BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $823.90

School may not start in New York for another week or so, but the academic year is already in full swing here in California. Students went back to classrooms in mid-August, and I’ll use this space to send a very simple, very important message: Be nice to teachers.

Everybody’s been struggling during the pandemic, and when it comes to a topic as complex as education, there are no easy answers to questions every family faces. With that in mind, though, teachers have been calling audibles and pivoting how they do very difficult jobs for a year and a half now, and they’re not immune to the stresses and fatigue that exist in everyone’s mind, in one way or another.

I’m admittedly biased. My girlfriend’s an elementary school teacher, and I hear stories about what she’s dealing with now that kids are back in the classroom (for now, at least). This isn’t easy on anyone, and it costs nothing to be kind, especially to those who are underpaid and largely under-appreciated.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Everything was cancelled when Mubarmaj, who would’ve been a very heavy favorite in the second race, scratched out of that event.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’m looking forward to seeing #5 SILVERY RILL run back in the ninth, the P.G. Johnson. I’m a believer in the maiden race she exits, and I’ll single her to finish off the Grand Slam, which starts in the sixth. My $2 ticket reads as follows: 1,6,10 with 6,7,9 with 4,10 with 5. I’ll also have a $14 win ticket on her as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Java Buzz, Race 2
Longshot: Hot Doctor, Race 10

R1

Yes I’m Evil
Blue Atlas
Coworth Park

#6 BLUE ATLAS: Almost certainly needed her return to the races, which came off of a layoff of nearly a year. Her last race at this level came in July of 2020, and she was clearly best that day. Improvement second off the bench is logical, and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride back in the Thursday lid-lifter; #4 COWORTH PARK: Takes a suspicious drop in for a tag after racing against stakes foes at Gulfstream Park two and three starts ago. She spent a lot of time at Monmouth Park after her last-out effort, which is sometimes a red flag, and she’s a 3-year-old going up against a decent group of older horses for the level; #8 MOPOLKA: Drops back to the claiming ranks after running two competitive races against state-bred allowance foes at this stand. She won both of her last two starts against claimers, and she figures to be prominent from a very early stage.

R2

Java Buzz
Liza’s Ready
Slipstream

#1 JAVA BUZZ: Didn’t break well in his unveiling at this route, but he still managed to run a very good second that day. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but he likely gained a ton of experience in his debut and would be tough to beat if he takes a logical step forward; #9 LIZA’S READY: Seems like the best-meant of the two Wesley Ward trainees entered to run in this event. This daughter of top turf influence More Than Ready sports a very fast drill on August 13th, and John Velazquez sees fit to ride; #2 SLIPSTREAM: Comes back to the turf after running a distant third in a race rained off the grass back in July. He’s bred to love the lawn, and he’s also got a pedigree that suggests he’ll get better with experience.

R3

Esotica
Red Pepper Grill
East Wing

#2 ESOTICA: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out to thrash state-bred maiden claimers earlier in the meet. On paper, this seems like a big class jump, but there isn’t a ton of speed in this event, she’s worked well downstate, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back for Mike Maker; #4 RED PEPPER GRILL: Cuts back to a sprint distance after a failed two-turn experiment last time out. Her two-back effort saw her run second at this level and route despite a wide trip, and the faster they go early, the better this closer’s chances figure to be; #7 EAST WING: Showed brief speed against higher-priced claimers last time out and returns from a brief freshening in this spot. The outside draw is certainly a plus, and if she can find the form she showed earlier this season at Tampa Bay Downs, she wouldn’t be a big surprise.

R4

Aloha West
Three Technique
American Power

#4 ALOHA WEST: Got his nose down over optional claiming foes last time out, and he’s really never run a bad race to this point in his career. He comes in off of a string of eye-catching workouts, and he’s certainly a legitimate favorite in a fun optional claimer; #5 THREE TECHNIQUE: Was third two starts ago in the Grade 2 John Nerud downstate and exits the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt, where he couldn’t keep pace with some very fast horses. He’s shown an affinity for this seven-furlong distance, and he’s shown enough early speed to where he could be pretty close to the early pace; #2 AMERICAN POWER: Seems like the most logical early speed horse in this compact field and is another with significant back class. He won the Grade 3 Toboggan over the winter at Aqueduct, and that victory came at this seven-furlong distance.

R5

Boldish (MTO)
Mubtadaa
Brown entry

#3 MUBTADAA: Drops in for a tag for the first time and hasn’t done much wrong in four starts against maiden special weight foes. He looks like the main speed in here, and that trip usually makes horses tough to catch in races run on the inner turf course; BROWN ENTRY: Both #1 DEREGULATION and #1A DEFERRED TAXES are dropping in class, and they’ll likely take significant money due in large part to their red-hot trainer. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because both runners are closers and they may not get a closer-friendly race shape; #8 ARUBA: Boasts a 345 turf Tomlinson figure, and that’s no shock given his world-class pedigree. He’s by Kitten’s Joy, out of an Anabaa mare, and finally makes it to the races for his career debut as a 4-year-old.

R6

Illuminato
The Institute
Ava K’s Boy

#10 ILLUMINATO: Hammered for $220,000 and draws a great outside post in his debut for red-hot trainer Brad Cox. His recent gate works jump off the page, leading rider Luis Saez sees fit to ride, and the 9/2 morning line hits me as a pretty significant overlay; #1 THE INSTITUTE: Debuts for a barn that’s quietly hit at a 20% clip this summer and one that’s shown it can have first-time starters ready to run. Sire Into Mischief throws some of the most precocious foals around, and the last two drills indicate he may be ready to run; #6 AVA K’S BOY: Is a heck of a hunch play (I’m the uncle of an Ava K.) and a second-time starter that should improve off of a decent debut. He was third in his unveiling a few weeks ago, and his pedigree suggests he’ll only get better as he gets older.

R7

Gotta Go Mo
Tiple
Time Limit

#7 GOTTA GO MO: Chased Caravel in a pair of stakes races two and three back and suffered a dirty beat last time out, when she was beaten a nose at this level and route a few weeks ago. She’s a consistent turf sprinter with plenty of early speed, and she hits me as the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #6 TIPLE: Came back running off of a long layoff and was beaten less than two lengths in the same race my top pick exits. That was her first race since September, and with a pretty significant amount of early zip in the starting gate, she could be sitting on significant improvement at a price; #9 TIME LIMIT: Has taken to this route like a duck to water and will go for her third consecutive win in this spot. She stepped forward to top allowance foes last time out, but she may need another career-best effort here against a good group, and the outside post isn’t ideal.

R8

Candy Tycoon
Two Thirty Five
American Tattoo

#4 CANDY TYCOON: Takes a drop into the claiming ranks and has been fancied enough by his barn to run in some pretty tough spots. He was fifth at this route last month behind a stakes-caliber runner in Danny California, and anything close to his best would make him a formidable favorite; #10 TWO THIRTY FIVE: Has found stakes company too tough in both of his last two outings. Most recently, he showed some speed before fading to last in a $100,000 stakes race at Pimlico, but he’s shown an ability to beat runners at this level in the past, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; #3 AMERICAN TATTOO: Exits a third-place finish for a slightly higher tag and will likely show the way into the first turn. He chased a runaway winner last time out, but did set a solid pace and may not need to go quite as quickly early on in this spot.

R9

Silvery Rill
Mystic Eyes
Expand the Map

#5 SILVERY RILL: Exits one of my favorite 2-year-old races of the summer, one that’s already produced a next-out winner. She may have moved a bit early that day, but it’s not easy to debut going two turns and her pedigree says she’ll move forward as she gets older and gains seasoning; #9 MYSTIC EYES: Never looked like a loser in a very strong debut, where she routed a field of turf sprinters by nearly five lengths. This is a significant jump in class, and the two-turn route is a question mark, but the Pletcher/Velazquez tag team merits respect and it’s not like her pedigree says she can’t go long; #3 EXPAND THE MAP: Was a beaten odds-on favorite earlier this summer, but she’s worked well since then for Chad Brown and may very well go favored in the P.G. Johnson. She’s another that could improve at second asking, but I prefer the race my top pick exits to the one this filly comes out of.

R10

Stonecoldwarrior (MTO)
Hot Doctor
Babagram

#3 HOT DOCTOR: Goes back to a sprint distance after a failed two-turn experiment against maiden special weight foes. His races going shorter were not bad, and between the return to his preferred distance and the class drop, I’m expecting an improved effort at a bit of a price; #6 BABAGRAM: Looked to have every chance last time out at this level and route when second beaten just a length. He has tactical speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, and that should give jockey Manuel Franco plenty of options out of the gate; #7 SANDOR CLEGANE: Likely needed her return to the races off of a very long break, and he gets Lasix for the first time while returning to the lawn. He finished fourth against maiden special weight foes two back at Belmont, and he hits me as the most likely leader as the field rolls along the far turn.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $823.90

My girlfriend and I went out to dinner Sunday after I got back from my whirlwind trip to the first of four weddings in six weeks. Shortly after we sat down for dinner in San Ramon, California, a gentleman walked in wearing a Saratoga t-shirt.

To my abject horror, he had no clue who I was (how DARE he?!?!), but we had an amazing 10-minute conversation about the wonders of the Spa and how amazing it is to go to one of horse racing’s last remaining cathedrals. That my girlfriend, by no means a racing fan but someone who got Saratoga’s appeal about five minutes into her first trip there, could understand what we felt made it even more special.

As we head into the last week of the 2021 meet, I urge you to savor that feeling. What Saratoga inspires isn’t something present at every racetrack in the country, and the passion that gets poured into the product each summer is a big reason why I do what I do every season.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Beau Liam was a cinch, but a strange series of events left Montauk Daddy alone on the front end in the race prior to that. He was a chalk I tried to beat, so when he coasted home, I dropped $40.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll employ the same strategy here as well. #2 MUBARMAJ shouldn’t lose the second. I’ll play $5 doubles starting in the steeplechase opener that use #3 RITZY A.P., #4 PERFECT TAPATINO, and #7 PRAYER HOPE, as well as $5 doubles ending in the third that use #1 STATIC FIRE, #6 SWEET SURPRISE, and #12 STORMY STELLA. I’ll also use all of these horses in a $2 Pick Three.

TOTAL WAGERED: $48.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mubarmaj, Race 2
Longshot: Vivazano, Race 10

R1

Prayer Hope
Perfect Tapatino
Ritzy A.P.

#7 PRAYER HOPE: Gets a tepid nod in the final jump race of the meet, an event that hits me as very wide-open. He’s run three strong races this season and comes back to the steeplechase ranks after springing a 12-1 upset on the flat at Colonial Downs; #4 PERFECT TAPATINO: Was on or near the lead most of the way last time out and held on for third. His tactical speed could be an advantage here, and he may have every chance to lead them a long way; #3 RITZY A.P.: Was a bit one-paced last time out in his first start over fences against winners, though he was forced to steady a bit early on in that event. He figures to do his best running late, and he’d benefit from an early speed duel that sets things up for his run.

R2

Mubarmaj
Grit and Glory
Schettino entry

#2 MUBARMAJ: Has won two in a row over higher-level claimers and looms very large in this spot. His lone career defeat going two turns came in the Grade 3 Discovery back in 2019, and if he’s right, the race is for second money; #3 GRIT AND GLORY: Won at this route last summer and has been rested after a claim in June at Belmont Park. It’s possible he’ll need a race off the brief freshening, but he has some prior races that would make him a worthy opponent; SCHETTINO ENTRY: I prefer #1A LEGIT, who sheds blinkers in his first start off the claim by this outfit. He’s chased my top pick a few times, but he’s had trouble at the start in each of his last two outings and could get closer with a clean trip.

R3

Static Fire
Stormy Stella
Sweet Surprise

#1 STATIC FIRE: Makes her debut and has been working very, very fast for trainer Brian Lynch. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a debuting runner, but it sure seems like her connections found a fairly soft spot for her unveiling, and she may be ready to run them off their feet; #12 STORMY STELLA: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but debuted in a much tougher spot and adds blinkers at second asking. I think there are several reasons to expect a step forward, and she may be good enough to overcome a wide draw; #6 SWEET SURPRISE: Rallied to be third in her debut earlier this summer and retains the services of Joel Rosario. She may have gained plenty of seasoning that day, and a step forward would put her right there.

R4

Ice Princess (MTO)
Clara Peeters
Sun Summers

#8 CLARA PEETERS: Hasn’t run in more than a year, but she’s working like a mare ready to get back to business. She fired three consecutive bullets over the turf course at the Oklahoma track, and anything close to the form she showed last season would make her tough; #4 SUN SUMMERS: Hasn’t won in a while but was a deceptively-good third here earlier this summer. It says the turf condition was “good,” but there was a significant storm that hit just before that event, and it says something that she was able to make up any ground at all; #3 CHOATE BRIDGE: Was sixth in a pretty loaded stakes race last time out at Indiana Grand, and she may have needed that race after a two-month break. She’s certainly eligible to improve second off the bench, and she’d benefit if the pace is faster than anticipated.

R5

Speed Effect
Lokoya Road
Breaking Stones

#2 SPEED EFFECT: Sure looks like the main pace presence in a race otherwise light on early zip. His last-out effort was his first try since February of 2020, and his lone win to date came going two turns on dirt at Gulfstream, so the stretch-out should agree with him; #5 LOKOYA ROAD: Showed late interest when third against similar-level competition in mid-August. He’s certainly talented enough to win this and is a logical favorite, but the likely race shape might work against him; #3 BREAKING STONES: Probably lost all chance at the break last time out in his first try against winners. This is a significant drop in class from that event, and a repeat of his winning effort two back could get him a piece of this one at a bit of a price.

R6

Freudian Fate
Big Little Risk
A Colt Named Susie

#9 FREUDIAN FATE: Takes a big drop in class to race against state-bred maiden claimers for just the second time in his career. He also comes back to the dirt for this one after a few failed starts on grass, and some of his dirt races look strong compared to those of his opponents; #6 BIG LITTLE RISK: Was third at this level and route earlier in the meet and was prominent in the lane before fading in the final furlong. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back for H. James Bond, and he figures to be prominent early; #8 A COLT NAMED SUSIE: Exits a key maiden special weight race on turf that produced three next-out winners. The drop in for a tag is notable, and while his dirt races aren’t special, he boasts a very strong five-furlong dirt drill earlier this month. He may not have to be much to hit the board in a race where the field is a combined 0-for-83.

R7

Jill’s a Hot Mess
Social Whirl
Bonus Baby

#1 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Has found a home sprinting on turf and topped starter allowance foes in her first start at this route. That was a solid field she beat that day, and she has enough early zip to avoid being shuffled back along the rail in the early stages; #9 SOCIAL WHIRL: Has won both of her starts here this summer and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., for her stiffest test to date. This isn’t an easy group, but she’s in form, she’s had plenty of success at this route, and when trainer Tom Morley gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there; #11 BONUS BABY: Makes her first start since February but sports several sharp drills downstate and ran well at this route when second behind the talented Robin Sparkles last summer. The post position isn’t ideal, but she should still be able to drop back and make one run at a price.

R8

Runnin’ Ray
Maker entry
Vindictive

#3 RUNNIN’ RAY: Has won both of his starts this season, including a starter allowance at this route very early in the meet. That day’s runner-up came back to win (albeit in controversial fashion), and this one should have every chance to sit a perfect stalking trip and keep the streak going; MAKER ENTRY: Both #1 MR. TIP and #1A FIRST LINE seem live in this spot. The former exits a very tough allowance race with several legitimate prospects, and the latter boasts several strong efforts earlier this season and exits a failed turf experiment against classier runners; #6 VINDICTIVE: Earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden-breaking score and tries winners for the first time. That effort was a significant step forward from a disappointing debut, though, and if this one is so well-meant, why did the Pletcher barn also enter #4 TEXAS SWING? At his likely price, I’ll try to beat him.

R9

Portfolio Company
Limited Liability
Gooch Go Bragh

#4 PORTFOLIO COMPANY: May have moved a bit early in his debut, but was good enough to hold on that day despite being a bit green. Chad Brown has enjoyed great success with first-out turf routers this meet, and I think it’s telling this one is his only runner in the Grade 3 With Anticipation; #1 LIMITED LIABILITY: Came storming home to win his debut going away for trainer Shug McGaughey, who doesn’t always have his first-time starters fully cranked. If there’s hesitation here, it’s that a few runners from that race came back on Travers Day, but none won the maiden special weight they ran in; #3 GOOCH GO BRAGH: Was second behind a promising runner that put forth a head-turning performance (in more ways than one) last time out. That day’s winner would be one of the favorites in this spot, so I can’t hold the defeat against this one too much.

R10

Vivazano
Tingling Mint
Fist Full of Dice

#9 VIVAZANO: Gets one more chance from me in the Wednesday finale after a tough beat last time out in an off-the-turf race. Her lone turf race to date was a pretty strong effort, as she was third against what seems like a better group, and I think she’ll be forwardly-placed in a group without many that want to pass others; #8 TINGLING MINT: Is bred up and down to want to go long on the lawn, and debuts getting that precise route of ground for a trainer that excels with first-time starters on turf. This daughter of Lemon Drop Kid is out of a Footstepsinthesand mare, and she may not have to be all that much to win on debut; #5 FIST FULL OF DICE: Ships in after several strong late runs at Belterra Park and merits a look at a big price. Unlike others in this field that haven’t shown an ability to pass others, this one will do her best running late, and the price figures to be right.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $863.90

I’m typing this from Boston’s Logan Airport, which I’d always considered to be one of my favorite airports on the east coast. However, that perception changed Saturday afternoon, when I got through security, settled down at my gate, and tried to boot up several different ADW websites. All of them were blocked by the airport’s wireless internet, which apparently prohibits any sort of gambling activity (even what can be accessed through a smart phone not using that WiFi network).

I find this insane. ADW’s are legal in the state of Massachusetts, and the airport itself is a 20-minute drive from what’s left of Suffolk Downs. I haven’t encountered a restriction like this at any other airport, and I’ll take this opportunity to once again thank NYRA for streaming their daily show on YouTube. That allowed me to watch several races on Travers Day when Logan Airport decided doing so through ADW’s would somehow be irresponsible.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Third-race upsetter Kitten by the Sea knocked me out of doubles and Pick Fours. I dropped $32.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll attempt to extract value out of #2 BEAU LIAM, who will be a very heavy favorite in the eighth (and justifiably so). Since I like several prices in the seventh, I’ll play doubles starting there. $10 tickets will start with #4 STANHOPE, #7 DETERMINED FURY, #8 BARDOLINO, and #10 ELUSIVE EDGE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Beau Liam, Race 8
Longshot: Stanhope, Race 7

R1

High Heater
First Homestead
Moonachie

#2 HIGH HEATER: Was second at this level last summer and makes a lot of sense in the Sunday lid-lifter. His two misfires on dirt for this barn came against higher-level competition, and leading rider Luis Saez rides back when he probably had a few other options; #6 FIRST HOMESTEAD: Has reeled off three wins in a row at Finger Lakes and ships in with his regular rider in tow. That’s one of my favorite angles at Saratoga, and this 6-for-14 gelding certainly fits on speed figures; #1 MOONACHIE: Takes a drop in class and may be favored in this spot, but I have some doubts despite an arrival in shallower waters. The rail draw can be tricky, and while his best is good enough to win this, I simply can’t stomach the likely price given the chance of a less-than-ideal trip.

R2

Charleston Strong
Partner’s Hope
Ring of Fire

#9 CHARLESTON STRONG: Drops in for a tag and cuts back to a sprint distance, and I think he’s going to respond favorably to both changes. His effort two starts back going seven furlongs at Belmont was a career-best one, and anything close to that performance will make him tough; #4 PARTNER’S HOPE: Drops back in for a tag after running fifth against maiden special weight foes just a few days ago. This barn can win with quick turnarounds, and he figures to be heard from late; #3 RING OF FIRE: Has been gelded since his last start and tries turf for the first time for a barn making lots of right moves this summer. His 321 turf Tomlinson rating indicates he’ll relish the grass, and he’s shown plenty of early zip in starts against straight maidens at Indiana Grand.

R3

Analyze It
Breaking the Rules
Dubb entry

#4 ANALYZE IT: Has an abundance of back class and boasts several races that would top this group if repeated. This multiple Grade 3 winner was fancied enough to be favored in last year’s Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, and I think Chad Brown will have him primed for this one; #2 BREAKING THE RULES: Makes his return to the races off a long layoff but presents an alternative to the likely chalk. He did enough to be 9-1 in the Grade 1 Pegasus Turf Cup at Gulfstream Park, and if a faster-than-expected pace materializes, he stands to be the main beneficiary; #1A SACRED LIFE: Has taken a lot of money since coming to the U.S. in 2019, but he’s only won twice and this is far closer to a graded stakes field than most we’ll see at this level. He’s another that will do his best running late, and the Brown/Irad tag team always merits respect, but at this likely price, I’ll try to beat him.

R4

Perfect Munnings
Too Early
Blue Gator

#2 PERFECT MUNNINGS: Comes off the bench and gets Lasix for the first time in this spot. I’m a bit tentative to endorse Aqueduct form given how quirky that track was this winter, but he’s worked well enough over this track and Luis Saez sees fit to ride; #3 TOO EARLY: Seems to run the same race every time out and has established himself as a consistent stalwart at this level. This means he can’t be ignored, but the problem for win bettors is that he’s been at this level for a while because he’s run second on four straight occasions; #7 BLUE GATOR: Is another coming in off of a freshening and getting Lasix for the first time. He ran well against stakes company before going to the sidelines, and the outside draw should give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options.

R5

Mommasgottarun
Rosebug
A Mo Reay

#2 MOMMASGOTTARUN: Ran well in her debut when she was second and topped the third-place finisher by five lengths. She didn’t have it easy that day, as she led through very fast fractions early on, and she certainly looks like a type that will improve given the experience she gained that day; #9 ROSEBUG: Has been working very well for Bill Mott and is bred to be a very sharp filly. This daughter of American Pharoah is out of Grade 3 winner Taittinger Rose, and the times that are on the tab are atypical of most Mott trainees before their initial outings; #7 A MO REAY: Hammered for $400,000 at auction last year and debuts for Todd Pletcher, so she must be respected. She’s got a few sharp gate works on her tab, and the My Racehorse money will almost certainly be in on this filly by top sire Uncle Mo.

R6

Vagaries
Pearl Earring
Gun Boat

#10 VAGARIES: Fetched a bit more than $217,000 at the Tattersalls sale and, like most of Chad Brown’s acquisitions from that sale, is bred to want this route of ground. Her dam is a half-sister to Group 1 winner Mail the Desert, and she’s a tepid top pick in a fun 2-year-old maiden race; #7 PEARL EARRING: Has been working consistently for Michael Stidham and is worth a look at a price. She’s a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Pixelate, her dam is kin to Grade 2 winner Skylighter, and everything says this Godolphin homebred wants to go a long, long way; #3 GUN BOAT: Is a Stuart Janney homebred with a female family many will recognize. Dam Onus was a Grade 3 winner on turf, and her third dam is the dam of top-class turf runners Ironicus and On Leave, so this first-time starter has every right to be a runner.

R7

Stanhope
Determined Fury
Elusive Edge

#4 STANHOPE: Cuts back to a turf sprint, and given the way he ran off last time, that’s probably for the best. His races two and three back were sharp, and I’m willing to take a swing at a bit of a price in what seems like a wide-open event; #7 DETERMINED FURY: Broke his maiden two back in his turf debut and ran a decent third at this level earlier in the meet despite a wide trip. This is his second start off a layoff, so he could take a step forward, and this barn’s one of the best in the business with turf sprinters; #10 ELUSIVE EDGE: Took a big step forward in his first start on the lawn, when he romped by nearly six lengths a few weeks ago at Colonial. These are far deeper waters and he’ll have to navigate a trip from an outside post, but Saez will hop aboard and maybe he’s finally found what he wants to do.

R8

Beau Liam
Night Time
Amundson

#2 BEAU LIAM: Wouldn’t have been without a chance in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens Saturday, but winds up in a far softer optional claiming event a month after winning a loaded allowance in his first start against winners. He earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and anything close to his first two efforts would mean the race is for second; #4 NIGHT TIME: Was nosed earlier in the meet at this level and was certainly good enough to win that afternoon. He’s been running well against tough horses, and his usual effort would likely get him a big piece of it; #1 AMUNDSON: Relished the mud last time out, when he beat a solid group of state-bred optional claiming foes. He’s run very well at this 6 1/2-furlong distance in the past, trainer Horacio DePaz has quietly enjoyed a strong meet to this point, and he could provide plenty of value in the exotics.

R9

Sifting Sands
In Effect
Danzigwiththestars

#8 SIFTING SANDS: Was somehow sent away at 28-1 last month and got his nose down over a solid group, one that included a third-place finisher that came right back to win. He’s worked consistently since that performance, and a repeat of that day’s effort would give him a big shot in the Better Talk Now; #6 IN EFFECT: Was third in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame won by Public Sector, who would lay over this group. He didn’t have the smoothest trip that afternoon, and it sure seems like there’s enough pace in here to set up for his big late run; #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS: Will go for his third win of the meet in this spot, and he’ll do so taking a big jump in class. He’s run back-to-back career-best races since shipping north, however, and the presence of Saez is a big plus. He’ll be an in-form horse at double-digit odds, and there’s a lot to be said for that.

R10

Mr. Briggs (MTO)
Molino
Chulainn

#2 MOLINO: Wasn’t claimed out of a maiden claiming race in May, one he won despite rating behind a pretty slow early pace. That day’s runner-up, another Chad Brown trainee, came right back to win, and this pedigree suggests he’s about to take a significant step forward at second asking; #6 CHULAINN: Was beaten less than two lengths at this level last time out, and I felt that was a pretty classy field. This seems like a slightly softer spot, Joel Rosario rides back, and a clean trip (something he hasn’t had in his last two outings) should move him up; #11 LORD FLINTSHIRE: Came flying from last to run second in his first start against winners, and he’s improved considerably since going to Jorge Abreu’s barn this past spring. The big field increases the likelihood of some pace in front of him, and if the race shape is a closer-friendly one, he and Jose Lezcano could easily factor at a bit of a price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $895.90

Greetings from the northeast! When you read this ahead of the Friday card, I’ll be in Boston for a wedding. It’s the first of four such events in a six-week stretch for yours truly, which is what happens when nobody gets married for an entire year (thanks, COVID!). If, for some reason, the soon-to-be bride and groom happen to be reading this, know that I extend my warmest congratulations and that I’m happy to be in attendance for the occasion.

I tried to make a Saratoga trip work, way back before I decided to come for Fourstardave Day two weeks ago. Unfortunately, the logistics just didn’t check out and Sunday flights back to California were ridiculously expensive. If you’re headed to the track tomorrow, have a good time for me!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: In a bad beat story as old as time, I went two-deep in the finale to finish out the late double, only for my third choice to rally for the win. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Because of my respect for both this wedding and my editor’s Travers Eve deadline, I’m going to need to keep my action to the first part of the card. Let’s focus on the early Pick Four, where my 50-cent ticket starting in the second goes as follows: 1 with 5,7 with 1,5,8 with 2,5,6,7. I’ll also play a cold $8 double singling #1 MISS ALACRITY in the second and #7 BARRAGE in the third.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Rinaldi, Race 8
Longshot: My Girl Annie, Race 6

R1

Open Til Midnight
Surprise Boss
Blue Deja Vu

#10 OPEN TIL MIDNIGHT: Ran well when third in his unveiling earlier this month and had an adventurous journey that day. Even with the disadvantageous post position draw, I’m expecting significant improvement at second asking, and that would make this one the one to beat; #4 SURPRISE BOSS: Is set to try turf for the first time and has a pedigree that hints he’ll like the surface. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because regular rider Jose Lezcano hops off to ride my top selection, which is a bit curious; #2 BLUE DEJA VU: Debuts for Jeremiah Englehart and has a few works that suggest he has some talent. He’s also got a pretty strong turf pedigree and boasts a 331 turf Tomlinson rating, which can’t go completely ignored.

R2

Miss Alacrity
November Rein
Laoban’s Legacy

#1 MISS ALACRITY: Has won the first two starts of her career and looms large in a return to state-bred competition. She topped open company in the Colleen at Monmouth in her last outing, and a similar effort would make her tough to top; #3 NOVEMBER REIN: Ran very well to graduate at second asking in the opening days of the meet. She earned a 76 Beyer Speed Figure that day, and while I think she may well be best on turf given her pedigree, she’s shown enough talent to merit plenty of respect here; #2 LAOBAN’S LEGACY: Splashed home clear by nearly eight lengths in her unveiling last month. That race didn’t come back particularly well on speed figures, but it was very impressive visually and there’s nothing saying she can’t take a significant step forward here.

R3

Barrage
Yarrow
King Moonracer

#7 BARRAGE: Drops back into the maiden ranks after two tries against stakes foes, and I think he’ll appreciate the shallower waters here. Leading rider Luis Saez will hop aboard for trainer Danny Gargan, and those two mean business when they team up; #5 YARROW: Debuted with a decent third-place finish at Tampa in February and hasn’t run since. The talent level isn’t a concern here, but the layoff is. If he’s ready to run, he’ll have a big chance, but that’s a sizable “if”; #9 KING MOONRACER: Returns to a route distance and could be forwardly-placed early on. His lone other race going long saw him run a decent third at Belmont back in April, and the blinkers coming off may mean he’s maturing midway through his 3-year-old season.

R4

Montebello
Daufuskie Island
Senbei

#5 MONTEBELLO: Led from wire to wire in his unveiling at Del Mar against straight maidens and ships cross-country for Bob Baffert to face fellow New York-breds. It sure seems like he’s been working well, and this may well be a weaker group than the one he beat in his debut a few weeks ago; #8 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND: Romped by five lengths in his debut here and is wheeled back pretty quickly for this event. The outside post should give Dylan Davis plenty of options, and he showed he didn’t necessarily need the lead to run well in that first-out score; #1 SENBEI: Wired a field in the mud last month in his debut, and that’s no shock given his mud-friendly pedigree. This is a tougher spot, and the rail draw won’t make things easy for him, but he should be prominent early and have every opportunity to carry his speed.

R5

I’m Perfect Too (MTO)
Caumsett
Baudi Moovan

#7 CAUMSETT: Gets another shot from me here, and this strikes me as a “now or never” spot for her at this level. The blinkers go on, and she has plenty of early zip already. I think the game plan is simple, and that she may prove extremely tough to catch; #5 BAUDI MOOVAN: Clunked up for fourth in her debut despite a fairly slow start and a wide trip throughout. Saez sees fit to ride, and improvement is logical at second asking for a barn whose horses usually move forward with seasoning; #6 ESCAPEWITHFRIENDS: Cuts back to a sprint distance after tiring going two turns earlier in the season. She ran very well when second in her debut downstate. I think she wants to sprint and could recapture her first-out form in a return to one-turn racing.

R6

My Girl Annie
Bustin Bay
Lot of Honey

#5 MY GIRL ANNIE: Ships in from Finger Lakes and is slated to bring her jockey, which always makes me perk up. She hasn’t run a poor race in New York this season, has a win going seven furlongs, and could present plenty of value in this wide-open allowance event; #8 BUSTIN BAY: Does her best running at this seven-furlong distance and merits respect even considering a significant class jump. This is her first start off the claim for Karl Broberg, who’s very good with new acquisitions, and she should be going the right way late; #2 LOT OF HONEY: Draws an inside post and has plenty of early zip in a race that doesn’t seem to have much of that elsewhere. Joel Rosario will ride for the first time, and if early speed is holding in the early part of the card, her chances improve considerably.

R7

Make Mischief
Pay Grade
Coffee Bar

#9 MAKE MISCHIEF: Takes a big class drop after spending most of the season going up against graded stakes company. She ran third in both the Grade 1 Acorn and Grade 2 Eight Belles, and while two turns is an unknown, her sheer talent may well be enough to carry her to the winner’s circle; #2 PAY GRADE: Re-rallied to top allowance foes going a mile downstate in the final days of Belmont’s spring/summer meet. Her pedigree says two turns won’t be an issue, and jockey Eric Cancel’s aggressive tendencies could make her the one to catch; #8 COFFEE BAR: Was beaten at 2/5 last time out, but, to be fair, that was against older horses and she was wide for most of that race. Blinkers come on, Flavien Prat’s presence can’t be ignored, and perhaps she’s ready for a stronger effort in her third start off a long layoff.

R8

Rinaldi
Mo Ready
Therapist

#2 RINALDI: Snuck away early in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple and led every step of the way. He’s proven to be very, very dangerous when he gets that kind of trip, and I think that’s the journey he gets in this spot as well. If he does, the race is for second; #8 MO READY: Was a good second here earlier in the meet when he contested a solid optional claiming event. He ran third in last year’s Grade 1 Belmont Derby and won races over this turf course in both 2019 and 2020, so we know there’s plenty of talent here; #1 THERAPIST: Has been a stalwart in these state-bred stakes races, and for good reason. He’s a consistent sort that generally runs the same race every time out, and he’d stand to benefit if one of his rivals goes with my top pick out of the gate.

R9

Bobby Bo
Americanrevolution
Bingo John

#5 BOBBY BO: Is another Baffert shipper that flies cross-country to run with his New York-bred brethren. He took a significant step forward when stretched out to a mile last time out, and he seems like the speed of the speed in the Albany; #2 AMERICANREVOLUTION: Has taken significant steps forward in each of his outings, the most recent of which saw him run away with the New York Derby at Finger Lakes. I’m not entirely sure what he beat that day, but he looked great doing it and the breeding sure says he was always going to get better when he got to two-turn races; #4 BINGO JOHN: Won his local debut in come-from-behind fashion and tries winners for the first time in this spot. He’s shown an ability to pass others late, and the faster they go early, the better this Brad Cox trainee’s chances figure to be.

R10

Myhartblongstodady
Kilkea
Pecatonica

#3 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY: Gets some class relief after four straight starts against open company in stakes races. Prior to that stretch, she won four in a row against New York-breds, including the 2020 renewal of this very race, and she reunites with top turf rider Jose Lezcano; #10 KILKEA: Looks an awful lot better if you draw a line through the last-out clunker in an off-the-turf race downstate. She won three of five starts from last summer through February of this year, and she’s got enough speed to give Flavien Prat some options out of the gate; #8 PECATONICA: Didn’t have a great trip last time out in an open allowance race, but has shown a clear affinity for this turf course. She’s chased my top pick on a number of occasions, but there’s enough speed in here to set up for her preferred running style, and I can’t ignore her in the exotics.

R11

Fast Gordon
Tackle
Eight Weeks Long

#8 FAST GORDON: Did everything but win last time out, when he was dropped to this level and got beat by a nose. He’s got plenty of tactical speed and could sit another dream trip beneath Lezcano in the Friday finale; #5 TACKLE: Merits plenty of respect coming in off a long layoff for Mike Maker. He ran several strong races against maiden special weight foes last summer and fall and has every right to win if he’s ready, but that’s no certainly and he’ll likely be a pretty short price; #1 EIGHT WEEKS LONG: Has had a bunch of chances, but seems to have found a home going long on turf at this level. The jockey switch to Prat cannot be ignored, and that may be enough to wake him up and get him home in his 11th career outing.