Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: Pennsylvania Derby Day and Oklahoma Derby Day

We’ll start things off with an unfortunate update. Those of you who dropped by the site last week read about the plight of fellow Saratoga handicapper Mike Jarboe, who at the time was going through some serious health issues. Unfortunately for all of us, Mike passed away a few days ago following a battle with pancreatic cancer.

A Facebook friend of mine started a fundraiser, with proceeds going to a pancreatic cancer research foundation. I’ve donated, and so have several friends of mine in the industry. If you’re able to donate, or want to find out more about the foundation’s efforts, click here.

Rest in peace, Mike. We love you.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Parx (9/23/17)

R8: 2,4,5,6,8,9
R9: 1,4,5,7
R10: 9
R11: 1,4

48 Bets, $24

Full disclosure: I’m aware of the high takeout rate at Parx, and if you don’t want to play the races from there based on that, I absolutely understand. With that in mind, this all-stakes Pick Four should boast a large pool, and this is an affordable stab at it.

If you want to end it singling Abel Tasman and West Coast (which I almost did), hitting the “ALL” button to start things off wouldn’t be a terrible idea. I used six of the nine horses entered, and the morning line favorite (Matt King Coal) was the absolute last horse I threw in. He needs the lead, and there’s a fair amount of early speed to his inside, so this race may not set up well for him.

The ninth is the Grade 3 Gallant Bob, and I thought this was a fun race. The entry of Petrov and Coal Front is a must-use, but I don’t think either horse is anywhere close to a cinch. Excitations and American Pastime are both logical alternatives, and I’ve also thrown in 15-1 shot Running Mate, whose record looks miles better if you draw a line through his lone two-turn effort in the Grade 3 LeComte. These connections mean business when they ship, and I had to have him on the ticket.

I singled Abel Tasman in the Grade 1 Cotillion. There are some solid horses signed on, but if the four-time Grade 1 winner runs her race, I just don’t see her losing. If you want a price underneath in vertical exotics, though, it wouldn’t shock me if Run and Go hits the board. She’s 2-for-2, and with Union Rags on the top of her pedigree, two turns should not be a problem.

West Coast should win the Pennsylvania Derby, and if he does so, he’ll be the unquestioned leader in the race for his division’s Eclipse Award. However, I also used Timeline, whose race in the Haskell was too bad to be true. If he runs back to either the Pegasus or the Peter Pan, I think he’s got a real shot to spring the upset. With that in mind, I doubled up rather than ending with two straight Bob Baffert-trained singles.

– – – – –

$0.50 Pick Four: Remington Park (9/24/17)

R9: 1,4,10,11
R10: 3,8
R11: 3,8
R12: 2,5,7,8

64 Bets, $32

Sunday’s card at Remington Park is one of the biggest of the season. It’s anchored by the Grade 3 Oklahoma Derby, but there’s plenty of stakes action surrounding that race as well. The track’s put together one heck of a Pick Four sequence, and my ticket doesn’t have a single…well, single.

I’m not convinced 6/5 favorite Gianna’s Dream is a cinch in the opening leg. I’ve used her, but she sat a picture-perfect trip last time out and may not be alone on the lead. I’m also using likely second choice Emerald Pond, but my ticket includes longshots Joyous Thunder and Fazzle Dazzle as well. Both are very consistent horses that would benefit from a battle up front, and I think they’ll both be moving in the right direction when the real running starts.

Ivan Fallunovalot may be the shortest price in the sequence when he runs in the 10th. I almost singled him, but Wilbo is a serious sprinter that ran a good second behind Limousine Liberal two back at Churchill Downs. His best race would put him right there, and he’d benefit from others going with the favorite out of the gate.

The 11th is the Oklahoma Derby, and this was another near-single for me. Battle of Midway broke through with a very strong performance last time out at Del Mar in what doubled as his first outing with blinkers. He’s been a solid horse all year, and he may have put it all together late in his 3-year-old campaign. Still, I had to use Girvin, who’s a feast-or-famine type of horse. When he’s right, as he was in the Haskell, he’s a very good runner. When he isn’t, it’s not pretty to watch. Still, this is a much softer spot than the Travers was, and maybe he just doesn’t want to go a mile and a quarter.

The payoff leg features local favorite Ibaka, who’s won 13 of his 27 lifetime races and four out of five tries on this turf course. I used him, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he wins, but he won’t have it easy up front. I wanted coverage in case he goes too fast early on, as he did in the Oklahoma Turf Classic last October. The winner that day, Runandyrun, also shows up in this spot to run on his favorite turf course, and we may get a price on this stakes-winning closer given the recent form over tracks he probably didn’t care for. I’m also using Pacific Typhoon and Perfect to Please. Both Veronica Griggs trainees come in off of strong wins in local preps, and both have big chances in this spot.

A Tribute to a Friend, Plus Woodbine Mile Day Analysis, Selections, and Tickets

We’ll get to my tickets and analysis for Woodbine in a few minutes. However, there’s a more pressing matter that I need to address, and unfortunately, it’s not an easy one to talk about.

The press corps covering horse racing in New York has thinned out significantly in recent years. Some people have retired, others have been laid off, and a few, yes, have passed away. It’s tough to see that happen, and it’s not getting any simpler to deal with.

Mike Jarboe was a longtime copy editor for The Albany Times Union, and has been one of that paper’s featured handicappers. He retired from his full-time post last year, but still handicapped daily this past Saratoga season. That isn’t easy for anyone to do, but, without getting too far into it (out of respect for Mike and his family), he’s been battling some serious health problems of late.

Mike’s one of the most respected men in the Saratoga press box, and probably the only member of the press corps that could seriously challenge me in a Pedro the Press Box Master Chef hot dog-eating contest. In addition, he’s a world-class fiddle player and an even better human being. He’s in the club of people that had a million chances to tell me to shut up and never did, and anyone that’s ever rubbed shoulders with him came away better for the experience.

On Labor Day, Saratoga named a race after Mike, and he was in the winner’s circle with a number of family members and close friends. I wish I could’ve been there, as that was a tremendous gesture. However, there is one thing I can propose, and hopefully, it’s something Mike would appreciate.

Every year, newspaper handicappers across several publications attempt the same arduous task: Pick the most winners possible in Saratoga’s 40-day, 400-race meet. If you think it’s easy, or that luck matters more than skill, you’re wrong. It’s a mental grind, as it should be, because being the best of the best is a point of pride for whoever is able to do it.

I’m using this space to propose an idea to the leadership groups of several different papers, namely The Saratogian, The Albany Times Union, The Daily Gazette, The Saratoga Special, and any New York City papers that still have a daily handicapper picking every race on every Saratoga card. I would like all of us to come together in recognition of someone that’s done a lot of good, and for the leading handicapper across print media at all Saratoga meets going forward to be recognized with the Mike Jarboe Award.

(Quick aside: If you think this is me proposing an award so I can win it, you’re missing the point entirely. This is me attempting to appropriately honor a friend whose contributions I greatly respect.)

We can all hash out the details later as to what the award actually is. Maybe it’s a trophy, or a plaque, or a wrestling-style championship belt (my close friends and colleagues already know which one I’m voting for). In all seriousness, though, I motion that we all come together to celebrate someone who dedicated decades of service to Saratoga and the Albany print media, and I think it’s a cause we can all get behind. Who knows? Perhaps those close to Mike can recommend a charity we could all donate to in some way, shape, or form.

At any rate: Mike, if you’re reading this, thanks for everything you did, and thanks for never telling this motor-mouthed, fresh-faced kid to shut up.

– – – – –

WOODBINE PICKS/ANALYSIS/TICKETS

$0.20 Pick Five: Race #2

R2: 6,8
R3: 3,10
R4: 1,4,5,8,10
R5: 3,4,8
R6: 1,2,7

180 Bets, $36

I’ve mentioned it before, but I love Woodbine’s 20-cent minimums on multi-race exotics. It makes challenging sequences much more playable, and because everyone’s playing for 20 cents, the difference in payoffs isn’t nearly as much as one might think. This is good, because this is a VERY difficult card, one that starts with a tough early Pick Five sequence.

I don’t trust likely second race favorite Forestella, who’s 0-for-10 with six seconds. She could win, and I’m using her, but my top pick is first-time starter Crimson Ring, a filly that boasts a flashy recent workout and top local rider Eurico Da Silva. I’ll also go two-deep in the third, using likely chalk Avie’s Mineshaft and Mark Casse runner Loopety Loo, the latter of which was a good second in a stakes race last time out.

I thought the fourth race was incredibly difficult, and if you’ve got a single elsewhere in the sequence, you may want to buy this race. Hopefully, going five-deep here is enough. Finally, I’m three-deep in the last two legs. The Grade 3 Bold Venture changed significantly with the scratch of likely favorite Good Bye Greg, and I’m playing against new likely favorite Unbridled Juan, who’s never struck me as a sprinter. I’m three-deep there, and hopefully we can finish off a nice score with a price.

$0.20 Pick Four: Race #4

R4: 1,4,5,8,10
R5: 3,4,8
R6: 1,7
R7: 1,2,5,6,7

150 Bets, $30

The first two legs of this ticket are the same as legs three and four of my early Pick Five. I used Boreal Spirit in the Pick Five, but not here. If you want to use him and spend some extra money, feel free. However, I thought the seventh race was extremely tough, and I opted to spread there. That’s another race where, if you’ve got conviction elsewhere in the sequence, you may want to punch the “ALL” button and give yourself some security if you get to the payoff leg.

$0.20 Pick Five/$0.20 Pick Four

R8: 1
R9: 2,7,9
R10: 4,8
R11: 2,4,5,7,9,10
R12: 1,2,6,7,10

180 Bets, $36

The Pick Five starts in the eighth, and the Pick Four begins in the ninth. I’m singling Quidura in the eighth, the Grade 2 Canadian, and I’d venture to say that I’m not alone. She’ll be one of the shortest prices on the entire card, and if she repeats her Diana effort, where she was beaten a head by Lady Eli, she’s going to be extremely difficult to beat.

The ninth is a maiden claimer that’s been jammed into the sequence. Conquest Swagman takes a big drop in class for solid connections and may be favored, but my top pick there is Red Chill, another class-dropper whose last race on turf seems like a throw-out. The tenth race is the Grade 1 Northern Dancer, and while some might single European shipper Hawkbill, I’m going to add Messi, whose lone start on this turf course was incredibly impressive. He’s inconsistent, but if the good Messi shows up, he’s got a big shot.

That brings us to the last two legs, both of which are wide-open races with big fields. I’m six-deep in the 11th, a claiming event, and several horses I’m using are prices. Bear’sway certainly wins if he’s right, but he takes an alarming drop in class and hasn’t been the same horse we saw in 2015 and early-2016. I want coverage here, for sure, and hopefully we’ll get a price home.

The last leg is the main event. This is the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile, and it’s drawn a tremendous field with several European invaders. My top pick is Lancaster Bomber, whose only North American start was a strong second behind Oscar Performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s chased some of the top 3-year-olds in Europe this year, and he benefits from a huge weight break (he’ll tote just 112 pounds and get as many as 12 pounds from his rivals). I don’t love him (as evidenced by me going five-deep!), but 9/2 is a pretty square price on a horse that’s shown he can compete against some of the world’s best horses.

$0.20 Jackpot Hi 5: Race #13

1st: 2,4,5,10
2nd: 2,4,5,10
3rd: 2,4,5,10
4th: 1,2,4,5,6,10,13
5th: 1,2,4,5,6,10,13

288 Bets, $57.60

I don’t usually play these sorts of wagers, but Woodbine’s 20-cent Jackpot Hi 5 boasts a mandatory payout, so I’ve put a ticket together if you’re interested. This is NOT an easy race, but I was able to separate four “A” horses and three additional “B” horses from the rest of the field. This is a bit more expensive than I’d have preferred, but the pool size will certainly merit taking a swing. If you’re playing, I’d advise a syndicate ticket to maximize the covered combinations.

More War Stories from a Bizarre Career in Sports, Horse Racing, and Journalism

Last month, as part of “The Dark Day Files,” I wrote a few stories up from my life and career that hadn’t been chronicled anywhere. That post did pretty well, and I’ve heard that a few of those tales resonated with people in a cool way (the writer of the story chronicled in “Error-Gate” had completely forgotten about how it wound up affecting me, for instance). With that in mind, I’m doing a similar post (largely from my phone, since my computer’s keyboard is being finicky!), and I’ll throw a few stories up every once in a while for as long as people want to read them.

– – – – –

THE CANOE

My father was confused as to why this story didn’t make it into the first batch of stories I told, so here we go. Every racetrack veteran has had memorable days of going to the track that have absolutely nothing to do with the horses, and some have very little to do with wagering. This is one of those times.

Before I go further, I should note that my father and I remember certain details about this ordeal a bit differently. I believe we were directly behind a hatchback that had a canoe on the top, and we were just shy of the Twin Bridges, which are between Albany and Saratoga on the Adirondack Northway. He thinks the car was in a lane alongside us near Malta, which is the last town you get to before Saratoga Springs going north.

Regardless of that, there’s no disputing what happened next. The canoe came loose of its bearings and dropped behind the car. It bounced once to where it was directly in front of us, and I remember ducking and throwing my arms up to stop myself from getting impaled.

Somehow, though, the canoe took a 90-degree bounce sideways, did not hit a single car on that bounce, and then skidded off the road and into the trees. It’s a little difficult to paint the picture of just how fortunate it was that nobody got hurt that day, but hopefully, you get some idea. My dad and I then got our respective clocks cleaned at the track that day, but we still consider ourselves winners.

– – – – –

ESCAPING DRIVING DUTIES…AT THE DOG TRACK?

As some of you know, my career did not start out in horse racing. My first job out of college was in the athletic communications office at Siena College, where I did a little bit of everything. That included providing stats for some sports, putting on events, pitching story concepts to the media, and handling most of the department’s audio-visual coverage, including a segment called Siena Saints Weekly, which you can still find on YouTube to this day. In fact, here’s a “best of” compilation I did at the end of the 2011-12 school year.

Anyway, with such a small department and so many assignments to go around, I got the brunt of a lot of stuff. I did many things, and was proud to do many things, but there was an instance where I just had to draw the line.

The 2011 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference basketball tournament was held in Bridgeport, Connecticut. Why Bridgeport? That’s a question that baffles many within the league to this very day. At any rate, on our way to this scenic locale, my two bosses, Jason Rich and Mike Demos (both of whom, I’m proud to say, are friends of mine to this day), started making noise about plans for the evening, complete with assigning me the job of hauling them around.

Silently, I began plotting a way out of it. Yes, I was the intern, but I was also NOBODY’S driver. My exit plan materialized before my eyes when I set my stuff down in the hotel room I shared with Scott Connell, a fellow Ithaca College graduate (go Bombers!) who was then an assistant medical trainer with the basketball teams. I opened up the curtains, and my reaction would have been much more subdued had I somehow stumbled upon the lost city of El Dorado.

A few blocks from the hotel…sat a long-closed greyhound racing venue that advertised live simulcasting of thoroughbred racing.

I don’t quite remember how I did it, but I snuck out without anyone noticing and with nary a clue about what tracks were running. I arrived to a pretty desolate scene, with a handful of older Korean gentlemen huddling around televisions that wouldn’t have been out of place 25 years earlier. I quickly found out that none of them spoke a word of English, and I proceeded to spend the rest of the evening handicapping Delta Downs with that group.

I could’ve been jumping from one seedy dive bar to another in Bridgeport, Connecticut, but instead chose to watch racing from a track in Louisiana with people I could not communicate with. Who says MY life isn’t worth living?

– – – – –

OTHER SIENA STORIES

Many of these stories are good, but too short for their own entries.

– On a women’s basketball bus ride to Maine (EIGHT HOURS EACH WAY IN DECEMBER!!!), I overheard part of a game of “truth or dare” being played on the back of the bus. I didn’t exactly hear the question, but given that I heard an answer of, “Andrew, he’s kind of cute,” I can fill in the blanks. What bothered me was an instantaneous reaction of, “EW!!!,” by another player. Plot twist: Even though I was 10 rows ahead of the team huddled in the back, and even though they talked quietly to make sure nobody could hear them, I’ve always known who the players in question were and who said what.

– I was the media relations contact for Siena’s water polo team. In 2011, they had their senior day, complete with speeches from juniors to graduating seniors. One of the speeches, uttered in full view of the athletic director, featured the line, “You’re like Rihanna. Sticks and stones may break your bones, but chains and whips excite you.” I got blown up at for that by one of my direct bosses (even though it was never explained to me that I was supposed to take a leadership role in pulling this off), and the next year, we got a LOT stricter with the speeches (much to the dismay of the teams involved!).

– In the fall of 2011, as they did every year, my bosses gave media training seminars to student-athletes. It included showing a series of social media posts made by current or former student-athletes that showed what not to do (typical, college-kid stuff). One team’s response, one of a certain sort of outrage, was to block every member of the athletic communications office on social media. This included me, even though I had nothing to do with that!

– One of the college teams I served as a contact for threw particular fits about the pre-game music and its volume. Namely, during warmups, a number of people on the team would stop the drills, run to the side of the field the press box was on, and yell for us to turn it up. It’s no surprise that, the year they did this, said team went winless on the season.

– Best pre-game story: Before my very first field hockey game in 2010, I went down to the field to talk to the coach of Saint Louis University. A few of the players had multiple positions listed, and I wanted to make sure I got them right. The coach’s direct quote: “Don’t worry about it. It’s pretty much a free-for-all.”

– There is no worse rule in college sports than the one in softball that reads, “no error can take place when a player’s glove does not touch the ball.” If I could’ve burned a rulebook in protest every time such a ruling had to be made, I would have.

– The commissioner of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference has me blocked on Twitter. I know a few people who work closely with him, so I need to ask: What did I do? I never once actually TALKED with the guy.

– – – – –

THE QUIET MAN

Between years at Siena, I worked for The Saratoga Special, a seasonal publication run by Joe and Sean Clancy. Many people of considerable merit in horse racing have cut their teeth working for the Special, including Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone, NTRA communications maestro Jim Mulvihill, and ESPN reporter Quint Kessenich. Because this is my site, I’m gratuitously adding my name to this list, and if you don’t like it, well, tough.

Anyway, I worked for them for a few weeks in 2011 before the Siena athletic year started, mostly grabbing post-race sound bytes for undercard stories. For the most part, I had a blast, and many of the people I interviewed could not have been nicer. I still have an “interview” I did with Helen Groves, who owned an impressive filly named And Why Not. I asked one question, and she talked uninterrupted for several minutes. It’s an easy job when all you have to do is hit a “record” button!

However, there was a part-owner who shall remain nameless that did something that sticks in my craw six-plus years later. He had a 2-year-old win at first asking, which is every big-time owner’s dream. I went and talked to him…and he said next to nothing before brushing me off. It should be noted that I talked with dozens of people at the track that summer, and he was the only one to give me that treatment.

One of his friends, to his credit, tried to do damage control, insisting that he was, “a private guy.” I shrugged him off, believing then (as I do now) that if you’re at the track to watch your horse run, you’d better be prepared to say something to someone if that horse wins. That taught me something about how to deal with people, and even now, I’ve prided myself on treating people better than I was treated that day.

Necessary postscript: The horse that got him into the winner’s circle that day never won another race.

Belmont Park Analysis, Selections, and Tickets: 9/9/17 (PLUS: Saratoga stats/recap)

It’s opening weekend at Belmont Park, and Saturday’s card is a good one. There are 10 races on the program, and I’ve got a pair of multi-race tickets that I’m putting online. I think there’s plenty of potential for a few prices throughout the card, and hopefully, we can connect the dots. If we do, chances are we’ll get paid!

$0.50 Pick Five

R1: ALL
R2: 9,10
R3: 1,5
R4: 2,5,6
R5: 1

84 Bets, $42

This is a bit more expensive than I’d like, and if you want to downsize to an early Pick Four or a smaller Pick Five ticket, that’s just fine. My listed ticket would make for an $6 Pick Four that starts in the second leg, so I get that logic. However, the first race is wide-open, and if we get a price home there, it could set the tone for a big payday. I’m hitting the “ALL” button there, and I’ll narrow things down elsewhere.

I’ll go with Triangulate and Devine Entry in the second, and I think both could improve in their second lifetime starts. I’ll also go two-deep in the third. Portfolio Manager makes his first start for new trainer Danny Gargan, while Conquest Sure Shot woke up in his first race on dirt last time out and may have wanted this surface all along.

I’m using three in the fourth, and while two are logicals, I’m also throwing in Indimaaj, who is bred to go a distance of ground and faded following a speed duel in his unveiling. That brings me to my single, which comes in the payoff leg. I loved Kahrumana’s last race, where she set a pretty fast pace yet hung on to finish a close-up third. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems like the quickest of the quick, and I think the rail draw is a big plus.

$0.50 Pick Four

R7: 2,3,11,12
R8: 3
R9: 3,4,7,8,9
R10: 2,10,11

60 Bets, $30

The makeup of my ticket changed considerably when Far From Over scratched out of the eighth. He would’ve been a heavy favorite, and I’m left with a single in a four-horse field. Anyway, I’m using a price in the opening leg. Itsinthestars, Treatherlikestar, and High Jingo are all logical and will be bet, but I need to use Rock Ave. Road as well. She ran some solid races here earlier in the year, and the rider switch to Joel Rosario is colossal. She ran behind a few of these at Saratoga, but I think she’ll improve with the change in scenery.

The eighth is the Saturday feature, the Seattle Slew. Conquest Windycity seems like the lone speed in a small field, and I think he’ll be very tough. The ninth, though, is much tougher. I went five-deep, and I hope that’s enough. If Camelot Kitten is right second off the layoff, he probably wins, but there’s also the possibility he just hasn’t improved from age three to age four, so I want coverage.

I’ll go three-deep to close things out. Mineralogy scratched, and that opens up the field a bit. Tu Exageres was eased last time out at Saratoga, but he’s my top pick. That one didn’t do much wrong in three starts before that, and I’m willing to give him another chance. I’ll also use Peculiar Sensation and Real Creel in an attempt to close things out.

– – – – –

OK, time for some stats before we go. Saratoga was a big meet for me in a number of ways. I put up a LOT of content on this website, and I was very curious as to the audience it reached.

I’d like to extend a special thank you to those who read and shared my stuff, because the analytics surpassed my wildest expectations. My website, and the content that was housed on it, received approximately 12,000 views from mid-July through Labor Day.

I started this website in large part because there were certain things I’d been permitted to do with a previous employer that I was stopped from doing about six months ago. I’ve never intended to make any money from this website (note that I’m not charging for picks or content!). This serves the purpose of scratching the writing/handicapping itch, while also giving people a handy reference point to find out more about me. I never once thought I’d ever reach THAT many people, and I’m floored that I did. Once again: THANK YOU.

Admittedly, a large part of that traffic was probably due to the fact that I had a very good meet. I wound up as the leading print handicapper at Saratoga, which is one of the greatest honors I will ever earn in my chosen field (not to mention validation for a chip I’ve had on my shoulder for six months!). My projected winners won 128 of 400 races where I had at least one top-three runner left after scratches, which is an even 32% clip.

Even is a good word in another sense. My father and I dove into the numbers, and we both concluded that, if you had bet $2 on every one of my top selections to win throughout the meet, you’d have, yep, broken even. In gambler’s terms, my $2 ROI was $2, which is pretty incredible considering I handicapped and provided selections for every single race, including ones where I didn’t necessarily have a strong opinion.

I’ll be back in 10 months to defend my title, and hopefully, next year’s meet goes as smoothly as the one before it did!

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: Labor Day (9/4/17)

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Closing Day is upon us, and it’s time for my usual round of shout-outs. Most notably, thanks to the staff at The Saratogian for once again having me in The Pink Sheet. Managing editor Charlie Kraebel, sports editor David Johnson, and the entire sports staff all do fantastic work all meet long, essentially putting out two newspapers’ worth of content, and this year, they did it while moving shop from the old office on Lake Avenue.

I’d also like to thank those who read my work this summer. Whether you saw it on AndrewChampagne.com, bought a copy of The Pink Sheet, or mooched someone else’s paper while at the track, I genuinely appreciate those who took the time to check out what I wrote and which horses I picked. It’s been a lot of fun, and I’m already looking forward to next year!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: With the rain came surface changes and scratches, and we were washed out of all of our action.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Last year, I opted to let it all ride and it paid off, getting me closer to even on the year. This year, I’m doing something very similar. #7 YOUR LOVE looms large in the fourth race, and I think she’s a very likely winner, albeit at a short price. I’ll put all $828 of my bankroll on her, with $414 each to win and place. The question is, what do I do with the remaining 35 cents?

TOTAL WAGERED: $828

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Your Love, Race 4
Longshot: Something Joyful, Race 10

R1

Marzo
Dirty
Enticed

MARZO: Was a million-dollar baby at last year’s Keeneland September sale and has worked to that price for powerhouse connections. The outside post is a plus given his inexperience, and I think John Velazquez can make his own trip; DIRTY: Has worked strongly here for a barn that can win with first-time starters. He fetched $120k at auction earlier this year, and is by promising young sire Maclean’s Music; ENTICED: Is bred to be a very good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of It’s Tricky, who was a very good filly at her peak. The rail draw isn’t ideal, and this barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but he could win on his best day.

R2

Escape Velocity (MTO)
Carbon Data
Son of Oahu

CARBON DATA: Drops down in class for an aggressive barn that clearly wants to win the training title at the meet. He’s been competitive against better horses, and his usual race would make him tough to beat; SON OF OAHU: Hasn’t won in a while, but has run well in each of his last two starts. Both of them came at this level, and he figures to come running late; SUTTER’S MILL: Was claimed out of his last race by Charlton Baker, who’s done very well with new acquisitions. He likely needs to step up, but his debut win at Monmouth was pretty good. DIRT SELECTIONS: ESCAPE VELOCITY, ITSABIGBOY, BUNYAAN.

R3

Driving Me Crazy
No Hiding Place
Drover Crazy

DRIVING ME CRAZY: Has improved considerably in two starts for Jason Servis, one of which was an impressive victory at this route. He showed he didn’t necessarily didn’t need the lead that day, and given the speed signed on here, that’s a plus; NO HIDING PLACE: Takes a big drop in class after flashing speed against much better horses last week. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, and this one could appreciate the considerable class relief; DROVER CRAZY: Was claimed last time out at Belmont and takes a steep drop in his first start for new connections. He’s another that could relish the shallower waters, but such a steep drop this quickly also raises some concerns.

R4

Your Love
Ring Knocker
Kelsocait

YOUR LOVE: Found the Grade 1 Test too tough last time out but won two in a row before that downstate. This does not appear to be the strongest race for the level, and her usual race would make her tough; RING KNOCKER: Must be a fun horse to own, having hit the board in 22 of 30 career races. She has not run a bad race in nearly a year, and she figures to be running well late; KELSOCAIT: Sports a solid win over this course, albeit against a weaker group. She has tactical speed and figures to be prominent early.

R5

My Bronx Tail (MTO)
Rushing Fall
Tropical Wave

RUSHING FALL: Fetched $320k at auction last summer and is bred up and down for the turf. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Forestry mare, and some of the recent workouts appear very sharp; TROPICAL WAVE: Didn’t do much running in her debut, but I’m drawing a line through that effort. She’s bred to go much longer, and this barn’s first-time starters don’t hit at a high rate. Improvement is logical, and we may get a big price; CRITIQUE: Was an OK second in her debut, which was rained off the turf. The experience helps, but the recent workouts have been a bit on the slow side. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY BRONX TAIL, LADY BY CHOICE, CRITIQUE.

R6

Engage
Home Run Maker
He’s Bankable

ENGAGE: Ran very well in his debut, finishing a strong second behind a Hopeful contender. They went very fast early on in that event, and any improvement would make this one very formidable; HOME RUN MAKER: Fetched $205k at auction earlier this year and has been one of the fastest-working 2-year-olds on the grounds. He’s bred to be a good one, and he certainly merits consideration; HE’S BANKABLE: Probably wants to go longer, but can’t be ignored. His recent works are very sharp, and given the pedigree (by Arch, out of a Seeking the Gold mare), he could benefit if there’s any moisture left in the track.

R7

Heart to Heart
Delta Prince
Projected

HEART TO HEART: Has one way of going, which is on the lead, and that could help him here. There’s not much other early speed signed on, and this one shouldn’t be hurt by any moisture still left in the turf course; DELTA PRINCE: Has done very little wrong since being switched to the turf. He’s won three out of four starts on the lawn, including an impressive win here earlier in the meet; PROJECTED: Has run second in each of his last three starts, including last month’s Lure. That was a swiftly-run race, and this one’s back class makes him a contender.

R8

Jcs American Dream (MTO)
Tizzelle
Driven by Speed

TIZZELLE: Has two wins and two seconds in four career starts, including one that came earlier in the meet. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one has beaten several of today’s rivals in the past; DRIVEN BY SPEED: Has woken up since going to the turf, winning two races in a row. Both victories came in wire-to-wire fashion, and while there’s other speed here, this may be the horse they have to catch late; BAREEQA: Has won three of her last five starts, including a win going longer here last month. This is a class test for her, but this barn has had a very strong meet and Lezcano’s ridden well on this turf course. DIRT SELECTIONS: JCS AMERICAN DREAM, LEGALLY BAY, IRON MIZZ.

R9

Mojovation
National Flag
Free Drop Billy

MOJOVATION: Was extremely impressive in his debut, winning in wire-to-wire fashion while being geared down late. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but the unveiling suggested there’s a lot of ability here; NATIONAL FLAG: Broke through last time out after a disappointing debut. That day’s runner-up runs in the sixth, and if that one wins there, it bodes well for this one’s chances in this spot; FREE DROP BILLY: Was a late-running second in the Sanford, and he’s bred to improve as the races get longer. The extra furlong should be a welcome change, and he figures to be going the right direction late.

R10

Lulu’s Pom Pom
Something Joyful
Objective Complete

LULU’S POM POM: Was the subject of a controversial disqualification many didn’t agree with last month (spoiler alert: I didn’t, either). She had a rough trip that day, and a repeat effort could be good enough to win; SOMETHING JOYFUL: Is bred to be a strong turf runner and has worked well ahead of her debut. Joel Rosario doesn’t ride for Jeremiah Englehart much, so it’s noteworthy that he’s signed on here; OBJECTIVE COMPLETE: Probably needed the race last time out, since it was her first effort in about seven months. Improvement is logical second off the bench if she draws into the meet’s final race.