BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.25

My apologies for a bonkers schedule of posting content this week. I’ve been reeling ever since my travel misadventures earlier in the week (which brought out some members of the “Andrew posted it, so it’s a cardinal sin” club on Twitter), and I’ve been trying to get my body and mind back to normal ever since.

I’m anticipating returning to such a schedule with Wednesday’s content. By then, I also sincerely hope whoever is doing a rain dance in upstate New York decides to stop.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: The 11th was taken off the turf, which cancelled my late Pick Four ticket.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where I’m not at all sold on morning line favorite #1 CATHERINE WHEEL. I’ll play exactas going against that one. My $4 plays use #3 MOST OF ALL and #5 CANDIED on top of those two, #6 MUNNY ROCKETTE, and #10 ELLA ELIZABETH underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 5-for-11
Meet: 54-for-176

Best Bet: Chalky Cat, Race 10
Longshot: Most of All, Race 5

R1

Serpe entry
Red Hot Chick
My Lion

SERPE ENTRY (5-1): Both #1 FAST KIMMIE and #1A MISCREANT can win this. The former has plenty of back class and drops down after two races that weren’t bad, while the latter comes back to turf and has a big shot if she draws in off the AE list; #8 RED HOT CHICK (10-1): Was one-paced last time out in her first try against winners, but that was a fairly fast race for the level. This is probably the right spot for her, and she seems like a contender at a bit of a price; #3 MY LION (7/2): Is a European shipper getting Lasix for the first time, which always gets my attention. She hadn’t been running in the classiest of races overseas, but it’s also not as though she has to be much in order to win her first stateside start.

R2

Alpine Queen
Sue Ellen Mishkin
Backed by Gold

#4 ALPINE QUEEN (2-1): Is one of several class-droppers in this spot, but gets my attention because she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well. The rider switch to Luis Saez is a big one, and it helps she ran big to win here a season ago; #5 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN (3-1): Comes in after tiring against a pair of starter allowance fields, and this is a significantly easier spot. She definitely wants to be on the lead, which could be an issue with so much other zip signed on, but she’s also got every right to wake up on the class drop; #2 BACKED BY GOLD (8-1): Hasn’t shown much in her last few starts, but she might be the only closer in this race. She does have form from 2022 that’s not bad, and I think she’s a threat to clunk up for a piece of it.

R3

Ok Honey (MTO)
Aziza
Tass

#1 AZIZA (3-1): Won two in a row before an off-the-turf clunker at Laurel last time out. She gets back to her preferred surface in this spot, Flavien Prat hops back aboard, and she should be prominent from the jump; #3 TASS (5/2): Found some strong form last year when she won a stakes race at Colonial Downs, and her best race would beat these. She was third against similar without much of an excuse last time, though, and Luis Saez opts to ride another runner; #6 CAFE FLEUR (2-1): Came off a long layoff to run second last time out. These connections merit respect, but the likely pace scenario is a concern for this one-run closer, and she didn’t beat much two back before going to the sidelines.

R4

Amidst Waves
She’s Fire
Gram

#3 AMIDST WAVES (8/5): Comes in off of two wins in a row, including one in the Colleen at Monmouth. This barn is red hot at the moment, and any further progression would make the likely favorite tough in the Bolton Landing; #5 SHE’S FIRE (4-1): Won nicely two starts back before not getting her desired trip in the Colleen. A repeat of the two-back effort would give her a genuine shot, and we may get a slightly-bigger price given the last-out clunker; #4 GRAM (7/2): Overcame some trouble to win her local debut last time out. This is a much tougher group, to be sure, but Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement and she should be moving the right way late.

R5

Candied
Most of All
Munny Rockette

#5 CANDIED (7/2): Debuts for Todd Pletcher off of a string of exceptional gate works. The big field may ensure we get a bettable price, and I think this daughter of Candy Ride is an exciting prospect; #3 MOST OF ALL (10-1): Makes her first start for Bill Mott and also has some strong drills from the gate to her credit. Mott runs two here, and while my third choice will get plenty of attention at the windows, this one may be the better value; #6 MUNNY ROCKETTE (6-1): Hammered for a cool million earlier this year at the OBS sale and merits respect based on her work there. The work tab looks fine, and she’s got every right to be a runner.

R6

Classy Mischief (MTO)
Memorialize
Snow Dance

#7 MEMORIALIZE (4-1): Had a very eventful debut at Colonial Downs last month, as she had major equipment trouble after a horrible start. Somehow, she rallied for second, and it’s safe to assume she got a lot out of that initial start; #10 SNOW DANCE (6-1): Ran well to be a close-up third in her debut at this route earlier in the meet. The outside draw isn’t ideal, but Lezcano rides back and she’s eligible to move forward with a start under her belt; #8 LAMORNA (7/2): Started slowly in her debut going shorter, but did kick on late to be beaten less than two lengths. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be much of a problem, and the recent bullet drill says she’s doing well at the moment.

R7

Mount Up
Chileno
Pledgeofallegiance

#4 MOUNT UP (8-1): Ran second at this route last time out against similar, but was wide that day and lost a fair bit of ground. Irad sees fit to ride back for Pletcher, and I’d be pretty surprised if we got the morning line price come post time; #10 CHILENO (8-1): Won a starter allowance at this route not long ago for his first win in more than a year. This is probably a tougher group, but the Wilson chute is a tricky route and there’s every chance he’s touting himself as a “horse for course;” #3 PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE (6-1): Was fourth in the slop going longer early in the meet. This is probably a better distance for him, and his wins two and three back were both pretty sharp.

R8

Magico
Digitize
Black Rain

#2 MAGICO (3-1): Ran second in his debut, which came over an off track at Belmont Park. He was nearly 10 lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher and seems to be training well up here ahead of his second career start; #7 DIGITIZE (5/2): Is the other half of a solid 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown. He’s run okay a few times, but the three-month layoff is a concern, and while Monmouth Park works aren’t as much of a disqualifying factor for this barn as they used to be, it’s still worth noting he’s been down there, not up here, for quite a while; #9 BLACK RAIN (9/2): Makes his first start for Todd Pletcher, who’s enlisted Irad to ride. It’s not easy to debut going seven furlongs, so that’s a question mark, but the pedigree and works are solid and he does draw well.

R9

Gate Runner (MTO)
Java Buzz
Forwardly

#9 JAVA BUZZ (7/2): Makes the most sense to me in what seems like a puzzling race. I’m tossing the last-out effort, as five furlongs is just way shorter than he wants to go. Anything close to his prior races going a mile would give him a big shot; #10 FORWARDLY (5-1): Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start since December. He takes a significant class drop to run here and may be talented enough to overcome the far-outside draw; #3 QUALITY G (3-1): Has found trouble in each of his last several starts and possesses enough talent to boast a few placings in stakes races. Having said that, he’s far from an easy horse to handle, seems to put himself in weird spots, and hits me as an underlay at his likely price.

R10

Chalky Cat
Mudville Nine
Under the Knife

#9 CHALKY CAT (5/2): Hasn’t run horribly against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag in the Sunday finale. This certainly seems like a weaker group than the ones he’s been going against, and he looks like a formidable favorite; #10 MUDVILLE NINE (4-1): Led for most of the way last time out going a bit longer and gets a cutback in distance he should appreciate here. The outside draw should help him, and the lone work since that effort wasn’t a bad one; #5 UNDER THE KNIFE (5-1): Showed speed in an off-the-turf event last time out before fading to finish third. Irad gets on for this one, and at a minimum, he should be able to be a pace factor here.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,058.25

Let’s Go Big Blue deserved to come down in Thursday’s Rick Violette Stakes. He came out and herded the runner-up several paths before edging that one by a head at the wire. I could’ve used Let’s Go Big Blue, and I have no problem saying that the DQ was a good one.

I think the majority of horseplayers feel that way. The problem is, New York stewards have let contact like this go in the past. I’d argue the incident that caused Jose Ortiz to be handed a three-day suspension was just as egregious as this matter was, and Jose’s horse inexplicably wasn’t taken down.

I’m not an Ortiz conspiracist. Having said that, there’s very little consistency coming from the stewards this meet, and that’s all we as horse racing fans want from officials. Enforce the rules consistently so that we, as bettors, have a good feeling of what’s about to happen during an inquiry or an objection. Can we honestly say that’s been happening on the NYRA circuit?

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of half of my action when the sixth was moved off the turf. The other half was blown up when Fatima’s Blessing never fired. I dropped $25.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: On a card without much else to really be excited about, I like #3 POWERFULLY BUILT a fair bit in the ninth. I’ll have a $30 win bet on that one, and I hope we get the 5-1 morning line price.

One note before moving on: Most of my picks and analysis below assume turf races are moved to the main track. The weather forecast looks awful, and I just hope whatever rain Saratoga gets doesn’t endanger grass races carded for the weekend.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Thursday: 1-for-10
Meet: 43-for-155

Best Bet: Powerfully Built, Race 9
Longshot: Western Lane, Race 3

R1

Corey and Quinn
White Chocolate
Spun Special

#3 COREY AND QUINN (7/2): Debuts for Brad Cox and sports a series of strong works ahead of her unveiling. This daughter of Uncle Mo hammered for $250,000 at auction and has every right to be a runner; #8 WHITE CHOCOLATE (3-1): Ran third in her debut at Fair Grounds back in December but hasn’t been seen since. A recent series of local drills looks encouraging, though, and the outside draw is a plus; #2 SPUN SPECIAL (5-1): Comes back to dirt after a few tries on the grass and is bred to handle the off track she may get here. She’s got plenty of speed and could be the one they have to run down.

R2

T Max
Accel Rose
Simple Sugar

#6 T MAX (even): Takes a massive class drop, and anything close to her late-2022 form would likely thump this bunch. Linda Rice’s barn is firing on all cylinders at this stand, and she’s a logical favorite; #4 ACCEL ROSE (6-1): Won going a bit longer last time out at Monmouth, so we know this distance won’t be what gets her beat. Her running style has some flexibility to it, and Dylan Davis should have a few options with her depending on the break; #7 SIMPLE SUGAR (8-1): Moves up on an off track and won over one of them back in January at Aqueduct. A mile may be more ground than she wants, but she’s got enough early speed to be a factor from the jump.

R3

Western Lane
Miss San Gabriel
Brown entry

#7 WESTERN LANE (8-1): Has a puncher’s chance on turf but looms large if they move it to the main track. Her lone win to date was over a good dirt track at Aqueduct, and I like that she knows how to pass others late; #4 MISS SAN GABRIEL (2-1): Is probably the most likely winner on turf, and I kept her in the mix for that reason. She’s been impressive in her last two starts, which were both wire-to-wire scores; BROWN ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1 FROM HELLO, who won first time out on the dirt. She had a genuine excuse last time out given the troubled trip, and she’s got every right to move forward in this spot.

R4

Stunningly
Rhiannon
Revolving Credit

#4 STUNNINGLY (2-1): Has run second twice since coming back to New York and was flattered a bit when Portage came back to run reasonably well against winners. She ran well two back going a mile, so I don’t think this distance will be an issue; #6 RHIANNON (9/2): Debuts going a tricky distance, which is never easy, but the work tab looks very sharp and she’s bred in the purple. Irad Ortiz rides for Chad Brown, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she’s well-meant; #8 REVOLVING CREDIT (7/2): Was third in her debut and showed a bit of late interest that day. Her most recent five-furlong drill wasn’t bad, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she improved enough to be a factor here.

R5

Paddington (MTO)
Crupi (MTO)
Oglethorpe

#11 PADDINGTON (8/5): Has jogged in each of his last two starts and is strictly the one to beat if this race comes off the turf. He hasn’t been headed in either of his last two starts, and I think he’ll be very tough to catch; #10 CRUPI (4-1): Broke through to graduate last time out and has danced some big dances. His running lines include some very talented horses, and perhaps the lightbulb has finally gone on; #8 OGLETHORPE (6-1): Was a distant second in an off-the-turf race last time out, but attracts Luis Saez, who rode him to victory three starts ago at Keeneland. He’s got some early speed and could sit an ideal stalking trip.

R6

Last Drink (MTO)
Dancing Mischief
Frozen Four

I’m going to be honest: This race is impossible. #12 LAST DRINK is the lone MTO entry, and that’s a large reason why I picked him on top. If this race comes off the grass and you insist on playing it, go as deep as you can.

R7

Speed Bias
Red Run
Costa Terra

#4 SPEED BIAS (2-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but has also run up against some tough customers. He was a hard-luck second in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special three starts ago, and he could get very comfortable up front given the likely race shape; #2 RED RUN (5/2): Is another looking to snap a long drought, but this spot represents some class relief. He was third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn two back, so we know he can handle a distance of ground; #5 COSTA TERRA (9/5): Has run well in a pair of off-the-turf events this meet, and both of those races came going a bit longer than this. This does seem like a significant step up in class, though, as a few of these runners are stakes-caliber horses.

R8

No Nay Mets
Antonio of Venice (MTO)
Fandom

#7 NO NAY METS (7/5): Has won two stakes races already this season and looms large in the Skidmore, assuming he runs. His lone misfire came at Royal Ascot, and I have no problem drawing a line through that clunker; #13 ANTONIO OF VENICE (10-1): Earned his diploma earlier this summer and seems like he has a big shot in the event this is moved off the turf. Rudy Rodriguez’s barn is starting to heat up, and the outside draw is a big plus; #9 FANDOM (5-1): Romped in his debut before misfiring at Ascot. However, his most recent drill is a very good one, John Velazquez sees fit to ride back for Wesley Ward, and I think there’s plenty to like.

R9

Powerfully Built
Prisoner
Thinkaboutit

#3 POWERFULLY BUILT (5-1): Ran a clunker last time out, and that effort was poor enough to where I have no problem drawing a line through it. Throw out that performance, and you’ve got a very sharp sprinter that should have every chance to run a big one; #2 PRISONER (7/2): Has found his form as a 5-year-old and has won four of six starts this season. Two of those wins were at Monmouth Park, which is a much different surface, but he’s absolutely a contender if his form travels north with him; #6 THINKABOUTIT (9/2): Rallied to win his local debut last time out despite enduring some trouble. In doing so, he beat a few rivals that also show up in this spot, and the last-out drill is pretty encouraging.

R10

Rally Squirrel
Cut the Cord (MTO)
Born Dancer

#1 RALLY SQUIRREL (5/2): Isn’t without a chance on turf but is strictly the one to beat on dirt judging by his two dirt tries this season. He romped by 10 lengths last time at Ellis Park, and while this is a higher-level group, Tom Amoss’s barn is going very well right now; #11 CUT THE CORD (4-1): Was second behind a nice horse in Dust Devil last time out and is a major contender if they switch surfaces. He’s got plenty of tactical speed, but he also doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #7 BORN DANCER (8-1): Merits a long look at a price if they keep this on the grass. He graduated last time out and found more after setting reasonable fractions that day, and his lone local start saw him run third behind Dakota Gold in a stakes race.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,083.25

The folks behind the Preakness Stakes are actively trying to move the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Predictably, this has drawn the usual firestorm of Triple Crown debate, with traditionalists going against those who believe the Preakness simply has to be moved to preserve the race’s viability.

My stance is different from…well, from that of pretty much anyone. I don’t think you change the races. I DO think you change the way horses are bred.

Thoroughbreds simply aren’t bred to run often anymore. They’re bred for whatever “brilliance” is, which nobody can define but apparently shows up a lot at 2-year-old sales where still-growing horses are asked to go all-out for an eighth of a mile over souped-up tracks. In many instances, that race, against nothing but a clock, is the most important one they’ll ever run.

I’ve talked to breeders who hate when I make this argument. I respect them, but I disagree. At a minimum, can’t we admit parts of the system are backwards and do something about it?

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: This one hurt. Lastchanceatglory ran well, but finished second behind my 9-1 third choice. As such, I dropped $50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll go to the third race, where I’m betting the August 3rd event a few favorites exit is a weak one. I’ll try to beat those horses by using #2 TIMED OUT and #6 VITAEMI on top of $5 exactas that use those two, #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN, and #7 ITS COLD IN DEHERE underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Sunday: 3-for-10
Meet: 42-for-136

Best Bet: Showemyourheels, Race 9
Longshot: Vitaemi, Race 3

R1

Grab the Glory
Run for Your Honey
Bernietakescharge

#9 GRAB THE GLORY (5-1): Has disappointed in a few starts so far but gets another shot from me thanks to the added distance, which she’s bred to love. Her two turf starts to date weren’t that bad, and assuming this stays on the lawn, I think there’s plenty to like; #5 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY (9/2): Has shown more early speed than any other runner in this field and may make the lead by default. She’s run alright on both turf and dirt to this point and may be the one they have to catch; #2 BERNIETAKESCHARGE (6-1): Debuted with a decent third-place finish at a price earlier this month and has every right to improve at second asking. She showed an ability to rate, which isn’t easy for most first-time starters to do.

R2

Tres Chic
Dark Princess
Graceful

This is an absolutely horrible race where I have no strong opinion. #5 TRES CHIC (6-1) is a top pick solely because she’s had some excuses in her two races to date and comes in off of a few OK workouts. If you’re playing this race, go as deep as you can.

R3

Vitaemi
Timed Out
Suspended Campaign

#6 VITAEMI (9/2): Dueled through very fast fractions last time out in her local debut, and I don’t think she’ll have to work quite as hard to make the lead here. She’s proven at this distance and seems plenty talented enough to spring an upset; #2 TIMED OUT (7/2): Has run several solid races at Finger Lakes, comes in off of two bullet drills, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., when that rider probably had a few options. Her lone recent run at this distance wasn’t bad, and she can win this on her best day; #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN (6/5): Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice after a last-out win at this route. As I mentioned earlier, I simply don’t think that race was a great one, and at this one’s likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R4

Shigeko (MTO)
World Traveler
Explosive Exchange

#5 WORLD TRAVELER (7/2): May benefit from the likely race shape as a closer going against many runners with early speed. The faster they go early on, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 EXPLOSIVE EXCHANGE (8-1): Is better than he showed last time out, when he may have bounced off of an impressive two-back score. Joel Rosario sees fit to ride, and if nothing else, he’ll be heard from out of the gate; #8 THREE GIRLS (6-1): Graduated against maiden claimers last time out and never looked like a loser on that occasion. She does take a step up in class here, but it’s not like this is the strongest race for the level and perhaps she’s in strong form.

R5

Chileno (MTO)
Unleash the Power
Shinsun

#10 UNLEASH THE POWER (3-1): Ran second behind My Sea Cottage last time out, and that one ran reasonably well in the Grade 1 Fourstardave last weekend. He’s been chasing far better horses than these of late, and this represents as good a chance as any for him to break the drought; #4 SHINSUN (4-1): Is a closer in a race with some speed signed on, which gives him a shot in what seems like a pretty wide-open event. He might have moved a bit too early last time, and he fits on speed figures; #5 FRONT MAN (6-1): Was a bit one-paced when fourth last time out, but won two back and has a history of running well on turf courses with some give in the ground. If the turf course is less than firm, I think he moves up considerably.

R6

Cupid’s Heart
Portage
Cuz Ur Pretty

#7 CUPID’S HEART (9/5): Ran a close-up second in a swiftly-run allowance race earlier in the meet, one where she was four lengths clear of the third-place finisher. The cutback to six furlongs may only help her, and I think she’s strictly the one to beat; #8 PORTAGE (7/2): Improved in her second start for Linda Rice to break her maiden in smart fashion. This isn’t an easy spot to face winners for the first time, but she draws a great post and could still be improving; #4 CUZ UR PRETTY (9/2): Ships in from Finger Lakes, where she’s won four of five lifetime starts and has done so in impressive fashion. This is certainly a class test, but she could prove to be fastest early and leave this field with something to do turning for home.

R7

South Street
Freeze Pop
Lucky Lucky Luke

#7 SOUTH STREET (even): Hasn’t won in quite a while and was a distant third last time out, but he drops in class significantly and that could wake him up. He’s won going two turns before, and his best effort almost certainly beats these; #3 FREEZE POP (4-1): Goes first off the claim for Robertino Diodoro, who’s been quiet this meet but can certainly move new acquisitions forward. He and my top pick are the only two horses in here to win going two turns on dirt, and that matters; #2 LUCKY LUCKY LUKE (7/2): Comes in off of a failed turf experiment last time out and returns to his preferred surface. His three-back win was very sharp, and perhaps he was just in too deep against allowance foes in his two-back try.

R8

Amanda’s Folly (MTO)
Orange Freeze
Smokie Eyes

#7 ORANGE FREEZE (5-1): Has stepped forward considerably in her last two starts, one of which was a win in a similar stakes race. She should get some speed to run at again here, and when this barn gets horses on the right path, they tend to stay there; #2 SMOKIE EYES (6-1): Has a record that looks far better if you toss her races at Belmont Park. Perhaps she hasn’t improved from two to three, but her two-turn races look sharp and she’d be a contender if she can get back to that form; #5 SILVER SKILLET (2-1): Comes in off of a win against older, but hits me as a bad favorite. That day’s runner-up is a money-burner that did so again last week, and while she fits on figures, I think she’s an underlay at her likely price.

R9

Marley’s Ghost (MTO)
Showemyourheels
Red Butterfly

#2 SHOWEMYOURHEELS (2-1): Hasn’t been seen since November, but has been training steadily ahead of her return and attracts Luis Saez. Her lone race over this turf course was a pretty good one, and she looms large if she’s ready to run; #4 RED BUTTERFLY (7/2): Has run well twice against similar company this year and was fourth behind a winner I think is a bit live earlier in the card. This barn has been cold this meet, but she fits on figures; BOND ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A PAUCILOQUENT, who needs a scratch to draw in. She’s shown an ability to close in her last several starts, and this barn’s horses are punching above their weight class at this stand.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,133.25

I’ve got one more day left at Saratoga before I fly back to the West Coast on Monday night. We all know it’s been an extremely difficult meet, for any number of reasons. I’ve said numerous times, in-person and on social media, that if something can go wrong this summer in upstate New York, it probably will.

Saturday’s events, though, spurred a unanimous, massive sigh of relief from the crowd at the Spa. Significant storms barreled through New York, and while we got a few showers during the day, the card went off without a hitch. The Pick Five seeded with an extra $100,000 drew seven figures in handle, Rhyme Schemes blew away the field in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and Casa Creed, one of the coolest horses in training, captured his second straight renewal of the Grade 1 Fourstardave.

I need to be careful not to minimize the struggles of this meet to date, because that would be a mistake. Breakdowns have happened (one of which is the worst one I’ve ever seen), weather has been an issue, nearby power lines have come down, and a hastily-announced surface switch on a big day left scrambling handicappers positively furious. On Saturday, though, Saratoga felt like Saratoga, and that’s a step in the right direction.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: It was a good day all around, with six top-pick winners and a profit in this section. Rheaume was left with too much to do late and only managed a third-place finish, but Spinning Colors won at a bit of a price and keyed a nice exacta. In total, a $50 investment returned $111.75.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the first half of the card. First, let’s roll with $3 doubles starting in the second with #2 NIKITIS, #3 SEA DANCER, and #9 DR. RAY D. and ending in the third with #5 LASTCHANCEATGLORY. I’ll also single Lastchanceatglory to start $3 doubles that end in the fourth with #4 CITY FEVER, #5 AMERICAN KNOW HOW, and #7 CUMBERLAND. I’ll combine all of those horses in a $1 Pick Three starting in the second, and finally, I’ll put $23 on Lastchanceatglory to win.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday: 6-for-11
Meet: 39-for-126

Best Bet: Magic Tap, Race 8
Longshot: Khozeiress, Race 7

R1

Exhilarate
Genetics
Clearly a Test

#1 EXHILARATE (4-1): Debuted by rallying for third going shorter downstate, and everything about her pedigree says she’ll improve with distance and experience. The stretchout to seven furlongs should help this daughter of Elate, who did lots of good things going longer; #5 GENETICS (6-1): Completes a strong 1-2 punch for Bill Mott, who also trains my top pick. She’s got several strong works and fetched $525,000 at last September’s Keeneland sale; #7 CLEARLY A TEST (5/2): Was fourth in her debut on opening day and has every right to improve off of that performance. Of those in here that have run before, she clearly has the fastest speed figures; the question is, was that number legitimate? With races involving young 2-year-olds, that’s sometimes murky.

R2

Nikitis
Dr. Ray D
Sea Dancer

#2 NIKITIS (3-1): Hammered for $535,000 at OBS earlier this year despite a pretty modest pedigree, so she must’ve impressed a few people. She has a recent five-furlong gate drill that’s very strong and hints she wants this two-turn route; #9 DR. RAY D. (6-1): Made up some ground late to be third in her debut for a barn whose firsters aren’t usually fully cranked. Javier Castellano hops aboard this daughter of Constitution, whose offspring can certainly be better going long; #3 SEA DANCER (9/2): Comes out of the same race as my second choice. She was fourth that day, and while she’s another that could certainly move forward, Flavien Prat hopping off is a legitimate concern.

R3

Lastchanceatglory
Jemography
Senor Jobim

#5 LASTCHANCEATGLORY (2-1): Has won five of his last seven starts dating back to July of 2022 and seems like a very formidable favorite here. He cuts back a bit after emerging victorious at this level earlier in the meet, and that day’s runner-up came back to win; #2 JEMOGRAPHY (5-1): Is protected from being claimed, which is an angle I’m always fond of. I think that signals the barn likes the horse and doesn’t want to lose it. He was third at this level when last seen back in February and has won 11 of 44 lifetime starts; #7 SENOR JOBIM (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while but may have needed his last-out effort. The 9-year-old was third that day, but he’s got a decent late kick and could benefit from a speed duel early on.

R4

City Fever
Cumberland
American Know How

#4 CITY FEVER (5/2): Came up just short in his debut earlier in the meet, where he missed by a nose and may have been compromised by a rough start. Irad sees fit to ride back, and a step forward with experience probably gets the job done; #7 CUMBERLAND (6-1): Was vanned off after a clunker last time out at Belmont, so I have no problem drawing a line through that race. He adds blinkers for George Weaver, and his races earlier this year at Gulfstream were solid; #5 AMERICAN KNOW HOW (5-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and showed significant improvement that day at odds of 24-1. Whether or not that was a fluke remains to be seen, but he’s a contender if he can replicate that effort.

R5

Paddington (MTO)
Operation Torch
Brown entry

#4 OPERATION TORCH (6/5): Was second behind Program Trading last time out, and that one came right back to win a stakes race earlier this summer. This field seems significantly weaker than that one, and he seems tough to go against assuming this stays on turf; BROWN ENTRY (2-1): #1A ACTIVIST INVESTING hasn’t run since October, but gets Lasix for the first time and has been working consistently for one of the top barns on the circuit. He’s a contender if he’s ready to run; #3 OUR DREAM RYE’D (12-1): Hasn’t won in quite a while but has also been running against some very good horses. Add in that he’s been gelded since his last start, and I think he could get a piece of this at a big price.

R6

Echo Lake
Zadorsky
Lady Prospect

#5 ECHO LAKE (4-1): Debuts for Chad Brown off of a few strong four-furlong drills. Of the three foals to race out of this dam, two are winners, and the dam herself is kin to graded stakes-placed mare Divine Elegance; #2 ZADORSKY (5/2): Has an experience edge over this group and comes in off of two races at Ellis Park. How that form will translate to Saratoga is tricky to guess, but the July 28th work hints she can handle this surface; #9 LADY PROSPECT (6-1): Comes from a barn with less-than-impressive first-out numbers, but she’s been working well and attracts Luis Saez, who may have had a few options in here. There’s some class in her female family, and she draws well for her unveiling here.

R7

Vittorio
Guntown
Khozeiress

#1 VITTORIO (7/5): Hasn’t won in quite a while but merits a reluctant top pick in a puzzling optional claimer. Irad hopping on is always a notable rider switch, and that two-back race at this distance was a swiftly-run event where the winner came right back to win again; #2 GUNTOWN (3-1): Improved first off the claim for Linda Rice when second out of the Wilson chute and cuts back in distance here. He’s hit the board in both of his prior seven-furlong starts and should be running well late; #3 KHOZEIHERESS (8-1): Has done good work at Gulfstream, where he hasn’t been worse than third in six career starts. That includes a hard-luck second in the Carry Back last time out, and while this is a much different surface, he’s a contender if he brings his form with him.

R8

Magic Tap
Dreamlike
Film Star

#7 MAGIC TAP (5/2): Lost a photo last time out at Ellis Park when he ran into Tapit’s Conquest, who’s a talented runner at his best. His two-back win was excellent, and I really love this Asmussen work pattern when it pops up. I see a two-back bullet and a last-out maintenance work, which to me hints this barn has him where they want him; #3 DREAMLIKE (3-1): Romped over maidens last time out after finishing third behind Lord Miles in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. I don’t think he beat a ton that day, though the runner-up did win Friday, and my guess is he’ll be the one that goes favored, not my top pick; #5 FILM STAR (4-1): Has run second on four straight occasions, including once here going a bit longer. He fits on speed figures and does have an experience edge over the two likely favorites.

R9

He’smyhoneybadger
Willy Boi
Shooters Shoot

#7 HE’SMYHONEYBADGER (5-1): Has a last-out effort that hits me as a total throw-out. It was such a stark departure from the form he showed two and three back, and if he can get back to that type of effort here, I think he’ll be a tough customer; #2 WILLY BOI (9/2): Gets significant class relief after spending most of the past two years going against much better horses. He was third in last year’s Grade 1 Vanderbilt behind Jackie’s Warrior, and he’s shown he enjoys this tricky seven-furlong distance; #6 SHOOTERS SHOOT (7/2): Goes third off the layoff and gets some class relief after running into several stakes-caliber sprinters last time out. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but like many in here, he’s been running against classy horses and has placed in a few stakes races himself.

R10

Uncashed
Gaslight Dancer
No Nay Hudson

#4 UNCASHED (3-1): Has reeled off four wins in a row, including one in an off-the-turf stakes race here earlier this summer. The bottom side of his pedigree has plenty of turf, and when Larry Rivelli gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #2 GASLIGHT DANCER (5-1): May have bounced last time out off of a two-back stakes score at Keeneland. His record looks considerably better if you toss his race on Breeders’ Cup day last year, which was probably just too far for him; #5 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Broke a long drought last time out at Churchill and comes into the Mahony off of a four-furlong bullet drill over the Oklahoma’s turf course. He showed a new dimension in that recent score, which should give his rider plenty of options here.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,071.50

Family day at the track Friday was awesome. I came to the track with my dad as a kid, fell in love with the sport from a young age, and now get to help my two nieces do the same thing. I’m incredibly tired from a long day of being the fun uncle, but that’s a pretty great gig.

It was also very cool to spend some time with so many people I’ve gotten a chance to get to know online over the years. Matt DeSantis had me on as part of a NYRA Bets video, which was a lot of fun (even though that aged like spoiled milk because General Jim ran terribly!), and my dad remarked that the stream of visitors was akin to the Pope having an audience. I always get a kick out of that.

If I’ve seen you, know that I think you’re awesome. If I haven’t, I’ve got two days left!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My key horse in the seventh was nowhere. I dropped $40.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to wait until the finale, where I think #10 RHEAUME is very live at a bit of a price. I’ll have a $26 win bet on that one, and I’ll put her and #1 SPINNING COLORS on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #2 WATERVILLE, #4 STELLA MARS, and #7 LATEST EDITION underneath.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday: 4-for-11
Meet: 33-for-115

Best Bet: Ocean Mermaid, Race 2
Longshot: Mim, Race 6

R1

Tall Paul
Quiet Wisdom
Apollo Code

#5 TALL PAUL (8/5): It’s not often Bob Baffert ships east for something other than a stakes race, but he’s got a promising NY-bred that fits this condition, so here we go. He debuted running third at Del Mar, and any sort of a step forward will make him tough to beat; #8 QUIET WISDOM (4-1): Seems the most logical of the first-time starters. The Todd Pletcher trainee draws a cushy outside post, comes in off of a bullet drill downstate, and has every right to be a runner; #3 APOLLO CODE (4-1): Was second beaten a neck in his unveiling at Monmouth Park. He adds blinkers for this one and has every right to improve at second asking (though he probably has to in what seems like a loaded field for the level).

R2

Ocean Mermaid
Three Diamonds entry
Glacial Power

#7 OCEAN MERMAID (8/5): Debuted running second in a $100,000 stakes race at Gulfstream, one that had a trip to Royal Ascot on the line. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one was nearly a half-dozen lengths clear of the third-place finisher; THREE DIAMONDS ENTRY (5-1): I prefer #1A BETTER LUCK, who’s bred up and down for turf. This barn has already won several times at this stand, and the last few workouts from the gate seem decent enough; #8 GLACIAL POWER (10-1): Rallied to be fourth in his debut despite losing all chance at the break that day. I like it when a first-time starter shows an ability to make up ground late. He did that, and I wouldn’t ignore him in your vertical exotics wagers.

R3

Sa Foradada
Mursal
Freudian

#2 SA FORADADA (3-1): Has run second five times in a row, but was flattered when the last-out winner came right back to win again. She didn’t have the easiest of trips that afternoon and might benefit from stretching back out to a one-mile trip; #6 MURSAL (4-1): Completes a formidable 1-2 punch for Rick Dutrow and was third in the race my top pick exits. She’ll likely be up close early and might sit an ideal stalking trip just behind what figures to be a solid pace; #3 FREUDIAN (5/2): Got pretty good at Aqueduct earlier this year, where she won two in a row before a pair of failed turf experiments. Her last-out second at Monmouth was fine, but I think this field might be a bit tougher, and the morning line price hits me as an underlay.

R4

One Giant Leap
Kupp
Dangerous Ride

#6 ONE GIANT LEAP (2-1): Has won two in a row and comes in off of a freshening for Wesley Ward. He’s been gelded since his most recent effort, which was a sharp victory against $50,000 claimers at Keeneland, and this field might be a bit weaker; #5 KUPP (4-1): Has won two in a row and ships in for Ron Moquett to run in this spot. The two races he exits came back pretty fast on figures, and I like that he sat back a bit last time out and showed some versatility; #1 DANGEROUS RIDE (6-1): Has come up against a bunch of really strong fields in the past and drops to the weakest level he’s ever run at. He’s got some early speed and could be the one they have to catch turning for home.

R5

Deterministic
Informed Patriot
Eliminate

#5 DETERMINISTIC (5-1): Hammered for $625,000 at Keeneland last year and sports a work tab with several very strong drills over the Oklahoma training track. Debuting going seven furlongs isn’t an easy ask, but only one of these horses has experience and he’s bred to want this trip; #8 INFORMED PATRIOT (6-1): Sports a few strong five-furlong workouts and has the Asmussen work tab I love to see, with a strong two-back work followed by a maintenance move. The outside draw should be a plus, and we might get a bit of a price here, too; #1 ELIMINATE (9/5): Has every right to be a runner and comes in off of a series of strong drills for Todd Pletcher. My hesitation is that none of those workouts came at longer than four furlongs, and the rail draw isn’t ideal. Still, he’s absolutely a contender, even if my reservations mean I won’t take him on top at a short price.

R6

Richies Princess
Mim
Nolita

#11 RICHIES PRINCESS (7/2): Debuts here for Larry Rivelli, who doesn’t run many on this circuit but has a NY-bred that fits the condition. The lone local drill was a lights-out move on August 5th, and this seems like a pretty soft spot for the level; #9 MIM (8-1): Gets Lasix for the first time and had the second-fastest work behind my top pick on that morning last week. She goes third off the bench here and could be sitting on a bigger effort at a square price; #2 NOLITA (5-1): Debuted by rallying to finish third in the mud at Belmont and could improve off of that effort. The rail draw is a concern given how she started that day, but she’s got a chance to graduate at second asking with a smooth trip.

R7

Obrigada (MTO)
Love Reigns
Stone Silent

#8 LOVE REIGNS (5/2): Has a record that looks far better if you draw a line through her clunker on Breeders’ Cup Day last year. She doesn’t run a whole lot, but on her best day, she’s an extremely talented filly, and she looms large in the Galway; #9 STONE SILENT (9/2): Seems like the main speed in a rare turf sprint that’s otherwise pretty light on it. Her last-out score in Indiana was very sharp, and her game plan seems pretty straightforward; #4 LOVE APPEALS (6-1): Had a genuine excuse last time out, when she blew the break against several of these at Monmouth and still rallied to finish third by just a neck. Her early-2023 races were sharp, and she’s a contender if the race sets up for a closer.

R8

Rhyme Schemes
Haul
Edified

#6 RHYME SCHEMES (4/5): Is an obvious favorite given his impressive last-out score at Ellis Park, where he earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. If he can run back to that performance, he’s going to be very tough to beat in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special; #4 HAUL (3-1): Stalked and pounced to win his debut last month at Belmont and makes a logical step up into stakes company. Pletcher and Ortiz must be respected, and the recent local works look pretty sharp; #5 EDIFIED (7/2): Won at first asking going six furlongs, which isn’t usually something offspring of Tapit are ready to do. Everything says he’ll get better with more distance and experience, so perhaps improvement is in the cards here.

R9

Casa Creed
Emmanuel
Annapolis

#6 CASA CREED (7/5): Has probably turned into the top turf horse on the East Coast and is attempting to win the Grade 1 Fourstardave for the second year in a row. He absolutely loves this turf course, comes in off of a win in the Grade 3 Kelso, and seems ready to put forth another strong effort; #1 EMMANUEL (3-1): Rallied from last to first to win the Grade 3 Poker downstate and comes back to two turns here. He’s won three graded stakes this year and has more tactical speed than he showed last time out; #4 ANNAPOLIS (8/5): May be the shorter-priced Pletcher, but I’ve got some doubts. His second-place finish behind my top pick wasn’t bad, but he’s a grinding type that likes very firm going. That’s probably not the turf course or setup he’ll get on Saturday afternoon.

R10

Ice Road
Cicciobello
Forrest City

Being honest? Other than thinking #10 ICE ROAD (8-1) may get a favorable setup as a closer in a race full of speed, I’ve got no strong lean here. If you’re playing, go as deep as you can.

R11

Charge Nurse (MTO)
Rheaume
Spinning Colors

#10 RHEAUME (6-1): Won first time out and has since mostly been going marathon distances. I think this distance might suit him, and I’m willing to give him one more shot. The outside draw on the inner turf isn’t ideal, but this seems like a soft spot for the level and we might get the morning line price; #1 SPINNING COLORS (8-1): Graduated last time out, tries winners for the first time, and probably doesn’t have to be too much to make it two in a row. She’s been gradually stretched out in distance, and it’s possible she’s now doing what she wants to do; #4 STELLA MARS (5-1): Has won two in a row after a long drought and popped at a price last month downstate. I’m not quite sure two turns is what she really wants, but it’s also possible she’s in career-best form and is sitting on another big effort.