The calendar has turned to May, and with that comes two of the most exciting days in horse racing. The Kentucky Oaks is on Friday, the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, and I’m using this page as a one-stop shop for all of my content.
BETTING STRATEGIES AND SPOT PLAYS
My day job is for an affiliate marketing company called Raketech. As part of that, I’ve put together betting strategies on $50 budgets for those two races, plus a handful of spot plays throughout each undercard.
You can check those out on Winners and Whiners here, and supporting that avenue supports me as I try to create content you all will enjoy/take something from. In addition, you can use the promo code CHAMP20 for 20% off any individual item.
Furthermore, earlier this week, I sat down with my friend Detroit Lenny, who’s done an incredible job with our video production. We did a “beginner’s guide to the Derby” of sorts, and you can check that out here.
DRANK’N CHAMPAGNE PREVIEWS DERBY WEEK
My weekly podcast on On the Wrong Lead fulfills an annual tradition. Here, Josh Rodriguez and I go through Friday and Saturday at Churchill and offer our best bets, live longshots, and bold predictions for each day of racing. We’re aligned on a big one for Friday, and that’s one you won’t want to miss!
24 HOURS OF CONTENT???
Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets fame is a friend of mine, and he’s running a 24-hour handicapping stream beginning at 12 pm Eastern on Friday to support the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. This is a different iteration of the idea Trust The Prophets did for a Breeders’ Cup, where they also had a rotating cast of handicappers and Twitter personalities go through the night.
I’m planning to stop by in the Pacific time zone’s evening hours, which’ll likely be when the East Coast folks are headed to bed. Whoever winds up getting on this, though, it’s going to be a blast. You can check it out below or on the NYRA Bets YouTube channel.
RADIO IN UPSTATE NEW YORK
Finally, I’ll also be on the radio airwaves in a few New York markets. Those in Saratoga may know I do some work with my friends Tom Goslowski and Jeff Levack, and my hit will air during their show on FOX Sports 980 Thursday.
In addition, I’ll hop on ESPN Radio Ithaca Friday with my good friend/wedding groomsman who still needs to get his tux handled, Nick Karski. That’ll air during his afternoon drive show and be archived on the station’s website (I’ll update these with archive links if/when I have them!).
The Kubler-Ross model says there are five stages of grief, with acceptance serving as the final one.
When horse racing is involved, I’d argue the model is backwards. It’s very, very easy to accept a beloved circuit or institution dying because that’s what we’ve been conditioned to expect.
The latest toll of the bell came for the Northern California racing fairs. Long prominent parts of the summer and fall calendar, seasons at Pleasanton, Sacramento, Ferndale, and Fresno will not be conducted by the California Authority of Racing Fairs in 2025.
This announcement, which came Tuesday, was predictable. The Golden State Racing fall meet at Pleasanton didn’t come close to meeting the numbers put up by Golden Gate Fields, which was shuttered by The Stronach Group (more on them later) in June of 2024. Golden State Racing declined to apply for dates in early-2025, and even though Pleasanton still operates as a training center (for the moment), many horses and horsepeople went elsewhere.
The ability to see this news coming, however, doesn’t make it any less painful.
I wrote about the fair circuit being a breath of fresh air last month. I started freelancing in Pleasanton in 2019, and have co-hosted handicapping seminars outside the grandstand for the past several summers. The crowds were kind, the people who worked at the track busted their butts, and the atmosphere blending racing fans with families enjoying everything the fair had to offer was as pleasant as I’ve ever experienced at a horse racing venue.
When Golden Gate Fields closed, the fairs put forth a plan to house year-round racing at Pleasanton. The Stronach Group, which had never been a fan of CARF to begin with, responded by threatening to sell Santa Anita. Apparently, if they didn’t want to conduct racing in Northern California, nobody else should’ve been allowed to do so, either.
Objectively, this entire scenario did not have to happen. Golden Gate Fields may not have been an “A track,” but it generated roughly $3 million in handle per day. The land it sits on is valuable, yes, but it occupies parts of Berkeley and Albany, which makes selling and repurposing it very difficult for zoning purposes. One can’t simply buy the land, tear down the track, and build high-priced condos, but that didn’t stop The Stronach Group from putting these events into motion and trying to close as early as December of 2023.
The theory was that California could no longer support two circuits, and gathering all horses in Southern California would boost the product at Santa Anita. A bit more than a month after Pleasanton’s final race, we can deduce this never held water. Santa Anita’s product is still struggling, and Northern California horses, which had been running against slower stock, have mostly been non-factors in races against their SoCal counterparts. Plans to add an extra day of racing each week and capitalize on an increased headcount of horses have yet to come to fruition, and Northern California horsepeople are, predictably, bitter about promises they say haven’t been kept by the state racing industry’s governing bodies.
This is preferable to the previous status quo…how, exactly? This has hurt a lot of good people, from NorCal racing fans left without a circuit to follow to horsepeople that now have to ply their trades on other circuits (some of which aren’t exactly on stable ground, either). Golden Gate Fields wasn’t on life support, and neither were the fairs. Northern California horse racing didn’t pass away of natural causes. It was murdered.
The Stronach Group’s own tracks have their issues, of course. In a highly-publicized disaster in the making, Gulfstream Park’s horsepeople are being strong-armed into backing decoupling legislation, with only the vague, unwritten promise of support to keep racing at the property going into 2028. In an interview on Pegasus Day, Belinda Stronach said that having racing in an urban environment was not ideal.
(The presence of dozens of other tracks worldwide in major cities would seem to act as an ideal fact-check. However, it doesn’t seem like that matters much to her at the moment.)
Meanwhile, other circuits seem to be hanging by threads. Arizona’s sole operating track, Turf Paradise, battles rumors of closing every few years. Texas horse racing cut back its purses and total race count significantly after several years of resistance against HISA (and, by extension, several years of out-of-state American players not being able to bet on the product). Even New York, which boasts a stable industry, has condensed from three tracks to two and will close Aqueduct when the new Belmont Park opens in 2026.
Again, though, the grim reaper’s ability to come for tracks at any moment is something we’re apparently just supposed to accept, as is the lack of accountability for those who have forced the sport into these situations. We accept this because there’s no alternative we can pursue. We’re supposed to cry for a bit and then, to steal a phrase from the horse racing Twitter crowd, shut up and bet.
In something that, I’m sure, will surprise no one (from the degenerates who think I’m a suit, to the suits who think I’m a degenerate), there’s no shutting up happening here. The fairs didn’t have to die. Unnecessary turmoil, gross mismanagement within the industry, and petty politics took away a source of joy for so many people, not to mention one of the lowest “barriers to entry” at any horse racing venue in the country.
Acceptance is easy, because given those involved in this saga, a terrible end was predictable. The second step of that “five stages of grief” model, however, is anger. That’s the stage that will be toughest to get past.
Golden Gate Fields had its second dispersal auction not long ago. The Northern California track closed its doors in June and had an initial auction in the fall, but there were enough leftovers to justify a second go-round.
The first auction didn’t go well for me. I got outbid for everything but several sets of glasses celebrating renewals of the Kentucky Derby and Santa Anita Handicap. This time around, though, there was an item I simply had to have.
Up for bids was a green sign that included four white, magical letters representing the TV network that launched my career. To me, they represent a much happier, more innocent time in the game.
The sign brandishing the HRTV logo now resides in my office/guest room. And it’s brought up a lot of nostalgia, especially over the past few days.
We’ll get back to that, but first, it’s time for a trip down Memory Lane…
– – – – –
I desperately needed a reset (for both personal and professional reasons) in the late-summer and early-fall months of 2013. On a whim, I sent my resume to HRTV, and a few weeks later, I interviewed for a job on their digital media team. It went well, and in October, my dad and I stuffed my Chevy Impala with everything it could hold and drove it cross-country.
A lot of things changed over the next year and a half. I met the woman I’m going to marry next year, I worked with some incredibly smart people, and I did plenty of things I’m very proud of. I’ve told a few of these stories elsewhere, and you may have seen them, but they’re worth telling again.
Jeff Siegel and Aaron Vercruysse were some of the best allies one could ask for. They gave me opportunities to help them with a lot of HRTV’s “over-the-top” coverage. With the approval of my then-supervisor, Phil Kubel, these “Santa Anita Uncut” and “HRTV Extra” broadcasts helped establish the blueprint for the streams you see on YouTube, Twitch, and other social media outlets today. I’m forever grateful to them for that, and, in one particular instance, for going to bat for me when they didn’t have to (that’s a story for a much, much different time).
I helped Jeff with a stream from the 2014 Belmont Stakes, when California Chrome went for the Triple Crown. At some point that week, I found myself in the HRTV trailer with Caton Bredar, who I’d only met a few times before then. She smiled at me and said, “are you trying to steal our jobs? You were really good!” I’ll never forget that.
The team, as a whole, was one of the most talented I’ve ever been on, and not just in live production. The folks who put together the “Inside Information” documentary series did brilliant work telling some of the sport’s most interesting stories, including ones that were off the beaten path. In particular, the one discussing the Saratoga WarHorse Foundation was an all-timer, and it’s an absolute shame most of the documentaries in that series aren’t accessible online in some form or fashion anymore.
(Paging anyone with access, either at FanDuel TV or XBTV: Can we rectify this somehow? That’s a VERY easy way to get quality programming out there!)
I remember Millie Ball establishing herself as one of the toughest people I’ve ever met just by showing up. Her husband, Tim Yakteen, trained 2013 Breeders’ Cup Sprint contender Pointsoffthebench, a horse that suffered a fatal injury training for the race. It was a terrible breakdown, and nobody would’ve blamed Millie for going home. Instead, just a few hours later, “Race Day America” went live with Millie sitting next to Peter Lurie, and she gutted it out on the air.
I also remember one of the all-time great pivots in the history of sports television. Gulfstream Park had scheduled a mandatory payout of the Rainbow Six jackpot pool. Officials anticipated a final pot of more than $20 million, and HRTV’s programming included extensive analysis of that sequence.
There was just one problem: Dan Borislow etched his name in the handicapping history books by scooping that pot the day before the big one (to this day, horse racing Twitter refers to a jackpot hit right before a mandatory-payout day as a “Borislow”). This, of course, meant that Gulfstream Park missed out on a record-breaking handle day. It also meant that a TV network owned by the same parent company needed to alter its programming on the fly!
They somehow got Borislow on the phone while Kurt Hoover was on the desk. Kurt’s a pro’s pro who still does a fantastic job on FanDuel TV and FanDuel Racing, but he got a bit frustrated when Borislow didn’t seem to understand a question about the construction of his ticket. The lucky handicapper finally got the message and said something to the effect of, “that’s a great question!”
“Yeah,” I remember an annoyed Kurt saying, “that’s why I asked it twice!!!”
Horse racing makes it hard to be a fan sometimes. For the most part, HRTV made it easy.
– – – – –
HRTV was purchased by the company then known as Betfair in early-2015. To Betfair’s eternal credit, they hired many more HRTV employees than any of us thought they would. I wound up there for a bit more than two years.
(My first two years there were fabulous. It took quite a while, but my last two months were avenged by karma earlier this year.)
After a stop at The Daily Racing Form, my full-time work ceased to be in the horse racing business in late-2018. I still, of course, do quite a bit of freelance work in the industry with outlets like the Hong Kong Jockey Club, The Paulick Report, and The Saratogian, and that, combined with a full-time job elsewhere in the gambling world, is enough to keep me happy.
One other freelance assignment I’ve had materialized after I moved to Northern California. The NorCal fair circuit’s then-announcer, Chris Griffin, was looking for guests to help with handicapping seminars at Pleasanton’s Alameda County Fair. I responded, one thing led to another, and I’ve spent part of the last several summers on stage offering my analysis and selections.
The fair circuit was a breath of fresh air. I love tracks like Saratoga and Santa Anita, but they’ve housed plenty of extraordinary races where one could hear a pin drop on the apron. If it’s a nice day at Pleasanton and a field of $2,500 claimers spins into the stretch with each horse having a shot, the entire grandstand starts roaring.
I was on-site for Pleasanton Mile Day in 2023. It was the first-ever renewal of that race, and it was the richest event in North America that day. The weather cooperated, the track’s apron was jammed, and I couldn’t help but repeat the same axiom a few different times, to a few different people.
“A lot of places make it hard to be a racing fan sometimes. This place makes it easy.”
A few weeks after that day, a bunch of NorCal power players were in Sacramento for a charity poker tournament benefiting autism awareness efforts. A “breaking news” article by the LA Times’s John Cherwa dropped a bombshell: The Stronach Group (or TSG, as I’ll refer to them going forward) was pulling the plug on racing at Golden Gate Fields.
This was a Sunday afternoon. A few prominent people got about five minutes’ notice. Many got none.
The way this was communicated was unforgivable, and efforts to half-apologize during subsequent meetings and conference calls did not go over well. Ultimately, Golden Gate Fields ran a bit longer than TSG desired, closing in June of 2024 instead of December of 2023.
In an effort to fill the void, the fair circuit unified as Golden State Racing and proposed a new year-round Northern California circuit located at the fair tracks. TSG, predictably, was dead-set against this idea and, in response, floated a possible sale of Santa Anita Park.
To say that wasn’t well-received would be an understatement. TSG’s Craig Fravel, who has since left that company, was skewered over the threat at a mid-year CHRB meeting. Golden State Racing didn’t just get fall dates. It won them with unanimous approval.
I was there a few times during the fall meet, which will officially conclude Wednesday. Most notably, I guest-hosted the simulcast feed on Breeders’ Cup Saturday (combined with that night’s Sha Tin card, it made me, I believe, the first person to appear on two simulcast feeds, across two continents, on the same day; that’s a cool legacy to have!). It wasn’t the same as during the fair, when families popped in and out between going on rides and sampling fried food, but it was fun, and people wanted it to work.
News broke Monday, however, that Pleasanton will not run dates prior to next summer’s fair season. This leaves Northern California without a full-time circuit, and depending on how many horses stick around, the fair racing season encompassing stops in Pleasanton, Sacramento, Santa Rosa, Ferndale, and Fresno from June to October may be in doubt, too.
There’s no way this doesn’t stink. Fans in NorCal don’t have a full-time circuit to follow. Horsepeople need to make tough decisions, even if TSG makes good on plans to shuttle horses downstate. Will Santa Anita run lower-level claiming races than they’ve ever run at the Great Race Place? Will they offer races restricted to NorCal shippers? Or will their stock be forced to sink or swim against that of SoCal supertrainers who have consolidated most of the circuit’s fastest horses into a few select barns?
We don’t know these answers yet. However, these come from tough conversations the industry has shown it doesn’t want to have. If you’re not optimistic about this, I can’t say I blame you.
– – – – –
This brings us back to the sign. It’s the one that hung from the inside rail near the wire at Golden Gate for several years, and in addition to advertising HRTV, it also contains the logo of California Thoroughbred Trainers, which still shows its NorCal headquarters as Golden Gate Fields.
I won it at auction for $25, and I picked it up earlier this month. After being directed up the track apron by a lonely security guard, I parked across from the track’s main video board and took a look around.
The track’s Tapeta surface had been scraped up and plowed to the side, moreso resembling a brown snow bank than anything else. The infield’s grass wasn’t a pretty sight, the flags had long ago been removed, and the track that, just three years ago, saw eventual Preakness winner Rombauer capture the El Camino Real Derby was hauntingly quiet.
I picked up my sign, as well as a framed picture of a jockey covered in mud. The sign had a few cracks from being moved around, and I’m sure those didn’t get better as I figured out how to fit it into my Hyundai Sonata. I finally succeeded, bringing something that reminded me of such joy out of a place that reminded me of the very real hardships facing the industry at the moment.
Golden Gate’s gone. The NorCal fair tracks may follow suit. In addition, these events don’t necessarily ensure the survival of the SoCal circuit. Even if there’s no NorCal circuit to compete with, horses still aren’t being bred the way they once were, the horses that are bred still don’t run as much, and more lucrative racing options exist in other states.
Everything that’s happened in California makes it harder to be a horse racing fan.
I miss the days, the places, and the people that made it easy.
The 2024 Breeders’ Cup is upon us. It’s horse racing’s year-end championship event, and I’ve got a bunch of content available that I’m sure you’ll enjoy over this coming weekend at Del Mar.
This year, most of that content is over on Winners and Whiners. I’ve got 14 races’ worth of analysis and selections over there, and my promo code CHAMP20 gets you 20% off any item in the handicapping store.
In addition to that, I’ve been making the rounds ahead of the event, too. First, I was part of a megastream over on On The Wrong Lead, where we went through every race on the Breeders’ Cup program. If you’re looking for something to have on in the background as you handicap, I guarantee you you’ll get something out of it!
In addition to that, I also hopped on Sporttalk, the weekly sports radio show in my old hometown of Kingston, New York. Radio Kingston is where I got my start in broadcasting during my high school days, and it’s always a blast to hop onto the airwaves. You can listen to the archived stream here.
Finally, I did a pair of videos for the Winners and Whiners YouTube channel offering one selection for both Friday and Saturday. Both horses are double-digits on the morning line, and I think they’ll offer plenty of value for those seeking bigger prices. Those videos are available below!
The Breeders’ Cup is one of the biggest horse racing events of the year, and I’m honored to be in a position to contribute a bunch of stuff for people who enjoy reading or viewing my content. It’s great to be able to do this, and I hope you enjoy what I’ve put together.
2024’s closing day has a new meaning for me. Fourteen months ago, I didn’t know if I’d ever be back doing this again. Getting my freelance horse racing work back has given me a new perspective fueled by gratitude.
As always, thanks to the folks at The Saratogian for having me back. If you think it’s easy producing three sports sections a day (The Saratogian, The Troy Record, and The Pink Sheet), try it sometime. In addition, thanks to Raketech, which hired me in November to run the Winners and Whiners website and allows me to produce content like this.
Finally, and most importantly, thank you to you, the reader. I’m incredibly fortunate to have the audience I have, and I’ll even include the few trolls who hate-read my stuff (pro tip, everyone: The opposite of love isn’t hate, it’s indifference). My website shattered traffic records this meet, and, as with everything else I’ve mentioned, I’m very grateful. Let’s finish with a bang!
SUNDAY’S RESULTS: “They knew” about Montalcino, who took tons of late money in the opener and proved best. Hurricane Nelson tired to third, and I dropped $50.
MONDAY’S PLAY: We’ll finish 39 straight days of action in the seventh, where I need to bet #3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL after a nightmare trip in his debut. I’ll have a $50 win bet on that one, and I’ll have a $10 cold double starting with Friend Ofthe Devil and ending with #5 ARZAK in the eighth (the Harvey Pack).
TOTAL WAGERED: $60.
Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!
#4 MILITARY ROAD (1/2): Isn’t the easiest short-priced favorite to trust, but is a speed-figure standout in the closing day opener. It simply seems like he’s been running against much better, and I think they’ll have him to catch turning for home; #3 ELKO COUNTY (7/2): Was second in an off-the-turf race here not long ago and would benefit from any sort of battle up front. He’s been at this level quite a while, but he’s another that’s run in some strong races for the level; #5 DAILY GRIND (9/2): Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and has a right to improve for that reason. His connections thought enough of him to run in the Sir Barton earlier this year, and honestly, someone has to run third.
R2
Disco Star Marvelous Madison Dancing Dakotah
#11 DISCO STAR (9/5): Ran well to be second in her debut and has a right to take a step forward here, provided she draws in off the AE list. She rallied from ninth that day, and closing kicks like that aren’t often seen in debuting horses still figuring things out; #2 MARVELOUS MADISON (8/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has an all-turf pedigree. This daughter of Caravaggio is out of a productive mare that’s already thrown five winners out of six foals to race; #5 DANCING DAKOTAH (10-1): Was one-paced in her July unveiling but adds blinkers at second asking for a high-percentage outfit. Her most recent work wasn’t bad, and I think there’s reason to be optimistic about a horse that figures to be a price.
R3
Concerti Spiritual Lady Roman Goddess
#1 CONCERTI (5/2): Takes a big drop in class for aggressive connections after fading in her last three starts (two on turf). I think coming back to dirt will help, as will waters that certainly look much more shallow than the ones she’s been swimming in lately; #7 SPIRITUAL LADY (6-1): Was claimed after her last-out score by a barn that doesn’t reach in for a tag very often. I’m not sure what she beat that day, but she’s got plenty of tactical speed and could be on the upswing in the back half of her 3-year-old season; #4 ROMAN GODDESS (8/5): Is a class-dropper and will likely take plenty of betting money, but she has no recent wins on her sheet and doesn’t seem to have moved forward following a claim back in February. Returning to this level may help her, but I think she’ll be overbet.
R4
Heard On Thestreet Stormquist Paschal Moon
#2 HEARD ON THESTREET (5/2): Was claimed by Linda Rice last time out, and while that barn’s gone a bit cold to end the meet, this gelding was a strong second at this level last time out and merits respect. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard, and a repeat of the last-out effort may be enough to beat these; #8 STORMQUIST (4-1): Dueled through very fast fractions in his last start and may not need to go so quickly early to get positioning here. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but his springtime efforts downstate weren’t bad at all; #4 PASCHAL MOON (8-1): Came with a bit of a rally last time out and would benefit from any sort of speed duel up front. He’s one of only a few in here that’s shown an interest in passing others late, and he could very well clunk up for a piece of it.
R5
Ichiban (MTO) Prerequisite Promiseher America
#2 PREREQUISITE (8/5): Has been off over a year but comes back for a trainer who’s as good as anyone at getting comebackers ready to go. She won last year’s Grade 2 Wonder Again and was second in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks before going to the sidelines, and this seems like a soft spot for her 2024 debut; #6 PROMISEHER AMERICA (8-1): Comes back to the turf here, and her only race on the grass to date wasn’t bad. She was a close-up second two starts ago at Laurel, and her tactical speed could prove to be an asset; #5 DREAMING OF MO (10-1): Didn’t have a great trip in her local debut after a few solid races at Churchill Downs. She cuts back to what could be a more friendly distance, and channeling the Kentucky form would give her a chance at a price.
R6
One Vision Omaha Pistol Hit the Post
#9 ONE VISION (4-1): Debuted with a solid second last time out for a barn whose first-time starters usually need a race to get going. That day’s winner, Pay the Juice, has some potential, and this one could be sitting on a move forward in a race against many inexperienced rivals; #3 OMAHA PISTOL (3-1): Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and has a work on August 11th that jumps off the page. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, and while seven furlongs is a tough first-out distance, this gelding may be good enough to do so; #1 HIT THE POST (5-1): Has been working steadily here for a barn that’s enjoyed some success at this stand. Second dam Intangaroo was a top-notch mare with three Grade 1 wins to her credit, and sire Kantharos has been known to produce precocious offspring.
R7
Friend Ofthe Devil Rock Star Rebel Daytona Gold
#3 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (9/2): Is a betback after a nightmare trip in his debut last month. He got crushed at the start before suddenly rushing up to contest the pace. Naturally, he faded late. Any reasonable trip, combined with the seasoning he gained in that unveiling, should move him forward considerably; #11 ROCK STAR REBEL (5/2): Is another that didn’t break well last time out. He was one-paced that day, but Dylan Davis is set to ride back if he draws in off the AE list, and that hints at some confidence here; #8 DAYTONA GOLD (3-1): Hammered for $150,000 earlier this season and has been working steadily for trainer Ken McPeek. This outfit doesn’t usually rush its first-time starters, but there’s reason to believe he may have some potential.
R8
Arzak Surveillance Souper Quest
#5 ARZAK (7/5): Has been running against much, much better horses and gets significant class relief in the Harvey Pack. Most recently, he was third behind the talented Nothing Better at Monmouth, and he was second behind a record-setting performance from Cogburn in the Grade 1 Jaipur; #3 SURVEILLANCE (10-1): Has thrived up here this summer, with two wins in as many starts. Most recently, he won the off-the-turf Troy, but his two-back turf effort was a very good one, and we may get a price on a horse that clearly loves the Spa; #6 SOUPER QUEST (3-1): Sure looks like the speed of the speed and has yet to run a bad race in eight lifetime outings. He’s never been worse than third, and his wire-to-wire win here in July was a sharp effort.
R9
It’s Hot in Here Dea Matrona Sizzle
#4 IT’S HOT IN HERE (5/2) and #6 DEA MATRONA (7/2): It makes sense to discuss them both together, as they’re both coming from the Chad Brown barn and ran 1-2 separated by just a neck last time out. Either could win, but I slightly prefer the former, especially given that that one made up a bit more ground last time; #12 SIZZLE (6-1): Needs some luck to draw in, but I’ve liked her a few times this meet and think she could be a factor here. She’s never run a bad one to date and should have some pace to chase if she’s able to give it a go here.
R10
Ferocious Studlydoright Chancer McPatrick
#2 FEROCIOUS (8/5): Looked like a monster in his debut, when he cruised home clear by nearly eight lengths and earned massive speed figures across the board. This barn isn’t a high-percentage one with debuting runners, so it’s telling that this one was ready to go. A similar performance will make this $1.3 million purchase an absolute handful in the Grade 1 Hopeful; #6 STUDLYDORIGHT (12-1): Won the Tremont two back and was a fast-closing second in the Grade 3 Sanford. That day’s winner came back to overcome a strange trip and win again, and given the abundance of early zip, he could get an ideal setup at a price; #8 CHANCER MCPATRICK (5/2): Rallied from last to first to take his debut and is another that could benefit from the race shape. That maiden race hasn’t come back the strongest, though, and the fractions certainly indicated a meltdown was probable. He could win, but as second-time starters go, I prefer my top pick, and as closers go, I prefer my second choice (who’ll likely be a much bigger price).
R11
Child of the Moon Venencia Sugar Hi
#11 CHILD OF THE MOON (3-1): Came back running off a long layoff when she was second at this level back in July. She had no pace to run at that day but still showed the talent that won her a stakes race in her native France, and I’m expecting a step forward here for powerhouse connections; #8 VENENCIA (4-1): Comes off a long layoff for Chad Brown and tried an ambitious spot last year when seventh in the Wonder Again. The works seem slow, but this isn’t a barn that asks a ton of its horses in the mornings, and perhaps she’s ready to go off the bench; #2 SUGAR HI (10-1): Has struggled since a first-out score here last summer but is bred to love the lawn and finally gets it. This daughter of Twirling Candy has a right to improve on the grass, and I’ll gladly throw her into exotics given her likely price.
R12
Lucky and Gorgeous Coach Sessa Dance On Air
#3 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (6-1): Had a very unlucky trip in her last turf start two back. She probably lost all chance at the break that day. Her three-back effort was solid, and channeling that could make her tough in the final race of the meet; #12 COACH SESSA (3-1): Hasn’t run since October and drops in class first off the bench. She’ll get a bunch of changes in here, assuming she draws in, as she’s making her first start for Rob Atras and will add Lasix; #6 DANCE ON AIR (7/2): Goes back to the turf, and her lone grass race to date has aged pretty well. The top two finishers are both solid runners, and while she’ll need to move forward, this will be just her fourth lifetime start, so perhaps she’s still got some potential to do that.
Andrew Champagne 