analysis | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, And Bankroll (6/6/24)

Posted on June 4, 2024 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $200

First and foremost, it’s fantastic to be back. I’m grateful to the management of The Saratogian and Raketech for allowing me to do this again, and I’m excited to get back into the swing of things during an exciting, history-making week in upstate New York.

If you’re new to this, a quick crash course: In addition to selections and analysis for every race, I’ve got a section where I can expound on money management and, hopefully, parlay my picks and thoughts into smart bets that make money. If the top-three picks are Handicapping 101, this is Handicapping 201. There’s no way to give picks and analysis that pleases everyone (thanks, horse racing Twitter!), but this way reaches wide groups of people with varying levels of experience, and it’s one that we’ve seen works over time.

For the summer meet, I’ll have a $1,000 bankroll to use over the 40-day schedule. I’m treating this as a separate endeavor and giving myself $200 over the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. Let’s see what we can do.

THURSDAY’S PLAYS: We’ll head to the eighth race, where I think #1 ROMANTIC CHARMER has a big chance to improve in his first turf start against a field that includes multiple horses coming off of long layoffs. I’ll key that one in $5 exactas above and below #6 FILM ACADEMY, #7 ALL GOOD HERE, and #9 MISSION HILL, and I’ll also have a $10 win bet on him. As a reminder, bets in turf races assume those events stay on they grass, and surface changes cancel all tickets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Three Echoes, Race 2
Longshot: Romantic Charmer, Race 8

Drunk On Sake
Bookworm
Caesar’s Ghost

#5 DRUNK ON SAKE (8-1): Didn’t do much running in his career debut, but he takes a significant drop at second asking, adds both Lasix and blinkers, and could improve going to the turf. His pedigree says he’ll like the lawn, and that may be enough against a suspect group; #6 BOOKWORM (7/5): Will be a significant favorite, but I have my doubts. This is a strong barn, but the outfit is 0-for-12 with first-out maiden claimers going back to mid-July of 2022, and seeing a $150,000 purchase debut for a $40,000 tag is a red flag; #12 CAESAR’S GHOST (9/2): Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but he ran reasonably well in three turf races against maiden special weight foes. The layoff is a concern, but anything close to his last-out performance at Kentucky Downs would give him a big shot.

Three Echoes
Touchy
Classic of Course

#5 THREE ECHOES (5/2): Got a lot of experience in his debut, when he overcame considerable trouble to win at first asking. That’s not something 2-year-olds often do, and I think he’s very well-meant coming into the Tremont; #7 TOUCHY (2-1): Debuts for Wesley Ward, who’s one of the best first-out trainers in the game. His works are strong, and there’s every reason to think he’s well-meant, but given his pedigree, I wonder if he wants a bit longer than this 5 1/2-furlong trip; #8 CLASSIC OF COURSE (7/2): Led every step of the way in his debut at Gulfstream and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. It’s unlikely another perfect trip will materialize here, but he certainly figures to be prominent from the start.

Caldo Candy
Silver Satin
Land d’Oro

#2 CALDO CANDY (3-1): Has yet to run a truly bad race to this point and was a solid second at this level last time out downstate. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and the recent bullet drill over this surface is encouraging; #5 SILVER SATIN (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after graduating in a swiftly-run maiden race in April. He’s yet to run out of the exacta in three starts, and the step up in class may not be too much of a problem; #7 LAND D’ORO (4-1): Cuts back to seven furlongs after finishing second going a mile back in April. His lone win to date came at this distance, and the jockey switch to soon-to-be Hall of Fame rider Joel Rosario is a big one.

Almostgone Rocket
Manama Gold
Becky’s Joker

#5 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET (6/5): Has been extremely impressive in two starts to date, including a first-level allowance score on Kentucky Oaks Day. Unlike many others in the Jersey Girl, she’s shown she doesn’t need the lead to run well, and she looms very, very large; #4 MANAMA GOLD (6-1): Went 3-for-3 in Dubai earlier this year, including a win in the Group 3 UAE Oaks. She hasn’t run since february, but her workouts are solid enough and she’s another that could be sitting just off of a very hot pace; #3 BECKY’S JOKER (8-1): Captured the Grade 3 Schuylerville last time out in her career unveiling, but went to the sidelines after a dud a few weeks later. She’s been working well for patient connections and could be another beneficiary of the likely race shape.

In the End
Strictly Taboo
Heart of the Night

#6 IN THE END (9/2): Gets a tepid top pick in a turf sprint where I’m truly not in love with any runner. She, however, goes second off the bench and faces state-bred company for the first time, so there’s reason to believe she’ll move forward; #1 STRICTLY TABOO (3-1): Ran well at this level several times last year and gets reunited with Joel Rosario in her first try since October. Christophe Clement can get horses ready to run off the bench, and she’ll be a major player if she can overcome the inside draw; #9 HEART OF THE NIGHT (5-1): Comes east after starting her career in California and is another facing NY-breds for the first time. Her last two races weren’t anything to write home about, but her 2022 and early-2023 form is strong enough to merit consideration.

Pletcher entry
She’s Wicked Smart
Silvology

PLETCHER ENTRY (6/5): Both #1 CHANTEUSE and #1A AUDACIOUS could win. It would appear they’ve worked in company the last few weeks, and they both draw top-class riders for their respective unveilings; #5 SHE’S WICKED SMART (4-1): Ran well when third in her debut last summer behind Just F Y I, who ultimately wound up becoming the top 2-year-old filly in the country. She’s been off more than nine months, but she’s worked steadily and has every right to be a good one; #2 SILVOLOGY (12-1): Has a very classy pedigree and fired a bullet drill downstate last week for a trainer that doesn’t often ask much of unraced horses. Most of the pedigree says she’d be a top-class turf horse, but she’s flashed enough potential to indicate she could factor in this dirt event at a price.

Ways and Means
Miz Sense
Broderie

#7 WAYS AND MEANS (2/5): Exits the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, where she was fourth behind Thorpedo Anna and may have been going a bit longer than she wants to run. The cutback to a mile should suit her perfectly, she gets Lasix for the first time, and the class relief is a big, big plus; #4 MIZ SENSE (8-1): Won first time out at this route, which is a tricky thing to do, and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since she lost Manny Franco at the start of the Grade 1 Spinaway. She comes back for Pletcher here, while adding Lasix and Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #6 BRODERIE (10-1): Won a pair of restricted races in Florida before shipping to Aqueduct and finishing second at this distance. That day’s winner, Midtown Lights, is a solid runner, and this one may sit an ideal stalking trip.

Iron Man Ira (MTO)
Romantic Charmer
Film Academy

#1 ROMANTIC CHARMER (8-1): Tries turf for the first time, and his pedigree says he’ll love it. He’s by Mendelssohn, out of a Langfuhr mare, and he may not have to move forward much off of his dirt races to win this (his last-out Beyer Speed Figure of 72 is the highest number in the main body of the field); #6 FILM ACADEMY (7/2): Has been off four months but stretches out in his first start since January for very strong connections. He was third in his career debut last summer over this turf course, and he may be on or near the lead in a race without much early zip; #9 MISSION HILL (4-1): Is one of several comebackers, having not run since a so-so fourth at this route in late-August. He’s been gelded since that effort, and a logical move forward would put him right there if he’s ready to run.

Long Neck Paula
French Horn
Aoraki

#9 LONG NECK PAULA (2-1): Cruised to an easy win in her debut over 10 rivals at Keeneland and draws a cushy outside post in the Astoria. Her recent local drill was solid enough, and when Wesley Ward gets young horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #3 FRENCH HORN (7/2): Wired the field in her debut over Woodbine’s synthetic track and sports a recent bullet drill that suggests dirt won’t be a problem here. Flavien Prat hops aboard this daughter of the mare Emma’s Encore, who gave H. Allen Jerkens his last Grade 1 win in the 2012 Prioress here at Saratoga; #2 AORAKI (5-1): Debuted with a win in a restricted race at Churchill Downs, but despite my concerns about what she beat, I have to admit she won the right way. The Steve Asmussen trainee showed some grit and passed others late, which isn’t the traditional winning trip for a first-time starter.

R10

Dai Vernon (MTO)
Siskany
The Grey Wizard

#12 SISKANY (1-1): Ships in for the Godolphin/Charles Appleby partnership, which has won some of America’s biggest turf races over the last few years. Also in tow is regular rider William Buick, who’s piloted this gelding to many of his 10 career wins (including last year’s renewal of this race, the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup); #11 THE GREY WIZARD (8-1): Goes third off the bench for Graham Motion and stepped forward when third in the Grade 3 Louisville last time out. He was second in this race a year ago and reunites with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez; #3 REALLY GOOD (15-1): Is one of several Mike Maker trainees in this field, and he comes in off of a win downstate. He won the Kent Stakes going long last year, and his plodding style may mean this two-mile distance is exactly what he wants.

2023 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis And Selections

Posted on November 3, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

After a busy Breeders’ Cup Friday (complete with two live streams and a radio show!), we’re back for more on Saturday at Santa Anita. I’m taking stands against a number of horses I feel are beatable favorites, and here’s hoping a few of them pay off!

Dirt Mile

Well, we’ll start with the least popular stand I can take: I think #3 CODY’S WISH (9/5) is beatable. If this was a one-turn mile, he’d be a near-cinch. His two-turn form, though, is just “very good.” I can’t bet “very good” at odds-on in a Breeders’ Cup race.

My stands against will include #4 ZOZOS (6-1) and #9 NATIONAL TREASURE (8-1). The former has won four of his last five starts for trainer Brad Cox, who doesn’t see his horses fall out of form in big spots very often. The latter, of course, is your Grade 1 Preakness Stakes winner, and while his recent efforts have been disappointing, his workouts hint that he’s sitting on a big effort. Add in that both of those horses should be on or near the lead in a race without any other formidable pace factors signed on, and I think the time is right to take a swing.

If I’m wrong, I’ll tip my hat, appreciate the finish to a phenomenal story, and start wondering if Cody’s Wish is a Hall of Famer. From a betting standpoint, though, I just cannot endorse him at a prohibitive price.

Filly and Mare Turf

The sheer amount of back class possessed by #6 INSPIRAL (5/2) is impossible to ignore. She’s run in nothing but Group 1 races for more than two years, she’s won five of them, and her Timeform numbers are very, very strong. I think she’s going to be a very tough favorite and I won’t take too strong a stand against her.

If you’re looking for a bigger price, I’ve got two to consider. #3 WITH THE MOONLIGHT (20-1) hasn’t done much wrong in her five North American starts, where she’s yet to finish out of the top two. She may have needed the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine, where she also might’ve moved too early in her first start since May. Add in that you’re getting Charles Appleby and William Buick at a bonkers price, and there’s stuff to like.

#9 DIDIA (8-1), meanwhile, has won five of six North American races and is 3-for-4 with a second at this 1 1/4-mile distance. She draws well and has enough tactical speed to allow for plenty of options in the early going.

Filly and Mare Sprint

I think the post position draw did #1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE (6/5) no favors. The rail isn’t where she wants to be, especially in a race with so much early speed to her outside. She obviously has lots of ability, but I think she’s a very beatable favorite.

#7 SOCIETY (5/2) hits me as the one to beat. She seems like the speed of the speed, she’s in outstanding form, and she boasts the Steve Asmussen work tab I really like. When I see a two-back work that’s very fast, followed by an easy maintenance move, that’s often a sign the horse in question is ready to fire a big shot.

The other one I’m intrigued by is a big price. #5 KIRSTENBOSCH (10-1) won the local prep for this race and could benefit from a pace meltdown. She was solid going two turns, but seems to have found her niche in sprint races, and I think she could come rolling late at a large number.

Mile

Japan looks very tough in here, as #10 SONGLINE (5/2) is a logical favorite. She’s run a number of very fast races in her home country, and anything close to any of the last three races she’s run will make her very tough to top.

I’ll have two logical horses and one price underneath. #3 CASA CREED (8-1) is going to get plenty of support off of two wins in New York, and #11 KELINA (6-1) does her best running over the firm ground she’ll get at Santa Anita. My bigger-priced “B horse,” so to speak, is #8 DU JOUR (15-1), who retains the services of Flavien Prat and sure seems to be in career-best form late in his 5-year-old season.

Distaff

This race took a significant hit for me when #3 PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (8-1) scratched. She was my best bet of the day and hit me as an absolute gift at that price, given the abundance of early speed signed on and the talent she’s shown in some very big spots.

With her out, I’ll press on. #9 CLAIRIERE (4-1) seems like the most logical closer in the group. That Asmussen work pattern comes up here, and I’m more than willing to toss her last-out clunker in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. Anything close to her early-2023 form would give her a big shot, especially given the likely race shape, and I think she’s the most likely winner.

#7 WET PAINT (10-1) doesn’t seem fast enough on figures, but she should definitely benefit from the likely battle up front, and as such, I can’t ignore her. Of the ones with speed, the one that intrigues me the most if #6 SEARCH RESULTS (5-1). I think she’ll be the most likely one to have the lead turning for home. The question is, how much will she have left when the closers start making up ground?

Turf

Europe has sent some big guns over for this one. #5 AUGUSTE RODIN (3-1) will look to continue one of the classiest campaigns by a European runner this season. He’s won multiple high-prestige Group 1 races, including a few at this 1 1/2-mile distance, and we know Aidan O’Brien can get a horse ready to run here.

My other “A horse,” though, comes not from Europe, but from Japan. #1 SHAHRYAR (15-1) has back races that make him very competitive against this group. I think his last race is a throwout, as he had a medical procedure done after that dud. If we see the Shahryar that ran in 2022, he’ll have every chance to win at a big price.

#9 MOSTAHDEF (5/2) and #11 KING OF STEEL (4-1) aren’t totally illogical, and I won’t be stunned if either runner wins. However, the former has legitimate distance questions and may be best going a bit shorter, and the latter has chased Auguste Rodin three different times.

Classic

With Pretty Mischievous out of the Distaff, my best bet resides here, and it’s #8 USHBA TESORO (4-1). If he repeats the race he ran to win the Grade 1 Dubai World Cup, I simply don’t think any other horse in this field is capable of beating him.

I wish we were getting a bigger price, and for a time, it seemed we would. However, with Arcangelo, Geaux Rocket Ride, and Mage not lining up for the race, what I thought would be an 8-1 shot is now probably the 4-1 second choice. Still, I think he’s a force to be reckoned with.

Turf Sprint

This is a chaotic race with several world-class speedsters signed on. I can see #3 CARAVEL (5-1), #5 LIVE IN THE DREAM (9/2), and #7 NOBALS (6-1) all going early, and all three of those runners are talented enough to be hanging around at the end.

I can see all three of those potentially winning this, but the one I’m truly intrigued by is #9 ROSES FOR DEBRA (12-1). She won four in a row before catching a boggy turf course at Parx last time out, and I’m more than willing to draw a line through that race. Roses for Debra has enough speed to be close early, but she won’t be intimidated if she has to sit a stalking trip. Such a trip, in fact, could be to her benefit if the leaders start running out of gas turning for home.

Sprint

We’ll finish things off with another spot where I’m against the favorite, albeit mildly. I can see #8 ELITE POWER (9/5) winning this race, and I’ll have him as a “B horse” on a few tickets. However, two others intrigue me more.

#7 SPEED BOAT BEACH (3-1) is my top pick. He came off a very long layoff in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and did everything but win that race, where he fell short by a head to Dr. Schivel. When Speed Boat Beach is right, he’s got a world of talent. He’s been training very well, and I think he’s sitting on a career-best effort.

The other one I’ll lean on is #9 GUNITE (4-1), who cuts back to his preferred trip and always seems to fire. He beat Elite Power on the square two back in the Grade 1 Forego and draws a favorable outside post, one that should give jockey Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options.

2023 BREEDERS’ CUP: Friday Analysis And Selections

Posted on November 2, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

The 2023 Breeders’ Cup is upon us (and given the avalanche of bad news that’s hit the event ahead of this year’s renewal, it cannot come and go soon enough). The wagering menu is as robust as you’ll see all year long, and there are plenty of opportunities for enterprising handicappers to score.

This guide gives you my analysis into each Breeders’ Cup race on Friday. Generally speaking, the stronger my opinion is, the more in-depth my analysis will be.

Let’s dive in, shall we?

Juvenile Turf Sprint

I’m of two minds on the first of 14 championship races. On one hand, it sure looks like about half of these horses need the lead, which could result in a pace meltdown. On the other, you absolutely want to be on or near the lead going five furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita, so taking a stone closer doesn’t seem like the wisest course of action, either.

I’ve settled on #9 AMIDST WAVES (8-1), who won three in a row before a hard-luck second in the Indian Summer at Keeneland. She’s got some early speed, but has also shown she can settle just off the pace and capitalize on a first-run sort of trip. Flavien Prat signing on is also a really good thing, and I think we’ll get a fair price on a horse that’s shown plenty of ability to this point.

Others to consider: #1 CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4-1), #11 SLIDER (8-1)

Juvenile Fillies

If #7 TAMARA (4/5) takes to two turns, she probably wins, but is that a certainty? She’s going to be one of the shortest-priced favorites on the two-day program, and while I can’t sit here and tell you she doesn’t have a chance, I’ll go elsewhere with my top selection.

#9 BRIGHTWORK (12-1) won four in a row earlier this year, including the Grade 1 Spinaway. I think her last-out clunker may very well have been a bounce, and I like how she’s worked since that effort. Given all she accomplished in the first four starts of her campaign, I’m more than willing to give her another shot at what hits me as a significantly-overlaid price.

Others to consider: #1 CANDIED (4-1), Tamara, #8 ESPRIT ENCHANTE (20-1)

Juvenile Fillies Turf

My only significant stance is that I’m not sold on this race’s likely favorites. #11 SHE FEELS PRETTY (4-1) was the beneficiary of a pace meltdown in the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine, and there’s nothing saying #6 PORTA FORTUNA (5-1) wants two turns.

I’m most intrigued by #5 CONTENT (15-1) and #7 GALA BRAND (12-1). The former looks much better if you draw a line through her two-back clunker, while the latter got no pace to run at last time out and has shown a very strong turn of foot. Having said that, it’s not like I’ve got an overwhelmingly strong opinion here.

Others to consider: Whichever prices tickle your fancy.

Juvenile

Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher each saddle three runners in what seems like an outstanding betting race. I think #2 PRINCE OF MONACO (4-1) is going to drift up a bit from the morning line price, and that happening would make him the value play of this field. His pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and anything close to his two-back romp at Del Mar would make him the one to beat.

I respect #6 LOCKED (7/2) as well. He was sensational breaking his maiden at Saratoga and overcame a wide trip to win the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. #10 MUTH (4-1), meanwhile, hits me as the contender to play against. He had a picture-perfect trip in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and draws a very, very wide post in this event. It’s not like he’s totally without a shot, but his likely price seems like an underlay.

Others to consider: #4 TIMBERLAKE (4-1), #9 FIERCENESS (6-1)

Juvenile Turf

I think Aidan O’Brien has this field over a barrel. The question is, which well-meant European runner do you prefer: #2 RIVER TIBER (3-1) or #8 UNQUESTIONABLE (4-1)?

For me, it’s the former. River Tiber went 3-for-3 to start his career before hooking a buzzsaw named Vandeek in back-to-back Group 1 races. There’s pedigree here that suggests two turns won’t be a problem, and my guess is jockey Ryan Moore had his pick of which runner to ride. He lands here, and that’s a pretty big vote of confidence.

In a race where it doesn’t seem like the American runners stack up particularly well, River Tiber is as close to a single as I have on the first of two Breeders’ Cup programs. I’ll have Unquestionable on a few tickets as a saver, but most of my action flows through your morning line favorite.

Others to consider: Unquestionable

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/24/23)

Posted on August 22, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,009.25

The Wilson chute was built prior to last year’s meet for a few different reasons. It was supposed to cater to milers who would otherwise have to cut back to seven furlongs or, horror of all horrors, stretch out to a mile and an eighth.

In the opinion of this handicapper/writer, Saratoga is overusing it. I said from the outset that I hoped NYRA wouldn’t be cutting back on two-turn dirt racing. Admittedly, the Wilson chute has seen the lion’s share of the off-the-turf races this summer (LOTS of them), but it sure seems like we’re not seeing as many nine-furlong races as we used to at the Spa.

Stuff like this, and the new uphill turf course at Santa Anita, gives me pause. I like quirky courses. They’re fun. Having said that, it sure seems like tracks will literally do ANYTHING to make sure most thoroughbreds campaigned in 2023 don’t have to run two turns.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Many of my top picks ran second or third, and that’s what happened to B D Saints. After scratches, I dropped $25.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, which houses my live longshot of the day. 6-1 isn’t an insane price, but it hits me as a considerable overlay on #6 SUN AND WIND. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on that one, and I’ll key her up and down in $5 exactas that also use #3 LADY ARWEN and #4 AWESOME CZECH.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Wednesday: 1-for-10
Meet: 59-for-196

Best Bet: Technical Analysis, Race 9
Longshot: Sun and Wind, Race 5

Alterina
Cause I’m Elegant
Strange Fruit

We start off with a puzzler where I just don’t have a strong opinion. I think it’s possible #6 ALTERINA (9/2) improves second time out for a hot barn. Beyond that, I’ve got nothing for you here.

Instamatic
Adelphi entry
Detective Tom

#7 INSTAMATIC (7/2): Didn’t break well in his debut, where he was favored. He did at least do some running late for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going, and I’m expecting a big step forward; ADELPHI ENTRY (4-1): I most prefer #1A HARD PAR, who needs a scratch to draw into the field. He ran second in his unveiling at a big price, and any sort of improvement would give him a big shot; #4 DETECTIVE TOM (3-1): Comes in off of a strong gate drill and is bred to love the lawn. He’s a son of The Factor, whose offspring tend to prefer the turf, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride.

Bold Endeavor (MTO)
Kuramata
Easter

#6 KURAMATA (6/5): Had every right to need his last-out effort off a long break, but ran very well and was beaten just a neck. It’s safe to assume he’s had some issues in his career, but he’s a sharp horse when he’s right and he’s a very logical favorite; #3 EASTER (2-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and has danced some big dances. He was fourth in last year’s Grade 1 Man o’ War, and he’d benefit from a fast pace up front; #4 MAIN EVENT (6-1): Also ran in that July 30th race and set the pace before tiring late. That was his first run in nearly a year, and this barn’s been winning races at a very strong clip lately. He could go early and prove tough to catch.

Classic Mark
Complete Agenda
Big Bobby

#3 CLASSIC MARK (2-1): Drops back in for a tag after a win over starter allowance foes downstate. The Linda Rice barn must be respected, and I like horses cutting back in distance at these one-mile races, rather than ones stretching out; #6 COMPLETE AGENDA (9/5): Hasn’t won in a while but has faced significantly better horses of late. He chased the likes of Ouster last time out going much longer, and his last victory came at this one-mile distance; #7 BIG BOBBY (9/2): Is a puzzling sort coming in off of an 83-length defeat (yes, you read that correctly). The drop off of a few clunkers is a concern, but he’s run well over this surface in the past and is a contender on his best day.

Sun and Wind
Lady Arwen
Awesome Czech

#6 SUN AND WIND (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut and may have simply bounced last time out (an unlucky trip didn’t help matters). The August 9th work jumps off the page, and I think she presents real value at or near the morning line price; #3 LADY ARWEN (even): Tired in her debut earlier this summer, when she rushed up after a tardy start. She has every right to move forward at second asking, and it’s encouraging that Luis Saez opts to ride back; #4 AWESOME CZECH (5/2): Didn’t do much running in her unveiling last month, but she had every right to need that debut. She’s bred to get better with distance and experience, and the stretch-out to seven furlongs should help her.

High Oak (MTO)
Dubb entry
Sosua Summer

DUBB ENTRY (2-1): Both runners can win, but I prefer #2B OXYMORE. He owns a stakes win at this route in last summer’s Skidmore, and if he’s ready to run in his 3-year-old debut, I think he’s the most likely winner; #5 SOSUA SUMMER (6-1): Is a different animal at Saratoga, where he moved to 2-for-2 after a score in an allowance race last month. That was a career-best effort, and while this is a pretty tough spot, he seems to be going the right way for trainer Bill Mott; #9 FAUCI (8-1): Hasn’t won in more than two years, but was a good second last time out and hasn’t been worse than third in five local starts. Flavien Prat hopping aboard is a good sign, and he should be moving late at a bit of a price.

Bustin Bay
Sweet Mystery
Mia Bea Star

#1 BUSTIN BAY (even): Has won three of her last four starts, including a score in the first race of the meet going two turns. She’s won three of six local starts, and is a candidate to notch her 11th win overall in 34 lifetime outings; #6 SWEET MYSTERY (2-1): Cuts back to a mile after finishing second going two turns last time out. She hasn’t won in a while, but she can make up ground late and draws well in this particular spot; #4 MIA BEA STAR (6-1): Ran well to win going a mile downstate two starts ago and wasn’t far behind my top pick last time out. Her record looks far better if you toss her races over wet tracks, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

Vitaemi
To a T
Meraviglioso

#8 VITAEMI (3-1): Makes her second start off a brief layoff in this spot and draws a cushy outside post. David Jacobson’s barn has heated up in the back half of the meet, and she seems like the one they’ll have to catch; #2 TO A T (9/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but has also been running against higher-quality competition. The drop in class could easily wak her up, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he likely had several options; #7 MERAVIGLIOSO (6-1): Is another without a trip to the winner’s circle recently, but she ran well last time out to finish second against similar stock. A similar effort in this race puts her right there with a chance to break the drought.

Technical Analysis
Consumer Spending
Fluffy Socks

#8 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (9/5): Has never looked like a loser in any of her three local starts and looms large in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa. She’s one of several contenders in here trained by Chad Brown, and she should be able to dictate terms from the jump in an attempt to win this race for the second year in a row; #2 CONSUMER SPENDING (3-1): Comes in off of two stakes wins in a row at Monmouth Park. She’s won three graded stakes races, retains the services of Joel Rosario, and could have every chance to come running late; #4 FLUFFY SOCKS (9/2): Gets significant class relief after chasing tough rivals in the Grade 1 Diana last time out. She won a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs two starts ago and was second in this very race last year behind my top pick.

R10

Toofareastiswest
War Officer
Sacred Rhyme

#9 TOOFAREASTISWEST (5/2): Has run well in all four of his career starts and may have moved too soon going a bit longer last time out. The cutback in distance should suit him here, and it doesn’t seem like he’s tackling any monsters in the Thursday finale; #5 WAR OFFICER (5-1): Debuted with a clunker in an off-the-turf race, but he’s bred to love the lawn and is eligible to take a big step forward. This son of War Front is out of a Galileo mare, and I think he’s doing what he wants to do here; #2 SACRED RHYME (4-1): Had a rough start last time out and didn’t do much running, but his debut was fine and he’s a contender if he runs back to that. The recent Monmouth Works are a question mark, but if you liked him at 7/2 last time out, you may want to give him another shot at a slightly bigger price here.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/23/23)

Posted on August 21, 2023 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,034.25

Wednesday’s card begins Travers week at Saratoga. With it comes logical speculation, given that the 3-year-old male picture is about as defined as a kaleidoscope at this point. The winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont are set to square off, which makes for a fun race.

If you think that makes for an opportunity for a horse to separate itself from the rest of the division, though, remember something. The Travers has housed the winners of those three races three times…and NONE of those races were won by any of those horses. This most recently happened in 2017, when West Coast beat Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, and Tapwrit.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: I went against what I thought was a beatable favorite in the fifth. In that sense, I was right. However, that horse ran second and busted up $24 of exacta tickets. As losses go, I can live with that one.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: After the trip he had last time out, I need to bet #8 B D SAINTS in the sixth. I’ll have a $20 win bet on that one, and I’ll play $5 doubles singling him that finish with #4 PIONEERING SPIRIT and #8 SY DOG in the seventh (the John’s Call).

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday: 4-for-10
Meet: 58-for-186

Best Bet: B D Saints, Race 6
Longshot: Cherokee Cottage, Race 10

McTigue
L’Imperator
Jimmy P

#9 MCTIGUE (7/2): Romped in a minor stakes race over fences here a few weeks ago and looms a logical favorite in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. This well-traveled gelding tried world-class company at Cheltenham earlier this year, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives him a big chance; #1 L’IMPERATOR (9/2): Did plenty of running during his flat career, when he won multiple stakes races, and he may be just as good over fences. He thumped a weaker group here earlier this summer, and he should get plenty of pace to chase; #2 JIMMY P (6-1): Had no trouble with handicap-level foes last time out, when he jogged by more than 10 lengths. That came at a longer distance, so we know stamina shouldn’t be an issue, and he’s another that should be going the right way late.

Bustin Shout
Perfect Munnings
Unflappable Max

#3 BUSTIN SHOUT (5/2): Capitalized on a great trip last time out, when he scored by three lengths on a drop in class. He goes back to NY-bred company for this one, so while it’s for a higher claiming price, this is actually probably a weaker group; #4 PERFECT MUNNINGS (even): Is a major contender if he’s ready to run off of an eight-month break. He’s a stakes-winner that’s run up against some strong horses in the past, which begs the question, why is he in for a $25,000 tag?; #7 UNFLAPPABLE MAX (6-1): Flopped last time out going two turns at Finger Lakes, but ran very well to win two back going much shorter. I think he’s a better one-turn horse. That’s the route he gets, and he attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., when that rider probably had several options.

Jacobson entry
Bring Me a Check
Slipstream

JACOBSON ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1 MID DAY IMAGE, who tired going two turns in the Lure last time out. That was over a yielding turf course he probably hated, and his turf sprints earlier in the year were very solid; #6 BRING ME A CHECK (9/2): Was a head away from winning his third start in a row in his local debut. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which gives Tyler Gaffalione some options; #5 SLIPSTREAM (8-1): Is one of two trained by Christophe Clement and should be running well late beneath Joel Rosario. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but he got no pace to chase last time out and salvaged a good third.

Slapintheface
Mission Hill
Tony O

#5 SLAPINTHEFACE (5/2): Had zero pace to chase last time out at Belmont, but he still managed to rally to finish beaten less than a length. That was his first start since November, to boot, and any sort of step forward would make this gelding tough to beat; #1 MISSION HILL (7/2): Ran second in an off-the-turf race last time out, but he’s bred to love the lawn. This son of Street Boss has turf pedigree on the top and the bottom, and Rosario sees fit to ride back for Bill Mott; #6 TONY O (4-1): Gets back to the turf, which is clearly his preferred surface. He’s had several chances, and this barn has been cold all summer long, but his usual race likely gets him a piece of this one.

Red Moon
Kantarmaci entry
Disruption

#6 RED MOON (9/5): Drops back into allowance company after running against stakes foes in her last two starts. This barn has been sending out runners all summer long, and she might’ve moved a bit early last time out going two turns on turf; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/2): I’m more bullish on #1 APRIL ANTICS, who did everything but win last time out going a bit longer. This one-mile distance almost certainly suits her better, and she should have enough tactical speed to sit a dream trip; #3 DISRUPTION (5/2): May have needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first try since December. She gets both Lasix and blinkers in this spot, and a return to her fall-2022 form would likely give her a chance.

B D Saints
Mischief Joke
Dixie Pharaoh

#8 B D SAINTS (7/2): Boasts the rarely-seen “horrific journey” running line from his last start, and that’s an accurate description. He’s since moved to Linda Rice’s barn and added blinkers, and a smooth trip here would make him strictly the one to beat; #3 MISCHIEF JOKE (9/5): Had every chance last time out, when he ranged up in mid-stretch and couldn’t get by the winner. On figures, he looms large, but I just can’t get that stretch run out of my head, and I can’t pick him on top; #5 DIXIE PHARAOH (8-1): Made up some ground late in his debut for a trainer whose first-time starters usually need a race. His pedigree says he wants more distance, which he gets here, and I think he’s sitting on a step forward at a bit of a price.

Pioneering Spirit
Sy Dog
Burning Bright

#4 PIONEERING SPIRIT (5/2): Has found new life since being switched to the turf this past spring. He’s won his last four starts, including a race earlier this summer, and he makes a lot of sense in the John’s Call; #8 SY DOG (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but ran a strong race here last summer when fourth in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. Maybe he hasn’t stepped forward since his first few starts, but he should like this marathon distance and has every right to run a big one here; #3 BURNING BRIGHT (12-1): Hasn’t found the winner’s circle since 2021, but he goes out for a scorching-hot barn and is bred to want this exact trip. He’s got enough speed to make the lead early on beneath Luis Saez, and he could be the one they have to catch.

Rockstar Red
Sixwillberich
Mufrih

#4 ROCKSTAR RED (7/2): Comes back to turf after running third in a dirt race last time out. His two-back effort was very strong, as he ran second beaten just a head. Flavien Prat stays aboard, and this doesn’t seem like a field of world-beaters; #9 SIXWILLBERICH (8-1): Has stepped forward in his last two starts, including a last-out second at this level and route last month. I’m not sure how strong the field he ran against that day really was, but then again, he doesn’t have to run a massive race to be competitive against these, either; #10 MUFRIH (5-1): Comes north after five races at Gulfstream Park and has run competitive figures over that surface. It’s often tough for Gulfstream form to travel to New York, but Luis Saez climbs up for a high-percentage outfit.

Radio Red
Aggregation
Straight Arrow

#6 RADIO RED (7/2): Ran second in the Mike Lee at Belmont and comes in off of a string of sharp drills downstate. His record looks miles better if you toss his efforts over muddy tracks, and his last two speed figures show he may be improving with age and experience; #4 AGGREGATION (5-1): Has been gelded since a last-out clunker, which looks a bit better now given that the top two finishers both came back to win again. He was favored in a $150,000 stakes race just two starts ago, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he found his form here; #1 STRAIGHT ARROW (8-1): Has won two in a row, and the last one was at this route a few weeks ago. This lightly-raced 4-year-old has improved with every start to date, and he could continue moving forward in what hits me as a wide-open event.

R10

Accept the Outcome
Cherokee Cottage
Negra Gata

#11 ACCEPT THE OUTCOME (7/2): Drops in for a tag off of a disappointing run last time out at Belmont. However, her two-back race at Aqueduct was pretty sharp, and I’m anticipating a bounce-back effort in the Wednesday finale; #9 CHEROKEE COTTAGE (12-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut on dirt, but she’s bred for turf and comes in off of a much-improved workout. I’m expecting improvement in her second career start, and I think we’ll get the morning line price; #8 NEGRA GATA (9/2): Ships up from Maryland, where she ran second against maiden special weight foes a few weeks ago. Her two turf sprints are the best races she’s run, and Saez landing here is a plus.