BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,029.90

I got back home at 1 am Pacific time Monday morning after last weekend’s whirlwind trip to the East Coast. When I woke up for work about seven hours later, I didn’t feel exhausted, or run down, or anything like that. Instead, I felt fulfilled thanks to seeing my family, visiting the Spa, and running into a bunch of people I hadn’t seen in quite a while.

I’ll remember every bit of that day for a really long time. It didn’t hurt that I picked five winners in print and made some money, but that honestly didn’t matter nearly as much as the other stuff. I loved seeing people I wanted to connect with (especially my mom and my dad, who I don’t get to see nearly enough), and I’m still laughing about my girlfriend’s experience at the Big Red Spring.

Ladies and gentlemen…my girlfriend at the Big Red Spring. #Saratoga pic.twitter.com/LvRb0dL6YK

— Andrew Champagne (@AndrewChampagne) August 14, 2021

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If you’re reading this and we met up, know that I appreciate it. I love where I live, and moving enabled me to do a lot of really cool stuff, but upstate New York’s home. It always will be.

SUNDAY’S RESULTS: This one hurt. Alpha Babe was my longshot of the day and ran a huge race in the finale, but came up a head short. That was the difference between a $120 profit and a $20 loss, the latter of which goes in the ledger.

WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: I’ll head to the sixth, which houses the latest longshot of the day. #4 LET THEM EAT CAKE ran a few sneaky races at this route last year and has been working well ahead of her second start off the layoff. I’ll key her in $5 exactas above and below #6 GAILHORSEWIND and #7 CROWDING OUT, and I’ll also have a $5 win bet on her as well.

TOTAL WAGERED: $25.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Clear Humor, Race 10
Longshot: Let Them Eat Cake, Race 6

R1

The Mean Queen
Baltimore Bucko
Gibralfaro

#6 THE MEAN QUEEN: Suffered one of the worst beats of the meet in the Kiser, when she dumped her jockey when well clear in the stretch. That jockey sees fit to ride back, which is noteworthy because he won a Grade 1 on the second choice, and I think she atones for the last-out sins in this spot, the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard Handicap; #3 BALTIMORE BUCKO: Wired the field in the A.P. Smithwick last time and should be on or near the lead in this spot as well. If there’s any hesitation here, it’s because of the jockey situation, but his best effort is certainly good enough to complete a Grade 1 sweep; #2 GIBRALFARO: Generally runs the same race every time out, and that effort is usually good enough for a piece of it. He’d stand to benefit if another went with Baltimore Bucko early, as that would set things up for his late kick.

R2

Free Enterprise
Cantrell Hill
Flat Out Beautiul

#6 FREE ENTERPRISE: Broke a long drought last time out, when he hung on at this route of ground. He drops a bit in claiming price, stays at his preferred distance (where he’s 2-for-2), and draws a cushy outside post; #2 CANTRELL HILL: Rallied for second here last month and generally runs the same race every time out. He’s got seven top-two finishes in eight 2021 outings and was claimed by Danny Gargan after his most recent effort, so there’s reason to expect him to be right there again; #3 FLAT OUT BEAUTIFUL: Hasn’t won in a while but has been running against much better horses for most of his career. He may not have taken to the mud at Belmont last time out, and the faster they go early, the better this closer’s chances figure to be.

R3

Morning Matcha
Monshun
Call Sign Charlie

#4 MORNING MATCHA: Was flying late last time out against similar and was third beaten just a length. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and further progression would make this filly a formidable favorite; #9 MONSHUN: Has been working well ahead of her unveiling and has a strong bottom-side pedigree. Her dam is a full sibling to stakes winner Flat Bold, and the presence of Joel Rosario and the outside draw are both big pluses; #7 CALL SIGN CHARLIE: Debuts for Jorge Abreu, whose barn enjoyed a stellar weekend. This outfit can certainly win with first-time starters, and the recent half-mile gate drill hints that this Mission Impazible filly may have some talent.

R4

Blewitt
Universal Payday
Heavy Roller

#3 BLEWITT: Finds himself in a pivotal spot, as he drops down significantly after being well-beaten by stakes-caliber horses in his last several starts. However, he sure seems like the lone speed in an otherwise paceless event, and if he’s ever going to get his mojo back, this seems like the spot to do it; #1 UNIVERSAL PAYDAY: Won at this route last summer and likely needed his last-out effort in which he was protected from being claimed due to the layoff. He goes back to two turns here, and a return to his mid-2020 form would give him a chance; #6 HEAVY ROLLER: Took a big step up into the $40,000 claiming ranks but didn’t run badly that day. He’s hit the board in five of six starts at this distance and could sit an ideal stalking trip at a bit of a price.

R5

Lemieux (MTO)
Vagaries
Diamond Hands

#8 VAGARIES: Fetched a bit more than $217,000 at the Tattersalls sale and, like most of Chad Brown’s acquisitions from that sale, is bred to want this route of ground. Her dam is a half-sister to Group 1 winner Mail the Desert, and she’s a tepid top pick in a fun 2-year-old maiden race; #3 DIAMOND HANDS: Hammered for $425,000 earlier this year and is bred up and down to be a good one. He’s by Grade 1 winner Frosted and out of a multiple stakes-winning mare, one who did most of her best work going long on the lawn; #2 SHINE: Is another expensive auction buy and has been working very well ahead of her unveiling. Her female family includes the dam of multiple stakes winner Icabad Crane, and the tab includes a recent bullet drill (which isn’t common for Bill Mott trainees).

R6

Let Them Eat Cake
Gailhorsewind
Crowding Out

#4 LET THEM EAT CAKE: Goes second off the bench and has been training very well ahead of a return to the turf. She ran well at this route a few times here last season, and her speed figures indicate she’s good enough to win this at a nice price; #6 GAILHORSEWIND: Adds blinkers for this event, which could help her focus and navigate a clean trip. That isn’t something she’s been able to do to this point in her career, but the equipment change makes sense and Jose Ortiz sees fit to ride; #7 CROWDING OUT: Will take plenty of money as a Chad Brown trainee in a turf sprint, but I have my doubts. She’s spent her time at Monmouth Park, and Brown’s Monmouth horses haven’t done a lot when shipping up to the Spa. At her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

R7

Cadeau de Paix
Chloe Rose
Bayshore Foxes

#3 CADEAU DE PAIX: Was second last time out behind a very well-meant runner and should get an ideal race shape in this spot. There’s a lot of early speed signed on, and this consistent mare does her best running from off the pace. She’ll certainly be moving the right way late; #5 CHLOE ROSE: Takes a big step up in class but has absolutely done her best running over this surface. She won for fun two starts ago before falling a half-length short last time out, and this claim box favorite will make her third straight start for a new trainer in this event; #1 BAYSHORE FOXES: Cuts back to a sprint after running second in a two-turn, off-the-turf event last time out. Her one-turn races have been fine, this barn means business here, and she may be talented enough to work out a trip from her tricky inside post.

R8

Seismic Wave
Taos
Hieroglyphics

#5 SEISMIC WAVE: Has a lot of back class and is my top pick in a $40,000 claimer that looks way more like an ungraded stakes race. He’s placed in several graded events, and while the inner turf course isn’t usually kind to closers, there seems to be enough pace in here to keep things lively early on; #1 TAOS: Is a very, very tricky horse to handicap. On one hand, he hasn’t run since May of 2020 and comes back for a tag. On the other, he’s been working very well for Danny Gargan, whose record with horses off of long layoffs is top-notch, and he has the speed to capitalize on the inside draw; #10 HIEROGLYPHICS: Does his best running at Saratoga, where he’s won in three of six local tries. He has every right to run well here despite the outside draw, and his best effort would put him right there.

R9

Averly Jane (MTO)
Derrynane
Flip My Id

#3 DERRYNANE: Ran to the billing when she cruised home as the even-money favorite in her debut last month. The recent bullet drill hints that she’s moved forward since that race, and this daughter of Quality Road and stakes winner Portmagee sure looks well-meant in the Bolton Landing; #4 FLIP MY ID: Boasts one of my favorite names of any 2-year-old I’ve seen this season and exits a solid debut at Belmont where she overcame a wide trip. This filly by Freud (hence the id reference) retains Irad Ortiz, Jr., and she should be able to save a bit more ground here; #9 CHI TOWN LADY: Debuted with a win at Keeneland back in April and exits a strong four-furlong turf drill on the training track. Wesley Ward-trained 2-year-olds can’t be ignored, and this one wouldn’t be a shock even though the pedigree hints she may want a bit more ground.

R10

Clear Humor
Multiple Expansion
Damilano

#1 CLEAR HUMOR: Ran well here when second at this level last month and was claimed that day by a 23% outfit. Luis Saez likely had several options, but he lands here, and I think the cutback to six furlongs will really help him (especially since this seems like a weaker group); #3 MULTIPLE EXPANSION: Was bet to favoritism in his unveiling going long on turf, but he didn’t run well that day against a group that wasn’t bad. He drops in for a tag and changes surfaces, and at least the workouts hint that he hasn’t lost interest after the first-out misfire; #6 DAMILANO: Has hit the board in each of his last two outings, and his record does look better if you toss the non-sprint races. His efforts over off tracks haven’t been bad, and maybe a faster surface will allow him to move forward.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,049.90

I took off from San Francisco at 12 am Pacific time Saturday, got two hours of sleep on the plane, and touched down in Hartford at 8:30 am. After a two-hour drive, I rolled into Saratoga and proceeded to have one of the most fun days at the track I’ve ever had.

After spending last season sheltering in place, the feeling I got walking past the jockey statues and strolling through the clubhouse and the backyard was beyond words. To everyone I ran into, and to everyone who made the day so special for my family and me: Thank you very much.

SATURDAY’S RESULTS: I scratched down to a single in the first leg of my Pick Five ticket, and that horse lost all chance at the break. I dropped $18.

SUNDAY’S PLAY: I’ll wait until the finale, as my longshot of the day seems live. #2 ALPHA BABE seems to have found a home on the turf, and I’m hoping we get the 10-1 morning line price. I’ll have a $20 win ticket on that one.

TOTAL WAGERED: $20.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Water’s Edge, Race 4
Longshot: Alpha Babe, Race 10

R1

Pickering Circle
John’s Protege
Silipo

#1 PICKERING CIRCLE: Almost certainly needed his debut effort and gets significant class relief in his second lifetime outing. George Weaver trainees usually improve with experience, and I really like the gate drill on July 24th, which was the seventh-fastest of the morning at that distance; #5 JOHN’S PROTEGE: Merits respect for Wesley Ward, who’s hit at an eye-popping 46% with first-time starters in for a tag. It’s a bit curious to see a recent turf work prior to a dirt race, but it’s not like this is an overly tough spot and he may not have to be much to win on debut; #8 SILIPO: Makes his debut here and may get some attention because his mother, Lisa’s Booby Trap, was a heck of a story (and a pretty nice horse to boot!). Rob Atras doesn’t have much in the way of first-out data, but the workouts seem fine and it wouldn’t be shocking to see he has some talent.

R2

Pletcher entry (MTO)
Kiss the Sky
Ansel

#9 KISS THE SKY: Was second in an off-the-turf event at Ellis Park last month and ships in for Mike Maker, whose charges must be respected when they’re led over. His pedigree is turf up and down, so him running well at first asking going two turns on dirt is especially noteworthy; #5 ANSEL: Had an eventful trip earlier in the meet when he broke slowly and got stuck rating behind a very slow pace. He may have needed that effort, though, and his work tab hints that he may have turned a corner ahead of his second start; #10 FLIP THE SCRIPT: Will need to work out a trip from an outside post but has every right to improve at second asking. He’s another that debuted in an off-the-turf race, and Tom Albertrani’s runners generally move forward with seasoning.

R3

Herald Angel
Sassy Melissa
Defy Expectations

#10 HERALD ANGEL: Drops in for a tag for the first time after a pair of efforts against allowance company downstate. Her connections saw fit to run her in a pair of stakes races at two, and she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure at this route of ground last August; #3 SASSY MELISSA: Has a record that looks far better if you simply toss every race that isn’t a turf sprint. She was an OK third last time out at this level, and that day’s runner-up has since come back to win. Jose Ortiz rides back, and I think she could be live at a price; #4 DEFY EXPECTATIONS: Looks like one of the main early speed horses in this heat and ran second against similar last time out at Belmont. That day’s winner won a race earlier this summer, and most of her misfires came against far better horses than what she’ll line up against here.

R4

Water’s Edge
Saratoga Pal
Quickflash

#1 WATER’S EDGE: Will likely be an odds-on favorite in here, and for good reason. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time out in an impressive, maiden-breaking score, and he faces many horses that have been at this level for quite a while. Anything close to the last-out effort should sink these; #4 SARATOGA PAL: Goes second off the layoff here and crushed a weaker group earlier this month at Finger Lakes. He ran a huge race here last summer to break his maiden, and his late-running style would give him a chance if the early pace is faster than expected; #5 QUICKFLASH: Hasn’t won in quite a while and stopped to a walk here earlier in the meet after dueling with a much-the-best winner. He gets the benefit of an outside draw here, and his usual race would likely get him a piece of the purse.

R5

Jester Calls Nojoy
Celestial
Midnight Stroll

#4 JESTER CALLS NOJOY: Gets a tepid top selection in a loaded 2-year-old maiden race. This daughter of Maclean’s Music doesn’t have a ton of bottom-side pedigree, but she’s zipped through a pair of four-furlong gate drills that certainly imply she’s a runner, and Todd Pletcher’s debuting runners are often well-meant; #9 CELESTIAL: Is another with a strong work tab, and in this case, it’s for Bill Mott, whose first-time starters don’t usually show that kind of speed. She’s a half-sister to champion 2-year-old filly Caledonia Road and stakes winner One of a Kind, though, so she has every right to be ready to roll right away; #5 MIDNIGHT STROLL: Hammered for $225,000 at auction and comes in off a very strong five-furlong move on August 8th. This filly’s pedigree is mostly turf, as her dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Coalport, but it sure looks like she’s working well, and the presence of Luis Saez is a big plus.

R6

Candy Monet
Roxen
Write This Down

#6 CANDY MONET: Drops in for a tag after chasing solid horses in two starts against state-bred maidens. She was up close early last time out, and that day’s winner came back to run well against allowance competition while the second and third-place horses ran 1-2 at this level; #10 ROXEN: Gets Lasix for the first time and exits a decent fourth at this level downstate. I’m far from crazy about the post position, but a repeat of her last-out effort would give her a shot, and if Lasix moves her forward, she could absolutely win this; #1 WRITE THIS DOWN: Was third against similar at Belmont and was claimed out of that race by Rob Atras. She may go favored, and the barn switch certainly helps, but closers breaking on the rail make me nervous, and so does the fact that last-out rider Joel Rosario isn’t aboard here.

R7

Business Model (MTO)
Never Explain
Future Victory

#7 NEVER EXPLAIN: Just missed last time out in a race that boasted several horses that also show up in this spot. He was very wide that day, draws a slightly better post here, and should be forwardly-placed in a race that seems light on early zip; #4 FUTURE VICTORY: Exits that common race and didn’t have a great trip there. Still, she was beaten less than four lengths, Irad Ortiz, Jr., sees fit to ride back for Todd Pletcher, and if there’s any sort of pace in front of him, he could run on late at a bit of a price; #10 SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY: Goes back to the turf after two tried in off-the-turf races at Belmont. He showed enough class last season to run fourth in the Grade 2 Pilgrim behind Fire At Will and Public Sector, and a return to his preferred surface may very well wake him up.

R8

Mongolian Humor
Absolute Love
Jessica

#4 MONGOLIAN HUMOR: Romped by more than four lengths at this route last month and gets a tremendous trainer change to Robertino Diodoro, who’s one of the best in the game with new acquisitions. A repeat of her last-out effort may well be good enough to win this, and I’m expecting improvement; #7 ABSOLUTE LOVE: Has turned into a “win type,” having found the winner’s circle in three of her last four starts. One of those victories came here going two turns early in the meet; the question is, can she be as effective cutting back in distance?; #8 JESSICA: Hasn’t run since May but has shown plenty of early zip and may make the lead by default here. Joel Rosario doesn’t ride much for this barn, and if she gets an easy lead, she could hang on for a piece of it at a pretty big price.

R9

Bye Bye
Wink
Goin’ Good

#8 BYE BYE: Took the Grade 3 Soaring Softly two starts ago and cuts back to a sprint distance in the Galway. She’s undefeated going seven furlongs or shorter on the lawn, and I love that she’ll likely sit just off the early speed before making her run at the top of the stretch; #3 WINK: Has won a pair of listed stakes races and was second in a Group 3 overseas late last year as part of Wesley Ward’s globe-trotting operation. She ran a clunker last time out at Churchill Downs, but she certainly seems like the main speed here and the 12-1 morning line price hits me as an overlay; #7 GOIN’ GOOD: Has six top-two finishes in seven career starts and won the off-the-turf Coronation Cup here a few weeks ago. She’s never run a truly poor race and should be right in the thick of it again here.

R10

Bayshore Foxes (MTO)
Alpha Babe
Summer in the City

#2 ALPHA BABE: Has found a new home on turf and earned her diploma last time out going a mile at Belmont. She rallied from seven lengths back to win that event, and I think she’ll be closer early on in the Sunday finale (which should help her given how the inner turf course has been playing); #3 SUMMER IN THE CITY: Didn’t seem like she enjoyed running at Belmont Park and drops in class for her upstate New York debut. Her one win came over a two-turn configuration at Gulfstream Park, so a return to a similar route could move her forward; #5 MIRABELL MEI: Hasn’t won in a while but returns to the claiming ranks after two starts against starter allowance foes downstate. The faster they go early, the better her chances figure to be, and top turf rider Jose Lezcano has been enlisted to ride.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,092.90

Thursday’s sixth included the type of antics that sometimes happen in races with full fields of inexperienced 2-year-olds. The stretch run featured plenty of weaving and bumping, and as a result, a lengthy inquiry took place before the result was declared official.

I give NYRA plenty of flack when it’s warranted, but in my opinion, the stewards made the right call by not making a change, both with winner Dufresne and the underneath horses. 2-year-olds are going to do things older horses won’t, and I’ve always felt that leeway should be given in those races with regard to calls that could go either direction. In this instance, unfortunately, a DQ of the winner would’ve benefited me immensely (I had 10-1 runner-up Cricket West, both in the pick box and in the wallet!), but that’s the way it goes sometimes.

THURSDAY’S RESULTS: In the words of my friend Laffit Pincay III, who hosted the second half of Thursday’s NYRA/Fox broadcast, “what just happened?” Hey It’s Tati was spun wide and ran out of gas in the seventh, while 38-1 shot Take It Off led from gate to wire. I dropped $30.

FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll attempt to extract some value out of likely sixth-race favorite #7 DOC DOC ROCK with both vertical and horizontal exotics. I’ll key her on top of $5 exactas that use #2 HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY, #5 SUE ELLEN MISHKIN, #9 ACE UP HER SLEEVE, and #13 MAKIN MY MOVE underneath. I’ll also single her in $5 doubles starting in that race and ending with #1 PURE BODE and #2 MORE GLITTER in the seventh.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Klaravich entry, Race 3
Longshot: More Glitter, Race 7

R1

Arms an Armor
Big Little Risk
Bielefeld

#1 ARMS AN ARMOR: Flashed some speed last time for a higher claiming tag and adds blinkers for the Friday opener. Saratoga’s main track has been playing very kindly to early zip of late, and the Santana/Asmussen tag team merits plenty of respect; #7 BIG LITTLE RISK: Has been gelded since his last outing and goes turf to dirt in this spot. They’ve certainly found a soft one for him, and the presence of Luis Saez is noteworthy, but his one dirt start to date wasn’t overly impressive and I can’t put him on top at his likely price; #8 BIELEFELD: Has certainly had plenty of chances but goes back to the dirt, which I feel is his preferred surface. He ran a few respectable races over the main track here last summer, and perhaps the change in footing will wake him up at a price.

R2

Liveyourbeastlife (MTO)
Summer to Remember
Price Talk

#5 SUMMER TO REMEMBER: Has shown plenty of back class and has been competitive in several tries against stakes competition. He’s also got some tactical speed, which should be used as a weapon in a turf race that seems light on early zip; #2 PRICE TALK: Ran several strong races a season ago and may well go off favored in this spot. However, while he hasn’t disgraced himself in a pair of 2021 outings, he’s also burned plenty of money, and while this is a class drop on paper, it came up pretty salty for the level; #7 HYPERFOCUS: Almost certainly didn’t care for the dirt last time out and goes back to the grass in his first start off the claim by Linda Rice. His prior connections ran him in three stakes races earlier in his career, and he’d stand to benefit if the early pace is sharper than expected.

R3

Klaravich entry
Evvie Jets
Satch

KLARAVICH ENTRY: Both #1 COALITION BUILDING and #1A INFINITE POTENTIAL could win this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the two-horse entry took enough money to go off odds-on. They should both move forward with class relief, and this will be a popular multi-race exotics single; #10 EVVIE JETS: Goes back to the turf after running a decent third in an off-the-turf event at this level last month. She made a big middle move two back at Belmont and has some back form from 2020, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see her run well here despite the outside draw; #4 SATCH: May need a race but has enough pedigree to suggest she could be a runner. She’s a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Unchained Melody, her dam was a Grade 3 winner on the lawn, and Hall of Famer John Velazquez sees fit to ride.

R4

Air Show
Six Pack
Likeable

#4 AIR SHOW: Has not run a bad race since being claimed by Tom Amoss in April. He was most recently second in an allowance event at Indiana Grand, and those races have gotten far more competitive over the past few years; #3 SIX PACK: Makes his first start off the claim for George Weaver, who’s been a bit unlucky this meet. The barn’s won just once, but has six seconds, so it’s not like horses aren’t running well. This is his first try against winners, but there are no monsters here; #5 LIKEABLE: Takes a concerning drop for these connections after appearing in a few graded stakes races. Yes, this owner/trainer combination can be aggressive, and his best race would probably win, but why has a $350,000 purchase that ran in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile been gelded and dropped in for a $40,000 tag?

R5

A Mo Reay (MTO)
Halo of Fire
More Than Vows

#12 HALO OF FIRE: Needs some luck to draw in off the AE list but must be respected if she runs. She sports several strong turf drills here, and her dam is a half-sister to seven winners. The presence of Joel Rosario is also a positive; #1 MORE THAN VOWS: Debuts for Brian Lynch, whose runners sometimes need a race to get going, but she boasts a series of eye-catching drills that imply she’s got significant potential. Her pedigree says she’ll take to the turf, and she may be talented enough to overcome the rail draw; #5 LIA MARINA: Is bred up and down for the turf and merits respect, although the pedigree also says she may want two turns, not one. Her dam won multiple stakes races on the lawn, and her second dam also threw Avenge, a two-time Grade 1 winner that ran third in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

R6

Doc Doc Rock
Makin My Move
Howdyoumakeurmoney

#7 DOC DOC ROCK: Ticks plenty of boxes and is a logical favorite in what seems like a stacked 2-year-old maiden race. The Pletcher/Velazquez tag team appears with this daughter of Into Mischief that doubles as a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Daring Duchess; #13 MAKIN MY MOVE: Will need at least three scratches to run but can’t be ignored if she gets in. She put forth a strong bullet drill on July 26th over the training track, and this isn’t a barn with many 2-year-olds that work like that. If she runs, she’s worthy of inclusion; #2 HOWDYOUMAKEURMONEY: Sold for $105,000 earlier this year despite sire Freud commanding only a modest $5,000 fee. That may be a clue this filly can run, and she’s been working steadily ahead of her unveiling for a very capable outfit.

R7

More Glitter
Pure Bode
My Lips Are Sealed

#2 MORE GLITTER: Merits respect solely because this is her first start for Mike Maker, who’s won plenty of races to this point in the meet. She stretches back out to a mile in this wide-open allowance race for New York-breds, and some of her best efforts have come going long; #1 PURE BODE: May have needed the race last time out, and it didn’t help that she hooked an extremely well-meant Bill Mott trainee that day. She was fifth that day but finished less than two lengths behind the runner-up, and I’m expecting a step forward here; #11 MY LIPS ARE SEALED: Showed the way early last time out as an even-money favorite before dropping anchor and finishing eighth of 12. She’s certainly better than she showed that day, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., is noteworthy, but she may have her work cut out for her clearing the field from that far outside post.

R8

Ragtime Blues (MTO)
Noble Emotion
Shekky Shebaz

#3 NOBLE EMOTION: Has emerged as a serious turf sprinter with two impressive wins in as many starts. Two of his four wins have come at this route of ground, he draws well, and while this is certainly a class test, I see no reason to expect a step backwards; #1 SHEKKY SHEBAZ: Is winless since Jason Servis received a visit from the FBI, but he ran well here last time out when second in a similar spot. He may not be the horse he was when he ran third in the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, but he’s still pretty fast and merits plenty of respect; #9 COMPETITIVE SAINT: Made his 2021 debut last month and was third in the same race Shekky Shebaz exits. He’s never been worse than third in three tries at this route, and it helps that he’s shown an ability to pass others late, which could help if another runner confronts Shekky Shebaz in the early going.

R9

Foolish Ghost
Bon Raison
Wondrwherecraigis

#6 FOOLISH GHOST: Exorcized some demons (see what I did there?) with a winning performance in a classy renewal of the John Morrissey earlier in the meet. Something seems to have clicked with him this year judging by his speed figures, and he gets a cushy outside draw in the Tale of the Cat; #3 BON RAISON: Didn’t do much running last time out in his 2021 debut, which came off a layoff of more than seven months. However, he’s a stone closer in a race that seems to boast plenty of speed, and trainer Jack Sisterson has done plenty of damage with big prices this summer (thanks again, Lexitonian!); #5 WONDRWHERECRAIGIS: Ships up after posting a 102 Beyer Speed Figure against weaker competition at Pimlico. Stakes competition, though, isn’t new to him, as he was fourth in last year’s Grade 2 Amsterdam behind Yaupon when that one was going very well.

R10

Well Done West
Joey Loose Lips
Profusion

#9 WELL DONE WEST: Is one of two logical favorites that seem to loom large in the Friday finale. He’s never finished off the board in four starts, and if the back-to-back bullet drills are any indication, he’s been thriving in upstate New York for a very sharp outfit; #1 JOEY LOOSE LIPS: Was sent to the front a bit early last week, and that move nearly paid off as he ran a tough-luck second. He cuts back to a seven-furlong trip here, and while the sudden class drop is an eyebrow-raiser, it’s encouraging to see Irad land here when he probably had a few options; #6 PROFUSION: Has run one poor race since coming off a long layoff, and that was in a turf route downstate. Going one turn on dirt sure seems like what this gelding wants to do, and he was a clear second last time out at this level.

BANKROLL

BANKROLL: $1,122.90

There are some things I genuinely miss being 3,000 miles from upstate New York, and an event coming up later this month is one I’m gutted I can’t get to. The National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame is collaborating with ThoroFan to host a trivia night on Monday, August 23rd. Tom Durkin (the greatest horse racing announcer of my lifetime and, as hard as this is to believe, an even better human being) will be the master of ceremonies, and tickets can be purchased online.

This is a convergence of many things I love. I’m a trivia nerd that single-handedly killed a weekly sports trivia night at the dearly-departed Tompkins Square Bar and Grill in Los Angeles by winning every week for a month straight, and being a Hall of Fame voter is one of the great honors of my career. It hurts I can’t be there, and if you’re in the area, I urge you to head across the street and enjoy the fun.

WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS: My early Pick Five fizzled in the opener, and Miss Delicious dropped anchor in the stretch of the seventh. I dropped $32.

THURSDAY’S PLAY: This one’s as straightforward as it gets, because I really like #11 HEY IT’S TATI in the seventh. I’ll have a $30 win bet on her, as I think she’s in line to take a big step forward beneath new jockey Jose Ortiz for new trainer Orlando Noda.

TOTAL WAGERED: $30.

ANALYSIS/SELECTIONS

Best Bet: Hey It’s Tati, Race 7
Longshot: Daufuskie Island, Race 1

R1

Convertible Freese
Daufuskie Island
Gimmedamoney

#8 CONVERTIBLE FREEZE: Looks well-meant in his unveiling and is a tepid top pick in the Thursday lid-lifter. His works from the gate look very sharp, the outside draw is a plus, and this barn is hitting at nearly 40% this summer as of this writing; #3 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND: Sports a very strong worktab for Jeremiah Englehart and boasts a strong bottom-side pedigree. His dam was a stakes-winning sprinter, and she’s already thrown five winners. Watch the board early in the wagering, as that may provide clues; #2 GIMMEDAMONEY: Flashed speed when second in his debut, which came over a muddy track here last month. I’m not sure what he ran against that day, but a step forward is logical at second asking for a barn that’s won a bunch of races already at this stand.

R2

Daria’s Angel (MTO)
Candy Flower
Five Alarm Robin

#4 CANDY FLOWER: Takes a significant class drop in her first start for a very aggressive outfit. She’s shown plenty of early zip against better groups, and a return to form could see her wire this group; #2 FIVE ALARM ROBIN: Has done her best running in upstate New York and pulled off an 11-1 upset last time out in her 2021 debut. That day’s runner-up has since come back to win, and she figures to do her best running late; #7 WHIMSICAL MUSE: Thumped a lower-level group at Churchill Downs last time out and has been working well ahead of this event. She’s won four of nine career turf starts, attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., and completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Maker, who also trains my top pick.

R3

Mrs. Orb
Simply Ravishing
Espresso Shot

#5 MRS. ORB: Has not run a poor race in more than year and rallied from way back to top open company in a stakes race at Pimlico. She’s back against New York-breds in the Saratoga Dew, and it sure looks like there’s plenty of pace in here to set up for her late kick; #2 SIMPLY RAVISHING: Was retired earlier this year after dropping anchor in the Grade 1 Ashland, but she’s back here after a failed breeding attempt. She’s been working well enough, and this is certainly a spot that provides some class relief, but there are logical questions about if she’ll be ready for this race; #4 ESPRESSO SHOT: Has shown she doesn’t particularly care for Belmont, so she may benefit from a change in scenery. She was second behind a sharp horse in a start at this route last summer, and she’s run well at this level in the past.

R4

Spungie
Chocolate Cookie
Light in the Sky

#5 SPUNGIE: Has gotten better with every start since coming north from Gulfstream and cruised to a runaway score in a first-level allowance race last month. When Bill Mott gets horses on the right track, they tend to stay there, and further improvement would make her a real handful; #1 CHOCOLATE COOKIE: Had a nightmarish trip in her 2021 debut here last month, when she didn’t break well and was forced to rate behind a very slow pace. A cleaner journey, plus some added sharpness second off the bench, would give her a big shot; #4 LIGHT IN THE SKY: Has never finished worse than second in five starts over this turf course and was a close-up second last time out at this level. She’s very consistent and always seems to fire, so she can’t be ignored.

R5

Key Point
Cozzy’s Attitude
Pepe’s Pride

#9 KEY POINT: Is by top sire Into Mischief and has a terrific bottom-side pedigree. His dam is a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-winning sprinter American Anthem, his second dam is kin to champion Banshee Breeze, and he’s been working well for Chad Brown; #7 COZZY’S ATTITUDE: Probably needed his debut last month, as he comes from a barn whose first-time starters usually aren’t ready to roll. He’ll add blinkers and retain Joel Rosario, and I think both of those are positives; #2 PEPE’S PRIDE: Makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez and boasts a very atypical work tab. Many of his drills are on the slower side, but his four-furlong move on August 7th jumps off the page and hints that he may have some talent.

R6

Let Her Inspire U (MTO)
Cricket West
Pimenova

#6 CRICKET WEST: Debuts for a barn that has quietly done stellar work with first-time starters and has a sneaky pedigree. Her second dam won multiple graded events, and her dam is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Charm the Giant and Grade 2-placed runner Charming Legacy; #7 PIMENOVA: Hammered for $200,000 last year at Keeneland and has several flashy drills on the tab. If she runs to those works, she’ll have a big chance, but this barn’s numbers with firsters (especially on turf) hint that she may need a race to get going; #10 SKYWARD PRINCESS: Will take money simply because she’s a Chad Brown trainee, but I have doubts. She spent a lot of time at Monmouth Park, which is often a red flag, and I’m far from crazy about the post position, which may ensure a wide trip given the short run into the turn.

R7

Hey It’s Tati
Flying P entry
Thief of Hearts

#11 HEY IT’S TATI: Has been competitive in a few starts at this level and gets a big trainer switch to Orlando Noda, who does strong work with new acquisitions. In addition, Jose Ortiz has been enlisted to ride. I’m expecting improvement, and she may not need to move forward much at all to beat this bunch anyway; FLYING P ENTRY: I prefer #1 HOLLYWOOD GINA, who drops back in for a tag after not doing much running against starter allowance foes. Her two-back victory was pretty good, and I certainly think she’s better than she showed back in June; #2 THIEF OF HEARTS: Chased a fast pace against a better group in a race won by exciting prospect Kaely’s Sister. I liked her a bit that day, I’m not willing to completely give up on her, and she’s got enough speed to not be compromised by the inside draw.

R8

Letmeno
Briefcase Bully
Mihos

#4 LETMENO: Has run several very good races around one turn, and a repeat of any of those races could get him home here. He’s got tactical speed, but he doesn’t necessarily need the lead in order to run well, so Junior Alvarado should have plenty of options out of the gate; #3 BRIEFCASE BULLY: Has two wins and a runner-up finish in three dirt starts and was second behind my top pick last time out at Ellis Park. He’ll likely do his best running late, and this barn has had several horses ready to run already this meet; #2 MIHOS: Was third in a similar race at this level and route earlier in the meet and is logical, but he hits me as an underlay at his likely price. 

R9

Beautiful Karen (MTO)
Fractorzation
Uncle’s Gem

#6 FRACTORZATION: Has had some adventurous trips in her career but looks like the most probable early leader in a race light on gate speed. Jose Ortiz should be able to get her comfortable and in a prime position, and that sort of trip should move her forward; #1 UNCLE’S GEM: Tries winners for the first time after topping maidens at this route earlier in the meet. She could be a prospect to watch, but that day’s runner-up and third-place finisher came back to run 1-2, but that was in a maiden claiming event, so I’m not exactly sure she beat much; #10 SNICKET: Can’t be left off of vertical exotics tickets given her six top-two finishes in seven turf starts. However, her lone win came in a dirt race at Aqueduct, and she has a habit of finding trouble. Perhaps blinkers will cure that ill, but I can’t use her on top given her clear affinity for earning minor awards. 

R10

Abaan
Incitatus
Group Hug

#12 ABAAN: Draws a terrible post, but is bred like a turf horse and should improve in his first start on the lawn. His recent half-mile turf drill earned a fast clocking, and it helps that he’s shown he can go two turns; #6 INCITATUS: Makes his first start for a tag and has also been gelded since his last effort, which came in May at Churchill Downs. He’s shown speed against better groups, and if he’s able to get comfortable, he could lead this bunch a long way; #4 GROUP HUG: Goes back to the turf after finishing a distant third in a race rained off the grass last month. His lone turf try in February at Gulfstream wasn’t bad, as he was a solid second against maiden special weight foes. A similar effort would give him a puncher’s chance in the Thursday nightcap.