Andrew Champagne | Andrew Champagne

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/30/17

Posted on August 29, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $956.35

It was great to be back east for a week. I saw my family, I picked some winners, and I ate good pizza, which, as any of you who have spent time on the west coast know, is very rare out there. However, there’s a concerning epidemic that I need to address, and unfortunately, I must be firm.

If you are a male heading to the track, and you feel the urge to wear pants or shorts that would qualify as “salmon?” Don’t. Just don’t. They look ridiculous, and you will be laughed at behind your back. I’m considering channeling Moe Drabowsky (a baseball player perhaps best-recalled for the prank known as “the hot foot”) and setting said pants on fire while people are wearing them. Consider yourselves warned ahead of my next trip east, whenever that may be.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: My early doubles went up in smoke when Discretionary Marq ran second in the opener, but we did cash a ticket later on in the card. Unfortunately, English Soul was bet down to 5/2 off a 15-1 morning line, so when she ran second, our $3 win-place-show stab only returned $11.85. In total, we dropped $17.15.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I think the late Pick Four has the potential to pay well, so I’ll focus my energy there. My 50-cent ticket reads thusly (numbers, not names, so as to save space): 1,2,3,6,11 with 6 with 4,7,8,9,10,11 with 6,9.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Mr. Crow, Race 8
Longshot: Barrel of Dreams, Race 7

Special Risk
Renewal
Communion Money

SPECIAL RISK: Is 0-for-12, and that’s usually too many chances for my taste, but she takes a considerable drop in class to the lowest level she’s ever run at. These connections are aggressive, and her best race likely wins this; RENEWAL: Is a regally-bred 3-year-old filly, so it’s very strange to see her debut for a $20k tag. She’s by Speightstown, and out of a Malibu Moon mare, and while the connections merit respect, her being offered up for a fifth of her purchase price is a red flag; COMMUNION MONEY: Didn’t take to the turf last time out and returns to her preferred surface. She figures to be prominent early.

Call Provision
Tasit
Three Diamonds entry

CALL PROVISION: Was a good second earlier in the meet at this level and route. There appears to be some pace signed on here, which would benefit this one given his late-running style; TASIT: Was beaten less than two lengths by my top pick last time out. He’s been gelded since that effort, and that could make a significant difference; THREE DIAMONDS ENTRY: ALTAR BOY was a good second in his last turf marathon effort, while BONUS POINTS looms large if this race is rained off the turf and onto the main track. DIRT SELECTIONS: BONUS POINTS, ROYAL POSSE, TASIT.

Core Portfolio
Dunk a Din
Erik the Red

CORE PORTFOLIO: Gets my reluctant top pick in a race that can be described as a pari-mutuel mess. Many of these come out of races from earlier in the meet that are less than inspiring, and this one figures to get an easy early lead while dropping significantly in class; DUNK A DIN: Outlasted similar foes earlier in the meet and was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who does strong work with new acquisitions; ERIK THE RED: Gets a two-turn route of ground, and he ran some solid races at similar routes this past winter at Aqueduct. Maybe he preferred the inner as opposed to two turns, but at his likely price, I’m inclined to use him in exotics.

Subic Bay
More Than a Legend
Schwartz entry

SUBIC BAY: Showed some early zip in a turf marathon last month and cuts back to the route she probably wants. This spot also represents a slight class drop, which should help; MORE THAN A LEGEND: Was an OK third at this route earlier in the meet and adds blinkers here. The rider switch to Luis Saez is notable, as is her close second at this level last summer; SCHWARTZ ENTRY: I prefer ETERNAL VOW, who has a race under her belt and goes to the Todd Pletcher barn. DIRT SELECTIONS: TRANSACTION TAX, SCHWARTZ ENTRY, FOREIGN AFFAIR.

Avery Maeve
Hannah’s Smile
Misty On Pointe

AVERY MAEVE: Did everything but win last time out at this level and route. She missed by just a head to an OK turf sprinter despite being herded turning for home, and she beat a number of today’s rivals in that spot; HANNAH’S SMILE: Also exits that race, and is another that had an adventurous trip that day. The outside post is a bit of a concern, but note that she almost overcame this post last time out; MISTY ON POINTE: Ships up from Laurel Park for connections that have done well here this summer. That turf course has its quirks, but she’s 2-for-2 at this distance and should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: R LUCKY CHARM, TARQUINIA, MARNESIA BIG GIRL.

Seam
Presumptuous
Wise Strike

SEAM: Ran well in her debut when closing to be second in the slop at Gulfstream. She hasn’t been seen since, but she sports a recent bullet drill and there should be some pace for her to run at; PRESUMPTUOUS: Is 0-for-13 lifetime, but has run well twice at this meet. Luis Saez gets on, and this barn has quietly had a very solid meet to this point; WISE STRIKE: Missed by a neck going longer at Monmouth and cuts back for formidable connections. She’s shown zip in several recent workouts and figures to be prominent early.

Stay Fond (MTO)
Barrel of Dreams
Durable Goods

BARREL OF DREAMS: Loves Saratoga and should sit a perfect trip in this spot. She’s 3-for-4 over this turf course, including a win earlier this month, and there isn’t much other quality speed signed on; DURABLE GOODS: Faces winners for the first time after graduating last month. The pedigree says today’s added distance won’t be a problem, and this trainer/jockey tandem has been on fire this meet; PALINODIE: Hasn’t been seen since November, when she was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. She’s shown talent, and while she may need this race, anything close to her best would put her right there. DIRT SELECTIONS: STAY FOND, JUST GOT OUT, BARREL OF DREAMS.

Mr. Crow
Patternrecognition
Cavil

MR. CROW: Earned a freaky 109 Beyer Speed Figure when demolishing maidens early in the meet. This is a pretty tough race for this level, but this colt is strictly the one to beat; PATTERNRECOGNITION: Has hooked stakes-quality opposition in both prior starts at this level. There’s no shame in running second to Takaful and Coal Front, and he merits respect; CAVIL: Could be worth a look underneath. He likely needed his last race, and he had a horrible trip that day when chasing a good-looking winner. Improvement off that effort is logical, and he may be a square price.

Evaluator
Trumpi
Earth

EVALUATOR: Circled the field in his debut and won going away. Yes, he did that against state-breds, but the third-place finisher has since come back to win, and if he gets any pace to run at, he figures to be rolling late; TRUMPI: Wired the field at big odds in his debut, and he won’t be sneaking up on anyone here. The post position is not ideal, but he could be quick enough to clear most of the field early; EARTH: Was beaten at 3/5 in a stakes race at Monmouth last time out. His pedigree suggests he’ll love this distance, but the last-out clunker is a bit of a concern.

R10

Under Suspicion
Salty Smile
Climb the Ladder

UNDER SUSPICION: Was bet in her debut and ran well in defeat. She dueled early through a fast pace in the mud before finishing third, all for a barn whose first-time starters usually need the race. She should improve here; SALTY SMILE: Has worked very well ahead of her debut for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. It’s tough to go seven furlongs at first asking, but she could be ready to run right away; CLIMB THE LADDER: Was a distant second behind a runaway winner here last month, but she beat the rest of the field by six lengths. There are no such monsters here, so she could take another step forward.

THE DARK DAY FILES: Trying to Make Sense of the 3-Year-Old Male Division

Posted on August 28, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

I was really, REALLY hoping I didn’t have to write this column.

You see, like pretty much everyone else, I’ve been hoping for months that a 3-year-old would separate himself from the rest of the division. Briefly, Always Dreaming did that, but he was knocked off the mountaintop just as quickly as he ascended it. Ever since the Preakness, the division has been shrouded in confusion, with big efforts often followed by duds that only serve to make things more difficult to decipher.

In what doubled as a dream come true for the NYRA marketing department, the three winners of the three Triple Crown races lined up in last Saturday’s Travers. Much like the last time this happened (1982), though, the race wasn’t won by one of those horses. West Coast, whose lone graded stakes win before the Midsummer Derby came at Los Alamitos against what would charitably be called a mediocre bunch, went wire-to-wire under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith and earned the top Beyer Speed Figure of any 3-year-old router to this point in the season.

I’ll attempt to decipher the division here. Essentially, this acts as a quick and dirty summary of the main players, as well as what they likely need to do to emerge as a contender for the division’s Eclipse Award. I only considered horses that had won at least one Grade 1 race in 2017, which means horses like 2-3 Travers finishers Gunnevera and Irap, as well as Jim Dandy winner Good Samaritan, are out.

Disagree? Think I missed something? Shoot me a message, and I’ll be happy to discuss what I think.

West Coast

Claim to Fame: Beat the winners of all three Triple Crown races in the Travers.

Drawbacks: Hasn’t done much else to this point. He was visually impressive in both stakes wins earlier in the year, but he didn’t beat many quality foes in either spot.

Eclipse Chances: High. A win in either the Pennsylvania Derby (against 3-year-olds) or the Jockey Club Gold Cup (against older horses) would give him a resume very few in the division could match. Fun fact: If West Coast wins the award, this will mark the third time in the last five years that it has gone to a horse that did not win a Triple Crown race. Before Will Take Charge won in 2013 despite lacking such a win, the last thoroughbred to pull it off was Tiznow, who did so in 2000.

Always Dreaming

Claim to Fame: Won the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby back-to-back, both by daylight.

Drawbacks: Has failed to win any of his three subsequent starts. I’m a bit higher on his Jim Dandy than most (he did salvage third over a very tiring track), but his Preakness and Travers efforts were lousy.

Eclipse Chances: Higher than you may think. As of this writing, no active 3-year-old can match his top-end wins, and even if he never runs again (which is possible, maybe even likely), there’s a chance he’ll end the year as this season’s only 3-year-old male with multiple Grade 1 wins on dirt. That would make him a popular “hold your nose” vote.

Tapwrit

Claim to Fame: Won the Belmont, and did so in impressive fashion. He and runner-up Irish War Cry were well clear of the rest of the field.

Drawbacks: He’s only won twice, and while he didn’t run terribly in the Travers, he was fourth behind three horses that had previously combined for zero Grade 1 victories to this point in the season.

Eclipse Chances: Medium. There’s a chance he needed the Travers off a 12-week layoff, and a run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup would mean a chance at another Grade 1 victory at the scene of his greatest triumph to date. Such a win would give him two signature victories and would put him squarely in the middle of the conversation ahead of the Breeders’ Cup.

Oscar Performance

Claim to Fame: Has won back-to-back Grade 1 races, and is the only 3-year-old male in the country besides Always Dreaming with two such wins on his resume this year.

Drawbacks: He’s a turf horse.

Eclipse Chances: None most years, but this year, he’s got a shot. If ever there was a year for an unconventional winner of this award, it’s 2017, and a win over older horses would do wonders for his candidacy. He could get such a victory in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch, provided his connections opt to bypass the Grade 3 Hill Prince, which boasts a similar purse and (likely) much less in the way of opposition. If he wins the Hirsch and runs well in the Breeders’ Cup (no easy task, since the Turf’s distance would be uncharted territory for him and the Mile is never an easy race to win), it would be impossible to keep him out of this discussion.

Classic Empire

Claim to Fame: When he’s right, he’s probably the best horse in this division in terms of pure talent. He won the Arkansas Derby, was the victim of a lousy trip when fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and just missed in the Preakness…

Drawbacks: …but he hasn’t been seen since. His connections had eyed the Pennsylvania Derby, but those plans fell through.

Eclipse Chances: Low. On one hand, if this horse hangs on in the Preakness, we’re probably not having this conversation (it’s at least much more concentrated in nature). On the other hand, how can one consider this horse a contender when he hasn’t raced since mid-May? Maybe he runs again in either the Breeders’ Cup or the Cigar Mile. Maybe he doesn’t and we’ve seen the last of him. If the latter is the case, it’s a real shame.

Practical Joke

Claim to Fame: Won the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day, and an argument can be made that he’s the best 3-year-old in the country at what he does.

Drawbacks: What he does is run one turn. He’s not the same horse going a conventional, two-turn route of ground.

Eclipse Chances: Low, and it’s no fault of the horse or his connections. If the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile was contested around one turn (like it will be next year at Churchill Downs), or if the Sprint was seven furlongs and not six, he would be in a great spot. However, he’s between distances and will need to overcome the lack of an ideal race on racing’s biggest weekend. A Sprint win would almost certainly vault him to the head of the class, and a Dirt Mile win would also be helpful, but if he loses either race and salvages the Cigar Mile or Malibu, would that be enough of a resume? I don’t think so.

Girvin

Claim to Fame: Won the Grade 1 Haskell over a solid group, which included next-out Jerkens winner Practical Joke and next-out Shared Belief winner Battle of Midway. Earlier this season, he also captured the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes.

Drawbacks: Misfired in both the Travers and the Kentucky Derby, which were prime opportunities for him to show he belongs at the top of this division.

Eclipse Chances: Slim. Most years, he’d already be eliminated, counted out as a nice horse, but not one of the best. However, if he wins the Pennsylvania Derby, all of a sudden, we’ve got a horse that’s won two Grade 1’s, two Grade 2’s, and a lot of money. Is it unlikely? Yes, but then again, so was his Haskell win.

Cloud Computing

Claim to Fame: Reeled in Classic Empire in the Preakness, giving Chad Brown his first win in a Triple Crown race.

Drawbacks: He’s done nothing since then, throwing in two clunkers at Saratoga.

Eclipse Chances: Slim to none. If he comes back with a winning effort in a Breeders’ Cup prep race, we can more easily throw out the Saratoga races. However, those races were dreadful, and it’s tough to swallow something like that in this sort of a discussion.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/28/17

Posted on August 28, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $973.50

I had such a great time coming to the track on Friday that I’m making a return trip Monday. It’s my last full day in New York before heading back to California, and once again, it promises to be a fun time. The Monday card is pretty tough from start to finish, and that includes the Better Talk Now, which includes several promising 3-year-olds going two turns on the turf. I’m hoping I can head back to the west coast with some money in my pocket!

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: For the fifth straight day, we cashed a ticket, but for the first time in almost a week, we lost money. One of our $10 doubles hit, but it was the one that returned a paltry $2.05 for every dollar bet. As such, we dropped $19.50.

MONDAY’S PLAY: Once again, I thought this was a very tough card, with very few standouts and, thusly, very few spots to take a stand with a single. I’ll key my best bet in the opener, singling #5 DISCRETIONARY MARQ in $10 doubles with #2 ISOTOPE and #8 NORTH EIGHT STREET. Additionally, I’ll put $3 across the board on my longshot of the day, #5 ENGLISH SOUL in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $29

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Discretionary Marq, Race 1
Longshot: English Soul, Race 9

Discretionary Marq
Heart in Hand
Speightful Kitten

DISCRETIONARY MARQ: Was extremely impressive in defeat in his debut, when he rallied from 10 lengths back to miss by just a neck. That sort of trip is uncommon for debuting runners, and any improvement off of that performance would make him very tough to beat; HEART IN HAND: Is well-bred and boasts some strong workouts ahead of his debut, including a turf bullet last month on the training track. Linda Rice’s barn is firing on all cylinders here; SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN: Showed speed in his first start off a long layoff, when he faded to fifth behind eventual stakes winner Crawdaddy. He was third at this route last summer and figures to be prominent early.

Isotope
North Eight Street
Easy Way Out

ISOTOPE: Takes a small class drop second off a brief freshening for a barn that’s due to get going. Her win two back was very impressive, and she could sit a dream trip rating just off the pace; NORTH EIGHT STREET: Ran an improved race when dropping to this level last time out. She was second after setting the early pace, and while she hasn’t won in a while, a repeat of that effort would make her competitive here; EASY WAY OUT: Merits respect if you can find a reason to toss the last-out effort. She takes a big drop, and while a return to form would make her tough, that clunker in her lone local start leads me to go elsewhere on top.

A Fleet Attitude
Rodriguez entry
Cautious Giant

A FLEET ATTITUDE: Ran into two stakes-quality horses last time out at Parx. That form sometimes has issues traveling north, but note that he won two back at Belmont off a long layoff against similar-quality foes to what he’ll face here; RODRIGUEZ ENTRY: I prefer MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC, who loves Saratoga and has spent most of his career running against better horses. He may not be quite the horse he was in 2014 or 2015, but he should be prominent early; CAUTIOUS GIANT: Became the answer to a great trivia question when his shoe got caught in Gun Runner’s tail during the Whitney. He cuts back to his preferred distance, and it’s worth noting that he’s knocked heads with some top sprinters during his career.

Cleo
Bixby Lou
Aife

CLEO: Drops down in class off of a race that was rained off the turf. That’s a throw-out, and I think you can toss the race two back as well, since it came off a 10-month layoff. She chased eventual Grade 1 winner Dream Dancing here last summer, and I think she wakes up today; BIXBY LOU: Was claimed by Linda Rice last time out and tries the turf for the first time. I love when trainers reach in with a plan in mind, and she may wind up on the lead in this spot; AIFE: Has run two OK races against straight maidens at Monmouth. She could sit a nice trip just off the pace beneath one of the top riders on the circuit.

Honor Up
Big Gemmy
Mango M

HONOR UP: Didn’t run terribly in his debut, when he was fourth behind a well-meant Chad Brown trainee. He should like the added distance here, and this barn’s runners tend to improve with experience; BIG GEMMY: Was bet in his debut last month, but got off to a horrible start. He did salvage fifth that day, and the winner came back to win a state-bred stakes race Friday; MANGO M: Was a $250k auction purchase and has been working very well lately ahead of his debut. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because Shug McGaughey’s horses usually need a race or two to get going.

Hot and Heavy
Thirsty Actor
Candy Asset

HOT AND HEAVY: Seems to be the only true speed horse in this field, and this kind of horse is very dangerous on the inner turf. He exits a stakes race at Monmouth and should appreciate the class drop; THIRSTY ACTOR: Is 2-for-2 since switching to the lawn, with both wins coming at Monmouth. This is a class test for him, but he’s done nothing wrong on this surface to date; CANDY ASSET: Won on debut for Todd Pletcher in April at Gulfstream. This is a very different kind of turf course, but this barn can never be ignored.

Fire Key
Quality Time
Orecchiette

FIRE KEY: Thumped state-bred company earlier this month at this route, and in fact hasn’t run a bad race sprinting on turf. There’s some speed signed on, and this filly should sit a perfect stalking trip; QUALITY TIME: Makes her U.S. debut and gets Lasix for the first time. She hasn’t run in more than a year, but she was fourth in a Group 3 overseas last spring, so talent is certainly present; ORECCHIETTE: Set a fast early pace at this route two weeks ago and hung on for third money. She won’t be alone on the front end, but of the likely frontrunners in here, I prefer her the most.

Snap Decision
Holiday Stone
Blind Ambition

SNAP DECISION: Has not run a bad race this year and comes in off a fourth-place finish in a Grade 2. That race featured some of the best 3-year-old turf horses on the east coast, and this is certainly a softer spot for a horse that’s got plenty of talent; HOLIDAY STONE: Was beaten just a length last time out in a similar stakes race at Belmont. He’s another that’s knocked heads with some tough runners, and he was beaten just a half-length in the Grade 3 Transylvania this past spring at Keeneland; BLIND AMBITION: Won a stakes race going shorter earlier this met. He did win going two turns on grass three back, but it’s worth noting he had a dream trip that day, one he likely won’t get in this spot.

Blue Atlas
Lady of Miracles
English Soul

BLUE ATLAS: Needs luck to draw in, but will be tough to beat if he does. He found two turns to be too far last time out, and the horse that ran second there came back to graduate on Friday; LADY OF MIRACLES: Was a good second at this route in her debut behind a stakes-placed runner. There may not have been much else in that field, but improvement is logical at second asking despite the challenging post; ENGLISH SOUL: Is bred up and down for turf and has worked well here for a smaller barn that’s tasted some success this summer. She may want even longer, but anywhere close to her 15-1 morning line odds could be a considerable overlay.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/27/17

Posted on August 26, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $992

Hey, Eclipse Award voters? Good freaking luck.

That was the message delivered in the Travers, when West Coast became racing’s newest Grade 1 winner and gave the Mike Smith/Bob Baffert duo a second straight win in the Midsummer Derby. Always Dreaming faded, Cloud Computing never fired, and Tapwrit was one-paced while finishing fourth.

Who’s your Champion 3-Year-Old Male? Your guess is as good as mine. The door is wide-open for an unconventional winner, like turf specialist Oscar Performance or Allen Jerkens winner Practical Joke. Here’s the bigger, obviously-sarcastic question: If no deserving winner emerges, can voters decide to just not give out the award for a year?

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We made it four winning days in a row with our win-place strategy. Of the four horses we gave out, three won, all at 6-1 odds or higher. Ultimately, our $40 investment returned $180.50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card and play doubles starting and ending with #5 PORTFOLIO MANAGER in the third. My $10 bets use the Chad Brown and Mike Maker-trained entries in the second and #3 TRUTH IN THE LIES and #6 CINDER in the fourth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Portfolio Manager, Race 3
Longshot: Amity, Race 10

Thirst for Victory
Notorious
Caniform

THIRST FOR VICTORY: Drops way down in class for aggressive connections that have won lots of races with this move in the past. He broke his maiden sprinting here last year, and he’s been running against much better horses; NOTORIOUS: Returns from a long layoff for a new barn and drops to the lowest level he’s ever run at. The workout pattern here is steady, and his best race makes him a player; CANIFORM: Won here last week in his first start for Steve Asmussen. That race came against a weaker group, but he’s a consistent sort that merits a look.

Brown entry
Maker entry
Spring On Curlin

BROWN ENTRY: I prefer DATA ROOM, who stretches back out to two turns and should embrace such a switch. His two duds both came at Belmont in one-turn races, and he hooked some tough competition in some of his prior efforts; MAKER ENTRY: I most fancy MARKITOFF, who was second at this level earlier in the meet behind a runaway winner. His races at this level have been fine, and note the rider switch to Luis Saez; SPRING ON CURLIN: Hasn’t won in a while, but drops in for a tag for the first time and exits a swiftly-run race at Belmont. This barn has quietly had an excellent meet.

Portfolio Manager
Harlan Punch
Karma Delight

PORTFOLIO MANAGER: Was fourth in a classy allowance race won by a good 3-year-old named Petrov earlier in the meet. He drops in for a tag for the first time and is met by a less-than-imposing group; HARLAN PUNCH: Hasn’t won since 2015 and ships in for a high-percentage barn that’s been unusually cold this meet. He’s been second against similar in each of his last two starts at Churchill; KARMA DELIGHT: Cruised against maiden claimers last time out and faces winners for the first time in his first start for Steve Asmussen. I’m not sure what he beat that day, but a repeat effort probably gets him a piece of this.

Just Got Out (MTO)
Truth in the Lies
Cinder

TRUTH IN THE LIES: Was a close-up fourth behind a next-out winner at this level last time, and was claimed out of that race by Jason Servis. He and Irad Ortiz have done spectacular work together this meet, and they team up on this one; CINDER: Gets a huge rider switch to Javier Castellano after a strange trip last time out. She probably needs a pace to run at, but she should be going well late; HOLD ME DOWN: Has hit the board in five of six starts this season and merits a look shipping in from Parx. Having said that, she’s 0-for-12 on turf, so if the morning line holds up, I’ll look elsewhere for value. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, HOLD ME DOWN, RANGER LADY.

Everybody Loves Me
Quick Quick Quick
Twofer

EVERYBODY LOVES ME: Was second behind a runaway winner last time out in her debut, and that came for a barn whose horses often need a race or two to get going. Improvement is logical at second asking, and the blinkers come off this speedy horse, which is usually a plus; QUICK QUICK QUICK: Was also second in her debut, and she did so while rallying from off the pace, which is uncommon for first-time starters to successfully do. This is another barn whose horses often improve with experience; TWOFER: Fetched $290k at auction earlier this year and has worked well of late ahead of her unveiling. This is an outfit that has stellar numbers with debuting runners.

Impazible Creek
Frost Wise
She’sakittykat

IMPAZIBLE CREEK: Boasts an improving work pattern ahead of her debut and has attracted Javier Castellano to ride for a fairly small barn, which is intriguing. The rail draw isn’t ideal, but it’s not like she’s lining up against any monsters in this spot; FROST WISE: Figures to be prominent early in a race that otherwise seems devoid of early speed. She’s had issues holding on to early leads of late, but she’ll likely have a very easy trip here; SHE’SAKITTYKAT: Was forced to rate behind a slow pace last time out, but rallied for third. However, she’ll likely face a similar situation today, albeit for powerful connections.

First Appeal
Treatherlikestar
Swayed

FIRST APPEAL: Has run well here twice this summer, with a win and a solid third-place finish. She’s won three of four since going to trainer Linda Rice, and first-call rider Jose Ortiz will be aboard; TREATHERLIKESTAR: Broke through for her first win in a while last time out in her local debut. That was against a weaker field, but horses that like this route of ground can’t be thrown out; SWAYED: Threw in a clunker in a race rained off the turf last time out, but was a close-up third two back at this level and route. The rail draw is a concern, but we may get a bit of a price on a horse that’s run well at these conditions before.

Astounding
Jupiter Rising
Any Questions

ASTOUNDING: Hasn’t run a bad race on the lawn in four such starts and was second at this level earlier this month. This is another Servis/Ortiz collaboration, and his usual race would make him the one to beat; JUPITER RISING: Won two back against maiden claimers and was probably left with too much to do late last time out against winners. Todd Pletcher takes over the training duties, and it’s not often we get this sort of a price on a horse from that barn; ANY QUESTIONS: Has won two of his last three, including a win against weaker company here earlier in the meet. David Jacobson does strong work with new acquisitions, and Runhappy’s little brother could improve in his first start for that outfit.

Miss Ella
Fair Point
Ava’s Kitten

MISS ELLA: Has not finished worse than second in three starts at Saratoga, and that record includes a win in last month’s Caress Stakes. There’s plenty of pace in this race, and she could come running late in a race that came up very tough for this level; FAIR POINT: Meets my top selection once again after running second to her in the Caress. Both horses ran well that day, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if this one turns the tables; AVA’S KITTEN: Is another that likes Saratoga, having won two of four local starts. That includes a win in an optional claimer at this route, and this distance seems to suit her.

R10

Data Dependent
Amity
Reality Queen

DATA DEPENDENT: Is bred up and down for turf. She’s by More Than Ready and out of a Street Cry mare, and she’s worked very well for Chad Brown ahead of her debut; AMITY: Is listed at 20-1, and anywhere close to that price is an overlay. Her dam is a half to Forever Together, who won an Eclipse Award as the Champion Female Turf Horse of 2008, and this one has worked pretty well for a top-notch barn ahead of her unveiling; REALITY QUEEN: Showed some early zip in her turf debut last time out, and she’s the only proven early speed in this field. The rider switch to Luis Saez is notable, and she figures to be prominent early on.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: Travers Day (8/26/17)

Posted on August 25, 2017 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL: $851.50

Happy Travers Day, everyone! Before we get into the antics and shenanigans, I’d genuinely like to wish all of you luck. This may be the best wagering card we see all year in New York, and there’s no shortage of live longshots on the program.

That said, I have to chuckle at NYRA’s “no running” edict. As I mentioned last year around this time, all it apparently takes to turn some at the track into middle school hall monitors is one big day. No running? What about jogging, speed-walking, power-walking, or cantering? Where, precisely, is the line drawn?

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We extended our winning streak in this section to three by maximizing value on Sunset Ridge. Our Pick Five connected for $1, our Pick Four hit for 50 cents, and our $40 investment returned $155 and change.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: Remember how I said there’s no shortage of longshots? I’ll play four horses to win and place, and it may only take one winner for it to be a profitable day. The horses I’ll put #5 to win and place on are as follows: KABANG (Race 2), PROFITEER (Race 5), WEST COAST (Race 11), and MOHICAN (Race 13).

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Songbird, Race 6
Longshot: Kabang, Race 2

Good Magic
Hazit
High North

GOOD MAGIC: Was a million dollar baby at last year’s Keeneland September sale, and for good reason. He’s by Curlin, and boasts a female family that’s one of the best you’ll ever see. He’s worked to that breeding and should be ready; HAZIT: Is another that’s bred to run and debuts for high-percentage connections. His dam was a graded stakes-winning sprinter, and he’s got every right to be precocious; HIGH NORTH: Is a half to Grade 2 winner Benner Island and has a pair of strong local workouts. Irad Ortiz likely had options, and he lands on this $230k yearling purchase.

Uncle Mojo (MTO)
Kabang
Focus Group

KABANG: Has won three of his last four, with the most recent victory coming earlier this meet in a swiftly-run starter allowance. There’s some pace signed on here, which bodes well for this one’s late kick; FOCUS GROUP: Broke through at third asking last time out, graduation in a much longer race. Irad stays aboard for Chad Brown, and at least you know the distance shouldn’t be a problem; RICHMOND STREET: Ran a clunker last time out, but that was his second race off a long layoff, so it could’ve just been a bounce. His race two back was solid, and he ran well here twice last summer. DIRT SELECTIONS: UNCLE MOJO, HOLIDAY BONUS, SON OF A SAINT.

Neepawa
Strike Me Down
Chirping

NEEPAWA: Was a fast-closing third in his debut, which came at this route. The post position is a problem, but of those that have run before, he boasts the most impressive effort; STRIKE ME DOWN: Is bred up and down to be a strong turf horse. His dam won a Grade 2 on turf and threw Grade 3 winner Golden Sabre, and this gray has turned heads in the mornings; CHIRPING: Ran a sneaky race in his debut, rallying late for fifth and showing he likely wants more ground. He gets that in this spot and can’t be ignored at a price.

Ostrolenka
Sticksstatelydude
Candid Desire

OSTROLENKA: Has run some of his best races since being claimed earlier this year by David Jacobson. He was a close-up second at this route against a solid sprinter, and the likely race shape sets up for a closer like him; STICKSSTATELYDUDE: Returns to the races after a nine-month break and has back class that must be respected. This is certainly shorter than he wants to go, but he did break his maiden going six furlongs here as a 2-year-old; CANDID DESIRE: Is another that merits a look given the likely shape of the race (not to mention his likely odds). He ran fourth to Stallwalkin’ Dude last time out after a brief freshening, and a quick look at the running lines shows he beat THREEFIVEINDIA (who could be the favorite or second choice here) three back.

Cloontia
Profiteer
Ray’s The Bar

CLOONTIA: Showed a new dimension last time out, rating well off the leader and rallying to win a lesser allowance race. He steps up in class, but this is a horse that likes to win, and these connections merit respect; PROFITEER: Hasn’t been seen since April, when he trailed in the Grade 3 Transylvania. It’s possible he just didn’t take to the Keeneland turf course, and he’s a major player if he runs back to his other grass races; RAY’S THE BAR: Almost certainly needed his 2017 debut, so I’m drawing a line through it. He’s been gelded since that effort, and he has significant back class.

Songbird
Forever Unbridled
Going for Broke

SONGBIRD: Is the length of Beholder’s nose away from being undefeated and will go for her 10th Grade 1 victory here. No other rival has the early speed to go with her, and I think she’ll be incredibly tough to run down late; FOREVER UNBRIDLED: Is extremely tough on her best day. Remember, she was beaten less than two lengths by Songbird in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and while the race shape doesn’t figure to help her, she could come running late; GOING FOR BROKE: Made stablemate Carina Mia work last time out in the Shine Again, and that distance was shorter than she’s accustomed to going. She chased Songbird in last year’s Alabama and figures to get a piece of this purse as well.

Paulassilverlining
Carina Mia
Highway Star

PAULASSILVERLINING: Has won four in a row, including the Grade 2 Honorable Miss earlier this meet. There’s a shocking lack of early speed signed on here, and she could sit a dream trip on or near a slow pace; CARINA MIA: Fended off a game stablemate at this route earlier in the month and could improve in her second start for Chad Brown. The issue here is that my top selection has beaten her in both of their prior meetings; HIGHWAY STAR: Is 3-for-3 going seven furlongs and chased Songbird and Paid Up Subscriber home last time out in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. If you’re looking for a longshot, you could do a lot worse than a horse that’s 7-for-11 lifetime (with one loss coming in a turf race).

American Anthem
Coal Front
Practical Joke

AMERICAN ANTHEM: Returns to New York for his first start since an easy win in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens on Belmont Day. He’s 3-for-3 around one turn, and a repeat of the effort we saw in June would make him very tough to beat; COAL FRONT: Is 3-for-3 and most recently took down the Grade 2 Amsterdam. He showed maturity that day, slowing down to take a breath after setting a fast pace and speeding up again to repel a late challenge. These are deep waters, but he’s given me nothing to knock so far; PRACTICAL JOKE: Missed by a half-length in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational, finishing behind two horses that will contest the Travers. He won last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful at this route and has improved since then, but the rail draw isn’t ideal.

Mind Your Biscuits
Drefong
Divining Rod

MIND YOUR BISCUITS: Has developed into one of the top dirt sprinters on the planet. His win in Dubai two back was sensational, and this seven-furlong distance suits him perfectly; DREFONG: Won both the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and King’s Bishop last year, but his 2017 season has not gone smoothly. He dumped Mike Smith in the Bing Crosby, and while horse and rider were fine, the workouts since then have been on the slow side. His best race probably wins, but can he channel that form?; DIVINING ROD: Came back running last time out in his 2017 debut, crushing an overmatched field at Laurel Park. He just missed in last year’s Cigar Mile, and he seems best of the rest here.

R10

Idaho
Money Multiplier
Erupt

IDAHO: Was third behind two of Europe’s best horses last time out in a Group 1 at Ascot. Enable may be the best horse in Europe regardless of gender, while Ulysses is eyeing the Breeders’ Cup Turf. By comparison, this is a softer spot, and these connections can ship in and win these races; MONEY MULTIPLIER: Started his 2017 campaign in fine fashion last time out with a Grade 2 win at Monmouth. Improvement is logical second off such a long layoff, and this one was second to Flintshire in last year’s running of this race; ERUPT: Is a cut below Europe’s best, but he won the Grade 1 Canadian International last fall at Woodbine. His effort two back in Group 1 company was solid, and he’s a contender on his best day.

R11

West Coast
Good Samaritan
Tapwrit

WEST COAST: Has developed into Bob Baffert’s top 3-year-old colt after back-to-back stakes wins on opposite coasts. His running style suggests he’ll handle this distance just fine, and he gets my top pick in a very confusing renewal of the Travers; GOOD SAMARITAN: Beat the Derby and Preakness winners with an authoritative performance in the Jim Dandy, which doubled as his dirt debut. Figure-wise, that was a new career-best race by a considerable amount, and he could win with a repeat performance; TAPWRIT: Was last seen winning the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in June. The layoff is a concern, as is the Haskell performance of Belmont runner-up Irish War Cry, but he’s trained well of late and can’t be ignored.

R12

Lady Eli
Antonoe
Dickinson

LADY ELI: Was a surprise entrant in this race following her victory in the Grade 1 Diana. That win came after she and her stablemate (more on her shortly) broke through the starting gate before the race, and she’s strictly the one to beat; ANTONOE: Did not have a good day when last seen, breaking through the gate and sitting a strange trip. Still, she was only beaten a length by my top pick, and her win two back in the Just A Game was scary good; DICKINSON: May inherit the early lead by default. She misfired in the Diana, but her best race certainly gets her a share.

R13

Mohican
All About Voodoo
Prognostication

MOHICAN: Hasn’t run well in two local starts this summer, but I think you can toss both of those races. The race two back came off a long layoff, and his last-out effort came on dirt. Given the class drop, I think he’s live at a nice price; ALL ABOUT VOODOO: Showed speed earlier in the meet going much longer against a better group. The class drop is sensible, and keep him in mind if Focus Group (that race’s winner) comes back with a good effort in Saturday’s second race; PROGNOSTICATION: Had every chance at this level last time out, but was forced to settle for third in a so-so group. He’ll take money given the connections, and his best race puts him right there, but this may be a spot to shop around for some value.