Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/19/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $749.75

I’m not going to feed you marketing spin about how great this year’s Alabama is. From a quality standpoint, it’s a step down from previous years (especially the 2016 renewal, where Songbird won in a gallop). However, it is a spectacular betting race, and you’re likely to get a price on whatever horse you think will break through in the absence of divisional heavyweights like Abel Tasman. There are holes in the favorites and cases to make for bigger prices, and as a handicapper, that’s all you can ask for.

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: We had the right idea with Missimpazi, who ran a very strong race in her debut. Unfortunately for us, the 4-1 shot got reeled in late, and our $20 win bet fizzled. We did get $10 back from our cancelled double play after the sixth was rained off the turf.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: As if you couldn’t tell by my intro, my action will focus on the feature, which goes as the ninth race. If the morning line odds hold up on #7 ELATE, I’ll take them and run. She seems to be getting better with experience and added distance, and she gave Abel Tasman all she could handle in the Coaching Club American Oaks. I’ll start off with a $5 win/place bet, and I’ll also use her in $3 exactas above and below #2 HOLY HELENA, #4 LOCKDOWN, #5 UNCHAINED MELODY, and #6 SALTY. Finally, I’ll single her in $3 doubles that use #1 ASSERTIVE/#1A WAKE ISLAND and #5 TIME TO FLIRT in the finale.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: La Coronel, Race 8
Longshot: Race Me Home, Race 6

R1

Turbo Street
Southside Warrior
Docs Legacy

TURBO STREET: Drops way down in class after four tries against much better horses. This barn has gotten off to a cold start to the meet, but this class relief is simply too much to ignore; SOUTHSIDE WARRIOR: Was third in a swiftly-run race earlier in the meet. Javier Castellano rides back, and given his history with other runners in this race, it’s safe to assume he had options; DOCS LEGACY: Prevailed at a big price earlier in the meet. He may want a bit longer than he gets here, but a repeat effort puts him right there.

R2

Congruity
Another
Hyndford

CONGRUITY: Fetched $210k at auction and has been working very well ahead of his debut. These connections merit respect, and the turf breeding is there; ANOTHER: Is one to include if he draws in off the AE list. He was second in his debut earlier in the meet for a barn whose first-time starters don’t often win; HYNDFORD: Was a $200k auction purchase and has a pedigree that indicates he should take to turf. The works leave a bit to be desired, but these connections can’t be ignored.

R3

Hexameter
Wildcat Belle
Paluxy Princess

HEXAMETER: Comes back to dirt after being beaten less than two lengths on turf earlier in the meet. Her dirt races earlier this year were all solid, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip; WILDCAT BELLE: Figures to be prominent early in her first start for this barn. She may not get an uncontested lead, but she figures to be the one they’ve got to run down late; PALUXY PRINCESS: Has taken a big step forward in two starts for Carlos Martin. She was second here earlier in the meet and merits a look underneath at a nice price.

R4

Flashy Jewel (MTO)
Manitoulin
Hello Don Julio

MANITOULIN: Was beaten less than two lengths in a Grade 3 last time out and won two in a row before that. He seems to be peaking this season, and it helps that there appears to be some early speed signed on; HELLO DON JULIO: Tried Grade 2 company earlier in the meet and drops back down into the optional claiming ranks here. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he’s 0-for-2 at Saratoga and that he may not get an easy lead; AQUAPHOBIA: Really hasn’t run a bad race this year. He cuts back in distance after finishing third in a minor stakes race, and he should be running well late. DIRT SELECTIONS: FLASHY JEWEL, DOCTOR MOUNTY, MARENGO ROAD.

R5

Variant Perception
Allured
Super Sermon

VARIANT PERCEPTION: Appears extremely well-meant in his debut. He’s outworked his uncoupled stablemate on multiple occasions, and these connections are always tough; ALLURED: Is said stablemate, one who fetched $600k at auction earlier this year. Chad Brown could easily run 1-2 here; SUPER SERMON: Is a WinStar homebred that’s worked solidly for Todd Pletcher. The pedigree, though, suggests that this one may want longer than the six furlongs he gets here.

R6

Caviar Czar
Meantime
Race Me Home

CAVIAR CZAR: Has improved with every start to date, and his lone win came going a two-turn route of ground. Given the rail draw and his proven early zip, he should be prominent early; MEANTIME: Exits the Grade 1 Belmont, where he was rank early and had nothing left in the later stages of the marathon race. Before that, he was second in the Grade 3 Peter Pan, and a repeat of that effort would make him a major player; RACE ME HOME: Showed promise last yea when second in the Easy Goer. The last two races on turf are throw-outs, and a return to his 2016 form would make his 15-1 morning line a considerable overlay.

R7

Knarsdale (MTO)
Ellery Lane
Mom’s On Strike

ELLERY LANE: Makes her North American debut for Chad Brown off a long layoff. She showed promise in a limited 2-year-old campaign, which featured a fourth-place finish in Group 3 company, and she gets Lasix for the first time; MOM’S ON STRIKE: Came off the bench running last time out when second behind a much-the-best winner. Improvement is logical second off the layoff; CASSE ENTRY: I prefer GIADA VEGAS, who has improved as a 4-year-old and would benefit from a fast early pace. DIRT SELECTIONS: KNARSDALE, MOM’S ON STRIKE, JUST GOT OUT.

R8

La Coronel
Proctor’s Ledge
Uni

LA CORONEL: Returns to the U.S. after competing in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot against some of the best fillies in Europe. The first and second-place finishers both won at next asking, and this one’s races before that journey were very sharp; PROCTOR’S LEDGE: Was impressive in winning the Grade 3 Lake George earlier in the meet. She appears to be improving with experience, and Castellano returning to ride her is a plus; UNI: Rallied well to finish third in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks behind two stablemates. She did get a pace to run at that day, though, and this pace scenario may not be nearly as favorable.

R9

Elate
Unchained Melody
Salty

ELATE: Was beaten just a head by the divisional leader in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks and has the look of a filly that will keep improving. This distance should not be a problem, and she could sit a great trip; UNCHAINED MELODY: Broke through with a wire-to-wire win in the Grade 2 Mother Goose. She earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure that day, but she may not have beaten much in that spot, and she’s never been two turns, let alone this 10-furlong distance; SALTY: Sat an unlucky trip in the Coaching Club, but gave Abel Tasman all she could handle two back in the Acorn. Her best effort would put her right there.

R10

Tapella (MTO)
Bass entry
Time to Flirt

BASS ENTRY: I prefer ASSERTIVE, who took to turf last time out at Belmont. She was a close-up third that day, and she gets a big rider switch in the Saturday finale; TIME TO FLIRT: Has lost back-to-back photos downstate and sports a recent bullet workout since shipping here. She may be better around one turn, but it’s not inconceivable to think she could break through here; MISERICORDIA: Hasn’t run badly in two starts to date and switches to Jose Lezcano, a strong turf rider. She merits an underneath look, especially at her morning line price. DIRT SELECTIONS: TAPELLA, BASS ENTRY, AOIFE.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/18/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $769.75

The Woodward took a serious hit Thursday, when news broke that multiple Grade 1 winner Shaman Ghost would miss the race due to throat surgery. He upset Frosted to win last year’s renewal, and he would have been one of only a few horses in training that figured to make Gun Runner work in his quest for back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Saratoga.

Fun fact: Only one horse has won back-to-back renewals of the Woodward since 1997. That horse was Lido Palace, who did so in 2001 and 2002. After that one, the list of horses to win consecutive Woodwards reads as follows: Cigar, Slew o’ Gold, Forego (four times), Kelso (three times), and Sword Dancer. In an age where top-tier handicap horses are difficult to come by beyond Arrogate and Gun Runner, it’s a shame Shaman Ghost isn’t getting a crack at another Woodward victory.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Clipthecouponannie got a strange trip and was well behind runaway winner Picco Uno. We dropped $20.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race, which features my best bet of the day. That’s #5 MISSIMPAZI, who debuts for Chris Englehart following a series of strong workouts. I’ll put $20 on her to win and key her in $5 doubles that end with #4 LUNAIRE and #6 LUCULLAN in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Missimpazi, Race 5
Longshot: Alex the Terror, Race 8

R1

Jcs American Dream (MTO)
Pinchbeck
Table for Six

PINCHBECK: Has improved in every start to date and has a pedigree that suggests the added distance she gets today won’t be a problem. She’s got more tactical speed than she showed last time out; TABLE FOR SIX: Has not won in nearly two years, but has also never finished worse than third in eight starts for trainer Ralph Nicks. I can’t endorse her on top, but she can’t be ignored if you’re playing vertical exotics; BAREEQA: Flopped as the favorite last time out, but she’s tough when right and merits a look if she draws in off the AE list. DIRT SELECTIONS: JCS AMERICAN DREAM, KATE IS A TEN, MO PROMISE.

R2

Special Jo
Tug of War
Waco

SPECIAL JO: Seems like the main speed in here and goes out for a barn that’s been knocking at the door all meet long. The inside draw seems favorable given his running style; TUG OF WAR: Has not run a bad race since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want a bit longer than the six furlongs he gets here; WACO: Is dropped substantially in class for his first start in more than a year. He’s run some exceptional races over this surface, but the drop and the long layoff are both big red flags.

R3

Taoiseach (MTO)
Boss Man
Spin Cycle

BOSS MAN: Drops in for a tag after running an OK third in his 2017 debut. Servis and Ortiz have done tremendous work together, and this gelding seems like the horse to beat; SPIN CYCLE: Drops down in class after setting the pace in his last start against optional claimers. There isn’t much early speed in here, and improvement could happen second off the brief layoff at a bit of a price; SPORTSCASTER: Has run well here in the past and has been extremely competitive at this level. He beat starter allowance foes two back at Churchill, and his best puts him right there. DIRT SELECTIONS: TAOISEACH, CONQUEST TWISTER, JACOBSON ENTRY.

R4

El Dulce
Mentality
Dial One

EL DULCE: Showed plenty of guts in his debut, when he went wire-to-wire at this route and repelled a strong challenge. These connections have won plenty of 2-year-old races here, and they merit respect once again; MENTALITY: Wired the field in her debut and faces the boys here. She’s certainly talented, but the post position is a concern; DIAL ONE: Broke his maiden by daylight on turf and was third in a stakes race on dirt last time out. There’s lots of speed signed on, so he could sit a nice trip.

R5

Missimpazi
Missbigtimes
Tayler’s the Boss

MISSIMPAZI: Has worked very well since shipping here for a barn that has success with 2-year-old runners. The Finger Lakes-based rider coming in for one mount could be a hint that she’s ready to run; MISSBIGTIMES: Was a well-beaten third behind possible division leader Pure Silver in her debut. She didn’t break well that day, and she could certainly improve with experience; TAYLER’S THE BOSS: Fetched $110k at auction last summer and has worked fairly well. This barn has done well of late and can win with debuting runners.

R6

Caviar Czar (MTO)
Lunaire
Lucullan

LUNAIRE: Has been running against some of the best 3-year-old turf horses around, and should appreciate the class relief he gets here. He was beaten just a length by eventual Grade 2 winner Bricks and Mortar two back; LUCULLAN: Rallied well to be third in a swiftly-run race earlier in the meet. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz is noteworthy, and he’d benefit from a faster-than-expected early pace; CONVIVIAL: Rallied from last to first in his debut, which came last month at Monmouth. He didn’t break well that day, so he could be more forwardly-placed out of the gate here. DIRT SELECTIONS: CAVIAR CZAR, LUNAIRE, PAINTER’S RAGS.

R7

Tommy T
Godolphin entry
Commandeering

TOMMY T: Was a sharp second in his debut behind a next-out winner, and he beat several of today’s foes in that race. This barn isn’t known for having horses fully cranked right away, so this colt could be a good one; GODOLPHIN ENTRY: I prefer FULLY VESTED, who was third earlier this meet in his first start since October. He may have needed the race and should step forward here; COMMANDEERING: Returns off a layoff and comes back to dirt. He ran into some nice horses as a 2-year-old, and if he channels that form, he’s a contender.

R8

Alex the Terror
Luna de Loco
Bluegrass Singer

ALEX THE TERROR: Is 2-for-3 with a second at this seven-furlong distance and won at this route earlier in the meet. He does take a slight step up in class, but that day’s rider returns in this spot, and that’s encouraging; LUNA DE LOCO: Was a good second against optional claimers downstate, and the horse he nosed for the place spot came back to win at next asking. This distance should suit him; BLUEGRASS SINGER: Tackled Grade 2 company last time out and ran over a wet surface he did not care for. He topped a very classy field three back going a one-turn mile, and his best race could win this.

R9

Play Unified (MTO)
Eila
Miss Katie Mae

EILA: Has top-end early speed and is a stakes-quality turf sprinter when she’s right. She was fifth in a stakes race last time out and should be the controlling pace presence in this spot; MISS KATIE MAE: Has not won in more than a year, but was a strong second at this level and route last month. She’d be the chief beneficiary if another horse went with my top pick early on; TRUE CHARM: Is at her best at this route. She won an allowance race earlier in the meet and merits a look at a big price given her local record. DIRT SELECTIONS: PLAY UNIFIED, SILVERTONI, APPEALING MAGGIE.

R10

Sanavi
Mister Hayes
Benny Big Boy

SANAVI: Drops way down in class for powerhouse connections and returns to dirt. He won on the main track in his debut and attracts Jose Ortiz in what appears to be a wide-open finale; MISTER HAYES: Graduated last time out at Belmont and was claimed out of that race by Michelle Nevin. She does solid work with new acquisitions; BENNY BIG BOY: Was midpack in a pretty tough race for this level last time out. He’s shown more tactical speed than that in the past and could improve off of that effort.

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/17/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $789.75

I wish I could use this space to talk about something witty, or amusing, or easy to digest. Having said that, the events of the past few days have made that impossible for me to do. I posted a piece to AndrewChampagne.com Wednesday morning about the events in Charlottesville, Va., and there are some things that are just plain more important than who I like in the fourth race.

If you’re interested, it’s here. If you aren’t, I get that, too. Having said that, my great-uncle, who still resides in upstate New York, fought similar evils in 1944 when wounded at the Battle of Saipan. We shouldn’t be fighting the same battle more than 70 years later.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My Mr. Wonderful was dueled into defeat in the fifth, and as such, all of our plays fizzled. We dropped $30.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll gamble that #5 CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE bounces back after a dud last time out over a very sloppy track at Belmont. My play is a $10 win/place bet on the Todd Pletcher trainee, and I’m hoping we get her 6-1 morning line price.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Dreamy Margarita, Race 4
Longshot: Clipthecouponannie, Race 8

R1

Honor Way
Friend of Liberty
Easy Way Out

HONOR WAY: Was an incredibly hard-luck loser earlier in the meet (trust me, I know, I bet her). She was claimed out of that race by an outfit that excels with new acquisitions; FRIEND OF LIBERTY: Was second Sunday and is wheeled back quickly by the new connections. Her best race is certainly good enough to win; EASY WAY OUT: Has not run a bad race to this point in her career. She faces winners for the first time, and these connections must be respected.

R2

Brooklyn Speights
Heat Check
Saratoga Colonel

BROOKLYN SPEIGHTS: Stretches back out to two turns, and he’s run fairly well at such routes in the past. This is a very confusing race, and this one’s past races at similar routes appear best; HEAT CHECK: May have simply detested sprinting at Belmont. He stretches back out here, and note that his two best races came going long; SARATOGA COLONEL: Comes back to the turf and tries two turns for the first time. The pedigree seems to indicate that the distance shouldn’t be a problem, but I hesitate to take a short price on a horse trying something new.

R3

Thebigfundamental
Sail Ahoy
Securitiz

THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL: Was a beaten favorite earlier in the meet over a tiring track that was not kind to his running style. The surface has been a bit more speed-favoring of late, and that should help him; SAIL AHOY: Was a promising 2-year-old back in 2015, and while he hasn’t moved forward a ton from that form, he’s run well in tough spots and should be going the right way late; SECURITIZ: Has plenty of ability, and his best race could win this, but he’s run second a lot, and I don’t like endorsing such horses on top.

R4

Dreamy Margarita
Mojo’s Queen
Veil Dance

DREAMY MARGARITA: Ran a puzzling clunker last time out after breaking her maiden impressively two back. I’m drawing a line through the most recent race, and she should appreciate the drop in class; MOJO’S QUEEN: Woke up when switched to the Ralph Nicks barn earlier this year. She led briefly at this level downstate, and Irad Ortiz returns to ride; VEIL DANCE: Just missed last time out in a race that did not set up for her late-running style. There should be more pace signed on here.

R5

Smokin Platinum
Dark Ops
Sea Foam

SMOKIN PLATINUM: Did everything but win in his debut, when he set the early pace and was reeled in late. Rosario rides back, and a repeat of that effort would make this one tough to beat; DARK OPS: Has worked very well ahead of his debut, and Rudy Rodriguez and Irad Ortiz must be respected. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s that he may want to go longer; SEA FOAM: Is bred to be a good one. He’s by Medaglia d’Oro and out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, and he’s another that may be worth watching as races get longer.

R6

Hard Scramble
Beasley
Grumpelstiltskin

HARD SCRAMBLE: Was third behind a well-meant horse last time out at this level. This race seems to set up for a closer, so this colt’s flexibility could be a big, big plus; BEASLEY: Returns off a long layoff after tackling heavy hitters in Florida earlier this season. He merits plenty of respect, but this seems shorter than he wants to go, the rail is a concern, and there won’t be any value here; GRUMPELSTILTSKIN: Is another coming off the bench, and he does so making his first start for Jeremiah Englehart. The recent works are very sharp, and he figures to be a major player if he’s ready to run.

R7

Summer Luck
Taperge
Initiate

SUMMER LUCK: Was third in a Grade 3 two back, and that day’s runner-up won a graded stakes here earlier in the meet. She’s got some tactical speed, which could come in handy given the relative lack of early zip in here; TAPERGE: Was beaten less than a length in a stakes race back in April and has been rested since that effort. She’d benefit from a quick early pace, and these connections are formidable; INITIATE: Just missed last time out when setting the early fractions, and she figures to be the main speed. If she’s left alone, she could be tough to run down.

R8

Clipthecouponannie
Quezon
Court Dancer

CLIPTHECOUPONANNIE: Was a big disappointment last time out at 2/5, but I’m willing to draw a line through that race, which came over a very sloppy track. She was also coming off a career-best effort, and a return to that form would make her morning line odds very appealing; QUEZON: Was second in this race last year and once again is worth a look. She may be at her best on a wet track, but her most recent effort was solid and she should be going well late; COURT DANCER: Hasn’t won in a while but figures to be a main pace player. She was second in a stakes race last time out, and this barn has had a tremendous meet to date.

R9

Tayler’s the Boss (MTO)
Carrera Cat
Centr of the Stage

CARRERA CAT: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list, but seems to be the one to beat if she does. She was fourth in her debut behind a well-meant Todd Pletcher charge, and improvement is logical at second asking; CENTR OF THE STAGE: Adds blinkers in her second turf start and is eligible to improve with a better trip. She’s had no trip luck in either of her first two starts; SCATBACK: Was bet heavily in her debut, where she ran fourth while racing greenly. She should improve in her second start, but the rail draw is a concern.

INTERLUDE: Charlottesville

WRITER’S NOTE: I grappled with the decision of whether or not to write this for most of Tuesday evening. I know, for a fact, that I’m going to get my fair share of “stick to sports” or “stick to horse racing” replies, and I’m at peace with that. However, after giving this an incredible amount of thought, there was no way I couldn’t say something. If you’re not interested in my thoughts on this matter, I completely respect and understand that. To make a long story short, though: This article is written because there’s a lot going on right now that’s more important than who I like in the third at Saratoga.

– – – – –

My great-uncle fought in World War II. He served in the Pacific and was wounded in the Battle of Saipan. Only lately has he been able to open up about it publicly (The Associated Press did an excellent piece on this in 2014 that you can read here if you’re so inclined).

Wilfred “Spike” Mailloux, who married my grandmother’s sister, is one of the greatest men I’ve ever had the pleasure of meeting, and certainly a true American hero. He’s pushing 100 years old, and he’s recently been honored as the last surviving member of Company B, 105th Regiment, 27th Division. I’ve never asked him about his service, and I’ve learned much of what I know through the articles that were written about him within the past few years.

I feel it safe to assume, though, that Uncle Spike didn’t think we’d be fighting the same battles he fought in 1944 in 2017.

Of course, I’m referring to the incidents of domestic terrorism in Charlottesville, Virginia, last weekend. By now, you all know that in the midst of battles between white supremacists and counter-protesters, a 32-year-old woman died after she was mowed down by a car that also injured scores of others.

I won’t pretend to understand the ideologies of hate groups at home and abroad. I’m a digital media expert that doubles as a semi-professional horse racing handicapper, and I’ll leave those discussions and theories to people who are much, much more well-versed in that sort of thing than I am. I’m also not going to turn this into a political matter, which seems to be all the rage nowadays (for whatever it’s worth, since I’m well aware that people may speculate, I’m a political centrist who registered as a Republican back when that meant something MUCH different than what it means now, and I’ve got ideas that will scare people on both sides of the political spectrum to death).

Instead of all of that, which I believe would do zero good and make the horrible “signal-to-noise” ratio in this country even worse, I’m simply going to ask one question: When, in the name of everything holy, did it become OK for the President of the United States to defend Nazis in any way, shape, or form?

We’ve all seen the speeches, and I’m going to remove all emotion from this analysis for the sake of reporting the facts as they happened. Saturday night, after Heather Heyer was killed by a white supremacist, President Trump gave a vague statement criticizing hatred, bigotry, and violence on many sides. If you thought he misspoke while uttering those last three words, he removed all doubt by saying them again, firmly and with so much conviction that a neo-Nazi website, The Daily Stormer, praised his comments.

Sunday, Donald Trump was quiet on Twitter while those around him condemned the attacks. Finally, on Monday, Trump broke his silence, but not until after several of the most influential figures in American business resigned from his American Manufacturing Council. While he had yet to make a clearer statement on the Charlottesville saga, he did not hesitate in calling out one of those businessmen, Ken Frazier of Merck Pharma, for what he called, in all-caps, “LOWER RIPOFF DRUG PRICES!”

Finally, at 1 p.m. Monday afternoon, nearly 48 hours after Heather Heyer was killed, Trump denounced white supremacists and Nazi organizations by name. It took 48 hours for the leader of the free world, one whose country dispatched a similar evil ideology seven decades earlier on the battlefields of Europe, to publicly condemn said ideology. Trump’s critics complained that it should not have taken this long for those remarks to be delivered and that those close to the president had already delivered comments in the same vein, while Team Trump complained about a lack of respect in the media (son Donald, Jr., complained about “moving goalposts”).

24 hours later, Trump’s comments took yet another turn, and more clearly resembled what he said Saturday. When behind the microphone at Trump Tower, he uttered the following statement.

“I think there is blame on both sides. You look at both sides. I think there is blame on both sides. You had a group on one side that was bad and a group on the other side that was very violent.”

And with that, here we are. Once again, please let me stress that none of what I have written in the previous five paragraphs was opinion-based. None of it is speculation. This is an actual timeline of an actual leader’s handling of an actual, national crisis. There was no spin, simply facts that we can all agree happened and that are backed up by videos and archived tweets.

Hate is not okay. This is a concept that we all learned in elementary school. Every American, regardless of race, creed, or color, has the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Not every white American, not every Catholic American, and not every American that was born here, but every single resident of this country. This isn’t a high-brow political concept where there are many viewpoints that would be acceptable or valid. This is stuff we all learned in kindergarten, and it’s stuff that’s driven home as we grow up and realize that there’s a great, big world out there.

This leads to another fact, one that is damning and inescapably true: The man that was elected to lead the United States of America, and the man whose job it is to get us through times of crisis with a steady hand, attributed part of the blame for the situation in Charlottesville to people who were protesting white supremacists, possibly including the woman whose life was taken by a white supremacist who drove a car into a crowd of people with the intent to kill or injure.

This isn’t a partisan issue. This is a situation where the only acceptable response is that the belief of white supremacy is universally condemned, as is violence unleashed in the name of that cause. There are no sides, and there are no moral dilemmas involved, as evidenced by the considerable number of high-ranking Republican politicians (including Vice President Mike Pence and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, among others) who didn’t feel the need to wait to say or do the right things.

Now is when emotion comes into play.

President Trump, was Heather Heyer to blame for the situation that took her life? Would you knowingly approach her parents and talk about the “very nice people” who enabled the acts of violence we saw this past weekend? Do you sleep easier at night knowing that a portion of the people who assembled in Charlottesville to broadcast the perceived superiority of their race did so, and I’m quoting former KKK leader David Duke here, “to fulfill the promises of Donald Trump?”

I didn’t vote for Donald Trump. Like a surprising number of fellow registered Republicans, I cast a reluctant vote for Hillary Clinton. Despite many reservations, I believed that she was much better-suited to handle leading the country through crises, which had become exceedingly more common in the past few years given the world’s unstable political climate. When Donald Trump won the election nine months ago, I hoped that he was ready to handle an issue like the one that popped up a few days ago in Charlottesville. I hoped I was wrong about him.

I wasn’t wrong.

In closing, I present this take on the matter put forth by a former college roommate of mine. This is Chris Barriere, a sports reporter based in Green Bay, Wisconsin, and if I’ve addressed this situation half as eloquently as he did when opening one of his sportscasts, then I’ve done a heck of a job.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fchrisbarrieresports%2Fvideos%2F1921596241461509%2F&show_text=0&width=560

Saratoga Race Course Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll: 8/16/17

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $819.75

I got in an interesting discussion online the other day about the current 3-year-old picture and the potential for an unconventional winner of the Champion 3-Year-Old Male Eclipse Award. Long story short, if Always Dreaming wins the Travers, he likely clinches the trophy, while Cloud Computing or Tapwrit would certainly have a significant (but not insurmountable) edge if one of them won the Midsummer Derby.

However, what if a non-winner of a Triple Crown race won the Travers? That opens the door for a horse like Oscar Performance, provided he steps up and beats older horses at the Grade 1 level. Additionally, what happens if a horse like American Anthem or Coal Front wins the Allen Jerkens and follows it up with a win in either the Breeders’ Cup Sprint or the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile? It’s a fascinating scenario, and the next domino falls in a week and a half at Saratoga.

MONDAY’S RESULTS: In short, ugh. Everything Magic lost a photo for second in the opener to a 45-1 shot, and one of the horses we keyed her with in exactas won. It was a painful way to drop $22.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth race. #4 MY MR. WONDERFUL ran a big race in his debut last month, which was rained off the turf. I’ll key him in $4 exactas above and below #2 SICILIA SAL, #6 JOE’S SMOKIN GUN, and #10 TEN EYCK, as well as in $3 doubles that use #4 PADEN and #6 ROCKFORD in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Claiborne entry, Race 7
Longshot: Paden, Race 6

R1

Mutasaawy
Kremlin
Bishop’s Castle

MUTASAAWY: Cruised home last time out when crushing maidens at Parx and seems to have taken to hurdles like a duck to water. This seems like a fairly soft spot to try winners for the first time; KREMLIN: Figures to be the main speed in here. He set the pace earlier this meet against better horses and could be dangerous if he gets loose early on; BISHOP’S CASTLE: Lost the jock last time out at Parx but has run several solid races of late, including a win two back.

R2

Spieth
Powerful Ally
D’ambrosio

SPIETH: Tries two turns for the first time in his second start off the layoff, and the pedigree indicates that this is exactly what he wants. He’s worked well and should be prominent early; POWERFUL ALLY: Was an OK third earlier in the meet in his first start off a freshening. Jose Ortiz riding back is a big plus; D’AMBROSIO: Is another stretching out to two turns with the pedigree to embrace such a route. The rider switch to Castellano is notable, but he finished behind my top pick last time out when that one probably needed the race.

R3

Motion entry
Muqtaser
Fire Away

MOTION ENTRY: Both HOLIDAY STAR and STREET FASHION can win this turf marathon. The former is a multiple graded stakes winner, while the latter exits a stakes race at Delaware Park; MUQTASER: Was brilliantly-ridden last time out by Joe Bravo in a win at this route. Don’t be surprised if Jersey Joe sends him again, especially in such a small field; FIRE AWAY: Loves this distance and may have needed his race earlier this month off a freshening. He was beaten less than two lengths in stakes company that day and merits respect here.

R4

Lady Constance
Jump for Joy
Dubb entry

LADY CONSTANCE: Has not won in a while, but that can be said of many in here, and this filly drops way down in class in this spot. Her lone try at anywhere close to this level was a tough-luck second two back; JUMP FOR JOY: Was a runaway winner last time out at Aqueduct, but that was almost a year and a half ago. Pletcher can get horses ready to run, though, and the fact that she is ineligible to be claimed today could speak volumes about the barn’s intentions; DUBB ENTRY: I prefer EASY WAY OUT, who graduated last time out after burning money twice at Aqueduct. The rider switch is a concern, but her usual effort puts her right there.

R5

My Mr. Wonderful
Ten Eyck
Joe’s Smokin Gun

MY MR. WONDERFUL: Ran well in his debut last month despite the race being rained off the turf. The connections should get the desired route today, and improvement is logical at second asking; TEN EYCK: Doesn’t draw a great post, but is bred up and down to be a very strong turf horse. He’s by Freud and out of a City Zip mare, and he’ll likely be a square price; JOE’S SMOKIN GUN: Was a solid second two back on turf before running in the same race my top pick exits. The connections are cold, but a repeat of the two-back effort could easily get him a piece of this. DIRT SELECTIONS: MY MR. WONDERFUL, STOLEN PISTOL, JOE’S SMOKIN GUN.

R6

Paden
Rockford
Players Group entry

PADEN: Has run well against better horses going longer, one-turn route distances and ships in for a high-percentage barn. There doesn’t appear to be much early speed signed on, so don’t be surprised if he’s forwardly-placed; ROCKFORD: Generally runs the same race every time out and was a solid second earlier this month in his first start for David Jacobson. He’s another with tactical speed, and his best puts him right there; PLAYERS GROUP ENTRY: I prefer FULL SALUTE, who comes back to the dirt after a failed experiment on turf last time out. He won at this distance two back beneath Jose Ortiz, and that pilot returns here.

R7

Claiborne entry
End Play
Fear

CLAIBORNE ENTRY: COMMEND is clearly the horse to beat here. He exits the Grade 2 Highlander at Woodbine, which was won by world-class turf sprinter Green Mask, and this spot represents significant class relief; END PLAY: Was beaten less than a length in a strong race for the level earlier this meet. He’s run well here in the past and generally runs the same race every time out; FEAR: Has won three of his last four and merits a longshot look. The lone defeat in that stretch was in a dirt race, and turf is clearly what he wants.

R8

Mobridge
Damage Control
No Texting

MOBRIDGE: Beat a number of these rivals last time out and comes back at the level here. If there’s a concern, it’s that all three visible wins in the form were at Belmont, but note that he ran fairly well going two turns at Gulfstream earlier this year; DAMAGE CONTROL: Was beaten a length by my top pick last time out and didn’t have much pace to close into that day. If someone goes with that horse early, it could set up for this one; NO TEXTING: Was fourth in that common race, but was inexplicably rated that day after showing ample early speed in his previous six starts. Given that fact, the rider switch is no shock.

R9

Sly Beauty
March X Press
Fairyland

SLY BEAUTY: Ran into runaway Schuylerville winner Dream It Is in her debut and jogged last time out. This barn is starting to turn strong efforts into wins, and this one could have plenty of talent; MARCH X PRESS: Closed like a freight train to win her debut earlier in the meet at this route. There should certainly be plenty of early speed in front of her; FAIRYLAND: Exits a Group 3 at Royal Ascot, and the blinkers come back on. If there’s a concern here, it’s the rail draw, which has not been kind in turf sprints this meet.

R10

Borsa Vento
Irst
Britain

BORSA VENTO: Drops way down in class, and given the horrible trip, his last race is a throwout. He’s run well at this distance against better in the past, and I’ll give him another shot; IRST: Looked like a promising horse when second here last summer behind an eventual Grade 3 winner, but he hasn’t moved forward since then. The class drop should certainly help, as would a pace battle up front; BRITAIN: Has shown some zip since dropping to the maiden claiming ranks, but was a distant fourth at this level earlier in the meet. Still, he merits respect given the powerful trainer/jockey combination.