analysis | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/7/22)

Posted on August 5, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $952.95

I’m making an executive decision here. I’m typing my content for Sunday on Friday night out here in California before going back to packing boxes ahead of a move. Between Saturday’s bankroll blurb being a late Pick Four play on a loaded card and the uncertainties moving brings, I’m hammering this out now so I don’t leave my long-suffering editor on the hook on deadline.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: The post-deadline update, unfortunately, isn’t a positive one. Matareya losing as an odds-on favorite knocked out a bunch of Pick Four tickets, mine included. After scratches, I dropped $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got two tickets I’ll punch in hopes of finishing out the week with a bang. I’ll start $5 doubles in the fifth with #1 JUST AN ANGEL and #5 TRIBAL QUEEN, ones that finish with #9 DELIGHT as a single in the sixth. Additionally, in the eighth, I’ll play a $5 win ticket on #8 PORTILLA, and use that one in $3 exactas above and below #4 EMPIRE HOPE and #5 COLORFUL MISCHIEF.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Goodnight Olive, Race 3
Longshot: Portilla, Race 8

Talkin Pharoah
Certified Loverboy
Chiringo

#8 TALKIN PHAROAH: Ran very well in his debut, where he finished a stubborn second at Keeneland after dueling through solid fractions. Being by American Pharoah, he should love the turf, and the July 19th bullet drill in Kentucky jumps off the page; #7 CERTIFIED LOVERBOY: Flashed brief speed in his unveiling at Belmont Park and is another going dirt-to-turf for his second lifetime start. He’s by Mendelssohn, out of a Malibu Moon mare, and has every right to relish the lawn; #3 CHIRINGO: Hammered for $260,000 earlier this year and has been training forwardly for George Weaver, whose barn has started to heat up this week. Javier Castellano has been making the most of his mounts this season, so seeing him aboard this one is encouraging.

Critical Threat
Blue Jays
Majestic Tiger

#1 CRITICAL THREAT: Was claimed for double today’s tag last time out, but that doesn’t concern me given the aggressive nature of these connections (especially when it comes to this meet). He has several one-mile races on his sheet from earlier this year at Gulfstream that are very good, and repeats of those races would make him tough; #3 BLUE JAYS: Takes a similar drop for the same barn, one that looks to have the rest of this field over a barrel. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but he attracts Luis Saez and could appreciate the shallower waters; #5 MAJESTIC TIGER: Came from well back to be beaten just a neck going seven furlongs here earlier this summer. He’s run well at a mile in the past, and he’d benefit from several of these challenging one another out of the Wilson chute.

Goodnight Olive
Liberty M D
Dr B

#2 GOODNIGHT OLIVE: Has won three races in a row and has not been tested at all during that stretch. She did sit a perfect trip last time out, but she’s also pretty flexible and doesn’t need an easy lead in order to run well. If she moves forward second off the bench, I think she’ll crush this field; #5 LIBERTY M D: Has a record that looks far better if you toss her clunker in last year’s Grade 3 Shuvee going a two-turn route she clearly didn’t like. She rallied to win last time out in a race that fell apart late, and this is another spot that seems heavy on early zip; #4 DR B: Has a ton of back class and ships up from Parx for a barn that’s proven dangerous when it shows up. She makes her third start off the bench here, and she exits a fourth-place finish in a stakes race at Monmouth Park.

Naughty Gal
Promise of Hope
Sabra Tuff

#2 NAUGHTY GAL: Broke her maiden in runaway fashion and seems well-meant heading into the Grade 3 Adirondack. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and two of the top three finishers in her June debut also graduated next time out; #3 PROMISE OF HOPE: Won first time out in professional fashion and has been working well here for Tom Amoss, whose barn is due to get going. She’s bred to get better with experience and distance, and I’m expecting her to fire here; #4 SABRA TUFF: Went wire-to-wire in her debut before breaking last in a stakes race at Churchill. Despite the wildly-different setup, she rallied to finish a decent second that day, so there may be plenty of untapped potential here.

Just an Angel
Tribal Queen
Peace Cruiser

#1 JUST AN ANGEL: Did very little wrong in her debut, where she dueled through legitimate fractions before settling for second. That day’s third-place finisher won the race declared a no-contest a few weeks ago, and Steve Asmussen trainees tend to move forward considerably with experience; #5 TRIBAL QUEEN: Finished second in her debut as the 7/5 favorite, but I’m willing to give her another shot. Her last two workouts are exceptional, Javier Castellano rides back for Tony Dutrow, and that experience should help given this quirky seven-furlong route; #8 PEACE CRUISER: Sports a pretty flashy work tab for connections that don’t often rush horses along. She sold for $180,000 this past May, and while seven furlongs is a tough trip for first-time starters, it’s possible she’s ready to navigate it.

Delight
Gifted
Pink Hue

#9 DELIGHT: Was all but eliminated at the start of her debut, but she stayed interested enough to salvage third money. Her pedigree says stretching out to two turns won’t be an issue, and if she gets clear sailing this time around, I’m expecting a big performance; #3 GIFTED: Has every right to be a strong runner for an ownership group that’s excelled with homebreds. She’s by Tapit, out of a mare that was Grade 1-placed at two, and has a female family that includes champion Dreaming of Anna, the dam of sire Fast Anna (among others). Bill Mott’s numbers with firsters are just so-so, but ignore this one at your own peril; #4 PINK HUE: Figures to take money in her debut for Chad Brown, and for good reason. She’s a three-quarters sister to Group 1-placed turf sprinter Man of Promise, and her dam is kin to a pair of stakes winners as well.

McKulick
With The Moonlight
Walkathon

#2 MCKULICK: Has never run a poor race and put forth a career-best effort to win the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last month. She did so rating behind a moderate early pace, and given that this barn has half the six-horse field in this Grade 3 Saratoga Oaks, I’m expecting one of her barn buddies to go early; #3 WITH THE MOONLIGHT: Shipped across the Atlantic and ran second to McKulick that day. William Buick sticks around for the mount, and he piloted her to a very impressive score in her 3-year-old debut this past spring at Newmarket; #4 WALKATHON: Comes in on a three-race win streak and bested my top pick in the Grade 3 Regret. That was a quirky turf course that Churchill Downs has since stopped running on, but there’s no denying the progress she’s made since being switched to the grass by Ian Wilkes earlier this year.

Portilla
Colorful Mischief
Empire Hope

#8 PORTILLA: Ran a big race in her 4-year-old debut, when she battled through the stretch to just miss at Churchill. That day’s third-place finisher came right back to win at Horseshoe Indiana, and I think this one figured some things out in her time away from the races. A move forward gives her a big chance at a nice price; #5 COLORFUL MISCHIEF: Tried winners and two turns for the first time a few weeks ago and settled for third money. She cuts back to one turn and won at this distance two back over an impressive next-out winner; #4 EMPIRE HOPE: Won at first asking for Chad Brown and steps up in class. Second-out improvement is never out of the question with this barn, but her lone race to date didn’t come back with the best speed figures. I think she’ll need to move forward considerably, and that I’ll need more value than I’m likely to get.

Plum Ali
Love And Thunder
Jouster

#4 PLUM ALI: Chased some very nice fillies last time out when fourth in the Grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine, which boasts a one-turn mile. This horse’s best recent efforts have come around two-turn configurations, including a score in a similar-level stakes race at Aqueduct in April; #1 LOVE AND THUNDER: Runs the same race every time out, it seems, and it wouldn’t be stunning if her usual effort got her the money here. However, her running lines indicate she regularly finds trouble, and the rail draw on the inner turf course isn’t kind to horses like this. Still, if I’m asked to take a short price, I prefer this one to…; #5 JOUSTER: …who did run well to win the Perfect Sting but did so with a picture-perfect trip. Prior to that effort, she hadn’t won in more than a year. It’s possible she’s moved forward, but I just can’t stomach the short price she’ll likely be come post time.

R10

Digital Software
Merci
Skylander

#1 DIGITAL SOFTWARE: Comes back off a long layoff and is protected from being claimed, which is one of my favorite angles in racing. It hints at some confidence from the barn, and this one has run well here in the past. He’s clearly had his issues, but if Chad Brown’s got him going the right way, the 4-1 morning line could be an overlay; #10 MERCI: Takes a big drop in class and keeps Joel Rosario, which are both noteworthy ahead of the Sunday finale. He fits on figures, but Christophe Clement has won with just one of his last 10 “allowance to claiming” droppers on this circuit since July of 2020; #13 SKYLANDER: Needs a scratch to draw in off the also-eligible list but deserves a long look if he does. He’s never run for a tag before, and his last-out effort was a dirt allowance race won by graded stakes winner Keepmeinmind. This is a far, far softer spot, and he’s a contender if he’s allowed to run.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/6/22)

Posted on August 4, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $982.95

Two things: First, I had a blast doing a guest appearance Thursday night on the HHH Racing Podcast. We went through the Saturday late Pick Five, and all three of us took some pretty strong stances along the way. It’s always fun talking horses with passionate people!

Also, Saturday’s a special day at the track for reasons other than the Whitney. The 10th annual Saratoga Stumble, helmed by our very own Sam Hollingsworth, descends upon the Spa for mayhem, debauchery, hijinks, and shenanigans. One of these years, my annual trip east will align with it. If you’re partaking in the festivities, have fun and be safe!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Lil Commissioner scratching unfortunately cancelled my Grand Slam play.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late Pick Four and try to extract some value out of #1 MATAREYA in the Grade 1 Test. My primary, 50-cent ticket starts in the ninth and goes as follows: 1 with 4,6 with 2,4,5,6,10 with 1,4,5,7,10. Additionally, I’ll play a skinnier, $1 ticket that goes like this: 1 with 6 with 4,10 with 1,4,5,7,10.

TOTAL WAGERED: $35.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Matareya, Race 9
Longshot: Conquist, Race 12

Mullinger
Alexis Zorba
Battle of Normandy

#4 MULLINGER: Almost certainly needed his debut, and this two-turn turf route should be right up his street. His pedigree screams turf, and Bill Mott trainees tend to move forward considerably at second asking; #2 ALEXIS ZORBA: Was one-paced in his U.S. debut and ran like a horse that wants more ground. He gets it here, John Velazquez sees fit to ride back, and blinkers going on is noteworthy; #7 BATTLE OF NORMANDY: Hammered for $500,000 last summer and is bred to be any kind. His dam was a multiple stakes winner on turf, so this could be right up his street, but it’s not easy to go long at first asking and this rider doesn’t team up with this barn much, which is curious.

She Caught My Eye
Toosweettobesour
Tekila

#4 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE: Didn’t do much running in her debut going two turns over Turfway Park’s synthetic surface. She comes back for Bill Mott, adds Lasix, and sports a recent half-mile drill at Belmont that indicates there may be some talent here; #7 TOOSWEETTOBESOUR: Was second for a slightly lower tag downstate and may be figuring things out midway through her 3-year-old season. I’m not sure we’ll get the 12-1 morning line price, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives her a chance to spring a mild upset; #8 TEKILA: Goes out for a barn on an epic cold streak, but sure seems like the controlling speed and could lead them a long way. That could make him comfortable in a race with several horses that don’t seem interested in passing others.

Khali Magic
Pretty Clever
Mosienko

#2 KHALI MAGIC: Rallied from off the pace to win going away earlier this season and could get the exact same closer-friendly setup here. He hasn’t run a poor race on dirt in more than a year, and her usual effort would make her tough to beat; #5 PRETTY CLEVER: Misfired in the same race my top pick exits, but she has enough back form for me to give her a shot. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and I think she could absolutely clunk up for a piece of it; #7 MOSIENKO: Was second behind my top pick last time out and worked hard to make the early lead. She’s not one-dimensional, though, and the favorable draw should give returning rider Luis Saez plenty of options out of the gate.

Swiftsure (MTO)
Good Governance
Dubb entry

#2 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Looms large in his first start since February for powerhouse connections. He sports a pair of graded stakes placings over this turf course and is a real handful when he’s right; DUBB ENTRY: Both #1 EYES ON TARGET and #1A DREAM WORKS are live here. The former hasn’t run a bad race since being claimed by Mike Maker in December, and the latter kept strong company overseas and has a right to be a good one for a barn that’s as good as any with European invaders; #8 TURN OF EVENTS: Hasn’t run a bad one in a very long time and comes in off of a nice win going two turns at Monmouth Park in her 2022 debut. Jose Ortiz knows this one well, and she’s got a win and a second in two local outings.

Somelikeithotbrown
Public Sector
Sifting Sands

#8 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Has loved Saratoga for a very long time, ever since he won the infamous maiden race run at the long distance several years ago (never forget!). His tactical speed is a gigantic plus, and he shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast as he ran last time out at Horseshoe Indiana, when he was run down by the talented Ivar; #1 PUBLIC SECTOR: Has won three of four local starts and checked in third in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple earlier this summer. It’s fair to wonder, however, if he’s moved forward off of a strong 3-year-old campaign, and he may need to in order to win this tough edition of the Lure; #7 SIFTING SANDS: Represents the second half of a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown and exits an optional claiming score downstate. That day’s runner-up came back to win on Thursday, and this one won here twice last season at overlaid prices.

Repole entry
Disarm
Perform

REPOLE ENTRY: Both of these runners can win, but I probably prefer #1A POINT PROVEN, who’s been training lights-out ahead of his debut. This son of Gun Runner is a half-brother to a Grade 3 winner, so there’s class on both sides of the pedigree, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., cannot be ignored; #2 DISARM: Draws a tricky inside post but ran into eventual Sanford winner Mo Strike in his debut and should welcome the added distance he gets here. This barn’s runners tend to improve with experience, and he showed professionalism rallying past horses in that unveiling; #3 PERFORM: Held second behind a much-the-best winner in his debut for a barn that doesn’t prioritize first-out success. The recent four-furlong drill over the Oklahoma track jumps off the page, and he’s another that could improve with more distance at second asking.

War Like Goddess
Virginia Joy
Flanigan’s Cove

#6 WAR LIKE GODDESS: Is a special turf marathoner that looms very large in her attempt at a repeat in the Grade 2 Glens Falls. Her lone start this season was a win in the Bewitch where she could’ve been clear by much, much more, and her best race crushes these; #2 VIRGINIA JOY: Was a close-up fourth in the Grade 1 New York behind Bleecker Street and represents the biggest threat to the overwhelming favorite. She won a Grade 2 by 14 lengths two starts ago and gets a massive jockey switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., who piloted her to a Grade 3 score back in March; #4 FLANIGAN’S COVE: Merits a long look in the vertical exotics at a big price. She has not run a poor race since being stretched out to marathon distances last summer, Luis Saez rides back, and she’d benefit from a lively pace scenario.

Saint Tapit
Perfect Munnings
Osbourne

#8 SAINT TAPIT: Ran to his lofty pedigree with an impressive debut score at Belmont in late-June. He tries winners for the first time in a tough spot, but that first-out 93 Beyer Speed Figure is a big one, and any forward movement would make him a formidable favorite; #1 PERFECT MUNNINGS: Goes second off the bench for Todd Pletcher and ran a big race at this route last summer, when he romped by nearly six lengths and earned a 92 Beyer. He had every right to need his 2022 debut, and I’m expecting a move forward at a bit of a price; #9 OSBOURNE: Hasn’t won in a while but has been competitive against good groups and was second in a similar seven-furlong race at Churchill Downs. Irad Ortiz, Jr., lands here when he almost certainly had multiple options, and that’s encouraging.

Matareya
Chi Town Lady
Wish You Well

#1 MATAREYA: Looks like the class of the field in the Grade 1 Test, where she’ll look for her fifth straight victory. That stretch includes three consecutive graded stakes wins, one of which was the Grade 1 Acorn, and I think she’ll get out early and prove very tough to catch; #7 CHI TOWN LADY: Seems a bit slow on figures, but also hits me as one of this race’s few closers in a race full of horses that want to go early. Joel Rosario should be able to take her back and make one run, and that could allow her to clunk up for a piece of it; #4 WISH YOU WELL: Looked like a future star when winning her debut and ran too poorly to be true last time out. She’s been working very well here for a barn that’s starting to get going, and it wouldn’t be a shock if she was well-meant here.

R10

Life Is Good
Olympiad
Hot Rod Charlie

#6 LIFE IS GOOD: Simply looks much faster than the rest of the field set to go postward in an outstanding renewal of the Grade 1 Whitney. If he’s able to clear the field early from his outside post, I think he gets very comfortable and proves very, very difficult to reel in; #4 OLYMPIAD: Has won five straight, including an impressive score in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster last time out. If another runner goes with Life Is Good and he sits his preferred stalking trip, he may benefit and prove tough to fend off; #2 HOT ROD CHARLIE: Adds blinkers after coming up maddeningly short in his comeback race at Monmouth Park. He’s got some “hang” to him, and he has issues passing others late, but he’s also shown an abundance of talent when he puts it all together.

R11

Stone Age
Nations Pride
Annapolis

#10 STONE AGE: Was rated very far behind a slow pace in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby and should sit a far better trip in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby. This horse was 7/2 in the Epsom Derby, one of Europe’s classic races, and I’m expecting a step forward given what should be a far friendlier race shape; #4 NATIONS PRIDE: Was second in the Belmont Derby, beaten less than a length by a loose-on-the-lead horse that stole the race. Like my top pick, he should benefit from a faster pace, one he can sit off of beneath regular pilot William Buick; #6 ANNAPOLIS: Stretches out for this event after cruising home in the one-mile Manila at Belmont. This distance is a genuine question mark, but he’s moving forward at the right time for Todd Pletcher, and if he wants this trip, he’ll have every shot to rally for the money.

R12

Walk Em Down
Action Jackson
Conquist

#7 WALK EM DOWN: Debuts in a spot that seems to lack teeth and is bred to be a runner. His dam won a stakes race on the lawn, offspring of Nyquist seem to like the turf, and he’s been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of his unveiling; #4 ACTION JACKSON: Has been off since November but sports several strong drills in the morning and has attracted Flavien Prat. Jorge Abreu’s horses have been firing lately, and this one seems ready to go ahead of his 2022 debut; #10 CONQUIST: Ran reasonably well in his turf debut, when he was fourth behind a much-the-best winner. He’s very lightly-raced, with just three prior starts under his belt, and I think there’s more room for him to grow. A step forward could get him a big piece of this at a nice price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/5/22)

Posted on August 3, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $982.95

It’s induction day at the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, and the 2022 class is a big one. It’s headlined by a pair of world-class distaffers, Beholder and Tepin, and it’ll be outstanding seeing these equine legends take their well-deserved places alongside others that fit that description.

I have a Hall of Fame vote, and it’s one of the biggest honors of my career. If you haven’t ventured across the street from the track, go. They just made some significant renovations not long ago, and there’s something for racing fans of all ages and experience levels.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My late Pick Four ticket was cut in half after a scratch, and it paid off handsomely. Miss Domina finished off a six-win day for me in the pick box with a score in the Thursday finale, one that returned $184.25 on a $12.50 ticket that also boasted two winning singles.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Assuming we stay on the turf, #5 GOLDEN PAL should not lose the penultimate race of the card, the Grade 3 Troy. As a result, it’s a great opportunity to play the Grand Slam. My $3 ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 1,2,10 with 3 with 1,5,9 with 5. Hopefully, having multiple combinations alive to one of the best turf sprinters on the planet will help me extract value from that runner.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Golden Pal, Race 9
Longshot: Jay’stalker, Race 3

Well Spent
Indian Bella
Customerexperience

#1 WELL SPENT: Romped last time out at Churchill Downs and was claimed back by a barn that had plenty of success with her late last year. When she’s good, she’s very good, and she’s a logical favorite in the Friday opener; #6 INDIAN BELLA: Has emerged as a very consistent mare and hasn’t missed the exacta in her last five starts. This includes a second in a small stakes race at Aqueduct, and her last-out second behind a next-out winner was a nice effort; #5 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE: Hasn’t won in quite a while, but did record a victory at this route last summer (albeit against a much weaker group). This distance seems to suit her, and if the new barn can help her recapture her winter form, perhaps she’ll be right there when it counts.

Maybe Later (MTO)
Command Point
Our Jessica

#7 COMMAND POINT: Has been off eight months but returns for a very capable outfit and faced much better horses for most of last year. There should be plenty of speed in here for her to chase, and if she’s ready, she could prove tough to hold off; #2 OUR JESSICA: Earned the diploma last time out and makes her first start against winners. That’s not an easy ask, but David Donk’s runners are firing with regularity, Jose Ortiz rides back, and she should be a square price; #3 MAMA RINA: Placed in a pair of stakes races as a 2-year-old and takes a big drop in class here. She also gets Lasix for the first time here, and there’s every chance she gets this barn going with a win here.

Capt’ Remington
Jay’stalker
Devil Or Angel

#6 CAPT’ REMINGTON: Is a tepid top pick in a confusing bottom-level maiden claiming event. He’s run second in a pair of starts against straight maidens at Finger Lakes, attracts Javier Castellano, and boasts a race over this surface last summer that wasn’t bad; #5 JAY’STALKER: Debuts for Bruce Levine, whose numbers with first-time starters aren’t bad. He’s got a few solid gate drills, and as unveiling spots go, this sure seems like a soft one; #2 DEVIL OR ANGEL: Showed early zip in a similar spot last time before fading to finish fourth. This event doesn’t seem to have much gate speed signed on, and it’s possible he leads them a long way here.

Tapizearance
Magnetron
Gandy Dancing

#3 TAPIZEARANCE: Drops back to the level of his best recent showing, when he ran second two back at Belmont. He lost all chance at the break last time out against a better group, and between that and the significant class relief, I’m expecting an improved performance here; #5 MAGNETRON: Won a photo finish last time out at Finger Lakes and has proven to be an astute $10,000 claim by this outfit. He sports a win at this seven-furlong distance earlier this year, and his flexible running style could give Javier Castellano some options; #7 GANDY DANCING: Hasn’t won in a while and it’s possible he’s over the top, but he loves this track. I simply can’t ignore a local record that consists of two wins and a second in three Saratoga outings, and it’s not like he’s been horrible in races at this level downstate.

Madaket entry
Rheaume
Hail To

MADAKET ENTRY: I’m banking on strength in numbers in this wide-open turf marathon. #1 SHAD NATION has been competitive against stakes foes and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., while #1A SANTA GIULIA probably needed her U.S. debut earlier this summer and is eligible to improve should she draw in off the AE list; #5 RHEAUME: Did everything but win in each of her last two starts, when she fell short by a head on back-to-back occasions at Belmont. Michael Dickinson doesn’t ship many horses up here, so it’s very noteworthy when one shows up in a big spot; #10 HAIL TO: Exits the same race as my second selection and did the dirty work up front. She was beaten just a neck that day, but she’s shown an affinity for this turf course and has every right to improve.

Love Tank
She’ll Never Know
Run for Cover

#2 LOVE TANK: Moved forward in a big way last time out, when she ran second beaten just a length. Luis Saez hops aboard, and she certainly seems to have an early speed advantage over the rest of this bunch; #10 SHE’LL NEVER KNOW: Was bet down to 3/5 in her debut, but ran a one-paced fourth while wide on the main track. Her bottom-side pedigree has some turf to it, and while the far outside post is a problem, she may have matured enough to overcome it; #1 RUN FOR COVER: Sports several strong works ahead of her debut, including a recent bullet drill going a half-mile over the Oklahoma track’s turf course. She didn’t fetch much at auction (just $20,000), but this barn can win with first-time starters and she’s preparing like she has some talent.

Lil Commissioner
Ragtime Blues
Direct Order

#3 LIL COMMISSIONER: Responded to a big class drop with a win going seven furlongs last month at Belmont. He’s got four wins and four thirds in 10 career starts going a mile, so this distance shouldn’t be a problem, and it sure seems like he’s found his friends; #5 RAGTIME BLUES: Has three wins from his last five starts and has come to hand for trainer Jeffrey Englehart after being claimed in February. He’s been freshened up ahead of this effort, and he’s got enough speed to be a primary pace factor; #4 DIRECT ORDER: Goes first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, who does excellent work with horses first off the claim and has won several races at this stand already. He’s 5-for-16 at this one-mile distance, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be.

Tiz the Bomb
Stolen Base
Chanceux

#9 TIZ THE BOMB: Ran too badly to be true in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, where he was up against it all the way due to the slow pace set by Classic Causeway. We’ve seen him put together high-level races before, and I think he returns to form here in the Grade 2 National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame; #5 STOLEN BASE: Is another who was compromised in the Belmont Derby and is far better than what he showed that day. His race two back to win the Grade 2 American Turf was a very good one, and that day’s win rider, Flavien Prat, is back aboard here; #1 CHANCEUX: Looks like the controlling speed, which is always tough in route races on the inner turf course. Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been aboard for each of his two wins, and he’ll get a leg up from trainer Todd Pletcher in this event.

Golden Pal
Yes and Yes
True Valour

#5 GOLDEN PAL: Was unfortunately compromised by one of the worst starts at the Royal Ascot meet in the Group 1 Kings Stand, which was won by world-class Australian sprinter Nature Strip. The Grade 3 Troy isn’t a bad race for the level, but it represents significant class relief for one of the best turf sprinters in recent memory, and if he’s right, the race is for second; #2 YES AND YES: Presents genuine value in the exotics cutting back in distance after tiring going a mile in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple. He’d won three straight turf sprints prior to that race, and unlike many others in here with tactical speed, he doesn’t need the lead in order to run well; #6 TRUE VALOUR: Set the pace in the Grade 1 Jaipur and finished a close-up third that day behind Casa Creed and Arrest Me Red. He’s another globetrotter, having run a decent sixth in the 2021 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan, and his best race could at least warm Golden Pal up.

R10

Wicked Lady
Kukaro
Big Bean Christine

#6 WICKED LADY: Runs for a tag for the first time and has back races that would be enough to beat these. Her two-back clunker looks a bit better now, since that day’s top three runners have all come back to win, and her last race is a throwout given she clearly hated the turf; #2 KUKARO: Debuts for a barn whose horses are competing well at the meet, and she may not have to be much in order to be a major player here. This outfit’s first-time starters often need a race to get going, but again, it’s not like she’s facing any world-beaters in here; #4 BIG BEAN CHRISTINE: Just missed in a similar race earlier this summer, which almost gave this barn its first win of the calendar year. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and unlike others in here, she’s shown an ability to pass horses late.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/4/22)

Posted on August 2, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $811.20

Saturday is Whitney Day, one of my favorite programs each Saratoga season. The feature has attracted plenty of handicap division heavyweights, including Life Is Good and Olympiad, and the rest of the card looks highly competitive.

I’ll be diving into the late Pick Five on the HHH Racing Podcast. We’ll stream live Thursday evening at 7:30 pm Eastern time, and you’ll be able to watch on the podcast’s YouTube channel.

These guys do a lot of work to put forth a strong product, and I’m flattered to have been asked to chime in. If you’re around Thursday night, join us!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Most of my action was cancelled when Bezos and Regality scratched out of the finale. I was left with a single $3 cold exacta, which ran 1-3 when my runner-up lost a brutal photo for second money.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play the late Pick Four and try to extract some value out of #5 ART COLLECTOR in the featured Alydar. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh and reads as follows: 1,3,6,7,8 with 5 with 1,7 with 1,2,4,7,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Art Collector, Race 8
Longshot: Fast Corey, Race 10

Sicilian Grandma
Lady Quinn
Acqua Bella

#5 SICILIAN GRANDMA: Was bet to favoritism in her debut, and that race is a total throwout given the sloppy track at Ellis Park. She’d shown precocity in a few workouts ahead of that performance, and Mike Maker’s runners tend to improve with experience anyway; #1 LADY QUINN: Has worked well twice since coming up from Monmouth Park for a conditioner that merits plenty of respect. The rail isn’t an ideal draw, but perhaps she’s quick enough to overcome it; #3 ACQUA BELLA: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may take money because of that, but I have my doubts. This $80,000 yearling purchase runs for $50,000 here, and if she’s a promising dirt horse, why was she worked on turf earlier this month, then sent down to Belmont?

Personal Pursuit
Alluring Angel
Cowichan

#10 PERSONAL PURSUIT: Showed some speed in her debut on dirt at Churchill Downs and comes in off of a very strong turf drill over the Oklahoma track. This $500,000 auction buy has plenty of talent on both sides of her pedigree, and the experience edge she has over some of this field is a big plus; #4 ALLURING ANGEL: Has a pedigree that’s all-turf in every possible direction. Jorge Abreu has attracted Irad Ortiz, Jr., to ride this filly, one out of a dam that’s kin to European Group 2 winner I Can Fly; #5 COWICHAN: Has shown speed in two downstate starts but faltered as the 2/5 favorite last time out. The blinkers come off, and that’s a strong move from a barn that cannot be ignored in these races, but I need more of a price than I’m likely to get.

W W Fitzy
Boston Post Road
Played Hard

#2 W W FITZY: Comes into this one off of a very strong race at Churchill Downs, where she sat a few lengths off the pace and won going away. With the exception of a race where she was eased, she hasn’t run a bad one since being claimed by Robertino Diodoro over the winter; #6 BOSTON POST ROAD: Comes in off of a third-place finish against stakes foes in the slop at Monmouth Park. That may have been a bounce off of a strong return to the races two back, when she dusted allowance foes at this distance at Belmont in her first start in 14 months; #3 PLAYED HARD: Has just one off-the-board finish in 10 career starts, and it came in last year’s Grade 1 Alabama against Malathaat and Clairiere. She nearly wired a decent group last time out in Kentucky and figures to be prominent from the jump here.

Alpine Queen
Vallarand
Stormi Cat Lady

#6 ALPINE QUEEN: Goes first off the claim for a small barn that’s already found the winner’s circle at this stand and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., who likely had some options here. She’s got four top-two finishes in six starts at this distance, and the July 21st work here jumps off the page; #3 VALLARAND: Likely needed her 2022 debut earlier this meet, which probably came against a better group and was her first start since October. Her winning effort here last season was sharp, and a similar type of performance here would give her a big shot; #2 STORMI CAT LADY: Won big last time out against a lesser group and steps up in class for a barn that’s running very, very well right now. Jose Lezcano has seemed to click with her over her last three starts, and perhaps she’s figuring things out in her 4-year-old season.

Sensible Jim
One More Baby
Mistical Curlin

#3 SENSIBLE JIM: Goes first off the claim for Joe Sharp and seems eligible to improve in a bottom-level maiden claiming race with many horses that seem like they’re being dumped. His best race came going two turns, he’s been working well up here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on or near the lead in a race with horses that don’t like passing others; #8 ONE MORE BABY: Had an excuse last time, when he didn’t break well and was much further back than he prefers. His runner-up finish two back was fine, and the horse he chased that day came right back to win at next asking; #2 MISTICAL CURLIN: Was fourth for a higher tag last time out in a race run out of the Wilson chute. He’s not without a chance in here, but while it looks like he was gaining late, they ran the last quarter-mile in more than 27 seconds that day, so that’s a bit deceptive.

Fire King
New York Panther
Twirling Charlie

#5 FIRE KING: Goes long at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing to do. However, he’s in the hands of a trainer whose horses can do that, and his July 8th turf drill indicates he could have a lot of talent. Being by Belmont winner Palace Malice, I don’t think two turns will bother him much, either; #8 NEW YORK PANTHER: Rallied to run second going five furlongs downstate and has a right to improve stretching out to a route distance. His experience edge is a plus, and his pedigree indicates he’ll only get better with more ground; #9 TWIRLING CHARLIE: Was one-paced in his debut, which is the same race my second selection exits. This barn is aces with runners stretching out in distance, and a Parx-based rider comes north for just one mount. These connections did this last weekend with a 2-year-old that ran second.

Short Summer Dress (MTO)
Mail Order
Bye Bye

#6 MAIL ORDER: Stepped forward in a big way last time out, when she cruised home to top allowance foes while earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure. Bill Mott’s runners tend to get better as they get older, and if another step forward third off the bench is in the offing, look out; #1 BYE BYE: Hasn’t won in a while and gets a tricky rail draw, but she’s run well twice downstate this season and was a close-up third in a stakes race at this route a season ago. There’s plenty of speed entered in this turf sprint, and nobody’s been riding these races better than Joel Rosario; #8 HIT THE WOAH: Hasn’t run in nearly six months but was a winner when last seen at Gulfstream Park. Her only other turf sprint to date was the Grade 3 Soaring Softly in 2021, where she was beaten less than two lengths by Bye Bye.

Art Collector
Masqueparade
Mystic Night

#5 ART COLLECTOR: Makes his first start since a failed trip to the Middle East for the Saudi Cup and will look to win the Alydar for the second year in a row. He’s been working very strongly ahead of his return, and if he’s at anything close to his best, this race is for second money; #6 MASQUEPARADE: Was third in last year’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy behind Essential Quality, then went to the sidelines after a clunker in the Grade 1 Travers. His two outings at Churchill this season have been fine, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the favorite’s flank; #1 MYSTIC NIGHT: Is 2-for-2 this season and comes in with a consistent local work tab for Chad Brown. A repeat of his last-out performance at Keeneland would give him a puncher’s chance, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s too pace-dependent for this event, which doesn’t have much apparent zip signed on outside of the overwhelming favorite.

Good Governance
Madaket entry
Atone

#7 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Hasn’t been out of the barn since February, but is a handful when he’s right and has placed in a pair of graced stakes races here over the years. I’ve taken stands against Brown trainees shipping up from Monmouth, but several of those have won coming off of long layoffs this summer, so perhaps it’s not as much of a red flag as it used to be; MADAKET ENTRY: Both have a shot, but I prefer #1 EMARAATY, who’s 2-for-3 here (including one of my eight wins the last Friday of last season). He ran well when second behind the talented Sifting Sands downstate, and 6-1 seems like far too big a price given what he’s capable of; #2 ATONE: Has run well in three graded stakes races and was second in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple here just a few weeks ago. On talent, he fits, but the outside post is a concern, and while Dylan Davis is enjoying a breakthrough year, it’s worth wondering why Flavien Prat got off to ride Emaraaty.

R10

Miss Domina
Corms entry
Fast Corey

#7 MISS DOMINA: Was entered in a very tough spot off a long layoff last time out and ran like she needed the tightener. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win a stakes race earlier in the meet, and if this one’s back to her mid-2021 form, she could step forward and benefit from a closer-friendly race shape; CORMS ENTRY: Both #1 STUCK ON KITTEN and #1A MISPELLED MOOON fit here. The former goes second off the bench for a barn hitting at 26% this calendar year, while the latter graduated last time out and figures to be prominent early; #8 FAST COREY: Was a best bet of mine on opening day, when she took money against claimers, broke a bit slowly, and didn’t sit her desired trip. She was claimed that day, gets protected here, and has the zip to be the speed of the speed in this spot. Maybe that’s not enough to win, but I wouldn’t construct vertical exotics tickets without her involved.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/3/22)

Posted on August 1, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $814.20

The calendar’s rolled over into August, and with it, we’re more than a third of the way through the Saratoga meet. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it every year: It’s a testament to the uniqueness of Saratoga that the meet seems to both fly by and be the ultimate handicapping grind at the same time.

We’re starting to see a few horses that ran very early in the meet entered in other races. Every year, there are some races that figure to be key ones and others that leave you scratching your head and wondering if any horse entered will ever win again. That information can prove very powerful for eagle-eyed, sharp-minded handicappers. Trust your gut, bet accordingly, and you’ll be at a considerable advantage compared to those who don’t.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: It wasn’t glamorous, but this section’s betting strategy did triple the odds of the most impressive 2-year-old we’ve seen at the meet. Prank went off at 1/2, but $30 worth of plays in this section returned $76 thanks to an overlaid double.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll wait until the finale. #11 CATHEDRAL BEACH takes a huge drop for a barn that’s due to get rolling, while #6 REGALITY is another dropper that may have found his friends and figures to be a price. I’ll key this pair on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #3 BEZOS, and #9 BRACIOLE in the second spot.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Rice entry, Race 5
Longshot: Regality, Race 10

Going Country
Burn The Evidence
Howyabud

#3 GOING COUNTRY: Is one of three Keri Brion runners in this field, and this is the one that attracts the circuit’s top jump jock. He was favored in a Grade 2 two back and was way too far behind last time out. His best gives him a big shot; #7 BURN THE EVIDENCE: Was second behind Down Royal last time out, and that one came back to win the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. She’s a consistent sort that’s been in the money every start since November of 2021; #5 HOWYABUD: Has won his two starts over fences by a combined total of 18 lengths and will probably go favored. That’s not totally without merit, but Hendriks rode last time and hops off, which is a legit question mark.

Bond entry
Laughter
Ace Up Her Sleeve

BOND ENTRY: I prefer #1A GLITTERING PRIZE, who sure seems like the lone speed and attracts top gate rider Luis Saez. I don’t think she’ll have much competition early, and she could prove tough to run down if she gets comfortable; #2 LAUGHTER: Has improved with all three starts and comes in off of a four-furlong bullet drill last week. This barn’s numbers aren’t great this season, but a repeat of the last-out effort on turf probably gets this one a piece of it; #4 ACE UP HER SLEEVE: Hasn’t raced in nearly a year but has been working steadily ahead of her 3-year-old debut. This barn can win with both droppers and second-out maidens, and she doesn’t have to be much to put forth a good account of herself against what sure looks like one of the weaker fields we’ll see at this level.

Leddy
Never Early
Achilles Heel

#6 LEDDY: Merits a tepid top pick in a confusing race with many class-droppers. He’s one, and he gets Lasix ahead of his 2022 debut. His maiden-breaking effort last November was very sharp, and the Asmussen camp must’ve seen something encouraging to ship him up from Ellis Park; #5 NEVER EARLY: Was once a speedball but has gained an ability to rate that could prove helpful. His stalk-and-pounce trip two back was a winning one, and he may sit a similar journey in this event, which seems full of early zip; #7 ACHILLES HEEL: Hasn’t won in quite a while, but that lone win came over this very track almost a year ago. He’s a bit slow on figures, but he also seems like this race’s lone true closer, which could work in his favor.

Chaysenbryn (MTO)
Charge Account
War Canoe

#6 CHARGE ACCOUNT: Returned to the lawn last time out and ran well despite rating in a race without much early speed and running very wide turning for home. Castellano and Morley have been a very strong tag team to this point in the met, and the return to a two-turn route should help him; #3 WAR CANOE: Is an easy mare to root for and makes her 52nd lifetime start here. She exits the same race as my top pick, may have moved a bit too early that day, and doesn’t have to improve much in order to record her 11th lifetime win; #5 GOLDEN VOICE: Won two in a row this spring before throwing in a clunker as a 6/5 favorite at Horseshoe Indiana last time out. She’s now 0-for-3 over that surface, though, so perhaps it’s an easy race to toss, and this technically represents a drop in class.

Rice entry
Triumphant Road
Sosua Summer

#1 JAVA BUZZ: Showed class last year when chasing several nice horses and came back running in his 3-year-old debut. He was beaten a half-length that day despite a slow start, has every right to improve second off the bench, and should get plenty of pace to run at; #4 TRIUMPHANT ROAD: Comes in off a very long layoff but is bred to love the turf. His dam is a multiple graded stakes winner on turf, and this one ran into a very well-meant horse in his debut that wound up being a pretty serious sprinter; #5 SOSUA SUMMER: Has shown a lot of early speed in his career and should be prominent early. He’s also, however, shown a propensity to fade when the real running starts. On speed figures, he fits, but it’s fair to demand more value than we’ll probably get.

Lady Quinn (MTO)
Smokie Eyes
Collaboration

#7 SMOKIE EYES: Hammered for $160,000 last summer across the street and is bred to be a strong turf horse. Her dam was Grade 3-placed on the grass, and her second dam, a multiple stakes-winning turfer herself, threw Grade 3-winning turf runner Emotional Kitten; #3 COLLABORATION: Is by English Channel and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, which means this two-turn turf route should fit her like a glove. Both of her siblings to race are winners, and her dam is kin to Grade 3-winning mare Genre; #6 SWEETEST PRINCESS: Is another filly with some class to her bottom-side pedigree. Dam Sweet Cause is kin to several strong runners, including Grade 3-placed Stormy Sky, and third dam Sweet Eloise threw an impressive 12 winners (including stakes types Don Dulce and Secret Passage).

Tiergan
Blewitt
Troubleshooter

#3 TIERGAN: Seems likely to sit a dream trip just behind several early speed horses in this race out of the Wilson chute. Unlike those rivals, he doesn’t need the lead to run well, but he shouldn’t be too far back and may have ideal positioning turning for home; #6 BLEWITT: Has been around the circuit a long time and returns off a three-month break for this event. He ran away with the Stud Muffin two starts ago, but it’s worth noting his lone local win came going longer than this distance, and with a perfect trip to boot; #4 TROUBLESHOOTER: Has turned into a pace-dependent type, but he should get plenty of that here. This is the third start of his form cycle, and it’s encouraging to see Luis Saez ride back when he may have had some options.

Buckingham Prince
Must Be Love
Swift Tap

#3 BUCKINGHAM PRINCE: Ships in after running a good second in a race at this level and distance at Churchill Downs, and shippers from that venue have been running well here. His lone local start was a second last summer, one that aged well considering that day’s winner, Stolen Base, has turned into a stakes-winner; #2 MUST BE LOVE: Goes first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, whose barn is firing to this point in the meet. He does strong work with new acquisitions, and Joel Rosario landing here cannot be ignored, especially at this one’s likely price; #9 SWIFT TAP: Hasn’t won since breaking his maiden almost a year ago but makes his first start for Rob Atras, who’s as good as it gets first off the claim. He’s another coming in from Churchill Downs, and his races at this level have been very competitive.

Brown entry
Played Hard (MTO)
Poca Mocha

BROWN ENTRY: Both #1 ROCKY SKY and #1A AMERICAN BRIDGE can win this optional claiming event. They’re both stakes types getting significant class relief, and I anticipate this entry being the shortest-priced betting interest on the entire card (and a popular single in the multi-race exotics); #4 POCA MOCHA: Made an early move last time in a decent race for the level and should benefit from this two-turn configuration. Prat hops off to ride Rocky Sky, but Joel Rosario climbs aboard, and he rode her to a good second at Keeneland this past spring; #6 BRAMBLE BAY: Merits a look underneath at a pretty nice price. She won a state-bred stakes race at Monmouth last month, and her recent record looks a bit better if you toss her two and three-back efforts on dirt.

R10

Cathedral Beach
Regality
Bezos

#11 CATHEDRAL BEACH: Takes a gigantic class drop from optional claimers to this non-winners-of-two event and draws favorably for an outfit that’s better than its 1-for-16 start to the meet. He’s been training well at Belmont, retains regular pilot Manny Franco, and looms large in the Wednesday finale; #6 REGALITY: Hasn’t won since May of 2021, but goes second off the bench for a capable barn and comes back to what’s probably the right level. He had every right to need his last effort, his first start since November, and this apprentice rider has been putting horses in the right spots this summer; #3 BEZOS: Is a star-crossed runner entered for his lowest tag ever after hammering for $400,000 as a yearling. That said, his races two and three back against far better starter allowance foes weren’t bad, and he figures to be prominent early in a race that doesn’t seem heavy on gate speed.