bankroll

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/4/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $811.20

Saturday is Whitney Day, one of my favorite programs each Saratoga season. The feature has attracted plenty of handicap division heavyweights, including Life Is Good and Olympiad, and the rest of the card looks highly competitive.

I’ll be diving into the late Pick Five on the HHH Racing Podcast. We’ll stream live Thursday evening at 7:30 pm Eastern time, and you’ll be able to watch on the podcast’s YouTube channel.

These guys do a lot of work to put forth a strong product, and I’m flattered to have been asked to chime in. If you’re around Thursday night, join us!

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Most of my action was cancelled when Bezos and Regality scratched out of the finale. I was left with a single $3 cold exacta, which ran 1-3 when my runner-up lost a brutal photo for second money.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll play the late Pick Four and try to extract some value out of #5 ART COLLECTOR in the featured Alydar. My 50-cent ticket starts in the seventh and reads as follows: 1,3,6,7,8 with 5 with 1,7 with 1,2,4,7,8.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Art Collector, Race 8
Longshot: Fast Corey, Race 10

R1

Sicilian Grandma
Lady Quinn
Acqua Bella

#5 SICILIAN GRANDMA: Was bet to favoritism in her debut, and that race is a total throwout given the sloppy track at Ellis Park. She’d shown precocity in a few workouts ahead of that performance, and Mike Maker’s runners tend to improve with experience anyway; #1 LADY QUINN: Has worked well twice since coming up from Monmouth Park for a conditioner that merits plenty of respect. The rail isn’t an ideal draw, but perhaps she’s quick enough to overcome it; #3 ACQUA BELLA: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and may take money because of that, but I have my doubts. This $80,000 yearling purchase runs for $50,000 here, and if she’s a promising dirt horse, why was she worked on turf earlier this month, then sent down to Belmont?

R2

Personal Pursuit
Alluring Angel
Cowichan

#10 PERSONAL PURSUIT: Showed some speed in her debut on dirt at Churchill Downs and comes in off of a very strong turf drill over the Oklahoma track. This $500,000 auction buy has plenty of talent on both sides of her pedigree, and the experience edge she has over some of this field is a big plus; #4 ALLURING ANGEL: Has a pedigree that’s all-turf in every possible direction. Jorge Abreu has attracted Irad Ortiz, Jr., to ride this filly, one out of a dam that’s kin to European Group 2 winner I Can Fly; #5 COWICHAN: Has shown speed in two downstate starts but faltered as the 2/5 favorite last time out. The blinkers come off, and that’s a strong move from a barn that cannot be ignored in these races, but I need more of a price than I’m likely to get.

R3

W W Fitzy
Boston Post Road
Played Hard

#2 W W FITZY: Comes into this one off of a very strong race at Churchill Downs, where she sat a few lengths off the pace and won going away. With the exception of a race where she was eased, she hasn’t run a bad one since being claimed by Robertino Diodoro over the winter; #6 BOSTON POST ROAD: Comes in off of a third-place finish against stakes foes in the slop at Monmouth Park. That may have been a bounce off of a strong return to the races two back, when she dusted allowance foes at this distance at Belmont in her first start in 14 months; #3 PLAYED HARD: Has just one off-the-board finish in 10 career starts, and it came in last year’s Grade 1 Alabama against Malathaat and Clairiere. She nearly wired a decent group last time out in Kentucky and figures to be prominent from the jump here.

R4

Alpine Queen
Vallarand
Stormi Cat Lady

#6 ALPINE QUEEN: Goes first off the claim for a small barn that’s already found the winner’s circle at this stand and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., who likely had some options here. She’s got four top-two finishes in six starts at this distance, and the July 21st work here jumps off the page; #3 VALLARAND: Likely needed her 2022 debut earlier this meet, which probably came against a better group and was her first start since October. Her winning effort here last season was sharp, and a similar type of performance here would give her a big shot; #2 STORMI CAT LADY: Won big last time out against a lesser group and steps up in class for a barn that’s running very, very well right now. Jose Lezcano has seemed to click with her over her last three starts, and perhaps she’s figuring things out in her 4-year-old season.

R5

Sensible Jim
One More Baby
Mistical Curlin

#3 SENSIBLE JIM: Goes first off the claim for Joe Sharp and seems eligible to improve in a bottom-level maiden claiming race with many horses that seem like they’re being dumped. His best race came going two turns, he’s been working well up here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on or near the lead in a race with horses that don’t like passing others; #8 ONE MORE BABY: Had an excuse last time, when he didn’t break well and was much further back than he prefers. His runner-up finish two back was fine, and the horse he chased that day came right back to win at next asking; #2 MISTICAL CURLIN: Was fourth for a higher tag last time out in a race run out of the Wilson chute. He’s not without a chance in here, but while it looks like he was gaining late, they ran the last quarter-mile in more than 27 seconds that day, so that’s a bit deceptive.

R6

Fire King
New York Panther
Twirling Charlie

#5 FIRE KING: Goes long at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing to do. However, he’s in the hands of a trainer whose horses can do that, and his July 8th turf drill indicates he could have a lot of talent. Being by Belmont winner Palace Malice, I don’t think two turns will bother him much, either; #8 NEW YORK PANTHER: Rallied to run second going five furlongs downstate and has a right to improve stretching out to a route distance. His experience edge is a plus, and his pedigree indicates he’ll only get better with more ground; #9 TWIRLING CHARLIE: Was one-paced in his debut, which is the same race my second selection exits. This barn is aces with runners stretching out in distance, and a Parx-based rider comes north for just one mount. These connections did this last weekend with a 2-year-old that ran second.

R7

Short Summer Dress (MTO)
Mail Order
Bye Bye

#6 MAIL ORDER: Stepped forward in a big way last time out, when she cruised home to top allowance foes while earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure. Bill Mott’s runners tend to get better as they get older, and if another step forward third off the bench is in the offing, look out; #1 BYE BYE: Hasn’t won in a while and gets a tricky rail draw, but she’s run well twice downstate this season and was a close-up third in a stakes race at this route a season ago. There’s plenty of speed entered in this turf sprint, and nobody’s been riding these races better than Joel Rosario; #8 HIT THE WOAH: Hasn’t run in nearly six months but was a winner when last seen at Gulfstream Park. Her only other turf sprint to date was the Grade 3 Soaring Softly in 2021, where she was beaten less than two lengths by Bye Bye.

R8

Art Collector
Masqueparade
Mystic Night

#5 ART COLLECTOR: Makes his first start since a failed trip to the Middle East for the Saudi Cup and will look to win the Alydar for the second year in a row. He’s been working very strongly ahead of his return, and if he’s at anything close to his best, this race is for second money; #6 MASQUEPARADE: Was third in last year’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy behind Essential Quality, then went to the sidelines after a clunker in the Grade 1 Travers. His two outings at Churchill this season have been fine, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the favorite’s flank; #1 MYSTIC NIGHT: Is 2-for-2 this season and comes in with a consistent local work tab for Chad Brown. A repeat of his last-out performance at Keeneland would give him a puncher’s chance, but it’s fair to wonder if he’s too pace-dependent for this event, which doesn’t have much apparent zip signed on outside of the overwhelming favorite.

R9

Good Governance
Madaket entry
Atone

#7 GOOD GOVERNANCE: Hasn’t been out of the barn since February, but is a handful when he’s right and has placed in a pair of graced stakes races here over the years. I’ve taken stands against Brown trainees shipping up from Monmouth, but several of those have won coming off of long layoffs this summer, so perhaps it’s not as much of a red flag as it used to be; MADAKET ENTRY: Both have a shot, but I prefer #1 EMARAATY, who’s 2-for-3 here (including one of my eight wins the last Friday of last season). He ran well when second behind the talented Sifting Sands downstate, and 6-1 seems like far too big a price given what he’s capable of; #2 ATONE: Has run well in three graded stakes races and was second in the Grade 3 Forbidden Apple here just a few weeks ago. On talent, he fits, but the outside post is a concern, and while Dylan Davis is enjoying a breakthrough year, it’s worth wondering why Flavien Prat got off to ride Emaraaty.

R10

Miss Domina
Corms entry
Fast Corey

#7 MISS DOMINA: Was entered in a very tough spot off a long layoff last time out and ran like she needed the tightener. That day’s third-place finisher came back to win a stakes race earlier in the meet, and if this one’s back to her mid-2021 form, she could step forward and benefit from a closer-friendly race shape; CORMS ENTRY: Both #1 STUCK ON KITTEN and #1A MISPELLED MOOON fit here. The former goes second off the bench for a barn hitting at 26% this calendar year, while the latter graduated last time out and figures to be prominent early; #8 FAST COREY: Was a best bet of mine on opening day, when she took money against claimers, broke a bit slowly, and didn’t sit her desired trip. She was claimed that day, gets protected here, and has the zip to be the speed of the speed in this spot. Maybe that’s not enough to win, but I wouldn’t construct vertical exotics tickets without her involved.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (8/3/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $814.20

The calendar’s rolled over into August, and with it, we’re more than a third of the way through the Saratoga meet. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it every year: It’s a testament to the uniqueness of Saratoga that the meet seems to both fly by and be the ultimate handicapping grind at the same time.

We’re starting to see a few horses that ran very early in the meet entered in other races. Every year, there are some races that figure to be key ones and others that leave you scratching your head and wondering if any horse entered will ever win again. That information can prove very powerful for eagle-eyed, sharp-minded handicappers. Trust your gut, bet accordingly, and you’ll be at a considerable advantage compared to those who don’t.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: It wasn’t glamorous, but this section’s betting strategy did triple the odds of the most impressive 2-year-old we’ve seen at the meet. Prank went off at 1/2, but $30 worth of plays in this section returned $76 thanks to an overlaid double.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll wait until the finale. #11 CATHEDRAL BEACH takes a huge drop for a barn that’s due to get rolling, while #6 REGALITY is another dropper that may have found his friends and figures to be a price. I’ll key this pair on top of $3 exactas that use those two, #3 BEZOS, and #9 BRACIOLE in the second spot.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Rice entry, Race 5
Longshot: Regality, Race 10

R1

Going Country
Burn The Evidence
Howyabud

#3 GOING COUNTRY: Is one of three Keri Brion runners in this field, and this is the one that attracts the circuit’s top jump jock. He was favored in a Grade 2 two back and was way too far behind last time out. His best gives him a big shot; #7 BURN THE EVIDENCE: Was second behind Down Royal last time out, and that one came back to win the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick. She’s a consistent sort that’s been in the money every start since November of 2021; #5 HOWYABUD: Has won his two starts over fences by a combined total of 18 lengths and will probably go favored. That’s not totally without merit, but Hendriks rode last time and hops off, which is a legit question mark.

R2

Bond entry
Laughter
Ace Up Her Sleeve

BOND ENTRY: I prefer #1A GLITTERING PRIZE, who sure seems like the lone speed and attracts top gate rider Luis Saez. I don’t think she’ll have much competition early, and she could prove tough to run down if she gets comfortable; #2 LAUGHTER: Has improved with all three starts and comes in off of a four-furlong bullet drill last week. This barn’s numbers aren’t great this season, but a repeat of the last-out effort on turf probably gets this one a piece of it; #4 ACE UP HER SLEEVE: Hasn’t raced in nearly a year but has been working steadily ahead of her 3-year-old debut. This barn can win with both droppers and second-out maidens, and she doesn’t have to be much to put forth a good account of herself against what sure looks like one of the weaker fields we’ll see at this level.

R3

Leddy
Never Early
Achilles Heel

#6 LEDDY: Merits a tepid top pick in a confusing race with many class-droppers. He’s one, and he gets Lasix ahead of his 2022 debut. His maiden-breaking effort last November was very sharp, and the Asmussen camp must’ve seen something encouraging to ship him up from Ellis Park; #5 NEVER EARLY: Was once a speedball but has gained an ability to rate that could prove helpful. His stalk-and-pounce trip two back was a winning one, and he may sit a similar journey in this event, which seems full of early zip; #7 ACHILLES HEEL: Hasn’t won in quite a while, but that lone win came over this very track almost a year ago. He’s a bit slow on figures, but he also seems like this race’s lone true closer, which could work in his favor.

R4

Chaysenbryn (MTO)
Charge Account
War Canoe

#6 CHARGE ACCOUNT: Returned to the lawn last time out and ran well despite rating in a race without much early speed and running very wide turning for home. Castellano and Morley have been a very strong tag team to this point in the met, and the return to a two-turn route should help him; #3 WAR CANOE: Is an easy mare to root for and makes her 52nd lifetime start here. She exits the same race as my top pick, may have moved a bit too early that day, and doesn’t have to improve much in order to record her 11th lifetime win; #5 GOLDEN VOICE: Won two in a row this spring before throwing in a clunker as a 6/5 favorite at Horseshoe Indiana last time out. She’s now 0-for-3 over that surface, though, so perhaps it’s an easy race to toss, and this technically represents a drop in class.

R5

Rice entry
Triumphant Road
Sosua Summer

#1 JAVA BUZZ: Showed class last year when chasing several nice horses and came back running in his 3-year-old debut. He was beaten a half-length that day despite a slow start, has every right to improve second off the bench, and should get plenty of pace to run at; #4 TRIUMPHANT ROAD: Comes in off a very long layoff but is bred to love the turf. His dam is a multiple graded stakes winner on turf, and this one ran into a very well-meant horse in his debut that wound up being a pretty serious sprinter; #5 SOSUA SUMMER: Has shown a lot of early speed in his career and should be prominent early. He’s also, however, shown a propensity to fade when the real running starts. On speed figures, he fits, but it’s fair to demand more value than we’ll probably get.

R6

Lady Quinn (MTO)
Smokie Eyes
Collaboration

#7 SMOKIE EYES: Hammered for $160,000 last summer across the street and is bred to be a strong turf horse. Her dam was Grade 3-placed on the grass, and her second dam, a multiple stakes-winning turfer herself, threw Grade 3-winning turf runner Emotional Kitten; #3 COLLABORATION: Is by English Channel and out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, which means this two-turn turf route should fit her like a glove. Both of her siblings to race are winners, and her dam is kin to Grade 3-winning mare Genre; #6 SWEETEST PRINCESS: Is another filly with some class to her bottom-side pedigree. Dam Sweet Cause is kin to several strong runners, including Grade 3-placed Stormy Sky, and third dam Sweet Eloise threw an impressive 12 winners (including stakes types Don Dulce and Secret Passage).

R7

Tiergan
Blewitt
Troubleshooter

#3 TIERGAN: Seems likely to sit a dream trip just behind several early speed horses in this race out of the Wilson chute. Unlike those rivals, he doesn’t need the lead to run well, but he shouldn’t be too far back and may have ideal positioning turning for home; #6 BLEWITT: Has been around the circuit a long time and returns off a three-month break for this event. He ran away with the Stud Muffin two starts ago, but it’s worth noting his lone local win came going longer than this distance, and with a perfect trip to boot; #4 TROUBLESHOOTER: Has turned into a pace-dependent type, but he should get plenty of that here. This is the third start of his form cycle, and it’s encouraging to see Luis Saez ride back when he may have had some options.

R8

Buckingham Prince
Must Be Love
Swift Tap

#3 BUCKINGHAM PRINCE: Ships in after running a good second in a race at this level and distance at Churchill Downs, and shippers from that venue have been running well here. His lone local start was a second last summer, one that aged well considering that day’s winner, Stolen Base, has turned into a stakes-winner; #2 MUST BE LOVE: Goes first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, whose barn is firing to this point in the meet. He does strong work with new acquisitions, and Joel Rosario landing here cannot be ignored, especially at this one’s likely price; #9 SWIFT TAP: Hasn’t won since breaking his maiden almost a year ago but makes his first start for Rob Atras, who’s as good as it gets first off the claim. He’s another coming in from Churchill Downs, and his races at this level have been very competitive.

R9

Brown entry
Played Hard (MTO)
Poca Mocha

BROWN ENTRY: Both #1 ROCKY SKY and #1A AMERICAN BRIDGE can win this optional claiming event. They’re both stakes types getting significant class relief, and I anticipate this entry being the shortest-priced betting interest on the entire card (and a popular single in the multi-race exotics); #4 POCA MOCHA: Made an early move last time in a decent race for the level and should benefit from this two-turn configuration. Prat hops off to ride Rocky Sky, but Joel Rosario climbs aboard, and he rode her to a good second at Keeneland this past spring; #6 BRAMBLE BAY: Merits a look underneath at a pretty nice price. She won a state-bred stakes race at Monmouth last month, and her recent record looks a bit better if you toss her two and three-back efforts on dirt.

R10

Cathedral Beach
Regality
Bezos

#11 CATHEDRAL BEACH: Takes a gigantic class drop from optional claimers to this non-winners-of-two event and draws favorably for an outfit that’s better than its 1-for-16 start to the meet. He’s been training well at Belmont, retains regular pilot Manny Franco, and looms large in the Wednesday finale; #6 REGALITY: Hasn’t won since May of 2021, but goes second off the bench for a capable barn and comes back to what’s probably the right level. He had every right to need his last effort, his first start since November, and this apprentice rider has been putting horses in the right spots this summer; #3 BEZOS: Is a star-crossed runner entered for his lowest tag ever after hammering for $400,000 as a yearling. That said, his races two and three back against far better starter allowance foes weren’t bad, and he figures to be prominent early in a race that doesn’t seem heavy on gate speed.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/31/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $768.20

We saw something really special Saturday in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt. Jackie’s Warrior ran his local record to 5-for-5, a mark that includes an unprecedented run of Grade 1 victories in three straight seasons.

Longevity isn’t valued in racing anymore. Horses run fewer times, over shorter spans, and are whisked to the breeding shed much faster (often leaving fans wondering just how good they really were). Seeing horses keep running at the game’s highest level is inspiring, and those horses make it easy to be a fan.

I posted this question to Twitter, and it’s worth asking here, too: Which streak is more impressive, this one or Fourstardave’s run of eight straight years with a win at Saratoga? Right now, it’s probably the latter. However, if Jackie’s Warrior somehow stays in training as a 5-year-old and runs that streak to four years, I think it’s a very, very legitimate question.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: The whole “ran great, second-best” thing leaves a lot to be desired. First-race single Tatum didn’t run poorly (far from it), but him not winning meant my $30 of tickets turned into confetti.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I can’t wait to see #5 PRANK run in the sixth. I think she’s exceptionally well-meant, and I’ll key her a few different ways. She’s a single to finish $10 doubles that start with #6 CAPITAL STRUCTURE and #9 BABY BLYTHE in the fifth, and I’ll also punch a cold $10 exacta using Prank atop #6 HIGH CLASS.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Prank, Race 6
Longshot: Guajira, Race 3

R1

Truancy
Voleuse
Photon

#2 TRUANCY: Ran well at first asking for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race or two to get going. She split a pair of next-out winners, and her two local works since that unveiling were very, very fast; #1 VOLEUSE: Benefited from a race that fell apart from a pace perspective in her dirt debut. She did show improvement to run second that day despite an awkward start, and Joel Rosario rides back for Christophe Clement; #6 PHOTON: Passed tired ones in her debut, which is the same race my second selection exits. A recent bullet drill indicates she’s moving forward, though, and she has every right to improve in her second career start.

R2

Ticker Tape Home
Free Look
Callie’s Grit

#8 TICKER TAPE HOME: Did everything but win in her debut at Woodbine, where she may have moved just a bit early when beaten a half-length. That previous run gives her an experience edge over most of this field, one that could prove very valuable; #10 FREE LOOK: Hammered for $300,000 at Keeneland last year, and for good reason. She’s by Tapit and out of a full sister to Grade 1 winner and strong sire Violence. The outside post is far from ideal, but she’s got every right to be a runner; #9 CALLIE’S GRIT: Carries a heck of a story behind the name and has several works that suggest she’s got some talent. She’s also got a ton of turf pedigree, especially on the bottom side, and 12-1 hits me as way too big a price.

R3

Let’s Be Clear
Guajira
Knowing Glance

#2 LET’S BE CLEAR: Goes first off the claim for Linda Rice and returns to a track where she ran well twice a season ago. She’s also excelled at this seven-furlong route, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #7 GUAJIRA: Has been off since January and returns while protected from the claim by a very astute barn. I love when barns do that. It hints at confidence, which can also be inspired by a pair of very sharp local drills ahead of this one’s return; #3 KNOWING GLANCE: Isn’t the most consistent runner, but her best is good enough to make her a player here. The question is, which filly do we get? The one that ran well at this level last time out has a shot. The one that seemed to tail off over the winter does not.

R4

Street Tsar
Tap’n de Bank
Daufuskie Island

#5 STREET TSAR: Won at first asking after prevailing in a duel with another runner many, many lengths ahead of the rest of the field. That runner-up ran a decent second a few days ago, and a logical move forward would make this Todd Pletcher trainee tough to beat; #7 TAP’N DE BANK: Was beaten just a neck in his first start against winners downstate. Like many others in this field, he’s got plenty of early speed, and he and John Velazquez figure to be prominent from a very early stage; #6 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND: Comes back to state-bred competition after topping starter allowance foes a few weeks ago. He’s placed in four stakes races, so he’s got plenty of back class, and his very first start was a win by open lengths here last summer.

R5

Baby Blythe
Capital Structure
Ice Princess

#9 BABY BLYTHE: Has had some issues the past few years but is a real handful when she’s healthy. Her win here last year was sensational, and she may be ready to fire another big shot third off the bench going a marathon distance she’s bred to love; #6 CAPITAL STRUCTURE: Had an adventurous journey in her return to the races off a long layoff, where she ran into trouble multiple times and was fourth as an even-money favorite. Smooth sailing would make her a major player here, though it’s fair to wonder if this distance is what she wants; #3 ICE PRINCESS: Has been working well ahead of her first start since April, and while she’s 0-for-2 on turf, she did run second in a state-bred stakes race on the lawn last fall. She should love this distance given her pedigree, and the versatility she’s shown throughout her career is a big plus.

R6

Prank
High Class
Check Engine Light

#5 PRANK: May be the best-bred 2-year-old on the grounds right now. She’s a half-sister to Belmont and Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal, sold for $500,000 last year at Keeneland, and has been working up a storm for Todd Pletcher ahead of a highly-anticipated debut; #6 HIGH CLASS: Boasts a work pattern I really like coming into her first start. When the second-back work of a Steve Asmussen trainee is fast, and the more recent work is a maintenance drill, it’s often a sign that the horse is well-meant; #2 CHECK ENGINE LIGHT: Comes into this one off of a bullet drill over the Oklahoma track and attracts Flavien Prat. The rail draw isn’t ideal for a first-time starter, but it’s also possible he’s quick enough to negate any possible roadblocks.

R7

Intrepid Heart (MTO)
Flop Shot
Soldier Rising

#10 FLOP SHOT: Finally recorded his first stateside win last time out and has been freshened up ahead of this event. He’s run well fresh in the past, though, and his back class jumps off the page. Anything close to his early-2022 form would make him a formidable foe; #5 SOLDIER RISING: Is a consistent sort that seems to run the same race every time out. A few weeks ago, that was good enough to finish second behind Channel Maker in a listed stakes race. He was second in last year’s Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, and he doesn’t seem as pace-dependent now as he was then; #3 SANCTUARY CITY: Hasn’t won in quite a while but gets significant class relief after three straight stakes tries. He was a good second going a bit longer back in May, which doubled as the last time he was eligible for Lasix. The Lasix comes back here, and he could move forward at a price.

R8

Arklow
Highland Chief
L’Imperator

#2 ARKLOW: Runs well fresh and should be well-rested for his first start in almost 10 months in the Grade 2 Bowling Green. This classy 8-year-old has banked nearly $3 million in career earnings, has been training forwardly for Brad Cox, and looks like the one to beat; #3 HIGHLAND CHIEF: Pulled off a 19-1 upset two starts back in the Grade 1 Man o’ War before running fourth in the Grade 1 Manhattan. This barn’s success with turf marathoners is well-known, and when horses like that from this outfit get on the right track, they tend to stay there; #1 L’IMPERATOR: Looks like the possible lone speed in here, and a similar trip got him the money in the Grade 2 Fort Marcy back in May. The inside draw may force Manny Franco’s hand, and if he gets brave, he could lead them a long way.

R9

Corniche
Pappacap
Pinehurst

#7 CORNICHE: Returns off of a long layoff and makes his first start for new trainer Todd Pletcher. Last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male has been working steadily leading up to the Grade 2 Amsterdam, and if he’s moved forward off of that campaign where he never trailed at any point of call, look out; #4 PAPPACAP: Has done nothing wrong since cutting back to one turn other than run into two freakish performances from Jack Christopher. He gets another tough opponent here, but he’s found a home going shorter after spending time on the Kentucky Derby trail; #1 PINEHURST: Makes his first start since a two-race expedition to the Middle East. One of those tries was a win in a rich Saudi Arabia event, and his resume also features a win in last year’s Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. If the recent local work is any indication, he’s ready to run.

R10

Gimmebackmybullets (MTO)
Sharp Sensation
Majestic Johnson

#7 SHARP SENSATION: Makes the most sense to me in a wide-open finale. He comes back to the right level after finishing sixth against straight maidens last time out, and he actually crossed the wire first in a similar race at Aqueduct back in April; #6 MAJESTIC JOHNSON: Debuted with an eventful trip a few weeks ago and has every right to improve for a barn whose runners tend to do so with a start or two under their belts. The connections might’ve pulled a fast one getting this name approved, and it’s not inconceivable to think they could be celebrating after the Sunday nightcap; #5 MARTINEZ: Has had a lot of chances and has been a beaten favorite in three of four starts this year. He was second in a race many of these exit, and while he fits on figures, it’s fair to wonder if he’s an owner’s dream (collecting checks) and a bettor’s nightmare (never winning).

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/30/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $798.20

If you’ve read my work for the past few years, you know my girlfriend is an elementary school teacher. She’s preparing to go back for the start of the academic year in a few weeks (they start earlier out here), and is doing everything she can to make her public school, fifth-grade classroom the best learning environment it can be.

In that vein, she’s set up a drive to raise money to purchase supplies rooted in STEAM concepts (science, technology, engineering, arts, and math). Times are tough for a lot of people right now, but if you’re out there looking for a worthy cause to support, I can assure you this checks that box.

Click here if you want to learn more or are interested in donating. Let’s help a bunch of fifth-graders learn by doing!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: I took a shot against an 8/5 favorite in the fifth race, one that backfired when it won as clearly the best horse. I dropped $30.

SATURDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card, and I sincerely hope we get the 5-1 morning line price on #3 TATUM in the opener. I’ll have a $15 win bet, and I’ll single him in $5 doubles ending with #6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE, #7 MONTEPULCIANO, and #8 DECCAN PRINCE in the second.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Jackie’s Warrior, Race 8
Longshot: Big Bobby, Race 5

R1

Tatum
Swiss Guard
Capture the Flag

#3 TATUM: Is the only horse in this field with a start, and it was a good one. He missed by a nose at Parx, has fired a bullet drill since then, and attracts his rider from Philadelphia to come north to Saratoga for just one mount; #2 SWISS GUARD: Has a few solid gate drills for Steve Asmussen and is bred to be a good one. He’s a son of American Pharoah, and his dam is a half to Grade 1-placed runner Holiday Soiree; #5 CAPTURE THE FLAG: Is bred very, very well and has worked consistently for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey ahead of his debut. However, the fantastic pedigree also says he probably wants turf, so there’s a chance this is a tightener for another race down the line.

R2

C’Est Magnifique
Deccan Prince
Montepulciano

#6 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE: Looks like another well-meant first-time starter from the Chad Brown barn and will likely be bet accordingly. This son of Kitten’s Joy is out of a Grade 3-placed mare, one who’s kin to multiple stakes-winner Royal Son; #8 DECCAN PRINCE: Debuted with an OK third in a turf sprint downstate and stretches out at second asking. Blinkers go on, he’s posted a recent bullet drill, and the pedigree says the added distance shouldn’t be a problem; #7 MONTEPULCIANO: Hammered for $210,000 last September at Keeneland and debuts for Todd Pletcher. The recent seven-furlong drill over the Oklahoma turf course is noteworthy, as is the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., who landed here when he likely had a few options.

R3

Wolfe County
Endowed
Bold Victory

#9 WOLFE COUNTY: Has run well twice since moving to the Ken McPeek barn and broke his maiden going a bit longer last time out. Prior to that, he just missed by a head behind one who came back to win again, and I think he’s turned a corner and sitting on another nice outing; #8 ENDOWED: Has stepped forward with every start and was second last time out in his first try against winners. This is his first two-turn try, but this son of Belmont winner Tonalist may still have room to improve in just his fourth career outing; #7 BOLD VICTORY: Has won twice this season and returns to a two-turn route of ground for this one. He’s performed well over such configurations in the past, even running fourth in a $400,000 stakes race back in 2020.

R4

Doozy Batz (MTO)
Devilly
Diamant Damhsa

#8 DEVILLY: Is probably in a “now or never” situation, going back to the maiden claiming ranks in search of her first career win in her 11th career outing. She’s been competitive against better groups and looms large on speed figures, though, and she seems like the class of this bunch; #5 DIAMANT DAMHSA: Enjoyed a perfect trip when third going seven furlongs downstate and cuts back a bit for this event. She’s got the early speed to be prominent early, and perhaps she’s getting better with experience for one of the top trainers in the game; #11 SPARKLING WATER: Gets back to the turf for the first time since her debut and merits a look at a bonkers price. She’s by Get Stormy, out of a War Front mare, and boasts a 354 turf Tomlinson rating, the second-best such number in the field.

R5

Bank On Shea
Amundson
Big Bobby

#1 BANK ON SHEA: Has won several stakes races and gets a bit of class relief in this optional claiming event. His prior connections saw fit to try the Grade 1 Carter earlier in the year, and a return to that early-2022 form would make him the one to beat, even from a tricky inside post; #4 AMUNDSON: Won here a season ago and would certainly move forward on a wet track. However, that’s not a requirement for him to run well. He exits several strong races for the level, and he could sit an ideal stalking trip; #7 BIG BOBBY: Has every right to improve second off a long layoff, and his 2021 form was quite strong. That season included a pair of second-place finishes over this track, and his record looks far better if you toss the races directly before and after the five-month break.

R6

Marvelous Maude
Blissful
Wicked Groove

#1 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Has never finished out of the money in seven career starts and makes a lot of sense here. Her last-out score against state-breds at Belmont was sharp, and while this is probably a tougher group, she should have plenty of pace to run at; #5 BLISSFUL: Faced a tall task in her first try off a long layoff and had too much to do in a race without much early zip. Still, she was beaten less than two lengths in a stakes race, and she looked good when winning here at first asking last summer; #6 WICKED GROOVE: Goes to the Rob Atras barn second off the layoff, and it’s intriguing to see Flavien Prat aboard. She’s run very well going two turns on turf, and her eight turf starts include four wins and seven top-three finishes.

R7

Tommy Gun (MTO)
Mister Chairman
Built to Last

#5 MISTER CHAIRMAN: Was a fast-closing second in his debut, which came against maiden claimers. This barn protects him here, though, and with the amount of speed horses signed on, this late-runner stands to benefit from the likely race shape; #1 BUILT TO LAST: Was clear by three lengths in mid-stretch last time out before finishing third behind a next-out winner. The cutback in distance could suit him, and he has the early speed to make the rail draw an asset; #4 FEATHERS ROAD: Has been a consistent check-getter at this level and figures to take plenty of betting money. However, he’s got a history of finding trouble, and it’s tough for me to endorse those runners at short prices. Given his likely odds, I’ll try to beat him.

R8

Jackie’s Warrior
Willy Boi
Ny Traffic

#4 JACKIE’S WARRIOR: Has done plenty to earn the mantle of America’s top sprinter and looms large in the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt. Four of his 11 wins have come here at Saratoga, including a huge one over Life Is Good in last year’s Grade 1 Allen Jerkens. Anything close to his best would make for quite a show here; #2 WILLY BOI: Is 3-for-3 since a trainer switch, and one of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream Park. It’s possible he’s a “horse for the course,” but if his form travels north with him, he could rally for a piece of it; #3 NY TRAFFIC: Comes in off of a pair of scores in listed stakes races, and his lone loss this season came to Speaker’s Corner in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile. His local works are sharp, and he’s certainly found life as a sprinter after contesting Triple Crown races in 2020.

R9

Epicenter
Early Voting
Zandon

#2 EPICENTER: Did everything but win the Kentucky Derby and rallied for second in the Preakness despite a slow start. This short field should provide no such obstacles. I expect him to sit his preferred trip, and I think that journey will make him tough in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy; #4 EARLY VOTING: Got the trip in the Preakness and had enough left late to hold off Epicenter, which isn’t easy to do. His lone loss to date came to eventual Belmont winner Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, and further improvement could allow him to keep rolling; #5 ZANDON: Won the Grade 1 Blue Grass and looked like a possible winner turning for home in the Derby. However, he never got past Epicenter, and while he’s a definite Travers contender later in the season, I’m concerned he won’t get the pace he may want here given the short field and lack of early zip.

R10

Capensis
Three Jokers (MTO)
Ricochet

#12 CAPENSIS: Hammered for $2 million in 2020 and looked every bit of that price when he stormed home clear by five lengths in his debut earlier this month. This is his first try against winners, and the post position isn’t ideal, but there’s reason to believe he’s simply a freak and much better than this bunch; #8 RICOCHET: Does his best running around two turns and came home a winner downstate against starter allowance company. Mike Maker’s barn is doing very well to this point in the meet, and this one’s versatility should give Luis Saez some options; #10 COLOSSEO: Makes his American debut and gets Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. He got very good last season, when he was second behind the ultra-talented St. Mark’s Basilica in one Group 1 race and chased eventual Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues home in another.

R11

Big Agenda
Monarchs Glen
Jack the Cat

#3 BIG AGENDA: Has won twice this year, including a two-back event at this level downstate, and earns a tepid nod in a wide-open turf race. He’s won seven times in 33 races, with 20 in-the-money finishes, and he’s a consistent sort that always seems to run the same race; #16 MONARCHS GLEN: Needs a lot of luck to run here but is a must-use if he does. He hasn’t won in quite a while, but most of his races have come against far classier opponents, and that may be enough to carry him through despite a very wide post; #7 JACK THE CAT: Has proven to be very sharp at this level and goes first off the claim for a barn that excels with new acquisitions. The rider switch to Joel Rosario is a big one, and the faster they go early, the better this one’s chances figure to be.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/29/22)

Posted on by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $828.20

I’m a proud voter for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, and I’m always happy to spread the word about fun events happening at that establishment. One of those is coming up on Monday, when Amplify Horse Racing and Together for Racing International team up to host an educational symposium.

It’s a free event kicking off at 5:30 pm. If you go, you can expect to learn a lot about opportunities within the racing industry and how horse racing and the Saratoga Springs community can work together for the benefit of all involved. If I still lived in the area, I’d be there!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: In this section, it was a day of body blows. Boldish scratching ruined my entire rationale for these wagers, and while my top pick in that race won, running second in the surrounding races meant $32 in wagers went up in smoke.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the fifth, where bigger prices make up my entire top three. I’ll box #3 STREAMING TAP, #4 MAD MAGIC, and #7 SEBARAY in $2 exactas, and I’ll use all three in $3 doubles that finish with #7 ACOUSTIC AVE and #10 BOBBY THE TANK in the sixth.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Creative Minister, Race 7
Longshot: Sebaray, Race 5

R1

Golden Alchemist
Sidekick
Southern Flag

#2 GOLDEN ALCHEMIST: Debuted with a decent second downstate and stretches out to two turns at second asking. His pedigree says he’ll fit this trip, and Flavien Prat winds up here when he had at least one other option; #5 SIDEKICK: Improved in his second start when second going a mile at Belmont. This is his first time going two turns, as well, and his recent drills over the Oklahoma track indicate he’s thriving at the Spa; #7 SOUTHERN FLAG: Almost certainly needed his last-out effort, which doubled as his first start in nearly a year. His 2021 form wasn’t bad, and it’s logical to expect a step forward second off the bench.

R2

Media Sensation
Lookin Grand
Sell Something

#5 MEDIA SENSATION: Gets back to facing state-bred competition after running a close-up second a few weeks ago at Belmont despite jockey Manny Franco losing an iron at the break. This doesn’t hit me as the strongest race for the level, and Franco sees fit to ride back; #7 LOOKIN GRAND: Made a big middle move last time in his first start at this level. That was a strangely-run race, and this one is lightly-raced enough to where further improvement could still be in the cards; #4 SELL SOMETHING: Has a tendency to find trouble that’s…well, troubling, but his last-out effort was his first turf route, and it was easily his best race yet. Perhaps he’s doing what he wants to do, and that could make him dangerous at a price.

R3

Fingal’s Cave
Insignia
Spiked

#3 FINGAL’S CAVE: Has done absolutely nothing wrong in two career starts, with a pair of wins by a combined margin of 17 1/2 lengths. This is her first try going two turns, but her route-heavy pedigree indicates that won’t be a problem, and the local drills are very sharp; #7 INSIGNIA: Benefited from a race that fell apart last time out at Churchill Downs and tries winners for the first time. Brad Cox’s horses are almost always live, and if nothing else, we know the two-turn route won’t be what gets her beat; #6 SPIKED: Won her first start on this circuit despite dueling throughout, which is far from an easy thing to do. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, and there are pedigree questions as far as this route is concerned, but the grit she’s shown is a real plus.

R4

Tellaperfecttale (MTO)
Happy Hill Lil
Laoban’s Legacy

#11 HAPPY HILL LIL: Draws an absolutely terrible post but seems likely to get an ideal setup in front of her. She’s a closer in a turf sprint with plenty of early speed, and she sports a win at this route of ground from the 12-hole, so we know this is something she can do; #5 LAOBAN’S LEGACY: Makes her first career start on turf but has a pedigree that says she might like it. Her dam is kin to Grade 2-winning turfer Storm Mesa, and the recent turf drills over the Oklahoma track jump off the page. At her likely price, she hits me as a must-use; #4 BLAME IT ON MARY: Hasn’t won in quite a while but has been competitive at this level of late. Most recently, she was second against similar downstate, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip that gives her first run turning for home.

R5

Sebaray
Mad Magic
Streaming Tap

#7 SEBARAY: Has a pedigree crying out for turf, and he finally gets it here. He’s a half to a pair of graded stakes-caliber turf runners, and his first start for Ray Handal was easily the best race of his career. Further improvement gives this gelding a big shot at a big price; #4 MAD MAGIC: Goes first off the claim for Ian Wilkes, who doesn’t claim many horses, and is another trying a new surface he should handle with aplomb. His dam is kin to Grade 1-placed turf runner Globetrotter and stakes-winning turf sprinter Slew’s Exchange. Turf was clearly the plan, and he’s worth using; #3 STREAMING TAP: Stretches out to two turns in his second start off of a brief freshening. He’s run decent races going long in the past, this barn is white-hot at the moment, and he’s another that will be a big price in a race with several favorites that hit me as vulnerable ones.

R6

Acoustic Ave
Bobby the Tank
With Know Name

#7 ACOUSTIC AVE: Hammered for $200,000 earlier this year and comes in off a pair of very fast half-mile works. Offspring of Maclean’s Music tend to be precocious, the draw in the outer half of the field should help, and I think there’s plenty of potential here; #10 BOBBY THE TANK: Has been working steadily here for Chad Brown following a $65,000 purchase earlier this year. A few of those drills stack up favorably with others in this field, and anything this barn sends out is worth a long look; #2 WITH KNOW NAME: Debuts for Mike Maker, whose outfit is firing on all cylinders this summer. Maker’s not known for success with debuting runners, but several works hint at some talent and this one has precocity on both sides of his pedigree.

R7

Creative Minister
Be Better
Artorius

#7 CREATIVE MINISTER: Was third in the Grade 1 Preakness before running a one-paced fifth in the Grade 1 Belmont, and it’s a long distance between the likes of Mo Donegal and Early Voting and this bunch. I think he’d have stood a chance in the Jim Dandy this weekend, and that his usual race would make him an extremely formidable chalk in the Curlin; #8 BE BETTER: Has moved forward in every start and is 2-for-2 this season at Monmouth Park. Todd Pletcher brings him up from New Jersey for this event, and he’s enlisted Luis Saez to ride; #9 ARTORIUS: Jumps up in class after topping a field of maidens downstate. This son of Arrogate and Paulassilverlining can’t be bred much better, and he’s got some gaudy speed figures, but he’s got something to prove in his first start against winners and first time going two turns.

R8

Mexican Wonder Boy (MTO)
Fauci
Xy Speed

#4 FAUCI: Is one of many in here that hasn’t won in a while, but he’s been tackling some very stiff competition. Most recently, he was second behind the ultra-consistent Artemus Citylimits, and he was a close second to Arrest Me Red in a minor stakes race at this route last summer; #2 XY SPEED: Was beaten two lengths in a minor stakes race last time out, and his only non-stakes outing to this point in 2022 doubles as his lone win of the year. This is another closer getting some class relief, and he’ll likely be a square price; #6 DANCING BUCK: Sat a picture-perfect trip to win a seven-furlong event last time out, and he cuts back in distance here while rising up the class ladder. It helps that he’s shown some versatility, and the continued presence of Joel Rosario doesn’t hurt, either.

R9

On the Hill
Baltasar
Dark Timber

#5 ON THE HILL: Hasn’t finished outside the top two yet this season and gets a monstrous rider switch to Luis Saez for this event. In each of his last two starts, he’s run second while well clear of the third-place finisher. He may not have to move forward at all to win this, and I think he could run a career-best race; #9 BALTASAR: Cuts back a bit after being reeled in last time out. Manny Franco knows this gelding well, having ridden him in all four 2022 outings, and he has the early speed to be prominent from a very early juncture; #7 DARK TIMBER: Hasn’t won since March of 2021, but his two-back effort at Churchill was sharp and his last-out turf try is a complete throw-out. He’s been competitive at this level and is doing what he wants, which may make the 12-1 morning line price an overlay.

R10

Maybe Later (MTO)
Stella Mars
More Mango

#6 STELLA MARS: Stretches out to two turns and ran OK in her lone prior two-turn turf try last November at Aqueduct. She generally runs the same race every time out, and such an effort would put her right there in a wide-open finale; #5 MORE MANGO: Has run well going long on turf multiple times, and this smaller barn has landed Luis Saez here. She sports a win at a similar route from the 2020 season, and it’s not illogical to think the new pilot may get the best effort out of her; #12 MIA AT MIDNIGHT: Draws a terrible post in her local debut but ran a pair of decent races at Santa Anita earlier this year. Peter Walder can win with new acquisitions, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride, which indicates this invader may have a chance in a puzzling Friday nightcap.