BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,008

We may (I stress, may) be back on the turf for most of Sunday’s card, and that’s great to see. As others have noted, the past two years have been some of the worst summers on record for races rained off the turf. Nobody benefits from that; not bettors, not horsepeople, and certainly not NYRA, which offers a less appealing wagering product on those days.

In his excitement over the change in weather, however, Matthew DeSantis of NYRA Bets committed a cardinal sin. He posted a screenshot of the 10-day weather forecast that showed nothing but gorgeous conditions. In other words, when Saratoga monsoons inevitably pop up, you all know EXACTLY who to blame (in case my sarcasm isn’t clear, Matthew’s a friend and I can’t resist the chance to bust his chops!).

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Aviator Gui didn’t run badly in his debut, but he flattened out late to run third. As a result, I dropped $40.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I thought today was fairly chalky, but the sixth race may offer some value with #6 QUICKICK, who may be a bit of a price and has been working very, very well. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, as well as $5 exactas using her above and below #4 TRADING STRATEGY and #8 TRANGO TOWER. Furthermore, I’ll have $5 doubles singling her to start and finishing with #3 NOTTOWAY and #4 RIDER’S SPECIAL.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Ottoman Fleet, Race 10
Longshot: Nottoway, Race 7

R1

She’s Always Rosie
She’s Cool
Oh My Mia

#4 SHE’S ALWAYS ROSIE (4/5): Offers next to no value in the Sunday opener, but sure seems the most likely winner. She’s taken a major step forward since being claimed by Linda Rice in April, and a repeat of her last-out effort almost certainly wins this; #2 SHE’S COOL (9/2): Is the other half of a powerful Rice 1-2 punch and may be the lone closer in this spot. That hasn’t been a great running style in local sprints, but her third-place finish last time out at Churchill was a solid effort; #1 OH MY MIA (4-1): Broke through on the drop in class last time out, which was also her first start with jockey Jose Ortiz in the irons. He sees fit to ride back for Tom Amoss, who’s very good at keeping horses on the right track.

R2

Proprietary Trade
Apollo Code
Squints

#2 PROPRIETARY TRADE (6/5): Chased much, much better horses last time out in the Jersey Shore at Monmouth, which was won by Book Em Danno (the likely favorite in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens). He gets Lasix back on the drop in class, and that’s enabled him to run some very big races in the past; #1 APOLLO CODE (4-1): Won two in a row against older claimers earlier this year and comes back to the claiming ranks for this event against fellow 3-year-olds. He’s shown plenty of early zip in the past and could be in position to utilize that with the rail draw; #4 SQUINTS (8-1): Goes first off the claim for Tom Morley in here and exits a narrow win against slightly weaker competition. He had an eventful trip that day, and he showed enough talent to win a restricted stakes race late last year at Gulfstream.

R3

Icy Reply
Rachel’s Rock
Willow Bend

#2 ICY REPLY (5-1): Lost all chance at the start last time out, when his jockey lost the irons. That rider sees fit to get back abaord here on a drop in class, and a repeat of her winning effort two back would give her a big shot in what looks like a wide-open event; #3 RACHEL’S ROCK (2-1): Takes a significant class drop and has prior races that would crush this group. However, she hasn’t run since February, and that effort is her lone start since December. She could win, but I think her likely price is a bit of an underlay; #5 WILLOW BEND (7/2): Was claimed two back and returns to what’s probably the right level after a failed try against much better last time out. This barn has won just once at this stand as of this writing, but has hit the board with seven of 13 runners.

R4

Save Us Melania
Yingle Bells
Thedreamcontinues

#9 SAVE US MELANIA (3-1): Ran fairly well in her dirt debut in May and sports several flashy local drills for a high-percentage outfit. This is far from the strongest field you’ll see at this level, and the cushy outside draw is another big plus; #3 YINGLE BELLS (6-1): Showed some speed in her debut for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. She drops in class and adds Lasix here, and I’m expecting a considerable step forward at second asking; #8 THEDREAMCONTINUES (10-1): Debuted in an off-the-turf race out of the Wilson chute, which isn’t an easy route for a first-time starter. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard, and this is another second-time starter that has room to improve.

R5

Big Ego (MTO)
Cattani
Mazzei

#8 CATTANI (2-1): Is protected in his first start since October, and while the layoff is a concern, this is far from a tough spot, and anything close to his lone turf race to date makes him the one to beat. The steady stream of five-furlong drills downstate hint that he’s ready, and Flavien Prat’s presence is a plus; #10 MAZZEI (5-1): Stretches out from turf sprints and may very well make the early lead by default. The outside post is tricky, but he could also get comfortable on the front end against many horses that haven’t show much interest in passing others; #2 JUDGE RULES (9/2): Was pretty wide last time out and may have been compromised by that unlucky trip. His two-back effort at this level was a solid second, and while he’s been at this level for quite a while, I can’t totally ignore him.

R6

Quickick
Trango Tower
Trading Strategy

#6 QUICKICK (6-1): Sold for $550,000 as a yearling and has several very strong works on her tab ahead of her unveiling. Her dam was a classy, Grade 3-winning sprinter, and she may be an even better broodmare, with nine winners to her credit (including three who have won stakes races); #8 TRANGO TOWER (9/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here that are bred to be runners. This daughter of Curlin is out of multiple graded stakes winner Lewis Bay, and while seven furlongs is a tough first-out distance, her pedigree says this absolutely won’t be too far; #4 TRADING STRATEGY (5/2): Hammered for $500,000 last year at Keeneland and has been working steadily for Brown. Flavien Prat lands here, which is notable, and her bottom-side pedigree includes third dam Phone Chatter, a runner that earned Champion 2-Year-Old Filly honors after a season with multiple Grade 1 wins.

R7

Rider’s Special
Nottoway
Beach Boy Al

#4 RIDER’S SPECIAL (7/5): Gets wheeled back very quickly after a dud as an 8/5 favorite against higher-level competition. Linda Rice does this more than other trainers and has had some success with that move. Add in that this is a significant class drop, and I think this is a formidable favorite; #3 NOTTOWAY (12-1): Comes in from Finger Lakes, which is always a notable trip in these lower-level claiming races, and if you draw a line through a three-back dud where the running line says he was “in distress,” he doesn’t have a bad race on his sheet. This 15-time winner may not get much respect at the windows, but his best race could win this if the chalk misfires; #6 BEACH BOY AL (7/2): Never threatened a much-the-best winner last time out in what hits me as a much tougher spot than this event. He’s a closer in a race with some speed signed on, and the likely race shape could give him a chance to pick up the pieces.

R8

Baraye (MTO)
Mansa Musa
Yellow Card

#7 MANSA MUSA (5/2): Threw everything but the kitchen sink at Star of Mystery last time out in the Grade 3 Quick Call, and there’s no shame in running second to a very talented horse. He’s got two very strong races at this route, one some horses truly thrive at, and he seems like the one to beat in the Mahoney; #3 YELLOW CARD (6-1): Was very impressive last time out in his turf debut, and while he takes a step up in class here, I think he’s found what he wants to do. Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard for a trainer that means business when he ships, and this is one that seems like he’s going the right way; #1 FANDOM (7/2): May have been too far back in the Quick Call, when he was sixth of seven in the early going and was probably left with too much to do. He’s got some ground to make up on my top pick, but he did beat that rival two back in the Palisades at Keeneland.

R9

That’s Money
Anthracite
Street Swagg

#10 THAT’S MONEY (9/5): Takes a monstrous class drop after tiring in the Mike Lee last time out. He may not have liked the sloppy track that day, and having to run without Lasix might’ve hurt him, too. Here, he gets Lasix, as well as an ideal draw against restricted claiming company; #5 ANTHRACITE (8-1): Hasn’t won in a while, but was claimed by Linda Rice last time out and is certainly eligible to improve. That was his first start in three months, and Rice is one of the best in the game with new acquisitions; #2 STREET SWAGG (8-1): Ran well last time out, when he made the lead in a race out of the Wilson chute and held on for second at odds of 11-1. Flavien Prat rides back, and while he may need to work a bit harder out of the gate, it’s also possible he’s found the right rider for what he wants to do.

R10

Ottoman Fleet
Major Dude
Carl Spackler

#6 OTTOMAN FLEET (8/5): Exits back-to-back graded stakes scores and looms large for powerhouse connections in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. He’s got plenty of versatility, with enough speed to make the lead and enough of a kick to stalk and pounce, and that gives Flavien Prat an abundance of options; #3 MAJOR DUDE (8-1): Won a pair of graded stakes races a season ago and goes third off the bench for Todd Pletcher in here. His last-out win here was a very good one, and while he takes a step up in class, his 2023 form tells me he can handle it, and the morning line price hits me as an overlay; #4 CARL SPACKLER (9/5): Will take plenty of money after his win in the Grade 3 Kelso last month, but I have some reservations. His best effort puts him right there, but I don’t think he beat much in the Kelso, where he got a picture-perfect ride from Tyler Gaffalione. He may need to fire a career-best shot to get the money, and given his likely short price, I can’t be too enthusiastic.

R11

Carson’s Run
Deterministic
Legend of Time

#4 CARSON’S RUN (8-1): Is an example of one of my favorite angles, the “toss two” play. Toss the races directly before and after a long layoff, and all of a sudden, you have a horse with three impressive wins in four starts. There’s some speed signed on in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, and I think this one’s live; #6 DETERMINISTIC (9/2): Took to turf well last out, when he ran second in the Grade 3 Manila downstate. That day’s winner came back to win another graded stakes race, and there’s every chance this one keeps moving forward in his second start on the grass; #1 LEGEND OF TIME (5/2): Will almost certainly be a pretty heavy favorite given a few defections, but I’ve never been crazy about him. He couldn’t capitalize on an ideal trip last time out in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, and while these connections merit respect, it’s not like his form towers over his competition.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

Having to handicap for weather is a fact of life at Saratoga. I’ve joked that, at times, one needs to handicap turf races at least three different ways (for firm turf, wet turf, and the main track). This year’s meet, though, has been as draining as any I can remember.

A pair of turf races will be moved to Sunday’s card. To be honest, I can’t see a scenario where they run on the grass at all on Saturday, which affects two other stakes races (the Troy and the Galway). With that in mind, most of my handicapping assumes turf races will be run on the main track. I can’t go against Cogburn or Star of Mystery if they run, but given the weather and likely track conditions, I don’t think those scenarios are likely.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled for a second straight day when races were moved off the turf in the middle of the card.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: My action comes very, very early, and focuses on my best bet of the day. That’s #4 AVIATOR GUI in the opener. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one, to go along with $5 exactas keying him on top of #1 INNOVATOR and #6 NANTZ. Finally, I’ll play a cold $10 double using Aviator Gui with #1 HURRICANE NELSON in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Aviator Gui, Race 1
Longshot: Showcase, Race 8

R1

Aviator Gui
Innovator
Nantz

#4 AVIATOR GUI (3-1): Is bred to be any kind and debuts after a series of strong workouts. This son of Uncle Mo has a dam who’s kin to Hall of Famer Gun Runner, and while seven furlongs is a tough distance to debut at, a lot says he’s talented enough to do it; #1 INNOVATOR (2-1): Stepped up at second asking to run a strong second going a bit shorter. He’s got an experience edge over his opponents here, and of the ones that have run before, he’s clearly got the best prior effort; #6 NANTZ (5-1): Makes his first start for Todd Pletcher and is another with a world-class pedigree. His dam was a very classy sprinter, and he hammered for $600,000 at Keeneland last year (likely after whinnying, “hello, friends,” as he entered the sales ring).

R2

Hurricane Nelson
Banned for Life
Wajda

#1 HURRICANE NELSON (1-1): Has hit the board in all four prior tries, including two efforts over this track. One of them was a strong last-out effort, which came off a very long layoff, and any sort of a step forward would make him very, very tough to beat; #4 BANNED FOR LIFE (9/2): Responded to the cutback in distance with a solid third last time out, and he’s got plenty of experience over wet tracks. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he’s beginning to heat up after a very slow start to the summer; #3 WAJDA (6-1): Hasn’t run since November, but gets Lasix, the ultimate equipment change (being gelded), and Flavien Prat for his return. They saw fit to pay $425,000 for him at last year’s OBS sale, and these are aggressive connections that wouldn’t hesitate to drop him in for a tag if he wasn’t doing well.

R3

The Bullion Bomber
Secret Rules
Disco Deano

#3 THE BULLION BOMBER (7/2): Is protected from being claimed in his first try off the bench, which is enough for me to give him a tepid nod in a wide-open event. Protection often indicates connections are high on a horse and don’t want to lose it He’s shown plenty of early zip in the past and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hops aboard; #4 SECRET RULES (9/5): Is one of two in here for Linda Rice and has run some of his better races in the mud. His best form could win this, but Rice’s class-droppers are often overbet, and if he’s so well-meant, why is #2 ZEEBEAR also running for this barn?; #5 DISCO DEANO (5-1): Pulled off a 35-1 shocker here last time out and comes back at a slightly higher level. He’s won two of six starts over wet tracks and showed last time that he could stalk a hot pace, which may materialize in here.

R4

Miss Fashionista
Magic Eight Ball
Mim

This is the first carded turf race, and my usual method of analysis doesn’t work for races that are probably being moved to the main track. Of the ones in here, #9 MISS FASHIONISTA (6-1) has the most dirt form. I’m not crazy about the possible post coming out of the Wilson chute, but she takes a big drop in class and her winter form at Aqueduct would be enough to get the money.

R5

Spiritual Lady
Devil Blue Dress
Grab the Glory

#7 SPIRITUAL LADY (5/2): Takes a big class drop to run here and is one of only a few that’s shown any interest in passing others late. Her lone career win to date was over a sloppy track at Keeneland, and Tyler Gaffalione (her pilot that day) sees fit to hop back aboard; #5 DEVIL BLUE DRESS (2-1): Is another going way down the class ladder. She’s shown speed and faded against higher-quality groups, and she’s bred to love a wet track (being by Into Mischief and out of a Distorted Humor mare); #6 GRAB THE GLORY (5-1): Freaked in her lone start over a wet track, when she won by seven lengths in March at Aqueduct. She’s yet to duplicate that effort in two subsequent starts, but perhaps the deluge that’s hit Saratoga will move her forward.

R6: POSTPONED

R7

The Boondocker (MTO)
Royal Presence
Clock Tower (AE)

If this comes off the turf, I’m intrigued by main-track-only runner #12 THE BOONDOCKER (8-1). He sold for $325,000 at the OBS sale despite a pretty underwhelming pedigree, which meant his “breeze” (I can’t call it that without some sarcasm considering how much horses are asked for in these works) must’ve been impressive.

R8

Showcase
First Resort
Touchy

#2 SHOWCASE (6-1): Did a lot right in his debut, when he drew away powerfully to win by nearly eight lengths. He’s been working consistently since then, and the tag team of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr., looks like it holds a strong hand in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special; #4 FIRST RESORT (7/2): Splashed home to win his debut at Ellis Park over a muddy track for a barn whose horses often need some time to get going. Flavien Prat’s been enlisted to ride, and while I’m not sure what he beat in his debut, this one sure seems to merit respect; #5 TOUCHY (5/2): Debuted in the Tremont back in June and did a lot of the dirty work up front before being passed late. He could win if he moves forward, but this isn’t a bad group, and given the way he ran last time out, I’m not sure if the extra furlong helps him.

R9

Cogburn
Witty
Disarmed (MTO)

If #4 COGBURN (1/2) runs, I can’t bet against him, regardless of the surface. If he doesn’t, I’ll go with #1 WITTY (12-1), who’s finished in the top two in nine of 13 career dirt starts. I wish I could expound more, but there’s simply not much I can say given the weather providing so many unknowns here.

R10: POSTPONED

R11

Printrack
Poppy’s Pride
Dot’s Dollar

#6 PRINTRACK (2-1): Went way too fast early on last time in a race that wound up falling apart late. I think this field is a bit weaker than the one he beat last time, and he’s shown an off track won’t hurt him, either; #1 POPPY’S PRIDE (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Dylan Davis, who’s taken a massive step forward at this stand. He’s got the speed to be able to use the inside draw to his advantage, and this is another that’s got some very fast early fractions on his sheet; #4 DOT’S DOLLAR (9/2): Ran too poorly to be true last time out, where it seems like he wasn’t persevered with by jockey Flavien Prat. Prat rides back, which is a good sign, and like last time, it certainly seems as though he’ll have plenty of pace to chase.

R12

Star of Mystery
Halina’s Forte (MTO)
Value Area (MTO)

Similar to Cogburn, if #5 STAR OF MYSTERY (2/5) runs, she’ll be very imposing, but it’s highly likely this race moves to the dirt. If so, the first two main-track-only horses, #10 HALINA’S FORTE (2-1) and #11 VALUE AREA (9/2), look tough. Hopefully we’ll be back on the turf Sunday!

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

As we prepare for Friday’s races, the elephant in the room is the weather forecast. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby are barreling up the coast, and it sure seems likely upstate New York will be hit (and, by the looks of the radar, hit hard).

Given the actions of tracks to Saratoga’s south, I’m a bit surprised we haven’t heard anything about a cancellation or postponement as of this writing (mid-afternoon Thursday). Colonial Downs announced changes to its calendar days ago, and Monmouth Park announced they’d be off the turf Friday a full day in advance.

Nobody wants to be the decision-maker who moves racing due to a weather forecast that turns out to be erroneous. However, we’ve known this storm’s coming for several days now. Being proactive is never a bad thing, and I think I can speak for most handicappers when I say that early communication is very much appreciated. 

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: My action was cancelled for a second straight day when races were moved off the turf in the middle of the card.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the second race of the day, the Evan Shipman for New York-breds, and not just because it won’t be impacted by a surface switch. My top pick is #4 BANK FRENZY, who sure seems like the main speed and may offer some value. I’ll have a $30 win ticket on him in hopes he makes every pole a winning one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Bank Frenzy, Race 2
Longshot: Olympic Dreams, Race 3

R1

Silvology
Time Stone
Goodnight My Angel (MTO)

#2 SILVOLOGY (6-1): Ran a big one in her debut and may have bounced last time out at Aqueduct. She’s slated to get on the turf here, which her pedigree says she wants, and I think she’s a major player in the Friday opener regardless of the surface; #3 TIME STONE (7/2): Has run well in two starts to date and appears ready to go off of a layoff of nearly five months. She’s been working steadily at Keeneland ahead of her return and could sit an ideal stalking trip; #4 WEIGHTED AVERAGE (8-1): Has been off nearly 11 months, but gets both Lasix and Flavien Prat in her first start since September. That outing was a clunker, but her debut at Ellis Park was solid and she’s a contender if she can run back to that effort.

R2

Bank Frenzy
Drake’s Passage
Donegal Surges

#4 BANK FRENZY (7/2): Has wired the field twice in his last three starts and goes to the Rudy Rodriguez barn for the Evan Shipman, where he’s drawn a friendly weight impost and gets Flavien Prat. Speed is very good out of the Wilson chute, and I think they’ll have him to catch; #3 DRAKE’S PASSAGE (3-1): Ran an absolute clunker last week, when he was the 2/5 favorite in an off-the-turf event and showed zero interest. Wheeling him back here is a bold move, but his three-back win in the Commentator came over several of these; #1 DONEGAL SURGES (5/2): Was one of several that chased my second choice in the Commentator and cuts back in distance, which could help him. I think he may need Lasix to run his best, and he doesn’t get that here, but he’s never been out of the top two at Saratoga and gets a favorable inside draw.

R3

Donegal Forever
Olympic Dreams
Cooke Creek

#4 DONEGAL FOREVER (5/2): Is 3-for-4 with Lasix, and his two clunkers in stakes company make much more sense when you remember Lasix isn’t allowed in those races. He won last time out at Aqueduct, and his lone start to date over a wet track was a win at Gulfstream in February; #1 OLYMPIC DREAMS (10-1): Drops back into optional claiming company after two clunkers against stakes foes. He’s another who probably needs Lasix to fire his best shot, and he should be prominent early from the inside draw at a price; #6 COOKE CREEK (2-1): Took a massive step forward last time out in his first start for Mike Maker. He won by nearly six lengths that day, and a similar effort makes him formidable, but his record does suggest a wet track isn’t what he wants.

R4

Yo Daddy
Kantarmaci entry
Lord Flintshire

#8 YO DADDY (2-1): Is ultra-consistent and tends to run the same race pretty much every time out. He was a good second on dirt here last month, and prior to that was second twice in a pair of turf routes. Regardless of where this race is run, I think he’s the one to beat; #1 FRONT MAN (8-1): Merits a look at a price if this stays on the grass. He made a big middle move last time out against a decent group, and his two-back effort was solid, too. If he gets a pace in front of him, he could be rolling late; #9 LORD FLINTSHIRE (6-1): Has made a career out of collecting minor awards, with eight seconds and three thirds to his credit. He was close behind my top pick last time out, though, and the rider switch to Flavien Prat is a notable one.

R5

St. Elias entry
Point Clear
Ignite the Light

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (3/5): Both #1 PENTATHLON and #1A UPSTANDING seem like major players in here, and either would probably be favored on their own. The former was beaten just a head last time out, while the latter exits a debut race that figure-makers seem to like quite a bit; #2 POINT CLEAR: I didn’t put the morning line here, because I’m almost positive 99-1 is a misprint. He’s made up ground a few different times now and stretches out to a mile for a trainer that’s enjoyed plenty of success at this stand despite only sending out a few runners; #5 IGNITE THE LIGHT (10-1): Has been off almost six months, but sports a flashy work tab for Rick Dutrow and attracts Frankie Dettori for his return. He has a one-mile race last year at Aqueduct that wasn’t bad, and he may have enough ability to snatch a piece of this at a price.

R6

Keepinitreal
Vibrant Express
Man of Mischief (AE)

#9 KEEPINITREAL (7/2): Gets a tepid nod in what hits me as a wide-open 2-year-old maiden event. This son of City of Light is out of a 2-year-old stakes winner, who herself is out of a mare that produced several stakes-caliber horses, and the big work on July 14th jumps off the page; #6 VIBRANT EXPRESS (3-1): is another that’s bred to be precocious. Sire Vekoma has been throwing runners, and his dam won a stakes at two and is a productive broodmare with no less than seven winners to this point; #11 MAN OF MISCHIEF (5/2): Needs a scratch to draw in, but has an experience edge over most of these and must be respected if she runs. She was second in her unveiling here last month and beat the third-place finisher by nearly 10 lengths. This barn’s horses tend to improve after a start or two, and the outside draw would be a plus.

R7

Printrack (MTO)
Kantarmaci entry (MTO)
Yarrow

Given the weather forecast, I honestly don’t know how we can expect any turf races beyond this point. With that in mind, my usual form of analysis isn’t particularly helpful in three of the last four races. If you’re looking at main-track-only runners, #13 PRINTRACK (3-1) should improve after going way too fast early on last time out against a better group.

R8

Leeloo
Kant Hurry Love
Security Code

#4 LEELOO (9/5): Has never been worse than second in five starts over wet tracks and has every right to turn the tables on my second choice in the Union Avenue. Those two comprised the exacta in a similar race downstate, but I think this one could sit an ideal trip just off a hot pace; #7 KANT HURRY LOVE (2-1): Is established at this level and has run three strong races in as many outings this season. I don’t think she’s quite as sharp in the mud, but she’ll almost certainly be the one they have to catch turning for home; #2 SECURITY CODE (8-1): Comes in off of two clunkers downstate, but she loves Saratoga and has two wins and two seconds in four career starts at the Spa. She’s a bit on the inconsistent side, but her best effort is good enough to contend here and she’s run well over wet tracks in the past.

R9

Promiseher America
Kiss Me Hardy (MTO)
Breath Away

Don’t get too excited, because if this comes off the turf, you’re almost certainly not getting 15-1 on #1 PROMISEHER AMERICA. Between scratches and her being a Grade 3 winner on dirt, a third of that price would provide value. However, I think this is a weaker group than the one she faced last time out, and she may have bounced off of a solid return to the races two back.

R10

On the Hill (MTO)
Big Prankster
Boss Tweed

This is probably a “now or never” spot for #13 ON THE HILL (2-1). He’s been a close-up second in both of his last two starts, but this should present the best opportunity for him to clear this condition that he’ll ever expect to get. He’s a dirt horse, this race should move off the turf, and I expect him to be prominent early.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

Today’s sixth race is for 2-year-olds, and your morning line favorite is Pop Idol. Pop Idol is a daughter of the mare Unspurned, which rang a bell with me for reasons I couldn’t figure out. That changed when Joe Nevills, one of my best friends, got in touch in a tone I can only describe as “planet-wrecking rage” when I didn’t back her in that event.

Unspurned is the dam of an off-track thoroughbred owned by Joe and his wife, several-time Eclipse winner Natalie Voss. Formerly named Underscore, he’s now named Blueberry, and he and Natalie compete in equestrian competitions. To say Joe and Natalie have a rooting interest in this race would be putting it mildly!

The bigger, more serious lesson here: Aftercare is vital. Thoroughbreds only race for a very short part of their lives, and not all of them go on to breeding careers as stallions and broodmares. There are a number of organizations (New Vocations, the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, and Racing For Home, to name three) that do outstanding work in that space, and their efforts are definitely worth your support.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: The fourth race got moved off the turf, so all of my action was cancelled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My best bet of the day is in the ninth of 10 races, which makes this an ideal time to play the Grand Slam. I’ll have a $1 ticket starting in the sixth that goes as follows: 1,7,9 with 2,5,6 with 8,9 with 3. Furthermore, I’ll have a $12 win bet on that single, #3 STRICTLY TABOO. For more on these races, check out this week’s edition of “Drank’n Champagne” below!

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Strictly Taboo, Race 9
Longshot: Diamond Status, Race 10

R1

Route Sensation
Blakely’s Wish
Endless Vow

#2 ROUTE SENSATION (5/2): Got plenty of education in her debut, when she blew the break, rushed into a stalking position, and faded to third. Blinkers go on at second asking, and the two-back work over this track makes me think she’s sitting on an improved effort; #1 BLAKELY’S WISH (2-1): Debuts for a high-percentage barn and is bred to be precocious. She’s kin to both Firenze Fire and Andiamo a Firenze, who both showed talent early, and my only question is whether or not the form she’s flashed in works at Monmouth will travel north; #4 ENDLESS VOW (4-1): Is a first-time starter for a barn whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, there’s one massive work on her tab that stands out, and that’s enough to make me wonder if she’s ready to run.

R2

Protective (MTO)
Passive Management
Stop the Press

#6 PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (7/5): Had no pace to chase in his unveiling, and while he won’t offer a ton of value, he hits me as the most likely winner. Any sort of step forward will make him a handful, especially if he gets any speed in front of him, at all, whatsoever; #1 STOP THE PRESS (6-1): Was disappointing in two starts at Aqueduct, but perhaps he just doesn’t like that turf course. His form earlier this year at Keeneland and Tampa was fine, and him running back to those races isn’t impossible; #5 BADGE OF WAR (8-1): Steps up in class here but gets the services of Frankie Dettori and seems to be improving. He showed some early zip last time out, and I’m expecting him to be forwardly-placed in this spot.

R3

Rotknee
Light Man
Looms Boldly

#5 ROTKNEE (8/5): Is battle-tested and drops back into state-bred company for this event after finishing fourth in the Grade 2 True North. He’s 3-for-3 at this level dating back to October, and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a notable one; #3 LIGHT MAN (9/2): Has done very little wrong to this point in his career, with four wins and a second in five starts. This is his stakes debut for a smaller barn that’s enjoyed plenty of success to this point in the summer; #6 LOOMS BOLDLY (3-1): Was a hard-luck second here in June and earned a massive speed figure that day. That track was very, very fast that day, though, and while he’s shown an abundance of early zip before, I think banking on a repeat of his last-out performance may be asking too much.

R4

Eighty West
Storm the Streets
Friday Surprise

#1 EIGHTY WEST (5/2): Debuted with a decent second at Churchill against open company, and now runs against restricted maidens at second asking. Between the class drop and the experience he gained last time out, there’s plenty to like; #6 STORM THE STREETS (8-1): Dueled early in his debut before fading badly in the stretch, but that day’s winner is a nice horse and this barn’s first-time starters on dirt aren’t usually fully-cranked. Luis Saez stays on, and he shouldn’t have to go very fast early to make the lead; #4 FRIDAY SURPRISE (7/5): Rallied to finish a close-up second in his debut at Parx, but I simply cannot endorse him at his likely short price. Parx form doesn’t always travel, and while it’s impressive that he closed at first asking, I’m not sure what he ran against. This may be a tougher spot, and he may need to improve, which makes that morning line price an underlay.

R5

Luna Moth (MTO)
Avenue Niel
Lady Emily Kathryn

#3 AVENUE NIEL (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race they’ve tried to card two or three different times. She makes her 2024 debut in this spot and was last seen in an optional claimer that produced Chili Flag, one of the country’s top turf distaffers. If she’s ready to run, she could pop at a bit of a price; #4 LADY EMILY KATHRYN (15-1): Merits a look at bonkers odds as one of the few that figure to go early. Toss the two Churchill Downs turf races, and her form looks miles better. We’ve seen those shippers run well a lot so far at this stand; #1 ASPEN GROVE (1-1): Has back form that would bury this bunch, but I have my doubts. That win in last year’s Grade 1 Belmont Oaks was for another trainer, and while she’s been competitive against tough horses lately, she’s a deep closer that may need a lot to go right.

R6

Rematch
Mean Eileen
Moonlight Promises

#1 REMATCH (3-1): Debuts for Shug McGaughey and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., which may be a clue she’s well-meant. This daughter of The Factor is out of a very dam that’s produced 10 winners, including Grade 1-winning 2-year-old Mani Bhaven; #9 MEAN EILEEN (9/2): Is another debutante with a strong bottom-side pedigree. Her second dam is Grade 1-winning turfer Rutherienne, and this barn’s first-out turf horses have shown they can fire right away; #7 MOONLIGHT PROMISES (8-1): Debuted in an off-the-turf race downstate, where she ran second behind a much-the-best winner that repeated at next asking. Her pedigree says turf is what she wants. She gets that here and could take advantage of an experience edge she has over most of this bunch.

R7

Bourbon Serengeti
Cararra
I’m Thinking

#6 BOURBON SERENGETI (3-1): Drops in for a tag for the first time and is eligible to improve second off a six-month layoff for Brad Cox. The stretchout to this distance is a concern, but her pedigree says she should love this route, and it’s not like there are any world-beaters in here; #5 CARARRA (6-1): Sure looks like the main speed in here, and had to run in a completely different way last time out at Churchill. I’m expecting her to dictate terms from the jump, and that’s often a fantastic trip out of the Wilson chute; #2 I’M THINKING (5/2): Is another dropping in for a tag and may be favored after a second-place finish downstate going shorter. Her one-mile effort two starts back wasn’t great, but that was in just her second career start, so perhaps forgiving that clunker is the right move.

R8

Radical Right
Lost in Rome
Lark’s Mischief

#9 RADICAL RIGHT (7/2): Makes his first start for Linda Rice and has several efforts from earlier this year that, if repeated, could make his local debut a winning one. He exits an ultra-tough optional claiming event that produced several next-out winners, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip in a race full of early speed; #8 LOST IN ROME (8-1): Seems like this race’s lone true closer and would benefit from a pace meltdown. He’s an established horse at this level, and jockey Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in this colony at the moment; #5 LARK’S MISCHIEF (5/2): Has shown speed against better and drops into open claiming company for the first time since November. That start was a wire-to-wire score at Churchill, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., hopping aboard for Mike Maker tends to command attention.

R9

Strictly Taboo
Bank On Anna (MTO)
Weekend Rags

#3 STRICTLY TABOO (5/2): Has looked like a new horse this season, as she’s gone 2-for-2 in local starts at this route. Some horses that like this 5 1/2-furlong turf trip truly relish it, and while the margins of victory look fairly unimpressive, she was much the best in both outings; #5 WEEKEND RAGS (5-1): Prevailed in a first-level allowance two back before finishing second in an off-the-turf event earlier this summer. Turf is what she wants, and while her one local start was unimpressive, Flavien Prat picks up the mount, and that’s impossible to ignore; #1 FANCYPANTS JULIANA (6-1): Won for the first time in more than a year last time out, when she closed with a rush to clear her first-level allowance condition. Closers on the rail tend to need a lot to go right, but she’s never been worse than third in three local starts.

R10

Oh My Mia (MTO)
Diamond Status
Turf Rocket

#1 DIAMOND STATUS (10-1): Is a reluctant top pick in a Thursday finale where I lack a strong opinion. At a minimum, though, this mare looks like the main speed on the inner turf, which can be a dangerous combination. She could lead them quite a long way at a price, and she could prove tough to run down if she gets comfortable; #3 TURF ROCKET (4-1): Exits a fourth-place finish behind a runner that’s since come back to win again and gets a rider switch to Junior Alvarado. Her connections saw fit to run her against She Feels Pretty in the Hilltop Stakes earlier this year, so they’ve clearly been high on her, and she’s got some potential to improve; #7 SIZZLE (6-1): Is lightly-raced and ships up from Florida for a small barn that’s shown it can win races in bunches. She was a fast-closing third going a bit shorter last time out, and while whether or not her form will travel up from Gulfstream is anyone’s guess, Flavien Prat sees fit to ride and the two-back work across the street was far from bad.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $2,048

My fiancee doesn’t like it when I say this, but she’s a saint. She’s a fifth-grade teacher at a public elementary school near Oakland, which means that, yes, she has to deal with 30 10-year-olds every day, then deal with me.

I say this because, as the school year starts, she’s in need of some help and has started a Donors Choose project. I will always gladly share word of any drives or efforts she’s got going on, especially during the one time of year where my content reaches a pretty wide audience.

You can donate by clicking this link. If you’ve hit for a nice chunk of change recently and are looking for a good cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Said fiancee got a show at a suburban ice cream shop, where we watched May Day Ready and Frankie Dettori take the seventh at odds of 25-1 (my enthusiastic response, she jokes, means we’re now banned from the property). A $20 win bet and $5 exacta both cashed, returning $1,153.75 on a $36 investment. I’m pretty sure that’s a Pink Sheet bankroll record.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll head to the fourth, where I’m against #5 UNIT ECONOMICS and will bet against the favorite accordingly. First, I’ll play $4 exactas using #2 VICTORS VALIANT and #6 BARRAGE on top of those two, #1 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA, and Unit Economics. I’ll box my top two horses in additional $2 exactas, and those two will finish off a $2 Pick Three that starts in the second. That ticket goes as follows: 8 with 1,2,3 with 2,6.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Neuschwanstein, Race 7
Longshot: Victors Valiant, Race 4

R1

Zarak the Brave
Kiyomori
Hold Hard

#2 ZARAK THE BRAVE (1-1): Depending on which PP’s you use, you may not see his recent resume. Brisnet and TwinSpires do not show his races from 2023 and 2024, which include a fourth-place finish at Cheltenham against some top-tier steeplechase horses in England. Anything close to his European form would make him a handful in the Jonathan Kiser, assuming they finally get to run it Wednesday after several postponements; #3 KIYOMORI (4-1): Turned a corner late last year and exits a third-place finish in a similar-level stakes race in his 2024 debut. Unlike many others in here, he’s shown he can win without Lasix, and the flexible running style also helps; #1 HOLD HARD (5-1): Has won two in a row and sure looks like a horse hitting peak form as a 5-year-old. The spot he exits is a salty one, as several horses that finished behind him came back to win at next asking.

R2

Will Not Be Swayed
Tiz Purple
Royal Princess

#8 WILL NOT BE SWAYED (8/5): Did everything but win last time, when she fell a neck short to a promising filly and finished 14 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. She may not need to move forward at all to beat these, and if she does take a step forward, look out; #7 TIZ PURPLE (4-1): Ships up from Monmouth after running a solid second in her unveiling. She made up some ground late, which isn’t easy to do in a five-furlong race, and the presence of Tyler Gaffalione is notable; #6 ROYAL PRINCESS (6-1): Debuts for a barn connecting with 22% of first-time starters, and she’s posted some solid drills at Laurel ahead of her unveiling. Her female family’s a pretty classy one, and she could be live in her debut at a bit of a price.

R3

Dillinger
Own the Field
Master of Arms

#3 DILLINGER (6-1): Blew the doors off a field of claimers last time out, when he drew away powerfully to win by more than eight lengths. On paper, this is a step up, but it’s far from the strongest starter allowance we’ll see at the meet, and it sure seems like he loves it here; #1 OWN THE FIELD (2-1): Has been competitive here twice this summer and cuts back to seven furlongs after a race out of the chute where he didn’t save any ground. That’s not the desired trip at that route, and while he hasn’t won in a while, he’s got potential to move forward and he’s not a terrible favorite; #2 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in after a few unsuccessful tries at Churchill and has shown plenty of early zip in the past. I’m not convinced he wants seven furlongs, but he should be forwardly-placed and may be the one they have to catch.

R4

Classic Legacy (MTO)
Victors Valiant
Barrage

#2 VICTORS VALIANT (8-1): Hasn’t run a bad one in three starts on this circuit and was a good second last time out in a race that hits me as a stronger one than this heat. His two-back win here was a good one, and he retains the services of top jock Flavien Prat (side note: Go Blue!); #6 BARRAGE (5-1): Goes back to Ray Handal’s barn after a downstate effort that was too bad to be true. He’s shown plenty of early zip, which is a great thing to have on the inner turf, and he’s run very well over this turf course in the past; #5 UNIT ECONOMICS (6/5): Merits respect based on the connections, but while he’s got a shot, the likely price hits me as a considerably underlay. He’s had some gate issues in the past, and while his turn of foot is a good one, this field is nothing to sneeze at. At his price, I’ll try to beat him.

R5

All That Magic
Sunday Shoes
Speedy Traveler

#2 ALL THAT MAGIC (5/2): Has ample back class and gets Lasix dropping back into the allowance/optional claiming ranks. She’s clearly a far better horse with that in her system, and a return to her 2023 form (which helped her win six times that year) would make her the one to beat; #1 SUNDAY SHOES (5-1): Has won a stakes race on synthetic and exits a failed try in the Grade 3 Whimsical at Woodbine. Her two-back turf drill was very sharp, and the Wesley Ward/Flavien Prat combination isn’t one to ignore; #6 SPEEDY TRAVELER (6-1): Won three in a row at Fair Grounds earlier this year and is set to try turf for the first time. There’s a chance she’s the speed of the speed, and honestly, I partially need to use her just in case this race comes off the grass.

R6

Moonlit Weekend
Grammy Girl
La Vita Sofia

#1 MOONLIT WEEKEND (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I truly lack a strong opinion. She draws favorably in this race out of the Wilson chute, though, and the significant rider change to Jose Ortiz should move her forward; too; #8 GRAMMY GIRL (4-1): Takes a significant drop after chasing $50,000 claimers downstate last time out. That race’s distance may have been a bit short for her, and while the outside draw isn’t ideal, she could certainly improve getting back to a longer trip against weaker competition; #4 LA VITA SOFIA (9/2): Hasn’t won in a while, but is another dropping in class, and she cuts back from a two-turn route against starter allowance foes. Her lone career win came at this distance, and the Rudy Rodriguez barn is starting to heat up after a rough start to the meet.

R7

Neuschwanstein
Unclecharliesgift
Stormquist

#11 NEUSCHWANSTEIN (3-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start off a five-month break and ships up to run here for a tag. Toss the race right before the layoff, and his form looks considerably better. Add in the potential to improve second off the bench, and he looks pretty imposing; #8 UNCLECHARLIESGIFT (8-1): Has had gate issues, but responded to the drop last time out by rallying to be third behind Dillinger (who I like a lot earlier in the day). I worry he’ll have too much to do late, but in a race with a fair amount of cheap speed, I do think he’ll get the setup he wants; #4 STORMQUIST (10-1): Makes his first start off the claim after setting a very, very fast pace for the level last time out. Several of his early-2024 efforts were pretty sharp, and he’s shown an ability to stalk and pounce, which could prove helpful.

R8

Bustin Bay
Smokin’ Hot Kitty
Sterling Silver

#5 BUSTIN BAY (8-1): Stretches back out to a route in the Johnstone Mile after going way too short last time out. She’s an honest, hard-trying mare who won’t have an issue with this distance, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is certainly a plus; #3 SMOKIN’ HOT KITTY (7/2): Seems like the main speed in here, which is always dangerous coming out of the Wilson chute. She’s won four of her last five starts, with the lone misfire being a turf experiment, and if she gets comfortable early, she could prove tough to catch; #2 STERLING SILVER (7/5): Certainly has plenty of back class, but I have serious doubts (especially at her likely short price). There’s nothing saying she wants to go a mile, she may need far more pace than she’s likely to get, and there’s also a chance we may have seen the best of her at this point.

R9

Bearings (MTO)
St. Elias entry
Riverwalk

ST. ELIAS ENTRY (1-1): I prefer #1A ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT, who looks every bit like the one to beat in the Wednesday finale. He’s been competitive against maiden special weight foes at multiple tracks, and this field seems like a weak one for the maiden claiming level; #6 RIVERWALK (4-1): Probably never had a chance last time out, when he raced very wide throughout at Aqueduct. His draw is a bit better here, and he’s a contender if he can run back to a few of his Gulfstream races from earlier this season; #2 PUJOL (15-1): Was third in a similar race early in the meet and was very, very far behind early on in that event. His two Saratoga races are easily the best ones he’s ever run, and I think he’s got a shot to hit the board at a price.