BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,006.75

One of my favorite horses in training returns to the track Sunday. That’s Nobals, and yes, he’s a gelding.

Nobals was the key to a very successful Breeders’ Cup last year. I spent the day at the OTB near the Alameda County Fairgrounds in Pleasanton (my adopted home track here in Northern California). It was a chalky day, for the most part, but Nobals put a jolt into the proceedings by winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at double-digit odds.

As an aside, you haven’t lived until you’ve been part of a grown mob screaming, “COME ON, NOBALS!!!” As a further aside, based on Larry Collmus’s call of that race, we can all agree the people insisting it was pronounced “nobles” were lying through their teeth, right?

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Neither of my spot plays fired. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on my best bet of the program. That’s #6 SHESALITTLE EDGY, and I’ll try to extract some value with $10 exactas using her on top of #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE and #4 GOLDCREST. In addition, she’ll finish off $5 doubles that start in the second, with #1 TRY IT AGAIN and #5 GOLDEN DAGGER.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Shesalittle Edgy, Race 3
Longshot: Two Turntables, Race 6

R1

My Shot
Reliable Source
Donor Advised

#2 MY SHOT (3-1): Makes her debut here after a string of very sharp workouts in Kentucky. This daughter of Constitution sold for $240,000 as a yearling, and Tom Amoss has enjoyed plenty of success at this meet already; #4 RELIABLE SOURCE (5/2): Has an experience edge over most of this group and ran a solid second in her unveiling last month. She rallied from ninth of 11 in that event and attracts Flavien Prat for career start number two; #6 DONOR ADVISED (9/5): Debuts for Chad Brown and has a right to be a good one. She’s a daughter of top sire Gun Runner and sold for $325,000 at last year’s Keeneland sale. The hesitation here is because of the likely short price and the workouts, which are solid but don’t appear spectacular.

R2

Golden Dagger
Try It Again
George’s Vice

#5 GOLDEN DAGGER (4-1): Is a tepid top pick in a claiming race where I don’t have much of an opinion. However, she drops down in class and seems like the lone closer in a race full of low-quality early speed. The question is, can she replicate her turf and synthetic form on dirt?; #1 TRY IT AGAIN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while but exits a decent second at this level and distance downstate. This barn is on a cold streak to start the meet, but this is another that’s at least shown some interest in passing others late; #2 GEORGE’S VICE (5/2): Drops in class from the state-bred allowance ranks and has shown plenty of early zip. Her last two starts against claimers have been wins, though you have to go back to 2023 to find them.

R3

Shesalittle Edgy
Goldcrest
Ribot’s Valentine

#6 SHESALITTLE EDGY (8/5): Drops down in class for this event after being competitive for twice this tag two starts ago. The runaway winner from her last-out effort came back to win again, and this seems like a much softer spot; #4 GOLDCREST (5-1): Gets a big rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., in her debut on this circuit. Most recently, she was a close-up third going a bit longer at Monmouth Park, and she was a runaway winner at this distance two back at Gulfstream (albeit against weaker foes); #2 RIBOT’S VALENTINE (8-1): Comes back to dirt and drops in for a tag after two unsuccessful turf tries downstate. Her lone start at this distance was a win, and she’s a candidate to improve at a bit of a price.

R4

First Class Cat (MTO)
Delightful Dixie
Linarite

#4 DELIGHTFUL DIXIE (9/2): Is 2-for-2 since coming off the bench last month and gets a class test here. However, she’s a speed horse that attracts Luis Saez, one of the top gate riders in the game, and I think she’ll be the one to catch; #2 LINARITE (9/2): Hasn’t won in more than a year but likes this route and came up just short last time out. If the pace is faster than I anticipate, this is the mare that should be the prime beneficiary; #6 FANCYPANTS JULIANA (7/2): Is the stablemate of my second choice, and she probably has a bit more early speed than that one. However, she’s got a history of finding trouble, and she’ll likely be a shorter price than her barn buddy given the presence of Flavien Prat. She’s not impossible, but given the relative lack of value, I’ll look elsewhere.

R5

Regulatory Risk
Sedona
Crushed Ice

#4 REGULATORY RISK (9/5): Takes a big drop in class after running into Thorpedo Anna twice in a row. She was third in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks two back, and she gets Lasix for the first time, which could move her forward further against first-level allowance foes; #7 SEDONA (2-1): Just missed last time out after sitting a few lengths behind a moderate early pace. She’s bred to get better with experience, and there should be some pace for her to chase; #1 CRUSHED ICE (12-1): Has won three in a row on her way up the class ladder and has the early zip to take advantage of the inside draw. This is a much, much tougher group, but she’s certainly on the improve and could lead them a long way at a price.

R6

Opulent Restraint
Two Turntables
Coral Sea

#3 OPULENT RESTRAINT (2-1): Is one of the best-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds, from a turf standpoint. This daughter of Dubawi is out of Significant Form, who won several graded stakes races, and she’s been working steadily for Chad Brown ahead of her unveiling; #8 TWO TURNTABLES (15-1): Didn’t do much running in her debut, but that was on dirt. This daughter of Street Boss and an Empire Maker mare gets to go two turns on turf, which is what she’s bred to do, and Mike Maker trainees sometimes need a race or two to get going; #9 CORAL SEA (6-1): Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may be talented enough to overcome the outside post. This daughter of Kingman has a classy female family dating back to third dam Win McCool, a graded stakes winner.

R7

Rivelli entry
Boat’s a Rockin
No Nay Hudson

RIVELLI ENTRY (4/5): #1 NOBALS makes his 2024 debut off a long layoff. The last time we saw him was when he won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, and while this is a very strong group for the level, he’ll be tough to beat if he’s ready to roll; #7 BOAT’S A ROCKIN (10-1): Wired a solid group at this route two starts ago and probably went just a bit too long last time out. He’s a distance specialist through and through, and I expect him to be prominent early; #8 NO NAY HUDSON (6-1): Hasn’t raced since December but is yet another runner with plenty of back class. The recent local drills are very sharp, and Wesley Ward knows how to get horses ready off of long breaks.

R8

Devil’s Cay
For Some Reason
Quick Hammer

#2 DEVIL’S CAY (7/2): Has been running against much better on turf and comes back to the dirt here. His races against similar earlier this year at Aqueduct were solid, and Flavien Prat lands here when he probably had several options; #4 FOR SOME REASON (4-1): Takes a big drop in class for ultra-aggressive connections. His most recent drill was a sharp one here at Saratoga, and I think there’s a chance he just didn’t like Churchill. Gulfstream is a quirky surface, but he showed talent there and has a big chance if he can channel that form; #5 QUICK HAMMER (5-1): Was an impressive wire-to-wire winner two back before tiring as an odds-on favorite last time out. He seems like the main speed in here, and if this track is kind to early zip, he could get comfortable out of the gate beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.

R9

Silver Knott
Ohana Honor
Soldier Rising

#2 SILVER KNOTT (4/5): Has won back-to-back Grade 2 events since the switch to Flavien Prat and looms large in the Grade 2 Bowling Green. Simply put, anything close to what we’ve seen from him this season would make him very, very hard to beat, and his status as a likely odds-on favorite reflects that; #1 OHANA HONOR (7/2): Exits a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Manhattan, which was won by Measured Time in very impressive fashion. He chased my top pick two back, and while it sure seems like he’s a little better with Lasix, he’s got what it takes to get a big piece of this; #5 SOLDIER RISING (4-1): Hasn’t run since November and hasn’t won since 2022, but has shown a strong closing kick and was second in three Grade 1 events a season ago. There does seem to be some speed signed on; the question is, is he ready to go off of such a long break? Given the quality of my top choice, he may have to be.

R10

Wine Responsibly (MTO)
Miracle Mike
Laurel Valley

#3 MIRACLE MIKE (5-1): Didn’t get his desired trip last time out and still ran a very big race. He was third that day after being on the lead, and nothing about his prior form says that’s what he wants to do. His lone prior turf race this year was a win, and I think he’s well-meant in the Sunday nightcap; #2 LAUREL VALLEY (9/5): Would be far from shocking and is a likely heavy favorite. However, he’s had favorable setups in each of his last two starts and hasn’t gotten the job done. It’s logical to ask what changes here, especially given the relative lack of value; #7 SLAPINTHEFACE (3-1): May have needed his last race, which came off a very long break and only saw him be beaten a few lengths. Improvement is logical second off the bench, and he should be moving the right way late.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,031.75

If you’re a pedigree nerd (a term I use with endearment, because I’m one, too!), you won’t want to miss Saturday’s seventh race. There are some 2-year-olds bred to be any kind in there, including the very first horse in the program. That’s Invictus, who’s by top sire Into Mischief and out of the freakishly-fast mare Serengeti Empress.

He won’t have it easy at first asking, though. Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Steve Asmussen all saddle precocious-looking colts, and another top trainer, Bill Mott, runs two (including one with an experience edge). It’s a fascinating race to handicap, and if you’re a Pick Six player, it’s definitely not an easy start to that sequence!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: Better Bet salvaged a rough day in the pick box by at least getting me a few bucks in the bankroll. Doubles and win bets involving Run Curtis Run fizzled, but $25 in bets returned $33.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll repeat the strategy I used Friday in Saturday’s fourth and fifth races. I like #7 BE THE BOSS and #1 HAVE YOU HEARD quite a bit in each event. I’ll have $10 win bets on both runners, and I’ll link them in a $5 double. Given their respective prices, one win would mean a very good day, while back-to-back wins would make for a really nice score.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

Today’s multi-race analysis focuses on the late Pick Four. You can get my betting strategies for one multi-race sequence each day for just $5 over at Winners and Whiners. If you want concentrated thoughts on one particular sequence, this is where you’ll find them!

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Scarlet Poppy, Race 8
Longshot: Time Song, Race 9

R1

West Beach
Atomic Age
Seattle Road

#7 WEST BEACH (5/2): Is a very logical favorite in the Saturday lid-lifter and has an experience edge over most of his opponents in this spot. It’s good experience, too, as he was a solid second going shorter downstate and is bred to love this two-turn route of ground; #3 ATOMIC AGE (7/2): Is by Justify and hails from a precocious female family. His dam was stakes-placed at two, his second dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old, and his third dam also threw top sire Constitution. Simply put, he’s got every reason to be a runner; #6 SEATTLE ROAD (15-1): Merits a long look at a price given his pedigree, one that says this two-turn route will not be a problem. This son of Quality Road is out of a Tapit mare that placed in a Grade 3 event, and Tom Amoss knows how to win with first-time starters.

R2

Tinebar
Iron Man Ira
Sorority Prank

#5 TINEBAR (3-1): Showed a bit of early speed in his debut, which came going a mile downstate. That’s not an easy ask of a first-time starter, even for offspring of Arrogate that should get a distance of ground. His recent workouts include a pair of bullet drills, and I’m expecting a significant step forward; #3 IRON MAN IRA (9/5): Makes sense as a favorite given his two and three-back efforts, which were both solid. The last-out clunker as an odds-on favorite, however, gives me some cause for concern, even though Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back; #7 SORORITY PRANK (6-1): Comes back to dirt after a failed turf experiment and figures to be prominent early. Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone in upstate New York right now, and the draw near the outside of this field should give horse and rider an opportunity at an ideal trip.

R3

Kantarmaci entry
Master of Arms
Natural Harbor

KANTARMACI ENTRY (3-1): I prefer #1A AMUNDSON, although #1 MARKET ALERT doesn’t seem terribly-meant. Amundson, though, has won three in a row and loves this Saratoga surface. His stalking style should suit him perfectly and give him first run going into the far turn; #7 MASTER OF ARMS (9/2): Ships in from Churchill and seems to run pretty much the same race every time out. He’s broken a bit slow in his last few starts, which have come against starter allowance foes. A clean start would give him a big chance; #4 NATURAL HARBOR (6-1): Comes north from Parx and is another taking a bit of a drop in class. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, which is a trait I value in a race with lots of zip in the field.

R4

Be the Boss
Speak Easy
Edified

#7 BE THE BOSS (5-1): Comes in off a three-month freshening for Mike Maker, whose barn is heating up. The recent bullet drill jumps off the page, and as a stalker/closer in a race with plenty of early speed, he should benefit from the likely race shape as much as any runner in here; #5 SPEAK EASY (1-1): Will almost certainly be a heavy favorite, but I have some doubts. He was scratched prior to the Fountain of Youth earlier this year and hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since. Maybe he’s so talented it doesn’t matter, but this sure seems far shorter than he wants, and he’s not going up against a bad group, either; #8 EDIFIED (15-1): Goes second off the bench for Steve Asmussen and almost certainly needed his 2024 debut last month. That was his first try since October, and he rushed into contention after a less-than-ideal start. Logical improvement here would give him a shot to hit the board at a price.

R5

Have You Heard
Who’s the King
Pando

#1 HAVE YOU HEARD (6-1): May have just been a dirt router all along. He’s won two of three starts since being claimed by Mike Maker back in March, including a last-out score at Colonial in an off-the-turf event. I think he’s doing what he wants now, and that he may still have further room to grow; #4 WHO’S THE KING (5/2): Exits a second-place finish at Churchill where he hit the front in the stretch and was reeled in. His early speed is a plus, and this barn merits respect, but the nine-furlong distance seems like it may be a hair too far; #7 PANDO (12-1): Is a plodding-type who should appreciate the stretchout in distance here. Jose Ortiz takes the call, and he should have this gelding fairly close to a reasonable pace early on.

R6

Skelly
Baby Yoda
Nakatomi

#6 SKELLY (6/5): Was run down as a big favorite last time, but it helps that that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking. The outside draw is a big plus, and I think he’ll be the one to catch in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt; #4 BABY YODA (7/2): Never looked like a loser in the Grade 2 True North, which he won by six lengths during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. There’s no denying his love of the Saratoga main track, but this does seem like a stronger field; #1 NAKATOMI (5/2): Is a consistent, hard-knocking sort that exits a third-place finish in the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He’s been working steadily at Keeneland ahead of his return, and he should do his best running late beneath Tyler Gaffalione.

R7

Noble Confessor
Tharhom
Chancer McPatrick

#6 NOBLE CONFESSOR (6-1): Sports several flashy drills ahead of his debut in this wide-open baby race. This son of Quality Road boasts a classy female family, including a dam that’s kin to a pair of stakes winners, and we all know how good Todd Pletcher is with first-time starters; #9 THARHOM (4-1): Hammered for $650,000 earlier this year, a massive number considering sire Global Campaign’s modest $12,500 stud fee. His dam is a full sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter Yesbyjimminy, and some of the workouts show that he may have plenty of talent; #4 CHANCER MCPATRICK (4-1): Sold for $725,000 in Florida despite a just-OK pedigree, so he must’ve knocked some socks off during his “breeze” at that sale. The most recent work hints that trainer Chad Brown has him on the right track ahead of his debut, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus.

R8

Scarlet Poppy
Lamorna
Aunt Nona

#1 SCARLET POPPY (2-1): Responded to cutting back in distance last time out with a good second downstate. There isn’t much other early speed in the race, and the last two works hint that trainer Wesley Ward has tightened the screws on this filly; #7 LAMORNA (9/2): Probably needed his last-out clunker, which was his first start since a near-miss in October of last year. She’s found trouble in most of her outings to date, but she’s also shown a strong late kick and would benefit from a faster-than-expected pace; #5 AUNT NONA (10-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, especially considering trainer John Kimmel’s horses tend to need a race to get going. She wasn’t too far behind my top selection that day, and a move forward would put her right there at a price.

R9

Pirate (MTO)
Time Song
West Hollywood

#4 TIME SONG (10-1): Was third in a swiftly-run race during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, which came during a time of uncertainty for this barn. The situation’s a bit more stable now, and this field doesn’t seem quite as strong as the one he ran against last month; #8 WEST HOLLYWOOD (4-1): Romped in his American debut two back before being reeled in and settling for second in his first try against winners. Early speed isn’t a bad thing to have on the inner turf, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dictate terms from the jump beneath Flavien Prat; #12 RISK TOLERANCE (3-1): Did nothing wrong in his debut, when he rallied to graduate at first asking. The far-outside draw is a big problem, and the likely price against a good group hits me as way too short, but he’s got plenty of potential and runs for a barn that merits respect.

R10

Fierceness
Sierra Leone
Gould’s Gold

#6 FIERCENESS (9/5): Gets another shot from me in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy after an absolute dud in the Kentucky Derby. His inconsistency is a problem, but when he’s good, he’s outstanding, and the outside draw in this short field should be a boon to his chances; #1 SIERRA LEONE (1-1): Certainly has the ability to win this, but he also creates his own trouble with regularity and is a closer that draws the rail. I won’t be stunned if he breaks through, but at his likely short price, I simply can’t endorse him on top; #5 GOULD’S GOLD (15-1): Definitely needs to improve on speed figures, but he’s a closer in a race full of early speed. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he clunks up for a piece of it at a big price.

R11

Hagrid’s Flame (MTO)
Ez Roll
Teta’s Trotter

#9 EZ ROLL (6-1): Has been competitive at this level in his last two starts and gets a massive rider switch to Frankie Dettori. He’s never run a bad race since being switched to the turf last fall, and I expect him to be flying late; #3 TETA’S TROTTER (15-1): Won at first asking for trainer David Donk, whose first-time starters often need some time. The last-out clunker was disappointing, but he’s got a win over this turf course and attracts John Velazquez for this event; #1 CLEAR CONSCIENCE (4-1): Exits a strong second in a two-turn turf route downstate, and his best efforts have come over similar configurations. Javier Castellano rides back, which is very encouraging, and he may have enough speed to hold early position along the rail.

R12

Summer Whirl
North End Lady
Autumn

#4 SUMMER WHIRL (5/2): Charged late last time out as a 3/2 betting favorite and was beaten just a neck. Her lone outing before that saw her run third in a local turf sprint, and that day’s winner came right back to win again at next asking; #10 NORTH END LADY (5-1): Showed some speed in both of her last two starts, both second-place finishes. Her try on June 8th included her working with an outside post, which she’ll need to do again here, but any trip where she can save some ground moves her up; #5 AUTUMN (6-1): Went to the front early on last time out and settled for third, being beaten less than a length. Her last three turf tries have all been solid, and she’s got plenty of versatility that could come in handy in a wide-open Saturday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,023.75

I was critical of Thursday’s card in yesterday’s bankroll section (which questioned the inclusion of a $10,000 claiming race). However, I consider myself to be fair, and I must give NYRA a lot of credit for assembling a fantastic Friday program.

In addition to the Amsterdam for 3-year-old sprinters, there are several stakes-caliber allowance/optional claiming events making up the slate. The ninth, in particular, looks more like a Grade 3 race, with several graded stakes-type horses lining up in what may very well be a prep for a race like the Forego later this summer.

Thursday’s cards are the ones that can be chores to handicap. Friday’s cards, by contrast, put a pep in your step from start to finish.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Dot’s Dollar didn’t fire in the seventh, which did indeed fall apart late (just for the wrong closer). After scratches, I dropped $41, though seeing my friend The Wizard win with a horse he owns softened the blow considerably!

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh and eighth races, which house a pair of horses I like quite a bit. I’ll have $10 win bets on #5 BETTER BET and #2 RUN CURTIS RUN in those races, and I’ll link them with a $5 double. If one of them wins, it’s a good day. If both win, it’s a very, very good day.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

Winners and Whiners is your home for the best sportsbook bonuses on the market. Check out expert handicapping picks for all major sports, including baseball, basketball, hockey, and football!

SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Better Bet, Race 7
Longshot: Bustin Bay, Race 4

R1

Kahfre
Valenzan Day
Mason Mania

#5 KHAFRE (3-1): Is back at what seems like the correct level after a clunker against allowance foes downstate. His wire-to-wire win two starts back was sharp, and Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone to this point in the meet; #6 VALENZAN DAY (3-1): Is another with speed and comes in on a two-race win streak. Horses that can go two turns sure seem to have an edge coming out of the chute, and the most recent score came going longer at Aqueduct; #7 MASON MANIA (6-1): May have lost all chance at the break last time out against state-bred optional claiming foes. He comes back for a much smaller tag, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he’s shown he can run well at this level, and a return to his early-2024 form gives him a chance.

R2

Good Mission (MTO)
Generous Luva
Majulu

#1 GENEROUS LUVA (7/2): Drops in for a tag after showing speed twice against state-bred maiden special weight foes downstate. She adds both blinkers and Lasix, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., opts to stay aboard when he likely had several options; #10 MAJULU (4-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf event a few weeks ago. This is another adding Lasix, and given the pedigree, I have to think she’ll move forward getting onto the grass; #3 REALTA (10-1): Ran the best race of her career two starts ago, which doubled as her only turf race to date. She made up quite a bit of ground that day, and a return to her preferred surface means she could be rolling late at a price.

R3

Pure Force
World Record
Jefferson Street

#3 PURE FORCE (9/2): Hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts to date and may very well be the biggest price in the Grade 2 Amsterdam. I love the two-back bullet drill over the training track, and despite the only-OK win percentage, Brad Cox trainees are firing at this stand; #1 WORLD RECORD (3-1): May have been a bit too far back in the Maxfield last time out, and the rail draw means he may need to be quicker here. His wire-to-wire win two back at Churchill was sharp, and Prat sees fit to ride back; #4 JEFFERSON STREET (8/5): Ran very well last time out and might well be favored, but I have my doubts. That race fell apart up front and was against a much weaker field. Add in that the main track was playing very, very fast that day, and I’m just not sure he can replicate that kind of performance. Against this field, he may have to, and that makes him a likely underlay I need to try to beat.

R4

Occult
Bustin Bay
Stonewall Star

#1 OCCULT (8/5): Gets significant class relief after spending the last year and a half going against top-notch competition. She’s a Grade 3 winner with a Grade 1 placing, and the inside draw out of the Wilson chute is a big, big plus for what seems like the horse to beat; #3 BUSTIN BAY (12-1): Seems like an inflated price off of a race that was far, far shorter than her desired distance (and, as such, seems like a throwout). She loves Saratoga, has plenty of tactical speed, and should be prominent throughout; #5 STONEWALL STAR (5-1): Has hit the board in 11 of 13 lifetime starts and was second in an off-the-turf stakes race at this route last month. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one gets to add Lasix in what is, on paper, a drop in class (but an event that came up very, very tough for the condition).

R5

Outtawaterbury
Judge Rules
Dyna Point

#10 OUTTAWATERBURY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. I went here because he sure seems like the main speed in a race devoid of it. I’m not sure if he really wants two turns, but he does drop in class, which could wake him up; #8 JUDGE RULES (3-1): Closed well to be second last time out in a race that had a bit more zip up front early on than this spot likely will. The rider switch to Flavien Prat is a big one, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives him a shot, but he may need to show a bit more early interest; #2 DYNA POINT (8-1): Ships up from Maryland after stepping forward in his first start for a new barn last time out. This is probably a tougher spot, but Luis Saez has been enticed to ride and any sort of a move forward gives this gelding a shot in a wide-open event.

R6

Off Script
Miss Welch
Accelerating

#6 OFF SCRIPT (5/2): Possesses a massive two-back bullet drill that jumps off the page in this fascinating 2-year-old event. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance, and she hammered for $200,000 at auction last summer across the street; #9 MISS WELCH (7/2): Runs for Jeremiah Englehart, who has enjoyed plenty of success already this summer, and possesses a precocious pedigree. This daughter of Maclean’s Music is out of a mare that won first time out and has already produced first-out winner (and stakes winner) Downtown Mischief; #3 ACCELERATING (3-1): Sold for $325,000 earlier this year and is by champion sprinter Mitole. She’s got a few fast works on the tab, but the bottom-side pedigree indicates she may need a race or two (and possibly some more distance) to strut her best stuff.

R7

Dreamlike (MTO)
Better Bet
Be Like Clint

#5 BETTER BET (7/2): Had a very eventful trip last time out at Aqueduct in a race I have no problem drawing a line through. His two and three-back efforts were both sharp, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., sure seems like a clue in this turf marathon; #6 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Has run well in a pair of starts at this distance downstate and has some versatility. He closed from way back two starts ago, but was much closer last time out, which gives Javier Castellano several options; #2 VESTING (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after a wire-to-wire win last month. The connections merit respect, and he may go favored, but he sat a picture-perfect trip that day and there’s other speed (at least on paper) in this spot. He’s not impossible, but may need to improve to make it two in a row.

R8

Celestial Glaze (MTO)
Run Curtis Run
Mid Day Image

#2 RUN CURTIS RUN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but likes this route and was a very, very good second behind a stakes-quality winner at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. His running lines show a bunch of classy horses, he draws well, and this seems like an ideal spot; #11 MID DAY IMAGE (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in off the AE list but merits respect if he does. He’s found his form this season at Laurel in several races at this distance, and he should get plenty of pace to run at; #4 FAUCI (12-1): Doesn’t like to win, but is a fun horse to root for given his running style and ability to pick up a check. He’s hit the board in all six local starts, has a right to improve second off a long layoff, and is another that should be rolling late.

R9

Accretive
Zozos
Scotland

#1 ACCRETIVE (5-1): Exits a clunker in the Grade 2 True North but drops down in class and is allowed to run on Lasix. That sure seems to be the key, judging by the four starts on his page with the anti-bleeding medication, and his two wins here last summer show he likes this surface; #9 ZOZOS (4-1): Is one of many in here with lots of back class. Two starts ago, he ran third in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, and he won three stakes races a season ago. That last-out clunker raises some questions, but anything close to his 2023 form gives him a big chance; #12 SCOTLAND (6-1): Won the Curlin here a season ago and comes back to New York after a few runs at Churchill Downs. Junior Alvarado knows this one well, and the far-outside post should give horse and rider plenty of options against a classy group.

R10

Mission Hill
Film Academy
Wind Dancer

#5 MISSION HILL (5/2): Is approaching “now or never” status after three straight starts as a beaten favorite. The slight cutback in distance should help him, though, and his two-back effort here off the layoff was a very good effort. Another defeat, though, may put him on this handicapper’s “never again” list; #4 FILM ACADEMY (5-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start since January and has a right to improve second off the bench. There isn’t a ton of other speed in here, and I’m expecting Jose Ortiz to get aggressive out of the gate. Such a trip could mean he leads them a long way; #6 WIND DANCER (7/2): Adds blinkers in what’s just his third lifetime start and could have more room to improve than his opponents. His debut here was solid, and he wasn’t too far behind my top choice last time out.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,064.75

I’ve been following racing at Saratoga for almost 30 years. I’ve never seen a $10,000 claimer on a card before, but one makes an appearance Thursday.

I’m not going to skewer the racing secretary too much for this. It’s the job of a secretary to card races that fill, based on the horses that are on the backstretch, and this one goes with eight runners. However, it wasn’t all that long ago that Saratoga barely carded claiming races of any kind, and the appearance of this one is jarring.

There’s always chatter about Saratoga adding dates or starting earlier. I’m not a fan of that idea for a number of reasons, and this is one of them. If Saratoga adds dates, these are the races we’ll see more and more, and that’s not the Saratoga I know and have loved since I was a kid.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Clearly Unhinged appeared to have every shot in the Honorable Miss but never really kicked on. I dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m focusing on the seventh, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #2 DOT’S DOLLAR, and I’ll try to extract some value out of that one in a few ways. I’ll have a $13 win bet, and he’s a single for me in $5 doubles starting with #3 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD, #4 ARK ROYAL, and #7 IN THE CHASE in the sixth and ending with #5 LA BANQUERA and #8 DOLOMITE in the eighth. Finally, I’ll have a $2 Pick Three starting in the sixth using all of these horses.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Dot’s Dollar, Race 7
Longshot: Kid Kreesa, Race 10

R1

Young At Heart
Mega Changer
Miss C Banker

#11 YOUNG AT HEART (7/2): Is bred to be a solid turf horse and could have a big chance if she draws in off the AE list. She needs a scratch to run, but given her pedigree and a strong series of works for a high-percentage barn, I think she’s well-meant; #12 MEGA CHANGER (8-1): Is out of the mare Megahertz, who was a fantastic turf runner in her day. She ships up from Penn National and is another who could be very competitive if she draws in; #10 MISS C BANKER (5/2): Showed speed in her debut downstate and has a right to improve at second asking. This barn’s runner’s tend to improve with experience, and such a step forward (combined with scratches that keep the AE’s out) would likely make her the one to catch.

R2

Run Devil
Condiment Girl
Mucho Mama Mia

#4 RUN DEVIL (5-1): Comes back to what’s probably the right level and cuts back to what’s probably the right distance. Her two-turn efforts at Monmouth seem like throwouts, and she should relish a route similar to the one she won at three starts ago; #6 CONDIMENT GIRL (5/2): Takes a big drop in her first start for Linda Rice, and channeling her late-2023 and early-2024 form would strictly make her the one to beat. Those last two starts, though, sure seem like a major step back, and because of that, I’ll try to beat her; #7 MUCHO MAMA MIA (10-1): Has won two of her last three starts, including a restricted claiming event last time out. Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back, and this barn has gotten off to a very strong start this season.

R3

Golden Degree (MTO)
Idea Generation
High Stick

#7 IDEA GENERATION (8/5): Makes her 2024 debut in this spot and is a major player if she’s ready to run. Her 2023 campaign included a second-place finish in the Grade 3 Waya, and Chad Brown-trained comebackers always merit respect; #8 HIGH STICK (5/2): Comes up from Monmouth and is the likely early speed in this event. She went wire-to-wire going a mile and a quarter last season, so this distance may very well be what she wants; HOOLIE ENTRY (9/2): I prefer #1A IN TIME, a winner going long in France last year. Her form includes tries in a few Group 2 races there and in Dubai, and her back class could be enough to get her a piece of this.

R4

Unsolved Mystery (MTO)
Pallotta Sisters
Miss Bonnie T

#9 PALLOTTA SISTERS (8/5): Takes a significant class drop for a barn that doesn’t do this very often. However, this ownership group is an aggressive one, so perhaps they’re calling the shots. Either way, anything close to either of her outings this year would make her a formidable favorite; #2 MISS BONNIE T (10-1): Provides value underneath due to her demonstrated love of the Saratoga turf course. She has three top-two finishes in four local starts, and she goes third off the bench here beneath Javier Castellano; #7 ELLE EST FORTE (5/2): Rallied to finish second in May downstate and is another dropping down in class. She may need a pace to run at, but if she gets one, she should be heard from late.

R5

Pletcher entry
Masterwork
Paynter’s Prodigy

PLETCHER ENTRY (1-1): I’m not a fan of the price, but #1A UNLIMITEDPOTENTIAL seems very, very tough. Something clearly went wrong in the last-out clunker at Churchill Downs, which came after a solid maiden-breaking score at Keeneland. If this one does not run, though, #1 WHISKEY N SODA seems like a bet-against at his likely price; #9 MASTERWORK (5-1): Drops in after tiring against $40,000 claimers last time out and stretches back out to a two-turn distance. He’s also been gelded since the last-out clunker, and that could also move him forward; #3 PAYNTER’S PRODIGY (12-1): Hasn’t run since January but hasn’t performed badly in two starts to date. He won going two turns at first asking at Laurel, then finished third over Gulfstream’s synthetic surface before going to the sidelines.

R6

In the Chase
Ark Royal
Shakeitforthebird

#7 IN THE CHASE (3-1): Debuts for a sharp first-out barn and is bred to be a runner. His dam’s three prior foals to race are all winners, and third dam Darien Miss is the damn of multiple Grade 1 winner Fleet Renee and Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Future Quest, among others; #4 ARK ROYAL (6-1): Is another first-time starter with a productive dam. He’s kin to four winners and has been working well in the mornings for a trainer that doesn’t always ask for a ton out of his first-time starters; #3 SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD (9/2): Posted several sharp works at Finger Lakes and has been stabled at Saratoga for a few weeks. When these connections ship in, they mean business, and you’ll want to watch the tote board early to see if smart money shows up.

R7

Dot’s Dollar
Printrack
Magnolia Midnight

#2 DOT’S DOLLAR (4-1): Is one of only a few in here that’s shown they can pass others late, and exits a sharp score downstate beneath Flavien Prat. Prat sees fit to ride back in this spot, and he should have plenty of pace to chase in this seven-furlong starter allowance; #6 PRINTRACK (2-1): Hasn’t finished out of the exacta in more than a year and figures to be prominent early. His last-out score wasn’t bad, but he’ll likely have to go much faster early on in this spot; #5 MAGNOLIA MIDNIGHT (4-1): Chased my second choice home last time out, and I have to think they’ll be a bit more aggressive early on here. He’s shown an affinity for this track in the past, and it’s possible a return to upstate New York wakes him up.

R8

Dolomite
La Banquera
Better Humor Me

#8 DOLOMITE (8/5): Comes off the bench for Chad Brown and gets Lasix for the first time in her 3-year-old debut. She was last seen running third in the Grade 2 Demoiselle, comes back in a first-level allowance against state-bred competition, and looms large provided she’s ready to run; #5 LA BANQUERA (4-1): Tried stakes company at second asking and may have bounced off of a sharp first-out score. She earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure in her unveiling, easily the highest such number of any horse in this field, and a return to that form would give her a big chance; #1 BETTER HUMOR ME (8-1): Ran fairly well in a four-start 2023 campaign and has been training steadily for Charlton Baker ahead of her return off of a long layoff. Regular rider Kendrick Carmouche knows her well, and she’s shown an ability to sit back and pass others late, which could come in handy.

R9

Roses for Debra
Kaufymaker
Dontlookbackatall

#10 ROSES FOR DEBRA (8/5): Was a hard-luck second in the Grade 2 Intercontinental, and I’m pretty sure Irad Ortiz, Jr., wants that ride back. Horse and rider moved too late that day, and I simply don’t think that scenario plays out again in the Grade 3 Caress; #4 KAUFYMAKER (9/2): Did a lot of the dirty work up front in the Intercontinental, which was her first start in nine months. Given the long layoff and fast pace, I thought she ran very well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s once again the one to catch late; #8 DONTLOOKBACKATALL (10-1): Hasn’t finished outside the top two since 2022 and comes in off of back-to-back scores in listed stakes races. This is a class test, and Irad hops off to ride my top choice, but Joel Rosario riding for Christophe Clement isn’t exactly a bad thing.

R10

Kid Kreesa
Dakota Country
Koru

#5 KID KREESA (20-1): Is a wacky pick in a Thursday finale where I simply don’t have much of a strong opinion. However, in a race without much other gate speed, this one has shown early interest, and I think there’s a chance he goes early without much competition and forgets to stop; #12 DAKOTA COUNTRY (5/2): Drops in for a tag and may be talented enough to overcome the terrible outside draw. His last-out effort was a solid second against maiden special weight foes, and the recent bullet drill hints that he’s doing well; #7 KORU (7/2): Was fourth in the race my second choice exits and adds blinkers for Chad Brown. His two-back effort wasn’t a bad one, and that day’s winner came right back to win at next asking. The question is, is there enough pace signed on to set up for this one’s late kick?

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,094.75

Sunday was an example of a good day to play the Grand Slam. I had a strong opinion in the payoff leg and left a few short prices off of my ticket. Those short prices didn’t hit the board in the opening three legs, which knocked out plenty of players.

As a result, my $18 ticket had a $1 will-pay of about $118 to my single, which went off at odds of 2-1. By playing the Grand Slam, though, I was able to significantly improve my potential payoff.

This didn’t wind up hitting, as Rocketeer was one of six second-place finishes by top picks on Sunday. At a minimum, though, it’s a reminder about the value of playing the right wagers at the right times, even if they’re not necessarily the glamorous ones.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the feature, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. It’s the seventh of nine on the card, and it houses my best bet of the day, #4 CLEARLY UNHINGED. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on her in hopes that we get the 5-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

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SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS

Best Bet: Clearly Unhinged, Race 7
Longshot: Leon Blue, Race 2

R1

Macaw
Two Tons of Fun
Shakin the Belle

#2 MACAW (4/5): Will be a popular pick in the Wednesday lid-lifter on a significant class drop in his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. The price doesn’t excite me, but neither does this field, and anything close to his two and three-back efforts would likely make him very tough to beat; #1 TWO TONS OF FUN (9/2): Drops in for a tag after a failed turf experiment last time out. His two prior outings downstate weren’t terrible, and perhaps the shallower waters will wake him up; #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE (5-1): Has hit the board in his last three outings, all against similar stock, and figures to be on or near the lead from the jump. Flavien Prat has gotten to know him well over his last few starts, and he’s off to a flying start at the meet.

R2

Leon Blue
Army Proud
Pay the Juice

#5 LEON BLUE (10-1): Hammered for $100,000 earlier this year and has been working very well ahead of his unveiling. He’s kin to multiple stakes winner Allure of Money, and given the likely namesake (late trainer Leon “Blue” Blusiewicz), this would be a very popular winner; #9 ARMY PROUD (6-1): Debuts for Joe Sharp, whose first-out numbers aren’t great but get much better if you solely focus on debuting turf runners. His dam, Jc’s Shooting Star, was a New York stalwart, and this son of Army Rule has a right to be a runner; #7 PAY THE JUICE (7/2): Sold for $200,000 in March and has been working steadily for Shug McGaughey. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and while this barn tends to be patient with young horses, there’s reason to think he’s well-meant first time out.

R3

Malu
Chasing Daylight
Echo in Eternity

#7 MALU (9/2): Was a runaway winner here just a week ago and wheels right back first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s done well with that move in the past. Toss the two-back, two-turn clunker at Churchill, and her record looks far better; #9 CHASING DAYLIGHT (9/5): Will likely go favored here, but she hits me as the type of chalk you’re supposed to go against. She’s winless in six starts this season, the outside draw doesn’t usually work well out of the Wilson chute, and these connections have yet to get going at this meet; #3 ECHO IN ETERNITY (6-1): Returns to dirt after a failed turf try last time out. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back after that, which is encouraging, and she’s run well enough a few times this season to merit consideration in deeper exotics.

R4

Big Ego
Stanley Rough
Janssen

#1 BIG EGO (6/5): Could continue a big day for the Linda Rice barn, as she’ll saddle another short-priced runner here. He chased a much-the-best winner here last month, looks like the main speed, and should be able to capitalize on an inside draw out of the chute; #8 STANLEY ROUGH (10-1): Was never a factor last time out, but ignore that race and his form looks much better than his likely price. His two-back effort was a solid one, and against an uninspiring field for the level, a similar type of run could get him a big check; #9 JANSSEN (6-1): Looks like the only other possible speed in the race, aside from the chalk. Turf clearly isn’t what he wants, judging by the last-out clunker, and he ran second in three straight races at this level earlier this year.

R5

Andy Cant (MTO)
Sanderson
Scat Tu Tap

#8 SANDERSON (7/2): Was pretty highly-regarded last season, when his connections tried him in the Central Park at Aqueduct. The drop in for a $50,000 tag is curious, but he had every right to need his 2024 debut last month, and this barn is scorching at the moment; #6 SCAT TU TAP (3-1): Probably went just a bit too long last time out and gets both a shorter distance and a class drop here. If he can bring his Gulfstream Park form to upstate New York, he’ll have a big shot; #7 FUNNY UNCLE (10-1): Has a right to improve on turf in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. His pedigree is all-turf, and his only try on it was quite a while ago. His dirt form carrying over to the lawn would give him a chance at a nice price.

R6

Cinderella’s Cause (MTO)
Overacting
Spooky Lady

#7 OVERACTING (7/2): Wanted no part of an off-the-turf race last time out and goes back to her preferred surface here. Her 2024 debut was easily her best race yet, and further improvement third off the bench for Chad Brown would make her a handful; #3 SPOOKY LADY (3-1): Is a consistent sort that should be forwardly-placed beneath Flavien Prat. She was a close-up third last time out against similar company, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #5 SPINNING COLORS (6-1): Returns after a break of more than 10 months, and she got pretty sharp last summer before going to the sidelines. One of those races was a win at this route, and the presence of jockey John Velazquez is encouraging.

R7

Clearly Unhinged
Munnys Gold
Accede

#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED (5-1): Is 2-for-2 this season after a trainer switch to Steve Asmussen. One of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill. She seems to have only improved since a runner-up finish here in last season’s Grade 1 Test, and she may provide value in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; #8 MUNNYS GOLD (2-1): Cruised home over a much weaker field here last month and dives back into deeper waters. Her best race could win this, sure, but it’s worth noting she’s 4-for-4 with Lasix, 0-for-3 without it, and will be a very short price against some heavy-hitting female sprinters; #1 ACCEDE (4-1): Is another that has progressed at age four, and she’ll be looking for her fourth straight victory here. She comes in off of a gutty win in a Grade 2 downstate, and a similar effort likely gets her a check here.

R8

Mystic Night (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Kalik

#2 BOURBON DAY (9/2): Ships in after five wins in his last 10 starts, including a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Prat hopping aboard is absolutely a plus, especially given his history of success for this barn (one of the highest-percentage outfits in the country); #8 KALIK (3-1): Won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge a season ago but hasn’t come close to those heights since. His last outing was certainly against better horses, and runner-up Major Dude came back to win over the weekend, but this drop is an alarming one, even by the standards of an aggressive barn that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box; #11 PAROS (7/2): Draws an absolutely terrible post but is talented enough to merit consideration. His last-out win against similar was solid, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown (especially if jockey Jose Ortiz can find a way to save ground).

R9

Lucky and Gorgeous
Lu’s Redemption
Saving Memories

#4 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (7/2): Finally got to run on turf last time out and relished the new surface. She was second behind a much-the-best winner that day, Prat rides back, and any sort of progression would give her a big chance in the nightcap; #7 LU’S REDEMPTION (4-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, which isn’t as big a drop in a state-bred race as it is against open company but is still a notable class move. Her two efforts downstate weren’t necessarily bad, and she doesn’t have to move forward all that much; #10 SAVING MEMORIES (10-1): Doesn’t have the best form on paper, but was just three lengths behind my top pick last time out. Another far-outside draw certainly doesn’t help, but if you’re going price-shopping, it’s not like a three-length reversal on one of the favorites is totally out of the question.