analysis | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/7/19)

Posted on August 6, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $947.10

It may seem incredibly early for such an announcement, but here in the Bay Area, kids are getting ready to go back to school. The same can be said for teachers, one of whom (a third-grade teacher at the Oakland Unified School District) happens to be my girlfriend. She busts her butt for her kids, and I’m extremely proud of her.

She’s got an Amazon wish list located here. It contains a bunch of supplies that would help the kids she teaches on a daily basis. If you feel generous and want to help some third-graders out, take a look. If you buy something, I’ll owe you a favor. One caveat, though: If we can avoid the sort of favor Don Corleone called in after Sonny was gunned down on the causeway, that’d be great.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My doubles were total busts, and we dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep things simple, as my best bet of the day may be an OK price. That’s #3 LEAD GUITAR in the third race, and she’s the subject of a $10 win/place bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Lead Guitar, Race 3
LONGSHOT: Evaluator, Race 9

Wigwam Baby
Down Royal
Our Frosty

#1 WIGWAM BABY: Seems like a deserving favorite coming back to the steeplechase ranks after a prep at Parx. She was second in this race two summers ago, and a repeat of her two-back effort would make her tough; #3 DOWN ROYAL: Is a consistent sort over fences, and the flat-race prep is a complete throw-out. She generally runs the same race every time, although she does seem to enjoy picking up minor awards; #2 OUR FROSTY: Comes back to fences and would be a contender if she channeled some of her late-2018 and early-2019 form. Those efforts came against weaker groups, but it’s tough to completely ignore a 59-length romp.

Bears Mafia
Legion Storm
Sobersick N Sorry

#1 BEARS MAFIA: Drops in for a tag and looms large against what seems like a weak group for the level. His turf try last time out is a toss, and Carmouche has ridden him well in the past; #7 LEGION STORM: Has picked up eight minor awards in 12 winless starts, but was an OK second at this level last time out. Blinkers come back on and he draws favorably towards the outside; #8 SOBERSICK N SORRY: Gets my pick in the “name of the day” category and could improve at second asking. He was a one-paced fourth last time out, but this barn’s runners usually need a race or two to get going.

Lead Guitar
Qian B C
Alphastest

#3 LEAD GUITAR: Closed very well to be third in her debut, a race where the second-place finisher came back to win at next asking. She gets a huge rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and should improve for a barn that may be heating up; #6 QIAN B C: Was a close-up third going seven furlongs at Belmont and cuts back in distance. He seems to have matured a bit, but I have to wonder if this trip is a bit shorter than he really wants to go; #5 ALPHASTEST: Seems like the main speed and was reeled in last time out when beaten just a half-length. This shorter distance could suit him, and he may be a bit of a price.

Connectivity
Decorated Ace
Warm

#7 CONNECTIVITY: Takes a colossal drop to the claiming ranks after running in a pair of stakes races earlier this year. Even a repeat of her two-back effort, when she was second in an allowance at Keeneland, would make her a formidable foe; #6 DECORATED ACE: Has recorded all three of her wins going two turns on turf, including her last-out victory against slightly weaker competition. She makes her second start since being switched to the sharp Mike Dini outfit and could sit a nice trip; #4 WARM: Comes back to turf in her first start off the claim. She ran well on it three back at Tampa, won on dirt earlier this meet, and recently fired a bullet drill.

Thea’s Theme
Lady Kaza
Critical Value

#2 THEA’S THEME: Hammered for $145,000 last summer and has worked like a promising horse. Jose Ortiz likely had options, but chose to ride this Jeremiah Englehart trainee; #7 LADY KAZA: Has been working steadily for Chad Brown and merits respect. This barn can win with first-time starters, and her second and third dam were both stakes-winners; #6 CRITICAL VALUE: Is the second Englehart trainee in the field, and her pedigree shows speed top and bottom. She appears to have worked with my top pick a bit, and it wouldn’t be shocking if this barn runs 1-2.

Uncle Benny
Archidust
Elektronic

#1 UNCLE BENNY: Makes his 3-year-old debut more than nine months after a troubled-trip second at the Breeders’ Cup. Jason Servis can have a horse ready to run off a long break, and he’s likely matured in his time off; #7 ARCHIDUST: Has won two in a row ahead of this event, including a minor stakes race at Monmouth Park. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure that day and could still be improving; #2 ELEKTRONIC: Ran well at a price in the Grade 3 Quick Call, where he was a fast-closing second at 11-1. The faster they go early, the better his chances appear to be.

Lost in Manhattan
Brush Country
Liam Lets Go

#7 LOST IN MANHATTAN: Drops in class for Danny Gargan, who has enjoyed a very strong meet to this point. He likely needed his last start, which was his first outing since December, and he’s got plenty of early zip; #5 BRUSH COUNTRY: Was second last time out and got claimed out of that race by a barn that doesn’t drop many slips in. The solid local race certainly helps, and he could sit a great stalking trip; #3 LIAM LETS GO: Comes north from Gulfstream Park, where he’s been running against allowance and optional claiming foes. He may find these waters a bit more shallow, and Luis Saez climbing aboard is a plus.

Clench
Laser Loop
El Asesino

#3 CLENCH: Was second behind Shancelot last time out, and that one has since run a hole in the wind over this track. He likes running second or third, but he could be coming into his own in the latter half of his 3-year-old season; #4 LASER LOOP: Rolled home against much weaker earlier this meet and was claimed that day by Gary Contessa. Unlike many others in here, he comes in off of a victory, and he may be closing at a bit of a price; #8 EL ASESINO: Hasn’t won in nearly a year, but he was most recently second in a stronger heat and cuts back in distance. He’s got some flexibility in his running style and should get every chance from an outside post.

Mr. Buff
Evaluator
Dynamax Prime

#2 MR. BUFF: Has won five of his last seven starts and seems to be in top form. If he gets an easy lead, he’ll be very tough, but longshot players may point to the presence of other early speed in this race; #5 EVALUATOR: Makes his 2019 debut for new trainer H. James Bond and could get a perfect setup. Javier Castellano riding is a positive sign, and he’s worked well several times ahead of this race; #4 DYNAMAX PRIME: Ran second to my top selection last time out at Belmont and is another that could benefit from a fast pace. However, while he’s won going two turns in the past, he may be at his best at one-turn routes of ground.

R10

Ghostly Beauty
Teletype
Sweet Gisel

#10 GHOSTLY BEAUTY: Will have to work out a trip from a tough post, but she seems like the one to beat. She just missed behind a horse that has since come back to beat winners, and the third-place finisher won earlier this meet as well; #3 TELETYPE: Was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez last time out and was second behind another next-out winner back in June. She’s been rested since that start and is a contender if she’s ready; #8 SWEET GISEL: Finally tries turf and has a pedigree saying she’ll love it. She’s by Street Boss and out of a Dixieland Band mare, and her 320 turf Tomlinson rating hints that she could take a step forward here for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/4/19)

Posted on August 3, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $977.10

The early portion of Saturday’s card at Saratoga featured at least two 2-year-olds to keep an eye on moving forward. Second-time starter Our Country had some trouble in his debut but stepped up in a big way in the opener, pulling away with authority late. He covered the two-turn race’s last sixteenth of a mile in less than six seconds, which is no small feat for even an older horse, let alone a 2-year-old making his second career start.

Meanwhile, first-time starter Glory Road reminded everyone that, yes, Todd Pletcher still knows how to train 2-year-olds. The first-time starter came from out of the clouds to win at the seven-furlong distance, which is never an easy one for a debuting runner to navigate. His female family is strong (his second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Finder’s Fee), and sire Commissioner was no slouch, either.

One of the most fun parts of each Saratoga meet is seeing promising 2-year-olds flash immense potential. It looks as though these two could have bright futures, and there are undoubtedly more exciting 2-year-olds coming up later in the meet.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We scratched out of everything when World of Trouble didn’t run in the Troy.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on midday doubles that may extract some value out of my best bet of the day. That’s #4 SANTA MONICA, who is a single for me in the fifth (the Grade 3 Waya). She starts $10 doubles that end with #4 BLUE BELT, #9 SUMMER BOURBON, and #10 SUNDAE ON SUNDAY, all of whom figure to be solid prices in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

– – – – –

BEST BET: Santa Monica, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Blue Belt, Race 6

Pure Wow
Ill Will
Daphne Moon

#1 PURE WOW: Showed speed when third in her debut earlier in the meet. Joel Rosario hops aboard, and experience is often a huge advantage in 2-year-old races contested at seven furlongs; #6 ILL WILL: Showed late interest on the turf last time out and has worked well since that effort. This barn’s horses often improve with experience, making her dangerous at a price; #4 DAPHNE MOON: Fetched $525,000 at auction and has worked well leading up to her debut. This barn can win with first-time starters, but it’s tricky to back debuting runners at this distance.

Data Driven
Curious Cal
Orpheus

#2 DATA DRIVEN: Makes his first start off the claim for new trainer Danny Gargan, who’s enjoying a strong meet. This is a class drop for him, and he should be running well late (good luck, Dan Feiss!); #5 CURIOUS CAL: Has won two of three starts this year for Jorge Navarro and comes up from New Jersey. He’s won here before and is a threat to go wire-to-wire; #1 ORPHEUS: Hasn’t won in a while, but was a good second at this level earlier in the meet. He should be running well late at a bit of a price.

Gold for the King
Celtic Chaos
T Loves a Fight

#6 GOLD FOR THE KING: Returns to the state-bred ranks after tackling the likes of Catalina Cruiser downstate. He’s got enough speed to press the pace, which will be helpful given the rail draw; #2 CELTIC CHAOS: Likes Saratoga and has a history of doing his best running in the final quarter-mile. His last-out win was impressive, and the 100 Beyer Speed Figure represents a new career-high; #1 T LOVES A FIGHT: Has run well at Saratoga and enters this event on a three-race win streak. This is a sizable class jump, but it’s tough to argue with the connections taking a shot.

Sketches of Spain
Sparkling Sky
Livin At the Beach

#5 SKETCHES OF SPAIN: Is bred to be a strong turf horse and debuts here for powerhouse connections. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides for Chad Brown, and she’ll be tough if she’s ready; #8 SPARKLING SKY: Fetched $650,000 last September and may be prepared to run a big one right away. She’s worked well over the Oklahoma turf course, which makes sense given that she’s a daughter of More Than Ready; #7 LIVIN AT THE BEACH: Ran third in her debut downstate and stretches out here. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she may be a bit of a price.

Santa Monica
Gentle Ruler
Fools Gold

#4 SANTA MONICA: Looms large in this spot after two straight graded stakes wins this spring. If you toss her Breeders’ Cup dud last fall, she hasn’t run a bad race since coming to North America; #6 GENTLE RULER: Has won four in a row at four different tracks, including a Grade 3 at Delaware Park last time out. There isn’t much speed signed on here, and she may inherit the lead by default; #2 FOOLS GOLD: Was second in a stakes race last time out at Belmont, which came in her first start beyond a mile and a sixteenth. Javier Castellano rides back, and she’s another that could be close to a slow early pace.

Summer Bourbon
Blue Belt
Sundae On Sunday

#9 SUMMER BOURBON: Was claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez and could sit a great trip behind a fast early pace. He’s shown a solid closing kick in several starts at this level, including a romp at Aqueduct back in March; #4 BLUE BELT: Seems like the main speed and hasn’t finished out of the money since November. If you’re playing vertical exotics, he seems like a must-use; #10 SUNDAE ON SUNDAY: Has won two in a row at Finger Lakes and ships in for an astute barn. It helps that he’s a closer, and that could make it easier for him to pick up a check.

Ruler of the Nile (MTO)
Final Frontier
Battle Station

#1 FINAL FRONTIER: Was a close-up third in a swiftly-run race in May that doubled as his first outing since November. He’s crossed the wire first over this turf course before and draws favorably here; #9 BATTLE STATION: Chased the classy Om last time out at Churchill and loves this route. He’s 2-for-2 at Saratoga, including a solid win in an allowance last summer; #2 PAGLIACCI: Rallied to take a starter allowance less than a week ago and is wheeled back quickly by Linda Rice. That’s usually a sign of confidence, although this field seems tougher than what he beat last time out.

Behind the Couch (MTO)
Chiclet’s Dream
Star of the East

#8 CHICLET’S DREAM: Returns to the scene of an impressive victory last summer and almost certainly needed her most recent outing at Belmont. She was running very well late that day, and this two-turn trip should be more preferable; #3 STAR OF THE EAST: Rallied to earn the diploma last time out and tries winners for the first time here. There’s some speed signed on, so another strong effort could very well be in the cards; #2 WAY SMART: Hasn’t run since December but is dangerous if she’s ready. Jose Ortiz gets on for a barn that’s quietly had a stellar season to date.

Rockemperor
Mohawk
Henley’s Joy

#4 ROCKEMPEROR: Was closing very well when third in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby and nearly overcame a terrible post. He draws much more favorably here and has every right to turn the tables in the inaugural Saratoga Derby; #10 MOHAWK: Ships in for Aidan O’Brien after capturing a Group 3 event last time out. He’s repeatedly tried some of the best horses in Europe and even won a Group 2 at Newmarket last fall; #1 HENLEY’S JOY: Pulled off a 20-1 shocker in the Belmont Derby and won’t be anywhere near that price here. A repeat effort makes him a contender, but a bounce is logical given that his last-out effort was by far the best he’s ever run.

R10

Magic Dance
Frank’s Rockette
Miss Peppina

#8 MAGIC DANCE: Pulled away to take the Debutante at Churchill last time out and draws favorably in this event. When Asmussen gets a horse good, they tend to stay good, and she’s done very little wrong; #2 FRANK’S ROCKETTE: Romped in her debut in June and jumps into the graded stakes ranks. She’s worked well here and certainly merits respect for Hall of Famer Bill Mott; #6 MISS PEPPINA: Rallied from way back to graduate at first asking last month at Belmont. 2-year-olds don’t often close in their debuts, and she ran like she’ll appreciate the added distance she gets in this spot.

R11

Patagonia (MTO)
Doswell
Malthael

#10 DOSWELL: Has been a beaten favorite in both of his starts this year, but doesn’t seem to run up against a strong field for the level in the Sunday finale. He’s got a strong closing kick and figures to be the one to hold off late; #3 MALTHAEL: Came back running when second in a similar spot on Independence Day. His running lines are dotted with the names of stakes-caliber runners, and he’s got plenty of back class; #8 STANDUP: Hasn’t run since a failed shot in stakes company back in February. He’s been gelded since then and is a contender if he runs back to his debut effort.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/3/19)

Posted on August 1, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $977.10

It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga, and it’s tough to argue with the quality of the program despite the highlighted divisions both experiencing “down” years. The Whitney attracted McKinzie, Thunder Snow, and Preservationist, while the Test drew Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress and the fleet Bellafina, who may be running at her ideal distance.

It’s a great card, the type that horseplayers and casual fans alike can get excited about. We can go on and on about how the older horses and 3-year-old fillies are likely not great groups. In fact, I’d largely agree with that assessment. However, the horses that could’ve shown up for Saturday’s marquee races did, and sometimes, that’s all we can ask for. Enjoy the day, everyone!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Our key horse in exactas failed to fire in the seventh, but we almost broke even thanks to hitting a $4 seventh-eighth race double. In total, we dropped just 40 cents.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My action comes early in the card, and I’ll attempt to extract value out of #1 WORLD OF TROUBLE in the fifth (the Grade 3 Troy). I’ll play $5 doubles starting in the fourth that use #2 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM, #3 PATRIOT DRIVE, and #7 HAY DAKOTA and single World of Trouble. I’ll also single World of Trouble in $5 doubles starting in the fifth that end with #6 PICASSO and #8 FREE ENTERPRISE in the sixth. Finally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the fourth that uses all of these horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $31.

– – – – –

BEST BET: World of Trouble, Race 5
LONGSHOT: Battle of Blenheim, Race 4

Our Country
Brewmeister
Shamrocket

#8 OUR COUNTRY: Had a troubled trip in his debut earlier this meet and has every right to move forward off of that performance. He gets Lasix for the first time, and experience can be very helpful for 2-year-olds in route races; #6 BREWMEISTER: Debuts for Chad Brown and has the pedigree to be a good one. He’s by Point of Entry, and his dam is a daughter of Giant’s Causeway and Canadian champion Ginger Brew; #10 SHAMROCKET: Doesn’t draw a great post, but merits a look at a price. He’s a half to four winners, his second dam is Grade 1 winner Nany’s Sweep, and Flavien Prat has the mount.

Grumps Little Tots
The Rock Says
Felix in Fabula

#3 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Was last seen running second in the Easy Goer Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Toss the Wood Memorial, and his record looks considerably better; #8 THE ROCK SAYS: Hung a bit when third at this route on opening day. He’ll add blinkers for this event, though that may make it tough to see if he’s giving the field the people’s eyebrow; #6 FELIX IN FABULA: Prevailed earlier this meet at this route against weaker competition. He was claimed by an astute barn that day and may be ready for the jump in class.

Extreme Force
Wayne O
Glory Road

#3 EXTREME FORCE: Was third in his debut, and that day’s runner-up came back to win earlier in the meet. This barn isn’t known for success with first-time starters, so it’s conceivable that he may have needed the initial outing; #5 WAYNE O: Has trained like a very good horse leading up to his debut for Steve Asmussen. He hammered for $750,000 at auction last summer and may be ready to run right away; #9 GLORY ROAD: Fetched $220,000 at auction last September despite a modest pedigree and has worked well for Todd Pletcher. If there’s any hesitation here (or with my runner-up), it’s because it’s tough for a horse to debut at this tricky distance.

Take Your Place (MTO)
Battle of Blenheim
Hay Dakota

#2 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM: Ran fifth against a few of these rivals earlier this meet, but may not have liked the wet turf course. He does his best running over firm going, and this barn has had plenty of success with new acquisitions on turf in the past; #7 HAY DAKOTA: Responded to the claim last time out with a strong win at Churchill Downs. The faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be; #3 PATRIOT DRIVE: Has won three in a row and jumps up in class for this event. He’s never finished out of the money in three local starts and seems to be in career-best form.

World of Trouble
Wet Your Whistle
Disco Partner

#1 WORLD OF TROUBLE: Is one of the top sprinters in the country and looms large in this spot. He rolled home in the Grade 1 Jaipur back in June, and his best race would thump these; #5 WET YOUR WHISTLE: Has won four in a row, including the Grade 1 Highlander at Woodbine. My top pick represents a different kind of animal than the ones he’s been facing, but a speed duel would certainly work in this one’s favor; #2 DISCO PARTNER: Has been a mainstay on the New York circuit, but it’s fair to wonder if the 7-year-old’s best days are behind him. He’s won just once in his last seven starts and has lost to World of Trouble twice during that stretch.

Free Enterprise
Picasso
Muchacho

#8 FREE ENTERPRISE: Was beaten less than a length in his debut at Belmont and seems like the one to beat here. He’s worked well since that performance and should be prominent early; #6 PICASSO: Rallied to be third in his unveiling back in May, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. His pedigree (by Tapit, out of an Unbridled’s Song mare) suggests he’ll improve with experience; #1 MUCHACHO: Has run fairly well in two starts to date and has turned in two strong local drills ahead of this event. He adds Lasix here, and forward progression would give him a shot to hit the board at a price.

Ticonderoga
Voodoo Song
Lucullan

#8 TICONDEROGA: Drops down in class and goes back to a two-turn route of ground, one that he’s shown he appreciates. There’s a lot of speed signed on, and he should come rolling late; #7 VOODOO SONG: Almost certainly needed the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple, which was his first start since October. His most recent work was sparkling, and a return to top form would make him a major player; #2 LUCULLAN: Came back running off of a long layoff and steps back into stakes company here. He’s hit the board in eight of his 10 lifetime starts, and some of those have come against top-class turf horses.

Bellafina
Serengeti Empress
Royal Charlotte

#2 BELLAFINA: Makes her first start since May, and does so at what may be her favorite distance. She doesn’t necessarily need the lead, and that could be huge in a race with so much early speed signed on; #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS: Stole the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on the lead and followed it up with a good second in the Grade 1 Acorn behind Guarana. She’s got enough speed to not be hindered by the rail, which could be key; #5 ROYAL CHARLOTTE: Has won all four of her starts to date and tries Grade 1 company for the first time. These are pretty deep waters, but she’s got the right running style to make an impact in the Grade 1 Test.

McKinzie
Thunder Snow
Preservationist

#6 MCKINZIE: Nearly overcame an eventful trip in the Grade 1 Met Mile, where he steadied several times and was even hit by a bird. He’s shown some flexibility with regard to his running style, and his best race would make him tough; #4 THUNDER SNOW: Was third in the Met Mile, but may want more distance than he got that day. An extra furlong could help the globe-trotter, and he may sit a comfortable trip on or near the lead; #8 PRESERVATIONIST: Overpowered Catholic Boy in the Grade 2 Suburban and may be improving. However, this seems like a much tougher group on the whole, and he might need to take that step forward in order to contend.

R10

Capla Temptress
Got Stormy
Stella di Camelot

#7 CAPLA TEMPTRESS: Broke through with a win last month at Delaware Park and gets another try going two turns here. She was second in the Grade 2 Lake Placid last summer, and also won a Grade 3 at a similar two-turn configuration late last year; #8 GOT STORMY: Has chased some of the top horses in the division and gets a bit of class relief here. Most recently, she was second in a Grade 2 at Churchill Downs, and she earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure in that race; #9 STELLA DI CAMELOT: Made up a lot of ground late when third in the Grade 3 Intercontinental at Belmont. She won at this distance last fall at Belmont, and it’s tough to poke holes in the connections.

R11

Three Outlaws
Veterans Beach
Brockmoninoff

#11 THREE OUTLAWS: Makes his second start off of a long layoff and gets Lasix for the first time. His comeback race was fine, and Luis Saez chooses to ride him back for Brian Lynch; #12 VETERANS BEACH: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but must overcome a very tough post. He may need to use some of his speed to clear this field going into the field; #6 BROCKMONINOFF: Hasn’t run since October, but he likes this route and will be dangerous if he’s ready to run. This barn is due to get going and knows how to win with horses coming off of long layoffs.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/2/19)

Posted on July 31, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $977.50

Two things today. First, let’s all extend a hearty Saratoga welcome to Joe and Natalie Nevills, as well as housemates Nicole Russo and Penelope Miller. You’ll know there are hijinks and/or shenanigans afoot if Joe goes flying through the front door of the home they’re renting in a fashion similar to Jazz from “The Fresh Prince of Bel Air.” This usually means a game of Totopoly (the most intense board game ever conceived) has gone horribly wrong for someone. Pump him full of Big Red Spring water and he’ll likely be fine.

Secondly, news broke Thursday that NYRA will join the list of circuits offering a 20-cent jackpot Pick Six wager. I’m no Pick Six player, so maybe I’m not the best person to comment on this, but I could not hate this move more. Instituting a massive change like this mid-meet is a lousy decision, and given the reported mandatory payouts on August 18th and September 2nd (as tweeted by DRF’s David Grening), there won’t be any time to build up a massive pool. This was a short-sighted slap in the face to an audience racing desperately needs to cater to, and this wager will get none of my betting money.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Neither horse I used in the fifth race won, and while longshot of the day Lune Lake did outrun her 16-1 odds, she didn’t hit the board. We dropped $26.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: It’s Hall of Fame Day, so it only makes sense that my action revolves around the Grade 2 race named in its honor. It goes as the seventh, and I’ll key #7 GLOBAL ACCESS in $4 exactas above and below #5 CASA CREED and #8 MOON COLONY. Additionally, I’ll use all three of these horses in $4 doubles starting in the seventh that single #2 TOM’S D’ETAT in the eighth (the Alydar).

TOTAL WAGERED: $28

– – – – –

BEST BET: Concrete Rose, Race 9
LONGSHOT: Appealing Briefs, Race 4

Justice of War
Go Get That
Odie

#8 JUSTICE OF WAR: Drops in for a tag for the first time and looms large as the likely favorite. He was third in his debut here last summer and seems to have caught a weak field for the level; #6 GO GET THAT: Has shown some speed against better horses and goes out for a barn that’s had some success already this meet. His July 19th work here looks solid; #3 ODIE: Didn’t get off to a great start last time out in the slop and is certainly eligible to take a step forward. He was a good second at this level two back at Keeneland.

Cool as You Like
Cover Photo
Promise Me Roses

#3 COOL AS YOU LIKE: Returns to her favorite track and makes her first start for Linda Rice, who has a strong record with new acquisitions. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for the first time, and she’ll likely be prominent early; #1 COVER PHOTO: Ships up from Maryland and drops in for a tag. Her connections thought enough of her to try a stakes race three back, and she’ll be running well late; #6 PROMISE ME ROSES: Is a very tricky read. She was in very good form over the winter at Aqueduct and goes to a barn that’s having a good meet, but she had no excuse last time out against similar-quality opposition.

Light in the Sky
Cake
My Sassy Sarah

#3 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Got pinched at the start in her unveiling earlier in the meet. That race was rained off the turf, and provided she gets to run on the lawn, she has every right to run to a pedigree that says she’s a solid grass horse; #7 CAKE: Hammered for $100,000 last August and debuts for Chad Brown. Her 350 turf Tomlinson figure is one of the highest in this field; #9 MY SASSY SARAH: Debuts for a barn that’s due to get going at the meet. She’s by Summer Front and out of a Street Cry mare, so turf should be no problem, and she’s turned in several strong local drills.

Way Early
Appealing Briefs
Macagone

#8 WAY EARLY: Hasn’t run since December, but raced in several big spots a season ago. He was second in the Grade 2 Penn Mile, and the most recent workouts indicate he may be maturing as a 4-year-old; #7 APPEALING BRIEFS: Has never finished worse than third in four starts at Saratoga and stretches back out to a two-turn trip, one that should play to his strengths. Jose Ortiz gets the call, and we may get a price; #1 MACAGONE: Makes his second start for Jason Servis, and runs here off of a second-place finish at Monmouth. At eight years old, he may be slightly past his peak, but it helps that the winner of his most recent race has come back to win again.

Planet Trailblazer
Chief Know It All
Beyond the Green

#9 PLANET TRAILBLAZER: Has not run poorly in nearly a year and has won five of his last seven starts. He likes Saratoga, and it helps that the last-out winner from his most recent event has since come back to win again; #6 CHIEF KNOW IT ALL: Comes back to the right level after a failed shot for a $32,000 tag. He’s been gelded since his last start, and he beat similar-quality opposition two back at Churchill Downs; #7 BEYOND THE GREEN: Ships in from Finger Lakes for a barn that knows how to win races here. He’s won three of his last four, and we may get a price given the jump in class.

The Green Mo’ster
Soulmate
Bemma’s Boy

#7 THE GREEN MO’STER: Drops in class in his first start for a talented young trainer and looms large in this spot. Anything close to the form he showed in his two-back win at Gulfstream would allow him to tower over these; #2 SOULMATE: Prevailed in a slowly-run race last time out at Gulfstream and faces a better field here. However, Wesley Ward knows how to keep horses on the right track, and he could factor into the exotics at a price; #5 BEMMA’S BOY: Hasn’t won in a while but showed improvement when third in his first start for Mike Maker earlier in the meet. Further improvement gives him a big shot to hit the board.

Global Access
Casa Creed
Moon Colony

#7 GLOBAL ACCESS: Is a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out. He’s run well going two turns before and could appreciate the return to such a route; #5 CASA CREED: Was a close-up third in the swiftly-run Manila Stakes at Belmont. He hasn’t won in a while, but the last-out effort could mean he’s maturing in the latter half of his 3-year-old campaign; #8 MOON COLONY: Faded after setting the pace in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby but is 2-for-2 at today’s one-mile distance. However, both of those wins came over wet turf, conditions he may not get in this event.

Tom’s d’Etat
Carlino
American Tattoo

#2 TOM’S D’ETAT: Has been running against far better horses for most of the year and will be very tough to beat. He loves Saratoga, and it’s not hard to see his connections using this as a springboard to bigger and better things; #6 CARLINO: Won at this route last year and cuts back after a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 Suburban at Belmont. There’s some speed signed on here, and that could set things up for this one’s late kick; #5 AMERICAN TATTOO: Bounced back from a rough American debut with a win at Belmont in June. He was a Group 1 winner in his native Argentina and could be rediscovering that form.

Concrete Rose
Olendon
Happen

#5 CONCRETE ROSE: Has emerged as one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country and seems very tough in the first-ever Saratoga Oaks. The short field should ensure a clean trip, and it would take significant regression on her part for anyone else to win this; #1 OLENDON: Goes to the Chad Brown barn and gets Lasix for the first time. She was bet in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and was second in a Group 1 at Longchamp two back; #2 HAPPEN: Is one of two invaders shipping from Europe for Aidan O’Brien. She won a Group 3 two back at The Curragh and is another that figures to benefit from first-time Lasix.

R10

Recess
Mrs. Orb
Farcical

#6 RECESS: Was a close-up fourth in her first start for a tag in June. She’s run well going two turns, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for trainer Todd Pletcher; #7 MRS. ORB: Has had many chances, but came off the bench running when second at this level downstate. Improvement second off the layoff is logical, especially given this barn’s stats with similar runners; #11 FARCICAL: Ran third against straight maidens a few weeks ago at Delaware and is a contender if she draws in off the AE list. Castellano is listed to ride, and she could be running well late.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/1/19)

Posted on July 30, 2019 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,003.50

Some of my favorite days in the racing business came leading up to the 2016 Breeders’ Cup. I was on-site at Santa Anita handling social media for TVG, and even though that often meant I was rolling into the parking lot at about 5 a.m., I loved every second of it. This was largely due to the people who were there with me (ask me about when a private clocker went off on Neil Drysdale; that’s a great story for another time and place).

The most respected member of that group, without question, was Richard Hazelton, who was there with his son Scott (the longtime HRTV and TVG reporter). It was a blast watching horses work while picking the brain of someone who won nearly 5,000 races over the course of a long career as a trainer.

Richard Hazelton passed away Tuesday. He was 88 years old, and there’s no question he lived a full life. He was a credit to the sport, and the racing world is a lesser place without him in it. My sympathies go out to Scott, the entire Hazelton family, and to everyone who had the pleasure of spending some time with Richard over the years.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Wednesday was the best day of the season for me in this section. We hit the eighth race exacta for $3, and the double connecting the seventh and eighth races for $4. In total, our $30 investment returned $253.50 and got us back in black for the meet.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to try to extract value from my best bet of the day with $10 doubles that start in the fifth. I’ll use #3 LUNE LAKE (my longshot of the day) and #7 GALADRIEL’S LIGHT to start, and I’ll finish by singling #3 GRAY NILE in the sixth. Additionally, because she’ll likely be a crazy price, I’ll put $2 across the board on Lune Lake as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $26

– – – – –

BEST BET: Gray Nile, Race 6
LONGSHOT: Lune Lake, Race 5

Summer Sangria
Dan the Man Can
Smite

#9 SUMMER SANGRIA: Debuts for Wesley Ward and seems to loom large in this restricted maiden event. She’s by Maclean’s Music and out of an Into Mischief mare, so she has every right to be precocious; #10 DAN THE MAN CAN: Showed speed when third in his debut earlier in the meet. The post position is a problem, but any improvement from his debut would make him formidable; #7 SMITE: Has worked steadily and debuts for a barn that must be respected with firsters on turf. Luis Saez has had a strong meet to this point as well.

Lady’s Island
Repole entry
No Deal

#4 LADY’S ISLAND: Has won five of six starts this season and ships up from Gulfstream for new trainer Danny Gargan. She seems to be the main speed here, and if she gets loose, look out; REPOLE ENTRY: I prefer #1A ARCHUMYBABY, who misfired last time out but has solid back form. She’s a nine-time winner that draws a cushy outside post; #2 NO DEAL: Was second in a swiftly-run optional claiming event downstate and has shown a strong closing kick in the past. If someone goes with my top pick early, she could stand to benefit at a nice price.

Gullo entry
Pletcher entry
Vaya Con Dios

GULLO ENTRY: I prefer #1 REJECTED AGAIN, who ran well when second beaten less than two lengths in his debut. The blinkers go on, and he could take a step forward at second asking; PLETCHER ENTRY: I prefer #2B MICROSCOPE, who needs a scratch to draw in. He’s got some solid works at Monmouth, and this barn is too good to be hitting at just an 11% clip; #3 VAYA CON DIOS: Flashed some speed against straight maidens earlier in the meet before fading to sixth. This seems like a softer group, and he may have needed that initial outing.

Memories Eternal
Molly’s Nighthawk
Ideational

#7 MEMORIES ETERNAL: Comes back to the right level after two failed tries against straight maidens. Her race against maiden claimers three back wasn’t bad, and she has a running style that hints she’ll like two turns; #9 MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK: Has been competitive in three turf starts at this level. She’s found some trouble at the start in each of her last two, and she’ll be a contender with a clean break here; #1 IDEATIONAL: Burned money when 2-1 in her debut back in November and has not been seen since. She could certainly win, but the workouts appear slow and she almost certainly will not be a square price at the windows.

Galadrial’s Light
Lune Lake
Shanghai Bonnie

#7 GALADRIAL’S LIGHT: Cuts back to a sprint after tiring a bit going a mile downstate. Her win going seven furlongs two back was quite good, and she seems to have caught a weak group in her return to shorter distances; #3 LUNE LAKE: Almost certainly needed her last race, which came nearly 10 months after an outing where something almost certainly went wrong. Toss those two, and you’re left with a horse that’s run well at this route and will likely be a big price; #9 SHANGHAI BONNIE: Certainly seems like the main speed in here and gets a strong “speed rider” in Carmouche. She’ll almost certainly make the lead; the question is, can she last when the real running starts?

Gray Nile
Curlin’s Knight
Inclunation

#3 GRAY NILE: Takes a massive class drop and returns to the site of his lone win to date. These waters are far more shallow than the ones he’s been swimming in, and anything close to last year’s winning effort would make him very tough; #6 CURLIN’S KNIGHT: Has been competitive in three Maryland starts and comes north for this event. Jose Ortiz gets the mount, and he’s shown he can get a two-turn route of ground; #5 INCLUNATION: Graduated last time out and was claimed by an outfit that hits at a strong 24% clip with new acquisitions. He’s hit the board in six of nine career starts, but this is his first outing going two turns on dirt.

Passporttovictory (MTO)
Lovely La La
Broken Border

#6 LOVELY LA LA: Was a beaten favorite last time out, but she ran like she wants two turns. She gets that route here, and she also may get a favorable setup on or near a moderate early pace; #3 BROKEN BORDER: Won for the first time since October of 2017 last time out and looms large for a barn on a real hot streak. However, her one-turn efforts seem stronger than her two-turn races, which is worth noting; #10 VIP NATION: Merits a look underneath at a price. She gets a big rider switch to Castellano and has run her best races around two turns, including a win three back at Aqueduct. DIRT SELECTIONS: PASSPORTTOVICTORY, MAIDEN BEAUTY, CARTWHEEL.

Free Kitty (MTO)
My Sister Nat
Kumin entry

#5 MY SISTER NAT: Was the victim of a horrible race shape in her American debut, when she rated well behind a slow early pace and still rallied for third. She should be in better form here, and if the horse that won a Group 3 in France last year shows up, she’ll be tough; KUMIN ENTRY: I prefer #1 MIGHTY SCARLETT, who has flashed talent at times and won at this route last year. #1A EMPRESSOFTHENILE, though, does have a win here as well and may benefit from class relief; #2 CALL ME KAYLA: Has won two in a row and stretches out for Mike Maker. This is certainly a class test, but she may get a chance to dictate terms early on. DIRT SELECTIONS: FREE KITTY, TANYA’S GEM, KUMIN ENTRY.

Marconi
Rocketry
Curlin Road

#1 MARCONI: Found the waters a bit too deep in the Grade 2 Suburban, but seems to get a much more agreeable spot here. He wants as much ground as possible and may be alone on the front end; #8 ROCKETRY: Has made a habit out of chasing Marconi and gets a bit more ground than he’s previously had in this race. He won a Grade 2 at this distance last year, but will there be enough pace to set up for him here?; #4 CURLIN ROAD: Stretches out in distance, but did run pretty well back in 2017 going long on dirt. He won a Grade 3 that year before chasing Collected, Arrogate, and Accelerate in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Perhaps his best days are behind him, but he may be in a good spot to pick up a check at a price.

R10

Quiet Out East (MTO)
Worth a Shot
Jimmy Jazz

#12 WORTH A SHOT: Is one of a few contenders on the AE list that needs some luck to run here. His turf debut off of a long layoff was sharp, and his pedigree says he’ll embrace two turns; #11 JIMMY JAZZ: Was beaten a neck last time out downstate and has run well in both of his 2019 outings. Further progression would make him tough should he draw in; #6 ZECHARIAH: Could take a big step forward in his first start as a gelding. His last start came off of a very long layoff, and he did display some form when a close-up third going a mile last spring at Belmont. DIRT SELECTIONS: QUIET OUT EAST, RISP, MAKE MOTIME.