BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $925.90

Two things: Firstly, Andy Serling tweeted Wednesday that he’s tested positive for COVID-19 and will be away from the track for a few days as a result. Regardless of whatever he thinks of me, I’ve always thought highly of him. I hope he gets well soon and is back on the grounds in short order.

Secondly, the weekly YouTube show I co-host, “Champagne and J.D.,” is on the ballot for America’s Best Racing’s Fan Choice Award for Favorite Podcast/Radio Show. Voting continues through the end of the month, and we’d really appreciate your support. An initial ballot that was blasted out via social media didn’t have us on it, so other shows (several whose hosts/producers we love and respect!) got a head start.

I’d put the work J.D. Fox and I do up against that of anyone else in the industry. We’ve gotten an outstanding lineup of guests and have been fortunate to put together some really cool stuff with people from all over the sport (and, for that matter, from all over the world, too). If you’ve enjoyed what we do as much as we’ve enjoyed doing it, go vote for us!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My late Pick Four play fizzled in the John’s Call, but honestly, it should’ve been toast after the second leg, which featured a puzzling “no change” call from the stewards. Scratches reduced my losses to $24.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I don’t love waiting until the last few races of the day (sorry to those on deadline!), but I need to do so here because the late double looks especially juicy. I’ll play $5 tickets starting with #4 THIRD DRAFT and #7 RASTAFARA in the ninth and ending with #3 FAST GETAWAY and #8 THREE OUTLAWS in the finale. Three Outlaws is also my longshot of the day, and I’ll have a $10 win bet on that one as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Orchestration, Race 3
Longshot: Three Outlaws, Race 10

R1

Let Her Inspire U
Twist Just Right
Regal Rebel

#1 LET HER INSPIRE U: Faded after pressing a legitimate pace in her debut, a race won by a well-meant Kelly Breen trainee. She’s one of just two runners in here with experience, and that seasoning could prove vital in the Thursday opener; #2 TWIST JUST RIGHT: Has been working well for strong first-out trainer Jorge Abreu and attracts Hall of Famer Javier Castellano. If the likely favorite stubs her toe or can’t work out a trip from the rail, she’s probably the most likely winner; #4 REGAL REBEL: Fetched $120,000 earlier this year and may take considerable support at the windows given the MyRacehorse connections. Rob Atras has enjoyed plenty of success this summer, but offspring of Tiznow generally improve with experience, so she may need a start or two to get going.

R2

First Line (MTO)
Bourbon in May
Spirit Animal

#2 BOURBON IN MAY: Won twice in a row in Florida before going to the sidelines and comes back running for a claiming tag. This is a pretty significant drop for a runner that has plenty of talent and boasts eight wins in 21 career starts, and if he’s ready, I think he’ll be tough; #4 SPIRIT ANIMAL: Is another class-dropper that was last seen chasing the likes of Hit The Road in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita. He hasn’t run since March, he may be a very short price, and I think he may be better going one turn at Belmont, but his best race could certainly win this; #10 SMILE BRYAN: Found optional claiming company too tough last time out but found the winner’s circle on Opening Day. The outside post is a bit of a problem, but he’s reunited with leading rider Luis Saez and may be fast enough to clear most of these going into the first turn.

R3

Orchestration
Win Worthy
Cambi Lion

#4 ORCHESTRATION: Came flying late in his debut at Ellis Park, where he was beaten less than two lengths after racing well back in the early going. Everything about him says he’ll love the added distance and is likely to step forward at second asking, and I think he’s a very formidable favorite; #8 WIN WORTHY: Has emerged as a grinding type that should relish the added distance he gets in this spot. He’s got the early speed necessary to sit close out of the gate, and the presence of the aggressive Saez should help him work out that kind of trip; #1 CAMBI LION: Came back running off a brief freshening and missed by a half-length downstate. He’s had a history of wide trips, but draws the rail here and showed a bit more early zip last time out. Jose Ortiz rides back, and maybe he’s doing what he wants to do in this spot.

R4

Miss Liana
Quality Stones
Cathy Naz

#3 MISS LIANA: Unseated Manny Franco last time out earlier in the meet, but that pilot sees fit to ride back and she drops to an even lower price here. She had won three of five starts before that incident, and a recent four-furlong drill shows she may be sitting on another big effort; #7 QUALITY STONES: Ships in from Finger Lakes after three wins and two seconds in her last five outings. These are probably deeper waters, but the outside draw is certainly a plus and she should be forwardly-placed from an early stage; #1 CATHY NAZ: Almost certainly needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first race in six months. She won over this surface a season ago, her best efforts would make her competitive, and Saez sees fit to ride back for Bond when he almost certainly had a few options.

R5

Keepcalmcarryon
Rattle N Roll
Luni Sima

#8 KEEPCALMCARRYON: Stretches out for an old-fashioned 2-year-old maiden race going two turns (more of these, please!) after a pair of seconds going shorter. He’s by Belmont winner Union Rags, out of a Scat Daddy mare, and has run like a horse crying out for more distance. He gets it here and looks very logical; #4 RATTLE N ROLL: Made a significant move in his debut, when he broke 11th of 12 at Churchill and rallied for third. He’s been working very well since shipping to Saratoga, and if he takes to the two-turn distance, he could have a big shot; #2 LUNI SIMA: Made a bit of a middle move in his debut at Ellis Park, which came going a mile. It’s not easy to debut going long, so he’s certainly eligible to improve, and trainer Jack Sisterson has popped at a price with several runners to this point in the meet.

R6

Mommasgottarun (MTO)
Halo of Fire
The Club

#5 HALO OF FIRE: Has been working lights-out over the Oklahoma training track’s turf course and merits respect for 2-year-old maestro Wesley Ward. Few in the game are better with first-time starters in turf sprints, and if she runs to her works, we could see something special here; #7 THE CLUB: Has run second twice in as many starts, and she rallied from last to do so in her unveiling on the lawn downstate. Her most recent effort came in an off-the-turf race, and I think she’ll step forward going back to what seems like her preferred surface; #2 JAZZ TIME GIRL: Has a pedigree that says she’ll love the turf. Her dam, Daring Kathy, was an exceptional grass runner that won multiple stakes races. She exits a recent five-furlong bullet drill at Ellis Park and has attracted Irad Ortiz, Jr., for her unveiling.

R7

Glory Road (MTO)
Montauk Summer
Moliere

#9 MONTAUK SUMMER: May have found 10 furlongs a bit too far last time out, when he was fourth against allowance foes at Belmont. He drops back in for a tag in this spot, and he has early speed in a field very light on that attribute. If he makes an easy lead, he could prove tough to catch; #2 MOLIERE: Makes his first start on the turf and has a pedigree that suggests he’ll take to it. He’s by all-surface superstar Curlin, out of a Theatrical mare, and boasts a 323 turf Tomlinson figure, one of the highest such numbers in the field; #5 MR. VINCENT: May be a pretty big price, but he drops back into the claiming ranks after drawing wide in an allowance event a few weeks ago. This seems like the correct level, and his two-back race has proven to be a key one, as several runners have bounced out of it to perform very well.

R8

Movie Moxy
Easy to Bless
Thoughtfully

#5 MOVIE MOXY: Makes her first start for George Weaver and is a tepid top pick in what hits me as a very puzzling race to decipher. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s also never run a bad race and has finished in the money in all of her 10 lifetime outings. Weaver does great work with new acquisitions and should have her ready to run; #3 EASY TO BLESS: Has won five of her last six starts, including an allowance race first off the claim earlier this month. This is certainly a much tougher spot, but she’s in very good form and has shown she has the speed to sit close and the flexibility to not need the lead in order to run well; #2 THOUGHTFULLY: Won her first two races impressively, and one of them was the Grade 2 Adirondack. She then found two turns to be too much to ask and has been off since November. If she’s ready to run off of the long break, she could be a factor at a surprisingly nice price.

R9

Rastafara
Third Draft
Love and Money

#7 RASTAFARA: Won what’s proven to be a very classy maiden race last month. That day’s runner-up, Ego Trip, came back to hit the board in a graded stakes race over the weekend, and this one could still have plenty of room to improve. Further progression would make her a top contender in the Riskaverse; #4 THIRD DRAFT: Came flying late to win by a nose in the opening week of the meet and takes a logical step into stakes company. If she gets a solid pace to run at, she should once again be moving the right direction late when the real running starts; #10 LOVE AND MONEY: Certainly looks like the most likely early leader in this event. She probably went too fast early on last time out when fourth behind my second section. I don’t think she’ll need to go nearly as quickly early on here, and Saez turning up here is certainly encouraging.

R10

Happy Farm (MTO)
Three Outlaws
Fast Getaway

#8 THREE OUTLAWS: Almost certainly did not care for the yielding going last time out, when he was caught five-wide going around the turn. A return to firmer footing should suit him, and the addition of John Velazquez is never a bad thing to see in the form; #3 FAST GETAWAY: Did everything but win that same race in his last outing, when he set the early fractions and was beaten a neck by a perfect-trip winner. Mike Maker saw fit to claim him out of that race, and he’s worked very well at Belmont since the trainer switch; #9 MYSTERY MESSENGER: Has won just once in his last nine outings, but was a competitive second against similar-level opposition a few weeks ago. Vladimir Cerin saw fit to claim him back in that event, and Joel Rosario takes the call here in the Thursday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $949.90

Sunday was Queen’s Plate Day at Woodbine, and it was a fabulous day of racing. Irad Ortiz, Jr., put forth one of the best rides I’ve seen in quite some time to get Safe Conduct home in the main event. Silent Poet handed Caravel a stunning defeat in the Grade 1 Highlander, and Dylan Davis took the trip up north to win the Grade 2 Dance Smartly aboard Mutamakina.

The card also, however, featured a first-time starter named Arafat. That name gave me pause, and the name of the sire, War On Gaza, didn’t help. Yasser Arafat, of course, led the Palestine Liberation Organization for many years, and the PLO has been recognized as a terrorist organization since 1987. I asked the Jockey Club for more information on how the name was approved and diversity within the registration process. Through its communications department, the organization declined to comment.

Eric Guillot named a horse Grape Soda as a direct attack on TVG anchor Ken Rudulph, and it wasn’t long ago that there was a controversy over a horse named Noose (renamed Scabbard). This begs an important question: What’s happening with the naming process that’s causing these names to get through without being flagged?

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Both subjects of win bets ran second, and my fifth-race exactas fizzled. I dropped $32.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late Pick Four, which starts in the seventh race. My 50-cent ticket looks like this: 2,5 with 4,5 with 3,4,5,6 with 2,5,10,11. The last two races look pretty wide-open, and I think this could pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Waterville, Race 6
Longshot: Cool Quest, Race 5

R1

Rudy Rod
No Burn
Napoleon Complex

#3 RUDY ROD: Tries something I’ve never seen before, in that he’s entered to run in the first race on a Wednesday after racing in the Sunday finale three days prior. He was a good second a few days ago, and a repeat of that race would make him tough; #5 NO BURN: Takes a very big drop in class after showing speed in a pair of turf outings. He does have a few solid works on the dirt, and it’s not like he’d need to be a world-beater or step forward all that much to have a chance; #8 NAPOLEON COMPLEX: Is a big price on the morning line but could clunk up for a piece of it. The race he exits was a fairly tough one for the level. He showed some early zip that day, and the third-place finisher came back to beat my top pick over the weekend.

R2

Quick Return
Extreme Force
Forest Spirit

#3 QUICK RETURN: Cuts back to one turn after a failed two-turn experiment against state-bred allowance foes. He gets Lasix for the first time while returning to what seems like his preferred route of ground, and I’m gambling on a return to form; #1 EXTREME FORCE: Tried turf in his first start off the claim by Mike Maker, and that didn’t go so well. He returns to the dirt and drops in for his lowest claiming tag to date, and he’s got some back races that would make him competitive here; #4 FOREST SPIRIT: Came up a nose short at this level last time out and may go favored, but I have a few reservations. That last race fell apart up front, and they went the last furlong in 14 seconds. There seems to be a bit less pace signed on here, and while he’s talented enough to win, that may work against him.

R3

Singita Dreams (MTO)
Pocket Square
Key Biscayne

#1 POCKET SQUARE: Will be a heavy favorite on a drop in class after chasing Althiqa and Summer Romance in back-to-back Grade 1 events. Any way you look at this race, she towers over this field, and the only thing that could keep her out of the winner’s circle may be a surface switch if the turf course needs to dry out; #4 KEY BISCAYNE: Makes her first start for Mike Maker and showed enough class last summer to run third in the Saratoga Oaks. This is her third start off a long layoff, and she’d also be formidable if this race was moved to the main track; #2 BRAMBLE BAY: Is a very consistent sort that seems to run the same race every time out. Her lone clunker over the past two years came in a dirt sprint at Monmouth, and this is the type of race that plays to her strengths.

R4

Invaluable
Timely Tradition
Shasta Star

#3 INVALUABLE: Has been competitive against far better horses and takes a big drop in class for an aggressive ownership group. She’s hit the board nine times in 12 starts, and anything close to the form she showed downstate would make her a handful; #5 TIMELY TRADITION: Gets one more shot due to her proven affinity for this track. She’s another one dropping in class, and some of her best efforts have come here. If she’s at her best, she could provide some value; #7 SHASTA STAR: Hasn’t won in a while but did show improvement when second for a $50,000 tag in her first start for Robertino Diodoro. She drops back down the ladder here, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace.

R5

Cool Quest
Digital Future
Kawhi Me a River

#8 COOL QUEST: Tries turf for the first time, and there are plenty of indications that say he’ll love it. He’s turned in several strong workouts over the training track’s turf course, and Brian Lynch is incredibly astute in knowing when to go from dirt to turf with young horses; #1 DIGITAL FUTURE: Will likely be a pretty heavy favorite and makes sense after back-to-back seconds downstate. The blinkers go on, and he’s got enough early speed to where he shouldn’t be shuffled back along the rail; #5 KAWHI ME A RIVER: Comes in off of a long layoff and tries turf for the first time, but he’s bred to like it. He’s a son of Kantharos with several solid turf drills, and the 329 turf Tomlinson figure hints that he’ll have a chance if he’s ready to run off of the freshening.

R6

Waterville
Oak Loves a Fight
Cupere

#8 WATERVILLE: Exits one of the best 2-year-old maiden races on turf we’ve seen this summer. The top two runners may well show up in stakes races soon, and this one had a pretty adventurous trip. This seems like a softer spot, and I think she steps forward in a big way; #6 OAK LOVES A FIGHT: Rallied from last to finish third behind Derrynane, a nice horse that took some money in a stakes race last week. Two turns is a bit of an unknown, but if she takes to the route and gets a pace to run at, she wouldn’t be a shock; #5 CUPERE: Fetched $110,000 at auction last fall, and much of that could be because she’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Ivar. This barn is very patient, but it’s not like it can’t win with first-time starters, and she’ll have every chance to pick up a check if she runs to her bottom-side pedigree.

R7

Binkster
Gandy Dancing
Dark Money

#5 BINKSTER: Drops way down in class after finishing third in a classy optional claiming event earlier in the met. He’s hit the board in all five of his local starts, and these shallower waters could make it far easier for him to record his first win over this surface; #2 GANDY DANCING: Didn’t do much running in a turf experiment last time out, but goes back to the dirt and is another getting significant class relief. The recent bullet drill indicates he’s doing well, and he ran well over this main track twice a season ago; #8 DARK MONEY: Was very impressive two starts back, when he beat a similar-level field at this distance at Belmont. He’s since switched barns, but he has a win over this track and could benefit from an outside draw that may give Luis Saez plenty of options early on.

R8

Winter Pool
Hombrazo
Handy

#5 WINTER POOL: Just missed in the mud last time out and has steadily improved on speed figures in each of his outings. He’s shown he can go two turns without a problem, and a repeat of his last-out effort is probably good enough to win this; #4 HOMBRAZO: Had a weird trip last time out when fifth in the race my top pick exits. He was between horses throughout and didn’t have much running room when the field turned for home. He could certainly improve with a smoother trip, and I think it’s telling Irad Ortiz, Jr., got the mount again; #3 HANDY: Returns to the dirt after a failed turf try a few weeks ago and has more speed than he showed that afternoon. Jose Ortiz lands the mount, and I think he’ll be aggressive going into the clubhouse turn.

R9

Moretti (MTO)
Shamrocket
Ajourneytofreedom

#3 SHAMROCKET: Has been extremely consistent and has missed the board just twice in 17 lifetime starts. He was most recently third behind Cross Border in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, and he’s run well enough going 12 furlongs that I don’t think an extra panel will be an issue in the John’s Call; #4 AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM: Broke a long drought when he rallied to top a good optional claiming group last month. He did so while rallying into a pretty slow early pace, and he’s kept very good company since being claimed by Mike Maker last summer at Del Mar; #5 CONVICTION TRADE: Is the “other” Mike Maker trainee, and he had enough trouble at the start of his last race to where I’m drawing a line through it. He wants to be much closer to the pace, and his form over the winter was very good. If he’s back to that level, he could outrun his odds in a big way.

R10

Courageous Girl (MTO)
My Candy Girl
Kitten’s Romance

#11 MY CANDY GIRL: Draws a terrible post but has the early speed to be able to clear most of the field going into the first turn. She exits a pair of solid starter allowance races at Keeneland and Indiana Grand, and she was a good second at this level three starts ago at Aqueduct; #2 KITTEN’S ROMANCE: Is incredibly consistent and has run the same race pretty much every time since going to the Mark Hennig barn before her 2021 debut. Whether or not her Gulfstream Park form will transfer to Saratoga is anyone’s guess, but if it does, she’s certainly got the ability to win; #5 JAZZY LADY: Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out and was probably way too far back early on last time out. She has a history of finding trouble, and that’s not ideal, but she fits on speed figures and cannot be ignored in a wide-open Wednesday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $981.90

My “Champagne and J.D.” co-host, J.D. Fox, is almost as passionate about Woodbine as I am about Saratoga, and Sunday’s card up there is a big one. It’s a 13-race program headlined by the Queen’s Plate, which is the first leg of the Canadian horse racing Triple Crown.

In celebration of the occasion, we welcomed four-time Sovereign Award-winning writer Jennifer Morrison to our newest show. We discussed this year’s Queen’s Plate and offered a trio of late Pick Five tickets. Multi-race exotics up there can be played in 20-cent increments, which provides room for coverage in wide-open races without forcing horseplayers to break the bank. 

You can watch the episode on our YouTube channel. While you’re there, hit the “subscribe” button so you don’t miss any of our weekly updates!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Triple Elvis was flat, Robin Sparkles tired, and my Pick Three and double plays went up in smoke. If there’s any consolation, it’s that the fifth-race surface switch cancelled my Pick Five and reduced losses to $21.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: It’s a fun card, and I’ll scatter my action across several races on the program. I’ll have $10 win wagers on #5 STROLLING in the third and #1 RHYTHM SECTION in the seventh. In addition, I’ll play $2 exactas in the fifth that key #6 SISTER’S GHOST and #7 THIEF OF HEARTS on top and use those two, #1 MISS PEPPINA, and #3 CAZILDA FORTYTALES in the second spot.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Strolling, Race 3
Longshot: Thief of Hearts, Race 5

R1

Goddess of Fire
Time for Cupid
Saffron Moon

#6 GODDESS OF FIRE: Gets a tepid nod in the Sunday lid-lifter, a 2-year-old maiden race short on quantity but loaded with potential. This Todd Pletcher trainee is out of a stakes-winning sprinter, one that’s also thrown multiple Grade 1 winner Mind Control, and she’s been working well of late for the recently-enshrined Hall of Fame trainer; #3 TIME FOR CUPID: Was taken down in a hard-to-fathom disqualification at Lone Star Park, one where she was clear by nearly five lengths under the wire. That experience may help her, and Steve Asmussen clearly thinks highly of her if he’s shipped her up from Texas; #2 SAFFRON MOON: Is one of two first-time starters trained by Chad Brown, and I prefer this one to #4 DOVER DREAMS. This daughter of Malibu Moon sports an exceptional bottom-side pedigree, including second dam and Grade 1 winner Vacare (who herself is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Captivating Moon).

R2

Penny Saver (MTO)
Miss You Ella
Diamond Hands

#5 MISS YOU ELLA: Debuts going long on the lawn for Chad Brown and is bred to be any kind. This daughter of Declaration of War boasts a very strong female family, including third dam Hollywood Wildcat, who won an Eclipse Award and threw Breeders’ Cup Mile winner War Chant; #9 DIAMOND HANDS: Hammered for $425,000 at auction earlier this year and is out of a mare that won multiple stakes races at longer turf routes. She’s one of two in here for Christophe Clement, and the presence of Javier Castellano is noteworthy, as he doesn’t ride much for this outfit; #1 HIGHLY DEVAUXTED: Has some sharp works on the tab from her time at Keeneland and is out of a mare by Mizzen Mast, who’s a very strong turf influence. Additionally, if owner/trainer and husband/wife David Ingordo and Cherie DeVaux are naming a horse in this fashion, chances are it has some talent.

R3

Strolling
Eagle Pass
Storm Advisory

#5 STROLLING: Topped a similar-quality field here last month and merits plenty of respect running back at this level. He’s very popular at the claim box, and for good reason, as he’s won 10 of 35 career starts and two of his last three outings; #1 EAGLE PASS: Comes in off a bit of a freshening and won by daylight two and three back downstate. John Toscano doesn’t claim tons of horses, but he’s very astute and has a track record of success with new acquisitions; #3 STORM ADVISORY: Boasts a fitting name given the weather forecast for much of the northeast (stay safe, everyone!), and goes first off the claim for Dominick Schettino. He’s won twice this season when entered for a $16,000 tag, so a $20,000 claimer shouldn’t be too far outside his wheelhouse.

R4

Mia Bea Star (MTO)
What a Trick
Jades Gelly

#7 WHAT A TRICK: Makes her debut on this circuit after finishing third in a listed stakes race at Pimlico a few weeks ago. She’s shown an abundance of early speed, attracts top turf rider Jose Lezcano, and sure looks like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #2 JADES GELLY: Was declared a non-starter earlier in the meet, but she actually ran a bang-up race that day and was beaten less than three lengths despite a terrible beginning. Her two-back victory was sharp, and she certainly stands a big chance provided she gets a clean start; #8 LILLY SIMONE: Earned the diploma two back and just missed at this level and route last time out. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but she’d benefit from someone going with my top selection early, and if such a scenario materializes, the race shape will play right into her hands.

R5

Thief of Hearts
Sister’s Ghost
Cazilda Fortytales

#7 THIEF OF HEARTS: Ran into a very well-meant Brad Cox trainee in a starter allowance event several weeks ago. She drops back in for a claiming tag here, and a repeat of her impressive two-back effort at Churchill Downs would put her right there at a square price; #6 SISTER’S GHOST: Has a resume that looks far more impressive if you toss the races run over turf and synthetic courses. Her dirt races from earlier this year at Indiana Grand were solid, and I think she’s back to her preferred surface in this spot; #3 CAZILDA FORTYTALES: Looks like the main early speed in this heat and was a close-up second at this level in her first start for new trainer Orlando Noda. Manuel Franco rides back, and the cutback from seven panels to six could be a plus.

R6

Shanghai Shamrock
Lady Milagro
Landslid

#3 SHANGHAI SHAMROCK: Has had some tough trips against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. It’s possible she’s a horse that seeks out trouble, but she’s shown potential in the mornings and may prove tough to deny with a clean start; #4 LADY MILAGRO: May not have appreciated the muddy going in her debut earlier this summer. The recent half-mile drill downstate jumps off the page, and it may show that she’s sitting on a significant improvement in her second start; #7 LANDSLID: Has run into talented 2-year-olds such as Kaufymaker and Happy Soul, and there are no such monsters in this spot. She may need to improve in order to contend, but the shallower waters should be much appreciated, and the cushy outside draw doesn’t hurt, either.

R7

Angkor (MTO)
Rhythm Section
Exult

#1 RHYTHM SECTION: Looks like the main speed in this 11-furlong race that will take place on the inner turf course. Lone speed is dangerous in any event on the inner, and he’s bred to want every bit of this distance. If he gets comfortable up front going into the stretch for the first time, look out; #6 EXULT: Has shown himself to be a consistent sort that runs pretty much the same race every time out. This is his first try at a three-turn distance, but he’s bred to handle it and has shown a very strong turn of foot in several starts against starter allowance foes; #5 BOX N SCORE: Came up a neck short when rallying from last in a similar event downstate back in June. The horse that won, Shamrocket, is a pretty good one, and it also helps that this one was a good third in a start at this distance at Aqueduct back in November.

R8

Him She Kisses (MTO)
Ahead of Plan
Kasim

#3 AHEAD OF PLAN: Hasn’t won since October of last year, but he did take a big step forward on the drop in class last time out. He was second beaten less than a length last time out. That day’s winner has since come back to win again, and it helps that he boasts a win at this route; #1 KASIM: Didn’t do much running last time out, but that was in an off-the-turf race and he’s clearly better on turf than on dirt. He’s a stakes-placed turf sprinter making his first start for Danny Gargan, who has achieved great success with runners first off the claim; #4 TOMATO BILL: Showed an affinity for the lawn with a win at Lone Star in May. He returns to the turf after finishing fourth in an off-the-turf race last month, and if he returns to the form he displayed two starts ago, he’ll have every chance in what seems like a wide-open turf sprint.

R9

Horologist
Gold Spirit
Dunbar Road

#2 HOROLOGIST: Did everything but win in the Grade 3 Shuvee, where she set a legitimate pace and just couldn’t hold off Royal Flag. She comes back at the same route in the Summer Colony, and she should be able to use her tactical speed to sit a great trip once again; #6 GOLD SPIRIT: Had every right to need her last-out effort, when she tired a bit to run fourth in the Shuvee. That was her American debut and her first start since June. She has every right to take a step forward here in her second start off the bench, and her two recent works here look pretty solid; #3 DUNBAR ROAD: May not be the same horse she was in 2019 and 2020, when she won the Grade 1 Alabama and Grade 2 Delaware Handicap (among other races). However, it’s not like she needs to take an impossible leap forward to contend here. If my top two selections make one another work early on, this one stands to benefit.

R10

Rudy Rod (MTO)
Tallis
Voter Protection

#5 TALLIS: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. His dam, Isabella Sings, was a graded stakes winner on the lawn, and Uncle Mo has shown he can sire a turfer. Between the pedigree and the drop in for a $40,000 tag, I think there’s plenty to like in the Sunday finale; #8 VOTER PROTECTION: Hasn’t run since January and has been working at Monmouth for Chad Brown. These two items are red flags, but this is his first start in for a tag and his first try as a gelding. He may not need to move forward much to best this group; #2 EMPIRE ATTRACTION: Drew a wide post last time out and wasn’t able to save any ground. He gets a far friendlier draw here, and if his last start is any indication, he should be on or near the lead going into the first turn.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,002.90

When a song has a lyric about Saratoga, I automatically perk up, and this is the case whenever “You’re So Vain,” by Carly Simon, plays at my local grocery store as part of the music mix. It’s a classic song, but the more I listen to it, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion.

If Warren Beatty, the only publicly-named subject of the song, is so vain he thinks the song is about him, he’s probably a jerk, and I’ll happily concede that point. However, since the song IS about him, isn’t he also correct? Carly Simon may have laughed all the way to the bank nearly 50 years ago, but Warren Beatty has probably had the song playing on a loop in his man cave, so who really won here?

If you liked that take, stay tuned for my “Taylor Swift is an evil genius” theory, coming soon to a bankroll section near you!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Inevtabl Conection ran his heart out at a price in his debut, but he settled for second behind the second-race favorite I was trying to beat. I dropped $27.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the Grand Slam, which starts in the sixth and ends with a Wesley Ward-trained single in the ninth (the Skidmore). My $1 ticket reads as follows: 2,4,6 with 3,6 with 5,6,9 with 3. I think #3 KAUFYMAKER is going to be very, very difficult to beat in the Friday feature, and that the Grand Slam provides ways to extract some value.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Kaufymaker, Race 9
Longshot: Mister Luigi, Race 8

R1

Hilliard
Fingal
Mr. Briggs (MTO)

#2 HILLIARD: Makes his first start for Mike Maker in the Friday opener, and I think he’ll respond favorably to the trainer switch. I also believe the likely race shape will work in his favor, and that leading rider Luis Saez will have him moving in the right direction when the field turns for home; #3 FINGAL: Jogged to an easy score in an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet and is slated to get back on the lawn here. His turf races have been fine, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip beneath highly-respected turf pilot Jose Lezcano; #4 CITY MAGIC: Is the “other” Mike Maker trainee and has shown plenty of early speed in the past. He should be on or near the lead early in this event, and at a minimum, that should keep the pace honest for his stablemate.

R2

Empire Lily
Makin My Move
Bells On Her Toes

#4 EMPIRE LILY: Debuts for Jorge Abreu, who can get a first-time starter ready to run as well as any trainer on the circuit. This filly’s dam was a multiple stakes winner who placed in a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old, and she boasts several strong four-furlong drills ahead of her unveiling; #6 MAKIN MY MOVE: Is another with an exceptional work tab, and she may go off favored in this competitive event for state-bred 2-year-old fillies. Her female family includes the dam of multiple graded stakes winner and sire Fed Biz, and she herself is kin to a strong turf stakes winner; #7 BELLS ON HER TOES: Debuts for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. However, this is also an outfit that wins races in bunches when it gets hot, and if the past week is any indication, everything Charlton Baker sends out will be worth a second look for at least the next few days.

R3

Market Alert (MTO)
Scocciatore
Three Outlaws

#5 SCOCCIATORE: Wanted no part of a two-turn mile last time out and cuts back to a sprint for this event. His two-back win going seven furlongs downstate was quite good, and he has enough speed to be prominent from the jump in a pretty wide-open event; #2 THREE OUTLAWS: Isn’t at his best over softer ground, so the yielding going wasn’t what his connections wanted to see last month. If the weather cooperates and he gets a firmer turf course, I think we’ll see a step forward; #6 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Was third in a classy mile event last month and cuts back to a sprint distance. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he figures to be pretty far back early, and I’m not sure how much pace will materialize up front going into the turn.

R4

Roman entry
Clemenza
My Cousin Rich

ROMAN ENTRY: Merits respect in this maiden claiming event. I prefer #1 ABDAN, who cuts back to a sprint after tiring badly going two turns, but #1A RECIDIVIST has some form going short and makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Kelly Breen; #6 CLEMENZA: Makes his first start off the geld in this spot and has shown some early zip in starts at Monmouth at Aqueduct. Those are far different surfaces than Saratoga’s, to be sure, but this race is remarkably light on early zip and he could make a pretty easy lead; #3 MY COUSIN RICH: Drops in for a tag and hasn’t run a bad race going short on the dirt to this point. Despite the fact that his pedigree says he wants turf, he may have simply been a dirt horse all along, and he may not need to improve much to be a player here.

R5

Achilles Heel
Kingdom On Paws
Makart

#8 ACHILLES HEEL: Took a big step forward in his turf debut, when he rallied to be beaten just a neck in a paceless race. He has since been switched to the barn of Brad Cox, and further improvement in his third lifetime outing would make him tough to beat; #9 KINGDOM ON PAWS: Outran his odds when fourth at 36-1 last time out and gets a huge jockey switch to Joel Rosario. He’s bred to be a strong turf horse, and I think there’s a chance he’s getting to do what he wants to do; #6 MAKART: Didn’t do much running in his debut earlier this month, but his pedigree says he’ll like the turf and Mike Maker’s first-time starters aren’t always fully-cranked. Sire Klimt has had a few foals show talent on the grass to this point, and he may have learned something in his unveiling a few weeks ago.

R6

Singita Dreams (MTO)
Flighty Lady
Sister Otoole

#2 FLIGHTY LADY: Won her stateside debut in April before getting stuck behind a very slow pace in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico. This is a significantly softer spot, she’ll be receiving Lasix here, and this Group 3-placed filly has shown she can get a distance like this one; #6 SISTER OTOOLE: Topped allowance foes going a mile and a quarter last month, so this is another one for whom the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I think she’s got a bit more speed than she showed last time out, when she stalked from afar through a swift opening half-mile; #9 ENJOYITWHILEWECAT: Has won once in 15 starts since the beginning of 2020, but she’s had a history of strange trips and was a late-running fourth in the Grade 3 Modesty at Arlington. That came at this distance, and she moves up if an unexpected pace battle materializes going into the first turn.

R7

Lokoya Road
Road to Success
Gimme Some Mo

#3 LOKOYA ROAD: Is a tepid top pick in a puzzling $25,000 claimer. He was claimed out of his last effort by Juan Vazquez, who hits at a 20% clip with new acquisitions, and his lone two-turn dirt race to date was far from a bad effort, as he earned the second-best Beyer Speed Figure of his career in that spot; #1 ROAD TO SUCCESS: Earned the diploma last time out at Belmont and tries winners for the first time. This is a tough spot for the level, and the rail draw can be tricky, but he’s making his first start for Rob Atras, who has enjoyed a tremendous meet to this point; #6 GIMME SOME MO: Is certainly better than his last-out effort, when he showed speed and tired badly going long over a yielding turf course. He’s got plenty of early zip, Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Todd Pletcher, and this is the lowest claiming race he’s ever run for.

R8

Mister Luigi
Repo Rocks
Critical Threat

#6 MISTER LUIGI: Exits the Grade 2 Amsterdam, which was won by runaway winner Jackie’s Warrior. However, while this one ran fifth of six that day, he was beaten only about three lengths by runner-up Drain the Clock. This is a significantly weaker spot, and on speed figures, this Ghostzapper colt certainly fits; #5 REPO ROCKS: Was a bit one-paced when third against similar very early in this stand. He’s since been gelded, and that may help him focus in this spot, where he’ll need a clean trip in order to find the winner’s circle; #9 CRITICAL THREAT: Won first time out at Keeneland back in October but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since then. However, Brendan Walsh does great work with horses coming off of long breaks, the Ellis Park works look very fast, and the first-time gelding and first-time Lasix news items cannot be ignored.

R9

Kaufymaker
Pure Panic
Barone Cesco

#3 KAUFYMAKER: Was highly-regarded enough to take money in the Group 2 Coventry at Royal Ascot, where she split the 17-horse field in eighth and was beaten just four lengths. She showed plenty of potential in her debut win at Keeneland, and the most recent turf work is a huge one; #8 PURE PANIC: Rallied to top fellow maidens in his debut at Ellis Park last month. That day’s runner-up was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and he’s since come back to win, which certainly seems to flatter this one ahead of the Skidmore; #1 BARONE CESCO: Led a field of maidens every step of the way earlier this month and tries winners for the first time in stakes company. I’m not sure he’s fast enough to break on top again, but the inside draw is a plus given his early zip and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes early and hangs on for a share.

R10

Gabby Squared
Sweet Mission
Exotic Cat

#3 GABBY SQUARED: Sure seems like she’s in a “now or never” situation in the Friday finale. She didn’t step forward much in her first try for a tag, but her two best races have come going two turns, and I think she’ll enjoy a return to that configuration here; #9 SWEET MISSION: Was one-paced when fourth against similar last time out, but she was claimed out of that race by Mark Hennig, who doesn’t reach in to take many runners. She finished just a head behind my top pick last time out, and she’ll likely be a far bigger price than that one; #4 EXOTIC CAT: Is a huge price but merits a look given a few races she’s come out of and her pedigree. She’s bred to want to go two turns, and she’ll do that for the first time in this spot. A little improvement may give her a shot to hit the board at a large number.