bankroll | Andrew Champagne

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/28/22)

Posted on July 26, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $860.20

Friday’s Curlin Stakes attracted a field of nine 3-year-olds. It’s a fun race, which is why I don’t like pointing out the benefits to changing it.

By contrast to the Curlin, Saturday’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy, the local prep for the Travers, is set to attract a significantly smaller group. Even with the presence of Epicenter, Early Voting, and Zandon, Creative Minister, the 2-1 favorite for the Curlin, would take some money in the bigger event. I want big fields in big races, and the Curlin doesn’t help with that.

My solution: How about we move the Curlin to Travers Day? I’d rather lose 30-1 shots from that race than lose 8-1 shots from the Jim Dandy. Small fields aren’t what anyone wants, and this fix would maximize an important race while also keeping the Curlin on the calendar.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: Disarmed had an absolutely terrible trip in the third, and it was pretty miraculous that he even salvaged a fourth-place finish. Lots of betting money went up in smoke, my $30 included.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the early part of the card and take a stand against the favorite in the third race. #3 BOLDISH hits me as vulnerable, and I prefer both #5 QUICK RETURN and #6 SARATOGA PAL. I’ll use those two in $2 doubles starting in the second with #3 SOUFFLE, #6 SNOWY EVENING, and #7 SHOWEMYOURHEELS, and in $2 doubles ending in the fourth with #6 OCEAN’S RESERVE and #8 DEVIL BOY. Finally, I’ll play a $1 Pick Three starting in the second that uses all of these runners.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Inventing, Race 1
Longshot: Lord Gatling, Race 10

Inventing
Forever After All
Aunt Naughty

#4 INVENTING: Tries two turns for the first time after trailing a short field in the Grade 1 Acorn. Prior to that effort, she was second against solid groups, and her pedigree says she’ll take to two turns like a duck to water in the Thursday opener; #2 FOREVER AFTER ALL: Stepped forward when second at second asking going longer at Churchill Downs. She was 40-1 that day, and we won’t get anywhere close to that price here, as that 82 Beyer Speed Figure is tied for the best last-out number in the field; #5 AUNT NAUGHTY: Gets back to two turns after a pair of one-turn mile events downstate. She’s another bred for this route, and an effort similar to her runs elsewhere on the circuit would likely get her a piece of this one.

Souffle
Snowy Evening
Showemyourheels

#3 SOUFFLE: Is out of a stakes-winning turf sprinter who has already thrown Derrynane, another stakes-winning turf sprinter. She’s been working very well for Christophe Clement, and first-call rider Joel Rosario will be aboard; #6 SNOWY EVENING: Debuted with a strong second at Belmont and was nearly four lengths clear of that day’s third-place finisher. She was close to a pretty slow pace that day and may need to improve here, but her experience edge over many of these isn’t a small advantage; #7 SHOWEMYOURHEELS: Hammered for $350,000 at auction last summer and is out of a mare that won stakes races on dirt and turf. She’s worked well and should be forwardly-placed beneath aggressive gate rider Kendrick Carmouche.

Quick Return
Saratoga Pal
Boldish

#5 QUICK RETURN: Drops to the bottom first off the claim for a small barn that’s pretty strong with new acquisitions. His two local sprints last summer were pretty sharp, and these shallower waters should be to his liking; #6 SARATOGA PAL: May have needed his return off of a four-month layoff and returns to a track where he’s won twice in three tries. Perhaps he’s over the top as a 5-year-old, but anything close to his form from last summer and fall would give him a big shot; #3 BOLDISH: Returns off a six-month break and drops way down in class. Perhaps he’s just better than this bunch, but this barn struggles with horses coming off of long breaks. At his likely price, I’ll try to beat him.

Ocean’s Reserve
Devil Boy
Sinful Dancer

#6 OCEAN’S RESERVE: Has just missed twice in a row at this level and seems like the one to beat here. He’s fairly lightly-raced and may have more room to improve here in what’s just his fifth lifetime start; #8 DEVIL BOY: Has had some gate issues but draws an outside post that could make it easier for him to break cleanly. Toss his two-back clunker off the long break, and the record of this Jeremiah Englehart trainee looks far better; #2 SINFUL DANCER: Has had a bunch of chances and may simply be a pack animal at this point, but the addition of blinkers could wake him up. George Weaver excels with this move, and he’s earned speed figures in the past that would make him competitive here.

Fearless
Lone Rock
Portos

#1 FEARLESS: Stretched out with aplomb to win the Grade 2 Brooklyn on the Belmont Stakes Day undercard. He’s yet to finish out of the top two in five starts this season, and two of those outings were losses to top miler Speaker’s Corner; #2 LONE ROCK: Won this race a season ago and has accomplished a lot running at marathon distances. He didn’t break well in the Brooklyn and settled for third that day. Perhaps a smoother start will give him a chance to turn the tables; #4 PORTOS: Ran fourth in the Brooklyn behind my top two. He hasn’t won in a while, but he’s run reasonably well going long and someone has to run third in here.

Afilada (MTO)
Birthday Time
Brisky Frolic

#3 BIRTHDAY TIME: Rated in an event without much early speed last time out and should benefit from a return to a two-turn route of ground. This seems like a significantly weaker group, and the drop in class doesn’t bother me given the aggressive connections; #13 BRISKY FROLIC: Needs a few scratches to run but merits a long look if she draws in off the also-eligible list. Her races going two turns against straight maidens are fine, and the last-out race was probably far shorter than she wanted to run; #8 ROUNDABOUT: Is worth closer examination at a big price. Her two-back effort going six furlongs wasn’t bad, and John Terranova’s numbers with horses adding blinkers are very good. At a minimum, expect her to be prominent early.

Ring of Fire
Legends Can’t Die
Bustin Shout

#3 RING OF FIRE: Has three wins and two seconds from six turf sprints, and his consistency earns him a tepid nod in a wide-open event. This is his third start off of a long layoff, and Luis Saez lands here when he probably had a few options; #5 LEGENDS CAN’T DIE: Rallied to win his debut by a head downstate and tries winners for the first time. George Weaver’s firsters sometimes need a race or two to get going, but this one tipped his hand with several strong drills, so there’s clearly some talent here; #4 BUSTIN SHOUT: Has run well here in the past and figures to be prominent early. His two-back win at Aqueduct was pretty sharp, and maybe he needed his last-out effort off a bit of a break.

Price Discipline
Windylea entry
Mr Breadwinner

#4 PRICE DISCIPLINE: Broke his maiden easily two starts ago and just missed in his first try against winners. Blinkers go on for his first two-turn endeavor, and any sort of move forward would make him a formidable favorite; WINDYLEA ENTRY: I prefer #1 DANGEROUS EDGE, who’s won two in a row and has progressed significantly since being claimed by Rob Atras in April. This is a tougher group than the ones he’s beaten downstate, but further improvement isn’t out of the question; #7 MR BREADWINNER: Comes back to dirt after two failed turf tries and should love this distance. He’s by Tonalist, out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, and won his last dirt start at Aqueduct.

Kantarmaci entry (MTO)
Balthus
Mud Pie

#5 BALTHUS: Has clearly figured things out in his last two starts, both runaway wins going long on the lawn at Belmont. When Chad Brown gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there, and he could have a very, very nice prospect on his hands; #3 MUD PIE: Makes his second start off the bench here, and does so in his first try as a gelding. He was a consistent turf marathoner before the ultimate equipment change, and the faster they go early, the better his chances figure to be; #6 OFFLEE NAUGHTY: Is worth consideration in vertical exotics as a longshot threat. He was an okay fourth in the Grade 3 San Luis Rey at Santa Anita, and he adds blinkers for an astute barn that doesn’t run many horses in New York.

R10

Storm Shooter (MTO)
Sandrone
Lord Gatling

#11 SANDRONE: Runs for a tag for the first time and attracts Luis Saez in a confusing Thursday finale. The post position is a challenge, but there’s also a chance he’s just plain faster than these horses, and that he can clear and save ground going into the turn; #7 LORD GATLING: Makes his first start on turf and is bred to love it. He’s by Noble Mission, out of a Dubai Millennium mare, and exits a winning effort in the mud at Belmont; #2 COUSIN ANDREW: Hasn’t won in a while but has shown a closing kick that could prove helpful in a race that seems to have some early zip signed on. His two-back effort against similar foes was okay, and that day’s pilot sees fit to ride back.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/27/22)

Posted on July 25, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $890.20

Sunday’s card featured a no-win situation. The seventh race was rightfully ruled a no-contest after a bizarre sequence of events. Pick Four players were briefly left to wonder what was going on until the New York Racing Association made an official announcement that all tickets would be refunded.

Much like with the “make a race an ‘all’” Pick Five situation in the first week of the meet, NYRA made the correct call, albeit a bit later than most handicappers would’ve preferred. In both instances, I wouldn’t have minded a delay of the next race while the matter in question was fully sorted out. Waiting 10 or 15 minutes wouldn’t have hurt anyone, and it would’ve given bettors opportunities to re-evaluate sequences and bet accordingly.

These two instances are freak occurrences, though, and I won’t judge anyone for being thrown off by them. Hopefully, we can return to some semblance of normalcy over the last three-quarters of the meet.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Key of Life was one of several top picks of mine that scratched. As a result, all of my action was called off.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I cannot get past #2 DISARMED in the third, and I’ll wager in hopes of extracting some value. In addition to a $20 win bet on that runner, I’ll single him to finish off $5 doubles that start in the second with #4 DAILY BRIEFING and #6 BIG TONY’S GIRL. If we can beat the even-money chalk in the first leg, those doubles may pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Disarmed, Race 3
Longshot: Alice Kramden, Race 6

Ancient Times
Welshman
Bee Major

#1 ANCIENT TIMES: Has proven tough when left alone on the lead, both over fences and on the flat. This is his first steeplechase start against winners, but his early speed should be an asset, and I think he can wire this bunch; #8 WELSHMAN: Was perhaps wheeled back a bit quickly after his maiden-breaking score in April. However, Hall of Fame horseman Jack Fisher has rested him up for this one, and I expect him to be prominent from an early stage; #3 BEE MAJOR: Was pulled up last time out but prevailed two back. In his flat racing days, he definitely preferred firmer surfaces, and perhaps the soft going had something to do with his last-out clunker.

Daily Briefing
Big Tony’s Girl
Knot Anymore

#4 DAILY BRIEFING: Has a record that looks very solid if you solely focus on her dirt sprints. She was third last time in a race where she was probably a bit too far back early on. I expect her to be up closer here, and her usual effort would give her a big chance; #6 BIG TONY’S GIRL: Cuts back from seven furlongs to six and may benefit from drier going in this spot. Her lone start over a fast track this season was also her lone win of the year, and she bested my top pick two back downstate; #1 KNOT ANYMORE: Is an even-money favorite and may simply be too much in her first start for a tag, but I have my doubts. It’s not like she was running against world-beaters at Charles Town, and her races at Laurel, while OK, were a cut below her efforts over the West Virginia bullring. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

Disarmed
Noble Huntsman
General Banker

#2 DISARMED: Hammered for $165,000 at auction last summer and has trained forwardly ahead of his debut. The recent four-furlong gate drill was a real head-turner, and there’s plenty of class in his pedigree, as dam Saravati is kin to multiple Grade 1 heroine You; #5 NOBLE HUNTSMAN: Is one of many debuting for barns whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going. However, his dam won her debut sprinting on turf and is a half-sister to stakes-winner Carameaway, so this son of Noble Mission has a right to be a runner; #3 GENERAL BANKER: Is a full sibling to a four-time winner and is bred up and down to be a sharp turf sprinter. The lack of precocity from this barn is a red flag, but he boasts a few solid drills and figures to be a big price.

Bella Sofia
Frank’s Rockette
Kimari

#2 BELLA SOFIA: Is 2-for-2 this season and looms large in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. She won last year’s Grade 1 Test over this track, and her lone career misfire came over a Del Mar surface she may not have cared for last November; #1 FRANK’S ROCKETTE: Is as consistent as they come, with 19 top-three finishes in 21 lifetime outings. She hasn’t won in more than a year, but she ran my top pick to a nose in the Grade 3 Vagrancy and gets four pounds from that rival today; #4 KIMARI: Might be over the top as a 5-year-old mare, but boasts the right running style as this event’s lone closing-type. She was third in the Grade 1 Madison two back at Keeneland, a race she won in 2021, and a performance that turns back the clock would put her right there.

Hometown (MTO)
Mooney Love
Forwardly

#6 MOONEY LOVE: Makes his American debut after spending his career to date overseas. He cruised home in a minor stakes race in Germany last time out, and his prior connections ran him in a pair of Group 2 events last season. If his form made the trip with him across the Atlantic, look out; #2 FORWARDLY: Graduated last time out at Belmont and faces winners for the first time. He’s lightly-raced, so he may have further potential to improve, but the last-out second and third-place finishers have both come back to run mediocre races up here; #4 CURBSTONE: Gets back to the lawn after several starts over the main track at Churchill Downs. This race seems fairly light on early speed, and this front-runner’s best effort came going a mile and a quarter. He’ll likely be sent early on and lead them as long as he can.

Repole entry
Alice Kramden
Silver Skillet

#1 GAMBLING GIRL: Was 6/5 in her debut last month at Belmont and got a terrible trip. She checked hard going into the turn, got shuffled way back, was floated wide turning for home, and still ran fourth just a length behind the runner-up. A step forward and a less-eventful journey would make her formidable at second asking; #10 ALICE KRAMDEN: Hammered for $200,000 at auction last fall and gets a cushy outside post in her career debut. Her dam and second dam both won stakes races, and there are several works in this one’s tab that indicate she may have potential; #5 SILVER SKILLET: Sold for $260,000 across the street last summer and is training well ahead of her unveiling. Her dam was a stakes-winner that captured her debut, and first-call rider Joel Rosario will be aboard.

Mirth ’n Merriment
Hatari
Spooky Road

#5 MIRTH ’N MERRIMENT: Seems like the lone speed in this two-turn turf route, and those types are usually tough to bear. She topped older foes over Presque Isle’s synthetic course last time out and boasts a front-running win at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this season; #1 HATARI: Is one of two Mike Maker trainees in this field, and she gets the benefit of both a class drop and new jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. On figures, she fits, but will she get enough pace to run at?; #2 SPOOKY ROAD: May be the more forwardly-placed Maker runner, as she attracts both blinkers and aggressive gate rider Luis Saez. She goes second off the bench here and may have needed her comeback race at Belmont.

O’Gotten Girl
Unlock
Preposterous

#8 O’GOTTEN GIRL: Takes a massive drop in class for aggressive connections and figures to be prominent early. A return to her mid-2021 form second off the layoff would make her tough to beat, and this is by far the weakest bunch she’s ever run against; #9 UNLOCK: Merits a look coming back to dirt after stopping badly against starter allowance foes on turf. Her effort two back, though, was sharp, and Dylan Davis sticking with this one after the clunker hits me as a good sign; #5 PREPOSTEROUS: Cuts back to this six-furlong distance and runs for a tag for the first time. This barn excels with horses going from routes to sprints, and the recent four-furlong drill here indicates she’s taken to this surface well.

Misty Veil (MTO)
High Opinion
Evvie Jets

#1 HIGH OPINION: Gets some class relief after winning a listed stakes race at Parx last month. She ran well here twice a season ago, including when she ran second to the talented Viadera in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa; #7 EVVIE JETS: Gets back to a two-turn route of ground, which she’s proven she loves. She won a pretty fast race for the level downstate last time out, and her lone local start was a wire-to-wire win last summer; #5 MESSIDOR: Has plenty of back class and most recently ran fourth in the Perfect Sting a few weeks ago. On figures, she more than fits, but she also has a history of finding trouble and doesn’t seem like the easiest horse to ride.

R10

Course Runner
Aquila Moon
Dover Dreams

#4 COURSE RUNNER: Gets a tepid nod in a confusing Wednesday finale. Unlike several of her rivals, she has a recent race, having run fourth last month at Churchill for a barn whose first-time starters don’t usually win. She’s bred to be any kind and could take a significant step forward with experience; #11 AQUILA MOON: Showed speed first time out when fourth behind a pair of next-out winners. That was on Halloween of last year, so the layoff is a concern, but she’s trained consistently ahead of her return and draws well here; #8 DOVER DREAMS: Chased the likes of Nest and Goddess of Fire as a 2-year-old, so she has every right to improve with those fillies off competing at the highest level. She hasn’t run since September, but she gets Lasix for the first time and would be a pretty considerable overlay at anywhere close to the morning line price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/24/22)

Posted on July 22, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $890.20

I’ve written these bankroll blurbs from strange places before, but this one may take the cake. I’m writing this one from my girlfriend’s best friend’s baby shower in Orange County, California. My role is to keep the soon-to-be father company and eat as much as humanly possible at Gus’s Barbecue in South Pasadena after the event is over.

Funny story: On the way down, my girlfriend leaned over and said she thought the air in the plane smelled horrible. Without missing a beat, I quipped, “don’t worry, I’m pretty sure they can crack a window or something once we get going.”

Predictably, while I found this wildly entertaining, she did not. She really IS a saint.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Scratches reduced my investment to just a single $9 Pick Five play, which went up in smoke when my first-race single lost as the favorite.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: Anything close to the 2-1 morning line price on #2 KEY OF LIFE in the sixth hits me as an overlay, so I’ll focus on that one. I’ll play a $20 win ticket on her, $5 exactas using her over #4 KALING and #7 RARIFY, and $5 doubles starting with her that end with #3 LOVE TANK and #10 TREASURED GEM in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $40.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Key of Life, Race 6
Longshot: Drakon, Race 10

Wasabi Boy
Bat Flip
Faithful and True

#7 WASABI BOY: Has an experience edge over most of this group and may have bounced last time out after a strong debut. He ran into Forte in his unveiling, then didn’t make the lead at Monmouth. A repeat of his first-out performance would give him a big shot; #2 BAT FLIP: Debuts for Todd Pletcher and will take plenty of money solely based on that fact. This $350,000 son of Good Magic has a few five-furlong works on his slate, as well as a bullet gate drill over the Oklahoma track, and he could have the foundation to fire at first asking; #1 FAITHFUL AND TRUE: Draws the rail in his first start, which usually isn’t ideal. However, this $450,000 auction buy has been working very well at Keeneland and attracts Flavien Prat.

Once a Giant
Ampersand
Icon

#4 ONCE A GIANT: Takes a massive drop in class for August Dawn Farm, otherwise known as former Giants coach Bill Parcells. He hasn’t fired against starter allowance company, but anything close to his three-back score at Aqueduct would make him formidable against this bunch; #2 AMPERSAND: Ships up from Florida for trainer Phil Serpe, and on figures sure seems like the one to beat. However, that 0-for-14 mark over the last two years raises “pack animal” questions, ones that are fair to ask given his likely short price; #1 ICON: Ran reasonably well in his first start since November of 2020, when he was third against $20,000 claimers at Churchill. Robertino Diodoro excels with new acquisitions, and the recent four-furlong work here was very quick.

Power Agenda
Doctor Love
Taco Bean

#2 POWER AGENDA: Was pretty highly-regarded a season ago, when he debuted with a win and ran fifth in the Grade 1 Hopeful. He takes a massive drop here, but does so for aggressive connections that aren’t afraid to lose horses to other barns in pursuit of victories at the Spa; #4 DOCTOR LOVE: Continues dropping down after running fourth for a $50,000 tag last month at Churchill Downs. This level should be more to his liking, and he’s one of only a few closers in a race that seems heavy on early zip; #3 TACO BEAN: Hasn’t won in a while but goes first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, who’s won a few races already at this stand. Jose Lezcano climbs aboard, and there’s every chance he moves up for his new connections.

Phantom Smoke
King Angelo
Call Me Harry

#6 PHANTOM SMOKE: Came back running off the bench when second in a fast race for the level downstate. He’s finished first or second in all but one of his career outings, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., riding back when he probably had options inspires confidence; #1 KING ANGELO: Broke his maiden at this route last summer and is another going second off the bench. He has the speed to establish position from his inside post, which is always handy in these turf sprints; #5 CALL ME HARRY: Has a sheet that looks miles better if you toss the races that aren’t turf sprints. Two of his three career wins have come here, and perhaps he’s ready to fire a big one at a price in the third start of his form cycle.

Malathaat
Clairiere
Exotic West

#3 MALATHAAT: Headlines a Grade 3 Shuvee field that’s light on numbers but heavy on quality. She just missed in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps downstate, but has never fired a bad shot and could be more involved early given the addition of blinkers; #4 CLAIRIERE: Nipped my top pick last time out while benefiting from an ideal pace scenario. This race shouldn’t melt down like that one did, but she’s another ultra-consistent filly that’s found her best form, and maybe she doesn’t need a perfect setup to win; #1 EXOTIC WEST: Was a distant second in the Grade 3 DuPont behind a freakish performance, and his cracked the exacta in each of the last six races she’s finished. This barn popped at a price in a stakes race already this summer, and while a win may be a bit too much to ask form, she may inherit the lead by default and hang on for a piece of it.

Key of Life
Rarify
Kaling

#2 KEY OF LIFE: Lost all chance at the start of her debut, where she was third as a 2/5 favorite. She’s had two very strong drills since coming to upstate New York, and I’m more than willing to give her another chance at second asking; #7 RARIFY: Fits the mold of the “fast Wesley Ward 2-year-old” to a tee. She sold for $750,000 at Keeneland last year, and this daughter of Justify has been working well enough to hint that she could, well, justify that price tag; #4 KALING: Makes her first start for the tag team of Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat, and does so with a steady string of works downstate. She earned a bullet for her July 8th drill and can’t be ignored.

Love Tank
Treasured Gem
Idea Generation

#3 LOVE TANK: Stepped forward at second asking after a bad break in her debut. She was a close second after leading most of the way, and this barn excels with horses stretching out after a pair of sprint races. Add in Luis Saez and the 8-1 morning line, and I’m very intrigued; #10 TREASURED GEM: Needs to overcome a far outside post but certainly seems to be bred up and down for this route. This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has a few very strong works on her sheet, and the Rosario/Clement duo merits respect, especially on the lawn; #5 IDEA GENERATION: Debuts for Chad Brown after being shipped over from the Tattersalls sale and will almost certainly go favored. However, the works are just okay, and while she’s bred to be any kind, it’s fair to ask questions of a horse that will take lots of money at the windows.

Kinetic Sky
Emerald Express
Swiftsure

#3 KINETIC SKY: Was 5-1 in a Grade 3 not long ago and drops in for a tag in his 2022 debut. However, that’s not a panicky drop. These connections win with droppers like this very often, he’s working well, and a return to his 2021 form would make him a tough favorite to beat; #4 EMERALD EXPRESS: Was claimed by Joe Sharp following a second-place finish at this level at Churchill. That was his second solid performance in a row at this level, and he’s shown enough flexibility to give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #7 SWIFTSURE: Probably needed his return off a long break, where he faded to fourth behind a pretty fast horse. He showed enough class to be favored in last year’s Grade 3 Lexington, and the outside draw is certainly a plus.

Baba (MTO)
Osiria
Tuscan Queen

#1 OSIRIA: Led at every call to break her maiden and earned an 83 Beyer Speed Figure in doing so. She’s moved forward in every start, and while Belmont’s turf course can play kindly to early speed, she went pretty fast throughout in that event, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win; #8 TUSCAN QUEEN: Likely needed her 2022 debut, which was her first race since December. She gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz second off the bench, and she ran two solid races here a season ago; #6 CAIRONI: Merits a look underneath at a pretty big price. Her lone win came in her lone turf sprint, and perhaps she’d just been going too far ever since. It wouldn’t be shocking to see her clunk up for a share beneath Dylan Davis.

R10

Street Vendor
Drakon
Smoke and Heat

#7 STREET VENDOR: Just missed against maiden special weight foes at Monmouth and runs for a tag here. Luis Saez rides for Pletcher, and any improvement second off the long layoff could make this one-time $500,000 purchase the one to beat in the Sunday nightcap; #3 DRAKON: Was third downstate in his first start on turf, and many things indicate he’ll be prominent early in a race otherwise light on early zip. Blinkers go on, as does top gate rider Kendrick Carmouche, and this barn hits at a high enough percentage to where this one hits me as a must-use; #1 SMOKE AND HEAT: Drops in for a tag after a trio of OK showings against straight maidens. On figures, he fits, but it’s worth noting the first two finishers from his last race have both come back to run poorly at short prices.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/23/22)

Posted on July 21, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $899.20

In addition to Saturday’s big card at Saratoga, there’s also a huge day on tap at Monmouth Park. It’s Haskell Day, and the main event features a clash between Jack Christopher and Taiba. I sat in on PlayUSA’s Haskell preview show, which can be seen on the PlayUSA YouTube channel.

Dave Bontempo, Bill Gelman, and I were joined by morning line man Brad Thomas and Dallas Baker of BetMakers, and it was a blast. If you’re playing that race, you won’t want to miss it!

FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My Grand Slam tickets went up in smoke when my second-leg single was off the board. As such, I dropped $16.

SATURDAY’S PLAYS: This is an outstanding slate. My action starts in the opener with an early 50-cent Pick Five ticket that reads as follows: 7 with 6,7 with 3,6 with ALL with 5. I’ll also play an early 50-cent Pick Four starting in the second race that goes like this: 6 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,6,8,9 with 5.

TOTAL WAGERED: $24.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Activist Investing, Race 1
Longshot: Prisoner, Race 8

Activist Investing
Coach Petro
Reckoning Force

#7 ACTIVIST INVESTING: Fetched $313,000 at the Tattersalls sale and has some of the best turf breeding of any horse on the grounds. His 451 turf Tomlinson rating is exceptional, he’s been working steadily for Chad Brown, and he looms large; #5 COACH PETRO: Debuts for Brad Cox, who’s enjoyed a stellar meet to this point, and is another with plenty of turf in his pedigree. His dam was a stakes-winner on the lawn, and this female family also threw Grade 2 turf winner Speaktomeofsummer; #9 RECKONING FORCE: Was third in his debut overseas and makes his first North American start for Joseph O’Brien. He’s got an experience edge over the first-time starters, and this dam’s two other foals to race are both winners.

Risk Profile (MTO)
Private Life
Brazillionaire

#6 PRIVATE LIFE: Ran too poorly to be true last time out in an off-the-turf event. He gets back to his preferred surface and drops in class, and anything close to his two-back win over starter allowance foes at Gulfstream would make him a tough customer; #7 BRAZILLIONAIRE: Capitalized on a perfect trip last time out with an easy four-length jaunt downstate, and his record looks far better if you focus on his sprint efforts. This isn’t an easy spot for the level, but he’s doing what he wants to do, and that matters; #2 ME ’N SAP: Drops back in for a tag on short rest after a start against higher-level competition last week. His win two back wasn’t bad, and David Donk’s horses are generally running pretty well to this point in the summer.

Jane Grey
Repealing
Bank On Anna

#3 JANE GREY: Had every right to need her first start since September of 2020, but ran a decent second behind an impressive winner. Bill Mott’s horses tend to improve second off the bench, and the presence of Luis Saez is intriguing; #6 REPEALING: Ran in probably the best maiden race of the season last year against champion Echo Zulu and stakes-winner Lady Scarlet, among others. She came back running with a win last month at Churchill Downs, and she goes against winners for the first time here; #1 BANK ON ANNA: Has won three of her last four starts against state-breds and tries open company here. She’s got some versatility and doesn’t necessarily need to be on the lead to run well, which could help her snag a piece of this at a price.

Mozay
Veronica Greene
Sixth Street

#1 MOZAY: Has been close on a number of occasions and draws favorably in this wide-open turf event. She just missed last time out, when she was involved in a three-way photo at Belmont, and she’s run well going two turns in the past; #6 VERONICA GREENE: Tries the turf for the first time and is bred to love it. Her two dirt outings have been a bit disappointing, but she continues to hint at talent in the mornings and Irad Ortiz, Jr., has been enticed to ride; #9 SIXTH STREET: Is a European export getting Lasix for the first time, which is always a notable angle. She’d been sprinting overseas and stretches out for a very capable barn, and this may not be the toughest race we see at this level this summer.

Secret Oath
Nest
Nostalgic

#5 SECRET OATH: Had a nightmare trip in the Grade 1 Preakness against boys, which came just two weeks after a smashing score in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. She’s been training forwardly for one of the best to ever condition a racehorse, and I think she’ll be tough in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks; #3 NEST: Wasn’t disgraced a bit when second behind stablemate Mo Donegal in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes going a mile and a half. She’s never missed the board in seven career starts and seems ready to fire again; #4 NOSTALGIC: Didn’t have a great trip in the Oaks, which came after a late-running score in the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct. She showed tactical speed in a few starts earlier this year, and I think she’s better than her last-out effort indicates.

Powerful
Full Moon Madness
Phelpsy

#5 POWERFUL: Gets a tepid nod in a puzzling 2-year-old maiden race that feels heavy on potential. This son of Nyquist hammered for $525,000 at auction, is out of a mare whose two prior foals to race are winners, and possesses a few eye-catching works for Steve Asmussen; #2 FULL MOON MADNESS: Debuts for Michelle Nevin, whose horses tend to need a race or two to get going, and the inside draw isn’t ideal. However, he’s out of multiple Grade 1 winner By the Moon, and his July 9th work at Belmont Park jumps off the page; #8 PHELPSY: Was a million-dollar baby at the Keeneland sale last September. This son of Into Mischief has an outstanding female family, with a dam that’s kin to multiple graded stakes-winner Private Mission. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he may want longer than this six-furlong route of ground.

Tough Street
Writers Room
Quick Power Nap

#2 TOUGH STREET: Makes her 2022 debut off a long break, but adds Lasix for Chad Brown and finally gets to try turf. Broodmare sire Freud is an excellent grass influence, and her dam is a half-sister to stakes-winning turfer Jazzy Jessy; #8 WRITERS ROOM: Is one of several exiting the same maiden race on June 25th at Belmont and closed at first asking, which isn’t an easy thing to do. Linda Rice’s runners tend to improve at second asking, and a logical step forward gives her a big chance; #6 QUICK POWER NAP: Was second to a good horse in her debut at this route last summer, then went away for 11 months and came back to run third in the race my second choice exits. She figures to be prominent early for a barn whose horses always seem live.

Highly Respected
Prisoner
Favorite Outlaw

#7 HIGHLY RESPECTED: Cuts back to a sprint after getting nailed at the wire in back-to-back races downstate, one of which was the Grade 3 Bay Shore. He’s fired back-to-back bullet drills ahead of this allowance race, and the cushy outside draw is a big plus; #3 PRISONER: Ran a clunker last time out after starting his career with three consecutive wins. Two recent bullets hint that he’s come back to form for Charlton Baker, and repeats of the races he ran earlier this year at Aqueduct would give him a shot at a very square price; #4 FAVORITE OUTLAW: Has a win and two seconds from three lifetime starts and most recently ran second behind a runaway winner at Churchill Downs. He’s run races that would make him very competitive in this spot, and this lightly-raced colt may still have some room to improve.

Uncle Moonlight
Stage Raider
Rising Empire

#1 UNCLE MOONLIGHT: Capitalized on a “lone speed” situation last time out at Belmont and posted a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, easily a career-best. A similar scenario could present itself here, as this one sure looks like the main pace factor in his two-turn debut; #7 STAGE RAIDER: Is best known as Justify’s younger half-brother, but has run several strong figures and may simply be better than this group. However, he’s 0-for-3 this year, and while he was second behind the talented Highly Motivated last time out, he was probably supposed to win the two-back race. At his likely price, I’ll take a stand against him; #3 RISING EMPIRE: Ran a clunker last time out at Churchill Downs, but adds blinkers and has enough back form to suggest that was an outlier. Brendan Walsh got this one going pretty well earlier this year, and the last-out dud may mean we get an inflated price.

R10

Tobys Heart
Caravel
Star Devine

#5 TOBYS HEART: Could provide some value in a wide-open renewal of the Grade 3 Caress. She was beaten four lengths in the Grade 3 Intercontinental, but early speed held well in that race. This one is 4-for-4 at this distance, likes Saratoga, and should get plenty of pace to chase; #1 CARAVEL: Became the Intercontinental champion (first wrestling reference of the season!) last time out, and we’ve seen her run some sensational races. She can run well on the lead or sitting just off the pace, and it wouldn’t be stunning if she won this race for a second year in a row; #3 STAR DEVINE: Has run second twice in as many 2022 outings, but has chased quality fillies home and could have room to improve. She won a minor stakes race at this route last summer, and John Velazquez certainly knows her very well.

R11

Bold Victory
Catch That Party
Shinsun

#8 CATCH THAT PARTY: Rated behind a pretty slow early pace last time out, but still rallied and was beaten less than two lengths. He ran well here three times last summer, and it’s telling that aggressive connections protect him rather than drop into a softer spot; #7 SHINSUN: Carries an unusual pedigree and bucked a big trend when he won his debut for Barclay Tagg, who doesn’t usually have his first-time starters fully cranked. This gelding by Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward, out of a German mare, could have some talent, and Luis Saez riding back is encouraging; #1 FRONT MAN: Exits the same race as my top pick and was beaten a length by that runner on that occasion. This one has won his lone local start to date, and a repeat of his two-back winning effort would give him a puncher’s chance at a price.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE: Analysis, Selections, and Bankroll (7/22/22)

Posted on July 20, 2022 by Andrew Champagne

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $915.20

Another major track opens today, as the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club kicks off its summer meet. The venue, located just outside sunny San Diego, has recently worked its way into the Breeders’ Cup rotation, and the “Saratoga or Del Mar?” debates are often inescapable.

Here’s my take: One of those two tracks has helped me build my career. The other actively tried to destroy it before it really got started.

If you want the story, find me sometime. We’re coming up on the time where I can tell it publicly, but we’re not quite there yet.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched out of the Grand Slam (after extolling the virtues of that wager, ironically enough), and my late doubles were washed out when the finale was moved off the turf. Remember: All plays in this section assume races carded for the grass stay there.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll take another swing at the Grand Slam. My $4 ticket starting in the sixth reads as follows: 1,7 with 7 with 3,6 with 6. I’m hoping to extract some value out of #6 EMINENT VICTOR in the Lake George, and this may be a way to do that.

TOTAL WAGERED: $16.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 2
Longshot: Makart, Race 6

Rarify (MTO)
Wico
Appraise

#2 WICO: Had an eventful journey in his debut, when he missed the break, rushed up, led briefly in midstretch, and ran out of energy. Everything about that effort says he’ll move forward with experience, and such improvement gives him a big chance despite this turning up pretty strong; #6 APPRAISE: Fetched $256,000 at the Tattersalls sale and has every right to be a runner. Chad Brown’s had plenty of success here with debuting runners that possess European pedigree; #4 ALEXIS ZORBA: Makes his U.S. debut for Joseph O’Brien, who’s maintaining a small string here this summer. The intrigue may attract money, but Europe isn’t known for flashy 2-year-olds. Perhaps he’s good enough, but I need more value than I’m likely to get.

Klaravich entry
Happy Bob (MTO)
Oglethorpe

KLARAVICH ENTRY: Both #1 INDEMNIFY and #1A GLOBAL CAPITAL have big chances here. The former is another European-bred runner that could be any kind, and the latter has run well when second on three straight occasions; #6 OGLETHORPE: Is one of several exiting an off-the-turf event downstate. He closed late to be beaten just a half-length in his unveiling, and this barn’s runners tend to need a race or two to get going; #2 CLUBBING: Was fourth in the race Oglethorpe exits and has plenty of reason to improve here. He’s bred up and down for turf, being a full sibling to a Grade 3-placed grass horse, and the switch to a two-turn configuration should only help him.

Amount
Claytnthelionheart
Hammerin Aamer

#5 AMOUNT: Threw in a clunker last time and takes a big drop in class for this event. He won three in a row earlier this year, including two at this one-mile distance, and the shallower waters figure to make this Todd Pletcher trainee a formidable foe; #3 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART: Has finished in the money in five of six local starts, and three of those efforts have been winning ones. This is his third start off a long layoff, and a return to his mid-2021 form would make him intriguing; #2 HAMMERIN AAMER: Comes back to what’s probably the right level in his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He’s been around a while and has run some strong races at this distance, but the 0-for-8 local mark is a significant concern.

Beachfront Bid
I’m Glad
Whiskey Lullaby

#8 BEACHFRONT BID: Has been competitive in six starts against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. That’s a significant drop from an aggressive barn, and while the recent Monmouth works would normally be a concern, Brown’s horses coming from New Jersey have run well so far at this stand; #7 I’M GLAD: Probably bounced off of a solid debut when last of 10 as a 2-1 favorite at Belmont. This barn is another that doesn’t mess around and boasts very strong numbers going from maiden special weight races to maiden claiming events; #4 WHISKEY LULLABY: Improved at second asking when third at this level downstate. Top-tier turf rider Jose Lezcano climbs back aboard for this one, and she should be prominent early at a bit of a price.

Dubb entry
Our Country
Sonic Speed

DUBB ENTRY: I prefer #1 CHESS’S DREAM, who won the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy in 2021 and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since. However, he goes second off the bench, gets back to a two-turn route of ground, and attracts Jose Ortiz for this event; #6 OUR COUNTRY: Has been running against starter allowance company for most of this year, but his last start for a claiming tag was a win. Flavien Prat rides back after a one-paced fifth-place finish downstate, which hits me as a good sign; #9 SONIC SPEED: Has a record that looks far better if you only focus on two-turn turf races. Do that and you’re left with wins at Gulfstream and Aqueduct and an OK fourth at Laurel (remember, Belmont’s mile is a one-turn course). This is a high-percentage barn that wins lots of races, and he may be a bit of a price.

Ria’s Angel
Makart
Slow Decision

#1 RIA’S ANGEL: Showed improvement two back in his lone dirt route and comes back to the main track after a failed turf experiment. This race out of the Wilson chute is a perplexing one, but a repeat of that early-May effort would put him right there; #7 MAKART: Earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure last time out in his second start off the bench, which doubled as his second start for this barn. He didn’t miss by much that day, and while there were no world-beaters in that field, this field doesn’t appear to be any great shakes, either; #4 SLOW DECISION: Faded to fifth in his debut on turf and goes to dirt here. He’s supposed to take money, and he probably will, but other than the connections, what inspires confidence, especially at his likely price?

Efficiency
Keepmeinmind
Naval Aviator

#7 EFFICIENCY: Romped by 11 lengths in an off-the-turf event to break his maiden last time out and makes his first start against winners here. Perhaps he’s just a mud freak, but offspring of Gun Runner have shown they can perform in any conditions, and the consistent work tab inspires some confidence; #1 KEEPMEINMIND: Danced a lot of dances a season ago, most notably running in two-thirds of the Triple Crown and finishing second in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. If he’s ready and gets a perfect trip, he looms large, but he’s shown he finds trouble, and the rail is often a poor place to be for horses like that; #4 NAVAL AVIATOR: Stepped up in class last time out for trainer Joe Sharp and won with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure first off the claim. There’s plenty of early speed signed on, and it’s not illogical to think he’ll be going the right way late when others are tiring.

Kokopelli
Sassy Melissa
Makin My Move

#3 KOKOPELLI: Hasn’t been seen in more than a year but returns for patient connections that boast strong numbers with similar stock. This race seems very heavy on early speed, which could set up perfectly for Joel Rosario and this one-run closer; #6 SASSY MELISSA: Is another closer, and one that has a win and a second in two starts at this route. She was a fast-closing second last time out with a troubled trip, and smooth sailing would make her a major player here; #1 MAKIN MY MOVE: Interests me most of the early speed horses and could capitalize on the inside draw. She wired an OK field last time out, and that day’s runner-up came back to run second in a minor stakes race earlier this week.

Eminent Victor
Skims
Koala Princess

#6 EMINENT VICTOR: Hits me as the more logical of the two Chad Brown trainees in the Grade 3 Lake George. She came back running off a long break to take a stakes race at Belmont and should get plenty of pace to chase in this spot. Prat knows her well, and horse and rider should be flying late; #8 SKIMS: Hasn’t gotten a legitimate pace in either of her two graded stakes tries to date but should get one here. That alone is enough for me to consider this daughter of Frankel a threat, and the recent local bullet drill is also noteworthy; #4 KOALA PRINCESS: Was the betting favorite in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, where she was beaten less than three lengths. We haven’t seen her since, but this barn does very well with horses coming back from long breaks and her best effort would put her right there.

R10

Let Her Inspire U
Leeloo
Fancy Feline

#8 LET HER INSPIRE U: Hinted at some potential last year and came back running off the bench with an easy score last month at Belmont. She should be able to sit just off the pace and have first run turning for home, which would give her every chance at a second straight victory; #7 LEELOO: Hasn’t run since March, but returns for a new conditioner and comes in off of a very fast four-furlong gate work at Keeneland. She was favored in a stakes race over the winter and has every right to be a more-developed horse in her comeback race; #6 FANCY FELINE: Gets a big rider switch to Luis Saez and could get a lot of pace in front of her. Perhaps her best isn’t good enough to win, but as one of only a few closers in a race with lots of speed, she’s one I’d use underneath in vertical exotics to end the Friday program.