BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $938.45

I spent a few days earlier this week at the Racing and Gaming Conference. By and large, it was a fantastic event that drew people from around both the horse racing and gambling industries. I met officials, horsepeople, and reporters alike, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.

However, they whiffed on a panel discussing the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, or HISA. While hearing from HISA CEO Lisa Lazarus was insightful, highly-respected trainer John Kimmel was part of the panel. The group took 49 minutes to ask Kimmel, the only person in the group to works with horses on a daily basis, a question, instead deferring to political types (one of whom went on a 15-minute monologue about the process behind the nominating committee).

As a colleague pointed out during the session, this is an awfully good example of why horse racing has struggled at times. Want to know if HISA is working? Talk to a horseperson who’s in the trenches every day. We don’t need more suits. We need more horsepeople.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: I couldn’t have given you the winner of the fifth race without the “ALL” button, and my $36 Pick Four ticket fizzled.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: My action comes early. I’ll lean on #4 CARAGATE in the second race in hopes she’ll run her record at this meet to 2-for-2. She’s a single for me in $10 doubles starting in the second that end with #4 GET THE CANDY and #6 JILL’S A HOT MESS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Busy Morning, Race 9
Longshot: Ableton, Race 10

R1

Olympic Dreams
Sensibleconclusion
Lucky Mucho Man

#6 OLYMPIC DREAMS: Is a reluctant top pick in one of two highly-perplexing races on the Thursday program. He was bet first time out in a turf route, when he wasn’t persevered with downstate. The blinkers go on, and maybe he improves at second asking on the class drop; #1 SENSIBLECONCLUSION: Makes his third start of the season, which is no small feat, and he’s shown a new dimension in his last several outings. A speed horse over the winter, he’s shown he can rate and pass others, which could prove helpful; #2 LUCKY MUCHO MAN: Was third in a race at this route last month, as well as a similar race at Belmont two back. At a minimum, you know he’s been reasonably competitive at this level, and his usual race likely gets him a slice.

R2

Caragate
Ifihadachance
Ok Honey

#4 CARAGATE: Ran away with a first-level allowance race last month, and while that was far from the strongest race for the level, she sure seems to be going the right way on speed figures. That 79 Beyer Speed Figure was a new career-high, and Castellano stays up; #5 IFIHADACHANCE: Hasn’t won in a while, but is competitive on numbers and sports two solid efforts over this surface last year. This barn usually wins a fair bit up here, and it’s due to get rolling at some point; #1 OK HONEY: Likely went a bit shorter than she prefers last time out, and she gets some added ground here. That day’s runner-up came right back to win, and she should get some pace to run at in this event.

R3

Jil’s a Hot Mess
Get the Candy
Bucci entry

#6 JILL’S A HOT MESS: Does her best running at this route and was a good second behind a stakes-caliber filly last time out. She won here twice a season ago, retains John Velazquez, and may have enough speed to save some ground going into the turn; #4 GET THE CANDY: Sure seems like the one the rest will have to run down. She hasn’t won in a while, but she’s certainly the speed on the speed on paper and has every right to get very comfortable out of the gate; BUCCI ENTRY: I prefer #1A SASSY MELISSA, who was wide last time against several of these and may have bounced off of some solid efforts downstate. A return to form gives her a shot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s a bit closer in the early going.

R4

Flamingo Hawk
Stage Left
Mexican Wonder Boy

#5 FLAMINGO HAWK: Ran a career-best race last time out and is protected off the claim in this spot. However, that was a pretty strong race for the level, and this event includes several rivals he beat last month. Anything close to that lifetime-best performance would make him tough; #4 STAGE LEFT: Romped against first-level allowance foes last month and clearly enjoys the Spa. He’s 3-for-5 over this main track, rarely runs a poor race, and would benefit from a battle up front; #2 MEXICAN WONDER BOY: Didn’t run poorly when second last time out, but he gets wheeled back very quickly first off the claim. His best may be good enough, but I don’t think he’ll be alone up front, and the short turnaround time is a definite question mark.

R5

Childers
Forbidden Secret
Clear the Deck

#2 CHILDERS: Is kin to three multiple winners, including Grade 2-winning 2-year-old Shotski, and has been working well ahead of his unveiling. Several of those drills have been from the gate, which leads me to believe he’ll be prominent right away; #6 FORBIDDEN SECRET: Checked back early in his debut a few weeks ago, which was won by a runaway victor. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back, and the experience edge he has over most of this group could be a sizable asset; #5 CLEAR THE DECK: Has hit the board in all three starts to date and wouldn’t be a shock. He adds blinkers for Ken McPeek, and he’s shown an ability to rate, which isn’t common among 2-year-olds at this point in the season.

R6

Orange Freeze
Dream On Cara
Sarah’s Dialed In

#8 ORANGE FREEZE: Remember the two confounding races? This is the other one. In a field of 2-year-olds without much proven form signed on, this one intrigues me the most. This daughter of Freud is out of a mare that won on the turf, and she hammered for $112,000 across the street last summer; #3 DREAM ON CARA: Rated in a race without much early speed last time, which is rarely a recipe for success. Castellano rides back, the blinkers go on, and I think there’s a chance she gets a friendlier race shape here; #5 SARAH’S DIALED IN: Debuts for Mike Dini, whose first-out numbers on turf aren’t great. However, she’s kin to a few OK grass runners, including a couple that won going long. Against a field full of question marks, that may be enough.

R7

Leddy (MTO)
Immortalization
Charles Chrome

#7 IMMORTALIZATION: Showed speed against better last time out, when he faded to fourth in a non-winners-of-one allowance at this route. That zip he showed wasn’t a fluke, and I don’t know if any other runner in this field can match strides with him early; #3 CHARLES CHROME: Makes his first start for David Jacobson off of a four-month break. His prior connections ran him in a few stakes races last season, and he didn’t run poorly in either event. If he’s ready, he’s got a big shot; #2 VETERANS BEACH: Has had far too many chances for my liking and is impossible to endorse on top, but he does generally run the same race every time out and drops into the claiming ranks. His last-out effort here was fine, and that day’s runner-up came right back to win at next asking.

R8

Nabokov
Complete Agenda
Warrior Johny

#3 NABOKOV: Spat the bit in the Grade 3 Dwyer and wasn’t persevered with that day, when he went off 2-1 in a race won by Travers hopeful Charge It. He gets Lasix again today after leaving the stakes ranks, and that could enable him to run back to a strong two-back effort downstate; #2 COMPLETE AGENDA: Has been chasing some very good ones of late and was most recently fourth behind graded stakes winner Keepmeinmind. That was his first race off a three-month freshening, and perhaps he’s rounding into form in the back half of his 3-year-old campaign; #5 WARRIOR JOHNY: Ships in for a barn that’s won at a high rate with a small string this season. He may have moved a bit early last time out in his first start against winners, but he’s been putting up decent speed figures and may be a bit of a price in here.

R9

Busy Morning
Howdyoumakeurmoney
Dream Central

#6 BUSY MORNING: Took a step forward last time out with an impressive score where she powered away to win by six. She also wasn’t disgraced when the winner of her debut race turned out to be an OK runner, and I think she’s sitting on a new career-best effort at third asking; #5 HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY: Hasn’t won in quite a while, but her 2022 season includes several tries against open stakes company. She hasn’t been beaten too much in those races, and while I question if she really wants two turns, I don’t question her ability at this level; #4 DREAM CENTRAL: Sat a perfect trip last time out in a similar race, when she made the last move the winning move. The runners from that event haven’t come back to run well, though, and it’s telling that Lezcano hops off to ride my top pick (who probably goes off the favorite).

R10

Loz
Lookin Grand
Ableton

#8 LOZ: Drops in for a tag and has been working considerably better the past few weeks ahead of his first start against maiden claiming company. It’s possible that doesn’t mean much, but between that and the return to a two-turn configuration, I think there’s stuff to like in a wide-open finale; #6 LOOKIN GRAND: Comes up from Belmont and was one-paced in several one-turn route races. That running style likely fits this two-turn race far better, and John Velazquez sees fit to hang around and ride back for Charlton Baker; #2 ABLETON: Finished third behind Shinsun last time out, and I think that one’s got some talent. Blinkers go on this John Kimmel trainee, and a repeat effort gives him a chance at a big price.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $974.45

Greetings from Saratoga! It’s exciting to say I’ll be here each day through Saturday to watch live racing at one of the sport’s last remaining cathedrals. To do so while spending some time with friends and family is as good as it gets.

I flew in Sunday, and if you want to laugh at my pain, read the latest edition of “The Dark Day Files.” Monday featured a trip to a local mini-golf course, where I had a wonderful time crushing the hopes, dreams, and aspirations of friends Joe Nevills and Natalie Voss. In doing so, I won a trophy Pink Sheet alum Nicole Russo says is possessed, which should make it great friends with my cat once I bring it back to California.

I’ll be in the backyard Wednesday with my parents, my sister, and my two nieces, who are both experiencing Saratoga for the very first time. There is a lot their “funcle” has to teach them before the day is through. By the Wednesday nightcap, I fully expect them to know how to spot a bad favorite, criticize ticket structures of public handicappers (except me, of course), and identify well-meant horses in the paddock.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: The trip east from Hades was made a bit less painful by Fire Sword, whose romp in the fourth race keyed a very nice day in this section. I had a $20 win bet and a $5 double ending in the fifth, all of which resulted in a profit of $125.50.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll go after the early Pick Four and attempt to extract some money out of a horse that could be a pretty heavy favorite. Remember, this sequence starts in the third race, not the second (due to the opener over fences), and my 50-cent ticket goes as follows: 6 with ALL with 5,6,8 with 2,5,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $36.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Snap Decision, Race 1
Longshot: Shinsun, Race 9

R1

Snap Decision
Down Royal
Song for Someone

#6 SNAP DECISION: Gives plenty of weight to his rivals in the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard, but for good reason, as he’s been one of the top steeplechasers in training for the past few seasons. He’s won 10 of 15 career starts over fences, and anything close to his best would beat these; #1 DOWN ROYAL: Pulled off a mild upset in winning the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick earlier in the meet. This is a tougher group, to be sure, but he’s won five of his last six starts and may be the one they have to hold off late; #3 SONG FOR SOMEONE: Has found a power-packed spot in which to make his American debut. His races over very good European hurdlers this past winter were solid, and he wouldn’t be the first European jumper to cross the Atlantic with aplomb.

R2

Greeley and Ben
Quick Return
Casalsa

#1 GREELEY AND BEN: Is an absolutely fascinating favorite. He’s won 20 of 34 starts, many against much better fields, and makes his first start for the David Jacobson barn. Jacobson’s returned to the sport after an absence of nearly four years, and if he’s got this one on the right track, look out; #4 QUICK RETURN: Beat a slightly lower-level group last time out and was claimed by Joe Sharp. While the favorite looms large, this one’s recent record looks far better if you toss the two clunkers at Churchill Downs, and he’s not without a chance; #5 CASALSA: Tried turf first off the claim last time out and didn’t take to it at all. His two and three-back efforts on dirt were just fine, and he sports a win at this route from the 2021 meet.

R3

Mommasgottarun
Perfect Provision
Wicked Happy

#6 MOMMASGOTTARUN: Was claimed by Brad Cox last time out and takes a steeper drop than it may appear. The drop in claiming price isn’t alarming, but she was second earlier this meet in an open $25,000 claimer. This one is for non-winners of two, which represents the shallowest waters she’s ever encountered; #3 PERFECT PROVISION: Is another taking a significant drop, and in this case, it comes with a surface switch from synthetic to dirt. She ran reasonably well in a few dirt sprints early in her career, and her recent works haven’t been bad; #2 WICKED HAPPY: Makes her first start since late-April and gets a big rider switch to Javier Castellano, who doesn’t ride much for this barn. Her figures from the winter aren’t bad, and Castellano’s been riding as well as anyone in the jockey’s room this summer.

R4

I’m Buzzy
Tales of Makenna
Synonymous

#6 I’M BUZZY: Ships in for Mike Dini and gets a tepid nod in a wide-open event. She hasn’t won in a while, but just missed last time out, has run against higher-level competition for most of the year, and could sit an ideal stalking trip; #4 TALES OF MAKENNA: Almost certainly needed her last-out effort, which came off a pretty long break. She’s shown a pretty strong closing kick, and a repeat of her effort two back against state-bred allowance foes would make her a player here; #3 SYNONYMOUS: Exits a pretty fast race for the level and was wide after making up some ground on the backstretch. Her win came going two turns at Aqueduct, this is a smaller field, and I think she’s got a puncher’s chance to light up the tote board in a race where I’d advise you to go as deep as you can.

R5

Mija
Justifying
Padma

#5 MIJA: Has a pedigree that needs no introduction, but I’ll give it one anyway because that’s just the kind of guy I am (hi, J.D.!). She’s by Curlin and out of Grade 1 winner Rachel’s Valentina, which of course makes her second dam champion Rachel Alexandra. The workouts are strong, John Velazquez rides for Todd Pletcher, and as a fan, I can’t wait to see her run; #8 JUSTIFYING: Sports the pattern I love seeing from Steve Asmussen runners. Her two-back work was very fast, and she’s since recorded a solid drill ahead of her debut. Offspring of Justify have gotten off to fast starts, and the outside draw is a plus; #6 PADMA: Sports a very flashy series of works for a trainer who doesn’t often ask much of horses that have yet to run. The pedigree says she probably wants to go a bit longer, but she may very well be fast enough to run well here on talent alone.

R6

Nabokov (MTO)
Maritime Wings
Mackillop

#5 MARITIME WINGS: Ran into Big Invasion in his U.S. debut, and while this bunch is far from bad, there are no such monsters here. He ran well enough as a 2-year-old to finish second behind highly-regarded Point Lonsdale in two graded races, and the addition of Lasix is a big plus; #8 MACKILLOP: Has been gelded since a fourth-place finish behind some talented runners downstate in May. He was talented enough to win going two turns on debut, and the addition of Flavien Prat is a plus; #2 MO REWARDS: Probably needed his return from a 10-month layoff earlier this summer, where he still ran an OK fourth despite breaking from the far outside. This barn hasn’t had the best summer, but Luis Saez sees fit to ride and a move forward makes him a player.

R7

U Glow Girl
Crypto Mama
Oh Donna

#6 U GLOW GIRL: Flashed some early zip before fading to third in her debut. She was, however, on the wrong part of the track that day, racing inside when the rail was dead for most of the first week or so. Experience and a friendlier setup could both work in her favor; #7 CRYPTO MAMA: Closed at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing for most debuting horses to do. She was second that day, but ships up from Monmouth Park, attracts Joel Rosario, and has every opportunity to fire a bigger shot; #4 OH DONNA: Fetched the relatively low price of $35,000 at auction earlier this year, but sports a flashy recent gate drill for a high-percentage barn that can win with first-time starters. Irad Ortiz, Jr., likely had options, but he landed here, and that could be a clue.

R8

Caramocha
Mia Bea Star
U Guys Are No Fun

#5 CARAMOCHA: Goes second off the bench for a smaller outfit that’s already won a few races at this stand. Her last-out effort came going six furlongs, which is shorter than she probably wants. The stretch-out should help, as should the presence of Javier Castellano; #6 MIA BEA STAR: Hasn’t won in a while, and goes out for a barn that’s winless at the meet, but generally runs the same race every time out. Earlier this month, that was good enough for a runner-up finish in a starter handicap, and the faster they go early, the better this closer’s chances figure to be; #1 U GUYS ARE NO FUN: Cuts back in distance after tiring going two turns last time out. She’s run several fast races at Finger Lakes, and she wouldn’t be a huge shock if she runs back to those, but it’s telling she’s 0-for-2 over this surface with no in-the-money finishes.

R9

Dakota Gold
Shinsun
Marinara Sauced

#8 DAKOTA GOLD: Came up short as an odds-on favorite in a similar race last month and will look to atone here. That day’s winner doesn’t show up, and even with the bigger field signed on, this seems like a softer spot. His usual race would make him tough to beat; #3 SHINSUN: Made a big move against open company to run third earlier this summer in a race without much early zip signed on. There should be a friendlier set-up here, and the New York-bred by a top Japanese runner and out of a German-bred mare merits a long look at a nice price; #5 MARINARA SAUCED: Was a bit one-paced last time out against older foes, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. That race’s third-place finisher is in here, too, but this one draws favorably and has a right to move forward in what’s just his fourth career outing.

R10

Ocean Air
Go Big Green
More Mango

#10 OCEAN AIR: Has not run since October and draws a terrible post in the Wednesday finale. However, her 2021 form was very good. She spent most of the year chasing some pretty good horses, such as Giggle Factory and Kitten by the Sea. If she’s ready to run, she’s capable of springing a mild upset; #5 GO BIG GREEN: Drops in class after spending most of her season against allowance and optional claiming-level foes. She’s won both on the lead and coming from off the pace, and I think she’ll appreciate the shallower waters; #2 MORE MANGO: Comes back to what’s probably the right level after a troubled trip last time out in a starter allowance race. Her two-back effort against similar foes of that nature was far from bad, and she broke her maiden at this route two years ago. At her likely price, she hits me as a must-use.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $848.95

When you read this Sunday morning, chances are I’ll already be on a plane coming east. Thanks to the wonderful folks at Catena Media, I’m headed to this week’s Racing and Gaming Conference, then taking a few days of vacation to see family and, of course, watch horses turn left in-person at one of the sport’s last remaining cathedrals.

I’m an easy guy to find (I’m 6’5”, so many times the answer is, “just look up”). If you’ll be at the conference or at the track this coming week/weekend, come say hi! Saratoga’s a truly special place, and it’s always exciting to make the cross-country trek from California to enjoy it in-person.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Mount Athos lost all chance at the start of the second race and ran exceptionally well just to hit the board. I dropped $25.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll look to the fourth and try to beat the 7/5 morning line favorite. #2 COST BASIS isn’t without a shot, but I prefer #7 FIRE SWORD, especially at that one’s likely price. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that runner and key him in $5 doubles starting in the fourth that end with #2 MRS. GREEN and #9 PARENTS PRIDE in the fifth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Big Invasion, Race 9
Longshot: Shesjustanicegirl, Race 2

R1

Kbcya Later
Deccan Prince
Rock Chalk

#5 KBCYA LATER: Has improved in each of his three career outings and boasts a pedigree that says he may like the turf. He’s by Broken Vow, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and was third behind an impressive runaway winner earlier in the meet; #1 DECCAN PRINCE: Flopped going two turns last time out and cuts back to a sprint distance here. His debut at Belmont going short was fine, and a repeat of that effort gives him a chance; #8 ROCK CHALK: Debuts for George Weaver and has a right to be precocious. His dam was a first-out winner, and that one is kin to eight other winners, too. The downstate bullet on July 30th is notable, and he’s got as good a shot as any in this wide-open lid-lifter.

R2

Conseillante
Shesjustanicegirl
Moma

#7 CONSEILLANTE: Is one of two Chad Brown trainees, and she’s got a pedigree that’s very, very interesting. She’s a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Paradise Woods and stakes-winning turf sprinter Forest Chatter, and her dam is kin to multiple Grade 3-winning grass runner Tajaaweed; #6 SHESJUSTANICEGIRL: Is by Justify, out of a Galileo mare, and may be far too big a price given that pedigree. This $170,000 yearling purchase is out of a half-sister to champion Escena, and if she runs to her bloodlines, that 12-1 morning line price could be a massive overlay; #8 MOMA: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and is another bred to be any kind. This daughter of Uncle Mo is out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Awesome Maria, who hails from the female family of fellow Grade 1 victors Discreet Cat and Discreetly Mine.

R3

Big Q
Prairie Fire
Shadolamo

#4 BIG Q: Takes a big drop in class after several tries against optional claiming company. Her last effort came against stakes-quality turf sprinters and is a total throw-out. Her dirt races earlier this year were very strong, and she hits me as a logical favorite; #1 PRAIRIE FIRE: Was claimed back by Charlton Baker, who had some success with her earlier this season. She topped similar-level foes two starts ago downstate, and that day’s runner-up has come back to run well twice here so far this summer; #3 SHADOLAMO: Won a race against slightly higher-level competition three starts back, and there are reasons to draw lines through her last two clunkers. She flopped in the mud two back, didn’t take to the turf last time out, and has a right to improve now that she’s doing what she wants.

R4

Fire Sword
Cost Basis
Ebben

#7 FIRE SWORD: Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start since November. The 1-2 finishers from that race came right back to win at next asking, and it sure seems like this one has the ability to dictate terms from the jump; #2 COST BASIS: Is another exiting a key race, having chased Mr Phil and Jaxon Traveler back in April. He’s been off four months, but his best race could certainly win this and he merits respect if he’s ready to go; #6 EBBEN: Was claimed by Tom Amoss in mid-June and makes his first start for that outfit here. This spot didn’t come up light, but he’s shown an ability to run well at this distance and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown.

R5

Mrs. Green
Parents Pride
Yamas

#2 MRS. GREEN: Did everything but win earlier this summer, when she fell by a nose in her first start at the Spa. She’s exited some pretty classy races, and this may be a bunch she can beat in order to earn her diploma; #9 PARENTS PRIDE: Boasts a stellar bottom-side pedigree, being out of a stakes-winning turfer that’s a full sister to Grade 1 winner Real Solution. Sire Maclean’s Music can certainly throw runners, and while the far outside post isn’t ideal, she’s been working well ahead of her unveiling and shows some promise; #7 YAMAS: Debuted with a fourth-place finish in the same race my top pick exits. This barn’s first-out numbers aren’t great, so I’m expecting a significant step forward, especially given the rider switch to Luis Saez.

R6

Firing Bullets
Twin Mischief
Chocolate Gelato

#10 FIRING BULLETS: Has been doing just that ahead of her debut, one where she’s drawn a cushy outside post. She hammered for $210,000 at auction earlier this season, is a half sister to stakes winner I Get It, and certainly looks like she’s got lots of ability; #6 TWIN MISCHIEF: Has the Steve Asmussen work pattern I really like, with a strong two-back move followed by a more recent slower, maintenance-style work. She traces back to the classy Lakeway on the bottom of her pedigree and has a right to be a runner; #8 CHOCOLATE GELATO: Flopped at odds of 1/2 earlier this summer, when she was a one-paced third without any real excuses. She does have an experience edge over most of this field, though, and it’s not like that race came back slowly on speed figures.

R7

Caragate (MTO)
Spungie
Home for Christmas

#3 SPUNGIE: Has every right to need this event after a year-long layoff, but she’s definitely the one to beat if she’s ready to run. Her speed figures from last year tower over the rest of this bunch, and Bill Mott can certainly get horses ready off of long breaks like this one; #2 HOME FOR CHRISTMAS: Seems to have meshed with jockey Joel Rosario, who piloted her to a wire-to-wire score two back and rode her to a solid second a few weeks ago. Her tactical speed is a real asset, and she figures to be a big part of the early pace; #6 OUT OF SIGHT: Was inexplicably rated last time in the same race my second choice exits. She likely wants to be up closer, which explains the rider switch, and while I think she prefers the downstate venues, her best race puts her right there.

R8

Brattle House
Betsy Blue
Sweet Willemina

#5 BRATTLE HOUSE: Has yet to finish out of the exacta in six starts to date and has looked very impressive so far this season. Her two runaway wins at Belmont going a bit longer were strong, and I can’t see anyone keeping her honest early on here; #4 BETSY BLUE: Is another consistent runner, with six wins and 14 top-three finishes in 15 tries. She most recently flew late to finish a close second against similar-quality foes, and she’d benefit from another runner going with the likely favorite early; #6 SWEET WILLEMINA: Comes in off of two wins in a row at Parx and gets a major class test here. However, Frankie Pennington sees fit to make the trip up from Pennsylvania for just one mount, which I see as a sign of confidence.

R9

Big Invasion
Sky and Sand
Cadamosto

#2 BIG INVASION: Has won five turf sprints in a row and will likely be an odds-on favorite in the Mahony. He earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in winning the Grade 3 Quick Call last month. Anything close to that sort of effort would mean the race is for second; #3 SKY AND SAND: Gets a rider switch to Jose Ortiz for this event, one that could move him forward at a price. His three-back win at Churchill Downs was solid, and I think he’s got a chance to hit the board and spice up the vertical exotics; #1 CADAMOSTO: Is this race’s wild card. He runs here after tackling some of Europe’s best turf sprinters, and he was a very credible fourth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. However, they don’t necessarily breed for sprinter speed over there, and this race came up very strong for the level.

R10

Cryo (MTO)
Reckless Spirit
Brazillionaire

#3 RECKLESS SPIRIT: Ran second in a race that’s turned out to be a key one. That day’s winner and third-place finisher came back to win at next asking, and it seems like this 5-year-old gelding is in top form for trainer H. James Bond; #2 BRAZILLIONAIRE: Has won two in a row and stretches out to two turns first off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart. I’m not quite sure two turns is in his wheelhouse, but he’s gotten pretty good of late, so it’s logical to take a shot here while protecting a new acquisition; #1 WAR STRATEGY: Found new life at Woodbine, where he’s run well in a pair of 2022 outings. He tries winners for the first time, and his connections seem to have found a fairly soft spot for the level.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $877.95

One of today’s stakes races is the Evan Shipman for older New York-breds. A few years ago, Diversify used this event as a springboard to the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, which he won in style for the late Rick Violette.

However, the race has been changed, and, in my opinion, not for the better. Instead of going 1 1/8 miles and starting and finishing in front of the grandstand, this field will go a mile out of the Wilson chute. On paper, there’s no reason to change this race, and the shorter distance doesn’t make it any more or less attractive.

To this point in the meet, the new chute hasn’t offended me as much as I thought it might. However, I’ve said all along that I can’t back anything which lessens two-turn dirt races at New York’s premier meet. This does that, and it does so in a way that bashes one over the head. Bad move, NYRA.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Great logic, lousy results. I thought Mr. Connecticut was very beatable in the fifth and that On Palm Sunday may get loose on the lead. Both of those hunches were correct, but I couldn’t have ever given you the big-priced horse that got the money. I dropped $29.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: It’s entirely possible, maybe even likely, that I scratch out of most of my action. However, in the event #12 CHIARA runs in the ninth, I need to play her. I’ll have a $20 win bet, and I’ll box Chiara, #3 COOLCATSNKITTENS, and #5 ELI DANCER in $2 exactas.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Ny Traffic, Race 3
Longshot: Chiara, Race 9

R1

Im Just Kiddin
Nice ’n Spicy
Kingsley Creek

#1 IM JUST KIDDIN: Ran well to be second in her debut earlier this summer and goes dirt-to-turf in the Friday opener. Her pedigree suggests she’ll love the lawn, and John Kimmel trainees often get better with experience, so she hits me as a formidable favorite; #4 NICE ’N SPICY: Debuts for Mike Maker and is kin to four winners. Her dam is a half to a pair of stakes winners, and offspring of Sharp Azteca have shown plenty of precocity, so there’s reason to believe she’s well-meant; #6 KINGSLEY CREEK: Flashed speed before fading to fifth in her unveiling downstate and, like the favorite, has every right to step forward for Kimmel. The weight break is a plus, and she figures to be prominent early at a bit of a price.

R2

Run Up the Score
Regina
Pout

#2 RUN UP THE SCORE: Drops in for a tag for the first time, and there are plenty of reasons to toss her last-out clunker at Ellis Park. It was in the slop, and she went very fast early on. I think she’ll appreciate the class drop and have every right to earn the diploma for trainer Chad Brown; #6 REGINA: Probably needed her last-out effort, which doubled as her first start in five months. She goes back to the dirt, attracts Jose Lezcano, and has shown she can run well at this one-mile distance; #3 POUT: Has been off more than nine months but showed a little talent as a 2-year-old, including a close-up second against similar at Churchill Downs. Nick Zito’s on an epic cold stream at the moment, but this one has races that fit and wouldn’t be a shock.

R3

Ny Traffic
Saint Selby
My Boy Tate

#6 NY TRAFFIC: Was last seen chasing Jackie’s Warrior in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt, and with all due respect to this classy bunch of state-breds, the opposition in the John Morrissey is a far cry from that. He’s 3-for-3 against New York-bred competition over the past few years and looms very large from his outside post; #1 SAINT SELBY: Comes in off of a pair of runaway wins downstate. He has enough early speed to make the rail draw an asset, and the presence of aggressive regular rider Kendrick Carmouche is a plus; #4 MY BOY TATE: Has never been worse than third in six local starts, one of which was a second-place finish in this race last year. He’s been off since a rare clunker in March, but the effort we’ve come to expect from him gives him a big chance to earn a piece of this.

R4

Latest Edition
Queen of Lies
Cupere

#1 LATEST EDITION: Adds Lasix and retains Javier Castellano for this wide-open maiden claiming event. She had a very eventful trip last time out at Belmont and was fourth behind a next-out winner. Castellano rides back for Morley, and those two have done a lot of damage to this point in the meet; #6 QUEEN OF LIES: Runs for a tag for the first time and attracts Joel Rosario, which is a major rider switch. Two turns is a question mark, but her pedigree says she may be able to get this trip; #2 CUPERE: Was fifth in the race my top pick exits and was last early on in that event, which didn’t have a fast early pace. There seems to be at least a little bit of zip signed on here, and the faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be.

R5

Khafre
I Am the Law
Commander Compton

#4 KHAFRE: Takes a big drop and returns to the dirt for what sure seems like a weak race for this level. He was second against allowance foes at Belmont in an off-the-turf race, and anything close to his best would make him tough to top; #3 I AM THE LAW: Broke his maiden two back and missed by just a neck in his first start against winners. Joel Rosario rides back for John Terranova, and at least this one seems to be going the right way, form-wise; #5 COMMANDER COMPTON: Dueled throughout to graduate last time out at Churchill Downs and faces winners for the first time. Again, this isn’t the best field for this level we’ll see all summer, and it certainly seems like they figured out he’s a speed horse last time.

R6

Mashnee Girl
Chasing Cara
Bank On Anna

#3 MASHNEE GIRL: Is a tepid top pick in a wide-open renewal of the Union Avenue. She cuts back from a route to a sprint after running third against open allowance foes. Kendrick Carmouche piloted her to a pair of wins earlier this season, and she could end a very long drought for trainer Mark Hennig; #7 CHASING CARA: Comes back to the state-bred ranks and romped two back in a race at this distance downstate. Javier Castellano rides for a small outfit, one that’s won twice already this season; #4 BANK ON ANNA: May have needed her last effort off a bit of a freshening, and that came against open company earlier this season. She won three of four before that two-month break, and she’s got back races that would make her a contender.

R7

Al Qahira
Bahamian Club
Gal in a Rush

#5 AL QAHIRA: Set the early pace in the Grade 3 Lake George last time out and takes a significant class drop. In doing so, she also gets Lasix, which isn’t allowed in graded stakes races. Add in that she may be getting better with experience, and I think she’ll be tough; #2 BAHAMIAN CLUB: Ran a clunker in her first outing since February last time out, but has every right to step forward here beneath new rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. She won her debut going two turns, which is far from easy to do; #3 GAL IN A RUSH: Has never crossed the wire first but always seems to fire. She was second in a stakes race at Woodbine last time out, and her pedigree says this two-turn route won’t be an issue.

R8

Bankit
Tiergan
Market Alert

#1 BANKIT: Headlines the Evan Shipman, which for reasons passing understanding has been moved to the Wilson chute. He was last seen running sixth of 16 in the Group 2 Godolphin Mile in Dubai, and he’s shown he’s capable of firing some big shots; #5 TIERGAN: Romped over optional claimers at this route less than two weeks ago and gets wheeled back quickly by new trainer Bill Morey. This operation excels with new acquisitions, and while this is a class hike, he fits on speed figures; #6 MARKET ALERT: Beat several of these rivals last time out in the Saginaw at Belmont. Two turns is a question mark, and he’s 0-for-3 at the Spa, but he’s running career-best races and can’t be ignored at a bit of a price.

R9

Chiara
Coolcatsnkittens
Eli Dancer

#12 CHIARA: May be a big price but fits here and could light up the tote board. She’s been competitive in each of her last two outings and would retain Luis Saez if she draws in off of the also-eligible list. If she’s allowed to run, I think she’s a must-use; #3 COOLCATSNKITTENS: Comes back to the maiden claiming ranks after misfiring against maiden special weight foes at Belmont. Her two-back effort was a career-best, but it’s a bit alarming she’s worked just once since that June 26th clunker; #5 ELI DANCER: Tries turf for the first time and adds Lasix for a barn hitting at a 23% clip this calendar year. They tried to get her on the grass for her debut, which was washed out and moved to the main track, and her recent four-furlong turf drill was a very good one.

R10

Gallina (MTO)
Whatlovelookslike
Lookin to Fly

#8 WHATLOVELOOKSLIKE: Has improved in every start for Todd Pletcher and broke her maiden last time out. She did so in a pretty fast clocking, too, and Flavien Prat seeing fit to ride back is a big, big plus; #1 LOOKIN TO FLY: Has two wins and a third over this turf course, including a last-out win over weaker foes in her 2022 debut. She’s protected here and could come rolling late if there’s a lively pace up front; #4 SINFULLY SWEET: Graduated last time out in a turf sprint and tries both winners and two turns for the first time. Her pedigree says that won’t be an issue, and the progression she’s made as a 4-year-old is encouraging.