SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (6/3/26)
BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $200
We’re back with the final Belmont week at Saratoga. For the new and/or uninitiated, a preview: I’ll have tickets for each day of racing and attempt to grow my initial $200 stake between now and the end of the day on Sunday. These plays, plus my picks and analysis, will be available in-print in The Pink Sheet and online at both AndrewChampagne.com and my Substack page, The Smart Money (with Twitter’s algorithm no longer giving my content much attention, subscribing to one of those feeds is the better play to ensure you see all of my content).
Another change this year is that, if you see my stuff online, you’ll see a link to tip me via Venmo below the bankroll section and above the selections and analysis. My content will always be free to access, but I got approached via the “contact me” function last month by a very generous longtime reader who suggested it (thanks again, Kristian).
Wednesday’s card is a good one, with a plethora of stakes races for New York-breds and some opportunities to take stands. Let’s dive in!
WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the third race and try to extract some value out of #3 AWESOME CZECH. I’ll key her in $15 exactas above #6 NATIONAL ARCHIVE and #7 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO, as well as in $5 “saver” exactas underneath those two runners.
TOTAL WAGERED: $40.
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SARATOGA SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Awesome Czech, Race 3
Longshot: Olivia’s Grace, Race 6
R1
Little Trilby
Ziggle Pops
Jimmy P
#1 LITTLE TRILBY (2-1): Is a worthy favorite in the Grade 1 Beverly Steinman over fences after a runaway win in Grade 1 company last month. He’s won three of his last four, the lone loss coming when he fell in the Grade 1 Colonial Cup last November, and his best beats these; #8 ZIGGLE POPS (3-1): Makes his third start off a very long break and returns to Saratoga for the first time since the 2024 Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, which he won by more than four lengths. Jack Fisher’s one of the best jump trainers in the game, and this one has tactical speed in a race without much of it signed on elsewhere; #5 JIMMY P (5-1): Is a different horse at the Spa, having won the last two renewals of the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard. His efforts elsewhere have been underwhelming, but upstate New York trips have woken him up in big ways in years past (SIDE NOTE: Brisnet past performances do not have complete racing data for the first six horses in this field. If you use those PP’s, you’ll want to check out other forms when handicapping steeplechase races so you don’t miss anything!).
R2
Irish Lullaby
Hot Currency
Galinda
#4 IRISH LULLABY (9/2): Ships in from Woodbine after graduating over the synthetic surface there and faces winners for the first time in the Bouwerie. I like that she’s shown an ability to close, given an abundance of early speed here. Flavien Prat hops on, and the recent workouts look sharp; #7 HOT CURRENCY (7/5): Took a big step forward off of a three-month break to take a race at this level downstate last time out. A repeat of that effort makes her a likely winner, and the outside draw helps, but that was a significant, possibly-unrepeatable move forward, and there’s other speed in here to keep her company; #5 GALINDA (3-1): Has won three of four and re-rallied to take an optional claimer against open company at this distance in April. She’s won without Lasix before and certainly loves this distance, which makes her a player even with a likely race shape that may not play to her strengths.
R3
Awesome Czech
Bam’s Bliss Kiss (MTO)
National Archive
#3 AWESOME CZECH (9/5): Looks formidable in the Mount Vernon, where she comes back to run against state-bred foes for the first time in a while. She’s 4-for-5 over this turf course, has plenty of tactical speed, and should sit an ideal trip against many foes she’s beaten in the past; #6 NATIONAL ARCHIVE (8-1): May have needed her 2026 debut off a break of nearly six months, where she was a one-paced third with a less-than-ideal trip. All three of her previous wins have come with Flavien Prat up, and he hops back aboard for the first time since her last score in September; #7 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (8-1): Won the race my second choice exits, and she also goes second off the bench. She made a big middle move into a slow pace that day, but running without Lasix here and going over a track where she’s 0-for-4 are both question marks.
R4
Buttah (MTO)
Mi Bago
Spirit of St Louis
#6 MI BAGO (3-1): Looks like the main speed, which is always dangerous in two-turn races on the inner turf. He’s been running against open stakes company for most of his career, goes against state-breds in the Kingston, and is a legit wire-to-wire candidate; #7 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (5/2): Was one of the top turf horses in the country in early-2025 but hasn’t won in over a year. Anything close to his best likely thumps these, though, and ignore Chad Brown in a Saratoga turf race at your own peril; #2 GEORGE BRIGGS (2-1): Is the morning-line favorite here, but I have some doubts. He sat a picture-perfect stalking trip last time, and was able to run with Lasix that day. His efforts without Lasix are…fine, I suppose, but they don’t tower over this bunch. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against him.
R5
Valtellina
Walk With Me
Bernietakescharge
#4 VALTELLINA (3-1): Comes off the bench in a pretty stacked renewal of the Critical Eye, but I like her a fair bit despite the six-month break. There’s a lot of early speed in here, and she’s shown she can pick up the pieces effectively at this level. If she’s ready, she’s got a big shot; #1 WALK WITH ME (7/2): Goes back to two turns for the first time in a while, and that’s always hit me as her preferred route. The rider switch to Prat is a big one, and while she’s not a true closer, she IS a grinder who should be moving the right way when the real running starts; #7 BERNIETAKESCHARGE (5/2): Is one of several with lots of early speed, and she comes back to the state-bred ranks after facing tougher downstate. If she can get back to her best form, which included a win in this very race a season ago, she could be the one they have to catch.
R6
Princess Wadadli (MTO)
Olivia’s Grace
Sacred Goddess
#7 OLIVIA’S GRACE (12-1): Is very intriguing at a price for several reasons. She got some very strange trips here a year ago and almost certainly needed her April return to the races (her first try since August). Her recent works are sharp, and if she’s ready to run, I think she could light up the tote board; #10 SACRED GODDESS (6-1): Probably had too much to do last time out in her 2026 unveiling and was wide that day. I’m expecting a step forward from a runner that’s knocked heads with some good ones; #1 DISCO STAR (5-1): Hasn’t won since 2024, but has made a career out of picking up checks in tough spots. I can’t back her on top given the “pack animal” tendencies she may have picked up, and the rail draw isn’t ideal, but she’s impossible to ignore underneath.
R7
Love Coin (MTO)
Willpowered
Homewood Hustle
#11 WILLPOWERED (7/2): Enjoyed a productive winter in Florida, where he ran well twice at Tampa. Those turf races are highly-competitive, and a return to the state-bred ranks is probably a drop in class. If Prat can find a way to save ground from a tricky post, he’ll be a major player; #7 HOMEWOOD HUSTLE (3-1): Looked great in his debut, where he stalked, pounced, and earned the diploma going away. I’m not sure what he beat that day, and this is definitely a step up, but this high-percentage barn doesn’t mess around and the addition of Lasix could move him forward; #8 SIX FORTYFIVE (10-1): Merits a look underneath at a price. He made a big move last time before flattening out and checking in third, and like my top pick, he ran well against open company several times earlier this year at Tampa.
R8
Bravaro
Sculcos Folly
Time to Roll
#9 BRAVARO (5/2): Comes back to state-bred competition after running in a trio of Kentucky Derby preps. He got some tough trips in a few of those races, and the outside draw in the Mike Lee hits me as a huge plus. If Irad Ortiz Jr. can keep him out of trouble, he’s strictly the one to beat; #1 SCULCOS FOLLY (3-1): Has won five of his last six, including a pair of one-turn stakes races at this level downstate. This field appears tougher than the ones he’s thumped of late, but he’s got a ton of early speed and should be able to utilize it from the inside draw; #8 TIME TO ROLL (9/2): Ran well to be second against open company in a pair of stakes races this spring and is another with early speed. Expect him to be prominent early beneath new jock Jose Ortiz, who replaces Jaime Rodriguez (who opted to ride my second choice).
R9
Bank Frenzy
Iron Dome
Drake’s Passage
#6 BANK FRENZY (7/2): Comes off the bench for the Commentator, a race he won last year. He loves going two turns at Saratoga, he’s run well fresh in the past, and he should get plenty of pace to chase. Put all of that together, and I think he’s a likely repeater; #7 IRON DOME (5/2): Ripped through three fields here last summer and showed genuine potential, but he hasn’t really moved forward since then. Perhaps the return to this surface moves him up, but he may need to go pretty quickly early, and I think he’ll be overbet; #8 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (5-1): Won this race in 2024 and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since, but he had several nightmare trips a season ago and has been freshened up since last August. He’s run well here many times, he’s been working consistently since March, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he picks up a check.
R10
Royal Ascendshin
Rossbeigh
Bold Scholar
#16 ROYAL ASCENDSHIN (6-1): Needs quite a few scratches to draw in off the AE list, but I thought he ran very well in his debut. He closed at first asking in a race with very little early pace, and he finished a solid second for a barn whose first-time starters sometimes need a race to get going. If he runs in the nightcap, I’m expecting a step forward; #1 ROSSBEIGH (9/5): Is a logical favorite despite coming off a long break. He’s protected from being claimed here, which I always love to see, and anything close to his debut effort (where he nearly won) would make him a major player; #8 BOLD SCHOLAR (15-1): May be a big price but has several positives working in his favor. This barn can pop at a price with debuting turfers, and his pedigree is solid. His dam is out of a mare that won first time out, and that second dam is kin to a pair of stakes winners. Add in a few sharp drills, and perhaps he’s ready to run in the Wednesday finale.