analysis

2017 Queen’s Plate Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 7/2/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Woodbine’s annual racing extravaganza is coming up Sunday. The power-packed card is headlined by the $1 million Queen’s Plate for 3-year-olds bred in Canada, and the card also features many other races with large, wide-open fields.

Making the card even more appealing to the average horseplayer are lower minimum bets for multi-race exotic wagers. Unlike in the U.S., where these wagers are in 50-cent increments, Woodbine’s minimums are 20 cents, and since a large majority of players are playing at that level, the payoff disparity is nowhere close to what one may expect. I’ve got two Pick Fives and two Pick Fours throughout the card, and the lower minimums allow me to spread very deep in certain spots. Let’s get to it!

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 2,8
R3: 1,2,3,9
R4: 1,2,4,6
R5: 10
R6: 3,5

64 Bets, $12.80

This is the home of our first guaranteed pool of the day, as this sequence boasts a minimum pool of $50,000. I thought it was a tricky wager to navigate, and again, this is where the lower minimum really helps.

Majestic Slew will likely be a pretty heavy favorite in the second. He’s won three races in a row and showed some flexibility last time out, rating from further back than usual and still getting up to win. If you want to single him, I get it, but Something Awesome is appealing cutting back to his preferred distance, and that one should be rolling late.

Races three and four are very difficult, and I’m hoping going four-deep in each leg is enough. If you saw this page Saturday night, you saw that I liked Biloxi Bay in the fifth. Unfortunately, the 12-1 shot, one I thought was quite live, scratched, so I’m singling Carlos Sixes, who was second behind Queen’s Plate contender Aurora Bay last out and will likely be a pretty heavy favorite.

The sixth is the King Edward, and Tower of Texas is the one to beat off a strong performance at this level last time out. I’ll also use Monster Bea, who had the deck stacked against him last time out. The early pace was not fast that day, but he still rallied to finish a strong second. He’s run competitive races at this level before, and he should be tuned up in his third start of the year.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 1,2,4,6
R5: 10
R6: 3,5,6
R7: 4,6

24 Bets, $4.80

This sequence seems a bit chalky, but I did throw a few prices in there. In a departure from my Pick Five ticket, I added Shakhimat in the King Edward. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed signed on, and the presence of Javier Castellano is a plus. He certainly needs to improve to win this, but the setup is there, and I wanted a piece of him in some fashion in case that happens.

The seventh is an allowance race with an 8/5 favorite. That’s Synthesize, but I don’t think he’s a cinch. He’s lost his last six races, all at this level and never at higher odds than 4-1. My top pick is actually Lions Bay, who sits at a juicy 6-1 on the morning line. If you toss out his turf races (0-for-6) and only consider his synthetic form (5-for-19, six minor awards), he fits.

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #6

R6: 3,5
R7: 4,6,7
R8: 3,4
R9: 4,5
R10: 1,3,11,13

96 Bets, $19.20

I’m going fairly narrow to start and then opening things up in the Queen’s Plate, which doubles as the payoff leg of this sequence.

I’ve dissected the first two legs already. In a deviation from the Pick Four, I’m adding Bourbon First in the seventh. I don’t love the horse, especially at 2-1, but the low-budget approach I’m taking allows me to throw him in at not much extra cost.

The eighth is the Singspiel, and I view this as a two-horse race between morning line favorite Reporting Star and third choice Bangkok, both of whom want every bit of this 12-furlong route. I’m taking a stand against Bullards Alley, who has not won in more than a year and will be a pretty short price. I’m also going two-deep in the Dance Smartly, using 8/5 favorite Suffused and 2-1 second choice Rainha Da Bateria.

This brings us to the Queen’s Plate, and I’ve got a few thoughts. I want no part of any of the runners coming out of the Plate Trial, which was far from an impressive race. My ticket includes three logical horses. Probable favorite Holy Helena was sharp in winning the Woodbine Oaks, Channel Maker was a good second in the Grade 3 Marine against open competition, and Aurora Way showed plenty of promise winning on debut.

My big price breaks on the outside of this 13-horse field. Watch Me Strut has one bad race on his record, which came two back after a layoff of nearly six months. He rallied from well back in a paceless race last time out, and I think this race has some speed signed on. State of Honor will certainly go early, and I have a tough time believing the other riders will give him an easy lead. The faster they go early, the better this one will like it, and at 30-1, I have to throw him in.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #10

R10: 1,3,11,13
R11: 5,7,8,11
R12: 2
R13: 3,6,7,9,10,13

96 Bets, $19.20

We come to the sequence that includes my lone single on the entire card. It’s Made You Look, who gets his preferred trip and some class relief in the Charlie Barley. I’ve spread around him, and hopefully we can get a price or two home to make this pay.

I’ve used some of the logical horses in the 11th, as well as first-time starter Heads ‘n Tails, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and may not need to be much to win. The 13th is a total mess, and if you want to hit the “ALL” button, I can’t say I blame you. I narrowed my ticket down to six horses, and hopefully, I’ve got the winner. Of the prices I used, Jail Time intrigues me the most. He’s 10-1 and took a big step forward last time out. More progression from start two to start three would make him a major player.

Churchill Downs Pick Six Analysis/Ticket: 6/30/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Friday is closing day at Churchill Downs, and that means a mandatory payout in the 20-cent Pick Six. As I’ve detailed in the past, this means a large pool and an attractive wagering opportunity, so I’m jumping in.

My ticket ultimately costs $28.80, and it assumes fast and firm conditions. Additionally, the ticket is structured in a pretty odd way given the layout of the sequence. I’ll dissect it below…

Race #5: 2,9,12

We open with a $16,000 claimer that’s drawn a field of 12. Some bigger tickets may punch the “ALL” button here, as this has all the makings of a race that could go to a huge longshot.

My top pick isn’t a bomb, but 5-1 on the morning line is pretty attractive. I’m referring to Fat Daddy, who turned the corner last time out when romping by more than five lengths. That was against a much weaker field, but his race three back (the only other time he ran on a fast dirt track) was okay, and this will be his first start for Mike Maker. A repeat of his last race will make him tough to beat.

I’ll also use Blabimir and Caniform, who figure to be the top two betting choices. Blabimir drops way down in class after shipping in from California, while Caniform has improved with every start and should be rolling late.

Race #6: 5,6

This is the Bashford Manor for 2-year-olds, and this seems like a two-horse race between Copper Bullet and Ten City. I’m using them both. Both were runaway maiden winners when last seen, and I love the outside draws that both get in this spot.

Race #7: 2,4,9,10,11,12

I thought this was the most wide-open race in the sequence. It’s a maiden race going long on the turf, and there are some appealing prices in here.

There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, and as such, 10-1 shot Sharm El Sheikh is my top pick. He’s a consistent sort whose lone bad race came at five furlongs, and this route should be to his liking. His trainer has had a strong meet, and I hope we get a price on him on Friday night.

With that in mind, I’m far from in love with any of these horses. This is another potential “ALL” spot for bigger tickets, and if you have the bankroll to go that route, that may not be a bad idea.

Race #8: 1,6,9,11

This is the Debutante for 2-year-old fillies. Contrary to its counterpart (the Bashford Manor), this race drew a huge field, and it presents an interesting handicapping puzzle.

Sunny Skies is probably the best horse in here, especially adding Lasix at second asking. However, there are some other very strong 2-year-old fillies in here. She’s a Julie thumped a next-out winner in her debut, Amberspatriot just missed in stakes company last month, and Lady O’Toole overcame plenty of trouble to win going away in her unveiling.

Race #9: 7

Race #10: 4

Yep, I’m ending my ticket with back-to-back singles. My best bet of the sequence is the first one, which is Drop Dead Red in the ninth. On paper, she appears to be the lone true early speed horse in the field. She loves this surface, romped by nearly 10 lengths last time out, and while this is a step up in class, it’s not like this is a tremendous allowance race.

The payoff leg is the Kelly’s Landing, a seven-furlong stakes race. I opted to single Limousine Liberal, who has won two in a row (largely against better competition). If you’re playing a bigger ticket, you may also want to use The Player, who appears to be ready to run off a long layoff. That one’s best is pretty good, but I’ll bank on a sprinter that appears to be in career form.

THE TICKET

R5: 2,9,12
R6: 5,6
R7: 2,4,9,10,11,12
R8: 1,6,9,11
R9: 7
R10: 4

144 Bets, $28.80

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets (6/24/17), PLUS: Betting the Ohio Derby on a Budget

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

After responses to an impromptu Twitter poll, I’ve taken a look at Saturday’s card at Belmont Park, as well as the $500,000 Ohio Derby. Unfortunately, the vote was conducted before strong overnight rain swept through Long Island, and as such, the Belmont card has been ravaged by scratches and races taken off the turf. If you came Friday or early Saturday morning, you saw Pick Five and Pick Four tickets that no longer apply. Below are my updated efforts, as well as an attempt to play the Ohio Derby on a $20 budget.

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1, Belmont Park

R1: 1,4
R2: 6,7,8
R3: 1,3
R4: 2,3,5
R5: 10,12

72 Bets, $36

My opening leg single scratched due to the mud, and two races within the sequence (the third and the fifth) came off the turf. I’m going two-deep to start, using Kissin Cassie and Bellelarama (the latter of whom moves up significantly on a wet track). My original ticket had Giant Ending in the second leg, but I threw her out due to her recent poor race in the slop. I’m still three-deep there, and I likely have the three betting favorites.

We’re down to a field of four in the third race, and I think it’s a match race between Puca and Jewels N Rome. I added Shoot the Gap into the fourth leg (to go along with likely betting favorites Basic Hero and Won’t Burn), and I’m two-deep in the payoff leg. Frostie Anne has strong dirt form (especially if you toss her clunkers over the inner track at Aqueduct, which she clearly does not like), and Treatherlikestar won at first asking on dirt before trying races that were simply too tough.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7, Belmont Park

R7: 3
R8: 6
R9: 3,5,7,8,9
R10: ALL

40 Bets, $20

I thought this was a great sequence when all races were projected to stay on the turf. However, the last two races (one of which is still on turf) are still extremely wide-open. If we can get a price home in one or both of those races, this could pay more than you think.

I was really looking forward to the seventh when it was on turf, as I didn’t like probable favorite Elenzee. We’re down to a field of four, and main-track-only entrant Broken Engagement looks very tough. There’s no other early speed left in the race, and I think he’ll have things all his own way on the front end at a short price.

The second of two back-to-back singles comes in the Saturday feature. The eighth race is the Wild Applause, and while some quality fillies have signed on, I think Rubilinda could be a different kind of animal. It’s not easy to rate at first asking, but this regally-bred daughter of Frankel did just that and won going away. Improvement is logical at second asking, and I think she could be a very nice turf filly for Chad Brown, who seems to have a barn full of them.

This structure allows us to spread in the last two legs, which is good because, as mentioned, they’re not easy. The two Chad Brown trainees (Call Provision and Converge) may be best in the ninth, but the former comes off a layoff and the latter is untested at this distance, so I opted for a bit more coverage. Meanwhile, the last race is complete and total chaos given the move to dirt. None of these horses have much in the way of proven form, so I’ve bought the race and will hope for a price if we can get to that point.

BETTING THE OHIO DERBY ON A $20 BUDGET

In handicapping the Ohio Derby, I took the approach that the Kentucky Derby is a complete throw-out for all horses who ran there. None of them ran well that day, for various reasons, and the wet track certainly didn’t make things any easier.

Girvin is certainly a logical favorite, and he’s my top pick and exacta key. His races prior to the Derby were pretty sharp, and much was made about foot issues he had leading up to that race. He’s worked well since the Derby, and most recently fired a five-furlong bullet drill on June 17th.

The other horse I’ll use in my bigger exacta play is Untrapped. He hasn’t won in a while, but I firmly believe he could sit a dream trip in this race. There isn’t much early speed, and he’s shown an ability to be forwardly placed. He’s a decent price (9/2) on the morning line, and he could produce some value in the exotics.

I’ll also throw in the three-horse entry of Talk Less, Vibe, and Game Over, as well as Blue Grass winner Irap. Of the entry, I most prefer Vibe, who has yet to run a bad race in four starts this season and whose speed figures are on an upward trend. I actually took a flyer on him two back at Charles Town, and he ran a sneaky-good race that day at 28-1 considering how much he struggled going into the first turn.

Meanwhile, I’m not crazy about Irap, who may be overbet given his perfect-trip win in the Blue Grass two back. However, with the relative lack of early zip signed on, there’s a chance he gets that trip again. As such, I need to at least throw him into my smaller exacta play.

THE BETS

$4 exacta box: 3,5 ($8)
$2 exacta key box: 5 w/1,2,3 ($12, $20)

Gulfstream Park Rainbow Six Ticket and Analysis: 6/17/17

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday’s Rainbow Six at Gulfstream Park boasts a mandatory payout, and as such, it’s worth taking a swing at. I was able to come up with a $36 ticket (for a 20-cent wager), one that includes two singles. Both singles will likely be popular ones, but if we can get some prices home around them, we could be in line for a nice score. Here’s how I’ll play the sequence.

RACE #6: 1,2,5,6,9

We open things up with a sprint for 2-year-old fillies. Go Astray figures to be favored, given back-to-back second-place finishes here last month. However, she had things all her own way last time out and hit a wall in the stretch. She could win, but I feel a need to spread in the kickoff leg.

I’m going five-deep, and there are two debutantes with pedigrees worth noting. Crazy for Sofia has been working well, and her dam is a half to six winners. Additionally, Iwannatalkaboutme is a big price on the morning line (15-1), but the presence of a 16% rider is a plus, and her second dam is a half to the speedy Birdonthewire.

RACE #7: 8,9

I’m taking a bit of a stand here, using just two horses in a turf race others may spread in. Golden Point is my top pick. He made a big middle move in a race with very little early speed last time out, and this spot figures to set up better for his late-running style. I’ll also use Vedelago, although he had a perfect trip last time out. That said, he’s shown in the past that he doesn’t need the lead to run well, and I think he could sit a good stalking trip just off the pace.

RACE #8: 1

My first single comes in the third leg, a maiden claiming event. I’ll take a stand with Dardo, who debuted in the slop earlier this month and had a horrible trip. He fell back abruptly midway through the race, but rallied to finish a strong second against a slightly higher level of competition. Improvement is logical at second asking, and while the rail draw isn’t ideal, I think he’s the most talented horse in a pretty weak bunch.

RACE #9: 1,5,6,7,8,12

I thought this was the toughest race of the sequence, and if you’ve got the budget to hit the “ALL” button, that’s not a bad idea. I narrowed it down to six horses, and I’m using a few big prices. Of note, B K Masterkey stretches out to two turns (which I think he wants judging by his 2016 races at Tampa), and Albert Charles drops way down in class and has won over this surface twice. That said, nothing would surprise me, and I’m hoping I can get through this leg. If we get a price home, that’s a plus.

RACE #10: 1,3,9

This $6,250 claimer has drawn some hard-knocking horses. I most prefer Capital City, who’s won two in a row at this level and route and should sit a perfect trip just off the speed. I’ll also use class-dropper Let’s Go Ben, who could go early from the rail, and Crazy Frank C, who ran second behind my top pick last out despite hopping at the start. That one has a win at this level and route back in January, and he’d benefit from a speed duel in front of him.

RACE #11: 3

If we’re still alive, we’re letting our ticket ride on Enterprising, who may be the shortest price on the card. He drops into restricted stakes company after chasing Grade 1 horses home on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. Before that, this 6-year-old won back-to-back graded stakes races at Fair Grounds, and a repeat of either of those efforts would make him very, very difficult to beat.

Here’s another look at my $36 ticket. If you’re playing the sequence, best of luck!

R6: 1,2,5,6,9
R7: 8,9
R8: 1
R9: 1,5,6,7,8,12
R10: 1,3,9
R11: 3

180 bets, $36

2017 Belmont Stakes Day Picks, Tickets, and Analysis (6/10/17)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

With very little in the way of significant storylines, this year’s Belmont is most appealing not to the casual fan, or to the sports fan tuning in to see a Triple Crown attempt, but to the hardened horseplayer who goes in search of the elusive property known as value. With a field of 12 and no heavy favorite, this is an instance where that can certainly be found.

The question is, how do you find it, and what kind of knocks are you willing to forgive? Morning line favorite Irish War Cry’s best race is probably good enough to win this, but when he’s bad, he’s VERY bad, and he appeared to be going best of all with three furlongs left in the Derby before hitting a wall going into the stretch. Lookin at Lee is an honest, hard-trying horse who will be the only thoroughbred this year to run in all three Triple Crown races, but he hasn’t won in a LONG time, and deep closers seldom win the Belmont. Meanwhile, the saga involving Japanese invader Epicharis took a weird turn earlier this week, when it was revealed he’s battling an ailment in one of his feet, and he was scratched Saturday morning.

My top pick involves some forgiving, but there’s also plenty of nice things to say about him. That’s Tapwrit, who will attempt to give trainer Todd Pletcher his second win in a Triple Crown race this season and third career triumph in the Belmont. He’s by Tapit, who has sired the winner of this race in two of the last three seasons, and he runs like a horse who will appreciate as much distance as possible. When last seen, he was a non-threatening sixth in the Kentucky Derby, but he had plenty of trouble in that race, not unlike his run two back in the Blue Grass.

He’s by no means a top pick I’m in love with, but when Tapwrit’s right, he’s very good. He’s one of four horses I’ll be using in multi-race exotics, as I’ll also be including Gormley, Irish War Cry, and Senior Investment. Gormley has trained like a Belmont horse for months, while Irish War Cry’s prior strong efforts can’t be ignored and Senior Investment seems to be getting better and better with experience and added distance.

The Belmont anchors a phenomenal card in New York, one that features ample wagering opportunities and lots of star power. I’ve got three multi-race tickets below, as well as analysis, and without further ado…

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 6,7
R2: 3,7
R3: 5
R4: 1,3,5,7,8
R5: 5

20 bets, $10

This Pick Five is, essentially, a Pick Four. Songbird makes her 2017 debut in the payoff leg, the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps, and she towers over her competition. If I can get there and potentially turn a $10 investment into, say, a 10-1 price on Songbird (assuming the Pick Five pays $110), I’ll gladly do that.

Thebigfundamental will be a fairly short price in the opener off of two solid outings, but I couldn’t ignore Wild About Deb, who likely needed his last start off a long layoff. His best is quite good, as evidenced by three top-three finishes in graded stakes company (most notably a third-place effort behind Connect in the Pennsylvania Derby), and 12-1 is way too big a price.

I’ll take a similar approach in the second leg, the Easy Goer. West Coast seems like a solid favorite, and it definitely helps that he does not need the lead, as this race seems loaded with early speed. However, second-time starter Wicked Macho intrigues me. He didn’t have it easy in his debut at Churchill Downs, where he prevailed by a head over a next-out winner, and he’s worked lights-out since then for trainer Mark Casse. This is an aggressive spot, but there’s plenty to suggest this horse could be ready for the challenge. A quick look at his female family shows third dam Stick to Beauty, a stakes-winning blue hen whose presence is felt in the female families of Grade 1 winners Dayjur, Maplejinsky, Point of Entry, Violence, Tale of Ekati, and Pine Island.

The Brooklyn struck me as a two-horse race before the scratch of Send It In, which means Tu Brutus will be a very short price. I can’t go against him, despite Gary Contessa’s subpar record in graded stakes races on dirt in the past five years (he’s 0-for-28). Meanwhile, the fourth race of the sequence is the Grade 1 Acorn, and I spread out. Abel Tasman merits respect, for sure, but I can’t help thinking she may want more ground and/or two turns. She got a dream setup in the Kentucky Oaks, and this is a very solid group (even after the scratch of Tequilita).

That leads us to Songbird, whose lone defeat came in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Not only does she tower over this field on talent, but she also figures to benefit from the pace scenario, which is very light on early speed. This doesn’t figure to be a Pick Five payoff that’ll set records, but again, if I can get to Songbird and treat it like a win bet with enhanced odds, I’ll be very happy.

$1 Grand Slam: Race #7

R7: 7,8
R8: 1,5
R9: 5,8
R10: 3,4,7

24 bets, $24

For those not familiar with this wager, the Grand Slam is a bet where at least one of your horses in each of the first three legs must finish third or better. You then get paid if a horse you play in the last leg wins, and you can build up winning combinations along the way. For instance, this ticket I’m playing could potentially be alive for an $8 valuation to three horses in the Manhattan if each of the horses I use finishes in the top three of their respective races.

I don’t play the Grand Slam much, but cards like Saturday’s are good times to do so. Given all of the possible combinations, this will likely pay handsomely, especially if some favorites finish off the board.

American Anthem figures to be favored in the Woody Stephens, and I’m using him, but my top pick is Wild Shot. Wild Shot was on the Kentucky Derby trail for a while, but has shown to be much better in races contested around one turn. This was affirmed on Derby Day, when the son of Trappe Shot rated behind fast fractions and rolled home clear by four lengths in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile. A similar setup could present itself here, as there’s lots of early speed signed on.

I’m going against morning line favorite Roca Rojo in the eighth, the Grade 1 Just a Game. I fail to see why she should be favored over horses like Dickinson (whose recent win streak includes a Grade 1 win over the brilliant Lady Eli) and Celestine (last year’s runaway winner who’s 2-for-2 in 2017). I’ll use Roca Rojo in the Pick Four for security, but here, I’ll stick with the other two I’ve mentioned.

Sharp Azteca is my best bet of the day not named Songbird. There doesn’t seem to be much early speed alongside him in the Met Mile, and I think he could shake loose and roll home. However, a longshot intrigues me underneath, and for that reason, I had to also use Tom’s Ready. His return off a long layoff was quite good, and his one race here at Belmont was a win in last year’s Woody Stephens. If someone goes with Sharp Azteca early and provokes a pace meltdown, or if Tom’s Ready simply improves in his second start of the year, I think this 15-1 shot stands a big chance of hitting the board and upping the potential payout.

Finally, I’ll go three-deep in the Manhattan to close things out. Time Test is 5-1 on the morning line but may be significantly less than that come post time. His European form is extremely sharp, and he likely needed his last race, which came off a 10-month layoff over a very wet turf course he probably didn’t care for. I’ll also use Dixie winner World Approval and Turf Classic winner Divisidero, the latter of whom could benefit if Beach Patrol, World Approval, and a few others set a fast pace.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 1,2,5
R9: 5
R10: 3,4,7
R11: 2,3,7,8

36 bets, $18

I think you can play a small ticket into a big pool and, potentially, come back with a nice score. I did include Roca Rojo simply because the ticket was pretty skinny elsewhere, and I singled Sharp Azteca. There aren’t any huge prices here, but the field sizes and guaranteed pool are such that, if this gets home, we could see a payout in the $200-$300 range. For an $18 investment, that’s just fine!