group than the one he tackles here.

R2

Midtown Lights
Cinderella’s Cause
Saratoga Kisses

#3 MIDTOWN LIGHTS (9/5): Is clearly a much better horse with Lasix and gets to run with it here after a failed try against stakes foes last time out. That race came going two turns, and this one-mile route out of the Wilson chute against a weaker bunch could be exactly what she needs to record her third win in the last four starts; #1 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (1-1): Was second in the mud last time out at this route and comes back in less than two weeks. The inside draw is certainly a plus, though I’m not quite sure she has the early speed necessary to truly utilize that going into the backstretch; #5 SARATOGA KISSES (6-1): Didn’t break well last time, when she was a distant third going two turns. She’s another that may be helped by a cutback in distance, and I’m expecting her to be a bit closer in the early going.

R3

Midnight Mile
Rice entry (MTO)
Blissful

#4 MIDNIGHT MILE (9/5): Has finished second in a pair of tries against stakes foes and looms large dropping down in class. She gets Lasix for the first time, and while she hasn’t won in a while, it’s not like she’s been running badly against horses that are much, much better than this group; #3 BLISSFUL (8-1): Is another coming back to the non-stakes ranks, and she was most recently third in an ungraded event at Colonial Downs. Her early-2024 form was quite good, and her versatility is a plus; #2 EDICT (6-1): Makes her U.S. debut and boasts a resume including a pair of Group 1 wins in her native Argentina. I have no idea what she beat in those races, nor if she’s ready to go off of an eight-month layoff, but some horses campaigned there have had success in the U.S., so it’s not totally illogical to include her.

R4

Lord I Wonder
Helcia
Islander

#1 LORD I WONDER (5/2): Didn’t break well in her debut but still managed to salvage second money. The stretchout to a mile makes sense given her pedigree, and logical improvement at second asking would make her the one to beat; #5 HELCIA (7/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and this one gets both Lasix and Flavien Prat. The long layoff is a concern, but she’s been working steadily for months and has a few solid efforts at this distance downstate; #7 ISLANDER (3-1): Ships in for Steve Asmussen and showed some potential at first asking. The far-outside post out of the chute is a killer, but she’s another whose pedigree says she’ll stretch out to this distance just fine.

R5

Landed (MTO)
Brocknardini
Awesome Czech

#1 BROCKNARDINI (8-1): Came off a long layoff against open stakes foes at Monmouth and got a peculiar trip in that event. Her 2-year-old form saw her win at first asking at this route and go on to win an open stakes at Laurel Park. I think she’ll relish running against New York-breds in the Suzie O’Cain, and that the morning line price is a considerable overlay; #6 AWESOME CZECH (5/2): Topped first-level allowance foes at this route a few weeks ago and isn’t a terrible morning line favorite. She was second in last year’s Tepin downstate, and it looks like she’s moved forward a bit as a 3-year-old; #2 SUMMER WHIRL (3-1): Earned the diploma last time out by rallying late beneath John Velazquez, who sees fit to ride back in her first try against winners. On paper, this is an ambitious spot, but she’s yet to run a bad race to date and may not have to be a whole lot to earn some black type here.

R6

Annascaul
Cara’s Dreamweaver
Young At Heart

#5 ANNASCAUL (3-1): Possesses one of the best turf pedigrees you’ll ever see in a New York-bred and debuts for Christophe Clement, who has enticed Frankie Dettori to ride. This filly is by American Pharoah and out of a stakes-placed turf sprinter. This dam, Epping Forest, has a massive turf pedigree that includes a third dam who threw the dam of Group 1 turf winner Astronomer Royal, among others; #1 CARA’S DREAMWEAVER (4-1): Has an experience edge over most of these and debuted with a solid second at this distance downstate. She passed plenty of rivals that day, which isn’t easy to do, and the rider switch to Manny Franco is a notable one; #7 YOUNG AT HEART (8-1): Debuts for a strong first-out barn and is bred to be a talented turf horse. She’s by The Factor and out of a mare that’s produced two winners from as many runners to date. That dam, Barrel of Dreams, was a six-time winner and a full sister to two stakes horses (and a half-sister to another).

R7

Willful Desire
Goldfarb entry
R Funny Bizness

#7 WILLFUL DESIRE (8-1): Looks like the speed of the speed in a race without many runners that seem to want to pass others. She’s set very fast fractions in several of her recent efforts and goes first off the claim for a barn that’s dropping her down a level after she ran third for a $20,000 tag last month; GOLDFARB ENTRY (4-1): Of these two, I prefer #1 AWESOME ANNMARIE, who goes first off the claim for Rick Dutrow. She lost all chance at the break last time out, and she’s a major player if she can find the two-back form that saw her win for a $16,000 tag in June; #6 R FUNNY BIZNESS (6-1): Chased a few of these last time out, but makes her first start for Linda Rice, who’s among the best in the business with new acquisitions. She’s shown she can close, and a step forward combined with the likely race shape makes her a player.

R8

Crushed Ice (MTO)
Revalita
Curlin’s Girl

#4 REVALITA (5/2): Had every right to need her last race, which came off of an 11-month layoff. She was a bit rusty on that occasion, but she sure looks more fit in her workouts ahead of this one, and I’m expecting a much-improved performance for powerhouse connections; #10 CURLIN’S GIRL (10-1): Has tried stakes company in three straight starts and should appreciate the class relief. She gets Lasix for the first time in quite a while, and while the post position isn’t ideal, Jose Ortiz is talented enough to be able to work out a trip, and this price seems too big; #3 DESTINY STAR (10-1): Didn’t have a great trip here last month, when she was third despite a bad break and ran in spurts throughout the race. Luis Saez seems to be getting going after a slow start to the summer, and I think this aggressive rider will be hustling her from the start here.

R9

Hilarious Affair
Typhoon Fury
Final Verdict

#8 HILARIOUS AFFAIR (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a race that hits me as an absolute mess. This gelding, though makes his first start for Mike Maker, who excels with newer acquisitions and has plenty to work with here. If his synthetic form carries over to the turf, he should be a formidable foe; #6 TYPHOON FURY (15-1): Hasn’t run well in many two-turn outings, but his turf sprints look much, much better. He’s sprinted on the grass twice and hit the wire in front both times (one event saw him disqualified after winning by a nose). I think he’s doing what he wants to do here, and that he’s a major player at a big price; #9 FINAL VERDICT (6-1): Has shown speed many times of late and has hit the board in 10 of 12 lifetime starts. He was third at this route last month, and I think he could sit a picture-perfect stalking trip beneath Tyler Gaffalione in the Wednesday nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,008

We may (I stress, may) be back on the turf for most of Sunday’s card, and that’s great to see. As others have noted, the past two years have been some of the worst summers on record for races rained off the turf. Nobody benefits from that; not bettors, not horsepeople, and certainly not NYRA, which offers a less appealing wagering product on those days.

In his excitement over the change in weather, however, Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets committed a cardinal sin. He posted a screenshot of the 10-day weather forecast that showed nothing but gorgeous conditions. In other words, when Saratoga monsoons inevitably pop up, you all know EXACTLY who to blame (in case my sarcasm isn’t clear, Matthew’s a friend and I can’t resist the chance to bust his chops!).

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Aviator Gui didn’t run badly in his debut, but he flattened out late to run third. As a result, I dropped $40.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I thought today was fairly chalky, but the sixth race may offer some value with #6 QUICKICK, who may be a bit of a price and has been working very, very well. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, as well as $5 exactas using her above and below #4 TRADING STRATEGY and #8 TRANGO TOWER. Furthermore, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her to start and finishing with #3 NOTTOWAY and #4 RIDER’S SPECIAL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Ottoman Fleet, Race 10
Longshot: Nottoway, Race 7

R1

She’s Always Rosie
She’s Cool
Oh My Mia

#4 SHE’S ALWAYS ROSIE (4/5): Offers next to no value in the Sunday opener, but sure seems the most likely winner. She’s taken a major step forward since being claimed by Linda Rice in April, and a repeat of her last-out effort almost certainly wins this; #2 SHE’S COOL (9/2): Is the other half of a powerful Rice 1-2 punch and may be the lone closer in this spot. That hasn’t been a great running style in local sprints, but her third-place finish last time out at Churchill was a solid effort; #1 OH MY MIA (4-1): Broke through on the drop in class last time out, which was also her first start with jockey Jose Ortiz in the irons. He sees fit to ride back for Tom Amoss, who’s very good at keeping horses on the right track.

R2

Proprietary Trade
Apollo Code
Squints

#2 PROPRIETARY TRADE (6/5): Chased much, much better horses last time out in the Jersey Shore at Monmouth, which was won by Book Em Danno (the likely favorite in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens). He gets Lasix back on the drop in class, and that’s enabled him to run some very big races in the past; #1 APOLLO CODE (4-1): Won two in a row against older claimers earlier this year and comes back to the claiming ranks for this event against fellow 3-year-olds. He’s shown plenty of early zip in the past and could be in position to utilize that with the rail draw; #4 SQUINTS (8-1): Goes first off the claim for Tom Morley in here and exits a narrow win against slightly weaker competition. He had an eventful trip that day, and he showed enough talent to win a restricted stakes race late last year at Gulfstream.

R3

Icy Reply
Rachel’s Rock
Willow Bend

#2 ICY REPLY (5-1): Lost all chance at the start last time out, when his jockey lost the irons. That rider sees fit to get back abaord here on a drop in class, and a repeat of her winning effort two back would give her a big shot in what looks like a wide-open event; #3 RACHEL’S ROCK (2-1): Takes a significant class drop and has prior races that would crush this group. However, she hasn’t run since February, and that effort is her lone start since December. She could win, but I think her likely price is a bit of an underlay; #5 WILLOW BEND (7/2): Was claimed two back and returns to what’s probably the right level after a failed try against much better last time out. This barn has won just once at this stand as of this writing, but has hit the board with seven of 13 runners.

R4

Save Us Melania
Yingle Bells
Thedreamcontinues

#9 SAVE US MELANIA (3-1): Ran fairly well in her dirt debut in May and sports several flashy local drills for a high-percentage outfit. This is far from the strongest field you’ll see at this level, and the cushy outside draw is another big plus; #3 YINGLE BELLS (6-1): Showed some speed in her debut for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. She drops in class and adds Lasix here, and I’m expecting a considerable step forward at second asking; #8 THEDREAMCONTINUES (10-1): Debuted in an off-the-turf race out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t an easy route for a first-time starter. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard, and this is another second-time starter that has room to improve.

R5

Big Ego (MTO)
Cattani
Mazzei

#8 CATTANI (2-1): Is protected in his first start since October, and while the layoff is a concern, this is far from a tough spot, and anything close to his lone turf race to date makes him the one to beat. The steady stream of five-furlong drills downstate hint that he’s ready, and Flavien Prat’s presence is a plus; #10 MAZZEI (5-1): Stretches out from turf sprints and may very well make the early lead by default. The outside post is tricky, but he could also get comfortable on the front end against many horses that haven’t show much interest in passing others; #2 JUDGE RULES (9/2): Was pretty wide last time out and may have been compromised by that unlucky trip. His two-back effort at this level was a solid second, and while he’s been at this level for quite a while, I can’t totally ignore him.

R6

Quickick
Trango Tower
Trading Strategy

#6 QUICKICK (6-1): Sold for $550,000 as a yearling and has several very strong works on her tab ahead of her unveiling. Her dam was a classy, Grade 3-winning sprinter, and she may be an even better broodmare, with nine winners to her credit (including three who have won stakes races); #8 TRANGO TOWER (9/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here that are bred to be runners. This daughter of Curlin is out of multiple graded stakes winner Lewis Bay, and while seven furlongs is a tough first-out distance, her pedigree says this absolutely won’t be too far; #4 TRADING STRATEGY (5/2): Hammered for $500,000 last year at Keeneland and has been working steadily for Brown. Flavien Prat lands here, which is notable, and her bottom-side pedigree includes third dam Phone Chatter, a runner that earned Champion 2-Year-Old Filly honors after a season with multiple Grade 1 wins.

R7

Rider’s Special
Nottoway
Beach Boy Al

#4 RIDER’S SPECIAL (7/5): Gets wheeled back very quickly after a dud as an 8/5 favorite against higher-level competition. Linda Rice does this more than other trainers and has had some success with that move. Add in that this is a significant class drop, and I think this is a formidable favorite; #3 NOTTOWAY (12-1): Comes in from Finger Lakes, which is always a notable trip in these lower-level claiming races, and if you draw a line through a three-back dud where the running line says he was “in distress,” he doesn’t have a bad race on his sheet. This 15-time winner may not get much respect at the windows, but his best race could win this if the chalk misfires; #6 BEACH BOY AL (7/2): Never threatened a much-the-best winner last time out in what hits me as a much tougher spot than this event. He’s a closer in a race with some speed signed on, and the likely race shape could give him a chance to pick up the pieces.

R8

Baraye (MTO)
Mansa Musa
Yellow Card

#7 MANSA MUSA (5/2): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at Star of Mystery last time out in the Grade 3 Quick Call, and there’s no shame in running second to a very talented horse. He’s got two very strong races at this route, one some horses truly thrive at, and he seems like the one to beat in the Mahoney; #3 YELLOW CARD (6-1): Was very impressive last time out in his turf debut, and while he takes a step up in class here, I think he’s found what he wants to do. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for a trainer that means business when he ships, and this is one that seems like he’s going the right way; #1 FANDOM (7/2): May have been too far back in the Quick Call, when he was sixth of seven in the early going and was probably left with too much to do. He’s got some ground to make up on my top pick, but he did beat that rival two back in the Palisades at Keeneland.

R9

That’s Money
Anthracite
Street Swagg

#10 THAT’S MONEY (9/5): Takes a monstrous class drop after tiring in the Mike Lee last time out. He may not have liked the sloppy track that day, and having to run without Lasix might’ve hurt him, too. Here, he gets Lasix, as well as an ideal draw against restricted claiming company; #5 ANTHRACITE (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but was claimed by Linda Rice last time out and is certainly eligible to improve. That was his first start in three months, and Rice is one of the best in the game with new acquisitions; #2 STREET SWAGG (8-1): Ran well last time out, when he made the lead in a race out of the Wilson chute and held on for second at odds of 11-1. Flavien Prat rides back, and while he may need to work a bit harder out of the gate, it’s also possible he’s found the right rider for what he wants to do.

R10

Ottoman Fleet
Major Dude
Carl Spackler

#6 OTTOMAN FLEET (8/5): Exits back-to-back graded stakes scores and looms large for powerhouse connections in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. He’s got plenty of versatility, with enough speed to make the lead and enough of a kick to stalk and pounce, and that gives Flavien Prat an abundance of options; #3 MAJOR DUDE (8-1): Won a pair of graded stakes races a season ago and goes third off the bench for Todd Pletcher in here. His last-out win here was a very good one, and while he takes a step up in class, his 2023 form tells me he can handle it, and the morning line price hits me as an overlay; #4 CARL SPACKLER (9/5): Will take plenty of money after his win in the Grade 3 Kelso last month, but I have some reservations. His best effort puts him right there, but I don’t think he beat much in the Kelso, where he got a picture-perfect ride from Tyler Gaffalione. He may need to fire a career-best shot to get the money, and given his likely short price, I can’t be too enthusiastic.

R11

Carson’s Run
Deterministic
Legend of Time

#4 CARSON’S RUN (8-1): Is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss two” play. Toss the races directly before and after a long layoff, and all of a sudden, you have a horse with three impressive wins in four starts. There’s some speed signed on in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, and I think this one’s live; #6 DETERMINISTIC (9/2): Took to turf well last out, when he ran second in the Grade 3 Manila downstate. That day’s winner came back to win another graded stakes race, and there’s every chance this one keeps moving forward in his second start on the grass; #1 LEGEND OF TIME (5/2): Will almost certainly be a pretty heavy favorite given a few defections, but I’ve never been crazy about him. He couldn’t capitalize on an ideal trip last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and while these connections merit respect, it’s not like his form towers over his competition.