Andrew Champagne

INTERLUDE: The 2018 Horse Racing Media and Friends Royal Rumble

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Sunday may not seem like a landmark day, but on that night, the 2018 Royal Rumble will take place. Yep, this is a wrestling/horse racing cross-post. Hide the children.

Anyway, because I’m constantly looking for cutting-edge ideas that will revolutionize the business/humor my colleagues and I, I have assembled a 30-man field for the first-ever Horse Racing Media and Friends Royal Rumble. This field is comprised of friends (and, in one case, family) in the business who fulfill one of the following criteria.

1) Is a wrestling fan.

2) Is a friend of mine.

3) Can take a joke.

This article acts as a cheat sheet to get to know the entrants a bit better, complete with reasons on why each of them will inevitably be thrown over the top rope and eliminated from the match. The list of entrants is largely randomized, with one or two exceptions you’ll understand when you read it.

1) Andrew Champagne
Credentials: Web producer for DRF, handicapper for The Saratogian, 128 winners at a single Saratoga meeting
Most likely to be eliminated when: Someone refuses to be impressed by his “best handicapper never to win a Beemie Award” gimmick.

2) Pete Aiello
Credentials: Gulfstream Park track announcer, antics expert
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s unable to accommodate an event that doesn’t have an eight-minute post drag and misses his scheduled entry point.

3) John DaSilva
Credentials: Former New York Post racing writer
Most likely to be eliminated when: A Champagne hurls him over the top rope due to the $70 debt he owes for a Kentucky Derby future bet.

4) Jay Privman
Credentials: DRF writer
Most likely to be eliminated when: He gets distracted by a whiff of King Umberto’s pizza someone snuck into the arena.

5) Todd Schrupp
Credentials: TVG host
Most likely to be eliminated when: WWE Hall of Famer Jerry “The King” Lawler returns to finish what he started.

6) Frank Mirahmadi
Credentials: NYRA/Monmouth Park track announcer
Most likely to be eliminated when: The next entrant takes advantage of decades of pent-up anger due to Frank’s impressions.

7) D. Wayne Lukas
Credentials: Hall of Fame trainer, and we need a surprise entrant somewhere (this IS the Rumble, after all)
Most likely to be eliminated when: A sheik calls and gives him $10 million for a sale happening RIGHT NOW.

8) Nick Hines
Credentials: Horse racing jack-of-all-trades (owner, former trainer, TVG host)
Most likely to be eliminated when: His further attempts to channel Hulk Hogan go horribly wrong.

9) Dan Illman
Credentials: DRF writer, DRFTV host/producer
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s rendered immobile by accidentally swallowing the Great Muta mist he snuck into the ring.

10) Ed DeRosa
Credentials: Churchill Downs/TwinSpires writer/handicapper
Most likely to be eliminated when: He fails to realize grids are not effective weapons in this setting.

11) Matt Carothers
Credentials: TVG host/analyst
Most likely to be eliminated when: Someone messes up his hair and drains his competitive mojo. (NOTE: Ren Carothers would be far more fearsome in this setting, but she’s currently in foal.)

12) Danny Kovoloff
Credentials: TVG marketing guru
Most likely to be eliminated when: Someone is not impressed by the photos of his nine hundred cats.

13) Bradley Weisbord
Credentials: Owner/bloodstock agent
Most likely to be eliminated when: Everyone in the Rumble (including the people that have not come out yet) teams up to toss him out for being the first person to publicly suggest a Breeders’ Cup Derby in 2014.

14) Joe Nevills
Credentials: DRF breeding writer, fellow wrestling degenerate, friend-enabler
Most likely to be eliminated when: Depression sets in upon realizing that the Rumble is taking place on the site of Mount Pleasant Meadows.

15) Sam Hollingsworth
Credentials: The Saratogian handicapper
Most likely to be eliminated when: Fatigue sets in, given that he’s been chasing around a baby for a year.

16) Tony Podlaski
Credentials: Saratoga press box empresario/sergeant-at-arms
Most likely to be eliminated when: Pedro the Press Box Masterchef shows up with hot dogs.

17) Darin Zoccali
Credentials: TVG key accounts manager/handicapper
Most likely to be eliminated when: Someone yanks on his hair, revealing he’s been wearing a wig all this time.

18) @shamiamnot
Credentials: Twitter barbarian, Beemie Awards contributor
Most likely to be eliminated when: A hit squad hired by Jeff Ruby and/or the “Bring Chrome Home” loonies takes him out on his way to the ring.

19) Norm Casse
Credentials: Trainer
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s compromised by a temper tantrum spurred by TVG’s latest “man crush” list not including him.

20) Andy Serling
Credentials: NYRA host/handicapper
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s thrown into a gold rail at ringside (which causes him to bet against himself in next year’s edition).

21) Justin Horowitz
Credentials: TVG key accounts manager/handicapper
Most likely to be eliminated when: He realizes he can bet against himself on the exchange.

22) Dave Champagne
Credentials: Father of the scribe
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s overcome by an attack of sheer indifference to this endeavor.

23) Mike Joyce
Credentials: TVG host/analyst
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s turned away from the ring on the grounds of looking nothing like his Twitter avatar.

24) Tom Quigley
Credentials: Santa Anita simulcast host/VIP liaison
Most likely to be eliminated when: He’s ganged up on by the East Coast-based competitors for his “West is best” belief.

25) Jose Contreras
Credentials: TVG host/analyst
Most likely to be eliminated when: Trauma sets in upon realizing he’s on the wrong side of the cheese/no cheese debate.

26) Caleb Keller
Credentials: TVG host/analyst
Most likely to be eliminated when: Someone yanks on one of his skinny ties and uses it to hurl him into the third row.

27) Jason Beem
Credentials: BARN host, Beemie Awards creator
Most likely to be eliminated when: Someone outdoes him in a “salad dance” dance-off.

28) Gino Buccola
Credentials: World-class handicapper/podcast host
Most likely to be eliminated when: He realizes the Dodgers, Lakers, or USC Trojans are on.

29) Dave Weaver
Credentials: TVG host/analyst, creator of the Ice Cold Exacta
Most likely to be eliminated when: Todd Schrupp sticks around and heckles him throughout the match, allowing someone else to sneak up from behind and throw him out.

30) Andy Asaro
Credentials: Horseplayer advocate
Most likely to be eliminated when: He throws himself out in protest upon realizing the takeout of the event is incredibly high (hey, we have to make money on this somehow).

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Santa Anita (1/15/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I’ll be at Santa Anita Monday afternoon for their special Martin Luther King Day program. In addition to it being “Dollar Day” with cheap food and drinks (though I’ll pass on the $2 hot dogs in favor of a sandwich from one of the carving stations), it’s an interesting card, and I think there are many opportunities to make some money. I’ve got a pair of Pick Four tickets, and I’ll dive into both sequences next!

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 5,6
R3: 1,4,7,8
R4: 6,7,8
R5: 2,8

48 Bets, $24

Right off the bat, I think there’s a way to take a stand against a horse that may be a heavy favorite. If we can get that horse beat, that will drastically improve our potential payoff.

#4 TRAPPER PEAK just missed at this level in his debut, where he rallied furiously to fall short by a neck. I know I’m supposed to like him here, but I’ve got my doubts. That race was in October, and he only has three published workouts since then. To me, that’s a substantial red flag. Additionally, this owner/trainer has another one in the race. If Trapper Peak was sitting on “go,” why is #5 THE ITALIAN (more on him later) in the field, too?

I’m two-deep without using the chalk. If he beats me, he beats me, but I prefer The Italian, who chased the ultra-promising Ax Man in his debut and is wheeled right back against lesser company. I’m also using #6 RISKY PROPOSITION, a first-time starter trained by Peter Miller. The Del Mar works aren’t great, but note the one recent drill away from there. It was a five-furlong bullet at San Luis Rey, and that leads me to believe he simply doesn’t like the track he’s been working at.

If we get out of the first leg, we’ll be four-deep in the third race, a maiden event for Cal-breds. #4 FAVERSHAM is California Chrome’s younger brother, and my guess is he’ll go off favored. I’m using him, but I need others on the ticket as well. #1 BORN ON THE BAYOU has some strong works ahead of his debut, #7 YES I’M READY has flashed ample early speed in his first two starts, and #8 VIOLENT RIDGE has also run well twice ahead of his 3-year-old debut.

The fourth is a tricky $25,000 claiming event for older sprinters. I’m using #7 ZAP AGAIN and #8 MISTER MOJO, who both hit the board last time out in a starter allowance at Los Alamitos. However, my top pick is #6 REVEREND AL, who drops down in class and should get an ideal setup. There’s a ton of early speed signed on, and this one has shown an ability to sit off the pace in the past. Rafael Bejarano signs on, and I’ll gladly take 6-1 odds if I can get them.

The fifth is the first of two downhill turf sprints on the card. I hate betting horses that haven’t tried this route, but that’s the situation I’m forced into, as none of the eight runners in this field have done this before. #2 MOVE OVER ran some OK races in Europe and gets Lasix in his American debut, while #8 COLONEL CASH gets Flavien Prat and had a rough trip when fourth in his first start on grass last time out. I’ll use those two in the payoff leg and hope that’s enough to get me paid.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 2,4,8
R7: 3,4,5,8
R8: 1,2,4
R9: 6,11

72 Bets, $36

I thought this was the type of sequence that could have payoff potential even without huge prices. If we can get a few middle-priced horses home, this could pay a surprising amount.

The sixth is a maiden claimer for 3-year-old sprinters. #4 GEM OF A GUY may be favored on the class drop, but he didn’t do much running in his debut, so I can’t trust him much. My top pick is actually #2 IMAGINEIAMFASTEST, who gets an aggressive gate rider and is bred to have some ability. He’s 6-1, and if he runs to the gate work on December 8th, I think he’s got a big shot. I’ll also throw in #8 JIMMYTHISNJIMTHAT, who also has some swift works on the tab ahead of his debut.

The seventh is the Grade 3 Megahertz. My top pick is #3 MADAME STRIPES, who gets Kent Desormeaux back in the saddle and has every right to turn the tables on #4 INSTA ERMA, who nosed her back in October. Those two grade out best in here, but I have two others on my ticket I’m using for a few reasons. #5 THUNDERING SKY and #8 CHOCOLATE COATED are both not without chances in here, and if I go 3-for-4 without having them on the ticket, it’ll be a long ride home from Arcadia. I’ve got room in the budget to add them on my ticket, so while I’ll key Madame Stripes in other wagers, I’ll buy some coverage here.

The eighth is an optional claiming event that’s drawn a stakes-quality field. #2 DONWORTH was exceptional last time out in his second start since being claimed by Peter Miller. A repeat effort probably wins, but I can’t just draw lines through the previous batch of races that were total stinkers. I’m also using #1 HOT SEAN, who may be ready to run in his third start off a long layoff, and #4 COLONIST, who comes back to dirt and runs against non-graded stakes company for the first time since May.

We’ll finish off the card with a sprint down the hill. I almost singled #11 SUNDAY PROPHET, who draws favorably and exits a live race against males (that day’s runner-up, Mesut, was a nice-looking winner down the hill earlier in the meet). Sunday Prophet is also a half-sister to a horse named Watch This Cat, who has run several strong races at this unique route. However, I also opted to use #6 RED SHELBY, whose debut came at this route and wasn’t bad. I’m tossing the race two back given the long layoff after that effort, and her return race going longer at Del Mar was sharp.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Fair Grounds, Santa Anita (1/13/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

Saturday is the first big day of the season at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby points are on the line in the Lecomte, which has drawn a full field of horses from across the country. Additionally, I also found the Saturday card at Santa Anita to be an interesting puzzle, and I’ve got my fair share of action there as well.

Without further ado, let’s get to it!

FAIR GROUNDS

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 8,12
R3: 1,3,7
R4: ALL
R5: 4

72 Bets, $36

In both of these Pick Four sequences, I’m hoping to bolster value on shorter-priced singles by finding some prices early. This is especially so in the early Pick Four, where my single may be the shortest price on this entire card.

The second race is an allowance event on turf that drew a full field. #12 MAGIC JOAN would’ve probably been a single for me with a better post. Her debut was very good, and she followed that up with a strong second in a swiftly-run race over Aqueduct’s fairly-slow turf course. However, I’m also throwing in a big price. #8 NUTCRACKER SUITE makes her North American debut and adds Lasix, which is often a huge addition. The works two and three back hint at talent, and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if she was ready to run in her North American unveiling.

The third is a maiden race for 3-year-olds, and while I respect #3 FASCILITATOR and am using him, my top pick is an 8-1 shot. #7 NOLA WIN was second in his debut, and trainer Dallas Stewart’s horses aren’t usually fully cranked at first asking. The winner that day is an exciting prospect, and the most recent workout (third-fastest of 144 at the distance that day) says he’s taken a step forward since that race. I’ll also throw in #1 NEW COLOSSUS despite the rail draw. His workouts are sharp, and he’s got the pedigree to be very good (his second dam is a full sister to General Challenge).

Singling late in the sequence means I can buy coverage in the fourth, which I found to be the toughest race of the day. This is a 12-horse field, and I need to use all of them. The morning line favorite is 4-1, which should tell you all you need to know about this group. Not much would surprise me, and hopefully we’ll get a price home.

The fifth race is the Duncan Kenner, and my single is 4/5 favorite #4 YOCKEY’S WARRIOR, who’s simply a different horse at Fair Grounds. He’s won five of his last six races, with the lone loss coming in a Grade 3 at Keeneland. This isn’t a bad field, but a repeat of his last-out victory would make him extremely difficult to beat.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #7

R7: 1,2,5,7
R8: 1,2,3,5,6,9
R9: 5,10,12
R10: 5

72 Bets, $36

This late Pick Four features four stakes races, including the Grade 3 Lecomte. As mentioned, my strategy is to get to my best bet of the sequence, which I’ve singled in the payoff leg.

The seventh is the Silverbulletday for 3-year-old fillies, and for an ungraded stakes race, it came up VERY tough. Three horses ran in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and I’m using them all. However, I also need to throw in #5 STELLAR MOON. She’s bred up and down for two turns, and she finally gets such a route here. At her price, and with her breeding, I need to have her on my ticket.

The eighth is the Colonel E.R. Bradley on turf, and like most of the grass races on the card, I thought this was wide-open. My top pick is #5 TOWER OF TEXAS, who didn’t have a great trip when third in the Grade 3 Tropical Turf. With more racing luck, he may have won that day, and I need to use him. However, with such a big field, I also wouldn’t be shocked with another troubled trip, so I need to spread.

The ninth is the Lecomte, and I’m using the two likely favorites plus a middle-priced horse. #10 INSTILLED REGARD ran well in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, and #12 PRINCIPE GUILHERME is 2-for-2 and has yet to be tested. In addition to those two, #5 KOWBOY KARMA also merits respect. His longer races are fine, and the Larry Jones barn must be respected in these spots.

All of this leads up to the Louisiana Stakes, where I’m singling a horse that could have a big year. That’s #5 THE PLAYER, who won the Grade 2 Fayette two back before a misfire in the Grade 1 Clark. He’s run up against better horses recently, and the work tab is very impressive. He’s definitely the horse to beat, and with his tactical speed, he could sit a dream trip just off the speed and get first run when the real running starts.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #2

R2: 2,4,5
R3: 1,3,5
R4: 6,7
R5: 3,4,7

54 Bets, $27

Usually, I give out an early Pick Five ticket. However, I simply can’t give one out that’s within a budget I feel comfortable with. With that in mind, I’ve opted to focus on the early Pick Four instead.

The second race is a maiden claiming event. #2 SOUL SOUND may go off favored, but I have my doubts. She’s not the only class-dropper in this field. #4 TOPAZ TIME has back races that make her competitive, and #5 DEL MAR DIVA gets a positive rider switch and sports a flashy recent workout over this track.

I think Bob Baffert wins the third race. The question is, with which one of his three runners? I’m using all of them, and this ticket may come down in cost a bit, as Baffert tends to scratch some runners of his in this sort of situation. Of the three I used, I’m most intrigued by #1 CURLY’S ROCKET, who has worked well following a disappointing debut. The rail draw doesn’t help, but he may be mature enough to overcome it.

The fourth race is a fun turf event with several stakes-quality runners. My top pick is #7 UNAPOLOGETIC, who gets Mike Smith in this spot. He generally runs the same race every time out, and he was beaten two lengths last time out by Editore, who won his next start after that before finishing third in the Grade 2 San Gabriel. I’m also using #6 A RED TIE DAY, who loves this turf course. He’s won just once since October of 2016, but several of his starts in that timespan have come against much better competition.

The fifth is a $12,500 claimer, and it’s drawn a lot of familiar faces from the circuit. I’m three-deep, and I’m using three logical horses. #3 MR. SHOOK drops way down in class, #4 DUKES UP makes his first start for new trainer Doug O’Neill, and #7 CITY STEEL returns to his favorite track and will run for his lowest tag since at least 2016.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 2,7
R7: 1,5,7,10
R8: 2
R9: 8,9

16 Bets, $8

My strategy here is pretty simple, as I’m attempting to extract some value from a horse that will likely be an odds-on favorite. I am, however, using some prices elsewhere, so there’s a chance we get a solid return on investment.

The sixth is a sprint down the hill, and I like a 6-1 shot on top. #2 DOC CURLIN has never run a bad race at this route, and the addition of Evin Roman is a big plus. I’ll also use #7 MOONLIGHT DRIVE, a horse I’ve always liked since his flashy win in his North American debut. He’s hit the board in a pair of graded stakes races, and the horses he’s lost to are high-class thoroughbreds. While Doc Curlin is my top pick, and a horse I was admittedly tempted to single based on the price, I couldn’t go forward without using this Bob Baffert trainee as well.

The seventh is a bottom-level claiming event for older horses going six furlongs. #10 LAMBO LUXX may be favored, but I don’t think he’s a cinch. He didn’t beat much last time out at Los Alamitos, and his most recent race here at Santa Anita (which came over a track considerably slower than the Santa Anita strip he’s won over in the past) was not good. I’ll use him, but I want some coverage elsewhere. #1 PAT THE BEAR has tons of early speed, #5 CHROMIUM has improved since dropping to this level two back, and #7 PRIVATE PROSPECT takes a big drop off of a controversial race Sunday.

My single will be a popular one. #2 MAJESTIC HEAT looms large in the Grade 2 La Canada, and she’s emerged as a high-quality dirt horse since trying the surface two back. At some point, she’ll face the heavyweights of this division, but this group seems a cut below those. If she doesn’t win, I lose, and I imagine many tickets go up in smoke.

We finish the card with another race down the hill. This one is for $25,000 claimers, and my top pick takes a steep drop in class. #8 COASTLINE was beaten less than two lengths two back in the Grade 3 Eddie D, and some of his best races have come at this route. His best race wins this, but just in case he’s tailing off, I’m also using #9 GENERAL IKE, who did everything but win in his lone downhill race to date, which came for a $40,000 tag. He didn’t break well last time out at Del Mar, and the outside post position is a big plus.

2017 Eclipse Awards: My Ballot, Explanations, and Abstentions

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

I was accepted into the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters a few months ago, and with that came my first-ever Eclipse Awards ballot. I’m sure there are some people out there who are shaking their heads that I have a vote (I can think of at least two), but the meaning of this process isn’t lost on me. It’s an honor to be able to cast a vote for horse racing’s most prestigious awards, and this post will serve as an explanation for how I voted.

I’ve broken the awards down into several categories, and horses and humans that earned second and third-place votes will be in parentheses after my chosen winner. Like every year, there were some divisions that were easier than others, and there were a few where I could completely understand differing viewpoints. As you’ll see, there were two divisions where I simply could not bring myself to cast a vote, and I’ll discuss why when we get there.

On with the ballot!

THE LOCKS

Horse of the Year: Gun Runner (World Approval, Forever Unbridled)

Three-Year-Old Filly: Abel Tasman (Unique Bella, Paradise Woods)

Older Dirt Male: Gun Runner (Arrogate, Roy H)

Older Dirt Female: Forever Unbridled (Stellar Wind, Songbird)

Male Sprinter: Roy H (El Deal, Drefong)

Male Turf Horse: World Approval (Talismanic, Beach Patrol)

Apprentice Jockey: Evin Roman (Hector Diaz, Katie Clawson)

Gun Runner assured himself multiple trophies when he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic to cap off a stellar campaign. Had Arrogate not turned in one of the most impressive performances in recent horse racing history in the Dubai World Cup, he’d have managed one of the most dominant campaigns by an older horse in the past 20 years.

I was probably more impressed with Roy H’s campaign than some of my fellow voters. Had Drefong not run erratically after throwing Mike Smith in the Bing Crosby, the eventual Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner probably wins that race, which would have given him an undefeated season with three Grade 1 victories (plus a Grade 2 score). I even debated putting him second above Arrogate in the Older Dirt Male category, but ultimately decided against it.

THE TWO-YEAR-OLDS

Two-Year-Old Male: Good Magic (Bolt d’Oro, Sporting Chance)

Two-Year-Old Female: Rushing Fall (Caledonia Road, Moonshine Memories)

Both of these are up for some debate. I spent considerable time mulling over my 2-year-old male vote, but ultimately went with the impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I understand Bolt d’Oro raced very wide most of the way, but even if he’d been closer to the rail, my opinion is that Good Magic was probably still best that day. I also wanted to give an honorable mention to Sporting Chance, the Grade 1 Hopeful winner that has not run since. That proved to be a very live race, and he won despite ducking out badly late. Hopefully, we get to see him step forward in 2018.

I felt much more comfortable with my 2-year-old female vote. Caledonia Road was impressive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but I honestly believe this crop of dirt fillies was not that special. Rushing Fall showcased a turn of foot we don’t often see, and there’s a real chance the field she beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf was better than the one Caledonia Road dispatched.

PICK YOUR POISON

Three-Year-Old Male: West Coast (Always Dreaming, Oscar Performance)

I’m about to make a pretty unpopular statement. Had West Coast not run a decent third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I would have likely abstained from this category. Once Oscar Performance faltered in two races against older horses late in the year, this came down to West Coast and Always Dreaming. The former won the Travers and Pennsylvania Derby emphatically, but skipped the Triple Crown races. The latter was brilliant at his best when winning the Florida and Kentucky Derbies, but head-scratchingly awful at his worst when nowhere in the Preakness and Travers.

Thankfully, West Coast finished in the same zip code as your likely Horse of the Year. In doing so, he did enough for me to be able to feel OK about casting my vote for him. Having said that, I’m a believer that there are some years, and some categories, where no horse is good enough to deserve an Eclipse Award. Keep this in mind later.

THE SENTIMENTAL CHOICE (BUT ALSO THE RIGHT ONE)

Female Turf Horse: Lady Eli (Wuheida, Off Limits)

There’ll be one heck of a Hall of Fame debate coming up in a few years with regard to Lady Eli. She won big races at ages two, three, four, and five, and not only survived laminitis, but came back to perform at racing’s highest level. This year, she won Grade 1 races on both coasts, which is not an easy thing to do.

This won’t be a unanimous vote. Lady Eli misfired badly in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, a race in which she suffered an injury. Having said that, the winner of that race, Wuheida, raced just once in North America, and there isn’t nearly enough in the way of qualified other contenders for this award. To demonstrate that, Off Limits got my third-place vote despite having just one Grade 1 victory, which came in the Matriarch late in the year at Del Mar.

Even with the untimely dud, it’s tough to see any horse but Lady Eli winning this award. No other horse did enough to win it, and her story certainly doesn’t hurt. Should her story matter when it comes to Eclipse Awards and Hall of Fame consideration? That’s a question for another column.

TWO HUMAN AWARDS

Breeder: Clearsky (Besilu, WinStar)

Jockey: Jose Ortiz (Mike Smith, Irad Ortiz, Jr.)

Clearsky Farms bred Eclipse finalists Arrogate and Abel Tasman, as well as Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Untamed Domain. That’s a heck of a resume right there, especially for a farm that’s fairly small in size, and I couldn’t look past it.

I went with Jose Ortiz over Mike Smith for a few reasons. Ortiz rode day-in and day-out for the entire year and established a consistent body of work few could match. Mike Smith had a phenomenal year, and he’s established a judicious strategy of picking mounts that extends his career deep into his 50’s. However, that judicious strategy works against him when compared to someone who takes very few days off. That being said, I wouldn’t be opposed to him passing along his map to the fountain of youth.

BOY, WAS I WRONG

Owner: Klaravich/Lawrence (Sol Kumin, Juddmonte)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Chad Brown, Bob Baffert)

My top pick for this year’s best owner didn’t even make the list of finalists, and neither did my chosen runner-up (more on him in the next paragraph). The finalists are Juddmonte, Godolphin, and Winchell/Three Chimneys, and more than any other category, this one got some scrutiny on Twitter when the finalists were announced.

One note on Kumin: We need new owners who have his apparent passion for the sport. He’s bought in on a lot of horses, and many have had success at the highest level. However, I couldn’t, in good conscience, vote him as the top owner in the country this year. It doesn’t sit well with me that we don’t exactly know how much of each horse he owns. Partnerships have their merits, sure, but if the situation is this murky, how can one partner be deemed more valuable than others who may be involved?

Pletcher wasn’t even a finalist. I understand why, but here’s my thinking. Pletcher won trainer’s titles at Gulfstream and Saratoga, and he also won two-thirds of the Triple Crown with Always Dreaming and Tapwrit. It hurts that his barn went fairly cold to end the year, but I thought what he did in the early part of the year made up for it.

BOY, YOU’LL THINK I’M WRONG

Steeplechase Horse: ABSTAIN

Like many of my fellow voters, I simply didn’t see enough jump races to be able to have an informed opinion. Rather than guess, I’ll leave this one to the experts.

Female Sprinter: ABSTAIN

(ducking the tomatoes and objects you’re throwing at me)

Time to explain the most controversial part of my ballot. I am not against honoring the top female sprinter in the country. However, I’m far from convinced we had a single top-tier runner in that division. Let’s run through the list, shall we?

Had the year ended in mid-August, Paulassilverlining would have been a solid choice. However, she misfired in both the Ballerina and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. A single in-the-money finish in either event probably would have made her the recipient of my vote, but I simply couldn’t vote for her given when the switch flipped and how big the difference in form was.

Similar can be said for Lady Aurelia. I know most of her campaign came outside the United States. Had she run well in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint against males, though, it would have been difficult to vote against her. Given how much Paulassilverlining tailed off, she probably didn’t even have to win. However, for the first time in her career, she ran a clunker, and given her lack of American-based success, I couldn’t vote for her.

Unique Bella? She won the Grade 1 La Brea, but her only victory against older competition came in a Grade 3, she spent the early part of the year routing, and her dud on Breeders’ Cup day is a big strike against her. Bar of Gold? She did nothing besides a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, which proved to be a very oddly-run race. Finley’sluckycharm? Never won a Grade 1. American Gal? Didn’t run after the Test (which was a shame, because I think she may have secretly been the best 3-year-old filly in the country this year when healthy).

Please tell me, with a straight face, why I should have felt confident casting a vote for any of these horses. Simply put, I didn’t think any of the runners I mentioned put together a campaign from start to finish that merited an Eclipse Award in this category. I can’t praise Paulassilverlining’s early success without mentioning her late-season struggles. I can’t give Lady Aurelia a North American-based award when most of her success came in Europe. I can’t say Unique Bella is an elite sprinter when her lone sprints against older horses were an OK Grade 3 win and a dud in the division’s biggest race, and no other horse did enough to even merit consideration. Add all of this up, and you get an abstention from yours truly.

Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita (1/6/18)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

We’ve come to the first Saturday of the new year, and with it come two intriguing programs at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has an assortment of ungraded stakes races on the docket, while Santa Anita will host two graded events, one of which features Kentucky Derby points for the top four finishers. I’ve got two multi-race tickets at each track, so let’s get going!

GULFSTREAM PARK

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 10,11
R2: 2,3,6
R3: 3,5
R4: 3,5
R5: 4,7,8

72 Bets, $36

If you believe in the axiom, “Pace makes the race,” the outside two horses look like the ones to beat in the Saturday opener. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this race appears to set up for closers #10 FAN BASE and #11 LITTLE BALTAR. The outside posts give me some pause, but so many horses inside of them need the lead, and I think those runners will be backing up late.

I thought the second race was very interesting. I don’t like #7 ROYAL HOLIDAY or #8 ALIEN INVASION, both of whom may not want two turns. My top pick is #2 FLYING LIBERTY, who exits a minor stakes race and won at this route three back. I’ll also use #6 COMETIN, who likes this turf course, and I’m also throwing in #3 WICKED BOY, on the off chance he replicates his two-back effort beneath new jockey Jose Ortiz.

The third is the Limehouse Stakes, and I’m intrigued by #3 PIVEN, who ships in from Woodbine. Usually, that’s not an angle I like, but he’s been working very well lately, and if he runs to those drills, he’ll be very tough. I’m also using #5 EMPIRE POWER, who may be the controlling early speed in this short field.

I’m also two-deep in the fourth, where I’ll use a pair of class-droppers. #3 WHAT POWER last ran for a $35,000 tag and goes out for the red-hot Marcus Vitali barn, while #5 SPORTSCASTER has a number of solid races over this turf course and won in his last start at this level.

The payoff leg is the Glitter Woman Stakes, and I’m three-deep in what turned out to be a fascinating field. #4 CICATRIX and #7 ELEVENSES both romped in their debuts for trainers whose first-time starters aren’t always fully cranked, so they definitely merit consideration. I’m also using #8 FOXTROT SALLY, who may have simply not wanted two turns last time out in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. Javier Castellano’s presence is a positive, and we may get a bit of a price given the recent dud.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #8

R8: 5,6,10
R9: 8
R10: 3,6
R11: ALL

72 Bets, $36

With 42 entrants across four races, there’s plenty of room for this to pay pretty well, even if shorter-priced horses find the winner’s circle. The first three legs may be formful, but if we get to the last leg, we’ll hit, and hopefully for a nice chunk of change.

The eighth is a seven-furlong maiden race for 3-year-olds, and we may see some of these horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby. #6 LIFE’S A PARLAY debuts for Todd Pletcher, and this $725,000 auction purchase is bred to be a good one. With that in mind, though, some of the workouts are pretty slow, so I want a bit more coverage than just him. #5 COVE BLUE has shown ample early speed and should relish the cutback in distance, while #10 ORBED probably needed his debut and should improve at second asking, especially with the added furlong.

I’m excited for the ninth, as there’s a 9/2 shot I really like. #8 ANDINA DEL SUR rallied impressively in her debut, and that race has proven to be a live one given the next-out winners it has produced. Every part of her pedigree says she wants to go two turns, and there should be plenty of early speed in here to set up for the kick she showed in her unveiling. I’d be very happy if we got the morning line price.

Like most people, I think the 10th race, the Mucho Macho Man, is a two-horse race. #3 DAK ATTACK was one of the most impressive 2-year-olds in the country last summer before going to the sidelines, and #6 MASK was a sharp first-out winner for Chad Brown. I’d be pretty surprised if the winner wasn’t one of those two runners.

If we get through those three legs, we’re assured to hit this wager. I needed to buy the Saturday finale because I didn’t have a clue, and judging by the morning line odds, I’m not alone. The 7/2 favorite is a horse that has been beaten a total of 33 1/4 lengths in two lifetime starts. The 4-1 second choice trailed in his debut and was beaten more than 24 lengths at odds of 32-1. If you’ve got conviction, good for you. I certainly don’t, and if we get to this point, I’ll be rooting for pari-mutuel chaos.

SANTA ANITA

$0.50 Pick Five: Race #1

R1: 5
R2: ALL
R3: 3,7,8,10
R4: 1,5,12
R5: 6

96 Bets, $48

My initial feeling is that the Pick Five sequence that kicks off with the Saturday opener could wind up a bit chalky. The bookends feature popular singles, and hopefully, we can get a price or two home in the middle legs.

At first, I wanted to play against #5 MIDNIGHT SWINGER in the first. She’s dropping in class after losing her last eight races. However, the more I looked at this race, the more I disliked her opponents. #8 ROAD TEST was beaten by that one two back, #2 TIZ ADORE is 1-for-12 and has had many chances to break through, and #9 QUINN MURPHY hasn’t won since being claimed this past summer. It’s a “hold your nose” single, but that’s where I’m going.

Singling twice allows me to spread elsewhere, and I need to hit the “ALL” button in the second race. This is a bottom-level claiming event featuring horses that seem to take turns beating one another. I can’t back any of these horses with conviction, so I’ll use all eight and hope for a price.

I’m also going pretty deep in the third. This is a maiden claimer, and I can’t get too excited about any of these, either. #8 PSYCHEDELICAT may go off favored, and his Beyer Speed Figures are such that I need to use him, but he’s 0-for-12 and has never so much as run second. Of the four I used, I most prefer #7 CONFIRMED, who just missed when dropping down to this level last time out, and #10 PATH OF EXILE, who drops down in class and is eligible to improve second off the layoff for trainer Michael McCarthy.

If #12 RANCOR had gotten a better post, she may have merited a single. She did everything but win in her turf debut at Del Mar, when she was a length behind next-out stakes winner Ippodamia’s Girl. A repeat of that race would make her tough, but she’s parked way outside, so I need to use two others. #1 PAVED was third that day, and #5 EVER SO TRUE exits the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante, where she was beaten just three lengths.

The fifth is the Grade 3 Sham for 3-year-olds, and it features one of the top Kentucky Derby prospects on the west coast. That’s #6 MCKINZIE, who was put up in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. He’s worked very well since then, and if he runs his usual race, he’s going to be incredibly tough to beat.

$0.50 Pick Four: Race #6

R6: 5,6,7,11
R7: 6,7,8,9
R8: 1
R9: 4,6,7,10,12

80 Bets, $40

I thought the Pick Five was pretty chalky. The late Pick Four? Not so much. I think this has the potential to pay very well, and my ticket spreads in three legs while singling a 6-1 shot in the other one.

We start off the sequence with a maiden claimer, and I’m not overly impressed by many of these runners. Of the four I used, the two I like most are #5 IMPECUNIOUS, who ships down from Golden Gate, and #11 KARMIC AFFINITY, who’s been working well ahead of her debut and draws a cushy outside post.

The seventh is the Grade 2 San Gabriel, and while the cast of characters may be a bit underwhelming, the evenly-matched nature of it makes for a fun betting race. I’m four-deep, and one horse I used figures to be a big price. #9 FREE ROSE ran just once in 2017, but he’s done very little wrong over the course of his career. That one race was a solid fourth in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, where he finished just two lengths behind Bal a Bali. If he’s right, I think he’s got a big shot.

My single comes in the third leg, a seven-furlong claiming event. #1 KISS MY LULU seems like the race’s main speed, and inside speed has been very good in these extended sprints so far this meet. I’m tossing the two recent races over Golden Gate’s synthetic surface, as she’s much better on conventional dirt. If she breaks well, she could get an ideal setup, and because of that, I really like her.

If we’re alive going into the finale, we’ll be five-deep. #10 INSTANT REFLEX isn’t a bad favorite, but she’s never run down the hill before, and that’s a major concern. I’ll use her, but I need coverage elsewhere. The longshot that has to be on my ticket is #7 PHANTOM PROTON, who was beaten less than four lengths in a fast race at this route two back before running into the talented Painting Corners last time out at Del Mar. There’s plenty of speed to set up for her late kick, and the presence of top downhill rider Corey Nakatani is a huge plus.