BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $735.75

Prior to 2016, I had made it to Saratoga at least once per year since learning how to walk and talk. That streak ended last year, but thankfully, I’m starting a new streak Friday, as I’ll be in attendance for the 11-race program.

I’ll be in the backyard with my father, some of his golfing buddies, and a number of people from Scotland. It promises to be a good time. That said, if you see or smell haggis coming within 100 yards of the track, promptly send help.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: We made it two winning days in a row, as best bet IWISHIRISH jogged in the sixth while both horses we used in exactas ran 2-3. It didn’t pay much ($13 for a $2 bet), but since we had it for $10, our $30 investment returned $65. I guess we should’ve played the trifecta!

FRIDAY’S PLAY: Because Fleet Indian favorite #2 SUNSET RIDGE appears to be the wagering equivalent of a “free space” on a bingo board, I’m hammering the early multi-race exotics. I’ll play a 50-cent Pick Five starting in the opener that uses the following horses: 1,2,3,8 with 2,5 with 2 with 3,6 with 3,4,6,8. Additionally, I’ll play a 50-cent Pick Four that starts in the second race and uses the same horses that are included in the last four legs of the Pick Five.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Sunset Ridge, Race 3
Longshot: Hardly Mate, Race 6

R1

Codrington
Purely Lucky
Jody’s Song

CODRINGTON: Has run well in two turf starts, including a near-miss last time out going long. A repeat of her last-out effort would almost certainly make her the one to beat; PURELY LUCKY: Was one-paced in her debut going short and has the pedigree to embrace a distance of ground. The rider switch to Javier Castellano indicates improvement could be on the horizon; JODY’S SONG: Fetched $250k at auction last summer and is bred to like the grass. She’s by Scat Daddy and out of a Speightstown mare, so don’t be surprised if she takes to the turf.

R2

Build to Suit
Runaway Lute
Beyond the Green

BUILD TO SUIT: Has crossed the wire first in three of four lifetime starts, including a runaway win last time out at this route. To be fair, he had a perfect trip that day, but there’s some speed signed on here and he can certainly be closer to the pace than he was in that victory; RUNAWAY LUTE: Was a promising 2-year-old last year and may have found that form last time out. He was second in a swiftly-run race going six furlongs, and he’s certainly a contender on his best day; BEYOND THE GREEN: Hasn’t won in a while but has been very close in each of his last two starts. He cuts back from longer races, and the recent bullet workout is encouraging.

R3

Sunset Ridge
Bonita Bianca
Five Each Way

SUNSET RIDGE: Tries two turns for the first time, but has given no indication that this will be a problem. She’s 3-for-3 and has improved with every start, and it would take significant regression for her to be threatened here; BONITA BIANCA: Has thrived against state-breds, going 4-for-4 in such races with three wins in stakes company. She seems best of the rest; FIVE EACH WAY: Tries dirt for the first time, but at least her previous races can tell you she’ll handle this distance, and someone has to run third.

R4

Barbarossa
Battle Station
Chasindamoney

BARBAROSSA: Showed speed and faded in his debut on dirt, which came against several horses that will run in a stakes race later on this card. He’s bred up and down for the turf, and this is his first start for new trainer Todd Pletcher; BATTLE STATION: Has worked pretty well here as of late for a conditioner that’s one of the best in the business at getting 2-year-olds ready to run. He’s bred pretty well, too, as his dam is a half to a Grade 3-winning turf sprinter named Vestrey Lady; CHASINDAMONEY: Fetched $72k at auction last summer and goes out for a barn that’s had a tremendous meet. The works don’t stand out, but this trainer/jockey combination merits respect.

R5

What a Catch
Morning Breez
Aveenu Malcainu

WHAT A CATCH: Has beaten a number of others in this field in his two prior starts, one of which was a win in a similar stakes race downstate. He’s been working very well, and he’s proven he doesn’t necessarily need the lead to run well; MORNING BREEZ: Was second behind my top pick last time out, beating the rest of the field by daylight in the process. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is a plus, and he comes in off a bullet drill on August 20th; AVEENU MALCAINU: Rated and won at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing to do.

R6

Hope’s Roar
Hardly Mate
New Canaan

HOPE’S ROAR: Is 0-for-14, and I usually don’t like picking those horses on top, but her last race was visually impressive. She was rated off a very slow early pace, was rank beneath his rider, and still almost won. There seems to be a bit more speed signed on today; HARDLY MATE: Showed some early zip in her lone start to date, and will need to use it to clear this field from the outside post. However, Joel Rosario riding for a barn that doesn’t send out many horses is encouraging, and she could be ready to run off the bench; NEW CANAAN: Ran like a horse who needed his debut earlier this month. Still, he was beaten less than three lengths in that event while wide throughout, and improvement is logical at second asking, especially given the class drop.

R7

Fourstar Crook
Ack Naughty
Bar of Gold

FOURSTAR CROOK: Goes for her ninth consecutive victory here, and if she puts forth the effort we’ve come to expect from her, she should get it. She cruised to a win over graded stakes company last time out and has dispatched many of these foes in the past; ACK NAUGHTY: Could complete a Chad Brown exacta if she runs back to her most recent race. She was an impressive winner in open allowance company, and she made my top pick/her stablemate work for it two back in the Mount Vernon; BAR OF GOLD: Hasn’t won in a while, but has been running against much better horses. She was beaten less than a length in a stakes race earlier in the meet and can’t be ignored.

R8

I Still Miss You
Newport Breeze
Pauseforthecause

I STILL MISS YOU: Was undefeated before running into next-out Adirondack winner Pure Silver in the Lynbrook, and she was a city block clear of the rest of that field. If she runs back to that race, it’s likely that everyone else is running for second money; NEWPORT BREEZE: Ships in from the west coast for a barn that’s had success doing this with New York-breds this year. The jury’s out on how good the field she beat last time out is, but she ran into some good ones in her debut and has been working pretty well; PAUSEFORTHECAUSE: Led at every call in her debut earlier this meet despite a rough break. She figures to be prominent early, but given her pedigree, she may want even more ground than she gets today.

R9

Offering Plan
Get Jets
Kharafa

OFFERING PLAN: Won a similar stakes race two back at Belmont and has shown his best is good enough to get him home today. This race figures to set up for a closer, and the faster they go early, the better this one figures to run; GET JETS: Was second behind a top-class horse last time out at Belmont and has woken up since being switched to the turf late last year. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he’s never gone two turns on the lawn until now; KHARAFA: Is an easy horse to root for, having made $1.1 million the hard way. He was third in a Grade 2 last time out at Monmouth, and is another that should be running well in the lane.

R10

Twisted Tom
Minsky Moment
Broken Engagement

TWISTED TOM: Has won four of his last five, with his lone defeat in that stretch coming in the Grade 1 Belmont. He beat many of these last time out in the New York Derby and will likely be heavily favored to do so again; MINSKY MOMENT: Is one of just two in here not coming out of the aforementioned New York Derby. He couldn’t run down a perfect-trip winner at this route last time out, but he’s flashed talent and could complete another Chad Brown exacta; BROKEN ENGAGEMENT: Was second to my top pick last time out and beat the rest of the field by several lengths that day.

R11

Silky Way
Danny’s Rush
Shades of Brown

SILKY WAY: Showed speed against straight maidens last time out and drops in for a tag for the first time. He should be sharper second off the layoff, and strong turf rider Jose Lezcano retains the mount; DANNY’S RUSH: Is a major player if he draws in off the AE list. He was fourth behind an eventual stakes-winner two back, and a repeat of that race would put him right there; SHADES OF BROWN: Merits a longshot look. He woke up when switched to the turf last time out, and he figures to be prominent early.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $700.75

When you work a day in advance, as I do, you’re prone to weird things happening. Case in point, my longshot of the day in the pick box, and my key horse in this section, was 6-1 on the morning line in a large field. I thought I found something, but the horse went off at 2-1, a third of the original price.

Before anyone says anything of the sort, this is NOT an attack on morning line man Travis Stone, who has arguably the hardest job on the front side of the racetrack. It’s just part of the job I have to work around, that’s all.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I wouldn’t have bet I Miss My Father had I known he’d go off at 2-1, and he didn’t win. However, we did at least get something back from his second-place finish. Our $30 investment returned a slight profit, as the place and show money totaled $35.50.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the sixth, which houses my best bet of the day. That’s #6 IWISHIRISH, who ran well enough to win last time out at this level. I’ll use that one in $10 exactas above #7 INDIAN GEM and #10 DESERT AFFAIR, as well as $5 exactas below those two.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Iwishirish, Race 6
Longshot: Lido, Race 9

R1

Modem
Mr. Hot Stuff
Swansea Mile

MODEM: Came to North America ready to run, as evidenced by a strong second in a Grade 1 last month. He gave 14 pounds to the winner that day, and not only is that gap trimmed to 10 here, but this one should want every bit of this distance; MR. HOT STUFF: Is easy to root for given his backstory. He ran in the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year-old, won a Grade 1 here over fences in 2013, and merits a chance at another such score in his 11-year-old year; SWANSEA MILE: Pulled off a 28-1 shocker in the A.P. Smithwick last time out. That effort came from out of nowhere, and he won’t be sneaking up on many people here.

R2

La Contessa
Warrior’s Silver
Strategic Dreams

LA CONTESSA: Goes from turf to dirt at second asking and also drops down in class. She didn’t run terribly in her debut against straight maidens, and anywhere close to that effort would make her the one to beat here; WARRIOR’S SILVER: Wasn’t expected to do much in her debut, but did show a bit of late interest. She adds Lasix in her second career start for a trainer whose horses often improve with experience; STRATEGIC DREAMS: Makes her debut in this spot for a trainer that can get first-time starters cranked up. The presence of Irad Ortiz is a plus.

R3

Strike Midnight
Caribbean
Twenty Four Seven

STRIKE MIDNIGHT: Drops down in class after spending much of the past two years running against significantly better horses. This is a horse that was second in three stakes races as a 3-year-old, and he should appreciate the class relief; CARIBBEAN: Cruised home against a weaker group last month at Monmouth. This barn must be respected, and he should be able to rate off a solid pace; TWENTY FOUR SEVEN: Won two in a row late last year, including once over this turf course. He hasn’t been seen since November, but is capable of winning if he fires his best shot. DIRT SELECTIONS: CARIBBEAN, COMBAT CONTROLLER, BARATTI.

R4

Broman entry
Jewel Can Disco
Born for a Storm

BROMAN ENTRY: I prefer HEAVY MEDDLE, who helped set an insane pace in a race with a big field early in the meet yet still hung on for second money. There’s some speed signed on here, but nowhere near as much as what he faced last month, and that angle has been kind to several frontrunners so far this meet; JEWEL CAN DISCO: Freaked last time out at Belmont, crushing a group of overmatched maidens. A repeat of that effort likely wins, but given that it came off a long layoff and was such a big step up, a bounce is very possible; BORN FOR A STORM: Likely needed his last race, which was his first effort since October. He’s won over this surface before, and the Brown/Castellano tandem can’t be ignored.

R5

Just Got Out (MTO)
Industrial Policy
Miss Aja Brown

INDUSTRIAL POLICY: Drops way down in class off of a race earlier this meet that wasn’t bad. She was fourth against $50k claimers, and a repeat of that effort against this $25k bunch likely puts her in the winner’s circle; MISS AJA BROWN: Is another dropping in class, and she exits the same race as my top pick. She may be better around one turn, but the pilot who rode her to a victory two back returning is a positive; MERILORE: Just missed at this level and route last month. That effort would be competitive here, but the post position is a lot to overcome, and there may not be much value given her most recent effort. DIRT SELECTIONS: JUST GOT OUT, MERILORE, INDYGITA.

R6

Iwishirish
Indian Gem
Desert Affair

IWISHIRISH: Was a fast-closing second at this level last time out. She’s stepped forward in two starts as a 3-year-old, and this does not seem to be an imposing field; INDIAN GEM: Was bet in her first start off a long layoff and didn’t run badly. She was beaten less than two lengths in a turf sprint, and she returns to the main track for her second start off the bench; DESERT AFFAIR: Was third in the race my top pick exits. She’s 0-for-11 with many minor awards, and her usual race likely gets her a piece of this.

R7

Pinchbeck
Table for Six
Young Anna Lee (MTO)

PINCHBECK: Ran a solid third in her first start against winners last time out at Belmont. That was a swiftly-run race, and this improving filly should love the added distance given her stamina-filled pedigree; TABLE FOR SIX: Has never finished off the board in eight starts for Ralph Nicks, but that stretch does not include a single win. She can’t be ignored in the exotics, and maybe the extra ground will help her, but I have a hard time picking horses like this on top; BAREEQA: Was well back in a race with zero early speed last time out, so I have no problem drawing a line through that race. Her three races before that were all very good, and she’d benefit from a quick early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: YOUNG ANNA LEE, BAREEQA, MO PROMISE.

R8

Celtic Chaos
Weekend Hideaway
Jacobson entry

CELTIC CHAOS: Was very good to this handicapper early in the meet when winning the John Morrissey. He got the benefit of a suicidal speed duel that day, and while there isn’t quite as much zip signed on, he should still benefit from the likely race shape; WEEKEND HIDEAWAY: Was third behind a very good sprinter last time out in the Tale of the Cat. He loves Saratoga and could sit a dream trip just off the speed; JACOBSON ENTRY: Given the likely early pace, I prefer OSTROLENKA, who was second in the Morrissey and should be moving well late. BRIMSTONE, though, can win on his best day and was a victim of the aforementioned early battle in that race.

R9

Rubilinda
Lido
Danceland

RUBILINDA: Will likely be favored if she draws in off the AE list. There’s a lot of speed signed on, and while she was beaten last time out by a rival who shows up here, said rival got an easy lead she shouldn’t get in this spot; LIDO: Has gotten zero pace to run at in each of her last three starts, and that should change today. She overcame such a scenario to win last time out at Belmont, and given the likely race shape here, I think she can shuffle to victory here (sorry, had to); DANCELAND: Is at her best going two turns. She rallied from last to first to win such a race early on in the meet, and this barn tends to keep good horses on the right track.

R10

Honor Up (MTO)
Phone Funky Munky
News Anchor

PHONE FUNKY MUNKY: Is the only horse in this field with a credible dirt route on his resume. He was third at first asking earlier this month for a barn that rarely has first-time starters fully cranked; NEWS ANCHOR: Is bred to love the turf and has some strong workouts on his tab ahead of his debut. If there’s any hesitation, it’s because this barn’s horses sometimes need a race or two to get going; FUN PROSPECT: Stretches out and adds blinkers for a barn that has strong numbers with both moves. The most recent race hasn’t come back well, but it’s not like this is the toughest spot in the world. DIRT SELECTIONS: HONOR UP, NEW YORK HERO, PHONE FUNKY MUNKY.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $695.25

Every once in a while, I see something that restores my faith in humanity. Earlier this week, I was at my pizza place of choice in Los Angeles, and two men were leaving when they noticed their car had a flat tire. They went into the restaurant, where an employee didn’t just call a tow truck or roadside assistance. She went into the back room, got a jack, and offered to change the tire for them. Let me repeat: SHE OFFERED TO CHANGE THE TIRE.

That’s one of those things you don’t fully appreciate as it’s happening, and it took a few hours for the, “wait, very few in that position would ever do this,” realization to set in. Having said that, in an age where it seems like everyone hates everyone else for reasons that are mind-bendingly stupid, this moved me, and maybe it moved some of you, too.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: It’s never fun to go 3-for-4 in a Pick Four, but to do so with both singles getting home was particularly brutal. We dropped $20.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: If you’re able to cue up a replay of the July 31st finale at Saratoga, do it and watch the trip I MISS MY FATHER (#9 that day, #2 Wednesday) had in his debut. He was soundly bumped at the start, was rushed up between horses, and naturally had nothing left in the stretch. I hope he’s a price in today’s 10th race, and I’ll put $10 across the board on him.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Destin, Race 2
Longshot: I Miss My Father, Race 9

R1

Moscato
Surprising Soul
My Afleet

MOSCATO: Has not run a bad race over hurdles this year and was a solid second in a stakes race earlier in the meet. A repeat of that effort would make him tough to beat; SURPRISING SOUL: Set the early pace in said stakes race before fading midway through the event. He looks like the main speed in here and could lead them a long way; MY AFLEET: Was a very successful horse on the flat, winning the 2014 Dueling Grounds Derby and running second in last year’s John’s Call. He’s made the transition to steeplechase racing with aplomb, and was second in stakes company last time out.

R2

Destin
Seeking the Soul
Donegal Moon

DESTIN: Almost certainly needed his 2017 debut off such a long layoff. His 3-year-old campaign featured a close second in the Belmont and a third in the Jim Dandy, and anything close to those efforts would make him very formidable; SEEKING THE SOUL: Rallied to win at this route earlier in the meet. That day’s third-place finisher has since come back to win, but will he get a pace to run at in this short field?; DONEGAL MOON: Ships north after running a distant second to world-class miler Sharp Azteca. His back class is imposing, but he’s run his best races at the Jersey Shore, and this surface is much different.

R3

Machismo
Elusive Mischief
Majestic Dunhill

MACHISMO: Comes in off a debut effort that was too bad to be true. He goes to the lawn, which he’s bred to love, and Velazquez sticking around is a big, big plus; ELUSIVE MISCHIEF: Is one of two first-time starters from this barn that appears well-meant in this spot. This one, though, is bred to be a bit more precocious than stablemate MR. CHEERFUL, and he’s worked to that pedigree; MAJESTIC DUNHILL: Was fourth in a live race earlier in the meet. That winner came back to run well in an off-the-turf stakes race, and this one’s experience could come in handy.

R4

Enduring Erin
Arewehavingfunyet
Frostie Anne

ENDURING ERIN: Hasn’t won in a while, but takes a huge class drop for a barn that’s woken up in a big way of late. She comes back to the dirt, and this spot represents a ton of class relief; AREWEHAVINGFUNYET: Drops back into the claiming ranks after finding starter allowance company too tough. Her start at a similar level two back was a win, and she’s 2-for-2 at this seven-furlong distance; FROSTIE ANNE: May have bounced off a strong win two back in a state-bred allowance race, where she went wire-to-wire. If she gets the early lead in this short field, she may be tough to run down.

R5

Spectrolite
Consumerconfidence
Daddy’s Home

SPECTROLITE: Has never run a bad race and seems to draw an ideal setup here. He’s the only horse in this entire field that has shown substantial early speed on turf, and he may be tough to keep up with early; CONSUMERCONFIDENCE: Takes a big jump up in class after dusting maiden claimers earlier in the meet, but that was a sharp effort, and both of his one-turn races this season have been solid; DADDY’S HOME: Was claimed by the red-hot Linda Rice barn after his last start, which came going longer. She’s had a ton of success wheeling horses back at this meet, and first-call rider Jose Ortiz taking the mount serves as an indication he could be live.

R6

Zap Zap Zap (MTO)
Le Pin
Business Expense

LE PIN: Came off the bench running last time out at Belmont, when he was a good second behind a next-out winner. He chased a stakes-winning sprinter in his debut, and the two-turn route shouldn’t be a problem; BUSINESS EXPENSE: Has worked well and merits respect based on handicapping the connections in here. Stablemate OISEAU DE GUERRE may be favored, but he’s owned by similar connections to my top pick, and Chad Brown also saddling this one in here could mean that favorite is beatable; OISEAU DE GUERRE: Ran second earlier in the meet in his first start since November. That was a good effort, but it was also a lifetime-best race for him, meaning a bounce could be in the cards. That, plus the odd situation with the connections, gives me some pause.

R7

Tapella
Parade
Heavenly Grace

TAPELLA: Was second in the slop in her debut and has worked very well since that effort. She’s bred up and down to go long, and she should take a big step forward today; PARADE: Rallied for third going seven furlongs earlier this month despite being extremely green. This barn excels with horses stretching out, and this is another filly that’s crying out for distance; HEAVENLY GRACE: Hasn’t shown much in two one-turn starts, but stretches out and couldn’t possibly be bred better for such a route. This is a daughter of future Hall of Famer Havre de Grace, and she may be a price given her mediocre form so far.

R8

Red Rifle
Infinite Wisdom
Renown

RED RIFLE: Hasn’t won in a while, but was a good second behind the Woodward-bound Rally Cry in the Alydar. His back class is substantial, and his usual race should give him a big shot; INFINITE WISDOM: Was headed by a next-out winner earlier on in the meet, and the horse that edged him two back is no slouch, either. He’s a contender, but the barn couldn’t be running any colder; RENOWN: Won four of five not too long ago, and that stretch included a Grade 3 at Keeneland going a similar marathon distance. He likely wants to be closer early on than he was last time out, and I think he’s worth a look.

R9

Nevisian Sky
Voodoo Song
Cliffs of Dover

NEVISIAN SKY: Did everything but win last time out, when he was nosed as the favorite at this level and route. A similar effort would make him the one to beat; VOODOO SONG: Returns after winning twice in less than a week earlier in the meet. He steps up out of state-bred competition, and this is an OK field, but you can’t deny the success he’s had on this turf course; CLIFFS OF DOVER: Most definitely needed his 2017 debut, so you can draw a line through it. His 2016 form was solid, and that campaign included a win over this turf course with this rider aboard.

R10

I Miss My Father
Souper Colors
Mast Step

I MISS MY FATHER: Is a huge trip play for me based on his debut. He was rushed up between horses after being slammed into at the start, and it’s likely that a considerable step forward is in the cards. The rider switch to Jose Ortiz is a massive one; SOUPER COLORS: Ran third in that race and was moving pretty well late. This is a big field, which could mean a fast early pace, and such a setup would benefit this gelding; MAST STEP: Woke up a bit when dropped to this level last time out downstate. He was a late-running third that day despite a slow start, and is another who would benefit from a pace meltdown.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $715.25

This week’s installment of “The Dark Day Files” is a wee bit different than usual. I posted a hint on my Twitter page (@AndrewChampagne) a few days ago, but by and large, everyone’s pretty much in the dark about what I’m doing. It’ll be online on AndrewChampagne.com and my social media pages Monday evening, and if you think I’m being cryptic about what I’ve got in store…well, you’re pretty much right.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Our late Pick Four went up in smoke in the eighth, when Magician’s Vanity looked like she couldn’t lose at the top of the stretch and then, somehow, did. After scratches, we dropped $36.

MONDAY’S PLAY: I’ll dive back into the late Pick Four, and because my ticket is on the skinnier side, I’ll play it for $1 instead of the usual 50-cent denomination. I’m singling #3 RUN AND GO in the sixth, using #2 VINTAGE MATTERS and #7 CONVERGE in the seventh, singling #5 DIVERSIFY in the eighth, and punching the “ALL” button in the ninth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Run and Go, Race 6
Longshot: This Bird Can Sing, Race 4

R1

The Berber
Michael Wonderful
Final Blessing

THE BERBER: Ran well when second in his debut earlier in the meet, and he did so for a barn whose horses often need a race to get going. Improvement is logical at second asking; MICHAEL WONDERFUL: Has a few strong works on his tab ahead of the debut. His dam is a half to several real runners, and this one could be ready to run; FINAL BLESSING: Is another first-time starter that could be prepared to win right away. The recent workouts are OK, and this doesn’t appear to be the strongest race for the level.

R2

She’sakittykat (MTO)
She Remembered
Grand Banks

SHE REMEMBERED: Has just missed in back-to-back starts at this level, and in doing so has beaten a number of rivals that show up in this spot. It may be graduation day following a few hard-luck losses; GRAND BANKS: Has finished behind my top pick in back-to-back races. This barn has quietly had a solid meet, and the presence of strong turf rider Joe Bravo is a plus; ITSTHEMONEY: Was protected last time out in her first start since December and ran fairly well. She could improve off of that, and doing so could get her a piece at a price. DIRT SELECTIONS: SHE’SAKITTYKAT, FROST DELAY, IRISH SWEETHEART.

R3

Madam Aamoura
Summer of Joy
Charis

MADAM AAMOURA: Has not won in a while, but exits a pretty tough race for the level. She bested the rest of the field by more than four lengths, and this one should be prominent early; SUMMER OF JOY: Drops down in class after an unsuccessful try against unrestricted, $25k company. Her race two back was pretty solid, and a repeat of that would make her a contender; CHARIS: Ships in from the Midwest for her local debut. On figures, she fits, but how she’ll take to the surface is an unknown.

R4

This Bird Can Sing
Song for the Soul
Tres Charmant

THIS BIRD CAN SING: Was claimed last time out by Brad Cox, who tries her on turf for the first time. Few are better than Cox at moving horses up, and I like when a trainer claims a horse and tries something completely different; SONG FOR THE SOUL: Comes back to the turf for Wesley Ward second off the layoff. She showed speed at this route last summer, and that day’s winner turned out to be a solid horse; TRES CHARMANT: Showed speed against maiden special weight foes on Independence Day and drops back in for a tag. Linda Rice’s barn is firing on all cylinders, but this one may not be alone on the lead early on. DIRT SELECTIONS: SAME.

R5

Cinderela El Crome (MTO)
Hembree
He’s Cheeky

HEMBREE: Was a strong second last time out against allowance company and drops in for a tag for the first time. He was bet in a Grade 3 two back, and note the presence of up-and-coming apprentice Katie Clawson; HE’S CHEEKY: Has a “good race, bad race” pattern going, and this would be the spot for a good one. His race two back against similar company was very strong, and he exits a swiftly-run starter allowance; BEN OF THE BRIDGE: Merits a look underneath at a big price. Neither of his last two races really set up for a closer, and if they go quickly early on, he figures to come running late. DIRT SELECTIONS: CINDERELA EL CROME, HEMBREE, BEN OF THE BRIDGE.

R6

Run and Go
Awestruck
Knarsdale

RUN AND GO: Looked like a big-time prospect when she won her debut by four widening lengths. She went to the sidelines shortly after, but she’s been training well for powerhouse connections ahead of her return; AWESTRUCK: Was fourth in a Grade 3 last time out and cuts back to a sprint distance. This route should be more to her liking, and she can’t be ignored; KNARSDALE: May have needed her last effort, which came off a three-month layoff. She gets Lasix for the first time, and note that she beat eventual Queen’s Plate winner Holy Helena back in April.

R7

Converge
Vintage Matters
Hidden Vow

CONVERSE: Comes back to the state-bred ranks after a try in open company. He ran into Hello Don Julio that day, and that one was an impressive winner against better horses Saturday; VINTAGE MATTERS: Was beaten less than a length last time out in a weirdly-run marathon race. There appears to be some speed signed on, and this one should be running well late; HIDDEN VOW: Is a threat if he draws in off the AE list. He generally runs the same race every time out, and the Jason Servis/Irad Ortiz duo has put up eye-popping numbers this meet.

R8

Diversify
Papa Shot
Good Luck Gus

DIVERSIFY: Is 4-for-5 against New York-breds, and that one loss came on a sloppy track. There doesn’t appear to be much other early speed in this race, and this one will be very tough to run down if he’s left alone; PAPA SHOT: Stretches back out in distance following a third-place finish against similar-level company earlier in the meet. He doesn’t have a bad race on the form, and his best effort would give him a big shot; GOOD LUCK GUS: Hasn’t won in a while, but came back running off a long layoff earlier in the meet. If my top two picks lock up early, this closer could be the chief beneficiary.

R9

Conquest Sandman
Tricked Up
Acoustic

CONQUEST SANDMAN: Wired the field two back against allowance company before running into much better in the optional ranks last time out. He seems like the main speed, and the rider switch to John Velazquez is significant; TRICKED UP: Beat allowance foes last time out at Monmouth and would benefit from a fast early pace. The post position isn’t ideal, but he may be talented enough to overcome it; ACOUSTIC: Has taken a significant step forward of late. He’s won two of three turf starts this year, and he’d also be formidable if this race was moved to the dirt. DIRT SELECTIONS: ACOUSTIC, BANKERS HOLIDAY, DEVINE DENTAL.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $751.25

For those who don’t know, I live in California, and to make life easier on the fine folks at The Saratogian, I try to work as far in advance as possible. Unfortunately, one can get burned doing that, as I did when news came out that Going for Broke, who would have been my best bet of the day, would scratch from the Summer Colony to await the Personal Ensign.

I can’t reflect that in the picks I already sent in, but I can address it here. That is convenient for me, because that huge departure from the feature makes the late Pick Four very, very interesting.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: We had nothing around her in exactas or the late double, but Elate winning the Alabama at least meant a profit for the day (even if it was a marginal one). In total, our $40 investment returned $41.50.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: As I hinted, I’ll play the 50-cent late Pick Four (which begins in the seventh race), and my ticket does not include a single…well, single. To save space, I’ll only list numbers, not names: 1,10 with 8,9 with ALL with 4,6,7,14. Note that I’m not expecting #14 CONSUMERCONFIDENCE to run in the last given that he’s fourth on the AE list, but if he somehow draws in, I have to use him.

TOTAL WAGERED: $48

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Going for Broke, Race 9
Longshot: Closing Statement, Race 6

R1

Lightning Buzz
Caniform
Silver Assault

LIGHTNING BUZZ: Has run second in back-to-back tries at this level, including one such effort earlier this meet. He took a step forward that day and would be tough to beat with continued progression; CANIFORM: Hasn’t run a bad race on dirt and makes his first start for Steve Asmussen, who’s strong with new acquisitions. There appears to be plenty of early speed signed on, which should help his late kick; SILVER ASSAULT: Drops way down the class ladder, which is a shock given his 2-year-old campaign. A return to that form would make him an easy winner, but this drop by a very patient trainer is a big red flag.

R2

Kranji (MTO)
Air Vice Marshal
Kantune

AIR VICE MARSHAL: Gets two turns for the first time in his North American career and may want such a route. He was a solid second last time out at Belmont and should be flying late; KANTUNE: Was taken out of his element earlier this meet and should be much closer to the pace today. Joel Rosario rode this one to a win two back, and he returns in this spot; MAMBO AT THE GYM: Was never involved last time out, but that was a bizarre race with a runaway early leader. His effort two back at Belmont was solid. DIRT SELECTIONS: KRANJI, BATTLE MIDWAY, HOLLOW POINT.

R3

Tapella (MTO)
Complicit
Magical Sky

COMPLICIT: Stepped up to run a good second last time out in a race she may have needed. Of the few races a number of these come out of, that one seems to be the most impressive; MAGICAL SKY: Hasn’t done much wrong in two starts and ran well late to finish third earlier in the meet. The faster they go early on, the better this one will likely finish; SILVER SHAKER: Ran third in the race my top pick exits and stepped forward off a disappointing debut in the process. Javier Castellano signs on in this spot. DIRT SELECTIONS: TAPELLA, TIZ SUPER, BOGULATOR.

R4

Fortuitous Path
Noneedtoflatterme
Pirellone

FORTUITOUS PATH: Has spent most of his career running against substantially better horses and drops way down the class ladder for aggressive connections. This doesn’t appear to be a very imposing spot for the level, and I think he wakes up; NONEEDTOFLATTERME: Is 2-for-2 going short on dirt, albeit against weaker foes. He ran a nice race here earlier in the meet, and if that day’s runner-up runs well in today’s opener, it bodes well; PIRELLONE: Is wheeled back pretty quickly after a third-place finish at this level. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s already run well twice at this meet.

R5

Indy Union (MTO)
Fools Gold
Wealth Effect

FOOLS GOLD: Fetched $425k at auction earlier this year and is bred to go long. None of the ones that have run before impress me much, so I’ll focus on first-time starters; WEALTH EFFECT: Hails from the same barn as my top pick and is also well-bred. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but these connections can never be ignored with a blue-blooded, first-time starter; PASS IT ON: Has worked pretty well of late here and is another bred to do her best running on the lawn. This barn’s horses sometimes need a race, but she can’t be ignored in the exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: INDY UNION, WEALTH EFFECT, MAD DOG MATTERS.

R6

Purrfect Miss
Closing Statement
Coach Rocks

PURRFECT MISS: Was a close second at big odds in her debut, and that race seems far superior to anything any of the other ones with experience in here have run. Improvement is logical at second asking, and she’s worked well since her unveiling; CLOSING STATEMENT: Is bred to be a real runner. Her dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner, and this one’s work tab is consistent; COACH ROCKS: Fetched $95k at auction earlier this year and has worked pretty well since shipping here last month. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because she may want to go much longer.

R7

Heavy Meddle (MTO)
New York’s Finest
Wicked Macho

NEW YORK’S FINEST: Is 2-for-2 at this route, and both wins came by daylight. He does step up in class here, but he’s done nothing wrong going short at the Spa and could be good enough to beat these; WICKED MACHO: Did everything but win in his turf debut last time out. He showed a new dimension that day, and he’ll be a formidable foe; GEHRIG: Has not won since late-2015, but his last two races were pretty sharp. I hesitate to back horses like this on top, but he can’t be ignored if you’re playing vertical exotics. DIRT SELECTIONS: HEAVY MEDDLE, JEWEL CAN DISCO, MACHO MIAH.

R8

Lillie’s Answer
Magician’s Vanity
Cinder

LILLIE’S ANSWER: Drops down in class and has yet to run a bad race since being claimed by Mike Maker late last year. She beat similar company earlier this year at Gulfstream, and her usual race would make her tough; MAGICIAN’S VANITY: Was a good second at this level earlier in the meet behind a horse that got loose on the lead. She beat the rest of that field by daylight and could find this to be a softer spot; CINDER: Merits a look at a price if she draws in off the AE list. She had a lousy trip last time out, and she has prior races that show she can contend with this group. DIRT SELECTIONS: ROMANTIC MUSIC, BLUEGRASS HIP HOP, CINCY BELLE.

R9

Going for Broke
Verve’s Tale
Blue Prize

GOING FOR BROKE: Ran a huge race in her seasonal debut, which came going shorter than she wants to run. She was beaten just a neck by the ultra-classy Carina Mia that day, and she should step forward second off the bench and going her preferred distance; VERVE’S TALE: Doesn’t win much, but has been running against top-class competition this year. She could appreciate the shallower waters, although this is far from an easy spot; BLUE PRIZE: Adds blinkers following a pair of strange trips in both North American starts to date. She’s never been out of the exacta in six career starts and won a Group 1 event in her native Argentina.

R10

Consumerconfidence
Stormin Maclean
Outrageous Bet

CONSUMERCONFIDENCE: Needs a lot of luck to draw in from deep on the AE list, but will be tough to beat if he does. He aired at this route earlier in the meet, and it’s not like there’s much to be afraid of here in his first start against winners; STORMIN MACLEAN: Exits a key race where the top three finishers all came back to win at next asking. He was claimed by Linda Rice that day, and few are better than her at getting new acquisitions cranked at next asking; OUTRAGEOUS BET: Drops back into claiming company after finding the allowance ranks a bit too tough. His effort two back was very strong, and a repeat of that race would make him a contender here.