BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $942.25

Whitney Day is upon us, and it’s one of my favorite cards of the year. I remember going to the track as a kid the year Victory Gallop and Behrens threw it down (given all the photos he lost, if Behrens’s nose was about three inches bigger, he’d be a Hall of Famer). Among other renewals, I was also in attendance for Lawyer Ron’s romp, where he set a track record that stands to this day.

In addition to all of the stakes races, though, you’ll want to pay attention to several 2-year-old maiden races on the undercard. There are some genuine blue-chip prospects in these fields, and I think we may see a runner or two from these events in races like the Spinaway and Hopeful near the end of the meet. In fact, I like one of them enough to funnel my bankroll action through them!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My bankroll play made a lot more financial sense before the scratch of Stellify made Two Sharp an overwhelming favorite in the opener. She won, but I was expecting a price several times higher than what she went off at, so my win bet paid next to nothing. In addition, exacta and double plays fizzled, and I dropped $12.50.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Cards don’t get much better than this, and I’m focusing on the middle portion of it. I’ll have a $12 win bet on #9 ANTIETAM in the sixth, and he’s a single in $5 doubles that end with #4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ and #6 CARSON’S RUN in the seventh (the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby). Finally, I’ll use all of those horses in a $2 Pick Three ending in the eighth (the Grade 1 Test) with #1 EMERY and #6 BRIGHTWORK.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Antietam, Race 6
Longshot: Carson’s Run, Race 7

R1

Reach for the Rose
Assertiveness
Asbury Park

#4 REACH FOR THE ROSE (3-1): Debuted with a good second in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream Park, which awards a fees-paid trip to Royal Ascot to the winner. The pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be a problem, and this barn excels with both second-time starters and first-time routers; #8 ASSERTIVENESS (7/2): Is regally-bred, being by Into Mischief and out of top-class turf mare Isabella Sings. This is what she’s bred to do, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #9 ASBURY PARK (9/2): Sold for $318,000 overseas last year and is another bred up and down to be a strong turf horse. This son of Frankel has a steady string of drills for Chad Brown and merits respect despite a tough outside draw on the inner turf.

R2

Probability
Friend Ofthe Devil
King’s Leap

#3 PROBABILITY (5/2): Is one of several Todd Pletcher-trained contenders on a Saturday undercard laden with 2-year-old races. This son of Improbable hammered for $300,000 last year, and all three prior foals out of the Curlin mare Perazzi are multiple winners; #8 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (10-1): Sold for $145,000 despite a pretty modest pedigree and has been working well for a barn that doesn’t traditionally ask much of young horses. The last-out bullet drill, in particular, jumps off the page, and it’s noteworthy to see Castellano hop aboard when he probably had a few options; #9 KING’S LEAP (6-1): Ran well in his debut, when he was third behind a much-the-best winner. He made up some ground late that day and has a right to improve at second asking.

R3

Deck of Cards
Cinderella’s Cause
Movie Moxy

#1 DECK OF CARDS (2-1): Has reeled off five consecutive wins, with one of them coming in runaway fashion here a few weeks ago. She stretches out to a mile, which is sometimes a problem, but she’s run well enough going two turns that I don’t think the Wilson chute will pose any issues; #5 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (6-1): Has hit the board in each of her last six starts and cuts back after running second going two turns last month. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for Linda Rice, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace; #8 MOVIE MOXY (9/2): Has run second in a pair of stakes races this season and figures to be the more-bet Linda Rice trainee. Her lack of a win in over a year is certainly a problem, but she does have excuses given her terrible start at this route just a week ago.

R4

Call Her Bluff (MTO)
Midnight Concerto
Bossy Jeans

#10 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (3-1): Came off the bench running last time out, when she rallied from last to finish a fast-closing third in her turf debut. She gets Lasix for the first time and should have plenty of speed to run at. Any sort of move forward makes her the one to beat; #6 BOSSY JEANS (6-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a wire-to-wire score and faces winners for the first time. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Mike Maker, and she figures to be prominent early given her successful front-running trip on the Fourth of July; #2 DUSK (8-1): Stretches out to two turns but has a pedigree that says she should handle it. She had some trouble last time out at Aqueduct, but could have enough tactical speed to work out a solid trip beneath Manny Franco.

R5

Classicist
Sea Vista
Uncaged

#6 CLASSICIST (3-1): Has been working very well ahead of his unveiling in what looks like a loaded maiden race for 2-year-olds. He’s kin to Grade 2 winner Jouster, and second dam Storm Flag Flying represents one of the most productive female lines (third dam My Flag, fourth dam Personal Ensign) in recent racing history; #7 SEA VISTA (5/2): Debuts for Brad Cox, and this Godolphin homebred is another bred in the purple. His dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old and has produced, among others, stakes winners Nash and Spa City; #5 UNCAGED (6-1): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher, who also trains my top pick. He sold for $450,000 as a yearling and has a right to be a runner. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his pedigree hints that he wants way longer than today’s six-furlong distance.

R6

Antietam
El Prestigio
Praetor

#9 ANTIETAM (4-1): Is yet another promising Todd Pletcher trainee with a precocious, win-early pedigree. He’s kin to European champion 2-year-old Air Force Blue, his second dam is a full sister to American champion 2-year-old filly Flanders, and the work tab features several strong drills; #5 EL PRESTIGIO (8-1): Is the only one in here with any experience, and he probably lost all chance with his antics at the gate and a slow start. I love the Steve Asmussen work pattern of a strong two-back drill followed by a maintenance move, and this one has every right to move forward; #4 PRAETOR (5/2): Hammered for $725,000 at Keeneland last year and is bred to be any kind. He’s by Into Mischief, out of multiple graded stakes winner Curlin’s Approval, and has flashed talent in the mornings for trainer Chad Brown.

R7

Diego Velazquez
Carson’s Run
Legend of Time

#4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (2-1): Ships across the Atlantic for the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, which, oddly, may be a class drop for this Aidan O’Brien trainee. He most recently crushed older horses in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, and I don’t think he faces any 3-year-old monsters here; #6 CARSON’S RUN (8-1): Has a record that looks far better if you toss the races before and after his long layoff. Do that, and you’re left with a horse that has three wins in four starts and should be rolling late beneath red-hot rider Dylan Davis at a bit of a price; #3 LEGEND OF TIME (7/2): Was a beaten 3/2 favorite in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last time out, where he stalked a slow pace and never really kicked on. I think they may go a bit faster here, which could help him, and the presence of William Buick is always a plus.

R8

Emery
Brightwork
Ways and Means

#1 EMERY (5/2): Has won four of five career starts and is on a three-race win streak coming into the Grade 1 Test. One of those wins was an impressive score at this distance two back at Churchill Downs, and her flexible running style could give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #6 BRIGHTWORK (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but she’s been working very well here and she cuts back to a distance she’s already won a Grade 1 at. Furthermore, that win came here, in the Grade 1 Spinaway, where she overcame a tough trip to top…; #4 WAYS AND MEANS (7/5): …who will likely be favored after crushing first-level allowance foes here last month. I do have my doubts, though, largely because she’s found trouble in all five of her career starts to date. Her best effort would make her a player, but she may need such an effort combined with a smooth journey, and that, to me, makes her an underlay at her likely price.

R9

Smokin’ T
More Than Looks
Irish Aces

#8 SMOKIN’ T (6-1): Hasn’t run that well in two starts at Churchill Downs, but Churchill shippers have been running on this turf course, one we know this horse likes. He won last year’s renewal of the Lure Stakes, and given the likely race shape and his ability to make up ground late, I think he’s got a big shot to repeat; #9 MORE THAN LOOKS (2-1): Makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he rallied to be beaten just two lengths. If he’s ready, he’s got a big chance, and this barn does very well bringing horses back off the bench; #4 IRISH ACES (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but boasts plenty of back class and a running style that should make him dangerous. He was a close-up third in a stakes-quality optional claimer last time out, and he’s another that would benefit from a battle up front early on.

R10

Cogburn
Grooms All Bizness
Witty

#6 COGBURN (4/5): Is probably the best turf sprinter in America and looms very large in the Grade 2 Troy, which he won last year. Most recently, he sizzled home in the Grade 1 Jaipur over several of his opponents here, and anything remotely close to that effort would mean the race is for second; #8 GROOMS ALL BIZNESS (8-1): Gets a class test after winning four of his last five starts. He’s ultra-consistent and has shown he can run well without Lasix, which isn’t something that can be said for some of those around him; #10 WITTY (12-1): Chased a pretty slow pace in the Grade 2 Highlander last time out, where he settled for second after a less-than-ideal trip. His best game is when he’s way back and allowed to make one big run, and such a scenario would give him a big chance to hit the board here at a nice price.

R11

Bright Future
National Treasure
First Mission

#9 BRIGHT FUTURE (5-1): Looked beaten in his return to the races at Monmouth Park, but pulled himself together and rallied to take the Grade 3 Salvator Mile. He ran like a horse that needed a race off the bench, and he comes to Saratoga with a 2-for-2 local mark and in position to capitalize on a pretty ideal pace set-up in the Grade 1 Whitney; #3 NATIONAL TREASURE (9/5): Has won two high-profile Grade 1 races this season, including the Grade 1 Met Mile here on Belmont Stakes Day. I think nine furlongs is about all the distance he wants, and he won’t have it easy up front, but he’s a legitimate favorite who could establish himself as a frontrunner for Horse of the Year honors with a win in this spot; #5 FIRST MISSION (9/2): Was a heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, but faded to fourth after sitting what looked like a dream trip on the lead through moderate fractions. A return to his early-2024 form gives him a big chance for a barn that’s sent out plenty of live runners at this stand.

R12

St. Benedicts Prep
Striker Has Dial
Audacious

#7 ST. BENEDICTS PREP (4-1): Comes in off of two very sharp efforts and boasts plenty of early speed in a seven-furlong heat that doesn’t seem loaded with it. She has four top-two finishes in five tries at this distance, and Linda Rice sure seems to have this filly on the right track; #2 STRIKER HAS DIAL (5/2): Ran into Ways and Means two back and was a good second in the Wilton out of the Wilson chute earlier in the meet. She’s never run a bad one in three prior starts, and while she does tackle some older foes here, most of her opponents are fellow 3-year-olds; #5 AUDACIOUS (5-1): Won on debut after stalking a pretty fast pace at this route. Debuting at seven panels isn’t an easy thing to do, but she did a lot right that day and is certainly eligible to move forward at second asking.

R13

Drake’s Passage (MTO)
Mondego
Beuys

#11 MONDEGO (6-1): Cuts back in distance and gets a bit of class relief after finishing sixth against stakes-quality marathoners last time out. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he seems like the main speed in the Saturday finale and could be dangerous if he’s left alone up top; #4 BEUYS (6-1): Was one-paced here last month against a good group and gets reunited with Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him to a heartbreaking near-miss two starts ago downstate. He hasn’t won in a while, but this barn has heated up and the presence of a leading rider hints they mean business; #1 FREEDOM TRAIL (7/2): Makes his first start since November and danced a bunch of big dances a season ago. His recent works are sharp, for sure, and he’s a major player if he’s ready to run, but the layoff is a significant one and I don’t love closers on the rail.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $954.75

In conversation with a friend the other day, I mentioned that the lasting influence of Maximum Security’s 2019 Kentucky Derby disqualification has nothing to do with that race itself. Instead, it spotlighted that racing has no single, solid, concrete answer to the question, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?”

This was more than five years ago, and nothing has changed in that regard. If you ask that question to racing officials from four different jurisdictions within the United States, it’s possible you get four different answers.

The job of a steward isn’t an easy one. Very few decisions are black and white, and whatever action gets taken is going to tick somebody off. Having said that, the lack of consistency, at times, is baffling and would never be accepted in any other major sport.

What is a foul that merits disqualification? After the events of Thursday’s seventh race, I remain in search of an answer.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I had the right idea going against a vulnerable favorite in the eighth, but used the wrong closer. Six Percent was nowhere close, and I dropped $22.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m coming out swinging with plays in the opener, as #4 TWO SHARP sure looks just that. I’ll have a $15 win bet on her, and I’ll player her on top of a $5 cold exacta that uses #1 SHE’S WICKED SMART underneath. In addition, she’s a single in $5 doubles that finish with #1 TRIUMPHANT ROAD/#1A PAXSATIONAL, #5 HURRICANE EXPRESS, and #6 SIX KINGS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Cinderella’s Dream, Race 8
Longshot: Gallant Greta, Race 10

R1

Two Sharp
She’s Wicked Smart
Stellify

#4 TWO SHARP (7/5): Ran well to be second in her debut despite being rushed up into contention after a slow start. She’s worked very well since that initial outing, and logical improvement would make her very tough in the Friday opener; #1 SHE’S WICKED SMART (12-1): Had every right to need her last-out clunker given that it was her first race since August. The lone prior effort was a solid third in her debut, a race won by eventual champion Just F Y I; #6 STELLIFY (5/2): Makes her debut in this spot and has every right to be a runner. This daughter of Justify has been working steadily for Brad Cox and draws a cushy outside post, which could come in handy.

R2

Six Kings
Hurricane Express
Barker entry

#6 SIX KINGS (9/2): Goes to the turf in his first start for Joe Sharp, and he’s bred to love the lawn. His dam is a half-sister to Film Maker, one of the best turf distaffers on the circuit in her day, and this is also his first start off the geld and first start against maiden claimers; #5 HURRICANE EXPRESS (4-1): Hasn’t run since February and comes back for a tag. These are aggressive connections, so that’s not necessarily a disqualifying move. He did have an excuse in his debut, when he didn’t break all that well going two turns first time out; BARKER ENTRY (10-1): I prefer #1A PAXSATIONAL, who showed speed in his last outing. That was his first start in 11 months, and the pace he set was a solid one. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him up top early, and if he’s a bit sharper, he may be the one they have to catch late.

R3

Perform
Power Seeker
Costa Terra

#1 PERFORM (5/2): Was caught wide all around the track last time out and was only beaten less than a length. The inside draw should help him considerably, and he’s got enough speed to claim a prime spot going into the first turn; #6 POWER SEEKER (3-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but his second-place finish last time out was a solid effort in his first two-turn outing. Given his pedigree, I’m surprised it took the connections so long to stretch him out, and he may be doing what he wants; #3 COSTA TERRA (4-1): Has hit the board in four of five local starts and will be doing his best running late. There’s some speed in this event, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., inspires some confidence.

R4

Athena Beach
Gone and Forgotten
Tricky Temper

#1 ATHENA BEACH (7/2): Is one of several win-types in here and merits a tepid top pick in a wide-open event. The cutback to six furlongs should help her, and while she misfired here twice last year, one effort was going two turns, and another came right before a very long layoff (so it’s safe to assume something went wrong); #2 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (5/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but boasts several strong efforts in a row coming into this event. Most recently, she ran second in a similar spot at Aqueduct, and Frankie Dettori getting the mount is interesting; #3 TRICKY TEMPER (8/5): Has had some gate issues in both of her local starts this year. If she channels her 2023 form, she’s got a chance, but I can’t swallow her likely short price on a significant “if,” so I’m against her.

R5

Fantasy Performer
Luna Love
Pay the Bills

#8 FANTASY PERFORMER (6-1): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees here, but while she’s the bigger price, I think she’s the most live one. She didn’t break well in her lone prior start, so there was an excuse there, and she comes back with Lasix, blinkers, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., in a race where there are no world-beaters; #3 LUNA LOVE (10-1): Comes back to the turf after a distant fifth in an off-the-turf race a few weeks ago. Her two-back effort against similar at Gulfstream wasn’t bad, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she steps forward at a price; #7 PAY THE BILLS (5/2): Is the Brown trainee many will bet, but I’m not 100% sold. She was one-paced in her unveiling in June, her recent workouts are slow, and this is a $200,000 auction purchase in for a $40,000 tag.

R6

Own the Field (MTO)
Emirates Road
Gilded Craken

#10 EMIRATES ROAD (6-1): Runs first off the claim for Brad Cox, who doesn’t claim many runners but boasts a stellar record with new acquisitions. His two-back effort at Pimlico was excellent, and while the outside draw isn’t ideal, I’m expecting a big effort (and certainly an improvement over his last-out clunker); #1 GILDED CRAKEN (5-1): May have been a bit too far back last time out, but still salvaged a solid second against similar company. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I expect him to be much more forwardly-placed in this event; #8 FAIR HAIRED BOY (20-1): Has a lot of back form, albeit from several years ago, and his last-out effort at Parx shows he may have some gas left in the tank. He does need a pace to run at, but if he gets one, I’m expecting him to rally for a piece of this.

R7

Maggie T
Santagata
Carol T

#6 MAGGIE T (7/2): Hasn’t missed the exacta in her last four starts and looks like one of the main speed horses in a seven-furlong event that’s a bit light on it. She doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, which helps, and she’s been competitive in all four prior outings at this distance; #3 SANTAGATA (9/2): Took a big step forward at second asking to dust maiden special weight foes and tries winners for the first time. That’s not a small step up in class, but given her relative inexperience, she’s got plenty of room to move forward for a solid outfit; #7 CAROL T (4-1): Showed a bit more early speed last time out, when she was third downstate and may have moved a hair too soon. Her best game may be sitting way back and making one run, and she sure looks like a different horse since the addition of Lasix three starts ago.

R8

Cinderella’s Dream
Segesta
Greenfinch

#1 CINDERELLA’S DREAM (6/5): Has a price that’s tough to swallow in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks, but she couldn’t have been much more impressive in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She rated off of a moderate pace and gobbled up ground late. William Buick’s traveled across the pond for this one, and that’s often a clue that a Charles Appleby runner is sitting on a big one; #6 SEGESTA (7/2): Did a lot of the dirty work up front in the Belmont Oaks and had to settle for second. The presence of #4 MACANGA may make life a bit difficult for her, but I expect this one to be in front when they turn for home; #5 GREENFINCH (9/2): Comes over to the U.S. for Aidan O’Brien, who’s brought all-world jockey Ryan Moore in for the mount. She hasn’t quite run up against top-tier competition in Europe yet, but these connections are no strangers to success on American soil.

R9

Neat
Army Officer
Buttercream Babe

#4 NEAT (5/2): Has won five of eight lifetime starts, including a pair of graded stakes races, and he’s a logical favorite in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. I’m expecting him to be up close early on, and unlike many of his rivals, he’s shown he can run a top-class race without Lasix in his system; #8 ARMY OFFICER (7/2): Steps up in class, but does so after a sharp win in an optional claimer at this route back in June. Frankie Dettori rides back for Brad Cox, and he’s a contender if horse and rider can work out a trip from a tricky post; #2 BUTTERCREAM BABE (8-1): Faces the boys in this spot, which seems a bit ambitious on paper, but there aren’t any monsters in this spot and she fits on speed figures. Her two-back win at this route was a good one, and she exits a solid second in a stakes race at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

R10

Geopolitics
Gallant Greta
Blue Suede Sue

#9 GEOPOLITICS (7/5): Will be a very heavy favorite in a race that hits me as a “now or never” spot. She’s had four near-misses in as many starts, but draws favorably, looks like the speed of the speed, and could prove very tough to run down; #8 GALLANT GRETA (12-1): Makes her first start in this spot off of a big five-furlong gate drill here last week. That’s not the only sharp work on her tab, she’s kin to four winners, and her female family has produced, among others, multiple Grade 1 winner and top-tier broodmare Take Charge Lady; #2 BLUE SUEDE SUE (6-1): Is another first-time starter with a solid series of drills ahead of her unveiling. This barn hasn’t gotten going yet at this stand, but it’s enlisted first-call rider Luis Saez, who should have this filly up close early on.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $976.75

Bettors woke up Wednesday to news of an impasse between NYRA and Churchill Downs. As a result, Saratoga betting was unavailable on both TwinSpires and DK Horse, two prominent horse racing wagering platforms. This is similar to the battle NYRA engaged in with FanDuel earlier this month, where both sides came to terms just before the meet started.

Neither side wins in a dispute like this, and I say that as someone that has friends and former colleagues at all three organizations. The losers, however, are bettors and fans of the sport who seem to take it on the chin with astounding regularity.

Anything that makes it harder to bet on and/or follow horse racing should be a non-starter. However, this is the second time this month we’ve had such an incident. Here’s hoping cooler heads prevail, and quickly.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: The fifth race was rained off the turf, cancelling my action.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the eighth, which houses my longshot of the day. That’s #6 SIX PERCENT, who cuts back after a nice win going two turns here earlier in the meet. I’ll have a $10 win ticket on him, as well as $3 exactas above and below #1 CICCIOBELLO and #2 SHADOW DRAGON. For more on the late Pick Five, check out this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne” below!

TOTAL WAGERED: $22.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Jak N Bunny, Race 4
Longshot: Six Percent, Race 8

R1

Kantarmaci entry
Charging Aero
Critical Threat

KANTARMACI ENTRY (8/5): I prefer #1 WRITER’S REGRET, though #1A BRONX BOMBER wouldn’t be illogical, either. The former showed speed against a much better group last time out, and I’m anticipating him being prominent early given the inside draw; #5 CHARGING AERO (8-1): Didn’t have a great trip last time out, but has some prior races from earlier this season that would make him competitive in here. Fernando Abreu’s barn is a solid one, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a step forward; #4 CRITICAL THREAT (3-1): Has won two in a row coming into this event, and while the move to a lower-percentage barn is a red flag, simply maintaining his form could be enough. He’s recorded a pair of wins over this surface, so we know he likes it here.

R2

Summer in Erin
Beer Run
Letter Perfect

#4 SUMMER IN ERIN (9/2): Is one of two first-time starters from the Christophe Clement barn in this race, and this is the one I prefer. His dam’s four prior foals to race are all winners, and he sports a sharp series of local drills ahead of his unveiling; #3 BEER RUN (2-1): Is approaching “now or never” territory in his seventh career start. He’s been competitive at this level and distance elsewhere, and if the first-time starters need a race, he makes lots of sense. At his likely price, though, I’ll try to beat him; #7 LETTER PERFECT (3-1): Hammered for $425,000 last year and is the other half of the Clement duo. He’s got a right to be a runner, but none of his pedigree says “turf,” which could be a problem.

R3

Ichiban (MTO)
Avenue Niel
Aspen Grove

#4 AVENUE NIEL (6-1): Comes in off a long layoff for Clement and Rosario and boasts a recent work that hints she’ll be ready to run. She was last seen running third behind Chili Flag, who’s turned into one of the better turf distaffers in the country, and she’s run well going very long on turf in the past; #5 ASPEN GROVE (1-1): Has been running against much, much better horses of late, but I have my doubts. She’s yet to truly move forward from age three to age four, and while she could certainly win, this is a tough spot for the level, and she’s no lock; #1 BE YOUR BEST (5/2): Will attempt to drop down in class for the third time this summer following several races being rained off the turf. She won several races here two summers ago, including the P.G. Johnson, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride.

R4

Jak N Bunny
Caldo Candy
Key Point

#4 JAK N BUNNY (3-1): Ships in from Finger Lakes, where he’s been a win machine. He’s won six of eight career starts, has plenty of gate speed, and looks every bit like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #8 CALDO CANDY (3-1): Romped over first-level allowance foes here last month and draws a solid outside post. The third-place finisher from his last-out effort has since come back to win, and this barn is solid at keeping horses on the right track; #7 KEY POINT (5/2): Hasn’t run in nearly two years, but has posted a series of solid drills for new trainer Brad Cox. His form from 2022 was solid, and he’d benefit from some of the other contenders getting involved in a speed duel.

R5

Dancing Liana
Good Mission
Ariana Rye

#5 DANCING LIANA (3-1): Showed speed last time out, when she was second in a similar spot downstate. She sure looks like the horse with the most early zip in this field, and I think she’s got a great chance to get comfortable up front and forget to stop; #1 GOOD MISSION (6-1): Debuts for a solid first-out outfit and may not have to be much to win on debut. There are some solid works on her tab, and while first-time starters drawing the rail can be problematic, the presence of strong gate rider Kendrick Carmouche seems like a plus; #4 ARIANA RYE (2-1): Comes back to dirt and drops in class, but hits me as a vulnerable favorite. Her dirt races downstate weren’t bad, but the drop from state-bred maiden special weight races to state-bred maiden claimers isn’t a massive one, and that last-out clunker is a concern.

R6

Iron Max
McDiesel
Shoot the Waves

#8 IRON MAX (7/2): Came flying in his debut last week, when he was fourth and beaten less than four lengths despite showing no interest early on. This barn’s runners tend to get better with experience, and the fairly quick wheel-back hits me as a sign of strength; #3 MCDIESEL (9/2): Dead-heated for second in a race several runners in here exit, and he hits me as the most likely frontrunner in a race that seems light on early speed. His pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and it’s possible he gets an ideal trip on an easy lead; #6 SHOOT THE WAVES (12-1): Didn’t do much running in his debut, but I think you can draw a line through that race. His bloodlines say he’ll relish more ground, which he gets here, and the additions of blinkers and Tyler Gaffalione could both move him forward at a price.

R7

On a Spree
St Andrews
Bar Fourteen

#3 ON A SPREE (2-1): Has won his last two starts by a total of nearly 11 lengths and seems like a very logical favorite. Unlike several others in here, he’s got plenty of two-turn form, and it’s possible he’s better than ever as an 8-year-old after going to Mike Maker’s barn earlier this season; #6 ST ANDREWS (5-1): Has been popular at the claim box this season and has a flexible running style that could come in handy. He’s shown enough tactical speed to sit just off the pace, as well as a solid closing kick, and that should give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 BAR FOURTEEN (12-1): Needs to improve on speed figures but sure seems like the main speed, and that could make him dangerous at a price. Luis Saez has been a bit cold to start the meet, but he’s run second and third quite a bit, and this one has every right to hang around for a piece of it.

R8

Six Percent
Cicciobello
Shadow Dragon

#6 SIX PERCENT (12-1): Cuts back in distance after an impressive win against $32,000 claimers last time out. This is a tougher group, yes, but I like horses cutting back from two turns to the Wilson chute, and jockey Ramon Vazquez seems to be finding some momentum; #1 CICCIOBELLO (8-1): Is a pace play for me second off the bench, as the rail is a great draw for a miler with speed. He’s won out of the Wilson chute before, and this seems like the route and level he wants; #2 SHADOW DRAGON (3-1): Fits on speed figures but hasn’t won in more than a year. He did just miss last time out at Aqueduct, but the chute is an unknown, he doesn’t have a ton of early speed, and the likely price hits me as a bit of an underlay.

R9

McKulick
Eternal Hope
Chop Chop

#7 MCKULICK (2-1): Seeks to defend her title in the Grade 2 Glens Falls and should get an ideal setup to do just that. She loves these longer turf routes, was beaten just four lengths in the Grade 1 New York last time out, and should get plenty of pace to run at over a turf course where she’s enjoyed plenty of success; #5 ETERNAL HOPE (3-1): Went 2-for-2 stateside last year and attracts Flavien Prat in her first start since October. If she’s ready, she’s another who could get a favorable setup, but that layoff of nearly 10 months is a significant concern, even with powerhouse connections attached; #3 CHOP CHOP (5/2): Has yet to finish out of the exacta in six starts this season and exits a close-up second in a Grade 3 at Delaware Park. Her best effort came in the Grade 3 Bewitch at Keeneland, which she won, and she could get first run on the pace-setters when the real running starts.

R10

Welcome Back Babe (MTO)
Coach Sessa
Dance On Air

#12 COACH SESSA (9/2): Draws a terrible post in her first start since mid-October, but looms very large if she’s ready to run. Her debut here last summer at this route was easily her best race of the campaign, and she gets Lasix for the first time in the Thursday nightcap; #4 DANCE ON AIR (6-1): Had a few excuses last time out, as that was her first two-turn try and she was wide going into the first turn. This will be just the third start of this Chad Brown trainee’s career, and the addition of Flavien Prat certainly doesn’t hurt; #2 STARLIGHT DANCER (8-1): Responded to the added distance with a decent second at this level downstate. She didn’t have much pact to chase that day, but she made up some ground in the stretch and may have found what she wants to do.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,006.75

One of my favorite horses in training returns to the track Sunday. That’s Nobals, and yes, he’s a gelding.

Nobals was the key to a very successful Breeders’ Cup last year. I spent the day at the OTB near the Alameda County Fairgrounds in Pleasanton (my adopted home track here in Northern California). It was a chalky day, for the most part, but Nobals put a jolt into the proceedings by winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at double-digit odds.

As an aside, you haven’t lived until you’ve been part of a grown mob screaming, “COME ON, NOBALS!!!” As a further aside, based on Larry Collmus’s call of that race, we can all agree the people insisting it was pronounced “nobles” were lying through their teeth, right?

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of my spot plays fired. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on my best bet of the program. That’s #6 SHESALITTLE EDGY, and I’ll try to extract some value with $10 exactas using her on top of #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE and #4 GOLDCREST. In addition, she’ll finish off $5 doubles that start in the second, with #1 TRY IT AGAIN and #5 GOLDEN DAGGER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Shesalittle Edgy, Race 3
Longshot: Two Turntables, Race 6

R1

My Shot
Reliable Source
Donor Advised

#2 MY SHOT (3-1): Makes her debut here after a string of very sharp workouts in Kentucky. This daughter of Constitution sold for $240,000 as a yearling, and Tom Amoss has enjoyed plenty of success at this meet already; #4 RELIABLE SOURCE (5/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group and ran a solid second in her unveiling last month. She rallied from ninth of 11 in that event and attracts Flavien Prat for career start number two; #6 DONOR ADVISED (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a right to be a good one. She’s a daughter of top sire Gun Runner and sold for $325,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale. The hesitation here is because of the likely short price and the workouts, which are solid but don’t appear spectacular.

R2

Golden Dagger
Try It Again
George’s Vice

#5 GOLDEN DAGGER (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a claiming race where I don’t have much of an opinion. However, she drops down in class and seems like the lone closer in a race full of low-quality early speed. The question is, can she replicate her turf and synthetic form on dirt?; #1 TRY IT AGAIN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but exits a decent second at this level and distance downstate. This barn is on a cold streak to start the meet, but this is another that’s at least shown some interest in passing others late; #2 GEORGE’S VICE (5/2): Drops in class from the state-bred allowance ranks and has shown plenty of early zip. Her last two starts against claimers have been wins, though you have to go back to 2023 to find them.

R3

Shesalittle Edgy
Goldcrest
Ribot’s Valentine

#6 SHESALITTLE EDGY (8/5): Drops down in class for this event after being competitive for twice this tag two starts ago. The runaway winner from her last-out effort came back to win again, and this seems like a much softer spot; #4 GOLDCREST (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., in her debut on this circuit. Most recently, she was a close-up third going a bit longer at Monmouth Park, and she was a runaway winner at this distance two back at Gulfstream (albeit against weaker foes); #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE (8-1): Comes back to dirt and drops in for a tag after two unsuccessful turf tries downstate. Her lone start at this distance was a win, and she’s a candidate to improve at a bit of a price.

R4

First Class Cat (MTO)
Delightful Dixie
Linarite

#4 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (9/2): Is 2-for-2 since coming off the bench last month and gets a class test here. However, she’s a speed horse that attracts Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders in the game, and I think she’ll be the one to catch; #2 LINARITE (9/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year but likes this route and came up just short last time out. If the pace is faster than I anticipate, this is the mare that should be the prime beneficiary; #6 FANCYPANTS JULIANA (7/2): Is the stablemate of my second choice, and she probably has a bit more early speed than that one. However, she’s got a history of finding trouble, and she’ll likely be a shorter price than her barn buddy given the presence of Flavien Prat. She’s not impossible, but given the relative lack of value, I’ll look elsewhere.

R5

Regulatory Risk
Sedona
Crushed Ice

#4 REGULATORY RISK (9/5): Takes a big drop in class after running into Thorpedo Anna twice in a row. She was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks two back, and she gets Lasix for the first time, which could move her forward further against first-level allowance foes; #7 SEDONA (2-1): Just missed last time out after sitting a few lengths behind a moderate early pace. She’s bred to get better with experience, and there should be some pace for her to chase; #1 CRUSHED ICE (12-1): Has won three in a row on her way up the class ladder and has the early zip to take advantage of the inside draw. This is a much, much tougher group, but she’s certainly on the improve and could lead them a long way at a price.

R6

Opulent Restraint
Two Turntables
Coral Sea

#3 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Is one of the best-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds, from a turf standpoint. This daughter of Dubawi is out of Significant Form, who won several graded stakes races, and she’s been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of her unveiling; #8 TWO TURNTABLES (15-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was on dirt. This daughter of Street Boss and an Empire Maker mare gets to go two turns on turf, which is what she’s bred to do, and Mike Maker trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going; #9 CORAL SEA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may be talented enough to overcome the outside post. This daughter of Kingman has a classy female family dating back to third dam Win McCool, a graded stakes winner.

R7

Rivelli entry
Boat’s a Rockin
No Nay Hudson

RIVELLI ENTRY (4/5): #1 NOBALS makes his 2024 debut off a long layoff. The last time we saw him was when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and while this is a very strong group for the level, he’ll be tough to beat if he’s ready to roll; #7 BOAT’S A ROCKIN (10-1): Wired a solid group at this route two starts ago and probably went just a bit too long last time out. He’s a distance specialist through and through, and I expect him to be prominent early; #8 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Hasn’t raced since December but is yet another runner with plenty of back class. The recent local drills are very sharp, and Wesley Ward knows how to get horses ready off of long breaks.

R8

Devil’s Cay
For Some Reason
Quick Hammer

#2 DEVIL’S CAY (7/2): Has been running against much better on turf and comes back to the dirt here. His races against similar earlier this year at Aqueduct were solid, and Flavien Prat lands here when he probably had several options; #4 FOR SOME REASON (4-1): Takes a big drop in class for ultra-aggressive connections. His most recent drill was a sharp one here at Saratoga, and I think there’s a chance he just didn’t like Churchill. Gulfstream is a quirky surface, but he showed talent there and has a big chance if he can channel that form; #5 QUICK HAMMER (5-1): Was an impressive wire-to-wire winner two back before tiring as an odds-on favorite last time out. He seems like the main speed in here, and if this track is kind to early zip, he could get comfortable out of the gate beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.

R9

Silver Knott
Ohana Honor
Soldier Rising

#2 SILVER KNOTT (4/5): Has won back-to-back Grade 2 events since the switch to Flavien Prat and looms large in the Grade 2 Bowling Green. Simply put, anything close to what we’ve seen from him this season would make him very, very hard to beat, and his status as a likely odds-on favorite reflects that; #1 OHANA HONOR (7/2): Exits a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Manhattan, which was won by Measured Time in very impressive fashion. He chased my top pick two back, and while it sure seems like he’s a little better with Lasix, he’s got what it takes to get a big piece of this; #5 SOLDIER RISING (4-1): Hasn’t run since November and hasn’t won since 2022, but has shown a strong closing kick and was second in three Grade 1 events a season ago. There does seem to be some speed signed on; the question is, is he ready to go off of such a long break? Given the quality of my top choice, he may have to be.

R10

Wine Responsibly (MTO)
Miracle Mike
Laurel Valley

#3 MIRACLE MIKE (5-1): Didn’t get his desired trip last time out and still ran a very big race. He was third that day after being on the lead, and nothing about his prior form says that’s what he wants to do. His lone prior turf race this year was a win, and I think he’s well-meant in the Sunday nightcap; #2 LAUREL VALLEY (9/5): Would be far from shocking and is a likely heavy favorite. However, he’s had favorable setups in each of his last two starts and hasn’t gotten the job done. It’s logical to ask what changes here, especially given the relative lack of value; #7 SLAPINTHEFACE (3-1): May have needed his last race, which came off a very long break and only saw him be beaten a few lengths. Improvement is logical second off the bench, and he should be moving the right way late.