BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $945.10

We’re officially halfway through the 2019 Saratoga meet, as Wednesday’s program marked the 20th of 40 scheduled days. It’s always a shock when the halfway point hits, and it hits everyone differently. Given the short calendar length of the season, the meet goes by really quickly in some respects. In others, it’s a grind given the amount of races stuffed into the boutique meet.

We’ve got 20 more racing days (weather permitting, of course) to make a big score here. This happened last year, when we hit an $820 Pick Four in this section near the end of the meet, and I’ll be plugging away every day in hopes of a similar scenario unfolding. If you miss a day, check my website, AndrewChampagne.com, for picks, analysis, and bankroll plays.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Lead Guitar had every chance to get by Crack Shot in the third and couldn’t get by. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that playing to win and place cut our losses to just two dollars.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: This is another day where I’m treading pretty lightly. I simply don’t feel incredibly strongly about much on the Thursday card. I’ll focus my action on the ninth race, which houses my longshot of the day. That’s #5 BELGRANO, who I’ll key above and below #1A FINANCIAL SYSTEM, #2 HIERARCHY, and #3 WALKOFF in $2 exactas. I’ll also play Belgrano to win and place for $4 each.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Drawing Away entry, Race 3
LONGSHOT: Belgrano, Race 9

R1

Cuddle Kitten
Zena Rules
Stay Fond

#1 CUDDLE KITTEN: Has won two in a row since going to the Jorge Navarro barn, and before that had a solid winter/spring at Oaklawn Park. Toss the turf races, and you have a horse that’s won seven of 20 starts; #4 ZENA RULES: Was a close-up second last time out at Ellis Park and makes her local debut here. This barn is a smaller one, but it has already won here once this meet; #6 STAY FOND: Makes her first start since February, but hasn’t finished out of the money since last May. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and she’s a contender if she’s ready to run.

R2

My Roxy Girl
Bertranda
Moondance Joy

#2 MY ROXY GIRL: Was claimed by Danny Gargan last time out, and few on the circuit are better with new acquisitions. She should appreciate the drop in class, and she’s worked well ahead of this race; #7 BERTRANDA: Drops back down to what seems like the right level after three failed tries against better horses. She was a good second against similar in May at Belmont, and she should go early; #5 MOONDANCE JOY: Merits a look at a bit of a price. She’s won here before, and while this race is a step up in claiming price, the one she exits was very strong for that level.

R3

Drawing Away entry
Bad Boy
Jerome Avenue

DRAWING AWAY ENTRY: I prefer #1 RHODE ISLAND, who had a wide trip in his first start against winners. He drops back in for a tag, and a repeat of his two-back effort would make him tough against what seems like a subpar group; #3 BAD BOY: Responded to the class drop earlier this meet, when he rallied to top maiden claimers. The faster they go early, the better his chances would likely be; #2 JEROME AVENUE: Drops in for a tag and gets significant class relief off of his prior outings. His connections thought enough of him to try stakes company at Tampa, and his best race would put him right there.

R4

California Night
Potomac
Diodoro entry

#4 CALIFORNIA NIGHT: Tried stakes company last time out, and those waters were simply too deep. This seems like a much friendlier spot, and the last time he was in for this tag, he cruised to a wire-to-wire victory at Aqueduct; #2 POTOMAC: Cuts back to one turn and drops in class after flopping at 8/5 earlier in the meet. If he recaptures his early-season form going this shorter distance, he’s absolutely the one to beat; DIODORO ENTRY: I prefer #1A CONQUERER, who exits a fast race for the level at Churchill Downs. He’s won twice at this distance and would benefit from a speed duel.

R5

Dangerous Edge
Tiz the Law
Dream Bigger

#8 DANGEROUS EDGE: Fetched $150,000 at auction earlier this year and has worked well ahead of his unveiling. Early returns on sire Competitive Edge have been strong, and the outside draw is a plus; #3 TIZ THE LAW: Is bred to be a runner and has worked like a solid horse. He’s worth a long look, even though his trainer’s horses tend to need a race or two to get going; #7 DREAM BIGGER: Hammered for $205,000 at auction despite a pretty modest pedigree. John Velazquez doesn’t ride for Rudy Rodriguez very often, and it’s intriguing to see him aboard this runner (who has been working well here over the past few weeks).

R6

Brittas Bay
Erin More
Prosperity

#7 BRITTAS BAY: Ran well when beaten just a neck downstate. She topped the third-place finisher by three lengths that day, and she seems to get the benefit of a so-so field for the level; #8 ERIN MORE: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and has hinted at some potential in the mornings. She’s a half-sister to McErin, who won his debut and tried tough company at Royal Ascot early in his career; #2 PROSPERITY: Was a one-paced fifth in her debut, but this barn’s firsters are rarely fully-cranked. She gets a big rider switch to Joel Rosario and may take a big step forward at second asking.

R7

H Man
Cerretalto
Binkster

#6 H MAN: Faltered at 2/5 after being outsprinted early in his last start. He got a bit of a rest prior to this event, and at his best, he’s absolutely the one to beat in what seems more like a state-bred stakes race than an optional claimer; #8 CERRETALTO: Almost certainly needed the race earlier this meet, which doubled as his first outing since December. This barn is quietly enjoying a stellar season, and this one could improve second off the bench; #2 BINKSTER: Was second here earlier in the meet and may have run the most impressive race that day. He was close to a fast pace and wound up beaten less than a length; the question is, can he find a way to best my top pick (who beat him twice earlier this year)?

R8

Lucky Move
Held Accountable
Fetching

#6 LUCKY MOVE: Rallied to win at this route earlier in the meet and may have relished the two-turn trip. Joel Rosario rides back, and there should be plenty of early speed for her to rate behind; #5 HELD ACCOUNTABLE: Came off the bench to run third in the mud just a short time ago. She didn’t have a great start that day, and this barn is due to get off the duck sooner rather than later; #2 FETCHING: Has won two of three starts on turf and tries dirt for the first time here. If her turf form translates to dirt, she could absolutely rally for a big piece of it.

R9

Brown entry
Belgrano
Hierarchy

BROWN ENTRY: #1A FINANCIAL SYSTEM has a habit of finding trouble, but he’s done his best running around two turns and could relish a return to that route here. Additionally, #1 GROWTH ENGINE will be tough if this is rained off the turf; #5 BELGRANO: Has won two of his last four starts, including a last-out victory at Belmont against starter allowance foes. He could sit a perfect stalking trip, and he may be a generous price; #2 HIERARCHY: Cuts back in distance in his first start for Joe Sharp. His plodding style hints that he wants to go longer, but he’s hung a bit of late, so maybe the change will wake him up.

R10

Tricky Magician
Lucky Bet (MTO)
Baffin Bay

#9 TRICKY MAGICIAN: Drops down in class in his second start off the bench. He tried very tough company as a 2-year-old, and this two-turn route could be just what the doctor ordered; #6 BAFFIN BAY: Has been busy this year, with four wins in seven 2019 starts. He makes his first start for this barn here, and his best race would make him a major player; #10 DAKOTA’S DUDE: Got back in the winner’s circle after dropping in class last time out. He sat a great trip stalking a moderate pace that day, but a similar scenario could present itself again here.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $947.10

It may seem incredibly early for such an announcement, but here in the Bay Area, kids are getting ready to go back to school. The same can be said for teachers, one of whom (a third-grade teacher at the Oakland Unified School District) happens to be my girlfriend. She busts her butt for her kids, and I’m extremely proud of her.

She’s got an Amazon wish list located here. It contains a bunch of supplies that would help the kids she teaches on a daily basis. If you feel generous and want to help some third-graders out, take a look. If you buy something, I’ll owe you a favor. One caveat, though: If we can avoid the sort of favor Don Corleone called in after Sonny was gunned down on the causeway, that’d be great.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: My doubles were total busts, and we dropped $30.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll keep things simple, as my best bet of the day may be an OK price. That’s #3 LEAD GUITAR in the third race, and she’s the subject of a $10 win/place bet.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

– – – – –

BEST BET: Lead Guitar, Race 3
LONGSHOT: Evaluator, Race 9

R1

Wigwam Baby
Down Royal
Our Frosty

#1 WIGWAM BABY: Seems like a deserving favorite coming back to the steeplechase ranks after a prep at Parx. She was second in this race two summers ago, and a repeat of her two-back effort would make her tough; #3 DOWN ROYAL: Is a consistent sort over fences, and the flat-race prep is a complete throw-out. She generally runs the same race every time, although she does seem to enjoy picking up minor awards; #2 OUR FROSTY: Comes back to fences and would be a contender if she channeled some of her late-2018 and early-2019 form. Those efforts came against weaker groups, but it’s tough to completely ignore a 59-length romp.

R2

Bears Mafia
Legion Storm
Sobersick N Sorry

#1 BEARS MAFIA: Drops in for a tag and looms large against what seems like a weak group for the level. His turf try last time out is a toss, and Carmouche has ridden him well in the past; #7 LEGION STORM: Has picked up eight minor awards in 12 winless starts, but was an OK second at this level last time out. Blinkers come back on and he draws favorably towards the outside; #8 SOBERSICK N SORRY: Gets my pick in the “name of the day” category and could improve at second asking. He was a one-paced fourth last time out, but this barn’s runners usually need a race or two to get going.

R3

Lead Guitar
Qian B C
Alphastest

#3 LEAD GUITAR: Closed very well to be third in her debut, a race where the second-place finisher came back to win at next asking. She gets a huge rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., and should improve for a barn that may be heating up; #6 QIAN B C: Was a close-up third going seven furlongs at Belmont and cuts back in distance. He seems to have matured a bit, but I have to wonder if this trip is a bit shorter than he really wants to go; #5 ALPHASTEST: Seems like the main speed and was reeled in last time out when beaten just a half-length. This shorter distance could suit him, and he may be a bit of a price.

R4

Connectivity
Decorated Ace
Warm

#7 CONNECTIVITY: Takes a colossal drop to the claiming ranks after running in a pair of stakes races earlier this year. Even a repeat of her two-back effort, when she was second in an allowance at Keeneland, would make her a formidable foe; #6 DECORATED ACE: Has recorded all three of her wins going two turns on turf, including her last-out victory against slightly weaker competition. She makes her second start since being switched to the sharp Mike Dini outfit and could sit a nice trip; #4 WARM: Comes back to turf in her first start off the claim. She ran well on it three back at Tampa, won on dirt earlier this meet, and recently fired a bullet drill.

R5

Thea’s Theme
Lady Kaza
Critical Value

#2 THEA’S THEME: Hammered for $145,000 last summer and has worked like a promising horse. Jose Ortiz likely had options, but chose to ride this Jeremiah Englehart trainee; #7 LADY KAZA: Has been working steadily for Chad Brown and merits respect. This barn can win with first-time starters, and her second and third dam were both stakes-winners; #6 CRITICAL VALUE: Is the second Englehart trainee in the field, and her pedigree shows speed top and bottom. She appears to have worked with my top pick a bit, and it wouldn’t be shocking if this barn runs 1-2.

R6

Uncle Benny
Archidust
Elektronic

#1 UNCLE BENNY: Makes his 3-year-old debut more than nine months after a troubled-trip second at the Breeders’ Cup. Jason Servis can have a horse ready to run off a long break, and he’s likely matured in his time off; #7 ARCHIDUST: Has won two in a row ahead of this event, including a minor stakes race at Monmouth Park. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure that day and could still be improving; #2 ELEKTRONIC: Ran well at a price in the Grade 3 Quick Call, where he was a fast-closing second at 11-1. The faster they go early, the better his chances appear to be.

R7

Lost in Manhattan
Brush Country
Liam Lets Go

#7 LOST IN MANHATTAN: Drops in class for Danny Gargan, who has enjoyed a very strong meet to this point. He likely needed his last start, which was his first outing since December, and he’s got plenty of early zip; #5 BRUSH COUNTRY: Was second last time out and got claimed out of that race by a barn that doesn’t drop many slips in. The solid local race certainly helps, and he could sit a great stalking trip; #3 LIAM LETS GO: Comes north from Gulfstream Park, where he’s been running against allowance and optional claiming foes. He may find these waters a bit more shallow, and Luis Saez climbing aboard is a plus.

R8

Clench
Laser Loop
El Asesino

#3 CLENCH: Was second behind Shancelot last time out, and that one has since run a hole in the wind over this track. He likes running second or third, but he could be coming into his own in the latter half of his 3-year-old season; #4 LASER LOOP: Rolled home against much weaker earlier this meet and was claimed that day by Gary Contessa. Unlike many others in here, he comes in off of a victory, and he may be closing at a bit of a price; #8 EL ASESINO: Hasn’t won in nearly a year, but he was most recently second in a stronger heat and cuts back in distance. He’s got some flexibility in his running style and should get every chance from an outside post.

R9

Mr. Buff
Evaluator
Dynamax Prime

#2 MR. BUFF: Has won five of his last seven starts and seems to be in top form. If he gets an easy lead, he’ll be very tough, but longshot players may point to the presence of other early speed in this race; #5 EVALUATOR: Makes his 2019 debut for new trainer H. James Bond and could get a perfect setup. Javier Castellano riding is a positive sign, and he’s worked well several times ahead of this race; #4 DYNAMAX PRIME: Ran second to my top selection last time out at Belmont and is another that could benefit from a fast pace. However, while he’s won going two turns in the past, he may be at his best at one-turn routes of ground.

R10

Ghostly Beauty
Teletype
Sweet Gisel

#10 GHOSTLY BEAUTY: Will have to work out a trip from a tough post, but she seems like the one to beat. She just missed behind a horse that has since come back to beat winners, and the third-place finisher won earlier this meet as well; #3 TELETYPE: Was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez last time out and was second behind another next-out winner back in June. She’s been rested since that start and is a contender if she’s ready; #8 SWEET GISEL: Finally tries turf and has a pedigree saying she’ll love it. She’s by Street Boss and out of a Dixieland Band mare, and her 320 turf Tomlinson rating hints that she could take a step forward here for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas.