Andrew Champagne

Andrew’s Play of the Day: 1/2/20

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

RECORD: 1-0

For the first time since I joined it in 2013, I won my fantasy football league. With the trophy came a pretty nice chunk of change, and I wound up buying a new piece of furniture for my living room. Christened as “the couch Saquon Barkley built,” it should be arriving at my Northern California residence next weekend.

That I’m truly excited about all of this scares the bejesus out of me. Nobody ever warns you about the true perils of getting old. It’s not the physical infirmities or the mind tending to wander just a bit more. It’s feeling giddy over buying things in such a way that the 21-year-old version of yourself would scream bloody murder if he/she suddenly materialized.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULT: As a Michigan fan, it sickened me to bet against the Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl. However, Alabama proved to be too much and the Crimson Tide easily covered as 8.5-point favorites, which means I got off to a good start.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll stick with college football and focus on the Birmingham Bowl. Cincinnati’s only problem this year was an inability to beat Memphis, a good team that put up a fight against Penn State earlier this bowl season. Meanwhile, Boston College fired its coach after a 6-6 season, one where the Eagles went 3-5 in the team’s last eight games. I think Cincinnati wins comfortably, and I’ll take the Bearcats giving 7.5 points.

Andrew’s Play of the Day: 1/1/20

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

RECORD: 0-0

In 2019, I decided to try my hand at picking four NFL games every week on Twitter. I missed a few weekends for various reasons (some good, some bad), but ultimately I wound up 33-23 on the season for a success rate just shy of 59%. That doesn’t sound earth-shattering to some, but it’s enough for a flat-bet profit if you played all of my picks.

With that in mind, and also with the understanding that writers need to write, I’m debuting a new daily segment on my website. It’s modeled after Mighty Quinn’s long-running blurb in the New York Daily News, where he’d wax poetic on something and offer a sports play of the day. I’ll be tracking my results as I go, and hopefully I can keep the success of the NFL season going for a long, long time.

As always, reader input is welcome and appreciated. Tweet me at @AndrewChampagne or get in touch by utilizing the “contact” function on the site. I see everything that comes in, and I respond to most of it.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’m a Michigan fan, and I’m fully expecting the Wolverines to get rolled by Alabama in today’s Citrus Bowl. They simply don’t match up, and I’m gobsmacked that the point spread is single-digits. Alabama is an 8.5-point favorite, and I’m taking the Crimson Tide to cover.

50 Wishes for Horse Racing in 2020

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

The last time I wrote something, the finished product became the most-read piece on AndrewChampagne.com. It was a 50-point plan designed to improve horse racing, and while several of the ideas had been ruminating in my brain for years, the drive to write it came from…well, from showing someone that if you accuse me of not having ideas or a drive to get things done, I’m going to take you to school.

I wrote that article in an hour, and honestly, it’s a miracle my keyboard didn’t melt from how fast my fingers moved. When I saw the responses, I was floored. For as much bluster as I appear to have on social media sometimes, I’m quite a different person once the “wannabe pro wrestling manager” shtick goes away. Seeing so many people identify with certain points I made (even when they didn’t agree with everything I wrote) was genuinely powerful, and, to be blunt, it reminded me that I can still write. To everyone who gave that a read and identified with some of it, thank you.

With the end of 2019 upon us, I see fit to offer up wishes for horse racing in the year 2020 and beyond. Since it worked so well last time, I’ll stick to a 50-item list. Some of these may sound a bit familiar if you read my previous piece, but this is meant as more of an idealistic/humorous piece rather than a memo outlining policy initiatives to be undertaken by the holder of a job I’ll never get.

Got ideas of your own, or thoughts on my list? Tweet me or shoot me an email via this site’s “contact” function. As I will make clear every time I do this, I see everything that comes through, and I respond to most of it.

With that in mind, here we go with a list of 50 wishes for the new year!

1) Friends of mine/all-around good guys Joe Nevills and Ernie Munick get carte blanche to go as long as they want in acceptance speeches at the Eclipse Awards later this month.

2) The place for true storytelling within the sport widens. The best pieces in racing aren’t bought and paid for, nor are they blasted out in ads that fans won’t click on. They’re written, edited, and broadcast with heart, which isn’t visible in a profit/loss sheet but is the most valuable thing in the entire industry.

3) Accusations of a certain set of brothers fixing races while riding at high-profile tracks stop immediately.

4) Failing the previous wish being granted, those who accuse these brothers of improper activities will stop betting on races where they insist these improper activities are being conducted, rather than pumping money through the windows and enabling whatever alleged activities they’re accusing the riders of to continue.

5) Team Runhappy makes its own racetrack dedicated to him and spends all of its sponsorship money there, as opposed to permeating track feeds to where live video of the races becomes borderline unwatchable at times.

6) The Donn Handicap’s 2021 return is announced.

7) The downhill turf course at Santa Anita reopens.

8) The phrase “we’ll train up to” is uttered 50% less by connections that think a top-notch horse running third in a graded stakes race is a crisis that merits a six-month vacation.

9) The “breeze” portions of 2-year-old sales are cancelled due to horsemen refusing to participate.

10) Instead of changing tracks, whip rules, or medication schedules, we breed sounder, sturdier, stamina-oriented thoroughbreds that can withstand longer campaigns, run more frequently, and energize fans at their home tracks.

11) The word “brilliance” is banned from all racing and breeding circles, effective immediately.

12) Everyone goes to at least one new-to-them track during the upcoming calendar year.

13) Keeneland rolls out the red carpet (and turns on the heat!) if I make a spring trip I’m mulling.

14) Those familiar with Keeneland inundate me with recommendations of things to do in that neck of the woods.

15) Racing gets a new high-quality video game. “Champion Jockey,” the last title to hit major consoles, is still playable…but it came out in 2011 for prior-generation machines. Koei/Tecmo, get on this!

16) When the game gets produced, I get the master list of all the cheat codes.

17) King Elliot, my 2-year-old prodigy in “Off and Pacing,” realizes his lofty potential.

18) Elliot, my 8-year-old cat/partner in crime, stops jumping in my lap when I’m trying to handicap a race.

19) The Pink Sheet continues to be enjoyed by all who buy it outside Saratoga’s gates.

20) The handicapper on the far right of the paper’s pick box retains his title for what would be a fifth Pink Sheet championship in the last seven years.

21) I somehow learn how to handicap steeplechase races.

22) John Shapazian of The Saratoga Special slows down enough to give the rest of us a chance to catch him for the all-media title.

23) Assuming I visit Saratoga this summer, I get to patronize Walt and Whitman Brewing, which pays homage to The Saratogian (the building’s prior tenant) by having editions of the paper and The Pink Sheet on its walls.

24) Jokes about my picks literally being in the toilet (since Pink Sheets are on the bathroom walls, too) are kept to a minimum.

25) This year’s Triple Crown races go off without a hitch, with horses running clean races and ideally not dumping riders out of the gate.

26) Racing’s big events are marketed smartly, with materials aimed at people who will actually wager on the races.

27) Artifacts at major racetracks are not obstructed, at all, for any reason.

28) Those with ideas to improve the sport get an environment in which to debate freely, constructively, and with a shared interest in improving the game.

29) Trolls with no ideas who don’t have the guts to put their faces and names on what they post lose every photo finish for the rest of time.

30) The Vosburgh gets its Grade 1 status restored.

31) Every graded stakes race restricted to 3-year-olds after October 1st gets knocked down at least one level. If you don’t beat older horses after that date, you don’t get to claim a Grade 1.

32) The Santa Anita Handicap gets moved to the last weekend in April or Memorial Day, in order to preserve its importance.

33) Either way, the Santa Anita Handicap now starts a three-race series featuring the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (on Memorial Day or the Fourth of July) and the Pacific Classic (which remains in August).

34) When the term “handicap” is used to describe a race, it’s accurate. The days of differences between top and bottom weights being five pounds are done.

35) Tracks with access to casinos and sports books utilize these platforms to get gamblers to put money through the racing windows.

36) A solution to late odds changes gets worked out and implemented immediately.

37) If this means widespread exchange wagering with fixed odds, find a way to roll it out in such a fashion that tracks don’t go broke.

38) Short-term sacrifices for long-term gain are viewed as necessary rather than burdensome.

39) The Breeders’ Cup Derby is always viewed as the worst idea in the history of horse racing.

40) Plans are announced that will bring the Breeders’ Cup back to New York. I understand there are political barriers in place, but if I’m wishing, I’m wishing big.

41) The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, Filly and Mare Sprint, and Juvenile Turf Sprint are dissolved, and their purses are re-allocated to races that would benefit from runners in those races going elsewhere.

42) Bettors get protected.

43) In that vein, all horses that break through starting gates prior to a race become immediate scratches.

44) Additionally, New York’s “purse money only” rule (which I’ve written about several times) gets kicked to the curb. If this means no more entries until a better rule is written, so be it.

45) If a top official in racing can’t explain to a novice within 20 seconds why things are what they are in certain parts of the sport, the rule or standard in question gets rewritten at one’s earliest possible convenience.

46) On-track concession prices are brought down to Earth, especially for track-goers who bet. We’ll start with people who bet $50 on a card getting a 25% discount across the board and go up from there.

47) Every Twitter fight within the horse racing community gets a poll popping up after its conclusion asking who won. Winners advance to a battle royal held at the Beemie Awards after-party.

48) More people participate in Operation Gift Horse. 2019 was my first year, and it was an absolute pleasure to take part.

49) Less people participate in behavior that reflects poorly on the sport to novice fans. Also, the less we’re in bed with organizations that promote misogyny, the better.

50) We’ll end with my personal favorite: All serious horseplayers get one “STOP THE RACE!” button to use at a single solitary point in their lifetimes. Use it however you want, but once you do, it’s gone for good.

A 50-Point Plan for Horse Racing’s Future

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

There are certain things one should not do. In addition to tugging on Superman’s cape, spitting into the wind, and pulling the mask off the Lone Ranger, you should never, ever challenge me publicly to put way too much thought into something.

As a preface: Bloodstock agent Bradley Weisbord publicly asserted his desire for racing to associate itself more with Barstool Sports, a controversial entity that has, in my opinion, been rightfully skewered by much of the racing community for its attitudes and actions towards women. I voiced my opinion in response to a comment by photographer Susie Raisher, and this is how Bradley reacted.

I’ve never met Bradley Weisbord in person. I’m not going to make any assertions about his motives or any of his thoughts or actions. This column is strictly business.

You see, I’ve been challenged, and I am going to rise to meet it. Here’s how, as Racing Czar, I would improve horse racing from the top down, in 50 easy steps.

1) Promote from within to account for many resignations across racing that would undoubtedly take place following the announcement of my appointment.

2) Any remaining spots would be filled by passionate young men and women who want to make a difference in the game. Their jobs will be to come up with innovative ideas and how to implement them for the sport’s long-term survival.

3) No idea is a bad idea, except for the Breeders’ Cup Derby, which is the worst idea in the history of the sport.

4) If we’re still short on people, we’re cloning Tom Durkin like Dolly the Sheep as many times as needed.

5) The horse comes first. We’re breeding to race, not racing to breed, and as such, breeders need to get with the program.

6) All, ahem, “breeze” portions of 2-year-old sales are eliminated. You want to gallop horses on the track? That’s fine. The days of an ability to “breeze” an eighth of a mile as a 2-year-old being more important, in some circles, than that horse going nine or 10 furlongs as a 4-year-old or 5-year-old are over.

7) Racing needs its stars to run for as long as possible. To promote this, any male horse retired to breed as a 4-year-old may only be bred to 50 mares. If stallion owners want to jack up stud fees to compensate for the restriction, that’s fine. We’ll let the market determine if it works.

8) We’re commissioning a long-term study on race-day medications by an impartial, unbiased group of equine scientists and medical professionals.

9) Whatever that study says, we’re going with, and all jurisdictions will follow the same rules.

10) If you’re a horseman and your horse needs Lasix or another medication to treat a legitimate issue, your horse goes on a list maintained by the neutral party and gets re-evaluated every three months.

11) If your horse needs Lasix or another medication because you think it’s a performance-enhancer, you can go train somewhere else.

12) Our medication policies have punishments with teeth.

13) Violations get grouped into “minor” and “major” infractions. Minor infractions (think overages by a few picograms or nanograms) are met by increasing fines, with the fifth violation and those beyond that being met with 30-day suspensions.

14) Major infractions are met by suspensions of 60 days, six months, and one year, followed by a lifetime ban for the fourth.

15) A national board of vets and horsemen get to decide which substances fit into which categories, and the standards apply to all tracks as part of the NTRA’s safety accreditation program.

16) The safety accreditation program also contains regulations pertaining to fouls and disqualifications, which will be drafted on the advice of jockeys, trainers, and stewards.

17) These regulations will apply across the board. The inquiry, “what is a foul that merits disqualification?,” is no longer a trick question. Every rider and steward at every track in the country now plays by and officiates the same rules, and bettors know for sure when a DQ could likely occur.

18) The same rules apply to all races regardless of status. We’re not making exceptions in Grade 1 events just because more eyes are on us.

19) If a track chooses not to comply with rules pertaining to overages and disqualifications, not only will it not earn safety accreditation, but it sacrifices graded status for all of its stakes races as well.

20) Optics matter.

21) Any trainer found to have directly sent a thoroughbred from a track to the slaughter pipeline gets booted from the game. No exceptions.

22) No organization whose stated goal is to end horse racing gets to help make decisions within the sport.

23) If organizations outlined in step 22 have strategies to hit racing hard, we hit back harder. The days of the sport being a punching bag for well-coordinated attack campaigns are done.

24) It is made clear horses on racetracks get far better care than cats and dogs at shelters run by one group that euthanizes thousands of them on a yearly basis.

25) It is also made clear that the head of a prominent organization striving for the extinction of horses had no problem profiting off of animals when he was putting the end products of them on pizzas sold at his restaurants.

26) We’re reopening the hill at Santa Anita.

27) We’re reopening Hialeah Park, by any means necessary.

28) We’re issuing moratoriums on the extension of meets at Saratoga and Del Mar. Boutique meets are boutique meets for a reason.

29) Tracks will work together to coordinate post times whenever it is feasible to do so. Instead of fighting each other for the same gambling dollars, we’re creating more opportunities for churn.

30) “Post time” means “post time.” Barring emergency situations (waiting for ambulances, technical/starting gate malfunctions, etc.), every effort must be made to run races at their listed times.

31) Penalties for post time violations will be mandatory donations to thoroughbred aftercare foundations. If you want to set up a day where you intentionally drag to set up donations for PR purposes, that’s just fine.

32) Fans that go to the track will receive vouchers at the gate. Grandstand admission is good for a $5 voucher. Clubhouse admission is good for a $10 voucher.

33) These vouchers are good for wagering only and cannot be cashed out. If a few first-time track-goers make money with their first bets, we’re convincing them to bet their winnings back, stay involved in the sport, and, most importantly to the future of the game, come back with their friends.

34) We’re optimizing the betting experience to make it easier for new players to understand what’s going on. If racing is marketed as the original fantasy sport, with a new draft taking place every 30 minutes, how much easier is that to understand than a set of past performances that, to a racing neophyte, may as well be Egyptian hieroglyphics?

35) We’re setting national standards for takeout and breakage. No track will institute rates of greater than 18% on win-place-show bets or 20% on exotics.

36) Tracks will be encouraged to find new wagers to try. Not all of them will work (hi, Horse Racing Roulette!), but some will (the low-takeout Stronach 5 is good, clean fun, for instance). We’re going to take chances, make mistakes, and get messy.

37) Transparency is key. The more people trust our product, the more they’ll trust betting on it.

38) Partnerships in owning horses are fun. Not knowing how much of each horse is owned by which stakeholder is grating. Those numbers get published.

39) Reasons for trainer changes get published (Runhappy’s page would have been positively fascinating).

40) Replays of each race run around the country are made available at the end of each racing day to all fans, without restrictions.

41) Equibase data is made available to any individuals who want to use it, for a small annual fee. This prevents a repeat of the Handycapper saga and allows passionate fans another way to explore the sport.

42) Corporations are not individuals.

43) We will market the sport with both respect for the customer and enthusiasm that, as of now, is usually only reserved for big days.

44) Those big days will market horses and the humans around them above all else. Music and fashion can play secondary roles, but all marketing materials will have at least one horse in them.

45) Horse emojis do not count as horses within those marketing materials.

46) If and when a horse breaks down, we will be honest, forthright, and not hold back details.

47) If there are problems with breakdowns, we will find solutions, not scapegoats.

48) We will effectively police ourselves so that government officials with lobbyists in their ears have as little reason as possible to attack the business.

49) We will foster environments where healthy debate, constructive criticism, and hearty competition are welcome and encouraged. Racing is, above all else, a pari-mutuel game where bettors compete with one another for money in the pools.

50) We will not foster environments where those who degrade certain parts of the population can spread their beliefs to others, nor ones where those opinions are valued more than those of people who have spent years in the business.

– – – – –

If anyone wants to discuss any of this with me, you’re welcome to do so. My Twitter DM’s are open, and the “contact” feature of my site sends messages straight to my email. I read everything that comes through, and I respond to an awful lot of it.

2019 BREEDERS’ CUP: Saturday Analysis and Selections

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

It’s Breeders’ Cup time, which means it may as well be Christmas morning for handicappers. Two days of full fields comprised of some of the fastest horses on the planet, many of which will win or run well at big prices, is pretty much all we can ask for as horseplayers, and I’m really excited to dive in.

I’ve done a lot of handicapping elsewhere for Friday’s card. I’m proud to dissect a lot of 2-year-old races for Oddschecker US, and I wrote up quick summaries of all five Breeders’ Cup races over there. Additionally, I did a few videos for The Daily Racing Form, where I offered Pick Five analysis and a look at my top pick in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

However, my analysis for each of the Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday is all below. In addition, there’s another race on the undercard I’m very interested in, and I’ll look at that race as well. As I said on Twitter, this is as much work as I’ll do all year long outside of Saratoga season, but I absolutely love it, and I’m grateful to have an audience that enjoys reading my stuff.

Enough talk; let’s get to it!

RACE #3: Grade 2 Twilight Derby

I’ll never understand why Santa Anita opted to run the Twilight Derby at 11:17 am local time, but alas, here we are. This race came up salty for the level given the restricted condition (it’s only for 3-year-olds), but I think the pace scenario sets up perfectly for one of these runners.

#9 KINGLY has a lot of early speed, and that’s not a trait shared by many other runners in this field. He was last seen in the Grade 2 City of Hope Mile, where he was beaten just a neck by older foes after setting a fast pace. He should not have to go nearly as quickly early on in here, and if he gets brave on the front end, I think he’ll be very tough to catch.

Kingly’s 5-1 on the morning line, and I think that’s an overlay. My hope is that he’ll dictate terms early and have plenty left late, and if he gets home, my day will get off to a flying start.

RACE #4: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

The first Breeders’ Cup race of the day is one that carries plenty of Eclipse Award ramifications. #1 COVFEFE could very well lock up Champion 3-Year-Old Filly honors with a win in this race, and she’s logical. Her efforts going seven furlongs have been incredibly sharp, and given her two victories ahead of this event, it can be argued she’s never been better.

However, the rail draw is certainly a concern. She has speed, but the rivals directly to her outside aren’t slow. If she doesn’t break perfectly, she could be in big trouble, and for that reason, she isn’t my top pick.

That distinction goes to #4 COME DANCING, the race’s likely second choice. She’s won four of her last six starts, and the two losses came to top-quality foes Marley’s Freedom and Midnight Bisou (neither of which shows up here). Unlike several of her foes, she does not need the lead in order to win. She could sit a picture-perfect trip beneath Javier Castellano, and I think she’ll have first run on the tiring pacesetters turning for home.

Underneath those two, #6 BELLAFINA and #9 SPICED PERFECTION both make sense. I’ll also throw in #5 LADY NINJA, who has won five of her last seven starts and would also benefit from a pace meltdown. She’ll be a price, and if you’re looking for a longshot to throw in, I think she’s the one to use.

RACE #5: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Much like the race before it, there’s a lot of early speed signed on here. It certainly seems like they’re going to go very, very quickly out of the gate, which should benefit those who do their best running late.

#10 EDDIE HASKELL fits the bill, and he’s my top pick. He loves this route of ground, and while he has a powerful late kick, he’s also got enough tactical speed to not be too far back. Joel Rosario should have plenty left late, and if he can save some ground from a difficult (but not impossible) post, he should be pretty formidable.

The other intriguing closer is #5 STUBBINS, who comes in off a win in the Grade 2 Woodford at Keeneland. He hits me as a 3-year-old hitting his best stride late in the year, and the presence of Flavien Prat is a plus. The faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be, and at his likely price, I absolutely have to use him.

On wider tickets, I’ll also use #6 STORMY LIBERAL, who won this race a season ago but hasn’t found the winner’s circle since. However, the rider switch to John Velazquez is noteworthy, and he’s another who does not need the lead in order to run well. In a race with tons of early zip, that’s valuable, and while he may be past his peak, it’s not like improvement isn’t out of the question.

RACE #6: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

I’d love to tell you that I can find a reason to go against #5 OMAHA BEACH, but I can’t do it. He had every excuse to run a clunker in his comeback race, and he instead outdueled Shancelot to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship. We know he can handle two turns, and judging by his recent bullet workout over this surface, he may be coming into this race better than he’s ever been.

I respect #2 IMPROBABLE and #4 MR. MONEY. However, Omaha Beach beat the former earlier this year, and the latter would definitely need to take a step up from a figure standpoint. With all of this in mind, I’ll happily single Omaha Beach in multi-race exotics and spread elsewhere.

RACE #7: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf

Unfortunately, this race took a hit when Magical didn’t ship in with the rest of the European contingent. After that defection, #2 SISTERCHARLIE towers over the field and seems to be in great position to record her seventh consecutive victory.

The question is, how do we make money when the favorite appears legitimate? I’m going to key her in exactas with several bigger prices. #1 IRIDESSA won a Group 1 at this distance earlier this year, #8 CASTLE LADY may have needed her run in the Grade 1 QE2 at Keeneland, and #12 FANNY LOGAN has won four in a row, gets Lasix for the first time, and is 5-for-5 at this distance.

If Sistercharlie wins, I’ll likely still make a few bucks. However, if she runs second to one of the horses I’ve used, I stand to connect on a nice score.

RACE #8: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint

If #4 MITOLE wins, he may very well have a case for Horse of the Year honors. A win would give him six victories in seven starts on the season, with four Grade 1 triumphs ranging in distances from six furlongs to a mile. He’s had a great year, and he merits respect, but while I’m using him, he’s not my top pick.

The only time Mitole locked up with #9 IMPERIAL HINT was in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. That day, Imperial Hint won by four lengths and set a new track record at Saratoga. Mitole bounced back with a win in the Grade 1 Forego, but Imperial Hint also added a Grade 1 win of his own in the Vosburgh.

I think these two are pretty equal, but Imperial Hint will likely be twice the price. With that in mind, give me that one and the potential for a bigger payoff.

If you’re looking for a longshot to use in the exotics, I’d recommend #7 WHITMORE, who ran very well in his comeback race at Keeneland. He stumbled at the start and was forced to race very wide, but he rallied to be beaten just a half-length. There’s plenty of early speed in here, and if he steps forward off of that performance, he could absolutely hit the board at a big price.

RACE #9: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile

Every year, the Mile seems like a true grass grab bag. This renewal is no exception, and despite the presence of #6 GOT STORMY and #11 UNI, a European runner may very well go favored.

That’s #9 CIRCUS MAXIMUS, a two-time Group 1 winner from the barn of Aidan O’Brien. His form is already top-notch, and he’s getting Lasix for the first time, which can’t be ignored. It’s not an easy race to handicap, and it’ll be worth seeing how he’s warming up prior to the race, but I think his best effort would make him tough to beat.

Got Stormy and Uni could both win, but there are red flags with both runners. The former hung badly in the Woodbine Mile without any apparent excuse, and the latter drew a poor post that could cause her to lose ground. Both could win, I suppose, but I think there’s more money to be made betting against them than betting on them.

In addition to Circus Maximus, I’ll also use #1 SUEDOIS, #2 LUCULLAN, and #13 HEY GAMAN. Suedois didn’t have a great trip when third in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland and has shown plenty of talent, while Lucullan is in career-best form and Hey Gaman gets the firm ground he prefers while also adding Lasix for the first time.

RACE #10: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Remember the Dirt Mile, where I said I wish I could find a reason to go against Omaha Beach? Substitute #4 MIDNIGHT BISOU, and you have my preview of the Distaff. Simply put, she looks head and shoulders above the rest in here, and she’s my best bet of the entire card.

I’m going to channel former TVG colleague Dave Weaver with my wagering strategy here, which involves an “ice cold” exacta. I’ll use Midnight Bisou on top of #6 WOW CAT, who may be rounding back into form in her fourth start of the season. Wow Cat was the best of the rest behind Midnight Bisou in the Grade 2 Beldame, and she was a fast-closing second in this race a season ago. If they go quickly early on, that will bode well for her chances to hit the board at a big price here.

RACE #11: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf

Here’s the big question, perhaps the biggest of Breeders’ Cup weekend: Can #9 BRICKS AND MORTAR get a mile and a half? If he can, he’ll likely win and sew up Horse of the Year honors with his fifth Grade 1 win of the year. If he can’t, my inclination is that one of two European runners will capitalize.

#5 ANTHONY VAN DYCK has been pointed to this race for a while, and for good reason. This year’s Epsom Derby winner was most recently third behind Magical in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, and if you draw a line through his two-back effort at Ascot over softer going, he hasn’t run a bad race all year. I think he’s matured, and that he’s the horse to beat given his proven ability to get this distance.

Meanwhile, #10 OLD PERSIAN came to North America and rolled to an easy win in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer at Woodbine. Most notably, he won the $6 million Sheema Classic in Dubai earlier this year, and his best race could absolutely be good enough to beat this group. Can he fire that shot if Bricks and Mortar gets the distance? That’s a good question.

RACE #12: Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic

I haven’t been shy about voicing my opinion of this race on Twitter, and I’ll do it again here. Simply put, this race just doesn’t excite me as much as it has in past years. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t make money; quite the opposite, actually, as I’m not sold on a few horses that may get action at the windows.

#10 VINO ROSSO was the victim of what I felt was a horrible DQ in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. I don’t think #11 CODE OF HONOR was ever getting by, and because of that, the DQ ensured the best horse didn’t win. Vino Rosso gets another crack at that one here, and he gets it going a route of ground he won at earlier this year. He’s worked well coming into this race, and he’s my reluctant top pick.

#8 MCKINZIE may go favored, and #6 ELATE and Code of Honor will take money as well. I could see any of these horses winning, but I’ll be leaning heavier on #5 YOSHIDA. I think there’s enough pace in here to set up for his late kick, and the presence of Hall of Famer Mike Smith is a big, big plus.