BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $809.25

I’m using this space again to plug something for my wife, whose fifth-grade students come back to school next week. She’s a fifth-grade teacher at a public school outside of Oakland, California, and she could use our help.

Like a lot of teachers, she’s compiled a wish list on Amazon. A few of you donated last week, and we both greatly appreciate that. If you hit something today or this week, and you’re looking for a worthy cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My late Pick Four fizzled when a favorite I tried to beat won the ninth. I dropped $45.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Being honest, this doesn’t hit me as one of the most exciting cards of the summer, so I’m treading lightly. I’ll focus on the third race, where I’ll use #1 WHISTLER’S STYLE/#1A MISS LAO and #6 LIKA ROLLING STONE on top of $2 exactas that use those two, #3 MURSAL, and #7 FOLLOW YOUR ARROW underneath. I’ll also box my top two betting interests in additional $4 exactas, too.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Costa Terra, Race 1
Longshot: Lika Rolling Stone, Race 3

R1

Costa Terra
Golden Purchase
Castle Island

#3 COSTA TERRA (2-1): Drops down in class pretty significantly and has back races that would bury this group if he can channel that form. He does have a history of finding trouble, but he’s also shown strong two-turn form, and if he’s at his best, I think the race is for second; #5 GOLDEN PURCHASE (10-1): Romped first off the claim for Bruce Levine, and while he tries tougher foes here, I think he may be going the right way. They certainly didn’t find an overly-tough spot for the level, and he figures to be on or near the lead early; #2 CASTLE ISLAND (4-1): Tried much tougher last time out and drops to what’s probably the right level. His two-back win going two turns was very sharp, and while he’s a bit inconsistent, he could lead them a long way.

R2

Summer Whirl
Royal Bobbie
Sweet Anniversary

#5 SUMMER WHIRL (9/5): Tries dirt for the first time, and while I don’t usually love short-priced horses doing something they’ve never done before, she finds what hits me as a very soft field here. Her turf form has been very solid, and there seems to be some pace signed on to set up for her late kick; #3 ROYAL BOBBIE (5/2): Didn’t run badly at this route two starts ago, when she got caught rating behind a very slow pace. She’s had some gate issues, and that’s a problem, but the race flow here does set up for closers; #2 SWEET ANNIVERSARY (2-1): Had every chance at this level and route last month, but she stopped to a walk in the final furlong and settled for second. She’ll be one of the favorites, and I get why, but I just can’t back a horse that had a perfect trip last time out and couldn’t get the job done.

R3

Rice entry
Lika Rolling Stone
Mursal

RICE ENTRY (2-1): Both #1 WHISTLER’S STYLE and #1A MISS LAO can win, but I prefer the latter. She’s dropping down in class, and her form looks much better if you toss the two-back clunker downstate. She’s inconsistent, but perhaps the shallower waters are what she needs; #6 LIKA ROLLING STONE (8-1): Hasn’t done much running in her last several starts, but she drops way down in class and has run well at this seven-furlong distance. Furthermore, there seems to be plenty of speed signed on, and that would set up her late kick; #3 MURSAL (9/5): Is another mare dropping way down the class ladder for this one, and it’s possible she’s just been in way over her head in her last three tries. However, there’s also a chance she needs an easy lead, and I just don’t think that scenario materializes here.

R4

Rice entry (MTO)
Red Burgundy
Bobby M’s Girl

#8 RED BURGUNDY (2-1): Sure looks like the controlling speed, and she’s shown she’s very tough when she gets her desired trip. Her wire-to-wire win last time out came off a bit of a break, and “main speed on the inner turf” is a very powerful angle; #5 BOBBY M’S GIRL (9/2): Had trouble last time out in the Mount Vernon and comes back to the allowance ranks here. Given the race shape, she probably never had a shot last time, but her late-2024 races were solid enough and she may provide value compared to…; #3 BROCKNARDINI (9/5): …who may go off favored in here. She’s flashed immense talent at times and gets Lasix here, but the pace may not set things up for her, and you can argue she has yet to move forward off of her stakes-winning 2023 form.

R5

Lollipops
Best Impression
Another Cleeshay

#9 LOLLIPOPS (3-1): Earned the diploma two back, then tackled tougher company last time out and didn’t run terribly at a price. This restricted claiming event seems like a softer spot, and I’m not sure how much company she’ll have up front early on; #8 BEST IMPRESSION (5/2): Runs first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s among the best in the game with new acquisitions. She might’ve moved a bit early last time out, but that was a pretty slow race for the level, and I think she may have to move forward in this event; #1 ANOTHER CLEESHAY (7/2): Looked like she could be any kind when she romped in her debut here last August. However, she hasn’t panned out and takes an alarming drop to run for just a $17,500 tag here. I find the drop puzzling, but she’s certainly a contender with some back class.

R6

Devilish Grin
Oscar’s Encore
Imminent Risk

#2 DEVILISH GRIN (5/2): Looks like a formidable favorite in the kickoff leg of the late Pick Four. She closed a bit at first asking, and she did so in a race with a pretty slow early pace. Improvement is logical at second asking, and if that happens, she could be tough to deny; #9 OSCAR’S ENCORE (7/2): Is one of two in here for trainer Joe Sharp, and this hits me as the more likely winner. She’s a daughter of Oscar Performance who’s been working well since getting to Saratoga a few weeks ago, and she just barely qualifies for this restricted maiden race with her $60,000 auction price; #7 IMMINENT RISK (6-1): Is the “other” Joe Sharp charge, and she gets Irad Ortiz Jr. in her career debut. That could signal she’s got some potential, but the pedigree doesn’t necessarily indicate she wants the grass.

R7

Game Warden
Parchment Party
Lambeth

#3 GAME WARDEN (9/2): Is my pick to spring a mild upset in the Birdstone. Draw lines through his races at Churchill Downs, and his sheet looks considerably better. Add in that he went 2-for-2 here a season ago and has shown an affinity for marathon distances, and I think there’s plenty to like; #2 PARCHMENT PARTY (7/5): Romped in the Belmont Gold Cup, which was taken off the turf following a torrential downpour. He was visually impressive that day, and it came back great on figures, but he beat turf horses in that dirt race, and I think this spot may be a bit tougher; #4 LAMBETH (5/2): Beat several of these opponents three back in the Temperence Hill at Oaklawn. He figures to be prominent early, and if he gets comfortable, he could prove tough to catch.

R8

Mazayaat (MTO)
Midway Memories
Griselda

#5 MIDWAY MEMORIES (3-1): Had an eventful trip against stakes foes last time out and returns to allowance company here. With that, she’ll get to run with Lasix, and she could have more room to move forward than most given her relative inexperience; #7 GRISELDA (5/2): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for trainer Chad Brown and makes her American debut in this event. She showed some potential as a 2-year-old in France, and it’s always worth noting when a European invader gets Lasix for the first time; #3 SO DARN PRETTY (6-1): Went wire-to-wire in her local debut last month and tries winners for the first time. She’s once again found a field that doesn’t seem to have much other early speed, and that figures to be music to jockey Luis Saez’s ears.

R9

Trading Trouble (AE)
I Rest My Case
St. Brigid’s Cross

#11 TRADING TROUBLE (9/5): Merits a big chance if she draws in off the AE list. She ran well in her debut, which she nearly won, and this isn’t a barn known for having first-time starters fully cranked. If a runner scratches and she’s able to run, she merits lots of respect; #6 I REST MY CASE (9/2): Ran like a horse that needed a race in her debut, when she was fourth downstate. Bill Mott’s runners tend to improve with experience, and if Devilish Grin (who ran second that day) runs well in the sixth, it bodes well for this one’s chances; #10 ST. BRIGID’S CROSS (3-1): Didn’t break well in her debut at Gulfstream and makes her second start for George Weaver, who’s fantastic with young turf sprinters. She could certainly improve, and this barn’s had a strong meet to this point.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $854.25

Racing’s partnerships with influencers have come under scrutiny in recent years. Handicappers feel ignored and deprioritized by an industry that has, at times, given the impression it’s far more concerned with things other than the on-track product and the betting ecosystem.

That’s understandable, but I’m going to middle this. Griffin Johnson, who’s gotten involved with West Point Thoroughbreds, is clearly very enthusiastic about the game. He’s presenting it well to a legion of followers who otherwise probably wouldn’t be interested. Isn’t this a good thing?

My issue is more of a “big picture” one. What’s racing, as a whole, doing to capitalize on these people being exposed to the product? I raised the same question when Alix Earle went to the Pegasus World Cup and horse racing Twitter lost its mind. To me, as both a handicapper and a marketing/communications professional, that’s the more significant question, and one racing as a whole needs to have a better answer for than what currently exists.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: None of my three bankroll plays won, so I dropped $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I don’t like the last two morning line favorites, and I’ll look to capitalize in the late Pick Four. My 50-cent ticket starting in the seventh reads as follows: 1,3,6 with 3 with 3,5,6,7,9 with 2,4,5,6,9,11. If #3 BRING THEBAND HOME runs as expected in the eighth and we can beat horses I feel are vulnerable chalks, this could pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $45.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Gatsas entry, Race 3
Longshot: Takeschargesmiling, Race 10

R1

Baron of Sealand
Six Kings
B D Saints

#4 BARON OF SEALAND (4/5): Drops in for a tag and looks very much like the one to beat in the Sunday lid-lifter. He won two in a row downstate before running fourth against state-bred optional claimers, and that day’s winner, Wynstock, is a pretty nice one on his best day; #2 SIX KINGS (3-1): Goes first off the claim for the astute Rob Falcone outfit. He hasn’t won in a while, and I question if two turns is what he wants, but he looks like the main speed in a race with many horses that don’t like to pass others; #6 B D SAINTS (5-1): Has a history of finding trouble throughout his 22-start career, but he goes first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who has a history of moving horses forward. I think he was too close to a legitimate pace last time, and Manny Franco’s ridden him fairly well a few times.

R2

Two Ducks
Three Diamonds entry
Johnny’s Red Storm

#6 TWO DUCKS (4-1): Debuts after a strong series of drills and with a pedigree that makes me wonder why he only sold for $22,000 at auction. He’s kin to three winners (including stakes horse Walking Thunder), and his female family includes the dam of graded stakes winners Sky Cape and Skygaze; #2 RARE ECLIPSE (4-1): Is bred to win early, being by Yaupon and out of a dam who’s kin to Grade 2 winner Alpha Kitten. Rusty Arnold’s horses sometimes need a race to get going, but this one may have some potential; #3 JOHNNY’S RED STORM (5/2): Debuts for George Weaver in a turf sprint, which automatically makes this one merit extra consideration, but I do have some doubts. Going back in his pedigree reveals third dam Tates Creek, who did her best work going much longer than this distance.

R3

Gatsas entry
Ten Cent Town
Confabulation

GATSAS ENTRY (4-1): I much prefer #1A NOTAH, who was a very good second downstate after dropping to this level first off the bench. Javier Castellano has been ice-cold at this stand, but between this one and a heavy favorite later on, I think he’s got two big chances today; #3 TEN CENT TOWN (5/2): Takes a drop into beaten claiming company, and perhaps that wakes him up. However, he hasn’t won since January of 2024, and if this one is so well-meant, why is the savvy Rick Dutrow also running #1 CELESTIAL GLAZE in here?; #5 CONFABULATION (9/2): Is protected by Linda Rice in his first start since the winter, and I love when trainers do that. He probably needs to move forward off the bench, but the protection signals they don’t want to lose the horse quite yet, and I’m inclined to think he’s ready to run.

R4

Mythical
Angel Gift
Tiz in Sight

#1 MYTHICAL (4/5): Ran the boys off their feet in the Tremont last time out, when she made the lead despite a slow start and never came back. Based on speed figures, she looks like a formidable favorite in the Grade 3 Adirondack; #3 ANGEL GIFT (6-1): Closed at first asking, which is a very tricky thing to do (especially in a race without a fast early pace). That hints at maturity, and I think she’ll welcome the extra furlong in distance she gets here; #4 TIZ IN SIGHT (8-1): Was professional in her first-out score at Churchill, when she got the job done despite some contact with her rivals. Churchill shippers have done very well here this summer, and this one could provide some value in the exotics.

R5

American Debutante
Hello Beauty
Bint Al Dandy

#4 AMERICAN DEBUTANTE (9/2): Debuted in a strangely-run race at Ellis Park and managed to finish third. I think she got a lot out of that race, and that improvement is very logical second time out with Irad Ortiz Jr. climbing aboard; #7 HELLO BEAUTY (6-1): Attracts Frankie Dettori and didn’t run badly when third last time out beaten less than a length. She’s shown some tactical speed, which isn’t a common trait in this field, and I wouldn’t be shocked if horse and rider are aggressive early; #3 BINT AL DANDY (5/2): Goes second off the bench and ran OK to be third here last time out, but I have some doubts. I thought she got a very good trip/ride that day, and while she may have needed the race to an extent, I’m not sure how much she’ll move forward and can’t take her on top at a short price.

R6

Meursault (MTO)
Louise Procter
Celtic Charm

#3 LOUISE PROCTER (3-1): Was left with way too much to do last time out as the skies opened up and could only manage a fifth-place finish in her U.S. debut. I think she’ll be much sharper second off the bench, and that she won’t be quite so far back early on; #8 CELTIC CHARM (9/2): Almost certainly needed the last-out clunker, which was her first try since December of 2023. She didn’t have a great trip that day, and I’m expecting a step forward for connections that know how to move horses up second off the bench; #1 COLLABORATION (4-1): Is yet another going second off a layoff, and she’s got enough early speed to potentially dictate terms early on. The 0-for-5 local record is a concern, but inside speed on the inner turf can be very, very dangerous, so she can’t be ignored.

R7

Vettriano
Midland Money
Northern Chili

#3 VETTRIANO (5/2): Hasn’t run since December and makes her first start for new trainer Linda Rice, but he got pretty good last year, with his only misfire coming in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. He’s been working well ahead of his 2025 debut, and if he’s ready, he’ll be tough; #1 MIDLAND MONEY (7/2): There HAS to be a story here. He ships in for Bob Baffert, who had him ready to go first time out…in June of 2024. We haven’t seen him since, he comes here for a first-level allowance, and to be honest, I have no clue what to do with him; #6 NORTHERN CHILI (10-1): Ships in from Churchill and is worth a look at a price. His two-back win was pretty sharp, and he may have just gone a bit too fast early on last time out. This barn doesn’t ship in much, and they mean business when they do.

R8

Bring Theband Home
Full Moon Madness (MTO)
Alogon

#3 BRING THEBAND HOME (3/5): Couldn’t have been more impressive in winning the Harvey Pack last time out. He’s 2-for-2 at this route, and if he makes the lead early, I think he’ll prove tough to run down in the Grade 2 Troy; #4 ALOGON (7/2): Exits a competitive third in the Grade 1 Jaipur, and neither horse that finished ahead of him shows up here. Irad Ortiz Jr. climbs aboard for this one, and if a rival goes with my top pick early, he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #2 TWENTY SIX BLACK (10-1): Seems best of the best despite indicating that his best form may come with Lasix, which he doesn’t get here. Still, he’s got plenty of closing speed and attracts Flavien Prat.

R9

Senegal (MTO)
Gene and Jude
Desperate Proposal

#3 GENE AND JUDE (12-1): Likely needed his last-out effort, which was his first try since June, and he was claimed that day by Mike Maker. Maker’s aggressive and isn’t afraid to drop horses. Here, he raises this one up in class, and he looks like he could be the lone speed on the inner turf; #9 DESPERATE PROPOSAL (7/2): Made up a lot of ground when second last time out. He’s got a history of slow starts, and that could hurt him given the likely race shape, but blinkers go on for a barn that’s proving to be a solid one; GOLDFARB ENTRY (2-1): #1A IRON MAX could win this, I guess, but I don’t think he beat much at all last time out. That was a state-bred maiden claimer, and he was less than 2/5 that day. Prat rides back, but the morning line price hits me as a significant underlay. I’ll try to beat him (and #1 HAMILTON’S WAY, too).

R10

Takeschargesmiling
Funny Joke
Gatsby

#9 TAKESCHARGESMILING (12-1): At least has a few things going for him in an absolute mess of a finale. He was claimed by a barn that hits at a 22% rate with new acquisitions last time, and his races over the winter at Tampa were sharp. If he shows up with that form, he’s got a big shot at a big price; #5 FUNNY JOKE (8-1): Hasn’t won in over two years, but he drops in class and gets a big rider switch to Prat. Those races downstate weren’t bad ones for the level, and perhaps the drop is what he needs at this point; #7 GATSBY (9/5): May be a heavy favorite shipping up from Florida, but I have serious reservations. He hasn’t won in the last two years, and while this is a class drop on paper, I don’t think his last race was a strong spot, at all, whatsoever. He was supposed to win that day and didn’t, so I’ll be against him here.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $904.25

This blurb could’ve gone a bunch of different directions, given the outstanding card from top to bottom. However, as I started writing about the Whitney, I felt a need to veer elsewhere.

If Fierceness wins the Whitney, he’ll have a win at the Spa in three straight years. That’s impressive and uncommon in an age where most top male horses are whisked away to the breeding shed as early as possible.

Fourstardave, the namesake of the eighth race, found the Saratoga winner’s circle in eight consecutive summers. For my money, it’s the most unbreakable record in all of horse racing, and it’s incredibly appropriate that the horse dubbed “the Sultan of Saratoga” has a Grade 1 race in his honor on one of the meet’s highest-profile cards.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Signator wasn’t the spoiler in the second, but Fortuna Mia prevailed in the fifth to allow me to sneak out a slight profit. Scratches cut the investment to $38, and bets returned $41.25.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ve got three $15 win bets that serve as my primary action. My plays are #1 SUNRISE in the second, #5 TEST SCORE in the ninth (the Saratoga Derby), and #3 LOOK FORWARD in the 10th (the Test). In addition, I’ll link Test Score and Look Forward in a $5 cold double.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Look Forward, Race 10
Longshot: Sunrise, Race 2

R1

Spendthrift entry
Blinging It Back
Tagermeen

SPENDTHRIFT ENTRY (3-1): Both #1 ABRIGADO and #1A TED NOFFEY seem live to me in the opener. I prefer the latter, who fetched $650,000 at auction last year and turned in a massive gate work back on July 5th; #5 BLINGING IT BACK (2-1): Chased Obliteration home in the Grade 3 Sanford for his second straight runner-up finish in stakes company. He’s back to the maiden ranks here in what will already be the fourth start of his career; #2 TAGERMEEN (7/2): Was a distant second behind a runaway winner at first asking and has a right to improve with experience. He sold for $1.4 million earlier this year at the OBS sale, and the two-back bullet followed by a maintenance move is a Steve Asmussen trademark.

R2

Sunrise
Capital Partner
Blame Jerry

#1 SUNRISE (10-1): Boasts a pedigree that’s one of the strongest you’ll see for a debuting turfer. He’s a full brother to Grade 1 winner Spendarella and multiple stakes winner Spanish Loveaffair, and a half to Grade 1 winner Spanish Queen. This should absolutely be what he wants to do; #5 CAPITAL PARTNER (7/2): Sold for more than $484,000 at auction last year in Europe and is another with fantastic bloodlines. He’s a son of Kingman, out of a mare who’s kin to multiple graded stakes winner Fantasia, among others; #10 BLAME JERRY (8-1): Goes out for the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team and hammered for $200,000 at Keeneland last year. This son of Blame is a full brother to Grade 3 winner Onus and fellow stakes horse Silvology, and his dam is kin to millionaire grass horses Ironicus and On Leave, among others.

R3

Obliteration
Comport
Ewing

#6 OBLITERATION (7/5): Has performed two of those in as many starts, which he’s won by a combined total of more than 17 lengths. He gets a cushy outside draw in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and continued improvement would make him a real handful; #2 COMPORT (8-1): Merits a look underneath at a bit of a price. His maiden win at Churchill was solid, and he then ran into Romeo in the Bashford Manor (but beat the third-place finisher by seven lengths in a swiftly-run race); #1 EWING (8/5): Did zero wrong in his debut, where he freaked by 12 lengths, but I do have some doubts. He beat a short field that day and has things all his own way up front. The waters are deeper here, and the rail draw isn’t always a good one for younger horses.

R4

Acoustic Ave (MTO)
Weaver entry
Run Curtis Run

WEAVER ENTRY (3-1): #1A ANTARES isn’t without a shot first off the claim, but #1 TWISTED FILIGREE is the one I want. He came back running with a gutsy wire-to-wire score last time out, and he’s never been worse than second in three Saratoga turf sprints; #5 RUN CURTIS RUN (5-1): Attracts Flavien Prat, who gets off my top pick to ride this one. He’s won just once since the start of 2024, but his races this year have been solid, and if there’s a contested pace, he stands to benefit; #10 FINAL VERDICT (9/2): Has run well twice here this summer, albeit in losing efforts. The post position is a problem, but Jose Ortiz rides for this smaller outfit, and he almost certainly had several options.

R5

Lost and Found
Metfardeh
Contorted

#4 LOST AND FOUND (3-1): Came back running when second in her first start since December at Churchill Downs. She comes into this one off a bullet drill over the Oklahoma track, and she hits me as the one they’ll have to catch; #1 METFARDEH (6-1): Sold for an eye-popping $2.3 million at Keeneland in 2023 and makes her long-awaited debut here. She’s trained well for Todd Pletcher, and my only hesitations have to do with the rail draw and the quirky seven-furlong trip; #11 CONTORTED (15-1): Has a lot of back class and ran well to be second at Ellis Park a few weeks ago. Her sheet includes several next-out winners, and she figures to be forwardly-placed with an ideal outside draw at a nice price.

R6

Spendthrift entry
Cadenza
Ornellaia

SPENDTHRIFT ENTRY (3-1): There’s strength in numbers in this wide-open event, and both #1 STEER CLEAR and #1A SOLEMN VOW have a right to be runners. The former is kin to 2-year-old stakes winner Fore Left, while the latter is a half to Grade 1 winner Prince of Monaco and has a dam that’s kin to a pair of stakes winners; #2 CADENZA (5-1): Makes her debut for Brad Cox and sports a series of flashy moves at Churchill Downs. Half-siblings Sneaking out, Grecian Fire, and Smuggler’s Run are all stakes winners, so this daughter of Charlatan has plenty of potential; #4 ORNELLAIA (7/2): Hammered for $1.1 million earlier this year and must’ve blown folks away at the sale, because the pedigree is pretty modest. This daughter of Girvin has been working steadily for Chad Brown and attracts first-call rider Flavien Prat.

R7

Jefferson Street
Dilger
Pentathlon

#13 JEFFERSON STREET (9/2): Makes his return to the races after a long break, and he ran in several very tough spots a season ago (including a solid second in the Grade 2 Amsterdam). He gets Lasix here, he’s been working well for Bill Mott, and hits me as the one to beat if he’s ready to run; #5 DILGER (6-1): Was third in the Grade 2 Carter two back and drops back into the allowance/optional claiming ranks. Both of his wins have come with Lasix, which he gets here, and he’ll also have the riding services of Irad Ortiz Jr.; #10 PENTATHLON (10-1): Does his best running at Saratoga and was a solid winner at this route on Belmont Stakes Day. That was a strange surface, to be sure, but he seems to be going the right way for Shug McGaughey and can’t be ignored in a wide-open event.

R8

Deterministic
Win for the Money
Johannes

#8 DETERMINISTIC (9/2): Found Grade 1 glory in the Manhattan last time out and cuts back to a mile in this year’s Grade 1 Fourstardave. He’s got plenty of speed, but he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well. Given the presence of sprinter #2 MY BOY PRINCE, that could prove very valuable; #5 WIN FOR THE MONEY (8-1): Almost certainly needed his run in the Grade 3 Kelso, where he still finished a solid third. He was up pretty close that day, and I don’t think it’s his best game. If he’s able to sit back and make one run, he could have a big shot; #3 JOHANNES (5/2): Makes his 2025 debut after being away since the day after Christmas, when he won his fourth graded stakes of the 2024 campaign. His best effort puts him right there, but the layoff and the ship-in from California are both major question marks that, for me, make his likely price hard to swallow.

R9

Test Score
Hotazhell
Tiberius Thunder

#5 TEST SCORE (7/2): Has developed into a top-notch turf horse, as evidenced by his score in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby. His two-back second behind Zulu Kingdom was also a very good race, and I think he may show more tactical speed in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby; #7 HOTAZHELL (7/5): Ships in from Europe after facing top-tier competition in the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse at Sandown. He was one of the continent’s top 2-year-olds, and that form would make him tough, but I have questions about this distance and if he may prefer less ground; #8 TIBERIUS THUNDER (15-1): Is another Euro, and this one will be a price. He needs to step forward on figures, but he’s shown he doesn’t have an issue with this distance, and whenever Frankie Dettori is called in to ride a European invader in a major turf race, I pay attention.

R10

Look Forward
Ragtime
Echo Sound

#3 LOOK FORWARD (8-1): Did little wrong last time out when second behind perfect-trip winner La Cara in the Grade 1 Acorn. She cuts back to one turn in the Grade 1 Test, and the last winner Ben Cecil ever trained is 3-for-3 in one-turn races; #1 RAGTIME (4-1): Is a perfect 2-for-2 and won while wrapped up last time out against an overmatched group of first-level allowance foes. She’ll have to run without Lasix, which is a question mark, but further improvement isn’t out of the question given her relative inexperience. If that happens, she’s a major player; #6 ECHO SOUND (9/5): Ran big on speed figures in winning the Grade 3 Victory Ride, but I’ve got some doubts. She beat a very short field that day with a picture-perfect trip, and she hasn’t gone seven furlongs yet. This isn’t an easy spot to do that for the first time, and I can’t back her at a short price.

R11

Fierceness
White Abarrio
Sierra Leone

#9 FIERCENESS (9/5): Sure seems likely to get his desired outside stalking trip from this post in a loaded renewal of the Grade 1 Whitney. He’s shown he can capitalize with his desired setup, and while this is a fantastic group of older horses, his best likely beats everyone else’s best; #7 WHITE ABARRIO (4-1): Has shown he hates the Wilson chute (I can relate…), so I have no problem drawing a line through the Grade 1 Met Mile. He loves this distance, has been working well, and may provide some value given his lofty credentials; #5 SIERRA LEONE (2-1): Was second in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster last time out after a season-opening dud in the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic. His win in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic speaks for itself, and he’ll have a big chance if the early pace turns out to be very fast.

R12

Caribbean Wind (MTO)
La Salvadorena
Leslie’s Humor

#3 LA SALVADORENA (3-1): Boasts a win and two seconds from three tries at this route, and the only poor race she’s ever run came going two turns. Regular rider Flavien Prat will be in the irons for this one, and she should get plenty of pace to chase; #12 LESLIE’S HUMOR (9/2): Goes first off the bench for Chad Brown, who’s been working her steadily here since early-May. The post position isn’t ideal, but she ran well in some swiftly-run races for the level last year before going to the sidelines; #6 BEING BETTY (15-1): Is a bit of a wacky play stepping up in class, but she came back running last time out to win in wire-to-wire fashion after setting a solid pace. This is a tougher group, to be sure, but the price is right and further improvement would give her a chance.

R13

Say Yes to Dreams
Selfless
Peak Hype

#10 SAY YES TO DREAMS (9/2): Ran once in Europe in June of 2024 before going to the bench, but she’s been training consistently for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time. Her pedigree says she’s supposed to be a runner, and if she’s ready, she’ll have every chance to strut her stuff; #9 SELFLESS (10-1): Hasn’t run since January, but comes back for a savvy barn that’s already had some success at this stand. Her late-2024 and early-2025 races were far from bad, and they featured several next-out winners ahead of her; #2 PEAK HYPE (7/2): Had an adventurous trip in her debut at this route and figures to improve with that under her belt. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides back for Chad, who seems to hold a strong hand in the Saturday nightcap.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $901

I didn’t vote for Smarty Jones in this year’s Hall of Fame election. I’m a longevity guy, and if a 3-year-old doesn’t race after the Triple Crown after not winning it, I can’t get there. Having said that, there’s no denying the effect his story had in 2004, when he drew a massive crowd to Belmont that included yours truly and was run down by Birdstone in the final strides.

As an aside, there’s a wide-angle photo from that race taken from the rail right at the wire. If you look seven or eight rows up, you can see high school-aged me with a video camera reporting for Kingston High School Television. It used to be on sale in the Hall of Fame’s gift shop, but I can’t find it anywhere. If someone can track it down, that’d be pretty cool.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: The opposite of “pretty cool” is what happened in the John Morrissey. Best bet The Wine Steward went off at 6-1, opened up at the top of the stretch, and got nailed on the wire. I thought I’d be up $240 on the day. Instead, I lost $40.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to focus on the early Pick Four, where I’ve got strong opinions to start and finish. If #5 SIGNATOR pulls off a minor upset in the second and #4 FORTUNA MIA takes the fifth, I want to get paid. My $1 ticket starting in the second goes as follows: 5 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5,8,9,10 with 4. I’ll also have $15 win bets on both of my singles.

TOTAL WAGERED: $44.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Fortuna Mia, Race 5
Longshot: Clever Again, Race 7

R1

Whatarewedoing
One More Freud
Caitlins Threes

#3 WHATAREWEDOING (2-1): Nearly got the job done last time out at Delaware Park, when she finished a close second in the mud. That didn’t seem like the toughest spot, but at least the third-place finisher came back to win, and her experience edge may be a plus; #1 ONE MORE FREUD (9/5): Debuts for Tom Amoss, and he’s been working well ahead of his unveiling. He’s a major player if he runs to those drills, although the rail draw is a major concern; #5 CAITLINS THREES (6-1): Makes her debut for Rob Falcone and is bred to be OK. Her dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, and this barn knows how to pop at a price with first-time starters.

R2

Disarm (MTO)
Signator
Wolfie’s Dynaghost

#5 SIGNATOR (4-1): Is a classy, stakes-winning closer in a race that seems full of early speed, and I think he’ll get a very friendly race shape here. It helps that he gets to run with Lasix, which he hasn’t gotten in his last three outings; #4 WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST (4/5): Is an easy horse to root for and will go for his 12th win in his 29th lifetime start. He’s shown he’s dangerous if he gets loose on the lead, but the presence of #1 PREVENT, among others, means the morning line price is just too short for me to take; #2 MONEY SUPPLY (9/2): Is another runner with plenty of stakes experience, and he runs for one of the hottest barns on the grounds. Luis Saez hops aboard, and like my top pick, he’s shown he can pass others late and benefit from the likely race shape.

R3

It Takes Heart
Gone and Forgotten
April Antics

#2 IT TAKES HEART (3-1): Feels like the main speed, which is always a plus in races out of the Wilson chute. She’s never been worse than third in four starts at a mile, and two of her seven wins have come at the Spa, too; #1 GONE AND FORGOTTEN (2-1): Goes for her third win this month in this spot, and no, that’s not a typo. She’s clearly in good form for Ilkay Kantarmaci, and if she can navigate this quirky trip, she’ll be a major player; #3 APRIL ANTICS (12-1): Hasn’t won in a long time, but she’s run well consistently over this surface and would benefit from a pace meltdown. Her record includes five top-three finishes in six outings, and she’s hit the board 20 times in 28 starts at a mile.

R4

So Vain (MTO)
Blue Madame
Tax Holiday

#4 BLUE MADAME (5-1): Is part of a strong 1-2 punch for Chad Brown, and if there’s a better turf pedigree on the grounds, I don’t know where it is. This daughter of Dubawi is out of a multiple Group 1 winner, and her second dam is a full sister to two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf hero High Chaparral; #8 TAX HOLIDAY (9/2): Is the other Brown trainee and debuts after fetching roughly $242,000 at auction last year in Europe. Her dam is kin to three stakes winners, including world travelers Mogul and Secret Gesture; PLETCHER ENTRY (8-1): I prefer #1 MISS PICKY, who hails from a line of strong Repole Stable runners and broodmares. Dam Always Shopping won multiple graded stakes, and second dam Stopshoppingmaria placed in a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old.

R5

Fortuna Mia
She’s Complicated
Kadena

#4 FORTUNA MIA (9/5): Hasn’t won since a first-out score in 2024, but she’s been running against much, much better competition and races for a tag for the first time. The switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. is a notable one, and I don’t think this race came up strong for the level; #2 SHE’S COMPLICATED (4-1): Is the second half of a strong 1-2 punch for the Linda Rice barn, and she goes first off the claim here. Her last-out effort was a clunker, but she chased a few next-out winners, and the three-month layoff hints that something may have gone amiss that day, too; #6 KADENA (2-1): Will get plenty of play based on the connections, but she just hasn’t shown much since breaking her maiden. The turf try last time out seemed a bit desperate, and at her likely price, I’ll let her beat me.

R6

Oscar’s Hope (MTO)
Schwarzenegger
Turf Star

#4 SCHWARZENEGGER (6/5): Sold for nearly a million dollars across the street last summer despite a pretty modest bottom-side pedigree, and he’s been working very, very fast ahead of his debut. Wesley Ward’s one of the best with first-time starters, and this one sure seems ready to go; #5 TURF STAR (7/2): Is kin to talented turfer Time for Trouble and has plenty of reason to be a good one. Graham Motion isn’t known for first-out success, but his numbers with debuting horses are solid enough; #2 MOUNT SOPRIS (12-1): Is another Glen Hill Farm homebred with a very strong pedigree. He’s by War Front and out of a stakes-winning mare, one produced by a Grade 1-winning dam. His local works are solid and hint he could be a factor here at a price.

R7

Zulu Kingdom
Clever Again
Luther

#7 ZULU KINGDOM (6/5): Has won six of seven while emerging as one of his crop’s best 3-year-old turfers and looms large in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. He exits a score in the Grade 3 Manila at this route, and he should once again sit an ideal stalking trip behind a live pace; #5 CLEVER AGAIN (6-1): Tries turf for the first time and is bred to absolutely love it. He’s by strong grass sire American Pharoah and out of the mare Flattering, who’s a full sister to multiple Group 1 winner Love. That two-back turf work jumps off the page, too; #2 LUTHER (3-1): Shipped in from across the pond and ran well to be third in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby. He cuts back to a mile, but he’s run well at that distance in both England and France, and the presence of Joel Rosario seems like a plus given his late-running style.

R8

Army Proud
Aetherium
The Saint

#7 ARMY PROUD (5/2): Gets Irad Ortiz Jr. after running second in a similar spot downstate. To be honest, it’s hard to have a lot of conviction in this state-bred maiden claimer, but a move forward under the circuit’s top rider would make him the one to beat; #5 AETHERIUM (15-1): Gets a look from me at a price due to a solid work tab and a strong pedigree. He’s a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Betsy Blue, and his second dam, Hard Freeze, was stakes-placed; #4 THE SAINT (10-1): Didn’t do any running at all on turf in his debut, but he takes an aggressive drop off of a few solid four-furlong workouts. He could easily improve given experience and the class relief he gets here.

R9

Flying P entry
Vinsanity
Fluid Situation

FLYING P ENTRY (8/5): Both #1 SHEFFLIN and #1A CHESS MASTER could win this. I slightly prefer the latter, who beat several of these last time out and has run well over this turf course several times, but the former cuts back to one turn and has a right to improve; #3 VINSANITY (15-1): Gets reunited with Jose Lezcano, who piloted him to a score back in May. The Grade 1 Jaipur was just too tough, and he had a tough trip two back in his most recent turf try. I think there’s reason to belief he’s in line for a step forward; #6 FLUID SITUATION (6-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but he’s run in some fast races and was third behind my top pick last time out. He’s also had some unlucky trips, too, and he doesn’t have to move forward too much from his last-out effort to stand a chance.

R10

Best Impression (MTO)
Life Advice
Twirly

#4 LIFE ADVICE (4-1): Has done everything but win multiple times, which is usually a red flag. However, she seems like the main speed in the Friday nightcap, which will be contested on the speed-friendly inner turf course. Furthermore, her jockey lost the irons last time out, which may have cost her the race; #1 TWIRLY (6-1): Comes out of a different race than most of the other contenders, which is a point in her favor. She’s improved significantly since running against claimers, and her last-out second at a similar level downstate wasn’t a bad effort; #5 COMPETITIVE THREAT (3-1): Was third behind my top pick last time out and goes out for Chad Brown. My issue is that she’s burned money quite a bit in her career, and I just don’t think she beat much to break her maiden two back. Perhaps she’s got more room to improve, but if she’s the favorite, I think that’s a mistake.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $941

My podcast, “Drank’n Champagne,” is off this week, but I’ll be hopping on the On the Wrong Lead network’s weekly live stream Thursday night. We’re planning to look at several races on Saturday’s Whitney Day program, and it’s always a blast being able to talk shop and engage with people live on the air.

If you haven’t already subscribed to the On the Wrong Lead YouTube channel, go do that. We’ve got a bunch of stuff available on a weekly basis, and these are good guys that are responsible for one of the best stories I have from my wedding last month. If you ever run into me, ask about the tie clip!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Pedigree play Lima Lima did no running in the sixth. I dropped $32 after scratches.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll zero in on the ninth, the John Morrissey, where I really like #5 THE WINE STEWARD. I’ll keep it simple with a $40 win bet in that one and hope we get the 6-1 morning line price (or something close to it).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS

Best Bet: The Wine Steward, Race 9
Longshot: Credit Risk, Race 6

R1

The Obliterator (MTO)
Minorinconvenience
Honoree

#3 MINORINCONVENIENCE (10-1): Gets a tepid nod in the first of several wide-open races for 2-year-olds on this Thursday card. Someone somewhere thought this colt could run first time out, as he was a 7/5 favorite. I think there’s a chance he needed that effort, and his pedigree says he should stretch out; #5 HONOREE (5/2): Didn’t do much running first time out, but that race was rained off the turf, and his pedigree is turf through and through. This sure seems to be what he wants to do, and John Velazquez sees fit to ride back at second asking; #4 TWIRLING LAD (4-1): Goes out for a barn whose firsters often need a race, but he’s bred well and has been working steadily. He’s by Twirling Candy and boasts a stamina-heavy female pedigree that includes second dam Caroline Thomas, a Grade 2 winner.

R2

Whatarewedoing (MTO)
Devilish Grin
Dolce Vino

#4 DEVILISH GRIN (7/2): Rallied to be beaten less than a length in her unveiling, which came in a race without much early speed. Still, she managed to pass horses late, which isn’t easy for first-time starters to do. A step forward would make her the one to beat; #2 DOLCE VINO (9/2): Also makes her second start, and she goes to the turf after finishing third on dirt earlier this month. Her pedigree says she should move up on the grass, and the addition of blinkers could keep her focused; #6 GREAT ACTRESS (6-1): Was third in the race my top pick exits and should be forwardly placed early on. She’s also eligible to improve, especially for a barn whose horses sometimes move forward after a start or two.

R3

That’s Funny
Lady Orient
D’s a Rock

#5 THAT’S FUNNY (9/2): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment, and this seems like what she wants to do. She was third in a fast race for the level two starts ago, and there certainly appears to be enough early speed in here to set up for her late kick; #7 LADY ORIENT (5/2): Will likely go off favored for a high-percentage barn, but I have some doubts. She takes a big drop in here, and while the class relief could wake her up, she doesn’t tower over this group on speed figures. At her likely price, I’ll take a mild stand against her; #4 D’S A ROCK (7/2): Has won three in a row at Finger Lakes and tries tougher competition here. She’s shown some versatility in central New York, and she wasn’t embarrassed in a pair of tries against New York-bred stakes horses late last year.

R4

Sailaway
Carolina Smokeshow
Spirit of Esther

#3 SAILAWAY (4-1): Drops in class for this one and didn’t sit her desired trip when far, far back on the turf last time out. She wants to be forward, which is a good thing coming out of the Wilson chute. Furthermore, jockey Jose Ortiz likely had several options, and he lands here; #4 CAROLINA SMOKESHOW (4/5): Takes a big drop in search of her first win since late last year, but while she may win at a very short price and make me feel silly, I can’t back her on top. She hasn’t shown much early speed in most of her starts, and in fact, she’s broken badly in her last two outings. At odds-on, she’s a play-against; #7 SPIRIT OF ESTHER (5-1): Comes back to the Wilson chute, the site of her lone career win to date. I don’t think she beat much that day, and the post position is a problem, but she’s another class-dropper who’s certainly been facing far better competition.

R5

Goichman entry
Ryan Elizabeth
Neshika

GOICHMAN ENTRY (7/5): I much prefer #1A MARIA CALLAS, who debuts for Chad Brown and has a monster bottom-side pedigree. Her dam is kin to Grade 1 winner Noble Bird and stakes winner Brother Pat, among others, and that gate work on July 13th hints that she’s got some talent; #4 RYAN ELIZABETH (7/2): Sold for just $30,000 at auction despite a pretty big turf pedigree. Her dam, Abaco, was a serious turf distaffer in her day, and second and third dams Cat Cay and Cadillacing were both graded stakes winners. Frankie Dettori sees fit to hop aboard; #3 NESHIKA (10-1): Was one-paced in her debut downstate, but I think she’ll move forward here at a bit of a price. Her pedigree says she wants to go longer, and this barn’s first-time starters usually aren’t fully cranked.

R6

Run On States
Credit Risk
Avery’s Wonderland

#8 RUN ON STATES (5/2): Did everything but win in her unveiling at Ellis Park, which came against open company. She fell by just a neck that day and comes in to face New York-bred competition, which may represent a class drop; #1 CREDIT RISK (20-1): Has a sneaky pedigree, being kin to Bellacose, who was a massive first-out winner. Her second and third dam were both graded stakes winners, too, and there are a few workouts on her sheet that look solid; #4 AVERY’S WONDERLAND (8-1): Debuts for Rick Dutrow, whose barn has yet to get going at this stand. However, dam Liza Jambalaya is kin to Grade 1 winners Paulassilverlining and Dad’s Caps, and she attracts Joel Rosario for her first lifetime outing.

R7

Geez Eloise (MTO)
Numero Seis
Linarite

#9 NUMERO SEIS (8/5): Takes a drop for Joe Sharp, who’s been one of the hottest trainers on the grounds to this point in the meet. First-call pilot Jose Ortiz will be aboard, and she hits me as a major wire-to-wire threat from the outside post; #4 LINARITE (9/2): Has hit the board in all six prior starts at the Spa and goes first off the claim for Mike Miceli, who doesn’t claim many horses but is very solid with new acquisitions. Her two-back win was a good one, and she’d benefit from my top pick getting tested early; #3 QUICK POWER NAP (6-1): Has shown an aversion to getting her picture taken, as she’s 0-for-12 since the start of 2024. However, she had an excuse last time out, when she went very, very wide and lost by just over a length. Prat rides back, and we’ll see if she can save any ground.

R8

Khafre
Kantarmaci entry
Royal Tryst

#4 KHAFRE (8/5): Appears to be the main speed and could capitalize on a front-running trip beneath Dylan Davis. Linda Rice claimed him last time out, and her stellar record with new acquisitions is well-established; KANTARMACI ENTRY (7/5): I prefer #1A BOLD ENDEAVOR, who just missed when last seen at Aqueduct in April. He’ll make his 50th career start in this spot, and if he sits the kind of stalking trip we’ve seen him sit in the past, he’ll have every chance at his 11th lifetime score; #3 ROYAL TRYST (9/2): Has shown his preferred running style many times. He’s a deep closer who needs a lot of pace in front of him, but if he gets that and a wet track, he’ll have every chance to spring a mild upset.

R9

The Wine Steward
Whatchatalkinabout
Bank Frenzy

#5 THE WINE STEWARD (6-1): Did no running in the Grade 3 Steve Sexton Mile at Lone Star, but he drops in to face New York-breds for the first time in a while in the John Morrissey. Draw lines through that race and last year’s Grade 1 Belmont (where he was just hopelessly overmatched), and his sheet looks far, far better; #9 WHATCHATALKINABOUT (2-1): Eked out a win in the Grade 3 John Nerud back in May and has been working forwardly at Keeneland for Wesley Ward. On figures, he’s the one to beat, but it’s worth noting that he’s never gone seven furlongs before, and this is a pretty strong field for the level; #2 BANK FRENZY (3-1): Has won five of six and has done some of his best running at Saratoga. His best effort would give him a big chance here, but he’s 0-for-2 at this quirky seven-furlong distance and may prefer a two-turn trip.

R10

She’s Cool (MTO)
Annelle
Bread to Run

#9 ANNELLE (6-1): Gets another chance from me in the Thursday finale after misfiring here on Independence Day. That race came against a better group, and the winner, Awesome Czech, is very good over this turf course. She’ll likely get a pace to run at, and two-back win rider Nik Juarez ships in; #10 BREAD TO RUN (8-1): Hasn’t run badly in her three turf routes to date, including a two-back score at Churchill. The post position isn’t ideal, but two-back win rider Luis Saez hops back aboard, and she’s another that should get a solid setup; #5 DYNAMIC ACTRESS (10-1): Looks like the main speed in this event and attracts top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche. Her races this past winter at Tampa were strong, and if she can find that form here, she could lead this bunch a long way.