BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,031.75

If you’re a pedigree nerd (a term I use with endearment, because I’m one, too!), you won’t want to miss Saturday’s seventh race. There are some 2-year-olds bred to be any kind in there, including the very first horse in the program. That’s Invictus, who’s by top sire Into Mischief and out of the freakishly-fast mare Serengeti Empress.

He won’t have it easy at first asking, though. Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Steve Asmussen all saddle precocious-looking colts, and another top trainer, Bill Mott, runs two (including one with an experience edge). It’s a fascinating race to handicap, and if you’re a Pick Six player, it’s definitely not an easy start to that sequence!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Better Bet salvaged a rough day in the pick box by at least getting me a few bucks in the bankroll. Doubles and win bets involving Run Curtis Run fizzled, but $25 in bets returned $33.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll repeat the strategy I used Friday in Saturday’s fourth and fifth races. I like #7 BE THE BOSS and #1 HAVE YOU HEARD quite a bit in each event. I’ll have $10 win bets on both runners, and I’ll link them in a $5 double. Given their respective prices, one win would mean a very good day, while back-to-back wins would make for a really nice score.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Scarlet Poppy, Race 8
Longshot: Time Song, Race 9

R1

West Beach
Atomic Age
Seattle Road

#7 WEST BEACH (5/2): Is a very logical favorite in the Saturday lid-lifter and has an experience edge over most of his opponents in this spot. It’s good experience, too, as he was a solid second going shorter downstate and is bred to love this two-turn route of ground; #3 ATOMIC AGE (7/2): Is by Justify and hails from a precocious female family. His dam was stakes-placed at two, his second dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old, and his third dam also threw top sire Constitution. Simply put, he’s got every reason to be a runner; #6 SEATTLE ROAD (15-1): Merits a long look at a price given his pedigree, one that says this two-turn route will not be a problem. This son of Quality Road is out of a Tapit mare that placed in a Grade 3 event, and Tom Amoss knows how to win with first-time starters.

R2

Tinebar
Iron Man Ira
Sorority Prank

#5 TINEBAR (3-1): Showed a bit of early speed in his debut, which came going a mile downstate. That’s not an easy ask of a first-time starter, even for offspring of Arrogate that should get a distance of ground. His recent workouts include a pair of bullet drills, and I’m expecting a significant step forward; #3 IRON MAN IRA (9/5): Makes sense as a favorite given his two and three-back efforts, which were both solid. The last-out clunker as an odds-on favorite, however, gives me some cause for concern, even though Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #7 SORORITY PRANK (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and figures to be prominent early. Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in upstate New York right now, and the draw near the outside of this field should give horse and rider an opportunity at an ideal trip.

R3

Kantarmaci entry
Master of Arms
Natural Harbor

KANTARMACI ENTRY (3-1): I prefer #1A AMUNDSON, although #1 MARKET ALERT doesn’t seem terribly-meant. Amundson, though, has won three in a row and loves this Saratoga surface. His stalking style should suit him perfectly and give him first run going into the far turn; #7 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in from Churchill and seems to run pretty much the same race every time out. He’s broken a bit slow in his last few starts, which have come against starter allowance foes. A clean start would give him a big chance; #4 NATURAL HARBOR (6-1): Comes north from Parx and is another taking a bit of a drop in class. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which is a trait I value in a race with lots of zip in the field.

R4

Be the Boss
Speak Easy
Edified

#7 BE THE BOSS (5-1): Comes in off a three-month freshening for Mike Maker, whose barn is heating up. The recent bullet drill jumps off the page, and as a stalker/closer in a race with plenty of early speed, he should benefit from the likely race shape as much as any runner in here; #5 SPEAK EASY (1-1): Will almost certainly be a heavy favorite, but I have some doubts. He was scratched prior to the Fountain of Youth earlier this year and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since. Maybe he’s so talented it doesn’t matter, but this sure seems far shorter than he wants, and he’s not going up against a bad group, either; #8 EDIFIED (15-1): Goes second off the bench for Steve Asmussen and almost certainly needed his 2024 debut last month. That was his first try since October, and he rushed into contention after a less-than-ideal start. Logical improvement here would give him a shot to hit the board at a price.

R5

Have You Heard
Who’s the King
Pando

#1 HAVE YOU HEARD (6-1): May have just been a dirt router all along. He’s won two of three starts since being claimed by Mike Maker back in March, including a last-out score at Colonial in an off-the-turf event. I think he’s doing what he wants now, and that he may still have further room to grow; #4 WHO’S THE KING (5/2): Exits a second-place finish at Churchill where he hit the front in the stretch and was reeled in. His early speed is a plus, and this barn merits respect, but the nine-furlong distance seems like it may be a hair too far; #7 PANDO (12-1): Is a plodding-type who should appreciate the stretchout in distance here. Jose Ortiz takes the call, and he should have this gelding fairly close to a reasonable pace early on.

R6

Skelly
Baby Yoda
Nakatomi

#6 SKELLY (6/5): Was run down as a big favorite last time, but it helps that that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking. The outside draw is a big plus, and I think he’ll be the one to catch in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt; #4 BABY YODA (7/2): Never looked like a loser in the Grade 2 True North, which he won by six lengths during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. There’s no denying his love of the Saratoga main track, but this does seem like a stronger field; #1 NAKATOMI (5/2): Is a consistent, hard-knocking sort that exits a third-place finish in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He’s been working steadily at Keeneland ahead of his return, and he should do his best running late beneath Tyler Gaffalione.

R7

Noble Confessor
Tharhom
Chancer McPatrick

#6 NOBLE CONFESSOR (6-1): Sports several flashy drills ahead of his debut in this wide-open baby race. This son of Quality Road boasts a classy female family, including a dam that’s kin to a pair of stakes winners, and we all know how good Todd Pletcher is with first-time starters; #9 THARHOM (4-1): Hammered for $650,000 earlier this year, a massive number considering sire Global Campaign’s modest $12,500 stud fee. His dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Yesbyjimminy, and some of the workouts show that he may have plenty of talent; #4 CHANCER MCPATRICK (4-1): Sold for $725,000 in Florida despite a just-OK pedigree, so he must’ve knocked some socks off during his “breeze” at that sale. The most recent work hints that trainer Chad Brown has him on the right track ahead of his debut, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus.

R8

Scarlet Poppy
Lamorna
Aunt Nona

#1 SCARLET POPPY (2-1): Responded to cutting back in distance last time out with a good second downstate. There isn’t much other early speed in the race, and the last two works hint that trainer Wesley Ward has tightened the screws on this filly; #7 LAMORNA (9/2): Probably needed his last-out clunker, which was his first start since a near-miss in October of last year. She’s found trouble in most of her outings to date, but she’s also shown a strong late kick and would benefit from a faster-than-expected pace; #5 AUNT NONA (10-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, especially considering trainer John Kimmel’s horses tend to need a race to get going. She wasn’t too far behind my top selection that day, and a move forward would put her right there at a price.

R9

Pirate (MTO)
Time Song
West Hollywood

#4 TIME SONG (10-1): Was third in a swiftly-run race during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, which came during a time of uncertainty for this barn. The situation’s a bit more stable now, and this field doesn’t seem quite as strong as the one he ran against last month; #8 WEST HOLLYWOOD (4-1): Romped in his American debut two back before being reeled in and settling for second in his first try against winners. Early speed isn’t a bad thing to have on the inner turf, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dictate terms from the jump beneath Flavien Prat; #12 RISK TOLERANCE (3-1): Did nothing wrong in his debut, when he rallied to graduate at first asking. The far-outside draw is a big problem, and the likely price against a good group hits me as way too short, but he’s got plenty of potential and runs for a barn that merits respect.

R10

Fierceness
Sierra Leone
Gould’s Gold

#6 FIERCENESS (9/5): Gets another shot from me in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy after an absolute dud in the Kentucky Derby. His inconsistency is a problem, but when he’s good, he’s outstanding, and the outside draw in this short field should be a boon to his chances; #1 SIERRA LEONE (1-1): Certainly has the ability to win this, but he also creates his own trouble with regularity and is a closer that draws the rail. I won’t be stunned if he breaks through, but at his likely short price, I simply can’t endorse him on top; #5 GOULD’S GOLD (15-1): Definitely needs to improve on speed figures, but he’s a closer in a race full of early speed. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big price.

R11

Hagrid’s Flame (MTO)
Ez Roll
Teta’s Trotter

#9 EZ ROLL (6-1): Has been competitive at this level in his last two starts and gets a massive rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He’s never run a bad race since being switched to the turf last fall, and I expect him to be flying late; #3 TETA’S TROTTER (15-1): Won at first asking for trainer David Donk, whose first-time starters often need some time. The last-out clunker was disappointing, but he’s got a win over this turf course and attracts John Velazquez for this event; #1 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (4-1): Exits a strong second in a two-turn turf route downstate, and his best efforts have come over similar configurations. Javier Castellano rides back, which is very encouraging, and he may have enough speed to hold early position along the rail.

R12

Summer Whirl
North End Lady
Autumn

#4 SUMMER WHIRL (5/2): Charged late last time out as a 3/2 betting favorite and was beaten just a neck. Her lone outing before that saw her run third in a local turf sprint, and that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking; #10 NORTH END LADY (5-1): Showed some speed in both of her last two starts, both second-place finishes. Her try on June 8th included her working with an outside post, which she’ll need to do again here, but any trip where she can save some ground moves her up; #5 AUTUMN (6-1): Went to the front early on last time out and settled for third, being beaten less than a length. Her last three turf tries have all been solid, and she’s got plenty of versatility that could come in handy in a wide-open Saturday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,023.75

I was critical of Thursday’s card in yesterday’s bankroll section (which questioned the inclusion of a $10,000 claiming race). However, I consider myself to be fair, and I must give NYRA a lot of credit for assembling a fantastic Friday program.

In addition to the Amsterdam for 3-year-old sprinters, there are several stakes-caliber allowance/optional claiming events making up the slate. The ninth, in particular, looks more like a Grade 3 race, with several graded stakes-type horses lining up in what may very well be a prep for a race like the Forego later this summer.

Thursday’s cards are the ones that can be chores to handicap. Friday’s cards, by contrast, put a pep in your step from start to finish.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Dot’s Dollar didn’t fire in the seventh, which did indeed fall apart late (just for the wrong closer). After scratches, I dropped $41, though seeing my friend The Wizard win with a horse he owns softened the blow considerably!

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh and eighth races, which house a pair of horses I like quite a bit. I’ll have $10 win bets on #5 BETTER BET and #2 RUN CURTIS RUN in those races, and I’ll link them with a $5 double. If one of them wins, it’s a good day. If both win, it’s a very, very good day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Better Bet, Race 7
Longshot: Bustin Bay, Race 4

R1

Kahfre
Valenzan Day
Mason Mania

#5 KHAFRE (3-1): Is back at what seems like the correct level after a clunker against allowance foes downstate. His wire-to-wire win two starts back was sharp, and Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone to this point in the meet; #6 VALENZAN DAY (3-1): Is another with speed and comes in on a two-race win streak. Horses that can go two turns sure seem to have an edge coming out of the chute, and the most recent score came going longer at Aqueduct; #7 MASON MANIA (6-1): May have lost all chance at the break last time out against state-bred optional claiming foes. He comes back for a much smaller tag, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he’s shown he can run well at this level, and a return to his early-2024 form gives him a chance.

R2

Good Mission (MTO)
Generous Luva
Majulu

#1 GENEROUS LUVA (7/2): Drops in for a tag after showing speed twice against state-bred maiden special weight foes downstate. She adds both blinkers and Lasix, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., opts to stay aboard when he likely had several options; #10 MAJULU (4-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf event a few weeks ago. This is another adding Lasix, and given the pedigree, I have to think she’ll move forward getting onto the grass; #3 REALTA (10-1): Ran the best race of her career two starts ago, which doubled as her only turf race to date. She made up quite a bit of ground that day, and a return to her preferred surface means she could be rolling late at a price.

R3

Pure Force
World Record
Jefferson Street

#3 PURE FORCE (9/2): Hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts to date and may very well be the biggest price in the Grade 2 Amsterdam. I love the two-back bullet drill over the training track, and despite the only-OK win percentage, Brad Cox trainees are firing at this stand; #1 WORLD RECORD (3-1): May have been a bit too far back in the Maxfield last time out, and the rail draw means he may need to be quicker here. His wire-to-wire win two back at Churchill was sharp, and Prat sees fit to ride back; #4 JEFFERSON STREET (8/5): Ran very well last time out and might well be favored, but I have my doubts. That race fell apart up front and was against a much weaker field. Add in that the main track was playing very, very fast that day, and I’m just not sure he can replicate that kind of performance. Against this field, he may have to, and that makes him a likely underlay I need to try to beat.

R4

Occult
Bustin Bay
Stonewall Star

#1 OCCULT (8/5): Gets significant class relief after spending the last year and a half going against top-notch competition. She’s a Grade 3 winner with a Grade 1 placing, and the inside draw out of the Wilson chute is a big, big plus for what seems like the horse to beat; #3 BUSTIN BAY (12-1): Seems like an inflated price off of a race that was far, far shorter than her desired distance (and, as such, seems like a throwout). She loves Saratoga, has plenty of tactical speed, and should be prominent throughout; #5 STONEWALL STAR (5-1): Has hit the board in 11 of 13 lifetime starts and was second in an off-the-turf stakes race at this route last month. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one gets to add Lasix in what is, on paper, a drop in class (but an event that came up very, very tough for the condition).

R5

Outtawaterbury
Judge Rules
Dyna Point

#10 OUTTAWATERBURY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. I went here because he sure seems like the main speed in a race devoid of it. I’m not sure if he really wants two turns, but he does drop in class, which could wake him up; #8 JUDGE RULES (3-1): Closed well to be second last time out in a race that had a bit more zip up front early on than this spot likely will. The rider switch to Flavien Prat is a big one, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives him a shot, but he may need to show a bit more early interest; #2 DYNA POINT (8-1): Ships up from Maryland after stepping forward in his first start for a new barn last time out. This is probably a tougher spot, but Luis Saez has been enticed to ride and any sort of a move forward gives this gelding a shot in a wide-open event.

R6

Off Script
Miss Welch
Accelerating

#6 OFF SCRIPT (5/2): Possesses a massive two-back bullet drill that jumps off the page in this fascinating 2-year-old event. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance, and she hammered for $200,000 at auction last summer across the street; #9 MISS WELCH (7/2): Runs for Jeremiah Englehart, who has enjoyed plenty of success already this summer, and possesses a precocious pedigree. This daughter of Maclean’s Music is out of a mare that won first time out and has already produced first-out winner (and stakes winner) Downtown Mischief; #3 ACCELERATING (3-1): Sold for $325,000 earlier this year and is by champion sprinter Mitole. She’s got a few fast works on the tab, but the bottom-side pedigree indicates she may need a race or two (and possibly some more distance) to strut her best stuff.

R7

Dreamlike (MTO)
Better Bet
Be Like Clint

#5 BETTER BET (7/2): Had a very eventful trip last time out at Aqueduct in a race I have no problem drawing a line through. His two and three-back efforts were both sharp, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., sure seems like a clue in this turf marathon; #6 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Has run well in a pair of starts at this distance downstate and has some versatility. He closed from way back two starts ago, but was much closer last time out, which gives Javier Castellano several options; #2 VESTING (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after a wire-to-wire win last month. The connections merit respect, and he may go favored, but he sat a picture-perfect trip that day and there’s other speed (at least on paper) in this spot. He’s not impossible, but may need to improve to make it two in a row.

R8

Celestial Glaze (MTO)
Run Curtis Run
Mid Day Image

#2 RUN CURTIS RUN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but likes this route and was a very, very good second behind a stakes-quality winner at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. His running lines show a bunch of classy horses, he draws well, and this seems like an ideal spot; #11 MID DAY IMAGE (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in off the AE list but merits respect if he does. He’s found his form this season at Laurel in several races at this distance, and he should get plenty of pace to run at; #4 FAUCI (12-1): Doesn’t like to win, but is a fun horse to root for given his running style and ability to pick up a check. He’s hit the board in all six local starts, has a right to improve second off a long layoff, and is another that should be rolling late.

R9

Accretive
Zozos
Scotland

#1 ACCRETIVE (5-1): Exits a clunker in the Grade 2 True North but drops down in class and is allowed to run on Lasix. That sure seems to be the key, judging by the four starts on his page with the anti-bleeding medication, and his two wins here last summer show he likes this surface; #9 ZOZOS (4-1): Is one of many in here with lots of back class. Two starts ago, he ran third in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, and he won three stakes races a season ago. That last-out clunker raises some questions, but anything close to his 2023 form gives him a big chance; #12 SCOTLAND (6-1): Won the Curlin here a season ago and comes back to New York after a few runs at Churchill Downs. Junior Alvarado knows this one well, and the far-outside post should give horse and rider plenty of options against a classy group.

R10

Mission Hill
Film Academy
Wind Dancer

#5 MISSION HILL (5/2): Is approaching “now or never” status after three straight starts as a beaten favorite. The slight cutback in distance should help him, though, and his two-back effort here off the layoff was a very good effort. Another defeat, though, may put him on this handicapper’s “never again” list; #4 FILM ACADEMY (5-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start since January and has a right to improve second off the bench. There isn’t a ton of other speed in here, and I’m expecting Jose Ortiz to get aggressive out of the gate. Such a trip could mean he leads them a long way; #6 WIND DANCER (7/2): Adds blinkers in what’s just his third lifetime start and could have more room to improve than his opponents. His debut here was solid, and he wasn’t too far behind my top choice last time out.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,064.75

I’ve been following racing at Saratoga for almost 30 years. I’ve never seen a $10,000 claimer on a card before, but one makes an appearance Thursday.

I’m not going to skewer the racing secretary too much for this. It’s the job of a secretary to card races that fill, based on the horses that are on the backstretch, and this one goes with eight runners. However, it wasn’t all that long ago that Saratoga barely carded claiming races of any kind, and the appearance of this one is jarring.

There’s always chatter about Saratoga adding dates or starting earlier. I’m not a fan of that idea for a number of reasons, and this is one of them. If Saratoga adds dates, these are the races we’ll see more and more, and that’s not the Saratoga I know and have loved since I was a kid.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Clearly Unhinged appeared to have every shot in the Honorable Miss but never really kicked on. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the seventh, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #2 DOT’S DOLLAR, and I’ll try to extract some value out of that one in a few ways. I’ll have a $13 win bet, and he’s a single for me in $5 doubles starting with #3 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD, #4 ARK ROYAL, and #7 IN THE CHASE in the sixth and ending with #5 LA BANQUERA and #8 DOLOMITE in the eighth. Finally, I’ll have a $2 Pick Three starting in the sixth using all of these horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dot’s Dollar, Race 7
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 10

R1

Young At Heart
Mega Changer
Miss C Banker

#11 YOUNG AT HEART (7/2): Is bred to be a solid turf horse and could have a big chance if she draws in off the AE list. She needs a scratch to run, but given her pedigree and a strong series of works for a high-percentage barn, I think she’s well-meant; #12 MEGA CHANGER (8-1): Is out of the mare Megahertz, who was a fantastic turf runner in her day. She ships up from Penn National and is another who could be very competitive if she draws in; #10 MISS C BANKER (5/2): Showed speed in her debut downstate and has a right to improve at second asking. This barn’s runner’s tend to improve with experience, and such a step forward (combined with scratches that keep the AE’s out) would likely make her the one to catch.

R2

Run Devil
Condiment Girl
Mucho Mama Mia

#4 RUN DEVIL (5-1): Comes back to what’s probably the right level and cuts back to what’s probably the right distance. Her two-turn efforts at Monmouth seem like throwouts, and she should relish a route similar to the one she won at three starts ago; #6 CONDIMENT GIRL (5/2): Takes a big drop in her first start for Linda Rice, and channeling her late-2023 and early-2024 form would strictly make her the one to beat. Those last two starts, though, sure seem like a major step back, and because of that, I’ll try to beat her; #7 MUCHO MAMA MIA (10-1): Has won two of her last three starts, including a restricted claiming event last time out. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and this barn has gotten off to a very strong start this season.

R3

Golden Degree (MTO)
Idea Generation
High Stick

#7 IDEA GENERATION (8/5): Makes her 2024 debut in this spot and is a major player if she’s ready to run. Her 2023 campaign included a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Waya, and Chad Brown-trained comebackers always merit respect; #8 HIGH STICK (5/2): Comes up from Monmouth and is the likely early speed in this event. She went wire-to-wire going a mile and a quarter last season, so this distance may very well be what she wants; HOOLIE ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #1A IN TIME, a winner going long in France last year. Her form includes tries in a few Group 2 races there and in Dubai, and her back class could be enough to get her a piece of this.

R4

Unsolved Mystery (MTO)
Pallotta Sisters
Miss Bonnie T

#9 PALLOTTA SISTERS (8/5): Takes a significant class drop for a barn that doesn’t do this very often. However, this ownership group is an aggressive one, so perhaps they’re calling the shots. Either way, anything close to either of her outings this year would make her a formidable favorite; #2 MISS BONNIE T (10-1): Provides value underneath due to her demonstrated love of the Saratoga turf course. She has three top-two finishes in four local starts, and she goes third off the bench here beneath Javier Castellano; #7 ELLE EST FORTE (5/2): Rallied to finish second in May downstate and is another dropping down in class. She may need a pace to run at, but if she gets one, she should be heard from late.

R5

Pletcher entry
Masterwork
Paynter’s Prodigy

PLETCHER ENTRY (1-1): I’m not a fan of the price, but #1A UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL seems very, very tough. Something clearly went wrong in the last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, which came after a solid maiden-breaking score at Keeneland. If this one does not run, though, #1 WHISKEY N SODA seems like a bet-against at his likely price; #9 MASTERWORK (5-1): Drops in after tiring against $40,000 claimers last time out and stretches back out to a two-turn distance. He’s also been gelded since the last-out clunker, and that could also move him forward; #3 PAYNTER’S PRODIGY (12-1): Hasn’t run since January but hasn’t performed badly in two starts to date. He won going two turns at first asking at Laurel, then finished third over Gulfstream’s synthetic surface before going to the sidelines.

R6

In the Chase
Ark Royal
Shakeitforthebird

#7 IN THE CHASE (3-1): Debuts for a sharp first-out barn and is bred to be a runner. His dam’s three prior foals to race are all winners, and third dam Darien Miss is the damn of multiple Grade 1 winner Fleet Renee and Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Future Quest, among others; #4 ARK ROYAL (6-1): Is another first-time starter with a productive dam. He’s kin to four winners and has been working well in the mornings for a trainer that doesn’t always ask for a ton out of his first-time starters; #3 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (9/2): Posted several sharp works at Finger Lakes and has been stabled at Saratoga for a few weeks. When these connections ship in, they mean business, and you’ll want to watch the tote board early to see if smart money shows up.

R7

Dot’s Dollar
Printrack
Magnolia Midnight

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (4-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown they can pass others late, and exits a sharp score downstate beneath Flavien Prat. Prat sees fit to ride back in this spot, and he should have plenty of pace to chase in this seven-furlong starter allowance; #6 PRINTRACK (2-1): Hasn’t finished out of the exacta in more than a year and figures to be prominent early. His last-out score wasn’t bad, but he’ll likely have to go much faster early on in this spot; #5 MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT (4-1): Chased my second choice home last time out, and I have to think they’ll be a bit more aggressive early on here. He’s shown an affinity for this track in the past, and it’s possible a return to upstate New York wakes him up.

R8

Dolomite
La Banquera
Better Humor Me

#8 DOLOMITE (8/5): Comes off the bench for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time in her 3-year-old debut. She was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle, comes back in a first-level allowance against state-bred competition, and looms large provided she’s ready to run; #5 LA BANQUERA (4-1): Tried stakes company at second asking and may have bounced off of a sharp first-out score. She earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure in her unveiling, easily the highest such number of any horse in this field, and a return to that form would give her a big chance; #1 BETTER HUMOR ME (8-1): Ran fairly well in a four-start 2023 campaign and has been training steadily for Charlton Baker ahead of her return off of a long layoff. Regular rider Kendrick Carmouche knows her well, and she’s shown an ability to sit back and pass others late, which could come in handy.

R9

Roses for Debra
Kaufymaker
Dontlookbackatall

#10 ROSES FOR DEBRA (8/5): Was a hard-luck second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, and I’m pretty sure Irad Ortiz, Jr., wants that ride back. Horse and rider moved too late that day, and I simply don’t think that scenario plays out again in the Grade 3 Caress; #4 KAUFYMAKER (9/2): Did a lot of the dirty work up front in the Intercontinental, which was her first start in nine months. Given the long layoff and fast pace, I thought she ran very well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s once again the one to catch late; #8 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (10-1): Hasn’t finished outside the top two since 2022 and comes in off of back-to-back scores in listed stakes races. This is a class test, and Irad hops off to ride my top choice, but Joel Rosario riding for Christophe Clement isn’t exactly a bad thing.

R10

Kid Kreesa
Dakota Country
Koru

#5 KID KREESA (20-1): Is a wacky pick in a Thursday finale where I simply don’t have much of a strong opinion. However, in a race without much other gate speed, this one has shown early interest, and I think there’s a chance he goes early without much competition and forgets to stop; #12 DAKOTA COUNTRY (5/2): Drops in for a tag and may be talented enough to overcome the terrible outside draw. His last-out effort was a solid second against maiden special weight foes, and the recent bullet drill hints that he’s doing well; #7 KORU (7/2): Was fourth in the race my second choice exits and adds blinkers for Chad Brown. His two-back effort wasn’t a bad one, and that day’s winner came right back to win at next asking. The question is, is there enough pace signed on to set up for this one’s late kick?

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,094.75

Sunday was an example of a good day to play the Grand Slam. I had a strong opinion in the payoff leg and left a few short prices off of my ticket. Those short prices didn’t hit the board in the opening three legs, which knocked out plenty of players.

As a result, my $18 ticket had a $1 will-pay of about $118 to my single, which went off at odds of 2-1. By playing the Grand Slam, though, I was able to significantly improve my potential payoff.

This didn’t wind up hitting, as Rocketeer was one of six second-place finishes by top picks on Sunday. At a minimum, though, it’s a reminder about the value of playing the right wagers at the right times, even if they’re not necessarily the glamorous ones.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the feature, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. It’s the seventh of nine on the card, and it houses my best bet of the day, #4 CLEARLY UNHINGED. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on her in hopes that we get the 5-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Clearly Unhinged, Race 7
Longshot: Leon Blue, Race 2

R1

Macaw
Two Tons of Fun
Shakin the Belle

#2 MACAW (4/5): Will be a popular pick in the Wednesday lid-lifter on a significant class drop in his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. The price doesn’t excite me, but neither does this field, and anything close to his two and three-back efforts would likely make him very tough to beat; #1 TWO TONS OF FUN (9/2): Drops in for a tag after a failed turf experiment last time out. His two prior outings downstate weren’t terrible, and perhaps the shallower waters will wake him up; #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE (5-1): Has hit the board in his last three outings, all against similar stock, and figures to be on or near the lead from the jump. Flavien Prat has gotten to know him well over his last few starts, and he’s off to a flying start at the meet.

R2

Leon Blue
Army Proud
Pay the Juice

#5 LEON BLUE (10-1): Hammered for $100,000 earlier this year and has been working very well ahead of his unveiling. He’s kin to multiple stakes winner Allure of Money, and given the likely namesake (late trainer Leon “Blue” Blusiewicz), this would be a very popular winner; #9 ARMY PROUD (6-1): Debuts for Joe Sharp, whose first-out numbers aren’t great but get much better if you solely focus on debuting turf runners. His dam, Jc’s Shooting Star, was a New York stalwart, and this son of Army Rule has a right to be a runner; #7 PAY THE JUICE (7/2): Sold for $200,000 in March and has been working steadily for Shug McGaughey. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and while this barn tends to be patient with young horses, there’s reason to think he’s well-meant first time out.

R3

Malu
Chasing Daylight
Echo in Eternity

#7 MALU (9/2): Was a runaway winner here just a week ago and wheels right back first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s done well with that move in the past. Toss the two-back, two-turn clunker at Churchill, and her record looks far better; #9 CHASING DAYLIGHT (9/5): Will likely go favored here, but she hits me as the type of chalk you’re supposed to go against. She’s winless in six starts this season, the outside draw doesn’t usually work well out of the Wilson chute, and these connections have yet to get going at this meet; #3 ECHO IN ETERNITY (6-1): Returns to dirt after a failed turf try last time out. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back after that, which is encouraging, and she’s run well enough a few times this season to merit consideration in deeper exotics.

R4

Big Ego
Stanley Rough
Janssen

#1 BIG EGO (6/5): Could continue a big day for the Linda Rice barn, as she’ll saddle another short-priced runner here. He chased a much-the-best winner here last month, looks like the main speed, and should be able to capitalize on an inside draw out of the chute; #8 STANLEY ROUGH (10-1): Was never a factor last time out, but ignore that race and his form looks much better than his likely price. His two-back effort was a solid one, and against an uninspiring field for the level, a similar type of run could get him a big check; #9 JANSSEN (6-1): Looks like the only other possible speed in the race, aside from the chalk. Turf clearly isn’t what he wants, judging by the last-out clunker, and he ran second in three straight races at this level earlier this year.

R5

Andy Cant (MTO)
Sanderson
Scat Tu Tap

#8 SANDERSON (7/2): Was pretty highly-regarded last season, when his connections tried him in the Central Park at Aqueduct. The drop in for a $50,000 tag is curious, but he had every right to need his 2024 debut last month, and this barn is scorching at the moment; #6 SCAT TU TAP (3-1): Probably went just a bit too long last time out and gets both a shorter distance and a class drop here. If he can bring his Gulfstream Park form to upstate New York, he’ll have a big shot; #7 FUNNY UNCLE (10-1): Has a right to improve on turf in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. His pedigree is all-turf, and his only try on it was quite a while ago. His dirt form carrying over to the lawn would give him a chance at a nice price.

R6

Cinderella’s Cause (MTO)
Overacting
Spooky Lady

#7 OVERACTING (7/2): Wanted no part of an off-the-turf race last time out and goes back to her preferred surface here. Her 2024 debut was easily her best race yet, and further improvement third off the bench for Chad Brown would make her a handful; #3 SPOOKY LADY (3-1): Is a consistent sort that should be forwardly-placed beneath Flavien Prat. She was a close-up third last time out against similar company, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #5 SPINNING COLORS (6-1): Returns after a break of more than 10 months, and she got pretty sharp last summer before going to the sidelines. One of those races was a win at this route, and the presence of jockey John Velazquez is encouraging.

R7

Clearly Unhinged
Munnys Gold
Accede

#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED (5-1): Is 2-for-2 this season after a trainer switch to Steve Asmussen. One of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill. She seems to have only improved since a runner-up finish here in last season’s Grade 1 Test, and she may provide value in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; #8 MUNNYS GOLD (2-1): Cruised home over a much weaker field here last month and dives back into deeper waters. Her best race could win this, sure, but it’s worth noting she’s 4-for-4 with Lasix, 0-for-3 without it, and will be a very short price against some heavy-hitting female sprinters; #1 ACCEDE (4-1): Is another that has progressed at age four, and she’ll be looking for her fourth straight victory here. She comes in off of a gutty win in a Grade 2 downstate, and a similar effort likely gets her a check here.

R8

Mystic Night (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Kalik

#2 BOURBON DAY (9/2): Ships in after five wins in his last 10 starts, including a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Prat hopping aboard is absolutely a plus, especially given his history of success for this barn (one of the highest-percentage outfits in the country); #8 KALIK (3-1): Won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge a season ago but hasn’t come close to those heights since. His last outing was certainly against better horses, and runner-up Major Dude came back to win over the weekend, but this drop is an alarming one, even by the standards of an aggressive barn that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box; #11 PAROS (7/2): Draws an absolutely terrible post but is talented enough to merit consideration. His last-out win against similar was solid, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown (especially if jockey Jose Ortiz can find a way to save ground).

R9

Lucky and Gorgeous
Lu’s Redemption
Saving Memories

#4 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (7/2): Finally got to run on turf last time out and relished the new surface. She was second behind a much-the-best winner that day, Prat rides back, and any sort of progression would give her a big chance in the nightcap; #7 LU’S REDEMPTION (4-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, which isn’t as big a drop in a state-bred race as it is against open company but is still a notable class move. Her two efforts downstate weren’t necessarily bad, and she doesn’t have to move forward all that much; #10 SAVING MEMORIES (10-1): Doesn’t have the best form on paper, but was just three lengths behind my top pick last time out. Another far-outside draw certainly doesn’t help, but if you’re going price-shopping, it’s not like a three-length reversal on one of the favorites is totally out of the question.

BANKROLL

In lieu of something timely and witty (since I’ll be in Colorado through Monday), my bankroll section will focus much more on ticket construction advice.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: The Grand Slam can be a very fun wager when you have a strong lean in the payoff leg. I do on Sunday, as #6 ROCKETEER is my best bet of the card.

In an attempt to extract some value, I’ll play a $1 Grand Slam ticket starting in the seventh that goes as follows: 5,7,8 with 3,11 with 1,3,7 with 6. I’ll also have a $12 win ticket on Rocketeer as well, since it’s likely he’ll be the second choice and not the favorite (which hits me as an opportunity for an overlay).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Rocketeer, Race 10
Longshot: Kreesa, Race 3

R1

L’Imperator
Pickanumber
Abaan

#7 L’IMPERATOR (5/2): Broke through to win a Grade 1 downstate last time out (one that was supposed to be held here during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but got washed out). He’s proven without Lasix, seems to be in top form, and gets a few pounds from the likely favorite; #6 PICKANUMBER (5/2): Turned into a stakes horse overseas and most recently thumped 16 other jump horses by 15 lengths. If he brings his European form stateside for this high-percentage outlet, that could be good enough to top this classy bunch; #5 ABAAN (9/5): Is on a four-race win streak, including a few wins over my top selection. He carries this field’s top weight assignment, though, and must race over hurdles without Lasix for the first time. I respect him, but at his likely price, I’ll try to beat him in a fascinating renewal of the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick.

R2

Broughty Ferry
Enigmatic
Yo Puedo

#4 BROUGHTY FERRY (6-1): Has a record that looks much better if you draw lines through her clunkers on turf. Do that, and you have four top-two finishes in five dirt starts, and she ran very well to just miss last time out at Churchill Downs; #1 ENIGMATIC (9/5): Will likely go favored in here after an easy score in an off-the-turf race downstate. Yes, the runner-up came back to win, but that was in another off-the-turf event. Given this one’s prior history in two-turn races, I think she may be overbet; #6 YO PUEDO (9/2): Has come back running this season with two seconds in Kentucky. She’s shown plenty of early zio, and she should be prominent early in a race without much other proven gate speed.

R3

Aaraj (MTO)
Kreesa
Devil in Disguise

#2 KREESA (15-1): Has run well here twice, both times against horses probably better than what he faces in this restricted claiming event. In a race with many horses that don’t seem to want to win, he has local form and has shown an interest in passing others late. Given his likely price, that’s enough for me; #10 DEVIL IN DISGUISE (7/2): Is a very, very tricky read. He won his debut in March and was less than 5-1 in a $150,000 stakes race. He comes back for a $40,000 tag without Irad Ortiz, Jr., up, and while his best race crushes these, there sure seem to be several large red flags; #5 JAVA BUZZ (9/2): Hasn’t run since March of 2023 and returns for Linda Rice, who trained him back in 2022. If he gets back to that form, he’s got a big shot, but that’s no small “if” given the layoff and this outfit’s recent cold spell with turf sprinters.

R4

Jitterbug
Past Tense
Ms Sedona

#4 JITTERBUG (5/2): Continues adding distance and exits a close-up fourth, one where she may have been a bit too forwardly-placed early on. Joel Rosario returns to ride for Christophe Clement, and I’m expecting her to sit back and make one big run; #7 PAST TENSE (3-1): Was second in the race my top pick exits and hasn’t done a heck of a lot wrong in her career. That last-out effort was probably a career-best effort, and a repeat could see her graduate here; #9 MS SEDONA (7/2): Has had gate issues in all three starts to date, which makes the rider switch to Luis Saez very interesting. He’s one of the best gate jockeys in the business, and if anyone can give this one a smooth beginning, it’s probably him.

R5

Shotgun Hottie
Raging Sea
Venti Valentine

#1 SHOTGUN HOTTIE (3/2): Has always been a force when she’s right, and the red-hot Cherie Devaux barn has her on the right track ahead of the Grade 2 Shuvee. She was most recently a tough-luck second in the Fleur De Lis at Churchill behind Scylla, and an argument can be made this is an easier spot; #3 RAGING SEA (7/5): Won the Grade 3 Doubledogdare two back before finishing a one-paced fourth in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on the Belmont undercard. She generally fires the same shot every time out, and first-call rider Flavien Prat certainly knows her very well; #2 VENTI VALENTINE (12-1): Loves Saratoga and is a candidate to sneak into the exotics at a price. Her best races have come against New York-breds, but she should get a pace to chase and it’s encouraging that Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back.

R6

Playingwithmatches
Briterdayzahead
Whenlovetakesover

#7 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES (8-1): Is protected from being claimed in his first start since December, which is something I always love to see. Many times, that’s a clue that a barn doesn’t want to lose a horse it thinks has talent. Take out his duds over wet tracks, and that record looks considerably better; #2 BRITERDAYZAHEAD (5/2): Takes a monstrous drop in class after two “speed and fade” efforts. The inside draw isn’t a bad thing, to be sure, but this seems panicky, and while a return to his mid-2023 form would crush these, his likely price hits me as a bit short…; #5 WHENLOVETAKESOVER (9/5): …which could also be said for this gelding, too. He ran well to cruise in a starter allowance three back at Aqueduct, but his last two efforts have left much to be desired. This is probably the right level, but isn’t 9/5 just too short to stomach?

R7

Wild and Free
Panache
Running Away

#8 WILD AND FREE (3-1): Has plenty of turf pedigree on the bottom and looms large for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Her dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Bolo, and the strong half-mile grass workout on July 1st jumps off the page; #7 PANACHE (8-1): Has an experience edge over most of this field and should improve with a start under her belt and the surface switch. Among others, her dam is kin to a stakes-winning turfer, and this barn’s numbers with second-time starters are strong; #5 RUNNING AWAY (8-1): Debuts going long for Wesley Ward, which isn’t usually an angle I like. However, the pedigree says she wants route races. She’s by Gun Runner and boasts a female family that includes second dam Summerly, who won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

R8

Chasing Daylight (MTO)
Awesome Czech
Bunny Honey

#3 AWESOME CZECH (5-1): Takes a class drop second off the bench after a race that, in all honesty, wasn’t bad. She was fourth in the Wild Applause downstate in her first start since November, and any sort of step forward against state-bred allowance foes likely makes her the one to beat; #11 BUNNY HONEY (12-1): Doesn’t draw a great post, but her two turf routes have been strong and she gets the services of all-world jockey Frankie Dettori. This barn hits at a 28% clip with last-out winners, and while she’ll need to work out a trip, I don’t think she’s without a shot at a nice price; #7 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER (2-1): May go favored in here, but I think she’s very beatable. She was second in a similar spot at Aqueduct in a race that she was almost certainly supposed to win. Her speed figures are flashy, but she’s also 0-for-3 since coming to New York.

R9

Kiss Me Slow
Black Dog
Immersive

#1 KISS ME SLOW (3-1): Debuts for Chad Brown off of a bullet four-furlong drill last week. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance that morning, and it hints she could be ready to run to an all-world pedigree that includes third dam My Flag, one of the top female influences of the last 30 years; #3 BLACK DOG (7/2): Debuted with a solid third-place finish in Kentucky and ships here for start number two. She made up some ground in her unveiling, which is nice to see, and that could give jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 IMMERSIVE (5-1): Makes her first start for Brad Cox, and this Godolphin homebred has a right to be a runner. The daughter of Nyquist has been working steadily in the mornings and exits a five-furlong drill from the gate at Churchill.

R10

Rocketeer
Seeking Unity
Black Rain

#6 ROCKETEER (3-1): Comes back to the allowance ranks after fading to finish fourth in the Grade 3 Matt Winn. He gets to run with Lasix in this spot, and given that his only prior try with Lasix doubled as his first start in almost six months, I’m anticipating a career-best performance; #4 SEEKING UNITY (8-1): Has turned a corner since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez earlier this year. I don’t think there’s a ton of early speed signed on here, and that means he and jockey Flavien Prat could get pretty comfortable on or near the lead; #8 BLACK RAIN (8/5): Exits a race out of the Wilson chute where he was a distant second behind an impressive winner. He may go favored, but this is his first two-turn start, the far-outside draw isn’t ideal, and are we sure the horses he beat last time out while chasing a much-the-best winner were all that special?

R11

Shadow Dragon (MTO)
Let’s Go Big Blue
Locke and Key

#7 LET’S GO BIG BLUE (4-1): Returns to his favorite track for the Sunday finale and has plenty of potential to improve. His last-out effort at Aqueduct was a decent third, and I think he may have been a bit too close early on. His preferred trip, over a turf course where he’s never been beaten to the wire, would make him tough to beat; #8 LOCKE AND KEY (12-1): Has been competitive in all six prior 2024 outings and gets a huge rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He seemed to take to turf reasonably well last time out, and he might get more pace to chase here; #9 LIAR’S POKER (6-1): Is 3-for-4 lifetime and 2-for-2 since coming back from a layoff of nearly 18 months. Most recently, he dueled throughout and prevailed against first-level allowance foes, and of the ones with early speed, this is the one that seems most likely to be involved at the end.