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Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/8/18

Posted on August 7, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $680.50

Monday’s feature was the Cab Calloway division of the New York Stallion Series. Therapist was a heavy favorite when entries were drawn, and his presence was a factor (though perhaps not the only one) in the race scratching down to a field of just two other runners. Naturally, Therapist cruised home in a romp.

I had a similar complaint last year when the Grade 3 Shuvee ran with just a three-horse field, and I’ll bring it out of the mothballs here: Stakes races at Saratoga should never, EVER go with a three-horse field. This is supposed to be the biggest meet of the year on the east coast, and it should represent the best of what this sport has to offer. Three-horse fields do not fit that description, and they never will.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: We ended a bit of a slump in the pick box, but both mid-priced horses given out in this section failed to fire. We dropped $20.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I found this card pretty tough, and I’m not in love with anything. I’ll attempt to make some money with $5 doubles starting in the eighth. #2 SPEKE is bred up and down to love two turns and may be the lone speed in the field. I’ll single him and use #1 WORLD OF TROUBLE, #2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL, #6 SHANGROYAL, and #10 STOLEN PISTOL in the ninth (the Quick Call Stakes).

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Speke, Race 8
Longshot: Held Accountable, Race 6

Brockton Geoge
Sumner
Kenyan

#3 BROCKTON GEORGE: Takes a big drop in class and presents an intriguing alternative to the likely favorites. He has back form that would be good enough to win, and two turns won’t be his undoing; #1 SUMNER: Takes a nosedive in class after running fifth in a $100,000 stakes race last time out. He’ll take money based on his connections, and the shallower waters here could be a relief, but he’s yet to show that he can handle this distance; #6 KENYAN: Hasn’t won in a while, but has made a habit of picking up minor awards at this level. His lone start here was a win, and he’d benefit from a lively pace up front.

Promise Me Roses (MTO)
Fiveinthemorning
Truly Courageous

#2 FIVEINTHEMORNING: Just missed when dropped to this level last time out at Belmont. Her debut at this route last summer saw her run a decent third against an OK group, and she should be running well late; #5 TRULY COURAGEOUS: Took a step forward when third last time out downstate, and the lack of other serious early speed in here could move her forward even further. She could be the one they have to catch turning for home; #4 PAZ THE WINE: Is 0 for 13 and impossible to endorse on top, but she’s been very competitive at this level and adds blinkers for a barn that’s due to get going at the meet. DIRT SELECTIONS: PROMISE ME ROSES, PUFFIN PATTY, CATANIA ROSE.

Beautiful Buzz
Tiffany’s Vision
She’sakittykat

#4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ: Adds blinkers first off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez and seems like the main speed in here. Rodriguez has gotten a bit aggressive of late, so this barn could start racking up wins pretty quickly; #1 TIFFANY’S VISION: Seems to have figured things out of late and was third against similar company earlier in the meet. She figures to be the one to provide opposition to my top pick early on, especially given the rail draw; #2 SHE’SAKITTYKAT: Would benefit from a speed duel given her late-running style. She was second against similar-level foes downstate and gets a rider switch to Joe Bravo.

Transistor (MTO)
Factor This
Killeen

#2 FACTOR THIS: Was fourth against much better last time out and handily beat this level of competition two back. He should benefit from the likely pace scenario and figures to be prominent; #10 KILLEEN: Made a huge middle move before flattening out against allowance foes. He’s 2 for 2 when running for a claiming tag, and he could be good enough to overcome the outside draw; #9 JAILHOUSE KITTEN: Won two in a row before checking in third last time out, and Mike Maker reached in to claim him back. Irad Ortiz hopping aboard can’t be overlooked. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSISTOR, FACTOR THIS, HOARD.

Crazy Life
Pier Forty
Somelikeithotbrown

#1 CRAZY LIFE: Fetched $145,000 at auction and has worked steadily ahead of his debut. He’s bred to like turf, and this doesn’t strike me as the strongest field for the level; #9 PIER FORTY: Hammered for $250,000 earlier this year and is bred to be a good one. He’s by City Zip and out of an A.P. Indy mare. This is a barn that can win with first-time starters; #2 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN: Clearly didn’t take to a sloppy dirt track in his debut, and I’m willing to throw the race out. He’s bred to like the grass, and this barn’s runners tend to get better with experience.

Lady Bergen
Held Accountable
Tiznow’s Smile

#3 LADY BERGEN: Disappointed when favored last time out at Monmouth, but that turned out to be a very fast heat. There are many need-the-lead types in here, and this one appears to be fastest out of the gate; #6 HELD ACCOUNTABLE: Has excuses for each of her last three starts (sloppy track, layoff, too far), and she could benefit from a lively pace. This seems like the right combination of route and level, and we may get a price; #1 TIZNOW’S SMILE: Hasn’t won in a while, but gets the services of Joel Rosario, who may take her off of a fast pace.

Mesotherm (MTO)
High Moon
Flyoff

#3 HIGH MOON: Projects as the main speed in this inner turf race, and those horses are always dangerous. He’s won three of his last five starts, and top turf rider Geroux gets the call here; #5 FLYOFF: Responded to the drop in class last time out with a runaway victory and tries winners for the first time. He’s never been two turns before, but he has the pedigree to handle such a trip; #9 FUEL THE BERN: Stretches out after running third in a turf sprint earlier in the meet. Irad Ortiz has ridden him to both of his career wins, and he hops aboard here. DIRT SELECTIONS: MESOTHERM, TRES EQUIS, HIGH MOON.

Speke
New York Hero
J J’s Dreaming

#2 SPEKE: Stretches out to two turns and is bred to run as long as possible. He was second in a solid race for the level last time out and seems like the main speed in here; #5 NEW YORK HERO: Makes his first start for Jonathan Thomas and has a pedigree that suggests he wants this trip. He may have needed his most recent race and could improve here; #1 J J’S DREAMING: Earned a pair of big Beyer Speed Figures downstate and could be favored, but he’s winless in his last five starts, and his two-turn races don’t seem as sharp as his one-turn efforts.

World of Trouble
Stolen Pistol
Majestic Dunhill

#1 WORLD OF TROUBLE: Scratched out of the Grade 2 Amsterdam to await this spot and is bred to like the turf. He’s very fast early and could give the rest of this field a lot of work to do turning for home; #10 STOLEN PISTOL: Has won two in a row against state-breds and is 3 for 4 going short on turf. Joe Sharp’s figured out what he wants to do, and he should be going the right way late; #2 MAJESTIC DUNHILL: Is 2 for 2 this season and won a minor stakes race at Monmouth last time out. His maiden win came at this route last summer, and he doesn’t need to be too far back early, which could help him.

R10

Giant Boo Boo
Wild Colonial Boy
Dab

#8 GIANT BOO BOO: Was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart last time out and seems like the most logical selection in a very confusing finale. Throw out the turf experiment two back, and his body of work looks considerably better; #12 WILD COLONIAL BOY: Ships up from Gulfstream for a trainer that doesn’t run many in New York. The addition of blinkers could help him, since he’s been slow into stride in both of his prior outings; #2 DAB: Has had plenty of chances, but seems like the main early speed here and can’t be totally ignored. He’s never finished worse than third in three prior starts over this main track.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Entries, Purse Money Only, and Lots of Preventable Headaches

Posted on August 6, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

I have a rule of thumb at the racetrack, and it’s a simple one: If you have an opinion on a horse, and you bet it, and you’re right, you should be rewarded for it.

This sounds like a given, and it should be. However, the events leading up to Sunday’s first race at Saratoga turned this concept on its ear.

Here’s what happened, in as few words as I can muster: One of two coupled Joe Sharp trainees scratched at the gate. By New York law, the other half of the entry was forced to run for purse money only, and no wagers would be taken on the horse. That horse won as much the best, but for wagering purposes, the runner-up was declared the “winner.”

The aforementioned law, as it’s been explained to me, is on the books as an attempt to protect bettors. However, let me ask this question: If you’re a gambler, and you were betting the entry because of the horse that ran (as opposed to the horse that scratched), exactly how are you being protected? The only thing that’s protected, in this case, is the cash residing on the track’s end of the betting windows, as they’re refunding your wager rather than paying out a win.

This isn’t just an issue with straight, one-race bets. There have been issues with this in multi-race wagers, as well. The one that stands out to me came a few summers ago at Saratoga. I spread pretty deep in a Pick Four that included a 2-year-old race, and one of the betting interests I used was an entry trained by Edward Barker. Before the race, a part of the entry named Yorkiepoo Princess (who went on to win three stakes races) scratched, leaving just stablemate Kissin Cassie to run for purse money only.

You can guess where this is going. Kissin Cassie won by two lengths (she was about 8-1 or so when her stablemate scratched), and the horse that ran second was a 33-1 shot I did not have on my tickets (nor did pretty much anyone else, judging by the eventual payoffs). I was right to use the entry. The connections of the entry celebrated a victory. Those who bet the entry, however, were left with no profits to show for their astute handicapping.

Explain the concept of, “being right to bet a horse to win, but not winning,” to a novice horse racing fan, and the fan’s head might explode. It should never happen, yet it happens several times a year on the NYRA circuit. These are the simple things we need to clean up if racing is to survive once sports betting becomes widely legalized. If I bet the Michigan Wolverines to beat Notre Dame, and they beat Notre Dame, I expect to collect money. The same principle should apply to horse racing, and it’s not rocket science to think that.

I understand why multi-horse entries exist. Having said that, it’s entirely possible the concept has outlived its usefulness. Southern California does not have entries, and as a result, the circuit does not have this problem. Furthermore, since horse racing’s top level is being populated by fewer and fewer trainers, there are races where entries do not serve their intended purpose.

As an example of this statement, I submit Saratoga’s third race from the August 2nd program. It was a maiden special weight event for turf horses, and Chad Brown had three entrants. Two were coupled (#1 Business Cycle, a main-track-only runner who scratched, and #1A Frontier Market). A third, #3 Hizeem, was not part of the entry, which defies the very principle of entries. If entries exist to protect the public by coupling horses that share owners and/or trainers, why was one Chad Brown trainee not coupled with the other two? This holds especially true since one of the runners would only run if the race was rained off the turf, and in that circumstance, it’s highly likely that at least one of the other Chad Brown-trained runners would scratch. With that in mind, a three-horse entry would have been very improbable and should not have been seen as a bad thing.

The procedures here seem inconsistent to me, and it doesn’t pass the test of being able to explain the concept to a casual fan in less than 15 seconds. If I’m a fan, and I have a discretionary amount of money with which to bet, why would I want to spend all of this time trying to understand principles that don’t make sense? In much less time than it would take to wrap my head around these concepts, I can look up a game preview, read 300 words on the participants, and have enough substance to formulate wagering opinions on that contest.

I believe that we’d be smart to treat every issue this game has with fan education and retention at the forefront. I am not a, “THE SKY IS FALLING!,” type who believes every little issue could be the downfall of horse racing. In fact, my views are far from that. I earnestly believe there are a lot of people in the sport that genuinely want it to succeed and prosper in an age where gambling, in theory, will have less of a stigma attached to it. However, when the sports betting folks get their ducks in a row, and when that provides real competition to horse racing, we’d better be ready with a customer-friendly product that attracts people and keeps them coming back.

There are big problems the sport has that will take a lot of thought to solve. Those will all need time, unity, and, in some cases, short-term sacrifices to fix. However, there are problems we can deal with right away with very little effort that will make it easier to attract and keep new fans, and this is one of them.

In lieu of a better solution (and if someone has one, I’m all ears), NYRA and other organizations that still have multi-horse entries should treat each horse as a separate betting interest. The rules that are on the books are not working as intended, and they’re costing players money rather than ensuring they’re protected. Changes to these procedures and policies would be to the benefit of everyone involved, and they would prevent issues like the ones that arose Sunday at Saratoga from happening again.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/6/18

Posted on August 5, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $700.50

I hate having to use this space to explain archaic betting rules, but here we are. In Sunday’s first race, part of a Joe Sharp-trained entry was a late scratch. By rule, the other half of the entry ran for purse money only and was not an available betting interest. Of course, the other half of the entry won as much the best, and the second-place finisher was deemed the winner for wagering purposes. It’s a weird rule that’s burned a lot of horseplayers in the past, and I wish there was a better one in place (as I’ve explained in this section in the past and will explain again in this week’s edition of “The Dark Day Files,” which goes live on AndrewChampagne.com Monday night).

As far as the pick box is concerned, both the Sharp entry and runner-up Into Mystic were marked as winners. The lone handicapper who had the Sharp entry on top had Into Mystic second, so he would’ve scratched into the wagering “winner” anyway. We agreed that this seemed like the fairest way to go about it. Hopefully, that sits well with everyone, and hopefully, we never have to deal with such a situation again!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: We were alive to Timeline in the Grand Slam, but that one sputtered turning for home as Realm pulled off a big upset. We dropped $24.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I like two horses on today’s program that figure to be bettable prices. I’ll put $5 to win and place on #1 OVER RIDER (race one) and #3 MARCH X PRESS (race eight, turf only). If one wins, it’s probably a profitable day. If both win, we stand to make a really nice chunk of change.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Therapist, Race 2
Longshot: March X Press, Race 8

Over Rider
Bon Raison
Playwright

#1 OVER RIDER: Likely needed his last race and drops way down in class. His best efforts have come in dirt routes, and he could get plenty of pace to rate behind in this spot; #4 BON RAISON: Takes an alarming drop to run here for one of the highest-percentage barns on the circuit. He’s certainly got back races that would win this, but the degree of the drop is a red flag; #7 PLAYWRIGHT: Was second against similar-level foes last time out downstate and makes sense given his early zip. He’s shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well, and that could be a big help.

Therapist
Stoney Bennett (MTO)
Collective Effort

#2 THERAPIST: Is incredibly imposing given his wins over open company. He cruised home against state-breds last time out at Belmont, and his usual race would make him very tough to beat; #7 COLLECTIVE EFFORT: Chased Therapist home last time out and has woken up since being switched to the turf. He figures to be running well late; #1 CODRINGTON: Makes sense if you can toss her last-out effort, and the yielding turf seems like an OK reason to draw a line through the running line. She could appreciate firmer ground and may be a price.

Devils Halo
Ajnadeen
Hollywood Star

#4 DEVILS HALO: Was impressive in his debut before going very fast early on last time out. He still hung on for fourth and was beaten less than two lengths, and less speed being present here can only help him; #2 AJNADEEN: Was second in a swiftly-run allowance downstate. He certainly fits here, although I’m not sure he’s as fast as my top selection; #3 HOLLYWOOD STAR: Spent most of his career running against graded stakes horses and drops into the allowance ranks for his first start since March. His one-turn efforts are sharp, and while he may need the race, there’s a chance this is the route he wants.

Chiclet’s Dream
Chestnut Street
Shanghai Dreams

#5 CHICLET’S DREAM: Was a solid second in her first start since November last time out. She should improve second off the layoff, and she’s half of a very strong one-two punch for trainer Chad Brown; #8 CHESTNUT STREET: Just missed last time out at Belmont, and that race’s winner came right back to win earlier this meet. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that there isn’t a lot of early speed for her to chase; #12 SHANGHAI DREAMS: Was fourth in a solid sprint in her career debut. If she draws in off the AE list, she’ll add Lasix, and this barn does well with stretchouts.

Captain Gaughen
Major Force
Sheikh of Sheikhs

#6 CAPTAIN GAUGHEN: Has won two of his last three and figures to be running well late. His win at this distance last time out was sharp, and there’s plenty of early speed to set up for his late kick; #7 MAJOR FORCE: Comes back to the claiming ranks after being beaten two lengths in an allowance at Belmont. He won two in a row before that, and he’s never really run a bad race on turf; #9 SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS: Has won two in a row and goes to the barn of Eddie Kenneally, who’s very good with new acquisitions. He may be better on turf, but this outfit knows how to win turf sprints, and he’s shown plenty of talent in the past.

London House
Internet of Things
Stop Me If You Can

#6 LONDON HOUSE: Fetched $110,000 at auction earlier this year despite a very average pedigree, and he’s been working lights-out at Belmont. The two five-furlong drills jump off the page, and he’ll be tough if he runs to those works; #9 INTERNET OF THINGS: Has a sharp recent work to his credit ahead of his debut for the powerhouse Chad Brown barn. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because she’s bred to go longer than she’ll run here; #4 STOP ME IF YOU CAN: Adds blinkers and has an experience edge over this group. He was second against similar foes last time out and could improve with the equipment change.

Palinodie
Silver Shaker
Osare

#3 PALINODIE: Hasn’t won since 2016, but she’s run very well against graded stakes company and seems to have a major pace advantage on this group. She could be the lone early speed in the race, and as a result could sit a dream trip; #5 SILVER SHAKER: Has run second three times in a row, and was favored on two of those occasions. An unexpected pace meltdown would certainly help her cause, and the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #6 OSARE: Got up in the last stride to graduate at second asking. Arrogate’s younger half-sister has a right to improve with experience, especially for a high-percentage trainer.

Camorra (MTO)
March X Press
Mentality

#3 MARCH X PRESS: Went 2 for 2 here last year and returns to her favorite route. Further helping her cause is what looks like an abundance of early speed, which could set up for her late-running style; #7 MENTALITY: Was a close-up third against state-bred stakes foes last time out. She could appreciate the cutback in distance, and her tactical speed is a plus (especially since she doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well); #10 ELOWEASEL: Hasn’t won in a while, but has shown an affinity for running well late. This race could set up for that sort of running style, so a minor award is certainly plausible.

Merger of Banks
Giant Boo Boo
Global Impact

#6 MERGER OF BANKS: Is 0 for 14 and will likely be favored, which is usually a horse I go against, but he gets a hugely positive trainer switch from an 0 for 43 conditioner to Rudy Rodriguez. There doesn’t appear to be much other early speed signed on, so this could be a “now or never” spot; #1 GIANT BOO BOO: Has run second in both of his prior dirt starts and makes his first outing for Jeremiah Englehart, who claimed him last time out. The rail draw in such a big field isn’t ideal, but he’s certainly a logical alternative to the likely chalk; #7 GLOBAL IMPACT: Has ramped up the works of late, and the most recent four-furlong drill on the training track says he’s ready to run. This is far from an imposing group, so a first-time starter winning wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/5/18

Posted on August 3, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $724.50

Several times in this section over the past few years, I’ve preached the value of some of the forgotten exotics wagers on the menu. Yesterday, one of them gave bettors a real opportunity to make some money. The fourth-race winner was The Caretaker, who came off the main-track-only list and won at odds of 8/5. The fifth-race winner was Uni, the 5/2 co-favorite in the De La Rose. The $2 daily double paid $17.80.

This may not sound like much, but turning two short prices into that sort of return is a way to create value. You won’t retire off of returns like that, but eagle-eyed handicappers that take a more grind-it-out approach to the game appreciate those opportunities.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I was right to play against Cuarenta, who didn’t run a jump in the third race. However, none of the three horses I boxed in exactas cracked the top two, meaning a loss of $30.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on another forgotten exotic, the Grand Slam. It starts in the seventh, assumes races carded for the turf stay there, and singles best bet #3 TIMELINE in the Alydar Stakes to finish it out. My $2 ticket is as follows: 4,7,8 with 5,6 with 1,3 with 3.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Saturday’s Results: 2 for 9
Meer Results (to date): 37 for 137

Best Bet: Timeline, Race 10
Longshot: Scarf It Down, Race 4

Into Mystic
Sharp entry
Tweedia

#5 INTO MYSTIC: Fetched $650,000 at auction earlier this year and has several sharp works to her credit. She may want a bit longer than this distance, but she could also be precocious enough to win at first asking given her sire, Into Mischief; SHARP ENTRY: I prefer #1 MO WHEELS UP, who’s been working very well of late. Having said that, #1A LADY T N T isn’t without a shot, as she lost all chance early on in her debut; #4 TWEEDIA: Has a very obscure pedigree, but looks the part of a runner in the mornings. We don’t see too many Arkansas-breds at Saratoga, but Brad Cox can win with horses from everywhere, and she may be a bit of a price.

Packed House
Jimmy Jazz
Gambler’s Fallacy

#6 PACKED HOUSE: Didn’t break well last time out and was one-paced going longer. That running style leads me to believe he’ll like two turns, and this seems like a mediocre field for the level; #2 JIMMY JAZZ: Goes two turns for the first time and has been gelded since a fifth-place finish at this level downstate. Jose Lezcano hops aboard, and he has a right to improve at a price; #10 GAMBLER’S FALLACY: May be favored given the powerhouse connections. However, the workouts aren’t anything special, he’ll need to negotiate a trip from the far outside post, and it’s tough to win going two turns right off the bat.

Mighty Zealous
O Shea Can U See
Winston’s Chance

#6 MIGHTY ZEALOUS: Drops down in class after trying stakes foes earlier this meet in a spot that turned up incredibly tough for the level. It helps that he likes a wet track, as there may still be moisture out there following rain earlier in the weekend; #4 O SHEA CAN U SEE: May have figured things out judging by his two straight wire-to-wire wins at Belmont Park. He’ll be prominent early, although he’ll likely have company up front; #1 WINSTON’S CHANCE: Lit up the tote board here last year and returns to the Spa for this event. However, he’s winless in four starts at Finger Lakes, and this seems a bit shorter than his best game.

Scarf It Down
Win With Pride
Top of the Page

#2 SCARF IT DOWN: Hasn’t won in a while, but has been running against tough starter allowance foes and drops in for a tag here. His two starts at this route last season were both sharp, and Luis Saez returning to the saddle can’t be overlooked; #6 WIN WITH PRIDE: Returns to dirt after chasing swifter foes on turf earlier in the meet. He’s won his last two dirt starts against claiming company, and he should be rolling late; #3 TOP OF THE PAGE: Had a rough trip last time out when third against similar going two turns. He cuts back to seven furlongs in his first start for Robertino Diodoro, and he’s won at this distance before.

Disco Partner
Blind Ambition
Holding Gold

#3 DISCO PARTNER: Went further than he wants to go last time out at Belmont and returns to his preferred distance. He won this race two years ago, and he should get a perfect setup given his late-running style and an abundance of early speed in this field; #6 BLIND AMBITION: Also cuts back in distance, and is another that’s had success sprinting on turf at Saratoga. He has tactical speed, but does not need the lead and could get first run on the pace-setters turning for home; #2 HOLDING GOLD: Was a late-running third in the Grade 1 Highlander at Woodbine last time out. He’ll be going the right way in the stretch, but he’s won just one of his last nine starts, so I can’t use him on top.

Dogtag
Tula
Speedy Solution

#7 DOGTAG: Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in this field, and this one’s works impress me more. She’s bred to be a runner, and while debuting going two turns isn’t easy, she’s yet to do anything wrong in her training; #9 TULA: Had an adventurous trip when third in her debut. She was wide early and well back in a race with no early pace, yet still rallied to finish third. She may have gotten a lot out of that race; #3 SPEEDY SOLUTION: Also had a troubled trip in her unveiling, as she was a close-up third in a roughly-run race downstate. John Velazquez hops aboard, and while Wesley Ward isn’t great with stretch-outs, this filly is bred to want as much ground as possible.

What a Catch
Felix in Fabula
American Power

#4 WHAT A CATCH: Drops in for a tag after spending most of his career collecting checks in state-bred stakes races. There’s a chance he’s peaked already, but this is a steep class drop, and I doubt we’ll get the 5-1 morning line given the presence of Pletcher and Velazquez; #7 FELIX IN FABULA: Has yet to run a bad race around one turn and exits a win downstate at this level. He was claimed by Danny Gargan that day, and the recent works indicate he’s ready to run; #8 AMERICAN POWER: Snuck by the $25,000 level last time out, winning by nearly six lengths for aggressive connections. This is a step up in class, but he’s got two wins and a second in three one-turn outings and is a threat if he can repeat his last-out effort.

Bad Student (MTO)
Roman Approval
Decisive Triumph

#5 ROMAN APPROVAL: Drops way down in class after two failed tries against Grade 3 company. He’s got one way of going, and if he gets an easy lead, he could get brave against a lesser group than the ones he’s faced of late; #6 DECISIVE TRIUMPH: Exits a listed stakes race at Delaware Park where they flew home in the final quarter-mile. He’s got plenty of experience going this far, but he hasn’t won since late-2016, so it’s tough to endorse him on top with much confidence; #10 MASTER PLAN: Has back form that would trounce these, but his last three races haven’t been pretty, which explains the class drop. Two of those races were on dirt, though, and he could wake up if this stays on the grass. DIRT SELECTIONS: BAD STUDENT, HARDLY A SECRET, HALLOWEEN HORROR.

Clutch Cargo (MTO)
Team Valor entry
Uncle Gio

TEAM VALOR ENTRY: I prefer #1 PILLAR MOUNTAIN, who had every right to need his return race last time out. I think he’ll step forward in his second start off the bench, and this distance could suit him; #3 UNCLE GIO: Adds blinkers after having won two of his last four starts. He was a bit compromised last time by a fairly slow pace, and the blinkers could get him more involved early; #2 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW: Missed by a head at this level last time out downstate. He’s got plenty of experience at this distance, but has settled for minor awards more often than not. DIRT SELECTIONS: CLUTCH CARGO, CONVICT PIKE, HOLIDAY BONUS.

R10

Timeline
Outplay
Patch

#3 TIMELINE: Was second behind Sunny Ridge last time out, but looms large in this spot as the main speed in the race. Additionally, he loves a wet track, which he could get in this spot; #2 OUTPLAY: Won the Curlin Stakes here last year and cuts back in distance after tiring in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He’s got some early speed, but has shown he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well; #5 PATCH: Will be well-supported at the windows, though for reasons that have nothing to do with his ability. He could come running late, but both of his wins have come in one-turn races, and it’s fair to wonder if that’s the trip he wants.

R11

Naples Legacy (MTO)
Safe With Me
Samara

#10 SAFE WITH ME: Was second behind a next-out winner last time out downstate. The outside post is less than ideal, but she’s won at this route and should be running well late beneath Javier Castellano; #2 SAMARA: Comes back to the appropriate level after a failed try against starter allowance foes. Her races two and three back were solid, and repeats of those races would definitely put her in the mix; #9 JAZZY JUDER: Was fourth in the race my top pick exits, which doubled as her first start in more than 10 months. She could improve second off the bench for sharp connections. DIRT SELECTIONS: NAPLES LEGACY, MISS SIZZLE, PARANOIA.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/4/18

Posted on August 2, 2018 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $754.50

When I was a kid, there was one summer where former New York Daily News racing writer/handicapper Bill Finley ran so terribly in the “Battle of Saratoga” that he ran out of money before the meet was over. As a kid, I laughed pretty hard at that and wondered how it could happen.

Well, given the slump I’ve been in in this section since the meet started, I get it now. I don’t think we’ll get to the point where we run out of funds, but some cold streaks do make it easy to see how that may happen. If there’s consolation, it’s that I heated up as last year’s meet rolled along, so hopefully things will begin to pick up sooner rather than later.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: An attempt to get some value out of Sudden Surprise fizzled early, when multi-race exotics horses were nowhere in the second race. We dropped $27.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take a stand against likely third-race favorite #6 CUARENTA, who debuts for a tag that’s 25% of his 2017 purchase price. That hits me as a big red flag. I’ll box #5 ROGUE NATION, #7 ONE MORE TOM, and #9 PRETERNATURAL in $5 exactas.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Friday’s Results: 2 for 10
Meet Results (to date): 35 for 128

Best Bet: Business Cycle, Race 6
Longshot: Mr. Cub, Race 11

Moss entry (MTO)
Souper Tapit
Hembree

#2 SOUPER TAPIT: Ran well in his return to the races last month at Churchill. When he’s right, he’s a stakes-caliber runner on any surface, and his pedigree hints that he may be getting even better; #4 HEMBREE: Hasn’t run a bad race in a more than a year and exits a win in a swiftly-run allowance downstate. He figures to be prominent early, and he hasn’t finished out of the top two in three local starts; #3 BIRD’S EYE VIEW: Was beaten a half-length by a strong runner last time out and has kept strong company in the past. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want even more ground than he gets in this race. DIRT SELECTIONS: MOSS ENTRY, SOUPER TAPIT, FUNDY’S TIDE.

Noble Nebraskan
Brown entry
Medina Ridge

#4 NOBLE NEBRASKAN: Is bred to be a top-class runner. He’s by promising young sire Noble Mission, his second dam is G1 winner Honest Lady, and his third dam is Toussaud, the dam of Belmont winner/top sire Empire Maker; BROWN ENTRY: #1 SPIRIT ANIMAL is bred to like turf and is a threat if he draws in, while #1A STANDARD DEVIATION fetched $450,000 at auction, has trained like he could be a runner, and may be favored if the race is switched to the main track; #6 MEDINA RIDGE: Is out of a dam who won multiple graded stakes races going long on the grass. This barn isn’t necessarily known for having horses ready right away, but has had success with firsters on turf. DIRT SELECTIONS: STANDARD DEVIATION, SOCIAL PARANOIA, BRONXVILLE.

Preternatural
Rogue Nation
One More Tom

#9 PRETERNATURAL: Drops in for a tag and cuts back to a sprint, which seems like the trip he wants. His debut effort going short wasn’t bad, and that race’s winner has since run well twice against allowance foes; #5 ROGUE NATION: Debuts in this spot for a trainer that can win with first-time starters at this level. His workouts appear solid, and running to those drills may be enough to beat what seems like an underwhelming group; #7 ONE MORE TOM: Has plenty of seasoning and runs for a tag for the first time. His lack of early speed is a concern, but Javier Castellano signing on can’t be ignored.

Broman entry
Vitsal
Not So Quiet Man

BROMAN ENTRY: #1 FAST GETAWAY took to the turf last time out, when he closed to break his maiden at Belmont Park. He merits respect on the lawn, while #1A THE CARETAKER seems like the most logical selection if the race is taken off the turf; #2 VITSAL: Is certainly fast enough to win this race, but I’ll take a shot against him. He’s found trouble in each of his last three starts, and that trend is worrisome for a horse that’s drawn the rail; #10 NOT SO QUIET MAN: Has run well twice at Saratoga and comes in off a win at Monmouth Park. This is a class hike for him, but this barn doesn’t ship to NYRA tracks to sight-see. DIRT SELECTIONS: THE CARETAKER, CALL ME A STAR, BELLEVILLE SPRING.

Precieuse
Uni
On Leave

#5 PRECIEUSE: Won a Group 1 in France two back and gets Lasix for her American debut. This isn’t a bad group, but it’s far from what she’s been running against overseas, and it seems like she’s been working well; #1 UNI: Has been working her way back since coming up sick prior to the Grade 1 Gamely, which she had to scratch out of. On her best day, she can certainly win this, but there’s a chance she needs the race; #7 ON LEAVE: Has been running against some of the best female turf horses in the country and was most recently seen running fifth in the Grade 1 Just A Game. Her best race would make her competitive, but she may be a hair past her peak.

Business Cycle
Hersh
Alkhaatam

#5 BUSINESS CYCLE: Was second in his debut late last year and hasn’t run since, but he’s been working incredibly well for Chad Brown. A repeat of that debut effort would make him very tough to beat; #4 HERSH: Rallied to finish second in his debut last month. He had some trouble that day and could step forward at second asking; #1 ALKHAATAM: Was bet to 2-1 odds in the Grade 2 Remsen, but ran fourth behind Catholic Boy and hasn’t been seen since. He’s got some solid works to his credit, but he’s bred to go much further, so this seems like a prep.

Justice of War
Brown entry
Mucho

#2 JUSTICE OF WAR: Fetched $550,000 at auction and goes out for one of the top trainer/jockey combinations to this point in the meet. He’s got a few very strong gate works that hint he has serious talent; BROWN ENTRY: While #1 FULLNESS OF TIME has some things to recommend, I actually prefer #1A AHEAD OF PLAN, who needs some luck to draw in off the AE list. The latter hammered for $475,000 despite a modest pedigree and has a number of eye-catching workouts; #6 MUCHO: Ran well to be second behind Whiskey Echo in his debut, and that rival went on to run an OK third in the Grade 3 Sanford. Bill Mott’s horses tend to get better with experience, and that experience could help him given the abundance of debuting runners here.

Separationofpowers
Classy Act
Mia Mischief

#6 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS: Gets a tepid top pick in a puzzling renewal of the Grade 1 Test. She missed the break in the Grade 3 Victory Ride, yet rallied to be beaten less than two lengths. She should take a big step forward here with a cleaner trip; #4 CLASSY ACT: Ran a colossal race in defeat in the Victory Ride, when she helped set a very fast early pace, turned back her early rivals, and was nipped by a huge longshot. She’ll likely be prominent again in this race; #7 MIA MISCHIEF: Faded to finish fifth as the favorite in the Victory Ride, but her lesser races have come off of layoffs. She could be more fit here, and if she is, she’s absolutely good enough to win.

Backyard Heaven
Mind Your Biscuits
Diversify

#2 BACKYARD HEAVEN: Bounced badly when sixth in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, and I’m choosing to draw a line through that race. If he runs back to the Grade 2 Alysheba, he may be the horse to beat, and we could get a bit of a price based on the last-out clunker; #4 MIND YOUR BISCUITS: Tries nine furlongs for the first time after just missing in the Grade 1 Met Mile. His pedigree says he doesn’t want to go this far, but you can’t blame the connections for trying given the purse and the likely race shape that could favor his closing kick; #6 DIVERSIFY: Turned in a huge performance in the Grade 2 Suburban, where he smashed several of today’s foes and earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. That was easily his best performance to date, though, and given the other speed in the field and lack of any value here, I’ll try to beat him.

R10

Santa Monica
Mom’s On Strike
Lottie

#5 SANTA MONICA: Has won two of three starts since coming to America and most recently took the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She beat a pretty good group that day, and a similar performance here would likely make her a formidable foe; #2 MOM’S ON STRIKE: Has won five of her last seven starts and was beaten just two lengths in the Grade 2 New York, a race whose second and third-place finishers have already come back to win. Joe Sharp has gotten off to a great start at the meet, and she’s shown she can get this distance; #8 LOTTIE: May be a cut below these, but is one of only a few that’s ever shown early speed. She was up close throughout last time out, and a similar trip here seems likely.

R11

Ticonderoga
Mr. Cub
Zennor

#2 TICONDEROGA: Gets my top selection in a very deep renewal of the Lure Stakes. He’s kept tremendous company throughout his career, and I think he’s significantly better around two turns; #3 MR. CUB: Was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 2 Wise Dan, and with #8 VOODOO SONG likely scratching in favor of next weekend’s Grade 1 Fourstardave, this one figures to be the main early speed. He could get an easy trip, and such a journey would make him an overlay at his morning line price; #7 ZENNOR: Won three in a row, including this race last year, before being sidelined. If he’s back to that form, he’s a contender, but between the long layoff and the jockey switch, I’m treading fairly lightly.