Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/13/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $602.50

In a day and age where horses run less and less for a variety of reasons, the sport needs high-profile stars that stick around for a while. In a perfect world, these stars would be easy for fans young, old, diehard, and casual to follow. In other words, racing needs more horses like Fourstardave, who was honored with the 2018 renewal of a Grade 1 race named after him this past weekend.

A number of fellow turf writers compared Fourstardave winner Voodoo Song to the Sultan of Saratoga in the wake of his victory. With all due respect to both the writers and the horse in question, I respectfully disagree with that assessment. There is no horse actively in training that will (or, for that matter, can) do what Fourstardave managed to accomplish during his long career. This week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which will be posted to AndrewChampagne.com Monday, goes into greater detail on Fourstardave’s legacy and why he’s not remembered on a national scale as much as he probably should be.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We were washed out of the Pick Four when races were taken off the turf.

MONDAY’S PLAY: My action will revolve around #4 FLOWERS FOR LISA in the seventh. He’s the third choice on the morning line, and I hope it stays that way since he seems like the lone speed. I’ll put $10 on him to win, and I’ll single him in this 50-cent late Pick Four ticket that starts in the sixth and assumes turf races stay there: 2,7,8 with 4 with 2,4,5,7 with 1,4,8,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $34

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Flowers for Lisa, Race 7
Longshot: Fixed Point, Race 1

R1

Grandmas Favorite
Fooch
Fixed Point

#1 GRANDMAS FAVORITE: Is one of two Wesley Ward trainees in this race, and I slightly prefer him. He hasn’t run since December, but he was third behind a stakes-quality horse that day, and I think he’s the one to beat if he’s ready; #6 FOOCH: Is the other Ward runner and tries turf for the first time. He’s certainly got plenty of early zip, but he’s not necessarily bred to run well on turf; #3 FIXED POINT: Was claimed last time out by an outfit that doesn’t claim many runners and has been going well at the meet. Luis Saez hops aboard, and we may get a price.

R2

Asian’s Way
Anna Rae
Woodland entry

#6 ASIAN’S WAY: Ran well here earlier in the meet in a roughly-run event. She missed second by a neck despite having to check hard in the stretch, and given the win two back, it’s fair to assume she’s in peak form; #7 ANNA RAE: Had won two in a row prior to a misfire last time out, and she was claimed out of that race by Robertino Diodoro. She’s a top contender, although her chances go down in the event of a wet track; WOODLAND ENTRY: I prefer #1A PAULA’S PISTOL, who cuts back in distance and has yet to run a truly bad race this season. Kendrick Carmouche rides her back, and she could be prominent early.

R3

Shanghai Dreams
Hit a Provisional
Grand Banks

#7 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Rallied to be fourth in her debut, which turned out to be a strong race for the level. She adds Lasix, drops down in class, and doesn’t appear to catch the strongest maiden claiming field; #5 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Rallied strongly to just miss in her debut downstate. That race was contested at a shorter distance, and if that form translates to two turns, she’ll be very tough; #1 GRAND BANKS: Can’t be endorsed on top given her 0 for 20 career mark, but she’s finished second twice in three starts for this barn and figures to be running well late.

R4

Hawaiian Noises
Seismic Jolt
Fog of War

#7 HAWAIIAN NOISES: Has worked well ahead of his debut and has the pedigree to be a runner. He’s by Super Saver, out of a mare that’s produced several stakes horses, and runs for owner/breeder/trainer Wesley Ward; #10 SEISMIC JOLT: Hammered for $800,000 earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree, and has worked to the purchase price. I’m not crazy about the post, but he could be talented enough to work out a trip; #5 FOG OF WAR: Has a lot going for him ahead of his debut. He’s a Chad Brown trainee by War Front and out of a Galileo mare, and his second dam is multiple Grade 1 winner Riskaverse. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because he may want more ground.

R5

Party in the Sand
Tequila Sunday
Lightworker

#3 PARTY IN THE SAND: Takes a big drop to run in this maiden claiming event, and that could be enough in a race without much form shown by the other runners. She showed some zip last time out, and this barn’s horses have run well this meet; #2 TEQUILA SUNDAY: Has acquired some bad habits at the gate, and those cost her a runaway win three back. She was fourth at this level last time out, and this barn’s gotten hot of late; #4 LIGHTWORKER: May have bounced last time out after a good effort two back. A return to that form could get her a big piece of this.

R6

Lou’s Chardonnay
Orchid Party
Karen’s Gem

#7 LOU’S CHARDONNAY: Was a runaway winner earlier in the meet and was claimed that day by Steve Asmussen. She’s got plenty of early speed, and it helps that Santana has opted to ride her back; #2 ORCHID PARTY: Gets back to her preferred surface and drops down in class after two unsuccessful outings on turf. She won three in a row earlier this year and was third in a restricted stakes race; #8 KAREN’S GEM: Just missed against similar company last time out. A similar effort would give her a shot, and she could sit an ideal trip just behind a fast early pace.

R7

Flowers for Lisa
You’re to Blame
Take Your Guns

#4 FLOWERS FOR LISA: Has found his form of late for trainer Jorge Navarro and could get an ideal setup here. He’s probably the lone true speed horse in this field, and he capitalized on a similar scenario earlier in the meet; #2 YOU’RE TO BLAME: Has been running against stakes foes most of the year and drops down in class for this event. His best race puts him right there, but the recent running lines haven’t aged well; #5 TAKE YOUR GUNS: Was beaten just three lengths in the Grade 2 Brooklyn two back before not threatening Diversify in the Grade 2 Suburban. This is a more appropriate spot, though he may need more pace than he’s likely to get.

R8

My Roxy Girl
Out of Orbit
Take Charge Aubrey

#5 MY ROXY GIRL: Gets my tepid top pick in a very confusing race. She’s finished second five times in a row, but is a play for me here given the likely race shape, which could favor her late kick; #4 OUT OF ORBIT: Ran third against what seems like a much better group here last time out. Her win two back was good, and it seems like she may have figured things out; #7 TAKE CHARGE AUBREY: Tried stakes company at Finger Lakes last time out, and those waters proved too deep. She cuts back in distance, gets Jose Ortiz, and will likely get plenty of support at the windows.

R9

Cause I’m Alex (MTO)
Mobridge
Vincento

#11 MOBRIDGE: Generally runs the same race every time out and was claimed by Danny Gargan, who does great work with new acquisitions. He’s run very well here in the past and beat similar company here a season ago; #8 VINCENTO: Has improved since switching to turf and beat my top pick last time out. Two turns on turf is a question mark, but he did win going two turns on dirt last winter at Aqueduct; IMPERIO ENTRY: #1A PECULIAR SENSATION seems like the main speed in here, but don’t sleep on #1 BRIMSTONE, who returns to turf and gets Luis Saez. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAUSE I’M ALEX, IMPERIO ENTRY, CHARMING INDY.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/12/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $602.50

Saturday was a pretty horrible day for those in charge of determining both which races would stay on the turf and when to make those decisions. Two races in the middle of the card were taken off the turf just 40 minutes before post time of the day’s first race, while the 11th was taken off the turf after the eighth race was run. The latter decision meant that several multi-race wagers ending in that race ended with an “ALL” payout, which is far from ideal.

We can’t control the weather. I understand that. With that being said, it’s not like those in charge didn’t know about the condition of the turf course and incoming threats to it. If you had a strong opinion in yesterday’s finale on the grass and played it as such in the Pick Six or late Pick Four, you got hosed, as your “ALL” tickets were worth less than others who used multiple horses (and as such hit for multiple combinations). Simply put, there has to be a better way to do this moving forward.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I can’t complain with the trip Mr Cub got in the Lure Stakes, but he folded turning for home. The losing streak continues, as we dropped $20.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a shot at the late Pick Four (assuming races carded for turf stay there). It looks like a fun sequence, and I’ll try to extract some value out of #3 SANTA MONICA in the Waya. My 50-cent ticket is as follows: 4,7 with ALL with 3 with 1,2,6,7,9,10.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Malibu Stacy, Race 4
Longshot: Liora, Race 5

R1

Slot
Diodoro entry
Take Notice

#5 SLOT: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a failed turf experiment last time out. The Pletcher barn has been unusually aggressive of late, so the drop isn’t necessarily a red flag, and his usual dirt race would make him tough; DIODORO ENTRY: I prefer #2B YOU’RE KILLIN ME, who drops back in for a tag after a pair of OK races against starter allowance foes. Having said that, Cohen’s listed aboard both parts of the entry, meaning one part of it is likely to scratch, and I can’t pick it on top with that uncertainty in mind; #4 TAKE NOTICE: Gets a positive rider switch to Joel Rosario after fading at this route earlier in the meet. That was against a better group, and the lone work since hints that he bounced out of it well.

R2

Singapore Trader
Joe’s Smokin Gun
Sir Frost

#9 SINGAPORE TRADER: Drops into the maiden claiming ranks after several failed tries against special weight foes. He was second behind an eventual stakes winner here last year, and two turns could be the route he wants; #5 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Is 0 for 12 with three straight second-place finishes coming into this event. He’s shown improvement of late, though, and Ricardo Santana, Jr., hops aboard; #7 SIR FROST: Merits a look at a price. He likely needed the race last time out off the long layoff, and he showed significant improvement in his first start for Barclay Tagg, whose runners have been firing this meet.

R3

Data Driven
Yourdreamsormine
Big Guy Ian

#6 DATA DRIVEN: Was claimed by Robertino Diodoro following a second-place finish against similar foes last time out. His dirt sprints have been solid, and he’d benefit from a wet track if one was to present itself; #1 YOURDREAMSORMINE: Hasn’t won in more than a year, but drops in for a tag for one of the highest-percentage barns in the country. He has back races that would win this if repeated, although those races took place over Gulfstream Park’s surface (which is very different from Saratoga); #2 BIG GUY IAN: Has ample early speed and was claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez. He’ll likely set the early fractions, but the winless local mark is a major concern.

R4

Malibu Stacy
Fire Key
Rumble Doll

#2 MALIBU STACY: Seems like the lone true early speed horse in this turf sprint. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s run against stakes-quality horses all year and will likely relish the class relief; #3 FIRE KEY: Was 2 for 2 at this route last summer and caught a very wet turf course a few weeks ago, rendering that race irrelevant. She could sit a great stalking trip beneath the rider that piloted her to both of those 2017 victories; #7 RUMBLE DOLL: Is a late-running closer that likes this route and would benefit from a speed duel. There’s a chance she’s past her prime, but this is a high-percentage barn that can’t be ignored.

R5

Multi Strategy
Liora
Speedy Solution

#6 MULTI STRATEGY: Fetched $240,000 at auction as a weanling and is bred to be a very good turf horse. Her turf Tomlinson rating of 341 is the highest in the field, and trainer Chad Brown must be respected; #8 LIORA: Closed powerfully in her debut, which was rained off the turf. She’s bred up and down for grass and could improve at second asking; #1 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Didn’t have the easiest of trips in her debut downstate, but was beaten just two lengths despite a pedigree that suggests she wants to go long. A cleaner trip could be enough to put her right there.

R6

Winandyourin Gin
Kiska
Feedback

#1 WINANDYOURIN GIN: Gets a tepid nod in an incredibly competitive 2-year-old race. She raced evenly going shorter and should improve with experience and added distance; #8 KISKA: Has worked well ahead of her debut for Todd Pletcher. Her local drills are solid, and progeny of Into Mischief are usually precocious; #3 FEEDBACK: Has been working steadily ahead of her unveiling, and the recent five-furlong drills are telling. She’s hinted at talent, but may want to go even longer than today’s distance.

R7

Frostie Anne (MTO)
Sweet Sting
Transaction Tax

#7 SWEET STING: Chased the talented La Moneda last time out and was third in a stakes race two back. If this stays on the turf, she’s strictly the one to beat based on her recent form; #4 TRANSACTION TAX: Clearly figures to be the one to catch, given her ample early speed. She was third last time out at this level, and while she may be better around one turn, she’s won going two turns in the past; #3 GONDORA: Makes her American debut and gets Lasix for the first time. Her prior connections thought enough of her to try her against some of Germany’s best fillies a season ago. DIRT SELECTIONS: FROSTIE ANNE, STAY FOND, MAXIMUS BEAUTY.

R8

Tight Ten
Call Paul
Sir Truebadour

#4 TIGHT TEN: Cruised to victory in his debut, where he easily dispatched 11 other rivals in wire-to-wire fashion. He’s bred to be very good, and it’s tough to argue with these connections given the success they’ve had this summer; #2 CALL PAUL: Earned this field’s highest last-out Beyer Speed Figure in a debut win at Delaware Park. He sold for $210,000 earlier this year despite a very modest pedigree, and there’s a chance he could be a freak; #5 SIR TRUEBADOUR: Wired the field in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor last time out and certainly has lots of early speed. They did crawl home that day, though, and Santana opts to ride the other entrant from this barn.

R9

Santa Monica
Mom’s On Strike
Lottie

#3 SANTA MONICA: Has won two of three starts since coming to America and most recently took the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She beat a pretty good group that day, and a similar performance here would likely make her a formidable foe; #5 MOM’S ON STRIKE: Has won five of her last seven starts and was beaten just two lengths in the Grade 2 New York, a race whose second and third-place finishers have already come back to win. Joe Sharp has gotten off to a great start at the meet, and she’s shown she can get this distance; #1 LOTTIE: May be a cut below these, but is one of only a few that’s ever shown early speed. She was up close throughout last time out, and a similar trip here seems likely.

R10

Ayers Rock (MTO)
Girl at War
Structural Deficit

#2 GIRL AT WAR: Ran well in her debut despite being bred up and down for turf and forced to run on a wet main track. She’s by promising sire Declaration of War and out of a Galileo mare, and she should step forward at second asking in a tough-to-figure finale; #1 STRUCTURAL DEFICIT: Is one of the better-bred 2-year-olds on the grounds, being by the late Scat Daddy and out of a Tapit mare. The pedigree says she’ll take to turf, and she merits respect coming from the powerhouse Chad Brown barn; #6 TRISH THE DISH: Raced evenly in her debut after a slow break and was not helped by a very slow pace. She’s bred to want two turns, and Luis Saez sticking with her is a plus. DIRT SELECTIONS: AYERS ROCK, GIRL AT WAR, STRUCTURAL DEFICIT.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/11/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $622.50

Today’s big event on track is the Grade 1 Fourstardave, but it could very well be overshadowed by an annual event taking place at the Top of the Stretch. That’s the Saratoga Stumble, being run by our own Sam Hollingsworth. The premise is something like this: The entire town of Mechanicville shows up, buys matching t-shirts, and drinks itself into oblivion. Apparently, it’s a blast.

To those stumbling along today: Have fun and be safe. Most importantly, though, make sure Sam pulls through in one piece!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I bet Thirteen Songs thinking she’d close into a fast pace, not that she’d help make said fast pace. We dropped $20.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I apologize in advance to my editor, because my play comes late in the card. It sure seems like #5 MR CUB is the lone speed in the Lure Stakes (race 10), and I need to play him. I’ll put $10 on him to win and place, and I really hope we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Lyrical Lady, Race 3
Longshot: La Naturel, Race 7

R1

Prognostication
Lemonist
Gosilently

#6 PROGNOSTICATION: Hasn’t run in 10 months, but is protected from being claimed, which is always an encouraging sign. He could benefit from the likely race shape and figures to be running well late; #1 LEMONIST: Has been gelded since his last start in December and sports a pair of flashy local workouts. This is the weakest field he’s faced since breaking his maiden in 2016; #8 GOSILENTLY: Has hit the board in each of his last 11 starts, most of which have come for today’s connections. He just missed here last summer and figures to be prominent early.

R2

Chief Executive
Calumet entry
Exchequer

#4 CHIEF EXECUTIVE: Has several strong local works ahead of his debut for prominent connections. It’s tough to debut going seven furlongs, but he’s bred to be a good one and has worked accordingly; CALUMET ENTRY: #1A SOUTHERN PHANTOM could win at second asking, but he’ll be bet heavily for reasons that have very little to do with his ability. He may need to show more early speed here than he did in his debut; #8 EXCHEQUER: Fetched $150,000 at auction last fall and has worked well for red-hot connections. He may be bred better for turf, but his talent could be enough to get him home on dirt.

R3

Lyrical Lady
Virginia Eloise
Mucho Amor

#3 LYRICAL LADY: Was one of the most impressive debut winners of the meet and figures to be favored in the Grade 2 Adirondack. She won by nearly six lengths and appeared to have plenty left in reserve; #5 VIRGINIA ELOISE: Finished well in her debut at Belmont and is bred to want lots of distance. She showed she could rate a bit that day, and that could come in handy here; #1 MUCHO AMOR: Graduated at Keeneland and sports a recent bullet workout on the training track. Wesley Ward is one of the top 2-year-old trainers in the country, and he cannot be ignored here.

R4

Starting Point (MTO)
Teachable Moment
Noble Nebraskan

#8 TEACHABLE MOMENT: Closed to be third in his debut and has a pedigree that hints he could embrace more ground. Improvement is logical at second asking, especially for these connections; #12 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Sports an impressive pedigree and merits respect if he draws in off the AE list. It’s tough to debut at this route, but he’s worked well and may be a nice price; #2 WINNING FACTOR: Was second in the race my top pick exits and stretches out after some solid local workouts. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because he’s not necessarily bred to want two turns. DIRT SELECTIONS: STARTING POINT, IAN GLASS, TEACHABLE MOMENT.

R5

Payne (MTO)
Unlockthepotential
Lunaire

#3 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL: Stretches out after being beaten less than a length in his first start since October. He likely needed that race as a tightener, and that day’s winner ran well in the Quick Call earlier this week; #6 LUNAIRE: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown an ability to run well late, and that’s valuable given the early pace signed on here. He could shake up the exotics at a price; #2 MOROCCO: Was almost certainly short last time out in his first start since the fall, and the blinkers come back on in his second start off the bench. That could get him more involved early at a big number. DIRT SELECTIONS: PAYNE, CLUTCH CARGO, MESOTHERM.

R6

Road Home
Empire of War
Chase and Colorado

#5 ROAD HOME: Closed to be second in his debut for a barn that doesn’t often win with first-time starters. There’s reason to expect improvement here, and if that happens, he could be tough; #7 EMPIRE OF WAR: Has worked well on the training track ahead of his unveiling. Todd Pletcher’s runners must be respected, although this one may be better-bred for turf; #4 CHASE AND COLORADO: Is the other Pletcher-trained first-time starter. He’s by Tapit, which means he likely wants as much ground as possible.

R7

Aunt Babe (MTO)
La Naturel
Conquest Tizfire

#5 LA NATUREL: Has yet to run a bad race in her career and is a closer in a race that seems to boast tons of early speed. She was third beaten less than a length earlier in the meet, and we may get a price given this trainer’s small barn; #2 CONQUEST TIZFIRE: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but has had ample chances to win and seems to prefer settling for minor awards. She looked like a winner in mid-stretch last time, but she let the eventual winner battle back; #4 MAJESTIC WON: Took to the turf well last time out, when she graduated by nearly three lengths downstate. Luis Saez signs on, and this one figures to be involved from the outset. DIRT SELECTIONS: AUNT BABE, DANYELLI, QUEEN MUM.

R8

Delta Prince
Heart to Heart
Divisidero

#2 DELTA PRINCE: Has come out of the shadow of older sister Royal Delta and turned into a top-class turf horse. His win in the Grade 2 King Edward was strong, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip behind a hot pace; #5 HEART TO HEART: Is one of the most fun horses to root for given his longevity and the fact that he may be better than ever at age seven. He won two Grade 1 races earlier this year, but the presence of #6 VOODOO SONG means he almost certainly won’t be alone on the lead; #3 DIVISIDERO: Is a deep closer that will benefit from a fast pace. He may want a bit longer, but the quicker they go early, the more he’ll like it.

R9

Mask
Breaking the Rules
Always a Suspect

#3 MASK: Cuts back to seven furlongs, which may be the trip he wants. He may not have turned into a top-class 3-year-old, but his best race could win this and he should be able to sit just off the pace; #5 BREAKING THE RULES: Was second in a swiftly-run allowance last time out and seems like a one-run sprinter that should get better as he gets older. A fast pace would benefit him, and this distance likely hits him right between the eyes; #4 ALWAYS A SUSPECT: Likes Saratoga and exits a win earlier in the meet (albeit against weaker foes). All three of his starts over this track have been solid, and Robertino Diodoro has a strong record with new acquisitions.

R10

Mr Cub
Conquest Panthera
Zennor

#5 MR CUB: Could be the lone speed in this race, which is always dangerous on the inner turf. He was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 2 Wise Dan last time out, and he could be talented enough to lead this field the whole way; #7 CONQUEST PANTHERA: Hasn’t won in a while, but chased Delta Prince in the Grade 2 King Edward and can show some early zip if he has to. Luis Saez hops aboard, and he’s riding as well as anyone at the meet; #9 ZENNOR: Has won three in a row, including this race last year, but he has not started in more than a year. If he comes back ready to run, he’s obviously a contender, but that’s a sizable “if.”

R11

Shanghai Dreams
Hit a Provisional
Fancycase

#13 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Is emblematic of an oddity here, as several major contenders reside on the AE list and need scratches to run. She debuted with a fourth-place finish in a very solid race for the level and drops in for a tag; #12 HIT A PROVISIONAL: Rallied to be second at this level in her debut and is another that needs some luck to draw in. This barn has quietly gotten off to a solid start at the meet, and she could improve in her second outing; #10 FANCYCASE: Seems best of the main body of the field given the early speed she’s flashed of late. The body of the field seems light on horses that can pass others late, so the speed could be helpful.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/10/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $642.50

News broke yesterday (per Equibase’s Dave Litfin and DRF’s David Grening) that Wednesday’s fifth race was run not at the listed distance of a mile and a sixteenth, but at a mile and an eighth. With all due respect to the powers-that-be at the New York Racing Association, how was this allowed to happen?

You don’t see baseball diamonds with bases 95 feet apart instead of 90, or NFL fields 110 yards long instead of 100. Forgive me for thinking this is unreasonable, but if a race is listed with a 3:15 post time and a distance of a mile and a sixteenth, racing fans should be able to expect a race at that time and distance. We need to get the small things right in order to tackle the big issues this sport has, and it’s incredibly frustrating that something as basic as it gets in horse racing was mishandled.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We took a shot with a price, but Gio Lucky didn’t fire, so we dropped $18.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll concentrate on the third race, where I think #5 THIRTEEN SONGS could benefit a great deal from the class drop. I’ll keep things simple and put $20 on her to win in hopes that we get the 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Elios Milos, Race 6
Longshot: Thirteen Songs, Race 3

R1

Cavallotto
Ninetyeighttwo
Planet Trailblazer

#6 CAVALLOTTO: Was fourth against better company and drops down to run in this event. He’s won two of his four career dirt sprints, including his lone start at this seven-furlong distance; #5 NINETYEIGHTTWO: Is a huge price on the morning line, but I think we’ll see something much shorter come post time. I’ll be happy if I’m wrong, though, as his two dirt sprints earlier this year at Tampa were both wins and Joel Rosario takes the call for a smaller barn; #4 PLANET TRAILBLAZER: Takes a colossal drop in class for his first race since October. He’s been gelded since his last effort and won here a season ago going longer, and while he probably wins if he’s right, the drop and this barn’s record with horses off of long layoffs will entice me to play against him on most of my tickets.

R2

Mrs Vargas (MTO)
Amazing Audrey
Secret Quality

#4 AMAZING AUDREY: Drops in for a tag for the first time and cuts back in distance after two straight tries at a mile and a quarter. She should appreciate the class relief, and her best efforts have come with today’s pilot in the irons; #6 SECRET QUALITY: Has been competitive in both of her career starts, which came at this level. Mike Maker claimed her following her most recent performance, and she should appreciate two turns; #5 LOVE TO SHARE: Obviously didn’t care for sloppy dirt at Monmouth and returns to her preferred surface here. She crossed the wire first in her last try for a tag at Gulfstream, and she figures to be moving well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: MRS VARGAS, MISS LOYALTY, GOLDEN VALE.

R3

Thirteen Songs
You Know Too
Luz Mimi

#5 THIRTEEN SONGS: Found the Grade 2 Honorable Miss a bit too tough, as she ran a distant fourth behind Finley’sluckycharm. This seems like the right level, and she could sit a perfect stalking trip; #4 YOU KNOW TOO: Has been running against stakes company for most of her career, and is undefeated in non-stakes races. The blinkers go on, but it seems like she wants to go much longer, which is a red flag; #3 LUZ MIMI: Is a proven closer that seems to be in good form. She’s won two of four races this year, and both of those wins have come with today’s rider aboard.

R4

Long Gray Line
Malibu Strings
Lookin At Blessing

#2 LONG GRAY LINE: Drops down in class and adds blinkers for a barn that’s had a tremendous year to this point. He boasts a win going two turns, as well as a recent bullet workout at Churchill Downs; #7 MALIBU STRINGS: Ships up from Gulfstream Park, drops down in class, and tries two turns on dirt for the first time. That’s a lot of changes, and while any one of them could wake him up, this seems like a panicky drop; #1 LOOKIN AT BLESSING: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops down in class and stretches out to two turns, where he’s run credible races before.

R5

Mo Wheels Up (MTO)
Two Shakes
Fierce Scarlett

#7 TWO SHAKES: Fetched $310,000 at auction last year and is bred to be a very good turf horse. She’s by Exchange Rate, out of a Dynaformer mare, and trained by Wesley Ward, one of the top first-out conditioners in the country; #3 FIERCE SCARLETT: Goes out for the always-formidable Chad Brown barn and is by the late Scat Daddy, a prominent turf influence. Her most recent turf work was solid, and she could be a runner; #6 GLOBAL EXCHANGE: Has a very similar pedigree to my top selection and goes out for Jimmy Toner, who certainly knows how to win with turf horses. She may need a race, but it wouldn’t be a shock if she shows talent at a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: MO WHEELS UP, TWO SHAKES, PAKHET.

R6

Elios Milos
Leap to Glory
Proletariat

#6 ELIOS MILOS: Won his debut and was a credible second in his first try against winners. He may have been a bit too close to the pace last time out, and there appears to be some speed for him to chase here; #4 LEAP TO GLORY: Put it all together last time out in his second start for Charlton Baker. That came against a suspect field, but Rosario keeps the mount, and when this barn gets a horse going in the right direction, look out; #3 PROLETARIAT: Makes his first start since a trainer switch and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez. He’s got plenty of early zip, and his usual race would likely get him a piece of this.

R7

Empressof the Nile
Violet Blue
Bengala

#1 EMPRESSOF THE NILE: Chased Grade 2 foes last time out and drops into allowance company. She’s shown an affinity for marathon distances and broke her maiden here last summer; #3 VIOLET BLUE: Has done her best work going very long on turf and was fourth in a stakes race downstate last month. There’s a chance she’s in career-best form, and she should be moving well late; #6 BENGALA: Wired a lesser field last time out and hasn’t run a bad race since coming to America. She likely won’t get an easy lead here, but the inner turf is kind to horses with tactical zip.

R8

Theaterintheround
Cause Me Grief
Questeq

#9 THEATERINTHEROUND: Drops in for a tag after running fourth in her first try against winners. It’s an aggressive drop, and her past races seem a cut above those possessed by the rest of the field; #7 CAUSE ME GRIEF: Was claimed last time out by Patrick Reynolds and figures to be prominent early. Javier Castellano hops aboard, and she may be the one they have to run down; #1 QUESTEQ: Hasn’t won in a while, but was a good second at big odds against starter allowance foes earlier in the meet. This barn’s runners have fared well at the meet, and she can’t be ignored in vertical exotics.

R9

Always Sunshine
Mr. Crow
My Boy Tate

#5 ALWAYS SUNSHINE: Gets my nod in a race light on numbers, but heavy on talent. This one was impressive in winning a minor stakes race last time out, and unlike many of these, he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; #2 MR. CROW: Found the Grade 1 Vanderbilt to be too tough, but has a track record of success at Saratoga and should appreciate the class relief. He may be fastest out of the gate, and that could demoralize some of these rivals; #1 MY BOY TATE: Returns to the races for his first outing since February. He got very good over the winter, but this isn’t an easy spot and the rail draw isn’t ideal.

R10

Lost in Manhattan
Wisecrack
Not That Brady

#7 LOST IN MANHATTAN: Was fourth in his debut on dirt and goes to the grass, a surface he’s bred to like. His experience should help him, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; #6 WISECRACK: Fetched $125,000 at auction last year and is bred to be precocious. He’s by The Factor, whose offspring tend to like turf, and trainer Rick Violette is solid with debuting runners; #13 NOT THAT BRADY: Is unlikely to draw in off the AE list, but must be used if he does. He’s out of the mare Lisa’s Booby Trap, one of the best stories in racing during her career, and he’s worked well here of late.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/9/18

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $660.50

I hate using this section to have to address people with no sense of decency and/or respect, but here we are. During Wednesday’s card at Saratoga, NYRA paddock reporter Maggie Wolfendale tweeted news of a horrifying encounter with an older man who ran up to her, grabbed her hair, and bragged about it.

If you think this behavior, or behavior like it, is in any way acceptable, please stop reading anything I produce (either in The Pink Sheet or on my website) immediately. I want nothing to do with anyone who thinks it’s okay to physically harass women in that way. Additionally, if you saw this happen and can identify the perpetrator in question, please contact NYRA security so this clown can be banned from the premises.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Speke didn’t break and was second all the way around the racetrack, thus foiling $20 worth of double tickets.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: It’s another perplexing card, so I’m treading fairly lightly. I’ll focus on the fifth race, and while #9 POTOMAC is the horse to beat, my exactas key possible overlay #7 GIO LUCKY, who’s wheeled back quickly by a trainer who has shown an ability to win with such runners. I’ll use that one above and below #1 FLATEXCEL, #3 SOUTHEAST, and Potomac in $3 bets.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Pink Twist, Race 7
Longshot: Codrington, Race 8

R1

Time Warp
Molly’s Party
Miss After School

#4 TIME WARP: Gets my nod in a race where I could not possibly have less of an opinion (heck of a start, right?). This pick is solely because I think she’s much, much better than she showed in her debut, where she missed the break and paid dearly for it; #6 MOLLY’S PARTY: Was third going shorter early in the meet and stretches out at second asking. I’m not sure she wants to go this long, but of the ones in here with experience, she has by far the best recent effort; #7 MISS AFTER SCHOOL: Hasn’t worked particularly quickly ahead of her debut, but she’s bred to want this trip, Joel Rosario signs on, and she’ll likely be a square price.

R2

Brooklyn Gerty
Malarkey
Free Kitty

#6 BROOKLYN GERTY: Returns after more than a year away and has a few recent works that indicate she’s ready to run. Additionally, she catches what seems like a soft field for the level; #3 MALARKEY: Has finished second in both of her dirt starts and ran reasonably well last time out at this level. John Velazquez keeps the mount, and she figures to be prominent early; #1 FREE KITTY: Is 0 for 13 lifetime, but generally runs the same race every time out, and such an effort is likely good enough for a piece of it here.

R3

Dove Shoot
The Mason Factor
Cross Multiply

#1 DOVE SHOOT: Led most of the way in his debut going slightly longer downstate. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and his early zip should be on display given the rail draw; #8 THE MASON FACTOR: Woke up last time out going short on turf at Belmont. He was second going seven furlongs that day, and while I’m a bit skeptical of if he’ll want even less ground, a repeat of that effort gives him a shot; #5 CROSS MULTIPLY: Adds blinkers after tiring going longer earlier in the meet. He’s got experience going short on turf, and he may be in a position to sit back and make one big late run beneath Joel Rosario.

R4

Single Gem (MTO)
Congruity
Phone Funky Munky

#3 CONGRUITY: Wired a similar field downstate that included many runners in this event. He had a perfect trip that day, but this heat seems to have a similar lack of early speed, one he could capitalize on; #10 PHONE FUNKY MUNKY: Drops in for a tag after three unsuccessful starts against allowance foes. He ran well here twice last year and could appreciate the class relief; #5 MICHAEL WONDERFUL: Was a beaten favorite last time out at this level, but his lone prior start around two turns was his lone win to date. In that race, he beat my top pick in this very event. DIRT SELECTIONS: SINGLE GEM, MAIMO, ESPRESSO CALIENTE.

R5

Potomac
Southeast
Gio Lucky

#9 POTOMAC: Will likely be favored after putting it all together in the mud at Belmont Park. He tries winners, and while he may be overbet, he seems like the most likely winner; #3 SOUTHEAST: Drops down in class after falling victim to a paceless race earlier in the meet. His sprints from earlier in the year weren’t bad, and he’d benefit from fast early fractions; #7 GIO LUCKY: Gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano and is wheeled back quickly by a barn that’s had success with similar runners in the past.

R6

Secret Passage (MTO)
Ticonderoga
Aquaphobia

#4 TICONDEROGA: Was my top pick in the rescheduled Lure Stakes and looms large provided this race stays on the turf. He’s run against top-class opposition in the past and has done some of his best running around two turns; #7 AQUAPHOBIA: Is another that may benefit from going to a two-turn route of ground. Toss the Grade 2 San Luis Rey, and you’re left with a runner that hasn’t run a bad race since being claimed last fall; #8 SIDING SPRING: Returns off a long layoff and figures to be prominent early. He’s been gelded, and he may have the speed to clear this field early. DIRT SELECTIONS: SECRET PASSAGE, TEAM COLORS, SIDING SPRING.

R7

Pink Twist
Puffery
My Girl Annie

#5 PINK TWIST: Beat many of today’s rivals when second in an allowance downstate. She goes two turns for the first time, but she’s worked well and has the pedigree to handle this trip; #2 PUFFERY: Was beaten a length and a half by my top selection last time out. She’s got plenty of tactical speed, and John Velazquez retains the mount; #1 MY GIRL ANNIE: Improved when stretched out to two turns last week. She was second that day, and while this is a better field, at least the distance isn’t much of a question mark.

R8

Goodbye Brockley
Kreesie
Codrington

#2 GOODBYE BROCKLEY: Won going long two back before finishing a close-up second going seven furlongs. She gets an extra furlong here, and that seems like the trip she wants; #3 KREESIE: Beat my top pick two back and tries two turns for the first time. She’s got plenty of talent, but she may need more pace in front of her than she’ll get; #7 CODRINGTON: Has run well here in the past and may have been compromised by the yielding going earlier in the meet. If the ground is on the firmer side of the spectrum, it will play to her strengths, and in that instance, the morning line strikes me as an overlay.

R9

Mama Mary
Andretta
Something Joyful

#7 MAMA MARY: Ran well in her debut (which came up as a pretty tough event for the level) before not taking to a sloppy main track at all last time out. She goes back to the grass here, and assuming this stays on that surface, I’m expecting an improved performance; #2 ANDRETTA: Just missed when entered for a tag last time out, and was also very competitive here last year when put up to second in a DQ that puzzles me to this day. She’s shown talent and may get first run turning for home; #3 SOMETHING JOYFUL: Was second in her debut and is certainly a competitor if she’s right, but she hasn’t been seen in 11 months, so she may very well need this race.