Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/3/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.35

Add another issue to the “problems that arise when you’re 3,000 miles away” list. I handicapped today’s card with the weather forecast (lots of rain) in mind. Maybe I’ll be right, maybe not, but most of my top three selections in turf races include at least one horse that would improve if those races were moved to the dirt.

As tough as it was to put those together, it’s even tougher to compile a bankroll section. How can you put bets in when you don’t know what surface the races will be run on? It’s a difficult puzzle to solve, and hopefully, we’ll do alright amidst the challenging circumstances.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Separationofpowers was dueled into defeat in the Spinaway, and our Woodward exacta ran 1-3. As such, we dropped $50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll cross my fingers, hope the races in question stay on the turf, and focus most of my action on the middle part of the card. I’ll play $8 doubles starting in the sixth with the #1 entry and #2 CAMPAIGN and finishing with #8 PINK SANDS and #11 MOCKERY. Additionally, I’ll take a $5 across-the-board swing in the Prioress with #2 SISTER KAN, just in case the race falls apart given all of the speed that’s signed on.

TOTAL WAGERED: $47

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Blue Atlas, Race 11
Longshot: Sister Kan, Race 10

R1

Sudden Surprise
Smokem’s Charm
Proper Freud

SUDDEN SURPRISE: Is a perfect 3-for-3 at Saratoga, including a win last time out at this level going slightly longer. These connections must be respected, and he’s 2-for-4 over off tracks, so the anticipated rain wouldn’t hurt him if it showed up; SMOKEM’S CHARM: Has won three of his last four at Finger Lakes, with the lone loss coming to a horse that won here earlier in the meet. This barn has a history of success when shipping horses like these to Saratoga; PROPER FREUD: Likely needs to improve to win this, but is worth a look underneath given the likely race shape. He appears to be the lone closer in a race full of early speed.

R2

Way Smart
Dream Passage
La Moneda

WAY SMART: Seems like the horse to beat if this race stays on the turf. She was a good second in her debut for a barn whose runners often need a race to get going, and note the rider switch to Jose Ortiz; DREAM PASSAGE: Seems like the main speed in here and could have a perfect trip on the lead. Additionally, she’s the lone runner in this race with an OK dirt effort, which could be handy if rain hits; LA MONEDA: Made a middle move in her debut and flattened out late. This barn has had a strong meet, and improvement is logical at second asking. DIRT SELECTIONS: DREAM PASSAGE, KAT O MINE, SMART AND SASSY.

R3

Rich Daddy
Turco Bravo
Conquest Bigluck E

RICH DADDY: Hasn’t run a bad race in his last five starts, four of which have come for Eddie Kenneally. He exits an OK optional claimer at Monmouth, and he may be forwardly-placed in an event that lacks early speed; TURCO BRAVO: Cuts way back in distance after running fourth in the Birdstone earlier in the meet. He hasn’t won in a while, but this spot represents class relief, and he’d benefit from an off track; CONQUEST BIGLUCK E: Ships in from Canterbury, so there’s no gauge of how he’ll handle this track. However, he’s 6-for-15 lifetime, and his only start over a wet track was a win against similar foes at Oaklawn Park.

R4

Jump for Joy
Anna Rae
Enterprise Value

JUMP FOR JOY: Ran an OK race in her first effort in more than a year last time out. She likely needed that race, and further progression would make her tough to beat here; ANNA RAE: Hasn’t won in a while, but take a big drop in class after spending most of her career running against much better horses. She didn’t break well last time out, so there’s reason to believe she’ll step up here; ENTERPRISE VALUE: Adds blinkers following a third-place finish at Delaware Park in her first start for this barn. The recent workouts are sharp, and note the presence of Jose Ortiz, who doesn’t ride for this outfit much.

R5

Cashless Society
Unbridledadventure
Woundwithhereyes

CASHLESS SOCIETY: Is 2-for-3 in her career and hasn’t done much wrong. She beat a weaker group last time out, and she’s the one to beat for powerhouse connections if this stays on the turf; UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE: Has to be placed here given the high likelihood of this race being moved to the main track. She cruised home in a similar situation last time out, and her dirt form is miles ahead of the rest of the field; WOUNDWITHHEREYES: Hasn’t won in a while, but is a consistent sort who’s picked up plenty of minor awards on turf and dirt and can’t be thrown out. DIRT SELECTIONS: UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE, WOUNDWITHHEREYES, CHA CHA HEELS.

R6

Campaign
Brown entry
Johnny Action

CAMPAIGN: Fetched $675k at auction last year and has been working very well ahead of his debut. He’s bred to handle either surface, and it wouldn’t stun me if he’s left in even if this race gets moved to dirt; BROWN ENTRY: Both VOTING CONTROL and TRANSFER PRICING have worked well, with the latter drawing in if this race is moved off the turf. Either way, it wouldn’t be shocking if that barn runs 1-2, since Brown also trains my top pick; JOHNNY ACTION: May have needed his debut, where he was one-paced and ran into Untamed Domain. That rival came back to run well in a Grade 3, so it could have been a very live spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAMPAIGN, TRANSFER PRICING, LONE SAILOR.

R7

Mockery
Pink Sands
Elenathena

MOCKERY: Merits lots of respect if she draws in off the AE list. She was a late-running third in her debut, and the second-place finisher has since come back to graduate; PINK SANDS: Was a $625k auction purchase last year and has worked to that purchase price. This barn’s horses often need a race, but the presence of Javier Castellano could signal good intentions; ELENATHENA: Has worked well leading up to her unveiling for a barn that hits at a high percentage with first-time starters.

R8

Rubilinda
Repole entry
Kahrumana

RUBILINDA: Has done little wrong in two career starts, winning her debut and running second behind a perfect-trip winner last time out. If this daughter of Frankel steps forward, she should be moving best of all late; REPOLE ENTRY: OVERNEGOTIATE was a good second last time out at this level, while THIRSTFORTHECUP is the lone main-track-only entrant in this field and looms large if the race is moved to the main track; KAHRUMANA: Set a pretty fast pace last time out, yet still hung on for third money. She may not be alone up front, but if she makes an easier lead, she could get brave. DIRT SELECTIONS: THIRSTFORTHECUP, RILEY’S CHOICE, MAJESTIC BONNIE.

R9

Libby’s Tail
Luz Mimi
Kirby’s Penny

LIBBY’S TAIL: Came off the bench running last time out, finishing a close-up second in her first start since January. She’s worked well since then, and further progression is logical second off the layoff; LUZ MIMI: Has found a new level in four starts for Jeremiah Englehart and was third behind my top pick last time out. She could benefit from a wet track, as she won on one two back at Belmont; KIRBY’S PENNY: Has won three of four career dirt starts, although two of those victories came over much weaker fields. Still, she figures to be the main early speed, and she could lead them a long way.

R10

Vertical Oak
Nonna Mela
Sister Kan

VERTICAL OAK: Gets some class relief after chasing American Gal in the Grade 1 Test last time out. Her races before that were sharp, and while she should be prominent early, it helps that she does not necessarily need the lead; NONNA MELA: Rolled home in her 2017 debut, improving to 2-for-2 over this surface. She also won the Grade 2 Adirondack here last year, and these connections merit respect; SISTER KAN: Takes a big step up in class but has crossed the wire in front on four straight occasions. In a race with lots of speed signed on, a closer could pick up some pieces late, and as such, I think this one could get a slice of it at a big price.

R11

Blue Atlas
Bilinski entry
Scoopsie Patato

BLUE ATLAS: Is strictly the one to beat if this race stays on the turf. She found two turns too far last time out and cuts back to her preferred route in the Sunday finale; BILINSKI ENTRY: This is mainly because STONEY BENNETT is the lone main-track-only runner in the field. He’s worked pretty well, and none of the others in here have anything resembling dirt form; SCOOPSIE PATATO: Debuts for a barn that has had plenty of success with first-time starters. Javier Castellano doesn’t ride for this outfit much, so it’s notable that he’s signed on here.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/2/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $878.35

Closing weekend is upon us at Saratoga, and as usual, there’s a lot going on. Saturday’s card boasts two Grade 1 races, one of which is headlined by the top handicap horse on the grounds. Meanwhile, the Labor Day program features the Grade 1 Hopeful, and that’s an intriguing race considering the relative lack of standouts in the 2-year-old male division to this point. This’ll be fun, and hopefully we’ll cash a few tickets along the way!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We had nothing behind New York’s Finest in the seventh, and Lem Me Dance was off the board despite an OK effort (missed the break and ran wide). We dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’m going to keep this simple with a pair of $25 plays. I’ll punch a $25 double using top Spinaway pick #1 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS with #2 GUN RUNNER in the Woodward, and I’ll play a cold $25 exacta using Gun Runner with #1 NEOLITHIC.

TOTAL WAGERED: $50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Gun Runner, Race 11
Longshot: Always a Suspect, Race 7

R1

Driven by Thunder
Borsa Vento
Honor Thy Father

DRIVEN BY THUNDER: Drops way down in class for aggressive connections and has never run a bad race on a fast dirt course. This trainer/jockey tandem merits respect, and he seems like the one to beat; BORSA VENTO: Graduated last time out and was claimed out of that race by Steven Asmussen, who does strong work with new acquisitions. This is his first outing against winners, but his most recent effort was solid; HONOR THY FATHER: Drops down in class, and he made some noise as a 2-year-old when running in a few stakes races. It can be argued his best effort was in the Ellis Park Juvenile, which was run around one turn, and he comes back to that route here.

R2

Maraud
Oroscopo
Say the Word

MARAUD: Is bred up and down to be a very good turf horse. He’s a half to graded stakes winner Arklow, his female family is very distinguished, and he’s got a few strong local works on the tap; OROSCOPO: Fetched $325k at auction earlier this year and has the pedigree to love turf. He’s by Orb, whose first offspring have taken to the lawn in a big, big way; SAY THE WORD: Is another bred for the grass, and he ships down for a Canadian owning and breeding institution. A trip through the pedigree leads to third dam Dance Smartly, one of the top Canadian thoroughbreds in history.

R3

Bluegrass Jamboree
Frosty Gal
Palladian Bridge

BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE: Has yet to run a bad race in four career starts. She was second at this level despite a rough trip, and the rider switch to John Velazquez is notable; FROSTY GAL: Has run in three stakes races this season and should find this level more to her liking. Several local workouts are solid; PALLADIAN BRIDGE: Hasn’t won in a while, but comes back to her preferred surface after chasing a next-out stakes winner on turf last time out. She should be prominent early, and her best is good enough for a piece of it.

R4

Slim Shadey
Docs Legacy
Indebted

SLIM SHADEY: Stood up last time out at this level and route, winning a swiftly-run race for the level. This veteran did get an ideal trip that day, but there’s plenty of speed signed on here and he could come running once again; DOCS LEGACY: Pulled off a 31-1 upset against similar foes earlier in the meet and cuts back in distance. He needs some luck to draw in, but must be respected if he does; INDEBTED: Ran second behind my second selection last time out and was claimed out of that race by a small barn that’s done tremendous work with new acquisitions. He’s another closer that needs a pace to run at, but he should get it.

R5

Phi Beta Express (MTO)
J. S. Choice
Funtastic

J. S. CHOICE: Was a solid second last time out in a weirdly-run race. The winner got loose on an uncontested lead early on, and this one didn’t miss by much. There’s plenty of speed signed on here, which is a plus; FUNTASTIC: Graduated last time out in his turf debut, and this trainer/jockey combination has been tremendous all meet long. He could be good enough to beat winners in his first start at the level; LUNAIRE: Has run against much better horses for most of this season and was way too far back last time out at Delaware Park. He should appreciate the class relief he gets in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: PHI BETA EXPRESS, LENSTAR, SOUND OFF.

R6

Lionite
Slot
Venezuela

LIONITE: Chased the possible Hopeful favorite last time out in his debut for a barn whose runners sometimes need a race to get going. He could take a big step forward today, and his pedigree suggests the added distance won’t be a problem; SLOT: Ran on well late to be third in his debut behind a few live runners, including one that runs in Monday’s Hopeful. This is another that should improve stretching out at second asking; VENEZUELA: Seems the most live of all of the first-time starters in here. He fetched $300k at auction last year, has worked well, and has a strong female pedigree (his dam, second dam, and third dam were all stakes-winners).

R7

Always a Suspect
Gift Box
Servis entry

ALWAYS A SUSPECT: Came off a brief freshening last time out and ran well, finishing less than a length behind Woodward entrant Neolithic. There’s a lot of speed signed on here, so I’m inclined to pick a horse that doesn’t need to be on or near the lead to run well; GIFT BOX: Was a highly-regarded 3-year-old in 2016 and ran fourth behind Arrogate in the Travers. He hasn’t run since, and while his best race likely wins, he also probably wants to go much longer than this route; SERVIS ENTRY: I prefer STILL KRZ, who was third in the Decathlon behind two next-out winners. One of those horses was Vanderbilt winner El Deal, so there’s lots of back class here.

R8

Thais
Create a Dream
Dubb entry

THAIS: Makes her North American debut after showing plenty of class in Europe. Her prior connections thought enough of her to try her against boys in last year’s Group 1 Grand Criterium, and she’s since hit the board in two Group 3 events; CREATE A DREAM: Makes her 2017 debut after a solid 2-year-old campaign saw her win a stakes race and run fourth in two graded events, including the Albany at Royal Ascot. Chad Brown could easily run 1-2 in this spot; DUBB ENTRY: TRUTH IN THE LIES steps up in class after an impressive win in her first start for these connections, while LITERATA won a stakes race here last time out and is the one to beat if this gets rained off the turf.

R9

Bricks and Mortar
Yoshida
Voodoo Song

BRICKS AND MORTAR: Is 4-for-4 and looked great in winning a Grade 2 here earlier in the meet. He’s improved with every start, and is strictly the one to beat in here; YOSHIDA: Was beaten less than a length by my top pick last out and is another that seems to be improving with experience. He’s hinted at major talent in the past and can’t be ignored; VOODOO SONG: Has won three times at this meet and takes a step up in class in his search for a fourth local win in less than two months. I’m not sure he’s got the talent of my top two, but he figures to make the early lead, and at least you know he loves this turf course.

R10

Separationofpowers
Pure Silver
Lady Ivanka

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS: Was probably the most impressive maiden-breaker of the entire meet. She dominated an overmatched field earlier in the meet, and if she improves off of that performance, look out; PURE SILVER: Ran away with the Grade 2 Adirondack and will likely be favored. A repeat of that race would make her tough, but I’m just not sure what she beat that day; LADY IVANKA: Romped by eight in her unveiling last month. She looked great that day, but the runner-up threw in a clunker at next asking, and that’s a red flag.

R11

Gun Runner
Neolithic
Rally Cry

GUN RUNNER: Is arguably the best older horse in the country and romped at this route in the Grade 1 Whitney. He should sit another perfect trip, and his best race wins this handily; NEOLITHIC: Clearly needed the race last time out when all-out to top optional claimers going shorter than he probably wants to go. He was third behind Arrogate and Gun Runner in Dubai, and I think he’ll take a big step forward in his second start off the layoff; RALLY CRY: Was very sharp in winning the Alydar, and he’ll likely take most of the “wise guy” money from those looking to go against my top pick. However, that race was a considerable step forward, and he didn’t beat a lot there, so a bounce is very possible.

R12

Sarandia
War Flag
Estrechada

SARANDIA: Ran well in her North American debut when beaten less than three lengths in the Grade 1 Beverly D. by several top-notch runners. I’m taking the stance that that was a much tougher race than the ones others in here exit, and as such, she gets my top pick in a wide-open race; WAR FLAG: Was a close second in the Grade 3 Matchmaker, and among those she beat was Grade 1 winner Miss Temple City. She’s bred to go this route of ground, and note the presence of Jose Ortiz; ESTRECHADA: Beat many of these rivals in the Grade 3 Waya at a similar route. Javier Castellano rides back, and she merits respect.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 9/1/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $908.35

In my travels Wednesday night, I came across a thread in a popular horse racing group on Facebook. It discussed a young analyst making a claim about Arrogate’s historical standing, and someone who disagreed said something so ignorant that I had to respond in writing. 1,200 words later, the finished product is online at AndrewChampagne.com and all of my social media outlets.

If you’re of the mindset that the younger people in this game have opinions that can be easily discarded, I urge you to read it. If you’ve got a reaction to it, tweet me at @AndrewChampagne. This is something I’m extremely passionate about, and it may be one of the most important racing-related things I’ve ever written.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: If I could’ve updated my late Pick Four after scratches, I’d have thrown Ides of Arch into the first race following the defection of Grand Valour (and on a ticket I played in real-life, I did just that). However, in this section, that’s not possible, so the ticket I gave out fizzled right away. We dropped $18 after scratches destroyed the $37.50 ticket.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus my action on the seventh and ninth races. In the seventh, I’ll key horse-for-course #2 NEW YORK’S FINEST in $5 exactas above and below #8 WHATSTOTALKABOUT and #9 ANIMAL POSSE, and in the ninth, I’ll put $5 to win and place on longshot of the day #11 LEM ME DANCE.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Follow the Signs, Race 11
Longshot: Lem Me Dance, Race 9

R1

Enduring Honor
Augie’s Coming
Heliodoro

ENDURING HONOR: Has run well in each of his last four starts, including a close-up second last time out. The winner that day just missed earlier this week; AUGIE’S COMING: Was third in that race and hasn’t missed the board since February of 2016. He figures to be prominent early, and this trainer/jockey combination merits respect; HELIODORO: Stretches back out to two turns, and the last time he raced at such a route, he won at a price. The connections are cold, but this one may be worth a look underneath.

R2

Chipolina
Puttinyouonthenews
Radiant Beauty

CHIPOLINA: Had a series of very strong workouts at Keeneland earlier this summer for a barn that’s one of the best at winning with debuting runners. She’s bred up and down for turf, and she gets my nod in a very tough race; PUTTINYOUONTHENEWS: Comes back to the turf after running third in a race that was rained onto the main track earlier in the meet. Her debut on the grass was solid, and experience matters; RADIANT BEAUTY: Bounced in her second career start after a debut that was OK. She gets onto the turf, and given her pedigree (by Orb, out of a Mizzen Mast mare), that could be what she wants.

R3

Valhalla
Italian Syndicate
High Five Cotton

VALHALLA: Has five top-two finishes in six completed races this season, including a win last time out at this level. The likely race shape should benefit this late-running closer, and this smaller barn has quietly had a solid meet; ITALIAN SYNDICATE: Is one of many in here that will likely go early. He was third against slightly better two back and returns to the dirt after a failed turf experiment; HIGH FIVE COTTON: Ships up from Penn National and gets leading rider Jose Ortiz. This jockey riding for a small barn could signal good intentions, and he has some races from earlier this summer at Monmouth that were not bad.

R4

Draxhall Woods
All About Ashley
Imperio entry

DRAXHALL WOODS: Has been popular at the claim box, and for good reason. He was second at this level earlier in the meet, beat a better group two back, and gets a rider switch to Luis Saez; ALL ABOUT ASHLEY: Prevailed at this level and route last time out at a price and shouldn’t sneak up on anyone here. He did sit a great trip near a slow pace, but this barn has enjoyed a very strong meet; IMPERIO ENTRY: I prefer TUG OF WAR, who adds blinkers following a disappointing run last time out. He won at this distance two back, and a repeat of that effort puts him right there in a wide-open race.

R5

Avast Matey
Divine Interventio
Scarf It Down

AVAST MATEY: Showed some zip in a fast race for this level last time out. That was his first effort in more than two months, so he may have needed the race, and he shouldn’t have to go that fast early on in this spot; DIVINE INTERVENTIO: Drops in off of a series of allowance races, and this seems like a much softer spot. He was well behind a very impressive winner here earlier in the meet, and he should appreciate the class relief; SCARF IT DOWN: Was second against a weaker group last time out and is aggressively jumped up in class by a new barn. That could signal confidence, and the recent workouts at Belmont Park look sharp.

R6

Honor Way (MTO)
City Section
Madame Uno

CITY SECTION: Was a solid third at this level last time out when rating off of a very slow early pace. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, which means she should sit a great trip and have every chance to run them down late; MADAME UNO: Was second in the race my top pick exits, but was right on a very slow early pace and couldn’t finish the job. She could win, but I don’t usually like to pick horses on top following a perfect-trip loss; DYNAMIC WAR: Was well clear throughout in an easy score against maiden claimers. Judging by an OK second two back, she probably doesn’t need the lead to run well. DIRT SELECTIONS: HONOR WAY, QUESTEQ, JONQUIL.

R7

Marriedtothemusic (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Whatstotalkabout

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Is 3-for-3 sprinting on turf at Saratoga, and two of those wins have come at this meet. This is probably a better field than what he’s been running against, but he figures to be the main speed, and he could be tough to run down; WHATSTOTALKABOUT: Cuts back after a third-place finish going seven furlongs at Belmont. The Servis/Ortiz combination has been lethal this summer, and his best race could certainly win this; ANIMAL POSSE: Prevailed at this route last time out. His record looks much better if you toss the seven-furlong race two back, and Javier Castellano jumps aboard. DIRT SELECTIONS: MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, D’FUNNYTHING, PROPER FREUD.

R8

Zap Zap Zap
Tommy T
Pendleton

ZAP ZAP ZAP: Ran well in defeat last month, finishing second in a quick race for this level. This is a very difficult race, but a repeat of either of this one’s last two efforts would make him tough; TOMMY T: Was a good second in his debut for a barn whose horses sometimes need a race to get going. The winner came right back to win again, and the recent workouts here are very strong; PENDLETON: Fetched $600k at auction in 2015 and has worked well of late for powerhouse connections ahead of his debut. There are many first-time starters in here that could be runners, but I prefer this one the most of that group.

R9

Lem Me Dance
Dubb entry
Amazing Anne

LEM ME DANCE: Has improved in every start to date and made a strong middle move in her first effort going a distance of ground. This barn has quietly enjoyed a strong meet, and given the big field, we may get a square price; DUBB ENTRY: FROSTY LADY has won two in a row since being claimed by Jason Servis, while COTTON CANDY CUTIE is strictly the one to beat if this race gets rained off the turf; AMAZING ANNE: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that effort is usually enough for a piece of it at this level. She doesn’t win much, but if you’re playing the exotics, she can’t be ignored. DIRT SELECTIONS: COTTON CANDY CUTIE, ABOUT THAT BASE, MADISON BLUES.

R10

Dowse’s Beach
Big Rock
Dream Mover

DOWSE’S BEACH: Ran a huge race in defeat last time out in a Grade 2 at Woodbine. He’s found another level since being claimed by Brad Cox, and he’s the one to beat if he fires his best shot; BIG ROCK: Is undefeated at this route and comes in off a win over a solid field. He could sit a great trip just off the pace; DREAM MOVER: Debuted with authority earlier in the meet, rallying powerfully against a weaker group at this route. The rail draw is a bit of a concern, but if he steps forward in his second start off a long layoff, he could be right there when it matters most.

R11

Follow the Signs
O Captainmycaptain
Bartleby

FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Takes a big drop in class off of a race earlier this meet that wasn’t bad. He was beaten less than two lengths despite hitting the gate, and his usual effort would make him extremely difficult to beat; O CAPTAINMYCAPTAIN: Found open company too tough last time out in his first start for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. This should be a better level for him, and note the addition of both blinkers and Irad Ortiz; BARTLEBY: Needs luck to draw in off the AE list, but could be worth using underneath if he does. This barn hasn’t had a great meet, but he ran OK at this level a few weeks ago.

INTERLUDE: Standing Up for the Younger Crowd

…we were SO close.

I’m a pretty easygoing guy. Maybe it’s my California residence, maybe it’s that I have what I consider to be a dream job, or maybe it’s the fact that I’ve had a darned good year at the betting windows, but it takes a lot to tick me off, and for the first 35 days of the racing meet at Saratoga, that didn’t happen.

That was before Wednesday night, though, when I saw a post in a popular Facebook group called “Thoroughbred Racing in New York” that sent me over the edge. Full disclosure: I like and/or respect most of the group’s 2,600-plus members. I’ve met many of them on multiple occasions in various settings, and I consider the group’s chief moderator, Ernie Munick, a great ambassador for the sport and an even better person.

Here’s the full story. NYRA analyst Anthony Stabile, who I don’t know and have never met, went on TV after Arrogate’s second-place finish in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. He remarked that he was a member of the “younger generation,” and that not only did he consider Arrogate to be one of the best horses he’d ever seen, but that he also considered the big grey to be one of the best horses of all-time.

As comrade and Gulfstream Park track announcer Pete Aiello would say, “…and there we go with the antics.”

Outcry from some racing veterans against Stabile’s comments got pretty harsh. Before we go any further, here’s the crux of my column: I’m not here to argue for or against Stabile’s opinion. What I’m crusading against is the belief of some in the game that the opinions of those younger than them don’t carry weight, simply because of when the people carrying those views were born.

Nowhere was that more evident than in a comment I saw from a few days ago. The comment said, and I’m quoting here, “Stabile is just like so many younger fans who are blind to the past.”

I was fine before reading that. Every other comment, I could shrug off and move on from without a second thought. For some reason, that one hit me hard. It’s probably because I’m a nerd who has devoured most of the books on racing history that have been published in the last 20 years, but that comment reeked of such ignorance and snobbery that I could not possibly let it go unchecked.

I’ve always been a believer that most aspects of horse racing revolve around one central mission: Use what’s happened in the past to your advantage as you work forward. Gamblers do it every day reading the Daily Racing Form. Trainers do it in their barns when making split-second decisions on how to train their horses and where to run them. Owners and breeders analyze pedigrees and running lines on a constant basis when looking to breed or purchase horses. Marketing and business-types analyze handle numbers from every conceivable angle using data that would make your head spin (I worked for an ADW/television network for more than two years; trust me, I’d know). Heck, the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, an organization for which I’m proud to cast an annual ballot, is BUILT on that very concept.

Put simply, any claims that younger people in the industry don’t know their history are wrong. If we didn’t know our history, we wouldn’t have lasted five minutes, let alone thrived. I’m 28 years old, and I have no memory of seeing any great horse before the days of Cigar. Does that make me any less fit to express my opinion? Of course not.

I’ve won awards for my work in the business. I work for the leading authority on horse racing news in this country, and my resume includes stops at both HRTV and TVG. I’ve also been fortunate enough to continue my work for The Saratogian as that paper’s main handicapper, and I’m simply stating a fact when I tell you that any credible list of top public handicappers at that track (based there or anywhere else) has me on it. That isn’t arrogance, or bluster, or ego, or a strong personality talking. That’s a conclusion grounded in statistics and facts from the past several years.

So yeah. Forgive me if I took those comments just a wee bit personally.

I’m not alone in having a certain amount of gravitas in this business at a young age. The aforementioned Pete Aiello isn’t even halfway to social security, and he’s emerged as one of the top race-callers in the business. Joe Nevills, Nicole Russo, Matt Bernier, and David Aragona are similar-aged colleagues at the Daily Racing Form and TimeformUS, and I’d put their skills in their respective lines of work up against those of anyone else in the business. They’re that good, and they’re going to BE that good for a long, long time.

I’ve worked with Gino Buccola, Caleb Keller, Joaquin Jaime, Tom Cassidy, and Britney Eurton at TVG, along with a large number of people behind the scenes whose names you don’t know but who the operation would not work without. HRTV was much the same way. Once again, please let me stress that this is not a matter of if I agreed with those people all of the time. The point I’m trying to make is different, and it’s simple: You don’t get to bash the source of those comments simply because that source is younger than you’d like him/her to be.

I’ve heard this stuff before, and I’m tired of it. I’ve gotten hate mail from a Kentucky Derby-winning owner. I’ve been told by people that I’m not good at what I do, and in fact, being told that there were certain things I wasn’t good enough to do sparked the very existence of this site. Those who know me well will tell you that the best way to motivate me is to tell me I can’t do something. That flips a switch, and my priority instantly becomes to prove people wrong. Dislike me as much as you want, and I probably won’t care. Disrespect me, or try to discredit me, and I’m going to pull out all the stops to prove you wrong.

If it seems like I’ve got a chip on my shoulder sometimes, that’s probably accurate. The stuff about ego and bluster, though, is a bit overblown, and if you think my personality is that strong, understand that you’re seeing my competitive nature and a freakish desire to be the best at what I do, all the time. I know that doesn’t sit well with some people, and I’ve paid for that (for stories on that topic, check back in 30 years when I write my memoirs to pay for Pick Four tickets). I’ve come to terms with being labeled as “the motor-mouthed kid that doesn’t shut up,” but what I refuse to tolerate is the notion that anyone under the age of 35 or so shouldn’t be taken seriously solely because we’re younger than most of our contemporaries.

What was said struck a chord with me in all the wrong ways. I won’t speak for some of the people that I’ve mentioned in this column, but I will say that I refuse to be disregarded simply because I’m younger than most of the people in my field. I’ve done too much and worked too hard to be treated that way, and I know I’m not alone in putting in the time and effort.

To those who come here and value my input and thoughts: Thank you. You’re a large part of the reason I write this stuff. If you’re one of the people who thinks those younger than you are somehow inferior simply because of their age, think again. I won’t accept it, and I’ll be happy to tell you, and show you, that you’re wrong.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/31/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $926.35

Seeing a field of five signed on for Saturday’s Woodward was disappointing, but not surprising. Gun Runner is arguably the top older horse in training, and the defections of Grade 1 winners Shaman Ghost and Cupid weren’t small ones. However, the Grade 1 Spinaway only getting a field of five is insulting to that race’s history, as well as the history of the track it’s run at.

Saratoga has the reputation of a track where 2-year-old prospects burst onto the scene. To be fair, the field does include runaway Adirondack winner Pure Silver and flashy first-out graduates Separationofpowers and Lady Ivanka. However, with 2-year-old races run every single day this meet, a field double the size of what will line up Saturday wouldn’t have been shocking. Long story short: This race deserves better.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I was right in my theory that the late Pick Four would pay well. Unfortunately, I couldn’t come up with With Anticipation winner Catholic Boy despite having half the field on my ticket. As a result, we dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at the late Pick Four, and my ticket is built around #3 ORBOLUTION in the P.G. Johnson. My 50-cent ticket: 5,6,8,10,12 with 2,6,8 with 3 with 1,4,6,9,11.

TOTAL WAGERED: $37.50

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ultimateenticement, Race 5
Longshot: Saratoga Charlie, Race 10

R1

No Wunder
Giza
Balance the Budget

NO WUNDER: Was second at this level earlier in the meet and seems logical here. He found stakes company too tough two back, but he’s fit right in here before; GIZA: Was in good form before his last start, which saw him leave the course early. He should be prominent early for powerful connections; BALANCE THE BUDGET: Was fifth in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick last time out and gets significant class relief here. He led midway through that race and could make the lead in this spot at a bit of a price.

R2

Forge
Irst
One More Round

FORGE: Takes an aggressive drop in class after three starts against straight maidens, none of which were bad. The early pace last time out was probably too fast, and he should have an easier go of it here; IRST: Was a close second in his first start at this level a few weeks ago. Few are better with new acquisitions than Linda Rice, who claimed him out of that race; ONE MORE ROUND: Had a strange trip last time out in his first start off a long layoff. He’d traditionally been a speed horse, but was well off the pace in the slop. He fits with a more conventional go of it here.

R3

Control Group
Minsky Moment
Born for a Storm

CONTROL GROUP: Has won two in a row, including a wire-to-wire score against claiming company at this route earlier in the meet. This is a tougher spot, but he should make the lead from his inside post; MINSKY MOMENT: Has done very little wrong in four starts and has never finished outside the top two. He was a close second behind a winner who sat a perfect trip last time out, and these connections merit respect; BORN FOR A STORM: Tries two turns for the first time and has the running style to embrace such a route. He’s been a bit one-paced in two starts this meet, and he did run an OK second at a mile last year.

R4

Cozzy Spring
Shimmering Moon
Jules N Rome

COZZY SPRING: Won two in a row before a failed turf experiment last time out. There’s some speed signed on here, but she seems quickest of these out of the gate and is a real threat to go wire-to-wire; SHIMMERING MOON: Cruised home in her first start for Michelle Nevin earlier this meet. This may be a tougher group, but she has the potential to sit a perfect trip just off the speed; JULES N ROME: Comes back to state-bred competition after a third-place finish against open company. She loves this track, and while she may be a bit off her best form, she could easily get a piece of this.

R5

Ultimateenticement
Candy Zip
Five Star Bunt

ULTIMATEENTICEMENT: Was a strong second in his local debut to a well-meant Chad Brown trainee. He was four lengths clear of the rest of the field that day, and his experience is a big plus against this largely-inexperienced field; CANDY ZIP: Has worked well of late here for a trainer that can have debuting runners ready to roll. The August 3rd bullet jumps off the page, and he’s clearly one to consider; FIVE STAR BUNT: Was fourth behind two next-out winners last month (including a stakes winner). He’s had issues at the gate in each of his two outings, but Javier Castellano signing on could signal this barn’s intent.

R6

Hard Scramble (MTO)
Grand Sky
Rate for Me

GRAND SKY: Took a step forward first off the claim earlier this month, rolling home for powerful connections. He’s got two wins and a second at this route, and he should be rolling late; RATE FOR ME: Has won two in a row and seems to be figuring things out. He may not have beaten a tough field last time out, but this barn has had a strong meet, and further improvement would make him dangerous; HOLD ME BLACK: Was run down late in his local debut and had to settle for second despite a big effort. He nearly overcame a far-outside post, and today’s assignment is a bit more forgiving in that regard. DIRT SELECTIONS: HARD SCRAMBLE, PORTANDO, HOLD ME BLACK.

R7

Zonic (MTO)
Summer Mischief
Appealing Briefs

SUMMER MISCHIEF: Showed improved early speed last time out, pressing a decent pace and hanging on for third. This race doesn’t appear to have a lot of speed signed on, and he could clear most of these going into the first turn; APPEALING BRIEFS: Was second in that same race, but sat a much better trip rating well off the pace. He seems to have a habit of running second, and it wouldn’t be too shocking if he breaks through; GRAND VALOUR: Was distanced early in his debut but somehow rallied to salvage fourth, making up nearly 14 lengths in 5 1/2 furlongs. This is a tougher group, and Castellano taking off isn’t encouraging, but I need to throw him in. DIRT SELECTIONS: ZONIC, GRAND VALOUR, CATCH A CAB.

R8

Jupiter Rising
Storm Prophet
Manifest Destiny

JUPITER RISING: Was probably left with too much to do last time out in his first try against winners. He’s since been transferred to the Todd Pletcher barn, and two turns shouldn’t be a problem; STORM PROPHET: Is extremely consistent, but has not won since October of 2015. His usual effort almost certainly gets him a piece of it, but I have a tough time endorsing horses like this on top; MANIFEST DESTINY: Hasn’t won since his debut, but he’s woken up a bit going long on turf. He figures to be prominent early, and note that he beat this race’s likely favorite home last time out.

R9

Orbolution
Mentality
Life Time Citizen

ORBOLUTION: Woke up last time out in her turf debut, rolling home against overmatched maidens. She’s one of just two in here with two-turn experience, and continued development would make her tough to beat; MENTALITY: Went wire-to-wire in her debut downstate back in June and stretches out here. The pedigree suggests she should handle the added distance, and she’ll likely make the lead early on; LIFE TIME CITIZEN: Has a running style that indicates she’ll love two turns. She was one-paced in a similar-level race going shorter a few weeks ago, so this trip could suit her.

R10

Bunyaan
Hy Brasil
Saratoga Charlie

BUNYAAN: Was an OK second going two turns last month and makes his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. She’s in the midst of a stellar meet, and this one gets the nod in a wide-open finale; HY BRASIL: Took advantage of the class drop last time out with a win in his first start for a tag. His race three back at this distance wasn’t horrible, and this barn merits respect; SARATOGA CHARLIE: Figures to be a big price off of two clunkers, but those races came against much better horses. Additionally, he’s done some of his best work at this distance, with a win and a second in two starts at seven furlongs.