BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $949.90

Sunday was Queen’s Plate Day at Woodbine, and it was a fabulous day of racing. Irad Ortiz, Jr., put forth one of the best rides I’ve seen in quite some time to get Safe Conduct home in the main event. Silent Poet handed Caravel a stunning defeat in the Grade 1 Highlander, and Dylan Davis took the trip up north to win the Grade 2 Dance Smartly aboard Mutamakina.

The card also, however, featured a first-time starter named Arafat. That name gave me pause, and the name of the sire, War On Gaza, didn’t help. Yasser Arafat, of course, led the Palestine Liberation Organization for many years, and the PLO has been recognized as a terrorist organization since 1987. I asked the Jockey Club for more information on how the name was approved and diversity within the registration process. Through its communications department, the organization declined to comment.

Eric Guillot named a horse Grape Soda as a direct attack on TVG anchor Ken Rudulph, and it wasn’t long ago that there was a controversy over a horse named Noose (renamed Scabbard). This begs an important question: What’s happening with the naming process that’s causing these names to get through without being flagged?

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Both subjects of win bets ran second, and my fifth-race exactas fizzled. I dropped $32.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the late Pick Four, which starts in the seventh race. My 50-cent ticket looks like this: 2,5 with 4,5 with 3,4,5,6 with 2,5,10,11. The last two races look pretty wide-open, and I think this could pay pretty well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Waterville, Race 6
Longshot: Cool Quest, Race 5

R1

Rudy Rod
No Burn
Napoleon Complex

#3 RUDY ROD: Tries something I’ve never seen before, in that he’s entered to run in the first race on a Wednesday after racing in the Sunday finale three days prior. He was a good second a few days ago, and a repeat of that race would make him tough; #5 NO BURN: Takes a very big drop in class after showing speed in a pair of turf outings. He does have a few solid works on the dirt, and it’s not like he’d need to be a world-beater or step forward all that much to have a chance; #8 NAPOLEON COMPLEX: Is a big price on the morning line but could clunk up for a piece of it. The race he exits was a fairly tough one for the level. He showed some early zip that day, and the third-place finisher came back to beat my top pick over the weekend.

R2

Quick Return
Extreme Force
Forest Spirit

#3 QUICK RETURN: Cuts back to one turn after a failed two-turn experiment against state-bred allowance foes. He gets Lasix for the first time while returning to what seems like his preferred route of ground, and I’m gambling on a return to form; #1 EXTREME FORCE: Tried turf in his first start off the claim by Mike Maker, and that didn’t go so well. He returns to the dirt and drops in for his lowest claiming tag to date, and he’s got some back races that would make him competitive here; #4 FOREST SPIRIT: Came up a nose short at this level last time out and may go favored, but I have a few reservations. That last race fell apart up front, and they went the last furlong in 14 seconds. There seems to be a bit less pace signed on here, and while he’s talented enough to win, that may work against him.

R3

Singita Dreams (MTO)
Pocket Square
Key Biscayne

#1 POCKET SQUARE: Will be a heavy favorite on a drop in class after chasing Althiqa and Summer Romance in back-to-back Grade 1 events. Any way you look at this race, she towers over this field, and the only thing that could keep her out of the winner’s circle may be a surface switch if the turf course needs to dry out; #4 KEY BISCAYNE: Makes her first start for Mike Maker and showed enough class last summer to run third in the Saratoga Oaks. This is her third start off a long layoff, and she’d also be formidable if this race was moved to the main track; #2 BRAMBLE BAY: Is a very consistent sort that seems to run the same race every time out. Her lone clunker over the past two years came in a dirt sprint at Monmouth, and this is the type of race that plays to her strengths.

R4

Invaluable
Timely Tradition
Shasta Star

#3 INVALUABLE: Has been competitive against far better horses and takes a big drop in class for an aggressive ownership group. She’s hit the board nine times in 12 starts, and anything close to the form she showed downstate would make her a handful; #5 TIMELY TRADITION: Gets one more shot due to her proven affinity for this track. She’s another one dropping in class, and some of her best efforts have come here. If she’s at her best, she could provide some value; #7 SHASTA STAR: Hasn’t won in a while but did show improvement when second for a $50,000 tag in her first start for Robertino Diodoro. She drops back down the ladder here, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace.

R5

Cool Quest
Digital Future
Kawhi Me a River

#8 COOL QUEST: Tries turf for the first time, and there are plenty of indications that say he’ll love it. He’s turned in several strong workouts over the training track’s turf course, and Brian Lynch is incredibly astute in knowing when to go from dirt to turf with young horses; #1 DIGITAL FUTURE: Will likely be a pretty heavy favorite and makes sense after back-to-back seconds downstate. The blinkers go on, and he’s got enough early speed to where he shouldn’t be shuffled back along the rail; #5 KAWHI ME A RIVER: Comes in off of a long layoff and tries turf for the first time, but he’s bred to like it. He’s a son of Kantharos with several solid turf drills, and the 329 turf Tomlinson figure hints that he’ll have a chance if he’s ready to run off of the freshening.

R6

Waterville
Oak Loves a Fight
Cupere

#8 WATERVILLE: Exits one of the best 2-year-old maiden races on turf we’ve seen this summer. The top two runners may well show up in stakes races soon, and this one had a pretty adventurous trip. This seems like a softer spot, and I think she steps forward in a big way; #6 OAK LOVES A FIGHT: Rallied from last to finish third behind Derrynane, a nice horse that took some money in a stakes race last week. Two turns is a bit of an unknown, but if she takes to the route and gets a pace to run at, she wouldn’t be a shock; #5 CUPERE: Fetched $110,000 at auction last fall, and much of that could be because she’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Ivar. This barn is very patient, but it’s not like it can’t win with first-time starters, and she’ll have every chance to pick up a check if she runs to her bottom-side pedigree.

R7

Binkster
Gandy Dancing
Dark Money

#5 BINKSTER: Drops way down in class after finishing third in a classy optional claiming event earlier in the met. He’s hit the board in all five of his local starts, and these shallower waters could make it far easier for him to record his first win over this surface; #2 GANDY DANCING: Didn’t do much running in a turf experiment last time out, but goes back to the dirt and is another getting significant class relief. The recent bullet drill indicates he’s doing well, and he ran well over this main track twice a season ago; #8 DARK MONEY: Was very impressive two starts back, when he beat a similar-level field at this distance at Belmont. He’s since switched barns, but he has a win over this track and could benefit from an outside draw that may give Luis Saez plenty of options early on.

R8

Winter Pool
Hombrazo
Handy

#5 WINTER POOL: Just missed in the mud last time out and has steadily improved on speed figures in each of his outings. He’s shown he can go two turns without a problem, and a repeat of his last-out effort is probably good enough to win this; #4 HOMBRAZO: Had a weird trip last time out when fifth in the race my top pick exits. He was between horses throughout and didn’t have much running room when the field turned for home. He could certainly improve with a smoother trip, and I think it’s telling Irad Ortiz, Jr., got the mount again; #3 HANDY: Returns to the dirt after a failed turf try a few weeks ago and has more speed than he showed that afternoon. Jose Ortiz lands the mount, and I think he’ll be aggressive going into the clubhouse turn.

R9

Moretti (MTO)
Shamrocket
Ajourneytofreedom

#3 SHAMROCKET: Has been extremely consistent and has missed the board just twice in 17 lifetime starts. He was most recently third behind Cross Border in the Grade 2 Bowling Green, and he’s run well enough going 12 furlongs that I don’t think an extra panel will be an issue in the John’s Call; #4 AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM: Broke a long drought when he rallied to top a good optional claiming group last month. He did so while rallying into a pretty slow early pace, and he’s kept very good company since being claimed by Mike Maker last summer at Del Mar; #5 CONVICTION TRADE: Is the “other” Mike Maker trainee, and he had enough trouble at the start of his last race to where I’m drawing a line through it. He wants to be much closer to the pace, and his form over the winter was very good. If he’s back to that level, he could outrun his odds in a big way.

R10

Courageous Girl (MTO)
My Candy Girl
Kitten’s Romance

#11 MY CANDY GIRL: Draws a terrible post but has the early speed to be able to clear most of the field going into the first turn. She exits a pair of solid starter allowance races at Keeneland and Indiana Grand, and she was a good second at this level three starts ago at Aqueduct; #2 KITTEN’S ROMANCE: Is incredibly consistent and has run the same race pretty much every time since going to the Mark Hennig barn before her 2021 debut. Whether or not her Gulfstream Park form will transfer to Saratoga is anyone’s guess, but if it does, she’s certainly got the ability to win; #5 JAZZY LADY: Was claimed by Mike Maker last time out and was probably way too far back early on last time out. She has a history of finding trouble, and that’s not ideal, but she fits on speed figures and cannot be ignored in a wide-open Wednesday finale.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $981.90

My “Champagne and J.D.” co-host, J.D. Fox, is almost as passionate about Woodbine as I am about Saratoga, and Sunday’s card up there is a big one. It’s a 13-race program headlined by the Queen’s Plate, which is the first leg of the Canadian horse racing Triple Crown.

In celebration of the occasion, we welcomed four-time Sovereign Award-winning writer Jennifer Morrison to our newest show. We discussed this year’s Queen’s Plate and offered a trio of late Pick Five tickets. Multi-race exotics up there can be played in 20-cent increments, which provides room for coverage in wide-open races without forcing horseplayers to break the bank. 

You can watch the episode on our YouTube channel. While you’re there, hit the “subscribe” button so you don’t miss any of our weekly updates!

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: Triple Elvis was flat, Robin Sparkles tired, and my Pick Three and double plays went up in smoke. If there’s any consolation, it’s that the fifth-race surface switch cancelled my Pick Five and reduced losses to $21.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: It’s a fun card, and I’ll scatter my action across several races on the program. I’ll have $10 win wagers on #5 STROLLING in the third and #1 RHYTHM SECTION in the seventh. In addition, I’ll play $2 exactas in the fifth that key #6 SISTER’S GHOST and #7 THIEF OF HEARTS on top and use those two, #1 MISS PEPPINA, and #3 CAZILDA FORTYTALES in the second spot.

TOTAL WAGERED: $32.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Strolling, Race 3
Longshot: Thief of Hearts, Race 5

R1

Goddess of Fire
Time for Cupid
Saffron Moon

#6 GODDESS OF FIRE: Gets a tepid nod in the Sunday lid-lifter, a 2-year-old maiden race short on quantity but loaded with potential. This Todd Pletcher trainee is out of a stakes-winning sprinter, one that’s also thrown multiple Grade 1 winner Mind Control, and she’s been working well of late for the recently-enshrined Hall of Fame trainer; #3 TIME FOR CUPID: Was taken down in a hard-to-fathom disqualification at Lone Star Park, one where she was clear by nearly five lengths under the wire. That experience may help her, and Steve Asmussen clearly thinks highly of her if he’s shipped her up from Texas; #2 SAFFRON MOON: Is one of two first-time starters trained by Chad Brown, and I prefer this one to #4 DOVER DREAMS. This daughter of Malibu Moon sports an exceptional bottom-side pedigree, including second dam and Grade 1 winner Vacare (who herself is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Captivating Moon).

R2

Penny Saver (MTO)
Miss You Ella
Diamond Hands

#5 MISS YOU ELLA: Debuts going long on the lawn for Chad Brown and is bred to be any kind. This daughter of Declaration of War boasts a very strong female family, including third dam Hollywood Wildcat, who won an Eclipse Award and threw Breeders’ Cup Mile winner War Chant; #9 DIAMOND HANDS: Hammered for $425,000 at auction earlier this year and is out of a mare that won multiple stakes races at longer turf routes. She’s one of two in here for Christophe Clement, and the presence of Javier Castellano is noteworthy, as he doesn’t ride much for this outfit; #1 HIGHLY DEVAUXTED: Has some sharp works on the tab from her time at Keeneland and is out of a mare by Mizzen Mast, who’s a very strong turf influence. Additionally, if owner/trainer and husband/wife David Ingordo and Cherie DeVaux are naming a horse in this fashion, chances are it has some talent.

R3

Strolling
Eagle Pass
Storm Advisory

#5 STROLLING: Topped a similar-quality field here last month and merits plenty of respect running back at this level. He’s very popular at the claim box, and for good reason, as he’s won 10 of 35 career starts and two of his last three outings; #1 EAGLE PASS: Comes in off a bit of a freshening and won by daylight two and three back downstate. John Toscano doesn’t claim tons of horses, but he’s very astute and has a track record of success with new acquisitions; #3 STORM ADVISORY: Boasts a fitting name given the weather forecast for much of the northeast (stay safe, everyone!), and goes first off the claim for Dominick Schettino. He’s won twice this season when entered for a $16,000 tag, so a $20,000 claimer shouldn’t be too far outside his wheelhouse.

R4

Mia Bea Star (MTO)
What a Trick
Jades Gelly

#7 WHAT A TRICK: Makes her debut on this circuit after finishing third in a listed stakes race at Pimlico a few weeks ago. She’s shown an abundance of early speed, attracts top turf rider Jose Lezcano, and sure looks like the one they’ll have to catch turning for home; #2 JADES GELLY: Was declared a non-starter earlier in the meet, but she actually ran a bang-up race that day and was beaten less than three lengths despite a terrible beginning. Her two-back victory was sharp, and she certainly stands a big chance provided she gets a clean start; #8 LILLY SIMONE: Earned the diploma two back and just missed at this level and route last time out. The far outside post isn’t ideal, but she’d benefit from someone going with my top selection early, and if such a scenario materializes, the race shape will play right into her hands.

R5

Thief of Hearts
Sister’s Ghost
Cazilda Fortytales

#7 THIEF OF HEARTS: Ran into a very well-meant Brad Cox trainee in a starter allowance event several weeks ago. She drops back in for a claiming tag here, and a repeat of her impressive two-back effort at Churchill Downs would put her right there at a square price; #6 SISTER’S GHOST: Has a resume that looks far more impressive if you toss the races run over turf and synthetic courses. Her dirt races from earlier this year at Indiana Grand were solid, and I think she’s back to her preferred surface in this spot; #3 CAZILDA FORTYTALES: Looks like the main early speed in this heat and was a close-up second at this level in her first start for new trainer Orlando Noda. Manuel Franco rides back, and the cutback from seven panels to six could be a plus.

R6

Shanghai Shamrock
Lady Milagro
Landslid

#3 SHANGHAI SHAMROCK: Has had some tough trips against maiden special weight foes and drops in for a tag for the first time. It’s possible she’s a horse that seeks out trouble, but she’s shown potential in the mornings and may prove tough to deny with a clean start; #4 LADY MILAGRO: May not have appreciated the muddy going in her debut earlier this summer. The recent half-mile drill downstate jumps off the page, and it may show that she’s sitting on a significant improvement in her second start; #7 LANDSLID: Has run into talented 2-year-olds such as Kaufymaker and Happy Soul, and there are no such monsters in this spot. She may need to improve in order to contend, but the shallower waters should be much appreciated, and the cushy outside draw doesn’t hurt, either.

R7

Angkor (MTO)
Rhythm Section
Exult

#1 RHYTHM SECTION: Looks like the main speed in this 11-furlong race that will take place on the inner turf course. Lone speed is dangerous in any event on the inner, and he’s bred to want every bit of this distance. If he gets comfortable up front going into the stretch for the first time, look out; #6 EXULT: Has shown himself to be a consistent sort that runs pretty much the same race every time out. This is his first try at a three-turn distance, but he’s bred to handle it and has shown a very strong turn of foot in several starts against starter allowance foes; #5 BOX N SCORE: Came up a neck short when rallying from last in a similar event downstate back in June. The horse that won, Shamrocket, is a pretty good one, and it also helps that this one was a good third in a start at this distance at Aqueduct back in November.

R8

Him She Kisses (MTO)
Ahead of Plan
Kasim

#3 AHEAD OF PLAN: Hasn’t won since October of last year, but he did take a big step forward on the drop in class last time out. He was second beaten less than a length last time out. That day’s winner has since come back to win again, and it helps that he boasts a win at this route; #1 KASIM: Didn’t do much running last time out, but that was in an off-the-turf race and he’s clearly better on turf than on dirt. He’s a stakes-placed turf sprinter making his first start for Danny Gargan, who has achieved great success with runners first off the claim; #4 TOMATO BILL: Showed an affinity for the lawn with a win at Lone Star in May. He returns to the turf after finishing fourth in an off-the-turf race last month, and if he returns to the form he displayed two starts ago, he’ll have every chance in what seems like a wide-open turf sprint.

R9

Horologist
Gold Spirit
Dunbar Road

#2 HOROLOGIST: Did everything but win in the Grade 3 Shuvee, where she set a legitimate pace and just couldn’t hold off Royal Flag. She comes back at the same route in the Summer Colony, and she should be able to use her tactical speed to sit a great trip once again; #6 GOLD SPIRIT: Had every right to need her last-out effort, when she tired a bit to run fourth in the Shuvee. That was her American debut and her first start since June. She has every right to take a step forward here in her second start off the bench, and her two recent works here look pretty solid; #3 DUNBAR ROAD: May not be the same horse she was in 2019 and 2020, when she won the Grade 1 Alabama and Grade 2 Delaware Handicap (among other races). However, it’s not like she needs to take an impossible leap forward to contend here. If my top two selections make one another work early on, this one stands to benefit.

R10

Rudy Rod (MTO)
Tallis
Voter Protection

#5 TALLIS: Tries turf for the first time and is bred to love it. His dam, Isabella Sings, was a graded stakes winner on the lawn, and Uncle Mo has shown he can sire a turfer. Between the pedigree and the drop in for a $40,000 tag, I think there’s plenty to like in the Sunday finale; #8 VOTER PROTECTION: Hasn’t run since January and has been working at Monmouth for Chad Brown. These two items are red flags, but this is his first start in for a tag and his first try as a gelding. He may not need to move forward much to best this group; #2 EMPIRE ATTRACTION: Drew a wide post last time out and wasn’t able to save any ground. He gets a far friendlier draw here, and if his last start is any indication, he should be on or near the lead going into the first turn.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,002.90

When a song has a lyric about Saratoga, I automatically perk up, and this is the case whenever “You’re So Vain,” by Carly Simon, plays at my local grocery store as part of the music mix. It’s a classic song, but the more I listen to it, the more I keep coming back to the same conclusion.

If Warren Beatty, the only publicly-named subject of the song, is so vain he thinks the song is about him, he’s probably a jerk, and I’ll happily concede that point. However, since the song IS about him, isn’t he also correct? Carly Simon may have laughed all the way to the bank nearly 50 years ago, but Warren Beatty has probably had the song playing on a loop in his man cave, so who really won here?

If you liked that take, stay tuned for my “Taylor Swift is an evil genius” theory, coming soon to a bankroll section near you!

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Inevtabl Conection ran his heart out at a price in his debut, but he settled for second behind the second-race favorite I was trying to beat. I dropped $27.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the Grand Slam, which starts in the sixth and ends with a Wesley Ward-trained single in the ninth (the Skidmore). My $1 ticket reads as follows: 2,4,6 with 3,6 with 5,6,9 with 3. I think #3 KAUFYMAKER is going to be very, very difficult to beat in the Friday feature, and that the Grand Slam provides ways to extract some value.

TOTAL WAGERED: $18.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Kaufymaker, Race 9
Longshot: Mister Luigi, Race 8

R1

Hilliard
Fingal
Mr. Briggs (MTO)

#2 HILLIARD: Makes his first start for Mike Maker in the Friday opener, and I think he’ll respond favorably to the trainer switch. I also believe the likely race shape will work in his favor, and that leading rider Luis Saez will have him moving in the right direction when the field turns for home; #3 FINGAL: Jogged to an easy score in an off-the-turf race earlier in the meet and is slated to get back on the lawn here. His turf races have been fine, and he could sit a perfect stalking trip beneath highly-respected turf pilot Jose Lezcano; #4 CITY MAGIC: Is the “other” Mike Maker trainee and has shown plenty of early speed in the past. He should be on or near the lead early in this event, and at a minimum, that should keep the pace honest for his stablemate.

R2

Empire Lily
Makin My Move
Bells On Her Toes

#4 EMPIRE LILY: Debuts for Jorge Abreu, who can get a first-time starter ready to run as well as any trainer on the circuit. This filly’s dam was a multiple stakes winner who placed in a Grade 1 as a 2-year-old, and she boasts several strong four-furlong drills ahead of her unveiling; #6 MAKIN MY MOVE: Is another with an exceptional work tab, and she may go off favored in this competitive event for state-bred 2-year-old fillies. Her female family includes the dam of multiple graded stakes winner and sire Fed Biz, and she herself is kin to a strong turf stakes winner; #7 BELLS ON HER TOES: Debuts for a barn whose first-time starters often need a race to get going. However, this is also an outfit that wins races in bunches when it gets hot, and if the past week is any indication, everything Charlton Baker sends out will be worth a second look for at least the next few days.

R3

Market Alert (MTO)
Scocciatore
Three Outlaws

#5 SCOCCIATORE: Wanted no part of a two-turn mile last time out and cuts back to a sprint for this event. His two-back win going seven furlongs downstate was quite good, and he has enough speed to be prominent from the jump in a pretty wide-open event; #2 THREE OUTLAWS: Isn’t at his best over softer ground, so the yielding going wasn’t what his connections wanted to see last month. If the weather cooperates and he gets a firmer turf course, I think we’ll see a step forward; #6 SCUTTLEBUZZ: Was third in a classy mile event last month and cuts back to a sprint distance. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because he figures to be pretty far back early, and I’m not sure how much pace will materialize up front going into the turn.

R4

Roman entry
Clemenza
My Cousin Rich

ROMAN ENTRY: Merits respect in this maiden claiming event. I prefer #1 ABDAN, who cuts back to a sprint after tiring badly going two turns, but #1A RECIDIVIST has some form going short and makes his second start off a layoff for trainer Kelly Breen; #6 CLEMENZA: Makes his first start off the geld in this spot and has shown some early zip in starts at Monmouth at Aqueduct. Those are far different surfaces than Saratoga’s, to be sure, but this race is remarkably light on early zip and he could make a pretty easy lead; #3 MY COUSIN RICH: Drops in for a tag and hasn’t run a bad race going short on the dirt to this point. Despite the fact that his pedigree says he wants turf, he may have simply been a dirt horse all along, and he may not need to improve much to be a player here.

R5

Achilles Heel
Kingdom On Paws
Makart

#8 ACHILLES HEEL: Took a big step forward in his turf debut, when he rallied to be beaten just a neck in a paceless race. He has since been switched to the barn of Brad Cox, and further improvement in his third lifetime outing would make him tough to beat; #9 KINGDOM ON PAWS: Outran his odds when fourth at 36-1 last time out and gets a huge jockey switch to Joel Rosario. He’s bred to be a strong turf horse, and I think there’s a chance he’s getting to do what he wants to do; #6 MAKART: Didn’t do much running in his debut earlier this month, but his pedigree says he’ll like the turf and Mike Maker’s first-time starters aren’t always fully-cranked. Sire Klimt has had a few foals show talent on the grass to this point, and he may have learned something in his unveiling a few weeks ago.

R6

Singita Dreams (MTO)
Flighty Lady
Sister Otoole

#2 FLIGHTY LADY: Won her stateside debut in April before getting stuck behind a very slow pace in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico. This is a significantly softer spot, she’ll be receiving Lasix here, and this Group 3-placed filly has shown she can get a distance like this one; #6 SISTER OTOOLE: Topped allowance foes going a mile and a quarter last month, so this is another one for whom the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Luis Saez sees fit to ride back, and I think she’s got a bit more speed than she showed last time out, when she stalked from afar through a swift opening half-mile; #9 ENJOYITWHILEWECAT: Has won once in 15 starts since the beginning of 2020, but she’s had a history of strange trips and was a late-running fourth in the Grade 3 Modesty at Arlington. That came at this distance, and she moves up if an unexpected pace battle materializes going into the first turn.

R7

Lokoya Road
Road to Success
Gimme Some Mo

#3 LOKOYA ROAD: Is a tepid top pick in a puzzling $25,000 claimer. He was claimed out of his last effort by Juan Vazquez, who hits at a 20% clip with new acquisitions, and his lone two-turn dirt race to date was far from a bad effort, as he earned the second-best Beyer Speed Figure of his career in that spot; #1 ROAD TO SUCCESS: Earned the diploma last time out at Belmont and tries winners for the first time. This is a tough spot for the level, and the rail draw can be tricky, but he’s making his first start for Rob Atras, who has enjoyed a tremendous meet to this point; #6 GIMME SOME MO: Is certainly better than his last-out effort, when he showed speed and tired badly going long over a yielding turf course. He’s got plenty of early zip, Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Todd Pletcher, and this is the lowest claiming race he’s ever run for.

R8

Mister Luigi
Repo Rocks
Critical Threat

#6 MISTER LUIGI: Exits the Grade 2 Amsterdam, which was won by runaway winner Jackie’s Warrior. However, while this one ran fifth of six that day, he was beaten only about three lengths by runner-up Drain the Clock. This is a significantly weaker spot, and on speed figures, this Ghostzapper colt certainly fits; #5 REPO ROCKS: Was a bit one-paced when third against similar very early in this stand. He’s since been gelded, and that may help him focus in this spot, where he’ll need a clean trip in order to find the winner’s circle; #9 CRITICAL THREAT: Won first time out at Keeneland back in October but hasn’t been seen in the afternoon since then. However, Brendan Walsh does great work with horses coming off of long breaks, the Ellis Park works look very fast, and the first-time gelding and first-time Lasix news items cannot be ignored.

R9

Kaufymaker
Pure Panic
Barone Cesco

#3 KAUFYMAKER: Was highly-regarded enough to take money in the Group 2 Coventry at Royal Ascot, where she split the 17-horse field in eighth and was beaten just four lengths. She showed plenty of potential in her debut win at Keeneland, and the most recent turf work is a huge one; #8 PURE PANIC: Rallied to top fellow maidens in his debut at Ellis Park last month. That day’s runner-up was six lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and he’s since come back to win, which certainly seems to flatter this one ahead of the Skidmore; #1 BARONE CESCO: Led a field of maidens every step of the way earlier this month and tries winners for the first time in stakes company. I’m not sure he’s fast enough to break on top again, but the inside draw is a plus given his early zip and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes early and hangs on for a share.

R10

Gabby Squared
Sweet Mission
Exotic Cat

#3 GABBY SQUARED: Sure seems like she’s in a “now or never” situation in the Friday finale. She didn’t step forward much in her first try for a tag, but her two best races have come going two turns, and I think she’ll enjoy a return to that configuration here; #9 SWEET MISSION: Was one-paced when fourth against similar last time out, but she was claimed out of that race by Mark Hennig, who doesn’t reach in to take many runners. She finished just a head behind my top pick last time out, and she’ll likely be a far bigger price than that one; #4 EXOTIC CAT: Is a huge price but merits a look given a few races she’s come out of and her pedigree. She’s bred to want to go two turns, and she’ll do that for the first time in this spot. A little improvement may give her a shot to hit the board at a large number.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,029.90

I may be a handicapper, but I’m a journalist above all else, and I love a good story. Wednesday’s Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard Handicap delivered in spades, as The Mean Queen redeemed herself after one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen earlier this summer.

Just a few weeks after tossing jockey Tom Garner in the stretch, she kept her composure, rallied past stablemate Baltimore Bucko, and cruised home to win by daylight. Add in that trainer Keri Brion was a Sheppard disciple, and that she also trained Baltimore Bucko (who finished second in his first start following a Grade 1 score of his own in the A.P. Smithwick), and you’ve got something that was really, really cool to watch.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: We were washed out of our action, as the sixth race was moved off the turf. As a reminder, all wagers in this space assume races carded for the grass stay there.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: I have two opinions in the second race. The first is that #7 BIG SCULLY is an underlay at 7/5. The second is that #5 INEVTABL CONECTION might be a runner given his works at Delaware and a strong bottom-side pedigree. I’ll put $15 to win on the latter runner, and I’ll also key him in $3 exactas above and below first-time starters #1 PIPITO and #3 ST. LUKES.

TOTAL WAGERED: $27.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Gold Panda, Race 6
Longshot: Inevtabl Conection, Race 2

R1

Anna’s Fast
True Castle
Sweet Mia

#2 ANNA’S FAST: Ran too poorly to be true against far better competition last time out and drops back to the appropriate level here. She beat similar-level foes two and three back at Belmont, and I expect her to be prominent from the jump in the Thursday lid-lifter; #1 TRUE CASTLE: Has chased my top pick in each of her last two outings but has been working well since coming to upstate New York. She has tactical speed but doesn’t necessarily need the lead, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip; #3 SWEET MIA: Just missed in each of her last two outings and is another with a significant amount of early zip. She’s aggressively spotted by her new connections, but she gets a big rider switch to Joel Rosario that could move her forward.

R2

Inevtabl Conection
St. Lukes
Pipito

#5 INEVTABL CONECTION: Will likely be a price after shipping up from Delaware, but he has a strong bottom-side pedigree and a solid work tab. He’s a half-brother to multiple stakes winner Daddy Justice, his dam is kin to Grade 3 winner Lasersport, and his second dam is a full sister to stakes winner Marked Tree; #3 ST. LUKES: Comes in off of a big drill for Rudy Rodriguez, who doesn’t usually work his first-time starters very quickly. This daughter of Tapiture attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s ready to run; #1 PIPITO: Draws the rail in his unveiling but may be talented enough to overcome it. His work tab is as strong as any runner in the field. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his strong female family hints that he may be better on turf than dirt.

R3

Tenderness (MTO)
Smooth Pebble
Jasminesque

#7 SMOOTH PEBBLE: May have needed the last-out effort off a bit of a freshening and drops back in for a tag here. This is far from the strongest race for the level we’ll see this summer, and the Rosario/Clement tag team merits respect with turf sprinters; #9 JASMINESQUE: Rallied from last to first to top non-winners of two downstate and tries this condition for the first time. Her record looks far, far better if you simply toss the dirt races, and she ran well at this route when second against maiden claimers last summer; #6 JEN’S BATTLE: Drops back down the ladder after trying allowance company off the claim back in June. She hasn’t won in a while, but the presence of leading rider Luis Saez is a plus and perhaps the addition of blinkers will make a difference.

R4

More Moonshine
Misty Veil
Ice Princess

#5 MORE MOONSHINE: Debuted with an impressive score going seven furlongs and stretches out to two turns for her first try against winners. Her pedigree says the added distance won’t be an issue, and logical second-out improvement would make her a handful against this short field; #1 MISTY VEIL: Had a perfect trip when loose on the lead against starter allowance foes earlier this summer and may have also benefited from the muddy track. It’s also possible she’s been a dirt horse all along, though, and she’s got the early speed necessary to turn the rail draw into a strength; #2 ICE PRINCESS: Hasn’t won since February of 2020 and has been a beaten favorite in three of her last four outings. It’s possible she takes money again here, but this field came up heavier on quality than quantity, and at her likely price, I simply cannot endorse her on top.

R5

Silver Strand
Shalimar Gardens
O’Gotten Girl

#5 SILVER STRAND: Hammered for $575,000 two summers ago and sure seems to have come to hand for Bill Mott, judging by the flashy work tab. This daughter of Frosted looks ready to roll on debut, and drawing outside several other contenders should help her; #3 SHALIMAR GARDENS: Rallied to finish beaten a neck in her debut back in May, and that day’s runner-up came right back to win at next asking. She’s got a few solid local works, and Jose Ortiz and Horacio DePaz usually mean business when they team up; #1 O’GOTTEN GIRL: Has shown speed in several of her prior outings and should be forwardly-placed again here. However, she hasn’t run since February, she’s burned plenty of money to this point, and it’s tough to trust the form she showed over Aqueduct’s quirky surface.

R6

Gold Panda
V Pattern
Seizer

#2 GOLD PANDA: Ran reasonably well when third in his debut downstate, especially considering that trainer Charlton Baker’s horses often need a race or two to get going. He’s fired back-to-back bullets since that performance, and I’m expecting a big performance at second asking; #3 V PATTERN: Makes his first start since October for a patient barn that has connected at a 26% clip with similar stock. He’s been gelded since we last saw him, and perhaps he just needed the first-out effort; #1 SEIZER: Has been working consistently ahead of his debut, and one of those drills was the fastest five-furlong work of the morning on August 7th. His pedigree says he wants more ground, but this barn could be heating up and he may be good enough for a piece of it at first asking.

R7

Claytnthelionheart (MTO)
Shamrocket
Opry

#3 SHAMROCKET: Will likely go favored in a loaded optional claiming event that looks more like a stakes race. He most recently ran third in the Grade 2 Bowling Green behind Cross Border, and he’s shown he can run well going long distances. He’s a legitimate favorite and looks formidable; #4 OPRY: Could complete a 1-2 finish for Todd Pletcher, who also conditions my top pick. He hasn’t won in a while but was a close-up third going a bit longer here last month, and perhaps marathon distances are up his street; #1 OLYMPICO: Is another looking to break a long drought, as he hasn’t found the winner’s circle since the Grade 3 Fort Marcy in May of 2019. However, perhaps he needed his first race back off a long break, and he’s had a history of knocking heads with some very classy turf horses.

R8

Gambling Cat
Coworth Park
Battle Bling

#3 GAMBLING CAT: Has run three solid races in a row and closed well to be third last time out despite rating behind a pretty slow pace. She’s won going two turns before, attracts Jose Ortiz, and merits respect coming from the Mike Maker barn, which has been as hot as any outfit on the circuit this summer; #4 COWORTH PARK: Takes a significant drop in class after running third against allowance foes at Monmouth Park. Todd Pletcher’s Monmouth shippers usually don’t pique my interest, but this one may stand to benefit if the early pace is faster than expected; #6 BATTLE BLING: Showed some speed against better horses last time out in his first start after being claimed by Danny Gargan. She should capitalize on a likely race shape that seems to favor front-runners, and given her exploits on dirt, she may be the one to beat if this race is moved to the main track.

R9

Sadie Lady
Diva Banker
Awesome Debate

#1 SADIE LADY: Will likely be the odds-on choice in the Union Avenue, and for good reason. She’s in career-best form for a trainer having an excellent meet, and her usual race would likely produce a wire-to-wire victory at a very short price; #6 DIVA BANKER: Is wheeled back after a week and ran too poorly to be true last time out. Unlike many others in this race, she doesn’t need the lead in order to run well, and I think she could be moving the right direction late at a bit of a price; #5 AWESOME DEBATE: Won here over a sloppy track early in the meet but didn’t do much running when fifth at Finger Lakes in her most recent outing. When she’s right, she’s very tough, and at a minimum, she could provide some company up front going up the backstretch.

R10

Marvelous Maude
Abreu entry
Vivazano

#4 MARVELOUS MAUDE: Ran third in her debut downstate despite not breaking well in that spot. She rated behind a pretty slow pace that day, and I think she’s sitting on a significantly better effort in the Thursday finale; #1 ACUSHLA: Adds blinkers after showing no early speed in both of her prior starts to date. She’s made two significant moves in as many efforts, though, and perhaps the blinkers will put her closer to striking range in this spot; #12 VIVAZANO: Returns to the turf in her second start off the bench and may have enough tactical speed to work out a trip from a tricky far outside post. She ran reasonably well in her lone turf start to date and will at least have a long run into the first turn where she can establish position on or near the lead.